Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 10, 2023

Ukraine SitRep: 'Mosquito' Tactics - S-200 Land Attacks

The U.S./NATO doctrine, as it had been taught to the Ukrainian units that were prepared for the counter-offensive, has failed.

As a comment allegedly made on a forum of veterans of the West Point Academy describes it:

Classic attacks under our combat regulations involve the preliminary suppression and destruction of enemy defensive positions by artillery and aircraft, as well as the simultaneous destruction of its combat controls to the depth of the defense zone and the prevention of the approaches of its reserves. Since Ukrainians have almost no aviation and they are significantly inferior to the Russians in the amount of artillery, classic attacks lead to nothing but a massive loss of expensive military equipment on the way to Russian positions, disorganization and demoralization of attackers with subsequent retreat. Almost three weeks of such attacks could not break through the Russian support band, in addition, as I was told by the G-3 from USAR EUR-AF in Stuttgart, they lost up to a quarter of our Bradleys, and they are now forced to urgently send two companies of Bradleys and a large quantity of other equipment to replenish and restore the combat readiness of two brigades of the Ukrainian strike unit.

When I was in officer school, pre-1991, NATO was less dependent on air-superiority than it is today. We also had some good air defense systems. Our artillery was not superior to the Soviet one but was well layered - from short, medium to long ranged systems - and would have created very significant damages. We also had good pioneer equipment that allowed for the crossing rivers and ditches as well as serious mine fields.

All this changed after the 1991 Gulf war in which U.S. air superiority and tank fist destroyed the Iraqi defense forces. That war was misconstrued as a big win when it in fact was simply the effect of a by far superior professional force over a unmotivated conscript army with old and often defunct weapons.

As an effect of the first Gulf war and later operations in Serbia, Afghanistan and again in Iraq the believe in NATO air-land doctrine was reinforced. Air superiority was the holy grail while the strong land force capabilities atrophied. An emphasis on guerilla suppression and on vehicles that could withstand simple improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Iraq and Afghanistan further unbalanced the force.

It explains why the Ukrainian troops were miss-trained and miss-equipped for a counter-offensive even when the opposing force was a much harder to crack one than some goat herders from Helmand, Afghanistan.

The Ukrainian combined-arms-warfare units, without air-support and little artillery, were defeated. Western mining equipment failed to clear real 20 kilogram anti-tank mines from the heavy Ukrainian grounds. Armored Ukrainian troops were destroyed in mine fields (video) well before they could reach their targets.

Seeing that the tank heavy concept was failing the Ukrainians switched to a much older and more bloody technic:

In these conditions, our guys, together with Ukrainian commanders, developed tactics of “mosquito” promotion: continuous attacks of Russian positions by small tactical groups of Ukrainian infantry. The Russians, who are much more sensitive to losses in manpower, try to prevent close (“contact”) battles and retreat when Ukrainians reach their trenches, allowing artillery to destroy the enemy. This usually succeeds: Ukrainians die or retreat. But this tactic has a positive effect. Several such attacks almost completely destroy the Russian position, most often with their own fire, after which the Russians are forced to retreat to a new line, where this tactic is repeated. That’s how in two weeks the Russians were pushed back three miles from Makarov’s strategically important position. And this tactic is constantly improving. Our side believe that, at the continuing pace of such progress, in two weeks Ukrainians will be able to overcome the Russian support band and start storming their main line of defense, while maintaining the offensive potential of their strongest brigades. Perhaps that’s what General Milley meant yesterday about the ten weeks of the Ukrainian offensive.

This tactical technique has another important effect. Russians are forced to spend more artillery shells to repel such “mosquito” attacks, the stocks of which they replenish more slowly than they spend. And in two weeks of such battles, they may well approach the depletion of their stocks. Of course, this leads to great losses of Ukrainians but, as I said at the beginning, they are not sensitive to the death of their soldiers. In addition, advances however small are a better justification for their death than unsuccessful attacks. And here, we must admit that the Russians today are much closer to the armies of Western countries than the Ukrainians are in this respect: the Russians take care of their soldiers ...

The "mosquito" technic replaces losses in armored vehicles will more heavy losses of infantry. The 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, which had led the fight on the western part of the Zaporozhia front, has just been pull back from the front line because it had lost too many of its soldiers.

After the Russian lost a few trenches to storming Ukrainian troops that did not care for their own losses they modified their own tactic. Its troops still leave the forward trenches when under pressure but they now booby-trap those before taking off. These videos show how Ukrainian troops jump into an empty Russian trench only to be blown up by several small explosions. The Russian's need no artillery to do that. The trenches are kept intact but for a number Ukrainian corpses that can easily be moved aside.

A few days ago the Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner said in an interview (in German) that Ukraine had deployed all but four of its twelve reserve brigades that were supposed to be the armored counter-offensive fist that would defeat Russian defenses. Since than the 116th, 117th, and 118th Mechanized Brigades, part of last reserve, have been deployed near the Zaparozhia front. They will replace the 128th and other units that were mostly destroyed while gaining only a few kilometer in the sparsely inhabited countryside. Half of Milley's ten weeks of counter-offensive operations have passed with no relevant gains for the Ukrainian side. The next five weeks will likely destroy the rest of the battle ready Ukrainian forces.

Another change has been made in long range fire capabilities on the Ukrainian side. Yesterday it launched several S-200 missiles against the Kerch bridge and other Russian targets. The Russian side says that all these attacks were defeated by its air-defense forces.

The S-200 is an air-defense missile first deployed in the mid 1960s. Unlike the Nike-Hercules and S-300 it does not have inherent land attack capabilities. Its original targeting system is unable to steer it towards certain points on the map:

The missile uses radio illumination mid-course correction to fly towards the target with a terminal semi-active radar homing phase.

The Ukrainians, likely with some foreign help, must have developed and tested a completely new targeting system to give the S-200 some land attack capability. Its maximum range of about 300 kilometer is sufficient to attack strategic targets on the Russian side. But even standard Russian air-defenses have no problem with it.

That this was even tried, shows again the hybris of western military thinking. Like 80 years ago there is still a believe that Russia is, economically and militarily, incapable of defending itself. Please read Conor Gallagher's latest piece on this:

Underestimate Russia at Your Own Risk: A Comparison of Hubris by Germany During WWII and Today’s Collective West

NATO's doctrine is still depending on air-superiority. It lacks infantry and good tanks. It constantly underestimates Russian capabilities.

How would the real fight look if it had to overcome the superior Russian air-defenses while depending itself on system like the very expensive Patriot with a poor record of hitting anything but its own forces?

Posted by b on July 10, 2023 at 14:56 UTC | Permalink

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“Our side believe that, at the continuing pace of such progress, in two weeks Ukrainians will be able to overcome the Russian support band and start storming their main line of defense […]”

Isn’t that in all of its concretion one of the saddest and most poetic lines that has ever been written about an ongoing war?

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 10 2023 15:12 utc | 1

So, who's the one using human wave tactic, now? This is totally crazy. That they're actually doing this when assaulting not even the main defense line itself but just advanced trenches is pure lunacy, if not downright mass-murder of its own people.

As for unmotivated Iraqi army back in 1990, it reminds me that they actually conscripted some poor Kurdish guys, let them go through a few weeks of training, then told them they were going for manoeuvre training way outside Kurdistan, in the desert. Then one day, after a full week of marching in the heat, their officer turned to his troop and told them "Good, you're now part of the liberation army who's freeing Kuwait and reintegrating the province into Iraq". Kind of the same shtick that was used (for a shorter time) with Wagner troopers who were supposed to just "move camps" when in fact they were going to Rostov and then Moscow. No need to precise that the entire Kurdish battalion surrendered without firing a bullet (or maybe firing a bullet on their own officer) as soon as an American came close.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 10 2023 15:13 utc | 2

And to think the side using "mosquito" tactics was accusing Russia of "human wave" attacks when they now say Russia is adverse to losses...

Posted by: leaf | Jul 10 2023 15:17 utc | 3

Excellent b !

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 10 2023 15:18 utc | 4

Clueless Joe | Jul 10 2023 15:13 utc | 2, WRT "...using human wave tactic..."

There is an interview with a Russian p.o.w. at the latest Simplicious, which suggests that the Ukrainian troops are using p.o.w.'s as mine detectors!

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/azov-commanders-return-6th-column

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Jul 10 2023 15:23 utc | 5

Looks like the Ukrainian offensive has pretty much failed. Yet, reading the Western MSM one gains the impression that the AFU is winning on the battle field.

Yet, the Western militaries know that Ukraine is pretty much defeated without air support.

The NATO Vilnius Summit begins on the 11th of July.

No doubt the USA and its NATO vassals will further escalate the conflict using the Vilnius Summit as a springboard. The escalation could take the form of NATO membership for Ukraine, the provision of F-16s and longer range missiles to Ukraine, the activation of article 5, and/or the commitment of individual NATO countries activating their direct military support to Ukraine.

We don't yet know the exact form nor the schedule of the coming escalations. Yet, they will come. And there will be a Russian response.

Posted by: young | Jul 10 2023 15:44 utc | 6

I was very struck, in reading the Simplicius piece, as referenced e.g. in Lantern Dude | Jul 10 2023 15:23 utc | 5, how close the end for Ukraine is getting. It's not a way away in the future, but very possibly quite soon. The best was the reference to Biden's interviews, where he admitted not merely that Ukraine was running out of ammunition, but that the US was low. So when this offensive runs out, as it is bound to do in another month or so, nothing more can be done, before some theoretical point years away. And I'm not sure the US is going invest financially in creating sufficient ammunition production, just for this war.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 10 2023 15:45 utc | 7

Are you not being entertained?

"...Of course, this leads to great losses of Ukrainians but, as I said at the beginning, they are not sensitive to the death of their soldiers...advances however small, are a better justification for their death...And here, we must admit that the Russians take care of their soldiers..."

Posted by: S Brennan | Jul 10 2023 15:53 utc | 8

On Sweden, Turkey and NATO: Stat controlled television in Sweden are headlining two pieces “can we stop sucking up to Erdogan now?” and “why won’t anybody get tough on Erdogan?”.
Seems the government has given up on this meeting and is trying to send the big boys down on Turkey by painting them as pussies.
Since Turkey has the only capable military on European soil outside Russia, good luck with that…

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 10 2023 15:54 utc | 9

10 million Ukranian citizens living in EU and England these days. Around 1/2 arrived 2014-2021. and around 1/2 arrived in 2022-2023.

How many of these 10 million are liable for conscription into Kiev‘s military ?

Posted by: Exile | Jul 10 2023 15:56 utc | 10

These Kiev tactics start resembling Mao's "human waves" during the Korean war. Human as in not-CCP big shots: some animals are more equal. WWI was also a meatgrinder for plebs, some 'elite' troops lost their lives too, by misconception or mistake.

The price of materialism and totalitarianism is too high. "Lie flat" is what exhausted Chinese do: do nothing.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 10 2023 15:57 utc | 11

The Red Army had completely halted the German advance on the north side at July 10th 1943 during the operation Citadel. Than two days Battle of Prokhorovka in the south direction. 80 years later we awaiting Operation Kutuzov?!?

"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce."
Karl Marx

Posted by: Wolle | Jul 10 2023 15:58 utc | 12

thanks b.... your post parallels simplicius post from last night..

it is such a shame this is all happening, but perhaps it will be a wake up call to the west.. i doubt it.. how does the west process all this, moving forward?? they are incapable of seeking a resolution on anything other then their own terms.. do they have to destroy all of the ukraine army, and nato countries mercenaries to come to terms with reality?? obviously zelensky is just following orders from his usa-uk friends, but at what point does this devils relationship end disastrously, for either zelensky, or the usa-uk leadership? it seems inevitable based on the degree of hubris on display..

so, what is the next fork in the road? this one is huge and yet, there is no leadership capable of calling it quits... i suppose the nato meeting in vilnius tomorrow will be a lot of gnashing of teeth and stupid political statements that bare no relationship to reality..

Posted by: james | Jul 10 2023 16:00 utc | 13

Young no. 6

But are we not led to belive no country can gain NATO membership if they are currently engaged in a war.?

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 10 2023 16:01 utc | 14

The sheer unashamed disregard for Ukrainian troops.

The casual dismissal of their lives.
Yeah but soon the Russkies won't have any more artillery shell's.
Add in the cluster munitions as well that's all that is left in the warehouses folks!
Sweet Jesus.
What can you honestly say?

Posted by: jpc | Jul 10 2023 16:02 utc | 15

I was very struck, in reading the Simplicius piece, as referenced e.g. in Lantern Dude | Jul 10 2023 15:23 utc | 5, how close the end for Ukraine is getting. It's not a way away in the future, but very possibly quite soon.

The war will last until there's no more money to be made from it, or the Ukrainians themselves overthrow their puppet "leaders". Or they run out of cannon-fodder.

I feel so sorry for the average Ukrainian, who has no desire to suppress his Russian neighbours, but is being forced to risk his life and limbs for the ambitions of the Anglo-American empire and his ethno-supremacist government.

Posted by: Observer | Jul 10 2023 16:06 utc | 16

Re: Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 10 2023 16:01 utc | 14

There is no way Ukraine will join NATO this year or anytime soon.

Hungary (and many others) will be giving a BIG FAT NO to that idea.

Posted by: Julian | Jul 10 2023 16:08 utc | 17

Biden having admitted that the US is running out of 155 caliber artillery ammo, should tell us that the NATO cupboard is running dry..When the Ukies have to start using sticks and stones, it may end...

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 10 2023 16:10 utc | 18

Lantern Dude - 5
Yeah, I read about that allegation of sending Russian POWs as human mine clearance appliances. That would be a war crimes of quite a high order - well, using civilians would be even worse, but that's quite far gone enough as it is. You'd rather expect ISIS or SS divisions to rely on that kind of tactics, not the "Defender of Freedoms" and "NATO hopeful".

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 10 2023 16:12 utc | 19

The war will last until there's no more money to be made from it, or the Ukrainians themselves overthrow their puppet "leaders". Or they run out of cannon-fodder.

Posted by: Observer | Jul 10 2023 16:06 utc | 16

You failed to get my point, which is expressed more shortly by pyrrhus | Jul 10 2023 16:10 utc | 18

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 10 2023 16:13 utc | 20

Desert Storm was a big victory in the sense that, as bush sr celebrated, they overcame "Vietnam syndrome" and made war cool again. The real victory was making americans less afraid of killing and siphoning from other countries without a massive casus belli.

Posted by: Hrughus | Jul 10 2023 16:15 utc | 21

Julian no. 17

I was hoping someone would say that. Thanks Julian.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 10 2023 16:15 utc | 22

@ Jörgen Hassler | Jul 10 2023 15:54 utc | 9

Seems the government has given up on this meeting and is trying to send the big boys down on Turkey by painting them as pussies.
Since Turkey has the only capable military on European soil outside Russia, good luck with that…

Well, they can always burn another Quran, for a good measure.
How would Turkye go to the war against Sweden? Via Russia and Baltics?
I can imagine Putin opening a corridor or two there for Erdo. Not bad.

Sweden will lose neutral supremacy by joining NATO. And a mountain of money. too.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 10 2023 16:17 utc | 23

There was a discussion a few days ago of David Swanson of World Beyond War and his list of 30 supposed ways Russia could have avoided the invasion of Feb. 2022. I bring it up again because that organization is one of the few that seems to be working in a serious way to finding non-military solutions to international conflict, and I supported it in the past for its efforts. They also recognize that the war is a U.S.-provoked proxy war, which makes for an even weirder disconnect when they nonetheless blame Russia for the invasion. I am working on a rebuttal to his 30 reasons to send to WBW and CounterPunch (likely to be ignored by the latter, St. Clair called me a liar last time I wrote). Basically I think there are two problems: For many of them, Russia tried repeatedly and failed. E.g., Minsk agreements, requests and then demands for indivisible security, etc., which he somehow ignores. The second one is straight from the elementary school playground. While there are surely theoretical ways to stop a bully that don't involve punching them in the nose, in my school and probably a lot of others that was the only way that worked reliably in the real world. For example, it would be nice if all the kids in the school could get together and non-violently resist the bully and his gang. It could actually work if they cooperated to defend each other, ostracized the bully, etc., like some flocks of birds do to predators. What doesn't work: when your mom tells you to just ignore the bully. What also doesn't work in lots of schools: telling the teacher or principal (U.N.), when the authorities are in the pocket of the bully. The point is, Swanson is demanding of Russia actions that can only work if there is solid international support. Russia could have wielded economic sanctions and pipeline shutdowns against Ukraine and Europe, but only as part of a unified front. Would any other country have joined in their sanctions? Even China? Meanwhile, there is a serious stink of liberal hypocrisy when Russia and not the U.S. is tagged as the perpetrator of the war. If a bully provokes a war, shouldn't you start by condemning the bully? Instead of blaming the victim?

Posted by: TM | Jul 10 2023 16:33 utc | 24

NATO countries have od'ed on air superiority since it allows domination without boots on the ground in the Middle East and central Asia. It is easier to sell war to the public if Travis down the street doesn't come home in a body bag. What this war is showing is that cheap counter measures such as drones make large military assets such as tanks and ships vulnerable. Air superiority fighters are beyond the means of the typical victims of the west but drone based countermeasures, which use cell phone technology are not.

Posted by: Mike Price | Jul 10 2023 16:43 utc | 25

Laguerre #20, your replies might make you feel good, but you're just taking up space and not being helpful!

Posted by: DiggerDan | Jul 10 2023 16:48 utc | 26

ThusspakeZarathustra @ 14

But are we not led to belive no country can gain NATO membership if they are currently engaged in a war.?

RESPONSE: The USA has no regard for any existing NATO rules. The USA put NATO together and they run it. The USA makes the rules and changes them whenever needed for their purposes.

It's this very arrogance that will lead to the end of the USA.

Posted by: young | Jul 10 2023 16:51 utc | 27

25
It is easier to sell war to the public if Travis down the street doesn't come home in a body bag.

The lesson of Viet Nam. Don't show the dead soldiers on tv. It provokes antiwar sentiment. The power brokers, the warmongers hate antiwar sentiment and they'll do anything to curtail it. It's just about dead in the USA. Highly successful in quashing it.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 10 2023 16:51 utc | 28

At this point the US/NATO SHOULD be thinking about how a NATO force would fare in an all out attack against the Russians in Ukraine. NATO doctrine if first obtain air superiority, but Russia has the best AD in the world. How many pilots is NATO willing to lose to get control of the skies? 100? 200? Or more? And is it a sure thing that NATO would get air control? I don't think so, I think Russia can destroy most of the West's airplanes with their AD. Without air superiority, the West has no chance against the Russian ground forces, which have established support networks, layered defense lines and the combat experience. And now most of the NATO countries are using up their weapons/ammunition stocks and don't have enough for their own defense. Western military analysts know that Ukraine is on the road to defeat, and most NATO countries aren't willing to accept large losses in their militaries, with the exception of possibly Poland and Lithuania. Yet the West continues in its denial.

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 10 2023 16:54 utc | 29

Lantern Dude | Jul 10 2023 15:23 utc | 5

To send in Russian Pows, to clear a minefield, is a typical Finnish trick from 1942, they did that,
but were post war punished for it, of the Allied´s war crimes tribunal. Then ´they hide arms
for 30 battalions ,(30.000 men) 1944, in spite of the cease-fire agreement, and 1.800 Finnish officers went to jail for that, think this will soon be a Ukrainian project. Rookie-states work that way, it take centuries to establish a stable nation, by the laws, most people know that, but some will use, abroad and domestic the chaotic "new" nations, for their own purposes, as proxy tools. EU is as involved in this war as Nato, the two sides of one coin, the €uro, but good they showed their cards, its not a peace-project, its about to fight Russia.

Posted by: Reader | Jul 10 2023 16:54 utc | 30

> When I was in officer school, pre-1991, NATO was less dependent on air-superiority than it is today.
When you were in officer school, FPV kamikaze drones and remote controlled reconnaissance quadcopters were not used that much.
Those little toys are real game changer.

Posted by: hopehely | Jul 10 2023 16:55 utc | 31

Russia has used small units of infantry to feel out Ukrainian artillery positions for a long time now. I think ukraine is just copying it for their offensive.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 10 2023 17:03 utc | 32

USA/NATO/Ukraine heading directly to oblivion at terminal speed. They have collectively pushed their own self-destruct button. Every passing day further confirms this conclusion.

Posted by: JustTruth | Jul 10 2023 17:05 utc | 33

Laguerre #20, your replies might make you feel good, but you're just taking up space and not being helpful!

Posted by: DiggerDan | Jul 10 2023 16:48 utc | 26

So that made you feel good did it? My point was a serious one.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 10 2023 17:12 utc | 34

In WWI - Spring 1918, German Army made significant advances using new tactics of Storm Units. It was a different tactical approach to attacking fortified zones.

Any Barflys have insights

Posted by: Exile | Jul 10 2023 17:18 utc | 35

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 10 2023 17:03 utc | 32

You are thinking of probing attacks, that’s normal in war and has been practiced by both sides. The current Ukrainian tactic seems to be to send small groups of soldiers to occupy positions you know they cannot hold.

That’s different, and I believe it would be illegal in most militaries. Criminal neglect. You would be court martialed.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 10 2023 17:35 utc | 36

There is no way Ukraine will join NATO this year or anytime soon.

Hungary (and many others) will be giving a BIG FAT NO to that idea.

Posted by: Julian | Jul 10 2023 16:08 utc | 17

Would it matter if NATO declared them a member tomorrow?
I mean, does anyone actually think that Russia will just turn around and run away if that happens? And what would NATO do if Russia just continues its SMO in Ukraine? Or extends it?

Most NATO members cannot do more for Ukraine than they currently are doing. Unless they are willing to send nuclear bombs. In which case the Ukraine war would come to a really quick end. And not in favor of NATO or Ukraine.

Posted by: Martina | Jul 10 2023 17:35 utc | 37

I don't believe it's the Ukrainians that are careless of the lives of their soldiers, it's Milley and his ilk. With as many soldiers lost in Ukraine as the US lost in both theaters in WWII, it gives new meaning to the phrase 'fight to the last Ukrainian'.
What soldier would follow a blinkered butcher like Milley into battle?

Posted by: Carol Davidek Waller | Jul 10 2023 18:08 utc | 38

Posted by: Martina | Jul 10 2023 17:35 utc | 37

I hope you don't mind my heading this comment as a reply to yours, but after having read b's post, along with the first 30 or so comments, I decided to have a quick look at The Guardian's Ukraine coverage (for the first time in a couple of weeks) to get a feel for what b.s. is being pushed by the servants of the western oligarchs. Anyway, I happened to see this two-day-old article by Simon Tisdall (one of the paper's main foreign affairs commentators), headlined: Defeat for Ukraine would be a global disaster. Nato must finally step in to stop Russia (apologies if this article has already been discussed in earier threads).

Apart from this article being in full, delusional fantasy mode from go to whoah, Tisdall is calling for NATO to "provide enhanced air, missile and drone defence without “joining the war”." He also quotes Anders Rasmussen as raising the prospect of Poland and the Baltic states sending ground troops to help fight Russian forces on Ukrainian soil, depending on the outcome of Vilnius.

When reading this kind of tripe, I am struck by how completely these "experts" are divorced from reality. And when I say "completely" I mean completely. But it does go some way to explaining why so many in the "western bloc" are convinced that Russia is headed for a humiliating defeat. And why the rest of the world looks on in disgust and disbelief.

In closing, allow me to quote Tisdall's biggest clanger (IMHO):

Even when sober and with the wind behind it, Russia’s blundering army could not beat Ukraine’s 2nd XI. For all his threats, Putin fears Russia-Nato conflict, too. For him, it would be political and military suicide.

Read it and weep.

Posted by: tawharanui | Jul 10 2023 18:15 utc | 39

Carol Davidek Waller | Jul 10 2023 18:08 utc | 39

Guys like Austin and Milley amaze me. They must know the truth but they keep coming up with the same BS. I don't know how they live with themselves. They must think they're doing right by the USA.

Posted by: dh | Jul 10 2023 18:16 utc | 40

Exile @ 10

10 million Ukranian citizens living in EU and England these days. Around 1/2 arrived 2014-2021. and around 1/2 arrived in 2022-2023. How many of these 10 million are liable for conscription into Kiev‘s military?

Likely none, better question, how many are going to become like the Cuban population in Florida and become a powerful, determining, fascist power block in UK and European politics for the next century?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 10 2023 18:16 utc | 41

TM #24

Good to see someone else has looked over the Swanson list. I agree with your points. Share here if you manage a substantive response. Swanson’s idea that Russia should have acceded to a massive incursion by Ukraine military into Donbass and towards Crimea so as to gain the “moral high ground” is the epitome of wooly-headed thinking. No responsible power would allow itself to be put on the back foot like that, and allow such a difficult military situation to occur. It as well has seemed obvious since 2014 that NATO first expected and then eventually provoked a Russian “invasion”. NATO long-term planning has been based on a new Cold War, not on an actual direct war.

Anecdotally, this war appears to have high support amongst western persons who have previously held informed antiwar / anti-NATO positions. I cannot explain either their current enthusiasms, or the self-righteousness by which they point fingers at Russia.

Still, I don’t see a big escalation here. Based on official announcements, NATO will continue to add troops and equipment to its “eastern flank”, based on the dubious theory that Putin seeks to “recreate” the Soviet Empire. Ukraine will become a “failed state” and the Russians will be blamed and left with the pieces. Like Syria, the west will introduce sanction punishments against Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Posted by: jayc | Jul 10 2023 18:19 utc | 42

These Kiev tactics start resembling Mao's "human waves" during the Korean war. Human as in not-CCP big shots: some animals are more equal. WWI was also a meatgrinder for plebs, some 'elite' troops lost their lives too, by misconception or mistake.

The price of materialism and totalitarianism is too high. "Lie flat" is what exhausted Chinese do: do nothing.


Posted by: Antonym | Jul 10 2023 15:57 utc | 11

What are you spouting about? The Chinese barely had any weapons but still fought the Americans to a stalemate. And Mao's eldest son died in that war.

Posted by: Al | Jul 10 2023 18:23 utc | 43

@36 Jorgen

I see. Still though it doesn't seem russia tries to get it back they seem to be walking back to the first main line, so I think ukraine is holding them. The cost though in lives must be discouraging I would think.

Given the minefields and now cluster bombs I'm not sure Russia will pay the price to advance back through there either.

I'm assuming they're thinking of something coming from the north, behind this bomb ridden front, but nothing is developing yet.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 10 2023 18:25 utc | 44

TM | Jul 10 2023 16:33 utc | 24--

Your objections are quite correct, and as usual it's Swanson and company who are wrong. I wrote rebuttals to his op/eds Common Dreams published of a sort other commentators were always in agreement with that finally got me banned in 2016.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 18:32 utc | 45

“The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition”- Joseph Biden, ASIA TIMES- 10 July 2023
Need we say more about prospects for the UAF?

Posted by: posa | Jul 10 2023 18:48 utc | 46

No doubt the USA and its NATO vassals will further escalate the conflict using the Vilnius Summit as a springboard. The escalation could take the form of NATO membership for Ukraine, the provision of F-16s and longer range missiles to Ukraine, the activation of article 5, and/or the commitment of individual NATO countries activating their direct military support to Ukraine.

We don't yet know the exact form nor the schedule of the coming escalations. Yet, they will come. And there will be a Russian response.

Posted by: young | Jul 10 2023 15:44 utc | 6
------------------------------------------------------
Mr. young, escalation is the name of the game in the West, it is the Western Christian way.

As Ron Jacobs said in a rare anti-imperialist article published by Counterpunch (today): "When certain lines are crossed, the nature of other things becomes clearer. Providing cluster bombs to the Ukrainian military is such a Rubicon. The pretense that the NATO sponsored forces have some kind of moral high ground in their conflict with Moscow is fading quickly." Jacobs went on to point out that providing a weapon banned by most governments in the world is too much for "humanitarian" warmongers, "retired Vermont senator Patrick Leahy together with current senator Jeff Merkley acknowledged as much in a recent opinion piece in the newspaper of the warfare state, the Washington Post. (7/8/2023)".

I was listing to radio in my truck yesterday and Wesley Clark was defending the use of cluster bombs by saying that the Russians have been using cluster bombs through the entire conflict (I paraphrase from memory). Really, that is the first time I heard that. But of course, Wesley Clark, a former of NATO Commander during the Serbian conflict, is a liar and a war criminal. His mother should have named him Weasel Clark.

Jacobs ends his article with this statement: "As I write this piece, I cannot help but wonder what those liberals, progressives and leftists who have supported Ukraine’s military since the Russian 2022 invasion are now thinking. As this war drags on, I wonder if those who consider the Kyiv’s nationalist war to be one of national liberation and therefore deserve to get any kind of weapons are okay with this addition to Ukraine’s arsenal. I truly hope this latest escalation is causing them to reconsider their position. Before the next one is forced upon Europe and the world."

Anyone who visits this site and disagrees with Jacobs is a trolling weasel who supports US/NATO imperialism, there is no if, ands. or buts.

I question the argument that the US and the NATO bloc countries have run out of 155MM missiles, I think that the cluster ammo is just an excuse for Biden to escalate the conflict (long range missiles and F-16 will be next) in Kiev's favor because they are losing the war badly, and fuck the children, farmers, and other civilians who may die or be disfigured for many years to come after the war ends: Russia MUST lose before the next US presidential election.


Posted by: Ed | Jul 10 2023 18:48 utc | 47

@ TM | Jul 10 2023 16:33 utc | 24

i don't know this swanson guy, but i share your viewpoint.. your quote is a nice way to frame it - "If a bully provokes a war, shouldn't you start by condemning the bully, instead of blaming the victim?" exactly... i also agree with @ jayc | Jul 10 2023 18:19 utc | 43 and @ karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 18:32 utc | 46 comments directed to you.. thanks for your post.. if you can share your rebuttal to this swanson doofus - please do..

Posted by: james | Jul 10 2023 18:53 utc | 48

@ Ed | Jul 10 2023 18:48 utc | 48

thanks ed... i too question the argument as you do in your last paragraph.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Jul 10 2023 18:57 utc | 49

Russia was initially positioned to counter mass vehicle and tank assaults, with concentrated minefields on most likely vectors of advance, well placed tanks for ambush, ATGM squads (act as "scouts" also in frontal areas of defensive trenches). AFU pulled their vehicles back, use them several km away from the defensive trench to drop off the infantry squads. They may try to use terrain, or night to advance to the trench. If they capture a trench, they will try to then bring forward their artillery and tank support and consolidate that area effectively shifting that front.

AFU started using more dispersed and small-unit tactics, most likely it can be countered also with a more dispersed defensive tactics. It requires more dispersed minefields, a bit more dispersion for those forward ATGM or sniper squads to cover more area. Dispersed tactics mean there is no critical mass to punch through any sort of stiff resistance, it is supposed to overwhelm the enemy through sheer coverage of more area. But RU sees that, there's no reason why they wouldn't adapt.

The AFU reserves are those armored vehicles they save with this tactic, so RU needs to maintain a reserve force capable of countering whenever AFU decides to commit their armored vehicle (anywhere their infantry-only group manages to capture a trench).

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 10 2023 18:58 utc | 50

The price of materialism and totalitarianism is too high.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 10 2023 15:57 utc | 11
-------------------------------------------------------
But! But! Joe fucking Biden is a thesis of the Catholic persuasion who supports Nazis in Ukraine. E

Posted by: Ed | Jul 10 2023 19:09 utc | 51

Ed @ 48

I question the argument that the US and the NATO bloc countries have run out of 155MM missiles, I think that the cluster ammo is just an excuse for Biden to escalate the conflict

I agree, they've been stockpiling this shit for the last 78ys, the USA military budget is ~$1 trillion/yr if you include all the black ops, the EU if I got it right is ~1.2 trillion/yr, year over year, granted 90% is stolen, waste, and luxo living for the MICs but they are not running out of anything, it's all about escalation till Russia breaks.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 10 2023 19:10 utc | 52

Posted in article. "Under estimate Russia at your own risk."

Just shows you to this day, how they still believe Russia cannot produce anything.

Nice little article b ...Thanks.

Posted by: heavymetal101 | Jul 10 2023 19:14 utc | 53

At their conference in Vilnius tomorrow, NATO chaps were well to draft their terms of surrender to Russia, to include their own dissolution of NATO.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 10 2023 19:18 utc | 54

Well if this is a forum on West Point thinking, it doesn’t say much for their training, methods or principles. Their complete indifference to troop and equipment losses is frankly reckless, not to say embarrassing and short-sighted. Wouldn’t want these callous, blinkered fools defending my country. They are obsessed with gaining territory – even the smallest ground - just a trench now counts - to the exclusion of all else – the ability to hold it, support it, its wider or strategic context. They can pretend this ‘mosquito-bite’ tactic developed in consultation with Ukraine commanders but we all know who’s really running the show – and demonstrating an utter lack of imagination or even competence. Wow. Massive Fail.

Posted by: Gerry Bell | Jul 10 2023 19:19 utc | 55

unimperator @ 51

The Pentagon is convinced Russia will run out of men and weapons if they just stick too it, it's the Golden Billion vs 160 million Russians, how can they lose? That's why the blanket crackdown on dissent in the west is so over the top, blocking even mild dissent from their own political and business elites. That's why they are still pounding countries like India, Egypt, Turkiye that have ignored sanctions. No wavering, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. That's it, the neocon monolithic, focused, battering ram mind.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 10 2023 19:21 utc | 56

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 10 2023 18:25 utc | 45

On a few occasions they manage to hold it. But what mostly is that the Russians saturate the area with artillery and take back the position they just left. So the whole thing starts over again. The only tangible result is a lot of dead Ukrainians. Which is to be expected, since you can’t beat artillery with infantry. That’s why the ones giving the orders would be considered criminal in most militaries.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 10 2023 19:22 utc | 57

This could be misdirection by US too. It seems farfetched that the US has almost run out of artillery munitions. The Ukraine military may be all but done, however let's not forget the Poles, Germans, and Brits. Erdogan has in a manner shown his colors so it is not beyond possibility that Turkey may shore up NATO forces, although dumb to do so.

Posted by: Áobh O'Sheachnasaigh | Jul 10 2023 19:23 utc | 58

Posted by: james | Jul 10 2023 18:57 utc | 50
-----------------------------------------------------

Thank you for your comment james. As a leftist myself, I find it had to believe that anyone who considers themselves left of Hitler cannot understand the complete imperialist role of Joe Biden. Eric Draitser is an "independent" political analyst and host of Counterpunch Radio who supports Biden and his proxy war against Russia. His latest radio program is called "A Leftist Response to the US Supplying Ukraine with Cluster Bombs." He says he opposes cluster bombs, but he supports the Biden war. Does he oppose F-16s? He has no respect for Russians speaking southern and eastern "formally" Ukraine. The right to join an offensive war alliance. i.e., NATO is worth a few hundred thousand lives. But is he a lefty or a weasel? I say weasel.

Posted by: Ed | Jul 10 2023 19:28 utc | 59

re: tanks and Ukraine.


German Rheinmetall CEO in a CNN interview announces timeline for new tank factory in Ukraine, (in 3 months)
German article

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/rheinmetall-eroeffnung-panzerfabrik-in-der-ukraine-steht-unmittelbar-bevor-li.368020

original interview source:

CNN
"Rheinmetall will build and repair tanks in Ukraine, says CEO"

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/business/rheinmetall-german-tank-factory-ukraine/index.html

excerpt

"(...)
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of current President Vladimir Putin, has said Russia would retaliate by hitting any facility Rheinmetall set up in Ukraine, Reuters has reported.

Papperger said that the factory could be protected from a Russian attack.

“There are a lot of factories at the moment which are producing military goods [in Ukraine]. It is just another one — and we can protect that also,” he said.

Ukrainian forces have struggled to make major gains in their counteroffensive launched a month ago, in part, because of the Russian army’s air superiority.

For now, Papperger said, sourcing more ammunition was a bigger priority than building more tanks.

Rheinmetall would ramp up its annual production of artillery rounds from 100,000 to 600,000 next year, and much of that extra output would be earmarked for delivery to Ukraine, he said.

In theory, he added, Rheinmetall could provide 60% of the artillery ammunition Ukraine needs.
(...)"

Apart from the fact that he appears rather arrogant considering that Ukraine once was a top tank producer - not sure what to make of it.

Lets assume they build that thing.
Then there is a telephone call between RU and US where the Russians say redploy your people we will hit that factory.

(They had no problem hitting Coca Cola´s factory. Which btw is the reason why we have run out of mini-cokes as served on airplanes. Those were produced in Ukraine.)

Being serious again - why would the Russians accept it?
Why would Rheinmetall believe Russia would let that happen?
What is this? PR? Provocation?

Posted by: AG | Jul 10 2023 19:43 utc | 60

It's criminal what the west is doing to enrich themselves. The old queer Lynsey Grahm the faggot senator is just loving it. Disgusting!

I've heard in many posts and rumors that the Elensky regime is sending young boys 14yo+ and old men 45+ into the furnace without proper training or weapons. They litter the battlefields of Ukraine in dead bodies.

It's no wonder the Biden regime had to steal the election in 2020 for this reason, to enrich Blackrock/Vanguard and themselves for the useless deaths of many Ukro and Russo for another jewish war.

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 19:45 utc | 61

@ Ed | Jul 10 2023 19:28 utc | 60

All those, so called 'lefty ideologues' people, from the Diem25, Varufakis, Zizek etc. sort, are for this war at the USA disposal, since the day one.
I had really hard time, apart from a few, to learn that nor NATO nor the USA are involved and that it is right to help Ukraine as it is being invaded in an unjust war.
I question when, not if, the RF wins this, how would those well paid establishment supported earthworms crawl out, and start defending the RF. Wait and see.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 10 2023 19:49 utc | 62

What is this? PR? Provocation?
Posted by: AG | Jul 10 2023 19:43 utc | 62

I think so.

During the Second World War, Germany relocated armaments factories to mines, for example; something like this would also be conceivable in Ukraine. However, it seems to me that "the project" will not last too long, just like Ukraine.
So a lot of PR, winning investors, collecting money and ... Too bad, we didn't expect that. We are really sorry that you lost your money.

Posted by: 600w | Jul 10 2023 19:59 utc | 63

@b
“opposing force was a much harder to crack one than some goat herders from Helmand, Afghanistan.”

Of course, those ‘goat herders’ have been known throughout history as pretty hard to conquer. Soviets, of course did manage it. Wait, another timeline :(

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jul 10 2023 20:01 utc | 64

Karl 12: “Russia is a dwarf. I will bring her to her knees.” 1707
After the battle of Poltava, Sweden lost the status of a great power.

Friedrich 2: “I will conquer backward Russia.” Mid 18th century.
In 1759 the Russians entered Berlin.

Napoleon: “Russia is a colossus with feet of clay. I will destroy it.” 1812
In 1814 the Russians took Paris.

Hitler: “I will conquer the USSR by the end of the summer of 41.” 1941
In 1945, Hitler committed suicide when the Red Army entered Berlin.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 10 2023 20:03 utc | 65

AG | Jul 10 2023 19:43 utc | 62--

An updated BDA of the Ukie electrical system I read and reported on yesterday suggests Ukies lack enough electrical power generation to support much in the way of industry if they want to continue to provide for the needs of citizens and government.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 20:09 utc | 66

@AG

"Being serious again - why would the Russians accept it?
Why would Rheinmetall believe Russia would let that happen?
What is this? PR? Provocation?"

Well, it's quite simple. Rheinmetall will get a huge amount of money for building that factory. When the factory gets destroyed by the Russians, it's not their problem.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 10 2023 20:10 utc | 67

As a Vietnam Vet I feel extremely sorry for those soldiers (of both sides) dying for the Scum Bags of Wall ST., etc. Like Lenin said to the Russian soldiers when he pulled the Russians from WW1 "This is not you war"

Posted by: Viktor | Jul 10 2023 20:12 utc | 68

Military summary reports today that AFU attempted a frontal assault on Robotino area using tanks and AFV, including Bradley vehicles for fire support. This comes on the heels of the report that AFU was forced to abandon the trench they captured in front of Rabotino. Apparently it didn't go very well. The Nato meeting is probably a main factor in attempting large scale attacks.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 10 2023 20:13 utc | 69

Air power and heavy metal is the least of the nazis problems, they're missing brains, hearts, and soul (they don't even know what this is), and increasingly: any sense of self-preservation.

The nazis insist on fighting WWI for the third time, this time with drones. It's silly but they think it represents the future.

Not on its own it doesn't. Not in the current world.

Most of the militaries in "the west" are clearly as ignorant as "the people" in general, or more. Having been in a NATO military I'm still surprised at this despite knowing first hand that there's no shortage of assholes and idiots (me being one of the idiots, but still not this idiotic, not even back then).

One would have thought that everyone (at least in Europe) knows that WWI was a senseless slaughter-suicide and that there should be zero takers for the proposition of having another go at it yet those voicing their opposition are barely heard of.

As an example how many Brits realize wearing a fake "poppy" a day a year is used as a support for fascism rather than for those slaughtered first and foremost by their own "leaders"? Maybe none?

So here we are again.

The real fight wouldn't look much different in outcome; the nazis are heavily dependent on their satellites and ground stations, the majority of those (perhaps also GPS satellites) would be gone in a real fight.

Intercontinental sea and air routes would also be gone or severely restricted. South Korea would be unable to deliver anything. US bases would not be resupplied.

If it escalates towards nukes the nazis will still lose, in my opinion possibly in an unexpected manner. There's no reason to believe that the new Russian weapons is all they have and there would be zero reason not to use it (and perhaps avoid total nuclear war, but maybe that's just hopium).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 10 2023 20:13 utc | 70

@scepticalSOB
“The Swedes will secure my throne”
Tsar Vasily IV, 1609

Dethroned in July 4, 1610

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jul 10 2023 20:16 utc | 71

Posted by: AG | Jul 10 2023 19:43 utc | 62

Perhaps one of the advantages of the SloMO is westerners visit west Ukraine, and see no evidence of war at all, besides patriotic displays. The Ukrainians dont take them to the bombed out ammo depots and buildings, so it is easier to believe that Russia cant really hit west Ukraine. Ukraine likes this perception, so it does not correct the west, as that would dissuade the delivery of more weapons and money.

And russia will be happy to let Germany build an ammo factory in Ukraine. They may not even hit it. By the time it is finished, Russia may be in range to occupy it.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 20:17 utc | 72

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 20:17 utc | 74

The main reason why Rheinmetall and others talk about building factories in Ukraine?

It could really be they think western Ukraine is untouchable and drink the kool-aid from DW or BBC. Another reason of course is, Rheinmetall will get basically all the costs (probably more) of setting up that factory recovered as subsidies from the Euro Commission. They don't care if it will be bombed or not, it's a no-risk proposition. Once it is finished it will get bombed, no PAC-3 in the world will prevent it.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 10 2023 20:21 utc | 73

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 10 2023 18:58 utc | 51

There are historical problems with hutier tactics that are well known, some with a modern twist.

1. Infantry are vulnerable to any weapon system
2. Those systems have increased their range substantially and many have TI, reducing the ability for night infiltration.
3. Artillery is the big killer, especially MLRS systems that rely on volume not accuracy, attacks by an infantry battalion can get held up by a single sniper designated marksman, or mg post, then shelled as they are pinned.
4. If a breakthrough occurs armoured support has to be summoned for exploitation, which imposes further delays and still exposes the reinforcements to attack
5. Taking territory this way allows the opponent ample time respond and the defensive lines taken will be registered for the enemy artillery
6. Troops who take positions by infantry support are painfully vulnerable to counter-attacks, especially in the first hour
7. Infantry are reduced to carrying all that they need and lack the powerful DF support weapons that armoured vehicles give, see 6.
8. Offensives require near constant high tempo operations to dislocate defensive schemes and rapidly exploit any gains to maximise disruption, leg infantry can rarely do either

Perhaps somebody at NATO could dig out some old SPI, Avalon Hill or Victory games rules and consult the CRT’s, for an attack with minimal support against fixed defences. Hint, you better roll high to stand a chance!

Posted by: Milites | Jul 10 2023 20:23 utc | 74

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 10 2023 20:03 utc | 67

Many tried and they all fell. The 1917 revolution was a different story, if the Bolshi didn't have the funding for this coup by the west (jews in general) it also would have flopped.

Every war is a jewish war but try telling that to Col. McGreggor who insists the Palestinian or any Arab who wants to protect their home and family from the Amerikan jewish stranglehold is a terrorist. McGreggor is a snake wrapped up in the Amerikan flag. Personally I can't stand the guy who sent unknowing Amerikans to their death. Just another Blackrock/Vanguard shareholder just like all the rest of the retired generals and cols. cheering on this useless jewish war without calling for peace. After all his voice could be heard if he did call for peace instead of his insight on death and destruction for another jewish war.

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 20:24 utc | 75

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 10 2023 20:20 utc | 75

“Through Germany of course!”

And Germany, of course, is a neighbour of Turkye. Never mind Denmark not quite being Germany.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jul 10 2023 20:25 utc | 76

BREAKING Erdogan will not longer oppose Sweden becoming a member of NATO.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 10 2023 20:29 utc | 77

thx for the responses

now I wonder whether there is any connection between Rheinmetall announcement yesterday and Erdogan´s pro NATO stand today.

But I guess thats just setting the stage for the upcoming Vilnius party.

Posted by: AG | Jul 10 2023 20:30 utc | 78

In WWI - Spring 1918, German Army made significant advances using new tactics of Storm Units. It was a different tactical approach to attacking fortified zones.

Any Barflys have insights

Posted by: Exile | Jul 10 2023 17:18 utc | 35

They had no follow through plan (nor the means to implement one by that stage). "First we will punch a hole through their lines, then we shall see." - Ludendorf.
What they saw was plenty of food and drink which they settled down to enjoy, while the allies closed up the gap behind them.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 10 2023 20:30 utc | 79

Interfax provides this curious news item, "IMF warns Ukraine against nationalizing banks for reasons outside of financial stability", which tells us several important things. First, the top four Ukie banks are state owned. Second, "Ukrainian authorities noted in the updated Memorandum for Economic and Financial Policy that all their decisions 'will be consistent with our overall strategy to reduce state ownership in the banking sector' and that such a framework has already been prepared." Third, the IMF is directly intervening and manipulating Ukriane's banking system in a manner not consistent with the interests of Ukrainians: "'Any decision that has the potential to increase state ownership in the banking sector will be taken in consultation with IMF staff and be strictly limited to matters related to national security decisions during the Martial Law period and preserving financial stability,' the document said." [My Emphasis]

Disrupting and annulling this clear effort to steal what little wealth remains in Ukraine provides yet another reason to defeat Zelensky and capture Ukie government institutions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 20:36 utc | 80

Behold the Commander in Chief:


https://twitter.com/i/status/1678372513535885313

"Joe Biden can barely walk around the lawn of Windsor Castle today -- he's so fragile with his nursing home patient shuffle. King Charles is basically helping him with the stairs."


Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 10 2023 20:42 utc | 81

The booster of mosquito attacks failed to take into account the impact of Russia's helicopters, its drones, and its missiles. By now Russia knows at every given moment where the bulk of the attacking Ukrainian forces are, and where the command centers are, and where a lot of their depots are. And Russia has worn down Ukraine's air defenses to a great degree.

It is now a grind. Russia produces vast quantities of missiles and drones, those missiles and drones get safely transported from Russian depots over Russian roads to the Russian front lines, and are then dispatched to eliminate Ukrainian men and material that would otherwise be a safe distance away from the front lines. People speak of Russia's artillery advantage over Ukraine, but Ukraine's attacking force being at a huge disadvantage in regards air defenses and with drones and missiles doesn't get mentioned as much.

We have a rough idea of much ammo and shells Ukraine is going through, and what the West is sending them, but we know far less about how much of that incoming aid is always getting destroyed by Russia's longest range attacks after it gets transported into Ukraine. Every time cargo gets moved there's a risk of Russia figuring out that its a military resource. And even when just artillery attacks are accounted for, Russia's advantage there means Ukraine will suffer more losses of front line ammo dumps than Russia will.

The sending of cluster bombs might indicate that Russia has been more successful than is easy to discern with its destruction of Ukrainian munitions storage sites. I've commented before that the combination of more satellites overhead and the developing ability of the Russian neural network that analyzes their data, in conjunction with ever more numerous, and ever more proficient human analysts, will mean that Ukraine will be less and less able to hide its stockpiles.

The only real counter to that advance by Russia would be an increase in air defenses. But instead Ukraine's air defense is on the wane. Imo, a very, very, big question right now is how fast can Russia pump out missiles and drones. Because they now have the ability to put a bullseye on all the men and equipment of the AFU that venture out of deep cover.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 10 2023 20:50 utc | 82

And russia will be happy to let Germany build an ammo factory in Ukraine.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 20:17 utc | 74

Why wait for Germany in the future? Erdo is already building a drone factory now. At least that's what Turkey and Ukr say. If it's true, we'll see if it's hit or not in just a few weeks. There is also the option all these stories are fakes for local Ukr propaganda.

Posted by: rk | Jul 10 2023 20:52 utc | 83

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 10 2023 20:03 utc | 67

Thank you, scepticalSOB, a very useful piece of info, a warning to others with similar or identical intentions, it may well be the American Republic will balkanise but Russia will not:

https://niccolo.substack.com/p/delusion

https://secession.substack.com/p/the-biggest-secession-news-of-the

Posted by: Baron | Jul 10 2023 20:58 utc | 84

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 10 2023 20:42 utc | 86

Patients with advanced dementia often suffer from "Sundowner" Syndrome. They get extra agitated and confused after dinner. Hence, early bedtimes are recommended.

With the travel across many time zones, Dementia Joe is probably extra confused. He doesn't know what time it is, where he is, and will probably need extra medication and memory care.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 10 2023 21:03 utc | 85

So the sultan swings again and expects to get eu membership in 2 years, schengen now and counter terror in sweden for his approval of sweden in nato. I wonder if his expectations will be met.

Posted by: Tacitus | Jul 10 2023 21:04 utc | 86

This is just Too Funny, a massive Howler! RT reports that Biden is being accused of spilling a "military secret"--"Biden accused of spilling military secret"--the Empire's running out of ammo:

"Conservative critics, such as US podcast host Steve Guest, argued that Biden blurted out what should have been a state secret. 'Joe Biden broadcasts to the world that the US is low on 155mm shells. Does President Biden not care that our adversaries in communist China are listening?'"

People like Guest are utter imbeciles and seem to have the brain of an 8 year-old. Why would China need to worry about how much 155mm ammo the Outlaw US Empire has? Does Mr. Guest think China will attack the USA when the USA has nothing China wants or needs? Do any of the other idiots showing their lack of brains not know Russia has people who count what's deployed and used by NATO/Ukies/USA? Isn't it painfully clear that sending Ukies very poorly performing ammo instead of the good stuff is an admission that the good stuff is becoming scarce?

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 21:10 utc | 87

There were some longstanding NATO delusions, that have gotten much worse now in Ukraine.

NATO before '91 always assumed it would win a relatively short struggle for air superiority. It assumed far high quality of aircraft and pilot training would dominate. There was some reason to think it could, in the experience from Korea and Vietnam, and of Israel. But it always assumed some struggle, and invested heavily in winning that.

NATO before '91 had some high quality antiaircraft systems, but not very many of them. They were a low priority, and many were aged well past that quality they once had. This was accepted because of the assumption that NATO air forces would clear the skies, and the AA systems would only face what could leak through, not a decisive or vital threat.

After '91, NATO assumed that superiority as a starting point, without even a need to fight for it. Briefly that was true, and afterwards that was overconfident bluster and budgeteering.

Toward that end, the West provided Israel its qualitative advantage that emphasized its Air Force. That worked.

But now, Ukraine has no such air force, and can't possibly be given one in the available time. It is NATO do it for Ukraine, or Ukraine does without.

Yet, the Western systems were designed and intended to work with that air superiority. It is a design assumption. Things just won't work without that; they were never intended to work without that, not the equipment and not the tactics meant for that equipment.

Meanwhile, Russian systems were designed to function without that superiority, and now function even better given such superiority too.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jul 10 2023 21:12 utc | 88

gringo | Jul 10 2023 20:45 utc | 87--

Fleas that try to put words in my mouth usually don't last very long on this site. You are well beyond erroneous.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 21:13 utc | 89

Libyan rebels and militia groups have been using air-defense missiles as land-attack ballistic missiles, sometimes planting them on APCs. Some extreme photos on the ACLOS page on ratmobiles (know as banderamobiles in Ukraine).

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 10 2023 21:17 utc | 90

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 21:13 utc | 100

First of all, I'm not a flea and second I'm just pointing out facts.

Sorry to hurt your feels, should I be ashamed?

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 21:23 utc | 91

From Telegram:

Bloomberg quoting a Turkish Government official: The Turkish-EU negotiations include Turkey joining the Pan-European customs union (Schengen Area) and allowing its citizens to travel without a visa to European Union countries!

Looks like the deal of Turkey supporting Sweden for Nato includes Turkey joining Schengen. Non of this is good for EU states or their stability, economics or sustainability in general. Which means Blinken has forced Ursula et.co. to bend over. Europe is finished, all for this gambit.

Remember, Erdogan has probably more than a million "refugees" from "Syria" in Turkey, which he doesn't want to pay life support. All those guys will be dumped through Schengen into Europe and they will also become agents of pan-Turkism agenda. He also has a lot of jihadi's in Idlib which are so far stuck and can't go anywhere. There was a very good reason it was never allowed to join for decades.

Of course, there's always a chance they will screw Erdogan, but it could take a few years to see and conclude.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 10 2023 21:30 utc | 92

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 21:26 utc | 104

What's the matter did I hurt your feelings? Do you need safe space? Are you the great Col. McGreggor perhaps?

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 21:37 utc | 93

Posted by: NYC'er | Jul 10 2023 21:14 utc | 101

Here's another that needs a safe space and call yourselves men.

No wonder the west is f'kd!

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 21:41 utc | 94


This war has got to end, and comms are totally jammed inside the U.S. Literally, comms are jammed. We can’t organize to protest the war because every forum for doing so is flooded with NAFO. Corporate media is beholden to arms manufacturers.

I was listening to RFK Jr’s interview with Fridman today, as he talked about how close we came to WWIII over Cuba. He explained how Kennedy stood up to his own hawks. I felt sick - there’s no American in politics with half JFK’s moral spine. It’s only a matter of time before they get us all killed

Posted by: GoFast | Jul 10 2023 21:42 utc | 95

NATO has lost! Its good news week again.

So I guess they are meeting in the land of the fleas to console each other.
But don't trust these scumbags, they have form.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 10 2023 21:44 utc | 96

Posted by: Not Ewe | Jul 10 2023 21:46 utc | 112

I hit a nerve and I'm loving it!

Shall we talk peace?

Posted by: gringo | Jul 10 2023 21:50 utc | 97

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jul 10 2023 21:12 utc | 99
«NATO before '91 always assumed it would win a relatively short struggle for air superiority. It assumed far high quality of aircraft and pilot training would dominate. There was some reason to think it could, in the experience from Korea and Vietnam, and of Israel.»

The dominant experience was WW2, where the USSR on the eastern front, and the USA on the french and italian front, had complete air superiority (probably also because of strategic errors by Adolf), and the USA ended up with complete air superiority in the Pacific too, both on land and sea.

During WW2 the USA manufactured 300,000 fighter planes per year and built 151 aircraft carriers (even if a bit over half were light carriers).

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 10 2023 21:52 utc | 98

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jul 10 2023 21:12 utc | 99

It really goes down to different experiences during WW2 and conflicts beyond. Russia was still getting savaged by German ground attack aircraft in 45 and lacked decent mobile AD; however, the Western Allies had effective AD but used it mainly for ground support, due to their air superiority. This trend strengthened post war, as Russian backed proxies tended to rely on AD and Western one’s air support. As a result, both sides provided decent short range AD, but the Russians kept on developing a mobile integrated AD system, whilst NATO trained to take it down. Unfortunately for NATO, the technological revolution began to favour the AD systems, who became ever more mobile, responsive, and accurate, to such an extent that SEAD missions often now find the weapons they use becoming the target of the enemy AD.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 10 2023 21:58 utc | 99

I don't know whether you are a flea or not but what you are pointing out are certainly not facts. The "west' inspired by its financiers spent years trying to undermine the Soviet Union, including a series of civil wars in which 8 million Russians are said to have died, many of war induced famines.
The lie that the October Revolution was financed by and carried out for "Jews" is simply White Russian propaganda which morphed, as did they, into Nazism.
So you may not be a flea but you are acting as a Nazi and a particularly stupid one as well: they were fighting their enemy, Communism; you are simply repeating garbage to which you add an anti semitic spin. You ought to be ashamed of yourself- no flea would lower itself to your intellectual level.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 10 2023 22:15 utc | 100

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