psychohistorian | Jul 30 2023 5:37 utc | 306
Jerr008 | Jul 30 2023 5:46 utc | 307
Wagner, Poland
One major lesson is taught by the Polish fuss (they even created a new specialist sapper unit (to mine the border area?)) because of Wagner: The movement of hostile forces closer to one’s border IS A THREAT. This fact had been vehemently denied for decades by the West with regard to NATO’s encroachment upon Russia. And in NATO’s case, we talk about a fully fledged force with marine-, air force-, strategic missile- and nuclear- capabilities, not just an (admittedly well equipped and combat hardened) ground force mercenary unit”. This proves Putin right when he took action “to avoid a repetition of the 1939-1941 situation, when Russia believed the German non-aggression promises, which finally cost the USSR 27 million lives”. (Or take Minsk2, wen he believed Kiev will not go after Donezk’s population).

Posted by: OttoE | Jul 30 2023 8:10 utc | 304

Posted by: Citan | Jul 27 2023 16:57 utc | 39

Conclusion: Gerasimov is a genius, Zaluzhny is a dumbass.

Sorry Citan, unless our resident military geniuses shadowbanned and Biswapriya endorse this conclusion it ain’t legit. Because according to them and others on our local council of military elders: Gerasimov is “always one step behind”.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 30 2023 9:10 utc | 306

Posted by: Milites | Jul 29 2023 13:12 utc | 244
“The majority of war gamers are not interested in radio nets, logistics and arcs and boundaries, and fratricide; although rules now pay more than just lip service to morale, training levels or exhaustion, most gamers have a limited amount of time so fight accelerated combats.”
That stuff gets abstracted into the simulations I’ve been involved with. Depending on the fidelity of the simulation, for example, brigade versus battalion it is more eventful at the lower levels. Otherwise it just gets lost in the overall picture.
The hard part of this conflict to model is the idea of an attritional offense. Just rerunning the Kherson offensive a few thousand times via Monte Carlo simulation and tweaking/stressing the inputs was never able quite reach the same decision point where the Russians withdrew in good order – without just ‘gaming’ it.. That is, they could have stayed longer.
Handy that Ukrainian has given you their battle plan to know their D+ objectives. Can you send?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 30 2023 9:55 utc | 308

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/37368

Russian forces shutdown an interesting looking homemade Ukrainian drone.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 30 2023 10:08 utc | 310

I am still Greenhorn in these matters.
Especially since you do need deep knowledge beyond this “report” to judge what in it is legit and what is not.
Posted by: AG | Jul 30 2023 9:58 utc | 319
The Russians have never (in this war) employed sufficient forces to take Kiev in whatever number of days you want to choose. That is the problem with that argument. They used only forces sufficient to threaten.
What Russia was after in the early part of the war was:
— Disrupt NATO plans to attack Donbass
— Determine and fix Ukrainian forces distribution
— Grab the land route to Crimea
— Move forces (artillery) into position in Donbas
— Grab some NPPs and “Biological Research Labs”.
“Shaping the Battlespace” for the attritional war to follow.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 30 2023 10:32 utc | 312

@Engineer-John
@Bemildred
thx for responses.
Some of this is clear to me.
Not least because I have become a reader of MoA.
That RUSI itself is in part not telling the entire truth due to its paying clients is one of those counterfactual truisms in this business. At some point when money runs out this behaviour of course is uncovered as “luxury” one cannot afford any more.
I have the impression that a lof of what is being floated goes back to this very report. No additional reports from different kinds of sources.
But this seems to not bother people.
There is Simplicius et al. who pointed out that the troops allgedly allocated by RU to take Kiev would have never sufficed in reality. Since cou can´t take 2 mio. city with a few thousand.
And then others seem to say the opposite and argue – independently from RUSI – that it is absolutely clear that the goal was to take over Kiev and take down the government.
This might be a detail in the entire matter.
But the “beginning is”, to quote the sic-fi movie DUNE, “a very delicate time”.
Which is why people seem to get back to this issue over and over.
Me included. (May be its dumb.)

Posted by: AG | Jul 30 2023 11:20 utc | 314

AG | Jul 30 2023 11:20 utc | 324
Kiev.
While western corporate media and twitter and the nascent NAFO were obsessing and mesmerised by the 20km (50km 10trillionkm) Russian tank and toys convoy sitting on the outskirts of Kiev, no one was paying attention to the rapid occupy§ secure § control of sites like the bio weapons labs, ZapNPP and Mariupol.
Western narrative spinners have to keep playing with Kiev kabuki just like a six-year-old plays with a loose tooth…. niggle niggle niggle.
They can’t really accept they were hoodwinked.
The Kiev play was also a Russian tactic to force a quick cease-fire / negotiation.
It nearly worked.
They keep returning to the Kiev convoy, because, if they had been really observant they would have realised what game the Russians were playing.
Every time they think about ZapNPP or Mariupol or the Crimea land bridge, it reminds them they lost all three while they were distracted and busy laughing and mocking the Russians….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 30 2023 11:39 utc | 316

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/36399

👉Just a random post from me about the Ukrainian air force and why they are still flying…I have only got anecdotal evidence of this by means of some videos and my own visual impressions.
Throughout Ukraine, and I mean, throughout Ukraine almost every possible metre next to the roads have trees. It’s quite impressive to see.
In many places I saw for myself how Ukrainian “camps” were situated in woods near roads, I mean, they were everywhere. And of course, this is only what I could see, in reality there would be a lot more I couldn’t see.
Then there are the roads. Yes, some roads are poor, but overall, the roads are in good condition, and in some places in excellent condition.
There are several areas where there are multi-lane highways for hundreds of kilometres.
You can probably guess what my point is, and we will not see the end of the Ukrainian air force anytime soon.

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/36398

German politicians urge provision of long range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/36362

Dozens of radicals from Germany left for the war in Ukraine: the majority are fighting on the side of Russia — Welt
▪️According to the German Ministry of the Interior, 61 people “with links to extremism or politically motivated crime” have left the country.
▪️In relation to 39 people, there is reliable evidence that they left Germany “with the intention of participating in hostilities.”
▪️ Of these, 27 people are pro-Russian and 12 are pro-Ukrainian.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 30 2023 12:17 utc | 318

“The combat ships that have entered service with the Russian Navy include the missile corvette Merkury named in honor of the Black Sea Fleet’s sailing ship that gained its glory in the 1828-1829 Russo-Turkish War, the head of state pointed out.”
Considering Russia needs Erdogan perhaps a different name could have been found for this new corvette?

Posted by: canuck | Jul 30 2023 12:56 utc | 320

“In many places I saw for myself how Ukrainian “camps” were situated in woods near roads, I mean, they were everywhere. And of course, this is only what I could see, in reality there would be a lot more I couldn’t see.”
anon2020 | Jul 30 2023 12:17 utc | 319
Interesting observation this. It could indicate that NATO occupation of Western Ukraine has already occurred.
The assumption is these camps along the roads and in the forest are those of the AFU; but they could as easily be filled with NATO troops.
Some blue painters tape around arms and helmets would easily disguise the nationality of the troops. Ukraine now has so much Western equipment no one would think twice that it wasn’t part of the NATO equipment provided to Ukraine.
Perhaps, NATO is already positioned in Ukraine for an occupation of its Western areas.

Posted by: Jerr008 | Jul 30 2023 13:33 utc | 322

Re; Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 30 2023 11:39 utc | 317

While western corporate media and twitter and the nascent NAFO were obsessing and mesmerised by the 20km (50km 10trillionkm) Russian tank and toys convoy sitting on the outskirts of Kiev, no one was paying attention to the rapid occupy§ secure § control of sites like the bio weapons labs, ZapNPP and Mariupol.

Which “bio weapons labs” – why don’t you name them for me. I’ve never seen a list.

Posted by: Julian | Jul 30 2023 14:28 utc | 324

@Fonto 93
No, imperialism was not the age of strongest but age of guile and liar thieves. English bas-rd were never strong militarily – their forte was spying and sabotage.
Bismarck.
Fact is that English cowards acquired empire through sly deceit and lies –even in the height of their so called pirate empire there were nothing compared to the French or germans of the day. they used others to run down who they want to take down-by propaganda to disarm and only after disarming them did the english dare attack unarmed civilians. notice how America is being instructed by English scumbags in the same tactics of using UNO to disarm others in name of nuke proliferation or what so ever and then attacking after years of sanctions. stupid Russians have not learnt anything from this mortal enemy . Believing in their own propaganda these English think that they got things through honourable use of arms-let us see what the germans though of them at the height of pirate empire in 1888. Bismarck When someone asked Bismark once what he would do if the British invaded, he said he’d have the border police arrest them (or words to that effect—“ “If the British Army landed in Europe, I’d get the Belgian police to arrest them.” ).-that is how low the Germans thought of the English army capability –and the Germans were right as was shown the cowardice of non fighting coward English troops in both world wars-they instigated others to fight but remained behind in actual fighting till late. Remember Bismarck said that when the pirate empire called british empire was at height of her pseudo power-in other words Prussians could defeat the English race at the height of their so called power. And rightly so. english then and now are ready to fight only unarmed civilians. Prussia was the strongest army in the world at that time. And had no empire worth talking about. It tells you how low English race is compared to the Germans and how much Germans could have gone up had they been not made to fight Russian in plot created by the English race-that plot is called world war one and two.

Posted by: Sam | Jul 30 2023 16:09 utc | 326

@ Sam | Jul 30 2023 16:09 utc | 327
Thanks Sam for your comment. I agree with it, the Bismarck quote is legendary. But, the truth is always complex. Initially, the imperialism and colonialism was made possible because of new technologies, like invention of powder, the gun, the metallurgy, the precise clock to make high sea navigation possible (John Harrison and the trip to Jamaica), later the other technologies, too numerous to count. All these made the Old Europe a power house, there is no ifs or buts about it. Germany was not a big colonial empire, but wanted to become, especially after Bismarck.
The cunning and intrigues of big powers were needed later, when the technologic differences were eliminated (or almost so).

Posted by: fanto | Jul 30 2023 17:43 utc | 328