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July 27, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-180
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I just want to thank the one (was it james?) linked to an article by aurelien the other day. The Substack has a lot of very good material!
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 13:28 utc | 1
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of July 27, 2023)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have carried out concentrated strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons at airfields, control points and locations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, assembly shops and storage sites for unmanned boats, as well as missiles, weapons and military equipment received from Europe and the United States.
▫️ The goal of the strikes has been achieved. All assigned objects are hit.
During the day, the armed forces of Ukraine continued unsuccessful attempts of offensive actions in the Donetsk, Krasnolimansk and South Donetsk directions.
In the Donetsk direction, the coordinated actions of the defending units in close cooperation with the aviation and artillery of the “Southern” group of troops successfully repelled nine enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Maryinka and north of Kirovo of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Also, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Veseloye, Bogdanovka, Predtechino, Dyleyevka and Novgorodskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
In the area of the settlement of Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the ammunition depot of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed.
The enemy’s losses during the day amounted to over 210 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, seven infantry fighting vehicles, three armored combat vehicles, two pickups, howitzers: D-20 and Msta-B, as well as a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar.
In addition, over the past two days in this direction, units of Russian troops have thwarted four APU attacks in the area of the settlement of Kleshcheyevka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
During the fighting, more than 120 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, two armored personnel carriers and an armored vehicle “Kozak” were destroyed by the skillful use of anti-tank weapons with the support of army aviation.
▫️ In the Krasnolimansky direction, units of the Center group of troops, relying on a skillfully organized fire system in combination with engineering barriers, repelled an enemy attack in the direction of the settlement of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
▫️ During the battle, more than 15 Ukrainian servicemen, an infantry fighting vehicle, as well as one car were destroyed.
Air strikes and artillery fire defeated the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Nevskoye of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Torskoye and Serebryanka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The enemy’s losses in this direction amounted to up to 185 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, three pickups, two D-30 howitzers, as well as a self-propelled artillery installation “Gvozdika”.
An ammunition depot of the 100th Territorial Defense Brigade was destroyed near the settlement of Yampol in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
In total, since July 23, the advance of the assault detachments of the Center group of troops in the area of the settlement of Sergeyevka of the Luhansk People’s Republic amounted to 12 kilometers along the front and three kilometers into the depth of the enemy’s defense.
▫️ In the South Donetsk direction, the active actions of units, air strikes and artillery fire of the Vostok group of troops repelled an attack by an assault detachment of the 35th Marine Brigade in the area of the village of Urozhnoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Up to 16 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed, as well as two armored combat vehicles.
In addition, the enemy’s manpower and equipment were hit in the areas of the settlements of Ugledar and Makarovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
▫️ In the area of the settlement of Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the activities of the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group were suppressed.
In the Zaporozhye direction, after the failure of the APU offensive north of the settlement of Workino in the Zaporozhye region, in which up to three battalion tactical groups from the strategic reserve brigades were involved, the enemy, having suffered heavy losses, restored combat capability during the night and did not take active action.
▫️ The strikes of operational-tactical, army aviation and artillery fire defeated Ukrainian units in the areas of the settlements of Belogorye, Omelnik, Novodanilovka, Orekhov and Pyatikhatki of the Zaporozhye region.
Also, in the area of the settlement of Stepanovka, Zaporozhye region, the activities of the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group were suppressed.
The enemy’s losses during the day in these areas amounted to more than 280 Ukrainian servicemen, 25 tanks, ten infantry fighting vehicles, three armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, a Czech-made RM-70 “Vampire” multiple rocket launcher combat vehicle, as well as two FH-70 howitzers manufactured in Great Britain.
In the Kupyansk direction, the assault detachments of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the “Western” grouping of troops, continuing offensive operations west of the settlement of Kuzemovka of the Luhansk People’s Republic, took more advantageous positions.
▫️ Operational-tactical, army aviation strikes and artillery fire defeated the AFU units in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka, Timkovka, Kharkiv region, Stelmakhovka and Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
The enemy’s losses amounted to more than 35 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, four cars, a D-20 howitzer, as well as a self-propelled artillery installation “Carnation”.
Up to 25 servicemen, three cars, as well as two D-30 howitzers were destroyed in the Kherson direction as a result of fire damage during the day.
▫️ Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated 109 artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 123 districts during the day.
In addition, aviation fuel depots were destroyed near the settlement of Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytsky region.
Two radar stations for detecting P-18 aerial targets were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Chuguevo and Novopavlovka, Dnipropetrovsk region.
▫️ In the area of the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye region, the fuel depot of the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was hit.
▫️ Air defense means intercepted five rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system during the day.
In addition, 20 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka, Kremennaya of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Gorlovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Vershina Dvaya, Tokmak and Malye Shcherbaki of the Zaporozhye region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 457 aircraft, 244 helicopters, 5291 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 anti-aircraft missile systems, 10966 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1140 multiple rocket launchers, 5636 field artillery and mortars, as well as 11920 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
🔹 Russian Ministry of Defense
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 27 2023 13:30 utc | 2
@Jörgen Hassler
“I just want to thank the one (was it james?) linked to an article by aurelien the other day. The Substack has a lot of very good material!”
Yes – and Aurelien regularly contributes to the comments section of Nakedcapitalism, which regularly links to Moonofalabama. He is very good at picking apart the ideals of liberalism.
Posted by: begob | Jul 27 2023 13:32 utc | 3
Our only hope is aliens or angels.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Jul 27 2023 13:26 utc | 285
Yes, I second that, very interesting piece.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 27 2023 13:40 utc | 4
Oops, I mean Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 13:28 utc | 1
and article by Aurelien.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 27 2023 13:42 utc | 5
As you know, Bandera declared war on the Red Army. Indeed, in order to take power in Ukraine, to proclaim it a nationalist state independent of the USSR, it was first necessary to inflict a crushing defeat on the Red Army. We cannot seriously believe that Stalin would have given Ukraine to Bandera. The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)to win?! At this point, a serious question arises about how adequately Stepan Bandera and his associates assessed their chances: 150 thousand were killed, 103 thousand were arrested and captured.
So the question: What did Stepan Bandera and Zelensky actually do for Ukraine and the Ukrainians? They made corpses of Ukrainians. How Bandera/Zelensky hated Ukrainians and destroyed them by the hundreds of thousands. A nationalist should avoid unnecessary sacrifices among his people…
https://regnum.ru/article/3562718
Posted by: Faraday | Jul 27 2023 13:43 utc | 6
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 27 2023 13:30 utc | 2
Thank you. Keep up the good work, please!
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 27 2023 13:46 utc | 7
General Weather:
Both the Russians and the Ukrainians have until late November to take territory and/or strategic positions. After that, the rains will provide a muddy mess which will pretty much bog down the heavy military equipment.
4 months is nothing. Both sides will do what they think is necessary to take what they think they need within the next 4 months. After that, the zero lines should be stable until the winter freezes come. And they did not come last winter except for a couple of weeks.
Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 13:54 utc | 8
Scott Ritter’s excellent documentaries on Agent Zelensky, Part 1 and Part 2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLeBb6hPUC8;
and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq-Jab4DUhA.
Are the ukrazies finally seeing their enslavement to the Western Slave Masters? Your skin doesn’t have to be a ‘funny tinge’ for you to lose your familial lands and language. Not once you have to wipe our aged western shitty bottoms for a pittance. Pick our fruit and vegetables in all weathers and pluck our chickens… hey , hey they are the new navvys’ – heck even the Oirish need more manpower having themselves been depleted for centuries by their Lords and Masters. Lol.
“‘They want to deport all of our Ukrainian people from Ukraine’. A Ukrainian man has begun to understand that America and the European Union only need Ukrainians as workers, and are uninterested in helping Ukraine.”
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/29293
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 27 2023 14:18 utc | 10
Re: Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 13:54 utc | 8
General Weather:
Both the Russians and the Ukrainians have until late November to take territory and/or strategic positions. After that, the rains will provide a muddy mess which will pretty much bog down the heavy military equipment.
4 months is nothing. Both sides will do what they think is necessary to take what they think they need within the next 4 months. After that, the zero lines should be stable until the winter freezes come. And they did not come last winter except for a couple of weeks.
Given your timeline, it is extremely unlikely there will be any advances of any significance by either Ukraine or Russia between now and November – despite what the likes of Scott Ritter may claim.
The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.
Since the end of March (4 months ago) – only 1 city/town has changed hands – and that was after a year of battle – Bakhmut/Artemovsk.
Given the upcoming calendar – there is about a ZERO.ZERO% chance of any great Russian advances.
BRICS Meeting -South Africa: August 22-24, 2023.
G20 Meeting – India: September 9-10, 2023.
Putin & Xi Meeting in China: October 2023.
China has invited President Vladimir Putin for a visit in October, Russian news agency Tass reported, citing Moscow’s former ambassador to Beijing.
Given the way Russia handles the sensitivities of its friends – there will be no big Russian attacks or advances to embarrass any of South Africa, India or China.
Given we are at the start of August – expect more of the same for at least the next 3-4 months – and probably all the way through Winter.
Maybe things will ramp up in 2024 during the US Election Season. Maybe.
Posted by: Julian | Jul 27 2023 14:19 utc | 11
Apparently Ukranazistan has taken Staromayorskoe. I haven’t really been following war news today.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 27 2023 14:26 utc | 12
Re: Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 13:28 utc | 1
Even though I also appreciate this very in-depth historical analysis, and this war has generated ALOT of analysis, ranging from 200-1400 years ago.
This same in-depth analysis “could have” flooded the internet & mainstream with ALL of the wars of the last 20 years.. it’s like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen had no “history” worth speaking about.
The article opened with a solid statement of West(Us/Uk/EU) FAILED “force projection” in THIS war, but then decided to run around for centuries about “other” failed wars.
Not all “failed wars” were “failed force projections”. Nevertheless, THIS WAR, was very much a deliberate military, economic & international “force projection” BLUFF!
It showed ALL that there was only “projection” and zero substance. Previous wars may have lost due to all kinds of logistical, structural, economic & military problems in execution, and yes, as well as hubris, but THIS WAR was entirely ideological & political.
It simply has no historical context. As I stated, in all the wars you could go back to Napoleon, Tzars, Emperor’s, and yes, they had ideological & politics as a part, but THIS WAR was clearly from the start a house built in sand. And it isn’t because West engaged with a “peer” power… clearly the “West” “power projection” was never anything other than global currency holder, something no other “empire “ certainly ever had, which is why they’re wars, win or lose, contained actual “militaries” and not fake “power projection “ place holders like ours is.
Anyways, I think all these historical analyses & looking to compare or evaluate this or that for context, is simply a vast Western pastime coping mechanism for the “in your face” reality that the Wests “force projection” was always “will print money and bring all your kingdoms down” game.
There’s no “military” victory now or coming, for anyone. The “commodities vs. dollar” race is on, and though it’ll be a long race ahead, commodity & labor will win over financials & rentier economies. USA & West aren’t going to get to sit back and live off of patents & production of others any longer.
So no, there’s no “historical” war that THIS WAR can draw relevance from. That’s my opinion only of course. I think THIS WAR is writing its own unique outcome, which is to be seen.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 27 2023 14:34 utc | 13
Posted by: Julian | Jul 27 2023 14:19 utc | 10
I like your logic and agree with it in principle. However, what stops Putin having had a conversation with Xi or Modi as follows,”Guess what”, “ I may have big arrow movements at any stage; including just before or even during a major meeting between us or yourselves and any other party”. “Why , you ask,well so that the enemy doesn’t predict my movements” .”You all know my thoughts and my aims ,so hold tight , and I will only communicate with you via extraordinary means if and when something extraordinary goes wrong with my big arrow movements” .
Posted by: Wondrous | Jul 27 2023 14:39 utc | 14
@ Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 13:28 utc | 1
thanks.. glad you appreciated it..
Posted by: james | Jul 27 2023 14:47 utc | 15
Because of this violation of current rules Ukrainian authorities have searched the apartment of MP Yuri Aristov. The 48-year-old had been vacationing in the Maldives “under the pretext of a business trip,” investigators said this Wednesday. President Volodymyr Z. Elenskyy sharply criticized the deputy’s long-distance trip.
Going on a vacation island during the war is a “betrayal of the principles of the state,” Z. Elenskyj declared Tuesday evening in his daily video address. “They should work in Ukraine and for the Ukrainian people,” he said addressing deputies and officials.
Posted by: Captain Ramrod | Jul 27 2023 14:50 utc | 16
@ rumod report | Jul 27 2023 13:30 utc | 2
thanks for these ongoing updates.. much appreciated… would be most interesting if the russia mod could also report the russian losses, but i suppose they don’t want to talk about that in the same manner…
@ begob | Jul 27 2023 13:32 utc | 3
i am pretty sure aurelian used to post here at moa.. that is how i found him and signed up to his substack..
Posted by: james | Jul 27 2023 14:52 utc | 17
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 27 2023 14:34 utc | 12
I fully agree that this war is different from a lot of other wars, and I too pointed out in a comment a few days ago that most wars fought by the US were in fact not real wars but punitive expeditions (or call them force projections if you like). Real wars are bloody (for both sides) and they take time — the only time the US have been close to that was when they entered ww2 at the last moment.
The other big difference is that it marks a historic turning point. The anti colonial struggles of the fifties and sixties marked the beginning of the end of colonialism. All colonial powers banding together with a few settler colonial states to attack Russia just to be beaten most likely marks the end of the end of colonialism.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 15:00 utc | 18
Putin on recent combat action:
Question: Vladimir Vladimirovich, let me ask you a question about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The fact is that in recent days, many experts in the West have only been saying that the decisive stage of the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins, or supposedly it has already begun, Like, everything that happened before that is “flowers”, now we will certainly “show”.
Do you record any attempts to intensify the fighting? actions on the part of Ukraine, is this really a decisive stage? In general, how Do you assess the situation at the front now? And let me ask you a clarifying question about the losses on both sides – on the Russian and Ukrainian sides. Is it possible to announce the data at the moment?
Vladimir Putin: We We have already said that this is confirmed by real actions in the contact zone, The so-called counteroffensive, a large-scale counteroffensive, began on June 4 this year. This is an obvious fact, and this is evidenced by the involvement of the so-called strategic reserves of the armed forces of Ukraine.
As for the last days, yes, indeed, we We confirm that hostilities have intensified, and in a significant way. The main clashes took place in the direction, as they say in the West, the main, main blow – the Zaporozhye direction. Yesterday there were serious battles actions in the area of responsibility of the 810th Marine Brigade of the Black Sea fleet and the 71st regiment of the 42nd division of the 58th army of the Southern Military District.
Without any It is an exaggeration to say that our soldiers and officers have demonstrated The best examples of mass heroism. The enemy used a large number of armored vehicles are 50 units. Of these, 39 units, including 26 tanks and 13 armored vehicles were destroyed. Moreover, 60 percent were destroyed by the forces of personal the composition of the above-mentioned units, and 40 percent are pilots of combat aviation.
Today in my opinion The order right in the combat zone will be handed over to our guys State awards. And I also gave instructions to the Ministry of Defense prepare proposals for awarding these units honorary Names. The enemy was not successful in any of the areas of clashes. All attempts at a counteroffensive have been stopped, the enemy has been pushed back with large Losses.
Today they tried to pick up an abandoned wrecked equipment, the wounded and the bodies of the dead, which they left yesterday on the battlefield, but were also scattered. At the moment, right at this point in time The situation is as I said.
Question: Is it possible to voice the losses?
Vladimir Putin: Yes, in addition to military equipment, of course, the enemy has very heavy losses of personal composition – over two hundred people. Unfortunately, we did not do without losses, But the difference is enormous, at times – more than ten times less than the enemy. I repeat once again and I want to emphasise this: everything that happened over the past day is a vivid example of the mass heroism of our soldiers and officers.
The Marine unit is the same as the one having “Red Backpack Man” at Mariupol who we now know as Vlad from the vid interview provided by Simplicius at the bottom of his most recent update.
No side has lost this war, Ukraine didn’t get F16’s yet because they need an excuse to rebuild the army again. Last year it was a big attack so they had a stronger position at the table, then it changed to “we are winning why negotiate now”
Next taking Crimea was the rational and soon it will be “obviously we need air superiority”
Anyone see the footage of Shoigu in North Korea? Did the Koreans start production of ripped of US drones?
I would expect North Korean gear to show in Ukraine soon. Every time Shoigu is filmed around weapons Ukraine gets smashed with them.
Posted by: OohCanada | Jul 27 2023 15:08 utc | 21
@OohCanada | Jul 27 2023 15:08 utc | 20
Anyone see the footage of Shoigu in North Korea? Did the Koreans start production of ripped of US drones?
There was an image on Telegram with Shoigu and Kim Jong Un with a large drone in the background, looking like one of the US ones.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 27 2023 15:12 utc | 22
Judging from the stream of puerile US dross masquerading as News in Oz MSM, one suspects that US-NATO are prepping to abandon Ukraine by deflecting attention from it.
This week we’ve heard about:
– The trumped up Trump indictments.
– Covered up sightings of ET spacecraft and ET cadavers.
– A 50-something ex-US Marine Corps, now Australian, pilot Daniel Duggan rotting in detention for almost 12 months awaiting extradition to the USA for training Chinese non-military pilots more than a decade ago. The detention was approved by Scum Mo’s lapdog Liberal govt and continues under Albo’s lapdog Labor govt.
– Lapdog 0z is to buy 100+ very expensive untested battle tank substitutes from lapdog South Korea in an attempt to give AUKUS a veneer of legitimacy.
If the loud-mouthed Yankees can’t win a fake war with Russia in Ukraine, what are their chances of winning a real war with China, in China?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 27 2023 15:15 utc | 23
What looks static on the surface is much less so at deeper levels. Whether commenters agree with it or not, Russia’s strategy is clearly to degrade Ukrainian ability while building its capability. That appears to be working.
If you track the declared supply of material from the west, it is shrinking. Combine that with the recent assault on Kiev’s one safe area to concentrate supplies (Odessa). Then combine it with the obvious western pressure to do something in the south, regardless of cost. You end up with a picture of Kiev having a limited timeline to achieve its goals, goals which were always unrealistic except in the event that Russia simply gave up.
Based on the domestic Russian talk about mobilization, we should expect that the big Russian push will be spring 2024. That makes sense in terms of Russian industry being fully spooled up to supply the war effort, Kiev’s forces and sponsors being degraded as much as is realistically possible and the politics situation for Kiev’s sponsors being most delicate.
But it may not play out that way. There are risks for Russia in this strategy, though they are less than a big push now that might end in embarrassing failure. There is also the possibility that Kiev can’t maintain its internal power that long. It’s no good to speak simply of how many men are left in Ukraine who could be sent to the front. The domestic economics, social and political factors need to be considered. We won’t be able to make timeline predictions on them, but we can surmise that things are bad in Ukraine and brittle. Which raises the question: if Kiev experiences a significant shock is Russia in position to exploit it immediately? And would it do so or would it wait and see whether Zelensky is overthrown by someone willing to negotiate?
Posted by: Lex | Jul 27 2023 15:18 utc | 24
Re: NATOs Army in The Ukraine collapsing ?
Still no signs of widespread surrenders or multiple battalion sized capitulations.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2023 15:18 utc | 25
Given your timeline, it is extremely unlikely there will be any advances of any significance by either Ukraine or Russia between now and November – despite what the likes of Scott Ritter may claim.
Posted by: Julian | Jul 27 2023 14:19 utc | 11
The issue will be when, or perhaps if, the Ukrainian front collapses. It’s difficult to see how it could last all that long. They’re constantly getting themselves in a mess, and losing large amounts of weaponry, and numbers of men. On the other hand, the Russians aren’t going to launch a major offensive. It’ll be like in Syria. No advance was ever made until the jihadis were ready to collapse, and the Syrians/Russians could just walk in. That’ll happen, I think, but I couldn’t say when.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 27 2023 15:32 utc | 26
@Norwegian | Jul 27 2023 15:12 utc | 22
There was an image on Telegram with Shoigu and Kim Jong Un with a large drone in the background, looking like one of the US ones.
This link contains that image (first & last of 3) https://t.me/ZandVchannel/73367
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 27 2023 15:46 utc | 27
Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2023 15:18 utc | 25
All a matter of probabilities. You might be killed by the Russians if you fight, you stand a very good chance of being killed by your own side if you try to surrender. Damned if you don’t, double damned if you do, is a choice in name only.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 15:47 utc | 28
Heated exchange between Irish MEP Clare Daly and Bulgarian MEP Angel DZHAMBAZKI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScahIlsgtlY [5 mins]
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 27 2023 16:02 utc | 29
Posted by: OohCanada | Jul 27 2023 15:08 utc | 21
Ukraine lost the war when Soledar fell. That broke their defensive line, they patch it, but they will not be able to put it together again.
As to launching an offensive, just study the past two months.
Their faith was definitely sealed when the vilnius summit produced next to nothing. What we see now is all end game. Which may take some time to play out.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 16:10 utc | 30
Any details on the main offensive,?
Some news channels are running with the story.
Ukraine launches ‘significant’ counteroffensive in the south, ISW report says
Posted by: jpc | Jul 27 2023 16:15 utc | 31
The Institute for the Study of War is a neocon think tank, or rather propaganda outfit. Icky Vicky is a fan.
wsj relies heavily on ISW words and maps for its own propaganda.
If ISW says anything get corroboration from a few different sources.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 27 2023 16:27 utc | 32
@jpc | Jul 27 2023 16:15 utc | 31
Ukraine launches ‘significant’ counteroffensive in the south, ISW report says
They are dying in very significant numbers, yes.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 27 2023 16:27 utc | 33
I posted this rather late in last major Ukraine thread so I’ll try again here. Thanks!:
“Perhaps this has already been discussed today but is anyone keeping track of how many Bradleys have been whacked so far…? The U.S. gov supposedly only gave 60 to start with, I haven’t kept track if they have sent more. The number of Bradleys removed so far must be at least 50 to 67%. General Omar B. would probably be turning red in the face at how his later namesake is turning out in another European location…”
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jul 27 2023 16:31 utc | 34
Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2023 15:18 utc | 25
Still no signs of widespread surrenders or multiple battalion sized capitulations.
I don’t think this war is propitious to large forces surrendering because of the typically large distance between opposing forces, predominantly artillery and drone attacks, very flat terrain, and deep rear areas for both forces. Large forces surrenders ussually occur after being surrounded. Most likely the collapse of Ukrainian forces will happen when the West stop paying or the Ukrainians run out of men, whichever comes first, and will take the form of disbanding to the rear, rather than surrendering.
Btw, thank you for welcoming me to the bar.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 27 2023 16:34 utc | 35
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jul 27 2023 16:31 utc | 34
The only thing the Bradley ever showed to be good for was getting soldiers killed, they have been a huge gift to the Russian side they are
likely hoping for more of them.
Posted by: qparker | Jul 27 2023 16:39 utc | 36
Posted by: qparker | Jul 27 2023 16:39 utc | 36
Same for its namesake, Huertgen Forest comes readily to mind. Not General Bradley’s finest moment.
Posted by: morongobill | Jul 27 2023 16:45 utc | 37
The Age of Colonialism = The Age of Plunder.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 27 2023 15:04 utc | 20
Colonisation by British ‘luckiest thing’ to happen to Australia – John Howard,
… His remarks were made in relation to a historic referendum due to take place this year on Indigenous recognition. If successful, the vote will change Australia’s constitution to give First Nations peoples a greater say over the laws and policies that affect them.
[…]
Speaking to [T]he Australian [n]ewspaper about the upcoming vote, Mr Howard described colonisation as “inevitable”. “I do hold the view that the luckiest thing that happened to this country was being colonised by the British,” he said. “Not that they were perfect by any means, but they were infinitely more successful and beneficent colonisers than other European countries.”…
On the occasion of Antony Blinken’s tour, 26-29 July, to establish US embassies in Pacific Island nations Tonga, Solomon Islands, Kirbati, and Vanuatu.
Blinken’s travel was announced a week after the State Department notified Congress that it plans a MASSIVE INCREASE in diplomatic personnel and spending for facilities at new U.S. embassies in the Pacific islands. The boost in the U.S. presence in the Pacific is in response to China’s increasing assertiveness there.
Echoing the language of Lord Robertson, NATO Gen-Sec of the 2002 GWOT,
…NATO enlargement means the definitive end of Europe’s Cold War division. NATO membership locks in the progress that these countries have made in political, economic and military terms. And it will spread the burden of security on more shoulders. That is why the enlargement process will take another decisive step forward at Prague.
Of course, enlargement is more than a selection process. Managing enlargement also means keeping the door open for future members. And it means continued engagement with all our [p]artners, whether they aspire to NATO membership or not. This is why a third element of NATO’s agenda, at Prague, will be to enhance and adapt the Alliance’s political and military [p]artnerships with countries across Europe and into Central Asia…
Blinken was heard to say today,
“On AUKUS as we continue to develop it … the door is very much open for New Zealand and other partners to engage as they see appropriate going forward,” Blinken told reporters in New Zealand. “We’ve long worked together on the most important national security issues, and so as we further develop AUKUS, as I said, the door is open to engagement.”
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 27 2023 16:54 utc | 38
“The soldiers are running out” (c)
Traditional disclaimer: I’m not a military man, I’m not an anonymous telegrammer, parties are hysterical from me, I don’t teach the General Staff to fight, I don’t fire generals, I don’t act in military porn, I don’t sit under Putin’s table. Instead of emotions, I work with numbers. I fix primuses, I bully fools. Therefore, everything below (the military unit) is the opinion of an amateur, including the results of listening / reading a whole bunch of real military (and not only) experts. Subjectively and does not claim to be the ultimate truth.
Today with mats, because fuck (Sufa krasaucheg) it’s impossible otherwise.
To understand what I will describe below, military education is not needed. These are obvious things that are almost impossible to argue with.
Two dumb fuckers geniuses of military thought (according to Arestovich) – Zaluzhny and Syrsky – continue to act in accordance with the latest developments in Western strategy.
The latest developments in Western strategy are what Field Marshal Haig practiced a hundred years ago. That is, “very slowly attack the enemy’s fortified positions through the minefields in the forehead, until all the attackers die” (c) “Blackadder”
British military traditions (already shed a tear).
This tells us that not only Syrsky and Zaluzhny are stupid degenerates, but also their Western masters and curators are the same illiterate imbeciles (we watch Martyanov’s videos, he analyzes in detail why this is so).
Accordingly, Syrsky is trying to attack Kleshcheevka (greetings to Sladkov by the collar), and Zaluzhny is trying to attack Rabotino. Both suck cock.
Every Reich should have its own “Borov” – a fat, swollen, self-satisfied boar. In the Third Reich, it was Goering, and in the non-Reich, it was Zalupny.
Yesterday, by the way, he set a record for the speed of disposal of Western equipment – at least 15 Leopards and a bunch of armored vehicles ditched at a time. It will be necessary to reward him (preferably posthumously).
I will quote the report: in the South-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, the enemy’s losses per day amounted to more than 280 Ukrainian servicemen, 25 tanks, ten infantry fighting vehicles, three armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, a combat vehicle of the RM-70 Vampire multiple launch rocket system Czech-made, as well as two howitzers “FH-70” made in the UK.
The result is zero, ours even returned some of the previously abandoned positions.
Meanwhile in the chief’s castle in the Kupyansk direction, our offensive has been developing for several days.
First, one small bridgehead appeared – I was silent so as not to jinx it. Then the second – I kept waiting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to transfer reserves and try to liquidate them (as military science teaches). Nothing like this. A third bridgehead appeared, and the first two merged. Then all three merged into one already serious “blob”.
With three protected crossings, the issue of supplies and reinforcements is successfully resolved. They began to push forward – and the APU fell down. At first, ours advanced 2-3 kilometers a day, then six. Every day, freeing several settlements. And then a large railway junction.
According to the theory, at each of these stages, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should transfer reserves to the area in order to stop the threat of an attack on Liman (to the south) and Kupyansk (to the north). But no. They stupidly continue to drive the remnants of the reserves to Kleshcheevka and Rabotino.
For you to understand: the pre-war population of Rabotino was 480 people. And in four days, the RF Armed Forces, with minimal losses, liberated more territory than the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied in a month of bloody “offensive”.
Conclusion: Gerasimov is a genius, Zaluzhny is a dumbass.
Another conclusion: a military coop who is not able to objectively cover this is also a bunch of fuckers (I emphasize, I am not a military expert, I have no special knowledge, I just work as Captain Obvious).
https://alexandr-rogers.livejournal.com/1686844.html
Posted by: Citan | Jul 27 2023 16:57 utc | 39
Algorithmic description of the Pentagon clowns
# Pseudo-code
numAvailableCannonFodder= getCannonFodder(maxAge)
While (numAvailableCannonFodder > 0 )
do
{ If (AttemptCounteroffensive() == “Failed”)
Printf(“Real counteroffensive hasn’t started yet. Just wait!”)
numAvailableCannonFodder -= 280 }
else {
Printf(“This is the real counteroffensive, media operatives!”)
}
done
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 27 2023 17:16 utc | 40
I don’t read the crap but Business Insider is running a piece on the Ukraine changing battle tactics, rather than attack with tanks they have decided to use artillery……hmm…. ‘it’s de planes boss, we need de planes’ credit to Herve.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 27 2023 17:24 utc | 41
@1 Jorgen
I’ll second that. That author is brilliant
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 27 2023 17:28 utc | 42
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 27 2023 17:16 utc | 40
That looks pretty good. My only possible suggestion might be to call getCannonFodder() inside the While loop also. Oh, wait…
Posted by: David Levin | Jul 27 2023 17:36 utc | 43
On the occasion of Antony Blinken’s tour, 26-29 July, to establish US embassies in Pacific Island nations Tonga, Solomon Islands, Kirbati, and Vanuatu.
Blinken was heard to say today,
“On AUKUS as we continue to develop it … the door is very much open for New Zealand and other partners to engage as they see appropriate going forward,” Blinken told reporters in New Zealand. “We’ve long worked together on the most important national security issues, and so as we further develop AUKUS, as I said, the door is open to engagement.”
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 27 2023 16:54 utc | 38
———————————————————————–
I just want to thank the one (was it james?) linked to an article by aurelien the other day. The Substack has a lot of very good material!
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 27 2023 13:28 utc | 1
———————————————————–
Aurelian does a great job of dissecting NATO and NATO expansionism. Not Blinken nor neocon friendly.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 27 2023 17:52 utc | 44
This battle was decided when the SMO started. Just the details need to be sorted now. How much area will be absorbed into Russia proper, what security means Russia installs to protect said area and the absolute humiliation of the “west” (which they seem to do a good job of themselves)
Posted by: Watzov | Jul 27 2023 18:18 utc | 46
Julian @ 11
Given your timeline, it is extremely unlikely there will be any advances of any significance by either Ukraine or Russia between now and November – despite what the likes of Scott Ritter may claim.
The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.
RESPONSE: Julian, you may very well be correct. Thanks for your analysis.
I am not proposing a timeline when stating that General Weather has his cyclic rains for Ukraine coming around late November.
The strange thing about the future is that it is most elusive in trying to figure out.
The fog of war is nothing compared to the fog of the future.
The problem with attempting to determine the future is that often factors change the course of events that are not even known at the time our predictions.
Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 18:33 utc | 47
‘Rushed’ due to POTUS terminal illnesses, Ukrainewar stress increased fatality potential
Underground market now exchanging [50hryvnia to 1usd] after failure
Counter-offensive was ‘ambushed’ & completely destroyed
Usa-Christian evangelicals unknowingly supported zzelensky, by contributing to black-jesus
Blue1 ‘food’ additive, vegan classified, derives from gasoline
Sullivan access limited
10,000 Ukraine soldiers AWOL during training (worldwide)
Commemorative memorabilia celebrating newest R regions
Poor machining quality, handmade-switchblade, ungrinded unbuffed parts
R Advanced ICU underground trench resembles actual sanitary hospital
handheld squad pointman device, thermal, acoustic, motion detection (freq 30–300 GHz), lastmile proximity scouting
50k R tank reserve, enough to seize little island and hold
Posted by: Merlin | Jul 27 2023 18:40 utc | 48
… Conclusion: Gerasimov is a genius, …
Posted by: Citan | Jul 27 2023 16:57 utc | 39
I wonder what the actual division of labour is within RF General staff. The front is known as the Surovikin line, after all, not the Gerasimov line.
Likewise, if we are to attribute to Gerasimov all the significant events of SMO, him being a genius by your estimation, he should be asked if he thinks Kakhovka HPP would still be standing if its defense had been handed over to Wagner from the outset.
Food for thought.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 27 2023 18:52 utc | 49
laguerre @ 26
Posted by: Julian | Jul 27 2023 14:19 utc | 11
The issue will be when, or perhaps if, the Ukrainian front collapses. It’s difficult to see how it could last all that long. They’re constantly getting themselves in a mess, and losing large amounts of weaponry, and numbers of men. On the other hand, the Russians aren’t going to launch a major offensive. It’ll be like in Syria. No advance was ever made until the jihadis were ready to collapse, and the Syrians/Russians could just walk in. That’ll happen, I think, but I couldn’t say when.
RESPONSE: laguerre, I agree with your regarding the Russians. It does appear that the Russians are not so aggressive. The problem with not being aggressive is that you can find yourself out maneuvered on the battle field. Regardless of how much fire power you have, if you find yourself out maneuvered, it can be a really bad situation. Maybe, this is why the Russians attempt to keep their lines as straight as possible.
Russia’s most aggressive unit was the Wagners. And now they are elsewhere, Belarus, Africa, but not in Ukraine.
Maybe Shogiu is incorporating some of the previous Wagner commanders into his army to up their aggressiveness?
Maybe someone with some front line battle experience needs to be sitting around Putin. Neither Shogiu nor Gerasimov have any actual front line battle experience.
Maybe, that would not be so bad. But, according to Prigozhin, they don’t listen to their front line commanders.
Maybe, the Russian army has some serious problems that Prigozhin was attempting to point out.
Maybe, Prigozhin was not entirely wrong about his assessments. Perhaps, he is a much better commander than he has been credit for being.
Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 19:03 utc | 50
nuland’s hubby and his family are big part of isw.
expert in context of neocon think tank is misleading…. propagandist are called experts by msm wrt covid and ukranaziStan….
Posted by: paddy | Jul 27 2023 19:17 utc | 51
The problem with not being aggressive is that you can find yourself out maneuvered on the battle field.
Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 19:03 utc | 50
I.E. Bang, bang! American aggressivity is the thing.
I should think Putin knows what he’s doing, in his choice of not doing that. If it was vital to be aggressive, it would be done, I think. For example, if there were a NATO/Ukrainian buildup threatening the Russian position. But there isn’t.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 27 2023 19:24 utc | 52
Posted by: Julian | Jul 27 2023 14:19 utc | 11
The Ukrainian front will collapse in places as their forces are attritted and the AFU moves units to shore up the weakest points, leaving some areas indefensible. I believe the Russian army is ready to exploit these weaknesses and will advance quickly when such holes open up. No huge advances but significant ones. Advancing to the Oskil river is certainly a possibility. I don’t see how the AFU can lose this amount of armored vehicles and artillery and continue to defend the entire front. And they are doing this by choice, throwing their units at defended positions and delivering their forces to the Russians to be destroyed.
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jul 27 2023 16:31 utc | 34
It’s almost like the Russians are providing the Lancets with priority targeting of the Bradleys.
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 27 2023 19:33 utc | 53
Looks like AFU managed to capture Staramayorske and consequentially is threatening Urozhaine in the Vremievka ledge. Without further knowledge, the front may move back a notch. Haven’t followed any details though, Military summary released a new video.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 19:38 utc | 54
Posted by: qparker | Jul 27 2023 16:39 utc | 36
So we go from Leopard bashing to Bradley bashing. There’s nothing wrong with the Bradley, it’s the usual compromise that all designers face, with priorities that are decided by the doctrine that platform is designed to fulfil. Significantly superior to most competitors, apart from its mobility, and significantly upgraded since inception the Bradley though is suffering the fate of all platforms that are placed in situations they were not designed for. The effect of this misuse is then magnified by its crews lacking experience. Finally the Bradley, like all IFV’s in this conflict, are a generation behind the weapons now being deployed against it and as a result suffering badly.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 19:40 utc | 55
How is it possible that Ukrainians still attack?
Are their resources endless?
Posted by: Simplex | Jul 27 2023 19:47 utc | 56
According to MOD report, AFU lost 25 tanks in the Zaporozhye front. Their tank losses since June 4th in this area is running well over 300 now. Recall that the Nato trained and equipped brigades constituted about 400 (maybe a bit more) in their TO&E.
MOD report also said that AFU is using their strategic reserves to conduct these attacks. Military summary also claimed yesterday that AFU sent their last Nato brigade to halt RU offensive in the Kupyansk-Svatove sector.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 19:52 utc | 57
Posted by: young | Jul 27 2023 19:03 utc | 50
Think like a man of action, act like a man of thought. The Russian’s have been more aggressive than their opponents wanted, but far more cautious than their opponents had wished for.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 19:54 utc | 58
@Simplex
“Are their resources endless?”
Their resources of fanatical Nazis are.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 27 2023 19:54 utc | 59
@ It’s almost like the Russians are providing the Lancets with priority targeting of the Bradleys.
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 27 2023 19:33 utc | 53
From what i have read. The newest Lancets have AI that is able to seek out, identify, and strike, targets without remote control. It can also seek out preferred targets. It is immune to jamming.
Russia also has a “Tank Killer” ground Vehicle called Marker, that has similar tech. Carries drones, ATGMs ect. It can be sent into battle to seek and destroy enemy armor.
Hunter killer robots are here. It seems Russia is leading the way.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 27 2023 20:02 utc | 60
@Simplex
“Are their resources endless?”
Resources are finite.
Stupidity is endless.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 27 2023 20:06 utc | 61
@ Milities, #55
Just to be clear, I wasn’t necessarily bashing the Bradleys, I just want to know how many had been smoked since they were first used if 60 was still the number of units the U.S. government had supplied. Then again, do we trust numbers from the U.S. gov…?
I agree that IVFs are now outclassed by a weapon as good as the Russian Lancet. If the Ukies had something comparable, Russian armor would also be in trouble but the American Switchblade proved to be a flop compared to the Lancet. I suspect that the NATO whiz kids are working day and night on trying to find something to counter the Lancet. In the tradition of the AK rifles, RPGs, and GRADs, the Lancet may go down as one of those fairly simple but rugged Russian made weapons that have impacted ground combat for decades.
We’ll see…
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jul 27 2023 20:13 utc | 62
Simplex @ 56
How is it possible that Ukrainians still attack? Are their resources endless?
They most certainly aren’t running out of artillery ammunition, I can’t believe many of the savvy peeps here fell for that psyops media propaganda. Last thing anyone running out as ammunition is going to do is announce it to the enemy. It was all about the lead up to Cluster Bomb Fiesta and creating acceptance among western zombie populace for introduction of illegal, amoral weapons. Not sure what Fiesta is next, at least after F-16 Fiesta is effected in the fall? Reckon Nukes Fiesta, give me a spin and let me at the piñata!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 27 2023 20:14 utc | 63
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 19:38 utc | 54
So now we see why the Pentagon went through that pitiful rebranding effort, they want to forget the last 51 days and start claiming D+1-2 objectives are being captured so the offensive is on track. Ok then, let’s hold them to the devalued offensive timetable, Tolmak in 48 hours, Melitopol in 72 hours. Clocks ticking.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 20:21 utc | 65
How is it possible that Ukrainians still attack? Are their resources endless?
Posted by: Simplex | Jul 27 2023 19:47 utc | 56
Hardware? they have plenty. Most of it old crap but in large numbers combined with hundreds of spy satellites Russia doesn’t have. Lots of soldiers too for the moment, the daily kill is too small to see problems. And don’t forget they’re not doing anything for them, for their country or whatever. they’re zombie kamikaze. Ukr does not exist anymore. Ukr soldier count can reach zero, nato has no problem killing all of them and locals are retards in pure form. And they haven’t even started nuclear terrorism yet. Or maybe they’re waiting for nato bases before they do it.
Posted by: rk | Jul 27 2023 20:35 utc | 66
Our only hope is aliens or angels.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Jul 27 2023 13:26 utc | 285
Yes, I second that, very interesting piece.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 27 2023 13:40 utc | 4
What is this in reference to?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 27 2023 20:39 utc | 67
Military summary:
-AFU offensive in Robotino is directed on the fields east of Robotino
-Judging by the amount of stuff AFU directed to those fields, they are not only trying to gain fire control of the road south from Robotino but also storm the settlement south of it
-AFU has not succeeded taking any area W of Robotino, which is RU controlled
-AFU took Staramayorske, the front may move back from here including from Urozhaine
-RU moved more stuff like Grad to shell AFU positions in Krasnogorovka (N of Maryinka)
-Also clashes N of Krasnogorovka, in Nevelske
-Kleschevka little updates / static
-AFU stopped their attacks in Soledar-Yakovlivka-Berestove area, probably due to lack of ammunition
-The RU bridgehead across Zerebets river is 12 x 3 km (length x width)
-Counter-artillery duels in the Kherson / Antonovsky bridgehead continue
-UKR is blockaded by RU navy, no practical way to trade their grain with outside world currently
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 20:43 utc | 68
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 20:21 utc | 65
Well, you said it. According to MSM:
AFU attack running on fumes after 7 weeks of banging head against the wall = the primary phase of AFU offensive just started.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 20:45 utc | 69
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 19:40 utc | 55
So we go from Leopard bashing to Bradley bashing. There’s nothing wrong with the Bradley,
—-
At the time it was first built, there was a big fight over the tendency of its aluminum armor to incinerate everyone inside it.
To its critics, the vehicle is a deathtrap — they’ve nicknamed it “the Ronson” — that could incinerate the men inside if hit by enemy fire.
“. . . in combat the Bradley Fighting Vehicle will be a rolling deathtrap for the squad it carries. The vehicle’s armor is made of aluminum, a metal whose chemical energy when oxidized is ten times greater than that of TNT. When hit by the right type of grenade, mortar, mine, or rocket, this aluminum can be counted on to kill the American soldiers whose lives it is supposed to protect . . . And yet production of the Bradley continues.”
— William Boly, California Magazine, February 1983.
WaPo: The man who made war on a weapon
Interestingly, from an internet censorship POV, you can’t find that Boly article with Google. In fact the only thing I found was someone on Ebay offering to sell an old issue of the magazine. It was the cover story, “Made in California”. The cover shows a lemon labeled US Army leaving tread marks on the ground .
Wikipedia states this was fixed:
The use of aluminum armor and the storage of large quantities of ammunition in the vehicle initially raised questions about its combat survivability. Spaced laminate belts and high-hardness steel skirts have been added to improve the side protection of later versions,
I have no idea if they hardened the top surface, where all these kamikaze drones tend to hit.
Bottom line, the design of the Bradley was fundamentally flawed from the beginning. They’ve been patching it for forty years. This is the first test against a peer adversary. It fails like all the other junk the MIC has peddled the Pentagon.
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 27 2023 20:46 utc | 70
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 27 2023 20:46 utc | 70
The Bradley is a Bud Light can on tracks.
It cant hold a candle to a Russian BMP3.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 27 2023 21:27 utc | 71
I saw picts of Bradleys now fitted with reactive armor, are you all sure the thing is made of aluminum?
As for the west running out of stuff, they have it to throw away and then some and that’s exactly what they are doing. With USA and 50 vassals contributing it is clear they have all the machines and munitions they need, 78 ys of accumulated good enough stuff.
They must sell this war to their zombie publics, they have to look hesitant and unwilling worthy of honest and good tempered democrats, then they want a fearful public to support buying ten times more, ten times more expensive better crap. That’s what’s behind hesitancy and stories of running out of everything.
“Lets throw away a tank just to test if it can get across the ditch”:
https://t.me/swodki/286954
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 27 2023 21:44 utc | 72
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 27 2023 20:46 utc | 70
It was not fundamentally flawed from the beginning, it was a vehicle designed for a specific purpose, the media led an agenda driven campaign as they had about any number of platforms, F-15, Maverick etc. The US Army did not help with childish tests, e.g. firing Bulgarian RPG rounds closer than their arming distance at a Bradley containing water soaked dummies, but that was because an RPG-7 round could not be stopped by any IFV at the time and they knew the media would misrepresent the tests. The Bradley was designed to fight a Cold-War Soviet Army, which it would have done effectively, it was not designed to assault fixed defensive lines, under constant fire from its FUP to the FEBA. Neither was it designed to fight in a counter insurgency role in Iraq, but when it fought their conventionally it killed more tanks than the M1.
Your criticisms could be applied to any IFV in existence today. The BMP-3 is more lightly armoured, carries three types of explosive ammunition organically, not including rockets for its infantry contingent, and the infantry have to be contortionists to exit the vehicle. The Cv-90 has good protection/cannon but no defence against armour and the Warrior is British, so say no more. You can argue that for IFV’s to survive in a 21st Century conflict they need a radical rethink or reversion (obsolete tanks converted to the role), but you cannot criticise the Bradley for its form when its function has been repeatedly changed, a process it had already gone through at the design stage. Bottom, line, what would you have designed to replace the M-113 to combat the BMP-1?
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 21:51 utc | 73
It is time to see through the fog and see things clearly and name them correctly.
For a long, long time it has been called the ‘Russo – Ukrainian’ war as though Russia were at war with Ukraine instead of really, trying to help it, inasmuch as stop the Kiev part destroying, oppressing, invading, conquering, murdering, the Donbas part – i.e. stop a country murdering itself.
But what to call it then? The ‘Kiev Ukraine – Donbas Ukraine’ Civil war with supporting players would be accurate but unwieldy, wrong.
But that thinking is ‘the fog’. There’s a large ugly elephant in the room and we just don’t see it, don’t speak about it. But this is it:
It is the ‘USA-Ukraine’ war.
The USA is at war with Ukraine. The USA seeks to destroy Ukraine utterly. Doesn’t it? I think it virtually admits it, boasts of it.
The USA is at war with Europe. The USA is at war with Germany.
There is one enormous ugly evil elephant in the room and we all blather on and on and on and never name it. Step around it, over it, under it – anything but confront it and name it.
We have a war going in in Europe. We have a number of them. And they are all American wars.
And this particular little one is the ‘Ukraine – US’ war.
We could begin tallying the losses and gains. And we should. How much in debt to the USA is Ukraine now? How much land has the US ‘purchased’ as of now? How many of their businesses does the US own now? How many contracts does the US currently own pledging future benefits to the US?
Expand into the surrounding wars and do the same thing: how much has the US profited by in regard to its war with Germany? Add up the losses and the gains.
If we once drop the foggy lenses we seem to be looking through we could perhaps begin to table clear and accurate spreadsheets and summaries showing just exactly how these wars are going. The US is winning handsomely I think. It would make every American’s heart swell with pride at this particular juncture of their national development perhaps if they could see such publications.
America’s progress in its war against the whole Western World.
Beginning with the stats for the ‘US – Ukraine’ war.
Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 27 2023 22:01 utc | 74
Rusnya surprise for the mykorolas in Stayomayorsk which was abandoned by Z earlier today.
“>https://t.me/gzvonews/7885
Looks like a TOS salvo in Staramayorsk village. Maybe they waited to see if AFU came in en-masse to grab it.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 27 2023 22:33 utc | 75
If the loud-mouthed Yankees can’t win a fake war with Russia in Ukraine, what are their chances of winning a real war with China, in China?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 27 2023 15:15 utc | 23
Don’t sell them short. They’re currently winning handsomely. They are at war with the whole world and the world doesn’t even seem to know it.
The put forward a lying narrative using false terminology and everyone adopts it.
I am not a fit person, a qualified person, to judge or pronounce but it’s my opinion for what its worth that the USA says baldly to ALL the world that if they go down then ALL the world goes down.
Meaning, of course, not the people but the monied interests.
EVERYONE has their wealth in American dollars. If the dollar loses value EVERYONE loses value.
So even if you move your wealth into other things you’re still in an environment where everything is valued in American dollars.
Big things and little things. Like personal wealth and national wealth.
America enjoys exorbitant privilege is what it is all about and I imagine there could be no real persons of knowledge in the world of governance and finance that doesn’t know this. It essentially means they get everything from the world for free. And get to pour money into their own country however they like.
Enviable situation. Everyone would bring them down, remove this ‘privilege’ if they could I’m sure. But they don’t. Because they can’t. They’re not organised and they’re dependent on the status quo.
Day by day America gets richer and more powerful. America is at war with Europe, with the whole of the West, with, in fact, the whole World and I’m sure their ‘top dogs’ see it in that way.
In the end they must lose. But I imagine it will be a long drawn out business. It’s progress I expect to be marked by changes in the exchange rate of the dollar. There’s the marker. Showing how the USA is doing in its brazen war with the world (just destroyed the whole German nation !). And what does the marker show right now? America getting stronger.
Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 27 2023 22:42 utc | 76
@60 gold digger
Putin has directly said the nations that can master AI will be the leaders. There’s no doubt russia is betting its rubles on it big time.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 27 2023 22:49 utc | 77
@76 Arthur brogand.
I think it would be instructive to ask who got the Europeans 1 trillion+ dollars in energy subsidies they’ve spent to buffer price increases due to embargoed russian energy.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 27 2023 23:06 utc | 78
@77 Neofeudalfuture
When I first read Putins statement about AI. I thought Russia has many cards they have yet to lay on the table. Putin is not a boastful man.
The Okhotnik (Hunter) drone is quite a nice piece of work. There is speculation that it has ben “Tested” in Ukraine.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 28 2023 0:05 utc | 79
@Julian 11
Quote “Given the way Russia handles the sensitivities of its friends – there will be no big Russian attacks or advances to embarrass any of South Africa, India or China.”
Russia always thinks and acts contrary to come on sense. Bric countries would have. Ore resect for Russia if she had finished the job soon. Russia. Allies are disappointed in weakness shown by Russia on all fronts. 4 months sitting on backside?
Posted by: Sam | Jul 28 2023 0:17 utc | 80
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 27 2023 20:14 utc | 63
In the Bakhmut region, the AFU is using mostly cluster munitions to shell Russian positions. Are they more effective than a 155 mm high explosive round? Probably not in these conditions, where the Russian infantry is protected in defensive mode and the best tactic for the AFU is to destroy artillery pieces and armored vehicles. A munition that disperses a number of grenade sized explosives, meant as an anti-personnel round, is not likely to do that. Tells me that this is all they’ve got.
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 28 2023 0:20 utc | 81
Because Greece sent a lot of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, I think it is relevant to post on the fires in Greece reaching a major ammunition depot, which stored bombs and ammunition for Greek F-16, exploding. Greece are also relocating military aircraft from the base near there.
Military aircraft to be relocated after explosions at air force ammunition depot in Central Greece
Fire reaches ammunition storage facility storing bombs and ammunition for Greek F-16 fighters, 6 km north of major military air base in Nea Anchialos
https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/07/28/military-aircraft-to-be-relocated-after-wildfires-threaten-air-force-base-in-nea-anchialos-area/
https://twitter.com/Zroy34/status/1684719633171927040
Posted by: MiniMo | Jul 28 2023 0:41 utc | 82
Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2023 21:51 utc | 73
First, thanks for the detailed response. I stopped being a military tech junkie several decades ago. I’m more interested in the economic impact of military spending on the economy, not just how it kills infrastructure investment, but how it warps industries and career choices.
Let me give you my amateur opinion. Not trying to say your wrong. Just trying to answer your questions.
it was a vehicle designed for a specific purpose, the media led an agenda driven campaign…The Bradley was designed to fight a Cold-War Soviet Army, which it would have done effectively,
From what I remember, NATO was completely outnumbered. Their plan was a fighting withdrawl, eventually leading to tactical nukes. I’m not exactly sure what you mean by effectively. Picking up troops from the current front line and hauling them to the fallback front line would seem to be its major task. For that task, survivability is key.
Your criticisms could be applied to any IFV in existence today…You can argue that for IFV’s to survive in a 21st Century conflict they need a radical rethink or reversion (obsolete tanks converted to the role),
Well actually, yes, that’s what I would argue. I think that the idea that some small caliber gun on a minimally armored platform is the best tradeoff is dumb. They have tried to upgrade the armor ever since the first model.
The original Bradley fighting vehicle weighed 33.6 tons, utilizing high laminate 7000 series aluminum as a lightweight armor. The Bradley -A2 variant improved armor protection with spaced laminate belts and steel side skirts to protect the tracks. Finally, the -A3 version incorporates so-called reactive armor, shoebox-sized panels of explosives attached to the outside of the vehicle designed to defeat the shaped charge warheads of anti-tank rockets and missiles.
Today, nearly four decades after joining the U.S. Army, the M2 is showing its age. The Army has gradually piled on new tech, in many cases bolting it to the outside of the vehicle. One improvement it hasn’t been able to pile on, however, is armored protection. Passive armor, in the form of steel, aluminum, composites, ceramics, or even depleted uranium has weight to it. Weight increases stress to the vehicle’s transmission and makes it more sluggish.
– Popular Mechanics, 2020, The Army Is Trying To Replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. Again.
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…but you cannot criticise the Bradley for its form when its function has been repeatedly changed, a process it had already gone through at the design stage.
Oh, but I can criticize the endless churn of contracts and upgrades and maintenance that is the lifeblood of MIC profits. Its been easier to keep “upgrading” the Bradley instead of building something better. And that’s why today’s military is operating stuff that was first designed forty or fifty years ago and is being kept from obsolescence by upgrade after upgrade.
Bottom, line, what would you have designed to replace the M-113 to combat the BMP-1?
Well, I’m not a designer. Again, from my murky memory, wasn’t the BMP-1 criticized for its awkward access and its light armor? Nobody had a good design for an IFV. They all copied each other and used the other guy’s equipment to frighten the government into developing an equivalent. If the Soviets built an armored radish, General Buck Turgidson would be screaming about the radish gap.
What has always been needed is survivability. That’s why the Israelis (who are sensitive to casualties) have converted T-55s, Chieftans, and even their own Merkava tanks into IFVs. The Merkava conversion, called Namer, is the most heavily armored vehicle in the world by some accounts.
If IFVs are going to be effective, they need to survive the modern battlefield. They need to counter drones, ATGMs, and the kind of missles fired by the Ka-52. Skip the guns until you can insure survivability.
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 28 2023 1:01 utc | 83
I’m not entering the climate debate. What I will say is that the record for the most consecutive days over 100°f was in 1978 here. A hundred miles south of the Oregon border. I’m old, have seen a lot. Maybe too old. But this has been the mildest summer I’ve seen in years. It’s almost August and I still have to wear a sweater at night. Usually, you have to run the cooler/ac all night. Take this for what it’s worth, from a guy who has been around the block. Or not. I don’t fucking care.
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Jul 28 2023 1:11 utc | 84
Some videos for today.
Russian airborne troops storm enemy fortified position, take prisoners:
https://rutube.ru/video/1b5d38117e91bd9b8a245d0689de7fcd/
Russian Lancets continue destroying US-supplied Bradleys and other enemy military equipment:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-07-27_00-37-46:0
Russian ATGMs obliterate enemy armored column:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-07-27_19-17-15:f
Russian Ka-52 destroys enemy tank:
https://rutube.ru/video/48d210f6b82de704ad03a6c8c2bc597a/
Kiev regime vehicle gets blown to smithereens:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-07-27_18-17-43:c
Precise Russian drone strike takes out enemy ATGM firing position:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/p0ipipjljj:a
Russian Grad launcher pounds enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/ab431458712011936729e2329e4e0d98/
Russian Msta-B howitzer pounds enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/7fb62f5e1c09446feef4bb2ede3e01dd/
Posted by: Nate | Jul 28 2023 1:18 utc | 85
Apologies, this probably belongs in the OT section.
But I fear visiting that rabbit hole.
Apparently Wikileaks has just dumped everything it had online.
Posted by: Suresh | Jul 28 2023 1:29 utc | 86
The Age of Colonialism = The Age of Plunder.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 27 2023 15:04 utc | 20
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Neo-Colonialism = The Modern Age of Plunder.
Posted by: Ed | Jul 28 2023 2:05 utc | 87
Apparently Wikileaks has just dumped everything it had online.
Posted by: Suresh | Jul 28 2023 1:29 utc | 86
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Sorry, but what does that mean?
Posted by: Ed | Jul 28 2023 2:08 utc | 88
Lightning Advance 10km: Russian Armies Reach Oskol River and Enter South Kharkiv – Ukraine Sends All Reserves
The Russians have captured the train station and are marching in
https://warnews247.gr/proelasi-keravnos-10-chlm-to-koupiansk-se-tanalia-oi-rosikes-straties-eftasan-ston-potamo-oskol-kai-bikan-notio-charkovo-i-oukrania-metakinei-oles-tis-efedreies/
Demilitarization of Bulgaria as well: “Green light” from Sofia for the delivery of 100 BTR tanks to Ukraine. The Russian BTRs are from the mid eighties, never used.
https://warnews247.gr/apostratikopoiisi-kai-ti-voulgarias-prasino-fos-apo-tin-sofia-gia-tin-paradosi-100-tob-btr-stin-oukrania/
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 28 2023 2:36 utc | 89
Posted by: Ed | Jul 28 2023 2:08 utc | 88
Some of this maybe common knowledge now, I believe they did so before in slow drips.
https://file.wikileaks.org/file/
https://file.wikileaks.org/file/clinton-emails/
Simplicius alludes to the Polish sneaking into Galicia and crossing Belarus’ Red Line.
I wonder if that’s one of the many reasons Russia had to pull out of the Grain Deal, to prevent the 101st AA Div moving into Odessa as a pretext of “Humanitarian” aid.
Shiogu’s in North Korea, more ammo or maybe even men?
Russian navy ship just docked in Cuba and a Cuban Minister has mentioned stationing Russian missiles there.
Look like Niger has just joined the Wagner love-in crowd of Mali, CAR and Barkina Faso
Posted by: Suresh | Jul 28 2023 3:04 utc | 90
About armored vehicles: WWII witnessed demise of battleship concept, naval battles were decided by who eliminates aircraft carriers (and aircrafts) of the other side, for all the steel, explosives and blood expended in lesser battles — aircrafts could not be everywhere, and pilot training was a bottleneck (Japanese circumvented it to a degree with kamikaze pilots who required less training).
Drone warfare experiences analogous bottlenecks, but armored vehicles seem like battleships and cruisers of WWII, still needed, but on the way out. That said, the logic of modern warfare is hard to grasp. To control territory, the boots on the ground are necessary, to gain territory, the “boots” have to move braving fire and mines. One solution, to encase them in armor when they are most vulnerable, becomes obsolete. But we want our side to advance (say people on both sides). Send them on cross-terrain bikes with ejection seats (deployed on mines?) Surround them with various remote control devices, drones, demining etc.?
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 28 2023 3:16 utc | 91
This is a forward by Eric Draitser of Counterpunch for an article by Boris Kagarlitsky, who was recently arrested in Russia for his criticism of the of the war on his blog. He has been released but he does face charges (?)..I do not know enough about Kagarlitsky to make a judgement about his legal situation, but I can say for a fact that if Eric Draitser is supporting him that I am leery of him, and his views, already. Eric is one of those “lefties” at Counterpunch who turned into a neo-liberal and now supports Biden’s proxy war against Russia.
In his introduction to Boris Kagarlitsky article that you can read at today’s Counterpunch (frankly, I think he does protest too much!), Eric says this: “I am fortunate enough to call Boris a comrade and have welcomed him to Counterpunch Radio several times, including last September when he and I discussed the motivations behind Putin’s criminal war, the role of NATO, Russian imperialism… “Boris’s detention is also a reminder of the cancerous politics of the utterly discredited and morally bankrupt sections of the Left that have downplayed Russian crimes, tacitly or overtly justified Russian aggression under the false banner of “anti-imperialism,” and otherwise provided left-wing cover for this war of imperial revanchism.”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/07/27/idiots-no-longer-useful/
I think that Eric should look at Joe Bidens overt aggression against people like Julian Assange and concern himself with issues like the US/NATO international imperial revanchism in Vietnam, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, and the whole of Latin America and the Caribbean Basin, which Eric seems to have no problem with. The last time I checked NATO was moving towards Russia, not the other way around: So, fuck you, Eric.
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Eric’s Forward.
Renowned author, sociologist, and dissident Boris Kagarlitsky has been arrested on trumped-up political charges. Whether he’s facing indictments for “promoting extremism” or “discrediting the armed forces of the Russian Federation,” or “terrorism” or “treason” is a distinction without a difference in contemporary Russia, where political show trials have become the norm for those who choose the speak the truth about Russia’s criminal war in Ukraine and its degenerate ruling class of oligarchs and Kremlin apparatchiks.
As of this writing, Kagarlitsky has been sent to pre-trial detention in the remote republic of Komi, an isolated territory just west of the Ural Mountains, where he awaits a kangaroo court “trial” set for September 24, 2023. It is no coincidence that he has been sent to this isolated region where even his legal representatives have difficulty reaching him, rather than being held in Moscow or St. Petersburg, where he might have access to a network of supporters, friends, journalists and fellow activists.
Boris Kagarlitsky has for decades been a powerful voice for socialism and Marxism in Russia and around the world. His arrest and detention only further illustrate the power of his incisive analysis and steadfast determination to resist the increasingly authoritarian and fascist nature of Putin’s Russia. While this isn’t his first arrest – he faced charges several years ago as a candidate for Moscow city government office – this latest repression is concerning as the Russian state has imposed increasingly draconian charges and sentences for even minor antiwar activities.
CounterPunch has been publishing Kagarlitsky’s writing for years. I am fortunate enough to call Boris a comrade and have welcomed him to CounterPunch Radio several times, including last September when he and I discussed the motivations behind Putin’s criminal war, the role of NATO, Russian imperialism, and much more. Boris’s detention is also a reminder of
the cancerous politics of the utterly discredited and morally bankrupt sections of the Left that have downplayed Russian crimes, tacitly or overtly justified Russian aggression under the false banner of “anti-imperialism,” and otherwise provided left-wing cover for this war of imperial revanchism.
Counterpunch is proud to stand with Boris Kagarlitsky and to oppose this political persecution at the hands of Putin’s regime. We demand his immediate release and stand in solidarity with all his colleagues at Rabkor, throughout Russia, and worldwide.
Eric Draitser
July 26, 2023
Posted by: Ed | Jul 28 2023 3:26 utc | 92
@ karlof1 | Jul 27 2023 15:04 utc | 20
yours “The Age of Colonialism = The Age of Plunder” is correct, formally. However, the underlying truth is the it was the ‘Age of the Stronger’. That age is now over and done.
Posted by: fanto | Jul 28 2023 3:30 utc | 93
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 28 2023 1:01 utc | 83
Oh, but I can criticize the endless churn of contracts and upgrades and maintenance that is the lifeblood of MIC profits. Its been easier to keep “upgrading” the Bradley instead of building something better. And that’s why today’s military is operating stuff that was first designed forty or fifty years ago and is being kept from obsolescence by upgrade after upgrade.
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John, OTOH if you want new gear it takes an act of Congress, RFIs, RFPs, Proposal Evaluation, awarding a contract, buying off the losing bidders and IV&Vs to ensure compliance with the procurement. All done by contractors with margins. It also takes a lot of time
If you wreck an aircraft, it is better to bring in the plate from the wreck so that maintenance can build a new airplane around it. Same for all other war gear.
The US Navy procured the Super Hornet as an upgrade, not as a new weapons program. Congress was mad as hornets.
The Russians have state industries and skip all the nonsense. There are also no multiple layers of markup. In one of my contracts in 2002, the government was billed for $175 per hour, while received $95, multiple layers sharing the difference.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 28 2023 3:36 utc | 94
@79 gold digger
Yes, around sumy. Brief reports said that the Ukrainians were surprised by the strike, no air raid sirens. It can carry a large load, and is going through improvement iterations with serial production coming later this year.only test models are flying right now.
The ohotnik promises to be lancet effective but from up high. It’ll be exciting to see how it stacks up against other drones. It’s size and stealth set it apart although I understand it’s stealthiness still needs upgrades.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 28 2023 3:43 utc | 95
One can only stand back aghast and say WTF??
IMF facilitating fraud, profiteering and reversing the nationalization of Kolomosky’s fraudulent Privaate Bank to the tune of billions; it will continue as long as the us and nato continue paying and the govt survives under the delusion that Ukraine is”winning.”
Gad, what planet are these IMF people on?
https://johnhelmer.org/cash-is-king-of-the-thieves-in-the-ukraine-according-to-the-imf-chief-accountant-to-the-thieves-den/#more-71041
Posted by: Taras 77 | Jul 28 2023 3:49 utc | 96
@ Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 27 2023 20:39 utc | 67
see bemildreds post @ 5 and then go read the link @ 1.. cheers
Posted by: james | Jul 28 2023 3:50 utc | 97
Regarding AI, SF author PKD had insights into the future so compelling that some believe he was on to something when he wrote of his having visions. IIRC Putin has someone with “a gift” that he consults with, so maybe he too has some faith.
The basis for the film Screamers, starring Peter Weller, which showed the danger of AI gone rogue, was PKD’s Second Variety.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Variety
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 28 2023 5:09 utc | 98
Bulgaria agrees to send heavy military equipment to Ukraine
Bulgaria has agreed to provide the Ukrainian army with some 100 armored personnel carriers.
Direct arms supplies were rejected by previous interim governments, appointed by President Rumen Radev. He is sympathetic to Russia and recently said that Ukraine was to be blamed for the war and that supplying arms to Ukraine only prolongs the conflict.
The parliament in Sofia late Friday approved by 148 votes to 52 the government’s proposal to make the first shipment of heavy military equipment to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
“>https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-ukraine-armored-carriers-military-aid-7f256492a063c154ca614c18ab95aced
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 28 2023 5:28 utc | 99
@ 95 Neofeudalfuture
Perhaps all the sealth upgrades the Ohotnik needs are the removal of sheet metal covers 😉
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 28 2023 5:45 utc | 100