Ukraine Open Thread 2023-177

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July 24, 2023

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by on July 24, 2023 at 16:42 UTC | Permalink

Comments

b,
I hope the barflies are generous with donations in these tough times, We need your continued analysis. Thank you.

Posted by: Paul GV | Jul 24 2023 16:48 utc | 1

Unfortunatelly the West is going to escalate this war. They see no risc in this war.
How can Russia make this war more expensive for the colectice west?

Posted by: simplex | Jul 24 2023 16:56 utc | 2

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (24 July 2023)
The AFU continued unsuccessful attempts at offensive actions in Krasny Liman and Donetsk directions.
In Donetsk direction, as a result of coordinated and active actions by units of the Yug Group of Forces, aviation and artillery, six enemy attacks have been successfully repelled near Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Kleshcheevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, enemy units have been hit close to Veseloye, Bogdanovka, Predtechino, Belaya Gora and Dyleevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 160 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two motor vehicles, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, one British-manufactured FH-70 howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
One ammunition depot of the AFU 110th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed near Avdeevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of active actions by aviation, artillery, heavy flamethrower systems, and units the Tsentr Group of Forces, five enemy attacks have been repelled near Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Serebryansky forestry.
In addition, AFU manpower and hardware have been hit close to Karmazinovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Yampolovka, Torskoye and Serebryanka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The activities of one Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group have been suppressed near Novolyubovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 195 Ukrainian servicemen, four infantry fighting vehicles, four armoured fighting vehicles, three pickup trucks, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers.
In South Donetsk direction, as a result of active actions by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces, AFU manpower and hardware have been hit close to Makarovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Levadnoye (Zaporozhye region).
In Zaporozhye direction, as a result of active actions by aviation and artillery, AFU units have been hit close to Malaya Tokmachka, Orekhov, and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region).
The actions of one Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group have been disrupted close to Mirnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
In addition, one ammunition depot of the enemy 128th Mountain Assault Brigade has been destroyed near Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region).
In Kupyansk direction, as a result of active actions by aviation, artillery, and units of the Zapad Group of Forces, AFU manpower and hardware have been hit close to Dvurechnaya, Sinkovka, Petropavlovka, Tabayevka and Peschanoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 95 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three pickup trucks, and one French-manufactured Caesar self-propelled artillery system.
In addition, one munition depot of the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade has been destroyed near Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov region).
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 45 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, and two D-30 howitzers.
In addition, one ammunition depot of an AFU unit has been destroyed close to Zmiyevka (Kherson region).
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 102 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 137 areas.
One signal node of the AFU 24th Mechanised Brigade has been hit near Dzerzhinsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, a command post of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and a fuel depot for military hardware of the enemy 33rd Mechanised Brigade have been hit close to Orekhov and Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region).
Air defence facilities have destroyed one HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectile.
In addition, 35 Ukrainian have been shot down close to Kolomyichikha, Kuzyomovka, Topolevka, Kremennaya, Kovalyovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Berezovoye, Belogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Zelenyi Gai, Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region), Novaya Kakhovka and Sagi (Kherson region).
In total, 457 airplanes, 243 helicopters, 5,236 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,868 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,139 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,585 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,860 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: rumod report | Jul 24 2023 16:58 utc | 3

15 Leopards and over 20 Bradley’s destroyed in 24 hours.
I believe the turning point to a general Russian offensive is near.
A war bogs down until it doesn’t. Massive advances through a crumbling Ukraine military is just around the corner.

Posted by: CaptainCraig | Jul 24 2023 17:02 utc | 4

Johnson has so much Ukrainian blood on his hands
Along with Blinken and Sullivan
Nudleman and Kalgan orchestrating the carnage.
Words fail.
And definitely the msmin

Posted by: jpc | Jul 24 2023 17:07 utc | 5

I’d bet ukraine still has 6 or so brigades in reserve(by trying to keep track of the names ukrinform uses when describing various actions)
The extra nato stuff just means they’re starting to use the good stuff. It’ll get worse for russia before it gets better.
Additionally they probably still have at least a couple hundred storm shadow missles left(from France and uk) and will be getting German ones and us atacms when they run out.
Still too early to celebrate russias successful defence against the counter offensive.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 24 2023 17:07 utc | 6

@3….and the slaughter continues unabated….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 24 2023 17:09 utc | 7

CaptainCraig @ 4
15 Leopards and over 20 Bradley’s destroyed in 24 hours.
I believe the turning point to a general Russian offensive is near.
A war bogs down until it doesn’t. Massive advances through a crumbling Ukraine military is just around the corner.
Response: Agree with your assessment CaptainCraig.
Looks as if the Russians are up to something in the Northern part of the zero line West of Karmazyanivka with a recent breakthrough that has grown to 7 km deep. This breakthough could take them to the Oskil River.

Posted by: young | Jul 24 2023 17:14 utc | 8

Thanks @ young
Agree on the offensive West of Karmazyanivka. I too think the border along Sumy and Kharkov is going to turn hot with limited offensive action by Russia. First probing and then exploitation.
The Ukies have been moving forces around the active front, but before they were moving Brigade sized forces, now it’s Battalion/reinforced Companies. Not a good sign.

Posted by: CaptainCraig | Jul 24 2023 17:28 utc | 9

From https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/24_07_2023_rossijskaja_armija_provala_front_pod_svatovo_kremennaja_i_voshla_v_novoegorovku_karta_boevykh_dejstvij_segodnja_14_video/60-1-0-14234 (via Firefox Translate add-on):

Assault detachments of the 21st, 15th, and 74th brigades and other units of the group of troops “Center” right now continues a successful offensive in the area of Karmazinovka and Torsky, having already taken more than 10 strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and entered the outskirts of Novoegorovka .
Kiev military propagandists and analytical resources publish maps and panicked reports about the serious advance of Russian troops in the area Karmazinovka and Kovalevka (southwest of Svatovo). They emphasize that in this sector, the Russian army has a significant advantage in firepower, which is why the AFU units are forced to retreat. The offensive of the Center group of forces forces the Ukrainian Armed Forces to introduce reserves into the battle in order to stabilize the front.

~~~

According to the night strike in Odessa and Nikolaev , you need to understand the following. Boris Rozhin:
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have long stationed and stored weapons and ammunition in ports and, most likely, were confident that these stocks were safe because of the grain deal.
2. Night detonations in Odessa allow us to conclude that everything brought to the ports, probably, for the group “South” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stored as tightly as possible. Some warehouses in the port area are on fire still.
3. The volume of destroyed ammunition and equipment is still difficult to understand, however, if the weapons and BC were critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev will urgently request more in the near future.
4. To compensate for the supply of destroyed weapons, you will have to spend a significant amount of time. Given that a significant part of the 152-and 155-mm shells, as well as other weapons, go to the area of the Ukrainian offensive literally from the wheels, the APU will have to change the scheme and method of delivery, and this is an additional time that is not available.

According to some hereabouts though, “The Kremlin is a laughing stock”. Oh dear, how sad, never mind…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 17:32 utc | 10

Another observation
If the NATO intelligence is so good and identifying Russian military targets for Ukraine why do they “waste” so much of their limited resources on “terrorist” attacks on civilian targets?

Posted by: CaptainCraig | Jul 24 2023 17:34 utc | 11

I think if the BIG counter offensive had been successful, even in part, it would have been followed by a barrage of strikes, relentless, day after day, week after week, of drones, missiles, suicide ships, against Crimea’s population and military/naval targets as a terror tactic to really shake up Russians’ faith in their military and the Putin administration. With the BIG counter offensive fail seeing they had everything in place ready to go the USA and UK have decided to go ahead with the Crimea strikes anyway. The RF hits on the Odessa coast might be as much this as ending Ukraine’s and NATO’s grain revenue.
If I’m right Crimea is in for a long rough ride, plus as Ukraine fails and pulls back the west intends to lay waste to all the Russian territory that was previously Ukrainian and this includes Crimea if only to set Russia back a couple decades, same as the west intends for China. In fact the western war plans against Russia and China may even be realistic, not to defeat them just do do so much damage to set them back 30 years while the west catches up.
I’m not saying it’s a smart plan, which is why it just might be a correct guess.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 24 2023 17:43 utc | 12

Unfortunatelly the West is going to escalate this war. They see no risc in this war.
How can Russia make this war more expensive for the colectice west?
All Russia wanted to do was to liberate Ukraine in the course of three days, remove the Zionist-Fascist Soros/Obama government and return it to the fold of the Fatherland.
And they could have done it but for Western Interference!
Curse you, Westerns Capitalists for temppting Russian oligarchs and generals to defraud the Russian military and then park their embezzled funds in number accounts ón the Cayman islands!!!

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Jul 24 2023 17:44 utc | 13

Each time Russia has a winning strategy, Ukraine (US) does some highly publicized attacks on symbolic targets, hoping this will push Russia into making a rash decision and change strategy.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2023 17:55 utc | 14

I have been trying to warn the world against this guy, apologies on behalf of my country:

“The retaliatory use of cluster munitions will once again indicate Russia’s unpreparedness for peace negotiations,” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/56342

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 24 2023 18:00 utc | 15

> in the course of three days
Reply with your bitcoin address and a quote from any Russia official who said the “3 day” thing and I’ll send you $1,000.
Hint: you won’t find it.

Posted by: CashCatz | Jul 24 2023 18:10 utc | 16

On a side note.
Given some of the Russian military leadership sucks narrative pushed by some people here.
Anyone notice the complete media journalism silence on the total disaster that the Afghan incursion was for the US?
No critical discussion of the complete military and political disaster that occurred over twenty years?
A similarly disastrous adventure is happening in the Ukraine at an accelerated pace.
No one bar the fringes like here saying so.
That’s removed from the conflict with an uninformed population I suppose

Posted by: jpc | Jul 24 2023 18:13 utc | 17

Norwegian @ 15

“The retaliatory use of cluster munitions will once again indicate Russia’s unpreparedness for peace negotiations,” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg.

Projection at its purest. Two reasons for the cluster munitions, first to thwart the Russian advance across the grey zone, other to engender extreme hatred and unresolvable tension between historically and culturally bound people.
The really tragic thing about Stoltenberg is I don’t think he’s a sophisticated nazi mafia boss, I think he really buys the shit he sells. Which is why he’s useful to the sophisticated nazi mafia bosses that hired him.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 24 2023 18:20 utc | 18

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 24 2023 17:47 utc | 73
carter is not clinton nor obama. he also got trumped by, among other outlets, the new york times.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 24 2023 17:58 utc | 77
He was supposed to clean house, and instead we got Zbig, and the Henry Jackson Society, and Raygun, among other things.
It is true he got the Trump treatment, it was not really new, savage attacks on ones opponent have always been OK here, whenever the media says so. And he is certainly less of a clown than ones who have come after.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 24 2023 18:23 utc | 19

My bet is that there is plenty of fight left in the UAF, and they still have large reserves of fresh units, men, equipment and supplies. I have no idea how much or where, though I suggest the GRU have an accurate perspective on this. UAF morale, despite horrific losses has not yet crumbled.
It will not do so I think until the RF is able to successfully attack and take key territory. That has been my view for a long time. The disasterous UAF attacks recently argue against such a policy for Russia but it will not be able to claim a victory in this war by simply competently defending.
And the longer this thing drags on, the more NATO will re-organise and re-build, and the greater the danger of escalation. And if Russia does not attack it suggests it cannot do so, and this will encourage NATO as it will sense weakness. I understand all the 5D chess arguments etc, but don’t agree with them. If you start a fight, you finish it. I do not buy the argument that time is working for Russia, quite the opposite.
This does not mean that Ukraine is winning the war, it is losing it badly. It just means that whatever Russian victory may occur, will be less than that it could have obtained if it had prosecuted the war with more force and vigour. And in a wider sense, it is giving its NATO enemies time, a very precious commodity.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 24 2023 18:24 utc | 20

Anyone notice the complete media journalism silence on the total disaster that the Afghan incursion was for the US?
Posted by: jpc | Jul 24 2023 18:13 utc | 17
RE AfPak: They would spend another twenty years in Afghanistan in a heartbeat, they would be so grateful if they only could.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 24 2023 18:29 utc | 21

The really tragic thing about Stoltenberg is I don’t think he’s a sophisticated nazi mafia boss, I think he really buys the shit he sells. Which is why he’s useful to the sophisticated nazi mafia bosses that hired him.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 24 2023 18:20 utc | 18
You are wrong. Stoltenberg, like Von der Lying and Trudeau, is a scion of an “old money” freemasonic family, dedicated to the NWO for generations. Regardless of what we think of his personal lack of brilliance, he knows very well what he is doing, for whom, and what the goal is.

Posted by: BearN | Jul 24 2023 18:32 utc | 22

I’d like to get an idea how much the war in Ucraine is costing me, directly and indirectly. Yesterday Russia announced kills of 15 Leopard and 20 Bradleys. . To get an idea what this is costing EUrope: in April, Netherlands and Denmark have given Ukraine 14 Leopards, at a cost of €165 million. That is €7 per person in the Netherlands and Denmark. Also, that values a hit on a second-hand Leopard at €12 million.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2023 18:37 utc | 23

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 24 2023 18:29 utc | 21
The current cunning plan has turned into a fiasco?

Posted by: jpc | Jul 24 2023 18:41 utc | 24

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2023 18:37 utc | 23
The awful thing is that the hardware is peanuts, although your numbers will be multiplied by 10x as the EU replenishes its stock with more modern.
The real story is the combined (EU) energy cap subsidies. So far about 750B€ to keep the cost of energy at a mere double. 1300€ or so per citizen in the EU, most of it tacked on as debt so far to disguise it from the citizenry. And no end in sight

Posted by: dask | Jul 24 2023 18:44 utc | 25

The various types of armoured vehicles and tanks were arriving via rail from Poland, but fuel transported by train is easy to blow up. So the fuel for Ukrainian army was arriving via the grain deal ships. Now the grain deal is off. The Ukrainian army is going to have a really tough time for the rest of this year.
https://www.rt.com/russia/580125-kiev-grain-deal-military-supplies/

Posted by: gT | Jul 24 2023 18:52 utc | 26

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 24 2023 18:24 utc | 20

My bet is that there is plenty of fight left in the UAF, and they still have large reserves of fresh units, men, equipment and supplies

How well-trained are these “large reserves of fresh units” going to be? And the “equipment and supplies” seem to be target-rich environments, judging by the daily ‘clobber lists’ from the Russian Defence Ministry.

Russia […] will not be able to claim a victory in this war by simply competently defending.

I don’t see Russia as wanting to “claim victory”. For a very long time Russia has been seeking a mutually-inclusive security architecture for Europe/Western Eurasia. As and when this is achieved, that will be the true victory, for us all.

And the longer this thing drags on, the more NATO will re-organise and re-build

Err… with what resources, exactly?

If you start a fight, you finish it. I do not buy the argument that time is working for Russia, quite the opposite.

If you have escalation dominance, if you have the most integrated, layered and advanced air defences then you have all the time you need or want.

And in a wider sense, it is giving its NATO enemies time

“And in a wider sense, it is giving its NATO enemies enough rope with which to hang themselves”; there, fixed it for you…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 18:54 utc | 27

I have a question about Russian strategies/plans. Drones have obviously made a huge impact on this war, but if I remember correctly, this was unanticipated beforehand (which is presumably why Russia needed to buy drones from Iran).
In the absence of drones, presumably Russia would have required either far more troops to accomplish its objectives, set aside/stockpiled far more firepower, and/or accepted far larger losses.
So my question is: Even though Russian losses are pretty horrific even by the best estimates, are they still lower than what Russia initially planned for? Also, would NATO’s strategy of supporting UKR have actually had a chance of succeeding if Russians didn’t acquire Iranian drones?

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:07 utc | 28

Mr Martynov must be delighted. Seems the nomination to be head of the US Navy is a lady with a degree in journalism. I suppose it’s better than Political Science? Maybe a bit OT but then there is some talk about that Navy entering the Black Sea.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Jul 24 2023 19:11 utc | 29

BearN @ 22

You are wrong. Stoltenberg, like Von der Lying and Trudeau, is a scion of an “old money” freemasonic family, dedicated to the NWO for generations. Regardless of what we think of his personal lack of brilliance, he knows very well what he is doing, for whom, and what the goal is.

I stand corrected, though I know better something about Scandinavia always makes me not think old money, not sure why maybe a certain tempered Calvanist propriety. Old money and inbreeding does in fact produce the stupidest possible offspring, regular folk have been bitching about it since the dawn of civilization, sadly they rarely do more than bitch about their Untermenschen Overlords.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 24 2023 19:13 utc | 30

Even though Russian losses are pretty horrific even by the best estimates, are they still lower than what Russia initially planned for?

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:07 utc | 28
Mmm… that’s a dead give-away that your question isn’t serious…
Must try harder…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 19:14 utc | 31

The Maerican Navy in the Black sea loses all its ships. It’s a Russian lake. What’s happening is the children have taken control and are trying to figure out what they can try to get away with that has even a snowballs chance in hell of working, before the Western particularly European public realizes the massive fraud and just how fucked they are now.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 24 2023 19:18 utc | 32

#19 Bemildred
And Zbig’s som is now ambassador to Poland.
It’s no wonder Poland itching to attack with that nutter running the show.

Posted by: Orchard1 | Jul 24 2023 19:22 utc | 33

“Still too early to celebrate russias successful defence against the counter offensive.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 24 2023 17:07 utc | 6
I don’t see anyone doing that, but thanks for the wet rag. Maybe you should change your nic to “NeoFUDalfuture”.

Posted by: LordBydon | Jul 24 2023 19:30 utc | 34

The Maerican Navy in the Black sea loses all its ships

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 24 2023 19:18 utc | 32
Heh, they’ve got to get there in the first place. The phosphorus in the Bosporus won’t be prosperous…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 19:33 utc | 35

One would assume the Russians are now clear on the possibilities of US/ NATO going away being very low. The Russians face a difficult choice; continue to approach this extreme danger as an SMO, with limited resources and continued reticence to hit back in some meaningful way (either covertly or openly) outside the Ukraine theater of operations. such a move will mean direct confrontation with a significantly larger and potentially more destructive NATO army. Or, Russia could openly declare a state of war and name the adversary (not Ukraine, but US and NATO) then mobilize the nation and field well more than a million troops to the front.
To me it seems at this point NATO are bent on Russia’s destruction, leaving little choice but to escalate and fully mobilize. Perhaps then, countries they are targeted will experience real fear of continuing along this path.

Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 24 2023 19:39 utc | 36

Mmm… that’s a dead give-away that your question isn’t serious…
Must try harder…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 19:14 utc | 31
???
1. Losses are in the tens of thousands over ~18 months–that is pretty horrific by most standards, and especially by standards of western countries fighting post-WWII wars.
2. If my question “isn’t serious” do you actually have any insight? Or do you just troll the boards and look for ways to discredit anybody who doesn’t pretend that Russians are immortal?

Posted by: Comacho In Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:58 utc | 37

To me it seems at this point NATO are bent on Russia’s destruction, leaving little choice but to escalate and fully mobilize. Perhaps then, countries they are targeted will experience real fear of continuing along this path.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 24 2023 19:39 utc | 35
I don’t understand why everybody seems so impatient about escalation. The Russians are getting what they want; why would they change strategies until the current one proves ineffective? Similarly, the US/UK clearly have no path to victory; why would they escalate so long as they have some room to compromise and back down?
As an aside, though, declaring war would allow Russia to completely cut off natural gas shipments to Europe. That would lead to some interesting debate in the west, I think.

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 24 2023 20:04 utc | 38

Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh@35…..no fighting outside the ring. It’s a gentleman’s agreement, Queensbury Rules. The Theatre, and it’s areas of conflict have been predetermined by both sides …..no white towels allowed, a cage match, winner takes all. Luckily it’s confined to the Ukraine past and present…..for now.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 24 2023 20:05 utc | 39

Two negative assessments I agree with
1) AFU is still strong.
2) NATO wants to go scorched Earth.
However, i think the plan is to attrit Ukraine until Russia can replay March 22, and this time hold it. An offense so fast NATO doesnt have time to burn everything in its retreat.
If that’s the plan, it would illuminate after victory why Putin is not blowing up everything he hopes to take.
This would also mean the initial offensive was a demonstration and rehearsal, with hopes of victory. Either way, it can not be forgotten the speed with which they reached the outskirts of Kiev. And Ukraine was fortified then too. Both sides were fairly inexperienced.
Now both have more experience, but one, seems to be losing it through loss of men. So it always is possible Russia suddenly breaks through, and just rolls through Ukraine.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:07 utc | 40

Posted by: Comacho In Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:58 utc | 36
What you did was to make this claim:

Russian losses are pretty horrific even by the best estimates

What you didn’t do was provide any evidenced baseline of whose estimates you were referencing.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:09 utc | 41

Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh @ 35

To me it seems at this point NATO are bent on Russia’s destruction, leaving little choice but to escalate and fully mobilize. Perhaps then, countries they are targeted will experience real fear of continuing along this path.

Every 20 minutes this thought passes through my head, if so then Russia will need allies for WW3, big powerful ones and without China aboard it won’t stand a chance. If Russia has concluded WW3 is unavoidable then they’ve already discussed it with China and who knows what they concluded and replied. WW3 is a big deal, cut the Russians some slack.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 24 2023 20:10 utc | 42

What you did was to make this claim:
Russian losses are pretty horrific even by the best estimates
What you didn’t do was provide any evidenced baseline of whose estimates you were referencing.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:09 utc | 40
Wagners losses alone were pretty horrific, and those were admitted. Russia has a bloody nose. I am sure they expected it, though hoping they dont get hit. I remember a family member who got in lots of street fights tell me once, “If you get in a fight, you are going to get hit”.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:13 utc | 43

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 18:54 utc | 27
Hey – I was clearly posting an opinion – and one based on a lifetime’s study of military and geo-political history, but obviously not a set of data or facts. You posted some opinions too. I respect your opinion and understand that in the future your views may prove closer to whatever truth emerges. In the mean time I would appreciate it if you could extend the same courtesy to me and indeed anyone else who may hold a different view to your good self.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 24 2023 20:17 utc | 44

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 24 2023 18:24 utc | 20
Possibly, but if Russia is given, or works toward gaining, an opportunity for corps level manoeuvre, then Ukraine’s weakness at such operations could expose not only their entire frontline but all those prematurely predicting the death of big arrow warfare. Russia has resurrected the division, as the armies core structure, for a reason and I doubt it’s simply because it allows a more unified and coherent defensive scheme to be designed and implemented. I think we are close to the ‘all at once stage’ and if/when the collapse is triggered some will be surprised at how quickly it occurs.
NATO are aware about this inability of their proxy to operate at any level higher than brigade, (another reason the infantry centric approach was adopted) and although some lip service was paid to creating two corps capable formations, they will be up against Russian commanders whose bread and butter is divisional level manoeuvre and above. The deployment of cluster munitions and supply strikes are more to delay the Russian offensive phase of the war than support any Ukrainian offensive intentions, which have struggled to capitalise on any successes, due to the aforementioned command limitations; however, it’s the developing situation in the North that highlights, counter-intuitively the real UA problem, defending without extensive field defences and overwhelming NATO ISR. UA units have shown time after time that they operate with the least proficiency and efficiency when having to fight battles of manoeuvre, instead of set piece assaults, or from fixed fortifications. A classic Russian echeloned attack that moves quickly, using EW to paralyse C3, maximising it’s air and artillery dominance, and only reinforces success against a relatively weak sector, could considerably accelerate the timetable for Ukraines collapse.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 20:21 utc | 45

FWIW, I concur with those who feel Oberkommando die Welt Nuland won’t be done with this effort to share out ownership of Russian people and their wealth among New York and London financial speculators until it is done with her and them.
https://therevdavidrgraham.substack.com/p/oberkommando-die-welt

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 24 2023 20:22 utc | 46

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:13 utc | 42
and @Comacho in Chief
It’s the use of the emotive term “horrific” that gets my troll-antennae twitching. Horrific compared to what? Horrific compared to Ukrainian losses? Horrific compared to Vietnamese losses? Horrific compared to financial losses in 2008? Compared to Covid deaths? Compared to vaccine-related deaths? Compared to Fukushima-related deaths?
The word “horrific” makes no sense. Does @Comacho in Chief have some kind of restricted access to casualty estimates or predictions provided to the Russian MoD before the SMO started?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:24 utc | 47

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Jul 24 2023 19:11 utc | 29
Just means the power of that role’s shifted fully behind the scenes, same deal in the political sphere with all these strange dullards. Doesn’t matter how dumb they all get, these things are happening in parallel universe of western psychobabble.
In the real world, Barry Posen’s Ukraine war script was written in 1994 and still describes what’s going on pretty well, infrastructure terrorism’s still imposing RAND’s costs.
The “Surovikin Line” is very well thought out and implemented but is playing the role assigned to it by western strategists (neocons) since at least 1994 the right thing to do?

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 24 2023 20:26 utc | 48

Please note that NATO doesn’t have an army
Sounds like ‘just wait until your father gets home ‘

Posted by: Stephen | Jul 24 2023 20:30 utc | 49

Oh well, yeah, whatever. I’m just a retired bus driver with little or no intelligence compared to the mighty intellects displayed here. I’m out, maybe I’ll see some familiar names in the other places I lurk.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:31 utc | 50

NATO-Ukraine Action Plan
Section 2 – Economic issues
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_21735.htm?selectedLocale=en
A lot of people know the EU treaties, the IMF and world bank economic policies are nothing short of neo colonialism. What isn’t reported often enough is the NATO charters themselves and what ” structural reforms ” actually means when you apply to be a NATO member.
Why you end up with many fools being against the EU but fully supportive of NATO. Or fools fully supportive of the EU but against NATO.
These fools speak out of both sides of their mouths saying different things. Without understanding NATO, EU, IMF and World bank are all the exact same rent seeking asset stripping animal. Now brainwashed by the social media sites they visit because they massaged their confirmation biases to JUST blame the WEF and Davos. Which are also both part of the very same foreign policy initiatives.
There’s no difference between any of them. Those knee deep in right and left BS divide themselves.
My own personal view is more attention should be brought to bare on the NATO charters. Shine a spotlight on their economic policies and what they instruct countries to do to become a member of NATO..
So that voters who are stupid enough to believe it is only a defensive military alliance. Know more about what is going to happen to them when they join this neo conservative, neo liberal, shit show.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 24 2023 20:42 utc | 51

It’s the use of the emotive term “horrific” that gets my troll-antennae twitching. Horrific compared to what?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:24 utc | 46
Horrific does not have to be a comparitive term. It is what it means. It means horror inducing.
Those men were heroes, and they died before their time, in horrific ways, every single one of them. If you “just get shot”, and dies bevause of it, it will be the last, and most horrific thing that ever happened to you.
The casualties are high. And, I think they are higher than most MoA comprehend, bevause we tend to ignore them.
Every now and then I watch Ukrainian videos. Just like the Russian ones, they are oft set to wierd technoslavica or black slavic metal, and you see Russian soldiers getting blown to bits, or their bodies laying, bloating in a field next to burnt out vehicles.
That there are at least 50,000 in eight months is horrific to me. This war is not pretty. It is a serious war.
But, if you want me to give a hazy estimate, of what I consider non-horrific casualties, i would say American losses in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yugoslavia etc were not horrific. Both because they were tools, and because they did not lose many soldiers over the period of their occupation.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:43 utc | 52

So my question is: Even though Russian losses are pretty horrific even by the best estimates, are they still lower than what Russia initially planned for? Also, would NATO’s strategy of supporting UKR have actually had a chance of succeeding if Russians didn’t acquire Iranian drones?

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:07 utc | 28
You are using the same rhetorical tool twice. A loaded question is using a question to make a statement, like in “Have you stopped beating your wife?”.
In your post, you are using the loaded question twice: once to state Russian losses are horrific, and once to state Russia uses Iranian drones. Your use of rhetoric is ambitious for a beginner; I suggest varying your tricks for better results.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2023 20:45 utc | 53

NATO charter “Structural reforms ” – is code for smash the worker resistance and make capital even richer.
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=31018

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 24 2023 20:48 utc | 54

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:13 utc | 42
USMC studies for likely casualties suffered in FIBUA exercises, against non-peer opponents, with Blue-Force full-spectrum dominance, were far higher than those of Wagner’s. As I’ve reiterated countless times, whereas casualties are individual tragedies they are relatively insignificant if they can be absorbed by their organisation so that it does not impair its combat effectiveness.
Most NATO armies would have lasted a couple of months in the SMO due to their inability to absorb percentage casualty rates half that of the Russians. The US military would last longer, but denied its ISR and air dominance and having its fragile logistics capabilities tested to breaking point would have exposed the damage caused by a progression of progressive administrations. When all the dust has settled, the SMO will be quietly studied as a good example of how clever planning and execution, alongside rapid combat adaptation, can go a long way to obviating the known weaknesses and shortfalls of a military organisation. It will also reinforce, if it needs to be, that political, economic, social, diplomatic and military disciplines are all fingers in the same gauntlet, and to get the best results they have to be balled into a fist.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 20:50 utc | 55

Can anyone check that Larry Johnson’s comment on Judge NAP today that the Wiki entry on the Odessa cathedral was changed ‘before’ the actual bombing?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 24 2023 20:51 utc | 56

Russia uses Iranian drones. Your use of rhetoric is ambitious for a beginner; I suggest varying your tricks for better results.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2023 20:45 utc | 52
Russia does use Iranian drones, and has been publicly announcing both purchases and deliveries of said drones.
To answer the original question, though. Russia was already exploring drone warfare in many fields, even drone minitanks.
They would have just used more of their drone stock without Iranian purchases. Those are because Russia trades with Iran, and they need something in return for what they ship to Iran.
Casualties would not have been avoided, unless Russians could peer into the future to get the understanding of how to use and deploy drones successfully in an unknown technologically advanced battlefield setting.
Its like asking of WWII American losses could have been avoided if America started with nuclear weapons. Its a hypothetical that ignores the realities of deploying new weaponry. Its like asking, “what if I knew how to cook before I learned to cook? Would I be a better cook now?”

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:56 utc | 57

without telling the people, likely to be called upon to fight in full scale war, entry into war silently, but auto-majic-ally happens? Eric-Zuessee explains
https://www.southfront.org/eric-zuesse-how-u-s-congress-just-voted-to-make-war-permanent/
The same type of mechanism that created unwilling allies in past wars? According to the article when the top war dog, declares full scale war then, auto-majic-ally everybody else does..

Posted by: snake | Jul 24 2023 21:01 utc | 58

Comacho in Chief | Jul 24 2023 19:07 utc | 28 “horrific losses…”
By what standard? Since WWII the west is used to expeditionary force enforcing empires dictates against countries that are basically defenseless against US air, naval and economic power and always it is a coalition of the killing.
Vietnam… although US casualties were exceptionally minor compared the Vietnamese casualties, conscript boots in bodybags made a big impression on the western public that included massive protests. Empire had to grow more cunning in its wars of conquest. Without boots in body bags the public doesnt give a shit.
The Vietnamese won. The difference, the Vietnamese were fighting in their own country against an invader.
Ukraine – Russia. US pysops have been very good since Vietnam, both against the populations within its empire and to an extent some targeted nations, but the really standout part of American psyops is how they can brain wash intended proxies into malleable cannon fodder, zombie armies that without fail get killed off.
Russia – where are they fighting and who are the people in the area the fighting is occurring. The people there are Russians. Through the referendums, the land has also returned to Russia That is land that has been inhabited by Russian for the last two or three hundred and has never been inhabited by by the Kievan Rus that had come under the control of Poland.
Russia is fighting in a land of its own people and that land is part of the Russian Federation. Very unlike the faraway wars of the west amongst very different peoples who also fight because the west is the invader.
If Russia were to lose it would be broken up into statelets by the Americans and British. What the Americans term ‘decolonization’. If the US loses it will lose what is left of its crumbling empire. Russia won’t lose because the US can only win by creating turmoil, political, economic and social collapse within the Russian federation. US attempts at this have not only failed but backfired spectacularly. Russia’s economy is booming and the the peoples of the Russian federation are now more tightly knit as a nation due to this full spectrum attack on them by the combined west. The presidents approval rating jumped from 60% to 80% with the announcement of the SMO.
But there is also a completely different understanding of war between the current west and the Russian federation. To the western mind, certainly since 1990, wars have become like big game safari. Some danger and excitement but relative low chance of death or maiming. Shoot a few goat herders armed with little other than casualty rifles while still withing range of western fire bases and close air support. Russia does not have that latter day western public concept of war.
Russia as the successor state to the soviet union certainly understands horrific losses. Turning the tide against the German war machine that had rolled over all of Europe with ease but ended with the Soviet flag flying high above the Reichstag.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2023 21:10 utc | 59

Final missive: the petit-bourgeois condescension that predominates this forum militates against any real progress. The proletariat emancipation sought by @bevin and @karlof1 (and sought by me, for what it’s worth) is severely handicapped by such condescension.
To the tune of The Red Flag
The working class
Can kiss my arse
I’ve got the foreman’s job
At last
which to me, sums up the mindset of my elders and betters here. You know, some of us proles are trying to make sense of things without swallowing the MSM garbage, but perhaps I need to apologise for my earthy intrusion into all of your Elysium fantasies.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 21:14 utc | 60

You’re never gonna get an accurate assessment of Russian causalities unless you run some ridiculous statistical analysis post-war. Even if we were to apply a lower or upper bound to MoD announcements, the situation does not look good, even with some generic inexperienced reserve of Ukranian forces. All lives lost in a war are terrible, fathers, mothers, sons and daughters. Don’t need 2 brain cells to say all loss of life in a war is horrific. To claim any one side’s horrific needs substantiation.

Posted by: ThrowAwayAnotherDay | Jul 24 2023 21:25 utc | 61

I almost engaged with a straw-man argument posting shill for the MIC. Instead, I’ll be ignoring them.
Anywho, I’m reminded of the Sherlock Holmes story, Silver Blaze, and the oft quoted repartee between Holmes and the Scotland Yard detective, Gregory.

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time.
Holmes: That was the curious incident.

The most famous of MIC shills in Washington D.C. have been far more subdued regarding standing beside Zelenskyy, and wanting to defeat Russia. In fact, Zelenskyy barely gets mentioned these days when there is still talk of aiding Ukraine. The shills prefer to keep their references to aid to Ukraine more in the abstract, rather than the more concrete going to Ukraine for a face to face handshake with Zelenskyy, followed by bragging about the awesome weapons they’d be getting for him.
Nowhere near as much barking in support of Zelenskyy, from the dogs of war in the West. Lindsey Graham seems to show signs of drinking more heavily than ever, and while maybe he still brags to his bartender how he’s going to see to it that lots of Russians will get killed, the indications coming from Washington suggest he’s in the process of pivoting to championing other causes.
https://news.yahoo.com/sc-lindsey-graham-likely-face-152558782.html

South Carolina’s senior U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham reportedly may face a Republican challenger when he’s next up for reelection, and at a time some Republicans believe Graham’s position in the party is vulnerable.
South Carolina Congressman Ralph Norman, a Rock Hill Republican, could likely challenge Graham in the 2026 Republican primary, when Graham is up for reelection, according to Politico.
“Rep. Norman is not ruling anything out but has made no decisions yet on future elections,” Austin Livingston, communications director for Norman, said in an email to The State. “He remains firmly committed to serving South Carolina’s 5th district in the House, and doing everything within his ability to restore fiscal sanity and conservative values to Congress.”
Earlier this month, Graham was booed for several minutes by his own constituents at a Donald Trump rally in Pickens, leading some conservatives, who’ve long distrusted Graham, to suspect that Graham is loosing steam within the party and may now may even be vulnerable enough to be defeated in his next Senate bid, Politico reports.

If Trump becomes the Republican nominee again, and wins the general election, then Graham will have had to have already distanced himself from calling those opposed to the proxy war with Russia as Putin lovers. Trump would be in a position to destroy him over that issue, and humiliate him in his Republican primary.
Unless of course Ukraine somehow sends the Russians packing back to the old borders. But that ain’t happening, and every day the AFU looks more and more like a long shot bet to those assigning odds to their chances against the clear dominance of Russia’s combined military forces, and Russia’s industrial might.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 24 2023 21:31 utc | 62

A lot of folks, here and in the media, don’t factor the massive political gains Russia and BRICS have made by slow rolling this war…As to the casualties, the Russian army has primarily used standoff weapons, artillery, drones, mines, missiles and air power, so its casualties have been quite low…Whereas Wagner, fighting building to building, suffered quite a lot of casualties, though the poorly trained and led Ukrainians suffered many more…

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 24 2023 21:31 utc | 63

I want to thank some of my fellow barflies for the daily RU MoD ‘Clobber’ reports.
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 24 2023 16:58 utc | 3
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 17:32 utc | 10
There are a few more. Them little details help with corroboration,
Thank you.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2023 21:32 utc | 64

… political, economic, social, diplomatic and military disciplines are all fingers in the same gauntlet, and to get the best results they have to be balled into a fist.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 20:50 utc | 54

Perhaps I’m just failing to recognize a cliche, but I’ll nominate that for today’s “eloquently aggressive turn of phrase” award.

Posted by: Mike314159 | Jul 24 2023 21:38 utc | 65

Acc. to the current BRICS meeting in S-Africa (ref.by RT news) :
Mr. Macron – President of France – (and also some “others” adjacent of his friend’s bids)
has not been declared as a “welcomed” person to take part on the S-Africa BRICS-meeting nowadays …
That’s a statement of BRICS – or isn’t?

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 24 2023 21:49 utc | 66

Posted by: Mike314159 | Jul 24 2023 21:38 utc | 63
Yeah, that would fit right in on a page of Frank Herbert quotes, but I’m pretty sure it’s not one of his. It’s got my vote!

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 24 2023 21:49 utc | 67

Horrific does not have to be a comparitive term. It is what it means. It means horror inducing.

“The death of one is horrific. The death of a hundred thousand, just a statistic”
— Ioseph Djhugashvilli

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 24 2023 21:54 utc | 68

I have been trying to warn the world against this guy, apologies on behalf of my country:
“The retaliatory use of cluster munitions will once again indicate Russia’s unpreparedness for peace negotiations,” NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/56342
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 24 2023 18:00 utc | 15

Stoltenberg needs another chip implant. The old chip makes him look entirely too robotic, like a deranged psychopath. Maybe a new chip can make him come off as sort of a human being.

To me it seems at this point NATO are bent on Russia’s destruction, leaving little choice but to escalate and fully mobilize. Perhaps then, countries they are targeted will experience real fear of continuing along this path.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 24 2023 19:39 utc | 35

NATO (US) has long been working on Russia’s destruction. They just don’t want a direct confrontation, choosing the route of death by a thousand cuts, with Ukraine doing most of the cutting. Razor blades provided by the West. Russia is retaliating with their own version of death by a thousand cuts.

I think we are close to the ‘all at once stage’ and if/when the collapse is triggered some will be surprised at how quickly it occurs.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 20:21 utc | 44

It looks to me like Ukraine is at the stage where it is shuffling brigades to put out fires. Resources are being drawn away from Bakhmut flanks to the north where Russia is breaking through. The AFU no longer has enough resources left to defend the entire line of contact (and yet it continues making suicide attacks in the south). The lines are starting to bend, and soon, somewhere, a line is going to break. Once that happens, all bets are off.

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2023 21:56 utc | 69

Dear West of England Andy,
Don’t let the bastards get to you.
The aim of trolls are to derail discussion that counters the Narrative or to discourage engagement with sites that allow for such interaction.
I hope to be able to enjoy your continued presence and comments here.

Posted by: Suresh | Jul 24 2023 21:58 utc | 70

Will NATO expand, etc.?
Unfortunatelly the West is going to escalate this war.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Jul 24 2023 17:44 utc | 13
———————————————————–
And the longer this thing drags on, the more NATO will re-organise and re-build, and the greater the danger of escalation.
Posted by: marcjf | Jul 24 2023 18:24 utc | 20
—————————————————-
“And in a wider sense, it is giving its NATO enemies enough rope with which to hang themselves”; there, fixed it for you…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 18:54 utc | 27
—————————————————————
Two negative assessments I agree with
1) AFU is still strong.
2) NATO wants to go scorched Earth.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:07 utc | 39
——————————————————-
Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 20:21 utc | 44
Clear there cannot be a Ukie, victory. For me gorgeous detail. I thrive on that.
——————————————————————————–
The US has made it clear that there will ‘officially’ no US boots on the ground. The Rest of the NATO crowd, the chichuas included feel the same way, except for Poland. Vilius indicated the the Ukies are on their own.
The givens are no NATO expansion because empty words, money and war gear. The other given is no nuclear war, neither of the big two really want that. Simplicius, elsewhere, argues that with malfeasance there is a risk of making mistakes that result in nuclear war. There are a lot of safeguards in place, politically, but never say never.
The end game is completely in Russian hands. NATO has become a nuisance, in need of being taught a lesson. Nail biting for some of us.
Odessa is the long pole in the tent and IMHO will drive the time table. The US election is also a timetable driver but my crystal ball is cloudy.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2023 22:11 utc | 71

As mentioned above, Odessa turns out to be a key factor. Whether Ukraine was receiving significant arms shipments into the port is besides the point (but likely true and across the danube is another potential). If nothing else, Kiev felt comfortable stockpiling all sorts of material there because it was essentially protected by the grain deal. Russia certainly didn’t waste any time hitting those installations. And several public Russians have stated that the Odessa strikes were not retaliation for the Kerch bridge but long planned.
That suggests Russia knew the Odessa area was full of critical stuff but wasn’t striking it, probably because Putin wouldn’t allow it. So the failure of the grain deal and the bridge attack changed his mind and it was game on against Odessa were people likely got complacent because they were never hit.
The question now is how critical are the losses in Odessa? And that combines with @milites above hypothesizing about a large offensive in the north. It’s likely that the time for that is soon or not until 2023. You can make an argument either way and include that the Ukrainian army won’t last nine more months (certainly possible, maybe probable) so waiting is good. On the other hand, war is unpredictable and letting it drag on is rife with negative potential.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 24 2023 22:16 utc | 72

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2023 21:56 utc | 67

.. The AFU no longer has enough resources left to defend the entire line of contact (and yet it continues making suicide attacks in the south). The lines are starting to bend, and soon, somewhere, a line is going to break. Once that happens, all bets are off. …

You may not hope too early in favour of RF in regard of all current gray-zone front lines across the “new” RF-State boeders.
UAF is still very strong by its man power, even operating in some suicide-like attempts.
RF’s man power is also on a weak point. This “war” is going to be decided by the best modified devices (Simple drones to watch & bomb) and by the UK-StormShadows and the RF-Lancets.
RF-Ammo depots have also being destroyed by UAF/US guided attacks against Russia since last days
Let’s see within next 6 months where the “best” equipment can be supported by either side.
And if – not least – also the big-fat US peoples would have to suffer from the one or the others hard missile strikes on its own ground in Texas, Calif or W-DC .. or where else ..?
Wait …

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 24 2023 22:19 utc | 73

29 Leopards Visually Confirmed Losses So Far. Could be more that there were no visuals for.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbCNauzggWY

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 24 2023 22:21 utc | 74

Posted by: Mike314159 | Jul 24 2023 21:38 utc | 63
Thank you, I’ll return the compliment, ‘eloquently aggressive’ is a very apposite description of my philosophical approach to life. Tank-like, would be my wife’s, but at least I like to think the commander is well-spoken!

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 22:24 utc | 75

Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2023 22:11 utc | 69
Next US election is I think a big factor in the not to distant future. Just as Russia has become more united internally since 2014, US has started showing massive domestic cracks. A split in society I guess between the woke that back the deep state candidates and the flyover types that will back a non deep state actor. The current political/lawfare persecution of Trump to try and prevent him running for or gaining the presidency again is now exceptionally blatent.
It is becoming obvious that the deep state is discarding the figleaf of democracy and the next election I think the world not just Americans will see some very blatant in your face election interference by the US deep state. It will be interesting to see how the disenfranchised American voters react to it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2023 22:26 utc | 76

re: Grain deal
OXFAM criticized it. And I assume thats the reason the MSM did not report that.
The Italian section of Oxfam:
“IL GRANDE INGANNO SUL GRANO UCRAINO”
https://www.oxfamitalia.org/il-grande-inganno-sul-grano-ucraino/
the central quote:
“The agreement that allowed for the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine certainly helped curb soaring food prices – which still rose 14 percent globally in 2022 – but it was not the solution to global hunger, which now affects at least 122 million more people than in 2019,” said Francesco Petrelli, policy advisor on food security at Oxfam Italy. “Hundreds of millions of people were hungry before Russia invaded Ukraine, and hundreds of millions continue to go hungry today: 783 million in total last year, according to the latest FAO data. Countries like South Sudan and Somalia, to which just 0.2 percent of Ukraine’s grain has gone since the agreement came into effect, are one step away from famine. This is simply shameful and describes a world in which inequality of access to food continues to grow more and more instead of decreasing.”

Posted by: AG | Jul 24 2023 22:46 utc | 77

Posted by: Lex | Jul 24 2023 22:16 utc | 70
Odessa will come to RU after Donbass. Why? Because the whole army of AFU has been stripped from everywhere into Zaporozhye and Donbass and they have serious problems sustaining the army in its current form due to squandering it and also trouble with new recruits. 80 % of recruits are now forcibly hunted down to be mobilized.
There will be nothing left to defend Odessa with after the army is used up in Zaporozhye and Donbass. Of course, they might leave some hardcore Kraken’s and Azov behind which could lead to renewed Mariupol situation. But it’s also possible that Odessa will fall into RU lap without needing to fight at all. This is on the condition that Nato does not send an army. Odessa is basically in the middle of nowhere for AFU to be defending it in case of breakthrough west of Dnepr.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2023 22:51 utc | 78

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 24 2023 22:54 utc | 79

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2023 21:56 utc | 67
Yup, fire brigades, what an Eastern Front concept and what a wonderful way to wear out your most effective troops and expose them to fire-strikes.
Russian tactics were described to me like lapping water, sooner or later it would find a gap and trickle through, eventually collapsing any obstacles that had blocked its initial progress, sweeping them away. Speed of action, speed of movement, speed of decision were watchwords drilled into Post-War Russian commanders, something NATO bizarrely interpreted as evidence of the exact opposite. The obvious weakness of the approach was that it depended on the competency of the senior staff, but the SMO has done a good job at winnowing out the ‘parquet generals’ and quietly replacing them with combat proven individuals. I’d bet a significant amount of my imaginary wealth that some of the most proven senior officers and their staff are on the the Northern front.
Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 24 2023 22:19 utc | 71
Possibly, if this were a game of Battletech, as a German general lamented, as he observed a NATO exercise, ‘the American don’t have tactics they have technology’. The winner of this conflict will be the one who, years before it started, made the most effective preparations for it. Technology is a force modifier, but you must have a decent combat coefficient for it to really make an impact. The UA army has increasingly poor senior leadership, with little to no experience of corps operations and relies excessively on Western ISR support and the input of advisors. The Russian Army has numerous defects and deficiencies but it is reliant on no one but itself, meaning it has spent the last year and a half constantly adapting at all levels and now, by default, is the premier fighting force in the world.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 22:55 utc | 80

@ West of England Andy
What Suresh said. I find your comments to be consistently worthwhile and I’m sure a lot of us would regret your departure.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 24 2023 23:02 utc | 81

That there are at least 50,000 in eight months is horrific to me. This war is not pretty. It is a serious war.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 20:43 utc | 51
So where do you get the figure “50,000” from? Or are you trying to “plant” a figure in people’s minds?
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 24 2023 22:54 utc | 77
50,000 is a pretty conservative estimate, considering Wagner alone lost something like 27,000.
What do you think it is?

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 23:02 utc | 82

I meant 50,000 Russian dead in *eighteen* months. I consider that conservative. I dont buy the 10 – 1 kill ratios.
There are too many destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles, they dont match the 10 – 1 kill ratio.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 23:11 utc | 83

Unfortunatelly the West is going to escalate this war. They see no risc in this war.
How can Russia make this war more expensive for the colectice west?

Escalate in Syria. Russia and Iran are doing just that. US is now deploying more forces to counter Iran. North Korea as well. The big boned dictator is actively firing ballistic missiles into the void. More documents to Korea I suppose.
China could try something in Taiwan or South China.
The goal is not actual war but to stretch the US military thin and prompt the US government to print and waste money.
In the mean time, while most US politicians are occupied with these little military projects, China can continue to push de-dollarization across the globe that eventually triggers a financial collapse.
Jinping is pushing Putin’s reelection in 2024 for a reason. They’re in it for the long game.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jul 24 2023 23:19 utc | 84

Western Andy: second all the positive comments upthread.
Nil carborundum bastardii.

Posted by: Waymad | Jul 24 2023 23:27 utc | 85

There are too many destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles, they dont match the 10 – 1 kill ratio.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 23:11 utc | 81

[ Album ]
Serious losses in the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The LOSTARMOUR website, which specializes in calculating losses in armored vehicles using videos and photos in public sources, published a report on losses in the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Namely, the loss of 155-mm American howitzers M777. It should be taken into account that not all losses fall into the camera lenses and the LOSTARMOR method gives a minimum estimate of Ukrainian losses.
Briefly about the report:
◼️In June, there were 18 registered strikes on M777 howitzers, and the total number of such strikes exceeded 100. According to various sources, the United States sent 180-210 M777 units to Ukraine. This means that at least half of them have already been destroyed or damaged. At the same time, only 1000 such howitzers were in service in the United States.
◼️The report also analyzed the frequency of use of the Russian Lancet kamikaze UAV. In the first days of July alone, 26 videos of the Lancet were posted, which is the highest number for such a period of time. For comparison: 61 videos were published for the whole of May. It can be seen that the use of Lancets is expanding.
#source (https://t.me/ukraina_ru/158911?single)
“>https://t.me/Slavyangrad/53578

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2023 23:28 utc | 86

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2023 22:55 utc | 78

1: .. The UA army has increasingly poor senior leadership, with little to no experience of corps operations and relies excessively on Western ISR support and the input of advisors.
2: The Russian Army has numerous defects and deficiencies but it is reliant on no one but itself, meaning it has spent the last year and a half constantly adapting at all levels and now, by default, is the premier fighting force in the world.

ref. 1: That’s true, but UAF’s “senior leadership” has already be exchanged by a sufficient number of a competent original US-staff on that ISR needs. So RF might now be in a hurry-up to compensate and enhance its quantity of technics vs. of that “US watching power” asap. ..
ref. 2: “by default” I’d like to doubt that RU has a “premier fighting force”, may be together with China then.

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 24 2023 23:31 utc | 87

“Ukraine is already cannibalizing some Bradleys to keep other Bradleys operational. By now, the number of vehicles destroyed or put out of action by maintenance has attrited the offensive potential of the force earmarked for the southern offensive. They had one chance and blew it.”
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1683603664622039041

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2023 23:45 utc | 88

And you know how many destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles? Oryx?
It’s easy to create an illusion of something with a few youtube videos. There are channels set up by MI6 for the precise purpose.
Yeah, there could be 800 Russian tanks and that would make for a lot of videos to create a perception. But it’s not anywhere near the 2500 they claim (by filming a tank from three directions plus throw some AFU tanks into the mix).
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2023 23:28 utc | 84
I dont know. But 800 to 2500, as you said, makes it 3 to 1. That would mean something like 100,000 dead Russians.
I mean, I read the clobber list every day, and even if 10 to 1, Russia is taking some losses to. Everytime they say “up to 150 AFU were destroyed”, that means “up to” 15 Russians were, and one of my fears is the MoD is actually just reporting their own losses as AFU x 5 or 10. As I have said before, the Vietnam body count multiplier effect might be being used by Russia.
I know many think only Ukraine lies about their losses, because Russia is the good guy, and good guys don’t lie. But I don’t see warfare that way, because all warfare is based on deception. So I would expect any competant military leader to lie about losses to the public, and their own men even, whilst saving the true numbers only for those in the command structure who actually need to know.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 23:47 utc | 89

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2023 23:47 utc | 87
IIRC AFU started the war with about 2500 tanks. Now we don’t know how they are divided, but most of them were not even T-72 but the modernized T-64 was largest group followed by the older model T-54. And we could probably assume at least half were mothballed / storaged.
We also know Czech and Poland, the two main suppliers of Ukraine created tank refurbishing sites in their countries. It’s possible they could have restored hundreds of tanks over the 18 months. Additionally, Poland and Czech had own already functioning tanks which they gave to Ukraine. It was estimated AFU got at least 800 more such tanks.
After that, they got 100-200 Leopards and the 20 or whatever Challenger tanks, and the rabble of various other tanks (french AMX-10).
So totally they could potentially have 3500 tanks. And Zaluzhny was wining for 400 more tanks already last December for the counter-offensive we’ve seen over the past 12 weeks. Logically speaking, he was demanding them because they ran out of other tanks. In percentage terms, 200 Leopards on top of what they had is not very much.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 25 2023 0:02 utc | 90

West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 17:32 utc | 10
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have long stationed and stored weapons and ammunition in ports and, most likely, were confident that these stocks were safe because of the grain deal.
Of course “they” couldn’t help themselves and had to pervert the grain deal into a weapons rat-run.
Slowly, at first, of course… and then, seeing how “stupid” and lazy the Russians were, more and more weapons got sent that route.
They probably had all the munitions they thought they would use to take Crimea stored there.
But they couldn’t help themselves. They couldn’t allow Putin even on tiny “win” on the Great Grain Deal… they thought they could have both.
The weapons rat-run.. And stiff Putin on transporting Russian grain and fertilisers.
Now, they’ve lost the ratrun, lost the stockpiles of weapons, lost USNATO cockroaches who were in Odessa overseeing the ratrun, weapons and the plans for the great Crimean D-Day.
And now they’ve lost the functionality of the Odessa ports. They won’t be operating again until well after they war.
They play by the rule: Winner Takes All.
But they lost.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 25 2023 0:09 utc | 91

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 24 2023 23:31 utc | 85
Show me evidence of this new found competency, as I can show you plenty of examples of the opposite. NATO runs the ISR, have from day one, they give the UAF hand me downs, but use this situation to stop them doing something really stupid. Anyway, even if they could magic up commanders and their staff who have corps level experience, few to none of their subordinate formations would. Russian senior commanders lead formations that are becoming reconstituted back into their traditional divisional/ corps structures. The focus on lower level units, as core building blocks, was a measure borne of necessity not desire, which is now being reversed by the influx of 500k newly mobilised troops. Numbers though are not the whole story, most of those mobilised still have the systemic muscle memory of working within those higher level formations, so will only take time to get up to speed with new TO&E’s and concomitant changes to SOP’s.
The prefix ‘premier’ simply reflects the fact that no other army has as much existing experience fighting a multi-spectrum, peer to peer conflict. There is a big difference between potential and actual performance and only the Russians have experienced and survived that process. So yes, they are number one, China btw does not come close.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 25 2023 0:17 utc | 92

NATO could have disbanded in concert with the Warsaw Pact. Bill Clinton’s foreign policy team, Russophobes all, demanded to march NATO to Russia’s western front and flanks, then over them into Russia if economic and covert subversion of Russian institutions had not already made a full military occupation there a mere walk over.
Now NATO must surrender to Russia, unconditionally, and perforce disband. How many problems does this solve? EBB might sing of them, . . . Let me count the ways . . . .
I believe this is the decision arrived at by Presidents Putin and Xi during their recent gatherings in Moscow: NATO must surrender and disband, some 30 years after the opportunity emerged for NATO’s voluntary sensibleness. Ukraine is a battle field of a war to compel NATO to surrender unconditionally. That surrender is the outcome coming.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 25 2023 0:22 utc | 93

West of England Andy | Jul 24 2023 20:31 utc | 49
………I’m out,……
nooooooo. please, noooo.
Timezones mean we’re rarely in the bar at the same time…. But I always enjoy encountering a dropping of Andy ironic (sardonic?) humour mid-thread, as I scroll through.
The bar needs the puncturing a bit of well placed humour delivers.
You’re our go-to guy with the witty retort that wins the thread …

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 25 2023 0:28 utc | 94

Echo Chamber | Jul 24 2023 20:42 utc | 50
*** NATO charters themselves and what ” structural reforms ” actually means when you apply to be a NATO member ***
Not to mention “convergence”.
Which inevitably means having to try to copy the rotten USA in all ways.
Cannot understand how so many of the public have still not realised what the “NATO values” (a phrase now frequently cited by its officials and political puppets) really amount to.
Or do they actually *approve* of the thoroughly sick mess, and even sicker political administration, to which society has been reduced?

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 25 2023 0:42 utc | 95

While remaining steadfast in the current military strategy in ukraine, a war of attrition must be launched on ukie soldiers.
Most video footage from ukraine show old men fighting the war indicating the dearth of young men. If Russia can increase the kill rate of ukies the collapse will hasten.
With the end of the clumsy grain deal ukie farmers are doomed. They braved the war to cultivate, even boasted about their tractors just to be left bankrupt after borrowing money to cultivate.

Posted by: Jason | Jul 25 2023 1:02 utc | 96

Some videos for today.
US-supplied Bradley tries deploying smokescreen to cover evac, but Russian drone still strikes it:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/breadd:9
Russian Lancet finishes off abandoned enemy Leopard 2A6:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/Leo3243:1
Russian T-90 tank suppress enemy firing positions near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/31133102f8a29f34a2506aa1786c4eba/
Russian forces use Shmel thermobaric weapons to clear enemy stronghold near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/5797189a03009689a0570ee0df7d9c9b/
Russian airborne forces hit enemy position with Kornet ATGM near Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/24937485b45870c896c29c85f5711639/
Russian soldiers show off ‘graveyard’ of US Bradleys:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Br_YT:7

Posted by: Nate | Jul 25 2023 1:06 utc | 97

@84 unimperator.
It’s a good bet Ukrainian estimates of russian casualties is closer to their own so they can think they’re doing as good as they get.
Less makes them think they’re losing, more and its too big a number.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 25 2023 1:15 utc | 98

Never extend the grain deal! Ending the grain deal is the last nail on the coffin of Ukraine’s faltering economy as 6 out of top 10 exports in 2022 were grains. Ending the grain deal ends these Ukrainian industries. Poland, Hungary and Romania don’t allow Ukrainian grain as it is a threat to their agriculture.
https://www.worldstopexports.com/ukraines-top-10-exports/
It gets better. The remaining 4 top exports were iron and related goods. They are extracted and processed in war zones so they are kaput too.
The military economic strategy on Ukraine is perfect. Well done Russia. This is a masterstroke. I’m not surprised that western media are totally numb and dumb about the economic side of the war. Amazing strategy indeed! Just love it.

Posted by: Jason | Jul 25 2023 1:18 utc | 99

“Ukraine is a battle field of a war to compel NATO to surrender unconditionally. That surrender is the outcome coming.”
Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 25 2023 0:22 utc | 91
If only – If you were America and you defeated Russia what would you do and how would you break Russia up and asset strip Russia’s real resources?
Well the answer to those questions are written down very clearly in every right wing/ liberal mainstream economic textbook. It is the ” how to guide” to do it. Written by American and British economists.
Slash spending, run balanced budgets, slash taxes, export your way to growth, privatise everything in your sight, pile loan after loan on the backs of households and businesses to increase demand etc, free trade, free movement of capital, free movement of people, anti trade unions and interest rate targeting etc, etc – you know the last 50 year play book by now.
That’s Russia ‘s existential threat and their main security concerns.
And yet, the whole of Europe and Australia and New Zealand etc, etc, willingly sign up to exactly that. Conservatives and liberals run to the polling booths singing ode to joy and wave flags while they do it.
That’s the sheer brute force of propaganda piled upon many myths forced down the throats of voters to accept freely Russia ‘s existential threat and their main security concerns as their very own A++ Economic model. On top of which most handed over their sovereignty to somebody else.
Think about that.. Really, deeply think about that.
Then think about Russia’s economic model and compare that with what they view as their existential threat and their main security concerns.
Slash spending √
run balanced budgets √
slash taxes √
export your way to growth √
privatise everything in your sight √
pile loan after loan on the backs of households and businesses to increase demand √
free trade √
free movement of capital √
free movement of people √
Anti trade unions √
Interest rate targeting √
So then the question becomes will anything change with the Surrender of NATO ?
Or is it merely a war of the different upper classes. All of which prosper at everyone’s expense. A war which decides who gets to use this A++ Economic model and where. From which to extract rent ?
When really what needs to happen is To reclaim the state we all live under, we have to start with ourselves. Free ourselves from what many have come to accept as the A++ Economic model ? When really there isn’t anything GOOD about it at all.
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=48907

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 25 2023 1:23 utc | 100

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