Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 23, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-176

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

The Poles have no surrogate force with which to invade western Ukraine. A blessing for the Poles.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 23 2023 14:16 utc | 1

The dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of its lands to Poland are unacceptable, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on 23 July, BelTA has learned.
“We saw it six months ago. We discussed this before. This is unacceptable to us. The alienation of western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of its lands to Poland are unacceptable. Should people in Western Ukraine ask us then we will provide support to them. I ask you to discuss and think about this issue. Naturally, I would like you to support us in this regard. If the need in such support arises, if Western Ukraine asks us for help, then we will provide assistance and support to people in western Ukraine. If this happens, we will support them in every possible way,” the Belarusian leader stressed.
“Because in the west we have this military influence of the Balts and Poles. We do not want such influence from the south. As you said, the Union State will still have to defend itself. Therefore, such approaches are unacceptable,” Aleksandr Lukashenko added.
He once again stressed that the parties intend to counteract such a development in every possible way. “I ask you to look into this issue in terms of our support for western Ukraine,” the head of state noted addressing his Russian counterpart.

Posted by: Swënn | Jul 23 2023 14:25 utc | 2

We knew they probably wouldn’t succeed but we gave them weapons, brainwashed the hell out of them and gave them all kinds of good drugs, hoping their “courage” would defeat a complete, well trained army.
The Ukrainian soldiers obviously not the only ones on drugs. SMH

Posted by: Watzov | Jul 23 2023 14:38 utc | 3

The Ukrainian soldiers obviously not the only ones on drugs. SMH
Posted by: Watzov | Jul 23 2023 14:38 u
The others run on hubris and the blood of proxies .
Its pretty hard to find the means to describe the evil involved at this stage.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 23 2023 14:52 utc | 4

The empire of lies….
“Never under estimate Joe’s ability to f things up”.
Nobel peace prize winner Barack Obama-:)

Posted by: Robert Hope | Jul 23 2023 15:03 utc | 5

Have there been any assessments of the impact of the latest cluster munition attacks on Russian lines?
I’ve heard the AFU has begun using cluster bombs on troops, and rumours about the RF moving cluster bombs out of stores.
Wondering to what extent the RF are going to retaliate with the same type of weapons (if at all).

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 23 2023 15:05 utc | 6

4,000 german troops in Lithuania for the purpose of together with Lithuanians and Polaks to liberate Krolewiec from Russian occupation. No nation accept foreign military base on its borders, just like Russia in case of “Strana 404″. Plain to everybody. If mr. Rasputin won’t vacate that RE, there will be a bloodshade, many would die on both sides. ” Panama yeah ?”

Posted by: Lech | Jul 23 2023 15:11 utc | 7

“Never under estimate Joe’s ability to f things up”.
Nobel peace prize winner Barack Obama-:)

Posted by: Robert Hope | Jul 23 2023 15:03 utc | 4
I have to say Joe has surpassed my wildest expectations. He has surpassed Trump/Pompeo.

So I hear Barack has dropped his Summer Playlist, trying to follow in Jimmy’s C’s path of dogooderism to elder statesmanhood. Perhaps he hopes that like Jimmy, what he did in office will not get noticed.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 15:12 utc | 8

From the last ukraine thread
The main thing from the new briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry:
— The Yug group repelled two enemy attacks in the Zaporozhye direction in the area of the settlement of Workino;
— The group “South” repelled the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Novomikhailovka in the DPR;
— The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed objects in the area of Odessa, where terrorist acts against the Russian Federation were being prepared with the use of unmanned boats;
— There were foreign mercenaries at the affected facilities near Odessa, where terrorist attacks against the Russian Federation were being prepared;
— Russian troops destroyed more than 160 Ukrainian military and 7 Leopard tanks in the South Donets and Zaporozhye directions;
— Russian troops hit three control points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region, the LPR and the DPR, as well as a fuel depot in the Zaporozhye region;
— The Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 near Verolyubovka in the DPR, air defense intercepted a HIMARS MLRS projectile and a Storm Shadow cruise missile;
— Russian troops repelled six APU attacks in the Krasnolimansk direction;
— Russian troops stopped the activities of a group of Ukrainian saboteurs near the village of Nevskoye in the LPR;
— The losses of the APU in the Krasnolimansk direction exceeded 130 people per day;
— Russian troops repelled 14 APU attacks in the Donetsk direction during the day, enemy losses amounted to up to 370 servicemen;
Posted by: Rubal | Jul 23 2023 9:17 utc | 50
SEVEN leopards destroyed!

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 23 2023 15:39 utc | 9

I’ll bet the Russians can hardly wait for that new Leopard factory to be completed in Ukraine!

Posted by: qparker | Jul 23 2023 15:43 utc | 10

Putin and Lukashenko will make their decisions about western Ukraine, but if it was me I’d let the poles have it. It’s a grenade with the pin pulled sitting in Europe’s lap.
Remember that the Banderite ideology wasn’t initially about Russians much at all. It was developed against the Poles who ruled western Ukraine. So create a reservoir of Bandera in western Ukraine administered by the Poles and hopefully with visa free access to Europe. Bandera will come to realize that they were stabbed in the back. It won’t stop their hatred for Russia or attempted terrorism against Russia, but in time that anger will turn west. The historical grievances will be remembered. The Poles haven’t forgotten in any case.
Poland relies on EU and American largesse. It can’t realistically incorporate the least economically valuable part of Ukraine and its people. It will be a festering failed state semi-incorporated into Poland. And the grand plans of Polish military expansion will be spent sitting on the Belarus border and dealing with the Ukrainians. At some point Konfederacia or similar right wing party will win Polish elections and take all of Poland’s problems out on the Ukrainians.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 23 2023 15:51 utc | 11

Posted by: Lex | Jul 23 2023 15:51 utc | 11
but in time that anger will turn west

Imagine what happens, if the Ukrainians learn that they have been used by the west and that the west never had the intention to let them into the EU/NATO…

Posted by: Tuk | Jul 23 2023 16:07 utc | 12

I have heard that the Russians have broken through the front line and that the Ukrainian front has collapsed at a certain point. Let’s find an appropriate language usage for the new situation. I mean, none of us barflies wants to see crying barfleas.
My suggestion would be: After the successful completion of the largest counteroffensive every, Ukrainian and Russian troops are moving jointly towards Kiev to hold a fitting victory celebration.
What do you think?

Posted by: Tuk | Jul 23 2023 16:17 utc | 13

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-07-23/blinken-says-ukraine-has-taken-back-50-of-territory-that-russia-seized
Blinken states Ukraine has taken 50% (FIFTY) of Russian occupied territory back.
The rest might take a few months.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 23 2023 16:28 utc | 14

The week in review post cites the Wall Street Journal propaganda piece called Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia.
Risks stalemate?
All those rotting Ukrainian corpses are already stale, mate.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 23 2023 16:34 utc | 15

@Tuk 12
Nothing will happen. Nobody on either side cares any longer what they think.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 23 2023 16:35 utc | 16

@Lex 11
Luka said in his latest video with Putin that Belarus has no wish to see west Ukranazistan go to Polandistan and if the Ukrainian people there want Belarus to intervene to stop it, Belarus is prepared to do that.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 23 2023 16:38 utc | 17

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-07-23/blinken-says-ukraine-has-taken-back-50-of-territory-that-russia-seized
Blinken 50% considered:
I’m guessing some weird way of reaching 50% by the word salad of “initially took”… so if we go back to February 26th of 2022… considered the surrounding of Kiev… Isium, Kharkiv, Khearson, Zapporizia (others I missed from prior to Peace talks??) Then the withdrawals from said areas…
Hum, still not seeing 50%…
But as every American and European knows, Ukraine actually “beat them back “ and continue to do so till this day as their “defensive/counter offensive/ defense line crumbles.
Just a few more months, and Ukraine will have all Russian occupied territory under its control!
Good night… the Meme folks will have a field day with this latest PR “sell” word salad,

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 23 2023 16:43 utc | 18

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 15:12 utc | 8
Jimmy tried to start transitioning to solar, and noticed the “inordinate fear of communism” of the us and the foreign policy establishment. he also tried to prepare the US for less consumption. all of these flew in the face of the emerging neoliberal consensus of both parties.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 23 2023 16:46 utc | 19

“.. This is unacceptable to us. The alienation of western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of its lands to Poland are unacceptable. Should people in Western Ukraine ask us then we will provide support to them…”
The assumption, often made that the population of large areas of Ukraine would prefer the rule of Poles or Germans, Lithuanians or Letts is, I believe erroneous. The basis of the Bandera party in Ukraine is external. In blunt terms Bandera’s party is that of the CIA and MI6 and their various dependencies such as CSIS in Canada.
It is more likely that pro-Russian, anti NATO forces become a permanent part of Ukraine’s political landscape than that any significant number of Ukrainians in the Donbas and New Russia will resist re-unification with Russia.
The Ukrainian regime has three pillars of support: the Bandera-ites, the Oligarchs and the deluded people who regard NATO and the EU as gateways into a better, more prosperous, cooler world. That last group is rapidly diminishing in size and influence as the reality of German and Polish imperialism and US contempt for a population that they have consigned into a Nazi run hell becomes clearer.
The Maidan probably represented the peak of EU/NATO delusion- since 2014 things have just got worse. And ordinary Ukrainians understand that the blame lies not with the Russians but with the peoole who have closed down the press, taken over all media, disappeared opponents and roam the streets kidnapping ordinary people to fill the meat grinder’s maw.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 23 2023 16:47 utc | 20

Hey Biswapriya, how come no new comics?

Posted by: Calgary Guy | Jul 23 2023 16:49 utc | 21

Tuk @ 13
I have heard that the Russians have broken through the front line and that the Ukrainian front has collapsed at a certain point. Let’s find an appropriate language usage for the new situation. I mean, none of us barflies wants to see crying barfleas.
Response: Weeb Union and Defense Politics Asia reported that the Russian have formed and extended their bridgehead West of Kharmazynivka. This week will show where this bridgehead will go, if anywhere.
Just got a post from Hal Turner that NATO recalls troops from the front lines in Ukraine.
I will discount these reports until some time has proven them true or false.
With the continual escalation of the Russo/Ukrainian war, eventually something is going to give to make this conflict a lot more serious than it already is.
For sure the narrative is changing as evident by the change in the reporting from the Western Main Stream media.

Posted by: young | Jul 23 2023 16:52 utc | 22

There’s plans afoot to make a Martime corridor along the nato states in the black sea. There’s going to be some sort of confrontation and all sorts of weapons mixed in with commercial shipments.
Concurrently a naval confrontation is brewing in the Persian gulf over seized oil tankers.
I smell a challenge to nato naval supremacy brewing. Will russia and Iran finally cooperate better? They keep having a rivalry instead of an alliance. Russian diplomacy could sure be better.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 23 2023 16:53 utc | 23

Calvary Guy 21:
I’ve been overworked and had bronchitis.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 23 2023 16:59 utc | 24

Imagine what happens, if the Ukrainians learn that they have been used by the west and that the west never had the intention to let them into the EU/NATO…
Posted by: Tuk | Jul 23 2023 16:07 utc | 12
——————————————————————
They Ukies don’t know that NATO told Z to defeat the Russians first? Is the control over news and the word-of-mouth channel that tight?
BTW, if and when Z defeats the Russkies, what is the point of NATO membership? 2% of that incredibly shrinking GDP might not be a burden, but what would be the point?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 23 2023 17:01 utc | 25

Poland’s government prematurely ejaculated thinking they were oh so clever and loyal Imperial good boys to send their sons “secretly” as mercenaries to die in Ukraine. They’ve been the largest merc nationality by Russian records. Now its military is bloodied & shaken with its petit mort. Even if they wanted to it will take some time to rally the blood flow and courage again.
… and they still know they can’t defy Russia and Belorussia in this. American military already hinted to Poland & Lithuania they’ll be on their own if they do more clever, ‘loyal’ stunts. Naturally Satan’s Own, the NeoCons, have probably told them to do it and already given assurances.
It’s now a matter of seeing how stupid their elites are, and how cowardly and stupid the average people are if they will fight back against them to stay alive or meekly comply & die. Any bets? We’ll settle in toothpicks and sand grains. 😉

Posted by: titmouse | Jul 23 2023 17:08 utc | 26

Posted by: Tuk | Jul 23 2023 16:07 utc | 12

Imagine what happens, if the Ukrainians learn that they have been used by the west and that the west never had the intention to let them into the EU/NATO…

The thing about a whore is that she never really despises her pimp.
She’ll despise her own father first before she ever blames the pimp.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 23 2023 17:11 utc | 27

NY Times analysis claims war is a stalemate and “Russian artillery no longer has the clear advantage.” Thoughts on that?
Also, can someone here please explain what this means, i.e. what is a 200% casualties? Everyone dead twice?
“We’re trading our people for their people and they have more people and equipment,” said one Ukrainian commander whose platoon has suffered around 200 percent casualties since Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/world/europe/weary-soldiersunreliable-munitions-ukraines-many-challenges.html

Posted by: bill wolfe | Jul 23 2023 17:12 utc | 28

Rheinmetall responds to Russian threats:
it will defend its plant in Ukraine. Armin Papperger, CEO of the German arms concern Rheinmetall, has responded to Russian authorities that have threatened to view the concern’s future plant in Ukraine a “legitimate target” of the Russian Federation.3 days ago
Papperger said that Rheinmetall would not abandon its plans to set up a plant in Ukraine, and that they planned to protect it from attacks with air defence systems of their own manufacture.

Are they really going to build a tank plant in Ukraine?

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 23 2023 17:15 utc | 29

but if it was me I’d let the poles have it (…) It can’t realistically incorporate the least economically valuable part of Ukraine and its people. It will be a festering failed state semi-incorporated into Poland.
Posted by: Lex | Jul 23 2023 15:51 utc | 11
I’ve said before. If Poland wants those historical parts (or Hungarians or Romanians), all they have to do is organize a referendum. No shots fired, a week later it’s done. But US has other plans, a much bigger territory, a wide Syria 2, to last 20+ years. No one needs peasants and prostitutes from Lvov to feed, the workers are already dead on the front line. Also, someone has to take Odessa and give it to Bojo, someone has to isolate Transnistria. Who will do it? US won’t do it themselves, other retards, in addition to Ukr, will be used. Watch Marty from America to get an idea how sad some people, like himself, are since Bakhmut was liberated by Wagners. Big problem, it “wasn’t supposed to happen”. But what was supposed to happen? A Minsk 3? Another retreat? In Syria, their little base is not far from being bombed ( tass.com/world/1650579 ). And Putin can’t travel to S.A. because they still want to arrest him. It seems the only thing multipolar is BRICS itself, with 3 sides. R, C and IBS = US side. BRICS literally suffers from Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Posted by: rk | Jul 23 2023 17:17 utc | 30

Also, can someone here please explain what this means, i.e. what is a 200% casualties? Everyone dead twice?

Posted by: bill wolfe | Jul 23 2023 17:12 utc | 28
Yes, I have been trying for some time to find out what “300% less” of something means. One leaps to the answer “one third”; but can you really be sure? And it is clear 33% less is not what is meant either, that would be two thirds. I suspect one is only getting one third of what one had before.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 17:19 utc | 31

Posted by: bill wolfe | Jul 23 2023 17:12 utc | 28

Russian artillery no longer has the clear advantage.” Thoughts on that?

They are trying to say the cluster munitions have leveled the playing fields.
Check back in a few months when the impact of Russian cluster bombs sinks in.

said one Ukrainian commander whose platoon has suffered around 200 percent casualties since Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year.”

I think 200% casualties means the platoon was wiped out twice and had to be reconstituted twice.
But then again, it’s hard to make sense of anything the Ukrainians say on any given day.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 23 2023 17:24 utc | 32

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 17:19 utc | 31
It means the military unit has had to be fully reconstituted twice, as the first and second intakes become casualties. Some WWII companies in the NW theatre had 7-800% casualties!

Posted by: Milites | Jul 23 2023 17:29 utc | 33

reply to 18
Blinken’s bullsh*t is good news. It gives them a propaganda basis for ending the war through negotiation.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 23 2023 17:30 utc | 34

@bevin #20
‘The basis of the Bandera party in Ukraine is external. In blunt terms Bandera’s party is that of the CIA and MI6 and their various dependencies such as CSIS in Canada.’
Since end of WWII. A tool of empire. And disposable if of no further use.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 23 2023 17:33 utc | 35

I read the Foreign Policy article about cluster bombs and liberalism from the Week in Review. I tried to read another article rationalizing use of said cluster bombs for the cluster f***, but it was behind FP’s paywall. I was able to click on a link in the paywalled article with a list of what 42 billion dollars has provided Slava Ukraina! as of July 7, 2023. It’s been a couple of weeks since the list was compiled, and I didn’t see any “dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or DPICMs” on it. I learned that that is the nice way to say cluster bombs from the rationalization’s article’s author Oz Katerji, a British Lebanese freelance journalist focusing on conflict, human rights, and the Middle East. so the price has probably gone up a few billion fiat dollars. At least defense.gov has been keeping track. 10% for Big Guy and a couple of pounds of flesh were probably skipped over and will be listed as petty cash for Cargill agricultural consultants.
Ukriane Fact Sheet from Defense.gov
Somebody has to pay for that clobber list! Where are my freedom fries?

Posted by: lex talionis | Jul 23 2023 17:33 utc | 36

@rk30
Quote “Watch Marty from America to get an idea how sad some people, like himself, are since Bakhmut was liberated by Wagners. Big problem, it “wasn’t supposed to happen”. But what was supposed to happen? A Minsk 3? Another retreat? In Syria, their little base is not far from being bombed ( tass.com/world/1650579″
That Marty like saker is a deluded man. He says exactly opposite of what is happening as if he were enemy of Russia and want to put Russia on wayward direction. His type hates practical patriots aswell. Anything Putin does, even if disastrous, is 7D chess!

Posted by: Sam | Jul 23 2023 17:33 utc | 37

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 17:19 utc | 31
It means the military unit has had to be fully reconstituted twice, as the first and second intakes become casualties. Some WWII companies in the NW theatre had 7-800% casualties!
Posted by: Milites | Jul 23 2023 17:29 utc | 33
Yeah, OK. I think some Ukrainian units have likely been reconstituted many times now. Wagner probably too. Presumably people are being cycled in and out of the front line too, of course, can’t stay combat effective for more than a few months, heh heh.
It is true that on the scale of WWI and WWII this is not that impressive. Maybe they could replace it with a battle where they seek to drown each other in cash, save everybody else a lot of trouble.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 17:39 utc | 38

An excellent question was posed at the end of Maria Zakharova’s briefing on the 20th I’ve yet to see referred to that explains the genuine nature of the conflict occurring within Ukraine:

Question: Why is Russia forced to fight with Ukraine and cannot pose a threat directly to the United States itself, so that they, in turn, think about supplying further weapons?
Maria Zakharova: Russia is not at war with Ukraine. Russia is repelling hybrid aggression from the West. His “bargaining chip” was Ukraine: a hostage, a victim, and a toolkit. We need to clearly separate these things. It’s like that same manipulative story. Everything seems to be obvious. There is Russia, Ukraine, there is a conflict. For the uninitiated, who do not know either modern or global history, it may look like this. Unfortunately, this is exactly what is presented in the Western media, it is promoted in remote regions of the world, not so dedicated to events. In fact, this is not the case.
All these decades, Russia has had no desire to do anything other than cooperation. We recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine, built true relations of respect for it as a sovereign state, exchanged embassies, concluded international agreements, sent ambassadors at the political level. All this spoke of a special relationship, but at the same time respect for sovereignty. Moreover, never in all the decades before the coup d’état of 2014, which launched the destructive dynamics of the collapse of statehood in Ukraine, Russia did not make any claims, did not raise the question of the ownership of Crimea. I only helped my compatriots. On the basis of bilateral relations, she developed humanitarian and economic ties. The agreements on the basing of the Black Sea Fleet were exclusively within the legal framework. They were beneficial primarily to Ukraine, which receives colossal funds for this. There was not even any intention to exacerbate problematic issues, to bring them to conflict situations.
But the West appeared. Immediately after the beginning of Ukraine’s sovereign path. I’ve been there before, but illegally. Then he began to “legalize” his status. The state bodies of Ukraine were “stuffed” with special services, primarily the United States and NATO countries. Places in government structures began to be occupied by foreigners, people directly affiliated with foreign countries, having passports, residence permits, grant support and pursuing Western interests. Accordingly, the destruction of the statehood of Ukraine began, putting it under the control of the West. Then puppet figures and the government are installed. Under the dictation of the United States, the connection that we had with Ukraine, both within the framework of the USSR, both before and after, began to collapse.
Then this country began to turn into a NATO training ground, preparing to become another NATO base with an obvious aggressive goal against our country. All political and diplomatic efforts, opportunities and proposals were made to resolve this absolutely absurd issue. Because we were given assurances about the non-expansion of NATO to the east. It [the issue] would be resolved by political and diplomatic methods. All proposals on our part were made, but they were rejected by the West. Accordingly, against the background of the growth of nationalism, which appeared not ten years ago, but has long been implanted and nurtured by the West, coups d’état and the collapse of statehood took place. All this led to the beginning of direct clashes between NATO and Russia.
Let me remind you that in the summer of 2021, during the exercises, a British destroyer broke through the Russian border in the Black Sea. In the autumn of 2021, a dangerous rapprochement between NATO aircraft and civil aviation from both Russia and other countries was recorded in our airspace. What kind of Russian-Ukrainian conflict can we talk about when it comes to the actions of the alliance led by the United States, Great Britain and their satellites such as the Baltic states and Poland, to unleash a conflict on the territory of Ukraine directed against our country. To this must be added the economic sanctions imposed on Russia long before 2022, which aimed at the economic “strangulation” of our country, its “making” dependent on Western countries. The energy sector was one of the main “points of attraction” of the West to Ukraine in order to put the transit of Russian gas to Europe under control. An absolutely normal economic project, from which Ukraine received large incomes, which was purely peaceful, focused on the cooperation of the entire European continent, stood like a “bone in the throat” of the United States. They constantly used it as a sore point, undermined this story in order to control the supply of Russian gas to Europe, influence pricing and create an unnatural zone of tension and instability around energy issues on the European continent in order to replace it with American gas and completely control the whole situation. I could not help but react to this, based on your phrase.
As for your question, let me explain. The aggressor is not Russia, but the United States. And we repel this aggression. Everything that is necessary for this is done. [My Emphasis]

Maria’s explanation is how I’ve seen this since the outset that began with the coup in 2014. Being of the West and despising what the West’s become since my birth has become most uncomfortable. I don’t feel like a rebel; what I see is those running the nation becoming increasingly deviant since 1913 with continually escalating criminality, albeit with a de-escalation during FDR’s tenure–but not a complete reversal. And I know I’m not the only one feeling that way.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 23 2023 17:47 utc | 39

Izvestia lead-in today–
“Blinken outlined the timing of the delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine
Blinken: delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine will take several months”
Flying in will prove challenging and landing a pile of parts mess. Face-saving bluster and nothing more.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 23 2023 18:05 utc | 40

Karl,
Indeed – that’s why I never say Ukraine’s Army ; it’s always NATOs military.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 23 2023 18:10 utc | 41

IMHO, it is financially viable for Poland to incorporate Western Ukraine, provided it is Germany that pays.
Incorporating Western Ukraine in Poland lowers the average Polish wage, which increases EU subsidies for Poland. It’s going to be Germany that pays Polish expansion.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 23 2023 18:15 utc | 42

qparker@10….if they build it near a major bridge beside a railroad station…..I don’t know, these seem to be the biggest issue Russia has in finding….maybe if Soggybottom gets his way they’ll paint the plant in camouflage Rainbow colours.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 23 2023 18:26 utc | 43

Maria Zakharova: Russia is not at war with Ukraine. Russia is repelling hybrid aggression from the West.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 23 2023 17:47 utc | 39
Karlof
The above should be put up in lights
It that uncomfortable truth no-one mentioned in all the arguments.
A lot of lives have been destroyed ignoring it.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 23 2023 18:26 utc | 44

Posted by: Swënn | Jul 23 2023 14:25 utc | 2
«The dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of its lands to Poland are unacceptable, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on 23 July»
Very understandable: when the USSR invaded the eastern half of Poland (and the french and english government did not declare war against it as they had against the Third Reich), they attached northern Ruthenia as the western part of the Belarussian SSR, and southern Ruthenia as the western part of the Ukrainian SSR.
During WW2 the northern ruthenian fascists worked, as the southern ruthenian fascists did, with the nazis against the soviets.
Currently the northern ruthenian fascists, trained and funded and armed by the USA as the southern ruthenians, are those pushing for regime change in Minsk, so not only western Belarus joins NATO, but the whole of Belarus.

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 23 2023 18:34 utc | 45

Blinken states Ukraine has taken 50% (FIFTY) of Russian occupied territory back.
The rest might take a few months.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 23 2023 16:28 utc | 14
As with everything.
Blinken is economical with his interpretation of mathematics.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 23 2023 18:40 utc | 46

Are they really going to build a tank plant in Ukraine?
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 23 2023 17:15 utc | 29
Based on the experience of the conflict, the most likely defense for a possible tank factory is that it would be built under a children’s home, a maternity hospital, or a home for the war-disabled.
Air defenses would have to be operated by the AFU, or by civilians hired by Rheinmetall. The air defense of the AFU is known to us all, as far as it still exists.
Of course, you can still lay carpet in a burning house, but….
In any case, Rheinmetall wants to collect the money for the contract, or even more for the “air defense”.

Posted by: 600w | Jul 23 2023 18:40 utc | 47

bill wolfe | Jul 23 2023 17:12 utc | 28
“NY Times analysis claims war is a stalemate and “Russian artillery no longer has the clear advantage.” Thoughts on that?”
The Russian leadership and its fanboys agree that stalemate is the best the Russian military can accomplish. That’s why nothing ever can be done.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 23 2023 18:50 utc | 48

These Russian lancets are extremely dangerous, but Ukrainians dream so much in NATO, the war continues to the last ukrainian.
https://t.me/razved_dozor/4822

Posted by: Psycho | Jul 23 2023 18:52 utc | 49

You all MoA’s should not be suprised about the real newly discovwewd RF losses.!
That’s a war, but not any of those Computer games freaks a la China nerds published and stimulated by the “Tik’n Tok” for its profits, called by low-level young fashion minded girls ..
That’s here a real war!
Go on the grond fields ! Every day You (as a Youngster) may follow-up soldiers dying on either side, go there directly !
PS: RF-Mil has lost since last 3 weeks, when starting You (RF) an “Offensive” ..?
You – RF-Soldiers are strong – set on now Your own CLUSTER-Ammo! Go ahead ! ..
Beside “we’ll” eliminate the EU Monster led by Ursula v.d.Liars on our onw “ways”, needed
toeday by engaged Snipers — Or not doing so by international “law” .. ?

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 23 2023 18:57 utc | 50

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-07-23/blinken-says-ukraine-has-taken-back-50-of-territory-that-russia-seized
Blinken states Ukraine has taken 50% (FIFTY) of Russian occupied territory back.
The rest might take a few months.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 23 2023 16:28 utc | 14

That’s just laughable and confirmation (not that we need any) about Blinken’s qualifications and general intelligence. Very soon Russian counter-offensive gains (from Avdeevka to Kupyansk) exceed those of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 19:01 utc | 51

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 23 2023 17:39 utc | 38
It’s an interesting admission because it accord closely to the idea that Ukraine has lost two armies and is rapidly working her way through a third. It also means that soldiers with combat experience, especially NCO’s, are next to non-existent, meaning each new iteration is less effective than the last. At some stage these units fold under the increasing pressure they are put under and the frontline changes dramatically. The opposite is also true, units that accrue combat experience and survive largely intact become far more capable units.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 23 2023 19:01 utc | 52

Neofeudalfuture @ 23
If there are going to be serious naval engagements in the Black Sea and Persian Gulf my question is, What hapens to the reactors on the ships when they sink, get damaged, or crack open?

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 23 2023 19:02 utc | 53

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 23 2023 17:15 utc | 29
Saw a picture and documentation on those German Rheinmetall anti-air weapons they plan to use to protect their tank factory. It was (IIRC) some sort of 50mm gattling gun, firing around 1000 rounds per minute with a muzzle velocity of 1000m/s and has an effective range of 5km. My understanding and how they showed the promo video of it was that it is useful for slow flying drones.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 19:11 utc | 54

Blinken’s bullsh*t is good news. …
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 23 2023 17:30 utc | 34

Speaking of bullshit / propaganda, CIA chief Burn had a real Colin Powell moment the other day when he desperately tried to influence Russian politics with this:

Putin is trying to buy time with Prigozhin but will get revenge since he is the ‘ultimate apostle of payback,’ CIA director William Burns says

Almost impossible to imagine that there’s anyone with an interest in the matter who wouldn’t see through him in an instant! Dunce cap material.
One can deduce a lot from the effort that western outlets go to disparage Wagner, Prigozhin, and even those in RF MoD thought to be supportive of Wagner.
One can learn even more from noting which most senior RF military figures western outlets make little or no effort to denigrate.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 23 2023 19:12 utc | 55

Dear China “Tik-Toc” young memebers – coped an advice from Buddha :
“Be carefully getting any sense into Your actual mind, after having filtered the power of ghost of Your enemy, that is trying to influence/destroy You.
Lernen, muss auch der 9/11 Master-Gov/CIA irgendwann ‘mal. Oder enden auf dem Schafott (eg. by a Sniper) – Are You ready? Don’t think so, pitty ..

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 23 2023 19:15 utc | 56

Are they really going to build a tank plant in Ukraine?

The German in me can quite appreciate the efficiency of producing tanks as closely as possible to the place where they’ll be destroyed.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Jul 23 2023 19:16 utc | 57

We are used to Paul Craig Roberts being apocalyptic, but of course war is not his cup of tea. He quotes in his recent blog the ex diplomat Bhadrakumar’s latest article. That is pretty gloomy also. https://www.indianpunchline.com/storm-clouds-gathering-in-the-black-sea/
What happened to Bhadrakumar? He is normally very level headed. Are we really going to get a sea war?

Posted by: Teraspol | Jul 23 2023 19:23 utc | 58

I was just reading on RT that Lukashenko has informed Putin that the Wagner PMC fighters in Belarus are in a “Bad Mood” and want to go on a “tour” of Poland.
According to Lukashenko, the fighters hosted in the country are starting to “concern” local authorities, as they want to “go on tour to Poland” to visit Warsaw and Rzeszow, which they believe was a hub for providing Ukrainian troops with military hardware during the fighting for the key Donbass city of Artyomovsk (also known as Bakhmut).
Poland rushes more troops to the Belarus border. Poland should be very afraid of Wagner’s Up Armored Tour Busses. 🙂

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 19:34 utc | 59

Posted by: Teraspol | Jul 23 2023 19:23 utc | 58
The anxiety of neocons on the Black Sea indicates that

a) The attempt to move Ukrainian grain on wheels is very inefficient and will make it too expensive and hence, irrelevant as a supply source for EU
a1) Therefore Nato wants to keep the sea transport
b) Nato is planning to follow Nord stream with Turk Stream gas pipe
c) Nato would like to use underwater drones to destroy Russian ships with Ukraine plausible liability umbrella
d) White House said Russia will lay mines to block AFU ports
-> In reality, AFU has laid mines to protect its own ports from invasion, which have broke off their moorings and pose random danger for sea traffic. They will see everything coming through Bosphorus strait

Russia will keep their anti-ship powder dry, which are on a superior level in every level compared to the west, waiting for Nato move.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 19:38 utc | 60

Papperger said that Rheinmetall would not abandon its plans to set up a plant in Ukraine, and that they planned to protect it from attacks with air defence systems of their own manufacture.
Are they really going to build a tank plant in Ukraine?

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 23 2023 17:15 utc | 29
Courios. A weapons plant defending itself… Mercenaries having trouble with politicians or Generals of their employer. Mercenaries rebelling against their employer….
These are stories straight from “Battletech” novels and can be read there multiple times.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Jul 23 2023 19:43 utc | 61

The Ukie/Nato suicide offensive to the south towards Crimea – Rus MoD have obviously been sure about this for sometime so they set up impenetrable defenses in that direction, yet the Americans are sending the cannon fodder into suicide charges against it even though those massive defenses are public knowledge.
This about more than propaganda value in attacking Crimea, rather Sevastopol and control of the Black Sea. The Americans and Brits are absolutely desperate for that as it would be more than just a propaganda defeat for Russia. It would cause great harm to Russian security.
Judging by the fact that the US embassy in Kiev had put out tenders for works at Sevastopol, and how quickly and competently Russia moved to take Crimea back into the Russian federation, Sevastopol was most likely the most prized part of Ukraine for the Anglo empire.
The nuke disaster was called off when Rus MoD gave very exact details of the plant attack. I assume that was a combine Brit Ukie nazi initiative. So transparent. Rus MoD gives exact details and a day or two later Ukies say the threat of a nuclear disaster has passed.
The Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. Belarus was the part of Kievan Rus that came under the control of Lithuania and Ukraine that can be seen on CIA insurgency maps of the past was the part of Kievan Rus that came under the control of Poland.
The revival of the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth and their ambitions is like a couple of undersized geriatrics in an aged care facility plotting a bar room brawl or an armed robbery. Perhaps they just intend to take control of western Ukaine, but Judging by Russia’s reactions, they have much larger ambitions.
But whatever occurs, there is now total confusion and desperation in the Empire of lies due to their great loss/defeat in the war against Russia. And then there is the Euro twits, the bobbling heads as Putin calls them. They have all bet their political balls on defeating Russia.
Interesting times.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 19:46 utc | 62

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 19:34 utc | 59
Wagner goes rogue, invades Poland, takes out NATO bases. Withdraws back to Belarus. Russia has plausible deniability – it wasn’t our idea. It was that crazy Prighozhin – see how he tried the same thing in Rostov back in June?
Just sayin’

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 23 2023 19:55 utc | 63

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 19:46 utc | 62
Putin said Russia won’t interfere if Poland decides to Anschluss western Ukraine, but they will hit Poland hard if it tries to take a slice of Belarus.
Meanwhile Lukashenko said they won’t accept Poland taking western Ukraine.
Not sure how that should be interpreted.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 20:07 utc | 64

@53 circumspect
Well I expect nothing nuclear in the black sea I expect it to be picked up at the end of hostilities. It’ll make riveting television. I would also expect fishing to recover if people ban it for a length of time.
Otherwise, what? Worry about it? Nah, lots of nuclear accidents, we can survive a little background radiation long enough.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 23 2023 20:14 utc | 65

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 19:11 utc | 54
Re Tank plant protection
The weapon they are speaking of is the German close range Millennium system. 35m mm, 1000 RPM,Radar aimed
It hasd been around for a while. Used on ships. Similar to US Phalnax gun which has stared in many American blockbuster Hollywood movies. Like Sum of all Fears and others.
It can handle drones and some Anti ship missiles and aircraft. But I dont think it is fast enough to target Mr Kinzhal.
It does not hold a candle to Russias AK 360. The newest model, with twin 30mm Cannon puts out 10,000 rounds per minute. Devastating!
I think that Tank plant is just wishful thinking and German Bloviation.

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 20:15 utc | 66

Rheinmetall would not abandon its plans to set up a plant in Ukraine
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 23 2023 17:15 utc | 29
I hope the German tanks built at the new factory in Ukraine will be environmentally friendly, co2 neutral, promote diversity amongst the killed, and permit sustainable warfare.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 23 2023 20:19 utc | 67

@64 unimperator
Belarus stance depends on whether or not there is a request for assistance in western ukraine.
Presumably russia would follow along as well once Poland attacked Belarus. You see then it’s russia coming to it ally’s defence, part of the union state.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 23 2023 20:20 utc | 68

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 19:46 utc | 62
I admire your optimism on the NPP threat but there’s no way to know what’s going on behind the scene, maybe a deals been done, maybe not, and there’s still DU floating about, as munitions and armour plate.
On the Grain Deal, we should be suspicious of the fact that Russia’s “partners” have done everything to get Russia to back out of it short of fire missiles from the grain carriers. Borrell seemed positively energised at the fact that, in his mind, Russia could be held responsible for the failure of the deal.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 23 2023 20:20 utc | 69

unimperator | Jul 23 2023 20:07 utc | 64
Perhaps that depends on if Poland/Lithuania just take the three or so Galicia oblasts and Volyn. or they try to take all of Ukraine that does not go back to Russia. Putin has said Stalin’s biggest mistake was adding Galicia to Ukraine.
Their aspirations at the moment do appear to be larger than just Galicia and Volyn oblast. Volyn is part of old Volhynia which runs through into Belarus.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 20:21 utc | 70

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 20:15 utc | 66
Thanks for the clarification. And it was actually single barrel. It seems very standard A/D system.
Definitely useless on Kinzhal. My guess is Rheinmetall is only talking about this because they get large subsidies from German government and EU, who have hired them to build this factory. It is also a PR project for the EU of “sticking it up to Putin”.
It’s more or less a riskless proposition for Rheinmetall which will in the worst case, end up with a decent margin.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 20:23 utc | 71

Is there a rift in the Russo-Chinese relationship?
China one of the largest buyers of Ukrainian grain urges resumption of grain and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine and demands both sides should return to the negotiation table.
Was the latest Russian missile attack which damaged the Chinese consulate in Odessa just coincidence or a dire warning?

Posted by: Lesjeuxsontfaits | Jul 23 2023 20:26 utc | 72

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 23 2023 16:34 utc | 15
All those rotting Ukrainian corpses are already stale, mate.
Graham gets criticized for comments like “Russians are dying, best money we’ve spent” while Biswapriya Purkayast spews bloodlust like “All those rotting Ukrainian corpses are already stale, mate.”

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:30 utc | 73

Wagner goes rogue, invades Poland, takes out NATO bases. Withdraws back to Belarus. Russia has plausible deniability – it wasn’t our idea. It was that crazy Prighozhin – see how he tried the same thing in Rostov back in June?
Just sayin’
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 23 2023 19:55 utc | 63

Bedford Forest Style

Posted by: Exile | Jul 23 2023 20:30 utc | 74

On the Grain Deal, we should be suspicious of the fact that Russia’s “partners” have done everything to get Russia to back out of it short of fire missiles from the grain carriers. Borrell seemed positively energised at the fact that, in his mind, Russia could be held responsible for the failure of the deal.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 23 2023 20:20 utc | 69

Let’s be honest here. Borrell is long past his due date and missing a few brain cells.
Nevertheless, the reason why EU is happy is because once again they can create and sell a PR show of evil Russkies starving the world. But the fact is, the EU was the largest benefactor from free sea transport of grain from Ukraine, as it kept the costs low, and enabling to hoard it from under the nose of non-western states.
If I were Putin, I’d be busy guaranteeing to replace the lost grain to China (they did that), and also creating a new grain deal with Erdogan, not involving the West. And minimum allotments for non-western states.
The Ukrainian grain output has crashed due to a variety of reasons, so it isn’t a major factor in the grain market anymore, anyway.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 20:35 utc | 75

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 23 2023 19:55 utc | 63
Wagner goes rogue, invades Poland, takes out NATO bases. Withdraws back to Belarus. Russia has plausible deniability – it wasn’t our idea. It was that crazy Prighozhin – see how he tried the same thing in Rostov back in June?
Then NATO has cause to invade Belarus to specifically eliminate Wagner and also eliminate Lukashenko for harboring Prigozhin. That doesn’t seem like something Putin would want.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:36 utc | 76

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 19:34 utc | 59
Wagner goes rogue, invades Poland, takes out NATO bases. Withdraws back to Belarus. Russia has plausible deniability – it wasn’t our idea. It was that crazy Prighozhin – see how he tried the same thing in Rostov back in June?
Just sayin’
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 23 2023 19:55 utc | 63
Yep. That’s exactly the sort of thing I think should be happening to random American bases around the world.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 20:44 utc | 77

I always wonder about these high rate of fire weapons.
For how long can they do that?
How much ammo do they carry to do it?
How long can the barrel be used at that rate before it needs a cooldown rest?
And what’s the CEP or size of the ‘beaten zone’

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 20:47 utc | 78

anon2020 | Jul 23 2023 20:20 utc | 69
Even if the Ukrainians or Brits do use a dirty bomb or try and cause contamination by an attack on ZNPP, it will make no difference to the outcome now. If the US were going to go nuclear, they would have done so by now. It seems enough of the elite in the US now understand that if they get involved in a war with Russia and go nuclear, they will simply become skid marks in a very large sheet of glass.
Destruction of the Russian economy was a big part of the empires planning for this war against Russia. Although they had built the mother of all proxy armies in Ukraine as Will Schryver calls it the main part of Russia defeat was to be due to internal collapse. As Putin said and warned the Russian people of in the runup the SMO – “Russia can only be defeated by itself. No outside power can defeat Russia”.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 20:49 utc | 79

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 20:44 utc | 77
Yep. That’s exactly the sort of thing I think should be happening to random American bases around the world.
Why would you want to give NATO a reason to intervene directly?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:52 utc | 80

That doesn’t seem like something Putin would want.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:36 utc | 76
Maybe that is exactly what Putin wants. Perhaps its time to Up the stakes.
Wht wait for HATO to stage a false flag?
““Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. What can you say? Let them try,”
Vladimir Putin

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 20:59 utc | 81

arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 20:47 utc | 78 “For how long can they do that?”
Some are multibarrel gatling guns which gives the barrels a little time to cool. I believe some of them get up to 10,000 rounds per minute.
Others are revolver type with a single barrel and have a lower rate of fire.
Ammo supply depends a lot on the platform the gun is mounted on.
For firepower from twin multi barrels, look up some videos of the soviet point defence naval guns firing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 23 2023 21:03 utc | 82

“Then NATO has cause to invade Belarus…”
And have its ass nuked `til it glows.
Lukashenko doesn’t have a weak spot for liberals like Putin does. He doesn’t care about “burning bridges” to the West.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 23 2023 21:04 utc | 83

A German tank factory with air defences is a military base pretending to be something else.
Do the new NATO members understand that Germany intends to occupy them?

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jul 23 2023 21:11 utc | 84

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 23 2023 21:04 utc | 83
And have its ass nuked `til it glows.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 20:59 utc | 81
Maybe that is exactly what Putin wants. Perhaps its time to Up the stakes.
Wht wait for HATO to stage a false flag?
““Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. What can you say? Let them try,”
Vladimir Putin

I don’t think Putin wants world suicide through nuclear armageddon.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 21:14 utc | 85

Why would you want to give NATO a reason to intervene directly?
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:52 utc | 80

I don’t think that Russia is ever insane enough to do what #63 and #77 proposed, but at some point (much later), I Russia may feel the need to do something to force NATO to fall apart. I think it makes more sense (i.e., more upside, less downside risk, and higher probability of success) to use diplomacy to peel off some of the countries away from NATO. If that doesn’t work, though, I think it should be pretty clear by now that Putin was serious about removing the NATO threat once and for all.

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 23 2023 21:15 utc | 86

“As for your question, let me explain. The aggressor is not Russia, but the United States. And we repel this aggression. Everything that is necessary for this is done.”
But that was not actually the question. The question was: “Why is Russia forced to fight with Ukraine and cannot pose a threat directly to the United States itself, so that they, in turn, think about supplying further weapons?”
I ask that myself.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 23 2023 21:19 utc | 87

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 20:44 utc | 77
Yep. That’s exactly the sort of thing I think should be happening to random American bases around the world.
Why would you want to give NATO a reason to intervene directly?
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 20:52 utc | 80
perhaps you miss the point: deniability is the thing. should I spell it out more? the deniability could even be real. there are many groups in the world that would be happy to attack US bases. They need very little prompting. No direct connection at all in fact. I think it would probably even be enough if the very susceptibility of the 700 American bases of oppression were publicly announced.
And then lastly ‘give NATO a reason’ ? Since when has NATO needed a reason? AND what difference between what they do now and ‘directly’.
Reasons: they treat their people with the contempt they deserve, being docile inert deliberate ignorant morons. They manufacture ‘reasons’, ‘justifications’ when they feel like it and just don’t bother other times. Is that hyperbolic or just plain truth?
And ‘difference’ – ostensibly there’s a difference between going to war yourself and merely funding a war. But when you’ve funded a war to the extend of stripping yourself of all military capability and exposed your essential paucity of useful tools then there’s really no difference.
Which would be why NATO has at no time moved legions ostentatiously and provocatively to the borders of Russia, I would suppose.
Everything here is behind the scenes. Everything. No big dark mysterious secret. It was ever thus. Read, scan, a quick selection of writings about the doings of the last two World Wars. Gloss over the history of America’s recent invasions and destructions. View the US in Syria today.
It is ALL about ‘what’s it going to cost us?’ meaning not the nation but the monied powers controlling it. And the complicating factor, as always, as all through history, those ‘monied powers’ are transnational. They don’t mind nations fighting and can make profit from it even, very often do, but they always seek, of course, to minimise damage to themselves and that means making deals and adjustments continually with both sides, across the nations, across the line of combat.
Nothing much hurts America. Island nation. Laughing its socks off because Europe is dancing to its tune.
What can anyone do to hurt America? Especially when you keep in mind we mean the ‘monied powers’, we do NOT mean ‘America the 350 million people’. THEY are expendable. Mistreatable. Disposable. Manipulable. Of little real importance. So if you do things that make them suffer it won’t necessarily effect the actions of the ‘monied powers’ at all. Because you don’t hurt them.
So what would hurt them? Just the very idea of those 700 bases being vulnerable. For if they start closing down or hunkering down, shuttering up, as they quickly would on the least threat, then American prestige and perceived power diminishes drastically around the world and most particularly in that particular nations where that particular base is.
Which would be bad enough of itself, obviously but it would have another effect: it would set precedent and establish a modus operandi. It may become a fashion. It may become the new thing.
And once the US becomes a target and a laughing stock then treaties and debts and contracts and promises get torn up and thrown away and all American riches and properties all around the world become jeopardized. Suddenly they can’t make a reliable deal anywhere. Deals always in their favour before and secure because of the threat of American dominance now become fairer deals or perhaps even unfair to the US and not susceptible to American power for sustenance. More susceptible to the whims and vagaries of local power.
To my mind it is an obvious and if it is not happening then there’s no serious contention going on. Which means things are already sorted, decided, stitched up and the ‘monied powers’ are relaxing in the safe and certain knowledge of what the future will bring and how it will effect their riches.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 21:24 utc | 88

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 21:24 utc | 88
And then lastly ‘give NATO a reason’ ? Since when has NATO needed a reason?
So what would hurt them? Just the very idea of those 700 bases being vulnerable. For if they start closing down or hunkering down, shuttering up, as they quickly would on the least threat, then American prestige and perceived power diminishes drastically around the world and most particularly in that particular nations where that particular base is.
Which would be bad enough of itself, obviously but it would have another effect: it would set precedent and establish a modus operandi. It may become a fashion. It may become the new thing.

If NATO did not need a reason, it would’ve invaded already. Why give them a reason? Your idea of how bases would react to the “least threat” sounds delusional. The opposite would happen; NATO would mobilize, it could claim to be the victim, and everyone would rally together. You seem to think war is some kind of trend (“new thing”?)

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 21:29 utc | 89

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 23 2023 21:15 utc | 86
I don’t think that Russia is ever insane enough to do what #63 and #77 proposed, but at some point (much later), I Russia may feel the need to do something to force NATO to fall apart.
I agree with you there, but it’s disturbing how nuclear war talk seems to have grown more acceptable on this board.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 21:32 utc | 90

Golddigger | Jul 23 2023 20:15 utc | 66
Looking it up, perhaps this is actually the AK-630 (M1-2 variant)? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AK-630
As to the other poster’s question regarding how long this can be fired, a 4,000 round feed at 10,000 makes me think 24 seconds.
Some version in action: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Xjx7-NbE7M

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Jul 23 2023 21:39 utc | 91

Posted by: lex talionis | Jul 23 2023 17:33 utc | 36
lex, did you mean this one by Oz Katerji? https://archive.ph/XbKzc
Katerji is the lowest among the low when it comes to NAFO bro Bellingcrap suckling scum.

When the Labour MP and close ally of Corbyn, Chris Williamson, tweeted his support for the co-author of this report, Vanessa Beeley, the NATO-aligned twittersphere was outraged. Oz Katerji, long-time supporter of the Syrian “revolution” and vocal detractor of the Syrian government, rose to blow up the bridges in an article for the New Statesman.
Katerji has close ties to NATO-aligned “research” website Bellingcat, which has been instrumental in maintaining international pressure upon the Syrian government by supporting the chemical-weapon narratives generated by the White Helmets. Bellingcat’s founder, Eliot Higgins, is employed by the Atlantic Council, which is funded by the U.K., UAE, and U.S. weapons manufacturer Lockheed Martin, among others. Katerji is closely involved with the refugee “crisis,” on the “frontlines” as a team member of the Help Refugees NGO. The common factors that link all members of the war-for-peace-in-Syria cartel become more blatant as we delve deeper into their activities and connections.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/humanitarian-regime-change-jo-cox-uk-labour/250912/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 23 2023 21:46 utc | 92

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 21:29 utc | 89
Don’t know what planet you’re on, but it is a very naive claim that Nato would need a legitimate reason to attack Russia.
They can invent a “legitimate” reason at any point in time they want, and use full control of MSM to declare the need to attack Russia. They were on the verge of using the S-300 missile in Poland but decided at the last moment not to.
Reasons are irrelevant. The real issue of there haven’t been a “reason” so far is they are in worse state than ever to be attacking Russia than ever before, and is a pipe dream.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 23 2023 21:46 utc | 93

More on the NAFO chickenhawk loser Oz Katerji – He of the Foreign Policy counter-opinion on cluster munitions for the UkroNazis:
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/10/28/spooks-mercs-hawks-nafo-troll/
IOW, I wouldn’t bother actually reading anything that loser wrote in the archive.is link I provided above in response to lex.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 23 2023 21:52 utc | 94

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jul 23 2023 21:32 utc | 90
That absolutely excellent article linked by Teraspol | Jul 23 2023 19:23 utc | 58 implies that we are right now at a critical point. A NATO Black Sea naval battle may be about to start. The goal is of course Odessa.
if as is suggested NATO plans expansion via Romania and Bulgaria sea routes and of course actual ships, then it might be the trigger.
Russia has suggested that it will stop entry of ships to Odessa – probably by stop and search or perhaps by mines.
Now for the VERY first time Russia has hit Odessa seriously and now the UN World heritage people are starting the whinge. It is indeed serious stuff.
From practically day 1 I have been saying the SMO cannot end until Russia has control of Odessa. Initial attempts failed as well as setbacks like Moskva and losing Snake island. However it may actually have really started now, assuming that Russia has finally accepted that there will be damage to its own heritage.
A very sad reality of war.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 23 2023 21:52 utc | 95

Posted by: watcher | Jul 23 2023 21:52 utc | 95
Heritage gets destroyed and rebuilt, becoming part of the history of said heritage. There are very few heritage sites that have not been burned, destroyed, removed and then resurrected (if that pleases the victor) throughout Europe. Many have not because we all know that the winner writes the history. What we know today of history is what the winner, ideally 50%, wants us to know.
It is a sad corollary of being intelligent.

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 23 2023 21:58 utc | 96

“Spear and shield” developments in military technology and practice favor defense over offense (or vice versa) or large scale maneuvers over small scale actions (or vice versa). Introduction of better shields (castles, fortresses, trenches) and better spears (bows with longer range, guns, cannons, drones) change the balance continuously. Currently, with trench warfare and localized battles predominating, WWI lessons are important again. I found very interesting analogies in Wikipedia “Brusilov offensive”
“The largest and most lethal offensive of the war, the effects of the Brusilov offensive were far-reaching. It relieved German pressure on French forces at Verdun, and helped to relieve the Austro-Hungarian pressure on the Italians. It inflicted irreparable losses on the Austro-Hungarian Army, and induced Romania to finally enter the war on the side of the Entente. The human and material losses on the Russian side also greatly contributed to the onset of the Russian Revolution the following year.”
One could say that Summer 2024 repeats Summer 1916 on similar geographic scale, and in manpower terms, five times smaller (give it or take). Note importance of the global (pan-European) context that induced Russian Empire to engage is a successful but limited offensive at very large cost with ricocheting consequences, two main participating empires (Austrian, Russian) have fallen within roughly two years, Entente secured Italy and Romania within its ranks — but curiously, those two were on Teutonic side next time. Seems that Tsar should pay less attention to “global consequences” and more to domestic ones. Perhaps this is what Putin thinks.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 23 2023 21:59 utc | 97

@89
reason!
“behind every bellicose neocon in the pentagon is a logistician who says ‘you can’t go there”
don’t need reason, need stuff brought thousands of miles, if the stuff exists!

Posted by: paddy | Jul 23 2023 22:02 utc | 98

What can anyone do to hurt America?
Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 23 2023 21:24 utc | 88
Perhaps certain types of inactivity can hurt most. Why Yellen, Treasury Secretary, offered important concessions to PRC is they only purchased measly 750 billion USD worth of Treasury bonds? (or was it 850?)

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 23 2023 22:05 utc | 99

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 23 2023 21:58 utc | 96
I was quite surprised how a church build/rebuild after 1990 got into Unesco list, but, in any case, this is not a location of priceless antiquities.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 23 2023 22:10 utc | 100