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July 17, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-171
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Comments
Posted by: Incel | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:09 utc | 101 The site of the attack is the eastern section of the bridge, between Tuzla Island and Russian mainland. I believe this is pre-2022 sovereign Russian territory.
Let’s calculate that section of the Kerch Bridge unequivocally erected in RF territorial sea. Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 17 2023 22:19 utc | 102 Question to barflies et al: How far do we get into the dry months (in Ukraine) before it becomes a bad idea to launch a major Russian offensive? In other words, when does the “muddy season” usually begin and how much time should be reasonably allotted for a major mechanized Russian assault that requires dry land for success? Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:05 utc Posted by: andy | Jul 17 2023 22:43 utc | 104 Sorry if I’ve missed it, but Putin said civilians were killed and I can’t find how many. Does anyone know how many lost their lives on the bridge? Posted by: granite | Jul 17 2023 22:45 utc | 105 when does the “muddy season” usually begin Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 17 2023 22:45 utc | 106 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGoNNbnQmjg Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 17 2023 22:49 utc | 107 The nets could be supported by rods attached to the bridge structure itself. Posted by: Fern | Jul 17 2023 22:53 utc | 108 Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103 Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 22:56 utc | 109 “Ukies are waiting for the retaliation. It should be delayed for a week and launched when they least expect it.” Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 17 2023 23:01 utc | 110 Been following, for fun, North of Southampton, Apaches and some other helis practicing clearing the area in a triangle. NATO’s tactics from early 80’s at work. Interesting. European NATO planners, probably, never heard of ‘fire force’, invented by Rhodesians, to be very effective, instead old crappy tactics from the movies. If they teach this to Ukrainians, it makes them real bastards, knowing that it doesn’t work. Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 23:02 utc | 111 Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103 Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:04 utc | 112 Apollyon @ 2023
I heard Medvedev is hiring for a personal assistant. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 17 2023 23:07 utc | 113 Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103 Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:08 utc | 114 “The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2 ” Posted by: kupkee | Jul 17 2023 23:09 utc | 115 “Resources are always better geared towards mobile and ranged weapons.” Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:11 utc | 116 This is the best available data on Ukraine’s population structure: Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 17 2023 23:12 utc | 117 Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 23:02 utc | 111 The nets could be supported by rods attached to the bridge structure itself. Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:26 utc | 119 Does Russia have to change its approach? Maybe, but not necessarily. Many people in the west want it to, and a loud minority in Russia agree. But none of us are making the risk-benefit calculation with all the information in hand. Posted by: Lex | Jul 17 2023 23:38 utc | 120 Why do western media persist in calling it “Russian occupied Crimea” Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122 There is a chance Russia has a surprise that bypasses ISR. I can think of a couple theoretical ones, involving drones. Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:53 utc | 123 @ Catilina | Jul 17 2023 23:41 utc | 121 Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 23:56 utc | 124 The Gulf of Finland was 1943 closed with a double net and assorted minefields. Operation Walrus. Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:58 utc | 125 @ UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:53 utc | 123 Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 23:58 utc | 126 @ Phalanges | Jul 17 2023 23:12 utc | 118 Posted by: whirlX | Jul 18 2023 0:04 utc | 127 “…a “10 – 1 kill ratio” sounds a lot like the Americans did when trying to hide their impotence in Vietnam.” UWDude@123 Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 0:17 utc | 128 very important slip- keep this info coming- this is crucial information for all of us Posted by: farm ecologist | Jul 18 2023 0:23 utc | 130 @112 echo chamber Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131 …and lost a mere 60,000. Posted by: Nobody | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 132 Who cares if Russia put nets or rubber ducks in the straight? But why come down on someone here at the bar because you don’t like their idea? Just move on and put out your own ideas. Everybody’s just throwing some things against the wall. I am sure no one at the MOD in Russia is taking applications from here anyways. Posted by: Dferg | Jul 18 2023 0:38 utc | 133 do you have any reference to that?? nothing comes up on a search.. here is the wiki page for gulf of finland and it says nothing there either… Gulf of Finland
This was also mentioned in the great Soviet Steamroller TV series, IIRC. I definitely saw it mentioned on some TV series. Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134 In response to Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2023 0:41 utc | 135 @ john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134 Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 0:44 utc | 136 The series is Soviet Storm, not Soviet Steamroller. The latter title was an episode from “WW2 in Color”.
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:47 utc | 137 @ john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134 Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:51 utc | 138 Eighthman | Jul 17 2023 20:27 utc | 84 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 0:55 utc | 139 I really think Russia is bogged down, and not nearly as strong as most here believe. The wanderwaffen do have an impact on the battlefield, the MoD over-reports casualties, and nobody here really looks to see what Russian casualties are really like. Posted by: James M. | Jul 18 2023 0:59 utc | 140 Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131 Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 18 2023 1:01 utc | 141 Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 0:17 utc | 128 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 1:06 utc | 142 HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 1:10 utc | 143 Some videos for today. Posted by: Nate | Jul 18 2023 1:12 utc | 144 Who cares if Russia put nets or rubber ducks in the straight? But why come down on someone here at the bar because you don’t like their idea? Just move on and put out your own ideas. Everybody’s just throwing some things against the wall. Posted by: UWDude | Jul 18 2023 1:15 utc | 145 @141 echo chamber Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 1:28 utc | 146 richard steven hacks link to todays substack post… informative as always.. Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:28 utc | 147 “I’m a WW2 junkie and always glad to help with obscure factoids.” Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 1:35 utc | 148 https://news.antiwar.com/2023/07/16/pentagon-intelligence-official-says-ukraine-war-at-a-stalemate/ Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 1:43 utc | 149 @ Nate | Jul 18 2023 1:12 utc | 144 Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:48 utc | 150 @ Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 1:43 utc | 149 Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:49 utc | 151 I see b purged Putin’s black humor I posted last night, but that’s okay as it’s included in my final take on Vilnius and the proclamations that emanated from what seem like a bunch of drunkards unable to think straight, and I don’t think Melaleuca has read it yet, “NATO DUI: Too Much NATO Kool-Aid”. I must thank S for providing the article about EU gas consumption as it fit in well with the prose. I must recommend the short essay Crooke links to at the end of his piece, “Why the Idea of Western Civilization is More Myth Than History”, which he includes because it forms the foundation for the Establishment Narrative: Criminals destroy evidence to hide crimes, opportunistically loot & extort while there is chaos, and break those weaker than them to relieve frustration. Ukraine fulfills these roles here. Further it has a chance to kill any Russians, break their stuff, waste their resources, and make them feel sad as they kill people deeply related to them. The returns are too great to pass up for the truly evil. Posted by: titmouse | Jul 18 2023 2:12 utc | 153 “…The US Military spent more than a decade in Vietnam (under one guise or another)..” Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 2:31 utc | 154 Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 18 2023 1:57 utc | 152 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:37 utc | 155 Bloomberg reports that EU gas run out of ammo to send to Ukraine. Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:38 utc | 156 Günther Prien (which is the correct spelling of his name) did mention scraping an anchor cable when trying to slip around the U-Boot nets. Protective nets are currently in place in Norfolk VA to protect every USN dock, including the Portsmouth shipyard. The USN does not need to worry about commercial traffic and last time I was shoed away by the US Navy Patrol there my depth sounder reported fifty odd feet. Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 18 2023 2:44 utc | 157 Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 18 2023 2:44 utc | 157
Not until they step up to claim their reward publicly … Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:48 utc | 158
Now this is a bit (understatement) ridiculous. No mental neither verbal acrobacy can wipe away the significance of Antiquity as it is generally (and correctly) perceived. Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 17 2023 19:07 utc | 51 Posted by: odd | Jul 18 2023 2:55 utc | 160 The EU and it’s chief war mongerer Borell are beginng to realize the war against Russia is lost: Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:59 utc | 161 134: “The submarine net was 30 miles long, 60 to 90 metres high. It was made from 18 mm steel wire with 4 x 4 m mesh. The netlaying operation began on 28.3.1943 and it was finished on 15.5. The old Russian net on the Finnish coast was replaced 10.6. Because of the net all submarine hunting forces could be concentrated between Porkkala and Suursaari.” Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131 Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 3:03 utc | 163 Posted by: odd | Jul 18 2023 2:55 utc | 160 Remember that epic rant by a Russian soldier that was all over Telegram a few days ago? He’s now been interviewed by Russian television talking about the war from a frontline perspective. Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:07 utc | 165 It occurs to me that perhaps Putin told Erodogan some time back that Russia was going to end grain deal participation and Erdo responded by releasing Azov and ok-ing Sweden NATO bid. Turkey was making $$ on the grain transit (I wonder how much) and is eager for it to continue. Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 18 2023 3:08 utc | 166 Some weeks ago I read a comment somewhere, maybe Moon Of Alabama, that made total sense to me. Whoever it was raised the question of why NATO imagined Ukranazistan could beat Russia, and answered it this way: NATO built up a Ukranazistani army that it itself believed that it could not beat without using nuclear weapons. Since NATO thought Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 167 @Tom Q Collins 100 Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:10 utc | 168 Posted by: Catilina | Jul 18 2023 2:53 utc | 159 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 3:13 utc | 169 Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 166 Apart from the hysteria, this latest Kerch bridge strike was a significantly weaker attack than the last one, despite the weapons being far more sophisticated. Diminishing bang for the buck, one might say, especially since Putin was, according to Erdoğan, waffling about cancelling the grain deal but after this attack cancelled it. Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:55 utc | 171 More lancet upgrades: Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 3:57 utc | 172 Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 166 Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 4:02 utc | 173 In response to Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2023 4:05 utc | 174 When you don’t have profit driving the bus, amazing things can happen and China is another example Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 4:09 utc | 175 Dumb move to attack the Kerch bridge in such an ineffective manner. There is no impact on supplies to the front and now the Russians are aware of the vulnerability of the bridge to underwater attack. Posted by: Poul | Jul 18 2023 5:26 utc | 176 Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:38 utc | 156 Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 6:29 utc | 177 Btw, the RU offensive in Kupyansk-Lyman seems quite successful. We also have talk about Kharkov area. It won’t allow AFU to regroup or take a breather after breaking their teeth in Zaporozhye and will just increase stress everywhere. Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 6:33 utc | 178 Dumb move to attack the Kerch bridge in such an ineffective manner. Posted by: rk | Jul 18 2023 6:42 utc | 179 Russia isn’t weak; it’s military is the equal (now better) than USNATO; and it is producing new weapons, and innovating at a rate truly unimaginable to the West. 172 Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 18 2023 7:57 utc | 180 @Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:08 utc | 114
Nothing is forever, but the drones have changed things for now. There are a couple of very informative videos on that subject linked from Simplicius’ latest piece: Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:11 utc | 181 @HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122 Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:15 utc | 182 @Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:37 utc | 155
And the Middle Eastern civilization is a reboot of what existed thousands of years before (before the Younger Dryas), as evidenced by high-tech remains in Egypt (e.g. Serapeum of Saqqara) as well as in other parts of the world (Peru/Bolivia, Cambodia and more). We are today closer in time to the Egyptian Pharaos than the Egyptian Pharaos were to those who actually built the pyramids. Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 184 @rk | Jul 18 2023 6:42 utc | 178
Sure… when the Poles and Lithuanians move in… the Suwalki gap becomes history. Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:47 utc | 185 Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183 Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2023 8:52 utc | 186 4. The Bidet regime thinks of Ukranazistan as a disposable tool to use to chip away at Russia and when broken to be thrown away. Posted by: Martina | Jul 18 2023 9:15 utc | 187 I’m waiting for the first conclusions of the Collective Wasters malinformation PR operatives to claim that Russia has yet again attacked itself as another false flag and this time within its own borders. Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 18 2023 9:31 utc | 188 … It’s pretty much the equivalent of Hitler firing V1s at Britain while the Reich was falling. Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 18 2023 9:45 utc | 189 Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 9:48 utc | 190 The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation about the strikes on Odessa and Mykolaiv. Posted by: Shmes | Jul 18 2023 9:49 utc | 191 Dima made a review on the Crimea bridge strike and the relevant effects. Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 10:13 utc | 192 Hi, just a longtime lurker. Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2023 11:06 utc | 193 152, 155 Sorry but the Greeks did give us Western Civilization. Cargo ships sail under the bridge drop off their wee boaty things, then from the Azov Sea they attack from the rear. Most countries at war will stop and search sea traffic, the Russians, not so much. Weird how they discover the boat making factory and a rather large, surely it wasn’t hidden, fuel depot that they’d somehow missed over the past year, and it was right under their nose in the Odessa region. Just wondering if Russia has hockey coaches running the SloMo. Lots of skating but very little traction and a traffic jamn on the only supply highway in the Southern war theatre……dogs bark, the SloMo moves on. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 18 2023 11:17 utc | 195 In response to anon2020@188, Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 18 2023 11:24 utc | 196 Posted by: canuck | Jul 18 2023 11:12 utc | 193 Posted by: sal | Jul 18 2023 11:32 utc | 197 Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183 Posted by: sal | Jul 18 2023 11:41 utc | 198 Ah, it seems like there’s a sneaky little plot to give history a makeover by tweaking the Western narrative, huh? Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 18 2023 12:00 utc | 199 -> Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17 Posted by: Stierlitz | Jul 18 2023 12:07 utc | 200 |
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