Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 17, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-171

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Posted by: Incel | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33
WTF. Jayzuz H Keericed – Sorry this even came up, but no Catholic chicks I’ve ever met had hairy legs, and there’s nothing wrong with a nice well-kempt bush. Again, sorry if this offended anyone.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:09 utc | 101

The site of the attack is the eastern section of the bridge, between Tuzla Island and Russian mainland. I believe this is pre-2022 sovereign Russian territory.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 17 2023 16:48 utc | 1
I must agree. Anyway one measures it, he damaged section is well within Russia’s territorial sea. Walk with me toward UNCLOS.
Kerch Strait 3.1 km (1.9 mi, 5.7412 NM) – 15 km (9.3 mi, 27.78 NM) wide, 45 km long

at its narrowest point at the northern end of Chushka

wikiwtfTuzla” landspit, only about 3–5 km wide. Administratively, it belongs to Temryuksky District, Krasnodar Krai, Russia.

Kerch-Yenikalsky canal, which was first built in 1877 and used to be operated by Ukraine, is the only waterway through Kerch Strait that is navigable by large ships. Smaller vessels can use the Russian fairway passages #50 and #52 situated east of the canal.

wikiwtf confirms:

Tuzla Spit [“Chushka landspit”] is now Tuzla Island [“Chushka island”], connected to the Taman Peninsula by a 2003 Russian-built 3.8 km (2.4 mi) wide dam

Let’s calculate that section of the Kerch Bridge unequivocally erected in RF territorial sea.
Nautical Mile (nm): mi, 1: 1.15078; nm:km, 1:1.852
UNCLOS baseline territorial sea is 12 nm (13.8094 mi, or 22.224 km).
The min-max width of the Kerch Bridge section between the spit and mainland damaged by UAF is between 5.55 nm – 9.26 nm. Chushka/Tuzla Spit is territory of the RF. Now, let us return to b’s UNCLOS citation, Art. 38 in particular, PART II and PART III, meanings of Territorial and Strait, respectively.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 17 2023 22:19 utc | 102

Question to barflies et al: How far do we get into the dry months (in Ukraine) before it becomes a bad idea to launch a major Russian offensive? In other words, when does the “muddy season” usually begin and how much time should be reasonably allotted for a major mechanized Russian assault that requires dry land for success?
I ask this because the muddy season was universally pointed to as the reason why Russia previously could not launch a major offensive (“the ground never froze hard enough last winter”). If Russia actually intends to launch such an offensive (now that they have destroyed several Ukrainian armies and eliminated most Ukrainian air defense systems), is there some approximate cutoff date after which such an offensive becomes likely to wind up getting bogged down because of bad weather?
Wouldn’t waiting until next year to launch such an offensive be a rather bad idea?

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:05 utc
2 adults killed and their daughter (teenager I think) injured.

Posted by: andy | Jul 17 2023 22:43 utc | 104

Sorry if I’ve missed it, but Putin said civilians were killed and I can’t find how many. Does anyone know how many lost their lives on the bridge?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:05 utc | 100
For what it is worth, thisis from Reuters:
A Russian couple were killed and their 14-year-old daughter was wounded on Monday in what Moscow said was a Ukrainian attack as they drove across the Crimean Bridge at night for what they hoped would be a family holiday on Crimea’s Black Sea coast.

Posted by: granite | Jul 17 2023 22:45 utc | 105

when does the “muddy season” usually begin
Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103
I suppose, “climate change” has disrupted “seasonal” expectations pretty much everywhere. It’s warm and wetter, and with Military Summary remarks in mind I can recall at least three instances April – June of unexpected showers in Zaporizh* and Donetsk regions that have interrupted heavy artillery advances on, ahem, the plains, Mr Higgins! And, of course, Prigozhin complained mightily about water-logged, oligarch-orphaned contract infantry recovered up in Bakhmut. You may also recall, during traditional “winter” Dec – Feb 2022/2023, int’l. legionaires also complained to YT spectators about muddy conditions—cold but not freezing point. Plan for this “winter” in Ukraine to deliver more of same.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 17 2023 22:45 utc | 106

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGoNNbnQmjg
new atlas, apologies if somebody already linked it

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 17 2023 22:49 utc | 107

The nets could be supported by rods attached to the bridge structure itself.
Protect the pillars, nobody attacks the clear span. How many pillars are there?
This would bring additional advantages: the waste (algae, ice, etc.) would not cause serious problems and boat traffic would not suffer any noticeable interference. It might work. There would be no direct impact.

Posted by: Fern | Jul 17 2023 22:53 utc | 108

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103
I’ve honestly no idea but I doubt that these are the main issues nowadays. The weapons have changed dramatically in 70 years. Any attack would have to be very big and an acceptance of heavy losses before you start for it to stand any chance of success. Those forest lines are a complete nightmare.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 22:56 utc | 109

“Ukies are waiting for the retaliation. It should be delayed for a week and launched when they least expect it.”
And that’s the wrong way. Retaliation must come immediately. And it has to be so massive, that it totally overshadows the cause of the retaliaton. The rule must be: You damage our bridge, we’ll reduce your capital to rubble. And everybody involved in the bridge bombing must end up in the morgue.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 17 2023
21:26 utc | 92
As the Klingons quoted by Khan say, “revenge is a dish best served cold. It’s very cold in space.”

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 17 2023 23:01 utc | 110

Been following, for fun, North of Southampton, Apaches and some other helis practicing clearing the area in a triangle. NATO’s tactics from early 80’s at work. Interesting. European NATO planners, probably, never heard of ‘fire force’, invented by Rhodesians, to be very effective, instead old crappy tactics from the movies. If they teach this to Ukrainians, it makes them real bastards, knowing that it doesn’t work.
Eerie, calm skies otherwise, with lots of stars. Time for Skymaster.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 23:02 utc | 111

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103
We were told bakhmut was so strategic that when it fell it would open up the whole Donbass. Walking to Serversk would be easy.
Modern day weaponry makes nothing a walk in the park. Those fields are treacherous no matter the weather. Hence, why there have been no big arrow moves in the summer. Which are probably now a thing of the past.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:04 utc | 112

Apollyon @ 2023

You damage our bridge, we’ll reduce your capital to rubble. And everybody involved in the bridge bombing must end up in the morgue.

I heard Medvedev is hiring for a personal assistant.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 17 2023 23:07 utc | 113

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 17 2023 22:26 utc | 103
Watching this battle would you actually believe Russia has air supremacy ?
Drones have changed the face of warfare forever.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:08 utc | 114

“The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2 ”
The Brits did have lots of problems, all over the world keeping ships afloat, both navy and commercial.
And the Germans even managed to bypass the nets at Scapa Flow.
I suspect Russia will exact another heavy price for this NATO/Brit/Uke terrorism on civilians.

Posted by: kupkee | Jul 17 2023 23:09 utc | 115

“Resources are always better geared towards mobile and ranged weapons.”
You don’t want Russia to use those with any agency or initiative either.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 20:44 utc | 88
Lie.
“In 1917 the US Navy Department seriously proposed sealing off the North Sea with the “Northern Barrage”
Yes, so seriously, no nets were ever laid, just minefields. There was never any serious discussion of running a net 230 miles across the Northern Sea, you are out of your mind.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:11 utc | 116

This is the best available data on Ukraine’s population structure:
https://www.indexmundi.com/population-pyramid/ukraine
The normal population pyramid has evolved into a population mushroom. A blunt pyramid is balanced precariously on a slender column.
I would expect that the population structure of Ukraine has evolved significantly during the few years since this data was collected.
People have been fleeing the country to escape not only the war but being conscripted. I would bet most of the men between 18 and 40 have either fled or been killed. It is debatable if Ukrainian women of similar age have stayed behind.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 17 2023 23:12 utc | 117

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 23:02 utc | 111
I’m living just South of Salisbury Plain. The artillery practice has dropped off significantly since Spring, and has only recently recommenced. Same with small arms practice. I’m seeing daily chopper flights heading Southwest towards Bovington area, and Chinooks coming back. Not as much activity as last year though.

Posted by: Phalanges | Jul 17 2023 23:12 utc | 118

The nets could be supported by rods attached to the bridge structure itself.
Protect the pillars, nobody attacks the clear span. How many pillars are there?
Posted by: Fern | Jul 17 2023 22:53 utc | 108
I thought of this too. It would take even more netting than one long net, (there are over 7000 piles) but probably be less susceptible to major disaster in a storm. However, what you claim would be an advantage could be a big disadvantage, in that the more junk they collected, the more stress they would put on themselves and the rods, and possibly even the pile they are extending from.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:26 utc | 119

Does Russia have to change its approach? Maybe, but not necessarily. Many people in the west want it to, and a loud minority in Russia agree. But none of us are making the risk-benefit calculation with all the information in hand.
Consider that Ukraine desperately needed a great victory in the south and got nothing (at least not yet). And many things in Ukraine are getting desperate. The tales of an inexhaustible supply of men are false, there’s no such thing nor can you send every able bodied man to the front. Nobody has ever been able to do that. The money and goods to support both the VSU and the Ukrainian state are running out. Things aren’t good in Ukraine.
A massive advance isn’t going to work because those are (probably) a thing of the past. Russia had one chance in the spring of 22 and almost pulled it off. Unless all the ISR disappears and the drones are all gone, concentrating enough troops for a WWII style maneuver advance probably isn’t going to happen. So aside from a massive terror bombing campaign, Russia’s options are mostly limited to putting pressure on Ukraine all along the front, attriting its supply and staging areas and maintaining pressure until the VSU cracks. A massive escalation in Ukraine raises the possibility that Biden will get spooked and do something stupid like send US forces into Ukraine. Then what?
What Russia still lacks is enough manpower. That’s a political decision and it’s not going to change without a significant escalation. The vocal minority in Russia Calli g for it is still a minority. So Russia has one “good” plan of the constant pressure. The upside Putin may see is that the best outcome would be the Ukrainian people kicking Zelensky out. That would be the best political endgame for Russia. So it seems that it’s the chosen strategy.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 17 2023 23:38 utc | 120

The Gulf of Finland was 1943 closed with a double net and assorted minefields. Operation Walrus.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 17 2023 23:41 utc | 121

Why do western media persist in calling it “Russian occupied Crimea”
“Surely, the people of Crimea voted in a referendum in 2014 to leave Ukraine”, I say.
“That was a sham referendum”, the west says.
“But they held a referendum, and 97% voted to leave Ukraine”, I say. “When was the referendum held to overthrow Yanakovich? ”
That was a revolution of dignity”, the West says.
“So, no vote at all, then”, I say. “Just a violent overthrow without the support of the people of Ukraine”. “There was a consensus among the people for change”, says the West. “Hence, the violence to get rid of Yanakovych was justified”.
“Oh, so I take it you then support the consensus of the people of Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk”, I say. “Their actions, in taking control of their own futures, are just as “justified” as the actions you supported in kiev in 2014. You can’t have it both ways. You either support popular action or you don’t”.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122

There is a chance Russia has a surprise that bypasses ISR. I can think of a couple theoretical ones, involving drones.
Some are of drones not made yet, to my knowledge, but I think small de-mining drones could be a game changer. Unlike a demining tank, these drones could get blown up, but not the demining process.
Another I had thought Iran would eventually open with, is a million cruise missile/ drone barrage. Overwhelming all AD, huge morale blow. But could Russia find a million targets to even hit?
I really think Russia is bogged down, and not nearly as strong as most here believe. The wanderwaffen do have an impact on the battlefield, the MoD over-reports casualties, and nobody here really looks to see what Russian casualties are really like.
Maybe it is my Vietnam reflex, but a “10 – 1 kill ratio” sounds a lot like the Americans did when trying to hide their impotence in Vietnam.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:53 utc | 123

@ Catilina | Jul 17 2023 23:41 utc | 121
do you have any reference to that?? nothing comes up on a search.. here is the wiki page for gulf of finland and it says nothing there either… Gulf of Finland

Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 23:56 utc | 124

The Gulf of Finland was 1943 closed with a double net and assorted minefields. Operation Walrus.
Posted by: Catilina | Jul 17 2023 23:41 utc | 121
Never heard of it, got a link?

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:58 utc | 125

@ UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:53 utc | 123
quote ” nobody here really looks to see what Russian casualties are really like.”
impressive how you came so quickly to this conclusion! how did you do that??

Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 23:58 utc | 126

@ Phalanges | Jul 17 2023 23:12 utc | 118
Thanks for your answer.
Been following those for a awhile, they do change places and intensity. Silly active for last 6 month, along RAF bases in NE UK, one might say.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 18 2023 0:04 utc | 127

“…a “10 – 1 kill ratio” sounds a lot like the Americans did when trying to hide their impotence in Vietnam.” UWDude@123
The impotence was all political- the kill ratio is a wild underestimate. The US killed at least a million Vietnamese and lost a mere 60,000.
Bear in mind that the Ukraine: Russia calculation is based on military casualties. The Ukraine is well ahead in the business of emulating the US and massacring civilians- it, backed by NATO, has killed at least 20,000 of them (two more yesterday whose deaths gave rise to wild celebration among Ukraine’s rulers) while Russia seems to have kept the co-lateral casualties down.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 0:17 utc | 128

Time for more ‘bent propellers’

Posted by: T S | Jul 18 2023 0:20 utc | 129

very important slip- keep this info coming- this is crucial information for all of us
Thanks
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jul 17 2023 20:43 utc | 87
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/an-injunction-preserves-the-first-amendment-on-social-media-for-now/
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/07/14/us-disinformation-industry-lands-in-court/

Posted by: farm ecologist | Jul 18 2023 0:23 utc | 130

@112 echo chamber
Nothing is forever. Thus period of defence ascendancy will cycle away. Bright minds are hard at work solving these conditions.
Indeed, it’s robotic soldiers. First side to marry combat ai with an appropriate kinetic dispensing form, and fields them in large numbers, is probably the key to accurate long distance infantry portable rockets and mines.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131

…and lost a mere 60,000.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 0:17 utc | 128

Not counting those who died in the isolation of their homes. War is an abnormal condition, even for soldiers. Only psychos do not mind.

Posted by: Nobody | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 132

Who cares if Russia put nets or rubber ducks in the straight? But why come down on someone here at the bar because you don’t like their idea? Just move on and put out your own ideas. Everybody’s just throwing some things against the wall. I am sure no one at the MOD in Russia is taking applications from here anyways.

Posted by: Dferg | Jul 18 2023 0:38 utc | 133

do you have any reference to that?? nothing comes up on a search.. here is the wiki page for gulf of finland and it says nothing there either… Gulf of Finland
Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 23:56 utc | 124
————-

Not a single Soviet submarine managed to break through this obstacle and so shipping in Baltic Sea was relatively safe.
mines
The submarine net was 30 miles long, 60 to 90 metres high. It was made from 18 mm steel wire with 4 x 4 m mesh. The netlaying operation began on 28.3.1943 and it was finished on 15.5. The old Russian net on the Finnish coast was replaced 10.6. Because of the net all submarine hunting forces could be concentrated between Porkkala and Suursaari.

Anti-submarine net across Gulf of Finland 1943

This was also mentioned in the great Soviet Steamroller TV series, IIRC. I definitely saw it mentioned on some TV series.

Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134

In response to

Who cares if Russia put nets or rubber ducks in the straight? But why come down on someone here at the bar because you don’t like their idea? Just move on and put out your own ideas. Everybody’s just throwing some things against the wall. I am sure no one at the MOD in Russia is taking applications from here anyways.
Posted by: Dferg | Jul 18 2023 0:38 utc | 133

Thanks! Barkeep, please pour this person their liquid desire

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2023 0:41 utc | 135

@ john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134
thanks john.. i was looking for ‘operation walrus’ and found nothing.. this link appears to be from a finnish university..

Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 0:44 utc | 136

The series is Soviet Storm, not Soviet Steamroller. The latter title was an episode from “WW2 in Color”.

Soviet Storm: World War II in the East (Russian title: Советский Шторм: Вторая мировая война на Востоке; original Russian title — Великая война, English: The Great War) is a 2011 17-episode Russian television World War II series created by Anna Grazhdan, Artem Drabkin, and Aleksey Isaev.[2] An online version includes 18 episodes, ordered chronologically.
Soviet Storm TV series

Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:47 utc | 137

@ john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:39 utc | 134
thanks john..
———-
You’re welcome. I’m a WW2 junkie and always glad to help with obscure factoids.

Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:51 utc | 138

Eighthman | Jul 17 2023 20:27 utc | 84
Links to the Ukrainian population pyramid have been posted multiple times over the sloSMO.
However, I always find it fascinating. So, post it again.. why not, most posts here now are repetitive. In fact, people repost the same content and links multiple times within a single thread…. [hmm, can feel a rant rising…best move along and back to the population pyramid]
“To the Last Ukrainian”.
Today, Babuskas, aged from 60-75 are the largest cohort.
Females aged 20 qualify for “endangered species” categorisation.
And babies?
Ukrainians born today will be making Ukrainians in 20 years.
The Last Ukrainian… isn’t a meme.
There’s been a lot of conjecture about the numbers who’ve left Ukrainian.
Looking at the population pyramid, I see a looming mass die-off of old women.
That cohort are pensioners, and increasingly require medical and lifestyle support. A great majority live in the villages and rural areas.
With the extended family network fractured, and pensions and affordable available medical care diminished, Babuskas are greatly at risk of dying from neglect and poverty.
The loss of the male population to soldiering will be noted when the time comes to document the demise of Ukraine. The disappearance of the large geriatric female population will likely be overlooked.
Post war, the Ukrainian population will be well below 20 million. IMVHO.
Does it matter if millions of “useless eater” little old ladies in Ukraine die off?
Yes.
Babuskas, nannas, nonny, grandma… she is often the spine of a family and a community. No one gives their spine a thought until they have crippling back problems.
Babuskas are the custodians of culture, of recipes, of oral history, of community potluck cooking. They hold child-raising wisdom and remedies to ailments.
A Babuska’s hug has magical powers to cure.
I think Ukraine will be destroyed by its loss of Babuskas every bit as much as the catastrophic destruction of its military men.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 0:55 utc | 139

I really think Russia is bogged down, and not nearly as strong as most here believe. The wanderwaffen do have an impact on the battlefield, the MoD over-reports casualties, and nobody here really looks to see what Russian casualties are really like.
Maybe it is my Vietnam reflex, but a “10 – 1 kill ratio” sounds a lot like the Americans did when trying to hide their impotence in Vietnam.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 23:53 utc | 123
Different metrics between fighting an insurgency and a standing army. The kill ratios don’t matter as much when fighting an insurgency since those killed are more easily replaced.
The MoD probably overreports casualties, but not by a significant amount, I think. It is clear the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being worn down. The only thing keeping them in the war are those “wunderwaffen,” and those aren’t going to last forever.
Russia will win, it’s not a question of if but when, and how much of Ukraine they will take before the West says uncle.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 18 2023 0:59 utc | 140

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131
The Ukrainians are saying that Russia has collected a force of More than 100,000 soldiers, more than 900 tanks and 370 MLRS in the Limano-Kupyansk direction.
https://t.me/remylind21/5261
That’s big and what you will probably need for an offensive. Doesn’t mean there will be one but that’s how big it needs to be and expect heavy losses before the get go.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 18 2023 1:01 utc | 141

Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 0:17 utc | 128
The impotence was all political- the kill ratio is a wild underestimate. The US killed at least a million Vietnamese and lost a mere 60,000.
The estimates range much higher – mostly civilians. See for a start, Neil Sheehan’s “A Bright Shining Lie”.
As for impotence, it was clearly the U.S military’s. The politicians were merely incompetent:
The US Military spent more than a decade in Vietnam (under one guise or another), threw some of the worst weapons ever invented in some of the highest volumes ever dumped on a country against some of the most under-armed and poorest opponents ever yet failed to achieve any military, strategic or political or moral objective.
That is truly impotence.
The politicians just recognised (pretty late) that the US military was dysfunctional and incapable of doing the job even given the immense advantages accorded to them relative to the Vietnamese side.
The ultimate expression of this “military impotence” played out in My Lai, and the other ‘My Lais’ with U.S soldiers at the lowest ranks taking out their frustrations on women, children, the old and the unarmed.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 1:06 utc | 142

HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122
A cry for consistency: You can’t have it both way
Neocrims: Lol. Yes we can. And we do. *Rules-Based, International Order*.
The “rules”:are based on what is expedient for us at any moment, and we order everyone around, internationally.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 1:10 utc | 143

Some videos for today.
Mother, father killed, child injured in Kiev regime terrorist attack on Crimean Bridge:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/bridgesk:5
Deck of the Crimean Bridge damaged, but pylons intact:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/bridge17:7
Russia’s Akhmat Battalion holds off nighttime Kiev regime attacks:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Murad-1706:3
Russian TOS-1A destroys Kiev regime stronghold and ammunition depot near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/cec2e9dadaa713e3fbc3746b1612e249/
Russian Ka-52 destroys enemy armored vehicle:
https://rutube.ru/video/7c9e30c643e5b083dda23ebb12dd9291/
Kiev regime military suffers large losses during failed attack on the DPR’s Staromayorsk:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/gzn_3fdg:7
Russian Grad launcher pounds the enemy near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/f528021607e9fb4c29f8c1d81ac293d2/

Posted by: Nate | Jul 18 2023 1:12 utc | 144

Who cares if Russia put nets or rubber ducks in the straight? But why come down on someone here at the bar because you don’t like their idea? Just move on and put out your own ideas. Everybody’s just throwing some things against the wall.
Posted by: Dferg | Jul 18 2023 0:38 utc | 133
I care.
Because they are claiming it is a sign of Russian incompetence based on their beliefs about how “easy” it would be.
Lots of people here seem to think war is easy, and that all Russia has to do is this or that, and they could win, so why aren’t they. It has to be brought to these simpletons minds that war is not a video game.
Many other then take their own arrogant-ignorance, as proof that there are traitors in the Kremlin, because the generals in Moscow are not doing the so called “easy things” some arrogant book-nerd thinks they should be doing.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 18 2023 1:15 utc | 145

@141 echo chamber
There’s a scene from Futurama zap Brannigan brags about defeating the killbots. He sent wave after wave of men until the killbots reached their kill limit and turned off.
So, analogously, that’s an option as well, there’s a limit on how fast an army can resupply through logistics, doubly so since large caches are easily found and bombed.
So far russia has refrained from the killbot strategy. My estimation is that there’s some confusion about russian troop levels. I believe those include the previous troops defending there, the Ukrainian estimate is an extra 60000 troops. Still a lot but not killbot levels.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 1:28 utc | 146

richard steven hacks link to todays substack post… informative as always..
Another Less-Than-Short Ukrainian Interlude…

Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:28 utc | 147

“I’m a WW2 junkie and always glad to help with obscure factoids.”
Posted by: john brewster | Jul 18 2023 0:51 utc | 138
Thanks.
Exactly when I was getting antsy and exasperated with the noisy drunks at the end of the bar, arguing for the sake of arguing, as drunks do, someone posts something useful, reminding me why this place is worth it.
And please, someone, call Shoigu, pitching the Black Sea, bathtub ducks solution…. I’d like to see that employed

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 1:35 utc | 148

https://news.antiwar.com/2023/07/16/pentagon-intelligence-official-says-ukraine-war-at-a-stalemate/
The real messages from this article:
1. Ukranazistan is not an independent country. The Bidet regime ordered its offensive, despite knowing it would fail.
2. The Bidet regime knew quite well all its “game changers” would do nothing to change the situation but went ahead because the alternative was
3. Ukranazistan giving up the fight, therefore stopping the slaughter of Ukrainian conscripts dragged off the streets and thrown into battle with two days’ training, which means
4. The Bidet regime thinks of Ukranazistan as a disposable tool to use to chip away at Russia and when broken to be thrown away.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 1:43 utc | 149

@ Nate | Jul 18 2023 1:12 utc | 144
nate, i have been meaning to thank you for the past few weeks, but am doing it today.. thanks.. appreciate it..

Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:48 utc | 150

@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 1:43 utc | 149
consumer, throw away cultures tend to see everything in that manner.. sad, isn’t it?? actually it is worse then sad.. it is a war crime and i hold nato and friends responsible for this..

Posted by: james | Jul 18 2023 1:49 utc | 151

I see b purged Putin’s black humor I posted last night, but that’s okay as it’s included in my final take on Vilnius and the proclamations that emanated from what seem like a bunch of drunkards unable to think straight, and I don’t think Melaleuca has read it yet, “NATO DUI: Too Much NATO Kool-Aid”. I must thank S for providing the article about EU gas consumption as it fit in well with the prose. I must recommend the short essay Crooke links to at the end of his piece, “Why the Idea of Western Civilization is More Myth Than History”, which he includes because it forms the foundation for the Establishment Narrative:
“I wanted to tell him that the ancient Greeks did not give us Western Civilization. That there is no golden thread, unfurling unbroken through time from Plato to NATO. That we in the modern West are not the heirs of a unique and elevated cultural tradition, stretching back through Atlantic modernity to Enlightenment and Renaissance Europe, and from there through the darkness of the medieval period and ultimately back to the glories of classical Greece and Rome.”
It’s a disclaimer that ought to be provided at the beginning of every Western Civilization course, but then the textbooks would need to be revised to reflect the exposed reality. Oh, and Ghandi’s observation ought to also be added: “Western Civilization? That would be a good idea.”

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 18 2023 1:57 utc | 152

Criminals destroy evidence to hide crimes, opportunistically loot & extort while there is chaos, and break those weaker than them to relieve frustration. Ukraine fulfills these roles here. Further it has a chance to kill any Russians, break their stuff, waste their resources, and make them feel sad as they kill people deeply related to them. The returns are too great to pass up for the truly evil.
However…
You torture a psychopath by not giving them what they want, letting them thrash and waste their energy into impotence. You torture a narcissist by not giving them attention, letting them thrash and waste their energy into humiliation. The SMO is letting the MIC NATO hoist itself upon its own petard; it cannot get back lost land, its weapons look pathetic, and it locked its diminishing resources in this mess. Vengeance through stoic patience is working, and it eats these psychos up inside every day.

Posted by: titmouse | Jul 18 2023 2:12 utc | 153

“…The US Military spent more than a decade in Vietnam (under one guise or another)..”
Arch Bungle@142
At least twenty years and probably much longer: they were hand in glove with the French, who they refused to allow to leave, they stymied the Geneva Agreements and re-unification, they flew Diem in and then, after the CIA and its proxies such as the Hmong, they poured in ‘advisors’ in the tens of thousands. Wouldn’t you agree?
As to the matter if political impotence this is just a matter of definition- you know what Clausewitz said about politics- to me Operation Phoenix was entirely political, the military being little more than unthinking tools. Of course the politics includes the brass.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 18 2023 2:31 utc | 154

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 18 2023 1:57 utc | 152
“I wanted to tell him that the ancient Greeks did not give us Western Civilization. That there is no golden thread, unfurling unbroken through time from Plato to NATO.”
Thank you. Finally. As far as I can tell the myth of the Greeks and Romans being the foundation of Western civilisation was one created largely by the British.
Peel away the skin of modern Western civilisation and you will find Averroes, Avicenna, Al‑Ghazali, al‑Farabi, Ibn Tufail … Even the religion of the West is Middle Eastern in origin.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:37 utc | 155

Bloomberg reports that EU gas run out of ammo to send to Ukraine.
Europe Is Pledging Ukraine Weapons It Can’t Make
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-14/eu-us-nato-don-t-have-enough-weapons-for-ukraine-to-fight-russia
In a nutshell, suppliers of components and materials outside Europe have raised their prices. And EU weapons manufacturers refuse to deliver unles they get more money and long-term contracts. Neither of which theEU and EU countries can afford after placing massive orders with US weapons dealers.
(Euronews, More money is needed to maintain funding for the war in Ukraine, as well as the bloc’s migration policy.
In a rare step, the European Commission has asked member states to contribute billions more in euros to top-up the EU’s budget for the next four years.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/06/20/brussels-asks-eu-countries-for-more-money-for-ukraine-and-to-plug-budget-gaps)
According to Bloomberg, the US has run out of ammo, too. Seems they weren’t lying when they said cluster ammo is all they’ve left.
Looks like after shuttering most of their air defence in April/May, the Ukrainian offensive (and defensive) is about to proceed without artilley soon.
But, no worries, the world’s most famous actor will lead his groups to liberate Crimea with weapons that need no ammo: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukrainian-civilians-train-wooden-assault-26084738

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:38 utc | 156

Günther Prien (which is the correct spelling of his name) did mention scraping an anchor cable when trying to slip around the U-Boot nets. Protective nets are currently in place in Norfolk VA to protect every USN dock, including the Portsmouth shipyard. The USN does not need to worry about commercial traffic and last time I was shoed away by the US Navy Patrol there my depth sounder reported fifty odd feet.
I imagine that the Russian Admiralty is familiar with the concept, nor would I be surprised if it was not mentioned after the previous attack on the Kerch Strait bridge.
————————————————————————————–
In the meantime it’s war and the enemy gets a vote too. So let’s give russia a break here. They can stop most of the attacks but it’s something new all the time. War is about casualties, insisting on none is a mindset of defeat.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 17 2023 19:28 utc | 60
———————————————————
The Brits do deserve a ‘recognition’ award, having made their contributions to the sinking of the Moskva, the prior attack on the bridge, as well as a few other gems.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 18 2023 2:44 utc | 157

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 18 2023 2:44 utc | 157

The Brits do deserve a ‘recognition’ award, having made their contributions to the sinking of the Moskva, the prior attack on the bridge, as well as a few other gems.

Not until they step up to claim their reward publicly …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:48 utc | 158

Peel away the skin of modern Western civilisation and you will find Averroes, Avicenna, Al‑Ghazali, al‑Farabi, Ibn Tufail … Even the religion of the West is Middle Eastern in origin.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:37 utc | 155

Now this is a bit (understatement) ridiculous. No mental neither verbal acrobacy can wipe away the significance of Antiquity as it is generally (and correctly) perceived.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 18 2023 2:53 utc | 159

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 17 2023 19:07 utc | 51
Very good question, its roughly over 500km from Odessa to the Crimean Bridge. The amount of fuel/batteries required to traverse that distance.
Whats also remarkable is how the MOD still blatantly allows US/UK Reconnaissance planes/drones inside the BlackSea on a daily bases, without hitting a single fly. What would be wrong with shooting them down, since they are clearly a party to the war. Sometimes the logic baffles the mind.

Posted by: odd | Jul 18 2023 2:55 utc | 160

The EU and it’s chief war mongerer Borell are beginng to realize the war against Russia is lost:
“Europeans didn’t pay enough attention to Latin Americans.
And now we have to take into account a new geopolitical scenario with the emergence of China and a new role for Russia.”
The EU has been forced to organize it’s Latin America -conference without inviting Selensky, and they’ll have to talk about other stuff than Ukraine.
Even worse, it seems that Latin Americans have been inspired by Ursula von der Leyen and Joseph Borrell’s rants about reparations that agressors and violators of human rights should pay to the victims. They are now asking the EU to pay up for the illegal wars and the slave trade EU member States conducted against Latin American countries.
https://www.euronews.com/video/2023/07/17/brussels-looks-to-regain-influence-in-latin-america-as-leaders-summit-begins
Perhaps Russia and China can start looking for EU assets to freeze and confiscate, to transfer to Brazil, Colombia and other victims of European agressions. Or maybe start to expropriate Europe’s oligarchs for “not doing enough” to force their governments to “do the right thing”.
Interesting times ahead, if Europe’s politicians will finally be forced to eat what they have been serving others!

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:59 utc | 161

134: “The submarine net was 30 miles long, 60 to 90 metres high. It was made from 18 mm steel wire with 4 x 4 m mesh. The netlaying operation began on 28.3.1943 and it was finished on 15.5. The old Russian net on the Finnish coast was replaced 10.6. Because of the net all submarine hunting forces could be concentrated between Porkkala and Suursaari.”
4×4 m mesh would be too big for small drones. The biggest Remus appears to under 1 m diameter. The required net would be astronomically heavy, if made of steel. Carbon fiber?

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 18 2023 3:01 utc | 162

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 0:37 utc | 131
The Ukrainians are saying that Russia has collected a force of More than 100,000 soldiers, more than 900 tanks and 370 MLRS in the Limano-Kupyansk direction.
https://t.me/remylind21/5261
That’s big and what you will probably need for an offensive. Doesn’t mean there will be one but that’s how big it needs to be and expect heavy losses before the get go.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 18 2023 1:01 utc | 141
Back in June, Putin did ask his military to establish a safety corridor to stop Ukrainian terrorists from butchering civilians in western Russia.
So far, Putin has not been known for making idle threats.

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 3:03 utc | 163

Posted by: odd | Jul 18 2023 2:55 utc | 160
What would be wrong with shooting them down, since they are clearly a party to the war. Sometimes the logic baffles the mind.
==========================
Because….
neocons!

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 18 2023 3:04 utc | 164

Remember that epic rant by a Russian  soldier that was all over Telegram a few days ago? He’s now been interviewed by Russian television talking about the war from a frontline  perspective. 
https://t.me/putingers_cat/6155

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:07 utc | 165

It occurs to me that perhaps Putin told Erodogan some time back that Russia was going to end grain deal participation and Erdo responded by releasing Azov and ok-ing Sweden NATO bid. Turkey was making $$ on the grain transit (I wonder how much) and is eager for it to continue.
It will be interesting to see what happens if it really ends, as mounting financial pressure on Ukraine and EU backers seems to be reaching a critical point now.
Also wonder if there was a US drone over Black Sea during bridge attack. If so then perhaps there will be more action on that front.
Winter is coming and gas will be an issue again – wonder if storage is filled.
This winter logistic and financial concerns may have a much larger impact than they have so far and the West may try to freeze the conflict in order to preserve their puppet and enough territory for NATO incorporation. If they propose this then Russia should immediately go for large offensive opperation in my opinion.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 18 2023 3:08 utc | 166

Some weeks ago I read a comment somewhere, maybe Moon Of Alabama, that made total sense to me. Whoever it was raised the question of why NATO imagined Ukranazistan could beat Russia, and answered it this way: NATO built up a Ukranazistani army that it itself believed that it could not beat without using nuclear weapons. Since NATO thought
1. Itself invincible, Russia weak, and
2. Russia would and could not use nuclear weapons in Ukranazistan, full of ethnic Russians with relatives in Russia
it concluded that Russia was doomed to fail and collapse.
It makes more sense than any other interpretation of NATOstani behaviour in recent years I’ve come across.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 167

@Tom Q Collins 100
A couple killed and their young daughter badly injured.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:10 utc | 168

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 18 2023 2:53 utc | 159
Now this is a bit (understatement) ridiculous.
If anything, I understated things myself …
No mental neither verbal acrobacy can wipe away the significance of Antiquity
There is no attempt “wipe away the significance of Antiquity” here.
There is an attempt to attribute the correct features of Western civilisation to the correct Antiquity.
as it is generally (and correctly) perceived.
It is generally perceived wrongly, as with most things related to history and culture and the historical origins of culture.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 3:13 utc | 169

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 166
…why NATO imagined Ukranazistan could beat Russia, and answered it this way: NATO built up a Ukranazistani army that it itself believed that it could not beat without using nuclear weapons. Since NATO thought
1. Itself invincible, Russia weak …..
===========================================
I think they thought that Russia had far more internal conflict and that Putin was more vulnerable. I also suspect – without the slightest evidence – that they got played by Russian counter-intel ops.
Russia, after all, has an ex Intelligence President who spent a lot of time in the West and understands us very well. (For that reason I suspect the Progozin event was partly a psyop to entice a renewed large Ukie offense but the latter were too beaten up to take the bait.)
That said, I gather he still has many critics inside Russia, both hardliners who want him to do much more in the SMO (like many barflies!) and patriots who believe he is beholden to 5th column elements within the Russian body politic. But still: he could have counter-intel’d the West and deliberately fed them the impression that Russia internally is a hot mess. Doctorow’s descriptions have made me seriously regret am not at a different stage in the life cycle since otherwise I would move out there. Looks like one of the best countries in the world – civilized, clean, natural, growing, positive momentum, homogeneous culture/populations. They deserve it after the extremely hard twentieth century.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 18 2023 3:23 utc | 170

Apart from the hysteria, this latest Kerch bridge strike was a significantly weaker attack than the last one, despite the weapons being far more sophisticated. Diminishing bang for the buck, one might say, especially since Putin was, according to Erdoğan, waffling about cancelling the grain deal but after this attack cancelled it.
It’s pretty much the equivalent of Hitler firing V1s at Britain while the Reich was falling.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:55 utc | 171

More lancet upgrades:
Swarms
Ultra fast combat algorithms
Three wing design
Multiple, automatic target acquisitions.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2023/07/17/lancet-mutates-to-izdelie-53-its-made-in-a-mall-production-tripled/
Russia is getting right with the War God. Victory will follow.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 18 2023 3:57 utc | 172

Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:09 utc | 166
>…”why is Russia failing?… because NATO believed USNATO BS”…
Is a direct corollary of
Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 3:13 utc | 168
“……generally perceived wrongly, as with most things related to history and culture and the historical origins of culturethis sloSMO…
BP. what whoever you are remember-citing has failed to understand, ….. this “war” is *NOT* the war USNATO has been planning and salivating in anticipation of, for over a decade (at least).
The Sanctions From Hell™️ were supposed to have reduced the “ruble to rubble” within 6 weeks, tops.
Russia was to be destroyed economically, not militarily.
>… Russia-is-weak; it’s-military-is-a-joke; drunk Russia ran out of its crappy, pathetic Soviet weapons in June 2022….
But.
The sanctions failed, and thus USNATO is now making THE most fundamental error possible…. fighting a land war against Russia in Europe …. A lesson someone seems to need to learn every century… the Swedes(1700s), the French(1800s) the Germans(1900s)and now the USAUSAUSA+vassals.(2000s).
Russia isn’t weak; it’s military is the equal (now better) than USNATO; and it is producing new weapons, and innovating at a rate truly unimaginable to the West.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 4:02 utc | 173

In response to

Russia isn’t weak; it’s military is the equal (now better) than USNATO; and it is producing new weapons, and innovating at a rate truly unimaginable to the West.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 4:02 utc | 172

When you don’t have profit driving the bus, amazing things can happen and China is another example

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2023 4:05 utc | 174

When you don’t have profit driving the bus, amazing things can happen and China is another example
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2023 4:05 utc | 173
Agree.
And. For Russia this is an existential battle.
The USAUSAUSA can eventually declare victory and leave.
Europe will do what it does, when it loses is every-century war against Russia.
Regroup, and attempt a redraw in about 90 years..🤡

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2023 4:09 utc | 175

Dumb move to attack the Kerch bridge in such an ineffective manner. There is no impact on supplies to the front and now the Russians are aware of the vulnerability of the bridge to underwater attack.
Guess we will see torpedo nets etc popping up around the bridge. What could have been an effective attack with real impact on the front was wasted.

Posted by: Poul | Jul 18 2023 5:26 utc | 176

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 18 2023 2:38 utc | 156
BMA analysis also said EUropean industries are at their peace time max capacity. Governments and Nato would like to move to ”light war-time footing” to get control of industries directly.
Luckily, judging by past EU micromanaging of the economy, that will turn out a catastrophy.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 6:29 utc | 177

Btw, the RU offensive in Kupyansk-Lyman seems quite successful. We also have talk about Kharkov area. It won’t allow AFU to regroup or take a breather after breaking their teeth in Zaporozhye and will just increase stress everywhere.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 6:33 utc | 178

Dumb move to attack the Kerch bridge in such an ineffective manner.
Posted by: Poul | Jul 18 2023 5:26 utc | 175
In addition to attack on the bridge, there was a 28 drone attack in Crimea ( tass.com/emergencies/1648245 )
The entire war, since 2014, is mostly terrorism. NS and both bridge attacks were very successful from this perspective. I doubt it’s the last attack on the bridge, there is never any response. They only hold meetings ( tass.com/politics/1648179 ), express concern, then Medvedev tweets something angry, then back to summer vacation.
The ZNPP attacks or the Belgorod and Donetsk continuous shelling was also successful terrorism. Russia no longer moves the front line a single km. Full paralysis until nato organizes and moves in, officially ends it like Syria. Which probably was the original plan anyway, a little smo using medieval tactics and without permission to hit any useful targets (factories, supply lines, power grid and fuel storage) can’t have other results.

Posted by: rk | Jul 18 2023 6:42 utc | 179

Russia isn’t weak; it’s military is the equal (now better) than USNATO; and it is producing new weapons, and innovating at a rate truly unimaginable to the West. 172
It’s the speed of innovation in drones that is incredible. I expect that to continue over the next year, accelerated by live testing in battle conditions.
It will, no doubt, change the future of battlefields in the coming months, never mind years.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 18 2023 7:57 utc | 180

@Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 23:08 utc | 114

Drones have changed the face of warfare forever.

Nothing is forever, but the drones have changed things for now. There are a couple of very informative videos on that subject linked from Simplicius’ latest piece:
Kerch Bridge Déjà Vu – Breakdown

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:11 utc | 181

@HERMIUS | Jul 17 2023 23:46 utc | 122
Excellent, I will steal that.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:15 utc | 182

Thanks Norwegian.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 18 2023 8:20 utc | 183

@Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 2:37 utc | 155

Peel away the skin of modern Western civilisation and you will find Averroes, Avicenna, Al‑Ghazali, al‑Farabi, Ibn Tufail … Even the religion of the West is Middle Eastern in origin.

And the Middle Eastern civilization is a reboot of what existed thousands of years before (before the Younger Dryas), as evidenced by high-tech remains in Egypt (e.g. Serapeum of Saqqara) as well as in other parts of the world (Peru/Bolivia, Cambodia and more). We are today closer in time to the Egyptian Pharaos than the Egyptian Pharaos were to those who actually built the pyramids.
A main source of modern wars is the unfounded insistence in the west of its uniqueness and superiority. Nothing is allowed to surpass it in the present or in the past. This insistence of superiority hides the truth that human history is much longer and more spectacular than presently acknowledged. The refusal to accept this is a foundation for the wars today.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 184

@rk | Jul 18 2023 6:42 utc | 178

Russia no longer moves the front line a single km. Full paralysis until nato organizes and moves in

Sure… when the Poles and Lithuanians move in… the Suwalki gap becomes history.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:47 utc | 185

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183
I have a comment on the open thread

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2023 8:52 utc | 186

4. The Bidet regime thinks of Ukranazistan as a disposable tool to use to chip away at Russia and when broken to be thrown away.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 1:43 utc | 149
Hitler considered those Ukrainians, who fought on the side of the Wehrmacht against the Russians, rabid dogs – as Russians who could be be used to kill as many of their fellow Russians as possible. To be put down as soon as they lost their usefulness.
The US seems to have imported that view along with the Nazis they considered useful.
Well, maybe I am wrong about that. It’s just a colonial mindset, after all. The US considers the inhabitants of the rest of the world along those lines. Including the EU which confuses the hell out of Western Europe.

Posted by: Martina | Jul 18 2023 9:15 utc | 187

I’m waiting for the first conclusions of the Collective Wasters malinformation PR operatives to claim that Russia has yet again attacked itself as another false flag and this time within its own borders.
Nets!!
Protecting Military ports and targets is one thing – trying to do the same with civilian infrastructure is not rationally possible. Th resources, pollution and ecological consequences would be of a massive order of magnitudes bigger.
Only idiots believe building walls around themselves means no one can see them!
Prisons are the only functional purpose of such security.
Retaliation?
This is an asymmetric conflagration, there are mercenaries of the Collective Waste and there are clandestine special forces who have been engaged all over the world in undeclared atrocities (I guess many may suddenly be deciding that a life on civvy street is beckoning rather than a secret annihilation at any number of these mini bases and FOP’s where there is NO backup or easy evacuation. And there is the Resistance, the General isn’t yet fully avenged and unless I have missed it, the Red Flag is still raised over the old mosque.
In the ex-Ukraine? There are many bridges over the Dniper …
Invasion?
Russia invaded Europe was because it was invaded first. When Napoleon did it – they arrived in Paris. When Hitler did they arrived in Berlin.
When NATO does it officially they will arrive at the Atlantic and that pond will suddenly look very small there are many many many bridges on the East Coast of the US – all these Straits of Florida Islands all the way up to Manhattan and beyond.
That’s a LOT of nets 🤪
Losers!
The acceleration in frantic begging to be allowed to join the new club of global finance and be allowed to keep their power by the usual suspects, as they break ranks with their structure WB, IMF, WTO … is not going to help them.
Winners.
As I previously stated it will be the Majority of the Humans who will be the Honest Broker in the Great Peace Deal of which the Banderists proxies will forever disappear, as some demented enclave in Alberta ! That is China and African leaders who came to Ukraine and offered it. Only to have their hands bitten so far by the Xenophobes of our demented supremacists Collective Wastes aristos.
The Piper is coming to collect his reward, better pay up promptly!

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 18 2023 9:31 utc | 188

… It’s pretty much the equivalent of Hitler firing V1s at Britain while the Reich was falling.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 18 2023 3:55 utc | 170

Agreed, but the stated goal of western strategists is to inflict politically damaging costs on the current Russian leadership, ideally producing “regime change”.
Moskva, Kakhovka HPP, two hits on the Kerch bridge, probably all British planned and executed, these are successes by that criteria.
Where is has been greatly profitable for the enemy to devise a novel attack strategy, then, simply going on the available evidence, RF MoD has failed to anticipate those attacks and has arguable failed even to defended high value targets on the basis of a rational assessment of their monetary value and failure impact.
Incremental improvements on the basis of ongoing successes / failures doesn’t work with catastrophe risk. “Getting it right in the end” didn’t work in the examples listed above and it never would have.
At least Kerch bridge poses no catastrophe risk, unlike Kakhovka HPP and now Zaporhizia NPP.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 18 2023 9:45 utc | 189

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183
And the Middle Eastern civilization is a reboot of what existed thousands of years before (before the Younger Dryas), as evidenced by high-tech remains in Egypt (e.g. Serapeum of Saqqara) as well as in other parts of the world (Peru/Bolivia, Cambodia and more). We are today closer in time to the Egyptian Pharaos than the Egyptian Pharaos were to those who actually built the pyramids.
I was thinking Sumer and Akkad, but generally agree.
*resists temptation to mention the Annunaki*

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 18 2023 9:48 utc | 190

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation about the strikes on Odessa and Mykolaiv.
1. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at night struck a retaliation strike with high-precision sea-based weapons at facilities where terrorist acts against the Russian Federation were being prepared with the use of unmanned boats
2. A blow was also struck at the places of manufacture of unmanned boats in the Odessa region. In addition, fuel infrastructure facilities providing the APU with fuel were destroyed in the Nikolaev area.All targets planned for the strike are hit.
3. The strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the districts of Nikolaev and Odessa destroyed fuel storage facilities with a total volume of about 70 thousand tons, from which the provision of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with fuel was carried out.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation also reported that over the past day our troops have advanced another 2 kilometers in the Kupyansk direction. The enemy’s counterattacks in order to stabilize the front line were successfully repelled.
The enemy continues to transfer reserves to Kupyansk in order to strengthen the defense and compensate for serious losses in manpower.
CC

Posted by: Shmes | Jul 18 2023 9:49 utc | 191

Dima made a review on the Crimea bridge strike and the relevant effects.
It caused a traffic jam on Zaporozhye side of the main RU supply road. According to Dima, AFU has only a time window of few days to launch a large attack on Zap front before RU can resolve the situation and deblock the roads.
Military summary July 17-18th
-AFU attacks toward Staramajorske and Urozhaine were repelled
-AFU is accumulating near Piyatikhatki to launch an attack. RU is shelling not only Piyatikhatki but the settlement north of it, Stepove through which they come
-RU is bombing all the forest lines near N/NE of Robotino, where AFU has lot of men waiting to attack
-RU launched an attack from Maryinka toward Krasnogorovka
-AFU captured a trench line W of Klescheevka
-AFU also uses cluster munitions near Klescheevka
-RU bombs AFU rear W of Klescheevka in Oleksandro-Shultyne
-AFU attack failed more or less catastrophically near Berkhivka-Yahodne area south of the water reservoir
-RU front in trouble in Berestove – Vasylivka (NE of Soledar), AFU managed to take the area and may launch an attack in either direction
-RU managing successful hits on AFU on Verkhokamianka-Verkhokamianske line
-RU repelled AFU attacks on the Torske extended bridgehead from all sides
-RU makes lot of smaller supporting attacks N of Torske bridgehead and also crossed Zherebets river
-The best solution to fix the grain deal issue is to reduce Odessa port and facilities into rubble

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 18 2023 10:13 utc | 192

Hi, just a longtime lurker.
And a pessimist.
I read on aviapro and other sites, that the australians are keen on sending 41 of their fa18 jets to ukraine.
In my opinion this is nothing but a genocide on slavic people by the western values countries. A slow genocide that started with yugoslavia and keeps going on to this day.
They will not stop. The hatred is the only thing that these people have.
I am so sick of it all…

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2023 11:06 utc | 193

152, 155 Sorry but the Greeks did give us Western Civilization.
Some examples: the Death of Socrates was copied for the death of Christ. As Socrates willingly gave up his life for a moral principal. Christianity is a bedrock of Western Civilization.
Without the Greek sciences there would be no Western Civ: Pythagoras gave us geometry, Archimedes gave us the
Archimedes screw for irrigation, theory of buoyancy; Thales gave us astronomy; Aristotle, logic; Hipparchus discovered the equinoxes, Galen, who was Marcus Aurelius’ doctor gave doctors a regimen they followed for hundreds if not thousands of years; Theophrastus was the father of botany; Euclid, geometry as well.
I could go on but its undeniable fact that the Greek and Romans gave us Western Civilization.

Posted by: canuck | Jul 18 2023 11:12 utc | 194

Cargo ships sail under the bridge drop off their wee boaty things, then from the Azov Sea they attack from the rear. Most countries at war will stop and search sea traffic, the Russians, not so much. Weird how they discover the boat making factory and a rather large, surely it wasn’t hidden, fuel depot that they’d somehow missed over the past year, and it was right under their nose in the Odessa region. Just wondering if Russia has hockey coaches running the SloMo. Lots of skating but very little traction and a traffic jamn on the only supply highway in the Southern war theatre……dogs bark, the SloMo moves on.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 18 2023 11:17 utc | 195

In response to anon2020@188,
They would have to produce desirable results to be considered successes. Considering that these attacks primarily undermine the position of West-adjacent elites that were previously pushing for a negotiated off-ramp, instead forcing into the mainstream a hardliner position and with it the subsequent camp, so called силовой блок, whose representatives adhere to it, one would assume that the intent is to consolidate Russian politics and society around a hard-line anti-Western position that, in the end, will become a matter of principle.
Even in the case of, as you put it, the ideal outcome of regime change came to pass, it would more than likely occur within the framework of a legitimate transfer of executive power to a representative structure more in tune with the hard-line position, since this reorientation is not being suppressed and, on the whole, falls within the Russian establishment. The same general result is being achieved by supporting Ukraine politically and militarily, so if these strikes are conducted exclusively for this purpose, they are simply the icing on an already existing cake that neither add or retract from it.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 18 2023 11:24 utc | 196

Posted by: canuck | Jul 18 2023 11:12 utc | 193
Ignorance is bliss.
The same Western Civilization forcefully sterilizes the real Canadians. Not the land usurpers and occupiers.
Also, for all your like-minded happy to be ignorants.
How did your Western Civilization get out of your Dark Ages?
Never mind. Ignorance is still Bliss.

Posted by: sal | Jul 18 2023 11:32 utc | 197

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2023 8:36 utc | 183
And the Middle Eastern civilization is a reboot of what existed thousands of years before …
No reboot = stagnation.
For all the deniers, why don’t you accept the contribution of the rest of the world?
Well, you do it in many ways. By rebranding as if it was the Western Civilization’s contribution..

Posted by: sal | Jul 18 2023 11:41 utc | 198

Ah, it seems like there’s a sneaky little plot to give history a makeover by tweaking the Western narrative, huh?
It seems that the Western media and their chatty talking heads have taken quite a liking to the narrative that Russia simply strolled into Ukraine back in 2014. Quite the dramatic tale they’ve spun, wouldn’t you say?
Keep your eyes peeled, my fellow tavern-dwellers, for the spectacle that is about to unfold!
In my humble opinion, it seems like someone is trying to play the “let’s pretend” game to dismiss our well-founded arguments that the invasion was a direct response to eight years of Kiev’s aggressive behaviour.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 18 2023 12:00 utc | 199

-> Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17
I agree that the physical elimination of Ukrainian command and control including and above all Zelensky would put the cat amongst the pigeons. Upgrading the SMO to an outright declaration of war, branding the Kiev regime by the Duma as a terror organization and all those who aid and abet that regime will be destroyed should get some to start thinking. We shouldn’t forget that those who will benefit the most from the overthrow of the Kiev fascists will be the Ukrainian people themselves.

Posted by: Stierlitz | Jul 18 2023 12:07 utc | 200