Ukraine Open Thread 2023-171

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July 17, 2023

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by on July 17, 2023 at 16:39 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Kerch Bridge damage
Reposting from previous thread.
@Rybar has published photographs of the damage to the Kerch Bridge (with awful “BAZA” watermarks). One span has been dislodged and collapsed from one end. The other span may be slightly bent or shifted. The collapsed span is on the eastward heading driveway, between the railway and the westward driveway.
It may be possible to repair the collapsed span in place. After last year’s truck bomb attack, Russia fabricated and replaced five spans of the bridge. In this part of the bridge the steel spans seem to be standard size and length. It is possible that Russia has already prepared some extra spans for the eventual second Ukrainian / British attack.
The site of the attack is the eastern section of the bridge, between Tuzla Island and Russian mainland. I believe this is pre-2022 sovereign Russian territory.
There is speculation on Telegram that the weapon used was a British REMUS 600 autonomous underwater vehicle. If so, this would constitute yet another NATO attack on Russia proper.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 An interesting observation regarding the Crimean Bridge Attacks…
According to Vladimir Rogov, based on the available information (which is difficult to confirm at this stage), the attack on the Crimean Bridge was reportedly carried out using the British maritime autonomous underwater vehicle REMUS 600, equipped with additional explosives. The REMUS 600 has the capability to operate underwater at depths of up to 600 meters and can be easily controlled using a laptop.
The launch of the REMUS 600 was said to have taken place from a civilian vessel in the Black Sea.
Which is interesting because, as @infantmilitario pointed out, the “Joseph Schulte” container ship arrived in Odessa in October 2022 under the flag of Hong Kong.
It is currently docked at the oil harbor of Odessa, specifically at the 4th loading berth designated for loading gas and oil products.
However, reports indicate a lack of infrastructure for container operations in that area.
Given these circumstances, some observers and analysts have speculated that the “Joseph Schulte” container ship may have been utilized as a floating base for drone operations conducted by the Ukrainian Navy and special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO.
Of course, none of this is confirmed, so take it with a grain of salt.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73542

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 17 2023 16:48 utc | 1

Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland and the Neocons want WWIII, that’s clear:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the

Posted by: doim | Jul 17 2023 16:59 utc | 2

Any news on the Ukrainian cossacks.
There’s never been anything mentioned throughout this situation.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 17 2023 17:03 utc | 3

Putin’s video conference on Crimea, English overdub, boilerplate but for those interested in first hand sources:
Putin holds meeting on attack at Crimean Bridge on how to respond

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 17 2023 17:14 utc | 4

Looks like the lancet has two new weapon upgrades a continuous jet which I gather sends a jet of molten metal to melt through cages before impacting the target. Saw one video it looks explosive.
Second is the thermobaric option which I haven’t seen yet but looks big enough to take out buildings and make bunkers uncomfortable.
In other news russia has made headway near kupyansk and Lyman, ukraine is reporting fierce fighting which I think is code for losing.
Ukrainian gains around bahkmut seem to be slowing as russia applies reserves to their positions there.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 17 2023 17:17 utc | 5

@Petri,
after last years attack they changed 8 segments of the road bridge (each lane 4 segments) and 2 segments of the railway.
The new attack will likely request at least 4 road segments to be replaced, and one pillar repaired/replaced (this will make it more difficult), but in shallower water and much closer to the repair facility speeding up the delivery of segments – some 3 month.

Posted by: BG13 | Jul 17 2023 17:17 utc | 6

Judge Doughty’s (State of Missouri; May 2023) ruling on government suppression of free speech, which surfaced to alternative media last week:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23867004-08917380420?responsive=1&title
The beginning of his analysis:
“The principal function of free speech under the United States’ system of government is to invite dispute; it may indeed best serve its high purpose when it induces a condition of unrest, creates dissatisfaction with conditions as they are, or even stirs people to anger. . . ”
Response from American Mind July 14 2023 by Kenin Spivak:
https://americanmind.org/salvo/ending-free-speech/
*”Strangely, the Government and the Left(**) believe that if they pretend the censorship was limited to Covid-19, their position has merit. Aside from the false depiction of the scope of what was censored, the only relevant content that might fall within the safety exception would be posts advocating a treatment known to be harmful. Debates about masks, vaccine effectiveness and side-effects, lockdowns, or the origin of Covid-19 no more fall into an exception than debates about gas prices—though all of the foregoing were censored on instructions from the Biden administration.”
(**)”The Left” is applied to the neocon/neoliberal Biden contingent by this writer. Otherwise, I find his commentary clear and helpful.
*”In April 2022, CISA [Certified Automated Systems Auditor] published the following definitions: “misinformation” is false, but not created or shared with the intention of causing harm; “disinformation” is deliberately created to mislead, harm, or manipulate a person, social group, organization, or country; and “malinformation” is based on fact, but used out of context to mislead, harm, or manipulate. It would be unprecedented for an American court to permit the Government to censor political debate the Government acknowledges is accurate because of its “context.”
*The Supreme Court explained in W. Va. State Bd. of Educ. v. Barnette (1943) that “If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion.”
*Society has the right and civic duty to engage in open, dynamic, rational discourse. These ends are not well served when the government seeks to orchestrate public discussion through content-based mandates.”
*The following are among non-Covid subjects Doughty ruled there was a substantial likelihood the Government had censored: (1) conservative-leaning speech; (2) the Hunter Biden laptop story prior to the 2020 Presidential election; (3) discussions about election integrity and the security of voting by mail; (4) parodies about defendants; (5) negative posts about the economy; (6) negative posts about President Biden, including calling him a liar; and (7) discussions about gas prices, climate change, gender, and abortion.
*Doughty wrote that “the present case arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history,” adding, “[T]he evidence produced thus far depicts an almost dystopian scenario. During the Covid-19 pandemic… the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian ‘Ministry of Truth’” which, he pointed out, altered historical records and disseminated propaganda to manipulate and control public perception.”
*Indicative of the broad reach of the Biden censorship enterprise, in November 2021, CISA director Jen Easterly asserted that people should not be allowed to come to their own decisions about what is true. She added that CISA is “in the business of protecting critical infrastructure, and the most critical is our cognitive infrastructure.” Reacting to this, Doughty held: “The word ‘cognitive’ is an adjective that means ‘relating to cognition.’ ‘Cognition’ means the mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experiences, and the senses. The Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits on its claim that the CISA Defendants believe they had a mandate to control the process of acquiring knowledge.”

Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 17:21 utc | 7

apologies–I slipped this comment on free speech suppression into the wrong thread . ..

Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 17:27 utc | 8

Based on previous actions I anticipate that Putin will do nothing about the Kerch Bridge attack. He believes he has the winning strategy and will as usual ignore these provocations.
As far as the grain deal, I predict that Ukraine and the US will find a way to continue the grain shipments, then commit a false flag attack on one of the grain ships and blame it on Russia. Because that is how they roll…..

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 17:33 utc | 9

The response, and Putin just spoke one is being prepared , should be interesting, Last bridge attack had everyone in Kiev crying about candles and no flush toilets,

Posted by: hankster | Jul 17 2023 17:33 utc | 10

apologies–I slipped this comment on free speech suppression into the wrong thread . ..
Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 17:27 utc | 8
No harm.
Very good contribution.
And relevant because the suppression of free speech hugely influenced the decision to start Gulf war 2.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 17 2023 17:36 utc | 11

All Russia had to do to prevent such an attack on the Kerch Bridge was to place a few security nets across the strait. I find it amazing that the Russian continue to be flat footed on these types of provocations. They only take action, after the fact. More and more I find the upper levels of the Russian MoD stilted and ineffectual. Also, what is with Russia relieving 4 of their top generals this week, and the utter silence about it on Russian media.
I totally disagree with Dima’s analysis of why these Generals were relieved, but at least he names them and discusses it on yesterday’s Military Summary Channel.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 17:39 utc | 12

All Russia had to do to prevent such an attack on the Kerch Bridge was to place a few security nets across the strait
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 17:39 utc | 12
How?

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 17:42 utc | 13

“Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” comes to mind re the tragic yet feckless attack on the bridge. Seems more symbolic than strategic.

Posted by: gottlieb | Jul 17 2023 17:44 utc | 14

Ukraine is being blamed for destroying critical EU energy infrastructure by the western corporate financed elites and their media. Explaining to their public why they should support Ukraine, come hell or high water, thereby becomes a problem since they supposedly caused the hell of high water into Nord Stream and the German economy — which is the main driver of the EU economy. From: Zelenskyy Begs For NATO Entrance or: There must be some way out of here — said the joker to the thief

Posted by: kana | Jul 17 2023 17:45 utc | 15

Re-post from previous Ukraine Open thread –
Well, looking at today’s ‘clobber list’ it seems that a bit of minor vandalism to a bridge has had no military impact whatsoever: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12473200@egNews

The AFU continued unsuccessful attempts at offensive actions in Donetsk and Krasny Liman directions.
In Donetsk direction, as a result of coordinated and courageous actions by units of the Yug Group of Forces, aviation and artillery, 13 enemy attacks have been successfully repelled close to Berestovoye, Belogorovka, Kurdyumovka, Pervomaiskoye and Maryinka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, ammunition depots of the Liman Operational-Tactical Group, the 53rd Mechanised Brigade and the 25th Airborne Brigade of the AFU have been destroyed close to Novoyegorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Kramatorsk and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 320 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, one Msta-B howitzer, two Rapira anti-tank guns, and one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.
In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems launched attacks on AFU units near Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Terny, Yampolovka and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Two enemy attacks have been repelled close to Chervonaya Dibrova and Karmazinovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The activities of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been disrupted close to Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer.
In South Donetsk direction, as a result of active actions by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces, AFU manpower and hardware have been defeated close to Urozhaynoye and Levadnoye (Zaporozhye region).
In Zaporozhye direction, as a result of coordinated actions by Russian troops, enemy manpower and hardware concentration areas have been hit close to Marfopol, Novosyolovka, Shcherbaki and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region).
In addition, the actions of one Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group have been disrupted close to Charivnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 240 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, three Msta-B howitzers, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer.
One ammunition depot of the AFU 33th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed near Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region).
In Kupyansk direction, as a result of active action by units, aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the Zapad Group of Forces, AFU units have been hit close to Novosyolovskoye and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Sinkovka and Ivanovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 35 Ukrainian servicemen, four armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one D-20 howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, eight motor vehicles, one Verba multiple-launch rocket system and one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 73 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 68 areas.
One fuel depot for the military hardware of the Liman Operational-Tactical Group has been destroyed near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Air defence facilities have intercepted three Storm Shadow cruise missiles and three HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.
In addition, 19 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed close to Zaliman, Ploshchanka, Shipilovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Vodyanoye, Nikolskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Removka, Lyubimovka (Zaporozhye region) and Korsunka (Kherson region).
In total, 455 airplanes, 242 helicopters, 5,047 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,731 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,139 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,487 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,717 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

The gleefully gloating trolls need to work out if Ukraine is going to run out of missiles before Russia runs out of concrete and steel…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 17:46 utc | 16

Although I don’t have time to write a full post right now, I would like to moot a topic for discussion. The topic is, “What metrics should be used for measuring Russia’s success?”
I myself was a long-time defender of the SMO, up until the last month or so. I understand the logic of the slow-roll through Ukraine. I know Russia has legitimate reasons for trying to limit escalation, and I also know that Russia is working on many diplomatic fronts and playing a long game with its global partners. I have supported all these things before, so believe me, I get it.
However, just like the Book of Ecclesiastes says, “to everything there is a season and a time to every purpose under heaven.” Just because a certain strategy was justified yesterday does not mean that the same strategy is justified today. Circumstances change and strategies need to change with them. I no longer believe that the SMO is accomplishing anything useful and I think a much more aggressive strategy in Ukraine is called for.
At this point, the remaining defenders of the SMO will point to the daily “clobber lists” to show how Russia is still destroying Ukrainian men and materiel on a regular basis, and say that this proves the SMO is working.
My question is, what if it’s not? What if the “clobber list” is simply the wrong metric? In an earlier phase of the war, we all had to contend with the imperial apologists who laughed at us because Russia had stopped capturing territory and even had some territorial gains reversed. At this point, we explained to them all about Clausewitz’s doctrine and about how it was more important to destroy the enemy’s army than to take territory.
That response was correct at the time, but now the shoe is on the other foot. Now it is the SMO defenders who are using obsolete standards by which to judge Russia’s military performance. It does no good for Russia to continue chewing up a slow dribble of Ukrainian equipment when Ukraine has become a full-blown terrorist state and when the West can continue pouring in a life-support-level drip of machines and mercenaries forever. Russia is now fighting a meaningless and directionless conflict which will continue for the indefinite future at the present rate. Meanwhile, the West continues to arrange more and more attacks on pipelines, dams, bridges, civilians, and God knows what else in the future.
Short of going into open conflict with NATO, obviously what’s needed now is regime change in Kiev. Zelensky, Zaluzhy, all Ukraine’s government and officer corps, all of these high-value targets need to be eliminated, or there is no way the conflict is ever going to stop. Obviously, the only metric worth worrying about now, the only metric that is actually related to victory, is the destruction of the Kiev regime.
Why this is not being done is simply baffling.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jul 17 2023 17:14 utc | 4
Thanks for the link. Yes, boilerplate, but it shows Putin angry and determined.
However, it does show that governmental institutions do work for people there and in an open way for everyone to see. You do not see that in many Western countries, let alone EU parliament or councils. A Crimea bridge sit-rap.
I wish there is a such stream with Putin, military and intelligence.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 17:50 utc | 18

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17
M’kay, I’ll bite…
“What metrics should be used for measuring Russia’s success?”
Well, of course, that will be the metrics used by the senior Russian General Staff in the Ministry of Defence. Metrics to which none of us here have access, despite one or two seeming to believe they have an exceptional, God-given, manifest destiny of entitlement to those metrics…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 17:54 utc | 19

Re: Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 17:39 utc | 12
More trolling, conjecture, armchair warrior advice, opinions, criticisms. No substance, heck even “your own opinion” might add value to the post/thread. “All Russia had to do…. Blah blah… you’ve no idea what they did or didn’t do, you’ve no clue what the cause of the damage was, 12 hours later, and you know nothing more than anyone else in the public does, unless the MOD of Russia personally contacted you with a super secret current report. Guess everyone’s entitled to blather on. “Flat footed”… yeah, ok there….

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 17 2023 17:55 utc | 20

Don’t know if it’s mentioned, but the method of attack according to several TG channels was a British made sea drone, modified from original to support a 500kg explosive device.
My suspicion is by air attack the bridge could be vulnerable to Storm Shadow or SCALP. But the bridge runs basically north-south direction instead of east-west, which means the approaching vectors are easier to cover with air defense. The Storm shadow could perhaps be programmed to approach from a different direction, but strait flying projectiles are predictable and a narrow potential vector of approach.
But sea drones are hard, if the water is deep then anti-drone nets might not work. But it could be a cheap way to protect if they have a deep enough net.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:01 utc | 21

Trubind1 | Jul 17 2023 17:55 utc | 20
You seem personally offended by my comments. In the future I recommend you simply don’t read them.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:01 utc | 22

@11 jpc
thanks for your generous comment and yes, you’re right about Gulf War 2 which intensified MSM BS from that point to increasingly brazen . . . as with the attack on Iraq couldn’t wait to verify WMD because the weather would get too hot so better get on with it

Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 18:04 utc | 23

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:01 utc | 21
Addendum:
The mouth to Kerch strait from Black Sea is 15km. No idea how deep but probably at least 100m.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:05 utc | 24

UWDude | Jul 17 2023 17:42 utc | 13
They can build a billion dollar bridge for cars and a railroad across several miles of water, yet you seem dumbfounded about how to hang a few nets. The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2, yet you act as if such a basic thing is beyond the ability of mankind. Why is that.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:06 utc | 25

(reposted from previous thread)
This latest Kerch bridge sabotage attempt shows that the underwater drones Ukraine has access to are not designed for targeting large structures like bridges and are not particularly effective at doing so. This particular drone had to be loaded with extra explosives to do any significant damage at all.
Russia doesn’t need to detect every underwater drone in the Black Sea to protect the Kerch strait against such things. This is a limited area and quite shallow. The southern entrance is only about 12 miles / 20 km wide. Obvious defensive measures include increasing the number of small patrol boats guarding the bridge (chartering Iranian “mosquito” boats?), and placing a string of underwater microphones across the entrance. Ship traffic during night time hours could also be banned if it isn’t already (about 7 hours at this time of year.)
This bridge has been a premier propaganda target for the entire war. Significantly, however, the only successful attacks on it have been these irregular ones, first a truck bomb and now this repurposed drone, and the truck bomb did more damage. The attacks did show that Russia had inadequate security to protect the bridge.

Posted by: nazcalito | Jul 17 2023 18:09 utc | 26

@ Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 17:21 utc | 7
The US government working with private media entities to determine what is or isn’t “fit for print” so to speak is not unheard of. Chomsky and Herman described relationships between e.g. the Pentagon and news companies like the New York Times or Washington Post which act as a “filter” on what news they report back in the 1970s.
That doesn’t excuse it, but there is a tricky question of what to do with career disinformers, especially during an event which has been killing hundreds to thousands weekly in this country alone since potentially 2019. In China, people who try to make a career out of disinforming people are dealt with through the penal system. The US’s approach under Trump and Biden – having the FDA work with private media companies to label misinformation – has been relatively lax. Banning people from platforms like Twitter doesn’t also ban them from starting their own web platforms (like a blog) to spread their views – being denied the ability to freely advertise your thoughts on another platform is not guaranteed by the first amendment.
That’s what bothers me about all the feigned shockedness from the right-wing, whose state-level leaders in e.g. Texas want to make it illegal to share by any means information about how to get an abortion – something they arrested Emma Goldman for back in the gilded ages – and who want to declare that any nudity in art is pornographic. Extending the 1984 reference, maybe they want a Junior Anti-Sex League of their own? Our modern day Comstocks doth protest too much.
Well, anyway. The issue of internet censorship is related directly to the commercial structure of social media, which is shaky on its own terms. Twitter is not a profitable entity and had only had a couple years of profitability under Dorsey. The value of the social network is decreasing as new management has allowed right-wing disinformers and trolls to run amok, especially on the oddly titled “for you” tab. Advertisers want less and less to do with the platform as they don’t know if they might serve an ad under an Islamist’s PR account or under a misogynistic rant or under a wholesale endorsement of race war. The future of social media is probably relatively decentralized, with atproto and activitypub applications on small private servers powering the discourse. The best part? No ads.

Posted by: fnord | Jul 17 2023 18:11 utc | 27

Perhaps it is useful to repeat here that any criticism of USA+NATO weapons and the puny size of their forces is silly because they apply to the *peacetime* militaries of USA+NATO; just like the RF military is largely a peacetime military too because of the “butter+guns” policy of Putin (“we haven’t started anything serious yet”) even if things are changing a bit with time, as the difference between USA and RF is that USA town are not being bombed but RF towns are being bombed.
The USA peacetime military is just for parade/testing and expeditionary/garrison purposes. How toys like the F35 or Patriot etc. perform does not matter much, because they won’t get used for real (and the Patriot is probably good for what it has been designed, which is quite inappropriate for the Ukraine or Saudi Arabia cases).
If the USA were to “start anything serious” they would switch to mass production of simpler, more effective stuff, and they would rapidly get rid of their “parquet generals” too, just as they did in WW1 and WW2, ramping up pretty fast.

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 17 2023 18:12 utc | 28

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:06 utc | 25
The issue with nets is very different at 10-20m of water for some hundreds meters (they were set up directly along the side of the ship) vs. running tens of kilometers at 100m depth. Nets were also used to cover harbor entrance, but they weren’t continuous, more like a periodic and layering maze (my understanding).
But guess they don’t need to set the net at open ocean, they could pin point lay the net to cover the columns, which are significantly more shallow areas.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:14 utc | 29

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:01 utc | 21
Addendum:
The mouth to Kerch strait from Black Sea is 15km. No idea how deep but probably at least 100m.

No, not even close. The maximum depth of the Kerch Strait is a mere 18 meters. And for those who don’t know, the Sea of Azov is even shallower: A maximum depth of 13 meters. Most of the Sea of Azov is so shallow you could wade across it and it’s filled with rotting, stinking seaweed.
Shipping is very limited in such environments. The bridge could have been better defended and Russia should have been attuned to the possibility. This is only, what, the 5th successful terrorist attack on Russian infrastructure since the SMO began?

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 18:14 utc | 30

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 18:14 utc | 30
Well, the Black sea is in the mid sections 2000m deep. But otherwise you’re correct, the area near the bridge is below 20 meters almost continuously, and even the mouth to the Kerch strait is 35 meters at most.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:18 utc | 31

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 18:14 utc | 30
Sorry, misread this:
“And for those who don’t know, the Sea of Azov is even shallower: A maximum depth of 13 meters.”
as
Black Sea. Disregard.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 32

Kiev has electricity, water, free and cheap public transportation, TV channels still work without pause, countless visits from US/EU dignitaries who mock Putin, etc. Lviv is untouched. The Polish border is calm.
Putin’s daughter. So this is Orthodox Christianity? What kind of religion allows you to do this? Western dance music as well. Humiliating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h1BAq_fcXI
Kadyrov’s daughters…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACXHdaIOTdU
Question is why are you not a Muslim? Christianity is dead. Your women are loose and literally stink (Muslim girls shave all leg and pubic hair while Catholic girls let it grow – Yikes). Question to the Trolls: Do you know about your wife’s past romantic life? Your daughters? Don’t be a Putin. Be a Kadyrov.
Best thing I did was revert to Islam from Orthodoxy. Orthodoxy is many times more conservative than Islam – Yet NOBODY follows it! That is because the Hebrews changed it. Made it weird and impossible to believe. At least in Islam we believe in the Big Bang and evolution. Yes, the big bang was two objects coming together and creating just like man and woman do. Jesus was sent to show Hebrews kindness and love. They destroyed him. Islam was created to right those wrongs. We love Jesus more than Christians do.

Posted by: Sergei | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:06 utc | 25
#############
A smart person may be inclined to wonder why they don’t do something as simple as hanging the nets.
Because it is very unlikely that you’re thinking of things that the Russian leadership hasn’t considered.
Now, that smart person I am referring to would probably be trying to understand the thinking and perspective of the Russian leadership.
Is that what you’re about? If so, I wholeheartedly approve of the pursuit of both knowledge and understanding.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 17 2023 18:25 utc | 34

-> Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17

What if the “clobber list” is simply the wrong metric? In an earlier phase of the war, we all had to contend with the imperial apologists who laughed at us because Russia had stopped capturing territory and even had some territorial gains reversed. At this point, we explained to them all about Clausewitz’s doctrine and about how it was more important to destroy the enemy’s army than to take territory.

It has to do where RF thinks NATO border ends in a strategic posture, when the border is negotiated. Connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus (gap 1), and ending Ukraine SW of Odesa at the Romanian border (gap 2). That is NATO’s horror they have to deal a day in day out. None of those actions would initiate “nucular”.
Because nobody in the USA wants to sacrifice New York or Boston for Russia on the Danube, however horrible that is for EU and NATO is.
Ability to project posture as such, would end the SMO tomorrow and have humiliating, but unconditional dance for the conceded West towards, probably to set up a sort of a Iron Veil if not Wall for sometime to come. But just those two adding to Donbas’ liberation shorten many offensives, slow war that can linger on. I think RF has a business to do, ending this decisively and smart, means more business.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 18:26 utc | 35

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 17:39 utc | 12
RF has made escalation dominance into an art form…which is more effective than a mess of nets.

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Jul 17 2023 18:31 utc | 36

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 17 2023 18:33 utc | 37

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17
Brilliant comment.
The network of people and governments behind this mess don’t give two dingo’s kidneys about the shocking and gruesome loss of life, nor the destruction of the Ukraine. They care nothing for the lives of Russians. Not one whit. Everyone and everything outside their little group is expendible. The Ukie leadership ie Zelensky et al could care less about the lives of Ukrainians, including women, children, and babies.
In other words, Russia and mankind’s enemy is just fine to go on sacrificing tens of thousands, even millions of lives. They rise in the morning, have a hearty breakfast , laugh and giggle as they sentence a whole country to death.
They don’t care. Russia needs to cause real fear in tgese people. Eliminate the Kievan regime. Neuter NATO. Turn up the heat.

Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 17 2023 18:34 utc | 38

@25:
The British did hang nets in Scapa Flow, where the Home Fleet was based. German U-boats penetrated them and sunk the battleship Royal Oak.

Posted by: FrankDrakman | Jul 17 2023 18:36 utc | 39

Islam was created to right those wrongs. We love Jesus more than Christians do.
Posted by: Sergei | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33
##############
You’re confusing your dislike of Putin as having something to do with Islam. Please don’t.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 17 2023 18:38 utc | 40

Posted by: Sergei | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33
I agree, you feel sorry for Ekaterina watching the video. She is energetic and graceful while Ivan Klimov moves like a f-ing robot. She deserved a much better partner!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 17 2023 18:38 utc | 41

The Crimea is now one of the best followed Targets as a 1.st priority No.1 attacking target by UKR/Nato.
But they (UKR) may have under-estimated the RF in a long-term – even RF had a Lot of losses due to their own Miss-Planning (e.g. its open visible convoys !??) ..
So wait. Struggle Will go a little harder now next days- towards Lieiw etc. now. Or Not

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 17 2023 18:40 utc | 42

FrankDrakman | Jul 17 2023 18:36 utc | 39
“The British did hang nets in Scapa Flow, where the Home Fleet was based. German U-boats penetrated them and sunk the battleship Royal Oak.”
There were no nets in the Kirk Sound, just some old block ships left over from WWI. U-47 maneuvered past these.
It’s comical how the Yes-men are reduced to proclaiming that hanging a few nets is beyond the intellectual and physical capabilities of the Russians.
Of course what’s truly disgusting is that any shipping is still allowed to proceed to and from Odessa at all.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 18:48 utc | 43

Blissex–If you think the US could rapidly ramp up production of war materials or recruitment of real soldiers, you are dreaming…The US exported most of its heavy industry, and currently has neither the factories, resources, or work force to do so…And the female, tranny and minority ridden US military is having great difficulty recruiting qualified boys to serve..Why would you, when you know all of the above will be exempted from PT, yet will receive promotion before qualified white men…

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 17 2023 18:48 utc | 44

They can build a billion dollar bridge for cars and a railroad across several miles of water, yet you seem dumbfounded about how to hang a few nets. The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2, yet you act as if such a basic thing is beyond the ability of mankind. Why is that.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:06 utc | 25
I didnt ask you if you believed they could do it. How can you believe they can do it if you can’t even define what it is they would need to do it?
Just a few nets? How deep? Across the entire strait? How strong? Something that could not have a hole blown through it before the drone bypasses. How would they hold it in place?
Are you imagining a nylon net, or chain? Would it be held by an entire new set of pilons across the entire straight, or are you imagining some kind of string of enormous armored buoys to both hold up the weight of their own chains, and the weight of the entire net? What would guard the buoys. Sink one, and a gap again appears in the net.
Perhaps sharks with laser beams attached to their heads that shoot torpedoes from there mouths is a better solution.
Or were you thinking they need to simply click on their engineers, and once enough khyber crystals are collected, the net will materialize for +5 against underwater attack?

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 18:52 utc | 45

To be fair to the guy here’s the same routine from an other competition where Klimov does a lot better.
https://youtu.be/l4j5zwl_xrE

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 17 2023 18:52 utc | 46

Posted by: fnord | Jul 17 2023 18:11 utc | 27
‘…The value of the social network is decreasing as new management has allowed right-wing disinformers and trolls to run amok, especially on the oddly titled “for you” tab. ..´
They want you to think in terms of ‘left’ and ‘right’. .Gov ‘left’ and ‘right’ are controlled by the same people.

Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 17 2023 19:00 utc | 47

Short of going into open conflict with NATO, obviously what’s needed now is regime change in Kiev. Zelensky, Zaluzhy, all Ukraine’s government and officer corps, all of these high-value targets need to be eliminated….
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17

The Ukrainian Civil War is a mere sideshow. Ending Washington‘s ability to fund this war selling cheap
Debt is what ends this global war. That’s why De-dollarization is the critical variable.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 19:01 utc | 48

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 19:03 utc | 49

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17
Excellent question. Zelensky and his entourage are no doubt in bunkers and covered by security teams when they travel. But more to the point, why spend resources on them when there are many “soft” targets out there?
It is a mystery to me why Russia has not sent kill squads across the soft borders of the West, to make the war personal with some directors of corporate MIC whores.
Heads of the weapons manufacturers, family members, etc. are all easy targets for some mob land style executions.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 19:03 utc | 50

This sea drone must have started somewhere. Must have been dropped in the water in some place. Where would that have been? What’s the range of this drone? Not too long, I would think. I find it hard to believe that it came from Odessa and traveled all around Crimea. Any thoughts?

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 17 2023 19:07 utc | 51

Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 18:48 utc | 43
Yes that did indeed happen….once. Other than that one incident, of which I remember reading the book by submarine commander Gunter Preen about the attack which I would recommend as it was highly entertaining, those nets seemed to work pretty well for the entirety of WW1 and WW2.
I swear you people seemed really pissed that simple me could have thought of such a thing as net to protect the bridge. Sorry my logic seems so disruptive to your psyches.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 19:07 utc | 52

The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2, yet you act as if such a basic thing is beyond the ability of mankind. Why is that.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 18:06 utc | 25
In which history?
Well, “Scapa Flow” means something to you? Or which British people do you mean?
The terrorism problem can only be solved by eradicating the source. Protective measures can only ever provide temporary protection to a certain extent. For this purpose it is necessary to control not only the Ukrainian territory, in the structures of which the local forces of the US government have eaten like cancer. At the very moment attempts are being made to withdraw Azerbaijan and Armenia from the Russian friendship…
Russia has demonstrated in Chechnya how to fight terrorism effectively. Today, however, it is not ideological terrorism, but flawless value freedom.

Posted by: 600w | Jul 17 2023 19:10 utc | 53

UWDude | Jul 17 2023 18:52 utc | 45
I’m sorry you feel the task is too difficult for Russian engineers to figure out. I figure if you can build the bridge, you can likely build a net to protect it. Personally I would suggest to them that it be made of steel and be weighted so that it doesn’t shift around. Doesn’t seem to be all that complicated, at least to me…..
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 19:03 utc | 49
You’ve built anti drone sea nets before? Or is what you consider simple irrelevant because you dont actually know anything about which you speak?
Steel nets, heavy, 15 kms worth, huge buoys. Very expensive project, both to build and upkeep. Probably cheaper to repair areas of the bridge that are attacked.
Did the Russian leadership not think of underwater attack? Perhaps, or perhaps they are also aware of many other forms as well. Perhaps their patrols/ sonar are inefficient,
An attack did get through, that could have been stopped, and Russia must learn and adapt.
But a giant net…. No. Just not feasible or economic.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:11 utc | 54

Question:
Barflies – assume open naval warfare between NATO and the RF in the Black Sea. Does anyone have insight to the various assets NATO has in the Blsck Sea ? Romania ?
I guess there is a US carrier group in the Eaaten Med which could bring in Air power, plus Incerlik.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 19:13 utc | 55

Good read by BMA.
It explains various scenarios on the extension of the war, it explains Turkey’s position and financial issues. Also take note that Turkey stabs Nato 5 times and Russia one time in the back, in that cycle.
Ukraine will be used till the end of the year and thrown away like the used c#ndom it is. Why extending the war is bad. It also discusses the real reason on cluster munitions and why US delayed them as long as possible. Because Russia has far, far larger stockpiles which will be even more devastating for AFU.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/nato-summit-and-further-geopolitical

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 19:14 utc | 56

Well IMO the last kerch bridge bombing was a Russian False flag. However perhaps it was the Uke.
If the bridge was bombed and could have been defended. Then clearly the Russians set a trap ……this is what they wanted. It gives them a perfect excuse for the next stage of operations.

Posted by: WRFB | Jul 17 2023 19:16 utc | 57

To expound on my reply to Intelligent Dasein, @50, there is a fundamental problem Russia needs to solve.
The people enabling, goading, and enticing Zelensky and his regime to sacrifice endless young Ukrainian men, for zero or trivial territorial gains, have no skin of their own in the game.
Zee and his gang, they actually do have some skin in the game. We joke about his South Beach condo and such, but there is a substantial chance he gets dusted one of these days. It could be by his own handlers, if he outlives his usefulness- see Epstein, Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein.
But the heads of big weapons production titans, they don’t have any skin in this game. They sleep well at night. Nor do any of the political clowns in the UK, US, or Germany have to worry about their sons coming home with their legs blown off. Or getting a bullet in their craniums, while dining with their friends.
To solve a problem like this, Russia will have to adapt. We shall see if this hypothetical scenario develops into a real one.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 19:25 utc | 58

Barflies – assume open naval warfare between NATO and the RF in the Black Sea. Does anyone have insight to the various assets NATO has in the Blsck Sea ? Romania ?
I guess there is a US carrier group in the Eaaten Med which could bring in Air power, plus Incerlik.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 19:13 utc | 55
Not sure I can see any major naval kick-off in the Black Sea. Incirlik is within hypersonic range, plus there’s a wider question over relationships between Greece and Turkiye being an ongoing vulnerability in NATO’s south-eastern flank.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 19:27 utc | 59

Regards bridge bombing
The drone that attacked it could float or submerge. Presumably it could float over a net, so the barrier would have to block surface traffic as well, which is not practical.
Russia has been shooting down all the missles fired at it for a long time now. Using the fancy submarine drone was probably plan B to get at it. Checks on drivers is probably quite tough now
Russias solution to this is ai automation. They need hundreds of cameras feeding video to a data center that can run real time object identification coupled with another boat drone to drive to it for a closer inspection.
Given the work with ai enhanced targeting on the lancet I expect something will be coming soon.
In the meantime it’s war and the enemy gets a vote too. So let’s give russia a break here. They can stop most of the attacks but it’s something new all the time. War is about casualties, insisting on none is a mindset of defeat.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 17 2023 19:28 utc | 60

exile @55
Incirlik too far away, would need kc 135 flying from Rumania to get them near covering naval assets in Black Sea.
same places kc fly from would also sortie 100+ f-15, and a few f-22 to get refueled and help cover naval assets.
scarcity of runways fuel etc to cover naval ops in black.
cvn carriers will stay in med farther away than incirlik! f-18 need more refueling!
by treaty turkey can’t let combatants thru bosporus
anywhere land based can touch navy they need f-15 style air cover large numbers, 24/7
same f-15 coverage needed to send f-16, which why usaf not pushing a few old Dutch aircraft.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 17 2023 19:29 utc | 61

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 19:14 utc | 56
good one thanks 🙂

Posted by: Macpott | Jul 17 2023 19:32 utc | 62

Aleks on BMA mentioned an additional interesting piece of detail.
European governments would like to declare some sort of martial law. European industries are nearly their maximum peace time capacity and they are inquired how they could expand in case of martial law.

I know personally that the military industry of the big European countries is running currently at its maximum peacetime capacity. Moreover, it is tasked with elaborating possibilities to expand its capacities on short notice if war or martial law or whatever is declared. Those steps would give the governments the power to direct industrial production.
In fact, the European governments want to do it now, but private industry is refusing investment into capacity expansion unless there are long-term, take-or-pay contracts to utilize these capacities after the war in Ukraine is concluded and/or the stockpile orders are filled.
NATO just updated its “defense” doctrine against Russia. Which is essentially the same as in the cold war. In case of a crisis or war, SACEUR gets command over Europe as a whole. Its military, industry etc. Everything. What is SACEUR? The Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Nice fun fact, SACEUR is always an American general.
In case of war/crisis NATO (US) takes over the European defense industry and dictates what to produce, how and with what.
What I want to say is next year we will not only be closer to WW3, but the pressure on the private military industry will have increased manifold and there is a possibility that some kind of “light” war-footing like in Russia could be realized. I think the war should be concluded before we reach that point.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 19:33 utc | 63

Forgot to add, there is also the issue of air cover for any NATO-provoked silliness in the Black Sea.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 19:34 utc | 64

Who’s to say this was a one off attack on the bridge?
Who’s to say ther won’t be another tonight? then another and another.
Russia needs to be proactive on this not reactive.
I only mention this becouse no one else has.
It’s important.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jul 17 2023 19:34 utc | 65

#48 ” The Ukrainian Civil War is a mere sideshow. Ending Washington‘s ability to fund this war selling cheap
Debt is what ends this global war. That’s why De-dollarization is the critical variable.”
Spot on Zanon.

Posted by: canuck | Jul 17 2023 19:34 utc | 66

1 thing that I learned also from this blog but from everything what happened
russians are really only understandable for russians
anything else – well armchair generals 🙂

Posted by: Macpott | Jul 17 2023 19:37 utc | 67

It’s comical how the Yes-men are reduced to proclaiming that hanging a few nets is beyond the intellectual and physical capabilities of the Russians.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 18:48 utc | 43
A few nets can cover the span of 15 kms? Oh, a few 5000 meter nets. Simple.
How long would it take to manufacture and place them?
Would the nets be of any use once the war is over, or a huge headache and disaster waiting to happen in storms?
What if Russia plans on controlling the Black Sea in the at least year it would take to manufacture and install 15000 x 20m worth of net and buoys?
Once installed, you have a big, useless static defense.
Resources are always better geared towards mobile and ranged weapons. The net is a ridiculous idea.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:39 utc | 68

UWDude | Jul 17 2023 18:52 utc | 45
At first you question even the possibility of a net being constructed. But then you become an instant engineer as well as expense analyst.
Impressive.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 19:40 utc | 69

Who’s to say ther won’t be another tonight? then another and another.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jul 17 2023 19:34 utc | 65
Who is going to run out first? Ukraine, with their missiles and drones, or Russia, with their steel and concrete?
I think, after tonight, Ukraine will be too busy replacing their air raid warning sirens, worn out from over-use, to consider any further attacks in the near future…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 19:43 utc | 70

At first you question even the possibility of a net being constructed. But then you become an instant engineer as well as expense analyst.
Impressive.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 17 2023 19:40 utc | 69
Being a critic is easy. It is even easier to be the critic of a critic.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:43 utc | 71

If the USA were to “start anything serious” they would switch to mass production of simpler, more effective stuff, and they would rapidly get rid of their “parquet generals” too, just as they did in WW1 and WW2, ramping up pretty fast.
Posted by: Blissex | Jul 17 2023 18:12 utc | 28
They’d transform all the obese low-IQ weedsmoker creeps into healthy greek gods, like snapping shut an umbrella! They’d have thousands of factories full of singing workers, chugging out millions of crates of missiles! They’d make the F-16 take off of a mound of gravel. They’d pause the federal reserve money printing press just because they’re that good! Pfizer would make vaccines to save lives and kermit and monsanto would churn out nutritious and oh-so-delicious rations! They’d stop corruption, spare the two million trafficked children per year, and ramp up their morals pretty fast! Even the rothchilds would become jerry seinfelds. Because the USA is that exceptional. The USA that we all know and love!

Posted by: Mike | Jul 17 2023 19:50 utc | 72

Just imagine, a tweet from Messrs Peskov or Medvedev announcing an Invitation To Tender for the design and construction of another Kerch Strait crossing.
Western companies would be able to to bid, as long as their ‘free and democratic©’ governments allow them to…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 19:52 utc | 73

Posted by: Mike | Jul 17 2023 19:50 utc | 72
Dylan Mulvaney and Caitlin Jenner would adorn their bombers in pin up poses. “Remember what you are fighting for, boys, girls, gays, queers, trans-queers and otherkin!”
Gruff bull dykes would ask their. Non binary brigade if they were men or pussies, and nobody would know the answer.
Everytime a unit was sent to the front, it would be pulled back until allegations of discrimination were investigated thuroughly.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:55 utc | 74

Kerch bridge bombed again with British bomb like in previous time . No body is talking about killing English spies and it’s HQ in London ?why?
That is why 3rd rate country of pirate English dare show strength before supper power Russia.
Pugin is frauds and impotent.

Posted by: Sam | Jul 17 2023 19:56 utc | 75

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 19:33 utc | 63
On the topic of martial law in Europe, that would work perfectly to impose their “great reset”. If there are plans for engineered money system collapses, internet collapses or purges, turbo-lockdowns, intentional famine, or the WHO force-vaccination genocide, all of that becomes orders of magnitude easier when you already have military (preferably american) at every corner under the pretence of security.

Posted by: Mike | Jul 17 2023 20:00 utc | 76

Everytime a unit was sent to the front, it would be pulled back until allegations of discrimination were investigated thuroughly.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:55 utc | 74
Don’t forget the micro-aggressions from the drill sergeant…
I’m sure there must be room somewhere inside a B-52 for a safe space…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 20:06 utc | 77

JustAMaverick @ 25
They can build a billion dollar bridge for cars and a railroad across several miles of water, yet you seem dumbfounded about how to hang a few nets. The British seemed to have no problem building them to protect their ships in WW2, yet you act as if such a basic thing is beyond the ability of mankind. Why is that.
Response: JustAMaverick, it looks like some are trying to get you tangled up in the nets. I think your idea of steel nets is worth consideration. The cost of steel nets has to be a lot lower than rebuilding bridges.
Maybe the Russian MOD will read your input and give it some consideration with their engineering department. If we see some steel nets going up at that bridge in the future, we know for sure your idea was worthwhile.

Posted by: young | Jul 17 2023 20:07 utc | 78

The Kerch Strait has a busy shipping channel that cannot be blocked with nets. A drone could perhaps hide beneath a transiting ship to gain access to the area around the bridge. We don’t know how this attack was managed but the bridge does have layered defenses – the exact nature of these is of course secret. I expect there are nets and sonar deployed, but whatever the defenses are they must take into account the local ecology and minimize impacts. We can be sure the bright people designed the defenses and that other bright people figured out how to defeat them, twice now. The Russian side will adjust and the Brits will keep trying new methods. It’s war, after all.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 17 2023 20:09 utc | 79

Kerch strait nets = giant seaweed / ice strainers, depending upon season.
Perhaps they could run the nets across in a huge loop that continuously circulates and collect the megatons of seaweed on either end? I wonder what you could use mountains of seaweed for?

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 17 2023 20:14 utc | 80

What metrics shall we use?
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 17:48 utc | 17

I think I am most interested by how cohesive or disorganised each side is. The Ukrainian side benefits from the embedding of highly motivated groups of bationalists in the administration and the military such as Right-Sector, a population who has been submitted to an effective propaganda campaign for many years and this includes the schools. Additionally the US has micromanaged the Ukrainian administration since after Maiden, forcing the replacement of most influential persons and departments by new younger employees who are easier to manipulate. (Conversation between Aaron Matté and Andrii Telizhenko, July 13, 2023)
Russia has kept most Ukrainian roads and bridges open to traffic. The US controls the UK and NATO and provides Satellite, AWACS and whatever data Ukraibe can use, battle sjimulators, training etc.
The Russian SMO had no impact on that level of cohesion. Whatever Russia removes is being replaced.
Putin practices martial arts himself and he has a lot of self-control. He has shown much spirit and courage by enforcing his red line in 2022. He has learned a lot since then.
I have no idea what Putin is planning next but anything effective should result in reduced mobility of the Ukrainian military and isolation of the oblasts from each other.

Posted by: Richard L | Jul 17 2023 20:16 utc | 81

Putin was given a full report on the damage done, plans to fix it, and what will be done to accommodate all the travelers and cargo. The railway segment is already restored. Here’s the relevant portion about the damage:

The railway part of the bridge is operating normally, with trains running on schedule. One track has minor damage that does not affect the movement of trains. Railway builders conduct a survey to determine the scope of work. Traffic on the road part is still suspended.
Based on the results of a visual inspection of the span supports, it was established that as a result of the terrorist attack, one span of the road section in the direction of Taman was completely destroyed and cannot be restored. Another span-on the second side, in the direction of Kerch-is damaged, there was an axial displacement of 70-80 centimeters, but in general it is supported.
Builders and designers conduct a full-fledged survey, divers work. I can inform you that according to the first preliminary inspections of divers, there are no damage to the supports. This is very good information, meaning we expected the worst, and the supports are in good condition.
We plan to complete the strengthening of the whole damaged support by 24 o’clock in the morning, install a barrier, and partially organize lighting of the bridge. Over the next 24 hours, we plan to fully restore lighting of the bridge, and we will finish all these works by 12 o’clock, Vladimir Vladimirovich.
If everything goes well, we will first launch three-ton test cars, then launch five-ton cars. If there are no unforeseen circumstances, we start to let cars pass through one lane in reverse mode at night. Passengers and drivers in parking lots ask the question, when will we start this, by one o’clock in the morning we will already have the full picture.
Also, we have already started to mobilize builders and designers, bridge crews, specialists from institutes, specialists in carrying out repair work are already coming. In Rostov, special structures are being completed for assembling platforms for enlarged assembly of superstructures. In the Voronezh Region, we have already started manufacturing metal superstructures.
Previously, we plan to restore two-way traffic on one side by September 15, and traffic on the other side – by November 1.
Previously, we understand that we will have to build a temporary bridge for 250 linear meters, along which we will carry out work, since approaches by floating cranes are impossible, since the support is located between the road and railway parts. The deadlines will be finalized as soon as the design and estimate documentation is ready.
A number of decisions were made to organize traffic along an alternative land route through the territories of new regions – passing through checkpoints without checking documents and when leaving the Crimea and the Rostov region, and maximally reducing the time for checking at the entrance to the Crimea and the Rostov region. [My Emphasis]

IMO, this is a bad situation for Russia as all those stranded people make a very juicy target for the Nazis who will want to employ their new SCALP missiles. Putin said the following about Russia’s reply:
“Of course, there will be a response from Russia. The Ministry of Defense is preparing relevant proposals.”
I posted part of Dugin’s response on the previous thread where he calls for Ukraine to be treated like a rabid dog and Russia put onto a full war footing, including another mobilization and cancelling of elections. A hefty percentage of the Russian public will share those suggestions, although the cancelling of elections goes too far, IMO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 17 2023 20:18 utc | 82

the pessimist@79….war, not even close, it’s a SloMo, with the conflict confined to a ring, really smart people will keep kicking the legs out from beneath the bridge, how long before UKUS navel vessels start lining up to take pot shots at it. And if they did what would Russia do, paint a bigger red line. The destruction of Russia and it’s assets is endless for NATO, money, no problem, it gets printed from thin air, and no matter how thin the air the printer still makes magic. Just don’t see any reason for US UK to stop poking Russia until Russia pokes them out side of the Ukraine….can it?
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 17 2023 20:23 utc | 83

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2023/
I don’t recall that anyone has posted a population pyramid for Ukraine. So much of what is available on a google search is utter garbage for demographics ( a fertility rate of 1.93? Really?)
However, the pyramid looks weird. 20 ish yr old Ukrainians hardly exist at all. I guess the women ran away. No wonder their army looks like they’re pushing middle age.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 17 2023 20:27 utc | 84

From Ukrainian media: 17 july- at 22:27 gmt
EXPLOSIVES ARE SEARCHED FOR IN KYIV IN EMERGENCY HOSPITAL – KLITSCHKO
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reports that law enforcement officers have inspected the premises of the emergency hospital due to reports of its bomb threats.
“Due to reports of bomb threats, emergency hospitals evacuated almost 250 patients and more than 200 medical workers,” Klitschko said in Telegram.
Dog handlers also work on the territory of the medical institution.
https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/u-kijevi-v-likarni-shvidkoji-dopomohi-shukajut-vibukhivku-klichko.html
Hope nothing will happend.
“More opportunities for false flags we have not tougth about”.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jul 17 2023 20:29 utc | 85

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 19:14 utc | 56
Yes, good analysis by BMA, thanks for the link.
What is written there agree with my view that the West and NATO are the party with the least resolve and so the war will end by the West leaving Ukraine to nature’s own devices. BMA thinks it will be in November.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 17 2023 20:43 utc | 86

apologies–I slipped this comment on free speech suppression into the wrong thread . ..
Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 17:27 utc | 8
very important slip- keep this info coming- this is crucial information for all of us
Thanks

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jul 17 2023 20:43 utc | 87

UWDude | Jul 17 2023 19:39 utc | 68
“A few nets can cover the span of 15 kms? Oh, a few 5000 meter nets. Simple.
How long would it take to manufacture and place them?…
What if Russia plans on controlling the Black Sea in the at least year it would take to manufacture and install 15000 x 20m worth of net and buoys?”
In 1917 the US Navy Department seriously proposed sealing off the North Sea with the “Northern Barrage”, 230 miles of nets ranging to depths of 300 to 900 feet, festooned with half a million mines. Contracts were awarded and, although the war ended before the nets were laid, 70000 mines were laid over the 230X30 mile field, at three depths down to 240′. Given a longer war, they would’ve gone much further toward the grandiose idea. Compared to that, an infinitely more modest barrier across this narrow, shallow strait in 2023 ought to be a piece of cake.
And yes, Russia does need to secure control of the entire Black Sea.
“Resources are always better geared towards mobile and ranged weapons.”
You don’t want Russia to use those with any agency or initiative either. It’s funny how the term “concern troll” is brainlessly thrown around here. The worst kind of concern troll, of course, is the kind that says things like, “Russia has to win this war and will win this war, BUT NOT YET! DON’T DO ANYTHING YET!” Somehow the time’s never quite right to actually DO any of the things that need to be done. Especially, the time is never now.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 20:44 utc | 88

It must be the former SOE-“detonation concept”, since 1940, that never goes out of style.
-” Set Europe ablaze ! “, said Churchill, the showman on the beach, “the masters of double play”. First they hijacked 4 Swedish destroyers, June 1940, to Scapa Flow, a deliverance from Italy, they destroyed the machinery before they were released, in April the British spy Beach was disclosed, and even the Rickman gang, trying to blow Oxelösund´s cranes for iron ore.
July 1941, they blow a German munition train in Krylbo, in September 3 Swedish destroyers
caught fire, unknown reason, most credible British sabotage, spring 1942, the Unilever man Henry M. Threlfall (SOE)(diplomat) planned new train sabotage, the Blackman gang, but was disclosed, and Threlfall must leave in a hurry, png. So many years of British warfare in the dark, all the Ukrainian sabotage plots, are probably orchestrated from Britain, that’s what they can offer, but then and now, not that decisive actions of the war.

Posted by: Reader | Jul 17 2023 20:50 utc | 89

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 17 2023 17:17 utc | 5
I think it’s a tandem warhead, first clears away any reactive armour or ad-hoc spaced armour, the second then has a ‘free’ run, so to speak, to attack the main armour array. Developed by the West to deal with the BV variants of Russian MBT’s, it adds weight to a platform, suggesting the Lancet has a more powerful engine. The thermobaric charge would be similar to an RPO projectile, easily capable of collapsing small structures and devastating in confined areas, such as bunkers. I’m pretty sure I’ve seen visual evidence of Lancets with top attack capabilities, but the footage is often degraded for OPSEC, so not 100% certain.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 17 2023 21:15 utc | 90

Now that the grain deal is dead, the Black Sea can be turned into a floating sea mine estuary.
This will prevent further terrorist attacks, bust all Ukie ships cheaply and cut off NATO activity there even if Turkey tries to be adventurous.
Ukies are waiting for the retaliation. It should be delayed for a week and launched when they least expect it.

Posted by: Jason | Jul 17 2023 21:18 utc | 91

“Ukies are waiting for the retaliation. It should be delayed for a week and launched when they least expect it.”
And that’s the wrong way. Retaliation must come immediately. And it has to be so massive, that it totally overshadows the cause of the retaliaton. The rule must be: You damage our bridge, we’ll reduce your capital to rubble. And everybody involved in the bridge bombing must end up in the morgue.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 17 2023 21:26 utc | 92

Lightning Hit Two Transformers In Lviv
The city’s mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, reported a lightning strike and possible consequences. According to local media, electricity was cut off in some neighborhoods.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 17 2023 21:29 utc | 93

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 17 2023 21:29 utc | 93
That’s the trouble with Storms, they can cast a long Shadow…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 21:41 utc | 94

The Ukraine‘s population pyramid
A worthless exercise since there hasn’t been a census in at least 2 decades, plus only around 12 million people now live in Kiev gov’t controlled areas

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 21:45 utc | 95

Re Sea drones – EW/Jamming + nets/chains or even protective cages around individual spans (Remember torpedo nets on ships)? Russia will improvise to meet the challenges.
Re Generals – They will always come and go. KIA/assassinations, combat/physical/mental fatigue or simply not up to the assigned tasks.
Re Clobber list – Reminds me of the Vietnam era Body bag matrix and the “war on drugs”. Now, young boys below the ages of 17 are being sent to the meat grinder.
Cin-Cin!

Posted by: Suresh | Jul 17 2023 21:47 utc | 96

Re: anti-Torpedo nets
In the late 1970s there were serious discussions of placing a mine barrage from Greenland to Norway. I recall the cost-benefit was the mine barrage would cost less than building one destroyer.
There was a lengthy Scientific American article on the topic. Maybe a Barfly can find a link….

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 21:50 utc | 97

@87 Paul from Norway
Thanks very much. PS to my post at #7
Judge Doughty’s analysis and conclusions were then trashed (reported Friday, July 14).
“A federal appeals court Friday temporarily paused a lower court’s [Doughty’s] order limiting executive branch officials’ communications with social media companies about controversial online posts.”
“Administration lawyers said the order was overly broad and vague, raising questions about what officials can say in conversations with social media companies or in public statements. They said Doughty’s order posed a threat of ‘grave’ public harm by chilling executive branch efforts to combat online misinformation.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/media/2023/07/14/id/1127188/
This statement is “malinformation”—a deliberate pretense that Biden admin censorship is nothing but protection of the public–meaning ALL criticism of the administration is suspect; the only correct view is what government officials say it is.

Posted by: botete | Jul 17 2023 21:55 utc | 98

Posted by: Sergei | Jul 17 2023 18:19 utc | 33
You are one backward fuck. Home schooled? Fuck you and your religion, all religions.

Posted by: horseguards | Jul 17 2023 22:04 utc | 99

Sorry if I’ve missed it, but Putin said civilians were killed and I can’t find how many. Does anyone know how many lost their lives on the bridge?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 17 2023 22:05 utc | 100

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