Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 16, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-169

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Brian Berletic’s latest is out at The New Atlas with a sane perspective on the bridge attack:
Ukraine’s Recent Attack on the Crimean Bridge & Why it Doesn’t Matter
Indeed, the response should be proportional.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 11:23 utc | 201

Mushroom @199:
Fentanyl is the cheap heroin for the masses… the plebes. The Hunter Bidens of world don’t do that shit, just like they wouldn’t slum it drinking rotgut like Mad Dog when they could be sipping a fine single malt. Doing Fentanyl is like getting drunk by swigging cheap food-grade ethanol from a 55gal drum. The world’s “beautiful people” don’t slum it like that. They spend premium dollars for “artisanal” heroin. Lots of money to be made there.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 17 2023 11:24 utc | 202

Exactly how in technical means would USA return to Afghanistan? Just flying in? What would be the explanation? Some explanation would certainly be needed.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 17 2023 11:25 utc | 203

UK Defence Secretary (Minister for War) Ben Wallace says he will step down as defence secretary at the next cabinet reshuffle after four years in the job.
Let’s see if Tobias Ellwood gets the job. The guy who wants to declare martial law and introduce the draft. Wallace probably left because of people like Ellwood who now push for a full on war with Russia.
They’ll only be regime change in Russia if Putin comes across too soft, as the Russian population are even more furious after another attack on the bridge.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 204

Ishchenko, a former member of the Ukrainian government (under Pres. Kuchma) :
“If another attack on the Crimean Bridge had occurred on the eve or even at the time of the NATO summit in Vilnius, it would be possible to say almost without a doubt that it was organized in the interests of Vladimir Zelensky. The question of Americans’ complicity in this event would then remain open.
However, the bridge came under attack on the morning of the 17th, when Zelensky’s failure at the summit could no longer be hidden, but it was on this day that the deadline for the next extension of the “grain deal” ended. The Russian authorities made it clear that they were not satisfied with the current parameters of the deal, but there was no final answer to the question whether it would be extended.
Previous extensions gave reason to believe that Russia is sufficiently interested in the deal even without the access to the world markets of Russian grain and fertilizers. Generally speaking, even now, only the re-connection of Rosselkhoz Bank to SWIFT was put forward as a non-negotiable condition. That is, the deal appeared to be was possible.
At the same time, from the very moment of signing the deal, the US and Britain have been doing everything possible to break it off ahead of schedule, or at least to make Russia to refuse to extend it. The demonstrative use of the grain corridor for attacks by unmanned boats both on the Sevastopol base and on fleet ships has begun last year and never ended. The grain corridor was also used by saboteurs of the MoD of Ukraine. When Russia announced the suspension of the implementation of the deal last year, the Americans openly rejoiced:
The USA itself is one of the leading traders of agricultural products and sabotaging the Ukrainian grain sale automatically raises the price of American grain. Of course, the US could not block its ally’s trade. But if Russia withdraws from the deal, then Russia is to blame.
Btw, the demarche of the Eastern European American puppets, who have obtained from the European Commission a ban on the import of Ukrainian grain into their territory, would have been impossible without the tacit consent of the US. Of the 5 countries that initiated the ban, only Hungary allows itself independence in foreign policy (within reasonable limits). Bulgaria is afraid to even breathe without American permission. Nevertheless, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria are now demanding another extension of the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products into their territory, which practically interrupts grain exports from Ukraine on land. Russia’s refusal to extend the “grain deal” will finally bury these exports.
Who is interested in the deal, besides Russia and Ukraine? Erdogan.
Americans expect that if such a trump card as the “grain deal” is knocked out of Russia’s hands, providing Turkish flour mills with work, and the country’s budget and Erdogan himself with income, Turkey will be persuaded to provide not only symbolic, but also practical support for Ukraine.
Washington had every reason to worry that Russia could extend the deal at the last moment. Therefore, a blow was struck in the most sensitive place — on the Crimean Bridge.
This is a sacred structure associated with the first successes and hopes of the Crimean Spring, a symbol of Russian technological power and Russia’s return to its ancestral lands. Extending the “grain deal” after the strike will be too risky from the point of view of public reaction. In the end, the loss of the trust of its own people is a hundred times more dangerous for the Russian government than all possible grievances of Erdogan.
Besides, there’s a purely military component of attack as well. The Crimean Bridge is a bottleneck of the most important transport artery of the Russian army. It is especially important from the point of view of uninterrupted provision of troops in the Zaporozhye direction.
After his failure at the NATO summit, Zelensky needs a victory. When the summit ended and the expectation of a major provocation has subsided — one cannot be on high alert constantly — the bridge was hit not when it was convenient for Zelensky, but when it was convenient for the Americans.
However, Washington politicians will give the Ukrainians all the “glory” of organizing this strike, even if they are responsible for it. Washington is not even against Zelensky using this attack to tout the success of his ‘offensive.’ However, the US and its European partners no longer believe in the APU’s ability to successfully advance, even if the Crimean Bridge disappeares altogether. Therefore, the Americans are trying to push Zelensky’s Ukraine to inflict maximum damage to Russia, and then, “five minutes before midnight”, when the fate of the regime is finally decided, bring to power the “president of the world”, who, instead of Zelensky, could start negotiations with Russia from scratch and save at least something from Ukraine.
Erdogan’s favorable mediation will be very useful for such a “president of the world” as he’ll need someone to convince Russia not to finish off Ukraine completely , but to sit down at the negotiating table. And in this regard, too, the more Russia has contradictions with Erdogan and the less they have in common, the better off the Americans are.”
Comments appreciated.

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205

Way I see it. Ben Wallace told Zaluzhny not to do anything stupid as Ukraine is losing and the West is,struggling to resupply Ukraine with equipment and weapons. Avoid even more escalation at all costs during this time.
Zaluzhny goes on this massive rant over the weekend about Crimea and nobody tells Ukraine what they can and can’t do. Attack the bridge.
Wallace resigns and an even bigger psychopath Tobias Ellwood gets the job.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 11:37 utc | 206

William Gruff | Jul 17 2023 11:24 utc | 202
While having the reputation for a good high, I am not sure heroin is top of the line when it comes to gourmet opiates but then I am not too much of an expert on this.

Posted by: Mushroom | Jul 17 2023 11:37 utc | 207

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
Comments appreciated.
None, other than this is the most rational analysis of the situation I’ve encountered thus far and probably the best reasoning for why Putin should indeed extend the grain deal, if he wants to stick it to the Anglo-Zionist Empire.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 11:38 utc | 208

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
Comments appreciated.
“Americans expect that if such a trump card as the “grain deal” is knocked out of Russia’s hands, providing Turkish flour mills with work, and the country’s budget and Erdogan himself with income, Turkey will be persuaded to provide not only symbolic, but also practical support for Ukraine. ”
The country’s budget doesn’t need any ” income ” it is not a profit and loss sheet like a household budget or business balance sheet. Households and businesses are ” users ” of the currrncey . The Turkish government are ” issuers” of the currrency.
You have fallen hook line and sinker for the tax payer money myth. Russian exports funds Putin’s war myth.The myth that nation states are like households and businesses and have to earn a profit ( income ) before they can spend.
So you start from the wrong starting point and thus unfortunately “some ” of your analysis is flawed.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 11:49 utc | 209

I don’t know but looking at those photos it doesn’t look like much damage was done to the bridge. One modular span down, which can be easily replaced in a few days, from the stock of spares which we discovered existed the last time.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 17 2023 11:52 utc | 210

Comments appreciated.
Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
About right. Agree with Bungle @208. I see the Kremlin says the deal is now “suspended”. Russian (English language) media seems to be reporting the attack. Always keep the Brits or USA in mind when you get these “No you are NOT going to stop fighting” sort of attacks. The Izzies are very fond of this sort of thing too, they think it is very clever.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 11:53 utc | 211

Zaluzhny goes on this massive rant over the weekend about Crimea and nobody tells Ukraine what they can and can’t do. Attack the bridge.
Wallace resigns and an even bigger psychopath Tobias Ellwood gets the job.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 11:37 utc | 206
Yeah, I noticed that Zaluzhny has started to talk the way Zelenskii does now, since he “recovered”.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 11:57 utc | 212

Russia’s response is to “suspend” the grain deal? How about stomping om the little cockroach who shot the bridge?
So, we’re what, 18 months into this thing, and the “terrorist” government in Kiev is still free to carry out these attacks? You would think Moscow would be a bit more serious about them out. Enough already with the SloMo operation. We need regime change in Kiev now. I can’t believe that little shit, Zelensky, is still walking around and breathing.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 11:59 utc | 213

The Nazi alliance (and I now count Turkey as part of that) will still attempt to maintain the grain corridor without Moscow’s consent.
Therefore l, Moscow must be prepared to sink grain carriers. Only then can it’s verbal withdrawal from the agreement be taken seriously

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 12:01 utc | 214

Slavyangrad shows pictures of young boys who died fighting for Ukraine. This is their future being buried. People commonly feel ‘to the last Ukrainian’ is just feeble hyperbole but Russia must find a way to overcome this Vietnam war situation – since no one will oppose Zelensky.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 17 2023 12:13 utc | 215

Wallace resigns and an even bigger psychopath Tobias Ellwood gets the job.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 11:37 utc | 206
Ellwood hasn’t actually got the job yet, has he. Many a slip twixt cup and lip.

Posted by: laguerrre | Jul 17 2023 12:20 utc | 216

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
Comments appreciated.
This will help osi….
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/04/no-we-dont-need-to-balance-the-books/
Please do not for one second think I am blaming you for falling hook, line and sinker for the tax payer money myth. The $billion Satchi and Satchi Marketing campaign during the Thatcher and Regan years that convinced millions of people that governments are like households and businesses. Was the most successful marketing/ propaganda campaign in human history.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 12:26 utc | 217

It would make sense to shoot those US/UK recon aircraft down. They were within 30km of Crimean coast and within 50km from the bridge. Not only territorial area but they are tied to the attack.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 12:28 utc | 218

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
OK he says this:
>Americans expect that if such a trump card as the “grain deal” is knocked out of Russia’s hands, providing Turkish flour mills with work, and the country’s budget and Erdogan himself with income, Turkey will be persuaded to provide not only symbolic, but also practical support for Ukraine.
and then:
>Erdogan’s favorable mediation will be very useful for such a “president of the world” as he’ll need someone to convince Russia not to finish off Ukraine completely , but to sit down at the negotiating table.
So dragging Erdogan more fully into the NATO camp and obviously therefore pissing-off RF, this will enable Erdogan to more easily persuade RF to do what the US wants it to? ?

Posted by: airstrip1 | Jul 17 2023 12:32 utc | 219

The attack on the Crimean bridge does not serve a military purpose, because Russian troops in Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts are supplied via the land bridge (the DNR).
The attack on the bridge hit a family from Belgorod oblast that was traveling to Crimea for vacations: both parents killed, underage girl injured (video).

Posted by: S | Jul 17 2023 12:34 utc | 220

Posted by: laguerrre | Jul 17 2023 12:20 utc | 216
I hope Tobias Ellwood gets the job, declares martial law and introduces the draft. The UK will be on fire with riots in the streets and the war will be over by Xmas. The draft will be the spark that engulfs all of these psychopaths.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 12:38 utc | 221

The attack on the Crimean bridge does not serve a military purpose, because Russian troops in Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts are supplied via the land bridge (the DNR).
Posted by: S | Jul 17 2023 12:34 utc | 220
It matters a lot in Zelensky-NATO cloud-cockoo land. Where, very soon, Selensky’s men will liberate Melitopol and Mariupol, cutting off the land bridge. With Russia’s supply via the bridge cut off, liberating the coast line followed by all of Crimea will be a walk in the Park.
The only flaw in their thinking: for their next step, the march of the brave Ukrainian army to Moscow and the arrest of Wladimir Putin, Selensky and Stoltenberg will need the bridge. Or maybe not, if they think they can walk on water.

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 17 2023 12:52 utc | 222

The attack on the Crimean bridge does not serve a military purpose, because Russian troops in Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts are supplied via the land bridge (the DNR).

Not only that, but also they failed to take out the rail part of the bridge, so train traffic full of weapons can continue to flow to Crimea.
Beginning to look like a pure terrorist campaign, run by the West. Zelensky doesn’t even have to exist anymore, it can be run directly from London and DC. Just spin up some fake terror group, like the Ukrainian Liberation Army or something. Run it all from Al-Tanf with astroturfed Jihadis.
Russian response to this should not target Kiev. De-energize London or send a volley of Kinhhals straight into Al-Tanf. Better yet, use a tactical nuke so it is contaminated and can never be rebuilt. Shadowbanned is right, the West only understands one thing – ruthless power.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 12:53 utc | 223

The perfect time to behead the snake.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 17 2023 12:55 utc | 224

Posted by: osi | Jul 17 2023 11:27 utc | 205
The correct translation should be “a president of peace” or “peace president”, rather than “president of the world”. The two words “peace” and “world” are the same in Russian, which caused the mix-up.

Posted by: Greg Ulster | Jul 17 2023 13:03 utc | 225

Alastair Crooke today:
A Bonfire of the Vanities
I’m not going to do an excerpt.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 13:07 utc | 226

Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 12:53 utc | 223
Shadowbanned is never right. If they (because they are a sockpuppet being run from a military boiler room by whoever’s on duty this week, not because they deserve the slightest dignity as a person of gender) were actually right they wouldn’t need to cleverly swap international characters into their name to get around users’ filters.

Posted by: Concerned Citizen | Jul 17 2023 13:13 utc | 227

A request of help from fellow barflies:
There was a commenter last week who posted an excellent link to a piece detailing how the USAID funds are directly propping up Ukraine’s sovereign debt (bonds.) I somehow forgot to thank her, it may have been Mary but I could be wrong.
Can someone please re-link or send the thread?
Thanks!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 13:13 utc | 228

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 12:26 utc | 217
Well yes, govts could create money without debt. But there are two problems (I am going off piste here so I might be wrong)
1. I understood the Maastrict Treaty to ban govts from creating money without creating debt through banks. The banks run the world and they have no intention of rooting up their magic money tree…?
2. There must be a way to destroy the money created or it will obviously lead to rampant inflation. The way it is done is to spend the money into existence, then collect the money back through taxes to destroy it. This is a necessary and perfectly just and sensible step.

Posted by: Tim | Jul 17 2023 13:16 utc | 229

Kerch Bridge damage
@Rybar has published photographs of the damage to the Kerch Bridge (with awful “BAZA” watermarks). One span has been dislodged and collapsed from one end. The other span may be slightly bent or shifted. The collapsed span is on the eastward heading driveway, between the railway and the westward driveway.
It may be possible to repair the collapsed span in place. After last year’s truck bomb attack, Russia fabricated and replaced five spans of the bridge. In this part of the bridge the steel spans seem to be standard size and length. It is possible that Russia has already prepared some extra spans for the eventual second Ukrainian / British attack.
The site of the attack is the eastern section of the bridge, between Tuzla Island and Russian mainland. I believe this is pre-2022 sovereign Russian territory.
There is speculation on Telegram that the weapon used was a British REMUS 600 autonomous underwater vehicle. If so, this would constitute yet another NATO attack on Russia proper.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 An interesting observation regarding the Crimean Bridge Attacks…
According to Vladimir Rogov, based on the available information (which is difficult to confirm at this stage), the attack on the Crimean Bridge was reportedly carried out using the British maritime autonomous underwater vehicle REMUS 600, equipped with additional explosives. The REMUS 600 has the capability to operate underwater at depths of up to 600 meters and can be easily controlled using a laptop.
The launch of the REMUS 600 was said to have taken place from a civilian vessel in the Black Sea.
Which is interesting because, as @infantmilitario pointed out, the “Joseph Schulte” container ship arrived in Odessa in October 2022 under the flag of Hong Kong.
It is currently docked at the oil harbor of Odessa, specifically at the 4th loading berth designated for loading gas and oil products.
However, reports indicate a lack of infrastructure for container operations in that area.
Given these circumstances, some observers and analysts have speculated that the “Joseph Schulte” container ship may have been utilized as a floating base for drone operations conducted by the Ukrainian Navy and special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO.
Of course, none of this is confirmed, so take it with a grain of salt.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73542

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 17 2023 13:21 utc | 230

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 12:53 utc | 223
>Shadowbanned is right, the West only understands one thing – ruthless power.
Meanwhile, USA hesitates to give ATACAMS to Ukraine because of escalation concerns:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-XlDzvodET0
You pathetic commentators here at MOA aren’t even fighting and yet you have the patience of children. Imagine how Ukrainian soldiers feel when told they can’t have the best USA weapons because USA doesn’t want to offend Russia. At least Russian soldiers don’t have to listen to something like that. Maybe Russian soldiers can’t have nukes or direct attacks on NATO, but they can have everything else Russia has. As for the decision to stay in the east, versus attacking south from Belarus to open a new front, that is not unreasonable for now. The attack from Belarus can wait until Ukraine is weakened.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ex-defense-minister-explains-why-172400990.html

Posted by: Revelo | Jul 17 2023 13:22 utc | 231

Well we knew the US/UK were running spy planes back and forth south of Crimea, not rocket science to expect an attack on the bridge. While Russia can play whack a mole all over the Ukraine, they seem a bit ham strung when it comes to dealing with the main supporters of the Ukraine war effort. Anyone day dreaming about the day the Ukraine collapses….. dreams are fun, free too.
What we see is what is lined up for Russia. Low level conflict, the west can test vonderveapon at will, Russia can blow them up here and there, but as with the bridge, eye pokes a plenty for the poor bear ….there should be laws for cruelty to animals.
I know, Russia this, Russia that…..can’t even take out one highly symbolic Ukie bridge, never mind hinder the flow of arms and Mercs. Year and half later Mercs still showing up at Holiday Camps up and down the front. Right, 3D chess……..SloJokeaMo rolls on. And the dead, they never lie.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 17 2023 13:23 utc | 232

From Oleg Tsarev’s Telegram channel:

Instructions for traveling through the liberated territories:
1. From Crimea, you need a border crossing through Dzhankoy to Melitopol.
2. Refuel the car, withdraw cash. Buy plenty of drinking water.
3. Remember that you are entering the regions, in the north of which hostilities are taking place, in the regions themselves martial law has been introduced.
4. If possible, do not stop in places not equipped for this. Stop at gas stations and cities.
5. Gas stations will be every 50-100 km. Many accept cards. You can have a snack.
6. Along the way you will meet military posts. Do whatever the soldiers say. Do not be rude, do not “swing rights.” At most you will be asked to present documents and show things.
7. Always keep documents nearby.
8. A perfectly smooth new road has been built from the Crimea to the Rostov region.
9. In Melitopol in the city center you can have a delicious lunch and withdraw money.
10. Your way lies through Melitopol, bypassing Berdyansk, then Mariupol and Taganrog. 400 km. 5-6 hours drive.
11. Download offline maps, in case the connection is lost, select manually in the “settings – cellular connection” section.
12. Let the military and cars with symbols of V and Z pass.
13. No need to drive at night.
14. Insurance policies do not work.
15. The road is safe, but vigilance must be maintained constantly.
16. Do not stop outside posts and rest areas.
17. Medical assistance can be requested from the military and the police.
18. Do not enter fields and forests. Do not take pictures of equipment and soldiers of the Russian army.
19. Be polite and calm. In the NWO zone, everything is built on mutual respect and patience.
https://t.me/olegtsarov/7270

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 17 2023 13:31 utc | 233

Speaking of SloJokeaMo’s, this conflict will end similar to the Pakistani/India border dispute, or perhaps the North/South Korean border, heavily mined no man’s land. Lavrov said in order to be secure Russia would need to push NATO long range weapons back even further…..of course he didn’t explain how they would do that nor is there any physical evidence on the ground of such happening…..going to look for my rose coloured glass, if it looks better through them, I’ll let ya’ll know.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 17 2023 13:34 utc | 234

Speaking of SloJokeaMo’s, Aleks at Black Mountain Analysis now says enough is enough, the Go-Slow-SMO strategy has worn out whatever benefits it ever had, and Russia needs to finish the theater war this year. All the Yes-men better head over there and call him a “troll” as well.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/nato-summit-and-further-geopolitical

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 13:54 utc | 235

It’s almost like it’s synchronized groupthink, which does explain NATO performance in this war. The slow bleed is roasting the Western economies. The terrorist strikes are an attempt to rile up Russian popular opinion because Maerica NEEDS Russia to hurry up and finish Ukraine off.
Russia is in no hurry to do so. The West can keep the obnoxious, voracious and big mouthed houseguest a little while longer can’t you? I’m sure there is something more in the NATO pantry to give him for a few more months to continue this pantomime.
The reality is Russia is in control of this war. Yes, terrorism can still occur, but Russia is not going anywhere while the Ukraine will slowly implode..and the West foots ALL the bills.
What’s the debt servicing part of the federal budget of Maerica up to now, 20 percent? Maericas ability to indefinetly support the Ukrainian state is waning and will soon come to an end.
The chickens are coming home to roost.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 17 2023 14:09 utc | 236

The grain deal is dead according to confirmation by Peskov. As you’d expect, the empire lackey’s are immediately shedding crocodile tears for “developing Global South countries”, disregard the fact that they didn’t get much as EU was hoarding most grain.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 14:41 utc | 237

The West is propping up the Ukrainian kleptocracy to keep up appearances, but it is a hole in the pocket. Sure old weaponry to be retired are being upsold instead of written off, however that does not compensate for the gaping, suppurating void inhaling The West’s prosperity. A show government with its parasitic oligarchs, loss of cheap energy for its industry, and cannibalism of each other’s economies is quadrupling the costs of typical proxy war maintenance. Logistics says he who holds the hot potato longest gets burned the worst. 😉 Russia’s plan is, “Easy does it,” and it’s been bearing fruit in Western government instability & population misery.

Posted by: titmouse | Jul 17 2023 14:44 utc | 238

I found the link I was looking for, on direct funding of Ukrainian sovereign debt from DC. To give fair credit, it was from @psychohistorian:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/open-not-ukraine-thread-2023-165.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02b751ab0b05200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02b751ab0b05200c
Thanks, Psychohistorian.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2023 14:46 utc | 239

The Nazi alliance (and I now count Turkey as part of that) will still attempt to maintain the grain corridor without Moscow’s consent.
Therefore l, Moscow must be prepared to sink grain carriers. Only then can it’s verbal withdrawal from the agreement be taken seriously
Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 12:01 utc | 214

They (US) will try to drive their cargo ships into Odessa port anyway. We also know from past occurrences that they shipped fuel and weapons into Odessa the same corridors as the grain deal.
Russia already announced navigation hazards and warnings and rendered itself non-responsible for commercial grain and fuel shipping in that area. They also repeated warnings of drifting Ukrainian naval mines.
That means the shipping is no longer guaranteed voyage, which should mean insurance going through the roof for shipping. Private shipping is now at own responsibility.
We’ll see what happens if / when US or UK navy ships appear in the area.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 14:48 utc | 240

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 14:48 utc | 240
Addendum: one (probably best) solution would be to create a large crater on the location of the Odessa port, docks, cargo handling equipment and storage location, which would solve the issue of weapon shipping once and for all and render the port useless for the duration of SMO.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 14:53 utc | 241

Bemildred no. 226
That was a great book and a great article. Thanks for posting.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 17 2023 14:56 utc | 242

….The slow bleed is roasting the Western economies. The terrorist strikes are an attempt to rile up Russian popular opinion because Maerica NEEDS Russia to hurry up and finish Ukraine off.…
……What’s the debt servicing part of the federal budget of Maerica up to now, 20 percent? Maericas ability to indefinetly support the Ukrainian state is waning and will soon come to an end.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 17 2023 14:09 utc | 236

Well Said
Interest payments are forecast for FY23 to be 20% of Federal Outlays and 28% of Federal Tax income. Strictly speaking – There is no debt servicing because principle is always rolled over.
For FY24, estimates vary, but if average interest in Federal Debt goes to 4% as expected – then interest payments will be (roughly) 30% of Federal Outlays and …..drum roll please….. a whopping 40% of Federal Tax Income.
De-dollarization is what ends this war.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 15:02 utc | 243

Not the most realistic plan:

🇺🇦🤡🏁🇹🇷🌾 Kiev hopes to continue grain supplies via the Black Sea corridor without Russia, waiting for confirmation of readiness from the UN and Turkey – Zelensky’s press secretary.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73558

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 17 2023 15:13 utc | 244

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 17 2023 14:56 utc | 242
It was, or “A Man In Full”; so many ways Tom Wolfe enlightened me about my fellow “Americans”. I’ll never forget the scene with the horse.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 15:19 utc | 245

Membrum Virile | Jul 17 2023 9:20 utc | 180
*** It is attacking a perfectly legitimate target.***
As would be intensive missile attacks on Lvov, London, Washington, Seattle and Berlin.

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 15:25 utc | 246

The elimination/severe injury of someone important in Ukraine is confirmed. A flying ambulance of the specialised airline ASL FLY MED flew to Rzeszów today and spent an hour there.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/55383

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 17 2023 15:28 utc | 247

Re: “ I can’t believe that little shit, Zelensky, is still walking around and breathing.”
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 17 2023 11:59 utc | 213
Yeah, no one can. But seriously, looking at the “West” , even if Zelensky was “gone”… he‘d just he replaced with some other annoying little shit. He’s playing a part, acting out a script. The EU/UK/USA/Canada… even Japan/Australia… they are all annoying little shits that I can’t believe are still walking around breathing. We need to bring back the guillotines and clean all the MF’ers out!
Sadly, only in my imaginings … this is all the smelly rot of corruption to the core of many nations.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 17 2023 15:29 utc | 248

Re the grain deal /bridge revenge.
I agree with unimperator. Destroy all the port facilities in Odessa. Or bring in a hulk or two and sink them, blocking the entrance (classic British tactic) . Or do both – belt and braces.
No ships can then use Odessa.
Every few weeks, check on the port repairs. Bomb them again.
Check. Bomb. Repeat.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 17 2023 15:35 utc | 249

Lev Davidovich | Jul 17 2023 10:07 utc | 187
***… most disastrous Conservative governments in UK history, serving under the serial incompetence of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak***
Serial incompetance would be awful enough, but that was not incompetence.
They *competently* advanced several extremely damaging, overlapping agendas.
All for traitorously ideological, corrupt, and US-imperial / monopoly-capitalist motives.
Not too difficult to do when the alleged “opposition” actually isn’t, and the mass media (including main ‘social media’) is harly anything more than a propaganda relay for the political establishment.
Massive incompetence is also present, no doubt about that. But it also acts as a smokescreen.

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 15:37 utc | 250

tim@229
banks create money when they make a loan, money is uncreated when the loan is written off in default, or the central bank sells the loan and takes the cash out of circulation.
the us’ federal reserve quantitative tightening is meant to take some of the us’ $21 trillion is circulating cash out of the us economy.
because of the virus scam us government debt increased by $6 trillion, all ‘bought’ by the federal reserve.
con artist in the media refuse to allow discussion around inflation coming from money expansion. inflation is a detrimental tax used to harm citizens and business.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 17 2023 15:39 utc | 251

Most likely the grain deal is a rather pointless exercise at this time. Just the 22 vs 21 harvest was down by 40%, 23 will be even worse. The best farmland in Ukraine isn’t in Ukraine anymore, much of what’s left is an active war zone and much of what’s left after that will be problematic because it was irrigated by the destroyed reservoir. Recall that the western portion of Ukraine is not prime agricultural land, mostly growing lower grade feed grains (especially corn). This year Ukrainians planted less and is having difficulty with inputs, which are even more important in those poorer lands of the west than in the prime agricultural areas of the south and southeast. Ukraine likely needs all that it manages to grow this year to get through 2024, because 2024 will probably be worse for the agricultural sector than 2023. Zelensky will export until its gone because Kiev is bankrupt and dependent on either western aid or raising all the prices, taxes and tariffs on the population. A population which simply can’t afford the higher costs.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 17 2023 15:41 utc | 252

Posted by: Ed | Jul 16 2023 15:54 utc | 27
“…We’re history’s actors. . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do….and learn from our stupid mistakes.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Jul 17 2023 15:42 utc | 253

It is time to face the fact the the Turks have got what they can from Russia, this withdrawal marks the end of any ‘friendly’ relations that never actually occured in reality.
I believe a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is now brewing.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 15:44 utc | 254

https://vk.com/wall701885602_82320

Another successful attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimean Bridge was inevitable due to two factors.
The first is political, connected with the policy of “agreements” with Ukraine and its allies, which the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin personally are actively trying to pursue. The “grain deal” allowed Ukraine to launch semi-submersible kamikaze drones from the sea coast near Odessa, as well as from sea cargo ships that provide this deal from the Black Sea. This is also facilitated by a virtual ban on strikes against Ukrainian transport communications, as well as against production facilities involved in the production of Ukrainian Mykola-3 marine drones, as well as against energy facilities that provide these enterprises with energy.
The second factor is military-technical. The Russian army does not have weapons systems capable of successfully combating semi-submersible kamikaze drones. Hundreds of defense industries and research institutes were deliberately destroyed in the largest deindustrialization in world history in 30 years. As a result, thousands of technologies were lost, and in this regard, our lagging behind the advanced countries is already decades.
For a successful fight against semi-submersible kamikaze drones, their timely detection by means of space and aviation technical intelligence is necessary.
But our space grouping is extremely small andthis task is not possible.
Our naval aviation is more dead than alive. In order to timely detect these drones and target strike aircraft at them, it is necessary to provide round-the-clock patrolling of the airspace over the Black Sea by anti-submarine patrol aircraft equipped with modern radar equipment for detecting surface and underwater objects. But according to the open press, we have only 22 obsolete Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft and about 20 Tu-142s in the Northern and Pacific fleets. All of them, in terms of their tactical and technical characteristics, do not meet the requirements of today and are significantly inferior to the modern American Boeing P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft, of which only the United States has 128 and dozens of their allies. Moreover, it is not known will the outdated radar equipment of our Il-38 and Tu-142 be able to provide effective detection of small-sized semi-submersible kamikaze drones. The supply of new anti-submarine aircraft for the Russian army is not even planned.
Another effective means of detecting semi-submersible kamikaze drones are airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS), which easily detect surface sea targets. But even with this we have huge problems. Our nine obsolete A-50 (A-50U) aircraft manufactured in the 1980s, due to their small number, are not capable of meeting all the needs of the Armed Forces, and we do not have the production of new AWACS aircraft.
And without long-range detection of semi-submersible kamikaze drones by technical means, followed by targeting strike aircraft at them, an effective fight against them “on distant frontiers” is impossible.
Only passive means of combat remain – blocking the Kerch Strait with booms, which proved their effectiveness back in the years of the First World War for combating submarines. Judging by today’s attack, they are absent in the Kerch Strait. Why? Is there a large sea traffic from the Black Sea to the Sea of ​​Azov and vice versa in the conditions of war in connection with the entry of the Russian grouping to the coast of the Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov and its transformation into the inland sea of ​​the Russian Federation? Is it really impossible to temporarily completely stop this traffic and thereby secure the Crimean bridge at least from the strikes of semi-submersible kamikaze drones.
I am sure that now among my readers there will be many who will begin to ask the question: “What does Putin have to do with it?”.
I hope most people don’t ask this question.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jul 17 2023 15:45 utc | 255

In response to

De-dollarization is what ends this war.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 17 2023 15:02 utc | 243

Yep! Another month and the BRICS+ hammers another nail or two into the coffin at their August meeting

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 17 2023 15:46 utc | 256

-> Doctor Eleven | Jul 17 2023 14:09 utc | 236
-> Flying Dutchman | Jul 17 2023 13:54 utc | 235
I am pretty much puzzled like everyone else, on why RF didn’t take those airborne ISR assets down near Crimea, but one has to think as with which consequences that might result.
RF has in North Atlantic a surface and an underwater presence, very near North-West coast of UK and between Norway, for some time.
That is why there is such high activity of Typhoons and Hawks, various rotaries over it. It is not just oil rigs taxis. Those RF’s assets must be secured first.
Also in Syria things are very tense, on the ground and in the skies.
Generals that were “fired”, are, in my view, staging for the new reformed army groups West and South. That is why we see big reshuffling, but cannot interpret it unless we have a God’s eye view on it. It is difficult to see it as just one event, and its causalities.
However, I think that now a resolute answer to all RF’s woes is in preparation.
Tonight Putin will address to its Security Council live and on the TV.
I can think of a simultaneous push on the Black Sea dominance, Syrian broom and bin, and a change of mood in the upcoming offensive actions, that RF might be announcing. It is the time to end this in a most cruel and decisive way otherwise the other side will never understand, and will never give up.
I do not expect long moralizing about the grain deal, but a coherent, decent a heads-up and the action that follows. Tonight is not going to be fun in Ukraine, that is for sure. It might be also upping change in Syrian conflict.
Slo-mo is over soon, I dare to think. Maybe I am just too optimistic there.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 15:47 utc | 257

Posted by: Lex | Jul 17 2023 15:41 utc | 252
Since Ukraine doesn’t have much to export anymore, anyway, they could substitute the grain deal with another grain deal. In the new grain deal, Russia can sell all the grain from Novorrossisk and Crimean ports to Turkey at some sort of discount to keep them happy. This will exclude the west from the grain deal entirely.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 15:54 utc | 258

Whatever happened to Russia’s much vaunted acoustic counter artillery spotter, seems like Ukrainian arty is still a factor in this conflict, particularly with the complaints of a lack of counter battery work by Russian commanders.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Jul 16 2023 22:53 utc | 99
Yes you are a Johnnycomelately, aren’t you? Its called Penicillin 1B75. It is fully functional and highly effective, some superb video of Ukrainian mortars firing off and getting hit moments later by Russian counter battery fire. Try a bit of research and get your facts straight.

Posted by: madmarc | Jul 17 2023 15:55 utc | 259

But seriously, looking at the “West” , even if Zelensky was “gone”… he‘d just he replaced with some other annoying little shit.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 17 2023 15:29 utc | 248
So? Remove the new puppet. And then another one. “it’s just an actor” logic is the same as saying a killer should never be arrested because it was his gun that killed another person. A better question is why Russia fights only inside Russia, not even at the border. Still stuck in Donbass or Belgorod in medieval artillery duels. What’s the problem? The abramoviches won’t allow it?

Posted by: rk | Jul 17 2023 15:56 utc | 260

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 15:44 utc | 254
I believe a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is now brewing.
I wonder if they’ll invoke Article 5. Even if not, will NATO feel compelled to come to Turkey’s aid or lose a key component of NATO … ?
In any case, it will be an extremely stupid act on Turkey’s part considering how well their (Ottoman) previous wars against Russia have gone.
I see history repeating itself.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 15:56 utc | 261

Well, looking at today’s ‘clobber list’ it seems that a bit of minor vandalism to a bridge has had no military impact whatsoever: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12473200@egNews

The AFU continued unsuccessful attempts at offensive actions in Donetsk and Krasny Liman directions.
In Donetsk direction, as a result of coordinated and courageous actions by units of the Yug Group of Forces, aviation and artillery, 13 enemy attacks have been successfully repelled close to Berestovoye, Belogorovka, Kurdyumovka, Pervomaiskoye and Maryinka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, ammunition depots of the Liman Operational-Tactical Group, the 53rd Mechanised Brigade and the 25th Airborne Brigade of the AFU have been destroyed close to Novoyegorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Kramatorsk and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 320 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, one Msta-B howitzer, two Rapira anti-tank guns, and one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.
In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems launched attacks on AFU units near Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Terny, Yampolovka and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Two enemy attacks have been repelled close to Chervonaya Dibrova and Karmazinovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The activities of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been disrupted close to Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer.
In South Donetsk direction, as a result of active actions by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces, AFU manpower and hardware have been defeated close to Urozhaynoye and Levadnoye (Zaporozhye region).
In Zaporozhye direction, as a result of coordinated actions by Russian troops, enemy manpower and hardware concentration areas have been hit close to Marfopol, Novosyolovka, Shcherbaki and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region).
In addition, the actions of one Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group have been disrupted close to Charivnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 240 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, three Msta-B howitzers, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer.
One ammunition depot of the AFU 33th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed near Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region).
In Kupyansk direction, as a result of active action by units, aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the Zapad Group of Forces, AFU units have been hit close to Novosyolovskoye and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Sinkovka and Ivanovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 35 Ukrainian servicemen, four armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one D-20 howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, eight motor vehicles, one Verba multiple-launch rocket system and one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 73 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 68 areas.
One fuel depot for the military hardware of the Liman Operational-Tactical Group has been destroyed near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Air defence facilities have intercepted three Storm Shadow cruise missiles and three HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.
In addition, 19 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed close to Zaliman, Ploshchanka, Shipilovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Vodyanoye, Nikolskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Removka, Lyubimovka (Zaporozhye region) and Korsunka (Kherson region).
In total, 455 airplanes, 242 helicopters, 5,047 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,731 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,139 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,487 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,717 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

The gleefully gloating trolls need to work out if Ukraine is going to run out of missiles before Russia runs out of concrete and steel…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 15:57 utc | 262

@ Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 13:07 utc | 226
Allister Crooke is very rational and writes well.
There is a tipping point approaching – the election.
It’s not Biden that is up for re-election so much as CIA/State.
Biden claims Russia has suffered strategic defeat and will seek negotiated settlement.
There has been rumors of dialog between Russia and CIA (Burns).
I think it is USA that is starting to feel the pain (of humiliation, the actual pain is to Ukraine) and elections near it worries that there might be risk of unplanned outcome – perhaps they are hesitant to fudge elections again. So US will attempt to portray negotiations as needed by Russia and Russia might allow that deception, but two problems: US is not trustworthy and what Russia requires is the death of NATO. The problem is not thye NATO military (something of a joke), it is the missiles.

Posted by: jared | Jul 17 2023 15:57 utc | 263

William Gruff | Jul 17 2023 11:24 utc | 202
***Fentanyl is the cheap heroin for the masses… the plebes. The Hunter Bidens of world don’t do that shit, just like they wouldn’t slum it drinking rotgut like Mad Dog when they could be sipping a fine single malt. Doing Fentanyl is like getting drunk by swigging cheap food-grade ethanol from a 55gal drum. The world’s “beautiful people” don’t slum it like that. They spend premium dollars for “artisanal” heroin. Lots of money to be made there.***
Western society has been significantly damaged by decades of a drug epidemic largely facilitiated by the CIA. Yet the ordinary public never seem to get mad about that. And the politicians presumably get a percentage of the drug profits, plus whatever happens to be their favoured indulgence at a subsidised or free price (to themselves). The so-called “war on drugs” was mostly a sham, to sustain monopoly.
If the public were educated about the opium wars against China, would they put 2 and 2 together?
Frankly, I doubt it — most would either say “it was just Chinks”, or that it was long ago.
Yet it’s where some of present top Western politial / oligarchic dynasties made their very big money to start with.
But never mind — vote for them and kiss their criminal arses anyway, in perpetuity.

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 15:59 utc | 264

All this does is shut the mouths of those who try and reason with Putin not to go all in and completely destroy Ukraine. But maybe this is what is the desired outcome by the West? Maybe Russia should protected the black sea as the US protects the gulf of Mexico? Not sure of the talks going on behind closed doors…

Posted by: Dferg | Jul 17 2023 15:59 utc | 265

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 15:25 utc | 246
“As would be intensive missile attacks on Lvov, London, Washington, Seattle and Berlin.”
Only Lvov is in a country that is currently engaging in a war with Russia.
And as has become quite clear during this war, both NATO and Russia want to avoid direct confrontation. For obvious reason.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jul 17 2023 15:59 utc | 266

257
That would be NE Coast of UK
Between NE Coast and Norway, correct?

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 17 2023 16:00 utc | 267

I believe a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is now brewing.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 15:44 utc | 254

I don’t think so. Erdogan’s economy is in shambles due to inflation and costs from the earth quakes. According to Alex Mercouris, the economic situation is so dire that Turkey had no choice but make some leeway to the Waste to get an IMF loan, which requires dealing with Biden.
So Erdogan makes the Sweden deal to get IMF loan. But now it looks like they won’t be buying F-16 after all, they also have the Chinese J-20 which is a bit cheaper and newer fighter they could get.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 17 2023 16:01 utc | 268

Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 11:38 utc | 208
*** None, other than this is the most rational analysis of the situation I’ve encountered thus far and probably the best reasoning for why Putin should indeed extend the grain deal, if he wants to stick it to the Anglo-Zionist Empire.***
Erdogan might still pop up with a “grain” suggestion acceptable to Moscow, which will enhance his own status (and wallet).

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 16:09 utc | 269

It is time to face the fact the the Turks have got what they can from Russia, this withdrawal marks the end of any ‘friendly’ relations that never actually occured in reality.
I believe a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is now brewing.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 15:44 utc | 254
Quite easily solved by a simple question: “Do you want a temporary grain deal or a permanent gas hub?”…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 16:11 utc | 270

@ Chaka Khagan | Jul 17 2023 16:00 utc | 267
Yes, there, sorry.
Also subs around NW between Scotland and Island, for sure.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 16:11 utc | 271

Posted by: robjira | Jul 17 2023 0:15 utc | 108
Always the way, humans only keep their edge if they perceive a real threat. Look at the European NATO armies, they’d be hard pressed to deploy anything bigger than brigade strength and decades of UN deployments in LIC’s have substantially blunted their CE. It’s safe to say, no one predicted or prepared their forces to fight this conflict effectively, so all non-participatory armies are in the same boat, scrabbling to rewrite the manuals.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 17 2023 16:14 utc | 272

I believe a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is now brewing.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 17 2023 15:44 utc | 254
Then you dont understand Turkey.
Turkey has two Foreign Policy objectives on Ukraine 1) Dont get dragged into a US War against Russia 2) Make money.
Erdogan won the last election by painting his opponent as a US puppet.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Jul 17 2023 16:17 utc | 273

@ Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 13:07 utc | 226

There has been rumors of dialog between Russia and CIA (Burns).
I think it is USA that is starting to feel the pain (of humiliation, the actual pain is to Ukraine) and elections near it worries that there might be risk of unplanned outcome – perhaps they are hesitant to fudge elections again. So US will attempt to portray negotiations as needed by Russia and Russia might allow that deception, but two problems: US is not trustworthy and what Russia requires is the death of NATO. The problem is not thye NATO military (something of a joke), it is the missiles.

Posted by: jared | Jul 17 2023 15:57 utc | 263
Thank you for your comment. Yes, the election is a deadline of sorts, things are going to be different after that, one way or another. The usual idea is to have all the mess tidied up by about November ’23. That seems unlikely already. Clearly “Biden” cannot tolerate a level playing field. And Trump is a wrecking ball, just starting to swing again.
But the question is, what will Russia do? Can Joe offer something of interest in the first place? Can he get any such thing past Congress, or get it accepted without Congress. Why should they bother? The Russians I mean, with any of it?
But Putin is a very pragmatic guy, and he could certainly hornswoggle Blinken/Biden if he wanted to.
I think things are going to already look completely different by November this year, but I am not a particularly good predicter.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 17 2023 16:17 utc | 274

indian punchline from today…
Ukraine war takes its toll on UK politics

Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 16:21 utc | 275

Given the Chonhar bridge attack led to the Kramatorsk strike, less than a week later, I wonder what retaliation will be visited for this attack on the Kerch bridge?

Posted by: Milites | Jul 17 2023 16:26 utc | 276

Escobar posted a portion of Dugin’s reaction to the Crimea attack at his Telegram:
“About a new attack on the Crimean bridge. Notice the rabid stubbornness of the enemy. This is a distinguishing feature of the Malorossians. But now it looks ominous. They started shelling Donetsk in 2014 and do not stop for a day. They attacked the territory of the old Russian regions – Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk – and continue to. They began to kill Russians with terrorist attacks, and they do it again and again. They attacked nuclear facilities, and they do it again and again. The same with the Crimean bridge, as long as Ukraine exists with its gone mad population and manic regime, it is simply foolish and irresponsible to think that anything in its behaviour will change. In my opinion, it is necessary to curtail the simulation of peaceful life in Russia, postpone the elections (we have already elected Putin, but we certainly don’t have anyone else) and move on to full-fledged mobilization. Personnel changes are inevitable, delaying them becomes a suicidal process. We are dealing with a completely insane, extremely aggressive, deranged enemy. And behind him is the West. Rabies has no cure.”
That’s a rather radical suggestion coming from a conservative. Postponing elections IMO is the wrong thing to do.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 17 2023 16:36 utc | 277

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 17 2023 16:09 utc | 269
Erdogan might still pop up with a “grain” suggestion acceptable to Moscow, which will enhance his own status (and wallet).
Yes indeed.
If there’s one thing we’ve I’ve learned in the past year is that nothing is set in stone and conflict is rich soil for opportunists who love a good deal
And the Dervish Dancing Sultan so loves him a good deal …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 16:39 utc | 278

indian punchline from today…
Ukraine war takes its toll on UK politics

Posted by: james | Jul 17 2023 16:21 utc | 275
Interesting piece, but I think it over-complicates things; in my view the US veto of Wallace’s candidature for NATO resulted from objections by several NATO member countries. Now, if just one or two had objected I can believe the US would have overridden those objections, but I believe there was a groundswell of strong opinion from quite a few nations, such that the US could not ignore it.
Let’s have a look at the “likely suspects”:
France – there’s always been a complex and antagonistic relationship (after all, the British government thought it hugely funny to have the original Channel Tunnel trains arrive at a London terminus named Waterloo…).
Spain – post-Brexit, Gibraltar has become an irritant, plus they will have half an eye on the Spanish-speaking nations in Central and South America as their audience: think Malvinas.
Turkiye – possibly still has faint hopes of interposing itself as a peacebroker in the SMO. Seeing a “hawkish” Wallace being appointed will make this even less likely.
Germany & Denmark – have strong suspicions (if not outright evidence) of British government involvement in Nordstream.
Sooo… quite a few NATO members have compelling reasons to complain to the US about the prospect of a British NATO Secretary-General

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 16:44 utc | 279

Informative opinion in the Global Times By Brian Berletic
Published: Jul 17, 2023 06:02 PM.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 17 2023 16:45 utc | 280

275 – The UK has only 40 main battle tanks? No wonder it is not rushing to supply them to Kiev…

Posted by: Waldorf | Jul 17 2023 16:53 utc | 281

Headline from the Telegraph (prospective successor to The Onion) today:
“We Must Get Tough on Iran before it’s too late” — Sir John Jenkins
The West has gone stark raving mad.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 16:55 utc | 282

“We Must Get Tough on Iran before it’s too late” — Sir John Jenkins

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 17 2023 16:55 utc | 282
Whenever I come across British politicians and pundits using the word “tough” I am always reminded of Bliar’s speech from June 2006: “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime.”, so, Sir John Jenkins is proposing to get “tough on Iran, tough on the causes of Iran.”…
Good luck with that Sir John…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 17 2023 17:10 utc | 283

Bemildred no. 245
“A man in full” too was brilliant. The film “bonfire of the vanities” was good. But nothing can compare to the books, eh.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 17 2023 17:14 utc | 284

The Telegraph has so thoroughly ruined it’s reputation over Ukraine.
God riddance to it and it’s hack journalists.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 17 2023 17:46 utc | 285

This latest Kerch bridge sabotage attempt shows that the underwater drones Ukraine has access to are not designed for targeting large structures like bridges and are not particularly effective at doing so. This particular drone had to be loaded with extra explosives to do any significant damage at all.
Russia doesn’t need to detect every underwater drone in the Black Sea to protect the Kerch strait against such things. This is a limited area and quite shallow. The southern entrance is only about 12 miles / 20 km wide. Obvious defensive measures include increasing the number of small patrol boats guarding the bridge (chartering Iranian “mosquito” boats?), and placing a string of underwater microphones across the entrance. Ship traffic during night time hours could also be banned if it isn’t already (about 7 hours at this time of year.)
This bridge has been a premier propaganda target for the entire war. Significantly, however, the only successful attacks on it have been these irregular ones, first a truck bomb and now this repurposed drone, and the truck bomb did more damage. The attacks did show that Russia had inadequate security to protect the bridge.

Posted by: nazcalito | Jul 17 2023 18:00 utc | 286

Posted by: Tim | Jul 17 2023 13:16 utc | 229
Correct on both accounts Tim.
In reality there are two ways that money is created out of thin air…
[1] Bank lending
[2] Government spending
There are two ways that money is sent back into thin air…
[1] Paying off a bank loan
[2] Government taxation

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 17 2023 18:26 utc | 287

Inki 149 “It’s all so terribly sad and dumb. All people really want is a roof over their heads, food, health care and a bit of culture but they get whacked down again and again.”
Wading thru so much war cheerleading in the comments here, this is a breath of fresh air.

Posted by: Patrick Constantine | Jul 17 2023 18:55 utc | 288

@shadowbanned #255
You’ve been posting quite a few posts by Viktor Alksnis, but you never mention his name, which has led some barflies to think that these posts are yours. In the future, please mention the author.

Posted by: S | Jul 17 2023 19:08 utc | 289

Regarding Russia going slow, if they are supposed to have escalation dominance, they can well escalate slow if they so choose. The country should not be destroyed. Nor its people. Time is not money. Time is life.

Posted by: Stephane | Jul 17 2023 20:30 utc | 290

Doctor Eleven | Jul 17 2023 14:09 utc | 236
Affirmative: The West (US) is caught in its own net. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch of facist robbers.

Posted by: donten | Jul 17 2023 21:14 utc | 291

I’m constantly trying to understand MH370 and yesterday not realising it was the anniversary of MH17 I thought was it the US as a warning to Malaysia to say nothing. They had the black boxes but as I understand it have not said a word. This may already have been discussed endlessly apologies if it has.
Re the Crimean bridge. Yesterday I challenged some people to do better. It’s obviously of a massive scale but what about a metal shark net. The Kotor harbour had a chain joining two headlands raised in time of conflict. Or did I just make that up.

Posted by: Inki | Jul 18 2023 0:19 utc | 292

That’s a rather radical suggestion coming from a conservative. Postponing elections IMO is the wrong thing to do.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 17 2023 16:36 utc | 277
I am inclined to agree. It might get frustrating for Russians but it is Ukraine that has banned political parties and elections. This SMO seems to be going ok. Russia doesn’t need to inherit any more destroyed cities or contaminated land. And attacking directly from Belarus would be foolish. That would bring Belarus into the conflict. For now it is a great big buffet.

Posted by: Inki | Jul 18 2023 7:12 utc | 293

Ha! Buffer not buffet.

Posted by: Inki | Jul 18 2023 7:13 utc | 294

Kerch bridge attack was done with British plot and with British help
Again and again.
Only correct response is for Russia ready to annihilate and kill English and wipe England out of face of earth. Anything else is tinkering. Even if Ukraine submits today, the English pirate race will seek other. Means to destroy Russia. So Russia must destroy England start by killing all M26 employees and their HQ Now!

Posted by: Sam | Jul 18 2023 21:08 utc | 295

Meant that Russia must kill all MI16 employees at London HQ.

Posted by: Sam | Jul 18 2023 21:10 utc | 296