I saw the strangest, most coincidental thing while walking through a playground today.
As the merry go round spun, packed with children, I heard the kids shouting “Russia Russia Russia”, with one solitary voice challenging with “Ukraine!”.
Standing around the merry go round watching the children were the parents (all Asian) with one Ukrainian woman wearing the familiar yellow-blue Ukrainian flag around her wrist.
She was pushing the kids to shout “Ukraine must Win”, but it was only her little boy who followed.
The others all yelled back variations of “Russia Will Win!”.
At one point she turned to one of the (Asian) parents nearby and asked who he supports, to which the parent politely shook his head with a smile and declined to answer. I could see the other parents stealthily sidling away.
I tried to hide a smile as as she tried once more, yelling “You must all support Ukraine!” to the kids they once again chorused “Russia! Russia! Russia!” in return.
In the end she called her kid off the merry go round and left in apparent disgust.
This in the heart of Asia. “Neutral ground”, I would have imagined. In a culture renowned for not taking sides.
You can’t play games with kids.
They know what they like.
They pick sides.
In the end they follow their hearts.
In this place at least, today, without a single Russian in sight, it seems these native children have picked their side and all the billions of dollars worth of MSM propaganda hasn’t made a dent on them …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 16 2023 13:28 utc | 3

M. K. Bhadrakumar, July 13
“Germany is actually Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier, after the United States. Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a new arms package worth 700 million euros. . . ”
Consanguinity. Three of a kind, if you will, because the Neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine, like its two bigger brothers, also declares itself one of those rules-based, warts and all democracies. The US certainly would not put up with anything less. So let’s celebrate it. Add more red or a not so symbolic grenade to our flags? Much more down to earth and much more importantly, teach on a, say, weekly basis our children the safe ways of using cluster bombs, hypersonic weapons and mobile mechanized flamethrowers–all in use as I speak! A NATO Cub Scouts, if you will.
I’ve one other modest proposal. Get out of the fascist gutter before we end upin the waste pond.
(Oddly saving the lives of all nineteen year old ‘soldiers’ is something I hadn’t thought through. I get so caught up wondering what’s coming next in this [horrible] war.)
repirse: M. K. Bhadrakumar, July 13
“Germany is actually Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier, after the United States. Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a new arms package worth 700 million euros. . . ”
———————————————————–

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 16 2023 13:48 utc | 5

Biswapriya Purkayast @2:

Here’s a gang of Ukranazis riding an armoured personnel carrier painted with WWII Wehrmacht Balkenkreuz insignia deliberately murdering two civilians, one of whom is either a small woman or more likely a child:
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1680191488460836864/video/1

I was banned from Twitter within a week of joining after Musk pretended to support free speech, so I cannot read the replies to that post, but I can certainly guess a very common one.
NAFO (Nazis And Faggots Online) freak: “That’s fake!”
Of course, being a bunch of delusional tranny freaks, they are entirely comfortable with denying reality. Denial of reality is part of their “identity”, after all.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 16 2023 14:01 utc | 7

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 16 2023 13:39 utc | 4
The effects aren’t obvious yet, but Europe (meaning countries who diligently follow EU orders) will get sucked completely dry as a result of this Ukraine project. This combined with the shortcomings, and downright collapse of FIRE economies, which constitute a large part of the economy in those countries, will be very rapid increase in poverty.
The EU countries will need to fill their stocks with monopoly priced US weapons and they will also need to shovel 50 – 100 billion euros per year into project Ukraine.
The normalized inflation rate will settle probably somewhere around 5-10%, most likely on the high end due to self inflicted restrictions of supply, green energy and green economy (effectively economy of scarcity or hunger games).
US will suck whatever healthy economy still existed in EU for itself.
Once EU can’t pay for US “protection”, the payment will be demanded in the form of blood, like Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 16 2023 14:21 utc | 9

Orlov missed one point to apply his wry humor too, at Vilnius it was stated that Ukraine can join NATO after it has defeated Russia. If it defeats Russia why would it need to join NATO?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 16 2023 14:37 utc | 11

@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 16 2023 12:57 utc | 1
This is perfectly consistent with President Zelensky’s remarks about the “heroes” of Right Sector:
https://t.ly/_QIS (3.7.2023)
One need only visit the “Main Accents” page of Right Sector’s official site (https://t.ly/v4c5H 2023) to see their ideological roots:

“The movement’s flag is adorned with the Combat Tryzub — a Tryzub symbol with an upward sword in the center — that is a historical symbol of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), leaded by Yevgen Konovalets, whom we honor as a great predecessor; the movement’s name inscription is executed in traditional Cyrillic alphabet, that is a reference to our roots — the Kievan Rus State’s culture. The Red and Black Flag is one of the symbols of Ukrainian nationalism, this combination of colors is rooted to the nation’s culture. What’s more, this flag had been using [sic] by the OUN of Stepan Bandera times, which is a great example of the Idea and Deed for us. Our conviction: only the Red-Black Flag of struggle will lead us to the Blue-Yellow Flag of freedom!”

No doubt The New York Times along with the rest of mainstream media have already whitewashed the OUN and Bandera as well — par for the course in the collective West.

Posted by: HeyHeyHey | Jul 16 2023 14:39 utc | 13

Question:
Has any calculation been done on the increase in cost accumulated on moving a single artillery shell from stores in South Korea or the USA to Ukraine?
In other words, “what is the ‘value’ added to a shell in moving it from the US or other source to Ukraine”?
(I’d imagine these will largely be logistics costs.)

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 16 2023 15:05 utc | 15

I have come to the conclusion that Russian enthusiasm for keeping the battle static at its current position is because it means it would be impossible for NATO aircraft to engage without refueling. It really doesn’t matter whether or not F16s are capable if they can’t get home after a sortie because all the refueling planes have face-planted . Without air cover it will be impossible for NATO to enter the fight.
The UK can currently field around 20,000 front line troops, which is less than a month’s worth at current attrition rates. Given that they would pack up and go home after a 50% casualty rate, and would certainly rate special attention from the Russians, I can’t see the UK even beginning to take part. Lasting less than a week seems a pointless waste of resources (UK has a bit of a history of throwing away armies, but even so…)
On that basis, without the USA leading from the front, NATO involvement is impossible. From the Yahoo link posted above:

“A government source told the paper: “The war in Ukraine – fought on a scale not thought possible in this generation – has taught us many lessons. We have seen there for instance how our forces can become fleeter of foot.”

“Fleeter of foot” 😉
Brave, bold Sir Robbin, bravely ran away.

Posted by: Occasional poster | Jul 16 2023 15:22 utc | 17

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 16 2023 15:06 utc | 16
Aleph I agree with your point on NATO weapons being ineffective against Russian MOD, they have superior tactics and strategy: individual squads, platoons, regiments and brigades can act in the absence of an overall commander, learning from their mistakes and development of superior tactics, superior EW, superior air cover, and superior counter fire with artillery. Also, they are fighting poorly trained and unmotivated Ukrainian troops.
This war will be written up and studies for decades to come, and Russia will come out as the superior force. American military commanders used to fight like this, but not for decades. They could again, but not until they find warrior spirits again, and purge the military of soy boys.
The meme photo of Zelesky at the NATO summit with a mop and bucket is brilliant, and tells all one needs to know about that little maggot.

Posted by: madmarc | Jul 16 2023 15:24 utc | 19

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 16 2023 14:01 utc | 7

Of course, being a bunch of delusional tranny freaks, they are entirely comfortable with denying reality. Denial of reality is part of their “identity”, after all.

It’s not denial of reality per se. They deny reality to change reality. The idea is that denying certain parts of reality, which they know are real, will eventually lead to actual changes in some other parts of reality in the direction of their aims. Some old fat charlatan explained this post-modernist, post-Marxist theory some 20 yr back.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 16 2023 15:28 utc | 21

NAToadies: “No!! Our weapons are wunderbar! The reason they are not working is because the Ukrainians are crap! Ukrainians are the same thing as Russians anyway, so of course they are crap! Even with our perfect wunderwaffen, all the Ukrainians can do is fail! It is like giving a Mercedes to a monkey!”
Guaranteed the West has not yet accepted their insanely expensive weapons are shit. They blame the poor performance on the Ukrainians.
This is all such a tragedy. The Ukrainians worship a culture and society that despises Ukrainians, and that culture they worship can never live up to the fantasies the Ukrainians have cultivated in their imaginations. It’s a collision of incompatible delusions.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 16 2023 15:38 utc | 23

https://t.me/llordofwar/174114

Ukraine will lose up to $500 million monthly in case of break grain deal, follows from UN Comtrade data, as well as Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture and Customs. That is, in a month, the Bandera people get more from her than from three visits by the head of South Korea, if Yuna had the fantasy of coming to Kyiv three times, each time leaving 150 million dollars there.
In this regard, one cannot but be surprised by the fact that Kyiv seems to be making every effort to ensure that the deal was thwarted. This is, first of all, the refusal to fulfill the Russian conditions associated with it. One can, of course, assume that this is the result of Russian gestures of “good will” that convinced our opponents that we can be “thrown” with impunity. But it’s not only that.
Today, the Nazis again attacked Sevastopol with naval drones using the “grain deal” routes. And this despite the fact that they are well aware that it weighs in the balance. In fact, they are literally forcing Moscow out of it. For what?
At the same time, Kyiv claims that if Moscow withdraws from the deal, it will be continued without its participation. That is, bulk carriers will continue to carry grain in the same way. And not only him, because, as they expect in Kyiv, pesky searches by Russian representatives will stop. But this is not the main thing – the Nazis expect that the grain carriers will accompany the Turkish warships, since Ankara is one of the main beneficiaries of the deal.
And if the Turks go for it, this, according to the Bandera people, opens up a chance to provoke a Russian-Turkish conflict if they attack Turkish ships, passing it off as a Russian attack. It is no secret that drawing NATO into an armed confrontation is one of the main goals of the Nazis. And for this, they are ready to sacrifice even a grain deal.

https://t.me/llordofwar/174123

🇺🇦Arestovich is already proposing to give Russia 20% of the territory so that the rest join NATO. As an analogy, he cites the division of Germany into the FRG and the GDR.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 16 2023 15:42 utc | 25

Some old fat charlatan explained this post-modernist, post-Marxist theory some 20 yr back.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 16 2023 15:28 utc | 21
———————————————————–
I give up, who was / is the “old fat charlatan?” Are you talking about Karl Rove: “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors. . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

Posted by: Ed | Jul 16 2023 15:54 utc | 27

The critical threat is not that Ukraine “wins”, it’s that Russia “loses”. Ukraine will be poor, wrecked and largely depopulated with a Zelensky/oligarch dictatorship. They’ve lost already.
The problem I see is the conflict turning into a Vietnam war situation for Russia as it never ends. Admittedly, Ukraine is not a jungle with a Ho Chi Minh trail but that doesn’t mean it can’t continue indefinitely with 500 – 1000 KIA a day for years to come with hand held weapons and mines.
Next up? They will ‘definitely” defeat Russia if they get air cover (ha ha). After that, longer range missiles. The two sides seem to mirror each other with Hopium in Ukraine and looking for Ukr collapse by pro-Russia folks.
Even Zelensky thought he might be overthrown if Bakhmut was lost. No way. No one is there to stop him, Ukraine people complain about not enough cemetery space and not a single objection by the EU to kidnapping men for the meat grinder. How is there an end in sight?
Maybe one huge surrender will do something (or not). Or maybe Russia builds out a wide DMZ and stops.I did read that most of the kidnapped meat grinder guys are coming from Odessa so less for Russia to fight if they were to link with Transnistria and cut off Odessa – and push Odessa into autonomy.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 16 2023 15:56 utc | 29

Could this be the way the proxy war ends, then — not with a bang but a whimper?
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 16 2023 15:06 utc | 16
Continuation of the proxy war has two drivers:
—The cause of its origin being sustained and
—The internal momentum generated by the conflict since its inception.
The original cause was the expansionist push by the USA and its vassal organizations, NATO and the EU. Its material sustenance is becoming physically impossible without escalation of weapons’ types, its widespread support is disappearing among US and Western European peoples, and its timeline for victory in advance of popular elections is drawing to a close. The conflict may well end with a whimper.
Yet the secondary cause for continuance must be addressed by the RF. Once a fistfight is begun, the two combatants often quickly lose their sense of the casus belli and think only of ways to harm or eliminate their opponent.
In coming decades, Putin’s restraint since 2014 and throughout the RF’s military response will be seen to have resulted in the most effective course of action in limiting the kinetic phase of this conflict by removing both motivators towards its continuance.

Posted by: Ciaran | Jul 16 2023 16:03 utc | 31

I have been providing friends and family with a Ukraine Update (or summary) on a weekly basis for over a year and have recently placed it on substack because the quality is better than gmail. The Update reports on issues connected with the war viewed in the wider sense as an economic and political conflict between NATO/The West on the one hand and Russia and the Emerging Multi-polar world order on the other. It draws on many sources people on the MoA will be familiar with including the MoA itself. It is not exhaustive but may be useful to some. https://robcampbell.substack.com/

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jul 16 2023 16:14 utc | 33

Posted by: metamars | Jul 16 2023 16:01 utc | 30
Brilliant, that Orlov.
Sheer genius!
Of course, this would require Russia to ramp up the pace of the war to force NATO to increase it’s rate of weapons depletion. Russia would need to start doing the provoking instead of being provoked.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 16 2023 16:21 utc | 35

… Let’s hope Erdogan doesn’t involve Turkey in this lunacy (that’s a big hope!).
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 16 2023 15:55 utc | 28
Yes, indeed. It’s an interesting / disturbing explanation for Ukraine’s otherwise mysterious sabotage of a deal they benefit from.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 16 2023 15:56 utc | 29
It’s a fine idea but Odessa / Transnistria seem to be off the table, DMZ / buffer-zone currently means evacuation RF civilians from RF territory only.
That could change but the same strategy reached its logical conclusion in allowing Kakhovka HPP to exist in no-mans-land, which undoubtedly lead to its catastrophic loss.
Zaporozhia NPP currently exists in the same no-man’s-land.
Questioning the logic of this strategy provoked a near avalanche of tendentious rubbish from contributors one might otherwise suspect of being credible.
Must have touched a nerve.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 16 2023 16:27 utc | 37

@unimperator | Jul 16 2023 14:21 utc | 9

The effects aren’t obvious yet, but Europe (meaning countries who diligently follow EU orders) will get sucked completely dry as a result of this Ukraine project.

I believe the proper name for this space is Großraum Europa.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 16 2023 17:00 utc | 39

Distance between Seoul and Kiev: 4,537 miles
Distance between Iowa* and Kiev: 5,215 miles
Nobody seems too concerned about the carbon footprint of all these weapons shipments, for some reason.
Some old fat charlatan explained this post-modernist, post-Marxist theory some 20 yr back.
Derrida? What a consummate oaf.

Posted by: ASensibleMan | Jul 16 2023 17:05 utc | 41

Posted by: Milites | Jul 16 2023 16:21 utc | 34
On western ISR, I suspect there remains considerable scope to effectively “pin down” Russian forces and inflict costly ongoing losses in both men and materiel, even if the apparent pace of the conflict were to slacken off for lack of “blood and guts” inventory support for UA.
Picking targets from space, or using live satellite imagery to pinpoint an approximate location given by local sensors, hitting targets with long range rockets, missiles, drones, this can go on even if the obvious slaughter abates.
Yes, western strategists appear to have misjudged the immediate inventory requirements, but if the goal really is, as stated, to inflict politically damaging losses on RF in a protracted, sub-nuclear proxy war, a lot of the blood and guts stuff we’ve seen is probably nothing more than a way to kill Ukrainians and dispose of existing European military inventory. Conventional measures of “success” might not be that informative.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 16 2023 17:13 utc | 43

BL Please report on Scott Ritter’s brand new July 2023 expose documentary “Agent Zelensky” – 36 minutes, free on youtube. It totally contradicts the lies told by Biden’s clowns!

Posted by: Toby C | Jul 16 2023 17:23 utc | 45

This may have been posted before, but it is really great
Good morning! Here a Russian fighter from the first line of defense will tell you a little about life.
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1678975735011082241

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 16 2023 17:47 utc | 47

Zadira target practicing on scalps “confirmed” unshielded boards
Kiev troops documented surrendering without boots, only wearing tennis shoes
Zircon mineral discovery indicator mineral for kimberlite diamond deposits
Antiglare-privacy screens being used by frontline drone operators night missions
Rapid deployment of swarm fleet via hypersonic payload
Forcing missle diversion by flying honorable sandbags

Posted by: Merlin | Jul 16 2023 18:01 utc | 49

#17 ” I can’t see the UK even beginning to take part.”
UK is always up for a US coalition of the willing. After being a liability in Iraq and Afghanistan, more direct participation in Ukraine (than training and weaponry) is unlikely to be a watershed for change. Both main UK political parties are warmongers so 2024 elections will make little differenc. The key point is that this is a sustained neocon assault on public resources and public savings through transfer of wealth on a vast scale to the MIC, corrupt politicians, and via rapid erosion of pubic services like NHS, water, energy and rail. It’s a war to justify the new Enclosure Acts.

Posted by: tom paine | Jul 16 2023 18:23 utc | 51

Posted by: Milites | Jul 16 2023 16:21 utc | 34
So following on from your post (with which I largely agree) I would add maybe that all weapons are designed to be used as part of a doctrinal system. Western weapons are not “junk” but not really designed to do what Ukraine wants them to do. I could credibly argue that western weapons (at least the ones supplied to Ukraine by and large) are older cold war items (maybe upgraded) which were intended to attrit and delay via a mobile defence a mass Soviet armoured assault. They were originally intended to operate under conditions of at least air parity and with troops who were better trained and motivated than those of the Warsaw Pact. They were not intended to assault fortified lines without air and fire superiority and against an intact first-class enemy. And actually neither were Russian weapons.
Since the end of the cold war and particularly Iraq, western doctrine has assumed total air superiority and its militaries have been geared to fighting counter insurgencies. Paraphrasing someone – I forget who – the USA entered WW2 with a poor army and ended it with one that was superb, same with Korea. It entered Vietnam with a good army and ended it with a poor one. It fought the late cold war with a poor army at the start and ended it with a great one. It fought the post cold war at first with a good army and now it has a poor one. And by poor I don’t necessarily mean badly equipped, led and motivated – just poorly designed for the task at hand. And the effect of the mighty $ is anything but good. Western and particularly US weapons are not value for money – over complex and fragile – and have been really since the early 1960’s. Most will at any point in time be in the repair shops.
Modern western militaries have really been designed for a sand box or no threat environment. For example a lot of the so called AFVs being used in assaults by the UAF were designed as anti-IE vehicles to be used to patrol roads and villages etc. A 60 ton complex tank may do well in mobile defence, falling back on its logistics base. Less well when sent forward through a minefield covered by ISR directed precision drones, missiles and artillery – never mind light units equipped with ATGMs. And as we all know, munitions stocks have been kept at levels sufficient to destroy a few goat herders, not undertake Barbarossa redux.
The Russian military and its MIC infrastructure (inheriting the Soviet base) has been designed to fight a mass war and prevail against all likely enemies (in conjunction) and to do so without air superiority. In fact the investment in long range weapons and air defence is proving a very valid choice. It is clear to any unbiased observer that it has made mistakes in this war but my view is that it is learning fast. Instead of degrading the Russian military, this war is honing and strengthening it. One facet of that increasing professionalism is that it rarely attempts the lunatic attacks so often seen by the UAF.
NATO commentators continue to claim that the Russian military is badly degraded. I don’t see that. Nevertheless unless they can take the offensive and seize key terrain and destroy the UAF mobile reserves this war of atomised attrition will IMHO continue. And I do not consider that delay will work for Russia in a year or two. It takes two to tango though, and dare I suggest that at whatever stage NATO [decides] to engage in a direct shooting war with Russia, counter-measures will already have been put into place. The peace dividend has its price.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 16 2023 18:46 utc | 53

Posted by: Peter | Jul 16 2023 17:14 utc | 44
Umm… no?
First, 85th brigade is in Seversk and Belgorovka, not Bakhmut. They seem to be doing a good job of hitting AFU vehicles in their location.
Second, who controls Bakhmut? It’s still fully under RU control, albeit AFU is close to outskirts. They are the ones needing to attack and do “suicide missions”.
There’s also the fact that AFU purchased 1200 Russian uniforms for precisely the reason that they can produce BS videos and statements. Additionally, they try to use those uniforms to infiltrate with their DRGs.
This @wartranslated / Dmitri seems to be a Ukrainian con-artist.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 16 2023 18:48 utc | 55

Posted by: Milites | Jul 16 2023 16:21 utc | 34
Excellent analysis, thanks.

Posted by: canuck | Jul 16 2023 18:53 utc | 57

@Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 16 2023 14:29 utc | 10
“It was all interesting, but Jens Sorenson was a real find. An impressive academic. His account of the Association Agreement and the sequence was particularly important – the emphasis tends to be on NATO expansion but EU expansion was what caused the turmoil in 2013/2014.”
The EU Association Agreement with Ukraine was an agreement for the total economic surrender of Ukraine to EU neo-colonialism, thats why Yanukovych recoiled when he read it and determined that it must be renegotiated or rejected. That’s when the coup was triggered, even though Yanukovych was agreeing to early elections. The EU were just as responsible as the US, all their bleating is utter lies as shown by the new revelations about Minsk. The Europeans will always see the Slavs as lesser thans to be subjugated and used as a resource colony and cheap labour – a white Haiti, they never stop trying to subjugate Russia. The Russians even managed to remove the Poland that it fought with a number of times, only for Versailles to resurrect it.
1558 – 1583 Livonian War (Sweden, Poland-Lithuania, Denmark, Norway)
1605 – 1618 Polish-Muscovite War
1632 – 1634 Smolensk War (Poland)
1654 – 1667 Russo-Polish War
1708 – 1709 Swedish Invasion of Russia
1768 – 1772 Bar Confederation, Russia-Polish War (first partition of Poland)
1792 Russia-Polish War (second partition of Poland)
1794 Polish Upraising (Poland ceases to exist)
1812 French Invasion of Russia
1853 – 1856 Crimean War (England, France and Ottoman Empire against Russia)
1905 – 1907 Polish Revolution (put down. by the Russians)
1914 – 1917 World War 1 (Germany)
1917 – 1922 Russian Civil War with intervention from the Western powers and Poland (the latter recreated at Versailles, so obviously to create an enemy to Russia on its borders s with Finland and the Baltic States)
1941 – 1945 Barbarossa (Germany)
1991 – 1999 Western attempts to destroy Russia through their puppet Yeltsin
2022 – Proxy Western war with Russia (preceded by attempted coups in Belarus and Kazakhstan)
Russia will have to force the West to leave it in peace, but the Baltic and Polish elites will always hate them.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 16 2023 18:58 utc | 59

Question Barflies;
The Ukraine was a industrial powerhouse during Soviet times.
Why doesn’t The Ukraine produce its own weapons anymore ?

Posted by: Exile | Jul 16 2023 19:14 utc | 61

Norwegian no. 47
Hysterical. 😂 What a guy.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 16 2023 19:24 utc | 63

@exile
The ukraine was producing a lot of stuff for the soviet/russian industrial complex until 2014/15.
Things like engines for russian fighter jets or components for russian tanks and ammunition as well.
It all endet after 2014 because being on the western side meant breaking all ties to Russia. They ruined their industries within a few years. The russians were building up their own industries to substitute the ukrainian products.
So lets say you are a company in ukraine producing components for T-72 tanks.
How long do you survive once you are not allowed to sell to Russia anymore?
How long do you continue producing shells for russian howitzers when its very clear that every new piece your government buys is of western production and you cant sell to russia anymore?

Posted by: Orgel | Jul 16 2023 19:35 utc | 65

Ukraine likely doesn’t need the grain deal anymore because Ukraine doesn’t have so much grain to export. Nor should it export what it has norwhat’s currently in the ground. At the start of the SMO Ukraine was exporting the 2021 crop, it got a lot of the 2022 crop from the western half of the country.
Since then it has lost some of the most valuable agricultural land it had and much of the rest is a current battlefield. Large numbers of agricultural workers are mobilized (why Kiev can go on like normal, the mobilized mostly come from villages). And every indicator and Ukrainian information mention reiterates that agriculture is in terrible shape. Planted acreage has dropped significantly, even compared to 2022. It may functionally collapse within the year.
Letting Kiev continue to ship it out might actually be a strong strategy for Russia. Cruel because Zelensky will sell even his seed corn and the people will suffer. But effective because a hungry Ukrainian people are a serious threat to Kiev.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 16 2023 19:40 utc | 67

Posted by: Ed | Jul 16 2023 15:54 utc | 27
Yup. That old fat charlatan.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 16 2023 19:45 utc | 69

Why doesn’t The Ukraine produce its own weapons anymore ?
In addition to the great response from @65 orgel, I would say “corruption.”
Building and sustaining a home grown defense industry- lucrative, but hard work.
Simply bribing western officials for sweetheart weapons deals, then skimming 10% off the top?
Easy peasy.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 16 2023 19:48 utc | 71

Posted by: Milites | Jul 16 2023 19:38 utc | 66
Thank you for a considered and well argued response.
In my opinion, an army which can keep its equipment in the field (simple, robust, easy to use and maintain) will likely prevail long term over one that takes the opposite approach. And I think one reason that the UAF has survived so long is that over 80% of their kit has been of Soviet design origin.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 16 2023 20:01 utc | 73

Posted by: Milites | Jul 16 2023 18:50 utc | 56
Thank you ! That’s pretty cool !

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 16 2023 20:04 utc | 75

From March of this year, here is a study of rivers potentially serving, as some of them have before, as Russia’s border with the West Eurasian peninsula:
https://theological-geography.net/?p=70480

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 16 2023 20:16 utc | 77

Are the casualties ratios accurate?
https://voxday.net/2023/07/16/clown-world-wont-quit/

Posted by: jpc | Jul 16 2023 20:25 utc | 79

The Ukraine war develops as I supposed. The real limiting factor is the Ukrainians, so it will end when Ukrainians run out. It sounds cynical (and is) but the West basically can continue to send endless weapons. But it can’t send endless Ukrainians. The Ukrainians get less and less. The West can send “volunteers” but their number is limited since the number of the insane is limited. And it cannot mobilize soldiers since this would mean direct war. So the war will end due to the lack of Ukrainians.

Posted by: xblob | Jul 16 2023 20:40 utc | 81

For you mil gearheads check out the new Lancet launch vehicle:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/55270
This is a worthy 15 min expose’ on the Lancet with Eng subtitles, the type 3 model with the launch tube shown above is the most interesting:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/55267

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 16 2023 20:49 utc | 83

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 16 2023 19:40 utc | 68
“Russia is losing generals left and right”
Military Summary hypothesises that the best of Russia’s generals are being surreptitiously reassigned to a brand new army with a remit of taking Kharkiv (and perhaps Kiev?)

Posted by: Tim | Jul 16 2023 21:20 utc | 85

BBC radio news today said Russia was advancing in the Kharkov direction. Made a change from their usual “reporting”.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 16 2023 21:35 utc | 87

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 16 2023 15:27 utc | 20
Why waste metal? How about peas? Bird strike is a problem for all planes.
Now imagine the headline- NATO article 5 triggered because the evil Russians dropped peas on the runway.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 16 2023 21:46 utc | 89

Business Insider
Ukrainian units are leaving behind their Western tanks and advancing slowly on foot after coming up against dense Russian minefields, report says
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-units-leaving-behind-western-142342010.html

Ukraine has been forced to change its counteroffensive strategy after repeatedly coming up against dense Russian minefields, a report says.
Ukrainian units are leaving behind the battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles donated by Western allies and advancing slowly on foot, The Washington Post reported.
“You can no longer do anything with just a tank with some armor because the minefield is too deep, and sooner or later, it will stop, and then it will be destroyed by concentrated fire,” Ukraine’s commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny told The Post.
The minefields have exposed the limitations of Western-provided armor, which Ukraine had long been requesting to help in its fight to take back territory occupied by Russia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/15/ukraine-war-russia-mines-counteroffensive/
Long article, and wow is the writer careful to include as much happy talk as possible. But to their credit they also include a lot of inconvenient truth.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 16 2023 22:03 utc | 91

Please help.
Commenter on a YT vid claims Donbas deaths ‘after the first two years’ average only 26 per day. Referring to the shelling of the Donbas from the Kiev side.
Startling news if true but not what I’ve been believing.
Anyone got a quick link or strongly authoritative statement to establish the truth?

Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 16 2023 22:26 utc | 93

@93
I don’t understand the “only”. That’s over 9000 a year.

Posted by: Technophobe | Jul 16 2023 22:38 utc | 95

@ Milites | Jul 16 2023 19:38 utc | 66
As for the fragility of Western weapons, compared to their rugged eastern counterparts, that is much overstated. Russian kit tends to be more robust because it is less capable and less flexible on an individual basis, as are the troops operating it.
Good subject and thoughts, thanks for that.
I wouldn’t put it blunt like that, and it is certainly untrue in many cases.
Just trying to enlighten the Soviet approach, if I may.
Since the establishment of industrial production in Old Soviet state, the Design Bureaus are established with the task to design most deadly weapons and systems. Those are huge institutions with a long tradition. Those employ also all kinds of profiles, from local technical work-force to historians, doctors and psychiatric experts. So a big teams of very capable people, all interlinked with the military, came to understanding that weaponry must be usable by everyone. Industry was happy, too. That is an old doctrine, embedded in some ex-Eastern European states too.
All Russian tanks can be operated by less operators it is designed for. Two skilled tankers can operate a tank of a 72 basis, stay on a field without much trouble.
In the case of a Western approach, philosophy is to operate in a complete set-up and having one of the crew out of action, the vehicle is rendered useless. It gets replaced as a whole, because we produce, we train and we have ‘enough’ soldiers. It a system tied to NATO ideology and propaganda. The same is with a shoulder launched weaponry.
Soviets detached a rocket soldier from a missile. Meaning that they concentrated on a missile development from a simple shaped charge to a smart self-guided. And the idea that launcher stays analog and rather primitive is way more efficient that way, as in comparison to TOWs and MLAWS and Javelins, Armbrusts and whatnot salad of such battery operating gadgets.
Standard Hollywood Soviet RPG is way better for RF’s doctrine and everyone can use it, and there are plenty and a vast variety of missiles, to it.
One should also take into the account that a variety of Soviet made weapons were designed with a mantra of ‘specificity of the target defeat’. For each target there are varieties of weapons, dedicated to one special task – to defeat the specific target in many ways.
That is why, just as an example, a Russian military has cluster, cassette active, cassette mixed, incendiary, etc. in many varieties, technical levels, ranges and vehicles for their delivery, at around 40 types of such systems. To every situation on the field there is a solution in choosing the appropriate ammo. There is a plenty of to choose from legal/illegal systems, that is questionable, but it is there. The West lags there, even by old Soviet standards and stashes.
In Soviet times a lot of stuff was made like AK-47, was simple, just worked and no need to change. Newer RF’s weaponry is streamlined to a combination of old Soviet doctrine of ‘overwhelm from many sides and in many ways’ analog way, and a new ‘god’s eye’, digitally enhanced precision-dedicated RF’s battle plans.
Today, and on the cheap, every expensive Western design is defeated quickly.
Some Western weaponry is still respected, and in a certain way stays slightly challenging, but it is still rendered as defeated.
However, it is interesting what you state, and that is the manner on how the NATO perceived Soviets, as a way back then. Not noticing the change, and being the same today, means only that NATO would be badly beaten, regardless when. So, it was a false advertising of a sort throughout the years.
Indeed a two very different approaches on how to wage conflict in a multi-domain, while Soviets had always a bit of overwhelming analog based tip there.
The Western arrogance and a trust in its own technology supremacy is fatal.
It was same during the ‘space race’, the very same style.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 16 2023 22:44 utc | 97

Whatever happened to Russia’s much vaunted acoustic counter artillery spotter, seems like Ukrainian arty is still a factor in this conflict, particularly with the complaints of a lack of counter battery work by Russian commanders.

Posted by: Johnycomelately | Jul 16 2023 22:53 utc | 99