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July 13, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-166
Comments
@ S | Jul 13 2023 21:47 utc | 86
Re: the “cultural genocide” in Ukraine. I wonder if this BS means that the huge titanium statue visible from most of Kiev, called the Motherland, also known colloquially as “The Babe” will be torn down? Or maybe just cut off the offending arm with the offending shield? I’d ask my Ukrainian friend, but he is so violently Russophobic I might have to mute my phone!
Posted by: Wilhelm | Jul 13 2023 23:59 utc | 102
Regarding earlier post, I was mistaken, repeating so much hearsay I was told in the 1990s. Actually, tho I was told it is titanium, it’s actually stainless steel. Whoops. Maybe they can melt it down and make rustproof 155mm artillery?
Posted by: Willhelm | Jul 14 2023 0:04 utc | 103
UWDude@92….injury time at the end of the first half. With NATO subbing in, let’s see if they have the legs. Are they a Storm on the horizon, or a Shadow of their former self? Second half looks to be of interest…. I’m not much for long games, to much blood and guts, not my thing, let’s hope it doesn’t go to overtime or a Penalty Shoot Out, that might lead to mushroom clouds in the kitchen.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 14 2023 0:10 utc | 104
One final OT comment, sorry. I read that as of today the leadership in Ukraines govt. has tumbled to the fact that the shield has the hammer and sickle of the Soviet Union,and they want to replace it with the trident. However, that leaves the thousands of marble memorial plaques for “Hero of the Soviet Union” still in place. What to do? I guess posturing, given the example of their oh so heroic President is more important than results!
Posted by: Wilhelmm | Jul 14 2023 0:15 utc | 105
@Schlachterhund | Jul 13 2023 19:31 utc | 59
‘The real goal of the American foreign policy establishment is rendering European sovereignty impossible.’
Certainly one of its key goals – and thus far, highly successfully accomplished. European ‘Strategic Autonomy’ is, for now, dead in the water. And the European Citizenry will be a lot poorer because its leaders have sold it out to the US.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 14 2023 0:16 utc | 106
@ young | Jul 13 2023 23:55 utc | 100
All that is great.
One has to know that NATO/USA in EU has only gravity nukes, tight to its delivery platforms and those are F-16 and F-35 planes and also not all the versions available. Also it is very limited in scope due to distances and refueling issues. Not to mention RF’s anti-air missilage. Checking if F-16 has a nuke or some HARM or SCALP will not be needed.
It is very clear that if flown from foreign bases, and planes and bases will be the target, as same as within Ukraine. If AEGIS changes to an offensive mode those will be taken out, too. Search for security is a very flexible military and political tool. I do not think that Lavrov or Putin bluff, on those issues.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 14 2023 0:21 utc | 107
@Wilhelm #102
Last I heard, they are planning to replace the Soviet coat of arms on the shield with the Ukrainian coat of arms.
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 0:25 utc | 108
young Jul 13 2023 23:55 utc | 100
i suppose none of the old soviet jets that ukranazistan had or received from formers are nuclear drop bomb capable. and also i suppose shadow storm and the french knock off light cruise missiles, the us never confirms it had nukes on things like atacms….many things can can be armed with tac nukes……….
i suspect lavrov is making a big deal to up the ante on usanazistan allowing f-16.
two issues with f-16:
it is old tech, 1960’s engines were never reliable or safe and 40 odd years fixing them was not as expected.
second, their use in close air support, or suppression of air defenses is marginal at best in the tactical environment…….
one more issue to have any arms load they will need to be refueled over central ukranazistan the refuelers easily sought and shot down…..
if the ukranazi mercs flying f-16 need three or four f-16’s to get one strike aircraft in and out, 2 of the mission package will likely break down on the way in.
what z con=medians wants that profits the lockheeds and boeings he will get.
Posted by: paddy | Jul 14 2023 0:40 utc | 109
And how is one to know when the Aegis system is configured to launch Tomahawk nuclear weapons, especially when the claim that the system is defensive is technically suspect, ie FALSE ?
… https://thebulletin.org/2019/02/russia-may-have-violated-the-inf-treaty-heres-how-the-united-states-appears-to-have-done-the-same/
“ A U.S. missile facility in Poland is at the heart of an issue animating the Kremlin’s calculations over whether to go to war against Ukraine.”.
… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/poland-missile-base-russia-ukraine.html
Posted by: Erichwwk | Jul 14 2023 0:48 utc | 110
they are planning to replace the Soviet coat of arms on the shield with the Ukrainian coat of arms.
That would only turn it into a pastiche, a pathetic derivative of the original creation. If so determined to honor their new social formation, they should consider erecting the whole monument from scratch. This, of course, requires a certain amount of artistic talent. Is there any?
Posted by: Nomad | Jul 14 2023 0:48 utc | 111
in usanazistan reserve formations there will likely be fewer pronoun controversies
ramAustralia | Jul 13 2023 23:57 utc | 101
the cited operation “atlantic resolve’ has been going on since 2014. obomber!
the rotation of “activated” reserve units/personnel over a certain span of time requires the us’ presidents’ order.
for example during much of the time since 2003 similar presidential (bush, obomber) orders sent us reserve formations to iraq for 9 months to a year!
the number cited it 3000, a few units and a lot of extra reservists to let us european command (eucom) personnel have leave.
Posted by: paddy | Jul 14 2023 0:57 utc | 112
@Schlachterhund | Jul 13 2023 19:31 utc | 59
‘The real goal of the American foreign policy establishment is rendering European sovereignty impossible.’
Certainly one of its key goals – and thus far, highly successfully accomplished. European ‘Strategic Autonomy’ is, for now, dead in the water. And the European Citizenry will be a lot poorer because its leaders have sold it out to the US.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 14 2023 0:16 utc | 106
That’s true.
But America’s ambitions are even more insane that neutering European sovereignty.
The Americans seek to rape the sovereignty of *any* nation that could even possibly resist American world domination.
So it’s not just Europe but also Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Syria, etc. that the USA has in its crosshairs.
American world domination is the actual substance of the USA’s unipolar “Rules-Based Order.”
This has been tacitly admitted by US official and quasi-official foreign policy documents like the Pentagon’s 1992 Defense Planning Guidance document; the Wolfowitz Doctrine; the Pentagon’s Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine; or the Project for a New American Century (PNAC) think-tank.
In the Goebbelsian American mind, however, the USA’s aggressive imperialism is spindoctored as defensive in nature, as they call it “defending freedom, democracy, and US national security.”
Put another way, the Americans are more aggressive, more ambitious, and more megalomaniacal than the Nazi Third Reich–who were moderate dilettantes in comparison.
U.S. Strategy Plan Calls For Insuring No Rivals Develop
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html
A PNAC Primer
https://www.counterpunch.org/2003/05/27/a-pnac-primer/
1992 Draft Defense Planning Guidance
https://militarist-monitor.org/profile/1992_draft_defense_planning_guidance/
Posted by: ak74 | Jul 14 2023 1:10 utc | 113
Erichwwk | Jul 14 2023 0:48 utc | 110
certainly the launchers for us navy sm x missiles designed for intercepting ballistic missile, cued by aegis spy-1X radars in rumania and poland, can fire heavy ship launched cruise missiles and these could be nuclear armed like the ground launched of the 1970’s…….
w/o on site inspections the us broke the inf treaty.
image sm x launchers in kharkov!
Posted by: paddy | Jul 14 2023 1:20 utc | 114
Some videos for today.
RT visits Lugansk memorial complex established to commemorate victims of Kiev regime attacks:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/lugansk_memorial_1307:5
Russian soldiers capture another US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicle:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/bradley_1207:2
Another US-supplied Bradley bites the dust:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-07-13_16-22-26:4
The Kiev regime continues suffering significant losses during its suicidal “counteroffensive” (18+ footage):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/5JwIP_-4wTAYmlJd:0
Russian infantry fighting vehicle opens fire near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/7dbcdeb475d1a44a75d6476ce17af4fd/
Russian Su-34 in action:
https://rutube.ru/video/560ae49feefcbc183d0fa442b8d7dea2/
Posted by: Nate | Jul 14 2023 1:23 utc | 115
@ ak74 | Jul 14 2023 1:10 utc | 113
That is all true, but stays as an old fashioned neocon doctrine.
I suspect they gave up having a full spectrum dominance as space flights are not really smooth and regular in the USA. During the cold war and a Space Shuttle period the USA was more flexible as it is today. Also the doctrine now is to weaken and divide possible contenders for a “god given throne” understood as the Earth owner. But, that tactic is also a failed one. Nobody on this planet wants to dominate and be exposed as the USA envisaged its place. The new World is basically everything opposite neo-neocons want to have. .
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 14 2023 1:29 utc | 116
Posted by: S | Jul 13 2023 18:30 utc | 42
This was a hot topic at AfterShock yesterday. Major General Popov: “The main tragedy of modern warfare is the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations”. 936 comments. I read as far as p 5.
Comprehending machine translated idiom is challenging absent emoji punctuation. Nonetheless I surmise, the mood, in general, is equal contempt for Andrey Gurulev/Gurilev, because he spitefully publicized Popov’s confidential message (Popov replaced Gurulev in 58th), and Popov whose command is associated with a route in Zaporizh* or Kherson? (Oct 2022) where Tsokov died. Popov’s competence isn’t questioned so much as dereliction of MOD materiel supply (quality and quantity) inferred from Popov’s melancholic message to surviving NCOs. Comparisons to Prigozhin’s dupicity and complaints are invoked; Gerasimov and Shoigu duties to sort out the scandal are …deplored; this chatter reinforces over all suspicion about General Staff political intrigue within MOD adversely affecting SMO performance.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 14 2023 1:33 utc | 117
William Schryver has a must read article up on his Substack.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-jig-is-up?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
The money quote:
“This war is a lost cause for the empire and its hapless allies in Europe and around the world. And that, of course, is the unavoidable conclusion that has finally managed to seep into the otherwise dense skulls of the various participants at the recent NATO summit in Lithuania.
The Masters of Empire now face a no-win scenario. They must abandon their failed Ukraine gambit — and inexorably, over the next few years, yield to maximalist Russian demands regarding the roll-back of NATO to its pre-1997 borders — or else yield to the mad impulse of a futile attempt to subjugate Russia by force of arms in the form of direct US/NATO intervention into this war.
Either way, the decline of the empire will be radically accelerated; NATO will almost immediately cease to function as a credible military/political alliance; the EU will dissolve as a monetary/political “union”; the demise of the global dollar system will rapidly gain momentum.
And though many, if not most, find risible the assertion that these things could possibly come to pass in anything like the near- or medium-term (2 – 5 years), I increasingly expect they will be proven catastrophically mistaken.”
Posted by: Morongobill | Jul 14 2023 1:38 utc | 118
@47 lovedonbass
Regarding impatient war watchers. I’d say it’s a good tell the more impatient they are the better its working.
Russia is fighting a brutal war. War of attrition they declared last year. They invite death and dare their enemies to come. It’s got big brass balls. It’s a stone cold strategy and even better they play it slow to keep the blade in.
It’s war God approved I’ve come to realize.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 14 2023 1:40 utc | 119
@ Wanker Arch | Jul 14 2023 1:37 utc | 118
Yes, sure they did. If they didn’t, you would be glowing in the dark, by now.
But, on some things they didn’t and will not fold. ‘Security’ is a very twistable term, enabling a lot of exploration.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 14 2023 1:49 utc | 120
To carry on in the knife vein. It was amusing to watch Nato and especially Zelensky squirm. They have no idea what to do now, but try more of the same. The talk of freezing, or ceasefire, hints of secret negotiations. Soon they’ll be talking about saving lives to stop the slaughter. Oh my give peace a chance! Lol!
Russia has declared lands they’ve annexed. They have said ukraines state is completely controlled by Nato. They insist on a treaty of equals for their security but no one will sign it. So be it.
NATO insists on being completely involved but it too cowardly to directly declare war. They’ve declared it every sort of evil but can’t be bothered to intervene directly? They’ve intervened liberally elsewhere this smacks of fear.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 14 2023 1:57 utc | 121
Just caught a glimpse of a Tweet about some kind of attack at Vonezsh (sp?) inside Russia? Something to do with a nuclear plant (not ZNPP I think) Apparently an internal Russian thing, not UAF? Grain of salt; it was from an account covered in Ukro flags.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 14 2023 2:03 utc | 122
Voronezh – https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679599195370684416
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 14 2023 2:04 utc | 123
Germany is the weak point of the west.
If Russia stated that Germany must unconditionally surrender or be destroyed, what would the US response be?
German tanks in Ukraine were a huge miscalculation.
Russian tanks rolling on Berlin couldn’t be resisted – the Russians could tell the pathetic Polish army to stand aside or be destroyed.
Germany would fold in a day – Ursula von der Leyen eviscerated the German military. Germany has less than 100 operable tanks, thanks to Ursula.
It would be a subliminal pleasure for Russians to see Germany destroyed – suitable revenge for the deaths of 25 million Russians in WW-II. The German Greens are a bunch of dumb-asses.
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Jul 14 2023 2:06 utc | 124
F-16 in the Russo/Ukrainian War:
Last year Biden said that when the F-16s come to Ukraine, it will be nuclear war. I don’t think he was saying this as a warning. Instead, he was telling it how it would be.
Recently, the USA insisted that any F-16s going to Ukraine must be able to carry and to launch US B61 nuclear bombs.
Russia’s formal response to the coming F-16s by Lavrov is that Russia will treat F-16s in Ukraine as a nuclear threat.
I have no idea when the F-16s will be going to Ukraine. Whenever that date approaches, it may be best to get ready for nuclear war.
Since the F-16s in Ukraine may not be very far away, a better mode of operation may be to start getting ready for nuclear war as fast as you can.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 2:17 utc | 125
much scorned roloslavsky I nevertheless trust much more than the blithe rubbish that so frequently gets trotted out here.
Here he is telling the facts about Popov. https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/putin-keeps-his-word-wagner-escorted?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=795903&post_id=134684547&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
Posted by: arthur brogard | Jul 14 2023 2:18 utc | 126
One point I heard someone with a military background make about the F16 is they need a pristine runway.
No ghetto runways hastily improvised along highways.
Maybe it was Ritter or MacGregor.
If true then just send loads of cheap drones to crater the runways of every airfield. The debris alone make it impossible to take off.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 14 2023 2:56 utc | 127
@ Comacho in Chief | Jul 13 2023 22:06 utc | 89
good question.. my understanding is it hinges on the treaty overseeing passage of ships thru the bosphorous and the dardanalles..
Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits
this from the link above :
Russo-Ukrainian War
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian government appealed to Turkey to exercise its authority under the Montreux Convention to limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. At least six Russian warships and a submarine had crossed the Turkish straits in February.[51] After initial reluctance, attributed to the country’s close ties with both Russia and Ukraine,[51] Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced on 27 February that his government would legally recognise the Russian invasion as a “war”, which provides grounds for implementing the convention with respect to military vessels.[7] This blockage of naval vessels also applies to NATO powers who cannot now move their vessels from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. However, Çavuşoğlu reiterated that pursuant to the terms of the agreement, Turkey cannot block Russian warships based in the Black Sea from returning to their registered base.[51] Around February 27–28, Turkey refused permission for three out of four Russian warships to enter the Black Sea as their home base was not on the Black Sea.[52]
Up until 2022, Russia had deployed its Kilo-class submarines from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, arguing that these vessels were ultimately destined for “maintenance” at facilities in the Baltic Sea. There was criticism of this since the submarines would then remain deployed in the Mediterranean for an extensive period of time. Since this was becoming more difficult to justify, one analysis in May 2022 suggested that the Russians may have found a work-around to the problem, potentially using the country’s internal waterways to permit transit to vessels up to the size of the Kilo-class boats between the Black Sea and the Baltic. The ability to use the internal waterways to facilitate such a transit has yet to be confirmed.[53]
In October 2022, two Russian Federation ships, that had been refused permission for nine months, the missile cruiser Varyag, the flagship of the Russian Pacific Fleet, and Admiral Tributs, a large anti-submarine destroyer, left the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal.[54]
Posted by: james | Jul 14 2023 3:07 utc | 128
@ Ghost of Zanon | Jul 14 2023 2:56 utc | 130
that is what i remember reading about also… f 16 are very susceptible to small debris on a runway and can’t do it..
Posted by: james | Jul 14 2023 3:08 utc | 129
ZH has a posting up wit the title
Biden Mobilizes 3,000 Reservists To Europe To Augment ‘Operation Atlantic Resolve’
The quote
President Joe Biden today issued an executive order approving the mobilization of select reserve forces with up to 3,000 personnel, augmenting the armed forces in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve.
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility.
In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.
This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.…..
So, first Abrams tanks were ‘no’, then F-16s were a red-line we wouldn’t cross, then cluster bombs were a war-crime, and now as close to ‘boots on the ground’ as we have been in a war against Russia?
Many questions arise about this action – Why reservists and not active military? (is it somehow less ‘boots on the ground’-ish if they are reservists?) Why now? (is another major Hunter Biden headline about to drop?)
At first blush, this may appear to be nothing significant to the casual observer. Maybe the reserves will just be there in a “support” or “advisory” capacity. But they will be there.
I think that desperation is evident here and hope that there are some adults in “the room”.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 14 2023 3:18 utc | 130
They have technology that can sink every Nato ship parked in the Baltic sea or Black Sea.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2023 22:27 utc | 93
Hi Unimperator,
1) Sincere thanks for the response
2) Even if Russia *can* sink the NATO ships, could NATO maneuver Russia into a position where Russia would feel that they *must* sink those ships, or does it have an alternative?
Put another way, can a sufficiently motivated/patient NATO succeed in slowly strangling Russia over a period of decades?
Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 14 2023 3:30 utc | 131
Put another way, can a sufficiently motivated/patient NATO succeed in slowly strangling Russia over a period of decades?
Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 14 2023 3:30 utc | 134
I’m in the US. Name one product of Western manufacture that I can’t order from China. What?… Amazon doesn’t deliver to Moscow?
Posted by: comrade simba | Jul 14 2023 3:41 utc | 132
Posted by: Morongobill | Jul 14 2023 1:38 utc | 119
Thanks for the link–I have never seen it before.
The only part I am not sure about is part of the money quote:
The Masters of Empire now face a no-win scenario. They must abandon their failed Ukraine gambit — and inexorably, over the next few years, yield to maximalist Russian demands regarding the roll-back of NATO to its pre-1997 borders — or else yield to the mad impulse of a futile attempt to subjugate Russia by force of arms in the form of direct US/NATO intervention into this war.
I can see many ways that NATO falls apart, but I don’t quite understand why it is a certainty, and I am especially unclear why it’s a forgone conclusion that NATO will be rolled back to its pre-1997 borders.
It could happen, of course–I just don’t think that William Schryver has made a convincing case for that part.
Personally, I think that one or two of the NATO states (e.g. Germany, France, Italy, Turkey) will come to the conclusion that it makes far more sense to befriend Russia and abandon the NATO alliance. Offhand, I would guess France just because befriending Russia would make it the most powerful country in western Europe, and Germany can’t survive without the US export market (and since it also can’t survive without Russian energy, its future looks pretty bleak, but I haven’t given it a lot of thought or research. Also, Turkey, I think, can likely continue to play both sides without having to choose either, and so I guess it has no need to abandon NATO.
Random thoughts…Either way, thanks for the link!
Posted by: Comacho In Chief | Jul 14 2023 3:48 utc | 133
Posted by: james | Jul 14 2023 3:07 utc | 131
Thank you for the response! I am increasingly certain that Turkey, for all its flaws and problems, is going to be the most important European country over the upcoming decades…
Posted by: comrade simba | Jul 14 2023 3:41 utc | 135
What?… Amazon doesn’t deliver to Moscow?
I really just don’t know what to make of the long term situation. In this current war, it seems pretty clear (to me, anyway, and I assume to most people on this site), that time is on Russia’s side. What I am trying to figure out is whether time is on Russia’s side over the much longer term. Maybe the answer is obvious to most people, or maybe the answer is obviously unknowable. I just personally have no idea.
If NATO can strangle Moscow, then maybe this marks the high point of Russian strength. If NATO is powerless, then maybe this just marks the beginning of Russian ascendency. I’m just looking for insights one way or the other.
Posted by: Comacho In Chief | Jul 14 2023 4:03 utc | 134
Re: Posted by: Comacho In Chief | Jul 14 2023 4:03 utc | 137
Time is on Russia’s side just the same as Time was on the Soviet Union’s side in the 1950s – ever heard of the Russian technological advantage as demonstrated by the Sputnik satellite?
Tells you all you need to know about time and how it works.
Posted by: Julian | Jul 14 2023 4:09 utc | 135
Posted by: S | Jul 13 2023 18:30 utc | 42
Does this sound like the real S? I smell a rat!
The Wikipedia page uses this “news agency” as a resource. Just Wikipedia in itself is the first clue.
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/07/2023/64af0ab19a7947aa682eda9c
Interesting that rbc only focuses on negative news and not on any of the usual Russian battlefield successes. Again, my ratdar is going berserk.
Russia military are a stickler for the rules.
The rotation of combat troops on the front line is the responsibility of the officer above, example a platoon, by the company commander. A company by the battalion commander and so on. Hands up those who believe an entire Army occupies the first line of trenches! So, the “complaint” itself sounds odd.
A completely uncharacteristic and unhinged commentator using S moniker is just one coincidence too many. I believe this is just another attempt to discredit MoA.
Another reason I for one, do not miss RSH.
Posted by: Suresh | Jul 14 2023 4:23 utc | 136
RIA – Three drones were shot down by air defense on Thursday a few kilometers from Voronezh, there were no casualties or damage, the governor said
Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2023 4:56 utc | 137
Re: 2024 Campaign season
Barflies – my predictions
1) NATO further attempts to destabilize RFs periphery
2) NATO exerts great efforts to co-opt neutrals
3) NATO has 150,000 sheep dipped soldiers fighting in-Country
4) The Ukrainian Theater remains a battle of attrition
5) NATO preps for the 2025 glorious counter offensive with 750,000 troops
6) De-dollarization continues apace.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 5:30 utc | 138
whirlX @ 107
It is very clear that if flown from foreign bases, and planes and bases will be the target, as same as within Ukraine. If AEGIS changes to an offensive mode those will be taken out, too. Search for security is a very flexible military and political tool. I do not think that Lavrov or Putin bluff, on those issues.
RESPONSE: Agreed! Neither Lavov nor Putin are bluffing about F-16s flying towards Russian targets. They will be taken out. If any of these F-16s are able to deliver a nuke against a Russian target, Russia will immediately launch against the USA and NATO.
Perhaps, Russia will go ahead and launch before the F-16s are flying in Ukraine. The Russians already know it is just a matter of time before one or more nukes fall upon its homeland.
The recent 4400 page document of the West’s plan to take down Russia may already be in the Russian hands. If so, yet again a sensitive document becomes public that the Russians could easily obtain. Perhaps this document outlines times and events the West has planned to take Russia down.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 5:31 utc | 139
Time on who’s side ?
If the 87% holds together plus accelerates de-dollarization, then Washington goes bankrupt. The global war ends
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 5:37 utc | 140
Exile @ 141
Barflies – my predictions
1) NATO further attempts to destabilize RFs periphery
2) NATO exerts great efforts to co-opt neutrals
3) NATO has 150,000 sheep dipped soldiers fighting in-Country
4) The Ukrainian Theater remains a battle of attrition
5) NATO preps for the 2025 glorious counter offensive with 750,000 troops
6) De-dollarization continues apace.
RESPONSE: Thanks for sharing. No doubt about your 1) and 6) predictions.
Because of 6), I don’t think the USA will wait until 2025 to seriously attempt to take down the Russian Federation.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 5:38 utc | 141
paddy @ 109
RESPONSE REGARDING THE F-16s:
Like your comment:
“what z con=medians wants that profits the lockheeds and boeings he will get.”
Very clever!
I am sure the z con=median will be begging for F-22s and F-35s when the F16s fail if there is time.
The F-16s may be sufficient to precipitate a Russian launch against the USA and the rest of NATO.
If that is the case the z con=median will have nobody to beg from anymore.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 5:47 utc | 142
because of De-Dollarization…. I don’t think the USA will wait until 2025 to seriously attempt to take down the Russian Federation.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 5:38 utc | 144
Interesting insight – Yellen is certainly worried about the rapid pace of De-Dollarization. On the other hand, the Pentagon isn’t remotely ready for peer-to-peer fight. I’d hate to think that the DNC thinks having a glorious counteroffensive in 2024 will unite-the-nation-behind-out-President.
Maybe you are correct – the pressure for NATO to go full on attack next year must be immense.
TBD
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 6:08 utc | 143
Comacho In Chief @ 137
I really just don’t know what to make of the long term situation. In this current war, it seems pretty clear (to me, anyway, and I assume to most people on this site), that time is on Russia’s side. What I am trying to figure out is whether time is on Russia’s side over the much longer term. Maybe the answer is obvious to most people, or maybe the answer is obviously unknowable. I just personally have no idea.
If NATO can strangle Moscow, then maybe this marks the high point of Russian strength. If NATO is powerless, then maybe this just marks the beginning of Russian ascendency. I’m just looking for insights one way or the other.
RESPONSE: The problem with making timing projections regarding the Russo/Ukrainian war is that the escalations are not linear.
Because of the exponential increase in the escalations, I would not say that time is on Russia’s side. Soon F-16s will be released to attack Russian targets. Any of those F-16s could be armed with B61 nuclear bombs. This will be a scale of escalation that the RF can not tolerate.
This is one example of time not necessarily being on the Russian’s side.
NOTE: The USA has no choice but to ramp up the escalations in order to protect its current hegemony status. This is the snare the USA has itself in. It can’t get out. Soon the hunter will come to check his snares. The end of the snared prey does not look good.
Posted by: young | Jul 14 2023 6:22 utc | 144
Biden sending US reservists into Europe to strengthen Atlantic Resolve (or something like that). Might be time soon to steer clear of Nato states bordering Russia.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 6:43 utc | 145
Headline from RT: Marcel Salikhov: Here’s how the end of the US dollar’s global dominance will play out
Much of the world now supports de-dollarization. It will happen, but not as a “big bang”
Interesting article. It’s gonna take a long time to seriously diminish dollar’s position.
Posted by: RB | Jul 14 2023 7:12 utc | 146
@Comacho in Chief | Jul 13 2023 22:06 utc | 89
If:
1) NATO lasts intact,
2) Sweden and Finland are both members, AND
3) Turkey for whatever reason becomes heavily pro-US and blocks Russian shipping
does Russia have a reliable way for its ships to access the Atlantic without relying on NATO goodwill (ie, could NATO choose to block Russia’s access to the Atlantic at will?
NATO has no way to block Russia’s access to the Atlantic.
Russia has free access to the Atlantic from the ice free port of Murmansk. Øresund has always been under NATOs eyes (Denmark), Swedens entry makes no practical difference in that regard. Turkey will not block the Bosporus, they are not that stupid.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2023 7:12 utc | 147
@Lex | Jul 13 2023 22:28 utc | 95
NATO isn’t going to collapse or dissolve because some leaves. It’s just going to continue becoming an irrelevant money suck because nobody knows how to end the bureaucracy. The show’s not over if everyone refuses to turn off the lights.
But they also do not know how to keep the bureaucracy running, that is why the Quisling Stoltenberg was told to stay on, even after announcing his resignation twice. They refuse to turn off the lights, but they don’t know how to change the light bulbs.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2023 7:23 utc | 148
@unimperator | Jul 14 2023 6:43 utc | 148
You do know all these troops suck huge amounts of money from the host countries, it’s a protection racket at state level. Now there’s a fight within nato to get as many deals as possible. It seems US-UK want to get money mostly from Poland to Finland region. Schlitz is close to send thousands of troops to Romania, stealing it from Macaron who only has a few hundred there. Probably because of their president who is a German ethnic and easy to arrest (wife included, for multiple reasons) nato plant. The same will happen to Bulgaria, a poor country but very involved in Ukr war. When their military resources will be zero, nato will send many troops there (“protection from Russia”, of course) and never ever leave, sending them directly into third world. Zero costs, only profits.
Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2023 7:25 utc | 149
psychohistorian @ 133
At first blush, this may appear to be nothing significant to the casual observer. Maybe the reserves will just be there in a “support” or “advisory” capacity. But they will be there.
This hybrid war on Russia had been decided on and has been moving forward since at least 1997. It was all about stealth and implementation through incrementalism, all of the public and a good part of the elites were brought along unwittingly. In that light there is nothing insignificant. The only casual observers left are the msm brainwashed lemmings.
I think that desperation is evident here and hope that there are some adults in “the room”
All the adults in the room, politics, military, academic, media, have been chased out, there too since about 1997. The door was shut and locked from the inside in 2014 readied for the HRC war launch in 2018.
There can be no adults in the room, only hope is that global corporate capitalism rebels against the neocon misadventure and pries the door open, unlikely. Now we know by Epstein befriended Bill Gates, there are probably many other adults across corporate board rooms compromised in one way or an other. It was a well laid plan.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 14 2023 8:00 utc | 150
Ukrainian channel Legitimny:
For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the only non-mined sector of the front is Bakhmut, where Bankovaya plans to deploy large forces to achieve success. Presenting the capture of at least part of the city as a great victory.
In the Azov direction, everything is mined in 5 rows of defense, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering huge losses. After the first June assaults, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost a huge part of the equipment, it was customary to throw forward the infantry, which should clear the path for the equipment with their feet.
Thus, Bankovaya saves equipment by sacrificing people.
Now the trapping of men in Ukraine has intensified – this is a consequence of a failed offensive.
Due to heavy casualties and “clearing with feet” tactics, conflicts break out within the brigades. Many officers on the front line are opposed to this tactic, as it results in heavy casualties among personnel.
Many predict that from Zelensky, soldier families may soon be asked to “drain” thousands of soldiers for the sake of their own political whim.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1679776407130447872
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 9:01 utc | 151
Posted by: ak74 | Jul 14 2023 1:10 utc | 113
The goal of US foreign policy is to render whichever nation Armies weaker that IDF.
Capital of the World to become The Jewish State Capital of Jerusalem.
Trouble is, in doing so, NATO has become the seven dwarf army.
Well done…
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jul 14 2023 9:38 utc | 152
EU bank making 400m euros available to Ukraine….Germany another 800m in military equipment……is it clearer there is a possibility this is going to turn into more an emphasis of Germany v Russia.. ( because USA presence in Germany pushing even more)?
Posted by: Jo | Jul 14 2023 10:08 utc | 153
Pour les Francophones, a voir le debat contradictoire sur le conflit, Michel Collon/Jacques Baud d’un cote, 2 profs “tres au courant” de la situationde l’autre.
2H45, avec intervention du public present.
A voir les commentaires sous la video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drgjOH3v7Pk
Posted by: FromFrance | Jul 14 2023 10:18 utc | 154
@Suresh #139:
Does this sound like the real S?
…
A completely uncharacteristic and unhinged commentator using S moniker…
All the comments above signed with S were written by me. There’s nothing “uncharacteristic” or “unhinged” about them. My comments #42 and #48 present sufficient evidence (for people with a functioning brain) that Major General Ivan Popov is, in fact, real. What’s unhinged is your continued clinging to this conspiratard theory, even going as far as accusing me of not being me.
I believe this is just another attempt to discredit MoA.
Nothing discredits MoA more than your conspiratard shit.
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 10:40 utc | 155
Posted by: FromFrance | Jul 14 2023 10:18 utc | 157
Merci. M. Baud is well thought of here.
This is Bastille Day, n’est ce pas? Let me wish our French flies well today.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 14 2023 10:47 utc | 156
How is it possible that Ukrainians are not tired of this war?
Everywhere we see how they are dying in great numbers, but they are still sending more and more soldiers to death.
Are Ukrainians irrational as ISIS?
Posted by: Simplex | Jul 14 2023 10:55 utc | 157
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 14 2023 2:56 utc | 130
> One point I heard someone with a military background make > about the F16 is they need a pristine runway.
The F16 needs a smooth clean runway because its jet intake is close to the ground under its nose, risking foreign object ingestion. Jets ingest foreign object even more vigorously than Mia Khalifa.
Posted by: bluejay | Jul 14 2023 11:10 utc | 158
@FromFrance 157
thx!
lets see if I can make it with my limited French and the automated Engl. subs.
Its funny since just yesterday I watched 90 min. of Q&A with Baud in Germany.
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 11:12 utc | 159
@FromFrance 157
(YT translate is funny: “Voltarian” becomes “Vulcanic Creed” and “Mr. Collon” now is “Mr. Collomb”)
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 11:18 utc | 160
re: Jacques Baud in Germany
for the sake of completeness here the 2 Jacques Baud videos from Germany.
However I assume there won´t be much new to any barfly.
Baud´s talk 75 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tReTqfyOKRk
Q&A 90 min. which I watched (sometimes he doesn´t exactly answer the questions.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFK-YTRDwlA
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 11:24 utc | 161
Simplicus presented the various options behind Popov scene. What’s noteworthy is the much more serious problems with AFU, and Nato mercenaries, which contributes to Nato losing this pet project war.
Gone unnoticed was that the head of AFU 47th brigade resigned too due to the disagreements how the brigade was used (namely, thrown into slaughter for nothing).
Valery Markus, chief sergeant of the 47th brigade of the Ukraine, announced his resignation to a lower position due to disagreement with the command staff.
“I strongly disagree with the decisions on the use and development of the 47th brigade,” he clarifies. Also in his report, he declares that there are no punishments for the incompetence of the higher officer corps of the brigade, and calls Major Ivan Shalamaga an immoral degenerate.
Recall that it was the 47th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that became the star of commercials with columns of burning Western armored vehicles, and their Bradleys are collecting minefields and anti-tank missiles in the Zaporozhye direction, where they are now trying to attack.
It’s funny that back in June, Markus himself cheerfully announced the success of the counteroffensive and some deep breakthroughs in the defense, however, as you can see, something went wrong and one of the most publicized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost its chief sergeant.
This guy was one of the very top stars of the AFU, having given many interviews to top Western publications, done photo shoots with Zelensky and Zaluzhny, and was even rated as having the largest social media following of any figure in the Ukrainian armed forces:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-71423-popovs-sound-and-fury
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 11:43 utc | 162
Posted by: Simplex | Jul 14 2023 10:55 utc | 160
AFU drugs their soldiers during attacks. What’s noteworthy is the drug is Captagon, same stuff ISIS uses.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 11:44 utc | 163
“How is it possible that Ukrainians are not tired of this war?
Everywhere we see how they are dying in great numbers, but they are still sending more and more soldiers to death.
Are Ukrainians irrational as ISIS?”
What made millions of europeans ready to fix bayonets, go over the top and run across barbed wire entanglements towards machine guns?
There you have it, some things have become even more effective: modern drugs likely beat cheap alcohol hands down. But in general don’t discount belief in the “cause”: even if they may have reservations about themselves becoming the poor bastard to die for his country it does not mean that in general they want the war to stop before they achieve victory etc.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jul 14 2023 12:30 utc | 164
@Erichwwk | Jul 14 2023 0:48 utc | 110
> And how is one to know when the Aegis system is configured to launch Tomahawk nuclear weapons, especially when the claim that the system is defensive is technically suspect, ie FALSE ?
A quick visual inspection of the spy will tell you what it’s immediate configuration is.
In it’s defence mode it should be configured as “Look Up” and the radar will be physically orientated to “look up”.
In FFB mode (forward fire base) it’ll be configured “Look Ahead” with the antenna pointed at the target horizon.
The doc time for switching modes is about 2.5 hours on paper ~ though you could probably do it a lot faster with some common sense and practice.
There’s no immediate way to determine what’s in the MK41’s though. For that you’d need the inventory report or to open them up.
Posted by: S.O. | Jul 14 2023 12:41 utc | 165
Simplex @160: “Are Ukrainians irrational as ISIS?”
Is it so surprising? Americans themselves are not so far from ISIS-level irrationality, and Ukrainian patriots worship the American delusional self-image projected by mass media, so why would they be any less cognitively broken?
Dying cultures go insane. Fundamentalist Islam, American Exceptionalism, Imperial Britain, and the various cultures of the European mini-states are all headed to the shit-can of history. The Ukraine, whose only real culture was Soviet, and who have been brainwashed into hating the Soviets, hate the only culture they ever had, but that doesn’t save them from going mad as they lose that culture. Their hatred of that which gave them humanity only amplifies their insanity as they lose that which gave them their humanity.
It is sad and seriously messed up. Historic-level tragedy piled upon historic-level tragedy.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 14 2023 12:56 utc | 166
via sputniknews today
Ministers are going to discuss for the first time European Commission’s proposal on the review of the Multiannual Financial Framework, including Ukraine facility of 50 billion euros … As part of this review of multiannual financial framework we have 50 billion euros Ukraine facility, which consists of 17 billion euros in grants and 33 million euros in loans,” Dombrovskis said ahead of the meeting in Brussels.
The facility covers the period from 2024 to 2027, the commission’s vice-president added, expressing hope that other donors will also make their contributions to provide financial help to Ukraine.
The EU has provided Ukraine with a funding of 9 billion euros so far this year, disbursing 1.5 billion euros on a monthly basis, Dombrovskis also said.
December 2020, the EU countries adopted the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) worth 1.1 trillion euros for the period of 2021-2027. Along with the Next Generation EU recovery package, the MFF provides a framework regulating the annual budget of the European Union.
Last month, the European Commission proposed a mid-term revision of the MFF, increasing the funding by 75 billion euros for the remaining three-year period.
_———
Greek prime minister announces
I mean not only the approval of [the delivery of] F-35 [fighter jets], which is very important, but also the possibility of getting surplus [military] equipment, significant surplus equipment that will be given to us for free. That is what the US is doing and has every reason to do it to a greater extent for a good ally like Greece,” Mitsotakis said in an interview with Greek broadcaster while expressing hope that F-35s would be delivered in 2028.
Posted by: Jo | Jul 14 2023 13:07 utc | 167
Posted by: Jo | Jul 14 2023 13:07 utc | 170
EU has a history of various kinds of centrally planned projects and investments.
RePower EU has a price tag of 400 billion euros (renewable energy in EUropean states).
The subsidy plan to produce domestic semiconductor chip was several tens of billions euros (probably means plowing money to existing western companies like Intel).
The project for building renewable energy and other investments in Africa cost several hundred billion euros.
What’s another 50 billion or 15-20 billion annually for Ukraine?
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 13:29 utc | 168
I have to wonder if the Russians might not be thrilled to see the Europeans
throwing their defense budgets into the black hole F-35, unlikely to be delivered and useless if it is delivered.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jul 14 2023 13:30 utc | 169
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jul 14 2023 13:30 utc | 172
Nato will be stuck with the F-35 well into the 2050s. Whether it’s flawed or not doesn’t matter (it is), since vassals will buy it anyway because they are told to do so. The incentive to make another design is therefore very low.
It should be a relatively good reason for celebration.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 13:32 utc | 170
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 14 2023 1:33 utc | 117
Thank you for the hard work behind your posting. Much appreciated and in further need of data and analysis. The big Russian military bureaucracy still seems sclerotic.
——————————————————————————-
Can we stop with the F-16 and nuclear war mini threads already. The F-16 shortfalls for use in Ukraine have been well documented in many prior postings. There should be no need to cover old ground.
Same for nuclear this that or the other. B-61 gravity bombs is all the US has stored in Europe. AEGIS is designed to coordinate launching from various platforms. Whose finger on those buttons? Not Ukies.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 14 2023 13:38 utc | 171
Does anyone know where to find a good analysis of alleged Russian use of cluster bombs?
team10tim | Jul 13 2023 18:06 utc | 39
—————————————
No, it seems.
HRW posts a pic of what they say are deployed RU cluster munitions in a storage area in Kharkov. The Ukies are now famous for staging war crimes.
The Pentagon recently claimed that they have evidence. They are not presenting it and it seems a new found item for them.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 14 2023 13:44 utc | 172
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jul 14 2023 13:30 utc | 172
Nato will be stuck with the F-35 well into the 2050s. Whether it’s flawed or not doesn’t matter (it is), since vassals will buy it anyway because they are told to do so. The incentive to make another design is therefore very low.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 14 2023 13:32 utc | 173
———————————————————–
The US discovered that dogfighting with the Mach2 F-105 Starfighter was not feasible. So, I grew up to the sound of sonic booms going off over the North Sea since all NATO countries were forced or bribed (Prince Bernhard – Netherlands) to go all out.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 14 2023 13:48 utc | 173
Ghost @ 130
Exactly. This would work in Poland and Romania as well. It could be done effectively with very small drones, a size or two smaller than the Geran. NATO could complain about littering and look foolish.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 14 2023 13:53 utc | 174
The Masters of Empire now face a no-win scenario.
Morongobill | Jul 14 2023 1:38 utc | 119
—————————————————-
How do you fight a war that you cannot win?
All told, Rotmistrov’s 5th Guards Tank Army lost at least 250 tanks at Prokhorovka, and only destroyed 3 Panzers
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/red-army-rising-kursk-and-beyond.
————————————————————-
Kursk-Prokhorovka illustrates the issue. The Russians were the major losers in the tank battle but victorious across the rest of the large Kursk front. Hitler called off Operation Citadell overnight, needing his resources elsewhere in fighting a war that could not be won. His General Gehlen called it right in 1943.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 14 2023 14:08 utc | 175
Holy “S” – numerous posts
Why is an alternate viewpoint a conspiracy? It used to be that disagreements with countering opinions would be discussed and rebutted but the idea the other side was promoting some sort of conspiracy never entered into either person’s thought process. To exclaim: “conspiracy!” means that one has no answer for the position the other has taken or they have no respect for it; thus are diminished persons in society. I’m guessing the latter is true for you.
Jul 14 2023 13:30 utc | 172
f-35: carries 16000 pounds of mil spec kerosene!, and scarcely dashes over mach 1. and lost in every aerial combat maneuver task against f-16.
f-35: like the f-16 of the late 1970’s has a one source pratt and whitney engine (large airplane programs the engine is a separate large program of design, etc) in f-35 case the engine runs too hot to be reliable when it tries to meet spec’ed demands. in case of f-16 the usaf re-started the general electric engine design stopped when they made the p&w mistake. f-35 is beginning a so called engine ‘upgrade’ program, not sure whether they will re-open ge competition.
the f-35 as delivered needs a tech refresh to add data sharing volume for the radar needed to replace the original which with 15 years delay is out dated!
one incentive to waste money on f-35 and other pentagon scams is the buyer gets a bit of technology, none that matter, but a tiny piece!
what version f-35 will the 500 plus offloaded on ‘allies”!
Posted by: paddy | Jul 14 2023 14:17 utc | 177
Jul 14 2023 10:08 utc | 156
how many euros will the euro central [printing press/] bank print for ukranazistan?
and when do the debtor countries rejoice in inflating away their debts?
Posted by: paddy | Jul 14 2023 14:25 utc | 178
@S #77
We have NO names of any pilots killed.
We have one very suspicious photo of a K-52 wreckage and not much else.Could easily have been a detonated helicopter and not one that was shot down.
The Kiev regime have been putting out fake, heavily manipulated and out of context photos all the time on “destroyed” Russian tanks, planes and helicopters that have been proven to be false all the time. Why Russia canT do the same for once? We have gone a month into the counteroffensive without hearing about any air losses in Banderaland for Russia, flying hundreds of sorties in the Donbass and south Ukraine.You want to believe that a single Pantsir S-1 complex on the move took down 6 Russian aircraft?!!
Does the imaginary Popov claiming that Russian soldiers are “sitting ducks” for Ukrainian artillery truly make sense? I don’t think so.
You would have expected comments about supposed lack of airsupport, and the reorganisation required following the ukie destruction of the dam to be at the forefront of his thoughts – but not any mention of it at all.
Do you seriously think Gurulyov, having commanded the 58th Army in 2012–2016, does not know who is commanding it now? Do you think he “invented” Major General Popov?
9-11 or the moon landings would have probably required several thousand people to have been in on it for these events to have been faked, which of course is highly unlikely. For the fictitious “General Popov”, you are asking for about 6 people to be in on this fake – not exactly the most difficult thing to pull off.
Alexander Rogers is a fabulous blogger. A much trusted source.
“What utter and complete bullshit!
General Major Ivan Popov is real and was, until recently, the commander of the 58th Army. Here’s an article published a month ago in MoD’s official publication Zvezda:
The commander of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District Popov reveals the details of the night battle in the Zaporozhye direction (Zvezda, Ignat Dalakyan & Nikolay Baranov, June 8, 2023 — in Russian)
The article also features an audio recording of Popov.
So what? All is means is that he was invented 1 month ag. As with the Wagner “rebellion” this Popov guy is clearly a fake. Why wouldn’t the destruction of the dam feature much in his rants either? It’s all very suspicious.
Posted by: Jimmy | Jul 14 2023 14:26 utc | 179
re: Banderistas and UKR politics
this German-language piece by Moss Robeson on the new Pantheon of Ukr. Heroes:
“Banderization of Ukraine
How the “Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists” rewrites the history of World War II and the Holocaust – with Washington’s support”
https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/454683.erinnerungspolitik-banderisierung-der-ukraine.html
Robeson´s Substack site:
Bandera Lobby Blog
https://banderalobby.substack.com/
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 14:29 utc | 180
I don’t know why barflies are disputing S’s commentary. He’s been here many years and is a Russian living within Russia where he has access to info we outside can’t hope to gather or learn.
@ William Gruff | Jul 14 2023 12:56 utc | 169
william, i always enjoy your posts and look for them when they appear – even if i don’t tell you this! keep it up.. thanks..
Posted by: james | Jul 14 2023 15:03 utc | 182
Russia’s Security Council meeting’s primary topic was “additional measures [for] protection of critical facilities.” But that’s all the info we’re given.
Ghost of Zanon | Jul 14 2023 2:56 utc | 130
james | Jul 14 2023 3:08 utc | 132
bluejay | Jul 14 2023 11:10 utc | 161
Ukraine will Activate Babushka Brigade to Support F-16 Operations
Approximately 200 members of the Ukrainian Babushka Brigade with be activated for each F-16 Ukraine receives. The Babushkas, equipped with brooms, will be trained to clean one kilometer of runway every 3 minutes. This will ensure a pristine runway free of everything will be available for flight operations.
“Nothing gets past a Babushka’s broom”, is an old Slavic proverb.
Posted by: Jerr | Jul 14 2023 15:07 utc | 184
Big Serge’s piece on Kursk is interesting to read, I agree
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/red-army-rising-kursk-and-beyond.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 14 2023 14:08 utc | 178
It’s remarkable how similar the Battle of Kursk was to today’s events, at least in Big Serge’s interpretation (obviously influenced by current events). You can see why the Russians had no trouble this year in coming up with a defence that would put a stop to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. They’d been through it all before.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 14 2023 15:15 utc | 185
Jimmy @ 182
I’m of the opinion that the Wagner rebellion was theater not that I know why but guess to rebrand Wagner in some way, tone them down in the public eye, and move them to the northern theater, maybe to take Kharkov. But there were pictures of the funeral for the downed pilots, for 6-7 in one place, out in the open, maybe an airfield, not many people present, all very low key. If real such a mess would be kept low key, but if fake keeping it all limited to a small airbase would be the easy way to fake it.
No opinion on Popov, beyond my peanut gallery purview.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 14 2023 15:17 utc | 186
@ Jerr | Jul 14 2023 15:07 utc | 187
lol… good luck with that!! thanks for the laugh…
Posted by: james | Jul 14 2023 15:39 utc | 187
and when do the debtor countries rejoice in inflating away their debts?
Zh has an article up saying that the debt service (interest) in the US is about to hit $1 Trillion annually.
As interest rates continue to rise, a death spiral could develop, suddenly.
The nature of exponents and debt is that you don’t know you’re screwed until the moment the giant phallus enters your rear end.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 14 2023 15:53 utc | 188
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 14 2023 15:15 utc | 188
I think he misses out a critical reason the Germans, and now the Ukrainians fight on. From childhood we are told both mythical stories and historical accounts, or a combination of the two, where protagonists, outnumbered and close to defeat, fight on and are saved. This ‘backs to the wall’ attitude and fighting ‘to the last round’ synchronises with our biological threat response to fight (note, the options are fight, flight, freeze and fiddle, not surrender). Germany fought on because she thought that as long as she was fighting there was a hope of events turning her way, she also vastly under-estimated the reserves Russia could draw on, and consequently over-estimated the damage she was inflicting. But, in an existential conflict a nation subsumes the characteristics of the people it comprises and Germany, in ‘43 was fighting for her very life, holding on for the miracle that she had been told could happen, just as long as she did not give up. Which is why the NATO promises of new equipment is so cynically exploitative of this facet of human nature, in essence, the West are weaponising hope to keep the Ukrainians fighting.
As for Kursk, the Germans were tactically superior, operationally equivalent and strategically inferior, the Russians the reverse, so German defeat was all but assured. Today, I’d rate both Ukraine and Russia as tactical equivalents, but Russia is now operationally superior and strategically unmatched (the disparity is so marked), so the end result is a foregone conclusion. Again, an outcome the West are all too aware off but they, like their proxies, are also trapped in this belief that events can be reversed, however fantastical the likelihood of that circumstance.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 14 2023 16:54 utc | 189
@ Milites | Jul 14 2023 16:54 utc | 192
Still, at the first page of every diplomatic school book, the first sentence is: Never go to the War against Russia.
And your comments and the other comments, including Big Serge’s Kursk essay , paint a picture that is showing very well – why.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 14 2023 17:22 utc | 190
@Milton #179:
Why is an alternate viewpoint a conspiracy? It used to be that disagreements with countering opinions would be discussed and rebutted…
Yeah, that is exactly what I did in my comments #42 and #48. I discussed and rebutted the claim stated by Arioch in #2 that Popov was “invented” by Russian liberal media.
To exclaim: “conspiracy!” means that one has no answer for the position the other has taken or they have no respect for it; thus are diminished persons in society. I’m guessing the latter is true for you.
I have provided a detailed answer to Arioch’s position. Arioch has replied to some of my points in #74, but completely ignored the comments made by high-ranking Russian officials Gurulyov and Turchak describing Popov as the Commander of the 58th Army. I have repeated this argument in #77, to which Arioch did not respond.
For my comments, I was accused by Suresh in #139 of not being myself, i.e., that someone else has written my comments using my name. So it was Suresh who had no answer for my position, nor any respect for it—opting to smear me as an impostor instead—and thus, according to your logic, is a “diminished person in society.”
(To be clear, I don’t think having no answer or respect for someone’s position makes one a “diminished person in society”—I’m just following Milton’s logic here.)
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 17:24 utc | 191
since the 3000 US reservists are all ove the news, what about the 101st Airborne Division in Romania. Almost 5000 men. Nobody talked about that since.
A bit of hysteria, perhaps?
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 17:50 utc | 192
@ S | Jul 14 2023 17:24 utc | 194
Although one can indefinitely go into the depth on everything, you made very well researched observations on that particular issue. So what is the trouble – it is/was all over the Russian media. To trust or to not trust that is personal, but
Wikipedia was updated, there are articles on that and it is very clear on who is who. RF doesn’t need a conspiracy there, but is applying obfuscation and fog for its own echelons purge. That strengthens the military from RF’s perspective.
Doing that in the West would stop the war and cause NATO to concede, because they would upgrade the understanding how events might escalate catastrophically for them. One never learns.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 14 2023 17:50 utc | 193
This is to S
I have provided a detailed answer to Arioch’s position. Arioch has replied to some of my points in #74, but completely ignored the comments made by high-ranking Russian officials Gurulyov and Turchak describing Popov as the Commander of the 58th Army. I have repeated this argument in #77, to which Arioch did not respond.
So what? There is nothing at all unusual about them being in on the con. Wasn’t Turchak the guy who went to some part of Kharkov region and proclaimed it would always be Russian? In actuality there was never any attempt properly to seize Kharkov the city,all operations in Kharkov were as a means to secure more routes into Lugansk at the time.
Didn’t one high profile military official last year state the next objective was the landbridge to Transdniestria? When you look at how they have approached Nikolaev,or the grain deal, this was clearly never the case. Those are 2 clear examples of Russian officials deliberately spreading misinformation.
More importantly for this obvious piece of disinformation, if what the fake “Popov” says is true, then why is the ukie counteroffensive so obviously failing catastrophically. Why is it them changing their tactics all the time and not Russia? If Russia were truly suffering massive losses,the counteroffensive would not be going so badly for ukraine.
Posted by: Jimmy | Jul 14 2023 18:05 utc | 194
@FromFrance 157
since I have only started with Mr. Vogel´s argumentation and will take some time to get through 3 hours – how do you assess the anti-Baud couple? Do they have any serious grounds?
In case you have already watched the piece.
Posted by: AG | Jul 14 2023 18:09 utc | 195
@Jimmy #182:
We have NO names of any pilots killed.
We do, for the crew of the Ka-52: Lt. Col. Aleksey Vorozhtsov and Lt. Denis Oleynikov. Their names were confirmed by the Pskov Oblast Governor. Read my comments #444 and #445 in Ukraine Open Thread 2023-155. We even know their patronymics—the plaque installed near the crash site in Talovskiy district of Voronezh Oblast reads:
The place of death of the crew of the Ka-52 helicopter
of 15th Army Aviation Brigade, consisting of 3rd Squadron Commander, Lieutenant Colonel Aleksey Mikhaylovich Vorozhtsov and Navigator, Lieutenant Denis Vyacheslavovich Oleynikov, that was carrying out a combat mission on June 24, 2023.
Eternal memory to the defenders of the Motherland!
#182:
You want to believe that a single Pantsir S-1 complex on the move took down 6 Russian aircraft?!!
It’s not a matter of belief—there is evidence that two aircraft have been downed: a Ka-52 helicopter and an Il-22PP plane. Read the aforementioned comments. Regarding the other aircraft, I have nothing to say. (Although Pantsir-S1 is certainly capable of downing 6 aircraft: it has 12 missiles and two dual 30 mm guns.)
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 18:28 utc | 196
A noteworthy open letter published in The Postil Magazine:
“A Letter to Professor Dugin from Poland” (https://t.ly/CxISv 11.2022)
Of interest are the following remarks on Polish prejudice toward Russia:
Professor Dugin — if we are to avoid war between Poland and Russia, we need really cool thinking leaders which is now not the case on the Polish side. I would just like to turn your attention to the fact that a lot of current hate towards Russia in Poland was born after what we call “10/04/10” — the Polish presidential jet air disaster in Smolensk. Russian secret services have been blamed for 12 years now in Poland for pre-arranging this disaster, and about 30 – 40 percent of the Polish population firmly believes this assassination version, no matter how counterfactual it actually is. There is even a new official report which claims to have proved the so-called “explosions theory;” but actually it’s an exercise in fake science glossing over obvious questions. I know, because I have lost untold hours studying this disaster myself. The whole disaster and the following investigations are an unbelievable story, where both Polish and Russian sides have clearly contributed, but I’ll leave it for now.
More perception management from The Empire of Lies? Perhaps. This is not to blame the Polish people of course, but the usual suspects: the mainstream media and the governments of the collective West.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | Jul 14 2023 18:53 utc | 197
@Jimmy #197:
So what? There is nothing at all unusual about them being in on the con. Wasn’t Turchak the guy who went to some part of Kharkov region and proclaimed it would always be Russian? In actuality there was never any attempt properly to seize Kharkov the city,all operations in Kharkov were as a means to secure more routes into Lugansk at the time.
Didn’t one high profile military official last year state the next objective was the landbridge to Transdniestria? When you look at how they have approached Nikolaev,or the grain deal, this was clearly never the case. Those are 2 clear examples of Russian officials deliberately spreading misinformation.
Turchak has indeed visited the then–Russian-controlled eastern part of Kharkov Oblast (not the city of Kharkov) and announced that it would always be Russian. Because he thought it would be. Then the Russian defense failed and the Russian forces had to retreat eastward. It wasn’t a case of “deliberately spreading misinformation,” just a case of being wrong.
Regarding the other official, you will have to tell me who you’re talking about.
More importantly for this obvious piece of disinformation, if what the fake “Popov” says is true, then why is the ukie counteroffensive so obviously failing catastrophically. Why is it them changing their tactics all the time and not Russia? If Russia were truly suffering massive losses,the counteroffensive would not be going so badly for ukraine.
There is no contradiction between the Ukraine suffering massive losses during its “counteroffensive” and Russia also suffering significant losses—losses that Popov thinks can be substantially reduced if proper counter-battery tactics are implemented.
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 19:09 utc | 198
To follow up on my previous post, there’s this:
Polish and Russian official investigations concluded that the crash was an accident caused by human error and thick fog over Smolensk. The plane diverted from its correct approach path, hit a tree with its left wing and hurtled into scrubland, according to the reports.
Yet the Law and Justice (PiS) party – led by the late president’s twin brother, Jaroslaw Kaczynski – never accepted this explanation. Rather, they insisted that it had been an assassination, with causes of the crash ranging from an on-board explosion to faulty information from Russian air traffic controllers. However, no conclusive evidence to back up the alternative theories has yet materialised… (“Smolensk: A decade since the air disaster that shook Poland,” AJ, https://t.ly/AZToF 4.2020)
Despite this, “26 percent of Poles believe the crash was an assassination.” So much for media oversight.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | Jul 14 2023 19:19 utc | 199
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 17:24 utc | 194
Assuming everything about Popov is true, so what? Find me a military campaign/operation that goes smoothly, where the senior leaders are not critical or criticised, or where they have enough resources and assets, where the equipment performs as advertised and the soldiers fight to their full potential. Military campaigns are won by the side making the least mistakes, with personnel who perform adequately using equipment that works often well below advertised parameters. War is a constant series of second-best solutions to dire situations happening at the worst possible time. As one Vietnam veteran put it, 30 days of boredom and three minutes of terror a month, trouble is you never knew when those three minutes would occur, and the SMO is far more expansive in its scope and tempo.
The Russians might have made errors, and had shortfalls in the TO&E exposed, but that pales into near insignificance when you compare it to the legion of Ukrainian problems that have been brutally revealed by exposure to the SMO’s relentless interrogation. Posters who rush to defend the honour of the Russian Army, every time it is criticised, actually diminish its achievements. A largely territorial defence force, with limited offensive capabilities has undergone a wartime transformation into a force that can competently fight a full-spectrum conflict against a formidably armed and resourced opponent. Something the backers of Ukraine would struggle to replicate, if the tables were turned. Evolution for the military is a hard enough process in peacetime, but to successfully attempt that change during wartime is a major testament to the Russian Army’s competent leadership, pretending it has been blemish free does, I think, do a disservice to those achievements.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 14 2023 19:21 utc | 200