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July 9, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-164
Comments
UWDude@86…you are not familiar of how it works….back in the day, the Police were notified, the Army were called in. Big raid, feather in the security forces cap. Lots of guns ammo money and a few kilos of jelly.
Who did the cops catch, high level IRA and UVF members exchanging guns and money….trains still cho cho across the Ukraine, oil and gas still flow, the Big Fella still gets his 10%….not making money, sure.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 9 2023 20:51 utc | 101
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 9 2023 20:43 utc | 101
No proof. You also posted “likely” tens of millions were used. With nary a video. “Likely” is a weasel word, so it cant be said they were flat out lying.
Also, stop spamming this thread with the same thing over and over again, troll.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 9 2023 20:52 utc | 102
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 9 2023 20:51 utc | 102
Oh wow, black market does black market things, sometimes, in some “wars”, (Ireland was hardly a war). Therefore, geopolitical wars between nations, must also be just like a few circumstances that occur during wars.
Wars have all sorts of things going on in the chaos, including entities of one side working with entities of the other, be they black market, religious, political opposition etc.
That does not mean that the nations involved in the struggle are also secretly working together.
Posted by: UWDudeo | Jul 9 2023 20:59 utc | 103
Two good articles on the Cluster Bombs. Note the dud rate is based on impacts on a open, flat, compressed desert in the US West.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230708/scott-ritter-cluster-munitions-will-change-nothing-for-ukraine-1111754159.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230708/kievs-promise-not-to-use-cluster-bombs-against-civilians-is-meaningless-heres-why-1111757453.html
Posted by: daffyDuct | Jul 9 2023 21:16 utc | 104
#67
100% But still put in my protest vote for Cornell West.
Posted by: Little girl | Jul 9 2023 21:20 utc | 105
The famous philosopher Slavoj Zizek gets something pretty much spot on in otherwise quite muddle-headed essay:
“One finds a similar dynamic in the West’s support for Ukraine. We turn a blind eye to the fact that a domestic clique of oligarchs will likely emerge as the biggest winner of the Ukrainian struggle. Yet we should not be surprised if post-war Ukraine turns out similar to pre-war Ukraine, a place corrupted by oligarchy and colonized by big Western corporations that control the best land and natural resources. While we make our own sacrifices for the war effort, we fail to see that the gains will be appropriated by others, just like the drunkard who mistakes another man’s feet for his own – perhaps because, deep down, he does not want to acknowledge the truth.”
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/left-right-populist-alliance-against-ukraine-by-slavoj-zizek-2023-06
Posted by: Mummius | Jul 9 2023 21:21 utc | 106
Ah, the Brits and their strategic tank deployment – sending Challenger tanks to Ukraine, only to keep them as far away from the front line as possible. It’s like buying a fancy sports car and then locking it up in the garage for fear of a single scratch. Quite the enigma, isn’t it? Naturally, obliterating those tanks would be a splendid opportunity for the Russians to showcase their propaganda prowess.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 9 2023 21:27 utc | 107
if you have ever been to cambodia specifically Siem Reap. there is a worlds only landmine museum. Testament to the worlds contribution to killing civilians to this very day. No other nation has in history had the amount of mines dropped on it.
Posted by: hankster | Jul 9 2023 21:38 utc | 108
HERMIUS | Jul 9 2023 21:27 utc | 108
If those tanks don’t come out of hiding soon they’ll have to be marked down on the international arms market. Brand new Challengers, never used, half price.
Posted by: dh | Jul 9 2023 21:45 utc | 109
Possible development?
https://tass.com/politics/1412525
MOSCOW, February 27. /TASS/. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in a phone conversation on Sunday offered Russian President Vladimir Putin mediation on Ukraine, the Kremlin press service said.
“In his turn, Naftali Bennett offered Israel’s mediation services in order to stop military actions,” the statement said.
The Kremlin noted that Putin briefed Bennett on the special military operation to defend Donbass. “It was also stated that the Russian delegation is in the Belarusian city of Gomel and is ready for talks with Kiev’s representatives, who have shown an inconsistent approach so far and have not yet used this opportunity,” the statement reads.
The phone conversation was held at Israel’s initiative. The sides agreed to continue bilateral contacts at different levels.
Earlier on Sunday, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that the Russian delegation had arrived in Belarus for talks with Ukraine. The delegation consists of representatives of the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and other agencies, including the presidential administration. Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who leads the delegation in Gomel, said Moscow was expecting an answer until 15:00 Minsk Time (coincides with Moscow Time).
If this was posted earlier, please forgive.
Look after those Challenger tanks.
Treat them like gold dust.
The factory in Leeds (UK) where they were built has been closed for some years.
Posted by: Engineer-John | Jul 9 2023 21:59 utc | 111
The US did not accuse Russia of using cluster bombs (probably because Ukraine was already using them for years on Donbass civilians) until this week. See the widespread clip of Jen Psaki saying that there was no evidence that Russia was using them.
But that was yesterday’s line. Now that the US is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine the Pentagon “assesses” that Russia is using them. The previous knowledge is slid right down the Memory Hole.
And the war party shills, and NAFO trolls, dutifully repeat the new line.
“We have always been at war with Eurasia.”
Here’s another baldface lie told by the US squawking heads this week. “Ukraine has promised to map their use, so that we can demine after the conflict”. The US is going to demine Ukraine? Who would be stupid enough to believe such a claim?
The president of Cambodia missed his chance to point out that the US has not demined his country, 60 years after the dirty deeds were done.
Maybe the president of Laos should step up to the plate and point to the millions of unexploded mines that remain uncleared by the culpruit to this day.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 9 2023 22:01 utc | 112
Mercoris spends much time discussing article in Legitimy. Its nise to be opened minded and wise to check what the “other side” is talking about but on other hand it is clear that all mainstrem western reporting is total mind f*ck and Ukrainian reporting is more so. So introducing that as basis of analysis to an audience is highly suspect. Towit Legitamy states that Ukraine has about 200 days of large calibre ammo left and he goes on at length from there. My assumption would be that based on that reporting, it should be assume that Ukraine has something other than 200 days left – take the over/under.
Similarly when Biden says they are supply cluster f*ck ammo because thats all they have left, that is definitely not the reason. The old f’er seems nearly brain dead, but somehow deception seems something he remains adept at (well, that and he reads from script).
Clearly, the announcements of weapon delivery are intended to reassure the neocon base, but more to provoke Russia. But I think Mercouris did touch on something interesting – the the cluster weapons are more suitable as defensive than offensive weapon. So you have west and Ukros provoking Russia while stocking up defensive weapons.
Posted by: jared | Jul 9 2023 22:01 utc | 113
Ukraine fires cluster bombs into civilian areas: 10/20/2014, “Ukraine Used Cluster Bombs, Evidence Indicates,” NY Times, Andrew Roth, Donetsk, Ukraine…“The Ukrainian Army appears to have fired cluster munitions on several occasions into the heart of Donetsk, unleashing a weapon banned in much of the world into a rebel-held city with a peacetime population of more than one million, according to physical evidence and interviews with witnesses and victims.
Sites where rockets fell in the city on Oct. 2 and Oct. 5 [2014] showed clear signs that cluster munitions had been fired from the direction of army-held territory,
where misfired artillery rockets still containing cluster bomblets were
found by villagers in farm fields.
The two attacks wounded at least six people and killed a Swiss employee of the International Red Cross based in Donetsk….Human Rights Watch says in its report that cluster weapons have been used against population centers in eastern Ukraine at least 12 times, including the strikes on Donetsk, during the conflict, and possibly many more….A chemical plant on the outskirts of Donetsk was struck Monday, and the resulting shock wave shattered windows for miles around….The bomblets either explode on impact, flinging out lethal steel fragments, or land unexploded
and effectively become land mines. Children often mistake them for toys….
President Poroshenko of Ukraine had signed a cease-fire agreement with rebel representatives in Sept. 2014….
Posted by: susan mullen | Jul 9 2023 22:02 utc | 114
B has the Psaki quote highlighted in Week in Review.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 9 2023 22:04 utc | 115
Hankster 108
By the time we had gone to the Vietnam war museum and the tuolsleng prison I could take no more! It was already an uncomfortable journey for me even though I really loved it, I felt horrid about what my country did the whole time. Living in Asia I always was aware of what my government did and it horrified me then as it does today.
Posted by: Susan | Jul 9 2023 22:04 utc | 116
If this was posted earlier, please forgive.
Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 9 2023 21:55 utc | 111
Dateline from the top of the linked article: 27 Feb 2022, 14:05
😐
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 9 2023 22:09 utc | 117
Posted by: Celtia | Jul 9 2023 17:10 utc | 54
The Guardian is a sewer and Luke Harding one of it’s biggest turds. He is an absolutely shameless liar and apologist for neoimperialism, and you should absolutely not believe anything he says.
Posted by: Tim | Jul 9 2023 22:10 utc | 118
Posted by: Roger | Jul 9 2023 20:08 utc | 93
Good input, Roger. Everything you noted is proof that it’s a significant advance on the western FIRE worshipping capitalism and thus the superior social model…in existence.
Is it the best humans can do? That’s where I disagree. Particularly the idea that China is Marxist.
The go-go years saw the CCP essentially pimping its workforce for western capital. The CCP are clever (especially compared to the Russian stalinists) and have some sense of social responsibility to their working class, but they still operate on a stalinist model which is particularly not Marxist in terms of seeking an international social revolution.
The CCP is a sort of de-classed national bureaucracy “with Chinese characteristics”. I think those mysterious “characteristics” were shown in Martin Jacques’ excellent, presient book “When china rules the world” to be the heritage of an ancient imperial model of government that preceded the revolution. Another interesting one, although slavishly attempting to create hopium for the western ruling classes is “Escape from Rome” by Walter Scheidel.
The CCP elites are quite comfortable with capitalism and many are billionaires while the average Chinese workers are exploited. Granted in a more new deal sort of way, but they remain an exploited underclass, nonetheless. There is no socialism in China, rather a reformist version of Capitalism that was once popular in a healthier west after WW2.
China is currently the best possible social system in existence, but it’s not the last word. Although any resistance to the CCP by the Chinese worker would be immediately subject to imperialist manipulation at this point, I look forward to a genuine revolution led by orthodox Marxists of the Chen Duxiu type. Workers of the world could rally to that (and real Chinese revolutionaries would rally back) and turn this imperialist war into a class civil war.
You’re right about Xi too. After Bo Xilai was put down, I think there was a recognition on the part of the CCP that a more populist approach was needed which required really reigning in the corporate excesses, which he has done quite nicely.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 9 2023 22:10 utc | 119
Brendan 60
The Department of Defence funded the
Wuhan Lab to create the pandemic.
A trusted source of death and lies.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 9 2023 22:13 utc | 120
Scorpion | Jul 9 2023 21:55 utc | 111
If this was posted earlier, please forgive.
It was.
Last year.
Did you read what you posted?
It’s dated
28 FEB 2022, 01:05
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 9 2023 22:14 utc | 121
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 9 2023 20:25 utc
The mass of people still believe in principles. For the people who run the show however, no principles is a job requirement.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 9 2023 22:15 utc | 122
Dateline from the top of the linked article: 27 Feb 2022, 14:05
😐
==============================
Ha!
My bad…
Posted by: sillydog | Jul 9 2023 14:05 utc | 14
Why are depleted uranium munitions and cluster munitions illegal under international law?
—-
You over-rate “international law”.
There is no “international law” which is compulsory in any country. The worst thing a country gets by disobeying them is short term embarrasment — even if they are a signatoree of them. Eg, the silly international warrant for Putin’s arrest! Ha, and look at Israel’s disobedience!
International laws are constructed by the UN International Law Commission, ratified by the UN General Assembly, and enforced by The International Criminal Court — all of which can be, or not be, voluntarily “recognised” by any sovereign state. UN resolutions and laws only need to be voted by 50-66% of members. It’s a joke. The US just lobbies its friends and the timid nations and voilá, a new UN resolution is made … or not made.
Then there are things that people believe to be international laws but which are in fact only “conventions” which, likewise, can be, or not be, signed (ie, recognised) by any sovereign state. There are few international conventions the US ever signs … so that it can wheedle its way out if ever it needs to (like DU, cluster bombs and mines, etc). For any nation to sign any international law or convention, it must firstly pass their own national parliament. That’s why the US signs so few. Congress rejects anything which might take away the US Cowboy’s ability to run the world as it best sees fit. Simple. Lindsay Graham, for instance, hates the UN and will vote for nothing they do.
Then there is the “Rules Based Order”, a mythical thing which amounts to loosely-based non-binding “agreements” or even business-based habits — some literally verbal — which the US controls, uses, and unilaterally breaks through military and political and economic power.
Whilst International Law is indeed a great CONCEPT, the single most sabotaging force of it is US manipulation of the UN via its bullying hegemony. This is why there is presently a major movement by so many “other countries” to break US hegemony.
The Ukraine SMO is just a tiny tiny symptom of Russia’s kickback against it ALL. The big picture remains to be won as well. Hidden issues such as DU and cluster weapons are now showing up publically for global (re-)consideration, and the US is getting a mild face-pasting. This is one of the great side effects of the SMO, the way US (and UK) proxy ops and their moral hypocrisy are being exposed. Unfortunately, the term “International Law” has nothing to do with it.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 9 2023 22:16 utc | 124
I see there’s no discussion of Medvedev’s response to the attempt to presumably attack Smolensk’s nuclear facilities. Again, his reply on his Telegram:
“If an attempt to attack the Smolensk (Desnogorsk) nuclear power plant by NATO missiles
is confirmed, it is necessary to consider the scenario of a simultaneous Russian strike on the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant, the Rivne nuclear power plant and the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant, as well as on nuclear facilities in Eastern Europe.
“There is nothing to be ashamed of.”
I’d think that since the missiles are British that the retaliation ought to be directed there. Some will say the type of missile used isn’t always clear, but the Storm Shadow has unique characteristics that Simplicius has publicized–it’s speed being #1. And why would Russia think Ukraine would target nuclear facilities instead of general civilian targets as it usually does? Well, there’s plenty of evidence that Zelensky and team covet the destruction of a nuclear power plant for a variety of reasons that they’ve expressed on many occasions. I’ve asked, If they have such a great desire, why don’t they blow up one they have under their control? Medvedev names the three they have to choose from.
Similarly, I dont see it is likely that the west is coming to its senses (though that is what the media would have us believe, so again… Costanza Rule). So the NATO meeting will be used to trigger irresible provocation of Russia. Probably not membership (though thats pedantic b/s anyway – fodder for anal-ysts), but my get would be something like boots on soil, for humanitarian purposes only.
Posted by: jared | Jul 9 2023 22:17 utc | 126
On cluster munitions: Both sides use a specific type of 155mm shell that disperse mines, which are one type of cluster munition. So, IMO, the debate on this issue is moot.
@105,
i respect Scott ritter, but he should not use a 20% dud rate for old us military 155mm dpicm
first the bomblet is supposed to explode 20 to 30 feet above the surface, anti personnel disperses shrapnel the anti light vehicle a hard rod to disabled light vehicles as used by infantry.
second the bomblet fuses by a deployed ribbon that spins, so much goes wrong.
skeptical of any one claiming less than 50% duds!
Posted by: paddy | Jul 9 2023 22:25 utc | 128
Just stumbled across this Substack article today.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/part-1-of-my-minsk-agreements-series?
Part 1 of the author’s series on why the Minsk accords failed domestically/politically within Ukraine. I haven’t had a chance to do a deep dive, but in skimming it would appear that the author uses primarily “liberal” Ukrainian news outlets and conversations to analyze the failure of the accords. That said, why enter into an agreement TWICE if you’re not intending to abide by it?!
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 9 2023 22:27 utc | 129
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 9 2023 22:14 utc | 122
Did you read what you posted?
It’s dated
28 FEB 2022, 01:05
========================
Yes I did read it but obviously didn’t register the date as I read it. Have dyslexia when reading things on computer screens, the wrong words come out – also when I compose – but I read them as different ones, very strange. (After-effect of chronic Lyme for almost 20 years.) I probably read February 28 but internally translated it to June 28th. Apologies. (Will not go back to that website again – the article was in a column entitled ‘latest headlines!’)
UWDudeo@104…the Ukrainian rail lines are open for commerce. The largest oil refinery in the Ukraine still produces distillates for the war effort, oil and gas still transfer the Ukraine to the weapons supplying west, paying dividends to investors not including the customary 10% grift and graft….both parties are at war, the war is a fucking joke, judo with a healthy helping of Laugh In.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 9 2023 22:29 utc | 131
This war, like the Syrian War is a psyops. Cranking up the tension.
Move fast and break everything is the motto of the recidivist right-wing.
Count Dracula Biden saying he’s run out of legal weapons is like Sunak saying he’s run out of money. You can only fool some of the people, some of the time.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 9 2023 22:30 utc | 133
The various attacks and threats of attacks on Ukrainian and Russian nuclear power plants make it clear that they represent targets of opportunity (for crazies) in wartime.
In other words, nuclear power is definitely not “safe and clean” when nuclear power plants can become gigantic pre-positioned radiological dispersion devices if hit by missiles, bombs, and artillery.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 9 2023 22:30 utc | 134
Today in concern trolling….
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/06/30/destroying-eastern-ukraine-to-save-it/?
Gist? Evil Vlad didn’t have to invade!!!
Thoughts?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 9 2023 22:36 utc | 135
Lex | Jul 9 2023 14:59 utc | 22
*** The cluster munitions don’t make much sense for an advancing army***
US/NATO probably lie about running out of other shells.
Cluster bombs will be *intended* for use on Donetsk and other Russian towns/cities.
Deliberately killing or maiming lots of civilians.
Because that’s what the rulers of “the West” are like.
Posted by: Cynic | Jul 9 2023 22:39 utc | 136
When the Ravana of this affair brings herself onto the field of battle — because all proxies available to her have failed her intent — the end is near and peace will be restored very soon after because she has been put aside.
Russia fights NATO, not Ukraine.
NATO, not Ukraine, will sign the instrument of surrender and be dissolved.
Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 9 2023 22:40 utc | 137
OK, I did a slightly deeper skim of the article I posted at #136, and the author makes some decent points. Of course, he is compelled to include all the usual officially mandated verbiage such as “full scale” and maybe even “unprovoked” – and wants to lay all the blame on Putin. In particular I wondered what those denizens of the bar would say about this particular passage:
To the question of other options, there were many options, economic and diplomatic, available to Russia in February 2022. An energy embargo on Western Europe would have been an obvious possibility. Closing the borders and limiting trade with Ukraine was another choice. If you desire something more historical and theatrical, a naval blockade of Ukraine was imaginable.* Efforts to subvert American economic and monetary hegemony and create alternate trading mechanisms through partnerships with other nations were options. As discussed, we are seeing those efforts play out now.
Meanwhile, diplomatic measures would have sustained the world’s attention and built international support for Moscow. International support for multi-polarization efforts and de-dollarization and the growth of organizations like BRICS and SCO is in large part built upon the bullying, predation, and mendacity of the US and its Collective West partners. Continuing to demonstrate US and NATO misdeeds and bad faith, such as failing to uphold the Minsk II Accords, while not launching an illegal pre-emptive war with its inevitable brutality and war crimes, would have continued that work while laying claim to moral authority.
There are readers now scoffing at such diplomatic options; however, such opportunities were available before the invasion. I say this based not on my assumptions and observations but on what Putin’s advisors said. On February 21, 2022, in a televised meeting, several senior members of Putin’s government, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the former President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and the head of the foreign spy service Sergey Naryshkin advanced the idea of diplomatic efforts rather than war, particularly recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as sovereign entities (similar to the US and NATO recognition of Kosovo). Among other comments offered during the meeting, Lavrov stated talks were progressing with the West, and Medvedev predicted tensions with the West would subside. Based on that televised meeting days before the invasion, it appears that senior members of the Russian government accepted that there were options other than invasion and occupation.
The reality is Russia had a whole range of alternatives, from doing nothing to initiating a full-scale nuclear war. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion, David Swanson provided 30 such examples of what Russia could have done otherwise.
The pre-emptive invasion was not only their only option, it also wasn’t their best option.
I’m sure some here can do a point-by-point debunking of these supposed other options, but on the surface many of them do look feasible although what he neglects to point out is that “the west” – collectively and through Washington – want to see Putin and his party deposed ASAP but have been attempting to do so by playing the long game and would definitely have continued their subterfuge even if Russia hadn’t launched the SMO. I’m also sure the author leaves out critical bits of information that would undermine his points, but I don’t happen to have the ability to refute them off the top of my head other than what I just said.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 9 2023 22:44 utc | 138
Jörgen Hassler | Jul 9 2023 16:09 utc | 39
*** My guess is that the back of the liberal camel is stretched pretty thin. Will this be the straw that breaks it?
Not impossible.***
Once upon a time that could be true.
But, since even the most rabid excesses of wokism and “trans” have not been sufficient to trigger ‘liberal’ re-thinking (instead, they promote the aggressors while reinforcing and intensifying such destruction of society with new laws), very much doubt that a cluster-bombing of civilians would make them re-think either.
Unless they became targets too.
Posted by: Cynic | Jul 9 2023 22:54 utc | 139
I was reading “A Skeptic” ensemble report just now and saw that Avdiivka was mentioned again. Its hard to believe that this hard nut that’s only 15 klicks or less from Donetsk city still stands. I know, I know, the Ukies had 8 years to build the massive fortifications and its hard to advance against them without losing tons of guys. However, people living in underground bunkers have to breath and I would think by now that the Rus would know where most of the air intakes are located. I’ve looked at thousands of high res imagery and a person can find those unless they are extremely camouflaged or made into something else. And I don’t have the extremely high-res imagery that the RF have. I don’t see why such air intakes or exhaust ports in these fortified areas aren’t napalmed night and day. Make those rats have to truly try hard to keep breathing under their reinforced concrete and steel…
Posted by: DakotaRog | Jul 9 2023 22:56 utc | 140
I would love to see Russia start a large offensive operation just as the Nato meeting was starting up or even wrapping up. Aleks from black mountain analysis made a good case for a mid to late August Russian offensive. He thinks it will be to encircle Kiev to cut it off. This would be a master piece imho. Think of all the nato rats trapped there, along with other merceneries,nazi, regular troops, etc. It would be a pr coup for the Russian military and a massive blow to the west. It would hopefully be the domino that quickly starts the end of smo. The effect on Ukraine morale both military and the public would be enormous. Many would probably realize that the Ukraine govt has been lying all along. There wouldn’t be enough lipstick for that pig. The resources to do this are already in place. Per the Indian Punchline:https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-us-exchange-glances-as-prigozhin-heads-for-moscow/ “Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops with huge quantities of armour have taken position just across the border with Ukraine, ready for a massive offensive. A big concentration of Russian troops near the northern Kharkov region is ominous. In effect, there is nothing stopping Moscow from vanquishing the Ukrainian military and creating new facts on the ground. ” In the same article: “To be sure, Putin can hear the grating roar of public opinion in Russia demanding an all-out military push to end the war on Moscow’s terms. The attritional war has reached its logical end. This also happens to be a key demand by Prigozhin. ” I hope the offense does start but who knows? I can only wish.
Posted by: ctiger | Jul 9 2023 22:59 utc | 141
.the Ukrainian rail lines are open for commerce. The largest oil refinery in the Ukraine still produces distillates for the war effort, oil and gas still transfer the Ukraine to the weapons supplying west, paying dividends to investors not including the customary 10% grift and graft….both parties are at war, the war is a fucking joke, judo with a healthy helping of Laugh In.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 9 2023 22:29 utc | 132
Wars have different political objectives and considerations. Russia doesnt want to sanction itself by cutting off gas, and Ukraine wants the transit fees, as well as not angering its customers by cutting the pipelines, areas that are not accessible by sea like the nordstream where LNG can be shipped as replacement.
It is clear Russia is satisfied with NATO sending weapons to be blown up wholesale, within range of it best weapons, and it is clear if NATO stops supplying, the war ends with total Ukrainian defeat, so NATO is now trapped, and hoping for some kind of breakthrough.
Of course this has been explained many times, but I am sure you know “the real truth” and I am sure “The real truth” is based on simplistic premises and ideals, where everybody could just get along, except for some pernicious “they” who only care about money. A poor mans view of the world, obsessed with money so much he doesn’t realize it tinges his every thought, and then thinking the ultra rich are the same. No, the ultra rich come to.a point where money means nothing. The ultra powerful come to a point where they must protect their lands, and not be seen as the last leader of a political entity.
So, whatever, dude. Yeah, all fake. Earth is flat. No such thing as nuclear weapons. World is jut one big psy-op run by a few.
The rantings of mad men who can no longer handle reality, so they just invent head vampires that, if killed, all vampires would disappear. World just doesn’t work that way. There will always be vampires, and they will always serve other vampires who conflict with other head vampires, and simply eliminating all the head vampires, in no way means that all lesser vampires disappear. That’s just Hollywood dreck so the hero can slay the head vampire in the last five minutes, all the other vampires disappear, the guy kisses the girl, and everything suddenly wraps up.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 9 2023 23:02 utc | 142
Celtia | Jul 9 2023 17:10 utc | 54
*** Just read a very illuminating article by a journalist named Luke Harding who writes for the Guardian, about everyday Ukrainians building homemade missiles with a range of more than a hundred kilometers. These do-it-yourself missiles are capable of penetrating well into Russia.***
How odd that the citizens of Gaza don’t seem to be such capable amateurs.
But that said, anything scribbled by Harding is most unlikely to be true.
Posted by: Cynic | Jul 9 2023 23:16 utc | 143
I have started using the line with my liberal friends (in the USofA):
“At least Trump isn’t/won’t send cluster bombs to Ukraine that kill children for the next 50 years.”
It has traction where DU / bombing civilians / etc. doesn’t.
Short of a collapse of the UAF, I expect Trump to run and win on stopping this war (for people like me who hate him). It only takes a tiny change in the key states to flip the election. The antiwar crowd doesn’t have a public voice but it is still 5% of the population.
Posted by: je | Jul 9 2023 23:25 utc | 144
The Rybar site was one of the fiercest critics of Russia’s cessation of attacks on Ukraine’s energy distribution network but has recently conducted further BDA research and has somewhat changed its tune as this article shows “On the delayed consequences of strikes on the energy system of Ukraine”, which you’ll need to translate from the Russian. I’ll provide the two concluding paragraphs:
“But what is characteristic is that the appeal of Ukrenergo indirectly confirms that the main consumers of electricity are now household, and not industrial, as it was before.
“In the current situation, it remains only to express regret that the strikes on energy facilities were curtailed and not brought to their logical end. But even this damage had a very serious delayed effect on the entire economy of Ukraine, which will manifest itself for a long time in the form of a shortage of capacity in the energy system.” [Emphasis Original]
It would seem that Russia’s military BDA people had a better informed assessment of Ukraine’s energy situation and had accomplished the goal of greatly curtailing industrial activity while not too severely affecting civilians.
How many cluster munitions does it take to entertain the newbie MoA masses over the weekend fellow barflies?
All this pearl clutching BS and not even a MOD report of what is going on in the trenches….sigh
Reuters now is reporting something about Russia intercepting bombing over Crimea but I can’t even get a screen capture of text because Reuters quickly blows their page into an error, just for me, I assume….going on for a few days now but not always….just a lookup table of mac addresses for the web servers…..grin
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 9 2023 23:37 utc | 146
*** Just read a very illuminating article by a journalist named Luke Harding who writes for the Guardian, about everyday Ukrainians building homemade missiles with a range of more than a hundred kilometers. These do-it-yourself missiles are capable of penetrating well into Russia.***
Celtia | Jul 9 2023 17:10 utc | 54
Oh, please, homemade missiles made by ordinary Ukrainians? That’s about as likely as finding a unicorn riding a unicycle on the moon! In a valiant endeavour to paint a picture of the Ukrainians as the plucky underdogs locked in an epic battle against the nefarious Russia. Ah, behold the magnificent pirouette of Harding’s stance! A true master of the art of flip-flopping. Nine months ago, the Ukrainians were eagerly embarking on a journey towards Moscow and the beaches of Crimea. Oh, look at him flipping like a pancake! It seems his side is doing the war equivalent of a belly flop!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 9 2023 23:51 utc | 147
Re AFU Progress and Its Future:
Browsing some frontline reports; added to some reports that RF and Ukr teams are in Belarus for “talks”; added to those like Ritter and McGregor who say that the AFU is kapput and about to capitulate; added to the ineffective offensive towards Crimea; one might think the end is near for the SMO. But I am suspicious of some Kievan ploy. I suspect Kiev/NATO still has something up its sleeve.
By some estimates, there are still some 200-300k AFU somewhere out there; plus conscription continues apace; plus many more promised weapons to come. That’s still a lot of warring potential left in them. For RF to call it off at this point, they’d need a watertight armistice of unconditional surrender. So I’d say the talks are just a sham until and whilst AFU regroups, sets up more sabotage ops, and invents a new NATO strategy to “hurt Russia” in some annoying ways.
Any SMO ceasefire would be a joke unless and until RF cleansed every weapon, every foreign fighter, and every present and future NATO influence beyond the Polish border. Unless, unless, Putin decides that, through some peace deal, Ukraine will behave itself under threat of a future blitz annihilation — thus a frozen conflict in perpetuity.
I dunno. Maybe Putin WILL compromise so long as Russia’s point has been made and the enemy has been humiliated into fucking off. Seeing his constant de-escalation tendencies, [including the recently revealed Azovstal deal to save AFU lives], it wouldn’t surprise me, despite my own desires to see the western fuckers receive a complete military defeat.
I guess the Vilnius NATO Summit will make things clearer. But then maybe not!!!
Meanwhile, the hunt and grind continues until 000 troops survive.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 9 2023 23:55 utc | 148
#143
No, the ultra rich come to.a point where money means nothing.
For some earning money is a competitive sport, a sign of winning.
That is usually where the money came from in the first place. They don’t
quit wanting to win.
Beyond that, with great wealth comes power. The more the money the
more events can be manipulated.
In some families the “money means nothing” stage sets in in the second or
third generation.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jul 9 2023 23:56 utc | 149
Trudeau, just like Biden, hasn’t got an original thought in his head. Cluster bombs, killing and maiming children, would require him to think, think hard about the amorality. But thinking hard is… well…hard and Trudeau always is looking for approval from other “leaders”.
Canada has dispensed with Honest Broker/Peacekeeper. Water boy, yapping from the sidelines. Staying silent in case the Western War Mongers question him.
Lester Pearson and Jean Chretien, Trudeau, junior, is not.
Posted by: kupkee | Jul 10 2023 0:03 utc | 150
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/09/its-simple-and-cheap-the-volunteers-making-ukraine-trembita-bomb
Posted by: Celtia | Jul 9 2023 17:10 utc | 54
Yes, and didnt we read about the brave plucky Ukrainian who shot down a Russian jet with a rifle? Seems equally likely as a Guardian puff piece about home made missiles.
Posted by: madmarc | Jul 10 2023 0:06 utc | 151
Dolphin
some reports that RF and Ukr teams are in Belarus for “talks”;
Reports….from Feb 2022
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 10 2023 0:07 utc | 152
The Vilnius NATO summit is now a complete sham! The greatest threat to it’s unity is the outward appearance of disunity.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 10 2023 0:08 utc | 153
Dolphin
Thank you for your discourse on international law. I appreciate your optimism. It would be fantastic if we could have a true system of internationally agreed upon actions that are acceptable without exclusions for the “exceptional” countries. Im afraid I am rather pessimistic. It would be great if we had a world that is ok.
Posted by: sillydog | Jul 10 2023 0:09 utc | 154
madmarc | Jul 10 2023 0:06 utc | 152
I have to correct you there,… the jet wasn’t shot down with a rifle.
Babuska took out the fighter jet with a can of tomatoes, lobbed from her balcony.
Olana Zelenskya told this herself to Hillary Clinton when in Washington.
(Although by then the original report of Babuska’s tomatoes versus a fighter jet had morphed into a drone)
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 10 2023 0:12 utc | 155
They are not just challenger tanks, they are M&S Challenger tanks, with a double chocolate outer coating and a soft cherry center. That’s why they must be kept away from the front line.
Posted by: Oh | Jul 10 2023 0:15 utc | 156
International laws are constructed by the UN International Law Commission, ratified by the UN General Assembly, and enforced by The International Criminal Court — all of which can be, or not be, voluntarily “recognised” by any sovereign state. UN resolutions and laws only need to be voted by 50-66% of members. It’s a joke. The US just lobbies its friends and the timid nations and voilá, a new UN resolution is made … or not made.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 9 2023 22:16 utc | 125
This is not the case. Your definition of international law, public as opposed to private I assume, is almost as bad as your definition of nation-state a few months ago. Customary international law stems from state practice and treaties. It predates the UN by several centuries. The ILC does not “make” international law, despite what Wikipedia says, only states do that when they ratify treaties and/or conventions.
States do follow certain conventions and treaties when it is convenient for them, when enough states follow them it becomes customary, and then eventually embedded as “law.” A case in point is piracy. Piracy on the high seas is considered universally bad by nearly all states. There are treaties against piracy codified in the Law of the Sea. No state endorses or sponsors piracy, at least officially, and pirates are hunted down by multinational coalitions, like around the Horn of Africa.
Cluster munitions are only illegal in those countries that have signed the convention on banning them, but that does not include China, Russia, or the United States, among many other countries. So they are only considered “illegal” by selected countries, so the US, Russia, et al are not in violation of international law since they have not acceded to any convention or treaty banning their use.
The ICC only enforces laws against individuals, and is extremely weak. I think only three or four substate rebels from Africa have actually been convicted since its inception. The ICJ deals with state on state suits, but has little enforcement power. The bottom line is states determine what is and is not international law, not the ILC or the UN.
Posted by: James M. | Jul 10 2023 0:27 utc | 157
Some videos for today.
Russian airborne forces capture enemy troops hiding in blown up house:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/IMG_0460:64
Russian forces beat off another enemy attack near the DPR’s Gorlovka:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/G3Vg-AjjXqHt38CI:a
Russian forces inspect captured enemy trench (18+):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/orekhovo-trenches:2
Russian sniper at work (very 18+):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/russniper-headshot:a
Posted by: Nate | Jul 10 2023 0:27 utc | 158
@Catilina 18
Vietnamese farmers were encouraged to fire into the air with their old rifles when Amerikastani strike aircraft flew low overhead on night bombing raids. They actually downed some planes that way, shooting at the sound.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 10 2023 0:45 utc | 159
Many thanks to b and all of the barflies who do regularly post informatively and thoughtfully here…I always look forward to reading the insightful analyses of MoA!
I’ve been wondering if the constant escalations by the West play some useful role to Russia’s administration of the war. If the Russian public was ever to “weary” of the war (as we might do here in the US), then an ever increasing threat from the West could help, skillfully propagandized, to re-focus their attention. And so the steady stream of Western provocations….the ever-increasing sanctions package, Nord Stream, the Kerch bridge attack, the constant attacks on Donbass and then on other areas, the delivery of more and more “game changing” weapons, etc, especially the terror attacks within Russia, might be useful to a Russia in this sense…especially since, for many Russians (like for Americans) and particularly to the younger generation, the war may at times seem distant.
This certainly seems to be modus operandi of the Western MSM, used to build public support for our escalations (except that our reporting of Russian “atrocities” has to be manufactureed); but perhaps I am only projecting onto the Russians the same base attributes of our system…
Posted by: Peter b | Jul 10 2023 0:47 utc | 160
UWDude@143…reading to much into it, vampires, Hollywood, kisses at sunset….the SMO not a war, more of a minor border skirmish, has stated goals, Putin Lavrov, Medvedev have reiterated them many times, not a mystery nor a love story, but rather, a comedy where both sides still do commerce with each other, while they exchange the bodies of their dead…..btw, the dead don’t lie…..
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 10 2023 1:05 utc | 161
Posted by: Cynic | Jul 9 2023 22:39 utc | 137
“Cluster bombs will be *intended* for use on Donetsk and other Russian towns/cities.”
True. What the West ‘intends’ can only reliably be inferred from what it actually does. What it ‘says’ is random misdirection to convince others or themselves. The best that can be said for it is, as I think JL Borges said in a story, that even a map designed to mislead the enemy contains valid information.
Luke Harding, however, is in a category of his own. How a man of such impeccable journalistic integrity can bear to squander his talents on a gutter rag like the Guardian is beyond me.
Posted by: TPaine | Jul 10 2023 1:38 utc | 162
Btw, my previous post (which you stunningly remember so well and which clearly got right up your nose)…
Why wouldn’t you want readers to remember your posts well? I pride myself in at least trying to pay attention to the “folks” and what they write.
Posted by: Ralph Reed | Jul 10 2023 1:38 utc | 163
I see that Tuesday is the 80th anniversary of the Kisielin massacre. The Poles are into anniversaries. I wonder how they will be commemorating it in Warsaw? Sombre dignitaries, candles and flowers? Perhaps a siren at the time when it happened?
Posted by: Technophobe | Jul 10 2023 1:44 utc | 164
Hey there, my fellow barflies! Prepare yourselves for a miraculous event for I shall bestow upon you the divine elixir of life itself – BEER! Consider this a humble offering to you all!
ORDER AT THE BAR
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 10 2023 1:46 utc | 165
@Paul from Norway | Jul 9 2023 19:12 utc | 75
As the Norwegian Prime-minister the current Nato boss Jens Stoltenberg negotiated the ban on cluster munition that was signed by him in the Norwegian capital Oslo.
His Foregn minister was Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s current Primeminister who will not critzice the deployment.
I am deeply ashamed over being Norwegian
Agreed 100% When did Stoltenberg sign the ban on cluster munitions? Any links?
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 10 2023 1:50 utc | 166
Peter b | Jul 10 2023 0:47 utc | 161–
As I wrote yesterday and many times before that, it is imperative for those in the West to understand that for Russians this conflict is existential–they correctly see what’s happening as replays of previous existential threats made by the West: Napoleon and Hitler, and then Clinton and the Neoliberal Rape, and before them the Vatican at the infancy of Russianness. Here are the links to the major comments I made yesterday, 128, 153, 214, 219, and I should include S.P.Korolev’s comment here.
Those should be enough to get you “seasoned.” We only have a few Russian contributors, S being #1. And the #1 problem for those of us in the West is we aren’t Russian and completely lack that perspective. We can study as much as we want, and I most certainly have; but that’s no substitute for being Russian, for you aren’t raised/socialized into Russian culture and its values, especially Russian history. But take heart, you aren’t alone.
The long running argument on these forums about the West’s military production capacity has been settled by the cluster munition issue.
It is clear, in practice and by official admission that the West cannot keep up with Russian artillery production (let alone all else).
So it resorts to using decaying stocks of grotesquely inaccurate and frankly outmoded weapons despite it’s constant and loud claims to have the world’s most sophisticated arsenal.
On the contrary, this has exposed the arsenals of the west to be basically anemic: All that precision, all that intelligence, ‘the best tanks in the world’, all those satellites peering down from the sky …
Was all of that so useless that the only remaining option was cluster bombs?
All the while Russian weapons production and effectiveness chugs on without skipping a beat …
I certainly I never hear another troll going on about superior western weapons production again!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:09 utc | 168
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:09 utc | 170
*I certainly hope I never hear another troll going on about superior western weapons production again!*
(oh, for a grammar checker!)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:12 utc | 169
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:09 utc | 170
You believe that the West has run-out of ammunition?
Posted by: Arch Wanker | Jul 10 2023 2:15 utc | 170
@hankster | Jul 9 2023 21:38 utc | 109
if you have ever been to cambodia specifically Siem Reap. there is a worlds only landmine museum. Testament to the worlds contribution to killing civilians to this very day. No other nation has in history had the amount of mines dropped on it.
I have been to Siem Reap, but not that museum. I should have spent some more time there. Like many others, I went to see Angkor Wat, which is an incredible experience. It was a center to the Khmer Rouge in the 1970s.
The whole area is incredibly large, like a modern city with multiple huge moats. The Angkor Wat moat is rectangular 1 km by 1.2 km and 200m wide, and it isn’t even the biggest one. That place is stuffed with history from very recent times to a 1000 years ago and in my opinion it is built on a megalithic pre-historic base. The amount of processed stones is more than in the Giza pyramids of Egypt. As I saw with my own eyes there are extremely rare stone details (“keystone cuts”) that are identical to what you can find in Peru and Bolivia, diametrically opposite Cambodia.
Siem Reap is recommended. It is an easy 1 hour flight from Bangkok.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 10 2023 2:20 utc | 171
Posted by: Arch Wanker | Jul 10 2023 2:15 utc | 172
You believe that the West has run-out of ammunition?
(First trigger victim.)
I don’t believe, Wanker, I know. If it walks like a duck …
(the data points are innumerable and conclusive)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:20 utc | 172
Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:12 utc | 171–
Just need to proof-read better, as do I.
You make a great point which leads to the conclusion that the 2% of GDP demanded by the Outlaw US Empire of its European NATO “allies” was essentially tribute as nothing of defensive value was purchased by those sums over the last 34+ years since the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold war supposedly ended. Russia has exposed NATO for the Paper Tiger it has become since it wrecked Serbia. The Big Question IMO given that revelation: What will Russia do with that knowledge? I have an inkling, but it’s too longwinded for a comment now and more needs to occur within Ukraine first.
14 Home made flak:
When you throw stuff into the air it may hit something. Soviet infantry used similar tactics against Germans, and at least one bomber pilot regarded it as scary and perilous.
Posted by: Catilina | Jul 9 2023 14:21 utc | 18
—————————————————-
@Catilina 18
Vietnamese farmers were encouraged to fire into the air with their old rifles when Amerikastani strike aircraft flew low overhead on night bombing raids. They actually downed some planes that way, shooting at the sound.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 10 2023 0:45 utc | 160
——————————————————————
The most recent example for the US in its various Middle-East escapades was for the Arabs to fire AK-47s in the air to create a steel curtain for Western pilots to fly through at certain altitudes.
Not the same as claiming that the US was firing at Arab weddings because firing AK-47s as a celebration invokes Isaac Newton’s return of spent ordnance by the forces of gravity.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 10 2023 2:26 utc | 174
>>14 Home made flak:
In the Vietnam war the other side took down a jet airplane with a steel cable. They stretched it across a valley where they had noted the common and repeated flight path of the incoming airplane’s. Got a cable across and hit one of them.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jul 10 2023 2:30 utc | 175
This certainly seems to be modus operandi of the Western MSM, used to build public support for our escalations. Posted by: Peter b | Jul 10 2023 0:47 utc | 161
——————————————————–
MSM and the history of Vietnam War reporting provide a comparison with the current miserable state of affairs.
US MSM was supportive of the US government meme until the Pentagon Papers in NYT started turning the tide. The Tet Offense was a military failure but was designed as a US MSM propaganda stunt which came off as expected, i.e. turning the tide.
US MSM were US Govt paid for propaganda during the COVID pandemic, worth noting. Prior, they had turned woke well before the 2016 election and to this day mainline US government doctrine. There are small hints of the tide turning. The Ukies are helping, indirectly, now blaming Milley (not Blinken, Icky Vicky, Biden, nor Sullivan) for blowing the counter offensive.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 10 2023 2:43 utc | 176
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 10 2023 2:26 utc | 176
What will Russia do with that knowledge? I have an inkling, but it’s too longwinded for a comment now and more needs to occur within Ukraine first.
Thanks for your response.
I believe that knowledge was already incorporated in the strategy of the SMO:
a) Utilize all the old USSR stocks, “low-cost”, “low-grade” weapons at a steady rate in order to draw out the western weapons arsenals (I mean, expose their capabilities and capacity)
b) Eventually provoke the West into redirecting their efforts to ramping up military production, at which point the West will have to make significant changes to their economic policies which will impact their overall approach to the global economy.
All the while, while reorienting to destroy Russia, the Chinese, Indians and Global South in general will reclaim market share in areas once dominated by the US and it’s EU/UK vassals.
Even if the US (only the US) is able to adjust it’s economy towards more military production over the next 2 years (say) they would have disrupted their own economic objectives simply to “annoy” Russia. This will have consequences and hasten the destabilization of the American economy.
I say “annoy” because even with a massive increase in weapons to the AFU it’s dubious the AFU has the manpower and logistics to leverage this ‘massive increase in production’.
In effect, should the West go full balls-to-the-wall in ramping up military production they will fall into the same trap the USSR fell into when it was provoked by the Americans into depleting it’s civilian production in order to support it’s military defense.
As in any system, alleviating a performance (or production) bottleneck in one area merely results in it moving somewhere else …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 2:48 utc | 177
And btw, an incredibly dissenting view, I’ve always thought the phrase “NATO in Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia” was nonsense. The Dolphin | Jul 10 2023 3:10 utc | 181
—————————————————-
Them is fighting words, and possibly ignorant of the carefully, detailed, complex wording of nuclear warfare.
Finland and Poland would like US nukes positioned in their territories, e.g. just like the Netherlands, which to the best of my knowledge, only hosts B-61 iron, i.e. gravity bombs. There is a most complex logic to the conduct of nuclear warfare. I gave up on it in 1972, chasing ABM treaties. Be my guest.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 10 2023 3:22 utc | 178
Whilst on the subject of— I hesitate to sully my keyboard with the name and shall have to wipe it down with dirty water afterwards… whilst on the subject of the “journalist” Luke Harding,
anyone who wants to start the week with a belly laugh
ought to go back and re-watch Aaron Mate’s masterly interview of the said “journalist”, one of the funniest 15 minutes I’d
seen at that time and bringing to mind no one more instantly than the Beano’s Jonah, the sailor who sank every ship he sailed on.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LQNpntIAAWA/VBHQ4P9jWuI/AAAAAAAARcs/s22Tx8qi4YU/s1600/Jonah2014.jpg
Posted by: petra | Jul 10 2023 3:29 utc | 179
Melaleuka
Thanks for chasing the red herring. It was so bleeding obvious this time.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 10 2023 3:51 utc | 180
Unless my memory is utterly faulty, Simplicius76 is doing a major bit of deliberate misinformation here:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/azov-commanders-return-6th-column
Prokopenko and the Azov nazis weren’t sent tu Ottomanistan at the time of the Azovstal surrender and as a condition of the Azovstal surrender as he claims: the were sent to Ottomanistan several months later as a trade for Putin’s chum (and dad of Putin’s goddaughter) Medvedchuk. I clearly recall photos of Volyn in a Russian prison colony, on cleaning duties, aroundJuly last year.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 10 2023 3:55 utc | 181
My take on the cluster munitions:
The Obama Admin stopped ALL testing of the many variants early in his first term. Due to international treaties was the claim.
No test range was allowed to authorize their use, and no one in charge of munitions storage was allowed to ship them anywhere.
Even the training rounds (flash-bang, not real explosives with shrapnel) were restricted for a time, then handed out in very small supplies.
The upshot of all this?
No one knows how reliable the stockpile really is.
Stockpile reliability requires using a small percentage each year from various production lots to validate that aging munitions still work. And that is done with items stored in munitions bunkers, not ones that have been lugged around in the real world.
Missing 8 years or more of testing means the required functionality can’t be guaranteed. Not just of the submunition, but of the fuze and the main charge itself.
In essence, the Ukraine will be using a very questionable stock of risky munitions. The worst case scenario for a fuze failure is an immediate function, meaning while inside the launch tube. A very traumatic experience for the user. The other non-function case means the projectile simply splatters against the ground without the air burst. More likely would be an incorrect altitude, too high or too low. Too high means a very large spread, too low means a small spread, and very low would cause most submunitions to not have enough airflow to active their rip cord and hence fuze set.
With the past supplying of outdated Stingers and Javelins, my guess is that “passing the trash” for avoiding more de-milling problems is as much a reason for the supply as them really making an difference in the Ukraine.
On a side note, the headlines this week are that the last of the US chemical weapons stockpiles destruction is nearing the end. I don’t think any have been made since the 50’s.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 10 2023 3:58 utc | 182
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 10 2023 3:58 utc | 186
No one knows how reliable the stockpile really is.
Stockpile reliability requires using a small percentage each year from various production lots to validate that aging munitions still work. And that is done with items stored in munitions bunkers, not ones that have been lugged around in the real world.
I have seen pictures in western media showing piles of (ostensible)cluster weapons lying helter-skelter on the ground. Alongside these pictures, reminiscent of automobile scrap-yards, are captions crowing about the “immense”, “limitless” quantities of these weapons in the US stockpile, the implication being that the US is unlikely to ever run out of stocks in the near future, implying further that they’re willing to flood Ukraine/Russia with as much of this ordnance as possible.
Regardless, what these pictures really show are immense piles of rusting, dented, filth covered canisters exposed to the rain and elements for years.
That is not a “stockpile”.
A “stockpile” is what you’d find in the organised stores the USSR left in Transdniestria for example.
The US is likely to go bankrupt refurbishing these weapons, if they’re really serious about using all of them at all …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 10 2023 4:08 utc | 183
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 10 2023 3:58 utc | 186
Interesting info, thanks.
So maybe part of the rationale that developed in favor of shipping these munitions was something like the following conversation.
Bureaucrat: “Say General, please compose a list of what can be spared from our ordinance that won’t deeply impact our readiness.”
(A week later) General: “Here’s the list.”
Bureaucrat: “Say, can you really spare all those shells listed on page 12, Section C? You won’t later say we’re stripping our military of essential inventory?”
General: “Ha, ha! Oh, you’re serious, no, we’ve been quietly looking to see what State would let us detonate that crap within it, without our having to sweeten the deal for its Representatives with something that would come out of our budget.”
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 10 2023 4:12 utc | 184
I am deeply ashamed over being Norwegian Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jul 9 2023 19:12 utc | 75
Agreed 100% When did Stoltenberg sign the ban on cluster munitions? Any links? Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 10 2023 1:50 utc | 168
The Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions in Oslo on 3 December 2008.
Norway was one of four countries that both signed and ratified the convention that same day.PM signed
Maybe a point of grammar or expression but I am Not ashamed over being Norwegian. We have a history to be proud of when it comes to resisting Nazis and promoting peaceful negotiations around the world. Our leaders have betrayed that tradition in recent years and those leaders and the Norwegians who have supported them are the ones who need to be ashamed.
Posted by: waynorinorway | Jul 10 2023 4:41 utc | 185
@ Posted by: Rattus | Jul 9 2023 15:43 utc | 35
This should keep you busy for a while:
Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteres are at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a tatol mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by it slef but the wrod as a wlohe.
Posted by: jogesh99 | Jul 10 2023 4:41 utc | 186
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 10 2023 4:25 utc | 189
if he shows up on your back porch with the gun, and claims the porch is his, and if you object then you’re just being aggressive, then you have a problem. the actual doctrines have morphed considerably over the years, but MAD itself stopped being the sole doctrine a long time ago, i think during JFK administration. it’s a lot more about counterforce and first strikes now i think.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 10 2023 5:00 utc | 187
Russia, US exchange glances as Prigozhin heads for Moscow
I don’t agree with everything Bhadrakumar writes, but his perspective is always interesting, at least to me.
Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Jul 9 2023 20:23 utc | 95
The final destination was St Petersburg, I believe. I rather thought the visit had to do with the raid on his Petersburg apartment, where I’m sure there were nasties that could give Prigozhin a lot of trouble, if revealed.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 10 2023 5:17 utc | 188
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 9 2023 19:21 utc | 78
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 9 2023 20:52 utc | 103
I didn’t say ‘likely’. Jake Sullivan did. I thought that was clear from the block quote, and also that I’m very skeptical, to say the least (I said there’s no verified evidence). Anyone who reads MofA should know how ‘likely’ these claims are to be true.
Also, stop spamming this thread with the same thing over and over again, troll.
Two comments from me plus a small correction for each, since there’s unfortunately no edit function. You’ve posted a lot more messages here including two attacking me. People can decide for themselves about who’s spamming and trolling.
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 10 2023 5:25 utc | 189
Two comments from me plus a small correction for each,
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 10 2023 5:25 utc | 196
Yeah, not counting the two you spammed at the beginning of the thread that were removed. Saying the same thing about Russia using 10M cluster bombs in Ukraine already, followed by a Jake Sullivan quote a couple posts layer.
I remember, I read them before they were removed. And you can also check post 74 in this thread, because somebody replied to a post that no longer exists.
But it was the same exact two posts you then reposted about a hour later. Ie spamming the same crap. A claim Russia used 10M cluster munitions in Ukraine so far, without a shred of evidence, is just straight out lying, and parroting it, as if some stupid twitter lie deserves any attention at all here,
The posts are gone now, but I remember them, and they were removed for the same reason a post about Putin feasting on baby toe and thumb soup every night would be removed.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 5:45 utc | 190
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 9 2023 22:36 utc | 136
>https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/06/30/destroying-eastern-ukraine-to-save-it/?
>Gist? Evil Vlad didn’t have to invade!!! Thoughts?
My prediction in early Fwb 2022, made in various forums where I was subsequently expelled in grounds of being a Russian troll who was paid by the Kremlin and eager to suck Putin’s asshole, was that Russia would NOT invade, precisely because invasion was a bad choice. By threatening to invade, without actually doing so, Russia was disrupting the Ukrainian economy, especially foreign investment. Next step would be to cut off gas to Ukraine. Then give the Donbas rebels more and better weapons, evacuate Crimea and Donbas of civilians, and thus provoke Ukraine to attack Crimea and Donbas. Then impose sanctions on the West unless the west did something about Ukraine’s attack. Etc.
War is monstrously expensive. Above actions would be much cheaper and free up resources to cause massive trouble for the USA elsewhere. Crimea and Donbas are just small pieces of land by comparison with Russia. Disadvantages of allowing Ukraine to take the war into Crimea and Donbas are greatly outweighed by advantage of making Ukraine the attacker. War was inevitable, regardless of who attacked first, but politically it is better to be the “innocent” victim of attack versus “guilty” attacker.
Mearsheimer and others were also surprised by Russia’s attack, precisely because it’s such a bad option. I’m not sure who to blame. Possibly Putin made the mistake, possibly he was forced into the mistake by hard liners in the deep state.
One thing I disagree with, in that article, is that the war is weakening Russia for generations. Many cultures tends towards stagnation during long periods of peace and prosperity, and it takes a war or other catastrophe to get things moving. True for many countries but especially true for Russia. So I predict the Russian military machine will be rejuvenated by the war.
Posted by: Revelo | Jul 10 2023 6:00 utc | 191
Yeah, not counting the two you spammed at the beginning of the thread that were removed.
(…)
I remember, I read them before they were removed..
(…)
The posts are gone now, but I remember them, and they were removed for the same reason a post about Putin feasting on baby toe and thumb soup every night would be removed.
That’s a lie. It just shows how desperate you are.
The message number for my post given in #74 is wrong apparently because someone else’s message before mine must have been removed, thus messing up those that follow. You would know that if you had read some comments by b about the effects of removing messages.
And the comment Posted by: badjoke | Jul 9 2023 19:03 utc | 74 about projection obviously refers to my comment that is now #59. An article here three days ago mentioned reported failure rates of 10% to 30% for American cluster bombs, and now Jake Sullivan accuses Russia of having a failure rate of more than 30%.
You’ve managed to make the same false allegation against me three times in the one message, and you accuse me of spamming?
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 10 2023 6:15 utc | 192
@Brendan
Post 74 is quoting “Brendan”, post 55, I remember the post, it said Russia had already used 10M cluster bombs. It was removed.
You later reposted the same crap, and. Then reposted Jake Sullivan, quote, again.
Posts dont gain numbers when they are removed. There is no way 74 replied to post 55 that some how turned to post 59. That would only happen if posts were somehow added into the stack.
Are you denying you posted that crap about Russia using 10M cluster munitions to tbis thread… twice? Are you denying you posted Jake Sullivans quote claiming Russia already used Cluster munitions, twice?
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 6:28 utc | 193
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 6:28 utc | 201
Whatever the reason, whether it was a typo or some other messages got added after moderation or some other reason, it’s a lie to say that I posted any earlier message that got removed. Perhaps you can explain why earlier messages of mine could have got removed but the same ones allegedly reposted later were not?
It’s also a lie to attribute Jake Sullivan’s opinion to me.
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 10 2023 6:51 utc | 195
@Brendan
Sorry. Read you all wrong. :/.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 6:42 utc | 202
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 6:53 utc | 196
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 6:53 utc | 205
If that’s you and not one of the fake posters, then no problem, apology accepted.
Posted by: Brendan | Jul 10 2023 7:11 utc | 197
This is what I read yesterday, and got triggered, from 59:
“What Jake Sullivan said after that is also weird. If what he said is true, there are are now several million unexploded Russian bomblets lying around in civilian areas in Ukraine.”
Bevause I jaye when people post unbelievable stuff, then say “big if true!”
However I missed the next sentence you wrote:
“It’s remarkable that there’s no verified evidence of that.”
Which completely changed the character of your post.
So yeah, oops, triggered.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 10 2023 7:23 utc | 198
Posted by: Celtia | Jul 9 2023 17:10 utc | 54
Whoever is quoting Luke Harding and the Guardian should be banned on this side.
Posted by: RB | Jul 10 2023 7:29 utc | 199