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July 4, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-159
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@all
I cleaned up the last open thread as some commentators rushed off-topic, were unable to tolerate other views or were generally assholes.
As a consequence some 10 people got banned from this site.
I will do the same with this thread.
Any misbehaving commentator, and its me who defines what misbehavior is, will be immediately banned from this site.
PS: There is zero need to respond to this comment. The theme of the thread is the war in Ukraine and directly related issues. Stick to it.
Pretty much every blogger I follow repeats the lament that the Ukraine and Russia were about to conclude a peace deal in Istanbul in April, 2022, only to have it scuppered by Boris Johnson.
What I wonder is why this seems to be universally accepted. I see no reason to believe that if BoJo had not involved himself, and the Ukraine and Russia had signed off on this, that it would not have met the same fate as Minsk II. In otherwise, the Ukraine would probably have halted the shelling of the Donbass for a month or so, then gradually started it up again. This was about a month into the SMO, and the Ukrainians had already received a bit of a bloody nose, so such a deception would have bought them more time to further reinforce their defenses.
Let’s not forget that one of the Ukrainian negotiators was shot to death on a Kiev street while these Istanbul negotiations were going on.
Antoinetta III
Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jul 4 2023 14:12 utc | 2
Antoinetta III: I see your point, but it isn’t mutually exclusive with the argument you criticize. Perhaps there would’ve been a kind of Minsk III (Istanbul I?), followed shortly by a series of 404 regroupings and violations. But surely the Russians would anticipate all that, and respond forcefully.
Posted by: malenkov | Jul 4 2023 14:19 utc | 3
There was mention of the US being open to the Ukrainians being supplied with cluster munitions.
Pretty much banned everywhere else.
Any more details on that escalation of carnage?
Posted by: jpc | Jul 4 2023 14:22 utc | 4
Ukraine and the Western Media are shouting at the top of their lungs in preparation of a false flag attack on the ZNPP. All signs indicate that Washington is neck deep in all of it. The entire world except for those lost in the Empire of Lies see it for exactly what it is, a last desperate effort to change a game they are inevitably doomed to lose.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 4 2023 14:26 utc | 5
If it was a mutiny there must have been someone in moscow on whom prigozhin was betting on but didnt come out.
The idea to drive some 20h from rostow to moscow and take over moscow and the government is insane. It does make sence though if you assume somebody pressuring putin from within while the convoy is on its way.
“We will have a civil war, if you dont step back, Vladimir.”
So if the idea of mutiny is correct there must have been a mister x in moscow with whom prigozhin conspired.
Posted by: Orgel | Jul 4 2023 14:34 utc | 6
@Antoinetta III 4
naturally since there are no records to Istanbul, various minds will interpret various items as “evidence”.
And that would be that.
Beyond that:
I recall that Craig Murray who does know high-level personnel in Turkey was there in the summer of 2022. He was told certain things but was not free to share those.
How substantial they were only he knows. But if there had been nothing no need to mention in the first place.
If we look into what we have now and what was in the first 6 months of the war, there IS a difference.
Now not even talk about peace.
Back then there was.
So something behind the scenes was different back then. Something that has changed. And that this might have to do with peacefully ending it lies near to assume.
After all no Russian government has any interest in destroying its most important neighbour home to millions of its own citiziens or their relatives.
So as RU of course you don´t just go and bomb Ukraine.
(Which is one of the major mistakes in the far-fetched even if well-meant comparisons with NATO in Iraq and Afghanistan in the progressive MSM – those were in fact colonial wars far off the home coast. So the invading forces gave zero about the native people there. NOW is completely different. And therefore both sides in fact did have incentive for a peace deal. The Neonazis and nationalists did want the Russians cleansed out. They said so repeatedly. But they also said, not necessarily war. Simply for their own sake.)
And if you take the first peace talks from Febr. 26th on through April and then Istanbul you do have a logical pattern there. Concurrent with RU troops standing down at Kiev.
At least that would make sense.
To preemptively discard peace on the basis of Minsk failure is no justification to not at leat try. After all Hundreds of Thousands of people get killed and abroad many more suffer.
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 14:36 utc | 7
Ukraine and the Western Media are shouting at the top of their lungs in preparation of a false flag attack on the ZNPP.
@ JustAMaverick | Jul 4 2023 14:26 utc | 7
Someone shared this link to Hal Turner’s show in the last thread:
Attack against Ukraine Nuke Plant within 48 Hours? Local Wind Direction is the key for NATO to find cause to enter the war
I’ve encountered many such forecasts. Ukraine is said to be preparing a big splash for their so-called counteroffensive to precede Vilnius. Even the full moon has me spooked, this July 4th, for crying out loud. Having enjoyed a long life of exceptional privilege, it becomes my instant karma to spend my golden years enveloped in ever-escalating existential terror.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 4 2023 14:40 utc | 8
@ JustAMaverick (7)
I don’t think a ZNPP attack would be helpful to the west at all–in fact, I can’t think of many events that would be more likely to get the Russians to wipe Ukraine off the map than this, and even NATO realizes that it would lose on any “escalation.”
So what is really going on? I am speculating (with no evidence) that this is simply one of the last few (crappy) cards that the West has to play in its negotiations with Russia–some veiled threat that will hopefully get a very minor concession on something or other.
We shall see, I guess
Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 4 2023 14:53 utc | 9
@ Orgel | Jul 4 2023 14:34 utc | 6
The ‘mister x’ with whom Prigozhin conspired in Moscow was Putin.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jul 4 2023 15:06 utc | 10
Aleph_Null @ 8
RESPONSE: Hal Turner sees the current escalation potentially ending with nukes. Hal is seeing a coming false flag event in which the West creates a radiological release which affects NATO countries.
In a joint announcement both Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Richard Blumenthal stated that any radiological release within Ukraine would be grounds for activating article 5. They did not state there would be any investigation of which side actually caused the release.
When this release occurs, of course the media will blame Russia without any proof or due deligence. This in turn could result in NATO involking article 5 at the upcoming Vilnius Summit starting on July 11th.
Once NATO involks article 5, it could rapidly lead to direct attack upon Russia.
Russia would in-turn respond. I don’t think the West is going to believe the horror of the bear’s response.
The Western leaders are playing with fire not only for their own lives but also the lives of the nations they represent. Such is indeed pretty scary.
Posted by: young | Jul 4 2023 15:15 utc | 11
Re: Kiev‘s Econony
On another thread, there was a news item posted about a hospital in Kivry Rog (sp?) where the Doctors were complaining about the low salaries of 7,000 hyrinas a month for a surgeon. The local Mayor responded you don‘t like it go to the infrantry.
7.0000 hyrineas = 175€/month
To put in perspective, a trainee stocking shelves at Aldi starts at 1.100€ and after 120 days gets 1.300€ take home pay.
Conclusion; There is good reason why 16 million Ukrainians emigrared since 2014, and a additional 7 million decided on secession.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 15:16 utc | 12
Skiffer detailed overview of Ukraine’s recent history. Highly informative; from a previous thread.
If others interested:
Origin and Nature of neo-Nazism in UA
C14 and other neo-Nazi orgs
Impotence of Zelensky
Neo-Nazi influence in War conduct
Thanks Skiffer
Posted by: Browser | Jul 4 2023 15:24 utc | 14
Re: Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jul 4 2023 14:12 utc | 2
What I wonder is why this seems to be universally accepted. I see no reason to believe that if BoJo had not involved himself, and the Ukraine and Russia had signed off on this, that it would not have met the same fate as Minsk II. In otherwise, the Ukraine would probably have halted the shelling of the Donbass for a month or so, then gradually started it up again. This was about a month into the SMO, and the Ukrainians had already received a bit of a bloody nose, so such a deception would have bought them more time to further reinforce their defenses.
Let’s not forget that one of the Ukrainian negotiators was shot to death on a Kiev street while these Istanbul negotiations were going on.
Antoinetta III
Apparently Russia were going to sign this deal – which as for you – makes no sense at all to me!
Why announce a broad range of objectives and then turn around and a few weeks later sign a pointless agreement on a piece of paper that will surely be broken?
It makes no sense, but I guess I struggle with understanding the “inscrutable” Russians etc. etc.
Given how Russia has approached this whole conflict though – what are they going to achieve? Very hard to tell given the slow progress of the whole operation.
It does appear to me at times that Minsk III is on the cards – why not?
Posted by: Julian | Jul 4 2023 15:28 utc | 15
jpc @ 4 – ‘Cluster Munitions’
ukrainian-forces-are-using-outlawed-mines
The above was at Southfront, for what it is worth. Linking back to original source.
Posted by: Spen Fuelrod | Jul 4 2023 15:33 utc | 16
It’s fun to breathlessly speculate on false flags and mushroom clouds. Perhaps all the chatter will ameliorate the situation, diffuse things as the element of surprise is gone.
On the other hand, those ‘secular humanists’ who run the USA are drunk on Exceptionalism, and enthralled to Hollywood. There is absolutely nothing they won’t contemplate for mass murder.
On the other, other hand – for no reason other than hope – I feel negotiations coming on.
Cheers!
Posted by: gottlieb | Jul 4 2023 15:34 utc | 17
Browser no. 14
“Impotence of zelensky”
Cocaine causes “impotence”.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 4 2023 15:35 utc | 18
Note that the preparation of the waste nuclear warhead has already been done, according to this report.
Source: <The”>https://cont.ws/@voenkorr/2582009/”>The attack on the NPP is scheduled for tomorrow
The attack on the Zaporozhye NPP is scheduled for tomorrow
Posted July 4, 2023
According to information from operational sources, tomorrow 05.07.2023, at night, the [Ukrainian] APCS will try to attack the NPP [Nuclear Power Plant] using high-precision long-range means. As well as kamikaze UAVs.
At the same time, Ukraine will drop an ammunition loaded with radioactive waste removed from the South Ukrainian NPP on 03.07.2023 from an air carrier flying out of a military airfield in the south of 404.
The backup plan for the release of radioactive substances provides for the use of the ToccaU missile system, with a warhead filled with radioactive substances.
The information was made public with the consent of the [Russian] special services.
https://t.me/RLSsvodka
***
Our source in the OP [Office of the President] said that at the exit rate at the Rivne NPP, they discussed scenarios of situations at the Zaporozhye NPP with nuclear engineers and the formats greatly surprised the President’s Office. Zelensky was explained that the difference between any future accident as a result of provocation at the NPP and Chernobyl is that Chernobyl was like a boiling boiler with a constant release of radionuclides into the atmosphere, hence the pollution reached Europe, and it flew around the Earth after making a couple of turns. At the [Zaporozhye] NPP, as a result of any provocation, the territory within a radius of a couple of tens of kilometers will be polluted to a greater extent, [but] with an increase in the distance from the epicenter of the explosion, radiation pollution will decrease, radioactive “heavy” elements will rise into the air and settle along the release flare. The main radioactive pollutants in spent fuel at the CNF include: iodine-131, strontium-90, caesium-137, cobalt-60. These are heavy elements, they will not fly far through the air and will settle on the ground for a radius of 3-10 kilometers, depending on the strength of the wind and possibly precipitation.
The consequences will be eliminated by emergency crews within a week. Moreover, it will take a day for monitoring / analysis and decision-making, 3-7 days to eliminate the consequences at the NPP site.
It will not be like Chernobyl, but there will be pollution and an increase in the gamma background.
For now, the gamma background is in the range of 8-12 micro-Roentgens per hour. After the explosion, there will be up to 12,000,000 micro-Roentgens per hour (i.e. 120 milli-Sieverts per hour) in the epicenter. At the Epicenter, this will be a million times greater than normal background radiation.
In a kilometer from the Epicenter there will be from 120 to 1200 micro-Roentgens per hour. Exceeding [background radiation] by a factor between 10 and 100.
***
⚡️ Ukraine has disconnected the 750 kV power transmission line supplying electricity to the Zaporozhye NPP, adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom Karchaa. Thus, the “404” state is preparing to prevent a jump on its lines so as not to overload.
Yandex translated, with minor fixes.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jul 4 2023 15:55 utc | 19
Professor Mearsheimer explains the Ukranian war situation to Glenn Greenwald. This is an exceellent 9 minute video.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1675929138346196992
Posted by: morongobill | Jul 4 2023 15:55 utc | 20
Sorry for all the bolding, another typo. But obviously this info is worth the bolding.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jul 4 2023 16:00 utc | 21
ZNPP fearmongering is just that. It’s a 14 yo doing suicide blackmail if someone dare to cut her pocket money because of her low grades.
Come on, this is not how blackmailing works … re-opening prosecutor Shokin files would be more efficient.
Posted by: Savonarole | Jul 4 2023 16:04 utc | 22
Posted by: jpc | Jul 4 2023 14:22 utc | 4
If they send the antiarmor cluster munition rockets that the M270 MARS system was built around they will be an escalation that will have a response as those could be battlefield effective if they still have many MARS/HiMARS launchers left. If they are air dropped they are unlikely to trigger much of a response as Ukraine has little ability to get aircraft over target to use gravity bombs.
Keep in mind the USA is already sending 155mm RAAM rounds and has been for a year at this point. RAAM is round that drops 8 submunitions so it is already a ‘cluster munition’ that is more effective than gravity bomb type cluster munitions would be to the AFU.
Posted by: badjoke | Jul 4 2023 16:06 utc | 23
@ young | Jul 4 2023 15:15 utc | 11
Once NATO involks article 5, it could rapidly lead to direct attack upon Russia.
Yes, as a worst nightmarish solution.
Assuming that NATO has been flying around 20 overseas cargo flights a day for almost a year, including 150 military cargo ships ticked in Rotterdam and Danzig, while not counting cargo internal EU flights and such, one can only imagine the amount of equipment brought in.
Surely NATO thinks that a weak, untrained and under-equipped Russian army is an easy pray.
NATO might follow the thought of “if you want to do things, better do it yourself” and will fall in a disgrace, while being obliterated along the line of contact for a good measure. I doubt that EU citizens will be targeted, as Ukrainian are not as well.
I think NATO will not dare to attack RF directly.
Otherwise CIA, wouldn’t call Moscow, claiming that they have nothing to do with “Vagner’s uprising”. That is not the most powerful country in a world attitude and a behavior, but a clear sign of a cowardice, or so it appears.
If the rumors of amassed 200.000 RF manpower are true, I think that RF will soon go to the offensive, sweeping from the North to the South and Westwards, liberating significant territory and Russian cities under the Ukrainian regime, and NATO cannot do a squirt about it, except pour some trash in weapons to those willing to die. Be it Ukrainians, Polish or Romanians.
This whole mess ends rather soon, only like that, in a total disaster for NATO.
So let them try.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 4 2023 16:12 utc | 24
Let me just remind everybody in the bar various posters have been predicting a major false flag as an excuse for NATO to enter the war for well over a year now.
The reason is three fold:
1 USnato don’t need excuses to enter wars. If they want one anyway they just make something up.
2 You can’t arrange false flags in densely media and intelligence covered areas like Ukraine with out getting caught.
3 USnato don’t want to enter a war they know they will lose. They are mad, they are not stupid.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 4 2023 16:15 utc | 25
Please insert “There won’t be any this time either.” at the end of the first paragraph.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 4 2023 16:18 utc | 26
@morongobill 20
Mearsheimer never answers that one question why the Russians dont want UKR in NATO in a satisfying way.
He always brings forward 2 arguments:
Crimean peninsula
WMDs in UKR
however, Crimea is Russian since 2014. So thats off the map anyway.
As to WMDs and missile attacks.
It eventually doesn´t matter to the leaky Russian defense system if missiles come from Germany, from Poland, from Romania or from Ukraine (or Finland.)
So the question is still out there: What are the very specific threats of Ukraine, that no other nation would pose?
I am asking this because these are precisely the arguments I am confronted with by people who are not on our side to put it mildly.
Of course as a layman I can speculate and talk stuff about the Russian-Ukr. border being thwarted permanently.
etc.
But I really would have liked an expert with some military knowledge talk about this.
(personally I still think the real deal are ths US nuclear forces which are beyond any discussion anyway.)
And then Mearsheimer makes a clear error:
Mearsheimer claims that RU was loathing UKR in the European Union.
This is most likely simply false.
Maidan took place for the very reason that Yanukovych had managed a deal with the EU AND RU.
And RU was fine with that.
(Read Nicolai Petro for that.)
And this the Nazis did not like. So what they did was block the vote for ratification of those deals in the Rada.
THATS when the trouble started.
So Mearsheimer is not infallible.
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 16:19 utc | 27
Does anyone follow the military summary channel? And know a written version of the same?
Their updates are good, but I am losing interest in watching ~10 minute updates on the war daily (I use x2 on Youtube)
Posted by: GoFast | Jul 4 2023 16:20 utc | 28
btw Stoltenberg one more year for NATO
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/jens-stoltenberg-nato-verlaengert-vertrag-des-generalsekretaers-bis-oktober-2024-a-00cafaa0-2777-420a-89b6-d77343c85b74
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 16:25 utc | 29
JessDTruth | Jul 4 2023 15:55 utc | 19
Thanks for posting this, but I do not believe any of that.
That is sheer NATO fear mongering.
The only danger that is real is blowing cooling ponds with nuclear waste, and that is not causing nowhere near such pollution.
Everything else is just babble.
Just logic presses one to ask, that knowing all that RF is doing nothing about it, but will wait and let this happen?
Sure.
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 4 2023 16:26 utc | 30
@ Savonarole 22
ZNPP fearmongering is just that. It’s a 14 yo doing suicide blackmail if someone dare to cut her pocket money because of her low grades.
So was it the Ukrainian special services that released this info, and not the Russian ? I don’t have a Telegram account, so I haven’t seen that posting. That could mean it’s only a punk suicide note, but in the run-up to the Vilnius NATO summit, it’s still newsworthy. We will know by Thursday morning.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jul 4 2023 16:27 utc | 31
Posted by: GoFast | Jul 4 2023 16:20 utc | 28
I just fast forward, only stopping when he moves map location, always remember he’s an amateur, so he’s most useful giving a brief theatre summary; however, When he starts moving virtual brigades around I hit the ff on the remote. He also suffers from ‘monetised commentator’ syndrome where every day the conflict is in the balance, whereas the reality is a far less dramatic erosion of Ukrainian combat power and with it steady limiting of their combat capabilities.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 4 2023 16:35 utc | 32
@ AG, §29:
Jens “Dr Strangelove” StolenTurd is a complete ventriloquist´s dummy. So ideal for the job.
Posted by: John Marks | Jul 4 2023 16:37 utc | 33
https://helenaglass.net/2023/05/26/victoria-nuland-inciting-wwiii-with-russia/#:~:text=Victoria%20Nuland,%20head%20of%20US%20State%20Department,%20has,NATO%20Summit,%20a%20one%20day%20meeting%20in%20Lithuania.
Is any of this true? Nuland declares WW3 ?
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 4 2023 16:52 utc | 34
NATO extends Stoltenberg’s mandate in move welcomed by Ukraine
G7 congratulation tweet magnet
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 4 2023 16:52 utc | 35
@John Marks 34
Ted Postol once said “Rasmussen? This guy is so dumb he makes me cry. And now this Stoltenberg guy. Same thing.”
(Do they actually cast them in a TV show confined to Scandinavian candidates?)
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 16:52 utc | 36
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 4 2023 16:52 utc | 36
Funding sources for the Council come from the common array of leftist sources; Rockefeller, Goldman, Facebook, Google, US State Depart, ie Nuland, – however, one stand out funder is Burisma Holdings. The same Burisma that was paying Hunter Biden and Big Daddy
From the article. I cannot take seriously anybody who calls those entities “leftist”.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 4 2023 17:02 utc | 37
It’s fun to breathlessly speculate on false flags and mushroom clouds.
On the other, other hand – for no reason other than hope – I feel negotiations coming on.
Cheers!
Posted by: gottlieb | Jul 4 2023 15:34 utc | 17
Let’s stay speculating and negotiate!
Posted by: jpc | Jul 4 2023 17:11 utc | 38
As I commented earlier on Larry Johnson’s site, I wonder if Russia shouldn’t – or actually isn’t, see the missile hitting Kramatorsk – target meeting points and staging areas with plenty of NATO presence, to deliberately kill some of them right now, before the Vilnius meeting, and see how much they want to welcome Ukraine among them, when they’ll know how easily they can be killed there. Time to make the prospect of going to Ukraine as unappealing as possible to NATO troops and officers, so that they’ll just try to dodge it or downright oppose and refuse such deployments.
AG – 27
I’d say, apart from historical and ethno-religious reasons, Ukraine is the soft South-Western underbelly of Russia. Once you’re at the Belgorod border, you’re quite close to Moscow. Granted, you’re closer to Russian core from Tallinn or Helsinki, but at this point I suspect it’s mostly a logistics issue: it’s ridiculously easy to stage a massive amount of troops around Kiev and supply them, than it is to put hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of tanks in Finland or Baltic States – it would be more easily spotted and the logistics would be trickier. Granted, the major rail link from Tallinn to Warsaw might help in a few years, but the whole geostrategic position of Baltic States makes them basically undefensible if Russia attacks soon enough, and Finland would require massive air and sea traffic. On the other hand, the whole Poland-Belarus-Ukraine flank is wide open, and requires more strategic depth on Russia’s side. I mean, this is where previous European invasions came from – Poland in early 17th century, Charles XII, Napoleon, 3rd Reich.
Of course, this goes both ways and I understand very well that Russia’s neighbours are a bit on the edge, besides they have a far more limited strategic depth (if any when it comes to Baltics), and I see their point in wanting some military guarantees (NATO in our current case). As often happens, a case of missed opportunities to settle the entire area peacefully with a regional non-aggression treaty, or something like this – of course, since NATO and USA would’ve hated such an outcome, there barely was any chance of it to happen, even if there wasn’t the massive dislike former Soviet satellites feel towards Russia.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 4 2023 17:14 utc | 39
Jessdtruth at 19
The technical content of the statement is correct, based on my understanding.
The Zaphrohyte PWR’s have been shut down for quite a while and the decay heat will be fairly low and falling. They will be using low pressure decay heat removal via electric pumps and heat exchangers, no doubt now powered by diesel generators. The PWR pressure vessels and piping are very thick steel and not readily damaged. The time from shutdown is critical, a point is eventually reached where the decay heat is low enough to be safe.
Bombing the PWR dry store would just make a nasty nuclear mess. It could create a ‘China syndrome’ critical mass, but this wouldn’t explode, just sizzle.
Bombing the NPP would create a filthy radioactive mess and be difficult and expensive to clean up properly.
Just a stupid thing to do. That doesn’t usually stop the empire of lies through.
Cheers, Oldengineer
Posted by: Oldengineer | Jul 4 2023 17:21 utc | 40
No one bothers to read the news? Power is back. tass.com/economy/1642411
All npps in Ukr are at risk to be used as nukes thanks to “slow is best” and multiple “difficult decisions”. Those under Ukr control even more. If it’s not ZNPP, not tomorrow, it can be another one, another year, gift for another nato summit. What’s the difference?
Posted by: rk | Jul 4 2023 17:22 utc | 41
What is the point of negotiating if the collective west is, as Lavrov describes it, “Non-Agreement Capable?”
Antoinetta III
Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jul 4 2023 17:25 utc | 42
Stoltenberg must be furious at being forced to stay on as NATO civilian head. It’s costing him tens of millions. Stolentenberg was supposed to start early last year as boss of the Norwegian Soveriegn Wealth Fund where he’d easily make 1 million a monthly.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 17:28 utc | 43
There must be a fundamental reason and perhaps obvious reason as to why Stoltenberg has been granted another year at NATO.
Posted by: AI | Jul 4 2023 17:35 utc | 44
Posted by: jpc | Jul 4 2023 14:22 utc | 4
cluster munitions.
I can understand why Russia doesn’t want to use cluster munitions in what is essentially a civil war however Russia isn’t a signator to the convention on cluster munitions and if Ukraine escalates to using cluster bombs Russia has vastly larger stocks of the weapons in just about every type of missile and bomb they use.
I can also understand why the USA wants to give them to Ukraine … they don’t just kill military age men but kill all slavs … women children young and old … and will continue do do so for generations which pretty much jives with US / GB foreign policy of the last 100 years.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 4 2023 17:38 utc | 45
I am not understanding the concern over the Vilnius meeting. Turkey is not going to do anything that is going to put them at risk of losing trade with Russia. They will not only lose their milled flour export business to other countries such as Iran and China they would be at risk of famine if Russia responds hostilely to anything that comes out of it. Ukraine sells well to white countries because they can overlook the white supremacist ideology of Bandera and his followers. Not so much the ones Bandera called ‘Asiatic sub-humans’ IE Hungary, Turkey.
Ukraine is losing on the battlefield because they have fanatics involved in strategy who will not give up ground to improve their tactical position. Had they been willing to fight a proper maneuver war they might have exposed poor command in the RF but as it stands we will never know as the RF has just been able to sit back and drop artillery on AFU troops and have them bring more and more to die under the gun. Watching this has just been sickening.
Posted by: badjoke | Jul 4 2023 17:38 utc | 46
Bemildred@37….gas and oil still flow through the war theatre. Graft and grift all across 404, big guy and little guy, seeing little guy got off, still getting their 10%……war? What war……
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 4 2023 17:38 utc | 47
@49
oil and gas normally flows from Russia to Europe via Ukraine,
only chickens get killed to enrich the table of the rich.
Posted by: A.cagliostro | Jul 4 2023 17:46 utc | 48
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 4 2023 17:38 utc | 49
Yeah, and I ask you, is that leftist? I think not. That is capitalist enterpreneurial money grubbing.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 4 2023 17:49 utc | 49
reply to 46
Related to that is the question of why and how the US gets away with its insulting treatment of Britain. It is claimed that Biden vetoed UK’s choice for NATO because he was once involved with Northern Ireland and Biden objected.And where’s the free trade pact to follow Brexit?
If national leaders can have huge collective egos in regard to empire and wars, they must feel humiliation and anger over the contempt the US shows them. The British show “Spooks” once offered a lamentation that they are just streetwalkers being pimped out. Ridiculous.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 4 2023 17:52 utc | 50
A Zero chance for peace under the Biden administration. The US and NATO war parties are about to hold a congress of how to defeat Russia by proxy, within the Ukraine. The NATO meetings will further expose the cracks in the alliance and there will be no agreement with several NATO states are not going along with conflict against Russia. The Baltic states and Poland want war with Russia, punching way above their geopolitical weight and worth. The question is, will NATO be blackmailed by US/UK/Ukrainian pro-warriors to further escalate and continue the war against Russia? There is no chance of NATO victory in a proxy conflict with Russia, to what end does furthering the war provide either side? The backlash is being felt with social strife spreading across NATO countries who’ve ignored the problems they’ve created by sanctions and war against Russia. The western political war profiteers days are numbered as they are meeting more internal opposition. In the short run expect more war and more inflation, grain, gas and metals. It’s just another day in the wilderness.
Posted by: Bill Miner | Jul 4 2023 17:58 utc | 51
Nice headline … Jens definitely wanted to stop … a united NATO was unable to agree on a successor … veto by #Joe … diversity EU/non-EU … male/female … old or new Europe … frontline state representation or a more reasoned person … de-risking most important in a crucial phase of the NATO confrontation with Russia 😂 disappointment by Mark Rutte … has been strong Russophobic since July 2014.
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 16:19 utc | 27
>Mearsheimer never answers that one question why the Russians dont want UKR in NATO in a satisfying way.
Good question. I think it’s similar to why would it matter if Russia/China put military bases and nuclear missiles in Canada versus stationing missile ships or subs off the eastern coast of the USA, with hypersonic missiles ready to fire at a moment’s notice. Missiles from ship or sub would hit Washington faster than from Canada. So why should USA care if Canada becomes a Russian/Chinese vassal?
To me, as a USA citizen, there is something gut-wrenching about losing Canada, whereas Russian/Chinese ships/subs off the coast is just very provocative behavior and we can respond tit for tat to provoke the other side, then presumably back down the situation. Similarly, losing Canada “feels” worse to me, as USA citizen, than losing Mexico, and losing Mexico feels worse than losing Cuba, maybe because USA already lost Cuba.
I think the Russians reacted to Ukraine not because missiles in Ukraine is a true military threat but because Ukraine was just one red line too many. Russia knows USA has been trying to regime change Russia essentially forever, and they finally got sick of USA provocations and decided to put their foot down. I think they also wanted to send a powerful message to all the other former USSR states plus Finland. Assuming Russia prevails in the war with Ukraine, that message will be: “We beat the living crap out of Ukraine because they had the audacity to invite the USA military into our neighborhood. Now that we’re finished fucking up Ukraine, we are ready and willing to do the same thing to anyone else who makes the same mistake as Ukraine did. Anyone want to test us?”
And I think USA would react in the same way, to send a similar message, if Canada invited Russia/China military to set up shop in Canada. Only reason USA didn’t invade and Cuba was because the agreement with USSR forbade that. But USA did fuck Cuba up, and continues to do so.
Unfortunate that geopolitics is at the level of prison gangs, but that’s reality.
Posted by: Revelo | Jul 4 2023 18:02 utc | 53
Posted by: Oui | Jul 4 2023 18:00 utc | 52
Von der Leyen’s gigg is up in the EU next year…. she is a worthy successor.
Posted by: Okille | Jul 4 2023 18:05 utc | 54
Browser no. 14
“Impotence of zelensky”
Cocaine causes “impotence”.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 4 2023 15:35 utc | 18
The US Secret Service has announced that they have discovered a container of white powder that they suspect is Cocaine in the West Wing of the White House. Given the recent visits by Hunter Biden, it might be his. However; it might belong to Joe Biden. Our President’s rare moments of seeming lucidity might be the result of orating under the influence.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 4 2023 18:05 utc | 55
Yes the reason for extending Stoltenberg’s term by one year is absolutely valid. They want Uschi von der Leyen, known in German as “Flinten-Uschi,” as his successor. But she will not be available until next summer. She was the perfect placeholder for the US neocon criminals and such a one is of course useful in such a position. You can’t waste that. Or definite preparation for the third world war.
Posted by: Tom Switzerland | Jul 4 2023 18:12 utc | 56
@ Okille, §54:
Trust you´re being sarcastic with the “worthy”.
Von der Lying is a convicted felon (corruption when German MoD).
So eminently blackmailable, especially over all the shady dealings with Big Pharma.
She might not be such an obedient dummy as StolenTurd but Washington has many methods . . .
Posted by: John Marks | Jul 4 2023 18:15 utc | 57
“..Von der Leyen’s gigg is up in the EU next year…. she is a worthy successor.” Okille@54
Jig or gig. Both really.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 4 2023 18:19 utc | 58
Full Transcript
28 June 2023 16:00
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with the Great Game programme on Channel One, Moscow, June 28, 2023
https://mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/1894262/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 4 2023 18:25 utc | 59
@Clueless Joe 39
thx for that hands-on take.
Yes the geography has not really changed since 1812 in essence.
Thus then we truly speak of warfare.
Nothing less.
Even though that ought not to be the way for the future it is simply the way of thinking for military planners who have to think the unthinkable.
At least if you ask them to do their job.
And if you must assume out there some people truly want your skalp.
But how do you prove THAT to the public?
That´s difficult. Since NATO is so fucking peaceful.
So if you argue the Mearsheimer way (offensive/defensive dilemma etc.) you are on the safe side for any discussion since all countries do this.
It´s called national security
(even though until this war I never accepted this term. Since as Chomsky once pointed out correctly national security is almost never about the security of a nation. But that was true for countries in superior positions.)
p.s. but what I dont buy into is that any European national security entity in earnest believes the Russians are genuinely posing a danger to them.
They would never admit this in public of course.
But they KNOW.
They know it the same way NATO in the Cold War knew they could knock out Russia by WMDs without fear of retalitation for many years.
Arcane stuff that is classified for 100 years. But its reality.
thx
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 18:25 utc | 60
27 & 53
Ukraine is a flat terrain land bridge, a fast invasion route, from Europe into Russia. Mountains and Black Sea to the South and dense forest (Belarus) to the North. Napolean and Hitler invaded Russia through Ukraine. A conventional war of occupation requires boots on the ground.
Plus, The US wouldn’t allow Soviet missiles in Cuba 60 years ago for obvious reason
Posted by: czechlist | Jul 4 2023 18:25 utc | 61
On the night of July 5, Kiev is going to attack the ZNPP using high-precision weapons and kamikaze drones – adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom Karchaa
https://t.me/ConflictChronicles/8958
Also, more strikes on the vicinity of southern end of Antonovsky bridge.
https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1676293540538912768
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 18:27 utc | 62
Good Day B,
I believe this is pertinent to Ukraine conflict and it seemed relevant to me. I read this morning an article on RT, about a reporter and lawyer who were accosted in Chechnya. These two strike me as left wing Soros trouble stirrers. They were apparently trying to point out the societal injustice of something concocted out of thin air. Interesting to see the comments of disgust and horror from the expected crowd.
My thoughts are; Russia and Chechnya as brother nations are at war. A terrible war costing hundreds of thousands of lives. Of course people will over-react to the messengers of chaos. They got away lightly, and are VERY fortunate to still have their heads solidly attached to their shoulders.
Putin’s message to folks like this, who stir trouble in an effort to destabilize the country in a time of existential crisis, should be that they may expect no sympathy, in fact only wrath and profound malice.
To the commenters reeling in horror at the liberated woman’s head-shaving and dunking with green antiseptic painted crown and the lawyers roughing up;
Please think carefully about the 10s of thousands of men been forcibly blown to smithereens and shot to pieces, losing life and limb, depriving their families of loved ones, or the innocent civilians killed purposely by Nazi terrorists. Think on it, that these two arseholes indirectly work for the benefit of those who instigated and perpetuate this terrible war.
May Russia and Chechnya prevail.
Posted by: Aobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 4 2023 18:28 utc | 63
❗️ Ukraine on the night of July 5 intends to hit ZNPP with a Tochka-U missile with a warhead stuffed with nuclear waste – Karchaa
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 18:30 utc | 65
Andrei Martyanov scheduled to be live with the Alexes on the Duran today — in a couple minutes from now, discussing next week’s NATO meeting and surrounds.
https://theduran.com/critical-week-before-nato-summit-live-w-andrei-martyanov/
Posted by: suzan | Jul 4 2023 18:31 utc | 66
Does anyone follow the military summary channel? And know a written version of the same
Posted by: GoFast | Jul 4 2023 16:20 utc | 28
You could use the YouTube transcript and just read or glance over that:
https://youtubetranscript.com/
Posted by: Zet | Jul 4 2023 18:33 utc | 67
Re Mearsheimer failing to explain importance of Ukraine to Russia.
Leaving all the cultural, historical and humanitarian reasons aside, Crimea and the port of Sevastopol is a strategically crucial commercial and military asset due to all–year ice free access to Black Sea, Mediterranean and from there on to Suez Canal (plus alternative access to Atlantic). With the Maidan coup a decades spanning lease provision from 90’s legacy contracts between Russia and Ukraine was clearly at risk for at least not being extended (that expiration date was this or next decade if my memory not betrays me).*
You want to push the initial contact line for a –obviously inevitable – major war with some iteration of 4th Reich/EU, NATO from the extensive flat lands that stretch all the way to Moscow to the Dnjpr river or even carpathian hills/Dnstr river.
Finland and Baltics are wrt topography, population, distances etc. (Belerus, Kaliningrad) something lesser of an issue.
Lastly one should think not in terms of years, but decades and ages. A full fledge nuklearized NATO Ukraine, would manage to root out most if not all traces of Rusdian cultures in the matter of one generation. Such a „successful“ Ukrainian Oligarchy would also work as a template for receptive strata of the Caucasian peoples (remember Chechenya).
Even before having the benefit of hindsight I cannot imagine Putin going into retirement leaving his country in such grave danger of historic dimensions.
*Btw Janukowitsches negotiation target to secure provisions within said EU association agreement that would safeguard Ukraines vital interests in maintaining close commercial ties with Russia (trade agreement) was the trigger for the EU to denounce J using all their (and the US‘s) influence to trigger Maidan. In the process, Nuland wrestled the movement and coup out of the EU‘s hands. Some intense weeks of relentless work certainly that was(unironically).
Posted by: Arminius | Jul 4 2023 18:33 utc | 68
Politically, I can’t see Putin signing Minsk3 at any point..Even if he wanted it, the Russian people, Medvedev and the Generals would not buy into it, because there’s too much water under the bridge, and Russia is actually profiting immensely from the war, with NATO being disarmed and Europeans weary of it…
Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 4 2023 18:39 utc | 69
Gottlieb @ 17 and responder @38. I feel as you do. It seems to me that quietly but gathering momentum is a diminishing of the ‘obsession’ with Ukraine. Firstly, the recent statement by the Austrian Chancellor in terms of Russia being integral to Europe, now Latvia starting to re-issue Visas for Russia and I believe the Czech Republic is making moves to resume some business with Russia. Also, the Statements from NATO about Ukraine not becoming a member and of now, a bit too late in my view, indicating they cannot attend the main meetings of the NATO countries only attend slots when invited. Yesterday, Zelensky’s appearance on TV indicating the SBU HQ at Sumy had been bombed and destroyed he sounded edgy and nervous. Hungary is saying they will not agree to any further funding by the EU to Ukraine. France is on Fire, literally, although Macron doesn’t give a damn about the French citizens, he is, in no doubt, a seriously weakened President who is vain, power mad and allowing his country to be ruined just for Ukraine. He doesn’t have any real authority in France now. A more honourable man would have resigned the Presidency by now realising that he no longer had the trust or mandate of the people
These riots are spreading to Belgium, Switzerland and will spread further in Europe. I can see it coming soon to Italy as Meloni has sold out to the USA and seriously let the Italian people down. There is this strange meeting in Copenhagen that happened but nobody knows the outcome of. Janet Yellen is angling to go to Beijing because BRICS is really taking off and, at the upcoming meeting, it looks as though they are going to launch a gold backed reserve currency.
Very very slowly and quietly it seems to me as though the collective West is beginning to fragment on the issue of Ukraine and so is NATO. Once one country, such as Austria has done, well done the Chancellor of Austria, makes clear and definitive statements about Ukraine and continued support or not (well done Orban too) the momentum will gather at a faster rate than expected. The V d Liars of this world will be truly isolated. It’s a shame Scholz is such a complete and utter useless idiot, he could have been so influential here.
So I’m with you guys! I feel hope. Blow that trumpet. Let the walls of Jericho tumble. Negotiation or unconditional surrender!
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Jul 4 2023 18:42 utc | 70
OK, this is funny:
Russia has lost half its combat capability in Ukraine, says UK armed forces chief (FT, July 4, 2023)
link: https://www.ft.com/content/8cd1c388-6fb9-497b-a8a9-14b6ea21ede2#comments-anchor
Russian army has lost up to half of key battle tanks, analysts estimate (the Guardian, February 15, 2023)
link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/russian-army-has-lost-up-to-half-of-key-battle-tanks-analysts-estimate-ukraine
I know there have been lots of recycled headlines, but I am amazed that with the AI available they can’t at least change the wording from time to time.
Or perhaps the conclusion to be drawn is that Russia has not lost any tanks over the past 5 months?
Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 4 2023 18:44 utc | 71
Aleks from Black Mountain Analysis thinks Russia could start an own counteroffensive…
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-analysis-i
Posted by: Thomas | Jul 4 2023 18:45 utc | 72
In response to Antoinetta III@2,
Although I understand that the preliminary agreement in Istanbul might appear like another Minsk on the face of it, including the sort of lackluster results one might expect to come of it, it was in fact of an entirely different scope and purpose to Minsk.
Whereas Minsk was an agreement to achieve a politically regulated solution working through Ukrainian elected representatives in the government and parliament and with the backing and support of the guarantor states composing the Minsk contact group, the attempted agreement in Istanbul was not a political document at all — it was a security agreement.
The primary purpose of the Istanbul agreement went to the heart of the Ukrainian problem and the reason for their failure and inability to implement Minsk, in that it dealt specifically with the Ukrainian security structures who are not, I repeat not, subservient to the Ukrainian political establishment.
I have to give props to Browser@14 for linking to my somewhat winded attempt to explain my view of the situation in a previous thread, but it’s a lot of information to condense and crucial to understanding the Ukrainian situation in general, and what the Istanbul agreement would have meant in particular.
If we look at the situation with an understanding that the Ukrainian army, secret services and police operate in a separate and independent capacity from the political block, and are furthermore not shy about enforcing their own terms for what constitutes acceptable state policy, the purpose and significance of the Istanbul agreement becomes very clear, since it is above all else an agreement to dismantle, restructure and put this block back under political control at a reduced size.
The first step would have involved uprooting the neo-Nazi ideology infesting the security structures, the so-called denazification. The result of this would unavoidably be a complete collapse of Ukrainian security architecture and, quite likely, provoke a military uprising. In other words, the SMO would probably have continued even with the finalization of the Istanbul peace proposal, only now with the full approval and support of the Ukrainian political establishment and, likely, at a much smaller scale.
The second step, demilitarization, would have imposed a ceiling on the military equipment available to the reformed Ukrainian security structure, meaning that it would be reconstituted under Russian supervision. This transitional period would leave Ukraine utterly defenseless, relying entirely on Russia, and whoever else would be willing and accepted to join, to handle threats both internal and external.
And, naturally, Russia would be expected to leave Ukrainian territory once the terms of the agreement had been fulfilled — a significant trust exercise — for which Ukraine sought other state guarantors, to which Russia did not object. However, the prospect of expelling Russia from a demilitarized Ukraine, which is the commitment Ukraine was asking from the West, would ultimately be beyond their ability. Ukraine was either asking Western leaders to lie to them by agreeing, or buying itself time by introducing an impossible clause which it knew would be rejected.
Ultimately, it was not the rejection of this agreement by the West that torpedoed the peace proposal — it was the long-term commitment of weapon shipments that came along with it. The Nazis were given the choice of fighting for as long as they were able with the entirety of Western weapons stockpiles at their disposal, or being unceremoniously dumped in a ditch somewhere. At no point would it have mattered what Zelensky thought about the situation, or what it meant for Ukraine.
There were of course several points of contention relating to the sides having to accept the facts on the ground, but these were not, in my opinion, as critical to the agreement as people thought.
Refusal to formally accept Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine was perfectly acceptable to Russia, provided Ukraine drop any pretense of trying to reincorporate it by force — which Russia would be making sure of anyway. Refusal to outright cede Donetsk and Lugansk as part of the treaty, instead insisting on another round of referendums some time well into the future to determine their formal status — also acceptable, despite being a controversial point of contention among the general public.
Although Russia never agreed to these points, as far as I know, there was at that time no reason not to allow them to be a matter of discussion, since the outcome 99.9/100 would have been the same either way. The only crucial aspect was that the Ukrainian president, ruling party and parliament distance themselves from the army and security apparatus, sign a deal stabbing them in the back (to fit with their Nazi cosplay) and come under the protection of Russian armed forces until such a time as Ukrainian security structures were reestablished.
Russia expects to have to do this work with or without Ukrainian agreement, but if it could be done with their agreement it would certainly severely limit the extent to which Western states would be able to involve themselves in the process and the effort required by Russia to accomplish its objective.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 4 2023 18:49 utc | 73
French unrest
Well it’s Tuesday now and appears that the riots will not turn into a political uprising instead the riots were just a outburst of unfocused anger. Happens in the US every 20-30 years
Round-up-the-usual-suspects.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 18:53 utc | 74
@Posted by: Arminius | Jul 4 2023 18:33 utc | 69
*Btw Janukowitsches negotiation target to secure provisions within said EU association agreement that would safeguard Ukraines vital interests in maintaining close commercial ties with Russia (trade agreement) was the trigger for the EU to denounce J using all their (and the US‘s) influence to trigger Maidan. In the process, Nuland wrestled the movement and coup out of the EU‘s hands. Some intense weeks of relentless work certainly that was(unironically).
I think that you mean Yanukovych, the ex-President of Ukraine. The EU association agreement was an incredibly one-sided neo-colonial type document, and yes as soon as he wanted to negotiate a more balanced agreement the West triggered Maidan. A recent analysis that carefully went over the Ukrainian Maidan hearings (where the obvious truth was intentionally ignored) has confirmed that it was shooters from Maiden-Controlled buildings who were shooting both protestors and police to help trigger a coup d’état. Only the day before the opposition forces had gotten Yanukovych to reduce the security forces protecting himself and government officials.
The paper is titled “The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations” by Ivan Katchanovski at the University of Ottawa. Published as open access in the journal Russian Politics. The abstract:
This study analyzes revelations from the trial and investigation in Ukraine concerning the mass killing that took place in Kyiv on 20 February 2014. This Maidan massacre of protesters and police led to the overthrow of the Yanukovych government and ulti- mately to the Russian annexation of Crimea, the civil war and Russian military inter- ventions in Donbas, and the Ukraine-Russia and West-Russia conflicts which Russia escalated by illegally invading Ukraine in 2022. The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, nearly 100 prosecution and defense witnesses, synchronized vid- eos, and medical and ballistic examinations by government experts pointed unequivo- cally to the fact that the Maidan protesters were massacred by snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings. To date, however, due to the political sensitivity of these findings and cover-up, no one has been convicted for this massacre. The article dis- cusses the implications of these revelations for the Ukraine-Russia war and the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations.
A video analysis done by the author
Of course, crickets in the Western press about this peer reviewed article that lays out the evidence that the snipers were part of the Maidan coup apparatus.
Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 4 2023 14:53 utc | 9
I don’t think a ZNPP attack would be helpful to the west at all–in fact, I can’t think of many events that would be more likely to get the Russians to wipe Ukraine off the map than this, and even NATO realizes that it would lose on any “escalation.”…
Unless of course you look at the world through the prism that we’ve always been at war with Eurasia.
In which case, the destruction of an essential regional water reservoir, the destruction of invaluable energy assets and, more generally, wholesale destruction of infrastructure, the huge demographic gash, the sowing of ill will, mistrust and the durable severing of relations on a continental scale, the undermining of economic prospect, and so on.
I tend to think that a major nuclear incident with long term regional effects would very much fit in this strategy.
Posted by: robin | Jul 4 2023 19:13 utc | 76
In Ukraine, 80 % of conscripts now come through “raids” off the street and into private houses. The war, in an organized manner is effectively over, it’s just mass murder of Ukrainians by Kiev regime now encouraged by Azov and Kraken detachments shooting in the back.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 19:17 utc | 77
What is the point of negotiating if the collective west is, as Lavrov describes it, “Non-Agreement Capable?”
Antoinetta III
Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jul 4 2023 17:25 utc | 42
You should go read Lavrov’s explanation on this very matter for your answer. He addressed this in an interview he gave to a Portuguese reporter the other day.
Posted by: Scuppers | Jul 4 2023 19:18 utc | 78
when apparently there is not so much happening German think tanks “happen”.
2 reports properly scheduled for NATO summit on how to make Ukraine feel safe again.
(sry if I am going down the Me2 path here, but I have read too much German bullshit which compared Ukraine with a female victim of rape)
The colleagues from German-Foeign-Policy-Blog:
“The debate over security guarantees – German think tanks urge Ukraine’s NATO accession and security guarantees by a European coalition of the willing. Ukraine may want to arm itself with nuclear weapons.”
04
Jul
2023
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/9286
intro:
BERLIN/KIEV (Own report) – The two largest German think tanks in the field of foreign policy are pressing for Ukraine’s admission to the Western military alliance ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Although U.S. President Joe Biden has rejected the move, at least for the near future, recent statements from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) said. Alternative security guarantees for Kiev, however, are either insufficient or not desirable or not realistic. The latter applies to a “demilitarization of Russia.” The option of a nuclear armament of Ukraine is not desirable. Inadequate, he said, are the current plans to arm Kiev extensively conventionally, for example with the planned construction of a tank factory and further arms factories in Ukraine by the Rheinmetall Group. The DGAP suggests the formation of a coalition of the willing from European states that commit themselves to active military support for Ukraine. However, this should only be a temporary solution until Ukraine formally joins NATO.
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 19:25 utc | 79
@suzan 67
thx!
(though lately I have become tired of the lot. I believe to already know what they gonna say. But may be I just need an off-time)
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 19:28 utc | 80
There’s story going around in the internet that the Ukraine will attack the Zaporozhye nuclear plant in the early hours tomorrow morning. I do hope Russia won’t allow that to happen.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 4 2023 19:28 utc | 81
RU uses drones to attack AFU boats crossing the Dnepr along the Antonovsky bridge.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1676312078028533800
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 19:31 utc | 82
Posted by: robin | Jul 4 2023 19:13 utc | 78
I am actually curious to see how the various Western populations would react to dictates from their respective governments that they must enter yet another war…I don’t know if it will get the same “positive” reception that Iraq and Afghanistan got (although I wouldn’t necessarily bet against a positive reception either, I guess)
Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 4 2023 19:39 utc | 83
@Thomas | Jul 4 2023 18:45 utc | 73
He says “I estimate that Russia has between 500 and 800 thousand troops assigned to the SMO”. That is hilarious.
Large explosion this evening in Donetsk, big fire.
Posted by: rk | Jul 4 2023 19:42 utc | 84
In Ukraine, 80 % of conscripts now come through “raids” off the street and into private houses. The war, in an organized manner is effectively over, it’s just mass murder of Ukrainians by Kiev regime now encouraged by Azov and Kraken detachments shooting in the back
Indeed, that’s why the biggest topic at the Vilnius meeting will be how to send an additional* 150,000 NATO troops into Ukraine without getting-NATO-directly-involved.
*additional because its rumoured that’s there are already 50,000 NATO troops fighting
Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 19:44 utc | 85
Is either Russia or Ukraine signatories to that treaty?
Posted by: Tim2 | Jul 4 2023 19:15 utc
I don’tseetherelevanceof this to be honest.
Cluster munitionsare being potentially supplied |by the US into the conflict is a serious provocative escalation.
No semantics.
Posted by: jpc | Jul 4 2023 19:44 utc | 86
@24 whirlx
It’s an extra 60000 troops. They have 120000 in area already and upped it to 180000 at least according to Ukrainian estimates.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 4 2023 19:48 utc | 87
rk @ 91
Large explosion this evening in Donetsk, big fire.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/53370
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 4 2023 19:50 utc | 88
Thanks to those who suggested using Youtube transcripts to read the news faster.
So, do other people agree that the AFU has been trying to exploit the situation along the Dnieper river from the Nova K. dam to the sea?
When the Nova K. blew, I said “cui bono?” Whoever tries to exploit the low waterline, they probably did it.
Does it not look like AFU is trying to take advantage and cross?
Military Summary guy thinks they will destroy the ZNPP to cover for their failure when the offensive burns out over the next week. I read that a blown ZNPP will be on the scale of fukishima, e.g. not that bad. But, it will increase western support again.
It is really weird that USA is incentivizing the Ukranians to destroy their own country. Blow a dam, get some F-16s, bomb a powerplant, maybe get Special Forces on the ground…. There seems to be a grim and cynical inevitability to the escalatory cycle.
Posted by: GoFast | Jul 4 2023 20:16 utc | 89
“They showed me a picture of you crying”: Vladimir Putin fulfilled the wish of another girl from Dagestan
The President invited a girl to the Kremlin who was upset that she could not see the head of state during his visit to Derbent
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27524/4788713/
————–
You’d meet Putin as a simple family person here. You’d have to translate the article from Russian. And, watch the video at the end of it. That’s genuine Putin.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 4 2023 20:22 utc | 90
Posted by: GoFast | Jul 4 2023 20:16 utc | 89
Not by coincidence that Danilov, Podolyak, Budanov and all the other scum of humanity own expensive mansions and luxury cars on the Mediterranean coast. The deal they made with neocons in exchange for population in Ukraine. There’s nothing romantic or mysterious about it, it’s just how it is.
The only question is how long are these guys going to be around to enjoy the “fruits of their work”.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 20:23 utc | 91
@suzan 67
thx was worth it.
But I am still not sure how RU wants to realize the Dec. 2021 goals.
More likely that WILL be freezed as problem.
An economic break-down of Europe which would be necessary would take too long.
Posted by: AG | Jul 4 2023 20:26 utc | 92
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jul 4 2023 15:55 utc | 19
Can’t wait to see this prediction fail, as I expect it will. Although I find it interesting that it references “kamikaze drones” after I just suggested earlier that a Ukraine suicide attack by diving a jet fighter into the facility is the only stupid PR move the Ukrainians haven’t done yet.
No doubt after this doesn’t happen, the Telegram channel predicting this will say, “well, the Ukrainians postponed it”…
Probably to the next “Friedman Unit”, or the next “Iran unit” that I discussed yesterday, i.e. either six months or five years.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 20:35 utc | 94
Posted by: Antoinetta III | Jul 4 2023 14:12 utc | 2
To the core question of whether such an agreement was in the works I’m pretty sure Putin himself indicated as much on his visit with African dignitaries.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 4 2023 20:37 utc | 95
I’ve noticed the Russian Defence Ministry hasn’t posted its ‘clobber list’ on its English language portal for the last couple of days, so this is via TASS: https://tass.com/politics/1642449
MOSCOW, July 4. /TASS/. Russian air defense forces shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 ground attack planes, intercepted five rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and destroyed 14 enemy drones over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Tuesday.
“Air defense capabilities shot down two Ukrainian Air Force Su-25 planes near the settlements of Georgiyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Orekhov in the Zaporozhye Region. Five rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system were intercepted over the past 24 hours,” the spokesman said.
In addition, Russian air defenses destroyed 14 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Ploshchanka and Topolevka in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Krynki and Sagy in the Kherson Region, Gladkoye, Nesteryanka and Inzhenernoye in the Zaporozhye Region, the general reported.
Russian forces destroy 30 Ukrainian troops, US-made howitzer in Kupyansk area in past day
Russian forces destroyed about 30 Ukrainian troops and a US-made artillery system in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s losses amounted to 30 Ukrainian personnel, three motor vehicles, Giatsint-S and Akatsiya self-propelled artillery guns, a D-20 howitzer and a US-manufactured M777 artillery system,” the spokesman said.
Operational/tactical and army aircraft and artillery of Russia’s western battlegroup struck the Ukrainian army’s manpower and military hardware in areas near the settlements of Berestovoye and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region in the Kupyansk direction during the last 24-hour period, the general said.
Russian forces also repulsed an enemy attack near the settlement of Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the spokesman said.
Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian ammo depot in Kharkov Region
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Kharkov Region over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the area of the settlement of Peschanoye in the Kharkov Region, an ammunition depot of the 67th territorial defense brigade was destroyed,” the spokesman said.
Russian forces destroy 135 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area over past day
Russian forces inflicted damage on Ukrainian army units in the Krasny Liman area, destroying over 135 enemy troops in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“Over 135 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks, a Gvozdika motorized artillery system, two D-30 howitzers and one D-20 howitzer were destroyed in the past 24 hours,” the spokesman said.
Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian attacks and thwarted the activity of an enemy subversive/reconnaissance group in that direction in the past 24 hours, the general reported.
Russian forces repel ten Ukrainian attacks in Donetsk area over past day
Russian forces repelled ten Ukrainian attacks in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Donetsk direction, ten enemy attacks were successfully repelled by competent and courageous actions of the defending units from the southern battlegroup,” the spokesman said.
The enemy’s losses in the Donetsk direction in the past 24 hours amounted to “290 Ukrainian personnel killed and wounded, two infantry fighting vehicles, nine motor vehicles, two pickup trucks, an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery gun, Msta-B and D-30 howitzers and a Polish-made Krab motorized artillery system, the general reported.
In addition, Russian forces obliterated a field ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 54th mechanized brigade near the settlement of Viyemka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, he said.
Russian forces eliminate 200 Ukrainian troops in south Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas
Russian forces eliminated roughly 200 Ukrainian troops in the south Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the south Donetsk direction, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems from the battlegroup East repulsed two enemy attacks in the past 24 hours near the settlement of Urozhainoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Near the settlement of Priyutnoye in the Zaporozhye Region, the activity of a Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance group was thwarted. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian forces inflicted damage by their self-sacrificing and well-coordinated actions on amassed manpower and equipment of the 106th territorial defense brigade near the settlement of Lugovskoye in the Zaporozhye Region,” the spokesman said.
In all, Russian forces destroyed as many as 200 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, four infantry fighting vehicles, four armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles, two Msta-B howitzers and one D-20 howitzer during the battles in those directions in the past 24 hours, the general reported.
Russian forces destroy Ukrainian ammo depot in Zaporozhye area over past day
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Zaporozhye area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the area of the town of Orekhov in the Zaporozhye Region, an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanized brigade was destroyed,” the spokesman said.
Russian forces destroy 50 Ukrainian troops, US-made howitzer in Kherson area
Russian forces destroyed roughly 50 Ukrainian troops and a US-made howitzer in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Kherson direction, as many as 50 Ukrainian personnel, three motor vehicles, an Msta-B howitzer and a US-manufactured M777 artillery system were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower,” the spokesman said.
Russia’s Aerospace Forces down Ukrainian Su-25 warplane, Mi-8 helicopter in DPR
Russia’s Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 ground attack plane and a Mi-8 helicopter in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Force shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 plane near the settlement of Grigorovka and a Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter near the community of Novogrodovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the spokesman said.
Russian forces strike 85 Ukrainian artillery units over past day
Russian forces struck 85 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“During the last 24-hour period, operational/tactical and army aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian groupings of forces struck 85 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 102 areas,” the spokesman said.
In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 449 Ukrainian warplanes, 241 combat helicopters, 4,887 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 surface-to-air missile systems, 10,503 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,134 multiple rocket launchers, 5,330 field artillery guns and mortars and 11,407 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.
Plenty of “large explosions” there…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 4 2023 20:41 utc | 96
@ Atlantis Dreams | Jul 4 2023 19:39 utc | 83
My observation is that European support for Ukraine, and by extent, all forms of belligerence against Russia, is quite strong. Certainly stronger than support for war in Iraq.
This is where Western narrative dominance really shines. Short of a major upending of the current situation, I doubt people would see the link between their experienced degradation of all things and the wholesale undermining waged by so called allies across the pond.
Posted by: robin | Jul 4 2023 20:44 utc | 97
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 18:30 utc | 65
Not much of a false flag if the plan is published on an open source, giving the date and the method of execution. Seems to me this is either building with raw pork or suggesting/detecting MO’s so the Ukrainians can’t use them, for fear it’s too obvious a ruse. I thought hundreds of marines were meant to be storming the plant, or was that last months plan.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 4 2023 20:45 utc | 98
Posted by: robin | Jul 4 2023 20:44 utc | 97
yeah the difference in European support for this war compared to Iraq 2 is marked.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 4 2023 20:52 utc | 99
Posted by: Milites | Jul 4 2023 20:45 utc | 98
Agreed otherwise, but Ukraine opsec is terrible. Everyone can make of these claims what they will, but it’s rarely that we get predictions on an imminent time scale. Longer predictions just result them being forgotten, which is advantageous to the original claimant in the case that it fails.
Though there seems to be little reason to doubt that a plan of that sorts exists. Lot of media resources has been invested into this plot, and the US radiation detection aircraft has been flown into the Balkans and probably Black sea recently, which would only act as verification. In this particular version there are multiple ways of delivering the radioactive waste, and the Tochka-U is supposedly the back-up plan.
Either way guess we’ll know the truth of this claim after waking up.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 20:54 utc | 100