Sorry if this is a dumb question–just trying to understand where the logic breaks down
Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 3 2023 16:39 utc | 12
A couple of things I think you are missing: the elite do not serve, so you need to subtract several thousand, maybe a hundred thousand when you include those who can pay bribes to the elite. Those who do serve need to be physically tackled and thrown into the back of a van as the only way to sign them up. So you have to reserve significant numbers for the goon squad. And speaking of goons, units are not moving forward unless they know there is someone behind them ready to shoot them for retreating, so some of the extreme leftist battalions must be kept at a distance.
Thus the shortage of raw meat for the grinder.

Posted by: JT | Jul 3 2023 22:10 utc | 104

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 19:31 utc | 69
Please do not forget that while pludering Europe for six years and making billions with German state money, German industrialists were sending most of their earnings to NYSE through four channels that never stopped from day one to VE-day (especially after 1943 when victory became unreachable):
– The Vatican,
– Franco’s Spain,
– Salazar’s Portugal,
– Switzerland!
All four got plenty for that … and it lasted quite a while, thanks to good boy Adolph whoknew how to prolong pleasure.
German money was hugely invested into the US war effort, meaning they financed themselves the bombing of “their” cities and factories back home in Germany – no problemo Marge!
Marshall plan became only the return of German cash in Heimat.
Thank to that big money influx, Nazi cartels quickly got a new life (example IG-Farben gave 3 succesful offsprings: Bayer, BASF and Hoechst – the later merged with the French Rhône-Poulenc to spawn Aventis seated in Strassburgh). Plenty of French firms kept on the profitable collaboration started during the “darkest hours” of the forties … Receiving donations of German patents to profit from after the war. All this affluent and influent people supporting the birth of the EC then EU (previousy know as Europaisches Wirtschaft Gemeinschaft and founded by Wather Funk Reichsminister in 1942 – google it you’ll be surprised) for good reasons.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jul 3 2023 22:15 utc | 106

Situation at the Vremensky outpost:
The enemy does not stop trying to attack the line of Priyutnoye and Staromayorskoe in small groups.
Our units are standing confident, methodically and daily destroying the enemy.
Early this morning, assault groups of the 65th AFU Mechanic Brigade were attacking our positions to the north of Rabotino.
The fighting is mainly taking place in the wooded areas. The enemy managed to penetrate a couple of hundred metres into our defence. At the cost of more than 20 dead and left wounded in the fields.
To the east of the same locality, our forces managed to repel the Ukrainian units, moreover, the Russian Armed Forces counterattacked and knocked the enemy out of the previously occupied positions in the wooded area.
#source (https://t.me/readovkanews/61870)
@Slavyangrad

If you believe this, then AFU troops got knocked out of the trenches they captured in front of Robotino. And they are using small group tactics, but the small groups apparently get methodically destroyed (ATGM is especially useful).

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 3 2023 22:17 utc | 108

80% of Ukrainian troops are to be taken right off the street – Lviv military commissar
According to him, the Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices will have to conduct “raids”, otherwise the mobilization plan will be in jeopardy.
Just 20% of their recruitment comes from citizens responding to letters and appearing at enlistment offices.
“>https://twitter.com/mazzenilsson/status/1675995370755588096

80 % of new AFU troops are now obtained through means of raids on the streets and private houses.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 3 2023 22:34 utc | 110

@Lex | Jul 3 2023 15:46 utc | 3
One can’t ignore economics in war. Russia financed the development of missle systems, including their hypersonic ones, early on. Their development was very expensive and used many scientists along with engineers and others. Those weapons have put Russia significantly ahead of NATO in many ways.
Development of advanced military drone technologies mostly uses engineers and technicians. Because they can be tested much more quickly and more easily than rockets, improvements and changes in production are far less expensive. Consider the cost and effort to make a minor modification to a hypersonic missile compared to a modification of a drone.
Russia knew what it would target with the missiles and guided bombs, but has had to continually evolved the drones as it learns more about the enemy and as enemy technology and tactics change. It was stated on MoA that Russia was only able to manufacture two of one type of its hypersonic missiles a month. It did well to have started producing them early. (They are probably producing more now.) Assembly lines for new drone versions can be modified quickly.
It seems to me that Russia priotized development of drones correctly

Posted by: barstool | Jul 3 2023 22:45 utc | 112

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 3 2023 18:17 utc | 45
«The US imperialists can be divided into two factions. One wants to do whatever it takes to defeat Russia, even if it means direct involvement and WW3. The ‘realist’ camp wants to find an exit strategy so the US can focus on containing China. That’s what constitutes realpolitik among the neocons.»
My impression is that there is no “do whatever it takes to defeat Russia” and no “find an exit strategy” faction, but:
* All factions agree that the number one target is the PRC, and RF is not that important except as the largest buffer state that the PRC has.
* All factions agree that it would be very nice if there were a chain of CIA/DOD biolabs and bases on the northern and western chinese borders to spread bioagents and fund, train, and arm many “freedom fighters” inside the PRC to surround, isolate and destabilise it into breaking up.
* But there is a difference:
** One faction thinks that a series of “prometheian” wars on the RF borders and some insurgencies inside it and Belarus and Kazakhstan can result in 5-10-15 years in regime-change in Moscow, so there is no need to negotiate with the RF elites, Once Navalny is appointed president he will “invite” all those bases “spontaneously”.
** Another faction thinks that “baiting the bear” hoping for regime change in Moscow would be too slow and risky, and it would be be better to bribe, instead of forcing, the RF elites into giving up the “friendship without limits” with the PRC and become USA vassals. But they lost the argument and now it is too late to bribe the RF elites.

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 3 2023 22:47 utc | 114

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 3 2023 22:47 utc | 121
nope the neocons are a faction, and I’ve seen no evidence whatever that the neocons prioritize China over Russia.
but there is some evidence that some faction wants to pivot to China as the Ukraine “counteroffensive” falls apart.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-recommends-americans-reconsider-traveling-072837449.html

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 3 2023 22:52 utc | 116

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 3 2023 22:35 utc | 118
«Once the Kiev regime is overthrown, the few remaining Ukrainian forces will surrender»
They will retreat into NATO and be turned into “freedom fighters”.
Like in WW2, except that this time NATO bases are right on the ukrainian borders, instead of being separated from those borders by 1,000km of soviet allies.
«then the final disarming of Ukraine can occur, prior to the final Russian occupation, which will then be followed by real “de-Nazification” by Russian GRU/SVR/FSB intelligence services backed by the military.»
The USSR tried that in 1945-1954, and the fascist militias were resurrected (also thanks to the OUN-A/B diaspora) as soon as the USSR collapsed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/history/comments/v5qw7v/what_are_some_unknownforgottenobscure_modern_post/ibc30no/
“Ukrainian law code states war pensions will be paid to veterans who were wounded fighting between 1941 and 1954. Ukrainian rebellions that started during world war 2 were not stopped until about 1954.”
Those were veterans of UPA, OUN-A, OUN-B, Galician SS, who continued the guerrilla war against the USSR until around 1954, and some beyond.

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 3 2023 23:07 utc | 118

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 3 2023 18:00 utc | 41
“that doesn’t mean the “war” will be over any time soon, it will just go on as more sporadic and incoherent.”
No. The Ukrainians loss rate might be slowed if their attacks are more desultory rather than full-on rushes, but they’re going to run out of men and equipment. Their current loss rate is unsustainable. If my calculations are anywhere near correct, they have to run out of enough men to conduct any kind of significant operation within 3-6 months.
This is what matters: having enough men and equipment to conduct a significant operation, where the definition of that is the ability to actually threaten significant losses on the part of the Russian forces. To do that, you need artillery, armor, AD, and brigade size units and preferably good iSR. Lose any of that, especially artillery and armor, and you are unable to do anything but die without causing the Russians to die or lose equipment.
A mass of infantry is not a threat to anyone with artillery and armor and ISR. It just raises the rate of loss of manpower. we know that the rate of re-supply of artillery and armor, and ammunition for same, supplied by NATO is less than consumption. The report mentioned earlier by Shoigu is that most of the vehicles supplied by NATO over months were destroyed in three weeks.
“Any time soon” is three to six months, tops, for Ukrainians at least.
Those who suggest that NATO can then send in enough troops to make up for Ukrainian manpower losses forget that NATO can NOT send in the EQUIPMENT needed to support those forces, namely the artillery, armor and ammunition for same, let alone the AD, air power, etc. So the fact that NATO sends in, say, 150,000 Poles and other trash merely continues and increases the rate of loss of manpower.
Further, the fact that these are NATO-trained personnel doesn’t help the conduct of the war. They will continue making the same mistakes the Ukrainians are. As Martyanov says, NATO doctrine does not know how to fight this kind of war. This is why the Ukrainians keep making the same mistakes over and over – because their NATO training is forcing them to. NATO troops will fare no better. As Martyanov says, US troops would fare no better.
NATO has been training for 20-30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union to stomp on untrained Third-World militaries with no air power, artillery or armor. They simply have forgotten whatever doctrine they had in the Cold War to fight against Soviet Union armies, and they certainly have not been training for that for decades. Ritter has made this point as well, based on his remembrance of his training against Russian OPFOR forces in the 1980’s.
They would have to dust off all the old training manuals and films (16mm FILM!) and then spend the next five years retraining every NATO army in Europe!
Meanwhile, the Russians took their old manuals, updated them for new technology, and have been training to defeat NATO and the US for the last 20 years or whenever Gerasimov and Shoigu took command.
Bottom line: the Ukrianians have got nothing left but manpower which is dying too fast. If NATO sends in NATO troops without the necessary hardware, they will die equally fast. The delay in ending the war will not be much longer than if they aren’t sent.
Remember, Russia has 150-300,000 RESERVE manpower and hardware they can bring to bear and are bringing to bear over time. As Martyanov says, this is still an SMO – it’s not war. If NATO sends in 150,000 more forces, Russia can switch to real war.
I stick to my estimate: the Ukrainian and/or NATO forces collapse at the end of 3-6 months. Say, by New Year’s Eve, the Ukrainians will no longer be able to 1) mount any significant operation, and 2) Russia will be able to move in any direction at will without significant casualties.
Beyond that, it may take some weeks or months to finish shortening the lines, consolidating forces, and rolling across Ukraine to take Kiev. As I said before, all this readjustment will amount to a new phase of the war and accomplishing that may take some time given the size of the Russian forces which will likely be around 750,000 men if not a million.
Keep in mind that (I presume) Russia is continuing getting new recruits and continuing doing its usual conscription drives twice a year. Add in training time, and pursuant to the goal Shoigu announced of having a 1.5 million man army, and there could be a million Russian troops in Ukraine in another six months, organized in divisions, army corps and armies. NATO can’t begin to have any significant force put together in that time.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 3 2023 23:21 utc | 120

Posted by: young | Jul 3 2023 21:36 utc | 100
Nope. All this “nuclear plant” crap is a diversion from the failed offensive combined with propaganda to get NATO to provide more support to Ukraine.
Nothing more. There will be no “nuclear incident.”
As the Rivne plant, IIRC there was a piece in the last thread that said 1) they were planning to blow it up, and 2) it was their new ISR HQ.
I said, “What’s wrong with this picture?” Of course, no one answered.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 3 2023 23:33 utc | 122

Posted by: Milites | Jul 3 2023 21:13 utc | 93 “4 minute kill chain”
Pretty impressive, got a link to something that backs that up?
What makes me wonder, if the Patriot is beyond artillery range, what is close enough and numerous enough that it can be at the target coordinates in 4 minutes from target detection? It’s certainly not a cruise missile launched from over the Caspian Sea.
The Patriot launcher is 40 miles from the front line, (which doesn’t take 50 minutes to take down, but more than 4 minutes). How far back behind Russians is a weapon system that can hit the launch site? 10 miles? So the weapons system needs a range of 50 miles?
The radar which is much further back, using radio links to communicate to the launchers, and there is also this: https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-fake-radars-to-confuse-the-sensors-of-russian-fighter-jets/ to confuse the Russians which is the real radar. “imitating air-defense and anti-aircraft artillery radar systems”

Posted by: Tim2 | Jul 3 2023 23:42 utc | 124

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 3 2023 23:07 utc | 130
“They will retreat into NATO and be turned into “freedom fighters”. Like in WW2, except that this time NATO bases are right on the ukrainian borders, instead of being separated from those borders by 1,000km of soviet allies.”
And exactly how are these “freedom fighters” going to achieve anything against a Russian Military District in western Ukraine? As I’ve said over and over before here…
“The USSR tried that in 1945-1954, and the fascist militias were resurrected (also thanks to the OUN-A/B diaspora) as soon as the USSR collapsed.”
I covered all of that, too, in a previous thread. The Soviet Union destroyed those militias (although it took ten years before the last one quit.) Russians: 20,000 soldiers lost. Ukrainians: 200,000 lost.
People keep bringing up this stupid “insurgency” idea. The only reason the 1945-54 insurgency worked at all was because it was led by OUN guerrillas who had experience fighting in WWII. The current crop of Ukrainian military left over will be conscripts with next to zero training and experience. They will up against the Russian military and intelligence with experience in Syria and Chechnya at counter-insurgency, as well as Wagner and in particular the Chechens who are experts in counter-insurgency.
Feel free to try again in the modern age.
Not to mention that no “insurgency” is going to override Russia’s fundamental security concerns, just as Chechnya and Syria didn’t.
But in every thread I have to bring up these facts because some individual (read: concern troll) thinks he’s discovered a huge weakness in the Russian plans.
Hope blooms eternal for the concern troll.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 3 2023 23:50 utc | 126

Posted by: Tim2 | Jul 3 2023 23:51 utc | 145
what wargames. and why do you think the Patriots work? the originals were hyped to do things they never could perform in combat. why do you think the latest iteration works any better?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 3 2023 23:59 utc | 128

” …but why shouldn’t the US move on? Its Mission Accomplished-Nordstream gone (Europeans now buying expensive US LNG), relations with Russia and the EU have been severed, all the old arms have been sent to the Ukraine (sold more than given) so the US and Europe have to re-up with new, expensive US arms”.
Posted by: canuck | Jul 3 2023 16:18 utc | 10
Ha, but that’s all only a small part of The Mission.
Saving face has yet to be “won”
Regime change has yet to be won.
Ukraine has yet to be NATO-ised.
And if you believe Lyndsay Graham, Russia has still to be “destroyed”.
America never “moves on”. It is always tampering, even after its toy troops have come and gone.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 4 2023 0:12 utc | 130

@the pessimist | Jul 3 2023 17:01 utc | 19
As long as Ukraine keeps poking it’s head up through the hole, Russia will continue to play Whac-A-Mole. They won’t chase through the hole until the Mole stops attacking. Russia has significantly lower losses while sitting behind the defensive lines. Once Ukraine has beat themselves to death against Russia’s defenses and stops attacking them, Russia will begin their large-scale offensive.

Posted by: barstool | Jul 4 2023 0:21 utc | 132

Not everything is rosy on the front. Here’s a sloppy set of joes who got droned whilst chatting.
Yesterday news was a boat of Russian soldiers out to retrieve the bodies of their dead and got surrounded by a much larger goup of Ukies and wiped out.
Never heard of scouting ahead with small drones first?
https://i.imgur.com/PbxkPWg.jpg

Posted by: Surferket | Jul 4 2023 0:26 utc | 134

When observing the patriot volley around Kiev, I noted a fully intact missile plunged into the Dneiper. This had the hallmarks of being electronically overcome. I believe the Russians have solved their patriot problem.

Posted by: TJC | Jul 4 2023 0:31 utc | 136

Passerby @ 61, Richard Whitney @ 154:
Putin did study law as an undergraduate student in St Petersburg and one of his university teachers was Anatoly Sobchak who taught business law back in the early 1970s. When Sobchak later ran for Mayor of St Petersburg in the early 1990s and won, he hired Putin in his administration. This is where Putin would have been able to hone his talent and skill as a legalistic administrator.
Having a long, lo-o-ong term point of view may have been a consequence of his parents’ attempts to raise children to adulthood. Putin’s two elder brothers died in the 1930s and then in the early 1940s (during the Leningrad siege) respectively in their infancy before Putin himself was born (in 1952). Just imagine, had either of his older brothers survived, Putin might never have been born and recent world history would have been very different!

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 4 2023 0:44 utc | 138

Posted by: barstool | Jul 4 2023 0:21 utc | 152

..Once Ukraine has beat themselves to death against Russia’s defenses and stops attacking them, Russia will begin their large-scale offensive. ..

Hope so they (RF) could do so ..
But Your wish in God’s ear, RF still have some MIL-Support troubles, even having lost the “Wagners” PMC .. where is the Tschechenien forces no “operating” – as to substitute that missing forces? ..
Nothing heard about, whether by Mr.Shoigu nor by Chief-of-RF himself.
So let’s wait what any RF-“Counter”-offensives will gain some more “1000 sqm gains”.
Plus: Do not forget the current 10:1 soldiers deths (UKR/RF side) and the Leo’s losses and the snipers that already focusing on Mr. Scholz and German’s “First Lady” (360 degree, I do not hear anything further more what my people have me elected for!
What’s that all about summond still today?
Pls. listen once more, the MIL-Summary of 2023-07-03 – and hopefully that of the next following days:
https://rumble.com/c/c-1613003

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 4 2023 0:51 utc | 140

With friends like the current Poland government…

Germany and Poland cannot agree on who will handle the maintenance of Leopard tanks transferred to the AFU, Der Spiegel reports.
A factory for the repair of military equipment in Poland was supposed to open a month ago, but the countries have not come to a common denominator on the issue of estimating the cost of work, sources say Der Spiegel.
“For example, the Polish PGZ wants to charge more than €100,000 for the so-called “initial diagnostics” of tanks. In Germany, they usually pay only about €12,000 for this. In addition, PGZ does not want to assume any guarantees for repairs,” the article says.

Profiteering? :))
If Europe ever gets to wake up and carefully reassess their debacle, there will be some strained relations. Just like the strained relations of a century past. It is time for the europeans to step off the treadmill.
source: https://t.me/ukr_leaks_eng/3875

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 4 2023 1:01 utc | 142

“Place your bets”
“The die is cast”
“Round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows”
When pundits talk of the need to do more for Ukraine, and they write of Ukraine’s posted laundry list of needs, do any of them go into at length that the battle has already been joined?
“You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish you had at a later time.”
A superciliously dumbed down commentary by SoD Donald Rumsfeld, and dismissive of critics because with it all he offered was a truism. But given the copious amounts of hopium that Ukraine’s cheerleaders in the MSM seem to be smoking and snorting, such a truism might be worth revisiting.
Ukraine has taken everything it has that isn’t locked down in a defensive position, the Army it has, and put it up against Russia’s entrenchments on the line of contact. Russia has either a precise or rough idea of where every Ukrainian unit, and every Ukrainian heavy piece of equipment is located, just like Ukraine, thanks to Uncle Sam, knows where everything Russia has is located, more or less.
Now it’s down to who can destroy who. And this isn’t like a RTS (real time strategy) video game where you can decide you want to pull your forces back to cover. The more Russian missiles and drones that come from Russian factories and to to the front lines, the more Ukraine’s army is going to get worn down, unless Ukraine can destroy the Russians who are launching them.
Ukraine can retreat, though not before the NATO summit of course, but that would involve leaving forces in place to cover that retreat. And if done properly such a retreat would require a vast mobile air defense to protect the vehicles that would be exposed while traveling in the open. Those covering the retreat would need to be highly trained and motivated so they weren’t routed by the then vastly greater number of infantry facing them across the line of contact.
A poorly executed retreat could cost Ukraine a lot of its armor and artillery, and most of the troops covering it, while being a public relations disaster for the regime in Kiev. History has examples of how humiliating retreats caused governments to get replaced.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 1:10 utc | 144

Posted by: Konami |4
I believe we are seeing the end of the EU as a meaningful institution. (It may creep onwards in a formal state of existence for longer.) Do you agree?
According to a Reuters news article from a couple of months ago, the subsidies bill for domestic and industrial energy cost inflation alone cost the EU & UK €800 Billion.
Any energy price-shocks, such as a sudden spike in oil prices, will drive what’s left of the Euro into a flat spin that can’t be pulled out of. France is the litmus test of what we could expect as the patience of civil populations, at rapidly declining living standards, snaps.

Posted by: Rattus | Jul 4 2023 1:22 utc | 146

Posted by: canuck | Jul 3 2023 16:18 utc | 10
Why doesn’t the US just move on? I agree with the rationale proposed by several on this site in the past:
If this Ukraine operation is ended, American allies can relax and trade with anyone. Then dedollarization will rapidly escalate and the US economy will tank.
If this is true, then for the US,the Ukraine War is not about winning or losing, but just hanging in there.

Posted by: HelenB | Jul 4 2023 1:36 utc | 148

@whirlX @17
Just about a month ago, Raytheon announced it would supply Ukraine with another 5 Patriot systems by the end of 2024. I haven’t seen any news since then, and even that item was mostly comical lying, like this:
“The production rate should scale up to 12 systems a year, as their effectiveness in Ukraine exceeds expectations…The Ukrainian military reportedly managed to improve the systems, allowing them to track and destroy hypersonic missiles twice as fast as they were designed for.”
Yes, you read that right and were not hallucinating – the Ukrainians, tweaking a system they do not even operate themselves, managed in a matter of weeks to double its capability as developed by its designers.
https://news.yahoo.com/wsj-patriot-manufacturer-promises-more-112028218.html
Quick! Somebody put the Ukrainians in charge of aging Scotch! Single malts will mature in only a week.

Posted by: Mark | Jul 4 2023 1:47 utc | 150

“…A bullet to the head in the field should be their fate.” Ghost of Zanon@161
Why not a special prison for the ‘worst of the worse”-illegal combatants?
I’m sure that the Cuban government would be happy to provide the land for one- provided, of coourse, that they could inspect it to ensure that decent legal standards were maintained and no prisoner was ill treated.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 4 2023 1:54 utc | 152

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 1:10 utc | 167

.. A poorly executed retreat could cost Ukraine a lot of its armor and artillery, and most of the troops covering it, while being a public relations disaster for the regime in Kiev. History has examples of how humiliating retreats caused governments to get replaced. ..

So once more I hope so, as You’ve suggested the final future how to get on on that based
current “facts” today, .. I cannot see that way of a final result on stopping that “SMO” anyhow by either side (the US/UK ill-minded vs. RF and its friends, ie. the new BRICS and even China’s forces arising members!
What’s showing any new movements today? Nothing else – rather than shelling will continue, unless some of the war crime “monster guys/female Greta’S v.d.Liars etc. would stop their PR-Meetings, .. would have been killed by any snipers in their offices or being hit on their way to another “old” colonial-countries (ie. to S-Africa, Mali, Algeria, etc.)
But pls. do not await another ‘answers’ of that people as in France Paris, Marselle, Lion etc. There is a fire rising beside the MSM ‘neutral’ public reporting ..
Same as for the NAZI-Kiew regime propaganda against ALL Russians !

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 4 2023 1:56 utc | 154

There is no honor among thieves….
Der Spiegle reports…. Per Slavyangrad telegram channel…
https://t.me/two_majors/9149
Berlin and Warsaw cannot agree on the maintenance of Leopard tanks transferred to Ukraine.
A repair plant in Poland was supposed to open a month ago, but negotiations between the countries are still ongoing, writes Der Spiegel.
The contract between the Polish defense concern Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) and the German companies Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall has not been concluded, although several tanks have already been delivered to the country for repairs.
One of the reasons for the disputes is the difference in estimating the cost of work: PGZ wants to charge more than €100,000 for the so-called initial diagnostics, while in Germany they are used to paying about €12,000 for this. In addition, the Polish concern does not want to take on guarantees for repairs .
“>https://t.me/CyberspecNews/34900
Meanwhile……
The broken tanks lie asunder…. somewhere…. in Poland….
You can’t make this stuff up!
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 4 2023 2:02 utc | 156

@spare_truth | Jul 4 2023 0:51 utc | 162
Russia won’t need significant mercenary forces again until Ukraine stops destroying themselves by going against the fortified Russian defensive positions. The mercenaries are probably getting much needed rest and recreation, (intoxication and intercourse,) on a warm beach or back home with their families. Most will be restless and ready to return when Russia calls. They will have blown what money they had already earned.

Posted by: barstool | Jul 4 2023 2:08 utc | 158

Richard Steven Hack @ 138
Nope. All this “nuclear plant” crap is a diversion from the failed offensive combined with propaganda to get NATO to provide more support to Ukraine.
Nothing more. There will be no “nuclear incident.”
RESPONSE: I hope you are correct.
Meanwhile, the US Senate via Linsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal set up the narrative last week for a radiation release event within Ukraine. Also, the radiation detection devices have been set up in Ukraine by the West.
It looks to me that the West has prepared for a false flag radiological event. It may not be very far away.

Posted by: young | Jul 4 2023 2:28 utc | 160

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 4 2023 2:26 utc | 187

Sorry, but neither side sees the war as senseless. The Outlaw US Empire craves the destruction of Russia and Russia naturally wants to preserve itself and expand its security boundaries. So, it is you who are senseless.

The Outlaw US Empire also seeks to remain as the Outlaw US Empire. As it loses, it ceases to be an Empire.

Posted by: PDidds | Jul 4 2023 2:43 utc | 162

Arch,
Indeed, the more time Chris Hedges spent inside Yugoskavia the less War Mongering his articles became. At some point Hedges started revealing the full truth. It was very much a road to Damascus conversion.
Until that point, Hedges was a big shot highly paid journalist.
since he got fired, Hefges hasn’t been able to really get any steady journalist gig
So I cut Hedges a lot of slack – unlike other War Mongering Journalists who continue to promote killings and senseless slaughter.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 2:49 utc | 164

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 4 2023 1:32 utc | 171
“If there is truth in this idea, then we should be able to see sudden unexpected advances by Russia even if they don’t wish to follow it up yet.
Maybe, maybe not. It would have to be for something Russia sees as either 1) strategically important, or 2) significantly advancing the destruction of large numbers of Ukrainian troops. Just grabbing more territory wouldn’t necessarily motivate any advances. There could well be local Ukrainian collapses, however, as you say, which might occur. We’ll see.
“Also, I wonder about rumors that Ukraine may be abandoning certain areas (Sumy,Kharkov?).”
Wouldn’t be surprised if they were. At some point they’re going to have to start denuding some areas of forces to reinforce or even enable operations elsewhere. As I say, eventually the troops inside the larger cities will have to come out and fight or be bypassed, and if they do, they’ll be annihilated as well.
“Can they hang on to ‘punisher’ troops or do they lose them in offensives along with conscripts?”
I would expect the punisher troops to hang back somewhat, unless they’re so motivated as to join the offensive. OTOH, if they hang back too far, they’re not that useful at preventing the forward offensive troops from retreating, unless the forward troops have been told the punishers will call in artillery on their own positions. Not sure how effective that would be, given the Russian artillery is already the bigger threat.
At some point, the punishers will be forced to join the forward units because that’s all Ukraine will have left.
Then, of curse, the actual NATO troops will also be used to stiffen and command the Ukraine forces – until they lose their nerve, too, under the Russian artillery, just like the mercenaries so far have bugged out when it got too hot.
It will all be for nought as the military balance simply can’t be adjusted in Ukraine’s favor, no matter what is tried, equipment-, manpower- or motivational-wise.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 3:04 utc | 166

Posted by: young | Jul 4 2023 2:28 utc | 188
Or as I said, it’s a load of crap intended to further the propaganda. In which case, nothing which is reported on is anything more than bullcrap.
Wait until we see a radiation release before speculating. As I said, we’ve seen threats of a radioactive false flag since before the war even started, and we’ve yet to see a real radiation release anywhere.
I’m not usually one to argue that “because it hasn’t happened yet, it isn’t going to happen” = particularly with regard to the Iran war, because that’s what everyone argues against me – but in this case, given that no one has come up with a way for Ukraine to successfully attack the ZPP, and given that blowing up another one of Ukraine’s NPPs is going to be hard to realistically blame on Russia, I really doubt anything is going to happen.
So the next obvious conclusion, given that everything Ukraine has done so far has been PR stunts with next to no real effects from them, including the dam breakage, is that this is just more of the same. So far the only effect has been to increase the propaganda against Russia. If there is no actual radiation release within the next few weeks, this will establish that’s all it was, just like every other false flag claim for the last 18 months.
If they wanted to blow up their own reactors or ZPP, they really would have done it already. It’s not like they haven’t been claiming this for the last 18 months.
So I’m forced to call bullshit on the likelihood (unlike an Iran war.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 3:18 utc | 168

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 2:52 utc | 195
I’m considering the proposition that since the West has an odd combination of a heightened sense of self importance, and a sense of immense power that is 90% illusionary but 10% all too real (ask any small nation, or “out of line” individual like Assange who’s felt their boot on their throat), they’ll eventually announce to fanfare that they’ve arrived at a solution to the war in Ukraine, and it will be predicated on Russia allowing Ukraine to peacefully withdraw its forces, and that will be said so as to facilitate a stalemate situation like the one between North and South Korea.
So the AFU would be said to be currently occupying the future DMZ, but they will graciously withdraw … in exchange for a lot of aid, and a lot of concessions.
I’d expect Russia, in this hypothetical, to feign a real interest, and politely listen intently. Because they’d know that the subtext was that they’d won, and so they wouldn’t want that message to get lost by them blowing up, and angrily dismissing any communications on this proposition floated their way.
“And the band played on”
Meanwhile they’d continue their SMO, and continue preparations for building on its success. They’d know that the West would continue to float solutions to the war, with each successive one offering them better terms. The West will know the war is lost, but they can’t openly concede that, nor can they be seen as doing nothing. So they’ll keep the government and military of Ukraine on life support, and keep insisting that Russia accept what it’s proposing.
They could even be able to claim consistency with their offer, even as Russia continues to make advances and further destroy the AFU, simply by the ongoing repeating of the key demand that “Russia freezes its forces along their current lines”. That might not ever become outdated, even as Kiev itself finds itself panicking as Russian forces drew closer.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 3:47 utc | 170

Kiev wants Unilever, the multinational food company, to be placed on Sanctions list and boycotted for selling ice cream etc.,to Russians.
https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/boycott/1008/
Reading Kiev‘s statement, it appears Kiev wants to shakedown Unilever and sanction it’s (Jewish) CEO. Kiev seems really bent out of shape that Unilever‘s business inside Russia ( 3 factories ) is thriving.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 4 2023 3:59 utc | 172

Imo an insurgency would have a much harder time among a populace that could realistically aspire to a middle class way of life than it could among a populace that had no history of that, or couldn’t expect to regain that way of life.
When someone just spent all their money to furnish an apartment or stock the shelves of their store, they don’t want firefights outside, or bombs going off. I see it as no coincidence that Russia immediately starts rebuilding areas they consider part of their territory, and even cutting checks to retirees. Insurgents are less welcome among people successfully reclaiming their way of life.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 4:01 utc | 174

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 4:01 utc | 205
Agreed.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 4:27 utc | 176

All seem here to know it, as commented once above:
“It makes perfect sense that the Western elite would initiate the actions they have.
It is an act of desperation, but a logical one.”
But “the actions they have” – as any of their options may now being “re-opened” as a realistic “solution” today, performed by a lot of remaining dangerous crazy US/UK-Deep States guys/women like Nuland, Blinken, Hunter B., Hillary, Obama etc., as in the latest RAND-Paper suggestions proclaimed, .. won’t be realized in any successful manner, yet.
That’s for sure.
Be careful of/off yours snipers! Be careful what you’ll further declaring on CNN, CNBC, BBC, DW, etc.
Go abroad – out of USA/Canada/EU !

Posted by: spare_truth | Jul 4 2023 4:36 utc | 178

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 4 2023 4:06 utc | 206
“The cost benefit analysis? As follows: “We can throw away 6.5 billion lives, even of our own kind in a world war and still be left with our palaces, our hoards of gold, or private islands far from the conflict and even if only half a billion humans remain when the din has died down, we will emerge as the new rulers of the world” ”
That’s the part that is not rational. It can’t work. They’ll die long before any result of that kind happens – or after even if it does. That logic is on the level of a comic book supervillain who wants to destroy the world, assuming that he’ll survive. And I usually take comic book supervillains seriously!
There are a lot of other things wrong with their conception of how to be successful vis-a-vis the rest of the species, which I can’t go into here, but hope to refer to from time to time on my Substack. My Substack is called “The Five Essentials” precisely because it’s intended to discuss what is required to be successful against the failure of the rest of the human race.
It’s not logical to base a course of action on concepts that are fundamentally illogical. Or at least that’s what Spock would say, as would I. It’s pretty much my fundamental complaint against the human species – they’re incapable of being fully logical due to the evolution of the human brain. This needs to be, and can be, fundamentally altered resulting in a “posthuman” entity which can be fully factually correct and fully logical.
Again, the neocons’ ideological concepts are the result of people who basically have zero conception of how the world actually works piled on top of an inability to think logically due to emotional conditions of megalomania, paranoid levels of fear and, as you say, bumbling incompetence.
Not worth discussing these clowns’ irrational nonsense. Just shoot them and move on.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 4:42 utc | 180

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 4 2023 4:30 utc | 208
Who gets elected as President is irrelevant. He does what the donors want. And if the neocons are in Washington, it’s because the donors want them there.
Besides which, what makes you think the donors understand the military balance? “Where did they get that education?” is probably what Martyanov would ask. They’re just as dumb as the neocons which is why the neocons are there.
Not to mention that this notion that the “Masters of the Universe” – as Pepe Escobar calls them – are 1) united in their approaches – Escobar does not believe they are, and 2) that they actually ARE “Masters of the Universe” has zero evidence behind it.
The fact that Russia and China are rising against the US can only mean one of two things: 1) Russian and China are working for the “Masters of the Universe” – as some people here allege, probably wrongly, or 2) they aren’t “Masters of the Universe”, or are only such in the US and not elsewhere – which means they don’t control outcomes, maybe not even in the US.
I don’t put much stock in “Masters of the Universe” actually controlling anything. As I said in an earlier thread, The world isn’t messed up because some specific people control the world. It’s that a lot of people are TRYING to control the world. The same applies to the United States and its elections.
And the people trying are all bumbling illogical ignoramuses who happen to have a lot of money because they took advantage of the stupidity of everyone else. They may be clever manipulators, but they don’t really understand anything except perhaps human psychology.
I’d say that last paragraph pretty much sums up the human condition just as well as Woody Allen’s “Nothing works and nobody cares” line.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 4:55 utc | 182

Arch Bungle | Jul 4 2023 4:06 utc | 206 and all barflies–
Why did the USA go through the trouble of negotiating the UN Charter, ratifying it, and then when it came into force decided to break it and the Constitution? How accurate was Wallace’s description of American Fascists in 1944? How long did they exist prior to then? How did Wilson and his Republican heirs’ policies contribute to WW2 and its aftermath? How much bearing does all that have on today’s situation including Ukraine?
Yes, that’s a lot of dots to connect, but they do. And then there’s the big question: How did the previous decades worth of history contribute going all the way back to the Colonial Era? Yes, they do. What are the clues to look for? Policy continuity which is connected to a particular world view. It’s there, sometimes very subtle and sometimes very strong. Unfortunately, the evidence isn’t found in one tome; it resides in many, often in archives and personal papers that only get read by specialists and are edited into what become rare publications. Along with the Deep State there’s Deep History. Hudson’s writings are an example of that genre. There’s a Deep History to what’s ongoing in Ukraine too. Dealing with the conflict Medvedev described in his essay requires knowing much of that Deep History. The main impediment to solving the issue and more requires something almost all Western politicos lack, and that’s the knowledge that comes from knowing most of the Confrontation’s Deep History. So as Medvedev predicts, it might last for decades as the West will continue to be incapable of negotiating a fitting end.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 4 2023 5:27 utc | 184

And as I’ve said before, just because he’s Russian doesn’t make him correct. Either provide evidence or not.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 6:31 utc | 188
——————————-
He wasn’t writing to the US Americans, but for the Russians, who knows the score. The Russians don’t have to prove anything to the Americans, or the unfriendlies! Have you been to Russia, by the way? Or speak Russian? Have you noticed that you are against your own country?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 4 2023 6:39 utc | 186

Posted by: Monos | Jul 3 2023 17:27 utc | 31

Any guesses on which will occur first and end the war?

The money and material from the West to Ukraine. For the West the Russo-Ukrainian war is not existential. The West is the least-motivated of the parties in this war.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 4 2023 6:48 utc | 188

@karlof1 | Jul 4 2023 5:27 utc | 185
Funny thing about twitter warrior Medvedev. He disappeared on 24, I think, and appeared back days later. No news on tass, not seen in any photo during those days, complete silence. Only his secretary published a message that Norway’s best friend did not actually leave, but didn’t explain why he’s not part of public meetings like everyone else (tass.com/russia/1637753)
Considering last night’s attacks near Moscow and in other places, I can’t wait to read his next complaining tweet.

Posted by: rk | Jul 4 2023 7:09 utc | 190

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 4 2023 5:27 utc | 194

Why did the USA go through the trouble of negotiating the UN Charter, ratifying it,

Because the UN Charter was ‘negotiated’ with the understanding that the US was now the de-facto leader of the free world and as the “exceptional nation” it was beyond the charter. In fact, the ‘Charter’ that was negotiated was nothing more than the terms of surrender under which the RoW, wrecked by the consequences of WW2, would accede to American primacy (to one degree or another).

and then when it came into force decided to break it and the Constitution?

Charters and Constitutions only apply to those who do not have a monopoly on force.
No entity with a monopoly on power accedes to the power of Charter or Constitution.
In any case,it revealed the intent behind the US’ conception of the UN: A cage for the RotW.

How accurate was Wallace’s description of American Fascists in 1944? How long did they exist prior to then? How did Wilson and his Republican heirs’ >policies contribute to WW2 and its aftermath? How much bearing does all that have on today’s situation including Ukraine?
Yes, that’s a lot of dots to connect, but they do. And then there’s the big question:

For us natives of the global south and former colonials these dots are essentially outside of our experience and practically inaccessible.
However, there are other dots that connect for those with their eyes opened, particularly in retrospect. The history of colonial conquests under various pretexts (in the name of god, in the name of morality, in the name of lebensraum and modernity, in the name of freedom, in the name of combating terror, in the name of saving humankind from an as yet unnamed apocalypse …), in different dimensions (the military, religious, the moral, intellectual, cultural, economic, information, the scientific …) … all these have now become transparent.

How did the previous decades worth of history contribute going all the way back to the Colonial Era? Yes, they do. What are the clues to look for? >Policy continuity which is connected to a particular world view. It’s there, sometimes very subtle and sometimes very strong.

Agreed. Colonialism in multiple forms. One form of hegemony exchanged for a newer, more politically correct form.

So as Medvedev predicts, it might last for decades as the West will continue to be incapable of negotiating a fitting end.

Something tells me the end will not be negotiated …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 4 2023 7:19 utc | 192

Re: Ukraine Open Thread 2023-157 Ed | Jul 2 2023 19:24 utc | 75

Other leading scholars—including the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer, Harvard’s Stephen Walt and MIT’s Barry Posen, among others—have argued that Ukrainian neutrality could stabilize security in Europe. Most recently, Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft wrote that Ukraine’s neutrality, modeled on the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, would “remove the greatest motive by far for Russian interference in and intimidation of Ukraine.”

MIT’s Barry Posen is NOT a neo-conservative as someone wrote earlier. I concur with Ed’s recommendation.
I did a day’s worth of research, wrote a new article and came up with some nice references.
Related reading:
“Israeli Neo-Revisionism and American Neoconservatism: The Unexplored Parallels | By Ilan Peleg and Paul Scham |”
“The Prelude to the Ukraine Crisis: Military Managerialism and the Limits to the Institutional Discourse”
Military managerialism is a principle described by thinkers like C. Wright Mills and Seymour Melman, two Columbia University professors who were among the leading anti-militarist intellectuals in the United States.

Posted by: Oui | Jul 4 2023 7:31 utc | 194

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 4 2023 7:19 utc | 195
“No entity with a monopoly on power accedes to the power of Charter or Constitution.”
Got that right! Sure you’re not an anarchist?
“Something tells me the end will not be negotiated …”
Indeed. As I suggested in an earlier thread, things will end when there is either or both a devastating military defeat or a devastating economic collapse. Unfortunately, that usually leads to a worse government than a better one. Of course, if the military defeat is devastating enough, there won’t be a government, at least until the winner leaves, which, historically, could take generations.
And when it comes to ideologies outside of government, which I think karlof1 is referring to, they hang around even longer, maybe in various differing forms but in essence the same.
Where I come in is in identifying why these ideologies keep rising based on human nature, which is an area that most “reformers” like karlof1 don’t care to explore because they have their own ideology.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 4 2023 7:35 utc | 196

The SCO-2023 summit has started in India. Vladimir Putin is expected to speak.
Live broadcast of the Izvestia TV channel. iz.ru

Posted by: ostro | Jul 4 2023 7:41 utc | 198

Estonian PM Kaja Kallas said they will build some sort of Nato base in Narva within 2 years. Guess she skipped some lessons on the theory of Realpolitik.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 4 2023 7:45 utc | 200