I believe that even in Washington realpolitik has won and I expect the caravan to move on. This means that the USA is about to drop Ukraine unceremonially. It’ll be a huge surprise to many but not so much for us. The mess that remains will be safely left to EUropa.
Speaking of that, and it may sound off-topic but really isn’t: you will all have heard about von der Leyen’s call for money. Because the EU blew its seven year budget 1.8 x 10^12 € in two years. This spending spree includes Corona “measures”, specifically good old corruption with many leaders involved and Ursula right at the top with her super special Pfizer deal. But it also includes the Friedensfaszilität, an unusually Orwellian word in a pretty Orwellian time, which contains a different source of corruption: EU countries (and also non-EU countries like Norway) got to “sell” their sometimes very rusty military garbage from the depots, so that Ukrainians can die better and they don’t have to disassemble according to local rules. Win-win, except for dead Ukrainians, of course. Then a lot of money went into Green Transition. Anyway, money’s gone.
I believe we are seeing the end of the EU as a meaningful institution. (It may creep onwards in a formal state of existence for longer.) Do you agree?

Posted by: Konami | Jul 3 2023 15:50 utc | 4

@ Konami | Jul 3 2023 15:50 utc | 4
i agree with you.. that and the end of nato as another meaningful institution is all in sight here… moa week in review, b left an article that basically goes along with your view…
THE ART OF VASSALIZATION: HOW RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE HAS TRANSFORMED TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2023 16:15 utc | 6

“A centre for the prosecution of crimes of aggression committed in Ukraine has opened in The Hague with the backing of the EU, the US and the international criminal court (ICC).”
Ursula von der Leyen said the aim of the centre was to bring to justice those involved in “unspeakable horrors” such as sexual violence, kidnapping of children and displacement of civilians.”
“The European Commission president said: “We will leave no stone unturned to hold [Vladimir] Putin and his henchmen accountable.””
I wonder if there will be one for crimes committed in Iraq by the US/UK et al.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 3 2023 16:17 utc | 8

“I believe that even in Washington realpolitik has won and I expect the caravan to move on.”
I agree with you, but why shouldn’t the US move on? Its Mission Accomplished-Nordstream gone (Europeans now buying expensive US LNG), relations with Russia and the EU have been severed, all the old arms have been sent to the Ukraine (sold more than given) so the US and Europe have to re-up with new, expensive US arms.

Posted by: canuck | Jul 3 2023 16:18 utc | 10

Last year somebody posted something similar to this logic–can somebody please shed some insight into the conclusions?
1) Assume Ukraine has about 20,000,000 people left
2) Assume they are roughly equally distributed in ages between 1 and 100, so there are ~200,000 of each age
3) Assume a 50/50 split between men and women, and assume that women don’t fight at all, so 100,000 males of each age
4) Assume that fighting age is 18-47 for easy math, so 3,000,000 possible soldiers
5) Assume that only 20% are fit for duty, so a pool of only 600,000 active duty soldiers exist
Given the piss poor (rushed) training, why is there currently a shortage of manpower?
Sorry if this is a dumb question–just trying to understand where the logic breaks down

Posted by: Atlantis Dreams | Jul 3 2023 16:39 utc | 12

The US proxy war has had many unintended consequences. Russians have demonstrated it has superior weaponry and manufacturing capacity. No amount of spin by the salespeople at the Pentagon PR division, i.e., Western MSM, will convince customers pay more to get less “bang” for the buck.
”

Posted by: Willow | Jul 3 2023 16:39 utc | 14

By the way, the Ukraine is not talking about the Patriot AA systems these days, maybe because they don’t have them any more, after the first few got kinzhalled.

Posted by: Ostro | Jul 3 2023 16:43 utc | 16

“ No amount of spin by the salespeople at the Pentagon PR division, i.e., Western MSM, will convince customers pay more to get less “bang” for the buck.
”
Posted by: Willow | Jul 3 2023 16:39 utc | 14”
—and yet we have decades of proof that the USA’s client states will buy American weaponry virtually without question, and usually enthusiastically, no matter how arbitrarily priced, no matter how absurdly overpriced, and no matter how poor the quality. Small wonder: US arms sales are the profit part of the US worldwide protection racket. Gadfly states like Türkiye and India might have second thoughts, but I believe that the war in 404 will prove a bonanza for US arms makers. In fact, they could even worsen the quality of their products, and plenty of states, not just in Europe, would lind up to buy.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 3 2023 16:59 utc | 18

An interesting article, I read in KP.ru. I am translating it as it is.
———————–
If Prigozhin’s rebellion had dragged on: Georgia was already planning to enter Sochi on tanks, and Ukraine was planning to enter Crimea
The fact that no troubles, especially armed ones, ended well for any state is clear from any history textbook. But what threats could fall on Russia if the mutiny of the Wagner PMCs did not even succeed, but at least dragged on for a week or two, are just beginning to become clear. And they are amazing.
These plans should be known and remembered so that no one would be tempted to allow such a thing.
TBILISI: “THEY DEDICATED POEMS TO PRIGOZHIN”
A week after the attempted mutiny in Russia, the chairman of the ruling party in Georgia, Arakli Kobakhidze, made a sensational confession. It turns out that the Georgian opposition planned to use the troubles of its northern neighbor to enter Abkhazia, South Ossetia and even on tanks… Sochi.
“That day we called on the opposition to calmly observe what is happening. However, they did not heed our advice. We all remember how they welcomed Prigozhin, how they dedicated speeches and poems to him, how in the wake of his success they planned not only to enter Abkhazia and Tskhinval with tanks, but also to capture Sochi,” Kobakhidze said. – The opposition has shown that it uses any excuse, the first chance, to open a “second front” in Georgia.
Kobakhidze explained that the current authorities in Tbilisi are in favor of the peaceful restoration of trust between Georgians, Abzakhs and Ossetians. And the opposition is “acting on instructions from the outside.”
KIEV: JUST DIDN’T HAVE TIME TO MAKE A BREAKTHROUGH
In Kiev, of course, they also counted very much on their profit from the rebellion in Russia. Deputy. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Anna Malyar, managed to say: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to take advantage of the armed campaign of Wagner on Moscow and increase pressure on the fronts.”
Today it is already clear that the events in Russia came as a surprise to Kiev and they simply did not have time to gather and throw all the reserves to break through the Russian defense. But if the mutiny of the PMCs had lasted longer, the attempt of the “last and decisive” breakthrough of the APU to the Sea of Azov and the Crimea would certainly have taken place.
CHISINAU: DREAMS OF TRANSNISTRIA
They would not have used the turmoil in Russia in Moldova either. Here, radical forces (and they are also at the head of the republic) have been waiting for the right moment to seize Transnistria for a long time. There are also the largest ammunition depots in Eastern Europe left over from the USSR. It is precisely such shells that Ukraine is sorely lacking right now (its stocks have been shot, and NATO does not do this), because it is also eager to invade Transnistria from the other side.
KARABAKH: A NEW WAR
The confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan would flare up with renewed vigor. Now the relative calm in Karabakh is maintained by Russian peacekeepers. The US and the EU don’t like it. They want to oust them (as well as the Russian military base in Armenia) and therefore, almost openly, they are pushing Yerevan and Baku to aggravate.
BELARUS: “A MARCH TO MINSK”
In fact, Alexander Lukashenko, conducting unprecedented negotiations with the rebels from the PMCs in the hottest hours, was doing a great thing not only for Russia, but also for Belarus. It is no secret that in Poland, detachments of militants are preparing to attempt a campaign already on Minsk. And in Ukraine, for this purpose, several “battalions” of Belarusian radicals have been tested in battles on the side of the AFU. And if a real turmoil began in Russia, it would be a signal for an attempt at rebellion in Belarus. Lukashenka averted this threat in time.
WHERE ELSE COULD IT HAVE EXPLODED?
In fact, everywhere. Many respected and not very “partners” have their territorial and resource claims to Russia. The Kaliningrad Region could be under threat of a complete blockade or even aggression, and Japan’s demands to give up the Southern Kuriles would begin with renewed vigor. There are a lot of hunters to pinch off their “Kemsk Volost” from Russia. Even the characters who continue to call themselves the “Russian opposition”, who have moved from Moscow to Berlin, Warsaw, Riga or Kiev, expect to return on the wave of turmoil and find themselves in power. At the same time, they draw maps of the future partition of Russia (calling it “decolonization”) into dozens of small principalities.
Of course, the “Wagnerians” themselves did not think much about it, pushing tanks to Moscow. But they should have.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27523/4788018/

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2023 17:04 utc | 20

So it is worth wondering where Russian drone tech would be today if it had started where it is now? It had everything to recommend it, being inexpensive and right in the sweet spot of Russian tech prowess (similar to missiles). It even slots right in to Geramisov’s doctrine – which turns out to be at least mostly correct.
Posted by: Lex | Jul 3 2023 15:46 utc | 3
Very good point.
This conflict has thrown up two contrasting modes of warfare simultaneously.
Drones on a mass scale which have changed the conduct of offensive action.
Then you have old fashion artillery barrage massively improved it appears if the Propaganda is correct with modern target acquisition technologies.
Peer adversary air defence is on view for the first time as well and that’s led to the above.
Begs the question.
What’s going to happen when the Russians decide to go on the offensive?
Will the Russian air defence superiority hold?
Will NATO figure out counter measures and freeze the conflict,?
Lot’s of questions to be decided.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 3 2023 17:07 utc | 22

@HH | Jul 3 2023 16:17 utc | 9
What more to talk about? At SPIEF, Putin said 5 were destroyed around Kiev. I assume that would be 1 radar and 4 launchers

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2023 17:09 utc | 24

Roger Annis analyses the liberal imperialist apologias to be found at sites like Counterpunch and Common Dreams, whicxh are no longer readable. Happily Annis has a strong stomach and reads the stuff that others no longer can.
“Lawrence Wittner, professor of history emeritus at SUNY/Albany in New York state, has published an essay summing up and voicing the liberal-imperialist view of the conflict in Ukraine. The essay is titled ‘ ‘Two ways that the Ukraine war could have been prevented and might still be ended”. It was originally published in The Daily Kos, June 26, 2023 and has been re-published in U.S. alternative media outlets Common Dreams, CounterPunch and LA Progressive.
“The liberal imperialists of the world are carrying water for NATO in Ukraine
“Wittner’s view of the conflict and of Russia’s role and responsibility is fiercely anti-Russia and pro-imperialist….’
https://socialistincanada.ca/the-liberal-imperialist-view-of-the-conflict-in-ukraine/
As a bonus A Socialist in Canada reprints J Arch Getty’s review of Robert Conquest’s “the Harvest of Sorrow” which summed up the Holodomor myth for Academia.
https://socialistincanada.ca/starving-ukraine-the-historical-debate-over-an-alleged-genocide-in-soviet-ukraine-1932-33/
It is a rare apologia for the Bandera-ites that doesn’t include references to the “Holodomor” a pseudo event that not even the mythmakers claim extended into Polish ruled Bandera land.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 3 2023 17:17 utc | 26

Many years ago, I offered an opinion live on air at CNN about Palestinians and Israel. I argued that Arafat was probably limited in what he could do with Israel and any peace proposals. If he were to agree to too much, they’d probably assassinate him.
I think the same might be true of Zelensky. His use of Azov killers and secret police tactics is a two edged sword. They can force Ukrainian man forward into certain death but what about his own “health” and wellbeing? Before this war began, there were public statements about hanging anyone who would negotiate with Russia. For all we know, his poking around foreign nations might include thoughts about becoming a refugee himself. I don’t think a villa in Italy or Florida will cover it. A better idea would be using the right of return and fleeing to Israel – who have protected some surprising people as returning Jews. He needs to talk to Netanyahu discreetly.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 3 2023 17:23 utc | 28

Posted by Lex
I know some people refuse to believe that corruption, poor leadership/management or mistakes are actually possible in the Russian MoD.
The level of corruption in EU and United States of Hypocricy / NATO / CDC far exceeds, even dwarfs that of Russia. Think for a second that Russia is overpowering an adversary many times its size (Russia is really defending itself against US/ EU/ NATO).

Posted by: Aobh OSheachnasaigh | Jul 3 2023 17:26 utc | 30

“The war in Ukraine will only end when one of two things happens: either Ukraine runs out of bodies, or Ukraine runs out of money and ammo. […] Any guesses on which will occur first and end the war?”
They will run out of bodies.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 3 2023 17:30 utc | 32

It seems like the war of jokes, Russia which continues to supply the West with gas and oil as well as uranium and many other things and which the West itself uses to produce weapons and military vehicles which it regularly sends, together with soldiers, to Ukraine to kill the Russians,
I think it’s about time the soldiers of any nation started blowing off the heads of the politicians who govern them.

Posted by: A.cagliostro | Jul 3 2023 17:35 utc | 34

The SMO is bearing fruit. Western Europe (including France, BENELUX) is crumbling socially and probably economically, and Germany is crumbling economically, which contributes to further mayhem for social crumbling across Europe due to losing the free EU money effect.
Poland has made a massive order of weapons, but some have analyzed that Poland’s economy simply isn’t large enough to support the sort of armed forces they would like to. For Poland, they will have to use it soon, or lose it, so to say. Poland is a glass cannon, no sustainability.
Most likely the support for Ukraine has a lower chance of increasing compared to earlier and higher chance of only decreasing over time.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 3 2023 17:48 utc | 36

Atlantis Dreams @ 12
Exiles guess @ 29 is as good as any. Takes a lot of optimism and willful ignorance to get Uke population much higher.
Population pyramids for Ukraine exist and have been on this page fairly recently. Not searching myself just now, you could find them. Basically emigration always leans towards the young. The young are just more mobile. The pyramid is inverted. Emigration has been ongoing for over 30 years. Those who left 30 years back or twenty years back had their children abroad. Current guesses are 400,000 Uke soldiers dead, at least as many badly wounded, not ever returning to duty. And another 400,000 wounded enough they would do a lot to avoid a return to duty. Suddenly the available manpower looks small.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 3 2023 17:52 utc | 38

APU has been coming for a month: what has changed during this time? Analysis of the Military chronicle
Active hostilities in the Zaporozhye and South Donetsk directions began on June 4. How has the combat situation changed during the month of the offensive?
At what stage is the offensive now?
For a number of reasons, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the leadership of Ukraine do not like to call an offensive an offensive. At the same time, it is noticeable that the military and civilian leadership still has no consensus on assessing the progress and prospects of the offensive. There is a certain confusion. Only the first phase of the operation has been formally completed. The second phase is likely to begin in the coming days to demonstrate the results for the NATO summit on July 11. To date, the situation on the battlefield has not developed in the best way for the AFU: defensive lines, minefields and the activity of the RF aviation prevent progress as planned.
What did the APU plan and what did they get?
Apparently, Kiev was counting on a “blitzkrieg” — an exit to Tokmak (35 km from Orekhov) during the first three to four days and to Melitopol (81 km from Orekhov) in the next seven to ten days.
In reality, this plan failed already on the third day after the start of the offensive. The Ukrainian army has again been imposed a positional war of attrition, which it cannot win. It is noteworthy that the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, losing expensive foreign equipment, again found themselves in the role of an object. It is the Russian troops who impose on them the configuration, place, time and nature of the fighting. And thus put at a disadvantage.
In addition, the AFU failed to realize three of its advantages, which until June 4 were considered key: numerical superiority, NATO intelligence and, as claimed, high command controllability of troops.
What happened in reality?
In a month, an amazing rigidity in the implementation of plans has manifested itself. Ukrainian troops are rushing into battle in the same areas, the offensive command in the person of General Syrsky, who lost the battle for Artemovsk and failed to conduct a counteroffensive there, makes the same mistakes over and over again, and there are still no solutions to long-standing problems like lack of transport and lack of air support. Because of this, the total losses of the APU killed and wounded since the beginning of the offensive can reach 23-27 thousand people. In many ways, such losses were caused by a shortage of command staff — the death of officers during strikes on headquarters led to the fact that the management of troops is entrusted to ordinary personnel who are not able to correctly assess the situation on the battlefield and plan combat operations.
What is the result?
Since June 4, Ukrainian troops have been advancing in Zaporozhye and in the South Donetsk direction on the same settlements. A significant part of these villages has not been taken under control and is located in a gray zone — it is impossible to dig in there, and after the start of movement, artillery and air strikes are immediately carried out on the AFU. In some areas, the APU failed to advance at all. As a result, the offensive of the Ukrainian troops is a movement from the initial positions to the advanced areas, accompanied by the loss of equipment and withdrawal back, which clearly contradicts the plans of the command.
https://t.me/milchronicles/2116

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2023 17:54 utc | 40

the counteroffensive is making no real progress, the Ukrainians are losing men and arms at a rate that cannot be sustained, and meanwhile the Biden Administration is facing increasing pressure to produce some kind of results that will justify it’s military policies, as the lives of ordinary americans continue to get worse due to inflation. the tension continues to ratchet up.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 3 2023 18:02 utc | 42

Anybody have any substack articles discussing Ukraine’s current demographics. I don’t see how they can keep going if there demographic problems are that severe.

Posted by: Bob567777 | Jul 3 2023 18:15 utc | 44

Dmitri Medvedev’s very important essay, The Era of Confrontation,” is translated and can be read here.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 3 2023 18:21 utc | 46

I also don’t think it is going to be easy for the Biden administration and the neocons to simply pivot away from this war (the neocons won’t in any case, dismembering Russia is the entire point of their existence). this isn’t going to be possible to memory hole like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 3 2023 18:29 utc | 48

Posted by: Monos | Jul 3 2023 17:27 utc | 31
Good question. My reply will be a comment about the ineptness of the Western media. I find it amazing that they carry water for the Biden and Zelenskyy administrations and their refusal to negotiate realistically Russia, and in effect act as cheerleaders for the AFU, while refusing to report on how millions of quite able Ukrainian men have “voted with their feet” and are living overseas, and refusing to return to serve in the Ukrainian armed forces.
This would be like if in WWII millions of British men fled to the four corners of the world after Dunkirk, and their only support of the war effort was to cheer for Churchill when his speeches came in on the shortwave radio. It makes no logical sense.
Unless the analogy is wrong, and Ukraine isn’t like Great Britain, and Russia isn’t like Germany. And maybe a less inaccurate analogy would be to compare Ukraine to France after Napoleon had to begin his retreat after Russia had gotten its feet more properly underneath itself, and France’s allies left them in the lurch.
There’s no need for anyone to remind Russia of its own history, and that with Napoleon it wasn’t over until he was dead. There was a cult of personality around the defeated Emperor, and in Ukraine Banderism would imo likely need to be squashed even after Ukraine had conceded it couldn’t win on the battlefield.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 3 2023 18:35 utc | 50

Posted by: Lex | Jul 3 2023 15:46 utc | 3
Really great post.
On slow RF drone development, I seem to remember a discussion, I think a translated official meeting, which said that one factor was that, for a long time, mil drone projects had to use locally sourced components, but the lack of existing component ecosystem and thus lack of demand meant the whole sector languished.
Outbreak of SMO led to change in the rules. Agreed that prior to that it seemed to be mostly high cost, low volume, with an emphasis on US operational concepts.
Lancet has stolen the show a little but Geran is also wake-up call, for which RF now has its own complete production lines. $20k for a truck launched drone with 970–2,500km range and 30–50kg payload, which could be warhead, surveillance gear, comms relay gear, anything, one TG post (or possibly YouTube vid), said there was an anti-radiation variant. Incredible potential at that price, endurance, flexibility.
I’d also like to see Grad and TOS-1 artillery rockets fitted with a low cost laser-seeker upgrade so they can economically engage individual targets. The existing guided rocket artillery all seems to be too pricey to pick apart lower value targets. Basic Grad rockets are a lot faster and cheaper than Lancets.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 3 2023 18:42 utc | 52

12 million population in Kiev territory now – heavily skewed towards elderly and unable to travel.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 3 2023 18:53 utc | 54

Posted by: Exile | Jul 3 2023 18:53 utc | 54
That’s interesting, do you mean the Kiev oblast & the city, or the entirety of Ukraine? Where could I find info on that?
I was assuming Ukraine’s population was like 18 to 20 million people, comparable in size to the Netherlands or half of Poland. Col Douglas MacGregor had a similar opinion.
If the population of Ukraine really is 12 million now, that’s like throwing Hungary and Slovenia together.

Posted by: Albert Balog | Jul 3 2023 18:59 utc | 56

My bad, I stink at geography sometimes lol. Reading your comment, I read it while thinking Kiev/Kiev oblast’s population was the size of Paris/Île-de-France region. Turns out Kiev city itself was less than 3 million before the SMO.

Posted by: Albert Balog | Jul 3 2023 19:04 utc | 58

Posted by: Lex | Jul 3 2023 15:46 utc | 3
No they didn’t, after 2014 there were plenty of papers written about how successfully they’d integrated drones into their recce-strike complexes. What happened was an explosion in drone technology in the West, driven somewhat by domestic demand, that was not matched by Russia, a problem with state control mechanisms. War though is a good teacher and Russian drones were used extensively in Syria, but they were not as ubiquitous or technologically sophisticated as their Western counterparts. The SMO is changing this though, especially as the drones are having to adapt to a hostile EW environment and are becoming better with each iteration.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 3 2023 19:05 utc | 60

@Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 3 2023 17:01 utc | 19

The current status quo allows Russia to continue to build up resources and manpower in excess of what is required at the front while Ukraine must devote all additional resources just to maintain it’s current position. I don’t expect to see a change in Russian strategy unless/until there is a significant change on the Ukrainian side. likely the reason for the noise about the NPP is that the west has understood their dilemma and sees no way to alter their position on the battlefield without engineering a way to introduce NATO resources more directly.

One of the best summaries I have seen of the current situation in Ukraine. The need to destroy the Ukrainian Army to the point that it collapses enough to limit the amount of warfare in the cities is a great insight. The West would want to leave a scorched earth in Ukraine if Russia wins, to saddle it with the huge costs of rebuilding while reducing Ukraine’s immediate economic output. Mariupol is an excellent example, and Russia is striving hard to make it a shining example of Russia’s positive intentions in Ukraine, to both the world and the Ukrainian people. But the cost of rebuilding that single city is very high. Russia needs to destroy the foreign mercenaries and sheep dipped NATO soldiers and the Azov, as they would be the obvious ones to destroy the dams, bridges etc. to take Ukraine back to the “Stone Age”. The destruction of the NPPs then becomes a way of giving a poisoned chalice to Russia, while also blaming them for such attacks. I put nothing past the West, they attempt to destroy everything that they cannot have: biological warfare and the levelling of everything in North Korea, agent Orange in Vietnam, the absolute destruction of Afghanistan, the same for Libya and the same for Syria. At some point the Russians may need to take risks to protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, or quietly threaten the West with consequences if such acts are carried out.
@Konami
The US won’t just walk away, they will want to make sure that Ukraine provides as much pain as possible to Russia. It may be removed from the US official media but it will grind on, to give time for the destruction of as much as possible. Ukraine is a very large country, and unless the Russians/Belarussians drive from north to south to cut off Ukraine in the west this war can be kept going for quite a while. The rabid elites of the Baltic States, Poland and Romania can be kept foaming at the mouth and supporting Ukraine for a long time, even in the event of the destabilization of their own nations. Lets remember that it took two decades for the West to be forced out of Afghanistan, and there were many years that that nation was made pretty much invisible to the Western populations. If Trump wins in 2024, then perhaps there will be a different outcome and the self-identified “king of the deal” will make a deal.
@Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 3 2023 16:17 utc | 8

“The European Commission president said: “We will leave no stone unturned to hold [Vladimir] Putin and his henchmen accountable.”” I wonder if there will be one for crimes committed in Iraq by the US/UK et al.

Absolutely standard practise for the West, their crimes against humanity are either memory-holed or are put down to “mistakes were made”. Always the need to vilify the enemies of the West as not civilized and monsters, just like Big Brother did in 1984 for whoever the enemy was at the time. The elite needs the repeated “two minutes of hate” to legitimize their crimes.
@Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2023 17:04 utc | 20
The Western diasporas are a poison for the ex Soviet-bloc nations, together with the traitorous bought and paid for NGO local actors, and the Western trained and turned politicians etc. We see this in Moldova where Sandu (a Moldovan who graduated from Harvard and worked at the World Bank in Washington DC) would not have been elected without the diaspora vote. We see this in Georgia with the engineered demonstrations and Western threats to stop the government passing legislation to get some control over foreign funded NGOs and media – including the French-born President (educated at the French elite Science Po where she became a professor). The next President will be chosen by the Parliament in 2024, and with the current balance of power in the Parliament her successor will not be a poisonous diaspora.
It was through the diaspora (the progeny of Nazi collaborators and WaffenSS brigade members given sanctuary in the West) that the cult of Bandera and Russia-hating was brought back to Ukraine. Russia needs to take the Ukrainian South to block the coast and to be directly in the face of the Moldovans. In Georgia it would seem that the purge of the traitors will take time but will be successful (with 2 steps forward and 1 step back). The deepening Iran/Russia alliance also helps discipline the Caucasus. The Wagner and nuclear missiles have brought some sense (and fear) into the Polish elite who dream about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The hooligans of the CIA, MI6 etc. are always at work and require constant attention to foil their evil little games.
As for Kaliningrad, Russia has been very plain that their limitation on the use of nuclear weapons stops with an invasion of Russian territory. Also NATO article 5 is not triggered by an act of aggression by a NATO country. The combination of nuclear weapons and Wagner in Belarus has also probably cooled the passions of the arrogant, imperialist Polish elite.
Posted by: Aobh OSheachnasigh | Jul 3 2023 17:33 utc | 33

One has to think that the Russian people for the most part are now fully aware that they have no choice but to fight until victory, ie safety for all Russian people and the Russian lands and legacy is assured. The cancer they are up against is a mindless killer and cannot be reasoned with.

Exactly!
And in the meantime, the Ukrainian regime keeps throwing away the lives of its young, and not so young, men. Sadly, the quicker the better it would seem for Ukraine. Then it can at last be freed from three plus decades of Western interference and subjugation, and oligarchic extraction. I don’t see the Russian oligarchs being allowed to dominate Ukraine, quite the opposite I see a move against them in Russia. The war and the sanctions have much strengthened Putin’s and the state’s hands. There is no way forward for Russia with the 1990s kleptocrats still in place.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 19:08 utc | 62

Maybe we should be surprised that Ukraine hasn’t sent terrified women and weeping children to clear minefields and assert that ‘Russia will never shoot them’ as human shields.
If they run out of money and tanks, they can still send guys they dragged off the street into battle by the thousands for years to come. Slavyangrad claims Ukr leadership is threatening medical personel with being sent to the meat grinder if they protest their low wages.
If Russia wants to end this war, they need to kill all the enforcers in Ukraine – the Azov types, the internal security people who can push seemingly infinite numbers into annihilation indefinitely.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 3 2023 19:17 utc | 64

Posted by: HH | Jul 3 2023 16:17 utc | 9
No need, the not so subtle message, that NATO need to rethink their escalatory plans due to the West’s relative impotence has been delivered hypersonically. I think they understood, hence less talk about coalitions of the willing and direct Nato support in the conflict.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 3 2023 19:24 utc | 66

@Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 3 2023 19:04 utc | 59

I’m reminded of the Allies and de Beers in WW2. Germany was “somehow” getting African diamonds for precision bearings – and despite the might of the US and UK, they continued to get them.

And the big US corporations got compensation for their bombed German factories that were producing for the German war effort. Throughout the war IBM supplied the filing systems through which Germany ran the massive information gathering and tracking mechanisms needed to support the Holocaust.

In 1938, the [Koch] patriarch wrote that “the only sound countries in the world are Germany, Italy and Japan”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/17/dark-money-review-nazi-oil-the-koch-brothers-and-a-rightwing-revolution
Just like Mr. Ford who got a medal from Hitler. Churchill loved Italian fascism, his problem with Hitler was not fascism but that he sensed that Hitler sought German supremacy against the UK and France. If Hitler had kept going east, instead of turning west against France, he would be a hero in our text books, “the great fighter against the communist menace!”
In Spain, the West had already made sure that a fascist dictator won rather than the Republicans by providing no support to the democratic forces. They then gifted the highly advanced Czech arms industry to Hitler, as well as the good ethnic-German citizens of Austria and the Sudetenland. They had already allowed Hitler to reclaim the industry of the Ruhr unopposed. A victorious against the Soviets but massively weakened and overstretched Germany would then have been easy pickings for the West; classic “offshore balancing”. That all changed in 1940 with the invasion of France and again in 1942 at Stalingrad, when the Soviet Union showed that it may defeat the Nazis.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 19:31 utc | 68

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 3 2023 17:23 utc | 28
His mom was a Uki Christian so is that really open to him? Never mind that a large number of the ‘Jews’ that left the Ukraine SRR in the 50’s and 60’s were just Banderites with fake papers that Israel took in to fight the Bathists and push back against the left wing Jews that wanted to make peace. I don’t know if it would be safe for him there. Maybe China?

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 3 2023 19:34 utc | 70

@Konami | Jul 3 2023 15:50 utc | 4
re: we are seeing the end of the EU as a meaningful institution. (It may creep onwards in a formal state of existence for longer.) Do you agree?
@james | Jul 3 2023 16:15 utc | 6
re: b left an article . . .
…from the article

The nations of Europe are not currently capable of defending themselves and so they have no choice but to rely on the United States in a crisis. But that observation just begs the question. These are wealthy, advanced nations with acknowledged security problems and a growing awareness that continuing to rely on the United States entails long-term risks. So why do they remain so incapable of formulating their own response to crises in their neighborhood?
There are two fundamental causes. First, all the focus on America’s decline relative to China and the recent upheavals in U.S. domestic politics have obscured a key trend in the transatlantic alliance over the last 15 years. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the United States has become ever more powerful relative to its European allies. The transatlantic relationship has not become more balanced, but more dominated by the United States.
The second cause is that European governments have failed to reach a consensus on what greater strategic sovereignty should even look like, how to organize themselves for it, who their decision-makers would be in a crisis, and how to distribute the costs. More profoundly, the nations of Europe do not agree on what to do and do not trust each other enough to reach compromises on these questions. American leadership remains necessary in Europe because Europeans remain incapable of leading themselves. . . .here

I’d offer two other causes:
1. The US is far and away the largest world investor and practitioner in military affairs, including warfare. So it’s meant endless wars for the US especially against long-hated Russia.
2. The European Union bloc, an illegal entity, oriented toward US/NATO, has removed from European governments any cause to worry about “greater strategic sovereignty.” These countries have largely ceded their sovereignty.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 3 2023 19:42 utc | 72

@ Don Bacon | Jul 3 2023 19:42 utc | 76
i agree with your quote here.. thanks – ” These countries have largely ceded their sovereignty.” and none of them seem to care either!

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2023 19:49 utc | 74

From Sputnik: https://sputnikglobe.com/20230703/ukraine-has-only-one-option-all-in-offensive-before-nato-summit-in-vilnius-1111641528.html

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Running Out of Time — Russian Ex-General
Kiev is preparing the second stage of the counteroffensive because the first, despite using huge amounts of Western military equipment and Ukrainian troops, did not bring results, Leonid Reshetnikov, a veteran Russian foreign intelligence official, told Sputnik.
Kiev is reportedly eager to receive an invitation to begin the process of joining NATO during the upcoming summit in Vilnius, according to a Ukrainian presidential aide.
As Kiev expects a response to its membership application, which was submitted in September 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he will not attend the summit unless NATO leaders show “courage” in their decision.
Leonid Reshetnikov, a retired lieutenant general of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told Sputnik that the second stage of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the battlefield is expected by the time the Vilnius summit opens in just ten days. According to him, the Kiev regime needs results in order to get decisions in favor of further arms and financial support, and even NATO membership.
“Faced with limited options, the Kiev regime has no other choice but to press on. This next phase involves a comprehensive review of tactics and strategy, coupled with the deployment of previously untapped reserves,” he said.
According to Reshetnikov, reports indicate the possibility of introducing new elements, such as major provocations, similar to when Ukrainians blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.
“So far, that explosion hasn’t had the desired result. Perhaps something along those lines, including possibly related to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. They are building up tension in this regard. It is possible that it will be used for the offensive,” he stressed.
This offensive is expected to be launched before the upcoming summit in Vilnius. The ongoing nationwide mobilization signals growing understanding that Kiev’s current forces may not be sufficient to achieve a breakthrough.
“Such plans exist. But I repeat, their offensive is inevitable,” Reshetnikov noted.
However, the primary objective for Ukraine remains to break through the Russian defense lines to reach the Sea of Azov and the border with Crimea, the expert noted.
“In the first stage, Ukrainian forces were unable to breach the initial line of Russian defenses. In response, the second stage is based on the hope that a protracted defense will exhaust the defenders psychologically and technologically,” he said.
Reshetnikov likewise noted that the Ukrainian military is pursuing a strategy of sending inexperienced soldiers on frenzied attacks in a desperate bid to locate potential weak links in the Russian defense.
“However, the Russian defense lines have been fortified while, as far as we know, a significant part of the reserves have not been put in place. So the Ukrainian plans are very questionable,” he noted.
The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valery Zaluzhny recently told Western media that it would be impossible to conduct an offensive without additional supplies of NATO ammunition and aircraft. Reshetnikov believes that these statements serve a dual purpose: to garner increased Western support and to justify the lack of success so far.
“Nevertheless, it is important to note that Western assistance, while valuable, cannot single-handedly alter the situation on the ground. Substantial and sustained assistance would be required to have a significant impact,” he said.
In an attempt to explain Kiev’s shortcomings, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar has propagated the idea that Russian forces are conducting an offensive in four directions – Avdeyevka, Maryinka, Krasny Liman and Svatovo. However, Reshetnikov believes that this claim is purely a propaganda tactic to rationalize Ukrainian setbacks.
“While Russian forces have adopted an active defense strategy that includes counterattacks and advances on enemy [Ukrainian] strongholds, these actions fall short of a full-fledged offensive. In the event of another failed counteroffensive, the Russian army may seize the opportunity to launch a counteroffensive of its own, taking advantage of a worn-out Ukrainian military,” he said.

I’ve got a gut feeling this forthcoming Vilnius summit will be quite acrimonious behind the scenes, despite the public platitudes about “unity”, “steadfastness” and “common goals” etc.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 3 2023 20:04 utc | 76

Jo Dominich no. 20
Yup. Them too. But i doubt it. They can do no wrong apparently.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 3 2023 20:11 utc | 78

With the Russian ability to destroy tanks and APCs seemingly at will during Ukrainian attacks the latter have now been forced into an even worse version of the failed tactics of the Battle of the Somme, infantry advancing on foot against dug in machine guns through minefields, mass artillery, guided munitions, drones, and attack from the air. They have traded less vehicle losses for far higher infantry losses. This will just speed up the liquidation of the Ukrainian army.
From Weeb Union, Heavy Losses Associated With Ukrainian Advances

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 20:15 utc | 80

“That splurging in the EU and similarly in the US is the reason for the high inflation we are experiencing now. Whenever liberal progressive take power, they leave a devastated budget behind.” – Posted by: alek_a | Jul 3 2023 16:11 utc | 5
The IMF offers an alternative explanation:
Rising corporate profits were the largest contributor to Europe’s inflation over the past two years as companies increased prices by more than the spiking costs of imported energy. https://bit.ly/441jfya – @IMFNews
https://twitter.com/IMFNews/status/1673287590865412096?s=20
. . . the higher inflation so far mainly reflects higher profits and import prices, with profits accounting for 45 percent of price rises since the start of 2022. That’s according to our new paper, which breaks down inflation, as measured by the consumption deflator, into labor costs, import costs, taxes, and profits. Import costs accounted for about 40 percent of inflation, while labor costs accounted for 25 percent. Taxes had a slightly deflationary impact.
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/26/europes-inflation-outlook-depends-on-how-corporate-profits-absorb-wage-gains

Posted by: DocHollywood | Jul 3 2023 20:49 utc | 82

Since it is apropos to the notion of MIC budgets, graft and inflation, https://thehustle.co/08032022-Greedflation/ .
A lot of the inflation experienced not only by the taxpayer (i.e. the government) in this Ukraine war, but by individual families (i.e., “consumers”), is due to the simple (monopoly) capitalist principle that the fewer suppliers of a good/commodity and the weaker the regulations on the market/s, the more freedom capitalists (MIC and corporations) have to raise prices for no other reason but that they can get away with doing so.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 3 2023 20:51 utc | 84

Posted by: Exile | Jul 3 2023 16:16 utc | 7
It’s doubtful that the War Party gives up so easily. … More likely the War Party keeps The Ukrainian Civil War simmering with the addition of even more sheep dipped Eastern European and U.S. (trailer trash) volunteers.

I cannot say how many important figures in the USA want a war against Russia or China. But I think it’s possible and important to say that the Ukraine-Russia was *already useful*: while it didn’t achieve the goals against Russia, it severed EUropa from Russia; triggered US reindustrialisation; immediate windfall gains from energy and weapon exports.
This war, like any other, will be milked as long as useful. Looks to me as if peak utility is about to be reached, and they’re climbing down.

Posted by: canuck | Jul 3 2023 16:18 utc | 10
Its Mission Accomplished-Nordstream gone (Europeans now buying expensive US LNG), relations with Russia and the EU have been severed, all the old arms have been sent to the Ukraine (sold more than given) so the US and Europe have to re-up with new, expensive US arms.

Exactly, that’s my whole point. I think it’s important to stress this against the Nuclear Cult people. And because there’s rationality (but of course no morality) in what’s happening.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 3 2023 16:21 utc | 11
I think that we have reached the spiteful stage of poisoning the future. Both in the EU generally and Ukraine specifically.

Agreed. The future for the average citizen of the former First World looks gloomy. Ukrainians are fucked. The other day we talked to a mother from Ukraine who proclaimed that she’ll “have holidays at home after we won the war”. The hate will take generations to wash out, and it may never happen.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 3 2023 16:59 utc | 18
In fact, they could even worsen the quality of their products, and plenty of states, not just in Europe, would lind up to buy.

I see the weapon imports as the equivalent of what used to be tribute payments in ancient times. You even get a shiny trinket to show to your populace!
You’re probably aware that countries like Germany pay more for already fantasy-priced F-35 airplanes than e.g. Poland or the Pentagon. As the leader of a Democratic Free State (TM), you have to buy American, to be safe and to be re-elected.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 19:08 utc | 6
The US won’t just walk away, they will want to make sure that Ukraine provides as much pain as possible to Russia. It may be removed from the US official media but it will grind on, to give time for the destruction of as much as possible. Ukraine is a very large country, and unless the Russians/Belarussians drive from north to south to cut off Ukraine in the west this war can be kept going for quite a while. The rabid elites of the Baltic States, Poland and Romania can be kept foaming at the mouth and supporting Ukraine for a long time, even in the event of the destabilization of their own nations. Lets remember that it took two decades for the West to be forced out of Afghanistan, and there were many years that that nation was made pretty much invisible to the Western populations. If Trump wins in 2024, then perhaps there will be a different outcome and the self-identified “king of the deal” will make a deal.

I agree. A country like Ukraine is a consumable item in the hands of the USA, and the resource has not yet been entirely used up. That’s the part of Washington arguing for stronger war support. It is also clear that even if there was an armistice, there’ll be terrorist and sabotage actions, as this is standard US practice. But I believe the war will fade out from the TV screens and the minds of Western citizens. As you mention Trump: I’ve read today that in his campaign speeches, he boasts being the one president who didn’t start a war. He’s not wrong there.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 3 2023 19:42 utc | 73
The European Union bloc, an illegal entity, oriented toward US/NATO, has removed from European governments any cause to worry about “greater strategic sovereignty.” These countries have largely ceded their sovereignty.

Yes, that’s true. There are some funny sounds from Macron but he’s no de Gaulle. I consider the EUropean states to be tributary, dependent vassals. The empire is alive and, in decline, squeezes its vassals harder. I have the feeling that a lot of common people see this in some form. The people who are blind to it are “intellectuals”, in my experience.
Thanks to b for keeping the blog open, and to everyone for having a civilised discussion.

Posted by: Konami | Jul 3 2023 21:04 utc | 86

@Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 3 2023 20:56 utc | 89
So its more like the US troops (probably better trained than the Ukrainian cannon fodder) in the Normandy bocage taking on the experienced Wermacht troops, but with the Germans having the overwhelming superiority in supplies, tanks and armoured vehicles, artillery and in the air (with drones and attack helicopters added), and in numbers. And how many days is it to the NATO summit, at how high a daily kill plus handicapped for life loss rate?

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2023 21:09 utc | 88

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 3 2023 20:51 utc | 88
Yes, I hear “greedflation” often but I doubt if it is the underlying reason. If it is, why after corona? I think rising corporate profits had a lot to do with the digitization and hightech cycles temporarily giving the impression of higher productivity. But the inflation appeared with shortages first and stayed.
My opinion, based on observation in my circle, is that productivity actually dropped with “work from home” and closures of whole sectors while at the same time massive benefits, salaries and other monies were spent by western governments in the covid emergency which turned out to be a black hole. It is the reason the EU budget is empty. Now we have a new black hole: supporting 20+M people and a war. Both are very inflationary as they literally burn resources while the money stays in circulation.
The way out of this is to reduce pulled-forward consumption with high interest rates but that wont work if the underlying productivity problem does not get addressed. There are simply too many people in the West doing nothing productive. It is evidenced by a shortage in skilled trades as literally everyone and their mother went after cosy office jobs during corona. People also moved further away from work which puts even more strains on transport and logistics without corresponding increase in productivity elsewehere. Add to it the regulations around the energy transition which are impossibly inflationary and you know you will have a bad few years coming.

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 3 2023 21:13 utc | 90

Tim2 | Jul 3 2023 21:20 utc | 96–
Over the past weekend it was reported that Putin’s approval broke 90% for the first time. I sasw a video clip of him being greeted in Dagestan last week by a massive crowd of fanatic admirers, shaking hands, thanking soldiers, hugging and kissing women–a security detail’s biggest headache.
After Prigozhin’s escapade, Russia is more united than ever.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 3 2023 21:28 utc | 92

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2023 17:04 utc | 20
«An interesting article, I read in KP.ru. I am translating it as it is. https://www.kp.ru/daily/27523/4788018/
———————–»
“If Prigozhin’s rebellion had dragged on: ”
Indeed interesting, but it wildly exaggerates the profile of the Wagner/GRU “peaceful protest” march towards Rostov and Moscow, where my reading is that the (“Stavka”) General Staff of which the GRU and thus Wagner are just tools had to surrender their tools to the “parquet generals” of the MOD, which apparently was aided by the FSB. Prigozhin has always been just a frontman, but I suspect that this time he overplayed his part and this weakened the GRU position.
«In fact, everywhere. Many respected and not very “partners” have their territorial and resource claims to Russia.»
That’s just an old concept, often revived by other geopolitical powers with designs on destroying Russia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheism
«Prometheism or Prometheanism (Polish: Prometeizm) was a political project initiated by Józef Piłsudski, statesman of the Second Polish Republic from 1918 to 1935. Its aim was to weaken the Russian Empire and its successor states, including the Soviet Union, by supporting nationalist independence movements among the major non-Russian peoples that lived within the borders of Russia and the Soviet Union. Between the World Wars, Prometheism and Piłsudski’s other concept, of an “Intermarium federation”, constituted two complementary geopolitical strategies for him and for some of his political heirs. […] Marshal Piłsudski, who as early as 1904, in a memorandum to the Japanese government, pointed out the need to employ, in the struggle against Russia, the numerous non-Russian nations that inhabited the basins of the Baltic, Black and Caspian Seas»
The protest over pay and logistics of a mere 2,000 wagnerians did not change anything either way in that respect.

Posted by: Blissex | Jul 3 2023 21:30 utc | 94

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 3 2023 21:13 utc | 94
I think greedflation is pretty well established by now. https://blog.simplefx.com/2023/04/14/greedflation-how-corporations-fueled-global-inflation
Corona or no corona, when we hear from – say – egg producers simultaneous messaging that the Avian Flu is destroying their stocks but then that their profits are up 800%, something is off.

Egg Supplier: 800% Increased Profit per Year
Let me describe a good greedflacion example of a food company from the USA. Company X is one of the largest American suppliers of table eggs, controlling 1/5 of the market in the United States. In February 2023, the price of a dozen eggs from this producer was about $3. The year before (February 2022), it was $1.5, which means that the price of eggs increased by 100% during the year.
However, this is more than compared to the profit, because it turns out that the profit jumped by almost 800% during the year. This means company X earned eight times more than before during the year. Why?
Because the world markets ran out of eggs, the chicken plague has fallen globally, and their numbers have fallen globally due to avian flu. However, company X did not lose a single chicken from its flock. It did not find any illness and was not subject to sanitary rigors. Due to the astronomical increase in egg prices in world markets, Company X sold its eggs at twice the price.

Also keep in mind the monopolization of numerous good and commodity producers. These conglomerates can frankly get away with charging whatever they want whenever they want regardless of market conditions in many cases. They don’t have any (real) competition.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 3 2023 21:37 utc | 96

Roger | Jul 3 2023 21:09 utc | 92–
Thanks for your reply. Your appraisal is about right. It took the US Army several months to figure out the tactics. It developed the hedgerow smashing tanks. One thing the German’s lacked was lots of panzerfausts, and eventually, the US Army built up an advantage in armor and APC and gained control of the air which allowed it to finally move beyond the bocage country.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 3 2023 21:42 utc | 98

The weakest point of defense for Russia (and Russia of course knows this very well) is not Russia itself, but rather Belorussia, whose military is significantly less prepared and of an overall lesser standard than both Russia’s and the NATO-trained Ukraine’s. Ukrainian paramilitary incursions into Belorussia, if they’re significantly disruptive, might prove a very powerful propagandistic blow to Lukashenko’s regime and the internal oligarchy upon which his rule depends.
If the internal oligarchy can be sufficiently pressured by the West they may be tempted to “defect,” using as a carrot forgiveness of the “crimes against humanity” they incurred before the eyes of the world by supporting a Russo-collaborationist regime.
The point is not that the above scenario is some sort of scientific or empirical fact, but rather that it is one path of ideologico-reality formation that may prove very tempting for NATO to undertake, and very difficult for the powers that be in Belorussia to resist–certainly when considered within the context of the recent Prigozhinian quasi or proto-uprising. In other words, a potential taste and test of things to come for the Russian Federation and Union State.

Posted by: Jupiter | Jul 3 2023 21:44 utc | 100