It’s going to require a big bang to penetrate the znpp core buildings. I doubt himars or stormshadow would cut it. Nuclear power plants are designed to withstand extreme events. So a successful false flag would be very difficult to achieve, and which nation wants to be shown in the world community as the instigator.

Posted by: Oh | Jul 1 2023 20:24 utc | 104

@Posted by: gT | Jul 1 2023 19:42 utc | 76

Meanwhile Russians maintain that there would never have been Communism in Russia were it not for the Jews.

Then the people of Russia should feel incredible gratitude to the Jews, as communist rapid industrialization was the only thing that saved them from the same fate as the Amerindians in North America. Russia west of the Ural Mountains would have become the second lebensraum for the Germanic tribes (who populated Britain as the Anglo-Saxons), North America was the first.
Stalin did what he had to do to force through the industrialization required to defeat the Nazis. His speeches continually repeat his views that the USSR needed to become strong enough so as not to be defeated by other nations – as with France and Britain in the Crimean War, Japan in 1904-05, and the Germans in WW1. Hitler openly wrote about his view of the future of the Slavs. Those that prattle on about the “crimes” (some invented such as the “Holodomor” and others massively exaggerated during the Cold War) of communism should think what the Nazis did in the USSR even when they didn’t win, it would have been immeasurably worse if they had. The extermination and ethnic cleansing of the Soviet population (and quite possibly the Polish) all the way to the Ural Mountains.
Given how persecuted the Jews were in Imperial Russia and Europe, it makes sense for them to be drawn to revolutionary theories and groups that looked to overturn the status quo. One of the few activities they were allowed to do was banking, so of course they developed leading skills in that area.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 1 2023 20:26 utc | 106

Posted by: Oh | Jul 1 2023 20:24 utc | 106
As I understand it, the most vulnerable part of the complex are the cooling ponds containing spent fuel rods.

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jul 1 2023 20:28 utc | 108

I don’t understand why a zone of conflict has been permitted
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2023 20:13 utc | 96
Terrain. Since I gather you missed that Oct 2022 “evacuation” of RF mill and some 60K civilians or share the mind of some here that RF must capture Odesa NOW on the way to Poland, I will post ancient advice again.

Sunzi said: We come now to the question of encamping the army, and observing signs of the enemy. Pass quickly over mountains, and keep in the neighborhood of valleys. Camp in high places, facing the sun. Do not climb heights in order to fight. So much for mountain warfare. After crossing a river, you should get far away from it. When an invading force crosses a river in its onward march, do not advance to meet it in mid-stream. It will be best to let half the army get across, and then deliver your attack. If you are anxious to fight, you should not go to meet the invader near a river which he has to cross. Moor your craft higher up than the enemy, and facing the sun. Do not move up-stream to meet the enemy. So much for river warfare. In crossing salt-marshes, your sole concern should be to get over them quickly, without any delay. If forced to fight in a salt-marsh, you should have water and grass near you, and get your back to a clump of trees. So much for operations in salt-marches. In dry, level country, take up an easily accessible position with rising ground to your right and on your rear, so that the danger may be in front, and safety lie behind. So much for campaigning in flat country. These are the four useful branches of military knowledge which enabled the Yellow Emperor to vanquish four several sovereigns.

Last night RF sent an Iksander over head into the Antonov Bridge. Case closed.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 1 2023 20:31 utc | 110

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 20:19 utc | 100
—————
The western MSM doesn’t seem to want to report on France burning…

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2023 20:32 utc | 112

Only one reactor at ZNPP is not in cold shutdown, the one is in hot shutdown to produce enough energy to power the plant. Because the Ukrainians keep shelling the high voltage grid feed into the facility. So I’m not sure how shelling it, even with a missile barrage, or planting explosives would get it to go Chernobyl. And that’s what all the talk seems to suggest: that a reactor will melt down and explode.
That’s not to say that Kiev couldn’t make a huge mess of the area by blowing up spent fuel or that there wouldn’t be consequences of destroying cold shut down reactors. It’s most disturbing that Kiev’s sponsors refuse to forcefully dissuade Kiev of schemes like this. But given who the sponsors are it is not surprising.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 1 2023 20:38 utc | 114

A bit more scientific, imo.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 1 2023 19:47 utc | 83
No. At one point Mearsheimer states: “The Russian army is not large enough for such a task, which would probably require at least two million men.”
This is an error built on top of a false assumption.
The false assumption is that Russia would desire to occupy all of Ukraine. Remember Putin began his career as KGB officer in East Germany. Putin has witnessed first hand the cost and consequences of occupying a people against their will. IMHO, the desire of Russia to occupy is small. For historical reasons, Nazism is seen as undesireable. I guess even if Lviv asked to join Russia it would be refused. A possible outcome is that Russia first “disinfects” Galicia, and after negotiations hands Galicia over to the EU. Ukraine GDP per capita is half the current poorest EU member, Bulgaria. EU rules will result in a large flow of cash to a region that tends towards an ideology that is not officially supported.
The false assumption is that you can calculate the occupation army needed using rules of thumb like “40 million Ukrainians at one occupation soldier for every 20 citizens gives two million soldiers”. The Russian army might go over Ukraine with a fine tooth comb, yes. But Russia is not keen on adding new territory – Donbass and Lugansk have been knocking on the door since 2014. And you are talking abiut a region where the occupation army needed is negative – DPR and LPR actually supply soldiers that add to the Russian army.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 1 2023 20:49 utc | 116

karlof1 @ 100
Keep in mind the situation in Italy in the 60s-70s, the Years of Lead and Operation Gladio. These riots are exactly what Macron needs to declare marshal law all at once putting an end to the gilets jaunes, pension protests, banlieue riots, and anything else collapsing French society throws at him. Put an other way, are these chickens coming home to roost or chickens cooked up on order, a French Gladio in the works?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 1 2023 20:49 utc | 118

Can historical parallels with the financing of conflict by London’s Bankers be found in the current conflict in Ukraine? Are the same players on the stage perhaps ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 1 2023 18:04 utc | 37
All wars are Bankster Wars. And City of London is the Bankster’s Bankster.

Posted by: Mary | Jul 1 2023 20:52 utc | 120

My read on Mearsheimer is that he thinks our war on Russia is a mistake because China is our true geo-strategic enemy, which doesn’t make him pro peace, anti-war, or particularity enlightened in my book. He’s better than a brick in the face but he’s not fighting for a better world, just a better hegenomic strategy. In these dangerous times, like RFK Jr., you take what you can get, but I would reserve plaudits.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 1 2023 20:57 utc | 122

“isQ” s/b “ISW” I just got up, I can’t even see what I’m doing. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2023 21:02 utc | 124

Today, there’s a sudden silence in TG channels…

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2023 21:03 utc | 126

Interesting story on one of America’s most conservative news channels.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia/2023/06/30/id/1125506/
I seriously doubt it. At current loss rates, all of the tanks, IFV’s, other armored vehicles, and artillery will be destroyed before Ukrainian troops even reach Russia’s first defensive line.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 1 2023 21:05 utc | 128

Posted by: Exile | Jul 1 2023 18:54 utc | 54
“58%” of Ukrainians polled. That number (n) may not satisfy the minimum proportion of (N) total population required to describe normal distribution of responses (central limit theorem). Always dig for “methodology” endnote of a survey instrument. Believe me, sampling error is the number 1 source of poll smoke in the USA and UA—oooh boy howdy, have I seen some pathetic explanations by UA “political scientists” for excluding eligible respondents.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 1 2023 21:07 utc | 130

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2023 19:21 utc | 62
They could walk away from their crimes against humanity in Iraq because when it came down to it Saddam was cruel in some respects.
This time they have funded white supremacism neo-NAZI banderites to fight a genocidal war against a pluralistic multi ethnic social democratic state that at worst can be accused of being a bit socially conservative. When people start to see the truth of the matter they will lose all legitimacy. Make no mistake this is a existential threat to the power structures of the OUSE and its vassals.

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 1 2023 21:08 utc | 132

@ ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 1 2023 20:49 utc | 120
thanks.. those sources tend to be contrary indicators as much as anything else..

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2023 21:10 utc | 134

Passerby @ 136

Russian arms development and Chinese manufacturing would be an awesome combination the USA cannot possibly match

In WW3 China plays the industrial powerhouse and military roll the USA played in WW2. Russia provided the manpower and the lives to win WW2 the USA everything else. China last I looked isn’t lacking in manpower either. So, yes, bad idea to make Russia and China allies. Even worse idea is holding on to gangster capitalism and hegemony. None of this has to be this way.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 1 2023 21:22 utc | 136

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 21:19 utc | 139
I wonder how the turmoil in France will affect Germany, and how much internal opposition to NATO is brewing within Germany. I’m hoping the cracks in the NATO alliance widen.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 1 2023 21:26 utc | 138

We are nearly 1-1/2 years into the SMO. Present assessment is such that Russia has achieved most of the objectives it set out to do:
1) NATO is now chicken to admit Ukraine into its fold. Except for brown noses whom have de facto cozied up to the Empire (for what? I don’t know, man! I’m talking about the two Scandinavia brown noses, by the way.) even before the SMO, and whom are waiting in anxies for a Turkish final pass, the rest of NATO aspirants? You can forget ’bout them! NATO from here on may shrink, but would nowhere near hell expand again!
2) The Ukie Nazies are either dead/wounded/AWOL, or neutered. They haven’t since the launch of SMO killed Russian-ethnic Ukrainians, and are now chicken to even think about doing so.
3) Ukraine is de-militarized, de facto! don’t let propagandists fool you into believing Ukraine still has a functional military. They are caput! Weaker than Estonia in military strength.
The only thing Russia hasn’t accomplished is the NATO commitment to abandon eastward expansion. That doesn’t really matter anyway. Even if they made such verbal commitment, you can’t trust them anyway, no???
What has Russia lost so far??? I can’t think of anything. Knowledgeable barflies here please give me some hints.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 1 2023 21:26 utc | 140

Crooke weighs in on Prigozhin’s revolt in his al-Mayadeen column, “The Prigozhin Convoy: ‘Everything Changes; Everything Remains the Same’”, with the following being the meat:

The Western media and ‘experts’ however, are spinning hard that everything did change: That cracks had emerged; that some of the officer cadres, the US says, may have supported the insurrection; and that Prigozhin had “captured” a main city in Russia: Rostov-on-Don.
This is all untrue. Prigozhin sauntered into Rostov — walked to the military HQ — and was filmed chatting on the balcony with a number of generals there. Citizens generally milled around, unconcerned (many videos are online).
This is huge. It is not just that the Prigozhin insurrection was ‘taken seriously’ by the West. It was its’ ‘last Hail Mary’ in respect to Russia. After the failure of its ‘financial war’; the failure of its attempt to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing; its failure to coerce the Rest of the World to join sanctioning Russia; and then, the unexpected failure of the Ukrainian ‘offensive’ to make a make breakthrough against the Russian defensive lines, fomenting chaos in Russia became the ‘last chance of last chances’.

Prior to the above, Crooke cites this The Grayzone, “The real casualties of Russia’s ‘civil war’: the Beltway expert class”, which were quite possibly the target of this event all along–to lead the chattering class off the cliff into mid-air like Wile Coyote and enjoy watching as they plummet to the canyon bottom far below. The few that watched the BigLie Media performance will now be fewer.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 21:33 utc | 142

Posted by: Oh | Jul 1 2023 20:24 utc | 106
The spent fuel storage is apparently much more vulnerable than the reactors. The threat of attack with available weapons leading to large or catastrophic atmospheric release of radioactive material is real.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 1 2023 20:31 utc | 113
I am aware that RF evacuated civilians and personnel from ITS OWN territory, on ITS OWN side of the river. I am asking why RF has not attempted to create a buffer zone ON THE UA side of the river, as this is the only way to push attacking forces away from ZNPP. Nor do I say that RF should capture Odessa now, not that that is remotely germane to RF strategy around ZNPP.
What is this ridiculous advice from the mists of time? You think it analogous to the situation of having an enormous nuclear power station complex and radioactive material stores on one’s own side of the hypothetical river?
You do know that Islander is too expensive and available in too small quantity to be used, even in extremis, to engage dispersed, mobile targets?
Case closed? I am amazed at your lack of coherence.
Why has this Shoigu-Gerasimov axis, in which many place such great stock, allowed the high risk of Kakhovka HPP and the astronomical risk of ZNPP to be on the front line, embedded within the zone of active conflict.
Why has there been no attempt to clear and maintain a buffer zone on UA territory facing these high risk installations? Burning natural cover, remote mining approaches, instructing at-risk civilians to evacuate, running constant drone surveillance patrols backed by artillery, rocket artillery, FPV drones, Gerans and every other relevant and economical fire system in Russia’s considerable arsenals?
Go on, stick to the question and try to answer it, not straw man BS.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2023 21:35 utc | 144

“..The European Welfare State was propped up on 2 pillars.
1. The U.S. taxpayer would pay for the defense of Europe (NATO).
2. Cheap energy from Russia….” kupkee@2
This untrue. And serves the interests of the Capitalist class. It is neo-liberal twaddle. European states are well able to look afyer their most vulnerable members- the USSR, which was far poorer and paid an enormous amount of its annual budget to fend off imperialist aggression ran a far more comprehensive ‘welfare state’ for many years.
As to the US taxpayer paying for Europe’s defence that too is nonsense: most of what Europe spends in arms not only ends up in the US but is completely integrated into US plans for aggression. Europe doesn’t need to spend a cent to defend itself from either Russia, China or Iran, none of whom has ever expressed the slightest interest in invading Europe.
European Defence budgets are a form of tribute paid to the hegemonic oligarchs, who are now saying that the people of Europe cannot afford both Uncle Sam’s MIC and pensions, so they must give up pensions, child allowances, free education, healthcare and unemployment pay.
It’s sad that their talking points are so quickly repeated here.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 1 2023 21:37 utc | 146

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 1 2023 20:49 utc |
Nice. Intelligent reaction. But, that’s such a minor point in his predictions. Perhaps the military burden of occupying the entire defeated Ukraine is why Putin doesn’t want it.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 1 2023 21:43 utc | 148

LightYearsAtHome @125
I’ll grant that Mearshimer, on Russia, is among the least bad of a putrescent apple-barrel of Imperial Russia whisperers.
And though in the past, I’d found him at his weakest in the military component of his analyses, recently he seems to have come to a tenable position (Russia’s almost certain military victory on present trends)–if for some of the least compelling reasons (population size advantage over Kiev).
He fluently marshals arguments for NATO expansion as a cause of the war–but what I find grating in these arguments is that they are, as it were, beside the point. NATO expansion, per se, wasn’t the root problem. Hell, Putin was not even the first Russian/USSR leader to offer to join.
The primordial cause of the war is *why* NATO expands (which contains a clue to why Russian participation was at least twice refused).
In an alternate universe where the Western Imperial Oligarchy seeks global peace and prosperity, NATO unwisely” expanded *despite* warnings that it would lead to war.
No, NATO expanded *because* it would be part of a program to get Russia ensnared in a war, in the present universe, where the Western Imperial Oligarchy does not seek peace and prosperity for the many, but power, mastery, dominion, colonization for the few.
Russia has at least since Napoleon, but arguably for a thousand years, if not all the way back to the early Christian split between Constantinople and Rome, been both a special problem (vastness, strategic depth) and a prize (immense resources and potential for throwaway manpower–enslavement, of Slavs, if we needed a hint).
Cartago delenda est
Napoleon
1917 banker-fomented civil war & Western occupation
WW2–banker-fuelled Hitlerian misfire
1944 – Operation Unthinkable–Churchil proposes nuking Soviet cities
1945 — Hiroshima & Nagasaki as a warning to Soviets
1945 — rescue of Nazi assets, notably Gehlen’s secret police network in E, Europe, arguably running to this day.
1949 — NATO formation, heavily staffed for 2 decades by former Hitler officers.
Operation Gladio–fassassinations of socialists & communists sympathetic to USSR, false-flag terror attacks to discredit them.
1990s CIA/Wall Street plunder and infiltration of Russia
Yugoslavia / Serbia destruction
2001: Wolfowitz Doctrine, Full-Spectrum Dominance
Chechen wars
Georgia war
2014 Maidan coup
Minsk betrayals
2020 Munich security conference & loose talk of UKR nukes
Troop build up and massive increase in shelling–artillery preparation for UKR invasion of Donbass & Crimea…
Boris torpedoing April 2022 peace negotiations.
NATO expansion can only be seen to be a mistake insofar as the day comes when it is widely recognized that NATO and the West are damaged if not destroyed by it.
But after that digression (sorry), what strikes me about Mearshimer’s recent position–and this is central not ancillary to his conclusion that a deal is unlikely–is _because Russia’s goal is to leave Ukraine a crippled rump state_ and therefore obviously Ukraine can not be expected to choose to negotiate.
WTF?? At multiple points Russia has dangled the possibility of UKR not being left a failed state if Ukraine *will agree to terms*, which in April included Odessa & Kharkiv.
Why the hell would any state want a failed state on its borders? This is precisely the prospect that the West threatens RF with. Ukraine is like the kid ISIS has strapped into a bomb vest, while the West retains the detonator.
Hard for me to take Mearshimer seriously as a geopolitical analyst (at least as an honest one) after that.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jul 1 2023 21:48 utc | 150

Unfortunately; as an American, I resemble that remark. President Trump was the only President who refused to initiate a new foreign war without a declaration of war from Congress as our Constitution requires. For that grievous offense, he was impeached.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 1 2023 15:57 utc | 5
You mean the guy who reversed policy to send American military assistance to Ukraine? And he waged no wars without Congressional approval? That’s news to Africa.

Posted by: Gengar | Jul 1 2023 21:49 utc | 152

It’s sad that their talking points are so quickly repeated here.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 1 2023 21:37 utc | 150
Amen.

Posted by: Gengar | Jul 1 2023 21:51 utc | 154

@ Paul Damascene | Jul 1 2023 21:48 utc | 154
well said paul and i concur with your conclusion too.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2023 21:54 utc | 156

Richard L | Jul 1 2023 21:35 utc | 147–
Thanks for your reply. If you recall, the same was done to Jihadists within Syria–pumped with drugs then shoved into combat. You may also recall from 1987’s Star Trek: Next Generation pilot program, “Encounter at Farpoint,” that during “Humanity’s Trial” with Picard as Defendant and Q as Prosecutor a replay of human history was shown that depicted “Western” appearing soldiers in our future 21st Century using drugs to enhance their performance; a brief fleeting glimpse at what reality would soon bring forth. Of course, drug and alcohol use has long existed within militaries, but the method of use depicted in 1987 was eerily similar to that of the 2010s.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 21:59 utc | 158

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jul 1 2023 21:48 utc | 154
I don’t see any way Russia could tolerate a Ukrainian rump state, filled with the virulent Russia haters and ready to be used as a catspaw again by NATO. I’ve seen a suggestion Western Ukraine could be carved up between Russia and Poland, but Poland poses the same problems. Russia needs NATO to dissolve, to be secure, and that mean Europe needs to wake the f up. I’m hoping the riots in France are a step toward that goal.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 1 2023 22:01 utc | 160

… I continue to argue for Russia to expand the perimeter to well beyond the river on the opposite side which they can do without undertaking a direct assault across the river by conducting an airmobile operation.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 21:03 utc | 128
Absolutely agreed. I think it is a simple statement of fact that almost all cases could be handled by drone surveillance and remote strike systems, rather than attempting to station troops on acknowledge Ukrainian territory. Buffer zones should reflect the risk level so clearing out a deep buffer zone facing ZNPP would be a given.
I am asking why nothing like this has even been attempted. One could be forgiven for noting that, once the fighting really starts, the adopted strategy puts ZNPP at so much risk that it is the rational choice for RF to cede control of it to some ad hoc “international” administration, rather than court certain disaster.
I am also asking the bar to refrain from making excuses, as you can bet that there are multiple entire departments of analysts within China’s People’s Liberation Army who are watching and dissecting every move in the Ukraine conflict, you can also be that they aren’t making any excuses.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2023 22:04 utc | 162

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jul 1 2023 15:44 utc | 1
I can think of maybe 3 Latin American countries at the moment with open, violent corruption at scale. Mexico, Colombia and I guess El Salvador. All three are heavily influenced by…..Uncle Scam’s meddling and sabotage. And his incessant appetite for mind altering drugs. What’s Ukraine’s excuse?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 1 2023 22:10 utc | 164

Ukrainian polls on support for everlasting war are garbage.
Ukrainians know that voicing support for the war is an existential issue, because if they don’t they will be disappeared into a Nazi cellar where they will meet an excruciating end.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jul 1 2023 22:15 utc | 166

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 21:33 utc | 146
Crooke is wrong as is usually the case on Prigozhin. Examples:

Prigozhin moves to Belarus to build a Wagner off-shoot that can defend the Belarus southern border, and position itself adjacent to Kiev; the Wagner cadre is absolved of mutiny and, with a tweak to its legal status, largely continues ‘business as usual’.

It is not yet established that Prigozhin will be “building a Wagner off-shoot”. Lukashenko has indeed asked Wagner to train his troops, and there is allegedly evidence that planes belonging to the MoD and used by Wagner are delivering either personnel or materiel to Belarus. So all we know for now is that a small number of Wagner will be used to train Belarus’ army. This is in line with the Russian desire to integrate the Belarus military with the Russian army, so it makes sense that Wagner would be permitted to do that by Russia.
As for “defending the Belarus southern border” and “position itself adjacent to Kiev”, this is of course complete nonsense, which is the result of Crooke knowing zip about military matters. Wagner in its best day at full strength would not add significantly to either task without being supported by regular Russian (or in this case, Belarussian) military.

Putin was, however, less generous, when treating the “the enemies of Russia – the neo-Nazis in Kiev, their Western patrons and other national traitors” who would have benefitted, had the coup succeeded: “They miscalculated” (implying clearly, they had ‘calculated’ aforehand.)

Again, the same logical error committed by everyone who thinks the CIA was behind it. He misrepresents Putin’s remark which was about how the West RESPONDED to the stunt with the idea the West PLANNED the stunt. There remains absolutely zero evidence of that. You’d think Crooke would be a little more conversant with logical reasoning.

The head of the Russian National Guard, Gen. Viktor Zolotov, speaking after President Putin on Friday, seemed to think so: He noted with “certainty” that Prigozhin’s mutiny “was inspired by Western special services – whose foreign ‘inspiration’ had become overlaid by Prigozhin’s own inflated ambitions”.
General Zolotov only said that whether Western agents may, or may not, have been directly involved in conducting the operation is being fully investigated.

So they’re investigating something they’ve already decided is true. I doubt that. Note also the vague term “inspired”. Either the West concocted the plan or they didn’t – “inspiration” is bullshit.
The reality is that Western intelligence would have been aware of the stunt almost as soon as Russian security services. So any actions which occurred after that by the West can be misinterpreted as “foreknowledge” or “complicity”, which is exactly the error Crooke commits.
I’m unimpressed by this article. It says nothing we don’t already know. As for how “huge” it is, I still believe it will be non-news in a week, like much else during this war that has been blown up out of proportion and then forgotten. Moskva, anyone?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2023 22:21 utc | 168

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2023 21:59 utc | 163
“Russia will indeed occupy all of Ukraine” -> When? This decade? Next decade? At the moment the Russians seem to be going backwards. True, not very far backwards, but not forwards.
“Russia can march to Kiev, take the city with minimal casualties” -> that was already tried once and failed.

Posted by: Tim2 | Jul 1 2023 22:21 utc | 170

By the way, as to Twitter…
Musk has imposed the following arbitrary limits, allegedly due to “excessive data scraping”, which I suspect is bullshit. I suspect these are attempts to get more people to pay to get “verified”. If things continue as they are, that will be probably be Twitter’s only income.
Verified accounts are limited to reading 6,000 posts a day
Unverified accounts to 600 posts/day
New unverified accounts to 300 posts/day
So the destruction of Twitter continues apace. It’s amazing how fast one moron can destroy a huge company. Plenty of examples of that in the past.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2023 22:27 utc | 172

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 22:11 utc | 169
In the comments of the article you posted their is some clarification of the difference between static ground pressure and the dynamic pressures that occur in motion. M1 and Challenger tanks have very low peak ground pressures due to the arrangement of the road wheels. Either way they will burn without ever having a meaningful impact on combat.

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 1 2023 22:31 utc | 174

hat tip to karlof1 for comparing the West to Wile E. Coyote. apt.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 1 2023 22:36 utc | 176

RSH’s description of Musk as a “moron” is accurate enough; I’m more inclined to think of him as a petulant, obstreperous child, but our views are hardly mutually exclusive.
More to the point: He’s a huckster, and hucksterism is his only talent. He’s invented nothing; all of “his” innovations were either purchased or developed by engineers in his employ.
It’s only natural he found a home in the land of P. T. Barnum.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 1 2023 22:48 utc | 178

Put an other way, are these chickens coming home to roost or chickens cooked up on order, a French Gladio in the works?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 1 2023 20:49 utc | 121
I saw in the ABC in OZ that France’s Police Union boss is insisting to the government that Police be give the power and aid to quell the riots. Also reported is 40,000 plus police dispatched to the riots. Up from 9000 police. Where did these numbers come from all of a sudden? Btw there is plenty of reporting on the riots in Australia, it won’t be impartial, but far more so than anything on Russia or China.
I agree with you that it looks like these riots are being fuelled for the purposes of imposing martial law, as is happening in different ways across the neoliberal world. That is not to say there is no grassroots uprising at all or that the government will be successful. Macron is truly a fascist little Napolean only he is at war with his own people.

Posted by: K | Jul 1 2023 22:55 utc | 180

badjoke: I can’t imagine how else Musk could’ve gotten into Stanford! With his Backpfeifengesicht he certainly couldn’t have Lewinsky’d his way into Stanford.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 1 2023 23:02 utc | 182

As for Twitter, Had a Chrome extension called “Breakthrough Twitter Login Wall” which by-passed the login prompt and went directly to posting. But now the extension no longer works. I click on a twitter link and go to Twitter login dialog. Hopefully someone will come along with another extension to avoid that login prompt.
I tried similar extension for Mozilla, and no luck.
Figure that Musk is trying to force people to become members of Twitter to read any posting.

Posted by: Erelis | Jul 1 2023 23:10 utc | 184

I just read Simplicius latest article…I call bullshit on most of it…It’s not that his facts are wrong – when he’s printing facts and not the latest Twitter rumor – but that his interpretations are all over the place.
He spends much of the article cramming in as much crap from Western media as he can. If I want to listen to the ravings of the Western media, I’ll visit Western Web sites.
Biggest problem: this statement:
“In light of such rumors, the decision to deploy Wagner to Belarus begins to look increasingly strategic.”
Bullshit. There was no “decision to deploy Wagner to Belarus”. Anyone who can provide ANY link to ANY Russian senior official who has said this, please do so. You can’t. It doesn’t exist.
Here is the sort of “news” about that you can read on the Web today (highlighting is mine):
Ukraine Recap: Wagner Forces Said to Be Regrouping in Belarus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-01/russia-ukraine-wagner-latest-news-july-1-2023

Fighters from the Wagner mercenary group may be about to regroup en masse in Belarus, according to reports from the Associated Press and US analysts at the Institute for the Study of War. Satellite images show hundreds of large tents set up over the past week at a previously abandoned base in Asipovichy, about 150 miles north of the Ukrainian border, ISW said, adding that the militia forces will reportedly operate out of three field camps in Belarus.
Ukrainian military commanders met Saturday at the Rivne nuclear power plant to assess possible threats to the site and hear a report on the operational situation on the Belarusian border, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Telegram. As many as 8,000 Wagner fighters may be deployed in Belarus, a Ukrainian border guard official told local media.

Complete bullshit. “Hundreds of tents” means probably no more than 2,000 troops, which is probably the lot that followed Prigozhin into Russia and could serve as trainers for the Belarus army. Or the entire report could be complete bullshit. Give me a legitimate – I stress LEGITIMATE – Russian source that confirms this. Lukashenko already said they could have an abandoned base, after previously denying the bullshit reports – which continue to be quoted today – about Belarus building bases.
Also see my comments above to Crooke article about what Wagner would be capable of doing in Belarus if they did indeed move there in full strength. Which I remind everyone has not been stated by anyone in Russia, and that the bulk of the Wagner forces are to be integrated into the Russian regular army, which will take weeks or months to complete.
Second, he continues to think this war will easily stretch into next year just because it will start raining again in October. So Russia has at least four months left to make a big offensive, which he thinks won’t happen. I continue to believe that this “everyone will be immobile” in winter is bullshit. Others have said that in WWII there were big offensives conducted in winter. The fact that Ukraine didn’t launch its offensive until now proves nothing. The fact that Russia didn’t launch an offensive – despite Macgregor’s presumption which he now admits was wrong – last winter proves nothing. It is already established that Russia prefers its “ground and pound” approach.
That says absolutely nothing about what happens when the Ukrainian army runs out of ammunition and people, which, based on the casualty rates I’ve estimated previously here, is likely to be precisely within those four months, give or take a couple months.
Now as to the ZPP. I call bullshit on everything being reported about this from both sides. We’ve been hearing about a “false flag” since before the war started. None has occurred yet. The IAEA has people on the ground, they are reporting nothing but that everything is calm, there is no “mining” or any of that crap. As someone above noted, if the Ukrainians want to blow up a nuclear plant, they have several under their control that they can choose from.
I see this whole ZPP business as just another Ukrainian propaganda campaign, supported by the West, to keep flinging shit at Russia to demonize Russia to the electorates in the West. All this reporting in his article about “Ukraine preparing for a nuclear incident” is either 1) an intent to blow up one of their own nuclear plants while deflecting everyone to the ZPP plant, or 2) just part of the propaganda campaign against Russia.
He spends a lot of time on “secret negotiations”, entirely from the Western side. It’s all bullshit, so why bother?
He says:

Russia does not have enough troops to go “all out” in major blitzkrieg attacks, particularly if it’s true that Shoigu plans to use the 150k+ newly mobilized troops as a reserve army.

So 500-750,000 troops aren’t enough for a “blitzkrieg attack”? Again ignoring what happens when Ukraine runs out of ammo? Can’t these people link two thoughts together to make a conclusion? And what does “150K newly mobilized troops” mean? What happened to the 370,000 they mobilized in the fall? This is bullshit.
Yet he’s willing to spend a ton of time on Poland building a huge army with 1,000 tanks and half a million men ready to invade Ukraine AND Belarus all at once! All of which is utter bullshit propaganda from the West intended to scare Russia and reassure the West’s electorate that the West can defend against and defeat Russia.
Good luck with that, West!
I’m unimpressed again with this article.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2023 23:14 utc | 186

Posted by: kupkee | Jul 1 2023 22:59 utc | 185
defense against what exactly? defense against the US losing its preeminent position in the world. you just keep buying into the bs. The US “defensive umbrella” just kept Europe in fealty to the US. and Europe did spend a lot at NATO direction. look at all the arms, no matter how useless, Europe is sending to Ukraine. In defense of Europe?? I don’t think so.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 1 2023 23:17 utc | 188

TASS tells us: “CIA Director William Burns called Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin this week to tell him that the US had nothing to do with the mutiny attempt by the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), The Wall Street Journal said on Friday citing its sources.”
It doesn’t confirm Naryshkin received such a call, just that the WSJ said the CIA said. As Lavrov and others have stated, since CIA is one of the root causes of the current situation all that followed from the 2014 Coup is the responsibility of those that organized it–period. As with the crime of Aggressive War, all the crimes that follow its enactment result from it thus making the initiators culpable. So, once again, the CIA and its mouthpiece have lied yet again.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2023 23:32 utc | 190

Figure that Musk is trying to force people to become members of Twitter to read any posting.
Posted by: Erelis | Jul 1 2023 23:10 utc | 188
This is a typical capitalist tactic. Anybody using twitter is an active participant.

Posted by: dh | Jul 1 2023 23:37 utc | 192

H@ck 190 / I’m unimpressed again with this article.
Simplicius here.
I’m weeping. Body racked by waves of inconsolable tears.
All that writing and yet Hack is unimpressed.
Woe, woe is me.

Posted by: Sad Sad Simp | Jul 1 2023 23:40 utc | 194

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 1 2023 23:22 utc | 193
Not sure if disagreeing with something i said or agreeing, but it seems to be what I was saying.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2023 23:44 utc | 196

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 1 2023 23:58 utc | 201
To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 2 2023 0:04 utc | 198

@sln2002
No doubt. Although, are you sure that wasn’t Abraham Lincoln?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Jul 2 2023 0:08 utc | 200