Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 05, 2023

Ukraine Changes War Tactic To One That Will Cause It More Losses

After a month of failed attempts to reach the Russian defense lines the Ukrainian side is stuck. Its forces are unable to even cross the security zone in front of the Russian lines. The long promoted counter-offensive, launched to to pressure from Washington and NATO, has undoubtedly failed. As it has caused enormous losses with no substantial gains the Ukrainian army is now changing its tactic.

Yesterday the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, tweeted in English and Russian:

At this stage of active hostilities, Ukraine’s Defense Forces are fulfilling the number one task – the maximum destruction of manpower, equipment, fuel depots, military vehicles, command posts, artillery and air defense forces of the russian army. The last few days have been particularly fruitful. Now the war of destruction is equal to the war of kilometers. More destroyed means more liberated. The more effective the former, the more the latter. We are acting calmly, wisely, step by step.

bigger

Overnight the Ukrainian army fired more missiles on Donetz city and into the Belgograd and Kursk regions of Russia.

Attritional warfare is of course what Russia has practiced over the last twelve month by systematically destroying Ukrainian forces, especially artillery and weapon supplies along the front line as well as deep within the Ukraine. When both sides commit to attrition warfare, like in World War I, the side with more resources will usually win. In this conflict that side is without doubt the Russian one.

The Ukrainian leadership is in deep denial of this fact:

Clash Report @clashreport - 9:12 UTC · Jul 5, 2023

Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine:

The counteroffensive is going according to plan. The command assures that Bakhmut will be liberated, and the losses of the Russians are 8-10 times higher than the Ukrainian ones.

During the last months the Russian side fired ten times more artillery ammunition than the Ukrainian. Russia also wages a dedicated counter-battery mission that is killing Ukrainian artillery systems.

In modern warfare artillery is causing about three quarter of all losses. The real number of killed and wounded on the Ukrainian side is thereby about 10 times higher than on the Russian side. The first time I wrote about this was in May 2022. The theme continued to December and more recently.

Syrsky will likely know this but he has to lie to not push his troops morale below its freezing point.

For real attrition warfare the Ukrainian army would have to retreat to well build defense lines and to then try to hold off whatever the Russians decide to throw at them. There is no sign yet that Ukraine is doing that.

Posted by b on July 5, 2023 at 11:54 UTC | Permalink

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Yes, as Einstein said: Insanity is trying the same thing 10 times and expecting a different result each time. This applies 100% to the Ukis.

Posted by: Tom-Switzerland | Jul 5 2023 12:06 utc | 1

hopefully nothing comes up over all the nuclear power plant baiting by the west

Posted by: leaf | Jul 5 2023 12:14 utc | 2

Indeed, well said, but remember: from the Western side, the point is not for Ukraine to "win," but to make Russia bleed. If the Ukrainians can't breach the Russian defensive lines, they can surely cause a lot of pain with carefully targeted long range missile strikes. If Ukraine were to step up attacks on Russia proper, that would hurt Russia, but Russia can't really retaliate because the Western elites could care less about Ukraine.

One possible (underline "possible") strategy is for Ukraine to cause so much pain to Russia that Russia is goaded into a "big arrow" offensive to stop the Ukrainian strikes, and then the Ukrainians on the defensive could have more luck hitting vulnerable exposed concentrated Russian forces.

Hard to say how this will play out, of course, but never forget that Ukraine is not fighting like a normal nation at war; it's a sacrificial punching bag used as a launch pad to strike Russia.

Posted by: TG | Jul 5 2023 12:19 utc | 3

@ b.

For real attrition warfare the Ukrainian army would have to retreat to well build defense lines and to then try to hold off whatever the Russians decide to through at them. There is no sign yet that Ukraine is doing that.

Yes, true that, but there is no sign that RF is moving hard onto Ukrainians, yet. First Ukrainian entrenched lines are about 20-30 km away from the current front-lines, meaning a huge chunk of land irretrievably lost to Russians.
It is just too much fog atm. around the whole battlespace.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 12:21 utc | 4

As long as Russia can keep the fighting in the Eastern regions of Ukraine, it has a huge logistical advantage; its supply lines are short, whereas the Ukrainians are obliged to ship materiel across the country all the way from their Western border.

Zelenskyy's focus on "liberating" Russian-occupied territory - at the expense of manpower - has been great for Russia's strategy of focussing on destroying Ukraine's "militants".

How long can this appalling slaughter be maintained?

Posted by: Observer | Jul 5 2023 12:26 utc | 5

I think the Ukies recognize battering themselves and their wunderwaffe against Russian defenses is fruitless so maybe the Artemovsk strategy that did result in Wagner casualties is what they are defaulting to. It is in line with the Western desire to bleed Russia dry. I also understand that's why their regime is being relentless at silencing dissenting voices because this resistance is pure evil and insanity. Maybe they have some hopium left that more wunderwaffen will save they day.

I weep for all the graves on both sides. Such a stupid, avoidable, loss of precious human life.

Posted by: mtw | Jul 5 2023 12:26 utc | 6


https://www.focus.de/kultur/musik/ukrainer-melovin-sang-loblied-auf-faschisten-muenchner-csd-in-erklaerungsnot_id_198172082.html

Homoglobos & Transglobos invited ukronazi to perform at an event with Bandera songs

what has been reached with lvads slow soft SMO ?

1) denazification
More ukros adapted nazi ideology than ever in their existing history
2) Demilitarization
Ukros have now more and modern equipment than ever before
3) Dedollarization
USD remains stabil and nobody wants to miss it
German Stock index DAX has reaches highest level! Higher than before Corona
4) Western Economics
The prices for fuel, Food, heating, .... re back on before corona level
5) Territory
Only 17% of Ukraine Territory controlled by Russian Forces
Such high blood price among Russian soldiers for only17%!?
I know I know its not about territory BLABLABLA
6) Shelling of Russian territory
Ukros shelling Doneck and other Russian cities more than ever before with modern western equipment
More Russian civilian victims than ever before
7) Terrorism
More Terrorist attacks by okra nazis than ever before
Whats russia doing?
Whining instead of paying back and taking out the responsible nazis

Calculation 1)-7) = total failure!
Instead of SMO soft & slow a full scale war would bring better results in few weeks with much less Russian victims

Do u really believe Stalin, churchilrosevelt would successfully denazify German population from Nazi virus with sloe soft SMO a la Putin 5D chess master?

The SMO is the most ridiculous and kamikaze operation I ve ever heard and seen

Reminds me kamikaze Milosevic who destroyed Serbia with his style of SMO

Posted by: ratko.mladic | Jul 5 2023 12:27 utc | 7

@ Tom #1 "Insanity is trying the same thing 10 times and expecting a different result each time."

There are rare exeptions to that law. Like that one time a neigbour was trying to start his car and after half an hour and countless failed attempts, I felt irritated and got out with the intention to explain him this law and you know what, the damn car started!

Posted by: RON | Jul 5 2023 12:30 utc | 8

For Ukraine its about to keep control about a piece of land, but that have to be ethnical clean. No minorities or cultural difference anymore. Its like Poland became from the ethnic most divers to the most homogenized now. Their business model will be poke the bear and get paid for that from Washington, Berlin and London.
Just Russia will not accept that. They hunt their enemies down till the bunker under their capital.
Hunger games.

Posted by: rico rose | Jul 5 2023 12:34 utc | 9

Danilov tweeted in English and Ukrainian, not Russian. Well but it's very similar.

Posted by: Klaus | Jul 5 2023 12:39 utc | 10

I don't know if anybody reads this or cares but I just wanted to quickly voice my appreciation again for b and most of the people here. It really helps to stay informed and ... well ... sane in a sea of manipulated information.

I've noticed a bit of a shift when I talk to some "normal" people here in Germany. Some of them who a year ago would have fervently defended the West as the good guys and the Russians and Chinese as evil are a bit more hesitant when they talk. Often I still hear something about how the Russians are evil, or that the Chinese are "not better than us", but there is more concern now or ... I don't know, maybe they are battling internally with all of their cognitive dissonance.
It can be really frustrating, maybe also for our esteemed host, but pushing back against the most effective propaganda apparatus of our time - as slow as it is - might actually be working. Please keep it up!

Posted by: Roland | Jul 5 2023 12:41 utc | 11

@ ratko.mladic | Jul 5 2023 12:27 utc | 7

You are mostly right there, at the surface, regardless of your handle.

The big arrow push opportunity was missed in February-March 2022 and that is a consequence of having the pretty big messy strategy right now.
One could conquer Afghanistan with 130.000 Soviet soldiers, but not Ukraine.

Balkan wars were aimed directly at the civilian population and a wrong goal of ethnic cleansing used for gaining the new territories, while this operation is aimed to protect civilians on both sides, and focused at the enemy's military structure.

Indeed, nobody in the Balkans had any serious military, except Serbia.
Milosevich and your handle-ghost just misused that potential, aiming at the wrong targets. Basically the same what Ukraine is doing ever since.

However, I still believe that RF got their act together rather well, and are running SMO with an impunity now.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 12:49 utc | 12

Boy, if bullshit won wars, these guys would have defeated both Russia & China sometime last year,and everybody else would have been be sudbued already.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 5 2023 12:54 utc | 13

A send money war is all about sacrifice of the them for us to make a buck. Want it to stop? Have Zelenskyy Danilov cookieVicki BlinkinBiden-their-time et al pick up their guns & head to the front - to make a personal sacrifice

Posted by: Sadness | Jul 5 2023 12:56 utc | 14

[email protected] need to blow the ZNPP, with NATO now using long range smart missiles they can attrite the RF forces as easily as the RF does theirs. Bit of a stalemate now, Russia can defend be no liberation offensive, the Ukies can defend but no land return counter-offensive. Best to sit down and talk, Russia will have to deal with the Nazis, the Banderites, NATO and their various hanger ons at a later date, how unfortunate for all those seeking liberation from western fascism in the Ukraine, very sad.

Stick a fork in it folks, it's over, just some residual collateral damage till a jaw jaw date is set.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 13:04 utc | 15

Because of the flimsy armor of the French AMX-10, an entire crew died, said the commander of one of the battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“During artillery shelling, shell fragments pierced the insufficiently strong armor of a French-made AMX-10 light tank - as a result, the ammunition detonated inside, which led to the death of the crew,” he said in a conversation with The Telegraph .

The Ukrainian military noted that the French wheeled tank differs not for the better from the armored vehicles of the Husky model, so he called the decision to use such equipment on the front line "suicide."

Earlier, the Washington Post reported that AMX-10RC armored vehicles were not heavy enough to protect Ukrainian soldiers. And therefore, in battles, they had to be placed behind the military, and not in front.

https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1676573437081313289

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 13:04 utc | 16

Ye Olde Counteroffensive screwed Ye Olde Pooche, so it must be rebranded.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 5 2023 13:05 utc | 17

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 13:04 utc | 17

Nato armored vehicles are made of paper reinforced by chicken wire, no surprise here?

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 13:06 utc | 18

who misses DownSouth's TG updates,

Posted by: Exile | Jul 5 2023 13:08 utc | 19

AussieCossack guy writes that 20k soldiers were lost by Ukr in their not-offensive, so far. That would be at least 2k Russians lost, an unclear number of civilians which are targeted very directly and very often, a large number of buildings and other items of infrastructure destroyed from Belgorod to Donetsk and other regions. They have forced Russia to evacuate civilians from more areas than before. Why would nato stop with such small losses on the proxy side, such good profits, if the war only happens inside Russia? In Kiev, Lvov or Odessa is so peaceful they can open tourism season, invite 50k American soldiers for a good vacation. In Russia they can't walk the street without something exploding (tass.com/politics/1642829, tass.com/emergencies/1642653, tass.com/politics/1642939, tass.com/emergencies/1642817).

Posted by: rk | Jul 5 2023 13:18 utc | 20

[email protected] with impunity, you mean they have been pussy footing up till now, what were all those long forgotten long range strikes on power centres, military repair centres, military training centres.....year and a half later, Kherson and Zap Oblats still well under Ukie control.
Russia border towns still get shelled heavily every other day, and the Donbas, sorry mate, bit of a fucking joke now that NATO is stepping up more. Oh, and when negotiations start, how much will Russia give up, what price will they pay for a fragile peace where Ukie will still shell and attack and Russia will sit on its hands while border regions get shelled regularly and Russia, like, 2014 to 2022 does noting, and really if the SMO shows anything, bs about saving lives, shit they could have shipped everyone out on any rail car, they still run, on time, well maybe an odd delay for a dead cow on the tracks, but commerce still flows, money is still made......and the dead, still just as fucking dead.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 13:20 utc | 21

Posted by: ratko.mladic | Jul 5 2023 12:27 utc | 7

Which said nothing that I find convincing, and apparently the Russians don't either. I'm grateful that they're taking on the highly desirable task of poking effective rods through the spokes of the wheels of decades of destructive Western world domination.

Perhaps you're simply ignorant of the wider scope of that task. Stick around here and you might be able to educate yourself. Meanwhile, they're the ones with actual skin in the game.

Posted by: StirThePot | Jul 5 2023 13:24 utc | 22

For all those armchair generals schooled in rocket science, if Russia does not get full surrender from the Ukraine and full capitulation from NATO and they have to sit down to negotiate.....they lost, period.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 13:24 utc | 23

"In modern warfare artillery is causing about three quarter of all losses. The real number of killed and wounded on the Ukrainian side is thereby about 10 times higher than on the Russian side."

While qualitatively, this is correct, quantitatively, there is a low of diminishing returns. With fewer shells, they are typically aimed more carefully. Extreme example is machine gun vs sniper gun. And from Military Summary we can learn that Ukraine still can concentrate enough artillery fire to repel most Russian attacks. So the ratio may be much smaller. Additionally, Russia uses fewer shells than before, I am not sure about "10 times more shells".

Still, in historical analogy terms, Ukraine has the strategy of "army of impressed peasants", disposable, while Russia uses "citizens army" with much more stress on force preservation. Ukrainian strategy would not be sustainable without massive aid as it empties the economy from workers, especially "mechanically inclined", who could produce food, equipment, construction (repairs!) etc. Also, "impressed peasants" mode requires a much higher degree of repressions that, historically, leads to a breakdown after few years (or sooner?).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 5 2023 13:27 utc | 24

[email protected] out the obvious doesn't make you smarter than everyone else, they just are not paying attention...like,they can't see the bombs for all the shrapnel.....good call though.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 13:31 utc | 25

Every single day, by their words and deeds, the Ukrainian govt confirms the absolute necessity of Russia to conduct the SMO until all SMO objectives are fully achieved.

Posted by: JustTruth | Jul 5 2023 13:34 utc | 26

Posted by: rk | Jul 5 2023 13:18 utc | 21

Oh please. Spare is your BS.

There are no commercial flights into Kiev, and there is a level 4 travel advisory from the US state dept on travel to Ukraine.

The only tourists are US government officials eager to schmooze with Zelensky in return for cash.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 5 2023 13:51 utc | 27

One does wonder how many male ukranian infantry units are produced anually.

Posted by: Tapio | Jul 5 2023 13:52 utc | 28

"the side with more resources will usually win. In this conflict that side is without doubt the Russian one."

The West has more resources than does Russia.

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 29

One does wonder how many male ukranian infantry units are produced anually.

Posted by: Tapio | Jul 5 2023 13:52 utc | 29

Less and less it would seem:

"Ukraine had one of the lowest birth rates on the planet. And then a war broke out," explains Brienna Perelli-Harris, a professor of demography at the University of Southampton who studies fertility rates in Ukraine. She says Ukrainian demographers are projecting the fertility rate could fall as low as 0.55 in 2023, though official statistics are not available.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-rate-russia-war

Posted by: Martina | Jul 5 2023 14:01 utc | 30

NATO wants to keep The Ukrainian Civil War simmering until Spring 2024.

BTW all NATO IFVs have thin armor intended to protect only against light machine gun fire and minor shrapnel. They may look like ‚tanks‘ but they are not.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 5 2023 14:04 utc | 31

The West has more resources than does Russia.

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

Given you believe the above.....

I can offer you a deal on a slightly used.... but profitable bridge....

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 5 2023 14:04 utc | 32

Posted by: RON | Jul 5 2023 12:30 utc | 8

"after half an hour and countless failed attempts, I felt irritated and got out with the intention to explain him this law and you know what, the damn car started!"
================================

Ha ha ha!

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 5 2023 14:04 utc | 33

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

The West has more resources than does Russia.

It's not showing on the battle field. What gives?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 14:05 utc | 34

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

Russia outproduces the whole Nato in primary war categories by very large factors and doesn't yet even break a sweat about it. Now if US genius diplomats manage to get China to help - well, better just dig themselves a grave.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 14:06 utc | 35

"The West has more resources than does Russia."

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

So we are told but I would like to hear a little more exactly how.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 5 2023 14:06 utc | 36

@Piotr Berman 25

as to the the two opposing armies:

What do we know about the soldiers?

How many professionals?
How many conscripts?

And where are conscripts being forced?

25 years ago I did have contact to RU deserters from the Red Army, who had fled shortly before it all dissolved.

Is the Russian Army a place I want to be if I do not aim for a military career?
(The answer for the AFU is evident.)

How is the ratio of "patriotic" volunteers serving on both sides?


Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 14:07 utc | 37

For all those armchair generals schooled in rocket science, if Russia does not get full surrender from the Ukraine and full capitulation from NATO and they have to sit down to negotiate.....they lost, period.

So in the event of a tie does the war go to extra time and penalties?

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 5 2023 14:10 utc | 38

The problem, that Ukraine is facing, is similar to that the Russian had before. Under a multi domain threat one cannot concentrate enough troops to gain sufficient impact. How will Ukraine, and even Russia, collect enough troops to start an offensive action. Whenever more than a few soldiers are present on one spot they are in risc of long range fire.

As long, as air space is contested, nobody could launch deep battle operations without risking high casualties. A few combat vehicles are no threat for russian fortifications. And any force, big enough to penetrate the defence lines, are a highly attractive target.

Posted by: Gast | Jul 5 2023 14:11 utc | 39

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-russia-lost-half-combat-effectiveness-tanks-counter-offensive-2023-7?r=US&IR=T

You have to wonder if anyone believes this stuff? Sadly I think "they" do.

So let me get this right - Ukraine has 10% of the firepower of the Russians but is able to inflict losses on the RF at 8X to 10X its own? Has done so now for 450 days. And at the moment it is advancing through minefields with no air support? These UAF guys must be supermen. 80 to 100 times more effective than Russian soldiers. I can believe that....

The latest thing I read was that they had changed tactics to dismounted attacks. Yup that will work. Advance maybe 60 km on foot through multiple defence lines and with limited fire support. Cut off the Crimea and Russia will collapse. Maybe special NATO magic eleven boots will not detonate mines.

I genuinely feel sorry for the guys in the UAF. They are being sent to the slaughter. It is about time they realised who their real enemy is.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 5 2023 14:12 utc | 40

"As long, as air space is contested, nobody could launch deep battle operations without risking high casualties. A few combat vehicles are no threat for russian fortifications. And any force, big enough to penetrate the defence lines, are a highly attractive target."

Posted by: Gast | Jul 5 2023 14:11 utc | 40

The good old steamroller would take some ten years to reach the Polish border. Completely doable and acceptable.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 5 2023 14:21 utc | 41

Why are the first 50 or so comments of each day's new thread from B predominantly from readers who have not posted before; never or rarely post again; and seem decidedly loopy? Is it that trolls lie in wait for a new thread then pounce first? Has anyone else noticed this phenomenon?

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jul 5 2023 14:28 utc | 42

"The West has more resources than does Russia."

Define "resources".

"Tuck-friendly" toddler swimsuits? Yep, we have 'em and Russia don't, so we got `em beat there.

Uber drivers? Yep! Unemployment in Russia is so low that everyone who wants one has a real job, so no leftovers for shitty lumper/gig work, and thus not as many Uber drivers or nickel-posting trolls.

That's is what you were talking about, right?

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 5 2023 14:30 utc | 43

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 5 2023 14:12 utc | 41

I'd expect AFU combat effectiveness could have been on par in the first month, or few weeks.

Scott Ritter says AFU initial army (the army consisting of Donbass veterans and original equipment, with no external input or conscription) was mostly destroyed during June 2022. Then they had enough conscription to buy some time to build a new Nato trained reserve army of 30-40k or so for the attacks on Kherson and Balakleya-Izyum. They also had a large injection of Nato mercenaries to support them. The other fronts they managed to more or less hold by the large amount of conscription, and then even conscript motivation was still much higher.

Today, per Lvov military commissioner in charge of conscription efforts, 80 % of AFU conscripts come as a result of raids on the street and private houses, which also requires increased disciplinary measures on the front to prevent people abandoning positions or defecting. That is, Azov and Kraken detachments shooting them in the back. The motivation and number of Nato mercenaries has also plateaued and is in decline. That is probably due to the war becoming more industrial style, stationary which Nato is losing and the mercs can easily see the shifted odds.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 14:31 utc | 44

@ sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 13:20 utc | 22

I agree there, but what I meant by "impunity" is that they are able to and pussy foot and hurt hard at the same time and whenever they feel the need.
As it was shown since February '22. RF lured NATO into the fight, rather successfully, but under their terms, and not NATO's. Yes, the bloody nose from time to time was anticipated and is somehow required.
Did you notice that NATO's only claimed partial success was blowing up the 1 Nord Stream pipe out of 2 and an obscure 'Moskva' ship sinking, and that still remains to be confirmed? Everything else failed, or never tried again.
SMO is a lure that leads to a hot oil pan.

And I do agree - at the end NATO must surrender, but it will try everything until it does the right thing. RF anticipated that as well, I am sure of it.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 14:33 utc | 45

Jacques Attali said to Vovan and Lexus that "it is necessary to get rid of Poutine asap."
BH Lévy said to the same that "Navalny could succeed to Poutine."

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 5 2023 14:33 utc | 46

@ The Dolphin | Jul 5 2023 14:28 utc | 42

They come through Twitter.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 14:34 utc | 47

Posted by: rk | Jul 5 2023 13:18 utc | 20

AussieCossack guy writes that 20k soldiers were lost by Ukr in their not-offensive, so far.
==================================

Let's say that's correct.
And let's say they burned through 5 billion USD for that extra-heavy engagement period.
That comes to $250,000 MIC profits for each KIA.
Of course this doesn't count extra profits for the even larger numbers of critically and seriously wounded.

For the profit-making class in this conflict, things are going very well, very well indeed.
And of course Russia has most of its military hardware and suchlike supplied by private corporations too, aka 'oligarchs.' They are doing well too.

This thing is going to keep on keepin' on until there are enough interests NOT in the profit-making sectors to insist that it end. Such interests don't appear to be in evidence right now.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 5 2023 14:34 utc | 48

@marcjf 40

thx

shouldn´t it be easy to counter this by stating different numbers?
I mean this is not some top secret issue.

There are variables but within sensible limits.

Next step would be, were I a reporter, to confront them with both sets of numbers and ask for explanation (as to why US officials even officially aknowledge the increased strength of RU forces.)

Since the statements don´t match.

Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 14:35 utc | 49

@ libegafra | Jul 5 2023 14:33 utc | 46

Jacques Attali said to Vovan and Lexus that "it is necessary to get rid of Poutine asap."

That is sad, from once being a very bright mind amongst the murky soup of, a way back then, European politicians. People do change.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 14:41 utc | 50

It is interesting to see an open recognition of failure of the initial offensive.

"Now the war of destruction is equal to the war of kilometers. More destroyed means more liberated." Danilov

That is a pretty astounding logic. I'd be astounded if it convinced anybody.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 5 2023 14:41 utc | 51

I see Sean the leprechaun has been posting furiously all morning.

All Sound and Fury, but little or no substance.


Quality over quantity, Sean lad!

Don't be gettin' yourself carpal tunnel syndrome, typing a load of shite!

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jul 5 2023 14:50 utc | 52

Posted by: Tapio | Jul 5 2023 13:52 utc | 28

Perhaps you meant anally?

Posted by: Morongobill | Jul 5 2023 15:02 utc | 53


Posted by: LightYearsFromHome

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 4 2023 22:37 utc | 114

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ukraine-open-thread-2023-159/comments/page/2/#comments

It'd be better not to connect the two issues, though it's done very often.

From an English perspective the response here to Covid was extremely good in some respects, sub-optimal in others. About what you'd expect, given what was known at the time and where we started out from. Leave it to the post mortem to decide if there were any serious mistakes made. I'll be particularly interested to know why Denmark and Germany managed a better response than us but even there, I don't expect the post mortem will come up with anything we can't already guess.

What it most certainly was not was any sort of cunning conspiracy of the state apparatus against the people. Maybe politicians running around in circles trying to cope with something unforeseen, but most certainly not a conspiracy.

The episode served as a vehicle for many who are dissatisfied with our politicians to express that dissatisfaction. It spawned a whole lot of off the wall speculation. Speculation, incidentally, that by association discredits those who'd like to see an impartial post mortem conducted - and renders that post mortem more difficult.

The objection to Western policy in the Ukraine, and for me the objection to HMG's foreign policy with regard to Ukraine, is not of that sort. There are solid grounds for believing that, as with the Iraqi WMD and as with the Syrian "moderate rebels", HMG and the other Western governments did mislead us as to the facts of the Ukrainian conflict and continue to do so.

Examination of that is not assisted by associating such examination with off the wall Covid conspiracy theories.

................................

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jul 5 2023 11:33 utc | 239

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ukraine-open-thread-2023-159/comments/page/3/#comments

Talking of examination I'm hoping, as I believe you are, that more will be learned of the period just before and immediately after the start of the SMO. Many here are well up on the details of that period and I expect like me you're hoping to be able to put in your dropbox the material we're waiting for them to provide.

More confirmatory detail and confirmatory background is needed but I believe that the recognition of the two Republics and the subsequent military action was not a response to general pressures from NATO as such as Mearsheimer insist.

Those general NATO pressures - stationing of missiles, large scale troop deployments near the Russian border etc - do of course set the scene for this conflict. But it's obvious that the SMO has not reduced those NATO pressures. On the contrary it has intensified them and it was predictable that it would do so.

In fact if the Russians need to reduce those NATO pressures they would not need to do so by military action. They would do so by counter-sanctions. That is the position now and it was the position at the start of the SMO. No need to invade Ukraine or even Poland to get rid of missile bases too close. Merely turn off a few taps.

We now know - to many of us it was obvious before - that Russia cannot be defeated by the military means currently available to NATO and it cannot be defeated by economic war. Nor can it be defeated by attempts to destabilise the country internally.

That was obvious to the Russians in February 2022. But "obvious" is not a dead certainty. The SMO was not a risk free course of action. In particular it could have had the effect, and for a certain time seemed to have that effect, of jeopardising relations with countries the Russians wished to expand their trade with. And who is to say that the West could not have found some way of making the sanctions, particularly the financial sanctions, bite far deeper than they did?

So the SMO was not needed as a means of relieving NATO pressure (the Mearsheimer thesis) and it was foreseeable that it would intensify that pressure. Foreseeable, maybe probable, risks were associated with it. And, as with that Covid episode, it is incorrect to look back at any historical event and argue because the result was as it was, that result was inevitable. For the Russians, the balance of risk, of gain and loss as foreseeable at the time, was against undertaking the SMO unless it was unavoidably necessary to do so.

And Putin himself is known to be cautious and risk averse. So what made him, on February 21st 2022, give the go-ahead to starting the process that was to lead to the SMO. We can be pretty sure that by that late date his Generals had already drawn up contingency plans for the SMO. We can surmise that by that date he was already under internal pressure to act. But what made him finally take the decision?

He had no choice. It was the military imperatives on the LoC at that time that forced his hand. As Strobe Talbot wrote at the time, we finally had him cornered.

Had the Kiev forces got into the Donbass not only would they have caused mayhem. They would have been most difficult to dislodge.

And the LDNR forces could not have held them back unassisted, or even partially assisted as they had been earlier.

Not only that. The Putin administration must have fallen. A hundred and forty million angry Russians would have been saying "Why didn't you stop them when you had the chance?" He would have had no answer.

Cornered indeed. The SMO was a justified pre-emptive attack to avert just such a disaster. It was not "unprovoked", that word used so often to describe the SMO by the Western politicians and media. It was deliberately provoked, and that to "corner" Putin.

It'd be good to have the experts here looking at all that for your dropbox.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 5 2023 15:02 utc | 54

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 29

"The West has more resources than does Russia."

Upon what do you base this specious claim?

Posted by: Morongobill | Jul 5 2023 15:05 utc | 55

Morongobill @53

I'll be right back. I gotta hit the toilet and squeeze out a Ukro Nazi.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 5 2023 15:06 utc | 56

may be someone can explain to me what the fuck this NEWSWEEK lead story is about:

"Exclusive: The CIA's Blind Spot about the Ukraine War
By William M. Arkin On 07/05/23"

https://www.newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html

A prop piece for/by the Agency now? Why?

btw my favourite phrase in it:

"Since the end of the Cold War, Poland and the United States, through the CIA, have established particularly warm relations. Poland hosted a CIA torture "black site" in the village of Stare Kiejkuty during 2002-2003."

Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 15:07 utc | 57

"the side with more resources will usually win. In this conflict that side is without doubt the Russian one."

The West has more resources than does Russia.

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

Please define resources. As far as nuclear weapons are concerned, for example, Russia is way ahead of the combined West.

Population? The combined West may be ahead on that count, but how many of that population are volunteering to be cannon fodder? How many fail the basic requirements for joining the army?

I would not be surprised if Russia is ahead as far as engineers are concerned. I just read today that in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (that's a component-state of Germany) the average high school student failed passing grades in Mathematics. Again, just like in 2021. They then retroactively lowered the requirements, and raised the grades for all students in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. To the joy of students in the rest of Germany who took the same examinations but whose grades will not be likewise adjusted.

Posted by: Martina | Jul 5 2023 15:08 utc | 58

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 5 2023 14:10 utc | 38

So in the event of a tie does the war go to extra time and penalties?

The US' objective is a world in a perpetual state of war, eternally ready for the plunder of Capital:

"Sustainable warfare" - Ghost In The Shell SAC_2045:

The Sustainable War is a concept and event in Ghost in the Shell: SAC_2045. It was launched in 2042 by the American Empire under AI Code 1A84 in cooperation with the other members of the G4 (the Russian Federation, China, and the European Union), and officially classified war as an industry to boost the global economy. In effect, the G4 nations went to war with each other in a "sustainable" manner managed by AIs: fighting deliberately avoided damaging major cities and essential infrastructure, mercenaries, and autonomous war machines were heavily used, and the goal of most battles was to destroy enemy structures, vehicles, and equipment while taking reasonable measures to capture rather than fatally harm human combatants when possible. In other words, the conflict would be sustainable as almost all losses could, in theory, be perpetually replaced by the military-industrial complex. This idealized vision of warfare nonetheless displaced populations and turned smaller cities and towns, such as Palm Springs, California, into battlefields.

Following the Synchronized Global Default in 20442024, the Sustainable War became the only way for the G4 nations to keep their economies functional. The Default also created countless destitute raiders, who risked their lives amid the Sustainable War to eke out a living or wreak vengeance against those they blamed for their poverty, the "one-percenter" elites who continued enriching themselves through the war.

What is Mosaic Warfare?


It’s a disjointed, multi-domain approach that runs counter to the belief that only a coordinated, uniformly-trained, smoothly-functioning fighting force would be the more powerful opponent to face. Like the tiles in a mosaic, the individual platforms of each domain – air, land, maritime, cyber, space, and so on – would together create a larger picture of broad and overpowering strength, while simultaneously making it hard for the enemy to pin down one way to fight against such a confusing, mixed bag of an opponent.

A product conceived and put forth by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Mosaic Warfare concept posits that there is a benefit to being small, agile, fluid, and scalable. In the world of mosaic warfare, instead of always depending on building the ultimate fighter jet or biggest submarine or most accurate missiles, it can be just as powerful to take simpler, smaller platforms, network them together, then have them interpret the battle in their own ways that make the most of their advantages. In this theory, enemies can be caught off guard and innovations like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or ground robots can become part of the fight sooner.

Perhaps this is what lies beyond the distruction of the AFU as a conventional army ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 15:19 utc | 59

Possible cholera outbreaks in occupied cities of Kherson Oblast per the Kyiv Independent.

"An increased number of intestinal infections, possibly cholera, has been noted in occupied Skadovsk and Henichesk in Kherson Oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 5."

Posted by: Grampa Mike | Jul 5 2023 15:19 utc | 60

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 15:19 utc | 59

There we go, that's what happens when you post drunk.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 15:21 utc | 61

thanks b...

i see the neo nazis lobbed some bombs into the settlement next to donetsk last night.. this was not a military target either.. i guess they are running out of options and not getting any results...

---------------

@ English Outsider | Jul 5 2023 15:02 utc | 54

good post.. thanks! i appreciate you highlighting the post from @ Ingolf Eide | Jul 5 2023 11:33 utc | 239 which was in turn highlighting richard steven hacks post on the prigozhin affair connected to syria and etc. etc... at any rate - i appreciate your analysis and it is in sync with my own... the rationale for this SMO was indeed as you've articulated it... not sure how it ends, but it will end, of that i am sure..

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2023 15:32 utc | 62

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 14:31 utc | 44 "Scott Ritter says"

Scott Ritter says a lot of stuff, but his track record on pronouncements isn't that great.

It think the casualty claims on both sides are off base. Early on if you looked at a lot of the pictures of the shelling when the Russians where claimed to firing off 10x as many as Ukraine, the pictures depicted a huge amount ground impacts instead of air bursts.

One is much more likely to cause casualties than the other.

As to how long things can go on, didn't Russia and Germany both take losses in the 20+ percent of their males aged 18 to 45 or so? How long will it take to get to that level in Ukraine, given the West continues to send weapons?

Posted by: Ed2 | Jul 5 2023 15:33 utc | 63

I made a rather sarcy and flippant comment earlier. But thank you to those that responded. In reality I believe the UAF is still a large and broadly effective force but is rapidly degrading, and the opposite is occurring with the RF. What I still find difficult to understand is the lack of critical reasoning amongst so called experts. It is blindingly obvious that Ukraine must be losing a multiple of Russian losses and has been for most of this war, but we keeping being told the opposite. Now I expect the MSM to get this wrong. But professionals should know better. And I now think that they have convinced themselves by their own propaganda. They must inhabit a strange world. Though I think this also is institutionalised group think, and it is career limiting to question the narrative.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 5 2023 15:33 utc | 64

@ Exile | Jul 5 2023 13:08 utc | 19

i miss down south updates.. yes...

@ marcjf | Jul 5 2023 14:12 utc | 40 quote :

"I genuinely feel sorry for the guys in the UAF. They are being sent to the slaughter. It is about time they realised who their real enemy is."

thanks marcif.. you make a lot of great commentary and i share your viewpoint here..

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2023 15:35 utc | 65

People bring up that the west has more resources and I agree but if they used them more than now and it looked like Russia wouldnt make it in the long run Russia has explained that they will go nuclear when their existence is threatened. And those ruling the west think Russia is serious about it.
From more explicit statements it seems the UK might be a plausible target.
The current situation is an improvement for the hegemon compared with peace and world wide development.
I think Michael Hudsons predictions about a 20 years war were taken from his inside knowledge just reading what the thinktanks published.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 5 2023 15:37 utc | 66

@marcjf 64

yep.

After all for whom does it truly matter whether they know and pronounce the ugly truth?
Only a fraction of those experts are truly in positions of responsibility.

All the others are being paid to deliver reports that seem to satisfy the needs of some superiors.

Eventually nobody is responsible for anything. They all are delegating to the upper echelon.
Its mind boggling how much academia has corrupted its own scholarly rules.

With any other issue but Russia such behaviour were considered deeply insultig to their establishment.

Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 15:40 utc | 67

When one understands that the objective of those who control the West is to depopulate Ukraine, everything makes good sense. Ideally, they would have preferred Crimea. That is why they cannot forgive Putin for grabbing Crimea from their grasping hands.

Where do you think the Jews of Palestine are going to move to when the time comes to leave? It should be pretty obvious that when the USA goes down the drain, Israel is stuffed.

But I am sure they will be able to find "Dead Sea Scrolls" at the appropriate moment.

BTW, independent scientists were never allowed to examine the "Dead Sea Scrolls". Many of them are believed to have been hiding for centuries in the loft of an ancient synagogue in Cairo. 😊


https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/israel-dead-sea-scroll-cave-scli-intl-scn/index.html

Posted by: Alfred (Hurghada) | Jul 5 2023 15:40 utc | 68

what is it with DownSouth?

Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 15:41 utc | 69

[email protected] you saying the expanding grave yards in the Ukraine are fake? Families being asked to take their dead home, that's fake? All the civilians killed these past few days on the Russian side of the border, that's fake. Fake dead shite I suppose.

If one has the capacity to end suffering, do we toy with the dying, what kind of human animal does that? So if Russia had the capacity to end this, outside a mushroom cloud exchange, it should. Does it?

Cheers M


Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 15:41 utc | 70

It's been said ukraine still has about a 100000 assault troops in reserve. Ukrinform is saying ukraine is digging in. I'd say they've decided to wait for a russian offensive. They have enough reserves right now to thwart it but will persist in using small infantry rushes to find russian forces.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 5 2023 15:42 utc | 71

I want every right-wing freak with a militaria fetish to repeat to themselves "In modern warfare artillery is causing about three quarter of all losses" 10 or so times each time they have a thought that glorifies war or the experience of combat. Imagine getting to the front and being immediately blown to shit by an artillery shell fired from over the horizon.

I think, in America, the glorification of war and the reverence for soldiers as so-called "warriors" among the general population, has to do with the fact that the American combat experience for the last thirty years has involved waging war on enemies that are vastly technologically and numerically inferior. Although Jingoism was as innate to the '60s as was anti-war sentiment, it was much harder to maintain that facade when the enemy had air defenses and tank battalions, like the NVA did. And it always shocks Americans when their war machine gets tripped up by jury-rigged air defenses like the kind the Taliban used to down a black hawk in 2012, killing 11 Navy SEALs.

But this same thing goes to Ukraine and Russia boosters, the psychotic nationalists of all countries who want to see their friends and loved ones (or someone else's) eviscerated by war.

Posted by: fnord | Jul 5 2023 15:43 utc | 72

I would not be surprised if Russia is ahead as far as engineers are concerned. I just read today that in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (that's a component-state of Germany) the average high school student failed passing grades in Mathematics. Again, just like in 2021. They then retroactively lowered the requirements, and raised the grades for all students in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. To the joy of students in the rest of Germany who took the same examinations but whose grades will not be likewise adjusted.

Posted by: Martina | Jul 5 2023 15:08 utc | 58

Reminds me of when I volunteered to help with the Chemistry Olympiad in my state (Indiana), where high schools sent their best chemistry students to compete in a test. Of the top ten scorers, one, maybe two were of European descent. The rest were all Chinese Americans. Every year.

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 5 2023 15:44 utc | 73

Arch Bungle@59.... sure hope you're drunk, lots of AI war porn there, l feel sorry for the non combatant carbon fibres that are stuck in they way.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 5 2023 15:46 utc | 74

@concern trolls

Indeed the first half of this particular thread has some head-scratching comments that have no basis in reality whatsoever just a bunch of snarky digs I'm sure that's just meant to raise the ire of regular folks that can see what the real outcome in this war will be. From many published essays with mostly learned writers with real world facts and trends we see that Russia has strengthened immeasurably in ALL areas while the west has been dimminished considerably in ALL areas and 80% of the world can see it.

Case in point-yesterday's comments about Russia's lack of priceless titanium was literally dumb-founded hopium as Russia just captured a titanium rich area of Ukr that increased their reserves considerably. It's going all Russia's way right now.

Posted by: safe | Jul 5 2023 15:47 utc | 75

Once again I think people are not considering the large advantage RU has in the EW sphere. It is to the point that maybe even long range attacks are limited. This is a real strategic advantage.

Posted by: thomas j cahill | Jul 5 2023 15:50 utc | 76

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 5 2023 15:37 utc | 66

People bring up that the west has more resources and I agree but if they used them more than now and it looked like Russia wouldnt make it

This doesn't even make empirical sense.

This is nothing more than a perception.

What resources exactly are we talking?

- Gas? .... No.
- Oil? .... No.
- Steel and Metals?.... No.
- Production Capacity?.... No.
- Nuclear Weapons?.... No.
- Artillery Shells?.... No.
- Tanks?.... No.
- Air defense systems? .... No.
- Rare Earth Metals? .... No.
- Men of Fighting Suitability? .... Marginally.
- Technology? .... Not the tech that counts, just lots of useless doodads.
- Capital? .... Yes, they own the money printers but Money is worthless without the industrial power to convert it into something ...

If the last 16 months have shown us anything it's that all the paper money in the world can't buy more artillery shells than can be manufactured by the factories the West already has.

What then, specifically, are the resources the West has some much more of ?

Do these resources even belong to the West?,

Or are they actually African, Asian, Middle Eastern resources assumed by means of magical accounting tricks to be "Western resources?"

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 15:51 utc | 77

Noted that Stupidly and Bum-Boy Ben are talking up their Polish Partnership. The former appears to know that Polish exiles went to Britain and fought from there. No mention of the Poles who fought alongside Soviet forces, though. Such a surprise.

Posted by: DilNir | Jul 5 2023 15:58 utc | 78

@ ratko.mladic | Jul 5 2023 12:27 utc | 7
.......
Very pessimistic for someone who should thrust Russians by default. And not an appropriate use name of great Serb solder, general Mladic. Obviously war tactics, strategies and modern geopolitics are not your strength. End result is what only counts and you not able to foreseen end result.
During Serbian war against NATO, bosnian muslims and croats, at one poin,t Army of RS holds more than 70% of territory of Herzegovina and Bosnia. War ended with only 49%....for Serbs.
Even "b" tried so many times to explain to people like you that this is Russia's war of attrition against NATO, stupid Ukies are ...just stupid.
Полако јбт.

Posted by: Preki | Jul 5 2023 16:03 utc | 79

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

China has more resources than the west and they aren't stupid enough to allow an imperialist puppet regime on their Russian border, genius.

The fact of China's support was denied by the western media for nearly a year, but it still seems some can't accept it.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 5 2023 16:06 utc | 80

@Tom-Switzerland #1

Yes, as Einstein said: Insanity is trying the same thing 10 times and expecting a different result each time.

Einstein didn’t say that. Rita Mae Brown did. See “12 Famous Quotes That Always Get Misattributed” (Business Insider, Christina Sterbenz, October 7, 2013).

Posted by: S | Jul 5 2023 16:08 utc | 81

That Newsweek article is interesting and puzzling.

I think it is saying that we ie the cia know Russia is fed up and getting close to getting aggressive but Burns is saying to them
It wasn't us. It is Ukraine and Poland and maybe UK. Please don't hit us. We are nice and priggy was not us.

Posted by: Watcher | Jul 5 2023 16:10 utc | 82

just now ....

Zelenskyy: Russian explosives planted on nuke plant roof | w/ Alastair Crooke, Fmr British Diplomat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEPaNl6nXZk [26 mins]


Logic would dictate the Ukraine raise the White Flag, as distinct from all these False Flags, to end this senseless slaughter. Ultimate responsibility for this needless slaughter lies with the White House ...

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 5 2023 16:10 utc | 83

Open source information also says russia has 60000 more troops in the Kharkov region.

Odds are ukraine is busily setting up at kypiansk and Lyman. Russian artillery and apparently a stealth drone are being tested to good effect around sumy.

Everyone is still talking Wagner but I bet that's just training Belarus soldiers right now.

Using the stealth drone away from the front is a good tell russia is going to open up a second front.

The reaction to the attacks in belograd is going to be an assault on Kharkov. Data supports this theory so far.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 5 2023 16:11 utc | 84

@23sean
They lost, period.

???? What? How? I'm floored by this totally off-base comment. Unfortunately the ONLY things ZATO has left is evil terrorist action within Russia or FF dirty bomb or total Armageddon.

@34 arch
What gives?

You should know better arch, that was a rookie comment to be sure. Many analysts worth treading have stated constantly that Putin is keeping the bulk of their army and materiel in reserve in case of a wider war with ZATO. His General Staff is not sure right now just how desperate and determined to push weekend soldiers into all areas of Russian concern worldwide. It's as plain as the nose on your face.

Posted by: safe | Jul 5 2023 16:14 utc | 85

17
"
Nato armored vehicles are made of paper reinforced by chicken wire, no surprise here?

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 5 2023 13:06 utc | 18"
You might not know, but the moon landing unit was kept together with duct tape and used flimsy metal foil.
So what's wrong with wire mesh for tanks???

Posted by: G wiltek | Jul 5 2023 16:17 utc | 86

Where do you think the Jews of Palestine are going to move to when the time comes to leave?

Posted by: Alfred (Hurghada) | Jul 5 2023 15:40 utc | 68

---

Florida. Obviously.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 5 2023 16:17 utc | 87

@ fnord | Jul 5 2023 15:43 utc | 72

I think, in America, the glorification of war and the reverence for soldiers as so-called "warriors" among the general population, has to do with the fact that the American combat experience for the last thirty years has involved waging war on enemies that are vastly technologically and numerically inferior.

Very interesting. America carved itself out of a wilderness with a gun and a bible, while trailing in covered wagons. Along the way, ex-Eurotrash slaughtered indigenous population that was defending their own land, using superior weapons and/or biological warfare where needed. That didn't really stop since, did it?

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 5 2023 16:19 utc | 88

@69

Maybe he is taking some vacation time? It is summertime btw.

Posted by: safe | Jul 5 2023 16:20 utc | 89

@23 sean the leprechaun

If the weaker nation doesn't surrender and ceases to exist, in what world is that not a loss?

Posted by: NJH | Jul 5 2023 16:20 utc | 90

After reading Rybar's last two sitreps that noted the escalation in attacks on Russian Federation civilian targets, my immediate thought was to recall the political goal set late last year to move Ukie lines out-of-range of Russian territory so such strikes couldn't be done and that behind-the-scenes IMO political hell is being raised again over that issue. In other words, the Ukie strategy seems to be to force Russia into an offensive to protect its citizens from Ukie bombardment. That would then turn the meat grinder around in favor of the Ukies--or so that's what it appears to be NATO's thinking.

As for the big too-do over the Ukie nuclear terror attack on the ZNPP, if NATO said okay do it and an all-out White Helmet Press Campaign was launched in an attempt to tag Russia for NATO's terror attack, IMO the NATO meeting at Vilnius immediately becomes a target, which one would hope NATO pukes have thought about. Russia well knows Zelensky does little on his own, which Russia IMO has proven to its RoW partners, meaning such a FF White Helmet smear and retaliation wouldn't cause Russia any political harm in the Big Picture. At the SCO, Putin and the entire SCO Team agreed to more closely address terrorism, and all NATO wars are acts of terrorism. The attempt to attack ZNPP has already been labeled an attempted terrorist attack by Russia and as such communicated to its partners by Lavrov and his team. The world's already greatly alarmed that Japan is going to dump Fukushima's radioactive waste water into the Pacific. IOW, IMO, NATO has already lost global opinion on this before it's even happened.

As for what Russia's currently doing on the battlefield, Simplicius reports a build-up in the Kharkov region that somewhat jibes with the movement of Wagner forces into Belarus. Rybar's reports show the continuing grind of Ukies but at a slower pace since the Ukies have altered their assault tactics by sending squad-sized assault patrols instead of company/battalion sized as it did at the outset. Also, it appears quite likely that NATO troops are now manning Ukie AD since what systems that remain are NATO systems. Again, see Simplicius and this curious short item from Sputnik, "US Air Defense Forces Overstretched, Understaffed, Need Psychologists - Reports".

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 5 2023 16:24 utc | 91

ot - article on prigozhin from john helmer that some here will want to consider..

SILENCE OF THE LAMBS – HOW THE RUSSIAN COMMUNISTS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE WAGNER MUTINY AND PRIGOZHIN’S EMPIRE

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2023 16:26 utc | 92

@ karlof1 | Jul 5 2023 16:24 utc | 91

thanks karl... i appreciate your insights..

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2023 16:28 utc | 93

NJH | Jul 5 2023 16:20 utc | 90--

What you mention was an artificial construct to begin with, so there's no "loss" to the world as it was never genuine.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 5 2023 16:29 utc | 94

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 5 2023 15:21 utc | 61

Still a good post, though. Mosaic Warfare reminded me of what Lex said Open-158:

… this is likely the first “modern” war where the doctrines have to confront a different reality than they were designed around. So who adapts fastest and best is critical to analysis …

I think the keys are novelty and preemption, getting a move ahead, learning from memory, observation, abstract reasoning, not mistakes made, which doesn’t work with catastrophe risk in any case. Procedure and routine are inadequate.

Exactly and precisely why it’s live-or-die on sidelining those who are prone to getting caught out by real adversaries. Such people are often full of excuses but little insight.

I will not list MoD failures where the protagonists appeared bereft, first and foremost, of wit. No cure for that, inexcusable to pretend otherwise, depraved to ignore the evidence when better soldiers are readily at hand, pre-SMO pecking order be damned!

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 5 2023 16:31 utc | 95

Don Firineach | Jul 5 2023 16:10 utc | 83--

Thanks very much for the link!! Now to hear what Crooke adds to his latest essay.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 5 2023 16:35 utc | 96

The West has more resources than does Russia.

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 29

The US can't even maintain its crumbling roads and bridges, and the government seems determined to destroy what's left of the economy while giving what cash it has left to Nicaraguans, Arabs and whatever other criminal element finds its way across the wide open border.

Posted by: The Owl | Jul 5 2023 16:38 utc | 97

"The West has more resources than does Russia."

Posted by: iffen | Jul 5 2023 13:56 utc | 30

It's quality over quantity. You can't win on the battlefield with stock buybacks, for instance.

Posted by: Samm | Jul 5 2023 16:43 utc | 98

It seems the "sniffer" has left Crete.

Posted by: TJC | Jul 5 2023 16:43 utc | 99

Posted by: AG | Jul 5 2023 15:07 utc | 57

>"Exclusive: The CIA's Blind Spot about the Ukraine War
By William M. Arkin On 07/05/23"

>https://www.newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html

It's becoming increasingly evident that some factions in the USA deep state see Ukraine war as damaging USA interests (might lead to escalation or NATO dissolution, etc) and they want to stop it, but majority of deep state is following the path of least resistance, which is to continue business as usual and feed the defense contractors and allow Biden to claim victory over Russia. So expect more and more of these interesting revelations by anonymous CIA and other deep state sources. But it's a slow process to chip away at the propaganda edifice erected by the rest of the deep state. So I continue my prediction that USA won't pull the plug until Nov 2024.

Posted by: Revelo | Jul 5 2023 16:45 utc | 100

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