Pentagon Dragging Its Feet Over F-16 Gifts To Ukraine

July 14, 2023

Pushed by the weapon industry the U.S. Defense Department is dragging its feet over the delivery of F-16 airplanes to Ukraine:

Pentagon: Ukraine battlefield situation currently ‘not ideal’ for F-16 deployment

The battlefield conditions in Ukraine are currently “not ideal” for the employment of F-16 fighter jets, said Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of operations of the Joint Staff, on July 13.

“The conditions right now for the employment of the F-16s are probably not – they’re probably not ideal,” the general said at a press briefing.

“I mean, the Russians still possess some air defense capability. They have air capability. And the number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what’s going on right now,” he clarified.

Lockheed-Martin, which still builds and sells the F-16 to various countries, is obviously not happy that the markets will soon learn that the F-16 have no fu**ing chance against modern Russian fighter planes and air-defenses.

Their coming destruction will scream “Buy Russian!” to the world and several countries will probably switch their provider and do so.

Use as open thread for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Posted by on July 14, 2023 at 15:39 UTC | Permalink

Comments

There it is again b, lügenregenbogen
Initial “Ready” Reserve activation, played down as ‘reservists’ in media & assigned to actual rainbow coalition, since 2014 NATO op unit patch femine-blue-ukraine (Poland/Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia…
media.defense.gov/2018/Mar/08/2001887450/780/780/0/171129-A-UM169-0001.PNG
Pol cluster trench tool plan, fails breaching of a self-littered area of operations; extending contact lines, adding roofs, hidden trenches, tunnels, and more bunkers reduces outflanking
PEP Politically Exposed Persons classification
Placer Gold discovered Dnieper River dry-wash
Re: More container items:
‘Eagle Hunter’ mini-Gyroplanes, @100MPH, fpv? recue evac, armored scout, unknown radar sig, dronecatchers
bhfwkj.com/upload/image/20171019/2017101915370971971.jpg
bhfwkj.com/upload/image/20171019/20171019153650775077.jpg
bhfwkj.com/upload/image/20171019/2017101916090656656.JPG

Posted by: Merlin | Jul 15 2023 4:02 utc | 101

@ Catilina | Jul 15 2023 3:31 utc | 96
good question.. i don’t know if they are thinking that far ahead..
Posted by: james | Jul 15 2023 3:51 utc | 98
————————————————-
My understanding is that Black Rock bought off the Ukrainian debt, some, likely not all. The US financial support to Ukraine goes straight into their coffers. They are bankers, not NATO politicians.
Please, correct me if I am wrong, but I have encountered it here and there.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 15 2023 4:31 utc | 102

Barflies;
Every sign points to a (gradual) and massive build-up of NATO forces along the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus. at some point in the next few months, we are looking at some 300,000 NATO ground forces in that zone.
Figure 6-9 months of training and similar calendar time for logistics build-up. it’s very possible that by late Summer 2024, NATO will have a real invasion force stationed and ready Note, NATO has 2 million in its active armed forces and 3 million in reserves. Roughly 2/3s of these 5 million are Air Force, Naval, and support. That leaves 1,650,000 Troops for maneuver ground forces. Should be doable to find 500,000 from that pool for invasion force. ¿ Sí ?
500,0000 Available Ground Troops for glorious invasion:
300,000 NATO
150,000 Kiev
100,000 Mercs, etc.
Question:,
1) do any Barflies believe NATO will stop escalating ?
2) do Barflies believe NATO will take until Summer 2025 to build up such a force ?

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 4:57 utc | 103

Not likely, … you throw a hissy fit and ban on trivial issues … then the potential $100 donation goes into my own coffee club… But please keep the free content coming, … lol.

Posted by: noname | Jul 15 2023 5:01 utc | 104

F-16 is nuclear capable, Putin has made it clear if they appear in the battlezone they will be treated as a nuclear threat. This has been told to the USA and NATO. So it goes on. Not sure what the actual response is by RF
Posted by: hankster | Jul 14 2023 23:29 utc | 80
Why guess? The attacks on ZNPP, still not secured, are not a nuclear threat? Or the drones shot down in regions with NPPs in Russia last week? The response will be a message of concern and bla bla: tass.com/defense/1646771
They also express concern for Syria and that’s all they can do: tass.com/world/1647097

Posted by: rk | Jul 15 2023 5:07 utc | 105

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 4:57 utc | 104
Russia looks at the forces and postures on border and near-border areas, not rhethoric. Increasingly we see that Nato is no longer made of independent countries, just statelets belonging to a grey lump called Nato, controlled by the US.
The western political classes are completely corrupt, able to evade all responsibility for everything they do, and have no qualms plunging border states to abyss of war. The buildup will continue and will be monitored, and chance for something happening only increases in coming years.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 5:36 utc | 106

Posted by: noname | Jul 15 2023 5:01 utc | 105
I’m baaaaaack!
Boo.
Boohoo-who
👻🤡

Posted by: Ghost of RSH | Jul 15 2023 5:41 utc | 107

Uh, who needs an F-16 to be shot down? Is anyone outside of NATO even buying American weapons anymore (besides hapless Taiwan, which is a US dependency)?
The days of American military supremacy (either on the battlefield or in terms of sales) are long, long over. America can’t even make enough 9mm bullets these days.

Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Jul 15 2023 6:03 utc | 108

Whenever I hear their voices or see their faces all I can see and hear is evil.
Writ large.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jul 14 2023 17:48 @29
Might I suggest you take a screen shot and send it to your member of parliament or congress or whatever you have and demand peace (talks). I have started doing this. Take the most abhorrent death you can find and make them face it.

Posted by: Inki | Jul 15 2023 6:07 utc | 109

Why send money in after bad. The writing on the wall is now so clear, even blinkered blinkens can see the end of the road in Ukraine.

Posted by: deepblue | Jul 15 2023 6:10 utc | 110

Posted by: Montanamotor | Jul 14 2023 19:55 utc | 45

THE END IS NIGH
Its a huge Maskirovka. Remember, “Wagner PMC” was/is in fact GRU, so they were ALWAYS part of the Russian Army.

Das Problem sind die sehr schweren Vorwürfe von Y.V.Prigozhin gegenüber S.K.Schoigu ( Munitionsmangel, Manipulation der Zahlen, etc ).
Die Wahrheit, die genauen Daten, kann eigentlich NUR der Verteidigungsminister (S.K.Schoigu) kennen aber die Daten sind 100% ein Militägeheimnis und wir haben ausserdem einen Krieg. Schoigu kennt die Wahrheit, kann sich aber öffentlich nicht wehren ohne Militärgeheimnisse preiszugeben.
Maskirovka ist etwas anderes und nicht das was wir gerade hier miterleben.
Peskow ist die nächste Runde in der Diskreditierung des Verteidigungsministeriums,
Nur Putin oder sein kleiner extrem unfähiger Assisten könnte S.K.Schoigu zur Seite stehen, macht er aber seit Wochen/Monaten nicht.

Posted by: theo | Jul 15 2023 6:11 utc | 111

1) do any Barflies believe NATO will stop escalating ?
2) do Barflies believe NATO will take until Summer 2025 to build up such a force ?
Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 4:57 utc | 104
1) No, nuclear weapons is the only escalation I question. Deep, down, everyone knows it’s the big question mark? Will they take the final step up the escalation ladder?
2). NATO will not have an army, ever. They are done for. I am not just preaching against woke mind virus… …it is a serious reality of the west.
They may have a sufficient assembly by 2025, BUT that’s all. Their war production capabilities will suck at least for a GENERATION, yes, 20 years. They already sailed their ships from manufacture to trade. Trade is stronger in peace, manufacturing is stronger in war.
But the demoralization of the West hampers its abilities to truly activate a war industry. The bureaucracy is deep in the west. It sucks at getting anything done, and environmentalists simply will not tolerate dirty factories and power plants. The will tie up any attempts for mobilization for years.
Then there is the obvious emasculation of the Western male. Moral or not, it certainly does not inspire them to die for their country. You can not shame western men into fighting.. ..they are shameless, it is one of the results of a hyoer-sexualized peoples.
And then let’s talk Russo-Ukrainian war level casualties: West crumbles to dust if more than 50,000 dead Americans in a year.
Im not saying it’s bad. It is what it is.
Kind of like Biden stealing the election. America is for the worse because of it, but the world is necessarily better off. An idiot in the white house, an entire idiotic, corrupt power structure in the west is better for the world than a competent one, like George H Bush.
It sucks to live under it, but it feels good knowing it is untenable.
TL:DR
NATO can have a mighty army, but they will never be able to sustain a war, due to factors in every arena, political, economic, industrial, social and morale.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 15 2023 6:34 utc | 112

More evidence of eager lines of volunteers flocking to the recruitment office for AFU. 8 Azov guys spending 5 minutes to catch one eager Leopard driver, or minesweeper.
https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1679914668813320194
There was also another video of 5 of them running after a man who was jogging in a park. The supply is drying up.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 6:49 utc | 113

Your Russian puppeteers will undouptedly provide you with a decent compensation for your service.

Posted by: m | Jul 15 2023 7:39 utc | 114

Your Russian puppeteers will undouptedly provide you with a decent compensation for your service.
Posted by: m | Jul 15 2023 7:39 utc | 114
Says m secretly happy 350,000 Ukrainians are dead.

Posted by: Inki | Jul 15 2023 7:54 utc | 115

Why doesn’t Russia destroy the Western munitions as soon as they cross the border? Why wait until they are used?

Posted by: Michael | Jul 15 2023 8:24 utc | 116

@Michael | Jul 15 2023 8:24 utc | 116

Why doesn’t Russia destroy the Western munitions as soon as they cross the border? Why wait until they are used?

What happened to the Depleted Uranium ammunition do you think? From western sources, you will only hear about what gets through.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 15 2023 8:34 utc | 117

First Mark Rutte announced his resignation on the autumn, now Ben Wallace is doing the same. They expect something?
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73251

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 15 2023 8:36 utc | 118

First Mark Rutte announced his resignation on the autumn, now Ben Wallace is doing the same. They expect something?
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73251
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 15 2023 8:36 utc | 118
Yes the deck chairs are being moved on the Titanic…everybody’s waiting for the music to stop

Posted by: Flash | Jul 15 2023 9:09 utc | 119

The DU ammunition is only for Challenger tanks, which use a different kind of gun compared to Leopard 2. The Challenger tanks are on the Lvov front line, therefore they haven’t been seen yet.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 9:27 utc | 120

reply to:
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 15 2023 8:34 utc | 117

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 9:27 utc | 121

WEEB Union
Major Wagner Buildup in Belarus | What’s happening?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9yfyI0RwN0

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 15 2023 10:20 utc | 122

Macron booed during Bastille Day parade in Paris: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD4yhiAv4Bw

Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 15 2023 10:32 utc | 123

There was also another video of 5 of them running after a man who was jogging in a park. The supply is drying up.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 6:49 utc | 113
On topwar there was an article yesterday that Zeli has ordered 200k more to be mobilized right now.
A new trick invented to collect some of the Ukr men already in EU is to place them as “wanted” for something, anything, on Interpol lists, to be sent back to Ukr. Kharkov police already “proudly” did it.

Posted by: rk | Jul 15 2023 10:36 utc | 124

Escalation to F-16s in the Russo/Ukrainian War:
The stage is being set to introduce F-16s into Ukraine. The F-16s using conventional munitions will not change the conflict much. They will be shot down like the other aircraft operated by Ukraine. Lately, very few Ukrainian aircraft operate near the zero lines. The Russians have already shot down quite a few of the Ukrainian aircraft.
Of Interest:
It is of interest that the US has insisted that any F-16s being given to Ukraine be compatible for the carry and deployment of the US B61 bomb. The “-12” modification of these bombs allow the yield of the nuclear device to be dialed to as low as 0.3 kilotons to as high as 340 kilotons.
What May be Going On:
Recently, the West gave cluster bombs to Ukraine. The Abram tanks are soon to follow. After the F-16s, about all that is left are the F-22s and F-35s. And then there are the nukes.
It could be that the USA is planning on escalating the Russo/Ukrainian war to a tactical nuke level. I don’t doubt anything that the USA will do to protect its current hegemony which is supported by the world reserve currency status of the United States Dollar.
Training Ukrainian Pilots to fly the F-16s:
The West does not need to train the Ukrainians on the F-16s. They only need for their F-16 pilots to fly their F-16s into Ukrainian and other territory to complete their assigned sorties.
I don’t think the West totally trusts Zelensky and his crew. The West may be somewhat hesitant to train the F-16s. The West could lose control over the narrative of what is going on and when. So, they will continue to delay training Ukrainians to fly the F-16s until after the West escalates the war effort on their timing and on their terms, not Ukraine’s.
When:
In the fog of war it looks like the F-16s are a way off time wise before being delivered simply because the USA has yet given the OK to have Ukrainian pilots trained on the F-16s.
This so called “training delay” most likely is a ruse to throw off the Russians to think it will be a while before F-16s enter the conflict.
Trained F-16 pilots from the NATO nations can simply remove their nation’s flag patch from their velcro and place a Ukrainian flag patch on their uniform. Then you have an instantly trained “Ukrainian” F-16 pilot. This can happen at any time going forth.
With “Ukrainian” F-16 pilots, F-16s, and B61 bombs you have the recipe for a resultant nuclear war. For sure the Betty Crockers of the Pentagon and the State Department have been busy with their end-of-Russia recipes.
The Russian Response:
If a nuclear bomb is dropped upon any of its military assets within the Russian Federation, or Belarus, the Russians will respond with a launch against NATO. The retalitory launch will also include the USA.
It is possible that Russia would pre-empt the coming of F-16s by launching just prior to the release of the F-16s upon Russian military targets.
What do the Russians Know?:
It is possible that the Russians already have the detailed NATO escalation plans with associated dates. If so, they can easily check off each escalatory step to see exactly where the USA is taking their escalation and even when they plan to further escalate the conflict.
Note: This week a 4400 page NATO document defining the road to defeating Russia was released in which NATO is frantically attempting to recover.
Signs:
If the above is a possible scenario, there will be signs of it coming. One sign will be NATO nations flying their F-16s into Ukrainian territory to determine the Russian response. Another sign could be the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from all the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. You don’t want to nuke your “allies” along the zero line.
These signs may not be very far away time wise. The alternative news will make it apparent if and when they occur.
Preps:
Most are going to totally discount what is written above because it means a drastic change in their life. The normalcy bias will kick in and the above will be rejected by most. For those who can get past their normalcy bias, I am recommending to relocate and to prep as God leads you to do so.

Posted by: young | Jul 15 2023 10:39 utc | 125

103. exile. I too count the numbers moved about on the chess board. NATO is certainly postering forces. The big question is the sustainability. Michael Hudsons latest piece of deindustrialisation. was interesting. The shell production in years projections. Various nations all saying they cant fight for more than a few days to a wekk or two at the current SMO intensity. So i too wonder. 3 million nato on a border but they have no supply lines back to a factory to feed off. how would that end .? Or is nuke war meant to change the board and inputs into the gaming model. As a mere pleb i leave it to smarter people than me to predict the 8 ball answer

Posted by: hankster | Jul 15 2023 10:40 utc | 126

hankster | Jul 15 2023 10:40 utc | 126
nafo never ever had means to stop the russians, it was a few days before the nuclear tripwire was tripped….
no us president would start what obama and biden started!

Posted by: paddy | Jul 15 2023 10:50 utc | 127

Russian Special Services Thwart Ukrainian Plot to Kill Rossiya Segodnya Chief Simonyan
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230715/russian-special-services-thwart-ukrainian-plot-to-kill-sputnik-and-rt-chief-simonyan-1111890334.html
Attempt to assassinate RT editor-in-chief thwarted – FSB
https://www.rt.com/russia/579751-attempt-to-assassinate-rt-editor-chief-thwarted/

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 15 2023 10:51 utc | 128

Watching the military summary channel over the last fortnight. I simply can’t see how so many people can say the Ukrainian army is about to collapse. To me it looks like have got a lot better and doing some real damage behind the Russian defence for a change. Something we never saw in first 400 days of the conflict.
I still believe they have far more troops in reserve than most analysis thinks they do. They certainly don’t look like collapsing any time soon. Destroyed another Russian convoy yesterday in today’s military summary channel video.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 11:34 utc | 129

Watching the military summary channel over the last fortnight. Russian losses are increasing. Something we never saw in first 400 days of the conflict. As Russia is being forced to bring more reserves to the front on a daily basis in many areas. To replace the losses. More Russian equipment is being taken out on a daily basis.
I’m wondering if they lost the convoy in the South due to the change in command of the 58th army during the last week. Whoever was put in charge is an idiot and didn’t learn anything about convoys and what happened at the start of the SMO. Prigozhin would be having a field day and shouting at shoigu and calling him incompetent.
Can anybody who knows a hell of a lot more about the military than me. Explain to me why so many people think the Ukrainian army is about to collapse ?

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 11:49 utc | 130

“Watching the military summary channel”
LOL

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 11:49 utc | 131

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 11:49 utc | 131
Dima does a pretty good job explaining what has happened the day before. By the way the video’s are geolocated so not BS. So I don’t see why you are laughing about it.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 11:54 utc | 132

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyAADTu5X4k
LOL
Yes, that is the problem: you do not see.

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 12:00 utc | 133

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 11:49 utc | 131
According to Slavyangrad who I trust, says over the last 2 days Kleshcheevka was touch and go. Russia held onto it by their fingernails.
It just doesn’t sound as if Ukraine is about to collapse any time soon.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 12:06 utc | 134

I guess Dima is also reporting fact like this one:
https://t.me/vladimirtupin/32444
Or this one:
https://t.me/vladimirtupin/32441
Or this one:
https://t.me/vladimirtupin/32426
Or this one:
https://t.me/vladimirtupin/32425
Etc.

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 12:15 utc | 135

The situation in Zaporozhye and in the South Donetsk direction on July 15
Orekhovskoe/Pologov direction
Since Friday morning, attempts by the AFU to throw the DRG in small quantities closer to the front line have been continuing. This does not bring success — the movement is opened in advance, blows are immediately struck. All last week, the 65th OMBr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses on the approaches to Rabotin. They were supported for some time by the 47th brigade, about the unsuccessful offensive of which the Military Chronicle told earlier, but heavy losses affect: the enemy cannot act in large groups, and small ones do not achieve any other result than a race in a minefield.
The 128th OGSHBR on Thursday received a small replenishment in the area of Novoandreevka and Preobrazhenka, but the new arrivals, judging by radio intercepts, are not suitable for assault operations and in 80% of cases are left in the rear. Large forces are not accumulating yet, but attacks periodically occur. The AFU reserves from the 31st Mechanized Brigade have very heavy losses.
South Donetsk direction (Velikaya Novoselka)
The artillery of the 40th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet has been conducting active counter-battery work for the last few days. The most active units of the AFU in this area — the 35th and 37th Marine Brigades (especially the 505th and 507th battalions), as well as the 68th Jaeger Brigade – are suffering high losses and, presumably, in August they can be withdrawn to restore combat capability. Losses, as in Zaporozhye, are related to the quality of personnel: 75% of the mobilized transferred to these formations are over 45 years old and unfit not only for combat operations, but also for military service in general. In a number of areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are trying to attack at the junction of units located on the borders of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR, but due to a shortage of people and equipment, attacks do not lead to anything.
The density of enemy artillery fire has also become uneven, which indirectly indicates the need to save ammunition.
milchronicles

Posted by: Mgvfh | Jul 15 2023 12:21 utc | 136

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ukraine-changes-wartactic-to-one-that-will-cause-it-more-losses.html
To the last Ukrainian.
Soon or not soon, who cares?
Wait and see.
Speaking of local meteorological data says nothing about the climatic trend.
Anyway, Ukraine is a 404 country, on respiratory device by the Nazi Alliance Treacherous Organisation.

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 12:24 utc | 137

re: Cluster ammo & RU
Seymour Hersh in his latest about F-16, Turkey, the IMF (Impossible Missions Force) with one sentence he doesn´t expand further, as if it were all clear:
As to cluster-bombs:
“And then the administration claims that the Russians have used them first in the war, which is just a lie.”
Hersh would be the first from the classic personnel to point this out I think. Patrick LAwrence might as well but I havent seen any such statement from him.
https://scheerpost.com/2023/07/15/seymour-hersh-fear-and-loathing-on-air-force-one/

Posted by: AG | Jul 15 2023 12:28 utc | 138

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/15/ben-wallace-denies-resign-jeremy-hunt-defence-increase-budget
Rats leaving.
Sinking ship of fools?

Posted by: jpc | Jul 15 2023 12:28 utc | 139

On topwar there was an article yesterday that Zeli has ordered 200k more to be mobilized right now.
A new trick invented to collect some of the Ukr men already in EU is to place them as “wanted” for something, anything, on Interpol lists, to be sent back to Ukr. Kharkov police already “proudly” did it.
Posted by: rk | Jul 15 2023 10:36 utc | 124

There are around 10 million Ukrainian Citizens living in the EU/England. It’s been interesting to speculate when the press gangs will start their work on these poor souls.
Do you have a link or more info ?

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 12:41 utc | 140

“There are around 10 million Ukrainian Citizens living in the EU/England.”
The only “refugees” I saw were driving brand new very expensive cars, mostly bmw and the like.
Who can imagine they will return to Ukraine?

Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 13:05 utc | 141

Alexander Mercouris began his video yesterday by wishing everyone in france a happy Bastille Day and announcing his firm belief that the French Revolution advanced the causes of France, of Europe, and of humanity.
I think I am done with this man.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 15 2023 13:09 utc | 142

Sending outdated 40+ year old fighter jets to get blowm out of the sky will pull the curtain back on the trillions being wasted on the M.I.C. I don’t expect the Ukranazi’s to be getting any…

Posted by: Mikko | Jul 15 2023 13:11 utc | 143

Intelligent Dasein | Jul 15 2023 13:09 utc | 142, who ‘is done’ with Alexander Mercouris.
I’m sure he’s mortified. I supppose it’s an opinion too far.

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 13:25 utc | 144

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jul 15 2023 13:09 utc | 142
Oh Mercouris is right, in a certain way. But no revolution ends up achieving what the revolutionaries expect.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 15 2023 13:26 utc | 145

During the course of the Russian military defense, videos appeared on the Web many times demonstrating the accuracy of Western ammunition used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, counter-battery work has been and remains the most urgent problem for the RF Armed Forces. Russian military experts have repeatedly drawn attention to this over the past year.
According to experts, Russia also possesses precision-guided artillery munitions, such as the Krasnopol projectiles. However, they have a number of disadvantages: they have a shorter range due to the lack of a control unit using a satellite navigation system and there is a need for laser target illumination, and they are also very expensive, since their electronics must withstand heavy loads when fired.
At the same time, high-precision munitions are constantly in short supply of units of the RF Armed Forces in the zone of the NMD. Therefore, they cannot completely suppress enemy artillery.
Kamikaze UAVs (loitering ammunition) of the Lancet family also have serious limitations in use: short range and mass of the warhead, and there is no possibility of a full-fledged massive simultaneous use (each Lancet leads one operator to the target). The experts came to the conclusion that for the successful counter-battery work of the RF Armed Forces, a large number of launchers and ammunition for them, like the American M142 HIMARS, are required. Therefore, the early appearance in the units of the RF Armed Forces of the domestic advanced Hermes guided missile weapon system, which has a number of advantages over other weapons systems, may be an appropriate response to the mentioned challenge.
The Hermes ammunition is inertial and has a combined seeker, which combines a control unit using GLONASS and guidance using laser illumination. Moreover, the electronics of the ammunition is not as demanding on overloads as that of barreled artillery. At the same time, it is maximally unified with the Pantsir air defense missile system and has a guaranteed range of 40 km, although the developers say it will be up to 100 km.
The dimensions of the Hermes are much smaller than the dimensions of the Tornado-S MLRS (launch containers can be installed on small vehicles). Moreover, for successful counter-battery work, specialized modern weapons are simply necessary, and if Russia seeks to bring the NMD to its logical conclusion, it needs to improve its weapons and intelligence systems in accordance with the challenges of the time.
“>https://en.topcor.ru/37179-jeksperty-nazvali-reshenie-problemy-kontrbatarejnoj-raboty-v-vs-rf.html

Apparently Krasnopol is getting longer range versions. Himars are guided only by coordinate (GPS), Krasnopol is guided by coordinate, it can also be guided from the drone laser pin pointer and it can hit a moving target, to the extent and flight time it has left to be able to maneuver. More like fine-tuning.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 13:26 utc | 146

Exile @103
Logistically not possible. Not going to happen. Three thousand at a time with no equipment and no plan is all that can be managed.
At this point Bidet is shooting in the dark and dreaming good things happen. No one on the team significantly more mentally alert than Bidet.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 15 2023 13:59 utc | 147

But no revolution ends up achieving what the revolutionaries expect.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 15 2023 13:26 utc | 145
Societies progress (and regress) in fit, starts, and reverals. The wave of rebellions mini-revolutions and uprisings that swept Europe in 1848-9 were mostly supressed within a few years, but with concessions such as ending serfdom (and instituting wage slavery instead).

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jul 15 2023 14:09 utc | 148

There are nowhere near 10 million Ukrainians in the UK. Russia itself only has three million.
Try 160,000 plus whatever batches of troops are currently being trained.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 15 2023 14:14 utc | 149

@ Acco Hengst | Jul 15 2023 4:31 utc | 102
thanks… i would actually like to see some paper work confirming that… i do believe what you suggest regardless..

Posted by: james | Jul 15 2023 14:17 utc | 150

The only “refugees” I saw were driving brand new very expensive cars, mostly bmw and the like.
Who can imagine they will return to Ukraine?
Posted by: libegafra | Jul 15 2023 13:05 utc | 141

Indeed – it’s remarkable how many of these suffering refugees from the poorest country in Europe can afford new 100,000€ cars. It’s even more remarkable when one knows that as of 2021, 90% of salaries in The Ukraine were under 500€/month.
Those billions of foreign aid dollars must be flowing into the right hands my fellow barfly

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 14:18 utc | 151

james | Jul 15 2023 14:17 utc | 150, WRT inquiry into Acco Hengst claim @102
Haven’t read it all (hardly any of it really) but found this Jacobin article of financial arrangements between Z & Fink.
https://jacobin.com/2023/01/ukraine-postwar-reconstruction-western-capital-blackrock-neoliberalism

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 14:46 utc | 152

@ Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 11:49 utc | 130
Explain to me why so many people think the Ukrainian army is about to collapse ?
That is a good question. Not watching Military Summary regularly, but I think what is well presented there are updates on local battles and some better sources researched and geolocated videos. Assumptions on tactics and a strategy are purely arbitrary there. Dima has insights on some stuff, however he makes or presents things from his view point. So it is a suggestive commentary.
So do Ritter, MacGregor, Maryanov and others. They are all suggestive commentaries. They also claim that Ukraine is to collapse any time now. And they do that for months.
Collapsing of Ukrainian army narrative was started after RF liberated Lisichansk conglomerate and a momentum where everyone claimed that RF will now roll on to Rzeszow, as Ukraine is broken there. However that was not the case, and it is certainly not today.
Safely, one can see that RF in Ukraine has a dominance, but not an impunity.
Also one should stop thinking about independent Ukrainian army, as it is really a NATO army, consisting of, basically NATO forces, mixed in equal or bigger quantities along certain front-lines.
The only way we might see the Ukrainian military breakdown is, if the top crumbles through some internal power struggle, and from the below military losses, combined with heavy losses in cities and territories. It is a cruel, but effective strategy, if it happens in synchronous manner.
Populace is obviously content with it, as a provider of a cannon fodder. So far, and NATO said it first, as long as it takes.
Only a decisive action, with obvious strategic territorial gains, matter there.
That manifests across many dimensions, negatively impacting materiel, morale, expectations, possibilities, tactical and strategic options.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 14:50 utc | 153

old hippie,
bidet (grafter he is) is tripping Armageddon.
in nato best days it was a few days to nukes if it came to war.
those days were decades ago, the war profiteers disarmed the so called Atlantic alliance

Posted by: paddy | Jul 15 2023 14:55 utc | 154

Re Ukraine & Blackrock. james@150 & Acc Hengst@102
Have found no direct link but on
https://debtjustice.org.uk/news/campaign-success-cancel-ukraines-debt
There was this statement’
The Ukrainian government and its Western allies had previously insisted that it would pay its debts, and repayments to bondholders have continued throughout the invasion.
Is Blackrock a ‘bondholder’?

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 15:00 utc | 155

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 4:57 utc | 103
Re: NATO capability,
It’s unhelpful to look at aggregate NATO force numbers because they’re heavily skewed by the size of the Turkish and US military. The former is not guaranteed to be any part of this and the latter cannot put anywhere near its full capability in Europe due to a host of other commitments. Once you get beyond those two members, the actual forces available are very small. NATO forces also have an enormous tooth to tail ratio. For the US to actually fight in Europe would require a huge number of forces just to move people and equipment across the Atlantic.
NATO statements always use total force numbers, the actual number of “bayonets” is, by necessity, much much lower. Of course all those supply and other task troops are necessary but not directly threatening. Not to mention that most of NATO’s forces have never actually participated in combat. Every army has a steep learning curve when fighting an actual enemy. So the effectiveness of this theoretical NATO force is also questionable, especially when considering it would have a very limited time frame to achieve success.
Because the issue with munitions is real and there is no right around the corner solution. Increase production is still wholly in the future tense, while stocks appear to be falling to the level of absolute strategic reserves. 1M 155 mm shells would last 7 weeks at 20k/day, assuming almost no loss to strikes on ammunition depots. 500k NATO troops aren’t going to go against Russia with a 3k/day artillery budget.
Finally, NATO is most adept at arranging words. Its definition of rapid reaction force is to be on the battlefield in ~3 weeks. But as it has found in supplying Ukraine, the equipment for that may not actually be in fighting condition. The US can’t even manage to repaint equipment before it gets sent.
I am not suggesting that NATO is no threat. It could do substantial damage to Russia, especially initially. But it would come at significant cost and unless overwhelmingly and immediately effective, will fail. That is the greatest danger because US leadership would be faced with admitting defeat or going nuclear.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 15 2023 15:04 utc | 156

@ Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 15:00 utc | 155
thanks for that link which confirms some of the speculation and yes blackrock is essentially a bond holder here..

Posted by: james | Jul 15 2023 15:34 utc | 157

@ Lex | Jul 15 2023 15:04 utc | 156
US leadership would be faced with admitting defeat or going nuclear.
Ok, and how they would do that? With F-16 carrying old gravity nuke bomb?
The USA has almost nothing of a tactical substance to threaten to RF in Europe really. It probably can dent RF here and there, as you say, but a scale-tempo warfare is deadly and the USA will concede there, that is expected.
It would be interesting to see how that would play out, sure.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 15:36 utc | 158

Posted by: Lex | Jul 15 2023 15:04 utc | 156
US would significantly need to set up new production lines for its existing weapon systems. US is already struggling with commitments to its domestic infrastructure and society. Another question is whether they are physically capable of doing such things. Not in the current economic system, deteriorating USD status, and weakening vassals.
As Martyanov has repeatedly pointed out, the US is actually not significantly larger compared to Russia in steel production. US is only 20 % of Russian aluminum production (Canada is on par with Russia where US also buys), and smaller in oil and gas.
US weapon procurement system is set up to make profit. It is more profitable to not create high-volume production lines, but throttle and spread production out over a long time. It requires giganormous contracts by US congress if they want to stimulate something.
Then there’s the problem that weapon efficiency of US has been a myth, and it’s not actually any better than Russian ones, in many case sub-par. Himars, ok.
The largest problem for Nato is that they lack coherency. They have a joint command, for sure. They own all the politicians, institutes and opposition in European Nato countries. OK. They have some sort of nominal “Nato force”, which is very small.
There are only a small handful of countries who would actually commit suicide on the order of Biden or anyone in Washington DC, through the orders of Nato. Nato cannot operate directly if it decides to initiate a large war inside Nato countries. Contrary to a nation state, Nato can only operate through a corrupt media and obfuscating facts.
Practically they only have some kind of joint expeditionary force, which US/Nato command is directly able to command, for example, by sending it into Ukraine. An expeditionary force has no sustainability or staying power.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 15:38 utc | 159

@ Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 15:00 utc | 155
this is from the first link inside the original link you shared..
“Ukraine’s sovereign bonds are held by major fund managers.
Filings gathered by EMAXX show that the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock held $1.2 billion across various funds in the United States and the UK while Alliance Bernstein has exposure of $580 million with Eaton Vance and PIMCO each holding over $300 million of the bonds.”
also to put it in perspective – “At the end of 2020, Ukraine had $130 billion in external debt outstanding, according to World Bank data.” of course the world bank is an extension of the imf – usa financial domination scheme too…all these so called ”international institutions” are extensions of usa-uk foreign policy agenda to continue to rule the world… this is why i believe so much of what is taking place in this proxy war in ukraine is about finances more then anything.

Posted by: james | Jul 15 2023 15:40 utc | 160

Lex and umimpetor,,
Good points, especially about Ankara not participating.
Reflect as a example of the 1991 war on Iraq. The Pentagon essentially used its entire military. It spent 5 months training in KSA. And 7 months building up supplies.
D-Day took 2 years
Why not a similar effort this time

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 15:50 utc | 161

“I am not suggesting that NATO is no threat. It could do substantial damage to Russia, especially initially. But it would come at significant cost and unless overwhelmingly and immediately effective, will fail. That is the greatest danger because US leadership would be faced with admitting defeat or going nuclear.”
Posted by: Lex | Jul 15
That’s an honest assessment that’s never going to be permitted on MSM.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 15 2023 16:15 utc | 162

@ Exile | Jul 15 2023 15:50 utc | 161
Why not a similar effort this time
NATO is shipping amazing amount of materiel day in day out, for the last 20 month or so.
So do not be fooled that NATO is empty, lacks ammo or is depleted.
What they lack is a well trained manpower willing to confront the huge battlespace without any guarantees for success there, apart from other issues that you mention.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 16:19 utc | 163

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 16:19 utc | 163
You did not state That NATO lacks the industrial capacity to replace that “Amazing amount of material”
NATO may not be totally empty. But it can not refill its armories quickly. NATO can only rearm at a very slow pace.
That will not win a war with a superpower.

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 15 2023 16:30 utc | 164

@ Golddigger | Jul 15 2023 16:30 utc | 164
That is, as per default, true. But still enough weapons for an initial quickie tryout. If not now, when then?
A fail is written all over, whatever action they take.
They would screw their own surrender, probably.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 16:59 utc | 165

There are nowhere near 10 million Ukrainians in the UK. Russia itself only has three million.
Try 160,000 plus whatever batches of troops are currently being trained.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 15 2023 14:14 utc | 149<\blockquote>
You are confusing refugees with citizens. Approximately 8 million Ukrainian citizens emigrated from 2014-2021. of those -3million went to RF and ~5 Million to EU+. Since 2022; ~8 million Ukrainian refugees were recorded – about 3 million went to RF and 5 Million went to EU+.
Let’s add ‚em up
16 million Ukrainians left in total 2014-2023
Divided as follows
10 million in EU+ (5+5)
6 million in RF (3+3)

Posted by: Exile | Jul 15 2023 17:49 utc | 166

Re: Operation Regenbogen
the last nazi mission of ww2 called rainbow,
an “order” was given ‘by Rainbow’ to scuttle the entire fleet using the code-word “Regenbogen”.

Posted by: Merlin | Jul 15 2023 17:56 utc | 167

Cheers whirlX

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 15 2023 18:24 utc | 168

@161
usa of 1942 is long gone.
it took 2months to lay out the baseline for p-51, for the Brit’s
f-35 is over 2decades plundering the taxpayer, needing an engine to spec, and to replace most of it subsystems due to tech advances.
Usa spent trillions on beating 3rd world, and shoddy engineering.
no room for supply ships, let c-17 do what Liberty ships do
nothing like 1991 either

Posted by: paddy | Jul 15 2023 18:46 utc | 169

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 15 2023 16:59 utc | 165
I guess all NATO could come up with. After days of head banging in Vilnius was.
If failure is an option.”Go out in a blaze of glory”, Surrender by suicide, doctrine.

Posted by: Golddigger | Jul 15 2023 20:11 utc | 170

@ Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 14:46 utc | 152
i missed this link you shared earlier, but it addresses this topic very well and the link has a number of valuable links within it to gaining a broader understanding of blackrocks role with regard to ukraine… thanks for sharing that…

Posted by: james | Jul 15 2023 20:46 utc | 171

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 15 2023 13:26 utc | 146
—————————————————–
Great update, thank you!
Answers some questions about counter battery fire.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 15 2023 22:40 utc | 172

Re Ukraine & Blackrock. james@150 & Acco Hengst@102
Have found no direct link but on https://debtjustice.org.uk/news/campaign-success-cancel-ukraines-debt There was this statement’
The Ukrainian government and its Western allies had previously insisted that it would pay its debts, and repayments to bondholders have continued throughout the invasion.
Is Blackrock a ‘bondholder’?
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Jul 15 2023 15:00 utc | 155
—————————————————————
Debt instruments come on many varied forms. ‘pay its debts’ takes care of all these variations. ‘repayments to bondholders’ begs the question of what variety of debt instruments are actually covered.
Black Rock and its various subsidiaries are a truly gigantic finance outfit. They fit the bill for super-sized finance. Details, paper, good luck.
If you expect Ukraine, the US Government or NATO to provide detailed clarifications, you have my sympathy. See if CNN or NYT can be motivated. wsj only does cheerleading. Seymour Hersh also comes to mind.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 15 2023 23:05 utc | 173

no room for supply ships, let c-17 do what Liberty ships do
nothing like 1991 either
Posted by: paddy | Jul 15 2023 18:46 utc | 169
———————————————————-
The Military Sealift Command (MSC) controls the replenishment and military transport ships of the US Navy. There are usually a good number of them docked in Norfolk VA and fewer scattered across other US seaports, there is even a RoRo in Wilmington NC, nor far from USMC camp LeJeune.
There are enough pics of rolling stock and supplies coming off MSC ships in Europe. There are also cargo airplanes landing around the clock still maybe in Poland, not far from the Ukraine border.
I do not know that there is a letup in supply. Someone might have mentioned it by now.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 15 2023 23:16 utc | 174

No shortage of F16s for Iran and Syria ….
… might we even see a fire-fight over Syria?
more F-16s
US to send F-16 fighter jets to Gulf amid Iran shipping tensions
US defence official said Washington is considering options amid growing aggression by Russian planes in skies over Syria.
[on Iran etc.] … then
The defence official also told reporters the US is considering a number of military options to address increasing Russian aggression in the skies over Syria. The official declined to detail the options but said the US will not cede any territory and will continue to fly in the western part of Syria as part of operations against ISIL (ISIS) fighters.
Russian military activity in Syria, which has increased in frequency and aggression towards US forces since March, stems from growing cooperation and coordination between Moscow, Tehran and the Syrian government to try to pressure the US to leave Syria, the official said.
The most recent incident was on Friday morning when a Russian aircraft flew repeatedly over the al-Tanf garrison in eastern Syria, where US forces are training Syrian allies and monitoring ISIL activity.
The official said the Russian An-30 aircraft was collecting intelligence on the base. The US did not have fighter aircraft in the area and took no direct action against the Russian flight, the official said.
There are about 900 US forces in the country, and others move in and out to conduct missions targeting ISIL. [and … er .. stealing Oil …]
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/15/us-to-send-f-16-fighter-jets-to-gulf-amid-iran-shipping-tensions
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 15 2023 22:14 utc | 164 [on Not Ukraine thread]

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 15 2023 23:17 utc | 175

Echo Chamber @ 130
Can anybody who knows a hell of a lot more about the military than me. Explain to me why so many people think the Ukrainian army is about to collapse ?
Response: Echo Chamber good question. I am not saying I know “a lot more about the military” than you. But this is my assessment.
If the Russians do have the fire power advantages that has been touted, then the Ukrainian army has been doing a tremendous job at holding the line and actually making small advances in some areas. I think the Ukrainian army is able to quickly move its troops to where they are needed along the zero line. I don’t think the Russians are so flexible.
There are a lot of explanations for why the Russians have not advanced much. In fact, a year ago they held signicantly more territory than they do today.
Looking at military history there are often long periods when neither side advances much followed by short periods where one side makes significant advances. I think we are coming up on one of those short periods of time when one side makes significant advances. But, then too, we could still be one of those long stretches where neither army advances much.

Posted by: young | Jul 15 2023 23:22 utc | 176

Intelligent Dasein @ 142
Alexander Mercouris began his video yesterday by wishing everyone in france a happy Bastille Day and announcing his firm belief that the French Revolution advanced the causes of France, of Europe, and of humanity.
I think I am done with this man.
Response: If I rejected all those whom I disagreed with on one or more issues, I would be quite lonely indeed!
Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforu at the Duran are some of the best at presenting an accurate overall geo-political view.
I will continue to listen to them. Yet, I certainly don’t agree with them on every thing.

Posted by: young | Jul 15 2023 23:34 utc | 177

Posted by: whirlX @ 153
Collapsing of Ukrainian army narrative was started after RF liberated Lisichansk conglomerate and a momentum where everyone claimed that RF will now roll on to Rzeszow, as Ukraine is broken there. However that was not the case, and it is certainly not today.
Safely, one can see that RF in Ukraine has a dominance, but not an impunity.
Also one should stop thinking about independent Ukrainian army, as it is really a NATO army, consisting of, basically NATO forces, mixed in equal or bigger quantities along certain front-li
Response: After the RF took the “Lisichansk” conglomerate on July 3, 2022, many were led to believe that Russia would quickly advance thereafter in the Donbas. That obviously did not happen. Your explanation of how certain commentators drove the “collapsing of Ukrainian army narrative” is accurate.

Posted by: young | Jul 15 2023 23:51 utc | 178

Lex @ 156
“I am not suggesting that NATO is no threat. It could do substantial damage to Russia, especially initially. But it would come at significant cost and unless overwhelmingly and immediately effective, will fail. That is the greatest danger because US leadership would be faced with admitting defeat or going nuclear.”
Response: The USA can’t afford to admit defeat. Such an admission would further accelerate de-dollarization. The only way that the USA can hold onto its world reserve currency status of the United States Dollar (USD) is to defeat Russia. This in turn would put fear into the rest of the world and allow the USA to continue its hegemony for many more years and perhaps decades.
It is becoming painfully obvious to the West that their needed defeat of Russia is not going to happen on the battlefield. So, they will look to other means such as assassinations of key Russian leaders, stirring up internal turmoil within Russia, hopefully causing interal revolution, or buying off key Russian players.
Probably the State Department, US military, and the CIA have other tactics that might also work. If all their plans continually fail to bring down the RF, then the only alternative left is a nuclear first strike.
The problem with this last option is that Russia could obtain intel of when this is planned and prempt the USA’s plans. I suspect that the bear already has USA’s escalation game plan along with associated dates.

Posted by: young | Jul 16 2023 0:08 utc | 179

Montanamotor | Jul 14 2023 19:55 utc | 45
—————————————————–
Pincer movement from North to South coming from Belarus to Odessa, combined with D-Day landings is viable, theoretically.
A few weeks ago, I was at Omaha Beach in France. The supply line preparation and execution required enormous effort in addition to the conduct of the assault itself.
A smaller scale preparation would be visible for all intelligence to see. If the Ukies are worn out and are out of ammo, I would feel better about it. There will be no direct NATO boots on the ground, sheep dipping can only go so far.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 16 2023 0:15 utc | 180

Dmitry Orlov on Ukraine’s cold shoulder from NATO:
The Incredible Shrinking NATO

Ukraine is a different story altogether. There, the Ukrainians, with their mismatched hand-me-down Western armor, are being asked to penetrate three lines of hardened Russian defenses. After about a month of effort and staggering losses of men and equipment, they haven’t yet been able to reach the first defensive line. The sight of Western armor ablaze does not make good advertising. Consequently, the US defense contractors must be very eager to stop this steady stream of negative advertising for their products to stop right this second — before their reputations end up completely ruined; hence the unseemly haste with which the entire Ukrainian project is being orphaned.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 16 2023 0:25 utc | 181

I feel like the F-16 topic is a token effort.
They will not supply enough, the planes are not game changing, the pilots will not be well trained and the logistics will be difficult. The Ruskies will make of swatting those things out of the air which will pile more humiliation on west/US.
The west bills Ukraine for the equipment, an accounting trick so they dont have to recognize the expense and also giving equipment to war effort would make them party to war.
Mercouris talked about Bidens comments saying Russia will seek negotiation as it has been defeated. But I think clearly situation is reverse. The threat of Russian offensive is cloud on Bidens election – honestly his admin is a disaster, but I suspect he is in good sted with the owners.

Posted by: jared | Jul 16 2023 10:21 utc | 182

Many people and the general public who dont follow the events closely, cannot grasp concept of a battle which is not for territory. Its as if looking at an event which is only visible in the radio frequency spectrum – you may understand conceptually but cannot see.
The metric is casualties, machines destroyed, ammo expended.
We cannot see it.
At some point there may be a shift to territorial. The Dnieper is perfect boundary and Kiev under seige will be excellent pressure point. US may want to settle before that can begin. But US has destroyed trust – Russia needs to enforce conditions, not agree them.

Posted by: jared | Jul 16 2023 10:39 utc | 183

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