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Much Ado About Nothing
A bunch of current headlines are scary:
Then there is the real world in which wheat is produced and traded internationally:
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The peak in summer 2022 was caused by the war in Ukraine and not natural. Since then prices have moved with the usual ups and downs towards a rather normal level. When the Black Sea grain deal ended they stayed within their previous range.
Meanwhile the main grain elevator at the port of Odessa, which presumably has been used as part of the vaunted Ukrainian air-defense, successfully interdicted a Kalibr missile.
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More wheat is coming to the markets from other producers than Ukraine. During the next year, even without grain from Ukraine, prices for wheat and corn may actually come down:
World wheat supplies are strong following exceptionally high exports from Australia and Russia and a rebound in Canadian shipments after droughts disrupted last year’s season. After falling for years, global stocks may finally rise in 2023. As for corn, Ukraine’s shortfall may well be filled by expected record sales from Brazil, reckons Alexis Ellender of Kpler, a data firm.
So this is much ado about nothing. Globally Ukraine just isn't important at all.
Ukraine Sitrep – Reality Defeats The War Narrative
At the beginning of the war in Ukraine I pointed out that the false narrative of ‘Ukraine is winning’ which the ‘western’ propaganda steadily promoted would not win the real war on the ground.
As the war continued I made the point again and again.
In this week’s SCF column Alastair Crooke makes the same point in much more detail.
A Bonfire of the Vanities
Hubris consists in believing that a contrived narrative can, in and of itself, bring victory. It is a fantasy that has swept through the West – most emphatically since the 17th century. Recently, the Daily Telegraph published a ridiculous nine minute video purporting to show that ‘narratives win wars’, and that set-backs in the battlespace are incidentals: What matters is to have a thread of unitary narrative articulated, both vertically and horizontally, throughout the spectrum – from the special forces’ soldier in the field through to the pinnacle of the political apex.
The gist of it is that ‘we’ (the West) have compelling a narrative, whilst Russia’s is ‘clunky’ – ‘Us winning therefore, is inevitable’.
It is easy to scoff, but nonetheless we can recognise in it a certain substance (even if that substance is an invention). Narrative is now how western élites imagine the world.
…
The weakness to this new ‘liberal’ authoritarianism is that its key narrative myths can get busted. One just has; slowly, people begin to speak reality.
Ukraine: How do you win an unwinnable war? Well, the élite answer has been through narrative. By insisting against reality that Ukraine is winning, and Russia is ‘cracking’. But such hubris eventually is busted by facts on the ground. Even the western ruling classes can see their demand for a successful Ukrainian offensive has flopped. At the end, military facts are more powerful than political waffle: One side is destroyed, its many dead become the tragic ‘agency’ to upending dogma.
Even as reality seeps out the narrative of a ‘successful’ western battle tactics in form of combined arms warfare gets reinforced.
Ukraine aims to sap Russia’s defenses, as U.S. urges a decisive breakthrough – Washington Post
Cont. reading: Ukraine Sitrep – Reality Defeats The War Narrative
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-171
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-170
I am currently working on a longer and surprisingly difficult piece which I may or may not finish today.
In the meantime I will leave you with this:
News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-169
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-168
Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:
> “The new policy embodied in Oct. 7 is: Not only are we not going to allow China to progress any further technologically, we are going to actively reverse their current state of the art,” Allen says. C.J. Muse, a senior semiconductor analyst at Evercore ISI, put it this way: “If you’d told me about these rules five years ago, I would’ve told you that’s an act of war — we’d have to be at war.” <
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-168
AP Obfuscates The Real Black Sea Grain Deal Numbers
Just two days ago I wrote about Grain Deal Shenanigans and summarized:
The grain deal had two parts. One was the access of ships to Ukrainian harbors. The other was the normal export of grain and fertilizer from Russia.
While Russia had facilitated the first part of the deal the 'West' had collectively blocked the second part.
The lengthy creation of exclusive payment channels that can be blocked and controlled by the 'West', as Guterres now offers, is not a solution that Russia will support.
When you see the next headline about 'Russia blocking Ukrainian exports to hungry people' keep the above in mind.
Today I stumbled over a new Associated Press piece of the kind I had warned about:
Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia's war matters to the world
It starts:
Agreements that the United Nations and Turkey brokered with Ukraine and Russia to allow food and fertilizer to get from the warring nations to parts of the world where millions are going hungry have eased concerns over global food security. But they face increasing risks.
It then asserts:
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed 32.8 million metric tons (36.2 million tons) of food to be exported from Ukraine since last August, more than half to developing countries, including those getting relief from the World Food Program.
Are half of the Ukrainian grain exports really going to 'developing countries'?
I snooped around a bit to find the numbers. The United Nations has a Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre website with some general explanations and detailed data.
Under 'Vessel Movements' there is a link to an excellent Google spreadsheet which provides cargo totals by destination and commodity:
Cont. reading: AP Obfuscates The Real Black Sea Grain Deal Numbers
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-167
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Pentagon Dragging Its Feet Over F-16 Gifts To Ukraine
Pushed by the weapon industry the U.S. Defense Department is dragging its feet over the delivery of F-16 airplanes to Ukraine:
Pentagon: Ukraine battlefield situation currently ‘not ideal’ for F-16 deployment
The battlefield conditions in Ukraine are currently “not ideal” for the employment of F-16 fighter jets, said Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of operations of the Joint Staff, on July 13.
“The conditions right now for the employment of the F-16s are probably not – they’re probably not ideal,” the general said at a press briefing.
“I mean, the Russians still possess some air defense capability. They have air capability. And the number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what’s going on right now,” he clarified.
Lockheed-Martin, which still builds and sells the F-16 to various countries, is obviously not happy that the markets will soon learn that the F-16 have no fu**ing chance against modern Russian fighter planes and air-defenses.
Their coming destruction will scream “Buy Russian!” to the world and several countries will probably switch their provider and do so.
Use as open thread for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Syria Outmaneuvers ‘West’, Regains Legitimacy
Since 2014 the United Nations delivered humanitarian supplies to the al-Qaeda infested north-western ‘rebel’ region in Syria (marked green on the map below). A UN Security Council decision provided the necessary backing.
Coming from Turkey the UN convoys passed mostly through the Bab al-Hawa crossing, east of Hatay in south Turkey. The ‘authorities’ in the north-western area, i.e. al-Qaeda, used the distribution of the goods to keep control of the population.
Source: Syria.liveUAmap – bigger
After the February earth-quake the Syrian government opened two other crossings from Turkey. But most of the UN goods kept flowing through Bab al-Hawa.
The Syrian government has said that all goods should go through the territory its controls and not through Turkey. The terrorists in north-west have largely boycotted and blocked crossings from Syrian government controlled areas into their enclave.
Syria and the Russian Federation have insisted that the UN Security Council decision should be modified or ended and not renewed.
On Tuesday the new attempt for another renewal failed. Russia vetoed the ‘western’ supported resolution and proposed a different one which failed to gain the necessary quorum.
Without the authorization of the Security Council the UN had no legal way to continue the convoys. Today the Syrian government made a surprise move and offered its approval to keep Bab al-Hawa open for the UN convoys:
Cont. reading: Syria Outmaneuvers ‘West’, Regains Legitimacy
Grain Deal Shenanigans
In July 2022 the UN General Secretary and Turkey brokered a deal with the Russian Federation under which the Ukraine would be allowed to export grain by shipping it from Ukraine through the Black Sea to other countries. A second part of that agreement included the relief of sanctions that block or hinder Russian export of grain and fertilizer.
The deal came to pass after Ukraine had falsely claimed that Russia had mined the sea route to Ukrainian ports. The mines had been laid by Ukraine:
On Friday, the Ukrainian foreign ministry official said Ukraine had placed some mines. “We have installed naval mines in the exercise of our right to self-defence as stipulated under the Article 51 of the UN Charter”.
Some of those mines broke free, drifted towards Turkey and endangered civil shipping.
There were also loud claims that Ukrainian grain was needed to feed the hungry of the world.
The deal was prolonged twice but now Russia has said that it will end it. The sanctions against Russia agricultural export bank, Rosselkhozbank which was disconnected from the central payment provider SWIFT, and the inability of Russia and others to get insurances for ships exporting from Russia are the main deal breakers:
Cont. reading: Grain Deal Shenanigans
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-166
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-165
News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …
Please Support Moon of Alabama
Dear Readers,
twice a year I ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going.
Most of you who come here value my analyses. Others are fond of MoA's vivid, if at times overcrowded comment section. I am very proud to host and nurture it, to the best of my abilities. Here is what one of our frequent contributors says about it:
Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17
This website is a tribute not just to the proprietor but to the idea of democracy. The general conclusions reached here over the past nine months (for example) have consistently outperformed the media, the Academy and the political castes which amount to an incredibly expensive and complex and enormously staffed engine designed -in theory at least- to arrive at a realistic assessment of the situation.
Cont. reading: Please Support Moon of Alabama
In Pictures – Zelenski’s Visits NATO Summit
Is anyone missing? No? Good.
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Who, again, is this dude? He asking for what?
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NATO Says It Will Invite Ukraine Some Day, Resisting Calls to Act Soon
NATO declared on Tuesday that Ukraine would be invited to join the alliance, but did not say how or when, disappointing its president but reflecting the resolve by President Biden and other leaders not to be drawn directly into Ukraine’s war with Russia. …
It's a bit lonely here:
Cont. reading: In Pictures – Zelenski’s Visits NATO Summit
NATO’s Big Climb Down
From the:
Vilnius Summit Communiqué
Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius 11 July 2023:
11. We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in NATO. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and today we recognise that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan. Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance, and has made substantial progress on its reform path. In line with the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine and the 2009 Complement, Allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required. NATO Foreign Ministers will regularly assess progress through the adapted Annual National Programme. The Alliance will support Ukraine in making these reforms on its path towards future membership. We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.
The statement 'when Allies agree and conditions are met' sets arguably a higher bar than the 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration had promised:
23. NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations. We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May. The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership. Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for MAP. Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications. We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting. Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.
Also note that the 'conditions', just like the rules in the 'rules based order', are undefined. It seems like any NATO member will be able to define its own ones.
Added:
Cont. reading: NATO’s Big Climb Down
Ukraine SitRep: ‘Mosquito’ Tactics – S-200 Land Attacks
The U.S./NATO doctrine, as it had been taught to the Ukrainian units that were prepared for the counter-offensive, has failed.
As a comment allegedly made on a forum of veterans of the West Point Academy describes it:
Classic attacks under our combat regulations involve the preliminary suppression and destruction of enemy defensive positions by artillery and aircraft, as well as the simultaneous destruction of its combat controls to the depth of the defense zone and the prevention of the approaches of its reserves. Since Ukrainians have almost no aviation and they are significantly inferior to the Russians in the amount of artillery, classic attacks lead to nothing but a massive loss of expensive military equipment on the way to Russian positions, disorganization and demoralization of attackers with subsequent retreat. Almost three weeks of such attacks could not break through the Russian support band, in addition, as I was told by the G-3 from USAR EUR-AF in Stuttgart, they lost up to a quarter of our Bradleys, and they are now forced to urgently send two companies of Bradleys and a large quantity of other equipment to replenish and restore the combat readiness of two brigades of the Ukrainian strike unit.
When I was in officer school, pre-1991, NATO was less dependent on air-superiority than it is today. We also had some good air defense systems. Our artillery was not superior to the Soviet one but was well layered – from short, medium to long ranged systems – and would have created very significant damages. We also had good pioneer equipment that allowed for the crossing rivers and ditches as well as serious mine fields.
All this changed after the 1991 Gulf war in which U.S. air superiority and tank fist destroyed the Iraqi defense forces. That war was misconstrued as a big win when it in fact was simply the effect of a by far superior professional force over a unmotivated conscript army with old and often defunct weapons.
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: ‘Mosquito’ Tactics – S-200 Land Attacks
Yellen’s Visit To China Has Failed
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen visited China. There she tried to press the worlds biggest economy on several issues.
None of these points are in China's interest. In the U.S. Chinese companies are treated badly. U.S. financed climate investments in foreign countries, which are small, usually come with additional extraordinary demands that benefit the donating country rather than the receiving one. China does this differently. Fentanyl is not a global problem rather a specific U.S. one the causes of which are general social problems China and other have avoided to have.
The last demand Yellen made was even more crazy. She called for a full turn of China towards neoliberal policies:
"I pressed them on our concerns about China's unfair economic practices," [Yellen] said, citing barriers to access for foreign firms and problems involving intellectual property. She added that a more market-oriented system in China "would not only be in the interests of the U.S. and other countries. It would be better for the Chinese economy, as well."
Would China be where it is today if it had privatized its banking system and state owned companies? Would China be richer if it had let U.S. vulture funds buy up and bankrupt Chinese companies? Would it have managed to lift 800 million of its citizens from poverty if it had followed the economic advice of the U.S., the IMF or World Bank?
The answer to these questions is of course an emphatic "No".
Why Yellen thinks she can impress China with advice for a 'more market-oriented system', even as the U.S. blocks Chinese investments, sanctions Chinese companies and limits sales of certain products to China, is beyond me.
Yellen's visit failed to achieve anything. She had some talks with Chinese officials but achieved nothing. She lectured and made demands that no one in China will be willing to fulfill.
The Chinese side for one seems unimpressed by her performance:
Yellen mentioned multiple times the US is seeking a healthy competition with China rather than a "winner-take-all" approach. While this may sound good, the key lies in how we define "healthy competition." Is it a US-style one in which the geopolitical appetite of the US is satisfied while China unconditionally cooperates? Or is it based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation? The root cause of the challenges in the China-US relationship lies in Washington's flawed perception of China. Unless the issue of the 'first button' is addressed, no matter how wonderful the ideas and wishes may be, they will remain nothing more than castles in the air.
Unless the U.S. accepts China as equal the relations between the countries will not turn around. The U.S. can grow with China only when it accepts that China is different from itself and has its own path towards further development.
As neither is the today's dominant viewpoint a further deterioration of the relations, largely to the disadvantage of the U.S., is the most likely prospect.
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-164
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-163
Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:
> Q: Thanks, Jen. There are reports of illegal cluster bombs and vacuum bombs being used by the Russians. If that’s true, what is the next step of this administration? And is there a red line for how much violence will be tolerated against civilians in this manner that’s illegal and potentially a war crime?
MS. PSAKI: It is — it would be. I don’t have any confirmation of that. We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime. <
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-163
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