Grain Deal Shenanigans
In July 2022 the UN General Secretary and Turkey brokered a deal with the Russian Federation under which the Ukraine would be allowed to export grain by shipping it from Ukraine through the Black Sea to other countries. A second part of that agreement included the relief of sanctions that block or hinder Russian export of grain and fertilizer.
The deal came to pass after Ukraine had falsely claimed that Russia had mined the sea route to Ukrainian ports. The mines had been laid by Ukraine:
On Friday, the Ukrainian foreign ministry official said Ukraine had placed some mines. "We have installed naval mines in the exercise of our right to self-defence as stipulated under the Article 51 of the UN Charter".
Some of those mines broke free, drifted towards Turkey and endangered civil shipping.
There were also loud claims that Ukrainian grain was needed to feed the hungry of the world.
The deal was prolonged twice but now Russia has said that it will end it. The sanctions against Russia agricultural export bank, Rosselkhozbank which was disconnected from the central payment provider SWIFT, and the inability of Russia and others to get insurances for ships exporting from Russia are the main deal breakers:
Russia insists the agreement hasn’t worked for its own exports, blaming Western sanctions for hindering financing and insurance.While sanctions don’t affect food and fertilizer, Moscow is seeking carveouts from restrictions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, as well as movement on its ammonia, a key ingredient in fertilizer, to a Ukrainian Black Sea port. But the ammonia pipeline has been damaged in the war, the U.N. said.
“There is still time to implement the part of the agreements that pertains to our country. So far, this part has not been fulfilled,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week. “And so at the moment, unfortunately, we don’t see any particular grounds for extending this deal.”
The ammonia pipeline had been blown up by Ukraine. Russia wants a guarantee that this does not happen again.
It had also turned out that the flow of grain from Ukraine did not go to hungry people:
A recent investigation by the Austrian outlet eXXpress, however, says that didn't happen. Almost half of the Ukrainian wheat and corn exports to the EU ended up feeding pigs in Spain to produce its world-famous jamon.According to eXXpress, only 15% of the exports ended up in the countries at risk of famine, including 167,000 tons in Ethiopia and 65,000 tons in Sudan. Spain, on the other hand, received 2.9 million tons of wheat and corn from Ukraine.
There is also significant less need to export grain from Ukraine by sea. Some of its grain exports now go by land and river to Romania and from there into the world. Other exports flood European countries with cheap grain. This has led to local dislocation of agricultural markets especially in Moldavia and Poland.
For lack of men and diesel the new harvest in Ukraine will also likely be much lower than in previous years:
In 2023, Ukrainian farmers can sow 45% of grain fields and harvest 60% less grain than in 2022, Alex Lissitsa, CEO of the Ukrainian club of agricultural business (UCAB), estimated.Such sharp negative production dynamics are a consequence of several factors. In addition, abandoned fields are associated with a drop in productivity, low exports and soaring inflation. If this forecast comes true, this year's grain harvest will be the weakest since the Ukrainian independence.
Still, the UN General Secretary is trying to offer a new deal:
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed to Russian President that he extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of grain from Ukraine in return for connecting a subsidiary of Russia's agricultural bank to the SWIFT international payment system, sources told Reuters.A key demand by Moscow is the reconnection of the Russian agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT international payment network. It was cut off by the European Union in June 2022 over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. An EU spokesperson said in May the EU was not considering reinstating Russian banks.
However, the EU is considering connecting to SWIFT a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank to allow specifically for grain and fertilizer transactions, three sources familiar with discussions told Reuters on Wednesday. The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Guterres has proposed to Putin that Russia allow the Black Sea grain deal to continue for several months, giving the EU time to connect a Rosselkhozbank subsidiary to SWIFT, two of those sources familiar with discussions told Reuters.
There are two problems with this subsidiary solution. A fitting Rosselkhozbank subsidiary does not exist. Creating it would take time. If only the now impossible export payments would flow through a subsidiary it would give the EU some control over those exports. It would know where those were flowing to and could then press the receivers. There would also still be the problem of U.S-dollar payments to Rosselkhozbank and Russian exporters. The EU can not solve those but the U.S. can by lifting its sanctions against Rosselkhozbank.
Russia has thus already dismissed the Guterres plan:
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last week that Moscow would not be satisfied with such a proposal because it would take "many months" to open a subsidiary and another three months to connect it to SWIFT.She also rejected a U.N. attempt to create an alternative payment channel between Rosselkhozbank and U.S. bank JP Morgan.
The non-existing subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank would give the EU some control over Russian exports. An exclusive U.S-dollar payment channel between Rosselkhozbank and JP Morgan would give the U.S. a similar instrument.
In summary:
The grain deal had two parts. One was the access of ships to Ukrainian harbors. The other was the normal export of grain and fertilizer from Russia.
While Russia had facilitated the first part of the deal the 'West' had collectively blocked the second part.
The lengthy creation of exclusive payment channels that can be blocked and controlled by the 'West', as Guterres now offers, is not a solution that Russia will support.
When you see the next headline about 'Russia blocking Ukrainian exports to hungry people' keep the above in mind.
Posted by b on July 13, 2023 at 15:42 UTC | Permalink
next page »I'll believe Russia is cancelling the grain deal when I see it and not before, because so far Russia simply caves on everything. They constantly make red lines and then ignore when those lines are crossed.
Since the start of this conflict, and understanding the history that led up too it and Washington's and NATO's provoking of it, I have been a supporter of Russia in this SMO. But so many questions about their conduct of this war, so many inconsistencies, so many provocations unanswered that it leads me to question either their leadership in their Ministry of Defense, or even worse.
There is a growing number of conspiracy theorists on telegram who believe that this is a scripted conflict in which the west and Russia are in collusion with each other. I don't believe it, but I can certainly understand why they feel the way they do. Something has been very wrong with the way Russia has conducted this war from the start. I see regular articles and hints that those in Western Ukraine live their lives as if there is no conflict going on at all. Just a few minutes ago I saw an article on Zero Hedge saying Ukrainian refugees are taking vacations going back to Ukraine. I have ignored these types of articles for a long time but I can do so no longer.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 13 2023 16:04 utc | 2
With regards to the exports.
Romania is having a bottleneck at their harbors. So there might be an increased amount of grain flowing from the Ukraine to Romania and then the world but more and more grain is just being stored in Romania due to the port limitations.
Another things most people overlook is that the EU has reduced any form of taxation on imported cereals (and a few other products) from the Ukraine to 0. Polish farmers are vocally unhappy about this since they cannot compete with the price of Ukraine exports due to that.
Posted by: Who Cares | Jul 13 2023 16:15 utc | 3
There's also another factor with the grain deal. As it ceases to exist, the grain rom Russia will inevitably flow out of ports in the Far East and China, leading to yet another commodity trading moving outside western insurance and pricing system. Ukraine is producing heavily curtailed volumes due to Biden's persistence on continuing the war.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2023 16:16 utc | 4
Alternatively, Guterres could do his job and declare the unilateral US/UK/EU sanctions what they are – illegal under international law and actually sanction anyone who implements them. But, of course, that wouldn't keep "The West" in the drivers seat.
Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Jul 13 2023 16:18 utc | 5
Alternatively, Guterres could do his job and declare the unilateral US/UK/EU sanctions what they are – illegal under international law and actually sanction anyone who implements them. But, of course, that wouldn't keep "The West" in the drivers seat.
Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Jul 13 2023 16:18 utc | 5
The only thing that the UN seems interested in these days is totalitarian bureaucracy for the population of the earth.
Actual regards for international laws.
Not so much!
Posted by: jpc | Jul 13 2023 16:24 utc | 6
Lavrov also spoke about the Grain Deal in answer to a question at today's presser. Essentially it's now dead and something else will be formulated.
Sea transport is 1/10th the cost of rail, and 1/30th the cost of truck transport.
Russia needs the grain deal to sell its grains competitively to those who will buy.
Russia needs to sell it gas too. The countries bordering Russia, besides Belarus, tacitly support Russia at best, including China. They would not by transport inflated grain out of the goodness of their hearts, and Russia needs foreign currency to buy what it can not domestically produce.
The same goes for Russian gas pipes, wherein the transportation is almost free compared to other methods, not including transit fees.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 13 2023 16:31 utc | 8
A word about threats of a 'coming famine' - if you restrict the export of food to countries where people breed like rodents, as long as the overall restriction is gradual you won't create a famine, nor even make people hungrier (because you can't do worse than subsistence). You will simply limit their numbers.
I mean, in India rapid population growth burned up the productive capacity of the green revolution and now the Indian people remain limited to bare subsistence - about 150 kg woodgrain per person per year (it's about triple that in China). This is worse than late medieval England! The Indian fertility rate has fallen to about 2, but not in a good way: because it is physically impossible for them to have more. But India is now a major exporter of rice - how can that happen? Easy. If you take food away from people at subsistence, as long as you do it gradually, you only limit the number of children they can barely afford to feed.
Why should we give food aid to places like India, when places like India are exporting food?
Giving food to the third world is as pointless as feeding a mass of hungry rats. You will only end up with a larger mass of poverty. That's why the Iron Law of Development is that first people have fewer children than their current physical maximum (however large or small that number) and only then is it possible for technology and markets etc. to slowly increase real per capita wealth. (At least without an open frontier and for countries bigger than a single city).
Posted by: TG | Jul 13 2023 16:54 utc | 9
people have been posting this link for the past few days here at moa.. it doesn't hurt to post it again... it is worth watching.. i recommend it to others... let us know when part 2 comes out.. thanks...Posted by: james | Jul 13 2023 14:09 utc | 6
This is probably fifth or sixth post with the same link.
You are very polite with people who do not bother to read comments at all.
Posted by: 2+2=5 | Jul 13 2023 16:56 utc | 10
When talking about the Ukraine-Russia grain deal, it is important to note that western multinational corporations and banks control a large amount of Ukrainian agriculture and agribusiness.
That was one motive of the west in wanting the grain deal - to help multinational corporate profits. It also helped Ukraine to buy weapons from western military industries with the proceeds.
This is an old article, so there may be other developments since. But it points out how much Ukrainian agriculture depends on Western companies.
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/01/28/corporate-takeover-ukrainian-agriculture
Posted by: Belle | Jul 13 2023 16:59 utc | 11
@Jeff Harrison (#5):
There is a reason that no one bothers with that. The US would block/veto that kind of resolution/agreement/treaty or simply not sign it and what will the world do then?
@jpe (#6):
Oh yes so totalitarian that they can't even ban the use cluster bombs that the US itself uses and is now exporting to Ukraine.
Do note that neither Ukraine or Russia has signed that treaty and both have been using them already to, in case of Ukraine, obstruct logistics and, for both Ukraine and Russia, re-mine corridors cleared to allow vehicles to cross the others defensive zone(s).
The UN is a coffee klatch and only when enough members agree they can put out a treaty or agreement which members can voluntarily sign. Or in the case of the permanent security council members, if stuff is important enough that it gets referred there, veto it.
Posted by: Who Cares | Jul 13 2023 17:05 utc | 12
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 13 2023 16:04 utc | 2
“Something has been very wrong with the way Russia has conducted this war from the start.”
You mean the fact that they are winning and that the civilian to military death ratio is super low? Yeah, that would send the f16 of maverick into a tailspin I suppose…
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 13 2023 17:11 utc | 13
Offer the wheat FOB a Russian port, payable in ruble or gold.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 13 2023 17:15 utc | 14
thanks b... i appreciate it, and especially the last line which i quote again for everyone..
"When you see the next headline about 'Russia blocking Ukrainian exports to hungry people' keep the above in mind."
@ Jeff Harrison | Jul 13 2023 16:18 utc | 5
exactly.. thanks for saying that...
@ 2+2=5 | Jul 13 2023 16:56 utc | 10
offering support and gratitude are healthy activities.. i encourage it in myself and glad you appreciate it.. thanks for your comment!
Posted by: james | Jul 13 2023 17:16 utc | 15
TG 9
Rats
Shakespeare addressed this abusive style of language in his incomplete play Sir Thomas More.
From memory, More asks the London crowds how they would feel if the tables were turned, ( for example by a nuclear exchange in Europe ) into victims of poverty and hunger and other people who were at that time safe and well-mourished were to use these insidious comparisons to rats about us in our hour of need.
How would you like it if RoW decided we were rats they didn't need to feed?
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 13 2023 17:26 utc | 16
The U.S. bellows, 'we have no sanctions against Russian food and fertilizer exports, only against delivery and payment'
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jul 13 2023 17:43 utc | 17
Giyane@16
Well said. The rat expert @9 is probably unaware of the long history of imperialist countries plundering every form of wealth, from skilled labour to food grains, from India and much of the rest of the world.
As to discussing the demographic histories of countries with low life expectancy and bad living conditions that would be to introduce reality into TG's cartoon like fascist universe.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 13 2023 17:58 utc | 18
I doubt whether Russia still cares about ammonia. They are building an alternative pipeline to Taganrog that should be ready at the end of this year.
It seems that Turkey somehow makes a considerable amount of money on those Ukrainian grain exports and those exports could play a role in the at the moment rather turbulent relations between Russia and Turkey.
Posted by: Wim | Jul 13 2023 18:05 utc | 19
Jörgen Hassler | Jul 13 2023 17:11 utc | 13
Entire cities are turned to rubble. Dams are blown up creating catastrophic ecological problems, mines are seeded that will be killing civilians for decades. All I see are Russian speaking populations getting destroyed in Eastern Ukraine while Western Ukraine goes on as if there isn't even a war going on.
Why are the command centers not turned to rubble. Why are the bridges and railroads still functioning bringing up military hardware that continue to kill Russian soldiers and civilians. Why are the lights still on in Kiev when the people of Crimea go without fresh water.
Surely a genius like yourself Jorgen can explain it to a simple mind like myself.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 13 2023 18:12 utc | 20
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 13 2023 18:12 utc | 20
If Russia went full throttle, do you expect cities wouldn't be turned to rubble, and dams and nuclear plants not blown up?
DPR and LPR were shelled before the SMO. Crimes had no canal access before the SMO.
Your questions have been answered here hundreds of times, so why do you keep asking? I know you post often enough to have read them.
It is a good thing Kiev citizens hardly notice the war, while Russia is well aware of it. It makes them less urgent, less prepared, less active in intelligence gathering, sloppier in keeping secrets. If they think nothing is really going on, the wat is not serious, then they make irrational decisions, like helping Russia determine strike effectiveness by posting explosions to telegram.
Victory, Not Vengeance.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 13 2023 18:24 utc | 21
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/01/28/corporate-takeover-ukrainian-agriculture
>>The Ukrainian agricultural sector has been a prime target for foreign private investment and is logically seen by the IMF and World Bank as a priority sector for reform. Both institutions praise the new government's readiness to follow their advice.
If you want to know why we are in Ukraine, or at least one of the reasons, the above comment explains it. With the country wrecked from war and deep in debt, foreign buyers can sweep in and buy up land for pennies on the dollar. That is, just like they did with Russia in the 1990's. Lets see, how much farmland does Bill Gates own just now? He and some other folk have been on a buying streak.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jul 13 2023 18:36 utc | 22
Anglos created grain shortage drama to derail Russian action on Ukraine and clueless moronic Russia fell for it .That shows that Lavrov and his foreign ministry is useless .Putin is really incompetent.being entangled with grain deal in the middle of war is sure sign of moron act of Putin.
Posted by: San | Jul 13 2023 19:07 utc | 23
Belle @ 11:
Thanks for posting that article, it was an interesting read. Dovetails right in with the shock therapy neoliberal reforms the Ukranian government has been implementing while everyone else is distracted by the war.
Something else to take from that article:
The uncertainty caused by social instability usually makes businesses shy away from investment. Unless, of course, some businesses are themselves behind the instability. ATT (and other multinationals) and the Pinochet coup in Chile is an easy example, but history provides many others. Here we see DuPont, Monsanto, and Cargill increasing investment significantly in Ukraine right in the wake of the Euromaidan coup. To me, a clear sign they were at the very least in the loop, if not directly involved. Has anyone seen clearer indications of their involvement?
Posted by: Palm & Needle | Jul 13 2023 19:07 utc | 24
@TG 9
Did some Indian inserted a big bamboo stick on your both orifices especially the back one ?
Indians live better today despite 4 times more population than soon after getting independence from pirate English race which had reduced India from 2nd richest country to the 2nd poorest country within 150 years.
Quote. "I mean, in India rapid population growth burned up the productive capacity of the green revolution "
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jul 13 2023 18:12 utc | 20
I’d be glad to. Problem is that the Russians are a lot better at fighting their wars than I am, so I can’t. I know many bar flies can, but not me.
But I advise you to watch and learn, because history is being made in front of your eyes.
A good start would be understanding that the Russians are fighting a real war. The US never did that. They came close once, when they joined WW2 after england was subdued and Germany more or less beaten, but apart from that what they have engaged in is colonial punitive expeditions. The closer we come to our time, the more common it is that they where unsuccessful.
Russia took on the second strongest military in Europe that was backed by the biggest military alliance in the world. That’s an entirely different task from blowing up goat herders.
Also note that they are fighting a defensive war on what they consider to be Russian territory. That means they don’t want to destroy infrastructure unnecessarily, because they know they are the ones that will have to rebuild it.
It also means that they don’t have a time table. What matters is getting the job done, not fitting the current news cycle.
Then there’s the fact that Ukraine is a neighbouring country. As such it is vital that it is as highly functioning as possible when the war ends: you don’t want a failed state as a forever enemy on your border.
As to what happens in the west of the country, I think you are wrong. The sure sign of that is that half of the country’s population has fled. But even if you are right: does the fact that western Ukrainians live the good life change anything on the front line? No. Would terror bombing Lvov enhance Russias chances of winning the war? No.
Lastly, there’s said to have been an understanding between USnato and Russia that in exchange for Ukraine not hitting Russia proper Russia would not hit command centres with nato personnel. The Ukrainians broke the agreement and Russia responded proportionally. As this conflict is sooner or later going to be settled at the negotiating table, they have no interest in escalating it.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jul 13 2023 19:17 utc | 26
And then there's the question of exactly what those 'empty' grain freighters are carrying back to 404....
The only thing that the UN seems interested in these days is totalitarian bureaucracy for the population of the earth. Actual regards for international laws. Not so much!Posted by: jpc | Jul 13 2023 16:24 utc | 6
All the more reason to disband it.
Posted by: Ian2 | Jul 13 2023 19:45 utc | 28
Alternatively, Guterres could do his job and declare the unilateral US/UK/EU sanctions what they are – illegal under international law and actually sanction anyone who implements them. But, of course, that wouldn't keep "The West" in the drivers seat.
Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Jul 13 2023 16:18 utc | 5
——————————————
Thank you Jeff
Posted by: Exile | Jul 13 2023 19:54 utc | 29
The Christian Science Monitor article is deliberately misleading.
For a detailed account see
Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jul 13 2023 20:18 utc | 31
Sorry, it misfired. You will remember that before the Grain Deal the Ukraine released mines into the Black Sea. The intricate currents there sent them all the way along Romanian and Turkish coast to ultimately turn north and approach the Russian shores in the Black Sea and the Strait of Kerch. The Ukraine was restrained from using mines or any hostilities in the Russian Crimea and beyond. The Russians were monitoring the ships and searched for smuggled goods (you can imagine they might be forbidden steel animals kind of Leopards or Huskies) but I doubt they were able to stop all weapons trafficking thru this grain corridor. So Russia benefited from the deal militarily.
Now Russia feels more confident, it wants to close any maritime traffic that carry arms to Ukraine, or probably is just preparing to advance into the coastal areas with the grain ports such as Odessa.
That simple.
Posted by: VV | Jul 13 2023 20:26 utc | 32
Make no mistake about the importance of the Eastern border for German culture and politics. Indeed, there is always something volatile about a “handicapped” Great Power when a whole new intensity appears in political, economic and historical circumstances, which prompts those in power to turn ideas into reality, and revanchist and imperialistic discourses that were quietly but steadily streaming below the surface of the carefully considered diplomatic efforts begin to probe pan-nationalist expansion.
Germany creates equity in Western Ukraine by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, JULY 13, 2023
Posted by: António Ferrão | Jul 13 2023 20:34 utc | 33
Russia's good guy and softly, softly approach to win over global majority is now at an end. This goodwill will erode if Russia continues to pussyfoot around. Other countries do not have the capacity to withstand pressure from the Hegemon and if they feel that a great power like Russia is equally inadequate than sooner rather than later, will be forced to join in the sanctions.
This game is not new, Iran is a prime example of using sanctions to grab a country by the short and curlies and keep yanking.
Posted by: Suresh | Jul 13 2023 21:15 utc | 34
Antonio Ferrao 33
Without wishing to upset our benign host, my first father in law who spent two years in a German pow camp after flying spitfires, told me that the Germans will never stop making war.
He said there was no.point in him explaining why because I wouldn't be able to believe him.
So thanks for your comment because it explains what the US plan really is, viz to harness German politicians' bitterness against Russia. We will help you , and of course later destroy you.
But politicians are dunces in the class, neither able to make things or organise things to be made, but highly skilled in breaking things fast.
My 18 year old, fully functioning VW Touran car tells me that most Germans are completely different from the Nazi political class.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 13 2023 21:31 utc | 35
Gen. Ivan Popov was the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which has been engaged in heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Popov said he had raised questions about “the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery,” in a voice note published on Telegram late Wednesday.
The recording was posted on the messaging app by Andrey Gurulev, a member of the Russian Parliament and former deputy commander of the Southern Military District.
[CNN, my apologies but all the Western news reads the same]
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 13 2023 21:36 utc | 36
Russian general in Ukraine says he was fired after accusing defense ministry of betraying troops
Skipped the headline, oopsie.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 13 2023 21:37 utc | 37
35
From the political analyst Thierry Myessan at Voltaierenet I have understood that Germany was given thecresponsibikity for running the Syrian War under cover in Adana.
This being a secret mission from the US also directed against Russia.
Who knows, maybe the jackal Erdogan also has designs on the Russian carcase, after Nato's had its share.
Now we know why Russia is saving its best weapons in this SLOMO. They know what's coming next.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 13 2023 21:42 utc | 38
Re: the role of sanctions.
I believe the west uses sanctions in the same way they use military invasion threat.
We know from history, that the military invasion threat has only worked against nations that did not have the fortitude to take whatever punishment the usa invader could dish out, while punishing the usa for its colonial asperations, until it cried uncle and
Scurried back to its comfortable dens, where it claimed victory.
Similarly, sanctions can be used by a committed nation to promote internal replacement for formetr imports, or replacement by more fraternal governments, ready to scalp the usa for its former markets. Indeed, even the usa in its formative years used import taxes to protect home grown industry. For nations wishing to build important industries at home, the sanctions can be used to deflect internal criticism for a policy that costs the public per product, gov replying that it is merely a result of the evil empires sanctions. If you have the backbone to be your own nation, sanctions can be an eneabler for government home grown policies.
Posted by: James j | Jul 13 2023 21:59 utc | 39
Adding to my comment @7 above. Putin has now echoed at his informal press conference what Lavrov said earlier that I'll split between this Grain thread and the current Ukie thread. You'll see that Putin has adopted a Bidenism:
Question: Vladimir Vladimirovich, may I ask? They say that the grain deal is in jeopardy, and that part of the conditions of the Russian Federation relating to our exports, and that Mr. Erdogan has something to tell you about it in person meeting, and that you received a letter from the UN.On this occasion Can you shed some light?
Vladimir Putin: Of course, there are no secrets here.
The fact is that this the deal was originally justified by the UN and the Secretary-General [António Guterres] as a deal aimed first and foremost at helping the poorest countries of the world - in order to prevent famine there.
I want to do it again Emphasize that the rise in food prices, food prices, the fact that It is produced by agriculture in the world as a whole, it is not associated with a special military operation for fertilizers. It is associated with the mistakes of the leading Western economies in the field of finance and investment, including in the energy sector.
For many, For many years, they neglected the basic principles of energy development, got carried away alternative energy sources, did not pay due attention to investments in the oil and gas sector, some countries abandoned nuclear energy.
As a result, we received The result is the opposite of what was expected in the energy sector, and prices crept up. Investment They didn't do it in a timely manner - deficits began to be created there. Now it is gone, but in general, the threat of these deficits due to the fact that there is no investment in the industry, arose, and prices arose. In the field of finance, I have also spoken about this many times.
These are well-known things, They just prefer not to talk about it, because these are obvious punctures in the economic policy of Western countries. What I mean: in the fight against the pandemic Both citizens and individual industries began to support the coronavirus infection Economy. We did it too, but we did it on a reasonable scale. And there - no: They printed a huge amount of money, began to rake in from the world market shovel food to their countries and put the poorest countries in a very It's a difficult situation.
In connection with the beginning of the They decided to blame everything on Russia, as they say, from a sore head to a healthy one. We have absolutely nothing to do with it. Yes of course the use of sanctions as a tool of competition - they use these instruments of sanctions policy have aggravated the situation on world markets food and energy. It was not we who aggravated, but they led to this result by their actions.
And the so-called The grain deal was justified by the desire to support the poorest countries. Already a lot I once said: out of the entire volume of food, primarily grain, exported from the territory of Ukraine, a little over three percent only went to the poorest countries of the world - only three percent with a little. Everything else is well-fed, prosperous Europe. But many European countries began to abandon the Ukrainian Grain. They began to discriminate against Ukrainian grain – not us.
As for the conditions, on which we agreed to ensure the safety of the export of Ukrainian grain, then, Yes, there were clauses of this agreement with the UN, according to which it was necessary Take into account Russia's interests as well. It's logistics, it's insurance, it's movement money associated with paying for our products, and many other points. No problem– I want to emphasise that nothing has been done at all. Everything is a game of one gate. Not a single point related to the fact that there are interests of the Russian Federation, not executed.
Despite this, we have voluntarily extended this so-called deal many times. Repeatedly. Well Listen, that's enough, in the end. We are now being told: you are now once again Agree to the extension, and we will still fulfill the promises made to you.
We'll think about it again If we have a few days, we will think about what to do. But if we are told that they will do it the promises made to us, by the way, were spelled out, among other things, with the UN. And I know that the General the secretary and staff of the United Nations who deal with this problem, they sincerely strive to fulfill, including in relation to I have no doubts about Russia, the relevant conditions. But they do not succeed, because Western countries are not going to fulfill their promises.
As one of the options: not first renewal, and then the fulfillment of promises, but first the fulfillment of promises, And then our participation. What do I mean by that? We can suspend our participation in this transaction, and if everyone once again says that all the promises made to us will be fulfilled, let them fulfill this promise - and we will immediately join this deal. Once again.
Question: Tell me, in this regard, there may be a connection to the SWIFT of the Russian Agricultural Bank, right? One of the conditions.
Vladimir Putin: This is just talk. Although this is one of the conditions. There is still freight. SWIFT is money transfers, yes, it is matters. There are logistics, calls to our ports of foreign ships, and so on further.
Question: Does the UN letter contain a new...
Vladimir Putin: No, I have not seen this new letter, but we are in contact with the staff United Nations. Let me repeat once again: they sincerely strive to ensure that Western countries fulfill their obligations, but they have So far, nothing has worked. And we, I repeat, are told: extend it again. Or you can do this: we will extend exactly at the moment when the data is executed Promises to us.
Question: The deal expires on July 18. How long are we willing to wait for them to start execute?
Vladimir Putin: As long as it takes to fulfill the promises made to us.
A word about threats of a 'coming famine by Posted by: TG | Jul 13 2023 16:54 utc | 9
"I mean, in India rapid population growth burned up the productive capacity of the green revolution and now the Indian people remain limited to bare subsistence.... "
"Giving food to the Third World is as pointless as feeding a mass of hungry rats. You will only end up with a larger mass of poverty. That's why the Iron Law of Development is that first people have fewer children than their current physical maximum (however large or small that number) and only then is it possible for technology and markets etc. to slowly increase real per capita wealth. (At least without an open frontier and for countries bigger than a single city)."
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Monsanto, the chemical company with an outsized influence and impact on international agricultural practices, started producing its genetically modified Roundup Ready crop seeds about 50 years ago. The seeds were introduced after the end of the Vietnam war because veterans and Vietnamese civilians who were exposed the horrible public health effects of chlorinated compounds and herbicides created by Dow Chemical called Agent Orange.
Monsanto was actually trying to figure out how to make an herbicide that wasn't as toxic as Agent Orange, and thus, in 1970, Roundup was born: the active ingredient was glyphosate, a broad-spectrum herbicide that could be sprayed on everything, and killing it.
Then beginning in the 1980s, Monsanto invested heavily in genetic engineering of seeds to see if they could create crops that were resistant too or could tolerate heavy sprayings of Roundup (glyphosate).
These seeds were sold all over the world alone with their Round-Up herbicide, but at a price (a reasonable price in the early days) and a contract that stipulated that one could not save a portion of the seeds to replant the next year but must purchase new seeds from Monsanto. In time Monsanto also engineered a seed that would not reproduce a second crop as well as drought resistant seeds as well. Other chemical and crop engineering companies (like Bayer Crop Science).
India was just one nation who fell into the Monsanto seed trap, so did a lot of American farmers as well. And this is what happened to the "Green Revolution" in India and many other developing nations.
And you TG are a racist in my view: "Giving food to the Third World is as pointless as feeding a mass of hungry rats." Indeed!
Posted by: Ed | Jul 13 2023 22:09 utc | 41
TG--the Green Revolution in India, which was essentially mono-culture, burned up the farmland and available water due to massive over-farming..Mono-culture is a very short term expedient, and should be avoided at all cost....The population increase simply made things worse...
Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 13 2023 22:37 utc | 42
TG @ 9:
The Indian govt did introduce birth control in the second half of the 20th century but the way it went about bringing birth control to the people - namely, forced sterilisation of men in some parts of the country - gave the very idea of birth control and population control a bad reputation. In those days, when Indira Gandhi was Prime Minister, her son Sanjay was in charge of family planning programs (despite not being an elected politician or having an official role in her government) and his methods of carrying out such programs were a disaster, apparently. He died in a helicopter crash in 1980 and perhaps not a few people in India were relieved that he was gone.
The Indians later discovered their own birth control method that sat well with their caste hierarchy and the attitudes and traditions associated with it: because women marry outside their families and require large dowries (which can bankrupt their birth families), people prefer to have sons rather than daughters. The sonograph aka ultrasound machine and availability of abortion became the main form of cheap birth control for millions. Where birth control fails, deliberate malnourishment of girl children or even infanticide can be a first resort.
Anyway, if you care to check global fertility statistics over the past 50 or so years, you will discover fertility rates have been falling across the world and in very few countries are people breeding the way you imagine.
That India exports food is neither here nor there: if the country grows a surplus of one type of grain, why should it not export it to another country that needs it? Through exports, India earns the foreign currency needed to buy other foods and other essential items it needs.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 13 2023 23:38 utc | 43
Offer the wheat FOB a Russian port, payable in ruble or gold.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 13 2023 17:15 utc | 14
Clean and simple. Add BTC to the list of acceptable Payment methods.
Posted by: DjangoCat | Jul 13 2023 23:43 utc | 44
@Acco Hengst #36, 37
Wrong thread. Discuss Popov’s statements in the latest Ukraine Open Thread.
Posted by: S | Jul 13 2023 23:54 utc | 45
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 13 2023 23:38 utc | 43
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Thank you for that very informative comment.
Posted by: Ed | Jul 14 2023 0:06 utc | 46
@Passerby #14:
Offer the wheat FOB a Russian port, payable in ruble or gold.
That is exactly what should be done. Same for fertilizers—both Russian and Belarussian.
Need rubles? Use dollars to buy something Russia needs, e.g., car parts, industrial machinery or electronic components, import it into Russia and sell for rubles. Or just import your own goods into Russia and sell for rubles. The rubles will stay in the Russian jurisdiction the entire time, no need for foreign banks to open correspondent accounts with Russian banks.
There will be no problems with ship insurance because Russian grain and fertilizers are exempt from sanctions.
Posted by: S | Jul 14 2023 0:15 utc | 47
Quote. "I mean, in India rapid population growth burned up the productive capacity of the green revolution "
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25 and assessed as not valid. Sam maybe on paper. I saw desperate lives on rubbish heaps and wealth beyond belief.
Did ya’ll see Lavrov almost mobbed in Indonesia? A foreign minister!
RFK jnr would be a better president of the USA than any of the other contenders so far. Don’t expect perfection it doesn’t exist. And as for his stance on Israel face reality if you want to get elected in the US you must support Israel. The US needs him. We need him
Hahahahahaha, Russia actually imagined the Westernazis would keep their word about the grain deal? That's hilarious.
There was absolutely no justification for signing the grain deal in the first place and there is absolutely no reason to extend it now.
However, I will only believe Putin will cancel the grain deal when I see it cancelled, not before.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jul 14 2023 2:06 utc | 50
Everyone see this yet and have an idea of its significance or not??
sending reservists to Europe presidential edict Atlantic Resolve, say only 3000 men , so might be nothing , but wars start like this
Posted by: hankster | Jul 14 2023 2:28 utc | 51
Putin's unhappiness about Ukrainian grain feeding Spanish pigs is casting pearls before swine. Like a red rag to a bull. The US detests altruism of any kind, Socialist, religious, or even necessity. It worships Mammon the god of profit with a single-mindedness of dedicated ignorance.
Of course Putin doesn't want transactions in dollars, or Swift , or Russian savings back. The US political leverage through sanctions and confiscating savings has turned the entire world against the US.
In a Socialist economy he can afford to subsidise the transport costs and sell Russian grain through the East.
This destroys the dollar, Mammon, right wing bollocksnomics and will help to float a new global currency sooner.
The West will lose the support of its colonial vassals who need the grain.
Better than a Tom and Jerry cartoon.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 14 2023 2:36 utc | 52
reply to:
Everyone see this yet and have an idea of its significance or not??
sending reservists to Europe presidential edict Atlantic Resolve, say only 3000 men , so might be nothing , but wars start like this
Posted by: hankster | Jul 14 2023 2:28 utc | 51
Read that link carefully on the number of troops being sent, it is 3,000 AT ANY ONE TIME. Specifically, "...not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time"
Given that language, he may be going to send our entire military there, "inch by inch, step by step"...That's an old 3 Stooges line, but it certainly fits the Biden cabal.
Posted by: Bonami | Jul 14 2023 2:39 utc | 53
Posted by: Bonami | Jul 14 2023 2:39 utc | 53
Read that link carefully on the number of troops being sent, it is 3,000 AT ANY ONE TIME. Specifically, "...not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time"
Yes, but that really just means only 3000 can TRANSIT there at any ONE TIME. Where they move on to next to accumulate is not clear ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 3:01 utc | 54
Posted by: Bonami | Jul 14 2023 2:39 utc | 53
Read that link carefully on the number of troops being sent, it is 3,000 AT ANY ONE TIME. Specifically, "...not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time"
Yes, but that really just means only 3000 can TRANSIT there at any ONE TIME. Where they move on to next to accumulate is not clear ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 3:01 utc | 55
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25
pirate English race which had reduced India from 2nd richest country to the 2nd poorest country within 150 years.
The book/ research mentioned here quantifies the piracy at US$45 trillion in today's money... So that could pay off the US national debt (imagine!) and leave a fair chunk of change:
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2018/12/19/how-britain-stole-45-trillion-from-india
Posted by: NotSoDeepLurker | Jul 14 2023 3:40 utc | 56
53 Bonami
The grand Old Duke of York did much the same , pure electioneering. May as well used the tools of high office for free promotion . After all it only costs Biden a bit of biro ink to mobilise the US army and then swiftly demobilise them again. Nato will not scare Putin.
They will bring millions of recruits to the Russian side.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 14 2023 3:49 utc | 57
Russia is already stuck with over $2 billion of rupee payments made by India for defence deals over the past year. “Russia has the option of investing its rupee balance in Indian government securities or stock markets, but it is not keen on doing so,” the source said.
Russian solidarity ?
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 4:00 utc | 58
Quote. "I mean, in India rapid population growth burned up the productive capacity of the green revolution "
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14
About as predictable as anything is. The more poor a person (or country) is, the more they focus on the present. So, of course, the down and out countries aren't interested in the hit on income because of the [lower] productive capacity of this green stuff.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jul 14 2023 4:29 utc | 59
54 arch
yes Australia Darwin bases started out the same way. 500 USA troops on training rotation no big deal, its increased to over 5,000 marines at any one time and now includes support for missile batteries and other weapons so would well exceed even double that. Doesnt include the Pine Gap bases that have expanded as well. It was obviously unpalatable to he electorate and neighbor nations so boiling frog stategy was the go.
Posted by: hankster | Jul 14 2023 4:31 utc | 60
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 4:00 utc | 58
Russian solidarity ?
Can't blame the Russians.
India produces little of value outside naan and biryani.
China, however, makes actual stuff.
Russia has no use for naan or biryani.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 4:47 utc | 61
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25
pirate English race which had reduced India from 2nd richest country to the 2nd poorest country within 150 years.
The book/ research mentioned here quantifies the piracy at US$45 trillion in today's money...
This argument would be more convincing had India started to improve after the end of the colonial period.
Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Jul 14 2023 5:39 utc | 62
India in 2022 exports a lot of organic chemicals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, vehicles, clothing, food, aluminum, software services etc.
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 6:00 utc | 63
SWIFT, the money transfer system, has three data centers: United States, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Without money transfers, little gets done in the West.
As long as Russian banks used SWIFT, a Russian attack on SWIFT did not make sense. But each time Russia is excluded from an organisation, the survival of that institution matters little to Russia.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 14 2023 6:22 utc | 64
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 6:00 utc | 63
India in 2022 exports a lot ...
Apologies, dear Antonym. I forgot that India has just recently moved beyond the "naan and biryani" phase of civilisational development.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 6:28 utc | 65
ffs, the names of the countries are Ukraine and Moldova, not "the Ukraine" and "Moldavia." Sometimes, it feels like you're relying on a dictionary from 1895.
Secondly, the one who's going to feel the pinch if the grain deal isn't renewed is Turkey. They have a HUGE flour processing industry that exports to Europe, and the inputs come from both Ukraine and Russia.
Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Jul 14 2023 7:01 utc | 66
Strangely, b doesn't mention the top export destination of the grain, China.
It's likely that China is strong arming Russia into renewing the grain deal despite the obvious military downsides it poses. The alt-media sphere is refusing to cover this angle because the current mantra is that China is an angel which can do no wrong, and that it won't bleed Russia dry.
Posted by: soothsayer | Jul 14 2023 7:30 utc | 67
Dima had an interesting take on the grain deal and Turkish perfidy. He pointed out that Russia has NEVER welshed on an agreement under Putin. For D, Putin wanted out of the grain deal in order to assault Odessa from the sea. This would include a Russian naval "quarantine" (to use a word familiar to those who study the Cuban missile crisis) Black Sea access from Snake island to Crimea. Of course the Turks won't like the war being brought so close to home, so it will be interesting to look carefully at the meeting between VVP and Erdogan for signs.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Jul 14 2023 7:50 utc | 68
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 6:28 utc | 65
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 6:00 utc | 63India in 2022 exports a lot ...
Apologies, dear Antonym. I forgot that India has just recently moved beyond the "naan and biryani" phase of civilisational development.
Snideness aside (which seems to be a specialty of yours, Arch -- are you aspiring to Hackhood? -- besides which you're making me hungry!) -- considerably beyond, which actually shows that independence has value *in spite* of basically adopting neoliberalism as your economic 'development' model (especially post 1990)...
I doubt that India if still under the British Raj would be doing this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3
Commentator Roger once referenced a book by Ashoka Mody ('India is Broken') that rings true -- compare the Chinese path (unarguably superior):
https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=34425
Getting a slice of the commercial satellite launch market or eventually a piece of the moon does objectively seem a bit beyond naan and biryani.
So where India is concerned, there are a few bright spots in what seems a generally miserable situation, a toxic combination of Hindu nationalistic fascism and a horrendously unequal society (for starters, it would be a start if everyone could get their hands on some naan and biryani now and then).
As for Russian solidarity, given that India is giving a good impression of sucking up to Uncle Sam and his poodles at the moment and entirely cynically buying Russian oil for cheap without any longer term commitment to much of anything, isn't solidarity a two-way street? It's one thing to preserve strategic independence (to the extent of not supporting the BRICS currency because that will be dominated by China, say), but another to claim it while increasingly getting drawn into the US orbit -- for which there seems to be a strong constituency.
But I'm genuinely curious about your antagonism towards 'Indians', Arch -- no dog in this fight, but I do have an interest in India, which will be an increasingly large piece of the 'multipolar world' if it (hopefully) emerges. It's probably the biggest piece of the puzzle, and to see which way it goes with India over the next decade will be most interesting.
Posted by: Deeplurker | Jul 14 2023 7:56 utc | 69
Posted by: soothsayer | Jul 14 2023 7:30 utc | 67
It's likely that China is strong arming Russia into renewing the grain deal
Complete speculation voodoo. No supporting evidence or indication this might be true.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 8:15 utc | 70
China, India and others have long passed the point where US or Europe is an example.
As an example, China mobile has a billion customers. Indian Railways has 1,250,000 employees.
For the managers of these companies, running an US company would be a part-time job, while running an European company would be a hobby project.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 14 2023 8:19 utc | 71
Barflies,
India is a industrial powerhouse as well as a leading STEM system. The Indian Institue of Technology (IIT) is the top tech school on earth. The talent at IIT is simply shocking.
Indian also has a (soon to be) declining population challenge. Morning after abortion pills are popped like candy. It’s a serious long term problem.
True - it’s a often a filthy chaotic nightmare with entire families living on a traffic island, when they aren’t garbage picking. However, do not be misled by the chaos and filth.
Signed - someone who has done beaucoup business all over the place.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 8:35 utc | 72
I'll spend a great deal of time looking out the responses from the gaggle of posters alleging that Russia is gonna thoughtlessly renew the grain deal "because it has to that's what it always does" when Russia determines that the deal is no longer useful. The odds are high this time, though not 100% certain.
The reason is simple one that I foolishly imagined most at MoA grasped innately, otherwise they haven't considered reality despite how often they have exposed themselves to it at MoA.
States operate in their own best interest. Some like amerika, england & many of the players in 'the west' cloak their selfishness in vapid always shifting morality.
Some such as the Russian Federation act in what both they and their citizens conclude to be the best way of keeping the nation secure & prosperous. Many sit in-between, few if any states behave according to the ill-thought through desires of some drongo spewing his/her opinion on a net blog. Of course that means a bunch (coupla hunnerd, tops) of foreigners might criticize 'em, so what? The leaders know they have striven to give the best for their nation.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jul 14 2023 8:48 utc | 73
India is a industrial powerhouse as well as a leading STEM system. The Indian Institue of Technology (IIT) is the top tech school on earth. The talent at IIT is simply shocking.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 8:35 utc | 72
Suppose a bright 18-year old asks your advice about a career in STEM (as opposed to studying STEM, but going for a career in, say, finance or management). Would your advice be the same to an Indian, or an American?
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 14 2023 8:50 utc | 74
Career in STEM ?
Mechanical Engineering - German Company
Electric Engineering - French Company
Hardware Electronics - Chinese company
Software - Indian or US Company
Maths - Chinese or Indian company
Chemistry - german company
Biology - US company
Construction - German or Chinese
Manufacturing - Japanese
Stereotypes are often true in my experience :)
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 9:18 utc | 75
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 9:18 utc | 75
At this moment, the US does not have enough 115mm bullets to win a war. An 115mm bullet is a 45kg/100lb piece of metal, a fairly conventional piece of engineering.
That manufacturing shortage is not really going to get solved until an 18-year old American sees a career in mechanical engineering as a rewarding alternative to a career in Wall Street.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 14 2023 9:40 utc | 76
Russia is already stuck with over $2 billion of rupee payments made by India for defence deals over the past year. “Russia has the option of investing its rupee balance in Indian government securities or stock markets, but it is not keen on doing so,” the source said.
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 14 2023 4:00 utc | 58
Why are you interposing the US$ in a ruble/rupee balance? Nothing to do with the dollar at all.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jul 14 2023 9:58 utc | 77
...countries where people breed like rodents... a mass of hungry rats...
Posted by: TG | Jul 13 2023 16:54 utc | 9
It is attitudes like this that led to the rise of the Nazis. Are you a Nazi in fact? Or just autistic? At any rate, when it is realised that people hold these sort of views, it becomes clearer why the world puts so many resources into mass slaughter.
Posted by: Tim | Jul 14 2023 10:14 utc | 78
Re: De-dollarization
20% of Federal outlays are now interest payments
For context, the weighted average interest for total outstanding debt at the end of June was only 2.76%, a level that’s not been surpassed since January 2012, according to the Treasury. That’s up from 1.80% a year before, the department’s data show, and if the Fed indeed keeps rates "higher for longer", the blended rate on the debt will surpass 4% in one year.
Question - If at 2.76% interest cost = $1 trillion interest payments = 20% of federal outlays ( and a whopping 29% of tax income)?
What are the numbers for 4% interest on federal debt ?
Posted by: Exile | Jul 14 2023 10:24 utc | 79
hankster 51
Those Khazar Ukranian neocons eallyvdo want their Khazar Ukrainian empire back. The game is lost, but now they have forced Biden , by bargaining with who wins the 2024 election, to mobilise US troops to the borders of Ukraine.
I suppose there is a slender chance that Turkey and India betray Russia and those US troops get a chance to occupy Ukraine as peacekeepers, using some UN engineered peace deal prior to handing Ukraine over to the parasitic leech of Khazar Zionazism.
But it won't happen, because God is rather unwilling to reward corruption and bullying with real power.
The US is like Hogarth's Rake's Progress, drunk on dollar hegemony while the monkey of Khazar Nazism covers the US eyes from seeing and believing Combined Russian and Chinese determination to end US imperialism.
So, even if Kennedy exposes the lies about who started this war in Ukraine, he will still have to kowtow to Israel in order to get elected. Monkey's hands still making him blind to Russian and Chinese military power. Then one day the US and its gin- soaked , Atlantacist , European allies will realise who they have taken on.
Posted by: Giyane | Jul 14 2023 10:29 utc | 80
I don’t think I would like to be eating Ukranian grain that is grown on land infested with explosive chemicals and metals, let alone the fertilising carcasses of Ukrops abandoned after mincing.
Same goes for it’s sunflower production.
I doubt even the starving of the world let alone vegetarians or India would go anywhere near it.
Best feed it the pigs and feed the poisoned pigs to the Ukrops and natzos - they talk about eating Russian babies all the time after all.
A virtuous circle if you ask me.
Oh and don feed the trolls!
😝
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 14 2023 10:56 utc | 81
"Russia needs foreign currency to buy what it can not domestically produce."
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 13 2023 16:31 utc | 8
The excellent news is that can be filed under another myth. Can be classed as another form of GROUPTHINK passed down from above via universities and the mainstream media.
An FX transaction between floating rate currencies is actually two contracts.
1) is Bank A putting Bank B in credit with Currency A, and the other
2) is Bank B putting Bank A in credit with Currency B.
These contracts are assets of the banks, which can then be discounted into the currency the bank operates in. That creates the matching liabilities, which are deposits and which can then be used to pay people in the other currency area.
In short the buyers buys the goods with the currency it wants to use and the seller's gets the currency it wants. As can be seen very clearly here and of course what banks are for.
https://new-wayland.com/blog/anatomy-of-an-fx-transaction/
" That is how a net exporter injects its own currency into its economy - via a touch of financial alchemy. This process is common to all net exporters and comes in various forms from outright currency pegs where the central bank relieves the local banking system of its currency risk directly to leaving the banks to fend for themselves which tends to cause a drift towards ‘hard currencies’ - primarily the US dollar - that the banks are happy to hold as backing assets on their individual balance sheets for the local currency liabilities they issue against them.
Of course What we can see is that although the process starts as money creation, the desire to get rid of currency risk pares that back to a simple exchange of savings. Somebody within the net exporter currency area has to end up as the saver of FX financial assets ( see all the US treasuries and UK gilts and other countries bonds that exporters horde at the end of the process)
They are forced to be that entity or the currency rates will move to match the flow with the available quantity of savers. A currency rate move would be to strengthen the export currency and weaken the import currency.
When the export currency strengthens Macro 101 shows it destroys exports and therefore jobs in the exporting nation. The importing nation ends up with less stuff.
The ultimate choice, however, rests with the exporting nation - since they can bring their currency down by market intervention without limit. A smart importing nation would realise that and manage its relationships so that economic and political pressure in the export nation is brought to bear - rather than trying to buy foreign savers with needless interest payments. An approach that just exacerbates the problem rather than alleviates it - since the interest payment really needs to be saved. "
Which of course Russia and China ( BRICS) are trying to change right now.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 14 2023 11:56 utc | 82
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25
India seems like a paradox, because when you add all major grains and divide by the population, there should be starvation. However, besides the fact that you do not need as many calories as in North America or Europe, Indians rely a lot on legumes which are not "major grains". Add vegetables and some oil (and butter) and you get a typical Indian meal. Then there are plentiful fruits like mangoes and coconuts. Concerning the decrease in fertility, this is a cultural shift not forced by starvation, you can compare with Africa and even Pakistan (the decrease of fertility in Bangladesh matches India, Pakistan changes more slowly).
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 14 2023 12:02 utc | 83
Unfortunately, Michael Hudson One of the best economists on the planet and Steve Keen Fall consistently for the "Russia needs foreign currency to buy what it can not domestically produce." myth. Whenever they talk about trade.
The economists who do know how money works using the actual assets and liabilities and the balance sheets used in the real world. Free from politics and propaganda. Have been working closely with them both to highlight their mistake. Unfortunately, It hasn't quite filtered through yet, but it will eventually. Steve Keen is starting to get it after a live debate with Warren Mosler in 2018.
Trade and external finance mysteries – Part 1
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=39282
Trade and external finance mysteries – Part 2
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=39303
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 14 2023 12:23 utc | 84
BRICS "hopefully" understand the problem.
Export-led nations have to constantly provide liquidity into the rest of the world using the process above. To allow others to buy their goods. Otherwise the rest of the world runs out of the particular money that is needed for the export transaction to complete and the export never happens (UK buyers buy Chinese goods with GBP, but Chinese workers are paid in Yuan. The relative shortage of Yuan due to the export differential has to be provided by the Chinese or Chinese goods become, in absurdum, infinitely expensive).
So the important insight, is that exporters NEED to export and the central banks that support that policy with ’liquidity operations’ will ultimately halt any slide for any important export destination - either explicitly or implicitly through their own banking system.
Every mainstream analysis, analyses the situation from the point of view of the currency that is being depressed. Almost none look at it from the exporter’s point of view.
Which is where are the goods they no longer can sell to the importer going to go in a world where overall export growth is fundamentally limited by the increase in world income?
In a world where ’export led growth’ is the insane mantra, that is a mistake and leads to a mistaken view and many mistaken policy recommendations.
I personally can't wait to see what BRICS comes up with. If they come at it from the right perspectives with the correct solutions.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 14 2023 12:43 utc | 85
@Sam 25
Not to say that I am comfortable with TG's choice of language but you should avoid crude ad hominem attacks yourself. I'd also suggest you avoid using the word "race".
You give the impression of being something of an Indian nationalist. Great job on raising the standard of living over the last 75 years.
You claim that India was the 2nd richest country before colonisation. It wasn't a country - and probably would never have been one.
Posted by: Maff | Jul 14 2023 13:10 utc | 86
Russia follows agreements it signs to the T.
The other parties tear it up the moment it is signed and pretends it never existed.
Basically this is the story of Russian diplomacy.
Posted by: cafe con leche | Jul 14 2023 14:32 utc | 87
pirate English race which had reduced India from 2nd richest country to the 2nd poorest country within 150 years.
Posted by: Sam | Jul 13 2023 19:14 utc | 25
How long will we have to put up with casual anti white racism and postcolonial lies concocted from the deepest wells of existential inferiority coupled with convenient Marxist economic ignorance and broadcast by Brahmin skintellectuals trying to make up for their historic leadership failures and lingering collaboration guilt (Mughal and British).
It ugly and boring. Enough with this excrement.
India can be at any rank you want to to place it at in the 1500s. It does not matter. THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION will completely change the meaning of economic rank over the next 400 years. ANY nation that is not part of the industrial revolution will be at the bottom of the World ranking by 1950. Double Plus any nation with NEOFEUDAL POLITICAL CONTROL of the economy the way the Indian Leadership Class did and does to this very day.
If the men who moan about British deprivation today really meant what they said, they would curse the British for NOT OPRESSING THE INDIANS ENOUGH to smash they feudal economic system, impose mass education on the people and force India kicking and screaming into the Industrial Revolution. But no no, we need to pretend with the contributions of "indigenous knowledge" that India was an economic powerhouse in 1550 that could have maintained that position and be king of the World today if only the nasty ghost faces hadn't shown up.
It's as delusional as it is dishonest and it's time for Indian Intellectuals to get a grip and bite the reality bullet. Join modernity 2.0 Step away from the Empire of Lies.
Posted by: Northern Observer | Jul 14 2023 14:52 utc | 88
@ Stierlitz 68
For [Dima of Military SUmmary channel], Putin wanted out of the grain deal in order to assault Odessa from the sea.
If Russia needs to take Odessa by military assault, will they do it by sea or by land ? If by land, then from the east - or from the north ? This breaks down into several pars, as folows:
1. Odessa is a large city with a pro-Russian population. The last thing Russia wants is to badly damage the city in taking it.
2. Some people say a seaborne operation would be very costly. For example, the ships of a landing force could be destroyed by missiles. Even a devastated Ukrainian military might have surviving British officers who could launch the missiles from relatively hidden locations.
3. If the Russians move by land, then would it be from the north or the east ? The east has many rivers to cross, and those obstacles could prove costly. Attacking from the north avoids most river crossings, but could only be done after Ukrainian territory far north of Odessa had already been taken.
Russians forces might seal the Polish border before they enter Odessa, which could save this jewel of a city from destruction. The West will want Odessa to be destroyed, so I wonder what counter-moves the evil empire might conjure up.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jul 14 2023 14:57 utc | 89
Posted by: hankster | Jul 14 2023 4:31 utc | 60
Posted by: Bonami | Jul 14 2023 2:39 utc | 53
Some random old yanqui on youtube also thinks this is concerning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEv_NqA0Oxk
Where there's smoke, there's fire ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jul 14 2023 15:56 utc | 90
Posted by: Stierlitz | Jul 14 2023 7:50 utc | 68
RF has for a long time restricted itself to defensive actions on territory it, and the corresponding populations, recognise as being part of Russia. Attacks outside of these borders have been in support of territorial defense.
In this legal framework, Odessa would have to request military support from Russia, which doesn’t seem likely under current circumstances. Assaulting Odessa from the sea is a strategy for the mentally handicapped who struggle to form memories of the potency of anti-ship missiles. Dima should be read with this in mind or not at all.
RF recently hitting Snake Island (assuming that’s confirmed) looks more like denying it UA rather than an intention to occupy it.
It might be that RF intends to sail its own grain ships through the Bosphorus and, when UA attacks them, use that as a justification for taking control of the whole Ukrainian coast in one way or another … how that’d work in practice I don’t know.
More likely the end of grain deal will shut down all Black Sea grain shipments, RF will use other routes for safety, Erdogan will lose out so long as this state persists.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 14 2023 16:14 utc | 91
soothsayer | Jul 14 2023 7:30 utc | 67
It's likely that China is strong arming Russia into renewing the grain deal despite the obvious military downsides it poses. The alt-media sphere is refusing to cover this angle because the current mantra is that China is an angel which can do no wrong, and that it won't bleed Russia dry.
That is, quite possibly, the stupidest comment I've ever seen 'ere. And, the competition is quite fierce!
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jul 14 2023 16:47 utc | 92
RF has for a long time restricted itself to defensive actions on territory it, and the corresponding populations, recognise as being part of Russia ... Odessa would have to request military support from Russia
anon2020 | Jul 14 2023 16:14 utc | 91
They can't be bothered with part of Zap., part of Kherson or any frequently shelled regions like Donetsk, Belgorod or others at the borders. Odessa or other region won't ask for anything even if they wanted to. They saw the constant retreating and the inaction. Not even the Chinese amb. to EU, Mr. Fu Cong Ping Pong, believes Crimea is Russia (aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/27/dont-see-why-not-china-envoy-on-backing-ukraines-91-borders)
Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2023 16:48 utc | 93
@TG - 9
You’ll forgive me if I find your comment to be somewhat racist
Posted by: nwwoods | Jul 14 2023 18:20 utc | 94
Russia is wasting time on this and that deal and not attacking the real country which is plotting and running all these wars .
Warning has been since 2007.
4th June, 2007. -
President Putin is wrong when he says ( in Munich security conference 2007) that Russia should or will target the missile on Europe if america goes with anti missile defence plan in Poland in Europe. ]In fact it was not America but england which asked for ABM against Russia. BBC spy journalists were harassing presidential candidate Gore not to go ahead with Florida recount on ground” ally like britian want to conclude AMB deployment in Yorkshire as soon as possible so there should be no delay in govt. formation.” In other word accept fraudulent win of bush for sake of england ! Russia must target (rather than should) the nuclear missiles with multiple war heads against all ( including military instalations) of england because this cold war -like the one before- is being started by england for the benefit of english race only-.it is race war between the english parasite race versus the rest of the world-the sooner the rest of the world realizes that better it is for the world. look how Germany was vilified soon after fall of soviet union-look how russia is being vilified immediately after Putin made russia strong. Russia's "partners" understand only two things: the big wallet and the big gun, as satan understands only Saint George's spear. Time is near. -such is the evil propaganda of british spies inside america. . Poland is nothing but a proxy for the british bastards. It is no use targeting Poland -target the main villain which is england and the english nation which must be sorted out by the world. http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-world-order-the-founding-fathers/5445255 face 0f the evil. When someone asked Bismark once what he would do if the British invaded, he said he’d have the border police arrest them (or words to that effect).-thaqt is how low the germans thought of the English army capability –and the Germans were right as was shown the cowardice of non fighting coward English trrops in both world wars-they instigated others to fight but remained behind in actual fighting till late. Remember Bismarck said that when the pirate empire called british empire was at height of her pseudo power-in other words Prussians could defeat the English race at the height of their so called power. and that was at height of pirate empire of the british at Victoria’s time.And rightly so. english then and now are ready to fight only unarmed civilians. Prussia was the strongest army in the world at that time. It tells you how low English race is compared to the Germans and how much Germans could have gone up had they been not made to fight Russian in plot created by the English race-that plot is called world war one and two. ============================================================== ===================================
Posted by: Sam | Jul 14 2023 21:57 utc | 95
@northern observer 88
Quote from Shadowbanned .
,"if there is one country in NATO that the US is most likely to die over, it is the UK. Everyone else is mere vassals, but the financial oligarchy that runs it all has its bases in both London and NYC. But that again underlines the importance of full annihilation of the UK -- it needs to be blanketed with multi-Mt ground bursts so that nothing survives and there is nobody to instigate retaliatory strikes."
that the england is in the business (literally) of arming proxy wars without getting it own hands (boots) dirty. It pretends it is not at war because it thinks no one will call it out and take it on because it has big brother and would cause much havoc for any challenger (true).
But how can it be stopped playing this game?
Posted by: Sam | Jul 14 2023 22:12 utc | 96
“But how can it be stopped playing this game?
Posted by: Sam | Jul 14 2023 22:12 utc | 96”
Beats me, but I’d prefer not to humor shadowbanned’s genocidal fantasies.
Posted by: malenkov | Jul 14 2023 23:17 utc | 97
Russian, Chinese, X, Y, Z patriotism all good, but Indian patriotism bad. Because of Modi's Hinduism, which by the way favors all born in India. Nehru gave India a secular constitution which disfavors Hindus, "because they are the majority". Not allowed to have Hindu schools, temples are run by state governments, not by believers; Christians and Muslims control their own schools and places of worship. All details - for the old uninformed.
About the dozens of Islamic states, nations, or Christian states crickets - silence. Western Hypocrisy rife even here.
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 15 2023 2:12 utc | 98
Nixon and Kissinger in 1971 called Indira Gandhi "that old witch" and "bastards" because she didn't give them the free hand to the Indian working class and laws; Mao gave them carte blanche. So big business went to the PRC, and the WEF still have their summer sessions there today in Tianjin since 11 years.
Posted by: Antonym | Jul 15 2023 2:13 utc | 99
@NORTHERN OBSERVER 88.
Bismarck.
Fact is that English cowards acquired empire through sly deceit and lies –even in the height of their so called pirate empire there were nothing compared to the French or germans of the day. they used others to run down who they want to take down-by propaganda to disarm and only after disarming them did the english dare attack unarmed civilians. notice how America is being instructed by English scumbags in the same tactics of using UNO to disarm others in name of nuke proliferation or what so ever and then attacking after years of sanctions. stupid Russians have not learnt anything from this mortal enemy . Believing in their own propaganda these English think that they got things through honourable use of arms-let us see what the germans though of them at the height of pirate empire in 1888. Bismarck When someone asked Bismark once what he would do if the British invaded, he said he’d have the border police arrest them (or words to that effect—“ "If the British Army landed in Europe, I'd get the Belgian police to arrest them." ).-that is how low the Germans thought of the English army capability –and the Germans were right as was shown the cowardice of non fighting coward English troops in both world wars-they instigated others to fight but remained behind in actual fighting till late. Remember Bismarck said that when the pirate empire called british empire was at height of her pseudo power-in other words Prussians could defeat the English race at the height of their so called power. And rightly so. english then and now are ready to fight only unarmed civilians. Prussia was the strongest army in the world at that time. And had no empire worth talking about. It tells you how low English race is compared to the Germans and how much Germans could have gone up had they been not made to fight Russian in plot created by the English race-that plot is called world war one and two.
Posted by: Sam | Jul 15 2023 2:33 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Reminds me of Tucker Carlson and Andrew Tate speaking about the "coming famine" in a recent Twitter long form interview.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 13 2023 15:59 utc | 1