Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 20, 2023

U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China

Confronted with the realities of life the Biden administration has in the last days acknowledged defeat in two on its most egregious and delusional foreign policy games.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. Its army is getting slaughtered on the battlefield. The 'counteroffensive' of the 'NATO trained' Ukrainian brigades has made no real progress on any front. The high level of losses of men and material make it impossible that it will ever again regain the initiative.

The U.S. aim was to integrate the Ukraine into NATO. It would then have been able to station U.S. troops in Ukraine and to put its weapons into reach of Moscow so that any independent Russian move could be countered with a threat of imminent annihilation.

After more than 20 years of pursuing that aim the U.S. threw the towel:

President Biden on Saturday said he won’t make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO, adding that the country at war with Russia has to meet the requirements to be a member.

“They got to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier,” Biden told reporters. “I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of is their system secure? Is it noncorrupt? Does it meet all the standards … every other nation in NATO does.”

And yes, that is a change. A big one:

Biden has reportedly previously expressed that he is open to removing the Member Action Plan hurdle for Ukraine to join NATO, which requires countries that want to join the alliance make reforms militarily and democratically.

Still, it is not enough:

Biden has not said anything new. Biden senses that the US lost the proxy war but he must not and cannot admit it. So, in the absence of a time machine, which could have taken him all the way back to 1999 when the NATO’s expansion began unfolding, Biden simply walked back to the default position of the 2008 NATO Summit at Bucharest welcoming Ukraine into the alliance via the MAP route — as if that moment fifteen years ago is now the past and cannot be pulled back to the present. Russia is not going to accept it. 

Though packaged in nice words the European Union gave Ukraine a similar negative outlook (machine translation):

An EU report on Ukraine's membership bid states that Kiev has so far met two of the seven conditions required to start formal EU accession negotiations.
...
"There is progress. The report will be moderately positive. This is not about embellishing reality, but about recognizing progress, for example, there are well-known anti-corruption cases. In particular, in the case of the head of the Supreme Court Knyazev," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
...
“In terms of reforms, the glass would be half full, we would never take a negative tone towards Ukraine at the moment. Judicial reforms have made some progress, although there are still key ones that need to be carried out. Not everything is satisfactory.”

The much hyped counter-offensive has indeed become a death trap for the U.S. EU and NATO.

The other U.S. defeat was acknowledged by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the end of his trip to Bejing:

The United States will not support Taiwan breaking away from China, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said, amid a series of confusing statements by Joe Biden on the issue.

'We do not support Taiwan independence,' America's top diplomat said in Beijing after meeting with Chinese president Xi Jingping.

This was more than a verbal change in Blinken's pronouncements:

The US State Department has updated its fact sheet on Taiwan again to reinstate a line about not supporting formal independence for the Chinese-claimed, democratically governed island.
...
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means,” according to the document, referring to the strait separating the island from the Asian mainland.

Last month, the State Department changed its website on Taiwan, removing wording both on not supporting Taiwan independence and on acknowledging Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, which angered Beijing.

Blinken's change of heart came after an extremely short meeting with President Xi which had followed a series of lectures by other high ranking Chinese officials:

Wang gave a comprehensive explanation of the historical logic and inevitable trend of China's development and rejuvenation, and elaborated on the distinctive features of Chinese modernization and the rich substance of China's whole-process people's democracy.

He urged the U.S. side not to project onto China the assumption that a strong country is bound to seek hegemony and not to misjudge China with the beaten path of traditional Western powers. "This is key to whether the United States can truly return to an objective and rational policy toward China."

Wang demanded that the United States stop playing up the so-called "China threat", lift illegal unilateral sanctions against China, stop suppressing China's scientific and technological advances, and do not wantonly interfere in China's internal affairs.

He stressed that safeguarding national unity has always been the core of China's core interests. It is where the future of the Chinese nation lies and the abiding historical mission of the CPC.

On the Taiwan question, China has no room for compromise or concession, Wang said.

The Chinese language readout of the Blinken-Wang meetings is reportedly even more scornful than its English translation.

The next step for China is to stop the provocative 'innocent passage' drive-bys by U.S. military ships and airplanes in the Taiwan Straits. To do that it simply has to apply the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea:

Article 38
Right of transit passage

1. In straits referred to in article 37, all ships and aircraft enjoy the right of transit passage, which shall not be impeded; except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics.

A view on a map shows that this evidently applies to the strait between mainland China and the Chinese island named Taiwan.


bigger

If the U.S. really has a One China policy it will have to accept that the Strait is off limits.

This double whammy of defeat in its wars on Russia and China will take some time to stick.

In the Ukraine conflict there are still dreams of creating some kind of stalemate, of implementing some kind of a Korean cease-fire demarcation line on the 38th parallel:

U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.

The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.

Russia wont have any of that. It will thoroughly defeat the Ukrainian army. It will retake the parts of Ukraine which for centuries had been Russian before the communists assigned those administratively to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

The rest of a then neutral Ukraine, cut off from the sea and the mineral riches of the east, will be handed over to the underling that Russia is willing to accept.

The double defeat in its wars against the 'rest of the world' marks the end of the Wolfowitz doctrine:

The doctrine announces the U.S.'s status as the world's only remaining superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War and proclaims its main objective to be retaining that status.
Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.

The end of 'unilateral moment' is there for anyone to see.

The Republicans will of course loudly blame Biden for this even though they are just as guilty of overreach as the other side of the isle. Biden may well have to sacrifice Blinken as the pawn guilty of losing the game.

Anyway, neither will help him to get reelected.

It is, by the way, not just a coincident that Israel, on the same day of the U.S. admission of defeat, got whacked by fighters of the Palestinian resistance. This another of those U.S. sponsored global problems that China is eager to solve.

Posted by b on June 20, 2023 at 9:42 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Let's hope this realpolitik communicates itself into the Ukrainian command structure so further bloodshed can be minimised.

Posted by: GT Stroller | Jun 20 2023 9:50 utc | 1

We can only hope that Pox Americana is really truly ending soon, will be happy to see it in my lifetime and hopefully without nuclear annihilation.

Posted by: Nindyen | Jun 20 2023 9:52 utc | 2

Hmm … let’s wait and see.

How long will it take for Blinken to get back to the USA. Meet with Nuland and other deep state operators -and revert back to war with Russia and sending weapons to Taiwan.

USA will say if Taiwan want to be independent we support their self determination, what’s that you say about Crimea? and Donbass? This is different Taiwan is a democracy.

Oh and more sanctions for everybody !

Posted by: James2 | Jun 20 2023 9:56 utc | 3

The next country to be proxy may be Finland and its large army...

Posted by: Liisa | Jun 20 2023 10:03 utc | 4

The real test is this winter, when a likely gas shortfall may permanently weaken Germany and the EU with it, starting an internal crisis with unpredictable but undoubtedly negative outcomes. The decline in already tight living standards is the introductory paragraph to the dissolution of large state projects (Yugoslavia, USSR etc.),and where the EU or what's left of it goes from there is anyone's guess.

The unthinkable alternative - lifting of all Russia sanctions and restitution of frozen funda is a different road to the same outcome - civilizational defeat, even if the resumption of the normal resource flows makes the EU seem sustainable (which it is not).

Posted by: Plebs | Jun 20 2023 10:05 utc | 5

It is, by the way, not just a coincident that Israel, on the same day of the U.S. admission of defeat, got whacked by fighters of the Palestinian resistance. This another of those U.S. sponsored global problems that China is eager to solve.

Holy crap batman, they finally fought back properly! Viva Palestina!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 20 2023 10:08 utc | 6

I still don't see how the russians can/will improve on the battles in March 2022.

If it took half a year to conquer 70k ppl Bakhmut, then how do they want to invade Kyiv and Kherson?

It didn't work out for them in the beginning of the war, how shall it happen now?

You could argue: if the total destruction of the cities (Mariupol, Bakhmut) is a result of an assault, they could as well use tactical nukes. True. But unlikely, given the international outcry. They even didn't use big scale thermobaric weapons in Bakhmut (father of all bombs) to protect the still hiding civil population in the basements.

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:09 utc | 7

Impressive prediction. If you are right, if it further develops as per your vision, you are one of the most prescient observers of current times. Will mark this post and see whether it pans out as per your vision.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jun 20 2023 10:14 utc | 8

I see it more of preserving Art. 5 NATO Treaty. If Ukraine was to join NATO, it would be covered by Art. 5 NATO Treaty. But no NATO member is willing to turn the Ukraine conflict into WW3. So in case of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO, the collective defense clause would be voided for all other states to see. This would spell the end of NATO, which rests on the preception of a mutual defense pact.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jun 20 2023 10:21 utc | 9

Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:09 utc | 7

I would recommend that you use your powers of observation. as the Russians, in less than a fortnight have crushed the Ukrainian Counter-offensive that NATO has been arming and training for the past 9 months.

Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 20 2023 10:24 utc | 10

Hooray!

Let's see if it sticks. The fat lady is not going to sing after all?

Posted by: c | Jun 20 2023 10:27 utc | 11

Blinky may be looking for work soon. Reminds me of the old cartoon show: "Pinky and the Brain"

Posted by: c | Jun 20 2023 10:29 utc | 12

various Tg are reporting large RF offensive actions across mulriole positions. Like this from Intel Slava Z

🇷🇺🇺🇦 In the evening, it is reported about the advance of our troops in the Krasnoliman and Kupyansk directions. Reports of an entry to the outskirts of Kupyansk are still somewhat ahead of events. To get to the outskirts of Kupyansk, you must at least take Sinkovka and the adjacent forest

Posted by: hankster | Jun 20 2023 10:31 utc | 13

Yes would be too good to be true... but at the moment you see further escalations everywhere! And trust the Americans? Do they give in so quickly? No think not at all. Could be a clear trap. 2 important events yesterday and today, which should definitely be read:

NATO delivers F16s, which can carry nuclear bombs to Ukraine:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
(scroll down a bit)

Brand new from today a warning from Shoigu:
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1257666

Yes one can hope, but believe only when I see it. At the moment everything stands on escalation and it could become a "hot" summer

Posted by: Chris swiss | Jun 20 2023 10:34 utc | 14

B.

Article 38 of the Law of the Sea ?

Brilliant ! Thanks for digging that up, completely forgot about that.


Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 10:38 utc | 15

Hope you are right b and that a sense of reality has at last emerged.

I think that the US has suddenly realised how much they have overreached. The NATO cupboard is bare and the accelerating de-dollarization process is sending a massive panic through the minds of the financiers.

I don't expect to read much about this in the MSM as there will be no announcements. It will be interesting watching how this plays out and how they manage to sweep the bodies of these dying elephants under the carpet.

Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 20 2023 10:40 utc | 16

Thanks b, things seem to be moving on to Taiwan/China now. After all, 2025 is getting nearer quickly. Please keep covering this topic, MoA will soon be the authoritative analysis on it in the Western media.

Thanks also for your permissive yet well-kept comment section, a very precious rarity these days! The quality of discussion it attracts (mine included of course :-D) is your merit.

Ukraine - it looks like a failed military campaign for the West at this point. Ukraine is depopulating, certainly of working age males that can maintain and defend the land. The weapons in the combined Western-controlled sphere are depleting, and, like Stoltenberg announced, the Western peoples will have to exchange their way of life to make space for a war economony to repay the US lend & lease debt.

Ukraine is a stalemate. It won't join NATO now, but can neither be abandoned to its hostile (Eastern) neighbours. So where do we go from here? Oh look, Blinken just announced an "Israel Status" Plan For Ukraine. Presciently, Zelensky and others had already been talking about Ukraine becoming an "Israel 2.0".

How this is supposed to work in practical terms seems a mystery with current facts on the ground, unless Russia supports the plan as well.

Posted by: Leser | Jun 20 2023 10:41 utc | 17

ZimZum | Jun 20 2023 10:24 utc 10

You obviously didn't notice the blatant advantage the defender has (again) in this war. The loss of armored vehicles to guided munitions is just unsustainable, swinging the balance back from mobile warfare in WW2 to static defences as in WW1.

The only way to overcome this problem is the same as in WW1: massive use of artillery, basically leveling every obstacle. So now extrapolate what they dis to little Bakhmut to 20-50x bigger citites.

The only viable game-changer to bring back mobile warfare would be active protection systems, for example the Israel Trophy system on their Merkava Tanks. It would for example neutralize the long range heli-based guided missiles, or anything man-based as Javelins/RPGs.

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:43 utc | 18

Министр обороны РФ генерал армии Сергей Шойгу:

«Украинские войска продолжают предпринимать попытки наступательных действий на Южно-Донецком, Запорожском и Донецком направлениях. При этом киевский режим задействует большое количество западных вооружений и элитные соединения, личный состав которых обучался специалистами НАТО.

С 4 июня ВСУ предприняли 263 атаки позиций российских войск.

Благодаря грамотным и самоотверженным действиям наших подразделений все они отбиты, противник целей не достиг.

По нашим данным, руководство вооруженных сил Украины планирует нанести удары по территории Российской Федерации, включая Крым, ракетами «Хаймарс» и «Сторм Шэдоу».

❗️Применение этих ракет вне зоны проведения специальной военной операции будет означать полноценное втягивание США и Великобритании в конфликт и повлечет незамедлительные удары по центрам принятия решений на территории Украины».

🔹 @mod_russia

Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu:

"Ukrainian troops continue to attempt offensive actions in the South Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions. At the same time, the Kiev regime uses a large number of Western weapons and elite formations, whose personnel were trained by NATO specialists.

Since June 4, the AFU has launched 263 attacks on the positions of Russian troops.

Thanks to the competent and selfless actions of our units, all of them were repulsed, the enemy did not achieve the goals.

According to our data, the leadership of the armed forces of Ukraine plans to strike the territory of the Russian Federation, including Crimea, with Haimars and Storm Shadow missiles.

"The use of these missiles outside the zone of a special military operation will mean a full-fledged involvement of the United States and Great Britain in the conflict and will entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers on the territory of Ukraine."

Posted by: Citan | Jun 20 2023 10:44 utc | 19

Summary: A well planned defence is one thing, a successful offensive way more costly and difficult. Questionable if Russia still has the tank reserves to conduct bigger breakthrough operations.

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:45 utc | 20

murgen23,


To complete the parallels with the breakout from Normandy would require NATO to have complete air supremacy and recreate the Carpet Bombing of St.Lô which killed a few thousand French civilians. Without the carpet bombing of St.Lô, the stalemate in Normandy would have continued for many more months, into the winter.

Do you really want NATO to carpet bomb a big corridor in The Ukraine killing thousands of civilians ?

Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 10:46 utc | 21

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:45 utc | 21

Questionable if Russia still has the tank reserves to conduct bigger breakthrough operations.

If Russia, whose tank reserves and manufacturing capacity exceeds that of the entire West, lacks tank reserves now imagine the other side ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 20 2023 10:52 utc | 22

GAMEPLAN?

The Pentagon and Western NATO knew all along that the current Ukrainian offensive would be a disaster without Western provided air support. The Russian forces are rapidly and decisively taking out the Ukrainian offensive mainly from the air, that is from artillery, drones, mortars, missiles, glide bombs, helicopters, and aircraft. Most of the Ukrainian troops are not even making it to the first line of the Russian defenses because of the air onslaught coming their way.

The West used this certain Ukrainian defeat to justify the need to support Ukraine with F-16s and longer range missiles.

Biden has said that they could not supply Ukraine with F-16s because it would be nuclear war. When he said this, most took it that Biden was being cautious. I don't think so. Biden was telling the world how it would be. And soon F-16s will be taking off to take out Russian targets.

Putin recently stated that the air fields in which enemy aircraft took off to attack Russian territory would be subject to Russian retaliation.

WHERE It'S HEADING?

Once the F-16s are flying to take out Russian targets, you can count on this to be yet another significant escalation towards the final escalation. This is what Biden has already publically stated.

The West's plans to escalate the Ukrainian war to its final stage is in progress and ready to make yet other significant advancement towards the final end game.

Posted by: young | Jun 20 2023 10:53 utc | 23

Had the NATO Anglo/Zionists stationed missiles on Russia's borders the demands on Russia would begin.

The status of Jerusalem, the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and what's left of Palestine would be among the first demands.

Then the demands would never end.

Can anyone think of other Anglo/Zionist top of mind issues?

Posted by: Paul GV | Jun 20 2023 10:54 utc | 24

I am reminded, too, that the Republican televised Presidential debates start in August, where millions will tune in to see Trump hammer this administration on Ukraine.

Returning to a national platform, Trump will change the narrative and Biden & Co can see it coming like a freight train.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Jun 20 2023 11:00 utc | 25

Another great analysis B. I’ve been reading your work for some years now and found it always diligent in fact seeking and wise in analysis of implications.
I would also look at the Blinken/ Wang handshake. Wang looks steely. Blinken looks dejected. Also look at the hands closely. Blinken is getting his knuckles crushed, live in the picture! Hilarious!

Posted by: Peacemakesplenty | Jun 20 2023 11:05 utc | 26

Citan @ 20

According to our data, the leadership of the armed forces of Ukraine plans to strike the territory of the Russian Federation, including Crimea, with Haimars and Storm Shadow missiles. "The use of these missiles outside the zone of a special military operation will mean a full-fledged involvement of the United States and Great Britain in the conflict and will entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers on the territory of Ukraine."

CMIIW but haven't HIMARs and maybe Storm Shadows already hit Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk or have those areas already been seceded to the SMO? If so, I'm not sure what Shoigu is talking about but he's a day late and a ruble short.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 20 2023 11:07 utc | 27

Very optimistic. The US will not give up. If they are not at war, they would probably have a Civil war, killing each other. That would be a great option. As a second option perhaps they could indeed invade (and get slaughtered) in Mexico.

Posted by: Naigoreip | Jun 20 2023 11:09 utc | 28

There are a few people in here who seem to think that a Russian 'counter-offensive' would simply reverse the logic of the current campaign, and Russia would take excessive manpower losses.

Well, I disagree.

If Russia moves over a chosen front, but with a 7:1 artillery advantage, supporting wandering air munitions, and close and long range air superiority, and facing no equivalent threat from Ukraine, then the Ukrainian defence will suffer enormously.

Additionally, having to concentrate in new, unprepared defence lines, in order to repel the Russian force, makes them more lucrative targets.


Additionally, the supply chains and arms dumps feeding the Ukrainian forces would continue to be attractive targets for missiles, Fab500 bombs and drone attack.

So the attritional logic remains in Russia's favour. If they demonstrate it in the near future, will this finally bring Ukraine to the negotiating table?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jun 20 2023 11:17 utc | 29

@ ZimZum | Jun 20 2023 10:24 utc | 10

Meh. Don’t spend too much time on this one. He has/had all the time in the world to read old threads.

Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 11:22 utc | 30

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:09 utc | 7

Yes, well it took 11 months at Verdun, but as you know Germans are very slow learners

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 20 2023 11:27 utc | 31

"replace Blinken" ?!

Biden is subordinate to Blinken.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WestExec_Advisors

The competent authorities will re-shuffle the Presidential Administration behind the scenes. Biden won't even notice.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 20 2023 11:28 utc | 32

Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:43 utc | 19

I did notice that and if I noticed it so did the Ukrainians yet they attacked anyway.

The battle is lost by expending your army faster than your opponents. It matters not whether you do this attacking or defending. You don't get extra bonus points for attacking. Right now the Ukrainian army is close to spent.

Having set a goal of reaching the Azov sea and cutting off Crimea, they failed to reach the first Russian defensive line, let alone penetrate it. Everything that the carefully built up for months has been destroyed and the have almost zero chance of doing that again. It has been a catastrophe for them.

Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 20 2023 11:32 utc | 33

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Jun 20 2023 10:09 utc | 7

Bakhmut was mostly Wagner's job, not the federal military. Now that the AFU is bleeding out of every orifice, the feds may have more opportunities for more aggressive action,but if not, they will stick to minimizing friendly losses, as they have said since the beginning.

Posted by: Tomp | Jun 20 2023 11:40 utc | 34

Reading between the lines, it looks as if Blinken got an ultimatum in the post.

Gilbert Doctorov is a must read. He points out that the F16s that Ukraine may receive will be nuclear capable, and that Russia will not know whether or not incoming F16s are carrying tactical nukes and will have to assume that they are.

The message is that Russia will attack the bases from which such flights originate, wherever they are, and tactical nukes will be on the table. Rammstein will be in the crosshairs.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 20 2023 11:48 utc | 35

The Biden administration may well have blinked twice over Ukraine's failed counter-offensive and Anthony Blinken's disastrous trip to Beijing but these sudden doses of reality won't necessarily put a stop to US delusions of bringing NATO (and NATO forces, weaponry and tanks) right up to the Russian border, and of using Taiwan or some other part of the Western Pacific / East Asia region as a battleground against China.

Indeed, the more defeats the US experiences, the more likely the US will continue with its policies and strategies based on its perceived role as World Hegemon even as its economy and political clout with the much of the rest of the world crumble away. After all, the US depends on others' perception of itself as the exceptional nation and natural leader of the world, leading the way towards greater "democracy" and "freedom" to cover up its real agenda and intentions towards other nations. There would be no reason for the US to exist otherwise if other nations didn't fall for the lie.

Posted by: Jen | Jun 20 2023 11:50 utc | 36

Blinken looks like a whipped dog in every photo from China. Even if the Biden administration has no replacement at hand his days are done. Defeated and broken.

Blinken is too stupid and too arrogant to understand a soft spoken diplomatic insult. He was soundly thrashed.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 20 2023 11:50 utc | 37

Humankind didn't invent the expression "the genie is out of the bottle" for nothing. Let the US try to win its old "friends" back. When they see its charm offensive is going to be the same kind of s-show as everything else they've tried, let them go back to what they left unfinished in Ukraine.

Posted by: Jonatham W | Jun 20 2023 11:53 utc | 38

Pleases the hell out of me for what are really selfish reasons. Whatever else happens in Ukraine, I want us to avoid a nuclear exchange. If Biden is willing to back down a little, then it is unlikley they are thinking about going nuclear. Meanwhile the war is still on. And given Russian tendencies, I am sure they know that.

My big overview of this thing is that the Political West has to be punished for the threat they created for Russia or they will do it againg. The character of the punishment should be Russia gaining territory. No matter what, Russia keeps the four oblasts already annexed, and if I were Putin, I would go for the eastern third of the country. Not a division, because the eastern third is simply incorporated into Russia.

Territorial gains are more lasting than political settlements, so the focus should be on territory, not on whatever political settlement is reached on the western part of Ukraine. You know, first things first.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 20 2023 11:58 utc | 39

Great Article!

Just one more thing: The USA of course - as one of only a handful of remaining countries - does not recognize and is not part of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea#/media/File:United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea_parties.svg

Posted by: Roland | Jun 20 2023 12:02 utc | 40

Don't feed the trolls, don't feed the nisse.

I was reading the IndianPunchline article last night and was "Possibly real "Wow!" Must read more elsewhere. The "proof is in the pudding" would be the ceasing of passage via USN groups to the west of Taiwan. Extinction type negations are difficult to totally prove, but time will tell.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 20 2023 12:07 utc | 41

You said the Russians would take Zelenski out after the Kremlin drone attack. Long history of jumping to hopium conclusions too fast.

I agree that the MSM can be (and has been) biased. Bakhmut coverage showed that clearly...with zero coverage of the fascinating block by block clearing of the city...and the day before it fell completely, the MSM stories being about Ukraine winning the Bakhmut fight.

However, silliness from the MSM is no reason to inject your own hopium in reverse. Be analytical and shrewd.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 20 2023 12:12 utc | 42

In re the F-16. I have a friend who stood on top of the nuclear bunkers with others in Belgium. At least for that site and in Germany the removal of B-61's would be noticeable via the locals as well probably via satellite. Of course there are more than a few back in the usOfa. For those of you in Europe, there still is time to hone your non-violent civil disobedience skills for the annual early August events at those places.

We did MLK day for 10 straight years at Grand Forks ND AFB, (before it was a holiday) and then they took out every missile silo in that field.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 20 2023 12:16 utc | 43

"Biden", the swamp and think-tank land seem to be ramping up nuclear threat in Ukraine again. Exact same as last summer. I think we need to seriously take into account a scenario where FUKUS does a dirty bomb/ZNPP sabotage, the retaliation for false flag will not be in Ukraine, but London or Warsaw or Nato stuff in those countries.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 12:17 utc | 44

Hmmm.

Statements, be they verbal or written, mean little, when the US has a record of saying one thing, and then doing the complete opposite.

What ACTIONS is the US undertaking to reverse its toxic policy of warmongering and interference?

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 20 2023 12:19 utc | 45

Here's Biden in 1997 chortling about Russian warnings that NATO expansion would mean Russia having to turn to China. "Good luck with that, and why don't you try Iran while you're at it" (paraphrase).

What an (evil) clown this man is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPZNRZNvwCU

Posted by: Observer | Jun 20 2023 12:22 utc | 46

Our friends have uncovered some details of the Ukrainian "meat assaults" in the Zaporizhzhya direction. These are the instructions obtained by Russian intelligence to the commander of the AFU grouping in our direction, Brigadier General Tarnavskiy.

They clearly state that the loss of a huge amount of Western equipment is bad for the image of the AFU, and even jeopardizes further deliveries of heavy equipment. Therefore, Syrsky orders to break the defenses in waves of infantry with the support of outdated equipment, and to throw Western equipment into combat only to develop success. At the same time, stressing the inaccessibility of high losses in NATO equipment, there is not even any mention of losses in personnel. The military commanders will mobilize more meat.

However, we didn't learn anything new, Syrsky demonstrated his tactics of piling up the mobilized back in Artemivsk.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1671121609090899968

Nothing new here. Actually this was an easy assumption a long time ago - AFU will trade cheap penny lives to save valuable, rare and hi-tech Nato vehicles and equipment. The fact that the vehicles can't be used - only in a case of a breakthrough which most of the time require the vehicles used in first place - is a sign that AFU has little vehicles left, and also they have a pre-condition to save the reputation of Nato equipment by not using it.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 12:25 utc | 47

I had assumed that like Afghanistan, the US is admitting defeat in China so that it can concentrate its forces in Russia. I don’t put too much weight in the US predictably throwing Ukraine under the bus, particularly in light of Victoria Nuland’s impending promotion,

Posted by: Turk 152 | Jun 20 2023 12:28 utc | 48

Another reading of this is that it is just a smoke screen to cover a mere tactical retreat. The collective neocon/globalist/creditor class will certainly NOT throw in the towel at this stage. Too much can be gained by further “weaken” Russia and China and blaming (orchestrated) declining living standards for the working masses at home on Putin and Xi.

Right now is just the time for western elites to maintain relations with 5th columns inside Russia and China, to win back at home a 20-40% section of the electorate (“the middle” between the hardcore followers of globohomo and the strata that are irretrievably lost for the Agenda) that grew more and more skeptical of the current course as well as to show goodwill and collect allies among Global South leaders.

This detente has written “temporary” all over it.
You do not have to wait any longer than until the coming recession bottomed out.

Posted by: Arminius | Jun 20 2023 12:30 utc | 49

I suspect that your argument with reference to Article 38 on UNCLOS does not stand up to scrutiny.

The reason why it doesn't is because there is an "or" in the quoted section.

As in: "except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas OR through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics."

The Taiwan strait has Chinese territorial waters 12 nautical miles off the Chinese mainland, and also 12 nautical miles off the Taiwan shoreline.

But in between those two there is a passageway that is "only" within the exclusive economic zone of China.

It is an arguable point that the US Navy enjoys a right of innocent passage through that zone, even if Article 38 says that it enjoys no such right through the territorial waters on either side of that zone.

At least, that's how I read it.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 20 2023 12:34 utc | 50

But instead USAF will use northern
Sweden as springboard for attacking
Russia's 2 d-strike capability from
their Murman bases. These days 2 of
the B1B Lancer bombers operated from
Luleå F21 airbase, Kallax, with escort of Swedish JASfighters. The escalation dials up, a month ago
B52 bombers did a test run, against
Petersburg, but it is not a threat
claims Sweden, they know that Russia
has an angel's patience. But Turkey
has not approved Sweden as Natomember
yet,but when, Sweden may provoke a war with Russia,"as best pupil in the
class".

Sweden took part in the destruction
by Nato of Libya, 2011,with 8 JAS, and the little innocent Norway bombed
and by that culprits to the disaster
on the sea,750 drowned outside Greece, that trafficking was organi-sed from Libya, now in Civil war and
slavemarkets, now Ukraine will be the new Libya, the usual Natoproduct.


Posted by: Readet | Jun 20 2023 12:38 utc | 51

https://news.yahoo.com/more-republicans-want-fight-mexico-210201669.html

War with Mexico is possible - or at least recreational bombing. The smart way to start is hit drug labs with missiles and say, 'we don't know'. If nothing else, the Ukr war will eventually compete with some military distraction somewhere. It's just how the US is.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 12:38 utc | 52

Don't ever expect the US to change its "spots"
as long as they exist.
There may perhaps come a phase of retreat but
no turnabout in objectives.

Only way to solve is is dissolution of the USA.
Fallout: those "leaders from behind" will just
change the place they work from.

Posted by: MAKK | Jun 20 2023 12:42 utc | 53

The world stopped being unilateral 10 years ago and much of it has been China-lead since 2016.
MAGA was a 2016 slogan but accurate in admitting US was no longer on top.

What we have seen since about 2012 has been the US spitefully denying the plain obvious.
Ukraine as spite is much easier to understand than Ukraine as US constructive policy to stay on top.
ditto pretty much all other US foreign policy for the last decade.

Still I don't think the US is giving up that quick - that will require an incoming new President to admit - much as though Trump left Afghanistan defeat for Biden to deal with.

So why did Blinken go to China? - not just to have his face slapped - clearly he wanted something. Help in getting out of Ukraine I guess.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jun 20 2023 12:44 utc | 54

Posted by: James2 | Jun 20 2023 9:56 utc | 3

...and many other posts,,,

In the nation of lies, the lie factories never stop production of new product lines!

Who would rationally choose to believe anything from Blinken - the delivery-boy of the latest lie factory product line???????

Ignore the moving lips and print propaganda.......when the lie factory regime and its executives and managers are fired and held accountable for their crimes - then you can start, cautiously, listening to the words the new leaders start speaking!

Based on past behaviour, it is very probable that this "new" policy change is just another fabrication from the endless production line of lies.

Posted by: James Cook | Jun 20 2023 12:45 utc | 55

W.R.T. the length of the meeting between Xi and Blinken, that's not too surprising: Xi is the leader of his country, Blinken is merely the messenger-boy of his. Diplomatic protocol would have them not meeting at all, but a perfunctory meeting is about right. Xi greets, shakes his hand, then hands the incompetent, two-faced lying sack o' shit over to his own foreign minister.

Probably couldn't wait to wash his hands afterwards, plus the obligatory check to make sure his wedding ring wasn't pilfered.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 20 2023 12:46 utc | 56

Others have also commented on this, but words from a US official means nothing.

You'll know that there is more behind it if the US Navy decides that it has something better to do with its time than pointlessly sailing up and down the Taiwan Strait.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 20 2023 12:48 utc | 57

b: "he U.S. threw the towel:"

We're taking random off-the-cuff Biden comments seriously now?

A year ago he said sending F-16s with US pilots was WWIII. Today he's sending F-16s - just not American F-16s.

Anyone who listens to Biden is delusional, b. You should know that by now.

And anyway, none of the neocons around him listen to Biden, you should know that by now, too.

As for this line: "The rest of a then neutral Ukraine, cut off from the sea and the mineral riches of the east, will be handed over to the underling that Russia is willing to accept."

No, Russia won't do that. Sorry, but like everyone else you've misread the entire point of the Ukraine war.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 12:50 utc | 58

So why did Blinken go to China?

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jun 20 2023 12:44 utc | 55

---

Because of Musk and Gates.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 20 2023 12:50 utc | 59

Oh, and no, the US hasn't given up on starting a war over Taiwan. I forgot to mention that.

You need to lay off the weed, b. Random statements by these clowns are not to be taken seriously.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 12:51 utc | 60

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Jun 20 2023 10:21 utc | 9

Exactly. Although as others have pointed out, NATO didn't require Sweden and Finland to go through the MAP protocol. Of course, they aren't at immediate war with Russia...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 12:54 utc | 61

Hello B. and thank you for your article.
Sincerely, I hope that this time again events will prove you right. But, once again, I find you very optimistic.

And, which is rarer, I do not agree with you on one important point: the USA did not lose this war, first it was not their goal to "win" it (even if some of them are convinced of it), just like in Afganisthan, Irack or Syria.
"Goal" was to ruin, plunder and oppress, then chaos. Serve as an exemple and a warning by the same occasion.

Objectively team biden scored some important points:
-put an end (and for a long time) to the normalization of EC & Russia relations
-ending the US nightmare: nord stream aka a German-Russian strong collaboration
-remind European allies/vassals who is in charge
-sustainably ruin the European economy
-expand NATO to the north
-outsource the weakening of Russia to Europe
-finally get ALL NATO members to devote 2% (or much more like Germany) of their GDP to armaments
-not to mention the colossal "superprofits" of the US and related arms industry

I also see a change but I fear that we are still quite far from multipolarity and above all, the empire or its most aggressive castes, try to drag the rest of the world into their pathetic suicide
given the state of mobilization of citizens, it seems difficult to counter them
but not impossible, so let's moving forward

Posted by: Tak-Tik | Jun 20 2023 12:54 utc | 62

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jun 20 2023 12:44 utc | 55
Posted by: too scents | Jun 20 2023 12:50 utc | 59

So why did Blinken go to China?

Because Uncle Sam is about to lose his proxy war in Ukraine and the only one who can pull his arse out of the fire is Xi Jinping.

I'd wager that's the real reason Blinken went all the way to China to kiss the ring of the Red Emperor.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 20 2023 12:55 utc | 63

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 20 2023 11:48 utc | 35

I already debunked Doctorow in the last thread. Go read my post there.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 12:57 utc | 64

Posted by: Readet | Jun 20 2023 12:38 utc | 51

B-52 bombers are a 50-60-year-old joke, only fit for carpet-bombing Third World countries. Russia would swat them and anything else the US sends from the skies.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 12:59 utc | 65

@ b.

U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China

Thanks b. again.
I am not so sure if that is an appropriate title, but to me, it doesn't look so easy and smooth according to the ongoing chain of events to claim that.

The USA is not looking into making a peace or retreating, but more into holding the line there, as in not doubling down for a moment.
Yes, Blinken was talking to Chinese, meaning RF knows exactly what was discussed and definitely knows info and a position that is shared with Xi.
Whatever was said in Beijing, it certainly was not surrender or a retreat. It looks more as a buying the time, till something more sinister is put to roll.
Indicators are current titles from the MSM.
“Blinken warned China again not to send any arms to Russia” booms much of current reporting news on the Blinken's visit.
Also, a fresh headliner from The Guardian at the time of writing this claims “Putin nuclear weapons threat is real, says Biden”.

So, I do not or cannot recognize any positive shift there.
Also, everyone is busy with a lost sub or bathyscaphe, so all eyes are on that.
As easy as West pumped up Ukraine narrative and created anti-Russian barrios around RF, easy deed is needed to climb down that tree, too.

As we know the Western folk are deaf, blind, and dumb and would not matter to them much, whatever they write as a title. In EU everyone is going to holidays as summer is near, and a school is over. Also, those everyone, are oversaturated with Ukraine and a regular 'What you need to know on Russian...(insert at will: attack on kindergarten, school, hospital etc.)' Nobody cares about it, really. Announcing peace is always good news, but we are not yet even close to it there.
At least not until September or a next Euribor rise that breaks the ceiling and makes mortgages and credits unpayable.

When I read on MSM something more encouraging than above, I might believe that there is some shift towards admitting or recognizing the reality on a terrain.
So far, nothing as such currently happens.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 13:02 utc | 66

@unimperator:

Nothing new here. Actually this was an easy assumption a long time ago - AFU will trade cheap penny lives to save valuable, rare and hi-tech Nato vehicles and equipment.

"A man cannot serve two masters, he will either hate the one and love the other, or be devoted to the one and despise the other"

A military operation with conflicting goals is doomed from the start. It certainly appears that the UAF thought they would just bust down the doors of the Russian defense lines like they were made of rotten wood, then have glorious photo-ops of columns of Leopards and Bradleys rolling through to Mariopol like a victory parade.

When their plans hit the rocks, they decided to husband the remaining wunderwaffen because it was giving their sponsors a bad image.

Victory in war must be single-minded. Whatever gives victory should be pursued, and secondary goals like showing off discarded.

But to tie back to the last thread, we know that the UAF has no agency. They do what their Western sponsors insist.

Back to the topic of this thread. I believe it is possible but too early to declare a major turning point. We need to make it through the next three weeks, including the Vilnius summit which is now exactly 3 weeks away.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 20 2023 13:04 utc | 67

How the "Surovkin Line" Works: Analysis

Since June 4th, the AFU have launched 263 attacks on Russian positions as part of the ongoing counteroffensive. All attacks were repelled, but few understand why the Ukrainian army's offensive failed at its peak.

What is the "Surovkin Line"?

It is a defensive system, the first layer of which consists of dozens of fortified fire lanes, including extensive minefields and engineering barriers. This line took nearly eight months to construct, and extends several tens of kilometers in depth. It relies on a well-developed transport and logistics network with hubs and rear bases. Short logistics routes allow the Russian Armed Forces to swiftly transfer reserves from one sector to another without compromising combat readiness on the front line. In simpler terms, wherever the need arises to reinforce firepower, it can be done without withdrawing troops from other sectors.

What is unique about it?

The defensive line is supported by a powerful grouping of artillery and air forces, including Ka-52 attack helicopters and ground-attack aircraft equipped with FAB-250/500 guided glide bombs. In the event of a breakthrough by an AFU mechanized group at one of the fire lanes, aviation is capable of supporting ground forces operating in a "carousel" fashion: while helicopters engage ground targets, strike aircraft and bombers reach the launch point, and after hitting their targets, the helicopters reengage, and the cycle repeats. Meanwhile, strikes on the rear areas of the advancing AFU group in Orehovo and Velikaya Novoselka demonstrate that the AFU offensive has limited air defense. Medium- and short-range air defense systems are either deployed deep in the rear or used very sparingly on the frontline. As a result, a significant amount of senior command staff is being destroyed in the rear, which hampers command and control and, consequently, slows down the pace of the offensive.

What is "elastic defense" and how does it work?

Judging by the dynamics of the offensive, the AFU command undoubtedly relied on a swift breakthrough and the transition of the battle to maneuver warfare. For this purpose, a series of strikes across the Line of Contact was planned, including main attacks and several diversions. These strikes were countered by a combination of tactics known as elastic defense and an artillery grouping, enhanced by observation and fire correction means. It is evident that the Russian Armed Forces on the ground are still operating with comparatively small forces, and the maneuvering element, in terms of operational and tactical reserves, has not yet entered the battle. In the cases of Pyatyhatky in Zaporozhia or Neskuchnoe in the South Donetsk direction, it is clear that Russian forces do not cling to every centimeter of the defensive line in the event of a breakthrough by individual AFU groups. If necessary, they withdraw to reserve positions. The enemy, located then at pre-known coordinates, is subjected to artillery strikes, followed by a counterattack, and the position is returned under the control of the defending forces. Judging by the fact that two weeks after the start of the AFU offensive, they continue to suffer losses from artillery fire, their reconnaissance and counter-battery capabilities are either ineffective or insufficient.

What is the result?

During more than two weeks of the Ukrainian offensive, AFU advances have been observed solely within the gray zone, meaning on territory forward of main Russian defense lines. The AFU has failed to fully seize control of these areas—every attempt to consolidate and expand the bridgehead leads to artillery strikes and air raids, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat and regroup for a new strike.

https://t.me/SLGmaps/336

#Source

(https://t.me/milchronicles/2068)
@Slavyangrad

The key point is they can withdraw when needed, while containing the AFU spearhead and subsequent follow-up groups in a small area. They can then be hit, which has been repeated countless times.

This is why it can be read daily about "lost village in the morning, by night taken back". AFU needs to bring their stuff from the rear to the newly captured point in order to be able to project the next advance, but the new stuff was conveniently piled up in the pre-known location and hit.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 13:04 utc | 68

No one, not Blinken controls US foreign policy - its a blob that self contradicts itself continuously. Also, Russia has a veto and needs new enforced security agreements - Not Minsk XXX of NATO out of east europe. I think this is just the normal noise we have seen again and again from one head of the Biden/Obama/Trump hydra. A trend it is not.

Posted by: ISL | Jun 20 2023 13:10 utc | 69

Thanks for the report B, lets hope this is the beginning of the winding down of this conflict, with Nato forces and weapons supplies are reduced (if that's the case) Russia should end the Ukrainian resistance sooner than later.

Somehow though, I think Washington cannot be trusted to do the right thing, I doubt Russia or China will drop their guards anytime soon.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 20 2023 13:10 utc | 70

Maybe, but to hide behind the skirt of the protocols for joining NATO seems pretty lame at this point. Essentially/Effectively Ukraine was treated as member of NATO, however, even for members of NATO it is said that their are limits to the commitment. So is basically that the US realizes that it is losing the battle and priorities had changed - something more shiny I imagine.

It is said that the US is a collapsing empire. In the late stages of collapse the behavior becomes more frenetic as it seeks something to save it from the fall. Maybe it has past the tipping point. Most of the west is being propped-up by the US - so time to look for other plan. China wobbling to, it is said. Demographic collapse, economic collapse, societal collapse - interesting times.

Posted by: jared | Jun 20 2023 13:13 utc | 71

I suspect that the only reason they are back pedaling is that if they dont, they will be the last people in the empty theater. The only thing I know for sure is that they arent going to start playing nice and singing kumbaya any time soon. Face it, the RoW is rapidly rejecting the US & Friends influence pedaling program. Bullying and sabotage will only get you so far. I cannot recall who in the EU "government" said it, but it was to the effect of: We need to realize that we are being complete dicks to the RoW and they are not going to play ball. They will walk away, arm up and make their own alliances." Go ahead and steal billions from the enemy you have been harassing for decades. Nobody will ever do business with you again. Sanctions? With zero leverage they will not only be ineffective, but they will also guarantee that you are never permitted to operate in the upcoming system. The damage has already been done.

But I suppose that is one of the consequences of believing your own propaganda. Same deal with the "frozen conflict" model. Do they think they can just throw a flag on the field and the fuggin game grinds to a halt? I suppose they will respawn another army while they are at it. At any rate, the pony is black & blue already so I'll leave it there...

Posted by: Chevrus | Jun 20 2023 13:13 utc | 72

It's very convoluted to call Biden's comments on NATO membership for Ukraine as an "admission of defeat". These membership decisions have more to do with the impossibility of a state joining the Alliance while currently at war. If Ukraine did join right now, wouldn't that oblige the other members to put boots on the ground to fight Russia? No one on either side wants that. I never expected NATO to admit Ukraine right now: it wouldn't matter if Ukraine was going at its current rate of progress that matches Russia's year-long rate of progress in Bakhmut, or if it was wiping Russia out; a state currently at war could not join NATO.

I would expect NATO membership for Ukraine with conditions such as no foreign troop buildup or nuclear weapons to be one of the provisions in any peace agreement.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 20 2023 13:21 utc | 73

With this conflict between nato and Russia,we all know that Ukraine is nothing else than a fool carpet of anglo-sionism impérialism.
The ukrainians are the proxis of nato et they are send in first line while the nato troops fight with them in the ground.In reality,nato fight yet against Russia in Ukraine since end of may 2022.

But,and this is un big BUT,nato lose this war,the counter-offensive is a complete disaster,may casualties,many dead et the world change,a new world order arrive with China,Russia,Iran,Brazil,brics,OCS,EEU....
And dedollarisation accelerate,new brics currency on the horizon,many countries wants to be parts of brics,power center in Asia...

Posted by: razor | Jun 20 2023 13:21 utc | 74

Posted by: ISL | Jun 20 2023 13:10 utc | 69

No one, not Blinken controls US foreign policy - its a blob that self contradicts itself continuously.

I agree with that. This is progress for this website, in contrast to Deep-State/Soros/Jewish conspiracy theories.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 20 2023 13:25 utc | 75

Roland @ 41

"Just one more thing: The USA of course - as one of only a handful of remaining countries - does not recognize and is not part of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea."

Maybe not de jure but they will de facto or else.

Posted by: Lawrence Miller | Jun 20 2023 13:29 utc | 76

Thanks for your insight.

Posted by: Dfnslblty | Jun 20 2023 13:31 utc | 77

The next country to be proxy may be Finland and its large army...

Posted by: Liisa | Jun 20 2023 10:03 utc | 4

Don’t worry Liisa, Sweden got your back! We will send all of our 5000 men and women in uniform to protect you from the evil ruskies.

Or wait, we have to guard that 2000 kilometres long country of ours at the same time. So you’ll get 4000 fine specimens from a military that hasn’t been at war for 200 years or so. No need to worry!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 13:34 utc | 78

I'm not sure I buy the notion that the Straits of Taiwan come under the Article 38 Rights of Transit Passage regime.....the straits are 130 km wide at the narrowest....so I can't see how the middle part of the straits can be considered Chinese territorial waters...even though both sides of the strait are the same country. Happy to be shown wrong.

Posted by: Guy Thornton | Jun 20 2023 13:34 utc | 79

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 20 2023 13:21 utc | 73

LOL Ukrainian progress or rate thereof is negative you complete moron. I don't see why you think anyone takes you seriously. Which side has gained territory and which has lost?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 20 2023 13:41 utc | 80

Ukrainian rate of progress lolol hahahaha same as Russia's over a year period hahahaha sorry I just can't help myself these NAFO clown self-owns are too funny. LMAO

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 20 2023 13:50 utc | 81

1997. Senator Joe Biden delivers a 1hr.15min address to the Atlantic Council.
At 15min he starts to recount his discussion in Russia about “central Eastern European” countries joining NATO.
He contradicts himself saying “no one that he spoke to in Russia was concerned”
And then, that Russians told him they’d have to look to China if NATO expanded.
He said: (he said): “good luck with that.” And. “If it doesn’t work out, maybe try Iran” (audience laughs).
So. This is 1997.
In 2007 Putin gives his famous Munich Security Conference talk (with McCain laughing in front row).
2017: USNATO is embedded in Ukraine like lice. Philip Karber is lecturing at West Point on NATO contesting Russia in Ukraine.
2022: The armed conflict between Russia and USNATO in Ukraine that was 25 years in the making, finally kicks off.
And senator Joe Biden is president…. Funny how things work out…

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4965669/user-clip-biden-nato-expansion-june-1997

https://twitter.com/The92ers/status/1670615940591939585

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 20 2023 13:55 utc | 82

Congrats! - MoA took the worldwide .l.e.a.d. on that one. Now I hope that - in the end - your - thesis?! will be proven as having been right.

Posted by: Dieter Kief | Jun 20 2023 13:57 utc | 83

That photo of Xi shaking Blinken’s hand looks like Blinken got the covid anal swab right before the photo. China did anal swab some of Biden’s diplomats so it wouldn’t be surprising. Could you imagine? Damn.

Posted by: Stephanie | Jun 20 2023 13:59 utc | 84

Posted by: Plebs | Jun 20 2023 10:05 utc | 5

This winter? Not next winter? Or winter 2026?
Actually predicted that Germany would suffer winter 2022 from Gas shortage. Nothing happened!
So what makes u sure this winter will be different for Germany?
If the west failed with their sanctions vs Russia u can say Russia failed with the gas „weapon“

Posted by: Moon2day | Jun 20 2023 14:02 utc | 85

Biden and his crack head son, and coat tails following brother are getting into deeper do-do for over $10 million of payments made From China, let alone the other payments from Ukraine.

They can say the money wasn't bribes, or influence peddling, but it seems they forgot to claim it as income, and never paid taxes on it.

The only thing stopping a complete investigation and start pf impeachment, is that the bimbo VP would then be in charge. The one who can't even do simple (highly edited) interviews with softball questions.

At best the deep state can torpedo the Biden campaign, but then have to worry about who will win in 24. RFK Jr seems to be not a favorite of DS, and of course Trump and DeSantis aren't either.

Which leaves my darkhorse....

Pete Buttigieg.

First Gay President! YAaaAA!

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 20 2023 14:02 utc | 86

The more I think about it the more I'm confounded by the sheer chutzpah of this so called "Tactical Pause" the Zelensky regime' has announced.

What gave them the idea they could pause without the Russians saying so?

Did they expect the Russians to pause while they took their little therapy break?

I think they're going to "pause" when General Surovikhin says they can pause, and no sooner ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 20 2023 14:03 utc | 87

Observer | Jun 20 2023 12:22 utc | 46
Apologies. Had scanned thread, but had not seen your post until after I’d posted with a thread refresh.
Have a look at the whole hour delivery.
The Ukrainian Russia sloSMO slaughter is Joe’s life’s work.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 20 2023 14:03 utc | 88

Russian forces seized control of a key tactical position codenamed “Zverinets” between Maryinka and Novomikhailovka. Today, footage taken by our soldiers during the attack appeared on the Internet.

The video shows the process of attacking the fortified area by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After intensive artillery preparation, Russian fighters in armored vehicles with artillery fire support attacked the enemy and managed to throw him out of the “menagerie”.

Also, another video surfaced today about the use of unmanned MTLB charged explosives, which we previously wrote about. Russian troops attacked near the forest belt northwest of the fortified area.
The offensive in this area confirms the control of the RF forces over the “Menagerie” and indicates a further advance south of Maryinka.

The choice of this particular direction is not accidental: the fortress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located on a hill, control of which will allow us to take more advantageous positions before another attack on Pobeda.
https://t.me/remylind21/4046

Video of MTLB vehicle packed with explosives exploding in AFU trench (this time, reached the target apparently):
https://t.me/sharednewsby/5187

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 14:05 utc | 89

@Posted by: Lawrence Miller | Jun 20 2023 13:29 utc | 76

Oh I get that. I just wanted to point out the hypocrisy, especially because the US also aggressively enforces its interests in what the UNCLOS sees as its exclusive economic zone. Rules for thee but not for me...


@ Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 20 2023 13:25 utc | 75

The less simpleminded of course could realize that there is no contradiction between his statement and yours. The US establishment agrees on a lot of things but still has warring factions within itself. At the same time that does not mean there is no "deep-state" or entrenched bureaucracy or however you might call it. And it does not mean that Soros isn't an evil man.

Posted by: Roland | Jun 20 2023 14:06 utc | 90

Just a formal recognition by Biden that the rest of already-in NATO countries are rapidly catching up with the intensity of corruption and overt dictatorship in Kiev-Ukraine?

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 20 2023 14:06 utc | 91

https://thegrayzone.com/2023/06/19/files-british-natos-secret-terror-armies/

If anyone thinks NATO is not capable of terrorism and murder, they need to study Gladio. The subject also shows how the Deep State can get the most outrageous horrors taken off the headlines and buried in inactivity.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 14:07 utc | 92

Chris swiss and Republicofscotland,

I agree. I trust this new stance about as much as the Minsk agreements or Biden's campaign pledge not to mandate the vaccines.

Didn't Sun Tsu say something about an unexpected truce being a sure sign of a sneak attack?

Posted by: team10tim | Jun 20 2023 14:17 utc | 93

Posted by: team10tim | Jun 20 2023 14:17 utc | 94

Didn't Sun Tsu say something about an unexpected truce being a sure sign of a sneak attack?

You may be on to something:

Russia Says Ukraine Planning Massive Attack On Crimea With US Missiles

of course, it's not a sneak attack anymore (if indeed that is the sneak attack being planned) ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 20 2023 14:23 utc | 94

Just taking a wild stab at it, but I think the issue merits serious consideration:

I suggest that attendance of an Ivy League school and/or lack of at least ten years of accomplished work in the private sector should disqualify from consideration of responsible position is the public sector. Something like that. There in lies the problem which we will keep repeating until we can address.

Well that and Hillary Clinton should be sent to Libya for war crimes trial.

Posted by: jared | Jun 20 2023 14:28 utc | 95

If the Repugs are able to pin this all on Biden even while the actual Repug perp Neuland is in the Gov they will really seem to have pulled off a master chess move. Then, if they used the political capital to actually improve the union, social and infrastructure then the world would benefit. But of course they are at least 50% of the problem and so they will squander the opportunity spectacularly on racist policies, anti abortion, religious fanatism, and war as they always do. Too bad for conservatism, and the rest of us as well.

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Jun 20 2023 14:28 utc | 96

I suspect that your argument with reference to Article 38 on UNCLOS does not stand up to scrutiny.

The reason why it doesn't is because there is an "or" in the quoted section.

As in: "except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas OR through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics."

The Taiwan strait has Chinese territorial waters 12 nautical miles off the Chinese mainland, and also 12 nautical miles off the Taiwan shoreline.

But in between those two there is a passageway that is "only" within the exclusive economic zone of China.

It is an arguable point that the US Navy enjoys a right of innocent passage through that zone, even if Article 38 says that it enjoys no such right through the territorial waters on either side of that zone.

At least, that's how I read it.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 20 2023 12:34 utc | 50

Ah nostalgia! Takes me back to my days dealing with the GATT, and its Subsidies Code.

I think that your reading of "or" in Article 38 is wrong (note also that there is no emphasis on "or" in the LOS text). The important S38 extract is "transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics."

In the case of Taiwan there is (underline one) a route through the high seas to seaward (ie to the east) of Taiwan. Therefore transit passage shall not apply. Because of this, it does not matter whether there is an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience etc to that in the middle of the Taiwan strait.

The point is academic though as the US has not ratified the LOS and claims the right to decide itself where it goes

Posted by: Marduk |

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 20 2023 14:46 utc | 97

Unfortunately, this is a deeply over-optimistic analysis.

Posted by: morningmike | Jun 20 2023 14:58 utc | 98

I'm surprised this is not getting as much attention as the other abuse the Chinese heaped on the imperial envoy:

This is key to whether the United States can truly return to an objective and rational policy toward China.

"... return to an objective and rational policy..."?

Let's ignore for now whether the US ever had an objective and rational policy in the first place that it can return to. What this line bluntly states (in faintly diplomatic and less offensive terms) is that American policy is at present irrational and subjective, which is to say it conforms only to conditions that exist in American imaginations rather than the real world. This is about the politest way possible to point out that American policy is deluded lunacy. By extension, the people responsible for that policy are deluded lunatics.

Granted, most westerners are too stupid to comprehend such things as above that to a Chinese (or Russian, for that matter) person are plainly obvious.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 20 2023 15:00 utc | 99

The recent meeting between President Xi and Bill Gates as a representative to the WEF and the US banking oligarchy was clearly the important one. The West is ruled by a financial elite and they have no interest in war with China which they are likely to lose when they have the option of fully implementing a neofeudal, biosecurity surveillance economy which will maintain their wealth and greatly increase their power. Never forget that one of the 2030 WEF predictions along with you own nothing and be happy is that we are entering a multipolar world and that the USA will no longer be the world super power.

As for the war in Ukraine the USA and EU are giving themselves escape routes by keeping Ukraine at arms lengths from their institutions but for as long as war continues to increase the dominance of the USA over the EU it will continue until the last Ukrainian.

America lost this war decades ago when it decided to loot Russia in the 90s rather than integrate it into it's Empire as it had with Japan and West Germany. 4 decades of cold war propaganda left the American ruling class unable to act in a cold rational manner as their predecessors had done in the 40s and 50s.

Posted by: SB | Jun 20 2023 15:01 utc | 100

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