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Ukraine SitRep: Prigozhin Affair – Kramatorsk Missile Attack – Updated
Updated below – June 29, 13:55 UTC
There is still some fallout from the Prigozhin affair.
The U.S. propaganda campaign that falsely claims that Russia has been weakened by Wagner's armed mutiny continues. While citing only 'western' intelligence affiliated sources the Washington Post headlines Putin’s standing as global strongman in jeopardy after revolt. Where please is evidence for that?
The New York Times assists in a useless attempt to sow fear and doubt on the Russian side:
A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.
The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin of course knew that something was up with Wagner. The whole Russian leadership knew of it. Orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down and to let Prigozhin do what he had planned to do.
There was zero action taken by the border guards, the internal security force Rosguardia, by the police and the Russian military. That is unexplainable unless there was an order from very high up to step back instead of seeking a fight. President Putin's primary aim was to avoid unnecessary casualties which he largely achieved.
One miscalculation happened. Wagner had a mobile Pantsir-1 air defense system that tried to cover its convoys on their trip towards Moscow. Several Russian helicopters and a plane where shot down when they came too near to them. It seems that the Pantsirs were a surprise.
Wagner was not supposed to have them:
🌻 Fertilizer Finder 🌻 – @ManiacMagic1 – 19:38 UTC · Jun 27, 2023
A source in the Russian Defense Ministry reports that neither the Ministry of Defense nor the Tula machine-building plant "Scheglovsky Val" sold Yevgeny Prigozhin and his firms the Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile system worth more than $14,000,000. How the "Pantsir" ended up in the possession of the terrorist organization "PMC Wagner" and whether the governor of the Tula region Alexei Dyumin is involved in this, are now being investigated by the investigators of the GVSU of the ICR and the SU of the FSB.
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The source above is pro-Ukrainian so this might be another false claim intelligence play but I think there is some truth to it. Russian air defenses in Ukraine work in an integrated environment where all systems from wide area surveillance and long range defense down to the short range Pantsirs are integrated. Under such a system it never made sense to give Wagner their own independent air defenses. It would instead be provided air cover by the Russian army.
As soon as the Pantsir was observed within the Wagner convoy the Russian military should have shut down the air space near Wagner's route. That it did not immediately do so was a mistake that cost it several capable pilots.
There is still the open question of how many Wagner people were actually involved in the affair. History Legend has counted the transport equipment in the various convoys and estimates 1,500 to 2,000. The number seems reasonable. It means that large majority of the current 20,000 Wagner fighters did not take part in the affair.
In his latest speech Putin said that Prigozhin catering business with the army as well as his other business will now come under scrutiny. There was without doubt some over-billing and fraud involved. Prigozhin should have know that under Putin's regime oligarchs are not allowed to intervene in politics. Putin successfully fought against those oligarchs who tried as soon as he came to power. Prigozhin's attempt to get Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov fired was such an intervention. It will likely cost him his business.
Yesterday there was a Russian* missile strike of unknown provenance* on a hotel complex in Kramatorsk:
The missile tore into the crowded Ria Lounge restaurant at dinnertime on Tuesday, setting off a large blaze that burned for more than two hours. By Wednesday afternoon, the Ukrainian authorities said that 10 people had been confirmed dead — including 14-year-old twin sisters — and 61 others were wounded."
Video from the scene taken immediately after the event show English speaking men with the one helping a wounded exposing a quad angle tattoo with the number 3 written in it on his right arm (see at 7 sec in).
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This is said to be a sign of the 3rd Ranger Battalion of the U.S. army which is a part of the U.S. special operation forces.
Another video taken during rubble clearing at night has a (British?) English speaker saying "Look what these bastards are doing to this country. There's soldiers under this rubble all over."
This seems to confirm that the hotel complex and its restaurant were not exclusively used for civilian purposes but housed and catered to foreign soldiers.
*Update – June 29, 13:55 UTC:
The June 29, 2023 report by the Russian Defense Ministry on the daily operation in Ukraine says (machine translation):
According to updated information, as a result of a high-precision strike on June 27 in the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, at the point of temporary deployment of the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two generals participating in the headquarters meeting, up to 50 officers of the armed forces of Ukraine, as well as up to 20 foreign mercenaries and military personnel were destroyed.
Paul Damascene | Jun 28 2023 23:56 utc | 218–
Thanks for your reply. Yes, it’s over and the time to move on has arrived. I just finished with Lavrov’s The Great Game interview which sort of resets the situation for those concerned. I placed one excerpt onto the Week in Review thread, but it’s not the most important part, which comes at the half-way point where the so-called Zelensky Plan is discussed. The excerpt is long, but that can’t be helped, and I consider it a Must Read for it shows that the position of both sides is to achieve an unconditional surrender of the other, although Russia still says it’s willing to negotiate:
Question: Looking at the war in Ukraine and, more broadly, around Ukraine about the world order, I have a question: who is Russia at war with? If you look at the situation in Ukraine, the ground troops are Ukrainian troops, but weapons, means and intelligence (including in direct mode) are increasingly provided by the West. Planning for military operations is carried out by NATO generals and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Washington. Ensuring Ukrainian military operations, attempts to weaken Russia in obtaining strategic materials or even dual-use materials – this is all carried out by the West. Is it possible to say in this situation that by supporting Ukraine, he is its “patron”? Or do you need to look the facts in the face and say that in fact Russia is at war with NATO, with the “collective West”? Is this a confrontation between Russia and all this, as you said, the “golden billion”, which has turned itself into the Order of the Crusaders?
Sergey Lavrov: Of course, the West is Ukraine’s patron. But Ukraine is his patron in a different sense of the word. It is an instrument of warfare against us. This is not the first time we have paid attention to this. Russian President Vladimir Putin said, assessing the situation on June 24 of this year, that we are confronted by the economic, military and information machine of the entire West. That’s the way it is.
You have listed examples of the fact that without the West, this war would no longer have happened. The goals of the special military operation would have been achieved long ago. Again, I quote EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. More recently, he frankly and even naively said that if someone wants to end the war, it is very easy to do. You just need to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and in a maximum of two weeks everything will be over. But do they want such an end to the war? Borrell added that they have no right to allow Ukraine to be defeated. The Russians must tolerate it.
This is a frank confession. And any military expert commenting on this situation now will confirm that this is the case. The West is fighting against the Russian Federation.
There are many other examples, including the status of foreigners on Ukrainian territory. Someone calls them mercenaries. There are suspicions that a number of countries under their guise are already sending their regular military personnel there. Instructors, who are definitely career military personnel, work in Ukraine. Yes, apparently, not on the line of contact. But there is a huge number of specialists and instructors working there. I remember how during the Maidan (which began in 2013 and ended with a coup d’état), even then representatives of the CIA and other special services of the United States occupied an entire floor in the Security Service of Ukraine. There is no doubt about it. Everything that they are trying to pronounce as “spells” (as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg likes to repeat: NATO is not at war against the Russian Federation) all sounds ridiculous and pathetic. To put it mildly: adults tell outright lies. But it is all the more important to uphold justice.
I mentioned the goals of the special military operation set by President Vladimir Putin. One of them, in addition to demilitarization, is the denazification of Ukraine. We are at war in Ukraine with the West and with Nazism, which has revived in this country and is actively cultivated by our Western colleagues.
Take, for example, their approach to negotiations. They repeat every time this topic comes up that there is only one basis for negotiations – the “formula of Vladimir Zelensky” (10 points). Recently, the West has been trying in every possible way to persuade the leading developing countries, the countries of the Global South, to support this formula. A meeting was recently held in Copenhagen. It seemed to be secretive, but the information still leaked. We asked our colleagues who were represented there what the West, together with the Ukrainians, wanted to do there, inviting the leading countries of the World Majority to it.
The only basis of Vladimir Zelensky’s formula is the position of the West. The President of Ukraine and his entire administration say that there can be no other basis at all. If we remove all sorts of “vignettes” such as environmental, food and nuclear security, it lies in the fact that Russia withdraws from all territories as of 1991, the Russian leadership is placed under a special (or already existing) tribunal, our country pays reparations on the basis of an invoice that will be presented to it, and only after that a peace treaty is concluded.
At the same time, the West says that this is the only way out of this situation, Ukraine defends European and Western civilizational values in this war. This is particularly emphasised by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and other Western politicians.
No one doubts that the Ukrainian regime is a Nazi regime. I will not bother myself and your viewers with examples. They are well known. This regime is racist in connection with the prohibition of the Russian language everywhere, attempts to physically abuse those who dare to violate the law that you can only speak Ukrainian. This means that Europe associates itself with racism, Russophobia and Nazism, since it claims that it is the Kiev regime that professes European values. If so, then all the more we have no other choice but to prevent another revival of Nazism right on our borders.
Question: If I understand Vladimir Zelensky’s position correctly, all the conditions you mentioned are not even conditions for concluding an agreement, but only for starting negotiations. That is, if I understood his position correctly, then this means that Russia must completely capitulate, and after that it will be possible to talk. But it is not clear with whom.
Sergey Lavrov: That’s what I said. Before the start of negotiations. The list of preconditions includes withdrawal to the 1991 borders, then criminal prosecution, reparations, and only then we sit down at the negotiating table.
Question: Do you know of any serious power that could accept such conditions without it being completely defeated on the battlefield?
Sergey Lavrov: I don’t know of any. But there are powers that are considered serious by everyone and support this logic. I am referring to all those who have put their entire reputation and political future on Vladimir Zelensky. The West will not be able to “crawl away” from this absolutely dead-end position without losing face. They know, however, how to “lose face” so that they present to the public as if they had acquired it.
To recap, NATO is at war with Russia using Ukraine as its primary weapon. The Outlaw US Empire commands NATO and appears that once it exhausts its Ukrainian weapon it will use another European nation or group of nations to cause Russia to totally capitulate. IMO, no other solution is acceptable to those presently running the Empire. A complete translation is available at my VK here.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2023 0:39 utc | 235
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