Updated below – June 29, 13:55 UTC
There is still some fallout from the Prigozhin affair.
The U.S. propaganda campaign that falsely claims that Russia has been weakened by Wagner's armed mutiny continues. While citing only 'western' intelligence affiliated sources the Washington Post headlines Putin’s standing as global strongman in jeopardy after revolt. Where please is evidence for that?
The New York Times assists in a useless attempt to sow fear and doubt on the Russian side:
A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.
The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin of course knew that something was up with Wagner. The whole Russian leadership knew of it. Orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down and to let Prigozhin do what he had planned to do.
There was zero action taken by the border guards, the internal security force Rosguardia, by the police and the Russian military. That is unexplainable unless there was an order from very high up to step back instead of seeking a fight. President Putin's primary aim was to avoid unnecessary casualties which he largely achieved.
One miscalculation happened. Wagner had a mobile Pantsir-1 air defense system that tried to cover its convoys on their trip towards Moscow. Several Russian helicopters and a plane where shot down when they came too near to them. It seems that the Pantsirs were a surprise.
Wagner was not supposed to have them:
🌻 Fertilizer Finder 🌻 – @ManiacMagic1 – 19:38 UTC · Jun 27, 2023
A source in the Russian Defense Ministry reports that neither the Ministry of Defense nor the Tula machine-building plant "Scheglovsky Val" sold Yevgeny Prigozhin and his firms the Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile system worth more than $14,000,000. How the "Pantsir" ended up in the possession of the terrorist organization "PMC Wagner" and whether the governor of the Tula region Alexei Dyumin is involved in this, are now being investigated by the investigators of the GVSU of the ICR and the SU of the FSB.
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The source above is pro-Ukrainian so this might be another false claim intelligence play but I think there is some truth to it. Russian air defenses in Ukraine work in an integrated environment where all systems from wide area surveillance and long range defense down to the short range Pantsirs are integrated. Under such a system it never made sense to give Wagner their own independent air defenses. It would instead be provided air cover by the Russian army.
As soon as the Pantsir was observed within the Wagner convoy the Russian military should have shut down the air space near Wagner's route. That it did not immediately do so was a mistake that cost it several capable pilots.
There is still the open question of how many Wagner people were actually involved in the affair. History Legend has counted the transport equipment in the various convoys and estimates 1,500 to 2,000. The number seems reasonable. It means that large majority of the current 20,000 Wagner fighters did not take part in the affair.
In his latest speech Putin said that Prigozhin catering business with the army as well as his other business will now come under scrutiny. There was without doubt some over-billing and fraud involved. Prigozhin should have know that under Putin's regime oligarchs are not allowed to intervene in politics. Putin successfully fought against those oligarchs who tried as soon as he came to power. Prigozhin's attempt to get Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov fired was such an intervention. It will likely cost him his business.
Yesterday there was a Russian* missile strike of unknown provenance* on a hotel complex in Kramatorsk:
The missile tore into the crowded Ria Lounge restaurant at dinnertime on Tuesday, setting off a large blaze that burned for more than two hours. By Wednesday afternoon, the Ukrainian authorities said that 10 people had been confirmed dead — including 14-year-old twin sisters — and 61 others were wounded."
Video from the scene taken immediately after the event show English speaking men with the one helping a wounded exposing a quad angle tattoo with the number 3 written in it on his right arm (see at 7 sec in).
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This is said to be a sign of the 3rd Ranger Battalion of the U.S. army which is a part of the U.S. special operation forces.
Another video taken during rubble clearing at night has a (British?) English speaker saying "Look what these bastards are doing to this country. There's soldiers under this rubble all over."
This seems to confirm that the hotel complex and its restaurant were not exclusively used for civilian purposes but housed and catered to foreign soldiers.
*Update – June 29, 13:55 UTC:
The June 29, 2023 report by the Russian Defense Ministry on the daily operation in Ukraine says (machine translation):
According to updated information, as a result of a high-precision strike on June 27 in the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, at the point of temporary deployment of the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two generals participating in the headquarters meeting, up to 50 officers of the armed forces of Ukraine, as well as up to 20 foreign mercenaries and military personnel were destroyed.