Ukraine SitRep: Destruction Of Its Third Army – Issues To Negotiate

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June 12, 2023

Another Ukrainian attack got bogged down in a minefield.

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Losses:

3 Finnish Leopard 2R with mine clearing equipment
1 German Bergepanzer III recovery tank (based on the Leopard 2 chassis) with mine clearing equipment
2 German Leopard 2M6
2 U.S. M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
1 U.S. MaxxPro armored transport vehicle
1 U.S. HMMWV armored transport vehicle
1 unidentified vehicle

This follows other significant recent losses.

The total replacement cost of the above vehicles at present value is about $60-70 million.

During the spring and summer of 2022 the Russian forces destroyed the regular Ukrainian pre-war army. It was replaced with Soviet era material from east European states and Ukrainian draftees. By the beginning of this year that second army had also been destroyed.

What we currently witness is the demilitarization of Ukraine's third army.

As I detailed back in January:

The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.

That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.

I do not sense any appetite in the U.S. or Europe to send their soldiers into Ukraine. It is quite obvious that their fates would be no different from the Ukrainian ones.

That leaves negotiations as the only option. There will be a lot of hesitation as the price Russia will ask for to stop the war will be high:

For starters, will Russia insist on securing the rights to all territory east of the Dnieper River and on a special status for Odessa? I think so. Odessa would no longer be ruled by Ukraine. I also would expect Russia to demand (non-negotiable) the arrest and prosecution of those responsible for the murder of 42 Russian speaking Ukrainians in 2014 who sought refuge in the Trade Unions House.

I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine. In light of Russia’s stated goal of de-nazification I would not be surprised if Russia demands the laws of Ukraine be changed and that Nazi-affiliated parties and symbols be banned.

I believe that Russia will want all historic Russian regions, at least those which Lenin and Khrushchev for whatever reasons gave to Ukraine, back under Russian control. Russia will also demand the lifting of all sanctions against it.

The West is failing to grasp the reality that Russia believes it is winning the war in Ukraine and that it is not suffering economic or political damage at home. And, when you factor in the international arena, the war has proven to be a boon for Russia’s efforts to help create a new international financial/trade system that circumvents Washington’s control. In other words, Russia has little incentive to entertain negotiations that would require Russian concessions.

It will still need some time for the 'western' public to move from swallowing 'Ukraine is wining' propaganda towards acknowledging reality. It unfortunately will also still take more Ukrainian and Russian losses.

But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.

Posted by on June 12, 2023 at 14:47 UTC | Permalink

Comments

I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine.

Please include that demand for countries that share a border with Russia.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2023 14:49 utc | 1

As an aside, having looked at the pictures and seen the number of vehicles dissabled or totally destroyed, I am reminded of the high intensity combat in (a) North Africa and (b) after the normandy landings when British and American forces went up against the Germans. There are pictures of multiple destroyed vehicles in the historical photographs. What we see here it seems is no different. Peer-to-peer comabt is brutal in its intensity, lethality, and the amount of equipment that gets totalled.
Of note, too, is that all “Western” kit is as prone to destruction as the supposedly “inferior” Russian ones. A tank given a killer blow completely destroys it. In the case of Western tanks this takes out 4-5 crew members. The Russian autoloader and 3-man crews mean less human losses in a similar situation.
The West crowed when it appeared that Russian armoured forces had a hard time against entrenched UKrs. Not so much when the boot is on the other foot. But the sad reality is that such high intensity warfare is lethal, especially to the attacker. In some respects, it is WWII rematch but with more precision weapons and new capabilities. The defence has the edge here big time. Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn’t so costly.

Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

thanks b… i see you got rid of the other 2 repeat links and the comments too, lol..
i can’t see your wishful scenario at the bottom myself.. i wish i could, but i suspect the usa-uk-nato empire is going to stick around for a longer time and will not accept defeat on or off the battle field..
it is fine for people around the planet – whether russia or everywhere else – wanting to see justice and fairness, but i doubt very much the western msm is going to cease and desist in the huge propaganda exercise they have willingly engaged in the past however many years..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 3

Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn’t so costly.
Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2
##############
A contemporary offense without substantal air power is doomed to lose a lot of men and materiel.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 4

US needs to admit its role in this, and pay reparations, in addition to (somehow, how can the US government be trusted by anybody rational) guaranteeing no more NATO expansion or regime change efforts against Russia. Heads need to roll at the UN, too, which has permitted decades of lawless crimes by the US. and that has to stop.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 5

and dismantle NATO. that should have ended with the USSR.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:55 utc | 6

Upon the Ukraine “de-militarizing”, the war will go “guerilla”.

Posted by: Robbie | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 7

@ pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:55 utc | 6
yes, but realistically, can you see this happening any time soon? i sure can’t.. 10 or more years maybe..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 8

I think the western establishment is systematically delusional, and they think that if they fight to the last (Polish?) battalion, then Russia will cave. I suspect wise heads will not prevail and NATO will continue to escalate, up to midnight, and perhaps beyond.

Posted by: marcjf | Jun 12 2023 15:00 utc | 9

thanks b… i see you got rid of the other 2 repeat links and the comments too, lol.
Typepad acted up on me.

Posted by: b | Jun 12 2023 15:01 utc | 10

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 8
no, I think there needs to be (hopefully) peaceful mass uprisings in NATO countries, starting with the US. otherwise imo there is a massive war on the horizon, because China and Russia are not going to keep being on the receiving end of this. things are worse here for a lot of people, (in the US), i don’t know where the tipping point for such a massively propagandized population is going to be.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 11

A contemporary offense without substantal air power is doomed to lose a lot of men and materiel.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 4
And an offense without air power into a dug-in defense with air power is what?
And the offensive strategy looks a lot like a Zerg Rush.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 12

But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.

My belief is maybe not as strong, but I do agree that we are seeing the ‘beginning of the end’. Even irrational actors cannot deny physical reality forever.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2023 15:04 utc | 13

Lifting of sanctions at the very least Russia will (or should) insist on having all of their central bank assets unfrozen.
Forcing the U.S. / EU to drop their extraterritorial sanctions targeting exports to the global south is reasonable but that goes completely against our DNA.
Putin probably does not care as much about the sanctions having to do with exporting NG to the EU.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 14

The US or any of its eurovassals cannot be involved in a negotiation re. Ukraine situation. They are direct participants in the war. Theoretically if they were to be negotiated with and any of the mentioned goals achieved, they simply cannot be trusted (at all) to implement or comply with any of the agreed term per historical events relating to past Minsk agreements or respect of sovereign rights and security.
The negotiation must be done with someone else, rising from within Ukraine, perhaps Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov etc. itself. Or it must be done with all those individual regions separately.
In practice, there may be some negotiation between some high ranking US swamp character and people like Patrushev. They will talk about things that will never be published to the cattle in the west. Perhaps they will make some sort of agreement re. Ukraine and RU neighboring state roles in Nato. But once again, since US swamp cannot be trusted, inevitably will lead to a larger war.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 15

No deal. Odessa must return in its motherland, the Russia. Ukraine, Belarus, Finland and the three balts midgets become Russian republics like Tatarstan and Buryatia. And NATO must be dismantled. The defeat of western elites must be total for all the pain and lives they destroyed.

Posted by: America is defeated | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 16

Given the situation on the battleground and the aims and ambitions of the USA it is almost certain that a debate is in progress. In Washington as to whether to use one mor more tactical nuclear weapons to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.
The central issue is whether and how the Russians might respond, would the West get away with it without a full blown nuclear response.?
Russia needs a convincing and public deterrent that falls short of an all out nuclear exchange.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 17

How exactly is it logical to extrapolate one failed offensive push to a hypothetical failure of the counter-offensive in general?
And if there are succeeded offensive pushes – which there were, since Russians admit losing some villages on the south – could we, by the same logic, extrapolate this to Ukrainian tanks in Moscow by this year?

Posted by: Retherma | Jun 12 2023 15:06 utc | 18

I still think that the Russians are going to have to go all the way to the Polish border in order for reality to settle on the West. Nothing less than the decisive defeat of Ukraine by Russia is going to jolt the West out of its delusions of military supremacy and imminent victory.

Posted by: Monos | Jun 12 2023 15:07 utc | 19

US History and Foreign Policy:
Ya can never be secure in any treaties with USA/NATO. They do not honor their agreements.
“Because situations change”, they say.
Sometimes overnight.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2023 15:08 utc | 20

Question Of The Day: Who’s holding the ‘winning hand’, the US or Zelensky?
Zelensky and his crew may realize the whole counteroffensive is futile and the losses are huge. He could say, “no offensive until we get F-16’s” and put it off for months.
OTOH, the US may say “No way, we’ve given you enough and we have a war to schedule with China and we’re WAY behind on that, so suck it up and fight”
Who prevails?…………. I say Zelensky. Biden and the Neo Cons are frustrated and angry but can’t admit defeat. It would be unthinkable. Exhaustion hasn’t really set in yet, as happened with Afghanistan. The whole mess works out very well for China as the draining of US/EU military continues without let up. And fighting a two front war ( hello, mein Fuehrer?) is still OK with the Neo Con psychopaths.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 12 2023 15:10 utc | 21

ukranazi with nato direction, and western wunderwaffen are not getting the russian skirmishers rattled much less making them fall back.
if the russians were taliban…..

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:12 utc | 22

I don’t understand how any commander would order an offensive against an enemy who has virtually complete air superiority and artillery. Maybe by sacrificing thousands of drafted in conscripts, perhaps they use the russian speaking draftees from the east to do this, they will reach the first defence line, though after a whole week of attempts that is debatable, but by the time the second is reached the army would be broken and unable to do more.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 12 2023 15:12 utc | 23

It is an identitarian as well as a geostrategic conflict, therefore it is extremely doubtful that it will end any time soon. Russia cannot back track and must secure a significant number of additional Ukrainian oblasts (regions) to create a deep enough buffer zone on its border. Otherwise, the Russians would have to face extreme losses in face of further Western aggression. Additionally, they must secure several economic important areas such as the sea port of Odessa or the Kryvbas to compensate for wartime losses and to stabilise the worn out four oblasts annexed last year. Not to forget the ideological component – the Russians cannot tolerate Banderites and other fascist elements on their border, therefore they must hunt them down until this threat is removed.
The West, in turn, cannot give up on its Ukrainian puppets as Kyiv is a too important pawn on the global chess board. Especially Washington has invested too much (in terms of money as well as armament et cetera) since the early 2000s, so it cannot let its Ukrainian project simply get shattered or transformed into a mere rump state. As the Western wish is to weaken or dismantle Russia in preparation of the renewed onslaught against China, they will just pump more and more resources into Ukraine. Furthermore, there is pressure from mainstream media outlets to continue the fight for “freedom and democracy” against the evil steppe orcs. How could they replace a narrative, elaborated and strengthened over years, in a month or two?
So, what is likely? If the Banderites crack the Russian defensive lines in the east or south of Ukraine and threaten or even havoc Crimea or other important Russian regions, Russia will and must fully mobilise and use measures which had been withhold until now. If the Ukrainian attacks falter and Russia sweeps with its long held back own offensive across the river Dnieper, the West will intervene to at least preserve the Galician oblasts. Maybe the Russians will be okay with that, but in both cases further escalation seems to be the most likely outcome.

Posted by: Seneschal | Jun 12 2023 15:13 utc | 24

Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn’t so costly.
Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2
Assuming this is possible at all (not granted), WHO would invent them and out of WHAT wisdom exactly? NATO chicken-hawks out of Hollywood history?
Can’t help it. I love to quote this American (sic!) book.
This Cassandra effect, the fact that the book written in America and collected all possible awards in America and needed by today American elites and commoners critically – yet totally memory-holed, it feels me with some awe, like waking inside ancient greek tragedies and helplessly looking at steamrolling fatum.
Fragment: Zineru
The learned student has much to contribute to the game. However, the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be told to us by the players.
The players have seen and felt the metal; the students have only theorized about it.
https://royallib.com/read/Longyear_Barry/enemy_papers.html#163746

Zineru wrote its book in a much earlier era, a time of sea-going ships and military denve armed with swords, spears, clubs, and arrows. There were also athletic competitions between different denve, different cities, and different schools.

As Maltak Di used to use puzzles and illusions to teach its students, Zineru used games, athletic events. Zineru’s passion was the multiplicity of truth: the many meanings of truth and truth’s many kinds and forms. Its favorite lesson was to have its students take a game and study it, applying all of the lessons of talma, to devise a means of winning through superior theory.

The students would study, interpret, and explore the reduced extremes of all of the rules, the plays, even the conditions of the land and weather where the contest was to be held. They would study the physical form and determine how best to utilize players in running, throwing. and so on. They would work out their new plays, devise their strategies, assign the best of themselves to the various positions, and then they would inform Zineru that they were ready to play.

The Jetah would then employ the least successful team of nonprofessional kovah players it could find and set this team against its students. Without fail Zineru’s students would be annihilated, and the Jetah would tell its battered theorists the lesson: “The learned student has much to contribute to the game. However, the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be told to us by the players. The players have seen and felt the metal; the students have only theorized about it.”

Zineru’s truths.

The work of the Talman masters has much to contribute to the peace of Amadeen, but the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be supplied by the Mavedah killer, Yazi Ro. The masters have only theorized about war. Yazi Ro has walked in the blood.

Posted by: Arioch | Jun 12 2023 15:14 utc | 25

Naturally the NATO+ alliance will never formally agree to these conditions, facts on the ground will be what matters in the end. Through additional sanctions, the west will gradually isolate themselves.
Then Borrel said the quiet part out loud today:

“Without a doubt, the situation would have been completely different if Trump had been president. From the point of view of politics and geopolitics, everything would be different. That’s why elections are so important, especially in the US. It is obvious that China can influence Russia. If I were Putin’s friend, like the Chinese, I would say, “Hey, you made a big mistake, fix it as soon as possible.” This is what we expect from China: to influence Putin to stop this war.”

Is that not “election interference?

Posted by: Ghost of Bernays | Jun 12 2023 15:14 utc | 26

@ 10 b…
thanks regardless…
@ pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 11
agreed.. thanks for your commentary!

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 15:17 utc | 27

ukranazi with nato direction, and western wunderwaffen are not getting the russian skirmishers rattled much less making them fall back.
if the russians were taliban…..

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:17 utc | 28

I think there are two largely separate issue:
– What is to be done with Ukraine
– Security arrangement for Europe/Russia
I suspect Europe will allow Ukraine to languish/fester as a failed state – don’t see that US/Europe/NATO have any interest to resolve the issues and let Ukraine recover.
Then I expect US/Europe/NATO to not doing anything constructive to address the security of Europe.
Since Russia is not going to want to repeat WW2. This will mean ongoing nuclear tension.
Russia needs to focus on it’s economy and formation of alternate trading sphere. If that pans-out, the west will come to it’s senses and want to do business. Basically, a new cold war. But Russia should not focus on the war part just focus on making itself strong and independent.

Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2023 15:18 utc | 29

The west will form a new army made up of “volunteers,” mainly comprised of Russophobic, Eastern Europeans.
The west won’t quit until the west is hurt which makes dedollarization critical.

Posted by: Alaric | Jun 12 2023 15:19 utc | 30

@ Seneschal | Jun 12 2023 15:13 utc | 26
i share your viewpoint.. good overview.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 15:20 utc | 31

Concession to Russias demands methinks are unlikely, no negotiations will take place soon, as it all depends on US politics. Nothing will be done by Joe Biden even if Robert Kennedy wins the nomination.
Therefor serious peace talks will be postponed , to be left for whoever wins the US presidential elections in November 2024.
Perhaps In the next few months the Ukrainian army will collapse along with an increasingly desperate West who will try to push Poland into the war, the polish army is reluctant and not ready to take up the role.
Russia forces will at some time likely cross the Deniper and position themselves along Polands Western Boarders.
THESE AREAS COULD BECOME PART OF INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNISED RUSSIAN TERRITORY UNDER A PEACE AGREEMENT
Crimea
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Donetsk Oblast
Luhansk Oblast
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Odesa Oblast
Kharkiv Oblast
Mykolaiv Oblast
Central and western Ukraine will be demilitarised and and one of Russias demands may be long range weapons removed from countries bordering Ukraine.

Posted by: Jaffa Levy | Jun 12 2023 15:24 utc | 32

The SMO will conclude sometime at the 2nd, 3rd quarter of 2024, I think. It will also means the NATO will have to capitulate. The NATO has nothing win with anymore. No super-duper weapons, no cat’s paw Ukraine. The Global South will celebrate the defeat of NATO, which consists mostly of the former colonial invaders.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:25 utc | 33

I would agree with b’s conclusion if it wasn’t for the fact that we are not dealing with rational actors. Washington is insane and has no reverse gear. They will not stop, they will not back down. They will escalate and since they don’t have the conventional forces to win, their deranged minds will think the unthinkable.
I hope I am wrong, but I see no signs of even the slightest glimmer of rationality in their behavior.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 12 2023 15:25 utc | 34

it’s hard to fathom how Ukraine can hold out through this month, much less the whole summer. i wish i could agree negotiations would start soon, but can’t imagine that either. an ultimate scenario would be what johnson said, but also, the complete dismantlement of Nato and i think the longer this goes on, the more it weakens Nato.
Seneschal: it cannot let its Ukrainian project simply get shattered or transformed into a mere rump state.
Losers don’t get to chose. People in the US won’t “get it”, what they understand is prices going up, de-dollarization. faster please. just make it all go away.

Posted by: annie | Jun 12 2023 15:26 utc | 35

If/when China decides to take over Taiwan, how many countries in Asia, Africa and South America would go against that?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:27 utc | 36

I think b is too optimistic. I doubt the US and NATO will stop at this 3rd army because i) they will never accept Russia defeated them, and ii) they would never agree to the demands listed above. Nor do I think will Russia accept any Ukro-NATO rearming on its borders under a “Minsk-3” peace plan.
I suspect a 4th army will be coming from Poland and Northern Europe with “volunteers”.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37

Posted by: Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:29 utc | 38

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