I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2023 14:49 utc | 1

As an aside, having looked at the pictures and seen the number of vehicles dissabled or totally destroyed, I am reminded of the high intensity combat in (a) North Africa and (b) after the normandy landings when British and American forces went up against the Germans. There are pictures of multiple destroyed vehicles in the historical photographs. What we see here it seems is no different. Peer-to-peer comabt is brutal in its intensity, lethality, and the amount of equipment that gets totalled.

Of note, too, is that all "Western" kit is as prone to destruction as the supposedly "inferior" Russian ones. A tank given a killer blow completely destroys it. In the case of Western tanks this takes out 4-5 crew members. The Russian autoloader and 3-man crews mean less human losses in a similar situation.

The West crowed when it appeared that Russian armoured forces had a hard time against entrenched UKrs. Not so much when the boot is on the other foot. But the sad reality is that such high intensity warfare is lethal, especially to the attacker. In some respects, it is WWII rematch but with more precision weapons and new capabilities. The defence has the edge here big time. Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn't so costly.

Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

thanks b... i see you got rid of the other 2 repeat links and the comments too, lol..

i can't see your wishful scenario at the bottom myself.. i wish i could, but i suspect the usa-uk-nato empire is going to stick around for a longer time and will not accept defeat on or off the battle field..

it is fine for people around the planet - whether russia or everywhere else - wanting to see justice and fairness, but i doubt very much the western msm is going to cease and desist in the huge propaganda exercise they have willingly engaged in the past however many years..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 3

Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn't so costly.

Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

##############

A contemporary offense without substantal air power is doomed to lose a lot of men and materiel.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 4

US needs to admit its role in this, and pay reparations, in addition to (somehow, how can the US government be trusted by anybody rational) guaranteeing no more NATO expansion or regime change efforts against Russia. Heads need to roll at the UN, too, which has permitted decades of lawless crimes by the US. and that has to stop.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 5

and dismantle NATO. that should have ended with the USSR.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:55 utc | 6

Upon the Ukraine "de-militarizing", the war will go "guerilla".

Posted by: Robbie | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 7

@ pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:55 utc | 6

yes, but realistically, can you see this happening any time soon? i sure can't.. 10 or more years maybe..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 8

I think the western establishment is systematically delusional, and they think that if they fight to the last (Polish?) battalion, then Russia will cave. I suspect wise heads will not prevail and NATO will continue to escalate, up to midnight, and perhaps beyond.

Posted by: marcjf | Jun 12 2023 15:00 utc | 9

thanks b... i see you got rid of the other 2 repeat links and the comments too, lol.
Typepad acted up on me.

Posted by: b | Jun 12 2023 15:01 utc | 10

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 8

no, I think there needs to be (hopefully) peaceful mass uprisings in NATO countries, starting with the US. otherwise imo there is a massive war on the horizon, because China and Russia are not going to keep being on the receiving end of this. things are worse here for a lot of people, (in the US), i don't know where the tipping point for such a massively propagandized population is going to be.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 11

A contemporary offense without substantal air power is doomed to lose a lot of men and materiel.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2023 14:54 utc | 4

And an offense without air power into a dug-in defense with air power is what?

And the offensive strategy looks a lot like a Zerg Rush.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 12

But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2023 15:04 utc | 13

Lifting of sanctions at the very least Russia will (or should) insist on having all of their central bank assets unfrozen.

Forcing the U.S. / EU to drop their extraterritorial sanctions targeting exports to the global south is reasonable but that goes completely against our DNA.

Putin probably does not care as much about the sanctions having to do with exporting NG to the EU.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 14

The US or any of its eurovassals cannot be involved in a negotiation re. Ukraine situation. They are direct participants in the war. Theoretically if they were to be negotiated with and any of the mentioned goals achieved, they simply cannot be trusted (at all) to implement or comply with any of the agreed term per historical events relating to past Minsk agreements or respect of sovereign rights and security.

The negotiation must be done with someone else, rising from within Ukraine, perhaps Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov etc. itself. Or it must be done with all those individual regions separately.

In practice, there may be some negotiation between some high ranking US swamp character and people like Patrushev. They will talk about things that will never be published to the cattle in the west. Perhaps they will make some sort of agreement re. Ukraine and RU neighboring state roles in Nato. But once again, since US swamp cannot be trusted, inevitably will lead to a larger war.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 15

No deal. Odessa must return in its motherland, the Russia. Ukraine, Belarus, Finland and the three balts midgets become Russian republics like Tatarstan and Buryatia. And NATO must be dismantled. The defeat of western elites must be total for all the pain and lives they destroyed.

Posted by: America is defeated | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 16

Given the situation on the battleground and the aims and ambitions of the USA it is almost certain that a debate is in progress. In Washington as to whether to use one mor more tactical nuclear weapons to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.

The central issue is whether and how the Russians might respond, would the West get away with it without a full blown nuclear response.?

Russia needs a convincing and public deterrent that falls short of an all out nuclear exchange.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 17

How exactly is it logical to extrapolate one failed offensive push to a hypothetical failure of the counter-offensive in general?

And if there are succeeded offensive pushes - which there were, since Russians admit losing some villages on the south - could we, by the same logic, extrapolate this to Ukrainian tanks in Moscow by this year?

Posted by: Retherma | Jun 12 2023 15:06 utc | 18

I still think that the Russians are going to have to go all the way to the Polish border in order for reality to settle on the West. Nothing less than the decisive defeat of Ukraine by Russia is going to jolt the West out of its delusions of military supremacy and imminent victory.

Posted by: Monos | Jun 12 2023 15:07 utc | 19

US History and Foreign Policy:

Ya can never be secure in any treaties with USA/NATO. They do not honor their agreements.

"Because situations change", they say.

Sometimes overnight.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2023 15:08 utc | 20

Question Of The Day: Who's holding the 'winning hand', the US or Zelensky?

Zelensky and his crew may realize the whole counteroffensive is futile and the losses are huge. He could say, "no offensive until we get F-16's" and put it off for months.

OTOH, the US may say "No way, we've given you enough and we have a war to schedule with China and we're WAY behind on that, so suck it up and fight"

Who prevails?............. I say Zelensky. Biden and the Neo Cons are frustrated and angry but can't admit defeat. It would be unthinkable. Exhaustion hasn't really set in yet, as happened with Afghanistan. The whole mess works out very well for China as the draining of US/EU military continues without let up. And fighting a two front war ( hello, mein Fuehrer?) is still OK with the Neo Con psychopaths.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 12 2023 15:10 utc | 21

ukranazi with nato direction, and western wunderwaffen are not getting the russian skirmishers rattled much less making them fall back.

if the russians were taliban…..

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:12 utc | 22

I don’t understand how any commander would order an offensive against an enemy who has virtually complete air superiority and artillery. Maybe by sacrificing thousands of drafted in conscripts, perhaps they use the russian speaking draftees from the east to do this, they will reach the first defence line, though after a whole week of attempts that is debatable, but by the time the second is reached the army would be broken and unable to do more.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 12 2023 15:12 utc | 23

It is an identitarian as well as a geostrategic conflict, therefore it is extremely doubtful that it will end any time soon. Russia cannot back track and must secure a significant number of additional Ukrainian oblasts (regions) to create a deep enough buffer zone on its border. Otherwise, the Russians would have to face extreme losses in face of further Western aggression. Additionally, they must secure several economic important areas such as the sea port of Odessa or the Kryvbas to compensate for wartime losses and to stabilise the worn out four oblasts annexed last year. Not to forget the ideological component – the Russians cannot tolerate Banderites and other fascist elements on their border, therefore they must hunt them down until this threat is removed.
The West, in turn, cannot give up on its Ukrainian puppets as Kyiv is a too important pawn on the global chess board. Especially Washington has invested too much (in terms of money as well as armament et cetera) since the early 2000s, so it cannot let its Ukrainian project simply get shattered or transformed into a mere rump state. As the Western wish is to weaken or dismantle Russia in preparation of the renewed onslaught against China, they will just pump more and more resources into Ukraine. Furthermore, there is pressure from mainstream media outlets to continue the fight for "freedom and democracy" against the evil steppe orcs. How could they replace a narrative, elaborated and strengthened over years, in a month or two?
So, what is likely? If the Banderites crack the Russian defensive lines in the east or south of Ukraine and threaten or even havoc Crimea or other important Russian regions, Russia will and must fully mobilise and use measures which had been withhold until now. If the Ukrainian attacks falter and Russia sweeps with its long held back own offensive across the river Dnieper, the West will intervene to at least preserve the Galician oblasts. Maybe the Russians will be okay with that, but in both cases further escalation seems to be the most likely outcome.

Posted by: Seneschal | Jun 12 2023 15:13 utc | 24

Offensive operations need a new way to operate that isn't so costly.
Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

Assuming this is possible at all (not granted), WHO would invent them and out of WHAT wisdom exactly? NATO chicken-hawks out of Hollywood history?

Can't help it. I love to quote this American (sic!) book.

This Cassandra effect, the fact that the book written in America and collected all possible awards in America and needed by today American elites and commoners critically - yet totally memory-holed, it feels me with some awe, like waking inside ancient greek tragedies and helplessly looking at steamrolling fatum.

Fragment: Zineru
The learned student has much to contribute to the game. However, the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be told to us by the players.
The players have seen and felt the metal; the students have only theorized about it.

https://royallib.com/read/Longyear_Barry/enemy_papers.html#163746

Zineru wrote its book in a much earlier era, a time of sea-going ships and military denve armed with swords, spears, clubs, and arrows. There were also athletic competitions between different denve, different cities, and different schools.

As Maltak Di used to use puzzles and illusions to teach its students, Zineru used games, athletic events. Zineru’s passion was the multiplicity of truth: the many meanings of truth and truth’s many kinds and forms. Its favorite lesson was to have its students take a game and study it, applying all of the lessons of talma, to devise a means of winning through superior theory.

The students would study, interpret, and explore the reduced extremes of all of the rules, the plays, even the conditions of the land and weather where the contest was to be held. They would study the physical form and determine how best to utilize players in running, throwing. and so on. They would work out their new plays, devise their strategies, assign the best of themselves to the various positions, and then they would inform Zineru that they were ready to play.

The Jetah would then employ the least successful team of nonprofessional kovah players it could find and set this team against its students. Without fail Zineru’s students would be annihilated, and the Jetah would tell its battered theorists the lesson: "The learned student has much to contribute to the game. However, the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be told to us by the players. The players have seen and felt the metal; the students have only theorized about it."

Zineru’s truths.

The work of the Talman masters has much to contribute to the peace of Amadeen, but the hard truths, the ones that cannot be manipulated, will be supplied by the Mavedah killer, Yazi Ro. The masters have only theorized about war. Yazi Ro has walked in the blood.

Posted by: Arioch | Jun 12 2023 15:14 utc | 25

Naturally the NATO+ alliance will never formally agree to these conditions, facts on the ground will be what matters in the end. Through additional sanctions, the west will gradually isolate themselves.

Then Borrel said the quiet part out loud today:

"Without a doubt, the situation would have been completely different if Trump had been president. From the point of view of politics and geopolitics, everything would be different. That's why elections are so important, especially in the US. It is obvious that China can influence Russia. If I were Putin's friend, like the Chinese, I would say, "Hey, you made a big mistake, fix it as soon as possible." This is what we expect from China: to influence Putin to stop this war."

Is that not "election interference?

Posted by: Ghost of Bernays | Jun 12 2023 15:14 utc | 26

@ 10 b...

thanks regardless...

@ pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:03 utc | 11

agreed.. thanks for your commentary!

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 15:17 utc | 27

ukranazi with nato direction, and western wunderwaffen are not getting the russian skirmishers rattled much less making them fall back.

if the russians were taliban…..

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:17 utc | 28

I think there are two largely separate issue:
- What is to be done with Ukraine
- Security arrangement for Europe/Russia

I suspect Europe will allow Ukraine to languish/fester as a failed state - don't see that US/Europe/NATO have any interest to resolve the issues and let Ukraine recover.

Then I expect US/Europe/NATO to not doing anything constructive to address the security of Europe.

Since Russia is not going to want to repeat WW2. This will mean ongoing nuclear tension.

Russia needs to focus on it's economy and formation of alternate trading sphere. If that pans-out, the west will come to it's senses and want to do business. Basically, a new cold war. But Russia should not focus on the war part just focus on making itself strong and independent.

Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2023 15:18 utc | 29

The west will form a new army made up of “volunteers,” mainly comprised of Russophobic, Eastern Europeans.

The west won’t quit until the west is hurt which makes dedollarization critical.

Posted by: Alaric | Jun 12 2023 15:19 utc | 30

@ Seneschal | Jun 12 2023 15:13 utc | 26

i share your viewpoint.. good overview.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 15:20 utc | 31

Concession to Russias demands methinks are unlikely, no negotiations will take place soon, as it all depends on US politics. Nothing will be done by Joe Biden even if Robert Kennedy wins the nomination.
Therefor serious peace talks will be postponed , to be left for whoever wins the US presidential elections in November 2024.
Perhaps In the next few months the Ukrainian army will collapse along with an increasingly desperate West who will try to push Poland into the war, the polish army is reluctant and not ready to take up the role.
Russia forces will at some time likely cross the Deniper and position themselves along Polands Western Boarders.
THESE AREAS COULD BECOME PART OF INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNISED RUSSIAN TERRITORY UNDER A PEACE AGREEMENT
Crimea
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Donetsk Oblast
Luhansk Oblast
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Odesa Oblast
Kharkiv Oblast
Mykolaiv Oblast
Central and western Ukraine will be demilitarised and and one of Russias demands may be long range weapons removed from countries bordering Ukraine.

Posted by: Jaffa Levy | Jun 12 2023 15:24 utc | 32

The SMO will conclude sometime at the 2nd, 3rd quarter of 2024, I think. It will also means the NATO will have to capitulate. The NATO has nothing win with anymore. No super-duper weapons, no cat's paw Ukraine. The Global South will celebrate the defeat of NATO, which consists mostly of the former colonial invaders.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:25 utc | 33

I would agree with b's conclusion if it wasn't for the fact that we are not dealing with rational actors. Washington is insane and has no reverse gear. They will not stop, they will not back down. They will escalate and since they don't have the conventional forces to win, their deranged minds will think the unthinkable.

I hope I am wrong, but I see no signs of even the slightest glimmer of rationality in their behavior.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 12 2023 15:25 utc | 34

it's hard to fathom how Ukraine can hold out through this month, much less the whole summer. i wish i could agree negotiations would start soon, but can't imagine that either. an ultimate scenario would be what johnson said, but also, the complete dismantlement of Nato and i think the longer this goes on, the more it weakens Nato.

Seneschal: it cannot let its Ukrainian project simply get shattered or transformed into a mere rump state.

Losers don't get to chose. People in the US won't "get it", what they understand is prices going up, de-dollarization. faster please. just make it all go away.

Posted by: annie | Jun 12 2023 15:26 utc | 35

If/when China decides to take over Taiwan, how many countries in Asia, Africa and South America would go against that?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:27 utc | 36

I think b is too optimistic. I doubt the US and NATO will stop at this 3rd army because i) they will never accept Russia defeated them, and ii) they would never agree to the demands listed above. Nor do I think will Russia accept any Ukro-NATO rearming on its borders under a “Minsk-3” peace plan.

I suspect a 4th army will be coming from Poland and Northern Europe with “volunteers”.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37

I think b is too optimistic. I doubt the US and NATO will stop at this 3rd army because i) they will never accept Russia defeated them, and ii) they would never agree to the demands listed above. Nor do I think will Russia accept any Ukro-NATO rearming on its borders under a “Minsk-3” peace plan.

I suspect a 4th army will be coming from Poland and Northern Europe with “volunteers”.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:29 utc | 38

Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37
--------

It doesn't really matter, whether or not the US/NATO excepts defeat or not.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:29 utc | 39

Posted by: Alaric | Jun 12 2023 15:19 utc | 30

I totally agree with you.

The only way for this to end without becoming ww3 is the collapse of the European economies and the USD.

Posted by: A.L. | Jun 12 2023 15:30 utc | 40

pretzelattack: I think there needs to be (hopefully) peaceful mass uprisings in NATO countries, starting with the US.

you're not going to see anything like that in the US, not until things get way way worse here. Europe, yes. once Europe rises up in mass, the US public will see that. the media will have to explain to the people we have lost and they won't do that until it is unequivocal, which apparently it isn't, yet.

Posted by: annie | Jun 12 2023 15:30 utc | 41

The US could not contemplate such an ignominious "Versailles" humiliation. It would nuke Kiev first and blame the RF.

RF simply needs to continue with the stated goals of the SMO and park its tanks on the Polish border and raise the RF flag over Odessa.

Then handle it. The RoW is s1ck sh1t of US wars.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 12 2023 15:30 utc | 42

How can Russians agree on anything with a country that cheats, lies, dismisses, despises, disrespects and hates them?
The only discussions possibly ongoing in the White House is how to screw Russia next time.

Posted by: scc | Jun 12 2023 15:32 utc | 43

Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37
--------

It doesn't really matter, whether or not the US/NATO acceptss defeat or not.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:33 utc | 44

Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37
--------

It doesn't really matter, whether or not the US/NATO accepts defeat or not.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2023 15:33 utc | 45

@ annie | Jun 12 2023 15:26 utc | 35

---

Remember how Nickle prices blew up the London Metals Exchange after the SMO kicked off?

The same problem will apply to pricing debt denominated in dollars should Russia prevail in Ukraine.

The sudden discount on dollars that would happen should Russia "win" forces NATO/the West/Ukraine to fight.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2023 15:33 utc | 46

don firineach, what's "The RoW"?

Posted by: annie | Jun 12 2023 15:34 utc | 47

@ annie | Jun 12 2023 15:26 utc | 35

---

Remember how Nickle prices blew up the London Metals Exchange after the SMO kicked off?

The same problem will apply to pricing debt denominated in dollars should Russia prevail in Ukraine.

The sudden discount on dollars that would happen should Russia "win" forces NATO/the West/Ukraine to fight.

---

Repost???

Service Unavailable

XID: 184392971

Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2023 15:34 utc | 48

Posted by: Retherma | Jun 12 2023 15:06 utc | 20

Can you read this article which directly refers to Russia losing 3 villages? Btw, Russia took back one earlier.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-61123-ukraine-reorients-and

Posted by: Surferket | Jun 12 2023 15:35 utc | 49

What b suggests could have been achieved through negotiations as Putin suggested in December 2021.

At that point the West was totally unwilling to negotiate on the basis that Russia had legitimate security concerns. Unfortunately I see no change in the Western mindset, and thus no basis to achieve the "soft landing" b suggests. Russia may be winning in the field, but that is all.

In my view a more likely scenario is a collapse of the Ukrainian military, and cessation of Western arms supplies to remaining cohesive Ukrainian units, and economic support to Ukraine. Ukraine will economically collapse, and as a society too. The West will try to forment guerilla war within the former Ukraine.

No agreements will be reached between Russia and the West, and a stand-off for decades will ensue. During this period, probably sooner than later, the economic house of cards that is the West will collapse.

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 12 2023 15:35 utc | 50

Posted by: Robbie | Jun 12 2023 14:58 utc | 7

Upon the Ukraine "de-militarizing", the war will go "guerilla".

That's Putin's specialty. He'll be calling up a few of his friends from the 2nd Chechen war ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 12 2023 15:39 utc | 51

Is that not "election interference?
Posted by: Ghost of Bernays | Jun 12 2023 15:14 utc | 26

EU does not like orange boy. msm in EU was against him. For the first time they were making fun of the US president. I saw news stations where Americans are shown as a superior race making fun all day long of his hair, color, speeches, actions and everything else. They were showing parodies. It was clear which US factions control EU media. Watching his exclusion from future elections will be even funnier. Banana republic

Posted by: rk | Jun 12 2023 15:39 utc | 52

As Stalin would put it: Let us not get dizzy with success. Instead of a laundry list of what a Russia-on-the-heels-of-a-crushing-victory might demand when NATO sues for peace, it would be more interesting to look at what NATO might do if Russia doesn't settle under what NATO would consider to be "reasonable terms."

There is a fairly prominent current in the Empire's think tank-schools of international relations node that is arguing for arming Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons or, yes, sending Polish and Baltic troops to invade Belarus and Eastern Ukraine. This is probably not in the likely cards, but there has been a general call up of doctors with military experience in Poland, and lots of NATO foreign policy elites are beginning to advocate for providing "legally-binding" security guarantees to Ukraine that would obligate NATO to protect Ukraine even if that meant intervening on the territory of Russia itself. None of this would be popular in NATO-stan, but let us not forget that LBJ ran as the "peace candidate" in 1964 and that millions across the US, Canada and Europe marched in opposition to invading Iraq.

Just for the sake of argument, how would Russia respond to a NATO invasion of Belarus or conventional attacks on troop concentrations and defense infrastructure in Russia? And how could a general nuclear exchange be avoided?

To me that seems a more relevant subject of discussion than a fantasy-based wish list based on an assumed Russian smashing victory that won't be happening -- if at all -- until years into the future. The tooth fairy doesn't exist.

Posted by: William Verick | Jun 12 2023 15:40 utc | 53

@Annie

RoW Rest of World

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 12 2023 15:40 utc | 54

I guess we will know that they are losing when they shut down MoA. Is there any backup (tg channel or something) for that case?

Posted by: Orgel | Jun 12 2023 15:43 utc | 55

I don’t understand how any commander would order an offensive against an enemy who has virtually complete air superiority and artillery

The elimination of the population of Ukraine is part of the plan, the Blackrocks and Cargills etc aim to pick up all the vacant farmland at bargain prices.
If Zelenksy and his cronies are eliminated there is less chance of witnesses to the Biden scams.
Shareholders in US arms companies will rest easy knowing the resupply of arms to Europe will boost the bottom line for years to come.
Tactical minutae and Russia bad is keeping the world's eyes off the erosion of living standards, the growing police state and unfolding environmental catastrophes.

Posted by: Dadda | Jun 12 2023 15:44 utc | 56

To me that seems a more relevant subject of discussion than a fantasy-based wish list based on an assumed Russian smashing victory that won't be happening -- if at all -- until years into the future. The tooth fairy doesn't exist.

Posted by: William Verick | Jun 12 2023 15:40 utc | 53

I don't agree with your last paragraph, Ukraine is running out of men and weapons, and NATO is running out of weapons to send them. no tooth fairy required to forecast a massive Russian victory, and Biden is facing opposition on the home front.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:44 utc | 57

I suspect a 4th army will be coming from Poland and Northern Europe with “volunteers”.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jun 12 2023 15:28 utc | 37

Correct.

It is hardly even a question at this point. I still don't understand what exactly the plan is here though -- there will be no Article 5 protecting Poland from getting turned into a blanket of quartzite if it does that...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 12 2023 15:48 utc | 58

Things should start coming to an end in Ukraine when things start hotting up around Taiwan.

Posted by: Keith | Jun 12 2023 15:49 utc | 59

no way West concedes a defeat. no way they negotiate with Russia.

Western Governments will have to collapse en masse and riots need to happen on the streets and then we might be close to a peace agreement.

And remember what Macgreggor says. I agree 100%. "you don't kill the sacred cow. noone does. it just dissapears"

this will go the same way the Covid battle went. Remember when governments were threatening citizens with all kinds of penalties and loss of freedoms if they don't vaccinate?

then one day it all just went way. poof.

same thing will happen here. Ukraine disaster will just go away poof. never happenened. somehow. how that will happen is still a big question. but 100% it will happen like this.

I doubt this happens until again, governments collapse en masse. this will take a while. most likely more than 1 year.

so 1 year from today. chances are we will still be talking about the war in ukraine and the offensive, counteroffensive, weapons supply, meat grinders, etc.

Posted by: Comandante | Jun 12 2023 15:50 utc | 60

@marcjf, #9:

No the West is not delusional to think Russia will cave if they order Pols to fight to the last battalion. It's just one of many tactics that may win them something but that they have nothing to lose. Empire has done this routinely.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 12 2023 15:50 utc | 61

I still think that the Russians are going to have to go all the way to the Polish border in order for reality to settle on the West. Nothing less than the decisive defeat of Ukraine by Russia is going to jolt the West out of its delusions of military supremacy and imminent victory.

Posted by: Monos | Jun 12 2023 15:07 utc | 19

If Russia were to win decisively and go all the way to the Polish border, two things will happen: First, the West will indeed abondon its delusion of imminent victory. And second, they will switch into full war gear real fast. They may not have the industrial capacity right now, and they may have brought this upon themselves, but they will never ever tolerate a total Russian victory. They will go nuclear if they have nothing else left and are unable to buy sufficient time.

That's precisely why Russia needs to go slow, assuming they can afford it. So slow in fact, that the West never really feels fundamentally threatened. NATO needs to exhaust itself to the point where they can't continue on one hand, and on the other have no reason to go nuclear because Russia is perceived to be always just hanging on.

Posted by: Tlaloc | Jun 12 2023 15:50 utc | 62

Lulu:

Great posts! Just wondering why would China accept a Blinken visit.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 12 2023 15:52 utc | 63

...on having all of their central bank assets unfrozen.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jun 12 2023 15:05 utc | 14+

I am not Nabiullina but if i was - those assets should had been retuirned in gold (or gold equivalent) at prices (of both assets and gold) at the day of their theft. Unfrozing their nominal value in today inflated trash paper EU and USD are quickly becoming would be equivalent to a partial theft.

And maybe a fee for several years of profitting from stolen assets, on top of it, like average banks loan rate or something. But even if to forgive them the interest, still the real value should be returned. I do not think for Russia it would be okay position to say "you return 40% of what you stole and we pretend it is ok".

...meanwhile Netherlands doubled down on stealing ancient golden treasure from Crimea.

Posted by: Arioch | Jun 12 2023 15:52 utc | 64

As long as positions remain relatively where they are, NATO believes it is "holding the line" against Russia, and is happy to continue to provide all the weapons it can. It will also send in Polish/Baltic "volunteers." I imagine many in DC are obtuse enough to send US soldiers, in a final "throw of the dice" before US sheeple actually start to notice.

We are not close to the end of this war.

Posted by: Charles E. Fromage | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 65

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 14:55 utc | 6

and dismantle NATO. that should have ended with the USSR.

I've written enough about rationality, or lack of it, in US decisions, so won't repeat. But wars are bloody expensive and this particular war isn't quite the racket an American war usually is. It's really time to pull out, simply to cut costs. The USA had to accept painful losses before, and they'll have to do it again. The signs are on the wall and of course there will be future coup attempts, guerrilla warfare, sabotage and so on.

It's not as if 2022-2023 was entirely bad for US capital interests either: energy exports, domestic dominance, extreme grip on allies=vassals. The deindustrialisation of Germany alone might trigger a little nice Wirtschaftswunder on US soil.

Posted by: Konami | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 66

Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

We’ve been transitioning in this direction a long time, but it was disguised by the conflicts that the media focused on; however, astute students could read between the lines: Turkey v Kurds, ISIS v Iraq, IDF v Hezbollah, Armenia v Azerbaijan, and Ukraine v separatists; all pointed to the defender’s natural advantages being boosted, whilst the attacker’s were significantly reduced, often by existing technologies being more readily available. The pendulum will swing back but, unless there is a massive over-match, the age of the armour heavy, big-arrow moves, has gone the way of volley fire and cavalry charges.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 67

As long as positions remain relatively where they are, NATO believes it is "holding the line" against Russia, and is happy to continue to provide all the weapons it can. It will also send in Polish/Baltic "volunteers." I imagine many in DC are obtuse enough to send US soldiers, in a final "throw of the dice" before US sheeple actually start to notice.

We are not close to the end of this war.

Posted by: Charles E. Fromage | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 68

Posted by: Scots bloke | Jun 12 2023 14:50 utc | 2

We’ve been transitioning in this direction a long time, but it was disguised by the conflicts that the media focused on; however, astute students could read between the lines: Turkey v Kurds, ISIS v Iraq, IDF v Hezbollah, Armenia v Azerbaijan, and Ukraine v separatists; all pointed to the defender’s natural advantages being boosted, whilst the attacker’s were significantly reduced, often by existing technologies being more readily available. The pendulum will swing back but, unless there is a massive over-match, the age of the armour heavy, big-arrow moves, has gone the way of volley fire and cavalry charges.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 69

I don't agree with your last paragraph, Ukraine is running out of men and weapons, and NATO is running out of weapons to send them. no tooth fairy required to forecast a massive Russian victory, and Biden is facing opposition on the home front.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2023 15:44 utc | 57

Not so fast.

NATO still has superiority in terms of air power and can deal a severe blow on Russia if it makes a serious attempt. They will of course lose most of their planes if they try that, but they only need a few successful sorties, and this will likely be combined with a massive cruise missile attack from ships in the Baltic and the Arctic. Look up how many destroyers and SSGNs the US has with how many VLS cells each (I don't know if they actually have missiles and warheads for all of them, but if they do, there is no stopping that salvo, even with Russia's best-in-the-world air defenses).

Of course then Putin will have to press the red button.

In fact he will have to press it before the attack is launched (which will be obvious before it begins).

So I still don't know what exactly the plan is here, but they might be sufficiently crazy to think they can attack Russia and win without being vaporized in return.

Certainly it would not have gotten to this point otherwise...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 12 2023 15:56 utc | 70

@59

the republic of china on Formosa is a bur under the pec’s saddle.

substantial minority on Formosa have close links to mainland, and the ‘democracy’ of chiang Kai sheik heirs who would have been, rightly hanged, is propaganda.

prc has no career in invading.

the fruit will ripen and fall

but neocons

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:57 utc | 71

@59

the republic of china on Formosa is a bur under the pec’s saddle.

substantial minority on Formosa have close links to mainland, and the ‘democracy’ of chiang Kai sheik heirs who would have been, rightly hanged, is propaganda.

prc has no career in invading.

the fruit will ripen and fall

but neocons

Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2023 15:58 utc | 72

@Comandante | Jun 12 2023 15:50 utc | 60

no way West concedes a defeat. no way they negotiate with Russia.

The "West" does not get to pick and choose.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2023 15:59 utc | 73

just hit the reply button once and rely on the fact it will post.. thanks...

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2023 16:02 utc | 74

Someone in the US swamp announced that they will start training Ukro F-16 pilots. So indeed this won't be ending. The only hope is that the flow of defectors from AFU increases, which will help the war slow down and weaken Natokraine enough to render it impotent. Which will cascade more defeat for Natostan. After that as Russia shows more progress, irreversible progress against Nato, new characters will pop up and eliminate the Nato controlled nazis in Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 12 2023 16:03 utc | 75

At this point, the 'war' should be seen through the prism of Joe Biden who is completely compromised vis a vis Ukraine. Plus an election coming up in which Democrats have zilch. The backlash against the 'woke' has legs. To lose a 'war' and give Russia Ukraine after years and years and years of Russia bashing lies, how does Crime Team Biden expect to win and stay out of prison?

The policy of the USA is to double-down on failure. Only one thing will end this war sooner rather than later - Bye-Bye Biden.

Which I fully expect.

Posted by: gottlieb | Jun 12 2023 16:03 utc | 76

I broadly agree with b and his quote from Larry Johnson, but I'm not optimistic that the neocons will submit to such a set of conditions initially. Occupying all of Ukraine and demilitarising and de-Nazifying the country with be the first goal. Then reconstruction of the parts Russia plans to permanently incorporate into the RF. But as the entire global balance moves inexorably out of the US empire's grip--including de-dollarisation, weakening EU economies and the illegal sanctions losing their effect--there remains one final nail in the US coffin. That is, the end of the shale oil boom. The downward slope of the fracking bubble. It is only a matter of a few years before the energy balance totally changes, and OPEC+ is less than friendly to Washington's designs. Checkmate.

Posted by: tawharanui | Jun 12 2023 16:06 utc | 77

What is happening on the battlefield IS the negotiation. Russia knows that the US/NATO is not agreement capable.

Posted by: SingingSam | Jun 12 2023 16:06 utc | 78

Given what Blinken said in Finland last week--essentially "Russia's losing; we'll stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes"--(The crushed-look on Judge Napolitano's face when that clip was played during his interview with Alastair Crooke was quite apt. See week in review thread for link.) So, there'll be no negotiations as Crooke notes because it's an Election Year Cycle where continuing to manipulate the "optics" and Narrative is more important than addressing reality. And the Ukraine Narrative must be juxtaposed with the China/Taiwan Narrative, this GT Editorial being indicative. This new op/ed also provides food for thought, "US risks declining to ‘a political Third World nation’ amid partisan struggle". The Neocon Hawks have yet to realize their talons are clipped.

As for the ongoing struggles with minefields, Simplicius's latest again details how modern tech weapons make them very difficult to penetrate. What's also clear is that the ubiquity of such fields isn't consistent along the entire FEBA as weak places do exist. Now, we must wonder if those weak areas were made that way to channelize Ukie troops into lowland killing zones, for that's certainly what I see. As I commented earlier, what we're seeing is ideal Field Manual deployment of anti-armor minefield tactics, which are greatly facilitated by modern minelaying methods. How to defeat those methods presents a big challenge to both sides for Russia isn't the only player with such tech.

And while the frontline assaults are getting the most attention, missile and drone assaults on the Ukie Rear continue. The weather is forecast to be rainy over the next several days, so we'll see what affect that has. An overall summation is the meatgrinder of Bakhmut has moved to larger non-urban areas of the FEBA where the same attrition continues at much higher levels for the Ukies. When you're armored infantry inside your APC just getting off the start line and you get hit with an ATGM from 20km away, not only do you take casualties but you're now useless in the assault that has yet to occur. And that kills whatever motivation your group may have entertained.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 12 2023 16:07 utc | 79

I've written enough about rationality, or lack of it, in US decisions, so won't repeat. But wars are bloody expensive and this particular war isn't quite the racket an American war usually is. It's really time to pull out, simply to cut costs. The USA had to accept painful losses before, and they'll have to do it again. The signs are on the wall and of course there will be future coup attempts, guerrilla warfare, sabotage and so on.

It's not as if 2022-2023 was entirely bad for US capital interests either: energy exports, domestic dominance, extreme grip on allies=vassals. The deindustrialisation of Germany alone might trigger a little nice Wirtschaftswunder on US soil.

Posted by: Konami | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 66

Too much is at stake.

Short term, they need another multi-trillion injection into the arm to prop up the economy, the way they did in the 1990s with the USSR collapse. Which resulted in the transfer of untold trillions from East to West and ensured its prosperity in the period between 1992 and 2008. However, that ran out, so now they need to reinflate things somehow. They tried doing it by pumping the system with debt, but that does not work, you need real resources. So they need to now dismember Russia too and loot it.

Longer term, contrary to what the conspiracy loons around here will tell you, climate change and resource depletion are real things, and feature very prominently in the planning of the top powers. They are not telling you in order to not spread panic, just as they told you that the pandemic is over (but it really isn't -- look at Putin today giving state awards and how all the security and staff were masked; what does that tell you?), but that doesn't mean the problem isn't real and extremely serious.

So Barbarossa 2.0 it is for that big juicy chunk of northern Eurasia that will be a lot less negatively affected than many other areas while also holding huge mineral riches.

Again, too much is at stake here, so they will not just pack up and leave the way they did in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 12 2023 16:09 utc | 80

Posted by: Konami | Jun 12 2023 15:55 utc | 66

The deindustrialisation of Germany alone might trigger a little nice Wirtschaftswunder on US soil.

So far I have seen zero evidence of German Industry moving to the US, but moving to China is a different story!

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 12 2023 16:14 utc | 81

Posted by: scc | Jun 12 2023 15:32 utc | 43

-----
/you forgot: they steal.

Posted by: AI | Jun 12 2023 16:14 utc | 82

The Armed Forces of Ukraine still have a huge shortage of personal equipment and equipment for soldiers.

The deficit is felt right down to socks, shorts and T-shirts. Soldiers have to buy most things at their own expense. Not to mention ammunition and body armor. If the unit has a car, then maintenance and refueling of the car at its own expense.

Many are wondering where the transferred billions of dollars of loans from the Ministry of Defense and the Office of the President are going.

Here the answer is simple: they steal and write off. According to papers and reports, everyone has enough of everything and everything is fine.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:16 utc | 83

so they will not just pack up and leave

Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 12 2023 16:09 utc | 80

---

You will know the conflict is ending when the stock exchanges in New York don't open. Like what happened after 9-11.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2023 16:16 utc | 84

NEGOTIATED PEACE:

The Russians do not trust the West after Minsk. That is going to hinder any peaceful resolution.

The USA can not have its hegemony fall apart in which Russia is pushing for. That is going to hinder any peaceful resolution.

That only leaves one way out.

Posted by: young | Jun 12 2023 16:17 utc | 85

Our source reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine threw maximum forces on the Zaporozhye direction (Azov offensive). Now there are huge influxes of heavy equipment. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have situational success.

One of our sources opined that there is a huge risk that this long offensive could become a “pyrrhic victory” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, when the result is, but the price is very high. There will be no reserves left, which can create a huge threat to repel a broad counter offensive by the enemy.

We are watching... After all, Zelensky oversees the entire offensive personally, once again going for broke. This situation was in the Bakhmut meat grinder.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:17 utc | 86

Just in case you were wondering how mobilisation is going in Ukraine

In the Cherkasy region, a man lost consciousness after being beaten by military commissars. Videos are published locally. According to them, the incident occurred on June 1.

The military enlistment office chases the man in the park, then presses him against the fence near the pizzeria. While one soldier holds the man by the neck, the second one punches him in the chin, causing the man to lose consciousness and fall to the ground.

The military commissars dragged the passed-out man from the scene of the incident.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:19 utc | 87

Our source adds how dangerous the wedge attack is, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now using in the Azov direction in the Zaporozhye region.

When the Armed Forces of Ukraine cut through the Russian defenses with large forces and enter, they have little room for maneuver. After all, everything around is covered in mines - this is the main difference from the Kherson and Kharkov offensives, where there was no such thing and the Armed Forces of Ukraine could maneuver on light vehicles as you like.

By receiving this territory, you actually get one road of life, which will always be blocked. You have weeks to try to clear mines, but at that moment the opponent will destroy your best shots among sappers and equipment.

This is the essence of a Pyrrhic victory, when there will be some kind of result for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the price will be huge.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:22 utc | 88

Way too optimistic.

Russia will accept whatever pebbles is offered to it, simply because it will see no alternative.

Whilst I do not think the west is ready for negotiations yet, I predict that all outcomes of such a negotiation will both appear and in practicality be in the Wests favor.

They will be allowed to keep the Donbass and Crimea, but no international recognition will be forthcoming. This is the current and de facto situation, so nothing new or revealing here. No refund of monies seized and no significant sanctions relief.

The remaining part of Ukraine will be denied access to NATO, but this will be on paper only and for a limited time. Within 10 years, Ukraine will be NATO.

Why do I say this?

I am simply going on past and current decisions and outcomes. After a year of fighting, 'Russian' territory, ie the Donbass region is still being pounded with artillery and missiles. No forward movement has occurred except for the initial push and Russia has no way of demanding punishment of the Odessa murderers. Ukraine will simply say that it is up to their legal system and that they cannot find enough evidence for any convictions.

The West will simply offer 'peace' to the breakaway republics and Russia will accept it because Putin has no stomach for fratricide or the possibility for nuclear war and in general is quite the pacifist. Watch his own interviews regarding his past and career path.

Russia will remain ostracized and vilified.

It comes down to this, what can Russia threaten the west with that will prevent this from happening? They cannot make any inroads to the people who are ACTUALLY in charge, so the west will feel no threat.

Beating on a Gang leaders henchman does not in any way affect the Gang leader. They simply do not care. Russia is no threat to USA or indeed any major country in Europe and Ukraine is meaningless to them except as a way to irritate Russia.

Russia will accept crumbs and present it to the Russian people as a win.

This prediction relies V Putin being still in charge. If that changes, then all bets are off.

I understand that to most of this boards members, this is very distasteful. But this is completely in line with past and current happenings. Time will tell of the outcome.

Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Jun 12 2023 16:24 utc | 89

South Africa was once the world's leader in anti-landmine protection. The USA's MRAP's are based on the Casspir vehicle of the South African Police Service.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNoc4yNelaQ

But while these tall MRAP's are good for landmines, they aren't really useful for much else. Given the landmine problem in Ukraine another South African idea might be worthwhile pursuing. The 8 wheel rooikat vehicle was known to drive through landmines, even saw videos of it still moving after 3 wheels on one side were blown up.

https://twitter.com/Ninja998998/status/1342719360859856896?lang=en

To rapidly clear a path through a minefield, a combination of a heavy cluster bomb barrage followed by high speed 8 wheel drive mine resistant vehicles with independent suspension on each wheel driving and wheel spinning through the minefield should work. A cluster bombing of sufficient density, where the cluster munitions explode on landing or after a few seconds of landing, should blow up like 50-70% of the mines and the 8 wheel drive mine resistant vehicles can clear a path through what remains, allowing the tracked vehicles a relatively safe passage through the minefield. So the mine resistant vehicles would have to lead every armoured assault. Only the driver is needed in the wheeled mine resistant vehicles, not guns or troops, and the tires can have enough steel in them to set off the magnetic mines. The 8 wheeled mine resistant vehicles would need to be designed with the rapid field replacement of damaged tires, suspension and transmission in mind. Wheeled vehicles are cheaper and faster and so more expendable than tracked vehicles, Russia can easily put together a 10 wheel behemoth for mines clearing duties.

Posted by: gT | Jun 12 2023 16:25 utc | 90

Our source reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have long been forming huge reserves of manpower in the Dnepropetrovsk region. All of them are intended for an offensive that has already begun.

At the same time, most of the blows of the UAV kamikaze Geranium fall in this area. It is also known about the large forces accumulated precisely in Krivoy Rog, from where they can be used to force the shallowed Dnieper above the Kakhovskaya dam.

Accumulation in Krivoy Rog was in advance, as if someone knew about the break of the dam and the "shallowing" of the Dnieper.

Now the discharge from the DneproHES in Zaporozhye has decreased. Many predict even a reset stop. Specially, so that in hot July, when there is a drought, it is easy to force a water barrier, which can turn into a "brook".

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:25 utc | 91

In the Zaporozhye direction, the Russians have begun to use more aviation with guided bombs in recent days. The blows fall on the near rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement of Orekhov.

Most likely, the air raid took place at the time of the oncoming attack of the RF Armed Forces on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which they recently occupied.

According to our data, there is now a real "steppe massacre". A lot of burning heavy and light armored vehicles. Losses are also big. It's too early to talk about numbers.

The office of the President requires the General Staff to urgently open a second front "on the Dnieper".

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:26 utc | 92

I think the "Volunteers from NATO" ship has already sailed. There has been nothing to prevent war enthusiasts from joining Ukraine all along. They seem to have declined in number and I think some would argue that there was never that many anyway. And there are reports of resignations of soldiers in EU states.

The EU are full of sheep and 'soy boys'. The Baltic states talk tough but I heard Estonia was first to reject sending troops. Their low birth rate/emigrating populations are a bad choice for foreign military adventures. The Polish populace seems very unenthusiastic about actually fighting.

The question remains, does Zelensky go on strike? Refuse to fight until he gets a lot more stuff? If their core army is about 70K, they might lose it in two or three months at this rate.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 12 2023 16:27 utc | 93

There can be 4th, 5th, 6th and more armies. Russia will destroy them all. All Russia needs to do is keep provoking Ukraine so that Ukraine keeps attacking and losing. Avoid an armistice like in Korea, but also avoid going deep into Ukraine, which is dangerous and expensive. Eventually, the West will tire of Ukraine or Ukraine will do something to offend the West. Either way, West will eventually turn off the money spigot and that's when Ukraine finally collapses for real. Russia can then finance a puppet government to take control. This is several years off.

Posted by: Revelo | Jun 12 2023 16:28 utc | 94

The war will end when the Ukrainians rise up with their Russian brothers and march on Warsaw having crushed the 4th Reich in Kiev. That they have not done so already amazes me. It will happen sooner than you think.

Posted by: FundMe | Jun 12 2023 16:29 utc | 95

But what about the sanctions?

"Germany may be forced to curtail or even turn off industrial capacity if the agreement between Ukraine and Russia on gas transit is not extended after its expiration at the end of next year," German Economy Minister Robert Habek Germany.

To whom is war, and to whom gas is cheaper ...

Colleagues, this is being achieved by Britain and the United States, which will only benefit from the fact that the Germans will have to buy gas at a higher price than their competitors. Plus, they will buy from the same British and Americans.

This will lead to the fact that old Europe, like Germany, will bury all its 30 years of industrial growth. Their business will have to move its production to those countries where it can compete, which will greatly affect the economic well-being of the EU and Berlin.

Based on this news, we can understand that the British and Americans will prolong the Ukrainian crisis until this point in order to derail the gas negotiations (make them impossible).

Well, in the fall of 2024, the elections in the United States, and the Ukrainian crisis is one of the main factors in Biden's election case.

The conclusion has long been obvious, the Germans have become impotent in geopolitics, which means that almost nothing depends on them.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:29 utc | 96

Our source in the OP said that during the week of the counter-offensive, we have not yet been able to shoot down even one Russian plane or helicopter.

The total dominance of the enemy in the sky does not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out quick operations, as was the case in the Kharkiv region. TsIPSO should prepare several cognitive campaigns that, through the statements of the LOMs and the General Staff, will promote the destruction of Russian aviation.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:31 utc | 97

I think the dynamic at play here is whether Biden allows Ukraine to call off the offensive and switch to defense. If they do, they can still slow down the Russian advances for quite some time. However, the winds in Washington seem to blow both ways - from wanting to wrap up this adventure by having the Ukrainians reenact the charge of the light brigade to allow the US to pivot to Asia (regardless of how much they in fact lose in the process) - to those who prefer to keep the war going at all costs.

It feels a bit as if the former (attempt to pivot) is the leading policy, since the hysteria regarding the offensive (which served to push Ukraine into the offensive and make it inevitable) was mostly generated by Western press, which is de facto an extension of the will of the government - and the Pentagon knows well that the offensive has little chance to succeed.

It appears that the premise behind the war (insofar as its not based on rabid Russophobia, and that's sometimes questionable) was that the only way to maintain US hegemony was to attempt to flip Russia as the weaker (not comprehensively so, but that's a different discussion) of the China-Russia axis. Indeed in this scenario, China would find itself deeply boxed in, regardless of it's economic clout. An all-in strategy, so to speak.

Since this has not panned out, and in fact has gone from bad to worse, with Russia sucking in the collective resources of NATO like a sponge, the second tier plan is to offload the war on the Europeans through various captive institutions (EU etc.). However, the economic suicide of a comprehensive rearmament in service of total war on Russia doesn't seem to be quite materializing, even if the Europeans are bending over backward to arm Ukraine at their own cost.

I guess in this NATO summit we will find just how deep the Europeans are willing to go, although if the counteroffensive blows up, I surmise it will be setting the stage for an Afghanistan like flight from the whole Ukrainian adventure.

Posted by: Plebs | Jun 12 2023 16:31 utc | 98

Our source in the OP said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to attack in columns, because of the minefields we do not have the opportunity to maneuver as in the Kharkiv region.

The saturation of the southern front reduces the entire counteroffensive to elements of a meat assault, which acquires the features of the Azov massacre for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when our military is forced to advance along a narrow road, which is well targeted by Russian artillery and aircraft.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2023 16:33 utc | 99

JustAMaverick @ 34

I would agree with b's conclusion if it wasn't for the fact that we are not dealing with rational actors. Washington is insane and has no reverse gear. They will not stop, they will not back down. They will escalate and since they don't have the conventional forces to win, their deranged minds will think the unthinkable.

I hope I am wrong, but I see no signs of even the slightest glimmer of rationality in their behavior.

RESPONSE: The USA military already knows where the current Ukrainian offensive is heading. After it is over, the depleted Ukrainian forces (AFU) will have to reteat out of Zaporizhhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk with what is left of their troops and equipment.

At that point the USA will seriously consider the unthinkable. Most likely the USA already has its plans for this scenario. Most likely Russia already has a copy of their plans. Both are starting to position their forces for the "unthinkable".

Posted by: young | Jun 12 2023 16:33 utc | 100