discussion reaching new heights

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 27 2023 9:12 utc | 204

That is how it is done. Not sure exactly what. All we know for sure is that Wagner will not be deployed to Belaus as per MoA comments.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 27 2023 9:36 utc | 206

Thomas @ 96
Aleks from Black Mountain Analysis just released a piece about the prospects for nuclear war.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/strategic-stability-and-prospects
RESPONSE: THanks for posting. Well worth the read!

Posted by: young | Jun 27 2023 9:50 utc | 208

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 27 2023 7:01 utc | 196
So I suspect that if any of his 4,000 fighters – if that’s how many there actually were in Russia – follow him to Belarus, it will just make it more likely that the whole lot will be returning to Africa or elsewhere.<<< ------- You're such a lying shit, Richard. Only a few posts ago, you pompously admonished everyone in MoA for "conjecture before events", but deigned to approve it "after events to make sense of what has happened". And yet in #196, as quoted, you "suspect" what might happen. Is that not conjecture? Conjecture is only guesswork -- before or after. FACTS, Richard. EVIDENCE, Richard. PHOTOS, Richard. That's what you demand from others before their words can have validity. What PROOF, Richard, do you have of what you suspect? And that you can deduce Prighozin and his remnant fighters will "likely" go to Africa or elsewhere is beyond retarded. Don't you see how Prighozin's reputation will now be trashed for good in the PMC industry. What self-respecting African democracy fighting colonial influence, or some vile dictator repressing his opposition, would ever hire his services again? Trustworthy? Not. Mercenary, treasonous, deluded? Yes. Belarus ... if he stays alive there ... is the only country in which he could make a patriotic military effort against Ukr, Poland, the West. I'd say he'll have trouble going ANYWHERE ever again because Uncle Luka will probably put an ankle bracelet on him, monitored by the FSB! I would suggest his life will only continue according to the largess of old mate Putin, even in Africa. After all, he could have easily arranged a sniper's bullet in his skull in Rostov. God you spout some rubbish. If I was a petty child, I would block you.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 27 2023 10:13 utc | 210

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 27 2023 10:14 utc | 214
Indeed. Russia, and Putin, truly are ‘agreement incapable’.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jun 27 2023 10:16 utc | 212

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 27 2023 10:14 utc | 214
or end this maskorivka with some novichok with the droogs

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 27 2023 10:25 utc | 214

… And with regards to Shoigu, he’s the most publicly quiet one. To me, that means he may be the most dangerous.
I never forget for even a moment, that the Russians are masters at Chess, land warfare, and philosophy.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 27 2023 0:37 utc | 153
I don’t know how you can even pretend that that sort of stuff is supportive of Russia’s position.
One of the characteristics of seniority is the at least implied assumption of being competent to handle the commensurate risk level. Junior people are entrusted with smaller and smaller portions of risk, senior the converse.
The appalling loss of Kakhovka Dam, both the mere fact of its loss and the apparently negligent manner of its loss, are incompatible with continued service of those responsible. In addition, there is no conceivable maskirovka argument, which doubtless explains why the matter has attracted no wishful thinkers.
Arguments along the lines of “getting it right next time” are a nirvana for pretence and mediocrity at any level of responsibility but completely inappropriate in senior command.
Whatever the merits of Shoigu, Gerasimov and other MoD figures, they simply hadn’t the wit to understand and anticipated the threat to Kakhovka Dam or to act on their own initiative beyond largely formalised scenarios.
If the loss of Kakhovka Dam wasn’t enough to motivate a polite reshuffle, perhaps nothing will be.
Had its defense been entrusted to Wagner from the outset, I wonder if Kakhovka Dam would still be standing?

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 27 2023 10:32 utc | 216

The G7 is looking for detente with China and are throwing in all their diplomatic heft to woo Global South Leaders to jointly push for the start of negotiations and a ceasefire over the Ukraine before Russia goes in the offensive again.
They know too well that they need another ten years because that 4th Reich/EU would just crumble if it had to go into the exchange with Russia today.
Come summer, with no extension to grain deal, wheat prices spiralling and Macron sweeting his requests for BRICS participation more and more, it is becoming hard for me to imagine Rhamposa, Lula and Modi will not lean towards a West that is opening up to concessions for Global South Elites(!) as a price to isolate Russia.
It is a bargain:
1.Global South leaders are playing China and Russia against the West and will eventually want to cash in on this gamble (preferably still in USD). They mostly also tend to side with the West wrt the territorial aspects of the war/SMO (just think about how and when most GS countries statehoods and borders came about, applying Putinˋs arguments – with all their merits regarding the Ukraine – and applying them to GS countries may jeopardise the legitimacy of many of their current governments). Maybe it is not farsighted (neither back into history nor into the future with a West emboldend by its recent victory over Russia going after its plebs and GS alike…) but can one blame them for that?
2. western leaders again, willing to pay the price of (temporary) concessions twds GS elites in order to live and fight another day. Until then (10 yrs) NATO and especially the EU will:
– Split the GS/PRC/RF unity by establishing firm NATO outposts, I.e. contractually and economically bound governments in GS
– ironing out internal fractions by bringing fundamental dissent from today‘s 30–50% of populus down to a sustainable 15% by means of ideology and repression all in the direction of preparation of a major clash with Russia
– become economically self–sustainable in order to endure 2–3 years of total secession from PRC/RF (minerals, intermediate products) in a war mode economy
– get military systems, production capacities , doctrines and organisations on par with Russia (many detailed lessons learned from this war)
My conclusion: if VVP misses this historical chance to forestall another major clash by crushing NATO over Ukraine today, Russia will have to fight again under arguably much worse external conditions in ten years. If VVP misses this(!) chance, he will not go down in the history books as the saviour of Russia, the preventer of WW3 and harbinger of the revival of Global South peoples but quite the opposite.
Why do I think this?
The financialized iteration of Western rule will not exit the stage of world history by quietly making place for PRC/RF/GS, let alone their own plebs in the west. If given the chance, they will use all their huge legacy resources and divide et impera politics of concessions here and there to crash the aspirations of PRC and RF in order to safeguard another century of their rule for them and their parasitic offspring. To think Wall Street, City of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Berlin, Tokyo, Hollywood, Washington, Brussels, Silicon Valley will cede their dominance without putting up a fight is delusional beyond repair.
So, I still hope for a decisive (!) defeat of NATO in Ukraine, plunging Western societies into deeper multiple crises and devision, completely and conclusively de–legitimising Western elites in the eyes of the western plebs and what is left of intellectual honesty there.
Only this may open up the way for internal reform (which is actually a revolution) in the west itself that may safe us all from decades if not centuries of ever deeper misery and enslavement.

Posted by: Arminius | Jun 27 2023 10:37 utc | 218

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 27 2023 10:28 utc | 218
Hey don’t knock the girl scouts of the CIA. Thanks to their courageous work Biden and many other politicians will back any stupid plan the state department come up with to serve the oligarchy.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 27 2023 10:50 utc | 220

Posted by: Arminius | Jun 27 2023 10:37 utc | 222
Provacatuve thoughts on NATOs grand strategy to bring Africa and South America back on board.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 27 2023 10:54 utc | 222

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 27 2023 8:23 utc | 200
According to Thomas Roeper quoting Der Spiegel Poland has contracted F-35s at $144 million a pop and Germany at $258 million a pop whereas UK was supposedly buying at $140 million a pop……….
How much baksheesh do the Germans require ? It is known the Procurement System in Germany is thoroughly corrupt – but this is getting blatant even hy Germany’s lax standards of accountability

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 27 2023 10:59 utc | 224

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 27 2023 10:59 utc | 228
According to Thomas Roeper quoting Der Spiegel Poland has contracted F-35s at $144 million a pop and Germany at $258 million a pop whereas UK was supposedly buying at $140 million a pop……….
How much baksheesh do the Germans require ? It is known the Procurement System in Germany is thoroughly corrupt – but this is getting blatant even hy Germany’s lax standards of accountability
—
The price difference is part of the corrupt scheme to get taxpayer money legally out of the system into the MID. Americans would know all about it with $35 per soda can from Halliburton.
In Germany there is a control instance called the Bundesrechnungshof. It will report these things together with many others. Year after year these reports come out, quite prominently too. But consequences are very rare.

Posted by: Ruediger | Jun 27 2023 11:14 utc | 226

As usual, Morgan Housel is just rephrasing what psychologists long ago figured out, but the rephrasing is well worth reading (and relevant to this Ukraine war for obvious reasons):
https://collabfund.com/blog/why-you-believe-the-things-you-do/

Posted by: Revelo | Jun 27 2023 11:32 utc | 228

So, I still hope for a decisive (!) defeat of NATO in Ukraine, plunging Western societies into deeper multiple crises and devision, completely and conclusively de–legitimising Western elites in the eyes of the western plebs and what is left of intellectual honesty there.
Posted by: Arminius | Jun 27 2023 10:37 utc | 222
NATO has given the Ukrainians a lot of weapons and some training. It understands that Russia is the much larger country and that it has more resources and manpower than Ukraine. So if Russia does manage to achieve a decisive victory (which appears to be well beyond its capabilities, by the by) Western elites will not be delegitimated, and Western societies will not be any more divided than they are now (which is plenty).
Sorry.
Given the limited amount of resources it is putting into the war, it’s difficult to believe that Russia views the conflict as existential, and Western countries certainly don’t.

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 27 2023 11:36 utc | 230

Today, the FSB, stopped the criminal case “on the fact of an attempted armed rebellion.” The statement says that its participants “stopped actions aimed at committing a crime.”
——-
The question is what about treason, which is unpardonable?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 27 2023 11:41 utc | 232

Director of the National Guard Viktor Zolotov said that Western countries knew in advance about the preparation of an armed rebellion in Russia and took part in its preparation.
“Of course, the rebellion was prepared, inspired by the secret services of the West, because they knew a few weeks before it started,” he said.
Zolotov also added that there were “information stuffings” coming from “Prigozhin’s camp, <...> narrowly focused on the fact that this rebellion is being prepared, and that it will take place from the 22nd to the 25th, which actually happened.” “All this suggests that all this was inspired by the West, and apparently Prigozhin himself was incited to this, or maybe his ambitions were overwhelmed, so to speak, he wanted to rise even higher,” said the director of the National Guard.
In addition, Zolotov noted the good work of the speechwriters of the Prigozhin team, as well as the work of the leader of the Wagner PMC himself. “Very competently, very clearly, everything was organized there, and I do not rule out that the work of the secret services of the West was there,” he summed up.
“The entire personnel fought to the death. All the personnel of the Russian Guard, the entire power unit worked perfectly – clearly, smoothly and competently. They interacted primarily with the bodies of the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Situations. There was a well-coordinated and clear work,” he told reporters.
Zolotov stressed that the country would not be led by the rebels. “When preparations began to repel the arrival of these rebels, everything was already clear. Moreover, the guys handed over all the stash to their wives, which they later regretted,” added the director of the National Guard. When asked by a journalist whether he himself gave the stash, Zolotov replied: “Yes.”
The director of the National Guard said that during the events of the past weekend, there were two sons next to him who are employees of the department, as well as a 23-year-old grandson. “My children and grandson were preparing, they were with me, and my wife was at home,” he said, emphasizing that “no fire was opened, there were no losses on both sides.”
TASS

Posted by: Peale | Jun 27 2023 11:44 utc | 234

FP – Congress Presses Biden to Deliver Cluster Munitions to Ukraine.
Posted by: rk | Jun 27 2023 11:44 utc | 237

Posted by: ostro | Jun 27 2023 11:50 utc | 236

Posted by: Jupiter | Jun 27 2023 11:50 utc | 239
not as bad as the US then. look at how the government treated the Jan 6 people, while using them for the ends you attribute to Putin.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 27 2023 11:59 utc | 238

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 27 2023 11:36 utc | 234
your talking points are changing, now you’re admitting the possibility Russia will achieve a decisive victory. baby steps. i wonder what Baghad Bob is doing these days. maybe he learned to code. you could too!

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 27 2023 12:04 utc | 240

reply to 222
I think you accurately gauge the intent of the West but the follow through leans into delusions. They need to be authoritarian war economies for years to come to equal what Russia/China are doing. The Global South loves to play one side against the other, especially India. The US/EU vassals are facing a huge economic mess of recession, inflation, debt and stagnation – that Russia in particular doesn’t have (and China may be able to overcome).
I would add that any decoupling from China is going to run into a brick wall of lack of skilled factory workers in the US.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 27 2023 12:21 utc | 242

One more:
7) sometime at beginning of his Presidency, Biden mentioned using F-15s and possibly Nukes against dissenters – “we got F-15s, we got Nukes”

Posted by: Exile | Jun 27 2023 12:27 utc | 244

Just listened to a very interesting podcast (https://www.corbettreport.com/interview-1813-wtf-just-happened-in-russia-with-rolo-slavskiy/) of James Corbett talking to “Rolo Slavskiy” https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/ who claims to be a Ukrainian born blogger, educated in the US and now living in Russia – a pro Russian who is very critical of the ossified Kremlin, and in particular of Shoigu. His understanding of how the SMO began, it’s initial aim, how it then progressed and changed makes a lot of sense to me.
He says he is the only one blogging in English that uses his fluent Russian abilities to give a first hand opinion of what is going on from him being on the ground. He was blogging about the Prigozhin v Shoigu ‘spat’ months ago and has taken the Duran guys to task for basically saying Prigozhin wasn’t saying anything of interest.

Posted by: NotEinstein | Jun 27 2023 12:39 utc | 246

qui qui bono
war
food
oil
black soil
gm
war machine industry
https://www.google.com/search?q=crown+family+general+dynamics+crash
jim crown dies in car crash
((James Crown, mainstay of the Chicago Jewish community, dies in car crash on 70th birthday
Part of the prominent Crown family, which has long donated to Jewish and other causes, Jim was eulogized by President Biden, Chicago’s mayor, head of the Chicago federation))
“Crown, who served as a board member at both JP Morgan and General Dynamics, was killed when his car careened into an impact barrier at Aspen Motorsports Park in Woody Creek, the Colorado Sun reported, citing the local coroner.
“((member of Mega Group with the Bronfmans and Les Wexner.
He owned half of Chicago, and 23% of General Dynamics which makes half the weapons we’re sending to Ukraine.
His grandfather was a Chicago mafia don who basically helped run the JFK assassination, and he put how own personal lawyer on the Warren Commission to write the report and dismiss the possibility of conspiracy to kill JFK.
It goes on and on. The Crown family runs the Aspen Institute, which is where 9/11 was planned, and where all those wars afterwards were planned, which all made General Dynamics/Crown family a fortune.
Aspen Institute even has a headquarters in Kyiv, and a lot of the weapons Zelensky has asked for are General Dynamics weapons. F-16, Abrams tanks, Stryker IFV, etc. ))”
His father, Lester Crown, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and the chairman of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He is also a lifetime trustee at the Aspen Institute, a major globalist organization.
“Monica Crowley
Lester Crown
William Croxton”
https://www.cfr.org/membership/roster
“The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations is expected Tuesday to announce a new chairman: billionaire businessman Lester Crown.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2004-04-06-0404060314-story.html
“A native Chicagoan, Mr. Crown is chairman of Henry Crown and Company. He is also chairman of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and past chairman of the Civic Committee of The Commercial Club of Chicago.”
https://www.csis.org/people/lester-crown
“He also serves as a life trustee of Northwestern University and The Aspen Institute, a member of the Board of Overseers of the Henry Crown Fellowship Program of The Aspen Institute and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.”
https://www.csis.org/people/lester-crown
Also the grandfather, Henry Crown (real name Krinsky) owned a big chunk of Hilton Hotels, and they had a big hotel/casino down there in Havana. So JFK not murdering Castro hurt the Crown family’s interests down there, just like with Meyer Lansky (as depicted in Godfather II).
“As Obama moved closer to running, he paid a visit to James Crown and his father, Lester, billionaire investors who presided over a sprawling Chicago business dynasty and prominent leaders in the Jewish community.
As the meeting ended, the younger Crown said, his father — who is “fairly hawkish” about Israel’s security — was noncommittal about Obama. But, James Crown said, “I pulled him down to my office, and I said, ‘Hey, look, I think you should run, and I want you to win.’ ”
In courting families like the Crowns, Obama was gaining entree into the upper echelon of the city’s corporate boardrooms, a ripe source of campaign money. But he was also seeking to broaden his appeal to Jewish voters,…
http://www.iht.com/…
…Crown, for his part, could not be more pleased. Since Obama was elected to the Senate Crown said that even his father had been won over, helping to arrange meetings for Obama in a visit to Israel. James Crown said he had “never had even the slightest glimmer of concern that Barack wasn’t terrific” on Israel — a view that Obama jokingly reinforced at a meeting last year in Crown’s office…..”
He controls [correction: CONTROLLED ((he’s dead, jim.))] family holdings, including large stakes in Maytag, Hilton Hotels, Alltel, Aspen Skiing Company, New York’s Rockefeller Center, and pro basketball’s Chicago Bulls. He also holds a 13% stake in the New York Yankees, an increase from 10% when he was an original limited partner with George Steinbrenner’s investment group in 1973.[2] Presumably, the large stake held in Bank One at the time of the 2003 Forbes 400 listing has converted to JPMorgan Chase stock and was derived from an interest in First Chicago Bank, which was enumerated in the 1998 Forbes 400 list as First Chicago NBD shares.
More on Krinsky aka Crown:
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2023/04/investigative-series/crowning-the-king-of-wall-street/

Posted by: charles drake | Jun 27 2023 12:56 utc | 248

There are reports that AFU launched a Nato missile into their own controlled Kramatorsk city. What is exactly going on is unclear. Though last year there was a report of a failing HARM Agm-88 falling onto a school building on AFU controlled territory, also.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 27 2023 13:17 utc | 250

Posted by: Anaseed | Jun 27 2023 13:18 utc | 255
A lot of people say RU should be at the Polish border by now. It’s not that simple.
Consider that even if RU advances to Polish border, Warsaw, Berlin or even Brussels, they would have to fight the same enemy in any case. They would just have to fight them on hostile territory with more logistical strain.
They will probably bypass south of Kiev and cross Dnepr once the west’s ukronazi force runs out, or at least is void of experienced troops, and left with only with weak armaments.
It’s possible, though, that there will never be an official or negotiated ending to the Ukraine saga. And no one will ever admit defeat on this saga, because neither side will never back down from it. Per Stoltenberg, Nato arsenals are devastated, which leads to much worse war prospects for Nato side.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 27 2023 13:24 utc | 252

Yesterday afternoon, RAF 135 AWACS was followed by two Eurofighters to the very edge of RF’s airspace, trampling over NOTAM as it is not there.
Two SU-27 intercepted and filmed this provocative entourage some 20 km away of RF sea border of 12 Nm, after NATO ISR and escort turned away and abandoned mission, Eurofighters planes flying back to Izmir base, RAF/NATO ISR plane flew back to the UK.
NATO was few centimetres and minutes close to have all the assets taken down.
Now there are about 4 ISR assets along the borders of Belorussia near , over the Black Sea and Polish-Ukrainian border. Also, two stratotankers are circling in the area. Military planes fly with transponders off, but they are in the area.
The Black Sea is pretty empty ship-wise, only a few oil tankers and some Turkish drilling ships. Military ships also go without AIS on.
If anything escalates, it will be over the NOTAM and I guess RF will not be just filming NATO intrusion from now on.
I have a feeling that deliberately sending planes deep into NOTAM will not be countered by writing the protest notes, but ruthless take-downs.
I think we can all agree that omnipotent Article 5 is a non-existent threat. Nobody cares.
Many people look what is happening along the frontlines, while I render this as not the first priority.
From a strategic point, and while all eyes are on Prygozhin, counter-offensive, Kharkov and Kiev, what is really required to upkeep the RF’s initiative, is taking the whole Odesa Raion.
That area seems to be under considerable pressure from RF, and it is going on for some weeks now. Under the radar, of course.
RF can only make NATO capitulate in its ambitions if RF takes the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast. How is that doable, we had discussion here by highly respected Karloff1 and others that chipped in. What RF will do and how is not known.
RF appearing on Romanian-Ukraine border is the only thing that matters in this timeframe. Everything else is secondary.
But, that of course is my “non-expert” opinion.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 27 2023 13:43 utc | 254

The west is uncertain what to think. Air defender and defender Europe show both insufficiency wrt to shielding all NATO assets in the hinterland.
Is Western European population ready to rally behind the flag? and what flag fir that matter? nation?, EU? or rainbow flag in case of a Russian counter strike after open NATO entry into the Ukraine again after some kind of incident (Gleiwitz, Pearl Harbor, Tonkin, Racak, WMD,…) remains undecided until the moment it happens.
Systems, Capacities, leadership, doctrine, manpower, ideology, economy, international alliances/diplomacy on all measures in all dimensions on all levels NATO is outmatched at this point.
That is no better point in time for the inevitable. Oh yeah and Russia is weak, confused and devided. So let us bring this on! A little Blitz and we are going to have a President Navalny.
Neither of the antagonistic systems will implode or drop off on its own, neither will be revolutionised bar Russian 5th columnists taking over again and the west looting and polluting the country again at will, only to then turning violently at its own people, GS and PRC.
Kicking this can down the road would only come at huge costs to mankind,

Posted by: Arminius | Jun 27 2023 13:51 utc | 256

I don’t have talking points, and I don’t know what’s going to happen, except that this war will continue to be stupid, murderous cluster****, and barflies will continue to try to assemble a grand cohesive narrative out of it.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 27 2023 13:50 utc | 259
Ok, and what to you think are the respective strategic political motives for both parties, NATO and RF to this war?
Please don’t come with abstract humanitarian reasons, they belong into the sphere of propaganda. I want to hear real substantial state interests for both (!) sides on which you base your judgement/evaluation of this war.

Posted by: Arminius | Jun 27 2023 13:59 utc | 258

‘Putin is increasingly losing touch with reality’ says Jade McGlynn (UK Spectator) – surely she means the psychotic Zelenski! Who is Dr Jade McGlynn? Aha! In her early ’30s, she is an expert Russian analyst.

Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Jun 27 2023 14:02 utc | 260

unimperator | Jun 27 2023 13:17 utc | 254
nato weapons/munitions, bought to keep the military industry complex paying dividends, are unpredictable in the hands of amateurs and unreliable shooters.

Posted by: paddy | Jun 27 2023 14:15 utc | 262

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 27 2023 13:43 utc | 258 “I have a feeling that deliberately sending planes deep into NOTAM will not be countered by writing the protest notes, but ruthless take-downs”
What the big deal about the NOTAM? If Rominia issued a NOTAM over the Black Sea would Russia respect it? These things are mostly meaningless for military aircraft.

Posted by: Tim2 | Jun 27 2023 14:26 utc | 264

An opinion from a pro-Ukraine source that people may find interesting, or may find to be utter rubbish.
Maybe the most unexpected development since 24 Feb 2022 has been that it has been European states that are driving the course of aid to Ukraine. Be it MBTs, Longer range missiles and now F-16s, its been Europeans pushing and the US (sometimes reluctantly) forced to pay catch up.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1673386761978781705

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 27 2023 14:27 utc | 266

‼️🇷🇺 For those who were waiting for Putin’s assessment of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, there was an announcement of future changes:
‼️”Those who participate in the SMO should form the backbone of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense” – Putin
Looks like an announcement of the future rise of some SMO generals.

Posted by: Milos | Jun 27 2023 14:30 utc | 268

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4068920-a-russia-ukraine-endgame-inches-closer/
Here we go, mainstream commentary, that I think reflects emerging Western thought about how the war ends. Given that Putin is able to compromise ( as recently demonstrated – and I don’t blame him) – this may outline what happens.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 27 2023 15:03 utc | 270

Joe Biden is a criminal, and anyone with a brain knows that. Our country has been completely taken over by organized crime.
– Trump

Posted by: ostro | Jun 27 2023 15:23 utc | 272

Today, Putin has made two short addresses that I’m going to post in full. First was this speech to “the units of the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSO, which ensured order and legality during the rebellion”:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Comrades,
Today, here, on the historic Cathedral Square of the Moscow Kremlin, servicemen of the Armed Forces Forces of Russia, employees of the National Guard, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSO – soldiers and officers, real defenders of the Fatherland, who in a difficult hour for the country together with the fighting comrades stood in the way of turmoil, the result of which would inevitably be chaos.
You’ve defended The constitutional order, life, security and freedom of our citizens have been preserved our Motherland from upheavals, in fact, stopped the civil war.
In a difficult situation, you acted clearly, harmoniously, and proved their loyalty to the people of Russia and the military oath, showed responsibility for the fate of the Motherland and its future.
Parts of the Ministry of Defense, National Guardsmen, employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and special services ensured reliable work the most important control centers, strategic, including defense, facilities, the security of the border regions, the strength of the rear of our Armed Forces, all combat formations that continued at that time to heroically fight at the front. We did not have to remove combat units from the NWO zone.
In the confrontation with the rebels, our comrades-in-arms, the pilots, were killed. They did not flinch and with honor They fulfilled the order and their military duty. I ask you to honor their memory with a minute Silence.
(Minute silence.)
Comrades,
Your determination and courage, as well as the consolidation of the entire Russian society, played a role A huge, decisive role in stabilizing the situation. The people who were dragged into the rebellion saw that the army, the people were not with them.
Fast & Clear The deployment of units of law enforcement agencies made it possible to stop an extremely dangerous development of the situation in the country, to prevent civilian casualties.
Thank you, all personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services for service, for courage and valor, for loyalty to the people of Russia.
(The anthem of Russia sounds.)
Good luck. Thank you. [My Emphasis]

Putin’s second address was given at a “Meeting with servicemen of the Ministry of Defense”:

Vladimir Putin: Dear comrades,
You probably noticed it, or maybe you heard it from here: I just met with military personnel of the Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardiya, Special Services, FSB, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the Kremlin’s Sobornaya Square and thanked them for their preparation to repel an armed rebellion.
But a special role in this, of course, was played by you – you and your comrades. And special thanks to you for that.
I want us all to understand what happened and what would have happened if you hadn’t done what you did, and hadn’t fulfilled your military duty and shown loyalty to the oath and the Russian, Russian people.
As always happens in such cases-always and everywhere the same thing happens: after armed riots, complete chaos and civil war ensues. Here’s what you prevented. That was your role. And for this, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, I want to express my gratitude to you. I want to make it clear and clear what was discussed and what I am talking about now.
Unfortunately, you had to work in very difficult conditions in order to avoid civilian casualties, because you had to work on busy roads.
And it is even more regrettable that we have suffered losses. These are, of course, combat losses – there is no other way to say it. Our comrades died defending the Fatherland. I say this without any pathos and without any exaggeration. I want to emphasize once again: chaos in the country would have been inevitable, and the enemy, of course, would have taken advantage of this.
He’s already trying to do it – I’ll tell you about it later-but it’s not working, and I hope it won’t work, I’m even sure of it. But definitely absolutely-they would have used it. It is not known what would have happened to the country in the end, but all the achievements that were achieved during the fighting, many of them at least, would have been lost. And you didn’t let that happen.
Without any doubt, I have already told the [Defense] Minister that everything will be done to support the families of our fallen comrades.
As for this Wagner group. You know: we have always treated the fighters and commanders of this group with great respect, because, indeed, they showed courage and heroism. Our soldiers and officers of the Russian Army, volunteers worked in combat conditions with no less dedication, and also showed heroism and self-sacrifice. But even those who served and worked in this company – Wagner-were respected in the country.
Meanwhile, I would like to point out, and I want all of us to know, that the entire Wagner group was fully supported by the state – from the Ministry of Defense, from the state budget, we fully funded this group.
Only from May 2022 to May 2023, the state paid Wagner 86 billion 262 million rubles for monetary maintenance and incentive payments. Of these, monetary support – 70 billion 384 million, incentive payments-15 billion 877 million. Insurance payments – 110 billion 179 million.
At the same time, the owner, the Concord company-despite the fact that the very maintenance of Wagner was on the shoulders of the state – during the year, the owner, the Concord company, through Voentorg received, earned from the state, supplying food and providing nutrition services to the army, 80 billion rubles. The state took over the entire maintenance, and part of this entire group, this Concord company, at the same time earned 80 billion rubles. But I hope that in the course of this work, no one stole anything or, let’s just say, stole less, but, of course, we will, of course, deal with this with everything.
When I spoke about combat work, I also wanted to say the following. There are combat pilots here who have done a lot to ensure that this combat work goes on at the proper level.
They just gave me updated information: since June 4, that is, since the start of the so-called counteroffensive, the enemy has lost 259 tanks, 780 armored vehicles, and only in the Orekhovsky direction, which the enemy considers the main direction of attack, and only in the last seven days the enemy has lost 280 pieces of equipment, including 41 tanks and armored vehicles – 102.
This is largely the result of your work and the work of your comrades-in-arms. And for this, of course, also separate words of gratitude.
Of course, I have already instructed the Minister of Defense, and the merits of all those who took part in this part of the combat work will be appreciated by the state. I mean state awards.
I have already told the Minister, and I want to repeat it once again: those who show themselves properly in combat work should form the backbone of the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the near future and in the future, including, of course, in the aviation sector.
I would like to finish here. I would like to thank you once again for what you have done for Russia, for the country and for our people.
Thank you. [My Emphasis]

It should be obvious why I applied the emphasis. I ask this question: Is Putin lying to the nation about those killed in this revolt? S has said he isn’t. But as I write last night regarding Larry Johnson’s latest article, the lack of such evidence is very odd. I prefer to take Putin’s word until it’s disproven, but that doesn’t negate Johnson’s hypothesis.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 15:28 utc | 274

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 15:28 utc | 279
Is Putin lying to the nation about those killed in this revolt? S has said he isn’t.
If so that would be a very dangerous exercise given that actual deaths would be almost impossible to cover up.
Putin has never played fast and loose with the truth in his 2+ decades of rule.
I don’t believe this is simply because he is an honest man but because in his position any lie can be turned by his enemies into a weapon that could end him at any time.
He tends to either:
– make technically factual statements, or
– statements that are plausibly deniable or
– complete omissions
But never direct lies.
Interesting mental exercise:
Try to identify at least 3 direct lies Putin has communicated to the Russian public since 2000.
(The one where he promised not to attack Ukraine doesn’t count, since he wasn’t actually lying)

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 27 2023 15:40 utc | 276

karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 15:28 utc | 279

>”those killed in this revolt
>…”the lack of such evidence is very odd.
Errr. “Evidence” does exist.
Both S and myself have posted links to vid and images.
These “failed” to meet someone’s exacting standards of provenance and verification.
Understandable, perhaps, given the info war and previous fakes and “recycling” re-splicing of vid and images.
As I wasn’t at the bar during The Excitement, but lurking twitter and telegram, I saw the vid get posted “as it happened”, so I held the view it was authentic.
I couldn’t *prove* this, so….. after COVID-19, vax and sloSMO…. I now never disturb people’s need to “believe” anything and everything they chose to “believe”.
If people wanted *vehemently* to believe no helicopters were taken down, no Wagner vehicles were destroyed…. that’s their belief…. And I leave them to it.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 27 2023 15:50 utc | 278

Paul Damascene | Jun 27 2023 14:41 utc | 274–
Thanks for your reply. IMO as things stand currently, Russia will want to break NATO. Denmark says it’s now training Ukie pilots in F-16s. IMO, Russia will welcome their sacrifice as Putin said they too will “burn.” We saw yesterday more aggressive confrontation over the Black Sea between Russian and UK jets where the latter turned tail. IMO, Russia will continue that and push its No Fly Zone further away from Crimea. As for deployment of Russian AWACs, I’d expect them to be in the air 24/7 now as their look-down ability will help spot Storm Shadow cruise missiles and other types so AD can shoot them down. Same with Ukie troop deployments and support for Russian offensive actions.
One thing the revolt showed and Putin acknowledged, Russia has very long borders and numerous strategic areas to defend, which is very hard to do given the size of Russia’s military. And such garrison troops must be seasoned (combat proven) since the opportunity for that sort of “training” exists as they make far stronger units and can’t be considered second or third line troops as they might normally.
As for direct confrontation between Russia and the Outlaw US Empire, in a sense there’s already been that via tactical planning, ISR, equipment, training, weapons manning (Patriot batteries), and front line “advisors” under cover as mercs. All of those confrontations have shown Russian superiority as Martyanov’s been crowing about. IMO, the Empire will sacrifice other Europeans before it directly confronts Russia. As for negotiations, I stand by my conclusion to Crooke’s essay and agree with your suggestion that they will be about Russia’s December 2021 proposals but modified to fit whatever reality exists when such talks begin. Ideally, I’d like to see the USA conform to China’s Global Security Initiative; but for that to happen, deep political change will need to occur forcing the Empire to retreat to its status as USA.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 15:55 utc | 280

Is Putin lying to the nation
karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 15:28 utc | 279
Why so black and white? There may have been some losses, it’s very probable some helicopters were at least monitoring if not attacking a part of the strange Wagners. But that doesn’t imply the losses were like TG channels said or that Russia can’t find ways to use the Prigo thing to their advantage. They will at least know every important person who tried to run from Moscow. Putin’s support will go from already high to rockstar levels.

Posted by: rk | Jun 27 2023 15:58 utc | 282

Melaleuca | Jun 27 2023 15:50 utc | 283–
Thanks for your reply. Very well, evidence exists. I admit to not searching for it, and must have missed the relevant comments through all the crap and smoke being generated by the fleas.
Arch Bungle | Jun 27 2023 15:40 utc | 281–
Thanks for your reply. I 100% agree with your comment about Putin’s veracity and the huge problems any sort of prevarication would generate. I see b has published today’s article, so I’ll now read it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 27 2023 16:01 utc | 284

Posted by: Erelis | Jun 27 2023 15:55 utc | 286
Simplicius also pointed out the standard operation procedure of the Empire Of Lies. Namely, in this case, US has set up radiation detectors and they will simply fake any radiation data they need and blame on Russia. It’s simply enough Ukraine gets troops somewhere “near” the ZNPP (say, 5km) and they can do the data fake operation along with some sort of photo fake operation.
I’ve said before and say again, Nato is free to do any sort of false flag on Russia at any point in time they want. They also could have easily used the Ukraine S-300 dropped in Poland to use “article 5” but they were too chicken to do it. They used article 5 against Afghanistan (the only occasion it’s been used) but they are too chicken to use it on Russia because the Nato system of house of cards collapses kind of immediately.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 27 2023 16:04 utc | 286

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 27 2023 15:53 utc | 284
Yeah, perfect.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 27 2023 16:09 utc | 288

Jihad Julian twitter
“Wagner-Kanäle verbreiten dieses Foto eines angeblich abgeschossenen Mi-35 der Putin-Regime Luftwaffe.
Translated from German by
>…Wagner channels circulate this photo of an allegedly shot-down Mi-35 of the Putin regime’s Luftwaffe.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1672577040552263682

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 27 2023 16:18 utc | 290

So a new wonder weapon is being considered, trouble is DPICM was designed to maximise the effectiveness of NATO artillery, when facing a typical battalion or regimental sized attack. The munitions had a fail rate of anything up to 10-40% and the Soviets countered the bomblets with reactive armour roof mounts, or rubberised coatings to interfere with the fusing. Russian tactics have markedly changed since the Cold War and with smaller target foot prints, bomblets will become far less effective, especially as the previously mentioned passive defence systems have improved. Final point, Russian, and probably Ukraine, have already used cluster munitions without their use breaking the deadlock, quite how aged munitions are going to resurrect the corpse that is the Ukrainian offensive is anyones guess.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 27 2023 16:39 utc | 292

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jun 27 2023 16:17 utc | 294
Oh, my apologies for being soo dramatic.
One doesn’t send a plane to an enemy territory just like that, out of the blue for a few contract-visa ending diplomats.
Zakharova says what she is told to say.
A space to be watched, dramatic or not.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 27 2023 16:42 utc | 294

Karlof1 @279
After the very good Crooke interview on Napolitano, there was the Larry Johnson interview. I’ve gone back and forth on the psyop angle, and been moving away again from crediting the psyop hypothesis. After listening to Johnson, I find it at least plausible that Moscow was running Prigozhin as a double agent after learning (or being told by him) that Western intel had approached him.
At the very least I find myself at least half persuaded insofar as–in its absence–I find both the craziness of the non-response to Prigozhin’s antics & the pardoned Prigozhin’s exit to Belarus hard to reconcile with my basic sense of Moscow’s competence and steady nerve.
On the face of it, the Prigozhin double-agent gambit is a very bold (i.e., high-risk) venture on Moscow’s part to let this develop in war time. In the incident’s aftermath we can see some costs–working backwards from the lost pilots. Not everyone can be part of the script so there might well have been exchanges of fire at the lower levels–and this was always a risk that Moscow will have willingly incurred. Those lives will be on the planners’ conscience, but it is war time.
Did this operation work as well as hoped, and was this operation worth it? The staging–from the Wagner camp “missile strike” to the March on Moscow–was not as believable as it needed to be and thus not likely as effective as it might have been for smoking out fifth columnists. Certainly no one seems to have outed himself publicly. Though the operation may still have been successful at identifying traitors *prior to* the March for Justice.
Support demonstrated for Putin was impressive–though if one were fully confident of that support there would have been no need to stage a demonstration. It’s plausible that at least some influential fifth columnists were too clever or cautious to be caught up in this; though if Moscow has at least some evidence of treason within Russia it may give a new impetus to house-cleaning among the Atlanticists. Glazyev for Central Bank head would be a major tell (kidding).
It’s hard to know what other benefits Moscow derived–internationally, among the multipolar aspirants this will have given rise to doubts about how much to gamble on Russia’s success. So if the operation–that is letting it go forward to the “March”–is to be considered a success, it will have to outweigh this international turbulence. (If it was an op, I have to think Xi at least was informed beforehand.)
Let’s say it strengthened Putin’s hand (which seemed strong enough already, and might at least conceivably have come out of this weaker). How will this “consolidation” be played? Either Prigozhin’s rantings will be used to discredit the full-scale war advocates or indeed can be used to accelerate the tempo.
Certainly, as many have suggested, the Wagner operetta has made it less likely that Kiev/NATO cancels the Offensive and goes into a defensive shell. The op may also have put the “scorched earth” suicide option–e.g., poisoning the Dniepr watershed by damaging the ZNPP–back on the shelf for a while. A good thing, clearly. The March may also mean that the Vilnius summit produces more of the same feckless arming and training strategy–we’ve got Russia on the ropes–rather than an escalation to the Coalition of the Willing.
To my mind, that may make a continuation of the RF’s slow grind of NATO *more* likely. But there will be many voices in Russia saying that the kamikaze nation threat is too great and more must be done–if there is a good counter for this, that is. Not sure what “more” would mean in this case. A decapitation strike maybe, but that might be the very thing to get the survivors to blow the NPP near Odessa.
That said, it is also just possible that Moscow is moving towards a decision to make Washington pay directly–Lavrov & Putin’s statements about the US hiding behind its proxies do make one wonder. If that’s the case, we might expect the ‘investigations’ of the Wagner mutiny to reveal evidence of CIA/MI6 involvement and something like the decision to shoot down, say, an E3 surveillance aircraft running up to Russian airspace, as just happened yesterday. Or a publicly announced duel-at-noon punishment strike (like Iran’s after Soleimani assassination) on a US military or intelligence target.
I think more than any of the earlier provocations–which from a Cold War perspective may be seen as on a similar scale–evidence of Western involvement (senior Western approval) for the “March” may mean Russia and the US are at war.
Though in its failure the March may seem more ludicrous than dangerous, imagine how it might have looked (in the galaxy brains of the West) if:
1. The Offensive were even half as effective as promised–artillery distance from Melitopol, Tokmak
2. The ZNPP was under attack or even taken–as a permanent nuclear-meltdown gun to the temple of the Donbass.
3. A parallel Polish destabilization of Minsk were launched.
4. A Coalition of the Willing launches into West Ukraine and / or towards Odessa across Moldova.
5. The Air Defender 2023 exercise, on its final day, shifts into attack mode.
6. The Wagner revolt is real, far better executed, & Rostov is plunged into real combat.
7. The Atlanticist fifth column is emboldened, steps out of the shadows. Maybe an air base with nukes is seized.
Civil war. Existential threat to Russia’s existence, conditions for nuclear retaliation met.
In this context, Moscow may have decided it is at war and will not turn away from or may even initiate a kinetic engagement w/ US forces, ideally in a manner calculated to offer a last-chance wake-up call.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 27 2023 16:46 utc | 296

@ Ralph Conner 38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CMby_WPjk4&list=PLbkPPs8YO207tfAHwBoGoAXPixglb1NYZ&index=7&t=3163s
At exactly 1:00:07, Phillip Karber quotes Ukrainian General talking in 2014 about “meeting at the gates of Valhalla”. So the fact of Nazi and anti-Christian ideology being embedded into the Ukie army was already well knows to top American commanders,. And the Americans had no problem with this. That says a lot.
The lecture is informative – IF it’s true. Karber claims the Russian army used advanced systems and cross-border artillery support in the summer of 2014. I’ve long thought that did happen, but I can’t consider this guy as a reliable source. He also mentions in passing that the forces under Igor “Strelkov” were frightened and ran away from Slavyansk. Perhaps needlessly, but he didn’t say that. And of course he never mentioned the 1200 people massacred in reprisal when
the Ukie army took Slavyansk. We will be hearing more about that in a future war crimes tribunal.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Jun 27 2023 17:00 utc | 298

@karlof1
From your postings of Putin’s speeches today (yesterday?)/ [being in the “ahead” international dateline zone, I sometimes muddle days/dates] /
Putin said (I paraphrase) that the insurrection was a dangerous time, and enemies were poised ready to exploit the unrest. He intimates it could have quickly got out of control and chaotic.
He’s correct. (He’ll be so pleased I agree with him).
Myself and a couple of other barflies have been alert to Third Parties… the ones like snipers on The Maiden who shot and killed protesters and police, instigating the anger that allowed events to boil over to the coup.
In my study of crowd scenes in Rostov, I noticed a sizeable number of males, aged 20s loitering singularly, or in pairs, in the streets…. All wearing the same colour tee shirt (blue-gray) with a black over the shoulder strapped bag.
Completely innocuous. That’s what (fashionable) young men wear …..
But once I noticed not only the tee shirt and black bag combo, I noticed their behaviour in the crowd.
Such attired young men were always “in the thick” of incidents … like the two punch-ups that were posted, and the crowd angrily jeering the late-night return of Rostov police to their downtown station.
So, I’m sure assets were in place ready to do their color-rev “thing”, if the mood in Rostov had got tense, with street fights and property damage.
Re the Wagner v Russian army combat. Putin has to empathically acknowledge the deaths during the insurrection.
But also quickly have everyone “move on” … because once families start calling for Vengeance against Wagner… he can’t have that desire for revenge by some, grow into a chasm between the many loyal and hapless now ex-Wagners, and the Russian military.
The punditry in the west that “Putin showed weakness” is extreme delusion.
For 24 hours Putin walked the flimsiest of tightropes, with sublime finesse.
Over the decades, in more than 50 countries, situations like the Prigozhin insurrection have ignited into a full scale, nation-wide color rev within days.
Putin had the whole Wagner debacle resolved in under 24 hours; Russians who remember their chaotic last century, are deeply relived. His authority / leadership in Russia is enhanced, not diminished.
At a very fundamental level he once again saved Russia from itself. (And the Third Party demons waiting ever-ready to feast)
(Was prepping this while you posted… not gonna waste my precious pearls!)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 27 2023 17:04 utc | 300