Multipolarity is here. It can be lost. But, it’s here.
Nato — I won’t bother with “Natzo” because the word “Nato” has IMO become abhorrent enough — is losing its kinetic battles (Ukraine, Afghanistan, Syria), its word games (China ME peace initiatives), and its economies. Russia and China cannot be defeated until Nato develops or releases new Wunderwaffen.
Don’t look to NATO’s official metrics for guidance. DXY is a circle-jerk of devaluing Nato currencies. Their GDP’s are ridiculously exaggerated. No, look at the increasing numbers of poor, morbidly obese, senile upper staff, theft, looting, etc., especially in USA. The place is falling apart.
People better GTFO. And I don’t mean “go to another state”. When the ship goes down, it’s taking the upper decks with it. Get on a lifeboat now.

Posted by: naokraine | Jun 22 2023 10:06 utc | 203

“On the 22nd of June, at Exactly 4am”
Operation Barbarossa repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
RVvoenkor reports, via Zlatti71 on Twitter

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺June 22 at exactly 4 am, the AFU on the German “Leopards” went on the offensive near Orekhov on the Zaporozhye Front: the battles go on for many hours
▪️Ukrainian militants began to concentrate forces by night before an offensive in the Orekhovsky direction on the Novodanilovka-Rabotino line.
▪️NATO armored vehicles drove like a taxi, transferring infantry to the forward lines of attack, clashes began.
▪️At about 04:00, with the support of artillery, German Leopard tanks and other NATO armored vehicles, the enemy went on the offensive again.
▪️Our Orekhovo Spartans met them with fire, immediately destroying part of the military equipment, part was blown up by mines.
▪️Fights went on for many hours, several waves of attacks were repulsed, about a dozen pieces of equipment were destroyed: tanks, including Leopards and various NATO armored vehicles.
▪️Fighters of the 291st and 70th regiments, special forces, artillerymen and mobilized regiments from Moscow and the Moscow region again held all the lines.
▪️Now the battles have become less intense, the artillery is working, the embittered enemy is firing at the front and into the depths of our defense, the Russian artillery is conducting a counter-battery fight.
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling up reinforcements to bring them into battle and strengthen the offensive.

Operation Barbarossa was launched at 4 am on June 22, 1941. The German declaration of war on the Soviet Union was presented to Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov at 5:30 am Moscow time.
Some music for today.

“On the 22nd of June, at Exactly 4am” – Soviet Song About the German Invasion

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 22 2023 10:14 utc | 205

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 22 2023 9:35 utc | 205
Rafael Cruz should remember where his surname comes from even if he was born in Alberta !
I believe there are 62 million Hispanics inside US borders – although the border itself has withered away especially in TX and AZ………..
Attacks on Mexico serve AMLO very well across Central and South America and US playing the old United Fruit Company routine is destined for ignominious failure…….and possibly loss of TX, NM, or AZ ultimately…………
Always the same knee-jerk response

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 10:36 utc | 207

@ LightYearsFromHome, §213:
I think James O´Keefe´s exposure of BlackRock has set the ball rolling against MICIMATT.
The words of Serge Varlay have gone viral and exploded lots of heads.
it´s turning into a wrecking-ball against MICIMATT.

Posted by: John Marks | Jun 22 2023 10:40 utc | 209

Unfed 191
Don’t worry , once we learn the rules of American football, we’ll be be fine.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 22 2023 10:57 utc | 211

Well, Crimea is getting hit with Storm Shadows, in the abiding words of Prighozin – “Shoigu, where are you!”

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 11:05 utc | 213

“Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have found that Moscow is considering a “terrorist act” at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant using a release of radiation, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says. Russia denies the allegation.”
Why does he say such ludicrous things.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 22 2023 11:14 utc | 215

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 11:05 utc | 220
Targets in Crimea have been randomly hit for probably over a year now with drones and missiles. But maybe the British embassy in Kiev could have an oopsie-moment.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 11:18 utc | 217

US and U.K. have no particular logic flow now and are randomly trying to destabilise Russian presence wherever and whenever. It is the tactic of the terrorist.
Crimea is probably what they see from Odessa in their sights and what was wanted even when FDR tried it on with Stalin over Lend-Lease. There are good reasons for Turkey to want a limited presence of US, U.K., and France in Black Sea region.
Quite how Bulgaria and Romania will keep Black Sea tourism viable with Ukrainians in place of West Europeans will be evident in coming weeks

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 11:26 utc | 219

unimperator @ 224

Targets in Crimea have been randomly hit for probably over a year now with drones and missiles. But maybe the British embassy in Kiev could have an oopsie-moment.

Yes, and I still don’t believe the half-assed truck bomb story regarding the Kerch bridge, but I’m pretty sure Shoigu just specified the use of Storm Shadows as the umpteenth red line.
If they were to hit the Brit embassy they’d likely only kill a poor janitor or custodian. I’m sure the Brits are in their Kiev Cabinet War Room deep under Mount Doom.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 11:31 utc | 221

I am not sure what is a real RF strategy there. Not engaging those AWACS as in combat take down, is maybe a sign of a reluctance to double-down, to which I am not sure why and what is to fear from who.
There is a very clear NOTAM, but Global Hawks just fly at will, violating it.
Ok, a few months ago one has been taken offline and into the sea, but they just kept coming, claiming international right to fly there.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 11:34 utc | 229

Probably the consideration here is simple. A cost-benefit analysis allows some amount of ISR from the direction of the Black sea (more or less at least well over 100km at all times from Sevastopol, i.e. middle of the Black sea) in exchange for Nato not using their full force and starting WW3, making the victory of Nato/proxy AFU moot.
Nato ISR, in the context of a 3 times rebuilt AFU, now with low experience, low effectivity and coherency levels is close to meaningless, except for irritating strikes. The Su-24 or Mig-29 has the ability to launch Storm Shadow from several hundred kilometers away, at relatively low ground level.
Also this hit was the bridge, most likely not requiring external ISR. But there’s no denying: it is a very large nuisance.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 11:48 utc | 223

Meeting with permanent members of the Ru Security Council
Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council via videoconference.
The meeting was attended by Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Chief of Staff Anton Vaino, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin and Special Representative of the President for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport Sergei Ivanov.
Vladimir Putin: Colleagues, good afternoon!
Today we will discuss issues related to measures to improve the efficiency of work with our main partners – both in the CSTO and in the Eurasian Economic Community . A lot has happened lately. One way or another, almost all of us took part in meetings with our colleagues and allies and outlined certain things related to the development of our relations.
Today we’ll talk about all this.
But first of all, I would like to start with the issues on the current agenda – the most important ones today, with the situation in the zone of the special military operation.
Sergei Kuzhugetovich [Shoigu], how is the situation in the war zone?
Sergei Shoigu: Thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Our current situation is as follows. After conducting active hostilities for almost 16 days, having suffered significant losses, the enemy reduced its activity. At the moment, he is engaged in the regrouping and re-staffing of troops. Gathers from disparate parts of the battalions those forces that could continue to lead the offensive. It’s in one direction.
In other directions, of course, the enemy still has the strength to conduct further offensive operations, despite the large number of losses both in equipment and in personnel.
In addition, in some areas we are seeing attempts to evacuate destroyed equipment and wrecked equipment. Not everywhere it succeeds, but nevertheless such attempts are being made.
Of course, preparations are underway for further offensive actions. From our side as well.
Vladimir Putin: Okay, I understand. Thank you.
Nikolai Platonovich, I asked you to maintain relations with colleagues from various departments so that we can have an objective picture of what is happening, how it looks from the various departments involved in the special military operation. It is clear that the main responsibility lies with the Ministry of Defense, but nevertheless, information is accumulating in other departments. You are doing this work, I know.
What is the summary data so far?
Nikolay Patrushev: Thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Indeed, in accordance with your instruction, we are counting the equipment that the enemy has lost, and we receive information from the Ministry of Defense, from the Border Guard Service of the FSB, from the Department of Military Counterintelligence of the FSB, from the Russian Guard. Then we compare it, bring it to a common denominator. In particular, of course, since June 4, we have been looking more closely at this information, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that they had begun to attack.
To date, we have the following data. From June 4 to June 21, they destroyed: tanks – 246 units, including western ones – 13, armored combat vehicles and armored vehicles – 595 units, including infantry fighting vehicles – 152 units, of which 59 were western, armored combat vehicles – 443 units, guns field artillery and mortars – 279 units, of which 48 units are Western. Multiple launch rocket systems – 42 units, anti-aircraft missile systems – two units, tactical fighters – ten units, helicopters – four units, unmanned aerial vehicles – 264 units, automotive equipment – 424 units.
We continue to work in accordance with your instructions.
Thank you.
Vladimir Putin: And in terms of personnel?
Nikolai Patrushev: As for the personnel, I think that more scattered information is being received here, but I can say that it is more than 13,000.
Vladimir Putin: This is generalized data, right?
Nikolai Patrushev: Generalized data, yes. Already all the information that came from the departments: more than 13 thousand.
Vladimir Putin: I understand.
Sergey Kuzhugetovich, we know that they are going to supply the enemy with additional Western equipment. How does the Department of Defense assess threats in this regard?
Sergei Shoigu: Regarding the supplied and planned supply of military equipment. In total, if we talk about tanks, it is planned to deliver 250 tanks in 2023, including about 120 Leopards, 31 Abrams tanks and the remnants that they collect around the world, these are 95 T-72 tanks. Here are the delivery plans.
Combat armored vehicles. 983 units are planned for delivery this year, most of them are in the third and fourth quarters – 822 cars, of which 740 are Western-made cars.
That is, here we also see that in fact everything that was developed by the Soviet Union at one time and in the countries of the former socialist camp, this resource is practically exhausted, as well as the resource that Ukraine had.
Artillery systems caliber 155 millimeters. They are expected to be delivered in 2023 273 units. This is more than two times less than it was delivered before.
Taking into account the losses that Nikolai Platonovich has just announced, and what happened before, we now understand that the quantity that will be delivered in 2023 and has already been delivered will not significantly affect the course of hostilities. And if we add to this that the bulk of armored vehicles, armored combat vehicles are the past, and somewhere the generation before last, having, on the one hand, weak degrees of protection and not the efficiency that modern technology shows, we don’t see any or threats. Moreover, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are actively forming reserves both in terms of equipment and personnel.
On your instructions, I can report that as of today, this morning, if we talk about the formation of reserves under the contract, we have recruited 114,000 people – this is under a direct contract, plus 52,000 are volunteers. On the volunteers, I know that you have drawn our attention to getting people ready.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, first of all, I want to note their highest motivation: they, as volunteers, naturally, are eager to fight, but we cannot do this. Firstly, there is no such urgent need for this, and secondly, of course, they must undergo serious training, which, in fact, they are doing today at eight training grounds.
They are trained by 645 instructors. All of them, of course, with combat experience. Plus, graduates of our higher educational institutions, our academies, who also work with volunteers, have now been added to this. Today, for the most part, they can already be called not volunteers, but these are fully trained combat units.
In addition, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are forming reserves as part of the army corps, the army. Plus, five regiments in the 1st and 20th tank armies. Everything is going according to plan there: in fact, by the end of June we will complete the formation of a reserve army and in the near future we will complete the formation of an army corps. Five regiments are also formed by more than 60 percent. In this case, I’m talking about personnel and technology.
For presentation, Vladimir Vladimirovich, – I have listed the equipment that is supplied to the enemy, including Western countries – we have delivered 3786 units of equipment for the formation of these two armies and the army corps. This is only for the formation of an army, an army corps and five subgroups in the 1st and 20th armies.
On average, Vladimir Vladimirovich, to make a complete impression: 1,336 people enter the contract per day – on average, every day. In fact, we receive every essence of the regiment. Plus, Vladimir Vladimirovich, in terms of technology: on average, we receive 112 units every day. This applies to both modernized equipment and new equipment, so here we have gained serious momentum and we do not see any risks of disrupting the formation of the reserve.
Vladimir Putin: Good.
Sergei Kuzhugetovich, and of the equipment that has been destroyed since June 4, and which Nikolai Platonovich has just described as generalized data, in percentage terms, how much Western equipment? Approximately.
Sergei Shoigu: Destroyed?
Vladimir Putin: Yes, from the destroyed one.
Sergei Shoigu: Mr Putin, out of 246 tanks, 13 are Western vehicles. At the same time, Vladimir Vladimirovich, it should be noted that, if we talk about the equipment that was delivered, for tanks in particular: 81 Western-made tanks were delivered. Of the 81 Western tanks, 13 were destroyed.
Of the armored fighting vehicles, 59 Western models have been destroyed. To date, tentatively, a total of Western-made Bradley armored combat vehicles has been delivered – 109. Of the 109 Bradley vehicles, 18 have been destroyed. And in general, Western models – 59 Western-made armored combat vehicles [destroyed].
As far as field artillery and guns are concerned, here, of course, I just immediately consider that out of the 48 destroyed, about 30 percent are Western.
Vladimir Putin: I understand.
I understand that this is preliminary data, because everything on the battlefield cannot be seen to the end, but in general it is clear.
????: And you confirm these data on the losses of enemy personnel?
Sergei Shoigu: Yes, we confirm. Moreover, these data are mainly data taken from intercepts: reports from the commanders of Ukrainian units, who reported on sanitary and irretrievable losses.

Posted by: Citan | Jun 22 2023 11:52 utc | 225

@ LightYearsFromHome, §223:
Ha! Ha! Yes.
America´s equivalent of Francis Drake or the Corsairs . . . or the East India Company.

Posted by: John Marks | Jun 22 2023 12:21 utc | 227

LYFH 228
The Automobile Association, a famous historic British corporation, holding my bank details, helped itself to two annual subscriptions. I can’t just call them to sort it out. I, the victim, have to write them a letter of complaint.
Is Russia going to kowtow to British corporate arrogance over a missile hitting Crimea? The victim must take note that Corporations are criminal organisations operating outside
the law. Britain is a criminal kleptocracy and always has been.
The United Nations is just a corporate call centre.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 22 2023 12:33 utc | 229

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 22 2023 12:33 utc | 236
Well then it is as easy as it is
If you act outside the law – expect acts outside of the law 🙂

Posted by: Macpott | Jun 22 2023 12:40 utc | 231

Can anybody provide some context regarding the video posted by zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 20:19 utc | 77 ? Thanks.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Jun 22 2023 12:50 utc | 233

[236]
Sorry to hear about your difficulty, but perhaps you should contact the owners of the organisation you donate so generously to…….. ? It is as “British” as Cadbury or Bentley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TowerBrook_Capital_Partners
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warburg_Pincus
TowerBrook spun out of Soros Fund Management in 2005

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 13:07 utc | 235

@ unimperator | Jun 22 2023 11:48 utc | 230
@ Exile | Jun 22 2023 11:50 utc | 231
Yes, I can understand both positions as they do not differ very much from mine, but still I think that preventive aggressive denial is needed rather sooner than later.
From the point above the Black Sea where Global Hawk is flying, at the height around 17 km with its opto-electrical sensorics a clear reach is well over 400 km. That covers the entire Crimea, and a good portion of southern frontline, all the way to Kharkovsky Dam and a reservoir borders.
By having Poseidon over the Romanian coast, Artemis along the Polish Ukrainian border and a sat link, ISR interchange covers the diameter of around 800 km effective observable field. From there it is rather easy to triangulate signals and a protective radar coverage.
For RF, it is important to prevent that, and I doubt that after tracking those for a year, RF requires even more data and signals.
They know what are those, where they are going and how.
What more can one obtain from letting those assets live in the sky?
Not much. Those are sometimes under EW, and usually they evade RF’s EW by moving further south. I doubt that all those are EW-ed, or effected so that mission is lost. Just sometimes EW works well.
So lots of collected data, targeting, and a troop and units movement is distributed to Ukraine. It is a direct combat support. There is no excuse and a real reason for RF to keep those intact.
They will learn nothing new from those ISR stations, and the best would be to deter those as they appear.
It does send a painful message every time a NATO asset is squashed, be it a tank or AWACS, especially if retrieved afterwards.
And what will NATO do about it? Yell at cloud? Maybe for some days, but will not retaliate in any shape or form. The point is that NATO is not retaliating, but directly attacking RF.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 13:14 utc | 237

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 22 2023 9:35 utc | 205

6️⃣Massive use of guided bombs. Even at the stage of preparing the offensive, the Aerospace Forces knocked out warehouses and accumulations of equipment with UABs and KABs, preventing them from concentrating normally for a full-fledged strike. Residents of Berdyansk and Primorsk say that after the start of the Sushka offensive, they began to fly even more often. The Aerospace Forces do not spare for the key targets of planning bombs.

For all those complaining about the Russians not doing enough “carpet bombing”: This is the modern equivalent.
Carpet bombing is a wasteful, inefficient relic of past times that ensures a population will turn against you.
Massive, targeted use of large guided bombs from a safe airspace achieves the same objective efficiently.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 22 2023 13:17 utc | 239

https://michael-hudson.com/2023/06/yellens-daydream/
This is interesting. Says we are going to have nuclear war. Maybe this weekend.
I disagree with that. Worth a read.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 22 2023 13:35 utc | 241

Giacomino @ 239

NATO is going to have another go at Russia (and China) in about 10-15 years

Maybe, 10-15ys from now the west will still be just as dependent on China for production and Russia for resources and their corporations still just as greedy for a share of those huge markets. The really big hold back for the west in establishing the self sufficiency necessary for WW3 is that their idea of re-shoring and re-industrializing is a fiction of the highest order. It is only possible if they abandon neoliberalism and return to industrial capitalism and Keynesian monetary policies, not to mention the abandonment of wokeism which is the culture expression of neoliberalism.
It means ending financialization and the petrodollar hegemony that enabled it, the very things that created the planned wastelands of USA, N. England, etc throughout the entire west. This is not going to happen, they want to keep neoliberalism, austerity monetary policy, regulatory captured financialized capitalism and woke consciousness all while re-industrializing. Quite simply they want to repeat the post WW2 economy without spreading the wealth, without the economic multiplier effect that made that era of industrial capitalism work. They want to the austerity and want keep the economic multiplier effect in the Wall St and City bubble machine to only their own benefit. Re-industrialize and further impoverish the society at the same time (fascism anyone?).
It’s not going to happen, it’s squaring of the circle, total pipe dream, anyone espousing re-shoreing and re-industrialization is lying or a fool or whistling past the graveyard as they gather up as much filthy lucre as possible before it all comes crashing down around them.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 13:41 utc | 243

Paul Greenwood 242
Thanks. I’ll pass the details on to customer service. The AA HQ has no contact no. . I wrote to HMRC recently and they replied after 6 weeks, acknowledging my letter but not commenting on it. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tories hadn’t sold that to Soros.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 22 2023 13:50 utc | 245

248 – Reminds me of a part in a book issued by Not The Nine O’Clock News, a British TV comedy programme, in 1980. An astrologer gives his forecast, and quoting from memory, it ran something like this – “With Thatcher in No.10, Brezhnev in the Kremlin, Kadar in Budapest and a cretin in the White House, I predict a full-scale nuclear exchange and the end of life on this planet.
The next weekend – rather quiet.”

Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 22 2023 14:08 utc | 247

I’m pretty sure I’m correct in making the observation that not a single western president or prime-minister in the past 45 years has been capable of conducting a meeting of this nature.
The contrast in pure leadership skill and intellectual power between Putin and the combined leadership of the west stands so starkly it blinds the eye …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 22 2023 13:46 utc | 251
In general I agree, although I believe (from personal observation) that Prime Minister Bob Hawke of Australia, during the 1980s, was the exception that proves the rule.

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 22 2023 14:19 utc | 249

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 13:41 utc | 250
It is only possible if they abandon neoliberalism and return to industrial capitalism and Keynesian monetary policies, not to mention the abandonment of wokeism which is the culture expression of neoliberalism.
=> I agree
It means ending financialization and the petrodollar hegemony that enabled it, the very things that created the planned wastelands of …
=> well, I beg to differ. The future is not an extrapolation of the past. History rhymes and the example of Germany in the 30s is rather instructive (battered by Versailles and crisis, I.e. de– industrialised). The only resource she had in sufficient quantities was coal.
Alternative sources, incl. recycling and shifting to RoW (see prior post) and alternative materials/technologies will substitute for what is today uniquely sourced in China.
If fictitious „assets“ are going to take a beating anyway, the finance oligarchs can do away with your car (carshare), your iPhone (snappy) and your fast fashion just as well…as you will be happy just to get by with a warm room and some food.
They can put the western masses on mere subsistence (rationed bugs, beyond meat, heating just when to sun and wind allow…) all the while pushing for 10% – 15% of GDP armaments (e.g. a third of real economy) without sacrificing any bit of their lifestyles.
The obvious downsides of woke (think of the hedonism of the 1920s) and the necessity to mobilise the highly productive immigrant (national minorities) population is a challenge but certainly not an insurmountable one.
A fact well forgotten: despite public talk of a Gigant on feet of clay by mouthpieces Hearst and Goebbles ninety years ago, in private the oligarchs on both sides of the Atlantic were actually scared by Soviet ascendency, especially in combination with the prospect of a rising China. In the wake of the Great Depression that scare only grew bigger, they had less to lose and more to gain, everything was neatly arranged, so they went for it. Russia still pays for the success of that operation in multiple ways, China’s rise was delayed by 100 years.
One more thought: the oligarchs themselves, reflecting some strata at the bottom of western societies, may have become fat and lazy. However, it is the Managerial Class that is taking care of their business and I see no signed that there ambition and arrogance is fading. They feel their tight grips around the western societies and they still know how to lure 5th columnist urban middle classes and to coerce and bribe Global South leaders into obedience… they will not leave the scene until all levers were pulled

Posted by: Giacomino | Jun 22 2023 14:25 utc | 251

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 22 2023 14:19 utc | 256

In general I agree, although I believe (from personal observation) that Prime Minister Bob Hawke of Australia, during the 1980s, was the exception that proves the rule.

Quite likely, which is why I drew the cutoff line at around that mark.
As “uncool” as it may seem one of the marks of excellent leadership is mastery of “administration” (oft confused with bureaucracy).
Want to know if your next president/prime-minister is going to be goofball of epic proportions? Watch how he carries out basic state administrative operations …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 22 2023 14:30 utc | 253

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 13:41 utc | 250
Re-industrialize and further impoverish the society at the same time (fascism anyone?).
As this is the price to quickly overcome the industrial inertia of consumerism, the political inertia of parliamentarism, aka liberal democracy as well as the ideological inertia of woke – most probably this is going to be the political shift we are going to see at the nadir of this crisis.
I am curious about which shape and form it will have

Posted by: Giacomino | Jun 22 2023 14:43 utc | 255

#253
Yes and NATO will NEVER alloy USA t
innovate on the battlefield
without Nazi money agreeing.
America is an occupied nation that LOST ww2

Posted by: Merlin | Jun 22 2023 14:57 utc | 257

oldhippie | Jun 22 2023 13:35 utc | 248
I take most of Hudson’s political takes with a grain of salt. His political ideas of what socialism is are the same as Trotsky’s, which is only natural, being that he’s a close relative. Socialism isn’t just central planning – it’s a proletarian dictatorship. Stalin understood this, that’s why Hudson, politically, is anti-communist. He, like Trotsky, never believed the Soviets were socialist. And he didn’t say we were going to have a nuclear war this weekend – what he said was that Kiev might attack Moscow, during meetings @ Vilnius, which COULD lead to WWIII.

Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 22 2023 15:21 utc | 259

Only hope Natozis have is to completely cut off Crimea and Zaporzhinia by destroying all bridges supplying them. Including the Kerch bridge.
Keep in mind that would endanger the lives of MILLIONS of Russian civilians. So it most definitely should be a big RED line for Russia.
Im sure the lunatics in Washington and Brussels are all for this. Sadly all Russia would then have left to do is firebomb Ukranian cities including Kiev resulting in hundreds of thousand of dead civilians. And most likely triggering WW3.
We are reaching the end point of this game of chicken.
Who will flinch first? I think neither side. Only hope we have is saner heads in the West prevent or at least stall the complete cuttoff of Crimea and Zaporzhnia.

Posted by: Comandante | Jun 22 2023 15:24 utc | 261

(Posted by: S.O. | Jun 22 2023 10:07 utc | 211)
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/20230302.aspx
Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 10:46 utc | 217
Second that link on Strizh-3 drone comms jammer. A good potted guide to why jammer work and what their limitations are. I’d add that some kamikaze drones (Lancet, judging by the videos I’ve seen) have on-board target tracking where the human pilot is “clicking” on a point in the video feed and the drone is tracking that point as best it can. If the video feed is jammed at the last minute, the drone will still home in on the last target point so there’s a much improved chance it’ll be successful. Also, a drone using optical communications would be immune to radio jamming.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2023 15:34 utc | 263

Meant to say “few” pictures. Indeed there are some pictures of destroyed UA soviet tanks.

Posted by: catdog | Jun 22 2023 15:36 utc | 265

The Chinese know very well with whom they are dealing with. There was a Chinese MFA white paper published early this Spring which was a no holds barred history of Washington’s 70 year crime spree. It’s was shocking to see the Chinese being so blunt.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 15:53 utc | 267

One thing that Kiev has learned about how to do effective propaganda: It’s easier to spit than it is to wipe it off. We see this most clearly in the most recent effort of the last 24 hours by Zelensky to accuse the RF of planning a terror attack on the Zap NPP, thereby pre-emptively claiming the info space for their own terror attack on the facility. I wish the RF would learn this simple lesson and be the first to make the accusation, not to simply deny the lie. To deny the lie is to be less effective in the info war.

Posted by: Billy the Texas Red | Jun 22 2023 15:57 utc | 269

So many seem to focus on Russian tactics while the Russians are engineering a strategic re-structuring of their security for the next 50+ years, and global political and economic influence. Backed by a fireworks show in Ukraine showing they’re the same militarily immovable object they’ve been for a couple of centuries.
As people say, time is on Russia’s side. Western politics and economics are crumbling by the day, the rest-of-world is de-dollarizing and building up the BRICS bank, China is working to weaken the IMF and to build themselves a market all over the world, and Russia is rushing to build armament for whatever escalation the US neocons are willing to take us to, or for the upcoming cold war and the new carving of the planet, for a declining superpower and two new rising superpowers. Russia just has to look immovable and be careful not to give the US any triggers to escalate. Until the US drops some false flag event that Russia won’t be able to de-escalate.

Posted by: Cine Tee | Jun 22 2023 16:26 utc | 271

Posted by: Cine Tee | Jun 22 2023 16:26 utc | 278

So many seem to focus on Russian tactics while the Russians are engineering a strategic re-structuring of their security for the next 50+ years

A few are able to see the currents and not merely the river:
– The Duran (Alex & Alexander)
– Garland Nixon
– Alastair Crooke
Worth listening to on YT for that dimension if no other …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 22 2023 16:36 utc | 273

@ rk, §269:
Rather surprising the NeoCons haven´t tried to drive a wedge between Russia & China.
There´s Outer Mongolia that could be made into a ´bone´. Or there´s even a genuine meaty ´bone´ in the form of Outer Manchuria.
When China was being carved up by the Europeans in the nineteenth century, Russia took Outer Manchuria (now its Amur province plus Vladivostok & Xabarovsk) and Japan took Inner Manchuria. In the wake of WW2, Russia took Inner Manchuria too but restored it to China once the communists were victorious. But they´ve kept Outer Manchuria, still shown on some Chinese maps as “occupied (by Russia) Chinese territory”.

Posted by: John Marks | Jun 22 2023 16:39 utc | 275

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2023 15:34 utc | 270
Take care, The Strategy Page is often a triumph of patriotism over fact. I very much doubt the UA lost half as many UAV’s as Russia, given Ukrainian operators were bitterly complaining that upwards of 80% were being hijacked. They also were predicting, at the start of the SMO, a likely Russian military defeat was on the cards, due to the UA’s greater initiative, flexibility, and adaptability thanks to Western training regimes. One of the site’s founders Dunnigan, has written quite a good primer, ‘How to Make War, which somewhere might want to peruse, if they want to understand the importance of logistics over tactics and the fragility of combat units approaching 20%+ casualty rates, let alone the 50-60% being suffered by the UA in their latest , advance to the line of contact and become a casualty, offensives that they specialise in.
I always thought the best drone counter was a HK drone, but obviously detection and vectoring are serious issues as the passive solution is preferred to the active. The Dutch eagles have been retired, and doubtlessly would have suffered in such a hostile environment, though the sight of them swooping around, snatching drones in their talons has a very cyber-Tolkien vibe to it!

Posted by: Milites | Jun 22 2023 16:54 utc | 277

Paul Damascene | Jun 21 2023 22:50 utc | 113–
I would very much still like to have your views on what steps might still avert a slide into direct NATO-RF war.
The best thing Russia can do IMO is to rapidly create new facts on the ground in Ukraine’s deep rear. According to the newest sitrep Simplicius has supplied, that effort appears to have begun in the Kharkov region. The Security Council report provided above details the current level of loses and also assesses that Ukraine’s combat reserves haven’t been exhausted, nor has all the Western supplied gear been eliminated. It’s curious that portion of the report was left uncensored; why is open to speculation. What they think NATO intends to do clearly wasn’t made public. Simplicius opines based on lots of chatter that NATO wants to create some sort of diversion to pull away Russian forces from the front, fomenting another coup in Belarus being the most discussed.
The excerpt I provided from Lavrov’s presser yesterday had him saying to NATO–Bring it on, we’re waiting for you. I found that somewhat out-of-character for him, but that’s an accurate paraphrasal of his words. I had typed up a lengthy scenario of what I would do as the Russian commander but lost the text due to an error on my part. Essentially, I would employ Russia’s vast airmobile assets to overcome the mine fields and rivers in a leap-frog combined-forces penetration into the Southern portion of Ukraine’s deep rear with the target being Odessa. This would be possible because Ukraine lacks proper air defense assets and its forces in that sector are depleted due to the failure of the offensive. Straight line distance from Kherson to Odessa is 145km or 90 miles, while the distance from Zaporizhzhya is 370km or 230 miles. The problem in mounting such an operation is masking the gathering of forces to conduct it–not the airmobile arm but the ground component that would need to link up with it and that would include bridging equipment which is very hard to conceal.
One of the worries expressed is an assault on the ZNPP, which IMO would be suicidal. But what if its done in the other direction with airmobile forces creating an airhead in the deep rear to draw the available local reserves to it while Russia launches its own crossing at the ZNPP point and sledgehammers its way to the airhead. Once reached, then the next leapfrog action occurs, while others could be mounted from other locations, like Kherson. Once in the deep rear, Russia’s airmobile forces would be able to roam rather freely as no fixed defenses exist nor are any meaningful reserves available. Yes, NATO/Ukraine would realize that Odessa’s the goal, but aside from trying to interdict from Romania–which would also be suicidal given Russian AD–there’s very little they might do until Russia reaches Odessa’s defenses. And what might those consist of and how would Odessan’s react?
NATO/Ukraine would be faced with two very strong offensives at once–from Kharkov and the West side of the Dnieper. As Simplicius notes, these attack forces would consist of main Russian Army forces, not the ad hoc groupings that have fought along the FEBA so far: although they’ve performed well, they aren’t the formidable Russian Army, which is something NATO would realize. NATO has no capabilities anywhere nearby aside from its woeful air and missile assets to try and blunt Russia’s offensive. And if they launched from Poland, Romania, or the Baltics, those bases would be crushed by Russia’s retaliation, the air assets mostly destroyed probably before they got close enough to do anything given Russia’s AD and Air forces.
There are also some political things Russia could try to keep Poland and Romania out by telling them they would be allowed to recoup their former lands if they remain on the sidelines. Mercs from those nations already in Ukraine would be discounted. Then there’s the fact that the NATO European nations have very little monies to give to Ukraine, their armories are mostly empty, and their citizens are no longer in favor of fighting Russia, if they ever were. A look at what NATO nations politically have driven this crisis since the start shows they are in the minority. The EU is broke–it begged Germany for more euros and Germany said we don’t have any to give.
Again, Russian airmobile assets roaming the deep rear will create havoc and great distress. They have their own APCs and organic artillery. There’s no credible Ukie AD to deter their movements, nor are there many reserves in the deep rear capable of facing them. This sort of attack would be the Russian version of the initial Operation Desert Storm where forces advanced without much regard for flank protection as there’s very little in the way of Ukie mobile reserves to be employed. The thrust from Kharkov toward Dnipro would encircle the Ukie forces in a massive caldron. Without mobile reserves and depleted artillery and ammo, the Ukie position would rapidly degrade from bad to worse. Either the reserves defending Kiev and the Western cities get committed or they remain static awaiting the eventual siege of their positions. And if those reserves to get committed, many will be interdicted on their way by Russia’s air assets.
As I wrote weeks ago, NATO either goes all-in or it stays out. If it goes all-in, it will be defeated for as Lavrov said, Russia’s very ready and waiting. The Outlaw US Empire’s goal to colonize Europe has already been attained. A larger war with Russia will cause it to lose that gain. IMO, the Donors already want to stop and consolidate as the risks of continuing are too great for them–this isn’t their financial fraud where they know they’ll get bailed-out when they fail.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 17:05 utc | 279

@oldhippie | Jun 22 2023 16:18 utc | 277
I remember reading it in one of his articles. I’d have to search my archive of his writing. But I do remember him saying he was his uncle or relatively close….

Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 22 2023 17:19 utc | 281

I think the odds of some sort of rebellion within the UAF are rising. It is a fairly short distance to travel from refusing to go into battle, as reports have it in the Zaporozhia failed counteroffensive, to fragging senior officers.
It’s always difficult to know what the final straw could be for men facing death either way. Either go into a hopeless suicide attack, and die, or shoot your CO and die. But, the law of scoreboards applies. You can only die once, so if you take out 2 or more of the bastards sending you into a meat grinder, you “win.”

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 22 2023 18:00 utc | 283

Posted by: Milites | Jun 22 2023 16:54 utc | 284
Thanks for the warning on The Strategy Page. I didn’t mean to recommend the site beyond the provided link but it looked that way and, as you indicate, even that article looks propagandised.
HK drones could work well, might become mandatory, if the signature matching was robust or friendly drones carried an IFF transponder or were part of a comms / planning network that facilitated implicit IFF. Those biological eagles made some sense against other avians but they’d be too easy to blind or otherwise injure in a war zone.
It is my belief that Ukraine’s sponsors are intentionally maximising UA casualties while keeping them in the fight, I think this is suggested in US statements along the lines of “to the last Ukrainian” and “neither side will be able to win”. How else to explain sending warm bodies into Russian fire-control zones again and again, “capturing” and then being blasted out of the same handful of named rubble heaps again and again. It’s at least plausible that the increasing proportion of NATO “volunteers” will be provided with the means to break through Russia’s deadly surveillance-artillery complex.
Though provoking. thanks again,

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2023 18:12 utc | 285

YURI PODOLYAKA:
On Scott Ritter’s predictions for the end of the SMO by autumn:
▪️ No need to mix fantasy and reality, this is nonsense.
On the situation on the fronts:
▪️ So far, the enemy does not know what to do, because right now they are only losing personnel, equipment, forces. It’s not that there is not enough “meat” to throw in – there is no normal tactical solution to break through our defenses. They thought that the Russians would run, but they had no plan B.
▪️ There was talk that they would move across the dried-up Kakhovka reservoir. Instead, it’s not even a desert, it’s a swamp which is even harder for tanks to cross than the reservoir. This is an insurmountable obstacle, like the Dnieper to the south, near Kherson.
A “head-on” collision is the only remaining option, and it has proven to be ineffective.
▪️The NATO tactics unsuccessfully used by the Armed Forces of the the Ukraine lack aviation, which is usually the main component. That is why the Ukraine insists on the supply of F-16s.
▪️ Nothing will change if planes are supplied. The F-16 is not intended for fights with the Su35. The only thing they can do is deliver weapons.
The current situation is reminiscent of a “zugwang” in chess, when you have to move, but there are no good moves.
About the situation in the Svatovo direction:
▪️ We are attacking, but so far this is only a preparation for more serious actions, we are preparing lines for offensive operations. We will not attack until the beginning of August, and until that moment we must “bleed” them, which is what our guys are doing now in the north.
OSTASHKO

Well, according to Yuri Podolyaka, saying that the war is over by Fall is a stretch too far. Albeit it might not be over, Scott Ritter might mean that the “effective” armed resistance might be over due to low experience, perhaps low moral and coherency.

@WarGonzo reports re Zaporozhye Front:
The situation in the Orekhov-Rabotino direction, as of 20:30 MSK, June 22, 2023.
Another attack in the Orekhov-Rabotino direction was repulsed. The Ukrainians twice stormed our positions, using large numbers of personnel and armored vehicles, but were unsuccessful.
According to sources on the ground, the maximum advance of the enemy is about one hundred and fifty (150) metres, which, given the losses in manpower and equipment, can by no means be called a success.
@Slavyangrad

No breakthrough to Rabotino today.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 18:36 utc | 287

Paul Damascene | Jun 22 2023 21:16 utc | 295–
Yes, as Crooke has written and said too many times to count over the past year, “they didn’t think this through.” The short run outlook so dominant in Neoliberalism has destroyed the abilities of too many to think of longer-term consequences; and by longer-term, we’re only looking at 6 months. An old saying: They can’t see beyond the ends of their noses.
However, I do believe that those behind the curtain–the Donors, those who own the political process in the Empire and most of the EU–have reached the point where they realize they have a very good chance to lose what they’ve gained, which is the EU’s colonization. If events go nuclear in Europe, the Donors will lose all. They’re parasites after all, and parasites need their host alive and not radiated. We’ll soon see.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 21:44 utc | 289

I’d like to suggest that this website have icons that signify “like” and “dislike” or some such, and also that direct responses to a comment appear directly below the original comment. That would make it easier to consider the exchanges of thought. Take a look at TikTok (an awful site but an example of what I’m proposing). I would contribute $ to make this website rewrite happen – can’t do much but perhaps others could contribute a little as well if they support these ideas.

Posted by: bob902 | Jun 22 2023 22:46 utc | 291

I kinda like the pre-hypertext quality of this site, reminds me of the internet before all the bozos piled in. The security needs to be upped, however.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2023 23:04 utc | 293

However, I do believe that those behind the curtain–the Donors, those who own the political process in the Empire and most of the EU–have reached the point where they realize they have a very good chance to lose what they’ve gained, which is the EU’s colonization. If events go nuclear in Europe, the Donors will lose all. They’re parasites after all, and parasites need their host alive and not radiated. We’ll soon see.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 21:44 utc | 296
These elite parasite classes, having little else to do, become obsessed with their own status competition, and after a generation or two of getting away with that, they think that that status competition is all that matters. It happens over and over. Sometimes called the “Three generation rule”. I think we are getting into the 4th generation here, and it shows.
I bless them for their stupidity and ignorance. They would be much more dangerous if they knew what they were doing.
Thank you for all your work.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 23 2023 13:15 utc | 295

Bemildred @ 302
It is not two or three or four generations. Something that is only two generations old, that is a temporary initiative on certain details. Yes, the families make mistakes. Long term it doesn’t matter, they think they are the only game in town. Most of the time they are.
Status competition is for plebs.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 23 2023 16:04 utc | 297