Ukraine Open Thread 2023-147
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on June 21, 2023 at 15:45 UTC | Permalink
next page »Well this is a first!
Can someone tell me when Russia is going to start fighting like this is a real war, e.g. carpet bombing etc? Seems like all the villages are empty near the front lines so no problem knocking off a few civilians. Some say the Russian slow approach is to demilitarise Ukraine but surely a few Tu-160 bombers could decimate the Ukrainian forces in one fly by?
Posted by: Jonathan Mills | Jun 21 2023 15:55 utc | 2
Watching Dima's Military Summary channel, he seems to be saying that the UAF had to redeploy/move a lot of their battalions/brigades away from the border with Belarus to patch gaps in the Donetsk front. He then speculates that maybe they have some hope that foreign troops would come in as "peacekeepers" or something to block a move from Belarus to the north.
It's just speculation, but something to keep an eye on. I give it some non-zero chance of happening. It seems like another 2-3 weeks of attrition of the UAF will likely mean major problems and hard choices, like abandoning certain sections of the front. Marinka already looks problematic for them.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 16:00 utc | 3
Ghost of Zanon @ 4
If Russia moves troops from Belarus Ukraine will need an entire corps of mercenaries not a few squads and a company or two of Poles.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 16:10 utc | 4
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 16:10 utc | 5
Dima did make the point that those troops could be relocated due to a calculation by the Ukrainians that Russia won't move on N. Ukraine through Belarus. So just leave that area unguarded.
A risky bet, but a certain amount of desperation is creeping into the equation for Ukraine.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 16:20 utc | 5
The USA's favourite puppet in the economic war against Russia and China, Australia, continues to do a Westminster (Brexit) and damage its economy for the sake of appeasing the the maniacs in the Whitehouse.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced new sanctions against Australia.
https://ria.ru/20230621/avstraliya-1879651283.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 21 2023 16:27 utc | 6
Play-acting in Ukrainian
In the tread about the Nova Kakhova Dam breach I wrote about Google's not-so-helpful disaster help page with spam link to "official" Ukrainian disaster pages in the Ukrainian language.
The riverbank to the north of the Dnieper is high ground, while to the south is lowlands. The flood will mainly affect the southern, Russian side, while the "Ukrainian" side to the north will be largely unaffected.Why would any civilian, if there happen to be any in these frontline areas, look for evacuation information from Ukrainian government sites? And worse yet, in Ukrainian? ("Ukrainians" will speak Ukrainian in public, but under stress or in panic they will switch to their native Russian.)
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 6 2023 14:39 utc | 153
To prove the point, Slavyangrad posts this video. Five Ukrainian soldiers are driving a SUV speaking Ukrainian and bragging about something. Later the video shows one of them wounded. Evidently the SUV hit a mine or something. All the brave Ukrainians have switched to speaking their native Russian.
What does it take for a Khokhol to switch from Ukrainian mova to Russian? That's right - mine.From tough guys to chumps in less than 10 seconds.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 21 2023 16:36 utc | 7
I have to wonder if the AFU is slowly and surreptitiously moving a big chunk of the best of its force back to areas where they can be concealed. British and American tanks being among the "designated survivors", along with the most loyal troops.
Hope springs eternal in the breast of man, maybe the Zelenskyy regime is counting on the West really digging deep into its warehouses and even currently deployed material so as to provide more air defenses, more artillery shells, more missiles of all kinds, more anti-mine equipment, more foreign volunteers, and even F-16s flown by foregn volunteers. Zelenskyy might be going all in, and threatening*/bargaining that if the West meets Ukraine's wish list, then he'll order a do or die attack that will breach all the way through one area of Russia's defenses, and he'll even let the Pentagon choose the spot.
The mutual fantasy with that scenario possibly being that if the AFU accomplished such a breakthrough, then all of the West would unite and DEMAND that Russia sit down and negotiate a peaceful settlement to the conflict.
We're talking about Nazi mentalities here, so similar to dealing with meth addicts. They're extremely dangerous, but their delusions expose them to being completely destroyed.
*If his demands aren't met, he could threaten, he'll announce that Ukraine has been sold out by the Biden administration, and thus he must ask for a meeting with Putin. Just leaking that threat could be devastating to the Biden administration.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 21 2023 16:38 utc | 8
The Biden crew is just playing for time. They believe that as long as the war continues, they can win the next election with a "war president." Because the Russians are trying to minimize casualties, they are not likely to force surrender terms on Ukraine until after the U.S. election. When Ukraine finally collapses, Washington will shove the disaster down the memory hole, just as it did with Afghanistan, and move on to conflict with China.
The U.S. is following the same trajectory of imperial decay as the U.K. We will stay stupidly belligerent because it makes us feel good. The rest of the world will laugh at us.
Posted by: HH | Jun 21 2023 16:39 utc | 9
Am interested in exploring with the many thoughtful brethren among b's barflies potential steps or measures that might still avert (or at least brake) what increasingly resembles a 1914-style drift into WW3.
I received a lot of insightful feedback on the 'duel at high noon' strategy, whereby, at the moment RF sees the breakout of direct NATO/RF hostilities as imminent, VVP calls a global press conference, gets the Pentagon/WH on the line and explains that in an attempt to avert all out war, Russia will now demonstrate, in launching a single conventional missile (now) at pre-announced target (say, CIA HQ Langley) to give people a chance to evacuate:
1. the willingness (not bluffing) and capacity (you can't stop it) to strike the best-defended rear areas in NATO.
2. Russia's capacity to intercept the single conventional missile at a pre-announced target that RF will tolerate NATO launching in return.
If the world cannot be brought to its senses, then RF sees the next step as war with NATO.
But before that point (which may not be far off) are there other measures that are promising?
Such as:
a. China announces that if NATO does not cease and desist in its aggression in arming and aiming Ukraine then China will begin providing military support up to and including a full military alliance with Russia. Give (Old) Europe a wake up call and an excuse to back down.
b. The Rest of World (OPEC, SCO, EAEU, BRICS, African Union, Mercosur) announces embargo on sales, purchases, debt servicing on any third country supplying weapons to Ukraine. Serve notice to Globalized Western Oligarchy that this is the inflection point--no more war or the RoW turns against the West and cuts it off from the resources it needs for war.
Other ideas?
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 21 2023 16:50 utc | 10
Sometimes it is good to visit the past:
From Antiwar: What Are Independent Media in Russia Saying About the Country’s Ultimatum to the USA and NATO? by Gilbert Doctorow Posted onDecember 21, 2021
The russian Leonid Gozman, political scientist (Nato-friendly), wrote about Putin's Ultimatun from Dec. 17- 2021 in support of the west:
This is not just an ultimatum. This is a demand for full and unconditional capitulation (of the west).
Russia does not have the political, economic or military resources to ensure that such an ultimatum works.
The authors of the ultimatum understand how blithely it will be taken. Such an important document has been communicated not by the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova – her words are likened to the escapades of Zhirinovsky
They are demanding that the NATO countries violate their Charter and their obligations set down in international treaties.
No one from outside is even trying to intervene in what is going on here domestically. This is all happening in an empty space!
The talk about a NATO threat is not substantiated by a single fact. The former republics of the Baltics became members of NATO – at their borders everything is calm.
There are, of course, external threats to Russia – Afghanistan, Iran, perhaps China. But instead of preparing ourselves to repel them, the leadership of Russia is threatening war on those who could be our allies.
Russia’s leadership wants to speak only with the USA and not with anyone else. It seems they believe their own fairytales about how Europe is no more than a group of US vassals.
The ultimatum does not say what will happen if it is rejected. Will our troops march on Kiev, Vilnius and Warsaw? Will we bomb Washington?
The Russian leadership surely consists of people who understand that this ultimatum cannot be accepted. This means they have some kind of plan which varies in a range from nuclear war to the complete closure of the country and its being turned into a big military (concentration) camp.
However the foreign policy situation will take shape after the refusal by the West to accept this ultimatum, inside the country repression will be strengthened – both with respect to opponents of the regime, including those who are outside the borders, and with respect to the broad circle of Russian citizens who are not overjoyed by the activity of the authorities.
The main conclusion: they (Russia) have lost their minds
Well Mr. Gozman- eat dust
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 21 2023 16:52 utc | 11
Re: Organ Harvesting and worse
Video embedded in article with subtitled Interviews with Russian soldiers and investigators.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2023 16:53 utc | 12
An excellent summary of West Point's analysis of Russia military... Simplicius
Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 21 2023 16:57 utc | 13
You are all trying to ascribe rational intent and logic to the actions of the western political and economic elites. There is none. They are poisoned by the critical theory virus and other scientisms. The masses are driven by emotions, malice and nothing will be supported unless it glorifies some aspect of a person’s individual identity.
Sometimes I wonder how many of you live in the West. Cant you see whats happening? The situation before the Nazis came to power in then Weimar Germany comes to mind. Excesses at every corner, both material as well as emotional.
This irrationality is on display for some time now. I think that is why Russia is very careful at the moment, Western society has become utterly unpredictable. The chances for a new Hitler arising in the West are proportional to the pressure Russia applies on our society.
Posted by: alek_a | Jun 21 2023 16:57 utc | 14
The Biden crew is just playing for time. They believe that as long as the war continues, they can win the next election with a "war president." Because the Russians are trying to minimize casualties, they are not likely to force surrender terms on Ukraine until after the U.S. election. When Ukraine finally collapses, Washington will shove the disaster down the memory hole, just as it did with Afghanistan, and move on to conflict with China.
The U.S. is following the same trajectory of imperial decay as the U.K. We will stay stupidly belligerent because it makes us feel good. The rest of the world will laugh at us.
Posted by: HH | Jun 21 2023 16:39 utc | 10
I don't think this is correct.
I am pretty sure that the Ukraine war is not politically useful to Biden, and is not going to help him win re-election. Some Trumpists really hate the war. A larger group of Americans favor continued US support for Ukraine, but it's not a priority issue for them. If he suddenly abandoned Ukraine, that would be bad for Biden, but continuing to support Ukraine is unlikely to get many people to vote for him who wouldn't be voting for him already.
This is from May.
"Like the blue and yellow flags that popped up around the U.S. when Russia invaded Ukraine 15 months ago, U.S. popular support for Washington’s backing of Ukraine has faded a little but remains widespread, a survey by the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy and NORC shows.
It found that half of the people in the U.S. support the Pentagon’s ongoing supply of weapons to Ukraine for its defense against Russian forces. That level is nearly unchanged in the past year, while about a quarter are opposed to sustaining the military lifeline that has now topped $37 billion.
Big majorities among both Democrats and Republicans believe Russia’s attack on Ukraine was unjustified, according to the poll, taken last month.
And about three out of four people in the U.S. support the United States playing at least some role in the conflict, the survey found."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poll-2df50eacb7629c3d8e0d39ff126e003c
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 17:06 utc | 15
Russian Frontier reports on the Krasny Liman direction: The "O" (Audacious) Grouping of the Russian Army conducts offensive operations and repulses counterattack after counterattack by the AFU in the Krasny Liman direction.➖The units of the "Center" group of the Russian Army are conducting assault actions in several areas. Artillery suppresses enemy firepower, after which infantry comes in.
➖ Two DRGs of the 49th DSB, disguised as Russian troops (using the VKPO uniform), were detected and destroyed in the Terny direction.
➖ Near the village of Chervonaya Dibrova, an armored group from the 63rd AFU Mechanized Brigade, on an APC, tried to attack our positions. The enemy was hit by MLRS, and, having lost combat effectiveness, the enemy retreated.
➖ Also, a group of 3 pickup trucks of the 100th AFU Territorial Defence Brigade attempted to drive in from the flank of one of our strongholds. It was detected by reconnaissance, one pickup was destroyed by ATGM fire, the rest retreated.
➖ In the area of the Serebryanskoye forestry, the enemy made two attempts to break through with infantry, supported by APCs of the 63rd AFU Mechanized Brigade. Artillery fire destroyed it.
💥 Artillery strikes were carried out against the ammo depots in Torskoye and Yampolovka.
@Slavyangrad
Zarichne within reach, which can automatically collapse everything east of Zherebets reservoir (Yampolivka and Terny) and split the AFU front in Kupyansk from the AFU front in Seversk. Recall that AFU deployed a lot of stuff to Kreminna forest which couldn't be easily deployed to north, i.e. Kupyansk anymore.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2023 17:10 utc | 16
Why doesn't Putin do this? Why doesn't Russia do that? Why doesn't Putin shoot a nuke out of his dick aimed right at the Whitehouse?
We are still living in a unipolar world. The United States is still the world hegemon. Russia is constrained by this fact. As long as the United States exists, no country can be completely sovereign, not Russia and not even China.
Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Jun 21 2023 17:25 utc | 17
"Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 17:06 utc | 16"
There is no link to the actual poll or its questions. American polls can be framed to do anything depending on the questions.
I can see 50% of ameticans saying yes to "do you agree with US supporting Ukraine"
Actually 50% shows how low support is as it should be 80% or more for such a simpme question.
Truth is Ukraine does not figure in any top 10 lists of most important issues for americans.
Americans dont really care much for Ukraine.
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 21 2023 17:28 utc | 18
Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Jun 21 2023 17:25 utc | 18
You need to get up to speed on de-globalization, multi-polarity, and de-dollarization.
America is going to have to accept being just another nation among many.
The process is long and ugly. See Roman history and the decline of the United Kingdom for a preview.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 17:39 utc | 19
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 21 2023 17:28 utc | 19
and this low support comes after the most massive propaganda campaign pushing the war in us history.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 21 2023 17:41 utc | 20
Helmer on the debate in Moscow on de-militarisation and de-nazification.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 21 2023 17:43 utc | 21
'The USA's favourite puppet in the economic war against Russia and China, Australia, continues to do a Westminster (Brexit) and damage its economy for the sake of appeasing the the maniacs in the Whitehouse.'
Brexit was the best thing we ever did. Apart from voting NO to Scottish Independence
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jun 21 2023 17:43 utc | 22
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 21 2023 17:28 utc | 19
"I can see 50% of ameticans saying yes to "do you agree with US supporting Ukraine"
Actually 50% shows how low support is as it should be 80% or more for such a simpme question."
Probably it is 80% for that question. It's 50% for sending weapons, with 25% opposed.
"Truth is Ukraine does not figure in any top 10 lists of most important issues for americans."
Yes, that seems correct.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 17:47 utc | 23
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 17:47 utc | 24
Probably you don't know what the level of support is in the poll you cited.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 21 2023 17:51 utc | 24
Don't get complacent. If the Ukrainian forces appear to be quieting down, that only means that somebody has another Nord Stream, Kakhovka Dam, or drone attack on the Kremlin up their sleeve. The Ukrainians never abandon a plan once conceived, even if it will (and does) cost them everything. If they appear to be backing off, it's only so that they can rush at you again with renewed force. Ukrainians have all the subtlety of a swarm of hornets.
Russia must know that NATO intends to go in. Russia did not build all those defensive lines in Ukraine just to hold back the ragtag remnants of the Ukrainian army, which it is easily destroying with its forward picketers. Something else is going on here. The collapse of Ukraine will just be the end of the beginning.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 21 2023 17:55 utc | 25
Two Majors TG Channel reports on the Krasny Liman direction:The Russian Army's 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division (Pskov) is on the attack. They are storming enemy strongholds one by one. Enemy soldiers are reported to be surrendering: the enemy is deploying at the front line soldiers conscripted from western regions of Ukraine on average three months ago. The rare units of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU that fight back are destroyed on the spot.
The most combat-ready units were pulled by the enemy back from the front line in advance.
@Slavyangrad
Doesn't look good for AFU in this AFU front. This is on the heels of over 2 weeks of fruitless and (potentially fatally) expensive attacks in the south.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2023 17:59 utc | 26
Ghost of Zanon @ 6
Dima did make the point that those troops could be relocated due to a calculation by the Ukrainians that Russia won't move on N. Ukraine through Belarus. So just leave that area unguarded.
They'll leave the nukes in Belarus to hold the fort, a bold bordering on reckless move that would be a message and red line only a mega fool couldn't understand, but there too the Russians have to consider who the are dealing with. I don't see an other way to take Kharkov if the UKR state doesn't implode on its own soon. Russia will never have security in the Belgorod and Kursk areas unless it takes Kharkov and Sumy, that's not up for grabs, Putin recently much said as much talking about a required buffer, those cities would be the buffer.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 18:00 utc | 27
Jonathan Mills @ 2
Carpet bombing is never one and done. It is a lot of bombs and a lot of sorties over long periods of time. Targeting is way more efficient. Current ISR makes targeting practical. Targeting is time consuming. So is carpet bombing.
Carpet bombing is about a big gratifying BOOM!!
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 21 2023 18:01 utc | 28
Per Prighozin:
- AFU is moving towards Molochnyi Lyman and if they reach the goal then all the territories captured by 🇷🇺 during the SMO will be retaken by 🇺🇦
- AFU began forcing the Dnipro river
- 🇷🇺 will wake up one day and find out Crimea was handed over to 🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1671525811986235395
https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3778
Curious.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 18:02 utc | 29
Thanks b for the briliant job you are doing, writing and keeping this blog alive. And also thanks to (most) of you who are writing here.
I also find it extremely interesting to read Simplisicus.
To me it looks like the RU Foreign and MoD are communicating to the western powers, letting us lay-man's in on what info they have, how good their intelligence is, and they are also issuing warnings. (About Air Defender 23: we know what planes are parked in Holland and Belgium)
The intimate and detailed knowledge of every topic, from war planning, war- execution, satelites, the descripitions of the technical equipment from the Black Sea downed drone, dissecting speeches, beautifully written in no time, thousands of words and taking the time to comment on comments.
With relevant and often not seen before, maps, charts, photos, and translated videos. Unbelievably.
I felt the language today was a bit different, more aggressiev.
Two daily beacons of hope- Moon and Simp
SlavaLira
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 21 2023 18:11 utc | 30
@Ghost of Zanon #4
A few days ago the Russians publicly stated Ukraine has a large buildup along that border and Ukraine and Nato countries better not do something foolish. Whatever private warning the Russians delivered seems to have worked.
Posted by: OohCanada | Jun 21 2023 18:13 utc | 31
The US cannot just memory-hole the war in Ukraine and move on to China. Defeating Russia is a prerequisite for defeating China. If the US cannot destroy Russia, then they cannot choke China with a naval blockade. That means America's only hope for taking down China would be a land war in China, and that idea is so ridiculous it isn't even considered by America's stink tankers and swamp creatures.
I mean, perhaps Filipinos and Aussies are stupid enough to be meat for a Ukie-style meat grinder hosted by China instead of the Russians, but there is no way that could ever go any better than the meat grinder in the Ukraine.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 21 2023 18:33 utc | 32
Danish TV-station TV2 reports that the NS2-leak may have been caused by a tiny amount of explosives. As in tiny enough to fit on a tiny boat hired by a bunch of Ukrainians.
Meaning that different actors may be a responsible for the NS1 and NS2 - attacks.
Meaning that both the US and Ukraine could be the terrorists who blew up NS1 and NS2.
Posted by: Marvin | Jun 21 2023 18:43 utc | 33
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 18:02 utc | 30
Nothing Prigozhin says means anything.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 21 2023 18:44 utc | 34
William Gruff @ 33
I mean, perhaps Filipinos and Aussies are stupid enough to be meat for a Ukie-style meat grinder hosted by China instead of the Russians, but there is no way that could ever go any better than the meat grinder in the Ukraine.
I wonder if the Japanese are to be the new Ukrainians.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 18:44 utc | 35
zinjanthropus @ 30 / catdog @ 35
I had to check that stuff and actually found it on one of the Wagner Channels, they have two. Someone, somewhere, is seriously full of shit, Prigozhin, MoD, Ukraine, Twitter, TG. Prigozhin totally contradicts MoD and almost all pro Ruskie TG channels. Beats me, a pox on social media.
“We have Pyatikhatki under the enemy, the northern part of Rabotino under the enemy, Harvest under the enemy - huge pieces have been given away.
ㅤ
Russia will wake up one day and find out that Crimea has already been handed over to the Ukrainians."
Yevgeny Prigozhin on the situation on the line of contact. Unfortunately, the enemy is gradually taking back the positions previously captured during the special operation.
The leaders of this very operation, represented by the Ministry of Defense, are busy with the Army 2023 exhibition and holding a naval parade.
The supply problem is still acute: the fighters are asking for weapons, ammunition - and a shortage of personnel.
All information is carefully hidden from the Russian people. @orchestra_w
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 18:57 utc | 36
The Sarmat complexes with a new heavy missile will take up combat duty in Russia.
The Sarmat can carry 10 to 15 warheads, including Avangard hypersonic gliders, which, in turn, can reach Mach 27. There are no missile defense systems in the world that could intercept a missile flying at such a crazy speed.
Sarmat is so powerful that it can put satellites into orbit. The concept of the "orbital bombardment" - the missile does not fly along the shortest trajectory to the target, but along any, even through the North Pole, even through the South, bypassing all installed missile defense radars and anti-missiles.
Sarmat is the only military missile on Earth that hits a target at a distance of up to 18 thousand kilometers. And it does this in less than an hour.
But besides the crazy speed, the Sarmat has another important trump card - the total explosive power. Here, 15 Sarmat warheads must be multiplied by 750 thousand tons, that is, more than 11 megatons of TNT. In simple words, one "Sarmat" is capable of destroying a piece of land the size of France or the state of Texas. And Russia has more than a few “Sarmats...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 18:59 utc | 37
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 16:00 utc | 4
People like Dima, including Macgregor, keep telling me that there are 100,000, 150,000 or more Russian troops in Belarus.
Here is what Ukraine is saying:
Number of Russian troops in Belarus has significantly decreased
https://sports.yahoo.com/number-russian-troops-belarus-significantly-154711536.html
Russian military personnel stationed in Belarus are mainly involved in exercises or training at training fields.According to our data, their number there now is no more than 1,000, and this is significantly less than it was at the beginning of this year, when the number of Russian troops in Belarus could reach 10-11,000; later, it decreased to 2,500; and now it is down to 1,000."
I have never once seen from anyone official saying that Russian forces in Belarus ever numbered more than the reported 10-12,000.
Today I see this:
Russian ally Belarus starts 'mobilisation exercises'
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-ally-belarus-starts-mobilisation-exercises-2023-06-21/
"BLOCKQUOTE>Belarus, an ally of Russia in the war with Ukraine, said on Wednesday that its armed forces were beginning 10 days of annual "mobilisation exercises".
Meanwhile...
Belarus Unveils New T-72 Upgrade Package For its Army’s Backbone: Is It Better Than Russia’s T-72B3M?
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/belarus-t72bm2-upgrade-commpare-t72b3m
At the MILEX-2023 defence exhibition in Minsk the Belarusian Military unveiled a range of new pieces of domestically developed military equipment, with one of the most notable being the new T-72BM2 main battle tank prominently displayed at the centre of the event. The T-72 forms the backbone of the Belarusian Army’s tank units with approximately 600 in service, with these favoured over the higher end T-80 tanks the country also inherited from the Soviet Union due to their much lower maintenance needs, operational costs and fuel consumption - leading to the T-80s being sold off to Yemen despite their advantages in mobility and armour protection. While Belarus has modernised some of its T-72s to the T-72B3 standard with Russian support, the majority of tanks in service are still fielded with basic Soviet era capabilities as the standard T-72B. The T-72BM2 upgrade package from the Belarusian 140 Repair Plant provides an alternative both for the Belarusian Army and for foreign clients to upgrade their tanks with 21st century fire controls, armour protection and equipment, and has the potential to be widely adopted not only by Belarus, but potentially by the Russian Army itself which has reportedly struggled to upgrade many of the older T-72s being brought out of storage in a timely manner for use on the frontlines in Ukraine.
Also...
Kiev deploys significant military forces along border with Belarus — Russia’s MFA
https://tass.com/politics/1634663
MOSCOW, June 19. /TASS/. The Ukrainian army has deployed a significant military contingent along the border with Belarus and periodically tries to test the defense capability of the Union State.Head of the second department of the CIS countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexey Polishchuk said it in an interview with TASS.
"The information that we have and that has been repeatedly voiced in the statements of officials indicates that the Ukrainian army has indeed deployed significant forces along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, periodically trying to probe the defense capability of the Union State in one way or another," Polishchuk said.
The diplomat recalled that under these conditions, since October 2022, additional units of the joint Regional Group of Forces have been deployed in Belarus.
"Their task is to serve as a deterrent from invading the territory of the Union State and to minimize the risks of infiltration by sabotage and reconnaissance groups. We proceed from the fact that the Russian and Belarusian means available in the area are sufficient to repel aggression from the territory of Ukraine or neighboring NATO countries," Polischuk stressed.
"We hope that the Kiev regime and their Western curators will have the common sense not to undertake military adventures, the consequences of which for them may be very serious," he said.
Re the Regional Group of Forces, the European Parliament released a document:
Russia-Belarus military cooperation - European Parliament (PDF download):
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/739348/EPRS_ATA(2023)739348_EN.pdf
The new military doctrine of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, a slowly-progressing integration framework covering the two countries, was approved on 4 November 2021, 22 years after the Union State was created. The doctrine pays special attention to actions to be taken during a period of perceived
increased military threat. These actions include pursuing agreed security and foreign policy, regular joint exercises, deepened defence industry cooperation, coordination of armament procurement and a bi- national Regional Group of Forces (RGF); in 1999 the Treaty on the Union State referred to it as a 'regional
grouping of troops' (the media use both names). Other actions include infrastructure development and the establishment of an RGF joint command. The doctrine further addresses hybrid threats, including information warfare and cyber. Soon after its adoption, Russia launched its open invasion of Ukraine. In October 2022, Lukashenka announced that the RGF would be formed on Belarusian territory, owing to an alleged 'threat' to the borders of the Union State. Analysts found it possible that, by pointing to a 'threat' to Belarus' external borders, Lukashenka was trying to argue against direct involvement of the Belarusian armed forces in Ukraine. However, as shown below, it only further stepped up Russia's military presence in Belarus (with the Russian RGF component officially estimated at 9 000 soldiers), accelerated the two armies' integration, and deepened the regime's dependency on the stronger partner – Moscow.December 2022 was marked by many high-level bilateral meetings. On 3 December, the Russian and Belarusian ministers of defence signed a protocol amending the 1997 agreement on the joint provision of regional security in the military sphere. While the content of the amendment remains confidential, some assume it covers the establishment and operation of joint training centres, which would lead to the unification of the two sides' training systems and increase interoperability. On 19 December, Putin and Lukashenka held a meeting in Minsk where they agreed that Belarus and Russia would create a 'common defence space'. Experts expect that such a space will translate into even closer joint defence activities and planning, with a permanent Russian military presence in Belarus. On the same day, Lukashenka announced the start of the combat duty of Iskander-M (the short-range ballistic missile system capable of carrying nuclear weapons) and of the S-400 air defence missile system received from Russia. Putin confirmed that Russia would provide training for Belarusian pilots of jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons (Belarus
claims that its jets have been modified to be able to carry out this task, although Belarus does not have nuclear weapons). Other December 2022 announcements include joint military exercises in Belarus, Russian support for Belarusian railway troop development (note that Belarusian railway workers managed to disrupt military transit through the country by sabotaging infrastructure) and increased intelligence cooperation.Joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises took place on Belarusian soil in early 2023, reportedly focusing on urban warfare, followed by air force drills. A key part of the most recent joint staff training of the RGF Joint Command was 'decision-making on the use of a regional grouping of troops in the interests of
ensuring the military security of the Union State'. Reportedly, the training was 'aimed at increasing the compatibility of the military authorities of the two states' and 'is the next stage of preparation for the joint operational exercise 'Union Shield – 2023'.According to a leader of the Belarusian opposition, everything is ready for mobilisation in Belarus, as evidenced by Lukashenka's decision in October 2022 to verify military reservists' records. Some view this as hidden mobilisation, while for others it is merely a way to check how many reservists have left the country
since 2020. In December 2022, Belarus ran a check of its troops' combat readiness.
From another probably unreliable source, I read:
Russian forces in Belarus recently redeployed back to Russia ahead of Russia’s spring conscription call-up on April 1.
The latest information I can find - June 3, 2023 - comes from Prensa Latina, the official Cuban news agency:
Belarus announces arrival of Russian tank formation
https://www.plenglish.com/news/2023/06/03/belarus-announces-arrival-of-russian-tank-formations/
Minsk, Jun 3 (Prensa Latina) The Belarusian Ministry of Defense on Saturday announced the arrival of tank formations from Russia to Belarus as part of a rotation of personnel, weapons, and equipment of the Union State...BelTA reported that those measures had been taken to increase the capacity of Belarusian formations and units to increase the defense capabilities of both countries that make up the Union.
The delivery of S-400 air defense systems from Russia to the Belarusian Armed Forces was also reported, and the planned rotation of military units and sub-units is being done.
In October 2022, Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko announced the creation of a regional group of troops based on the Belarusian army as part of agreements signed with Russia.
According to reports, the first echelons of Russian military personnel have arrived in the country.
They also reported this on May 29:
Russia delivered another S-400 anti-aircraft system to Belarus
https://www.plenglish.com/news/2023/05/29/russia-delivered-another-s-400-anti-aircraft-system-to-belarus/
In April, the American Federation of Scientists posted this report showing a Belarus airbase that might get nuclear weapons:
Video Indicates that Lida Air Base Might Get Russian “Nuclear Sharing” Mission in Belarus
https://fas.org/publication/video-indicates-that-lida-air-base-might-get-russian-nuclear-sharing-mission-in-belarus/
In short, I see ZERO evidence that any significant number - certainly FAR less than the reported 100,000 - of Russian troops are in Belarus, although clearly Ukraine does even though it claims there are only about 1,000.
However, the continued integration of the Belarus and Russian militaries plus the provision of another S-400 AD system to Belarus as well as tactical nuclear weapons and upgraded Belarus aviation intended to carry it as well as Iskander missiles clearly shows Russia intends to beef up its security between Belarus and NATO. AS I've said repeatedly, this clearly indicates what Russia is intending for Ukraine.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:01 utc | 38
Putin recently much said as much talking about a required buffer, those cities would be the buffer.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 18:00 utc | 28
The buffer can't be smaller than the range of weapons. The area should be much wider than those cities. Putin probably used the buffer idea as a warning that he can get out of new borders if he has to. No one will listen anyway, only the size of the fist matters.
The party may end for passive nazi supporters. the new mobilization method tested in Iv-Frank. will be expanded. No more bribes to escape mobilization, no more running on the streets after men, just cut all services incl. medical and bank accounts. Die for cocaini or die from lack of everything.
Posted by: rk | Jun 21 2023 19:02 utc | 39
Can someone tell me when Russia is going to start fighting like this is a real war, e.g. carpet bombing etc?
Posted by: Jonathan Mills | Jun 21 2023 15:55 utc | 2
---------------------------
Where do you want that to happen? In your home town?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:06 utc | 40
Per Prighozin:
- AFU is moving towards Molochnyi Lyman and if they reach the goal then all the territories captured by 🇷🇺 during the SMO will be retaken by 🇺🇦
- AFU began forcing the Dnipro river
- 🇷🇺 will wake up one day and find out Crimea was handed over to 🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1671525811986235395
https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3778
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 18:02 utc | 30
I looked Molochnyi Lyman up on the map. It is estuary of the Molochnyi river into the Azov Sea. It is close to Melitopol.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molochnyi_Lyman
Posted by: Wim | Jun 21 2023 19:07 utc | 41
There are roughly 10 million Ukrainian citizens living in the EU. Approx 5 Million fled Ukraine 2014-2022 and 5 million arrived after 1.1. 2022.
Watch for signs that NATO wants to press gang these people.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2023 19:07 utc | 42
What is an ERROR 503, and why was that all I could get when I tried to log into MoA this morning.?
Posted by: Ed | Jun 21 2023 19:08 utc | 43
Posted by: bevin | Jun 21 2023 17:43 utc | 22
These discussions by people about how big the Russian "de-militarized zone" should be are just risible.
A few random - and extremely vague - comments by Putin in some speech are taken as gospel as to Russia's plans for Ukraine.
It's idiotic. What these idiots need to do is look at what Russia is doing in Belarus and what Russia's primary security concerns are. The picture then becomes clear. The one person in the article who said if the Ukrainians keep shooting, then Russia goes all the way and the issue becomes irrelevant has it right.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:10 utc | 44
So in post #2 the "why doesn't Russia carpet bomb!!!"
Post three is the MoD clobber list with lotsa clobber.
Seems to me that the general staff's methodology is destroy enemy with the least loss of life to our servicemen. The political aspect is left to to the politicos, who understand that the enemy isn't bringing anything to the table so that's a dead end. Continue the meat grinder.
After a year and a half of this if anyone still complains of any aspect of SMO they're either trol or just stupid.
Slow rol, Z, slow roll. All the way to the sea if need be.
Posted by: comrade simba | Jun 21 2023 19:13 utc | 45
Large (?) number of AFU reserves destined for Zaporozhye front supposedly destroyed in the Zaporozhye railhead complex.
Voenkor Rezervist reports on the Russian Army's nighttime strike in Zaporozhye:— The strike destroyed a large concentration of train convoys that had been arriving for several days, forming a cluster on the tracks. There was also an unloading station and maintenance personnel nearby. All were destroyed.
— The barracks of the Ukrainian reserves destined for the Zaporozhye meat grinder. The exact number is unknown, but reports from the field indicate that they had been brought there over the course of more than a day.
— A total of eight (8) stockpiles with ammunition have been destroyed in Zaporozhye over the past little while.
@Slavyangrad
Good intel is worth every platinum penny.
NgP Razvedka reports:⚠️ According to the latest information, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have prepared to conduct strikes against command posts of the 19th Division in the Vasilyevsk and Tokmak districts of Zaporozhye Oblast, using M142 HIMARS MLRS and Storm Shadow air-to-surface missiles.
In total, the Ukrainian command received up to 5 approved targets.
A complete list of targets with coordinates became known in advance and was transferred to the Russian Armed Forces, so now the enemy can pointlessly (as it often happens) shoot into the air and then report giddily about “success.”
In the words of the classics, "The enemy's plans have completely failed, completely."
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2023 19:15 utc | 46
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 18:02 utc | 30
Posted by: Wim | Jun 21 2023 19:07 utc | 40
Prigozhin is doing his usual "rope-a-dope". It's utterly meaningless. Literally everyone - even in the West except for morons like Ben Hodges - doesn't believe Ukraine can even come close to Crimea or even Melitopol. They aren't even able to penetrate the Russian security zones ahead of the Russian main defensive lines.
I have my doubts that anything Prigozhin says has even any real purpose. as others have suggested, other than keeping his name in the papers. I don't care how "close" he's supposed to be to Putin, I think Putin needs to have him shot. As usual, that's what I would do.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:15 utc | 47
What these idiots need to do
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:10 utc | 43
Don't talk like that about your parents
Posted by: rk | Jun 21 2023 19:21 utc | 48
Andrei Martyanov posting at VK about Karaganov and his nonsense...
When the roof went. Andrey Martyanov (in Russian - use translator utility)
https://www.russiapost.su/archives/330599
Well, his biography is appropriate - a person has neither real education nor real experience of any practical activity that has any effect in the form of benefit. The biography of our archangel is remarkable (which is expected from a "teacher" in the HSE viper), but let me remind you:Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Scientific Director of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. The whole "combat path" of this specialist ... Drumroll... the drum shot intensifies ... reaches a crescendo... in military affairs (c) you can read at the link to the Wiki.
And why am I doing this, you may ask. And here's what: Mr. Karaganov, who, by the way, was going to carry out the trial of communism in Russia (already speaks of a clearly not very good education in the history of this person, we will keep silent about other qualities ... so far) burst out with a program article on the subject of geopolitics. The article is entertaining and even the English-language publishing house RT was forced to warn readers that ... in short, many even in Russia received this scripture with alarm. I took it with sad irony, because I have been observing the agony of this Moscow beau monde, who joyfully served first the CPSU, then a drunken scumbag, and now abruptly signed up as a "patriot", for the third decade. Karaganov is the very embodiment of this beau monde, which grew out of the comfortable penates of the Soviet nomenclature and diplomacy, and universities in which it was not necessary to think too much.
Read the rest - it's a beautiful takedown.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:22 utc | 49
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:15 utc | 46
------------------
Prigozin's 'talks" could be juts a maskirovka...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:23 utc | 50
It should be, Prigozin's 'talks" could be just a maskirovka...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:24 utc | 51
"Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 18:02 utc | 30
Nothing Prigozhin says means anything.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 21 2023 18:44 utc | 35"
Yes, it's clear that his claims about Ukrainian casualties are complete B.S.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 19:26 utc | 52
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 16:00 utc | 4
And some other comments about Ukraine moving troops around.
Blowing the dam made the line of contact about 200 km longer. Various videos now show that mudflats are drying up and some areas exposed gravel. It's not crossable everywhere but it is crossable in a number of places. Ukraine needs to guard that area with a lot more forces than before.
Posted by: Tim2 | Jun 21 2023 19:27 utc | 53
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 19:26 utc | 51
--------------------
Do you know what is a maskirovka?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:31 utc | 54
I don't believe the polls claiming most Americans favor continuing the war..likely they are fake/manipulated..The Ukraine flags have entirely disappeared in the States I travel in, and the people I have talked with want the war to end...
Posted by: pyrrhus | Jun 21 2023 19:31 utc | 55
From Lavrov...
Let NATO fight, Russia is prepared – Lavrov
The Western bloc has committed to fighting Russia in Ukraine, the foreign minister said
https://www.rt.com/russia/578367-lavrov-fight-nato-ukraine/
If NATO, through the mouth of Stoltenberg, once again declares that they are against freezing, as they say, the conflict in Ukraine, then they want to fight,” Lavrov told a press conference. “Well, let them fight, we are ready for this, we have long understood the goals of NATO in the situation around Ukraine, which have been formed for many years.”Officials in Moscow have long accused the US and its NATO allies of arming Ukraine and using the country to instigate conflict with Russia. Russian President Vladimr Putin has described the conflict as pitting his forces against “the entire Western military machine,” and Lavrov echoed this sentiment on Tuesday, stating that the West’s continued arms shipments to Kiev show that the West is “a direct participant in the hybrid war declared against Russia, and indeed the hot war.”
Meanwhile, Putin met with military academy graduates...These are the schools Martyanov constantly talks about - where you get a REAL military education...
Meeting with top graduates of higher military schools
Vladimir Putin met with top graduates of military universities and academies of the Defence Ministry, the Emergencies Ministry, the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Federal Guard Service (FSO), the Federal Service of National Guard Troops, the Interior Ministry, the Investigative Committee and the Federal Penitentiary Service in the Grand Kremlin Palace’s St George Hall.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71472
Friends,Strengthening and developing the army, reliably ensuring national security was and still is our absolute priority.
We will continue to improve the Armed Forces in a comprehensive way with account taken for the new challenges, and, of course, the invaluable experience of the special military operation.
A crucial task in this regard is to develop the nuclear triad, the key guarantee of Russia’s military security and global stability. Nearly half of the units and formations of the Strategic Missile Forces have been equipped with the latest Yars systems, forces are being converted to advanced missile systems with the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. The first Sarmat launcher systems with a new heavy missile will enter combat duty shortly.
The arsenals of the air and naval components of the Strategic Nuclear Forces are being stocked in strict conformity with our plans. For example, the master submarine of the new Borei-A project has joined the Navy. In January 2023, the Admiral Gorshkov frigate [full name – Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov], was put on combat duty. It is intended for open-ocean missions and is armed with cutting-edge Tsirkon hypersonic missiles.
Russian nuclear triad armaments make it possible to ensure strategic deterrence in an effective and guaranteed manner and maintain the global balance of forces. This is the result of a huge, years-long effort on the part of our industrial plants, design bureaus, technicians and engineers, military and civilian specialists.
Advanced armoured models, missile and air strike systems, air defence and EW systems are making a big contribution to the performance of combat missions as part of the special military operation. Their production and improvement will certainly be continued.
There is still a lot to do for the qualitative enhancement of the potential of all Armed Forces components. We will implement these plans in full based on our own scientific, technological, production and personnel potential as well as on the growing capabilities of the Russian defence industry and Russian hi-tech businesses.
We will continue to improve and produce counter-battery warfare systems, and we will go on providing forces with drones and autonomous strike systems that have proven themselves in combat. We will step up their production. It is necessary to supply this equipment to all levels of our forces, including units, platoons, companies and battalions.
One of the graduates responded:
Alexander Tokarev: Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation Armed Forces,Allow me, on behalf of all graduates of the military educational institutions, to express our gratitude to you for your personal words of encouragement for our military service to protect our Fatherland.
We are well aware of the complexity of the military and political situation and the current historical period. Like it was more than 80 years ago, Nazism has reared its head and is again trying to rule the world. We will not allow it. We will fight any adversary, we will show resilience, courage and heroism, loyalty to our people and readiness to defend our country’s national interests at the cost of our lives.
We have received solid knowledge of operational art and military strategy, a firm grasp of modern arms and military hardware at our military schools. We have been taught by teachers, many of whom have gained practical experience in the special military operation and present-day armed confrontation.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:34 utc | 56
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:23 utc | 49
Who is he trying to fool? The Ukrainians know they aren't anywhere near there. The Russian military knows. The West already believes what he says.
The only people he's lying to are the Russian people.
Shoot the son-of-a-bitch.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:36 utc | 57
From Lavrov... Let NATO fight
@ Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:34 utc | 55
---
Complete agreement! The battlefield is the only arena sufficient to prove the outstanding claims.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2023 19:39 utc | 58
At the moment we are seeing a certain lull. This is due to the fact that the enemy suffers serious losses - both in personnel and in equipment. As of yesterday evening, to be more precise, tonight - I'm not talking about the losses of personnel, they are very significant - our men "pricked" 245 enemy tanks and about 678 armored vehicles of various types.
The enemy fears the same large-scale losses in the future, because this can lead not only to the loss of combat capability - more precisely, not only to the loss of offensive potential, but also to the loss of the combat capability of the army as a whole.
The loss of Western technology continues.
Of course, there are also Leopards, there are also French wheeled armored vehicles, American armored vehicles - everything is there. They are burning for a sweet soul (Горят за милую душу).
- Putin
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:45 utc | 59
@ William Gruff, §33:
I think the Yanks have already lined up the Japs to next meat for the grinder.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 21 2023 19:46 utc | 60
@ OohCanada | Jun 21 2023 18:13 utc | 32
Sure. I do not think that it was a telemetry for a fallen angel applied there, by anyone from the RF side towards any NATO build-up.
Military build-up is happening on a massive scale already for the last 6 month.
UK seems like a D-Day preparation hub, with an amazing amount of overseas military cargo flights, Romania being reinforced since last October. Poland being hub for amassed stuff along German border and Baltic coast. Danzig being overflown with cargo ships for many month, too. Moldova has a surge in Polish weaponry, with 2-3 military cargo planes. Then ships and tugs there at delta and also Danube is like cargo highway with heavy load traffic almost over capacity.
Hungary and Serbia monitor stuff there and they know, so RF knows.
It was followed thru the mainstream RF media, while a bit less attention was given on a TV. Indeed, last weeks it was on one or two TV shows that also hosted herr Ritter, Sladkov and some other serious military and political people.
Btw. nobody was mentioning nukes, as they love to do in the West and accordingly at MoA.
So, I guess no surprise there, but RF is not dancing Hakka yet neither.
And Prygozhin complains about 56 empty and ruined houses and 4 farms as a huge loss of positions and no ammo. Right.
Russia is not yet angry as it takes the time to consolidate feelings towards the West, but Lavrov calmly commented that if NATO wants to fight, fine by us NATO will fight, but it will not change anything.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 21 2023 19:46 utc | 61
joke of the week is EU UK attempts to encourage investment in Ukraine.
Posted by: hankster | Jun 21 2023 19:48 utc | 62
TG rumors say Romania will host the f16 base and pilots for Ukr.
Posted by: rk | Jun 21 2023 19:51 utc | 63
Ukrainian troops understand they don’t stand a chance against Russian forces — Putin
"Thanks to the courage and heroism of our fighters, thanks to the commanders’ readiness to repel any aggressive actions against Russia, I believe, the enemy doesn’t stand a change. They understand that and this is why they have stalled now," Putin said at the meeting with military college graduates, answering a question from reporter Pavel Zarubin.
"Ukrainian forces began [the counteroffensive] on June 4, engaging strategic reserves. Curiously, we currently observe certain lull at this moment," the president said, adding that "this is due to the enemy suffering serious casualties in personnel and in vehicles."
According to the president, "there are individual elements of hostilities going on: shelling, reconnaissance-in-force." "But, I repeat, there is currently no active offensive," Putin added.
Meanwhile, he noted: "As of today, we see that the enemy’s offensive potential has not been depleted yet; the enemy has reserves and it thinks where and how to use them."
Speaking about the destroyed Western vehicles, Putin underscored that these numbers keep growing.
"How much - that would require a look at the numbers. The total as of last night was 245 tanks and 678 armored vehicles of various types. Of course, that includes Leopards, French wheeled vehicles, US-made armored vehicles - everything," the president said. "They burn quite well."
TASS
Posted by: rerepost | Jun 21 2023 19:54 utc | 64
Shoot the son-of-a-bitch.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:36 utc | 56
-------------------
Well, I still think all that is planned, a maskirovka. I never cared to listen to what he says, after a few days some months ago. All that is for the 'western' mind. Just to keep them guessing...a lot of 'western' MSM even calls him as Putin's cook. That how the western MSM is misled. Most of the western politicos are also mislead that way.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 19:58 utc | 65
Hankster no. 61
It's not a joke. They are deadly serious.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 21 2023 19:59 utc | 66
"Well, let them fight, we are ready for this, we have long understood the goals of NATO in the situation around Ukraine, which have been formed for many years.”
Lavrov taunting Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the
Posted by: Doim | Jun 21 2023 19:59 utc | 67
@ Richard Steven Hack, §46:
On the contrary, RSH, He is extraordinarily useful to Putin.
1) He gives plenty of false hopes and misleading info to the West - as well as obs on where and who responds.
2) He´s very useful ginger for the army, especially the upper echelons.
3) It gives the impression to RoW that Russia is freer than the West.
To do any or all three he´d have to be pretty close to Putin. So, I doubt Putin would want to shoot him and would be very foolish to do so.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:02 utc | 68
”Bank error in your favor”.
Plus 6.2 billions dollars to Ukraine.
This remind me ”monopoly” game.
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 21 2023 20:03 utc | 69
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 19:15 utc | 46
“I think Putin needs to have him shot. As usual, that's what I would do.”
Hmm, somebody talks differently than the party line. Why, he needs to be shot!
How very appropriate when talking about russian politics.
Though to be fair, nowadays the fashion seems to be throwing out of a window. Poisons having been found ‘made in russia’ quality :(
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jun 21 2023 20:07 utc | 70
The Ukrainian attacks continue, lots of reserves left although I'd say they're still on track to be finished by the fall rains. Results aren't good though even ukraine has been forced to acknowledge slow results even with a little bitterness towards their sponsors.
Summer peace? Will ukraine cede the 4 oblasts then move into nato? The Chinese prediction of peace by summer seems possible still albeit hard to imagine.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for more info.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 21 2023 20:08 utc | 71
@ hankster | Jun 21 2023 19:48 utc | 61
Indeed that is surreal. German Frau U.v.d.Leyen as a Head of European Parliament talks in a country that brutally insulted EU and its citizens via F-arrange in a most primitive and very flag waving Nazi way, while failing in every possible other way, through a famous, isolation based, Island Insanity Syndrome.
Also she burns 50 billion Euros, as for social help to Ukrainians while Europe is getting hungrier, poorer, and possibly angrier.
Nobody from the West will ever get any money back from this wrong endeavor, mascaraing as an enterprise. Just a wrong gamble, Uschi.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 21 2023 20:10 utc | 72
68 I hope a pentagon accountant can help me with my tax return
Posted by: hankster | Jun 21 2023 20:12 utc | 73
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2023 19:07 utc | 41
In Germany, that might be difficult.
As a Ukrainian without military ambitions, I would rely on the following:
Basic Law
"No one may be forced to do military service with weapons against his conscience." That is what the German Basic Law says. From this it follows that the state cannot force anyone to fight in a war.
General Equal Treatment Act
"No one shall be discriminated against in Germany on racial grounds, on grounds of ethnic origin, gender, religion or belief, on grounds of disability, age or sexual identity."
If Ukraine files an extradition request, for desertion, etc.
"No bilateral extradition treaties are in force between Germany and Ukraine; instead, extradition traffic is governed exclusively by the Council of Europe's European Convention on Extradition."
The following is, of course, ridiculous:
"If the act is punishable by death under the law of the requesting State, extradition shall be permitted only if the requesting State assures that the death penalty will not be imposed or carried out."
Posted by: 600w | Jun 21 2023 20:15 utc | 74
@John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:02 utc | 67
Hack is a troll looking for attention with various killing or banning suggestions here, he only comes to advertise his blog that no one reads.
Posted by: rk | Jun 21 2023 20:17 utc | 75
In the words of the classics, "The enemy's plans have completely failed, completely."
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2023 19:15 utc | 45
The classics also say a picture is worth a thousand words.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1670878953819578373
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 21 2023 20:19 utc | 76
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:02 utc | 67
"1) He gives plenty of false hopes and misleading info to the West - as well as obs on where and who responds.
As I said, the West already believes the nonsense Ukraine reports. He's not fooling anyone but the Russian people - and I doubt even they believe him, except for morons like Strelkov.
"2) He´s very useful ginger for the army, especially the upper echelons."
No one there takes him seriously. At best, he may provoke them to take a look at specific accusations, find them baseless, and then dismiss him as an idiot.
"3) It gives the impression to RoW that Russia is freer than the West."
I doubt that's worth the negative effect everywhere else.
I repeat: Shoot the son-of-a-bitch. No one needs his bullshit in the middle of the rest of the bullshit, except for comic relief. The very fact that he's allowed to babble on shows how little Putin or anyone else cares about what he says. Only the idiots, as I said.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 20:19 utc | 77
@ whirlX, §71:
Ursula von der Lying is the head of a fat, corrupt American-army-of-occupation aka EU.
They´re not long for current politics. Every nation is turning against the tyrannical and, above all, ruinously expensive bureaucracy of the EU. None of these nations´ peoples subscribe to the Ukraine war in any significant number. By contrast, their governments, with the noble exception of Hungary, listen to their people.
Every European election from now on will see the fall of globalist, pro-American governments.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:21 utc | 78
Posted by: HH | Jun 21 2023 16:39 utc | 10
Ah!
I admit, I am not fluent in psycho, but if I were, I'd be Jake The Snake, and that's how I'd play my magic flute morning, noon, and night to my NSA colleagues.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 21 2023 20:23 utc | 79
: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 21 2023 20:19 utc | 76
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You've insulted his mother, so be careful yourself. Wagner might come after you... :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 20:24 utc | 80
“Hankster no. 61
It's not a joke. They are deadly serious.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 21 2023 19:59 utc | 65”
I daresay it’s a joke AND they are deadly serious.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 21 2023 20:25 utc | 81
British Foreign Minister, with a funny surname Cleverley supported the idea of a simplified accession of Ukraine to NATO.
Well, good bye London!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 21 2023 20:29 utc | 82
§71 error:
"By contrast, none of their governments, with the noble exception of Hungary, listen to their people."
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:29 utc | 83
@Hankster 71
Hope has no value for banks unless ROI.
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 21 2023 20:33 utc | 84
Paul Damascene | Jun 21 2023 16:50 utc | 11--
Am interested in exploring with the many thoughtful brethren among b's barflies potential steps or measures that might still avert (or at least brake) what increasingly resembles a 1914-style drift into WW3.
First and foremost I highly suggest reading this Simplicius article to understand the nature of today's battlefield and the tactics that might prevail upon it--this is no WW1 whatsoever because of the tech involved. After you've read that, let me know and I'll tell you what IMO will occur.
Interesting take on the technology advances made with the Lancet-3 vs the Lancet-1 Russian drone, and why it can take out Western tanks like the Leopard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D7UNhJhGtI
The Russians are learning in theatre at a rapid rate, with NATO providing all the details it needs on how to destroy NATO equipment.
@ John Marks | Jun 21 2023 20:02 utc | 67
1) He gives plenty of false hopes and misleading info to the West - as well as obs on where and who responds. 2) He´s very useful ginger for the army, especially the upper echelons. 3) It gives the impression to RoW that Russia is freer than the West. To do any or all three he´d have to be pretty close to Putin. So, I doubt Putin would want to shoot him and would be very foolish to do so.
Exactly. Those are his roles, true, and to add another one; he is the character that must make Russians angry.
Putting a pressure from below is desired and also appreciated by Duma and the top leadership, so that they have no excuses.
In essence: different interpretation of a democratic responsibility to the voters, taxpayers, oligarchs and everything in between, and to the military being seen as a 'mother of all freedom'.
Why stop him now? He is also not a military man. When he goes positive and jumping around about RF military then we know it is a serious war.
So, also a precious beacon to watch for us in the West.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 21 2023 20:48 utc | 88
John Marks @59: "I think the Yanks have already lined up the Japs to next meat for the grinder."
Highly unlikely. While Japanese leadership may try to say things they think Americans want to hear, the Japanese population is extremely combat-averse. You may get a small contingent of Japanese troops in Taiwan so long as they think their role there is to help tend the flowerbeds alongside mountain village roads, but if an actual fight breaks out they will be out of there tout de suite.
I honestly cannot see many Filipinos suiciding for Uncle Sam either. The only people in that region who are mean and stupid enough to think they could beat the Chinese and thus would be willing to dive head-first into the grinder would be the Australians.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 21 2023 20:50 utc | 89
I think I've though of the perfect metaphor for the Ukrainian Spring/Summer counteroffensive.
The Wile E. Coyote Offensive!
Anyone old enough to remember "Looney Tunes" classic "The Roadrunner" cartoon will know what I am talking about. A typical episode had the hapless Wile E. Coyote trying multiple madcap schemes to catch the roadrunner, all ending in disaster. Usually blowing himself up, falling off a mountain, or getting slammed in the face with an anvil.
Wile E. Zelensky - super genius!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 20:53 utc | 90
@ Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 20:53 utc | 90
ACME + Wile E. Zelensky - super genius!
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 21 2023 20:55 utc | 92
whirlX @88: "...he is the character that must make Russians angry."
Bingo! Not all of his posturing and flaming is intended for Ukrainian or western audiences. Whipping up indignation among the Russian population is part of his role as well.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 21 2023 20:56 utc | 93
A hat tip to this guy, I saw this on news and on TG and it went right past me, granted I didn't know it was a USA building. Definitely more here than meets the eye. The mess the west started is getting messier, maybe exactly what they wanted. Off hand I'd say an operation gladio event:
Huge explosion destroys American Academy in Paris.Terrorist attack or accident?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2023 21:07 utc | 94
From my understanding I've been right about everything. The anal obsessed amerikan empire's key figure Blackrock (stealing your money without blinking an eye) has their claws into everything Ukraine.
What did I say?
Every. Single. Time.
Posted by: gringo | Jun 21 2023 21:16 utc | 95
pyrrhus @ 54
Where are you? Here in Chicago there are still plenty of blue and yellow flags. Not so many as a fifteen months ago but plenty. Have even noticed a bit of an uptick past month. Of course we do have a large East European population. Jewish population just as eager.
Ukraine is not a subject that comes up that much. In company of Poles, Ukrainians, Jews, Lithuanians, it might. When it does come up all believe Russia is on the ropes, Putin about to be deposed, etc, etc.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 21 2023 21:19 utc | 96
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2023 17:39 utc | 20
I'm saying you need to slow your roll.
De-globalization and de-dollarization are processes that take time. Multipolarity is not yet here and it will not come overnight. Russia and China are doing everything they can, but they are still limited in what they can do because they are not sovereign countries. If Russia was truly sovereign there would be no nazis in the Ukraine, and if China was truly sovereign there would be no ROC in Taiwan. These situations exist because of unipolarity.
We must take a realistic approach when discussing the actions of Putin or Xi, and not pretend that these are supermen. While the West can make bold and outlandish moves to the point of absurdity, Russia and China can afford no such mistakes and must be much more careful.
Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Jun 21 2023 21:30 utc | 97
‼️“Meat grinder near Novodonetsky”: DPR soldiers burned a column of NATO armored vehicles and seized US special forces armored vehicles received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
▪️At the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR, our fighters in stubborn battles repel the attacks of the advancing enemy.
▪️4 rifle battalion named after. 383rd Mining Division destroyed significant forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine advancing on Novodonetskoye.
▪️The footage shows the defeat of the advancing forces of the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on armored vehicles created for the US special forces near the village.
▪️The entire area is littered with the corpses of Ukrainian Nazis, their destroyed and captured equipment.
▪️The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to drive their soldiers to slaughter in suicidal attacks at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR, during the battles, Ukrainian troops suffer very significant losses in armored vehicles and personnel.
▪️Heavy fighting on the Vremevsky ledge continues.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/34033
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2023 21:47 utc | 98
@Karlof1,
Thanks for Simplicius post. I did not read all, but I will come back to it.
Don’t you think that somehow the Germans in 1918 were precursors ins tactics, small autonomous infantry groups?
Of course technologies, experiences make a huge difference.
By the way I recommend Big Serge post on Stalingrad battle.
And if you understand french, I recommend this channel concerning operational war.
https://www.youtube.com/c/Surlechamp/videos?app=desktop
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 21 2023 21:49 utc | 99
DeathToAmerica | Jun 21 2023 21:30 utc | 98
Sovereignty is not empire, to the great chagrin of the terminally online failsons of the upper-middle class. It is not even godhood within one's own circuit. It is autonomy, continence, discipline, and external and internal order that legitimize a sovereign, and it is the responsibility of every other sovereign in that community to remove threats and rogues to the order.
That is the Westphalian steamboat we are all riding on. They razed and paved Cockaigne so there's no going back.
Posted by: Concerned Citizen | Jun 21 2023 21:55 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
UKRAINE'S RECENT OFFENSIVE:
The Russians are neutralizing the recent Ukrainian offensive at a fast rate. Supposely, Ukraine is pausing their offensive. Yet, the Russian are still in pursuit of anything that might be a threat.
The death of a significant number of NATO trained military personnel and destruction of equipment will undermine the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.
This will allow the Russian army to more quickly take the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.
Posted by: young | Jun 21 2023 15:53 utc | 1