Ukraine Open Thread 2023-146
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues here.
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Posted by b on June 20, 2023 at 13:17 UTC | Permalink
next page »Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the course of the special military operation (as of June 20, 2023) (machine translated)
During the day, the armed forces of Ukraine continued unsuccessful attempts at offensive operations in the South-Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions.
Skillful and well-coordinated actions of the units of the Vostok grouping of forces, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems on the Vremevsky ledge and the Orekhovsky tactical direction repelled four attacks of motorized infantry units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reinforced with tanks. Three tanks and five armored fighting vehicles were destroyed.
In addition, fire damage was inflicted on four concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Novopol in the Donetsk People's Republic and Levadne in the Zaporozhye region.
The activity of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group was stopped in the Polozhsky tactical direction near the village of Reshetilovskoe, Zaporozhye region.
The total losses of the enemy in the South-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions per day amounted to 260 Ukrainian servicemen, nine tanks, a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, 12 armored combat vehicles, three vehicles, two D-20 howitzers, two Msta-B howitzers, as well as artillery M777 system made in the USA.
In the Donetsk direction, the active actions of the "Southern" group of troops during the day successfully repelled ten enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Krasnogorovka, Avdeevka and Maryinka of the Donetsk People's Republic. During the fighting, up to 220 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, seven vehicles, an Msta-B howitzer, and a US-made M777 artillery system were destroyed.
In the Kupyansky direction, army aviation strikes, artillery fire and well-coordinated actions of units of the "Western" group of troops defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Masyutovka, Kislovka, Novomlynsk, Berestovoye of the Kharkov region Novoselovskoye and Stelmahovka of the Luhansk People's Republic. In the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka in the Kharkiv region, Novoselovskoe and Yagodnoye in the Luhansk People's Republic, the activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were stopped.
During the day, up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, an M777 artillery system made in the United States, as well as a counter-battery counter-battery combat radar "Zoo" were destroyed in this direction.
In the Krasnolimansky direction, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the "Center" group of forces inflicted defeat on units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Nevsky and Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic.
In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Yampolovka, Chervonaya Dibrova, as well as to the south of the settlement of Kremennaya of the Lugansk People's Republic, the activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were stopped. During the day, the enemy lost up to 100 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, a D-20 howitzer, and an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount.
In the Kherson direction, up to 25 Ukrainian servicemen, five vehicles, a US-made M777 artillery system, and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed as a result of enemy fire during the day.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated 98 artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 112 districts.
During the day, eight ammunition depots were destroyed: the 3rd tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Dvurechnaya in the Kharkiv region, the 45th artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the city of Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic, the Zaporozhye grouping of troops, the 128th mountain assault and The 65th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the city of Zaporozhye and the settlements of Razumovka, Stepovoye and Novodanilovka of the Zaporozhye region, as well as the 106th and 122nd brigades of territorial defense in the areas of the city of Ochakov, Nikolaev region and Tyaginka, Kherson region.
Air defense systems intercepted seven rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system per day. In addition, thirteen Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Kremennaya, Zolotarevka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Staromlynovka, Orlinskoe of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervonoarmeyskoye, Verkhny Krinitsa, Chapaevka and Grozovoe of the Zaporozhye region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 444 aircraft, 240 helicopters, 4,713 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 anti-aircraft missile systems, 10,222 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,126 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 5,175 field artillery pieces and mortars, as well as 11066 units of special military vehicles.
Posted by: rumod report | Jun 20 2023 13:30 utc | 2
NY Times makes admissions. In Lvov, they are digging up graves to make room for more bodies ( this would be consistent with claims that morgues are full and they refuse to accept bodies of ordinary civilians)
They also claim that a lot of Ukr weapons aren't actually delivered or are defective and unuseable. OTOH, Budanov is still alive, it seems.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 13:45 utc | 3
Re: Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 13:45 utc | 3
Budanov is still alive - did an interview with German TV this morning.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1671151252447821828
Who starts these rumours when they're so easily disproved?
Posted by: Julian | Jun 20 2023 13:57 utc | 4
Laughing for real! That Budanov-bot barely moves its head!
AI "deep fakes" are impressive these days, but they still display an "uncanny valley" creepiness.
Like the Ukraine itself, Budanov is dead. The West's best mass media tech gives both the illusion of life. Unlike making effective weapon systems, at least media fakery is something America is good at and has a large workforce skilled in bullshitting to produce that fakery in large quantities.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 20 2023 14:20 utc | 6
The ACLOS page I've been putting together on the Kakhovka dam collapse. Evidence points to a gradual failure after gate and surrounding structures weakened by earlier shelling near the HPP by the Ukrainian side.
This looks to me to have been an accurate analysis https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/kakhovka-dam-destruction
A summary article on South Front says 172 Ukrainian tanks have been destroyed in the offensive. That means half of the tanks scraped together over the course of a year has been wasted in just two weeks making no meaningful gains.
Merry Christmas, the war is over…
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 14:38 utc | 8
@ William Gruff
I agree with your thoughts on the prior thread re salami-slicing and the necessity of a forceful demonstration.
…
Also, I’m not sold on b’s headline from the last thread. I’d like to believe it. But, instead, until the west acts dramatically towards peace and without even requiring anything of Russia or China, I fear they’re just trying to deceive.
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 14:44 utc | 9
If anyone ever wanted to know which news sources are run by US intelligence, just follow them for a while. A number of them (US News & World) report as if nothing bad was happening to Ukraine. Russia is just suffering.... Oh, and Ukr troops are "delighted" with the quality of US howitzers provided !!
Never mind that bad stuff in the NY Times....
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 14:55 utc | 10
Somebody has to pay for the Kakhovka dam destruction, maybe Biden and/or Sunak, or even the paper king Charles...What if the Thames Barrier gets knocked off?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:21 utc | 11
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 14:38 utc | 8
If the hundreds of destroyed vehicles thing is true, then the offensive would already be called off. It doesn't seem like it has been, UAF continues to attack in Zapo. There was a meme saying that UA had already called off the offensive, but that was based on a western journo quoting an Estonian(?!) officer.
Let's see if the Russian offensive around Kremmina gets somewhere and forces UA to change their plans.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 15:23 utc | 12
If the hundreds of destroyed vehicles thing is true, then the offensive would already be called off.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 15:23 utc | 12
---------------
Do you think it would happen with that Jewish mad dog at the helm of what's left of the Ukraine?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:28 utc | 13
To me that Budanov video looks so strange that I'm not sure if it is meant to convince really stupid people that he is alive, or convince moderately clever people that he is dead.
Posted by: p | Jun 20 2023 15:28 utc | 14
Russia carried out an air attack on Ukraine last night. Russian troops attacked, among others, Kiev, Lviv and Zaporizhia. The head of the Regional Military Administration in Lviv, Maksym Kozycki, said that a "critically important infrastructure facility" had suffered.
It is very strange to see this kind of heading today in a rabidly rusofob Polish newspaper...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:37 utc | 15
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 15:23 utc | 12
Well, it has slowed down judging from the reported numbers the last days. And it doesn’t follow military logic, everyone knows you can’t attack in open fields with no air defence and no air coverage.
The numbers are on the one hand mind boggling, on the other hand expected. Any sound, no any sane, military leadership would not have given the order to roll in the first place.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 15:38 utc | 16
Oh, of course, they have downed 32 out of 35 Gerans...
Posted by: Ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:38 utc | 17
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 15:23 utc | 12
Didn't you hear? The offensive has been called off, or basically, "half" of it is called off.
Now, only infantry attacks. No expensive Nato equipment will attack with the infantry, for the purpose of protecting the sponsor's reputation.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 15:43 utc | 18
In Lvov, the building of the SBU, which was destroyed today by Russian missiles, was called "an object of critical infrastructure.
Very insidious Geraniums flew to Lviv.
Moreover, judging by the statements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they were so insidious that they hit the building of the SBU.
Posted by: VIVxZ | Jun 20 2023 15:44 utc | 19
The ACLOS page I've been putting together on the Kakhovka dam collapse. Evidence points to a gradual failure after gate and surrounding structures weakened by earlier shelling near the HPP by the Ukrainian side.
This looks to me to have been an accurate analysis https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/kakhovka-dam-destruction
Posted by: Diagonal | Jun 20 2023 14:27 utc | 7
Now if you could only eliminate all trace of the explosions at 0200, including the seismic record(s)
You might have something....
OTW.....
BULLSHIT!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 20 2023 15:50 utc | 20
The US would abandon Ukraine, just like it abandoned Afghanistan. Time will show!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:54 utc | 21
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 15:38 utc | 16
Well, they do have *some* air defense. We've seen some of it getting blown up. And that KA-52 lost its tail yesterday. And UA's storm shadows, artillery and grenade drones have been seen doing damage.
It seems like each side got one free blitzkrieg at the start- Russia in February 2022 and UA in August 2022 around Kharkov. Every subsequent offensive required a committed grind. Mariupol, Izium, Kherson, Severodoneskt, Bakmut. Will UA commit to grind Zapo? I think so, they have nowhere else to go on the offensive. Unless Russia attacks somewhere else and forces them to redeploy, Ukraine is going to keep beating on Zapo for months. Not at the same rate as the first week, but still.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:04 utc | 22
Dr. George W [email protected] is also no reason to exclude the dam fracturing due to it's, hmm.....distressed state due to constant HIMARS hits.....no one knows to what extent the damage was, especially below the water line and taking in to account the water levels were deliberately raised, the pressure may have been a disaster in the making......leaving aside the timing. But it really didn't help either side, and the infrastructure damage, can't see anyone making claim to that. Imo, the very fact that Russia has provided no evidence to identify any group grinding an axe in the area, I'll go further and say they knew it was going to fail at some point. Just a matter of when.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 20 2023 16:11 utc | 23
B, need help analyzing a video & debating it's release hypothetically.
The clip has already been 'released', but nobody
has talked or mentioned anything, surely a few brass may know, I hope. The generals have gone mad if not.
Would withhold location/date on front where it was filmed a few days ago.
'overall' implications of de/escalation are unknown.
Should clip be highlighted into the clouds before july11?
I don't even want to discuss publicly or start the conversation but again the clip has been released.
Could it end the war? Could it increase it? Depends on the timing and rate of dissemination.
Did it change the generals mind after they saw it?
Posted by: Merlin | Jun 20 2023 16:12 utc | 24
Ukraine is going to keep beating on Zapo for months. Not at the same rate as the first week, but still.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:04 utc | 22
----------------
Another Nazi?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 16:17 utc | 25
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:04 utc | 22
They do have some, especially around Kiev. But nothing in the area of the of battle. Except for stingers, and they can take down helicopters, that’s true.
I don’t expect a big counter offensive, Russia still doesn’t have the troops needed for that. But I would watch the Wagners, they are rested now and I think they are being held back for a reason. Odessa? Charkiv?
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 20 2023 16:18 utc | 26
@Merlin | Jun 20 2023 16:12 utc | 24
my, that's cryptic...
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 16:20 utc | 27
@ ostro | Jun 20 2023 16:17 utc | 25
Don’t bother. Past bar threads are a treasure trove to *interested* parties. More than a year on, anyone posting comments like that can’t or won’t be helped.
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 16:21 utc | 28
Four more m777s destroyed today. I think that leaves about 35 of 150 fielded.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 16:22 utc | 29
@ Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 20 2023 15:50 utc | 20
VP said specifically in his conversation with the reporters that he had no information about a strike on the dam prior to failure. He did suggest that explosives may have been planted at the base, underwater, and detonated but he had no information about this. About the seismic signal - it may be that the failure itself and the surge of water caused the seismic shock - depending on how it occurred and the geology of the site. I personally suspect (without any evidence) that the British with their Ukrainian pals may have planted explosives underwater - it's their style.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 16:28 utc | 30
@catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:04 utc | 22
Ukraine is on life support - economy in ruins and basic services are subsidized by the west, all weapons need to be imported. Without western support the war will end immediately. The only questions now are how long the lifeline will be maintained and how long the citizens will tolerate the government that pushed them into this pit of horrors.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 16:35 utc | 31
Russian Forces Target Ukrainian Positions With Kamikaze Tanks
After unsuccessful attempts by the Ukrainian military to attack Russian military positions in various war-torn regions, a large number of Ukrainian military equipment is destroyed or falls into the hands of Russian troops. The Russian military has found a worthy use for outdated Ukrainian equipment.
Russian troops fill captured Ukrainian tanks with explosives and send them to destroy the positions of the Ukrainian military. Cases of the use of such kamikaze tanks have already been filmed in the DPR and in the Zaporozhye region.
https://southfront.org/russian-forces-target-ukrainian-positions-with-kamikaze-tanks/
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 20 2023 16:43 utc | 32
re budanov
we have been hearing the same kind of rumours about Putin for years
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 20 2023 16:43 utc | 33
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 16:35 utc | 31
Sure, but so what? The pro Z-space is over-optimistic about the west suddenly dropping support for Ukraine. People are inclined to believe what they want to believe. Commenters like ostro and natokraine can continue living in the Saker fantasyland, where Ukraine's entire Donbass army was caught in a big kotel and destroyed over a year ago.
Any mainstream western newspaper article that has any critical comment about Ukraine is held up as evidence that NATO will give up any minute now. Meanwhile, NATO is doubling down again, sending more weapons and upping the escalation ladder with cruise missiles and fighter jets. Yes, the western public is starting to get bored of the war, and they aren't enamored of Mr. Z's begging like they used to be, but that doesn't matter. How much war weariness has it taken to end previous wars? Westerners aren't even being drafted yet. The only thing that's likely to make Nato give up is finally running out of weapons to donate, and the question is which runs out first, NATO tanks or Russian patience.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:54 utc | 34
Sure, but so what? The pro Z-space is over-optimistic about the west suddenly dropping support for Ukraine. People are inclined to believe what they want to believe. Commenters like ostro and natokraine can continue living in the Saker fantasyland, where Ukraine's entire Donbass army was caught in a big kotel and destroyed over a year ago. Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:54 utc | 34
The current situ, in conjunction with Nato's devastated arsenals, is that AFU is in a similar position as an engine running without oil. The west is trying to run the AFU engine without oil and it is wearing down faster than ever before. The loss of these Nato trained troops, sending infantry to attack without Nato vehicles (only ones left now) will keep a heightened rate of casualties.
Stoltenburger made the case today for AFU not attacking though, by acknowledging that Russia has "defensive lines with minefields". But what the hey, they had to give it the old college try anyway, and Ben Hodges and David Petraeus just two weeks ago were blabbering how RU AF is in the sad state that, actually AFU turned out to be.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 17:02 utc | 35
@catdog | Jun 20 2023 16:54 utc | 34
"People are inclined to believe what they want to believe"
Indeed - I'm sure you have a mirror handy.
As I said some months ago, in my opinion I believe the situation will be somewhat clearer by September.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 17:04 utc | 36
Jonathan W@33..... wait, you heard rumors that Pres Putin was the target of a missile strike, hmm ... hadn't heard that one before.
Cheers m
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 20 2023 17:08 utc | 37
Somebody has to pay for the Kakhovka dam destruction, maybe Biden and/or Sunak, or even the paper king Charles...What if the Thames Barrier gets knocked off?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 20 2023 15:21 utc | 11
##############
It took me a long time to learn that there is no justice in this world. Bad people do bad things and get away with it, more often than not other people help them get away with it.
If you believe in a Creator and Day of Judgment, then the one who sees and knows all will hold people to account in a way we never could as humans.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 20 2023 17:10 utc | 38
NATO and certainly the USA aren't running out of weapons, they are running out of stuff they don't mind getting rid of, junk they can up price their respective MICs for fancy new stuff, or weapons that won't cross red lines that they aren't, at this moment, prepared to cross like F16s. What they have plenty of are shiny new Richie Rich toys the western generals don't want grubby, careless, hoi polloi Ukrainians to break the minute they touch them. The world has weapons up the wazoo.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 20 2023 17:44 utc | 39
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 20 2023 17:04 utc | 36
"Indeed - I'm sure you have a mirror handy."
The snide comments here have gotten tiresome. Ukraine's offensive has so far failed even worse than I could have hoped. But in the last week I've made a few posts only to the effect that I don't believe ~200 UA tanks have been destroyed since June 4 and that the offensive isn't over yet, and as a result I've been dogpiled with brain-dead comments accusing me of being a UA shill. It's the kind of shit you'd expect from NAFO boomers, when one of them goes a little off script and they all turn on him.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 17:44 utc | 40
... but they still display an "uncanny valley" creepiness.
...
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 20 2023 14:20 utc | 6
You say that but the whole Ukrainian political class resemble amateurish fakes at the best of times. Barring a handful of honourable exceptions, one could say the same of the entire western political class.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 20 2023 17:46 utc | 41
ostro: ...What if the Thames Barrier gets knocked off?
Nothing. It's open all the time. Just there in case of a oncvin-a-lifetime surge stide up the estuary.
If you want to do something effective that would truly make a difference to the world, try a new Panama Canal from Atlantic to Pacific and stretching from the Rio Grande to the Canadian border.
Posted by: petra | Jun 20 2023 18:11 utc | 42
Bhadrakumar noting that Russia threatening to respond immediately against Ukrainian "decision-making centers" if HIMARS or Storm Shadow are used against Crimea. Shoigu also states that Russia will view any use of HIMARS or Storm Shadows against Crimea as signalling direct participation of U.S. and U.K. in hostilities.
So I think we know what the U.S. is planning to distract attention from the failed offensive. Who will call whose bluff?
https://twitter.com/BhadraPunchline/status/1671209109515907089?cxt=HHwWosC94ZT1qbEuAAAA
Posted by: WJ | Jun 20 2023 18:25 utc | 43
Seen this one? Talk about uncanny valley, the one below it is super funny:
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/33976
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 20 2023 18:26 utc | 44
It is not certain that the US can afford to stop supporting Ukraine. Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq or most other interventions, the US has made this war into a vote of confidence regarding the might of its empire. The opponent isn't an amorphous group or a third world country no one knows. It will be difficult to reframe a retreat from Ukraine as anything other than a comprehensive defeat of NATO at the hands of a single opponent. This is something that has never happened before.
@WJ
Russia stated that it will hit decision-making centers on Ukrainian territory. To me it seems like the US would trade a strike on Crimea for a hit on some bunker in Ukraine which can be denied any day of the week. Not sure why the Russians seem to think these two are equivalent, but they do have actual information.
Posted by: Plebs | Jun 20 2023 18:27 utc | 45
Following American politics is a thoroughly humiliating endeavor. RT has got some quotes from the loudmouthed new yorker.
“I thought he might do it. Look, I talked to him. I said, ‘If you do it, there’s going to be hell to pay. It’s going to be a catastrophe. Don't do it’,” Trump said. “I told him I was going to do something. He said, ‘No, no, no, you will not do that’. I said, ‘I will, Vladimir, I will do it. I’m going to do it’.”
What other cards did he have to play aside from bombastic, sensational outbursts? Americans throughout the political spectrum are in for a hard landing. This is good.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 20 2023 18:35 utc | 46
I do agree that the Z space is a tad optimistic. If allowed to switch to the defense, liberally supplied with more cold war material and subsidized to keep the economy from collapsing Ukraine can fight a completely defensive and ultimately hopeless war effort for a while yet on the back of Russian aversion to mass casualties. Barring sudden collapses of morale, popular revolt and other similar possibilities.
Posted by: Plebs | Jun 20 2023 18:37 utc | 47
Re: Nuke Targets in the USA
A day or so ago, a barfly commented that he thought certain US cities would be spared getting Nuked because they didn’t have serious military installations - he mentioned LA as an example:
Hate to tell him but….. LA basin is a prime target, among many reasons is this prime target/
The 5,000 acre Seal Beach Naval Weapons Station where (honest injun no nukes are stored) would be target numero uno.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Weapons_Station_Seal_Beach
For a real scary view - google earth the weapons station - those little grey thingees are hundreds of deep underground ammo bunkers that certainly do not have any nuclear weapons stored there, no siree.
Conclusion - you might be living close to a major military installation target and not even know it.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 18:38 utc | 48
@20 Doctor George
The larger reported seismic event (not a confirmed explosion) may well be due to the flood ripping through the building where very large turbines and generators were housed. https://megaconstrucciones.net/en/kakhovka-reservoir/
There's no corroborating evidence available of a large bomb going off. Which isn't to say that there couldn't have been. But there doesn't have to be to explain the collapse. The prior damage and heightened water pressure look like sufficient causes over time.
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Khakovka_Dam_collapse
Posted by: Plebs | Jun 20 2023 18:37 utc | 47
Maybe you start a short research concerning the economy of ucraine...
Your expectations would be different, i guess.
Ucraine is just a sock with USA/GB/Poland/germany ... are hiding inside. As long as they put something in, the war will last. The question is, what they are able to and what they are ready for.
If you see ucraine as a kind of Monty Phytons Black Knight, body and voice controlled by NATO, you would be right.
https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs
Posted by: 600w | Jun 20 2023 19:03 utc | 50
40. How is it dog piling to tell you Ukraine is finished, her prostrate corpse used as a marionette by cowardly Maerican leadership to try to do more damage to Russia before they finally discard the thing like a soiled condom?
It's a summation of the situation. Ukraine, were it led by independent leaders not directly paid with Maerican lucre, would have suded for peace months ago. Only Maerican demands cause this tragicomedy to continue.
It's shameful on the part of the West and will not lead to victory. Noone is dog piling, there is a general consensus amongst the informed..lots of disagreement as well. You appear to be somewhat misreading the situation.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 20 2023 19:11 utc | 51
Posted by: Diagonal | Jun 20 2023 14:27 utc | 7
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 20 2023 15:50 utc | 20
The bmanalysis post leaves a lot to be desired. Aside from ghosting explosion claims, he doesn’t source water level data for the upstream dams to show that it was Ukraine dumping water that filled the dam. This is important because Big Serge asserts (but does not demonstrate) that RF did have control of the Kakhovka water level but chose to let it fill up to the level at which it ultimately failed.
The point here is that if RF chose to let the already damaged dam fill to an absolute record level, why did they do that? If RF didn’t have control of the level, why did they say nothing for the weeks it took for the level to reach its final height? I am not aware of any official statements from RF MoD or any other official channel during the ramp up of the Kakhovka Dam water level
Beyond that is the simple observation, in hindsight, that RF MoD strategy on Kakhovka Dam was, at best, to leave it to its fate. This leads naturally to the questions of who knew and approved of that strategy.
Posted by: anin2020 | Jun 20 2023 19:15 utc | 52
@40 catdog
Absolutely true. "Concern troll" is also a favorite to stifle speech that wanders away from the narrative that is patrolled by self proclaimed fact checkers.
It's just as bad as any mindless pro Ukrainian position. Thank you for pointing this out.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 20 2023 19:16 utc | 53
46. Of course. All kinds of things are possible.
With sane strategic leadership Maerica could postpone its decline and carve out a new relationship amongst equals living in peace.
But the delusional, myopic, arrogant and frankly stupid leadership will do no such thing precisely because they are unable to conceptualize it..their hubris does not allow it. They will accept no losses to consolidate, reconsider, strategize. They will only push forward directly into the waiting inferno.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 20 2023 19:16 utc | 54
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 20 2023 19:11 utc | 51
I do not disagree with your prognosis for Ukraine, except for how long it will take. Above you can see where I was called "nazi" apparently only because I predicted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue for a few more months.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 20 2023 19:19 utc | 55
The Ukraine statistics:
There are fewer than 12 million people living in the area governed by Kiev. 90% of employees earned less than $500/month gross in 2021. Between 2014 and 2021 more than 8 million voted with their feet and left.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 19:20 utc | 56
There is some heightened concern here I think. Not to excuse this, myself I read even obvious actual trolls like Zanon..only really skip the disruptive nonsensical race religious quasi schizophrenic rants..but I think passions and concerns are heightened right now.
There is a sense of shit or get off the pot and I'm worried Maericas crazy people in the basement are going to take us over the top to WW3 through pure hubris. Biden today babbling about tactical nuclear weapons. It's possible peoples nerves are frayed beyond usual tolerances.
Thr proprietor of this establishment asks that we refrain from such aspersions..it can be difficult but I hope we all try to hold to the better angles of our nature. It's true that I often have much to learn from those I deem my enemy.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 20 2023 19:26 utc | 57
Fwd from @rybar 🇷🇺 (https://rybar.ru/piwigo/i.php?/upload/2023/01/19/20230119124832-cfeab17d-xx.jpg) 🇺🇦 Orikhiv sector The situation at the end of the day on June 20, 2023This morning, the armored group of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU entered the village of Pyatikhatki, which was located in the gray zone, and from there the infantry swooped down and tried to break through to Zherebyanki.
As a result of the ensuing battle, the offensive was stopped, and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade Brigade retreated to its original positions. Neither the Russian Armed Forces nor the AFU have confident control over the Pyatikhatki. At the same time, the confirmed losses of the enemy amounted to 57 people killed.
🔻Ukrainian formations also carried out a sortie at the Rabotino-Verbove line, trying to break into the defense of the Russian Armed Forces, using the already standard tactics of transferring infantry to the front line with armored vehicles.
The assault groups of the 65th Mechanized Brigade of the AFU took part in the attack, which could not gain a foothold and retreated with losses. The number of refuseniks is growing in the ranks of Ukrainian formations, including in the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the 9th Army Corps of the AFU. They were replaced by the 25th assault battalion of the formation.
❗️The number of confirmed losses in equipment in the "elite" 47 brigade exceeded more than 100 units. This is confirmed by the transfer to the command of the commander of the Mechanized Brigade of the tank battalion of the 33rd mechanized brigade, which arrived at Orekhovo.
In addition, units of the 71st Jaeger Brigade of the AFU from the Marun tactical group were transferred to Yegorovka. Earlier, paratroopers of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade had already appeared in the same area. The appearance of formations from the "Marun" indicates the imminent activation of the AFU in the Gulyaipole sector of the front.
Map in high resolution
(https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/20/20230620204952-8282f4f7.jpg) #digest #map Zaporizhia #Russia #Ukraine #Orekhov
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/33844
){kind=link}
){kind=link}
The grey area in Pyatikahtki village continues, but it probably suits RU more than AFU, since the onus is on AFU to expand the bridgehead and move ahead. The village itself is on lower land, while entering is possible, staying there might be harder.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 19:34 utc | 58
Hi Exile, i was that barfly saying LA would be spared. I am in a safe, very remote place.
In Terminator 2, a nuke was dropped dead center LA skyscrapers. That is what I meant would not happen. The targets would not be to maximize civilian deaths, but to destroy military targets.
However, I anticipated LA might be challenged, not for Seal Beach, (15 miles away) but because major transport hubs and financial hubs could be thrown in as well, like New York.
The first mission a of a first strike is to debilitate a counter strike.
And i guess it could be argued, that a counter strikes aim could be to maximize damage and wipe out a civilization because it committed first strike, and since missiles ate already in air, it would be pointless to try to hit their silos, might as well just kill as many as possible.
But point taken, There are bases all over the USA. Where I am there is a slight chance a nuke could hit a small station 20 miles away, but a powerful cruise missile lob would achieve the same result... ..and now, because of missile defense systems, every icbm would need to be grouped up with other so chances would be higher that one gets through.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 19:47 utc | 59
Over at Slavyangrad, Gleb Bazov offers the candid opinion that he was underestimating just how awful Ukr losses of men and equipment actually are.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 19:55 utc | 60
Posted by: WJ | Jun 20 2023 18:25 utc | 43
Somewhere, sitting on a hard drive and probably accompanied by a PP presentation is the contingency plan for catastrophic damage to the Kerch bridge, buried deep in the computer is also an updated strike list of targets, in case NATO initiate the former event. NATO have therefore got to evaluate the risk/reward for for such an action and, given the offensive is rapidly reaching the point of equilibrium without any real progress, that evaluation is even more fraught. Whilst it’s true that the present calculus favours the defender, a complete collapse of the integrity of the front risks unleashing an offensive that could genuinely be Cobraesque in its game changing capability.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 20 2023 20:11 utc | 61
@ WJ | Jun 20 2023 18:25 utc | 43
Shoigu also states that Russia will view any use of HIMARS or Storm Shadows against Crimea as signalling direct participation of U.S. and U.K. in hostilities.
Why just Crimea? You touch one inch of Russian territory, and you will pay a high price for it.
Until Shoigu clearly calls out US and UK and threatens them directly
with hitting “centres of origin” and not some vague “decision centres” and puts emphasises on those in Ukraine – it is all a clear path for NATO to do and hit whatever they want. And they will.
Shoigu should also firmly warn NATO for the last time that all ISR assets and their escorts will be taken down above the Black Sea.
Once when Shoigu paints a very clear picture to NATO, than RF can do whatever it wants, and really enforce those words to do promised stuff.
Until then, it is 'Old Man Yells at Cloud' situation and “a special needs people” running in and around NATO will laugh all the way to Storm Shadow programming console.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 20:16 utc | 62
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 19:55 utc | 60
They don’t want the Ukrainians to turtle too quickly. Soon they will reach a point of force degradation that is unrecoverable, it’s beginning to resemble the Kaiser’s offensive in 1918; however, the Germans managed to advance and take some of their initial objectives, whereas the Ukrainians are still fighting over D+12 hour objectives, three weeks later!
Posted by: Milites | Jun 20 2023 20:17 utc | 63
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RueQXJCSVUI
Is this true? Or just hype? Russia took a whole Ukr. base?
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 20 2023 20:22 utc | 64
Military Summary reports that AFU has yet again reshuffled more of their units around, from north to south. AFU has deployed a powerful force of 2 mech/1 tank / 1 arty brigade on the front facing Gulyapole, which so far has been more quiet area of Zaporozhye line.
Additionally AFU has deployed more stuff to the front facing Kreminna and Kreminna forest. RU has also deployed more stuff W of Kreminna, and NW of Kreminna, south of Svatove. It's not clear who is going to attack or defend, or perhaps it will be another meat grinder.
My guess is after repeated failures on Zap main lines, AFU is in no position to attack large attacks on the Kreminna front, but it might be RU intending to attack between Kreminna-Svatove, if they see Zaporozhye winding down and AFU units sufficiently wrecked. But Zaporozhye isn't over yet, for sure.
Also the "Shahed-mobiles" that were filmed were south of Marinka, which are supposedly effective clearing those trenches. Remember that they are mostly fields, with narrow tree lines in between. The trenches are always/mostly on those tree lines.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 20:24 utc | 65
An 'unspecified number' of crew members have reportedly died in a Canadian helicopter accident.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/petawawa-military-helicopter-crash-river-missing-1.6882094
I wonder if the unspecified number happens to equal Canadian 'advisors' lost in Ukraine.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 20 2023 20:28 utc | 66
Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 18:38 utc | 48
You're probably right. Anything which is a port or near to one will be toast, including my bailiwick, San Francisco-Oakland along with Seattle, San Diego, New York, etc. You don't leave ports standing in a nuclear war unless you're doing tit-for-tat exchanges, not a spasm war.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 19:47 utc | 59
You are aware of the destruction radius of even a 1-megaton nuke, right? That is, eighty square miles. 10-kiloton, half a mile. Russian MIRV light warheads are estimated to be from 550-750kt each. Heavy warheads could be up to 1-megaton.
From the Blast Wave Effects Calculator at Nuclear Weapons Education Project at MIT:
For a specific effect, choose the energy yield of the nuclear weapon explosion (kilotons):Enter the energy yield in kilotons: 500
Groundburst
Peak overpressure:20 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 1.7 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolishedPeak overpressure:10 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 2.4 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Reinforced concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished. Most people are killed.Peak overpressure:5 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 3.6 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Most buildings collapse. Injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.Peak overpressure:3 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 5.0 Kilometers
Damage and injuries: Residential structures collapse. Serious injuries are common, fatalities may occur.Peak overpressure:1 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 11.0 Kilometers
Damage and injuries: Window glass shatters Light injuries from fragments occur.Airburst
Peak overpressure:20 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 1.9 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolishedPeak overpressure:10 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 2.9 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Reinforced concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished. Most people are killed.Peak overpressure:5 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 4.4 Kilometers
Damage and injuries:Most buildings collapse. Injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.Peak overpressure:3 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 6.1 Kilometers
Damage and injuries: Residential structures collapse. Serious injuries are common, fatalities may occur.Peak overpressure:1 psi
Distance from the explosion site: 12.9 Kilometers
Damage and injuries: Window glass shatters Light injuries from fragments occur.
750kt extends that last out to 14.8 kilometers which is about 9 miles. I wouldn't count on being 15-20 miles away from a target site to be particularly safe.
Particularly since there is every likelihood that, at least for serious targets, probably two warheads would be used each and they likely wouldn't land exactly on the same spot.
By the way, the US has no missile defense systems against either Russian hypersonics or Russian Sarmat ICBMs.
The safest thing to assume is that every one of the fifty Major Metropolitan Areas and ALL military targets of any significance will be destroyed. Then look at the usual fallout maps. There is only one area - northeastern Utah and southwestern Oregon - which remains fallout free. That's where I'm going if Russia and the US start anything serious, assuming I can't get travel to South America.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 20:34 utc | 67
@ whirlX | Jun 20 2023 20:16 utc | 62
I suspect Ru is waiting for an attack that takes too much off the salami at once — an against them that’s appropriate enough for a huge retaliation but will be judged positively by the RoW as “justified” / “they had it coming”.
In the meantime, Ru keeps winning kinetically, diplomatically, financially, technologically, and industrially. …. (What did I miss?)
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 20:47 utc | 68
Nuke this. Put in your location - launch - see the results.
Boom goes London, boom Paris ... apologies to Randy Newman.
Posted by: Just Observing | Jun 20 2023 20:48 utc | 69
Seriously, the USA is falling apart. Read the headlines. The corruption is off the charts. Nobody can fix anything because of it. The population is growing poorer and sicker, mentally and physically.
GTFO.
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 20:50 utc | 70
@rsh Yes i am aware.
And the chances of them wasting a nuke on the station, (very small base, coast guard), 20 miles away, around a corner, blocked by mountains) is very small. There are thousands more juicier targets in NATO. It is not nil, as it has a small nuclear war strategic value, but it certainly would only require a small nuke, and not an air burst at that.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 21:10 utc | 72
@ natokraine | Jun 20 2023 20:47 utc | 67
In the meantime, Ru keeps winning kinetically, diplomatically, financially, technologically, and industrially. …. (What did I miss?)
Morally. One of the most important fields.
But even while winning is going good, RF is not appearing to NATO resolute enough. And that is now needed, so NATO cannot be allowed to double down unpunished.
There are 480 nukes in Europe, mostly stored in exact bases, from which NATO plans to fly F-16 and other unannounced stuff, for starters.
Also the evil plan is to pressure Türkiye to let US Airforce to strike RF. A very short arrival time. We will see how that goes.
Stratotankers are to be placed over the Black Sea and near Ukrainian-Polish border, levelled not very far from Rzeszów - Lamberg line.
That all should be denied to NATO/Ukrainian dreamteam.
We will see what really happens, I guess real soon.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 21:15 utc | 73
The safest thing to assume is that every one of the fifty Major Metropolitan Areas and ALL military targets of any significance will be destroyed. Then look at the usual fallout maps. There is only one area - northeastern Utah and southwestern Oregon - which remains fallout free. That's where I'm going if Russia and the US start anything serious, assuming I can't get travel to South America.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 20:34 utc | 66
How ridiculous, when has RF demonstrated any willingness to murder civilians en masse? The likely strikes if they become necessary given the current backpeddling by the US, are military targets and command centers.
Putin has stated they don't need to use nuclear to do it, so fallout is not going to be the problem.
In any case, American cities are already degrading, polluted and violent, why would Russia need to destroy them when you guys are doing a great job of that all on your own?
Posted by: K | Jun 20 2023 21:16 utc | 74
Posted by: K | Jun 20 2023 21:16 utc | 73
If Russian cities are nuked, Russia will nuke US cities. And I'm pretty sure at the very least that the US would try to nuke Moscow, St. Petersburg and anything else of significant size, as well as military targets.
City exchanges have been on the cards since the 1960's. Go read up on the Hudson Institute and Herman Kahn. There is nothing "ridiculous" about it.
Granted, Russia could possibly defeat the US without using nukes. However, it would be stupid to consider that a certainty, if for no other reason than the US has nuclear submarines which will remain functional as a second strike capability. Then there is the Chinese doctrine, which I'm not familiar with.
When it comes to nuclear war, it is safe to "hope for the best, plan for the worst." Which means planning for the complete destruction of the US, with 100 million or more dead, the 50 MMAs destroyed, all military targets destroyed and fallout everywhere. This is the only rational planning strategy.
Which is why I say the only real way to plan is to plan to not be in the country when it happens. If your rosy scenario occurs, one can always come back.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 21:24 utc | 75
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 21:10 utc | 71
I was thinking more the Seal Beach weapons lockers than the Coast Guard base. I agree the latter is not much of a target. Also, keep the fallout in mind, although theoretically that can be dealt with with proper preparation. The real problem would be the behavior of the panicked population, as the preppers keep telling us.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 21:27 utc | 76
@ whirlx
> And that is now needed,
> so NATO cannot be allowed to double down unpunished.
Boy, are they in for a surprise when they try what you described. At least, I think so. I recall a Putin quote more than a year ago about retaliation the likes of which the belligerents have never seen. It was the kind of oblique statement that didn’t sound like a bluff.
Agree we shall see shortly.
If the worst should happen, it’s been a pleasure reading MoA all these years. You barflies are great!
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 20 2023 21:29 utc | 77
Tried to make a summary of Military summary report but there's some filter not allowing some part of text.
Anyway, there's a lot of reshuffling of AFU forces going on. They have assembled some sort of new fist of 2 mech/1 tank /1 arty Bde in Gulyapole front (so far has been one of the more quiet areas). Also a lot of stuff redeployed in Kreminna/Kreminna forest front.
RU has also deployed a lot of stuff W and NW of Kreminna. Interesting to see who plans to attack. You'd think after repeated failures and real pain in Zaporozhye front, AFU is not in a position to attack large attacks elsewhere. It might be another meat grinder, just this time not in urban area like Bakhmut, but mix of fields and forests.
Maybe a planned RU push after AFU "wraps up" around Zap area. But Zap isn't concluded yet, for sure.
Also, the kamikaze tanks were operating south of Marinka, apparently they have been pretty effective in neutralizing trenches and taking them (no wonder).
You could question - why is AFU shuffling units around, RU not so much? They are desperately looking for weak points, trying new stuff, moving the better strength units to important areas. When overall strength goes down, more compensation is needed by shuffling stuff around.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 21:29 utc | 78
I am not in California. I am in a mountain area with a population density of about 30 per square mile.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 21:33 utc | 79
When Ukraine stigmatize, the Swedish
old company, Marabou producing chocolate cakes because they are
owned of global Mondelez, with some
business in Russia.But Marabou has
no business there,but they were picked of the SBU.
The result:, A bombthreat against the
Marabou industry, what the police must deal with. And if people don't
buy Marabou products, people lose their job, no taxes coming in, and
Sweden gives Ukraine billions of money, and 50 infantry vehicles, and
the Archer artillery.Ukrainians must be the most retarded and cruelest
people in Europe. That's Ukrainians
gratitude, they want more, next to be stalked is human beings,killing lists, the Maidan & Odessa,the fear
concept.
Posted by: Reader | Jun 20 2023 21:34 utc | 80
@ Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 20:34 utc | 66
The safest thing to assume is that every one of the fifty Major Metropolitan Areas and ALL military targets of any significance will be destroyed. Then look at the usual fallout maps. There is only one area - northeastern Utah and southwestern Oregon - which remains fallout free. That's where I'm going if Russia and the US start anything serious, assuming I can't get travel to South America.
Not to spoil your will to survive, a fallout is not really your problem.
In a target designation guidelines, there are non-military high priority targets such as New Madrid Fault Line, Wabash Valley Fault System, Clarendon-Linden Fault System etc.
That is a real issue when nuked in the USA.
But fear not, nothing of a such will be happening any time soon, I assure you.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 21:40 utc | 81
74
In the event of nuclear war, I would recommend either Chile or Uruguay as a destination if you can. They are part of the Global South (both literally and figuratively), and you don’t want to be in a country in the West or otherwise allied with the US. Their position south of the Equator means they are less likely to suffer the effects of radiation or nuclear winter. Uruguay is also self-sufficient in food, while Chile’s geography makes it very defensible in the ensuing worldwide chaos.
Posted by: Johnny Boy | Jun 20 2023 21:43 utc | 82
VP said specifically in his conversation with the reporters that he had no information about a strike on the dam prior to failure. He did suggest that explosives may have been planted at the base, underwater, and detonated but he had no information about this. About the seismic signal - it may be that the failure itself and the surge of water caused the seismic shock - depending on how it occurred and the geology of the site. I personally suspect (without any evidence) that the British with their Ukrainian pals may have planted explosives underwater - it's their style.
Dunno what planet you are on.....
BUT.....
The seismic signal was reported by at least 6 countries... Co-incident with the video of the explosion in the 0200-0300 time frame...
The Dam was under pressure due to inability to regulate outflows due to shelling damage inflicted by the UkroNazis to the gates, such that the pool was 17 meters higher than normal level(s).
I believe the detonation was the payload of a marine drone, similar to those used against Crimea and the Russian Navy. That there was no need for a submarine source given the attack happened at night. That the Ukies were the culprit given their warning to evacuate their forces given hours before the detonation.
Similarly, we now have the UK minister claiming the right to invoke article 5 should there be an incident at ZNPP. THe only way to stop this CRAP is to invoke article 22.... If there is an incident at ZNPP, we will create the Buckingham Crater, within 20 minutes, followed by the London Crater... The Admiralty Crater, the GCHQ crater and the RN crater....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 20 2023 21:47 utc | 83
Can we stop the nuclear doom porn, please.
You all forgot the Yorktown Naval Weapons station. I live upwind.
Rome AFB was a SAC base, likely still has the B-52s. Romulus NY is where the weapons are stored.
Enjoy catching up on US geography. San Diego and Bremerton, I am clue free.
The Russkies are not done until they take away the will to fight. That seems to be a DC issue unless Zelensky has a Mussolini moment. And the grind goes on . . .
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 20 2023 21:54 utc | 84
ran across a site with interview with Scott Ritter, claiming to be from a few hours ago, talking about Ukraine attack on Bahkmut (my bad spelling) going on NOW, I think this is not current. ?? why publish old stuff as new
Posted by: medo | Jun 20 2023 22:14 utc | 85
It's fake. He's dead.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 20 2023 14:09 utc | 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Yaroslav Timarov is the WaPo Bureau Chief for Ukraine. Like The Queen in Lewis Caroll's 'Through the Looking Glass,' he believes the most amazing things.
The talking head is not associated with appropriate body movements, although head and body move in this not so great video production.
Yaroslav must be getting close to Montauk, Long Island, the End is Near!
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 20 2023 22:16 utc | 86
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 21:40 utc | 80
Got a link for that fault line targeting?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 22:26 utc | 87
Posted by: medo | Jun 20 2023 22:14 utc | 84
Could be one of these rehash Youtube copier sites that replay crap just for the clicks. Got a link?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 22:29 utc | 88
RSH @87
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4wQetAOm-I
This is the site with the Ritter interview speaking of Bakhmut attack underway by Ukraine.... supposed to be a few hours ago.
beware.
Posted by: medo | Jun 20 2023 22:39 utc | 89
Richard Steven Hack @ ...
Just wondering do you drive ? Plus own some wheels ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 20 2023 22:41 utc | 90
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 21:27 utc | 75
So nuke the one part of the OC that is not closet NAZI?
Love the fact that you understand sovereign money but I would have to say you underestimate the evil of the OUSE. We will do laydown strikes on NPP's that are overflowing with spent fuel just to make sure the human race goes the way of the dodo.
Posted by: badjoke | Jun 20 2023 22:42 utc | 91
@Richard Steven Hack
re: Mercouris and treaty
I did read your posts on this matter last night.
And I did attempt to compose answers, but they appeared inadequate, and I currently seem to be lacking the time necessary for more.
In a few things I disagreed in your analyses.
But then as you said, too many white spots so there is mere speculation.
(e.g. how much meddling was going on behind the scenes between UKR and their supporters in the months of March, early April? Were the RUs surprised by the Bucha situation? When did they then learn of it, if so? Did it influence them long before Lavrov e.g. went public with statements you quoted.)
May be some other time. I did not in detail follow the Bucha information warfare.
The contradictions remain however, re: those satellite images, where stuff seems to have been missing, and the idea that Russian forces were they aware of war crimes committed would have tried to cover them up not let them rot, etc.
We know Zelensky publicly suggested that despite Bucha peace negotiations should go on.
All this is so muddy...but it should be sensible that peace could have been possible had the West been in some way cooperative. In ways they apparently were not already on Minsk II.
Peaking into Mercouris tonight, it seems he too has for now given up on the subject.
Posted by: AG | Jun 20 2023 22:48 utc | 92
IAEA representatives get hugely excited in filming defensive structures in the area of ZNPP.
https://twitter.com/OskanaShadow/status/1671214675621740544
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 20 2023 22:49 utc | 93
What's up with all the nuke porn gloom and doom, you people are sick...the best thing you can for yourself is practice stretching.....makes it easier to bend over and kiss yer ass goodbye.....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 20 2023 22:50 utc | 94
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 20 2023 21:54 utc | 83
I recall a number of military people pointing out that one SS-18 with ten warheads could take out New York - the entire state, not the city, that is, at least ten of the major New York cities.
This is a recap of current Russian nuclear capability. I have no idea if any of it is accurate, so take it for what it's worth. It does seem rather comprehensive. It's from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the guys who operate the "Doomsday Clock" which currently is at 90 seconds to midnight as of January 24, 2023.
Nuclear Notebook: Russian nuclear weapons, 2023
https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-05/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 22:51 utc | 95
@ Acco Hengst | Jun 20 2023 21:54 utc | 83
Can we stop the nuclear doom porn, please.
I agree, but people seem to like it here.
Also, it is a bit sad to observe how human calculus to survive works, too.
As if one can run away, or protect, as per 'Duck and cover' song.
Fallout shelters might work for a few days or weeks, but cracking the continent along fault lines and making it unlivable, is the aim of the deterrent. So that one can never rebuild.
That was a doctrine from 70s and is still actual, as probably one of the most evil thing one can think of, but very practical.
It is important to understand, and I repeat myself, but please bear with it, as in "xplein me like me 5":
RF will never nuke anyone first.
If RF is attacked, it will do a simultaneous missile defence and a deterrent attack, seen as one event.
They will not pinpoint every outback base and every B-29 or B-52 or even every silo.
I am not so sure that we will witness any of that ever, but certainly a possibility always remains. So, as with everything else.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 22:52 utc | 96
I seriously doubt Ukraine is going to exhaust themselves with their current offensive to the point that they are no longer capable of effective defence. If Ukraine continues to get nowhere with their "probing and shaping" they will eventually allow their offensive to fizzle out and choose instead to keep significant reserves intact.
I'm also skeptical of Russian capability to mount any sort of wildly successful riposte offensive of their own. Instead, it could be that increasingly the conflict will turn into a long range strike dual. A long range strike dual is not a favourable scenario for Russia because the true strategic depth (the economy and industry) of Ukraine's military is not actually in Ukraine where Russia can target it. It's in the US/EU/S.Korea etc. Russia may find itself in position where it can be hit but can't hit back (without widening the war).
Cruise and ballistic missiles will be in the mix, but I can't help think that Ukrainian strike volume and reach will come from one or more Geran-ish drone designs which surely must be in the works. Even if whatever Ukraine/NATO comes up with costs twice as much as a Geran that's "only" 50K each. A billion dollars will buy 20,000 of the things. The Lindsey Grahams in the West will gleefully allocate multiple billions to buy weapons that for once won't sit in warehouses but can be rained down on Russia as they come off the production line.
Of course, budgets can be allocated with the stroke of a pen whereas production lines take time to establish. It seems to me Russia is giving Ukraine/NATO that time. Maybe this year, surely next year, we'll see something Geran-ish from Ukraine/NATO.
Assuming Ukraine/NATO's missile campaign rises above pinprick harassment and is actually high volume (hitting Russian defence, oil/gas, electricity infrastructure) then Russia will have to abandon its SMO. The question will become whether it is abandoned by accepting a strategic defeat, or abandoned by escalating their effort.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Jun 20 2023 23:05 utc | 97
Posted by: medo | Jun 20 2023 22:39 utc | 88
Can't tell if that's a legit site. I suspect not. Sounds like it comes from an interview conducted elsewhere. The site allegedly was created in 2018, though.
The site where he usually does his own videos is U.S. Tour of Duty where he does his "Ask The Inspector" videos:
https://www.youtube.com/@USTourofDutyPodcasts/videos
He just did one two hours ago there:
Scott Ritter Extra Ep. 75: Ask the Inspector
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWAh4E_7c8k
And here is his official Youtube channel:
Scott Ritter @scottrittershow 70.2K subscribers 35 videos
https://www.youtube.com/@scottrittershow/streams
He just did a video there 9 hours ago:
Putin reveals abandoned Ukraine peace agreement | Kiev plans to strike Crimea with NATO weapons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0bYPJnd4EU
His Substack is here:
Scott Ritter Extra
https://www.scottritterextra.com/
His Telegram channel is here:
https://t.me/ScottRitter
Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 20 2023 22:41 utc | 89
Nope. Used to drive but haven't for many years now. Can't afford a car.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 23:07 utc | 98
Which is why I say the only real way to plan is to plan to not be in the country when it happens. If your rosy scenario occurs, one can always come back.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 21:24 utc | 74
But how will you collect your welfare checks?
Posted by: Numbnutz | Jun 20 2023 23:07 utc | 99
@ Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 22:26 utc | 86
Got a link for that fault line targeting?
No, I thought it is a well known fact and a doctrine.
I am sure there is some info on that - jstor.org is your obscure stuff friend.
But, I can tell you that there is a name tight to every Soviet/RF missile dedicated to a target. New Madrid named missile was pictured in mid 90s somewhere around Agapa, Kransoyarsk.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 23:16 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Zombie: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18436
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 20 2023 13:28 utc | 1