Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 19 2023 21:23 utc | 93
The next wave of the counteroffensive w/Scott Ritter (Live)
https://rumble.com/v2tx168-the-next-wave-of-the-counteroffensive-wscott-ritter-live.html

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 19 2023 21:51 utc | 104

young | Jun 19 2023 21:39 utc | 99
Your view of nuclear war is not only frightening but on some level, insane. The ones who die quickly, will be the lucky ones…..

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 19 2023 21:55 utc | 106

-> Paul Damascene @ 90
-> young @ 99
-> natokraine
Whichever side launches first will have a huge advantage in nuclear war.
I suspect that Russia has the West’s nuclear launch plans. I suspect the bear will launch just the West’s launch date to gain the first strike advantage, which is substantial.
No, not really. This is a gloom and doom unsubstantiated.
Russia will never launch first strike out of political and legal issues build in its doctrine.
Not to babble too much about, I have to do a cross-post from another thread where I do play a catch-up with honorable ‘natokraine’ commentate.
So, here is why:
Tuned to ballistic defense.
I claimed that RF has around 500 interceptors per 1 incoming ICBM.
And around 10 per each enemy’s military satellite.
That is based under assumption of a no-fail-target (there is a Russian synonym for that) and it is implemented within anti-anything doctrine that is rapidly evolving, ever since the first missile defeated ME-BF 109 and some Dornier few days later, over Stalingrad in 1943.
Idea behind was to use as much and everything in range towards each target.
Basically, shooting at ICBM since its launch and 2+ minutes ascent.
In 3-5 minutes one must identify, confirm, and fire on target.
10-15 minutes to impact is basically time to target ICBM all the way with longest range, long-mid range, mid-range, missiles in salvo.
Considering that ICBM has multiple war-heads and decoys, for each it must be factor 5.
Why exactly 5? I do not know exactly, but apparently it has to do with hit-probability calculus for each target. So acts as a 5 clusters in an AI algorithm calculating factors for deciding on a probability of kill.
Short missile flight times require that all applicable full domain sensors and surveillance assets must be linked to provide a complete and current air picture, preferably in real-time.
Russian battlespace manager differs from the USA, as it handles ICBM defense and an retaliatory attack simultaneously.
To destroy distant targets and above enemy’s territory a low yield nuke interceptors are used. The idea is to nuke every ICBM far away while ascending. Failing that, RF has enough far reaching weaponry to unload on each target multiple times. As a big Babushka set.
We are also thinking about those interceptions as a sync of the land based, sea based, air based, and space based anti-ballistic missile defense weapon systems, naturally.
So far, Soviets, then RF produced around 120 various anti-fly missiles of all sorts and types and ranges in thousands, adding to it is last 20 years of a pretty advanced missile tech being upgraded and developed. So they do have a stock.
At almost 10 years old, (it does take time to develop) – S-400/500 status was few years ago:
Russian Ministry of Defense has tested long-range missiles for anti-aircraft missile system S-400. This was announced on 04 April 2015 by deputy commander of the Air and Space Defense (ASD), Major-General Kirill Makarov.
According to the deputy commander, the range of the target was slightly less than 400 km. Full-range rocket launch was not possible due to the insufficient size of the test range, the general explained. He noted that now the range of the S-400 is 250 km. “With the adoption adopted a new missile, which is now undergoing state tests, the destructive force of the S-400 will be up to 400
kilometers,” – said Makarov.
And for S-500 upwards.
A large, very long-range (400 km) high-speed missile with active radar guidance, system had been increased to the limits established by the ABM Treaty demarcation agreements, it can intercept targets with velocities of up to 4.8 km/sec, corresponding to a ballistic missile range of 3,500 km. By some accounts the 40N6 has an estimated speed of around 4.8 kilometers (3 miles) per second – Mach 14. However possibly slower in a real world.
That was a few years before SMO, now there are no treaties and the world moved on.
Nobody knows exactly, and I think nowhere near has been disclosed any reliable fresh info, on how many systems are produced and are in live service, but I am pretty sure that it is enough to overwhelm any ICBM many times over, before it reaches kill zone.
And when you think that RF is eleven time zones and as same goes for Moscow, about the same level of anti-air shielding is for Vladivostok or Murmansk, and that is a lot.
As for satellites there is a two tier deter strategy – one ground based and one space based. I reckon around at least 10 missiles locked on each satellite.
I do not know how they would deal with Thurayas and other clusters of geo stationary and a deep space stuff.
Some EMP I assume would do, but I do not know really if it is even doable or needed.
For a low orbit there was a theory in 80s that even a simple rocket loaded with few tons of a 2 cm ball-bearing ordnance would deny orbits to the USA crucial satellites at some 160-400 km.
What is important to understand is that one of the pillars of deterrent is impenetrability of air-space above any civilian and military target and the other is that retaliatory strike is embedded in anti-ballistic interception.
Legally it is not a second strike.
How is that really working in practice, remains to be seen, hopefully never.
So yes people in NATO countries can sleep well, but just do not do anything stupid.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 19 2023 22:04 utc | 108

Posted by: young | Jun 19 2023 21:39 utc | 99
The USA will definitely hit nuclear plants with lay down strikes as its final fuck you to the world. And I don’t mean the ones in Russia where they don’t let spent fuel build up to major levels. I am taking like western ones that have 40-50 years of spent fuel onsite. The planet will be left dead.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 19 2023 22:17 utc | 110

The site seems to have had a crash just now…Got the following trying to post:

Your comment could not be posted. Error type: undefined
Error 503 Service Unavailable
Service Unavailable
Odnamrod Meditation:
XID: 281457711

Reloading the page got me this:

Error 503 Service Unavailable
Service Unavailable
Odnamrod Meditation:
XID: 1437792778

We might be overloading the site again.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 22:18 utc | 112

…
For months now, Ukraine has had time to carefully prepare “Ye Olde Greateste Counteroffensive.” I don’t believe for one minute that they came up with this “plan” on their own. They had to have had NATO help, probably including directly drawing up the battle plan.
…
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 19 2023 18:19 utc | 26
You say “… I don’t believe for one minute that they came up with this “plan” on their own. They had to have had NATO help, probably including directly drawing up the battle plan …” which reads to me like you are going by your gut instinct as you don’t have the necessary evidence.
I say more power to your gut instincts.

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 19 2023 21:23 utc | 93
Referencing a post that is referencing a post, but I’ve done worse. Yes, of course NATO, more to the point, the US, is trying to manage the entire Ukrainian operation. Problem is, that operation is more and more becoming one huge clusterfuck. Multiple weapons systems that require different training, ammo, etc and a shortage of competent mid level leaders, most of whom have been killed, as well as artillery disadvantage and no air support other than a few drones, and the whole thing is turning into a disaster. Except in the minds of the western true believers who choose fantasy over reality.
I remember that the original plan for the offensive was to put together a massive military force into a giant fist that would punch through all the Russian lines all the way to Crimea. One little problem – the Ukraine army is simply not capable of coordinating and expediting such a large operation, which was doomed to failure anyway with the resources they have. So what we see are multiple attacks all along the front with company and battalion sized units, bite-sized units which the Russians are destroying every day along the line of contact. Back to the original issue of NATO management of the war: it’s breaking down, and we are seeing the Ukraine army just throwing shit against the wall and hoping something sticks. ‘Those Ukies aren’t sticking to our plan, goddamitt.’ The fingerpointing has just begun.

Posted by: Mike R | Jun 19 2023 22:23 utc | 114

Be cautious! So many (rather lame) excuses it is suspicious, are they trying to fool Russia into a false sense of security?
They can all surrender but for everyone’s sake the goals of the SMO must still be reached, especially if NATO simply runs away. I hope Russia doesn’t quit.
Irrespective of the SMO ultimately (so it might not be any time soon) NATO and “elite” western politicians must not be allowed to simply walk away from a war they started or at least abetted. They have to feel some real consequences beyond the misery they inflict on both others and their own. The extreme belligerence must somehow have a direct cost know to and acknowledged by the west itself. Otherwise not much would seem to be achieved in the long run, at least from my (arguably limited) point of view.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 19 2023 22:27 utc | 116

That should have been “a direct cost known…” not “know”. I preview and proofread but still don’t catch everything 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 19 2023 22:31 utc | 118

So let’s try this again…
Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 18:59 utc | 41
I posted a link to the video on my Google Drive. This is it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qGoEsl-Pel-ZuRrHJejkrD4ZJgdAef4H/view?usp=sharing
All:
Latest Martyanov…
Interview with Aleks from Black Mountain Analysis…
ANDREI MARTYANOV: TALKS USA – UKRAINE & NAVY!*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p92ypJ-hLPY
Also on Aleks’ Substack:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/interview-series-part-4
Andrei’s Youtube channel…
About Combat Effectiveness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhLun5IObDY
Also, per my posts in the last thread, and this article at Antiwar.com (to which I responded with my earlier posts analyzing the timeline), we now know that the paper Putin was waving around was an initialed draft treaty from sometime in March, 2022, and was not any sort of final document. The one page Richard Medhurst showed on his Youtube video with Ray McGovern yesterday clearly shows that the two sides were far apart on agreement as of that document.
Putin Shows African Leaders Draft Treaty on Ukrainian Neutrality from March 2022
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/06/18/putin-shows-african-leaders-draft-treaty-on-ukrainian-neutrality-from-march-2022/

Since the treaty was a draft, it indicates that it wasn’t finalized and more details needed to be worked out.

They also reiterate the claim that Boris Johnson’s visit stopped the talks, when in fact the reason given by Putin and Lavrov had nothing to do with Johnson’s visit. Notice they are quoting a UKRAINIAN report on that visit which appears to be the sole source for the notion that Johnson’s visit stopped negotiations.

Then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv on April 9, 2022, a few days after Russia completed its withdrawal from the north. According to a report from Ukrainska Pravda, Johnson urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not to negotiate with Russia and that even if Ukraine was ready to sign a deal with Putin, Kyiv’s Western backers were not.
The Ukrainska Pravda report said at the time, Russia was ready for a Putin-Zelensky meeting, but two factors stopped it from happening: the discovery of dead Ukrainian civilians and Johnson’s visit.

In reality, the deal had been rejected two days before by Russia as a result of Ukraine “deviating” from the deal in matters related to the status of Crimea and military drills by foreign powers on Ukrainian soil:

April 7…
Russia says Ukraine presented ‘unacceptable’ draft peace deal
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-presented-unacceptable-draft-peace-deal-2022-04-07/
The Kremlin has said talks with Ukraine are not progressing as rapidly as it would like, and has accused the West of trying to derail negotiations by raising war crimes allegations against Russian troops in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.
Lavrov said on Thursday that Ukraine had presented a draft agreement on Wednesday that deviated from proposals both sides’ negotiators had agreed on.
Ukraine’s new draft, according to Lavrov, said the status of Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, should be raised at a meeting between the two countries’ presidents.
It also said Ukraine could hold military drills with foreign countries without receiving Russia’s permission, something Moscow disagrees with.
“Such inability to agree once again highlights Kyiv’s true intentions, its position of drawing out and even undermining the talks by moving away from the understandings reached,” Lavrov said, adding that the proposals were “unacceptable”.

After which, Putin declared the talks at a “dead end”:
April 12…
Vladimir Putin says peace talks with Ukraine at ‘dead end’
https://www.ft.com/content/6f6f74ae-56bd-45e7-ad40-51a87775f1a6

We reached a certain level of agreements in Istanbul, which stated that security guarantees for Ukraine . . . would not spread to Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas,” Putin said on Tuesday, speaking publicly about Russia’s military activity after a prolonged silence on the subject.
“We acted to create conditions to continue talks,” he added. “Instead, we faced the provocation in Bucha and, what’s most important, the Ukrainian side deviated from the Istanbul agreements.”
Now, “the security demands are one thing, and issues of regulating relations on Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas are taken outside of those agreements”, Putin said. “So we are back to the dead-end situation.”

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 22:37 utc | 120

Gilbert Doctorow’s website https://gilbertdoctorow.com/ has an interesting anx d alasrming piece today on the nuclear weapon threat.
Inter alia he points out that the Belgian and Danish F-16s being sent to Ukraine are nuclear capable:
“…Since the Russians are unable to determine what kind of munitions the “Ukrainian” F-16s will actually be delivering to the war zone, they must assume that they are carrying tactical nuclear bombs intended to be dropped on the Russian Army troop concentrations. The effect of such an attack could be devastating, hence the Russian threat to the air bases from which such planes are launched…”
It is because nuclear ascalation would be so dangerous that it is important to recognise that it is now a very real possibility: NATO’s forces, including the Ukraine’s, are under the direction of very dangerous, idiotic and amoral people.
Russia can be expected to act accordingly.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 19 2023 22:58 utc | 122

Mercouris´ summary spring 2022 peace negotiations
TC: 57:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qt9LCx_fzg

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 23:01 utc | 124

This the continuation of my reply @116 to bevin of the week in review thread where I wrote, “There are some aspects of the past that must be known by all humanity so they aren’t repeated.” During Putin’s SPIEF address, there was a pause to show those attending a rather well-known documentary film of a few of the Banderite/OUN atrocities committed during WW2 that’s associated with overall Holocaust history. Pepe Escobar posted that clip from the SPIEF video at his VK, where IMO it’s very important to view Putin’s expression and body language during its 4+ minute running time. This is the comment I left in response:
“It’s clear Putin took no pleasure in showing that film. But there are times when the truth of the past must be confronted and people reminded, which was clearly Putin’s intent. In his interview I translated today and linked in my comment below, Naryshkin calls today’s Nazis the “Euro-Atlantic totalitarian-liberal elite.” They are both the founders and promoters of the current OUN and IMO are just as despicable. Recall that last year Putin vowed to end the hegemony of that elite, and that’s the major reason the Rest of the World (RoW) is with him and Russia.”
I’ll add here some of the words Putin said after the film concluded: “How can you not fight this? We must fight this.” Since 2014, the West and its Propaganda System has worked very hard to deny they are leading Nazis–not just supporting–of the same sort depicted by history: A NeoNazi is still a Nazi.
I hope Naryshkin’s interview is setting the table for the Russian public for what will come next–Russia’s own counter-offensive. The context of what’s transpired over the last four days is what informs my analysis: The clear massive Ukie failure and losses that’s as genocidal as the film which was followed by the unveiling of the almost concluded peace documents that showed Russia’s willingness to compromise and the unwillingness of the Big Nazis not only to not compromise but forbid any further attempts to compromise until their goal of obtaining Crimea is attained no matter what the human cost as in WW2.
As Putin said: “How can you not fight this?”

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 19 2023 23:02 utc | 126

Would like to share thoughts with people who read the document:
Collateral Damage 911 in PDF format.
It is also about the fall of the Soviet Union.

Posted by: Junior | Jun 19 2023 23:08 utc | 128

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 19 2023 22:17 utc | 109
————————————————————–
Could you say that again in English rather than AI. My AI detector is not working today.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 23:14 utc | 130

Posted by: Miau | Jun 19 2023 19:15 utc | 46
chessmaster?
5d?
somebody who got messed up last 10 years with minsk 1+2 who calls his enemies at every opportunity „partners“ and who left 300 billion russian assets as gift for his partner is verily a chessmaster

Posted by: moon2day | Jun 19 2023 23:30 utc | 132

So let’s try this again…
Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 18:59 utc | 41
I posted a link to the video on my Google Drive. This is it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qGoEsl-Pel-ZuRrHJejkrD4ZJgdAef4H/view?usp=sharing
——————————————————————
Thanks Richard Steven Hack, I have problems with the stuff from Slavyangrad.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 23:31 utc | 134

@ sln2002 | Jun 19 2023 18:54 utc | 37
Time to re-run the war-games (again).
NATO more and more resembles the British Imperial citadel of Singapore.
Smoke and mirrors! (on the cheap, as far as expenditures on the ground go, although not of course budgets.)

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 19 2023 23:43 utc | 136

After which, Putin declared the talks at a “dead end”:
April 12…
Vladimir Putin says peace talks with Ukraine at ‘dead end’
https://www.ft.com/content/6f6f74ae-56bd-45e7-ad40-51a87775f1a6
We reached a certain level of agreements in Istanbul, which stated that security guarantees for Ukraine . . . would not spread to Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas,” Putin said on Tuesday, speaking publicly about Russia’s military activity after a prolonged silence on the subject.
“We acted to create conditions to continue talks,” he added. “Instead, we faced the provocation in Bucha and, what’s most important, the Ukrainian side deviated from the Istanbul agreements.”
Now, “the security demands are one thing, and issues of regulating relations on Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas are taken outside of those agreements”, Putin said. “So we are back to the dead-end situation.”
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 22:37 utc | 120
————————————————————————-
So, RSH what did you expect Putin to do, give it all away. And I do not accept your position that BoJo didn’t drop in to tell Zelensky to drop the peace shit ASAP. What’s more, the Clown was on a mission for Biden. I am surprised by your comments on this particular case (@120) and wonder if it is really, you or a troll using your name.
According to you, President Putin was just shamming the African Peace Delegation. We ALL know that there was NO final agreement, and that only general understandings were being worked out. But Russia did not tie Zelensky up and deliver him to Istanbul in chains. Zelensky came to a peace negotiation meeting to discuss the possibility of a “PEACE PLAN,” and then backed out.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 23:54 utc | 138

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 23:01 utc | 124
Just listened to Mercouris responding allegedly to Simplicius the Thinker, but in fact also to me since I sent them the same post I made here in the earlier thread.
The one thing he says which does bring Boris Johnson back into the picture is that Johnson telephoned Zelensky prior to his April 9, 2022, visit to say that the draft treaty was not acceptable to the UK. This I was NOT aware of; apparently the article was in one of the British papers and I didn’t see it in my Google search through March-April, 2022.
So perhaps Johnson was influential in persuading Zelensky to go back on what was agreed in the draft treaty. Nonetheless, this was not what was cited by Putin and Lavrov in rejecting the subsequent Ukraine draft which was presented in the first week of April.
Mercouris also discusses whether there was to be any agreement on the status of Donbass and Crimea being ceded to the Russians in that draft agreement. He believes it was not discussed at all. That does not jibe with the statements from Putin on April 12th. I quote again from the article on April 12:

We reached a certain level of agreements in Istanbul, which stated that security guarantees for Ukraine . . . would not spread to Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas,” Putin said on Tuesday, speaking publicly about Russia’s military activity after a prolonged silence on the subject.
“We acted to create conditions to continue talks,” he added. “Instead, we faced the provocation in Bucha and, what’s most important, the Ukrainian side deviated from the Istanbul agreements.”
Now, “the security demands are one thing, and issues of regulating relations on Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas are taken outside of those agreements”, Putin said.

So this clearly indicates that the status of the territories was indeed discussed and an agreement reached that any security guarantees that would be offered by Russia or other nations would not extend to those territories, indicating that those territories were in fact to be ceded to Russia.
Ukraine on the other hand reportedly wanted to raise the issue of the territories in a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin subsequent to this draft treaty. This is what Lavrov complained about. I quote again:

Lavrov said on Thursday that Ukraine had presented a draft agreement on Wednesday that deviated from proposals both sides’ negotiators had agreed on.
Ukraine’s new draft, according to Lavrov, said the status of Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, should be raised at a meeting between the two countries’ presidents.

So Mercouris is wrong on that point: the territorial status was discussed, if not agreed upon. I find it impossible to believe that Russia would not have insisted on Crimea being Russian and the Donbass territory being independent as per Minsk II.
Further, Mercouris believes that Putin wanted an early end to the war, citing a bunch of speculative reasons such that Putin was not sure the Russian economy would survive the sanctions, that the Russian army was not happy about fighting Ukraine, and that this was because the war effort had been prepared hastily as indicated by issues that arose during the first weeks of the war.
I call bullshit on all that. It’s pure speculation. Mercouris says he initially thought that Russia was engaging with Ukraine while expecting that the negotiations would fail, but that he has changed his mind about that and believes for the reasons he cited that Putin wanted an early end to the war and did not decide that only a military victory would suffice until August or later in 2022 when he ordered the mobilization.
Again, I call bullshit on that. I don’t believe the Russian General Staff prepared a hasty, limited war plan. I believe they were working on that war plan since spring, 2021, when the Ukraine moved half its army to the contact line and the Russians had to hastily move their forces into position as a deterrent. As Martyanov and other military analysts have said, the Russians don’t do half-ass planning.
Where Mercouris gets it right is when he says Putin pulled out this draft treaty in order to show the African delegation that this road has been traveled before and failed, and who’s to say US and British pressure wouldn’t be put on Ukraine to make sure it fails again. I believe that is correct. Putin may claim he still is interested in “negotiations” or a “peaceful settlement” – but as I’ve said before, none of that will benefit Russia’s security concerns vis-a-vis NATO in Poland and Romania or in Ukraine.
Mercouris does admit that this draft treaty apparently did not address a lot of issues such as “de-Nazification” which was one of the core demands Putin made at the start of the war. That the draft treaty does show that Ukraine would have been “neutered”, in Mercouris’ words, by a dramatic reduction in military capability and that the Ukrainian position was far apart from the Russian demand, shows that this treaty was not in an sense an “agreement”, but rather a “position statement” of both sides.
Which is why it was rejected by the Russians, especially after the Ukrainians then presented another draft, presumably after Boris Johnson’s influence.
Mercouris admits that there is “a lot of confusion” about the negotiations in March-April, 2022, which he claims is the result of media reporting much later. Well, he’s part of that since he and many others keep saying that the war could have ended in April, 2022. And in fact, there is no evidence of that, nor is there any proof that it was strictly the influence of the UK and the US that prevented it.
As I’ve said repeatedly, if Russia has ended the war under the conditions reported in these negotiations, it would have left Russia precisely at the same point it was before the war started, with the exception that Russia would control the two Donbass republics. That would have done nothing to alleviate Russia’s overall concerns and any “security guarantees” that would have involved the West would have been immediately used against Russia in some manner or abrogated altogether.
Which would have meant that Russia lost the war – or would have had to restart it in less favorable conditions.
And I don’t believe Putin is that dumb. I initially did not believe so, then in April I became concerned that maybe he was. Now I believe the opposite of what Mercouris believes – that Putin and his team always realized that the negotiations were doomed from the start and that he engaged in them solely to establish credibility in the eyes of the RoW.
In any event, this is how it turned out.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 0:08 utc | 140

132
https://babel.ua/en/news/90794-delfi-the-eu-cannot-find-the-frozen-300-billion-of-the-russian-central-bank-which-they-want-to-give-to-ukraine
“Sources of the publication say that the European financial authorities, despite its statement about blocking €300 billion belonging to the Central Bank of Russia, have still not been able to find these funds. The estimate of blocked assets was based only on the statements of Russia itself, so in reality they may be much lower.”
30 billion found not 300. thats some chess big brain

Posted by: hankster | Jun 20 2023 0:15 utc | 142

Today China & USA overwhelmed each other with compliments like best friends. Western MSM euphoric about the new old love.
Posted by: Miau | Jun 19 2023 19:15 utc | 46
You should (not) bother that much about the China/USA talks. If both parties really meant what they were saying than China has won it’s war against the USA.
Posted by: Tuk | Jun 19 2023 23:02 utc | 125
——
Well, I was eagerly waiting for China to clearly reply to Blinken:
“Well, if you really, really mean what you say (about respecting Chinese sovereignty) then immediately remove all your troops, advisors, and weapons OUT OF TAIWAN, send no more, stop sending diplomats, stop threatening us, and 100% let us manage one of OUR PROVINCES, or else you’re a lying fuck”.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 20 2023 0:32 utc | 144

Whilst there was a small possibility of a painful (for Ukraine) Peace Settlement spring of last year, the cost of unnecessary Russian blood, demands that Putin complete the Military task of paring Ukraine to the bone. At that point, Zelensky’s successor can agree or not.
Short of risking Nuclear War, NATO and the insane, belligerent USSA have neutered themselves.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 20 2023 0:38 utc | 146

@ Junior | Jun 19 2023 23:08 utc | 128
1) There are traitors in the immediate vicinity of the RF governement.
It is possible, but they have nothing to play in a decision cycle.
It is not that they will spill the water on the switch (there isn’t one) or trip Putin down the stairs.
All domain sensors are working 24/7 and radars too. People are operating those, but much of the detection, target assessment, pre-calculation stuff is happening automatically in tens of seconds, so to say.
From some older study paper, I forgot the link, but I have .pdf.
That is (some editing for brevity):

Each weapon has a health and status component and an interceptor component.
The health and status information is updated continuously for each weapon
to include readiness of weapon system, number of interceptors that are available, and current engagements of the weapon system. Health information is provided in regards to a resource’s ability to perform optimally. (For
example, the health data of a weapon’s sensor may include its current registration, alignment, and calibration information as well as information regarding whether its operation is degraded.) Status information provides update
information regarding a resource’s current tasking and availability also for future tasking. A resource may be on, off, or in standby.
The interceptor component allows the flexibility of capturing the different capabilities with different weapon configurations.

So any of those processes are independent and complicated and depend on a tight chain of professional decision making process. One cannot hide the ICBM from someone. Also one cannot say: “Please ignore this.”
2) The programs for intercepting the coming missiles were sabotaged so that they will fail.
Yes, also possible, if program would be coming on a floppy disk, as in ‘insert when ICBM’.
Software based combat models are calculated daily, targeting data weekly or a less in such intervals and when in peace mode. So right now, when it is all tense, it must just work, so debugging and such is done by hundreds of units handling interceptors’ input daily.
Just look at the conventional stuff flying into Ukraine in hundreds and thousands. It has to be programmed and target assigned daily.
It is virtual assembly line of a highest industrial grade. As for hitting ammo depo in Lutsk, so for deterrent assigned weaponry.
But please, do not fall for anything Bellingcat says – it is just a psy-op and a pretty bad one, made for illiterates.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 20 2023 0:42 utc | 148

young @ 99
I hope you’re mistaken about the proximity of a nuclear exchange. I wish I could feel more confident that you are.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 20 2023 1:08 utc | 150

fyi
disturbing possibilities here. to say the least.
intrepid readers, read on
G. Doctorow today:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/19/tactical-nuclear-weapons-latest-news-from-russia/
“…Last Friday when I published my selective account of the Q&A session with President Vladimir Putin at the culmination point of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum I omitted one important issue: how Russia will respond to the dispatch of “Ukrainian” F-16s from some air base in a NATO country into the war zone in Ukraine. I was considering remedying that oversight on Saturday morning when a comment from one reader forced my hand. She wrote in that Italy’s daily newspaper La Repubblica quoted Putin as saying on Friday Russia will destroy such a base in response. I responded on Saturday in the Comments section that the Russian President had in fact been evasive in his comment, saying only that Russia could destroy such a base and was now taking the issue under advisement.
However, yesterday evening’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show indicates that the Republicca reporter was closer to the truth than I. A patient and knowledgeable Russian colonel in retirement who is a frequent guest on the talk show explained that the Kremlin is now considering exactly with what means to destroy such a NATO air base, not whether to do it. And the likely means will be use of tactical nuclear weapons on a Ramstein or whatever NATO base is involved. We may say that Germany is placing itself in the bulls-eye of any escalation in the Ukraine war if it proceeds with the F-16s to Ukraine program…..
….the first F-16s scheduled to be supplied to the Ukrainian Air Force are from Belgium and Denmark, and are all nuclear-capable, which is not a necessary feature of these planes. Since the Russians are unable to determine what kind of munitions the “Ukrainian” F-16s will actually be delivering to the war zone, they must assume that they are carrying tactical nuclear bombs intended to be dropped on the Russian Army troop concentrations…..”

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 20 2023 1:26 utc | 152

Putin was not “fooled” by Minsk I and Minsk Ii. The fact of the matter is Russia still needed time, 8 more years, to be precise to modernize their military, to build their trade routes with Asia, (I may be wrong but isnt there now a major pipeline to China), and to feel defended enough to be able to deflect a NATO nuclear strike.
In the mean te, he had to act meek and humble. All this was clearly in planning stages before even the coup.
Those who think Putin is a fool, or fooled be western lied, need only to look at the flawless annexation of Crimea, including the capture of the bulk of the Ukrainian navy.
That was not executed suddenly after a night of brainstorming. Like all world powers, every scenario is gamed out constantly.
The taking of Crimea meant Putin knew exactly what NATO was up to. Anybody paying attention to Nato since 1991 could see by 2001 NATO was building up to take out Russia.
Further proof of Putin’s complete lack of delusion came in late 2015, when he started the Syrian support.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 1:31 utc | 154

The official US stance on Taiwan has been Taiwan is a part of China. It is stayed all the time by various state departments over the decades.
As in all things USA, you must watch their actions, not their words.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 1:42 utc | 156

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 20 2023 1:26 utc | 153
Doctorow is completely wrong. Russia has no need to use a nuclear weapon on a NATO F-16 base and certainly not on Rammstein.
First of all, the F-16s used in Ukraine will likely be flown from Poland, not Germany.
Second, Russia can use a conventional warhead hypersonic missile rather than a nuclear warhead missile.
Third, it’s likely that Russia would only need to fire one such missile to force NATO to stand down on using F-16’s. Either that or NATO will have to call an Article 5 meeting, and that will be contested by many of the nations involved, most particularly Turkey and probably several others, possibly including France.
This is especially true if Russia declares that any further use of F-16s will result in expanded attacks against “decision centers” or that Russia might consider using a nuclear warhead.
This is over and above the fact that Russia is likely going to have intelligence assets deployed near the F-16 airbases or via satellite which will be tuned to detect any deployment of nuclear weapons near these aircraft. Russia will use its alleged inability to detect such deployment in its favor in negotiations over the issue, but Russia is likely to be fully aware of any such attempt and will not be in a rush to attack a NATO airbase absent any such indication.
This is especially true if Russia allows the first F-16 deployments to enter Ukraine and be shot down by Russian aviation or AD.
This is what one gets from someone like Doctorow, who has zero military comprehension on the degree of “escalation dominance” that Russia has over NATO.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 1:50 utc | 158

I find it odd that Napolitano pushed the Trump is a Russian asset narrative so hard for three years, and now he is apparently quite open to giving Russian views of this conflict a stage, (something even more dangerous to a televised commentators career than denying Russiagate.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 2:00 utc | 160

@106 not really. There’s good ways to avoid and mitigate radiation damage. Some self sufficiency mitigates a lack of supplies.
No, one could come out way ahead after a nuclear war. Just need some balls and vision.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 20 2023 2:22 utc | 162

Roger true, also the second rotor provides much more lift. On the other hand, the engine(s) would have to be larger and more powerful, since the load is twice as large. And likely more fuel consumption so possibly shorter range. And higher weight. So there are trade-offs.

Posted by: David | Jun 20 2023 2:34 utc | 164

The Russian gas pipeline to china was delayed, expected construction starts in 2024. Answering a question i posed earlier.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 20 2023 3:01 utc | 166

Posted by: David | Jun 20 2023 2:34 utc | 164
Nope twin rotors are of similar efficiency to single. They are more complex to build and tend to require more expensive maintenance. .

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 20 2023 3:04 utc | 168

@badjoke 168
There was also the case of a Ka 52 crashing and killing its crew when during aerobatic manoeuvres one rotor blade actually hit the other set of rotors.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 20 2023 3:09 utc | 170

The same can happen with the venerable CH-47.
The fact remains that the KA 52 is an excellent helicopter. I believe that the US Army made a bad mistake picking the Tiltrotor over the Defiant. If the Army is really so eager to sacrifice agility and weapons firing arcs for a bit more speed and range, it would be cheaper to buy the V-22 Osprey. Hopefully; they will got for the Raider X.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jun 20 2023 3:24 utc | 172

The Ka-52 is a fascinating machine! In addition to the safety aspects as you outlined, the Ka-52’s lack of a tail rotor also frees up several hundred horsepower that can be put to better use – such as flying sideways or flying faster. Bonus!

Posted by: DiggerDan | Jun 20 2023 3:36 utc | 174

Posted by: dh | Jun 20 2023 3:30 utc | 173
I doubt he would agree, since he spends much of his time denying that he has any military expertise, and he frequently demonstrates that as by saying the Russian SMO was hastily planned. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2023 3:54 utc | 176

Andrei Martyanov (June 13):

…
In related news, Vladimir Putin met in Kremlin the so called “voenkors” and totally humiliated them.
…

Boris Rozhin (June 19):

Kremlin on the war correspondents
It’s an important element in getting information from the ground to the president. As you know, he has many sources of information, one of them is the dialogue with the war correspondents. The talk was very, very frank, most of it you have seen, there was also a short closed part. The President highly appreciates the dialogue with the war correspondents and will continue it. (c) Peskov

Posted by: S | Jun 20 2023 4:22 utc | 178

james | June 20, 2023 at 00:39
WTF?

Posted by: jose | Jun 20 2023 4:40 utc | 180

UWDude | Jun 20 2023 4:42 utc | 181–
Where were you “writing extensively about Russia under Putin elsewhere for well over a decade”? I’m curious; if those writings are still accessible, I’d like to sample some. Most of my writings prior to late 2020 are buried in MoA’s archives. I began my VK site in late 2020, but wrote copiously here prior to that.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 20 2023 5:02 utc | 182

Re: Charities
If anyone wants to help out the victims of The Ukrainian Civil War – then the best charity to support is International orthodox Christian charities (IOCC)
https://iocc.org/

Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 5:06 utc | 184

The German Newspaper FAZ takes reporting of Selensky’s “Sucesses” to a new level. Headline this morning:
“Kiev: No terrain losses in offensive so far”

Posted by: Marvin | Jun 20 2023 5:32 utc | 186

Sigh!
I don’t think it’ll come to a nuclear exchange simply because the US hadn’t already used it against North Korea or Iran, and you can bet the crazies in the basements were calling for it.
Posted by: moon2day | Jun 19 2023 23:30 utc | 132
The butt hurt is strong with this one! I’m pouring myself another drink to celebrate 🍷
@ james (not/original/2/bonus or all of the above, I’m covering my bases)
My music taste is more 70s English metal/The Saker vibe but every time I see those videos on Simplicius’ bitchute channel the song playing in head is Burn by Deep Purple. Wine or whiskey allegedly is great at removing ink stains. Why it doesn’t work on clothes or carpet is beyond me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCnebZnysmI
As for Putin, he is just a man albeit an extremely intelligent one. This man really believes in a just and peaceful co-existence with the West. That he does not act impulsively is the reason we are all still around instead of being space dust. The official Russian actions have been methodical, precise, deliberate and integrated to achieving an end game. Sure, the Russian have been overcautious to a fault, but looking at the death and destruction they are capable of, aren’t you glad? What he knew when, and what he did or didn’t do then is all projection and a waste of time. What he has been doing and saying since Munich 2007 is why I have been on Team Russia and believe there may be hope for humanity yet.
Cheers!

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 20 2023 5:51 utc | 188

Marvin,
FAZ has no sense of irony. Article further down has Ukrainian students living in Germany complaining how long it takes to get their monthly ~900€ tax free Bursury (from German taxpayers)
https://m.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/frankfurt/ukrainische-studenten-zwischen-buergergeld-und-bafoeg-18974391.html
Note – in Ukraine until 2021, 90% of earners made less than $500/month gross

Posted by: Exile | Jun 20 2023 6:06 utc | 190

Richard Steven Hack # 171,
Judge Napolitano is performing an important public service. He poses so called “softball questions” for the benefit of informing his audience by eliciting answers his viewers can understand, much the same as a judge helps guide complex expert witness testimony in a jury trial

Posted by: Willow | Jun 20 2023 6:55 utc | 192

The twin rotor concept eliminates the need of a tail rotor, there’s a video showing a KA52 making it back to base with its tail blown off.
So, to conclude no tail rotor means more power (up to 30%), less complexities, less weight, greater survivability.
But my only experience with helicopters was dangling out of the sides of UH1Hs and jumping out of Pumas.

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 20 2023 7:27 utc | 194

“Russia must make a move on Kyiv and decapitate Ukrainian political and military leadership now. They are very unpopular at this moment”
Nah let the various factions of the Ukrainian “state” devour themselves.
One thing is sure though : Elenski has a target drawn on the back of his khaki sweater.
Will he live to see 2024? Not sure about that…

Posted by: Nanker | Jun 20 2023 7:31 utc | 196

@Nanker | Jun 20 2023 7:31 utc | 196
Yes, at this moment it’s best to let them eat themselves, which they already do. Or follow Sakashvili’s path at the mental asylum, an accidental overdose, many natural options. However, speeches like budanov’s can’t be allowed ever again

Posted by: rk | Jun 20 2023 7:41 utc | 198

Ukraine would be called a failed state if the US were not propping up its regime. Vicky Nuland may be worried that Antony Blinken will change course. Isn’t that why she got herself a promotion in State Dept?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 20 2023 7:46 utc | 200