So the next move is going to be????
Good question on the surrenders.
Bs or a verified Phenomenon beginning to occur within UAF ranks on the front line?

Posted by: jpc | Jun 19 2023 16:45 utc | 4

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/18/kremlin-officials-vodka-alcohol-ukraine-russia-war-stress/
I’ve always had the impression that the Telegraph was an actual newspaper and not a tabloid. If they were, then this is just bordering on ridiculous.

Posted by: clueless | Jun 19 2023 16:58 utc | 6

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2023 16:40 utc | 1
Well according to Intel Slava Z, a brigade surrendered recently
https://t.me/s/intelslava?before=49002

Posted by: Mary | Jun 19 2023 17:05 utc | 8

…from News Sky
Ukraine may have temporarily paused counter offensive

Kyiv’s forces may have temporarily halted their counteroffensive to re-evaluate their tactics for future operations, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg said on 16 June that in his assessment “we won’t see an offensive over the next seven days”.
The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on 17 June that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as the command in Kyiv re-examines tactics. . . .here

…from Kyev Independent
Defense Ministry: ‘Difficult situation’ in Ukraine’s east as Russia deploys more forces

Russia has deployed more forces to Ukraine’s eastern frontline in its attempt to advance toward Lyman and Kupiansk and seize the initiative, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on June 19.
The situation in the region is “difficult” amid heavy fighting and intensified Russian shelling, but Ukrainian forces “do not allow the enemy to advance,” Maliar said on Telegram.
According to the official, Russia hasn’t abandoned its plans to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which is currently “the main offensive direction” of Russian troops.
Therefore, Moscow has concentrated “a significant number” of its troops in Ukraine’s east, in particular the airborne assault units, she added. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 17:18 utc | 10

Over a week ago the Jonas blog reported, and was mirrored on this site, that there were quite, “mass surrenders of Ukrainian forces taking place”.
This has been confirmed now and is being reported on many Telegram accounts as “news”.
I should also add that the Jonas blog was the first to talk about the “Salted Earth” plan by NATO to use the Zaporozhye Npp. This was reported in 2021, yes before the invasion. It was mirrored on the comments section in the Saker Blog too.
Jonas blog is now reporting the formation of a “free” Ukrainian army from those who have surrendered and defected.
Big news in the next few weeks coming!

Posted by: Jonas Blog Subscribe | Jun 19 2023 17:35 utc | 12

It has been apparent that a large part of what is being sent to Ukraine is subpar.
I feel sure that the people managing and overseeing (including Zelensky) this tragic affair were well aware of this situation.
So I am wondering why they felt that a failed offensive with great loss of life, was the best way to make this widely know.
Separately, and again, I feel the only party in position and with motivation to end this conflict is the Ukrainian public – the western powers and Ukrainian government have no interest to do so. Ideally, regular military would turn on the facists and their sponsors and end the event in a positive and constructive manner leading to a better future.

Posted by: jared | Jun 19 2023 17:44 utc | 14

Russian KA-52 helicopters destroy taxpayers’ money
https://t.me/voin_dv/3257
More destroyed ukrainian equipment
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/89576
By the way, the fucking NATO organization today announced that “NATO’s arsenals are depleted and must be restored as soon as possible.
At the same time, NATO opposes freezing the conflict and agreements on Russia’s terms.
War to the last ukrainian.

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 19 2023 17:54 utc | 16

Oryx surrendered. There’s no more opportunities to fake AFU tanks as RF tanks due to AFU only having Leopard and French AMX tanks left.
Re. surrenders. Zelly regime has began full mobilization of western Ukraine. The only thing missing is the Speech:
”Do you want total war?”
The country is on path to permanent splitting, Zelly lose control over lot of regions as fortunes of war grow worse.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 19 2023 17:56 utc | 18

>>Claim that Ukr. troops are faking breakdowns to avoid advancing…
Surely that happens to an extent, the issue would be how often. The Russians claim to have picked up some tanks that still had the motor running.
>>Ukraine may have temporarily paused counter offensive…
Word on the street (so to speak) is that they have figured out that charging in with armor just gets everybody killed. The latest thing is small unit infantry that has to go ahead of the armor. It slows everything down.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 17:59 utc | 20

I am deeply skeptical that sub par equipment is the big problem Ukraine is having. They just plain don’t have some of the equipment they need. Any time there is a Russian helicopter attacking ground troops or armor, it is not a fight, it is an assassination. The only solution is air defense or for the Ukrainian troops to not even be there.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 18:03 utc | 22

@18 eighthman
the partial encirlement at aadvikka is a primary candidate along with attacks from luhansk to Lyman and kupyansk are the primary russian offensive points.
Adviika is the likely candidate as ukraine has been pressing from to donetsk. Which indicates they’re looking to use up units from forward positions instead of withdrawing or letting them surrender. Very similar to tactics they used at bahkmut.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 19 2023 18:17 utc | 24

@jared | Jun 19 2023 17:44 utc | 15
re: It has been apparent that a large part of what is being sent to Ukraine is subpar.
. . .NYTimes…
In Rush to Arm Ukraine, Weapons Are Bought but Not Delivered, or Too Broken to Use

Some of the weapons sent to Ukraine by other countries have been unusable, and hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts paid up front have yet to be fulfilled.
Ukraine has paid contractors hundreds of millions of dollars for weapons that have not been delivered, and some of the much-publicized arms donated by its allies have been so decrepit that they were deemed fit only to be cannibalized for spare parts.
Ukrainian government documents show that as of the end of last year, Kyiv had paid arms suppliers more than $800 million since the Russian invasion in February 2022 for contracts that went completely or partly unfulfilled.
. . .As much of 30 percent of Kyiv’s arsenal is under repair at any given time — a high rate, defense experts said, for a military that needs every weapon it can get for its developing counteroffensive.
“If I was the head of an army that has gifted kit to Ukraine, I’d be professionally very embarrassed if I turned stuff around in bad order,” said Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
A recent delivery of 33 self-propelled howitzers donated by the Italian government provides a case in point. Videos showed smoke billowing from the engine of one, and engine coolant leaking from another. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 18:25 utc | 26

Oryx surrendering is a nice beacon, actually. It shows he sees there is no way Ukraine can win, and there losses have been catastrophic these past few weeks, and nothing he can do to paper over it… ..or in his words, “its just not fun anymore’

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 19 2023 18:36 utc | 28

Beating the War Drum led to “attaboy” Justin committing Canada to purchase F35’s. That is the plane that Justin canceled when he was first elected. So, now, to earn another affectionate pat on the head, as a true War Monger, taxpayers will need to scrap up $50-100 Billion to purchase a Proven Lemon, the flying garbage can, the F35.
All other equipment from Canada and Europe, sent to Ukraine, is end-of-life, worn out crap.
All-in-all it is a tacit admission that Ukraine Leadership was duped into the slaughter-by-consent of their young men.
“Hey kid, go fight that bigger kid. We got yer back.”

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 19 2023 18:39 utc | 30

clueless@6
It looks like a real newspaper but for 200 years it has been the organ of the British Tory party which has done more harm in the world-from Ireland to India to the cottages of the farm labourers in the west country to the terraces in the North where the factory workers lived- than any other paper, with the possible exceptions of The Times or the NY Times that I can think of.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 19 2023 18:42 utc | 32

Blinken, a hundred times or so, has said Russia’s “unprovoked invasion.”
…from Ted Snider at antiwar.com. . .
The US [in December 2021] did not make every effort to resolve the crisis diplomatically. Though Biden may have told Putin that the US was “prepared to discuss our mutual security concerns,” they were not. On December 17, 2021, when Russia delivered proposals on security guarantees to the US and NATO, the US rejected Russia’s essential demands for a written guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO and that NATO wouldn’t arm Ukraine to capacity with weapons, making it a NATO bridgehead on Russia’s border. The US didn’t just reject it: contrary to Blinken’s claim, they were not prepared to discuss it. Derek Chollet, counselor to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has admitted that the US told Moscow that negotiating NATO expansion into Ukraine was never even on the table, leading Putin to conclude “that fundamental Russian concerns were ignored.” Moscow responded with the assessment that the US and NATO had offered “no constructive answer” to Russia’s key security concerns.
https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2023/06/18/is-he-right-fact-checking-blinkens-helsinki-speech/

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 18:45 utc | 34

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 18:25 utc | 27
stale cockroach alert
dodig.mil | PRESS RELEASE, 25 May 2023

Inspector General (IG) Robert P. Storch announced today that the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General (DoD OIG) released a “Management Advisory: Maintenance Concerns for the Army’s Prepositioned Stock-5 Equipment Designated for Ukraine,” which highlights concerns regarding the readiness of Army Prepositioned Stock-5 (APS-5) equipment designated for Ukraine. The Army Prepositioned Stock (APS) program strategically positions sets of equipment, such as combat vehicles and weapon systems, worldwide to reduce deployment response times.
IG Storch stated, “The advisory released today determined that the 401st Army Field Support Battalion-Kuwait did not adequately oversee the maintenance of M1167 High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles and M777 howitzers in the APS-5 inventory. These deficiencies resulted in unanticipated maintenance, repairs, and extended lead times to bring the equipment up to the level where the DoD could issue it to Ukraine.”
While this advisory focuses on the condition of equipment identified for use by Ukrainian Armed Forces, the advisory also provides insights into larger [USEUCOM, NATO, CEGE] issues with the maintenance of all APS-5 [and APS-2] equipment.

centcom | APS-5 ‘a powerful, ready stock of equipment’, 16 June 2017 Kuwait

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2023 18:54 utc | 36

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 19 2023 18:42 utc | 34
I was mainly referring to the siege warfare of the battle won in France by Henry V.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Harfleur#Investment_and_siege

Details of the siege are not well known but seem to have followed the standard pattern of siege warfare in the Late Middle Ages. After the walls had been seriously damaged by the twelve great guns and other traditional artillery of the English siege train, Henry planned a general assault one month to the day that the town had been enveloped.

Afaik it was the English cannons that caused the breach that was memorialized by Shakespeare. Brass cannon is referred to as well in that speech. I linked to it in my post. https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/56972/speech-once-more-unto-the-breach-dear-friends-once-more

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 19 2023 18:56 utc | 38

https://t.me/+B6ixfOM5VkxhODQx
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51458
Vladimir Putin’s recent speech at SPIEF 2023 on Nazism in Ukraine attracted a lot of attention
As we remember, at the request of the president, a documentary chronicle was shown, which showed the crimes of Ukrainian Nazis on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR.
The video was so memorable that they began to translate it into English in order to show people in the West where the legs of the current Kiev regime grow from.
We know that quite a lot of foreign subscribers read us. We are sure that such a video will be useful for them.
Video – @ukraine_watch
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+B6ixfOM5VkxhODQx
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy, and Analysis, Expert Community

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 18:59 utc | 40

To surrender “en masse” would I imagine imply a large force. But “Mass surrenders” is perhaps sufficiently indeterminate in precision enough to be alright when used in commentary availing itself of some wartime hyperbole.
Even strictly speaking, a platoon is a unit of a certain “mass”, and if it surrenders in its entirety, well, I won’t quibble at calling that a mass surrender. As long as the details are available, for example “the mass surrender of 50 soldiers” or “the mass surrender of a platoon”, nobody is getting misled, and it would be just an example of the purple prose of reporting from the front. There is no lack of examples of that, lol!
But yeah, I agree that historically speaking, reading of surrenders made “en masse”, with no numbers provided, would to my ears at least imply the surrender of units at the regimental level or higher.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 19 2023 19:08 utc | 42

Mass surrenders?
What if the Jew’s Nazi gov’t in Kiev stuff the ‘soldiers’ with narkotics?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 19 2023 19:10 utc | 44

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 19 2023 18:56 utc | 39
Seems I have forgotten my Shakespeare and mistook it for Richard the 3rd. Well that’s what I get for not reading it for over 30 years.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 19 2023 19:16 utc | 46

When an Army Corps (~30,000 soldiers) or 3 brigades (10,000) surrenders as a unit ; then and only then is it appropriate to describe Mass Surrenders.
Pray for Peace
Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2023 18:56 utc | 40
————————————————
“However, groups of 20 or even 50 soldiers isn’t mass surrender.” Exile.
Whatever you want to call it, I will take it. That is 20 to 50 lives saved, and 20 to 50 that won’t be killing Russians. If these POWs are treated well by the Russian MOD, it may lead to many more Ukrainian surrendering and even defecting.
Pray for surrendering.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 19:27 utc | 48

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 19 2023 19:16 utc | 47
I hear you, and both being by Shakespeare they have commonalities. I also appreciated how the Blackadder series told the tale, lol.
Blackadder – Edmund kills King Richard III
https://youtu.be/PXbFgYzapPA

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 19 2023 19:33 utc | 50

A pause until more shipments arrive? I’m hearing mutiny in Ukraine ranks along the mechanized front.
Zelenski men are surrendering everywhere,
videos at different places along the front. Many different videos. Hundreds on film. Should there be a black parade?
There’s a special vid though, a senior zelenski troop sitting at a table with a big map, surrounded by Russians…
Changing tactics to dismounted ground troops only leads to deployment of antipersonnel mines and development of autonomous turets whether mobile or floating making lines even more brutal with EVERY failed assault.
What’s inside? the Canadian export confiscated mega plane heading to Nazi territory.
Ukrainians still are Not policing there wounded or deceased on battlefield. Don’t even see combat medics amongst the mechanized!! Where are Ukraines combat medics?
Only a couple zelenski infantry brigades left? remaining only support escleon
German supplied tanks removed iron cross replaced with same cross different colors, like Finlands lighter-color swastika flags
Many videos of zenenskiy snort problem seems real, but his connection is weak and not pure as his face would be numb on camera
if real stuff. almost positive zelenskis drug dealer has his ear. Giving freebies of columbian 93% pure, can persuade the fiend to peace strangely faster than a hooker can. Source likely out of Amsterdam.
Also hearing ukrainians mutiny, refusal to fight anymore with
tanks

Posted by: Merlin | Jun 19 2023 19:41 utc | 52

Has there ever been a NATO war or conflict that wasn’t led by the US? Therefore, NATO is nothing but a military arm of the US. Call it an alliance if you wish, but it is a military alliance that has only been used to fight US wars and enforce US foreign policy on nations that do not conform to the will of the US.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 19 2023 19:41 utc | 54

Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 19:34 utc | 52
Ukro has to attack, their job since 2014. No attack sounds like peace, US sad. Failed nazi attack still kills people, sells weapons, US happy. Macaron also killed some civilians today

Posted by: rk | Jun 19 2023 19:43 utc | 56

……I would look for a serious purge soon, hopefully of the neocons in the USA and NATO.….
Never happen, just review the last 20 some years of one failure after another:
Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Turkey, Hong Kong, kazhzakstan, and many more all abject failures – yet not the slightest housecleaning in Washington. Instead, those responsible for failure get richly rewarded

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2023 19:50 utc | 58

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 19 2023 18:41 utc | 32
He was also correct about :corruption in Ukraine, the dangers of German reliance on Russian energy, spot on about Biden’s administration and the merging of the rival golf tours, that’s why the administrative state hates and fears him.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 19 2023 19:51 utc | 60

However, groups of 20 or even 50 soldiers isn’t mass surrender.

Tell it to social media, it’s the citizen journalism version of glaring tabloid headlines. Citizen journalism has its place and given the pre-internet brainworms of “professional” journalism I’ve had to disinfest from my brain I’ll take citizen journalism and social media warts and all but that everything gets kicked up a notch for clicks and monetizing is something to always stay on top of, and it’s not easy. I would flag “en masse” across the board unless it’s an article about algae blooms and fish kills.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 19 2023 19:54 utc | 62

Kiev and the Ukraine was built and developed by the Soviets, say, Russians. So should be preserved, denazified, demilitarised, but still in some way preserved. But, London, or Berlin? Or, any other NATO capital? They can be knocked off, right?
I just spoke to few NATO citizens, they think NATO has better weapons, and Russia doesn’t. So, they can sleep well, but can they?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 19 2023 19:56 utc | 64

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 19 2023 19:16 utc | 48
The way to think about the Nuland clan and the constitutionalists is not as rival camps (The Duran’s take) but a LIC between the two, with the former firmly playing the role of the corrupt Junta. The unfolding debacle of the offensive, with its potential to collapse Ukrainian resistance across the front, has an effect on this insurgency dynamic similar to a government massacre. If the rumours are true about removing the saner elements deciding policy it suggests that the corrupt neo-cons can sense the shadows darkening around them.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 19 2023 20:00 utc | 66

Russia tries to take the areas they want, create a massive buffer zone (most likely unpopulated) between Lvov and Novorossiya and leave a completely failed and useless state to the West, that they will empty their pockets
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 19 2023 19:58 utc | 66
—
Will there be any “West” by that time?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 19 2023 20:08 utc | 68

Russia’s major focus is still on the eastern front, Ukrainian military says – CNN
Well, if the bug.ers know what Russia thinks…

Posted by: ostro | Jun 19 2023 20:13 utc | 70

From the Natzo standpoint, maybe the best thing that can happen for them is for “something to happen” they can blame on Russia, possibly trick Poland into sacrificing itself next, but declare to their constituents that the rest of Natzo must stand down to avoid global nuclear war.

Posted by: natokraine | Jun 19 2023 20:19 utc | 72

I can’t take my eyes off this war. The outcome of this war will determine the birth of a new multipolar world. The end of the neocolonial world order.
The Russians will surely go on the attack as soon as the casualties from this failed offensive and overall attritrion has reached a critical point. At least I hope so. For some reason I have a feeling the Russians are also waiting for something else. The EU is America’s greatest weapon against Russia, but it has been declining for some time. The last year has seen even more pressure on EU countries. To my senses, the Russians are afraid to capture much larger swathes of Ukraine until the imminent collapse of the EU.

Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Jun 19 2023 20:24 utc | 74

@ Merkava | Jun 19 2023 20:27 utc | 76
So it’s true then?

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 19 2023 20:34 utc | 76

Jmaas @ 23
“I am deeply skeptical that sub par equipment is the big problem Ukraine is having. They just plain don’t have some of the equipment they need. Any time there is a Russian helicopter attacking ground troops or armor, it is not a fight, it is an assassination. The only solution is air defense or for the Ukrainian troops to not even be there.”
RESPONSE: Agreed! “The Ukrainian troops to not even be there” is a more likely alternative than for the Ukrainians to come up with adequate air defense at the zero lines anytime soon.
General Surovikin has prepared the Russian air defense quite well. Each day of this recent Ukrainian offensive has allowed him and his command structure to fine tune their defenses even further at a tremendous cost to Ukraine and its Western backers.

Posted by: young | Jun 19 2023 20:46 utc | 78

kupkee @ 78
“Every country that manufactures arms is left with an impossible dilemma by sending them to Ukraine.
Showcasing the destruction of your “special killing toys” by the Russian Military doesn’t leave a good taste in your prospective buyer’s eyes. And blaming Ukraine for the failure of your stuff begs the question of why you sent them into incompetent hands, in the first place.”
RESPONSE: Good logic. No matter how good a weapon system might be, a combined arms scenario, including air defense, is needed to protect that equipment. The AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) just don’t have the ability to protect either its equipment or its troops at the zero line.
Russian General Surovikin has installed adequate failsafes to protect against any significant Ukrainian advancement.

Posted by: young | Jun 19 2023 20:53 utc | 80

Various news bits that I found interesting.
June 14. Russia’s Krasnodar Kray has issued 10,812 real estate certificates to former residents of Kherson Oblast. These certificates fully cover purchases of real estate property (both new and resale). 7215 certificates have already been used. (source)
June 16. First Belarusian company started exporting via the port of Mariupol. The company plans to reorient its entire export there. The port’s capacity currently stands at 3.4 million tonnes/year. (source)
June 18. Deep water route from the Black Sea to the city of Zaporozhye no longer exists. (source).
June 19. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agricultural Policy, 94% of irrigation systems lost their source of water in Kherson Oblast, 74% in Zaporozhye Oblast and 30% in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. (source)
(Could it be that the main reason for the destruction of the reservoir was to hurt Russia’s ability to grow crops in Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts?)
June 18. Vladimir Lyubarskiy, the 55-year-old mayor of Petrozavodsk, the capital of Russia’s Republic of Karelia, has announced that he is leaving his position to join Akhmat Battalion as a fighter. (source)

Posted by: S | Jun 19 2023 21:00 utc | 82

>>Ukraine going on the defensive does not fit anywhere and at any point in the USA plans.
I think it is a culture thing. We are an optimistic people and we don’t go on the defense.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 19:34 utc | 52
“I think it is a culture thing. We are an optimistic people and they (our Ukrainian proxy tools) don’t go on the defense.” Fixed it for you.
Even strictly speaking, a platoon is a unit of a certain “mass”, and if it surrenders in its entirety, well, I won’t quibble at calling that a mass surrender.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 19 2023 19:08 utc | 43
The surrender of a platoon is telling. It means that everyone in the unit has to agree to this. Maybe not hard if the unit was conscripted from a Russian speaking region. There is always theconcern that someone in the unit is a Nazi crazy who will turn them in, and they will be shot. I’ll be more heartened when AFU troops start fragging their officers, and tank commanders turn their guns on those Azov regulators, or whatever they are called.

Posted by: Mike R | Jun 19 2023 21:04 utc | 84

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 17:18 utc | 10
The ISW is a pro-Banderite Ukraine-friendly rag of an outfit, last I heard. Paused the counteroffensive. LOL

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 19 2023 21:07 utc | 86

DeathToAmerica @ 75
“I can’t take my eyes off this war. The outcome of this war will determine the birth of a new multipolar world. The end of the neocolonial world order.
The Russians will surely go on the attack as soon as the casualties from this failed offensive and overall attritrion has reached a critical point. At least I hope so. For some reason I have a feeling the Russians are also waiting for something else. The EU is America’s greatest weapon against Russia, but it has been declining for some time. The last year has seen even more pressure on EU countries. To my senses, the Russians are afraid to capture much larger swathes of Ukraine until the imminent collapse of the EU.”
RESPONSE: You are correct, “the Russians will surely go on the attack as soon as the casualties from this failed offensive and overall attrition has reached a critical point.”
I agree, the Russians are waiting for something else. During the wait, the AFU is providing Russia with invaluable battle field experience. General Surovikin and his command structure are gaining invaluable experience at the cost of Ukraine and the West. Perhaps this is part of why the Russians are waiting on their offensive.
I don’t think Russia wants the Western part of Ukraine. The peoples there are not Russian speaking and would cause Moscow too many problems. After the war is over, these defeated and destitute peoples will be begging Russia to include them into the Russian Federation. Yet, Russia will refuse.
Most of Ukraine’s wealth is in the East. I think Russia will take Odessa and Kharkiv. Anything beyond the Dnieper River will be too much of a problem for them.

Posted by: young | Jun 19 2023 21:10 utc | 88

…
For months now, Ukraine has had time to carefully prepare “Ye Olde Greateste Counteroffensive.” I don’t believe for one minute that they came up with this “plan” on their own. They had to have had NATO help, probably including directly drawing up the battle plan.
…
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 19 2023 18:19 utc | 26

You say “… I don’t believe for one minute that they came up with this “plan” on their own. They had to have had NATO help, probably including directly drawing up the battle plan …” which reads to me like you are going by your gut instinct as you don’t have the necessary evidence.
I say more power to your gut instincts.
Here’s what Scott Ritter says in regards to what he sees on the battle field based on his experience.
In this episode (13th June) from @40:35 (for about 13 mins) Scott lays out his experience of the planning process for the attack on Baghdad during the Iraqi War, and then applies his experience to Ukraine to highlight the mistakes in Ukrainian planning.
The next wave of the counteroffensive w/Scott Ritter (Live)
https://rumble.com/v2tx168-the-next-wave-of-the-counteroffensive-wscott-ritter-live.html

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 19 2023 21:18 utc | 90

unimperator @ 66
Stoltenberg just said “Nato arsenals are devastated”. They are looking a way to dump this thing.
What is the game now about? It’s not about taking Crimea or winning. The game has now morphed into the game of “hot potato”.
RESPONSE: I am laughing at your use of words of “hot potato” game. Agreed, soon no one in the West except the USA will want to be holding the “hot potato” of Ukraine.

Posted by: young | Jun 19 2023 21:23 utc | 92

A Telegram post on Slavyangrad showed a video of many military age men enjoying themselves in the open in Lviv, which confirms the Ukie government predominant use of men from eastern and central Ukraine (as well as the ethnic Hungarians) to conserve their Banderista men.
The Russians need to go all the way to Poland and clear the Banderista scum out, otherwise they will never have peace in Ukraine.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 19 2023 21:27 utc | 94

As ever, a masterpiece of laconic understatement; today’s ‘clobber list’ from the Russian Defence Ministry: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12470788@egNews

The Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range sea-based high-precision weapons strike against foreign-manufactured military hardware storage sites.
All the assigned targets have been neutralised. The goal of the attack has been reached.
During the day, the most active AFU offensive attempts were in South Donetsk and Donetsk directions.
In South Donetsk direction, as a result of competent and self-sacrificing actions of the Vostok Group of Forces units, aviation and artillery, three attacks by AFU combined units have been repelled close to Vremevka salient.
The enemy losses were one tank, 12 armoured fighting vehicles, as well as a foreign-manufactured combat engineer vehicle.
In addition, two enemy attacks have been repelled, during which two tanks, 10 infantry fighting vehicles and two armoured fighting vehicles have been hit near Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were over 100 Ukrainian servicemen, three tanks, 10 infantry fighting vehicles, 14 armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, and D-20, Msta-B and D-30 howitzers.
In Donetsk direction, active actions of the Yug Group of Forces have successfully repelled four enemy attacks close to Pervomayskoye, Petrovskoye and Staromikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were over 340 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, as well as D-20 and Msta-B howitzers.
One ordnance depot of the AFU 5th Assault Brigade has been destroyed near Ivanovskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In Kupyansk direction, as a result of the strikes, launched by Army Aviation, artillery and the units of the Zapad Group of Forces, the actions of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been prevented close to Timkovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 45 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system.
In Krasny Liman direction, aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces have hit enemy units near Kuzmino, Makeevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Serebryansky forestry.
The activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been disrupted close to Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Chervonaya Dibrova and Kremennaya (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 105 Ukrainian servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured fighting vehicles, two pickup trucks, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers.
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were over 40 Ukrainian servicemen, four motor vehicles and one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 93 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 102 areas.
Two artillery depots have been hit: the AFU 1513th artillery ammunition depot and the 65th Mechanised Brigade close to Zaporozhye.
Air defence facilities have shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).
5 HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles have been also intercepted.
In addition, 14 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down close to Mikhailovka, Pyatikhatka, Pologi (Zaporozhye region), Kirillovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Nikolayevka, Zmiyovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Staraya Zburyovka (Kherson region) and Velikiy Vyselok (Kharkov region).
In total, 444 airplanes, 240 helicopters, 4,700 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,192 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,125 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,163 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,047 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Interesting that the opening sentence refers specifically to “a long-range sea-based high-precision weapons strike against foreign-manufactured military hardware storage sites” followed by speculation in some Western MSM sources about a pause in Ye Olde Merrie Springe Offensive; now I wonder why that might be…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 19 2023 21:34 utc | 96

I don’t purport to have any special insights regarding Russia’s next actions, but a few considerations:
* I’ve noticed two overlapping domains on which observers can be over focussed:
1. the military domain
2. Ukraine
One might ask if the overall picture of battlefield action & likely future developments would look different if we saw 1. and 2. as embedded within a global multi-dimensional conflict–geopolitical, geoeconomic, cultural, ideological, technological, industrial/material, energetic, demographic–whose most kinetic locus was Ukraine.
Possibly the Russian strategic braintrust sees itself as having destroyed at least 3 UKR armies, but has always husbanded its resources for the day when conflict with NATO becomes direct. Would you want to fight NATO on the Polish border or from within the kill zones of SE Ukraine, right on RF supply lines, and out of reach of NATO’s air force?
Many current Russian strategies could be seen as the Judo/Sun Tsu version of strategies NATO has publicly announced: financial warfare; de-industrialization; attrition; destabilization of internal support; geopolitical isolation. How’s all that going so far?
Another strategy that the West announced, and which Russia is familiar with, is the post-Russian victory ‘stay behind,’ terrorist insurgency. It seems cold blooded but with each passing month the mobilization potential for this insurgency is not just being destroyed but its survivors are very likely to have hard questions for the forces responsible for sending them into meat grinders. Further, for the post-defeat insurgency to work, the European powers will have to have both the will and the resources to remain in a state of war.
In this context, it seems as if the demilitarization, deindustrialization, demoralization, deNazification, deglobalization and deWestification of the adversary could continue for at least another winter. As one of the options RF is considering.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 19 2023 21:38 utc | 98

A Telegram Slavyangrad post also showed the huge benefit of having two main rotors on the Ka-52 rotating in opposite directions – you don’t need a tail rotor to remain stable. With only one main rotor you need the tail rotor to offset the rotation of the main rotor, so you lose the tail rotor and the helicopter goes into an uncontrollable death spin. So the Ka-52 can survive losing its tail fin, while the Western helicopters cannot making the Ka-52 much more survivable in a battle situation.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 19 2023 21:40 utc | 100