Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 18, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-144

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Doing business w/Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland is a death sentence:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the
Posted by: Doim | Jun 18 2023 20:07 utc | 79
Not to belabor the point, but some chatter about Vic (Sid Vicious) Nuland becoming Second in Command at the State Department – a promotion for part loyalty.
Yet, correct me if I am wrong but isn’t she starting to look a lot like Hermann Goring?

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 21:27 utc | 101

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 21:10 utc | 94
Indeed, absolutely correct. Ukraine is just the first of the “military-technical measures” Russia promised. There may be others, although I think establishing a western Ukraine Military District will address much of the problem, as will the Belarus measures. Russia is essentially building an “Iron Curtain” from the Black Sea to the Arctic.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 21:30 utc | 102

The (((cunt))) Nuland and Blackrock are hand and in hand in this mess
The (((Fink))) has AI perfected
Ukraine and (((their))) new silk road
When will you people start realizing this fact?

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:34 utc | 103

@kupkee | Jun 18 2023 21:27 utc | 102
“…isn’t she starting to look a lot like Hermann Goring?”
Personality-wise, yes….but so didn’t Madeline Albright

Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 18 2023 21:36 utc | 104

@unimperator | Jun 18 2023 21:07 utc | 93
Zelensky asks the west $400 billion to become the “energy hub” for Europe.
Okay. But 10% for the big guy…

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Jun 18 2023 21:39 utc | 105

Well, whatever the “result” of this African delegation visit in Ukraine and Russia, one thing has probably been made crystal clear. There is no possibility to negotiate with US proxy Kiev regime and RU has made their case clear to non-west world. Which is another diplomatic achievement in itself.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 15:49 utc | 31
This is the correct conclusion. And it will be used to make this case to the non-west world who can/will look on the conflict as avoidable.
@RSH
You’re still assuming that what you think Putin should do and what you think Putin should achieve is both what he wants and that he believes this is the way to get it. You do so against all evidence of his personality and behavior, including years of trying to avoid this war.
It does need to be released, or I’d like it to. But it can be released to people that matter and that ain’t us. I would be deeply surprised if Putin was waving around a fake. That would be completely out of character.
Nor did he say it was the final deal. It was evident that both sides were negotiating in good faith. That document was at the point of an approved draft for higher levels to review and amend before going into more documents. So no one should assume that it was “the” deal. Besides, we’ve only seen part of it. It would have been a deep embarrassment for the US at that point in time. That’s why Biden/Johnson spiked it.
The euro leader trips during that time likely were, as reported, them telling Zelensky to do a deal. Everything since then is squarely on Biden/Johnson, including the hardened attitude of Putin.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 18 2023 21:40 utc | 106

@medo
Asking, has anyone heard any news regarding Gonzalo Lira? All I know is that he is in prison … for years. I presume that is settled. Has he had any contact on the outside?

[…] According to Gonzalo Lira, Sr., the U.S. Embassy in Kiev held a video conference with his captive son on around May 23. He initiated contact with the embassy to ask them to work towards his son’s release, but was told only that his son had been provided a defense attorney by Ukrainian authorities.
When Lira Jr. protested the attorney appointed to him, he was offered a list of other lawyers to choose from, according to the embassy. Presumably, they were all public defenders.
Meanwhile, the State Department has refused to publicly discuss the US citizen’s arrest by a government whose employees are subsidized by US taxpayers. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller refused to answer a question by reporter Liam Cosgove on whether the U.S. was working for Lira’s release. […]
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/06/01/father-gonzalo-lira-american-jailed-in-ukraine-imprisonment/

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 18 2023 21:42 utc | 107

@RSH 88
@karlof1 94
thx for both
* * *
I guess we will all check the chronology now 😉
If there is in fact enough info out there, I dont know (who said when what exactly?)
I assume a Jacques Baud could also have some additional insight.
Ought to try and ask him…
The Aegis stuff, the ABM sites in Western Europe, but even more so (see also Steven Starr for that) the US SSBNs, the clandestine bomber and Cruise Missile operations and all that strateigc threat – they all were included in the bigger picture, see the Dec.21´ proposals, which Ukraine was only a part of.
Both UKR and the other things (McGovern et. al.) have to be treated separatly but simultaneously.
It is easier for Moscow to do something about Ukraine harbouring NATO troops than about the US Navy commissioning new Columbia-Class SSBNs and refitting their missiles.
Not to speak of the Pentagon personnel overlooking all these steps. How change THOSE minds?
That´s a long-shot, if at all.
But I repeat myself.

Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 21:42 utc | 108

The cunt (((Nuland))) knows just like in Amerika how they can manipulate people to become docile.
They want the same in a long term goal for the Russian Federation.
Believe it or not people, (((they))) took the communist manifesto into new heights
Amerika as I know as a child is completely insane today.
I grew up where you could bring a gun in a school and teachers taught you how to use it.
Today teachers decide if your a man or a woman.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:44 utc | 109

Bob@101….both sides will have open comms channels to use, they are in contact with each other. How do you think they clear the dead, exchange prisoners? The Russian will be giving them plenty of opportunity to surrender….they are brothers after all. Imo, President Putin doesn’t need media trickery, or as western MSN does propaganda, truth be like that.
Cheers M
In

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 18 2023 21:44 utc | 110

medo@90….theres an old saying, “no news, is good news”
My fear, Gonzalo is being held somewhere Russia might consider a target……let’s hope not.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 18 2023 21:49 utc | 111

When you point out jewish control they laugh
When you point out jewish control regarding the holocaust they take attention
…….

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:49 utc | 112

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 17:42 utc | 50
——————————————————-
When you can print your own money and sale your debt on the world market, you don’t have to worry about a minor war debt.
Posted by: Ed | Jun 18 2023 18:33 utc | 59
When you can print your own money and sale your debt on the world market, you don’t have to worry about a minor war debt.
Posted by: Ed | Jun 18 2023 18:33 utc | 59
—————
Ed; de-dollarization ends step 2
Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 18:38 utc | 60
Exile – precisely. Hypothecation, rehypothecation – the pledge without delivery or possession of title. U.S. dollars and their debt derivatives just had the “Iron Pledge” removed by the U.S. warmongers.
By confiscating Russian money in Western Banks, every other nation on the planet must get their liquid assets away from Western banks. And it is ongoing today.
“I’ll show you Putin…I’ll cut my own throat.”

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 21:51 utc | 113

@medo
Seems like the Chilean embassy is working for Gonzalo’s release: https://youtu.be/l4gzsjdLo9U?t=2241

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 18 2023 21:53 utc | 114

Nothing will ever be done until you’re shackled.
You’re almost there Amerika.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:56 utc | 115

Gringo@113
The America you grew up in was seen through the eyes of a child. Given your obviously limited ability to consider ideas you didn’t already agree with, all that’s changed is you are being sold a different narrative now.

Posted by: Brautigan | Jun 18 2023 21:58 utc | 116

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 18 2023 21:13 utc | 97
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2017/03/29/the-russian-artillery-strike-that-spooked-the-u-s-army/
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2016/07/20/mass-fires-vs-precision-fires-on-the-battlefield-of-tomorrow/
Not about Georgia, but shows that years before the SMO the West were more than aware of Russian recce strike anti-armour capabilities delivered by MLRS platforms. Note also the quotes about the increased drone capability and ECM/ECCM capabilities.
Re: the Ka-52 capabilities, again known well before the SMO
https://www.globaldefencemart.com/news/Ka-52M-helicopters-to-interact-with-drones
https://defenceview.in/2021/08/29/western-tanks-in-danger-russian-ka-52m-helicopter-gets-new-missiles/

Posted by: Milites | Jun 18 2023 21:59 utc | 117

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 18 2023 13:54 utc | 4
Lol. Oh come on man! Laughable nonsense. Did you investigate that channel? A US-based toy shop for gun boys til 6 months ago when it changed (got co-opted probably by payment) into anti-Russian propaganda. Not “news” just a video mash up with superimposed fantasy subtitles. How could some twobit channel be the only one to be revealing such news?. It would be in a parliamentary press release if true. Write to Canberra and ask if true! Peter Hartcher would headline it in Fairax Media. This is patent lies. Aus is hardly likely to give away 44 planes in such a large package to a losing Ukraine effort, and train hundreds of pilots. Lol.
You see, many in the rest of the ignorant world use the name Australia as some far distant land that nobody will check up on, like “Crocodile eats grandmother for breakfast in 7-11 store in Darwin”.
Come on man, check your sources before dumping such shit on MoA.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 18 2023 22:00 utc | 118

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 18 2023 20:40 utc | 85
I respect your perspective. Yet,
1. Governments have an interest to keep liabilities smaller than actual, and often not recorded at all. There are lots of “off-balance sheet” black budget items, including in the accounts of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Wars in particular get a lot of off-balance sheet funding, but this is still debt, formally recorded or not.
2. In reviewing the Balance Sheets of Bankrupt Businesses, I always found the Liabilities listed were correct or more, never less. And Assets, without exception, were less, most often 10 to 30 cents on the dollar.
Therein is the shell of the mighty USSA facade.
Every U.S. dollar is a liability, a claim, on something priced in U.S. dollars.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 22:05 utc | 119

Further to
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 18 2023 13:54 utc | 4
Found this slightly supportive speculation but the video channel has made up the rest. Mind you, the Defence Post is also Gvt propaganda arm to keep Washington and Kiev happy. Zelensky asks everyone for everything. What’s new.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/13/ukraine-australia-f18s/

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 18 2023 22:09 utc | 120

The America you grew up in was seen through the eyes of a child. Given your obviously limited ability to consider ideas you didn’t already agree with, all that’s changed is you are being sold a different narrative now.
Posted by: Brautigan | Jun 18 2023 21:58 utc | 117
You have no idea about my life. What ideas or ideals you talking?
Jewish ideas and ideals?
You are a fuckng idiot!
My only wish in life is, I wish the holocaust was real, we wouldn’t have to deal with your ideas and ideals. Most of of you would be dead.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 22:10 utc | 121

Suresh | Jun 18 2023 21:13 utc | 97
to f-16 and f-18 throw in swede grippen…..
the on launch base support for these old (1960’s design) west airplanes is roughly 40 per aircraft on the base…. 1/4 of them need strong time on the exact jet, and the rest specialists in broader support equipment and servicing…
then you need a river of natostan spec’ed jet fuel, and a large hill of ordnance, likely each donated jet by country has different ordnance, some of it no good for air to air and most neglectful of close support to ground forces….
then a mountain of spare parts: the current us models being much advanced over the donated! and not to forget 3 spare engines for each 10 donated old aircraft!
finally, if you were around the us army when the usaf decided to walk from the a-10 you would feel those 3 fast moving one pass are low accuracy jets won’t be much help for the ukraine grunt being shelled from 3 sides…..
did i mention runways you can jog on barefooted!
and w/o high end air superiority foghters in masses………
the comic in kiev neds to stop dreaming!

Posted by: paddy | Jun 18 2023 22:16 utc | 122

AG | Jun 18 2023 21:42 utc | 109–
Thanks for your reply. IMO, there are other players that must be considered and most are entering or are already in dire straits as the latest economic news from Germany/EU depicts that RT featured two days ago and I posted to my VK. This short excerpt is loaded:

“Germany cannot afford to pay more money into the EU budget, Finance Minister Christian Lindner told the Die Welt newspaper on Friday. Although Germany is the bloc’s largest contributor, it has been forced to make cutbacks as its economy contracts.
“In view of the necessary cuts in our national budget, we are currently unable to make any additional contributions to the budget of the European Union,” Linder told reporters in Brussels, adding that other member states have come to the same realization.

I just got a note from Dr. Hudson who I shared that news with, and he replied that the EU is now a “dead zone”. The implications for the entire colonial structure the Outlaw US Empire has erected over that last several decades are immense as it will soon begin to fracture. Forget about contributing 2% of GDP to NATO. The current FTX will be one of NATOs last. Another consequence that will occur at some point is the demise of the Eurozone as European nations revert to their national currencies. That in turn will have a big impact on the Empire’s ability to support its European bases as the euros it holds will become worthless and its dollars will be unwanted as the dollar’s utility bombs. By 2030, the Big Picture will look very different from today.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 22:28 utc | 123

Posted by: Brautigan | Jun 18 2023 21:58 utc | 117
You better watch out, Ernst Zundel prophesy might come true.
You’re over bounds with your jewish ideas and ideals….

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 22:28 utc | 124

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 19:08 utc | 67
“They certainly planned for AFU winning and smashing RU …”
It’s difficult to believe they were ever that optimistic. There are plenty of senior military figures in the UK, Germany, the US, and recently Poland, who have expressed doubts on the military front all along. I don’t believe, for instance, that such as General Vad would have spoken out had there not been a substantial body of informed opinion in Germany behind him.
The main goal has been accomplished. Germany, and the EU with it, has been firmly moved into the Western camp. That was the Trump/Grenell aim and it is now met. Any further ambitions Washington and Berlin/Brussels had of destabilising or breaking up the RF were frustrated by the failure of the sanctions war. Military defeat of Russia was never expected, direct NATO involvement or not.
Might not an alternative explanation be that they know very well the Ukrainians will be defeated, but are gearing up to continue supplying remnant Ukraine with weapons after that defeat?
This is consistent with what I believe to be the original scenario hoped for in February last year. A quick defeat of Ukraine followed by prolonged insurgency.
That now changing to a defeat of Ukraine followed by Sleboda’s “Zone of destabilisation and insecurity for the rest of our lives” in what is left after the Russians have incorporated whatever they decide to incorporate of the Kharkov/Odessa arc.
If that is what Washington and Berlin hope for, and I believe it is, then failing capitulation, and given that some of these weapons we are supplying will be long range and could be longer range in the future, the Russians will be forced to occupy up to the NATO border. The “Buffer Zone” Putin mentioned recently might have to go that far.
I’ve long given up attempting to parse the material put out by Foreign Affairs. So much delusion piled upon delusion it makes one’s head spin. These people live in a world of their own. But one sentence put out in a heap of such delusion recently caught my attentions. ” a Korean-style armistice would not be a bad model for Ukraine, as Charap recently noted”.
(https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraines-winnable-war)
They’re looking for a remnant Ukraine. One they can continue to support and supply with weapons. A remnant Ukraine that can be used, as the old Ukraine was used, as a NATO battering ram against Russia. This is old wine in new bottles:-
“Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability.”
(https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html)
That infamous Rand report was read by everyone. All missed the warning “But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.”
They’re missing the warning this time round as well. If they seek to use remnant Ukraine as they used the old Ukraine, then failing any settlement the Russians will simply occupy up to the NATO border. As for Sleboda’s “Zone of destabilisation” that he fears will result if Russia occupies Western Ukraine, I’m not sure about that. Not any more. The ultra-nationalists, the people it’s hoped would keep the pot boiling in a Russian occupied remnant Ukraine, will probably by then have left for Europe.
But “unimperator”, that’s failing a settlement. How much longer will the Ukrainian people endure what is happening? I see some analysts talking as if this will all be keep going until the US Presidential elections. Can the Ukraine people put up with it for that long?
They know now that they are not our allies, fighting with us for freedom and democracy. They are simply our patsies, our means of getting at Russia. I don’t believe, given what they’re going through at the moment, that they’ll be willing to continue in that role as long as November 2024, SBU whipping them into line or not.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 22:37 utc | 125

Another consequence that will occur at some point is the demise of the Eurozone as European nations revert to their national currencies

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 22:28 utc | 124
Might well turn out to be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, the € zone has Target 2 (im)balances – some analysts have crystallised this as “monies owed to Germany by everyone else”. A € nation that returns to its national currency effectively defaults on its Target 2 obligations.
I have no idea what a financial kaboom sounds like.
(apologies to everyone for going off-topic, even more apologies for possibly provoking a @Derek Henry froth-fest)

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 18 2023 22:41 utc | 126

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 22:37 utc | 126
Most likely RU will end up taking and incorporating up to Odessa and something from the middle. Pretty much everything will end up getting as a result of the nazi infestation, and rebuilding will happen on clean-sheet design – nothing will be replaced or restored just for sake of restoring something, but built on-need basis. Everyone staying will need to be carefully vetted, nazi’s sent off packing (most will probably run away before that anyway).
The rest will most likely be turned into rubble including western Ukraine will be consumed by war like Donbass, but have doubts that RU will ever occupy it. There will probably be a vast empty land between west-Banderastan and whatever RU or proxy control. Everything really depends on what US neocons will do next, and it’s not looking very good re. Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan etc.
The Duran said that the neocons have been doing some housecleaning in State department and Pentagon of any realists and anyone opposed to sending F-16, or ATACMs to Ukraine. It will just get worse.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 22:59 utc | 127

Posted by: Lex | Jun 18 2023 21:40 utc | 107
“You’re still assuming that what you think Putin should do and what you think Putin should achieve is both what he wants and that he believes this is the way to get it. You do so against all evidence of his personality and behavior, including years of trying to avoid this war.”
And you’re guilty of assuming that his “personality” outweighs Russia’s security interests which he has been complaining about since at least 2007 which is way before the Ukraine coup even occurred.
“I would be deeply surprised if Putin was waving around a fake. That would be completely out of character.”
Who said anything about a “fake”? What he is presumably waving around is the deal that was being considered prior to April 7 when Ukraine deviated from that document. Which still says absolutely nothing about what the final deal would be. I submit that since nothing in that deal – at least as has been reported so far, which is why I ask for the details – apparently addresses the issues of NATO’s strategic weapons, nor does it appear to deal with either actual “de-militarization” OR “de-Nazification” that this in fact was merely a deal to START negotiations at, not a final peace deal.
Since the details have never been made public, everyone has jumped on the bandwagon of declaring that “peace in March was possible”, for which there is simply no evidence. Neither has it been proven that Boris Johnson’s visit on April 9 had anything to do with Ukraine’s derailing the deal days earlier, nor has the influence on Russia of the Bucha “war crimes” accusations been taken into account.
“Nor did he say it was the final deal.”
Yes, this part you get absolutely right.
“It was evident that both sides were negotiating in good faith.”
That part is not proven. Given the Bucha “war crimes” allegation and statements Zelensky made if you read some of the other reports at the time, there is considerable question about that, at least on Ukraine’s side.
“That document was at the point of an approved draft for higher levels to review and amend before going into more documents. So no one should assume that it was “the” deal. Besides, we’ve only seen part of it.”
Correct. Which is my whole point: the emphasis that has been placed on this as it would have been the end of the war is complete bullshit. But this is constantly brought up by people like Mercouris, who blame the whole thing on Boris Johnson.
“It would have been a deep embarrassment for the US at that point in time. That’s why Biden/Johnson spiked it.”
I have no doubt that the deal would have been spiked subsequently. Never said otherwise. I just point out that it was not just Boris Johnson who ruined it. The deal was already on shaky ground.
More importantly, the deal has attained “legendary” status which it does not deserve. And Putin’s waving it around now doesn’t help that, other than to establish that Russia is “agreement-capable” and Ukraine and the West is not. Which is fine to re-emphasize that, but it does nothing to dispel the mythology around the Turkey negotiations.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 23:04 utc | 128

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 22:37 utc | 126
“They’re missing the warning this time round as well. If they seek to use remnant Ukraine as they used the old Ukraine, then failing any settlement the Russians will simply occupy up to the NATO border. As for Sleboda’s “Zone of destabilisation” that he fears will result if Russia occupies Western Ukraine, I’m not sure about that. Not any more. The ultra-nationalists, the people it’s hoped would keep the pot boiling in a Russian occupied remnant Ukraine, will probably by then have left for Europe.”
Absolutely correct. Sleboda is still hampered by the delusion that Russia will accept a remnant Ukraine being used against it. He seems to be unwilling to give Putin and his team credit for obviously being aware of that probability and thus intending to forestall it.
Lavrov’s recent comment about how Russia will now insure its security “on its own” without regard to “deals and negotiations” makes clear that the time for peace agreements is over.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 23:08 utc | 129

@karlof1 124
all these of course highly fascinating topics.
I do not know this stuff so I pose dumb questions sometimes.
Why would the EU zone be a dead zone. Merely for rising energy prices?
I do not know how much of the de-industrialization claims/fear will materialize e.g.
Naked Capitalism did remind of the fact that Sterling needed a century and two WWs to be de-throned as world currency.
Just because there a parallel entities such as Shanghai and BRICS emerging stronger the present system will not dissolve into thin air.
There are the EU China relations. There is domestic EU trade.
There are South Korea, Japan, the Pacific region etc.
China is not Captain Marvel.
So where are the hard actions that undermine EU/USA in such dramatic ways?
So far what has happened? Energy prices peaked in EU.
And arms were used for what they were built for.
And the OPEC states demand some independence.
RU-EU trade has become minor.
But the working population in the EU has not been killed, unlike in Ukraine.
And RU is forced to ramp up investments into military.
Money that could be used wiser in our times.
In how far the disintegration will take place in Euope, who knows.
If Poland and the Baltics will put in effect their dangerous but childish rhetoric remains to be seen. (The Baltics people are as large as Berlin-Brandenburg population alone)
Epecially when immigrant numbers will rise which they will unless of course wars in Africa are planned to stop those people in their home countries. Which would be a really dumb idea. But we are good with dumb.
And Lula has done deals in Brazil with the far right there. Which limits his domestic power, I can only guess.
Besides he is not immortal.
The situation in South America might be way more vulnerable to US meddling than Russia.
And Russian borders can cost a lot of energy if the West decides to pester them there.
And then there is the giant issue of climate change. Which I had hoped would put some sense into the governments´ minds.
(yeah for a couple of months in the year 2021 I did think that.)
And I dont even want to know what demonic plans the companies have in terms of externalizing climate costs to regions most vulnerable and at the same time friendly and open to Chinese loans.
I dont write this in expectation of an answer of course.
Rather I thank you for pointing it out and reminding me of the above arguments and I will have to look also into Hudson´s shows since February where he dicussed these things.
But he too is not God.
which doesn´t mean I would disagree with you.
I just dont agree with simplifying. But noone on MoA does.

Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 23:12 utc | 130

@unimperator 128
“The Duran said that the neocons have been doing some housecleaning in State department and Pentagon of any realists and anyone opposed to sending F-16, or ATACMs to Ukraine. It will just get worse.”
The Duran, do you remember which show exactly?

Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 23:17 utc | 131

Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 23:17 utc | 132
i read that on a different site, maybe naked capitalism.some deputy sec at the state department is retiring, Nuland is rumored to replace her, iirc.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 18 2023 23:24 utc | 132

I keo reading about “mass surrenders” but on videos I see maybe 10 to 20 PoWs captured at any one time, and not many videos at that. Where are those masses that surrendered?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 18 2023 23:30 utc | 133

John Helmer is becoming one of my most valued sources, even on Russian literature! (His recent review of Fathers and Sons by Turgenev persuaded me to enjoy a great classic.)
Today Helmer talks about those NATO exercises, which are sometimes dismissed out of hand, as if having not much to do with the war in Ukraine. To the contrary, Helmer finds portentous significance in what looks to me and Putin like pointless provocation — the point is deconstructing Article 5:

What is happening is that by aiming their display of NATO airpower at the Kremlin, US and German commanders in their Ramstein bunkers have provoked Putin to call their bluff: he is now aiming directly at the Poles, Romanians and Germans, telling them to “deem” whether war with Russia is “necessary”.

https://johnhelmer.net/putins-warning-on-the-f-16-natos-article-five-is-now-for-burning/

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 18 2023 23:33 utc | 134

@ : karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 22:28 utc | 124
I just got a note from Dr. Hudson who I shared that news with, and he replied that the EU is now a “dead zone”.
Here I go again: The European Union is an outlaw (where did I get that word) entity which (uniquely) violates the UN Charter by lessening national sovereignty of European nations.
“The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.”

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 18 2023 23:36 utc | 135

@ Chaka Khagan, #68
Monsanto doesn’t exist anymore. It was bought by Bayer in 2016 and the name Monsanto has been gone since 2018. I know many MoAs have an undying hatred of Monsanto for ushering the GMO crop era but in the end, they were a middling player in the global corporate big chem- big pharma-big ag seed world. Two of the largest ag industry revenue companies are German chemical companies, BASF and Bayer…
https://www.globaldata.com/companies/top-companies-by-sector/agriculture-forestry/global-agricultural-products-companies-by-revenue/

Posted by: DakotaRog | Jun 18 2023 23:36 utc | 136

English Outsider @ 126
Yes, they will leave for Europe.
The Ukrainian economy barely exists outside of US largesse. It is much like a cargo cult. When the money fountain dries up only a few will happily plot and scheme for a few cigarettes, some vodka and bullets. They will be easy to identify.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 18 2023 23:46 utc | 137

Late input, re dam.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 19:01 utc | 65
I’ve seen 2 very logical explanations for the increased water levels at the dam oreceeding its burst (ie, “Russia not draining it”).
Ukraine spent some 300 Himars on trying to bust that dam (Source Putin). They hit the road, the walls, the gates, *AND* the power generation station.
It is highly probable that, past a certain damage, Russia was *unable to operate the release gates*, thereby APPEARING that they were hoarding water in it, all whilst Ukraine upstream was hoarding water for an explosive release to cause failure at Karkhova Dam.
Also, with constant shelling and missiles to the area on the eastern side, Russian personnel (be they RF or Wagner) would have been dangerously exposed to being hit.
Imo, the dam bust was a constant tricky Kievan/AFU plan pretty hard for the Russians to thwart by any means, and eventually happened by spontaneous failure at a time which SORT OF benefitted both sides to block/delay Kherson offensives in EITHER direction.
The mystery is why Russia has, as yet, not released any footage of that night. I think maybe a guilty conscience at not being able to prevent it, AND NO EXPLOSIONS to prove the AFU immediately caused it.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 18 2023 23:47 utc | 138

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 18 2023 23:33 utc | 135
Since the exercises are clearly not cover for anything, as Helmer nonetheless continues to insist, he now has to move the goal posts into declaring that this means Article 5 is no longer relevant.
Well, Article 5 never was relevant. Article 4 was always the most relevant, as it has actually been used in the war on Yugoslavia, as Ritter has pointed out many times. The idea of setting up a “coalition of the willing” with Poland, Romania and the Baltic states is clearly the next move after Ukraine collapses.
He is correct that Putin has already called their bluff. The problem for the West remains: with what are they going to challenge Russia? They haven’t got anything other than nukes and this will become more obvious as time goes on.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 23:50 utc | 139

The message here should be very clear: China is dealing directly with America’s overlords. People like Gates and Musk are higher in the western hierarchy than Biden.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 20:41 utc | 86
Yes, or at least NOT subordinate to Biden. And at least some of the overlords are more interested in business than fighting.
And I suppose from China’s point of view, anybody who thinks like that is a good thing. I’d talk to Gates too, painful though it might be.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 19 2023 0:05 utc | 140

The mystery is why Russia has, as yet, not released any footage of that night. I think maybe a guilty conscience at not being able to prevent it, AND NO EXPLOSIONS to prove the AFU immediately caused it.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 18 2023 23:47 utc | 139
Hold such information. Use the evidence when its most effective. Hence, Putin leaked the peace proposal ducuments a couple of days ago, not at the time. Its had its effect.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 19 2023 0:08 utc | 141

” And I suppose from China’s point of view, anybody who thinks like that is a good thing. I’d talk to Gates too, painful though it might be.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 19 2023 0:05 utc | 141 ”
What would you talk to him about ? Hes no longer running Microsoft and just does ” philanthropic ” work, for example, sterilizing African women by vaccinations.

Posted by: Shocked | Jun 19 2023 0:09 utc | 142

” Hold such information. Use the evidence when its most effective. Hence, Putin leaked the peace proposal ducuments a couple of days ago, not at the time. Its had its effect.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 19 2023 0:08 utc | 142 ”
When do you think Putin will release all the info Russia has about the 9/11 operation ?

Posted by: Shocked | Jun 19 2023 0:10 utc | 143

The best analysis of the flawed argument by Seymour Hersh’ latest post is here: https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/sergei-karaganovs-latest-controversial

Posted by: Lubica | Jun 19 2023 0:27 utc | 144

In response to

The message here should be very clear: China is dealing directly with America’s overlords. People like Gates and Musk are higher in the western hierarchy than Biden.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 20:41 utc | 86
Yes, or at least NOT subordinate to Biden. And at least some of the overlords are more interested in business than fighting.
And I suppose from China’s point of view, anybody who thinks like that is a good thing. I’d talk to Gates too, painful though it might be.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 19 2023 0:05 utc | 141

Just who is Russia going to negotiate with continues to be the question? If all the overlords are not on the same page, who holds the ring that binds them all? I have always said it is this supra-national cult of finance folks that may include Pope Frank and King Chuck but can’t speculate about others. The ongoing point I make about membership in the cult is the longevity of the finance owners leverage over newbies like Gates and Musk…..who have to use the cult’s banking system, eh?
This civilization war should bring us more clarity about these issues than us at the bottom of the ladder have seen in ages.
Who will China and Russia negotiate with when the music stops?
Asking for a friend……

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 19 2023 0:28 utc | 145

I just watched a great interview with Jacques Baud on Max Milo Éditions youtube channel. It’s in French so if you don’t speak French you’ll need to use the youtube subtitle function. The interview is entitled:
Jacques Baud : “La clé du conflit est à Washington”
Those interested in watching the interview should use the above title to search for the video on Youtube.

Posted by: Apotheoun | Jun 19 2023 0:29 utc | 146

What would you talk to him about ? Hes no longer running Microsoft and just does ” philanthropic ” work, for example, sterilizing African women by vaccinations.
Posted by: Shocked | Jun 19 2023 0:09 utc | 143
I would not expect to be doing the talking. And I expect he would be talking about what he wants. And I would mostly nod my head and encourage him, but be noncommittal. Or maybe bimbos. He could talk about bimbos. He’s divorced now, a free man.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 19 2023 0:37 utc | 147

@unimperator 128
“The Duran said that the neocons have been doing some housecleaning in State department and Pentagon of any realists and anyone opposed to sending F-16, or ATACMs to Ukraine. It will just get worse.”
The Duran, do you remember which show exactly?
Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 23:17 utc | 132

,.. that sounds like this episode … posted today … from @12:30
Biden White House, project Ukraine policy shift
https://rumble.com/v2uzusv-biden-white-house-project-ukraine-policy-shift.html

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 19 2023 0:42 utc | 148

AG | Jun 18 2023 23:12 utc | 131–
I’ve moved our conversation to the Week in Review thread.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 19 2023 1:01 utc | 149

Posted by: Milites | Jun 18 2023 21:59 utc | 118
My bad, I stand corrected. thank you.

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 19 2023 1:09 utc | 150

Below is a Reuters posting summary from an hour ago

British intelligence said heavy fighting in recent days was focused on Zaporizhzhia, western Donetsk and around Bakhmut, which Russian mercenaries captured last month after the longest battle of the war.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 19 2023 1:11 utc | 151

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 20:46 utc | 88
All good points, Richard.
I think your argument highlights the importance of understanding the proximate cause of the SMO. Was it mostly, perhaps entirely, due to a looming Ukrainian attack on the Donbass? Or, was it going to happen anyway with that threat merely bringing forward the timing, as you’ve argued elsewhere?
If it was the former then it’s not out of the question that Russia might have been happy to bank a partial win, burnish their reputation for reasonableness, and return to the slower and safer track of diplomacy.
I obviously don’t know the answer (not sure anyone outside the Kremlin does) but hope the “SMO Project” launched by Sushi (and clearly of interest to many here) may get us closer to one.
As others have already suggested, a post by b and subsequent thread dedicated to this issue might be a useful idea.

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 1:15 utc | 152

Below is a Reuters posting summary from an hour ago
British intelligence said heavy fighting in recent days was focused on Zaporizhzhia, western Donetsk and around Bakhmut, which Russian mercenaries captured last month after the longest battle of the war.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 19 2023 1:11 utc | 152
The British intelligence community has been exposed as a complete failure in this war. Their foresight has been dismally bad. Their evaluations have been laughable. You should probably take anything they say with a grain of salt. What a bunch of nobs.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 19 2023 1:16 utc | 153

@unimperator #128
https://twitter.com/fomocapdao/status/1670520996577652736
from “A Skeptic Newsletter” Battlefield update.
“NATO is considering stationing up to 300,000 troops on the border with Russia”

Posted by: Richard L | Jun 19 2023 1:19 utc | 154

And now rumors from Germany that Badanov has kicked the bucket….

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 19 2023 1:20 utc | 155

And now rumors from Germany that Badanov has kicked the bucket….
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 19 2023 1:20 utc | 156
Budanov died weeks ago. the kiev regime and the west just delayed the bad news for PR purposes. It didnt look good did it. Putins number 1 hater being assassinated !

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 19 2023 1:24 utc | 156

Just because Bayer now owns Monsanto doesn’t make it any less a dangerous concern. Try eating home baked spelt bread and discover what real bread tastes like.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 19 2023 1:27 utc | 157

@ Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 23:04 utc | 129 and elsewhere..
good commentary richard.. thanks.. i agree with you that boris johnson wasn’t the reason the peace agreement didn’t go thru… its much more likely the usa as head of the puppet ukraine leadership didn’t want any peace agreement… they would’ve prevented it.. the bucha event was staged to paint russia as the monster and make as much money off this war as possible, with the additional thought of taking russia down… ain’t working..
@ Apotheoun | Jun 19 2023 0:29 utc | 147
thanks! i will look it up..
@ Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 1:15 utc | 153
ditto your comment.. thanks.. would be great to see b make an entire post on that topic..

Posted by: james | Jun 19 2023 1:31 utc | 158

here is the youtube link that @ Apotheoun | Jun 19 2023 0:29 utc | 147 cites..
1 hour long.. hit the translate option to read in english if needed..
Jacques Baud : “La clé du conflit est à Washington”

Posted by: james | Jun 19 2023 1:34 utc | 159

If I were to guess how this war could end, I’d say with an independent Galicia. they see themselves as different from the rest of ukrainians, Putin cares about self-determination and would allow it. Western Ukraine never was part of Russia, the border of the austro hungarian empire is still remains unchanged in the oblast of ternopil, Stalin annexed that region due to it being part of Rus’ 800 years ago. Rebuilding that region would cost a lot of rubles needed somewhere else, and bring 0 benefits. Russia could dictate the surrender terms to this independent state, since it would be poor/almost unpopulated it would not serve any purpose for the west( which by then would be worried about the collapse of their economies/taiwan, to do anything) so it would pose no threat. The UN could place peace troops, including chinese, there to check for chemical/nuclear weapons. Russian would annex the rest of “novorossiya” Hungary transcarpathia and Belarus would get the rest. Its the most logical conclusion to me.

Posted by: Phariah | Jun 19 2023 1:41 utc | 160

@karlof1 150
“I’ve moved our conversation to the Week in Review thread.”
which means? (sry don´t know all the rules)
@Richard L 155
I cant find anything on the 300.000 NATO boots for UKR at Skeptic or original sources.
Is this false alarm? Or did I miss something.
This can only be official one way or the other and not without informing the Russians on some diplomatic informal level.

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 1:51 utc | 161

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 1:15 utc | 153
“As others have already suggested, a post by b and subsequent thread dedicated to this issue might be a useful idea.”
Might be. The problem is that in my view Putin and his team have been very cagey about revealing their end game because they don’t want the West over-reacting to it. One might presume that the Pentagon can see the obvious outcome of a Russia taking all of Ukraine in concert with their moves in Belarus and thus countering the NATO installations. But then one might wonder whether the people who do see that outcome, if any, have any input into the higher ups and whether that input would even have any effect on the obsessed neocons anyway even if someone told them. As others have noted, the neocons don’t really have much of a plan in the first place except “double down on hurting Russia” – regardless of whether that is actually working or not.
And since the Russians haven’t come right out and said explicitly “Ukraine is about Aegis Ashore as well as NATO in Ukraine”, we’re left with speculating and trying to tea-leaf read what the end game is. This is further complicated by the slow-motion SMO which has confused everyone as to whether Russia really intends to even go past the Donbass, let alone take all of Ukraine. The military guys keep saying Russia can’t take Ukraine with the forces they have, forgetting that Ukraine is losing all its forces in the process and eventually won’t have anything left to even take on a single Russian battalion, let alone the half- to three-quarters of a million troops Russia currently has available.
This is further complicated by everyone imposing their own notions about Russia’s willingness to deal with a hypothetical Ukrainian “insurgency” which has been drummed up entirely in their heads and by reports of alleged CIA “plans” for same, despite the fact that this was tried after WWII and failed miserably. Even Andrei Martyanov keeps ascribing emotional reasons for Russia to not want to “deal with” western Ukraine as if this sort of thing actually outweighs the overriding security concerns of leaving a “rump Ukraine” accessible to the CIA and NATO. Which is why I keep saying people need to give Russia some credit for having the ability to deal with any “insurgency” the West might come up with. The same for any “Ukrainian government in exile” and “continued Western supplies of arms”, all of which is entirely neutered if Russia takes all of Ukraine and remakes the entire security environment inside Ukraine.
It’s a mess and a mess of Russia’s making due to Putin keeping his end game under wraps. I understand why he did it, but sometimes I wish he’d just say, “Hey, this is what’s going to happen – and I hope you don’t like it. Now what are you going to do about it?”

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 2:10 utc | 162

gringo@125
Dude I wasn’t talking to your troll persona I was talking to the bad faith operater behind it.
Notice how nobody else but myself, a stranger to this bar, is even engaging? It’s because we’re all very used to tactic, seen it millions of times by now.

Posted by: Brautigan | Jun 19 2023 2:16 utc | 163

AG @162–
Here.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 19 2023 2:21 utc | 164

Posted by: Phariah | Jun 19 2023 1:41 utc | 161
“If I were to guess how this war could end, I’d say with an independent Galicia.”
You and everyone else.
“Putin cares about self-determination and would allow it.”
Does he care about self-determination of Nazis and rabid anti-Russian nationalists? Because that’s what Galicia is composed of.
“Western Ukraine never was part of Russia”
But it is now part of Ukraine and that’s what matters. Giving territory to Poland, which means giving it to NATO, is not helping Russia.
“Stalin annexed that region due to it being part of Rus’ 800 years ago.”
Which contradicts your “never was part of Russia.”
“Rebuilding that region would cost a lot of rubles needed somewhere else, and bring 0 benefits.”
It won’t cost any more than rebuilding the rest of Ukraine, especially the parts currently under Russian control which have been bombed to smithereens. As for benefits, I’ve described the benefits – locking NATO away from any part of Ukraine, not bringing NATO closer to Russia than it is now, and using that territory as a Russian Military District to counter NATO strategic weapons.
“Russia could dictate the surrender terms to this independent state”
Why bother leaving it independent, in that case?
“since it would be poor/almost unpopulated it would not serve any purpose for the west”
It would thus be perfect for a nice new NATO military base…
“which by then would be worried about the collapse of their economies/taiwan, to do anything)”
Pure speculation.
“so it would pose no threat.”
Once NATO moves in, it would.
“The UN could place peace troops, including chinese, there to check for chemical/nuclear weapons.”
Not without the West’s permission it couldn’t. And since the neocons would instantly move NATO there, forget that idea.
This is the same-old, same-old “analysis” everyone does. All of it is based on wishful thinking and avoidance of any real motives for the Ukraine war. However, the fact that it instantly appears whenever someone suggests that Russia might have an actual motive for taking all of Ukraine leads me to suspect that’s precisely what someone wants everyone to think.
I wonder who that someone might be…

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 2:22 utc | 165

I cant find anything on the 300.000 NATO boots for UKR at Skeptic or original sources.
Is this false alarm? Or did I miss something.
This can only be official one way or the other and not without informing the Russians on some diplomatic informal level.
Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 1:51 utc | 162
I think the original source concerning the talks at NATO come from this piece,
https://news.yahoo.com/nato-considering-deployment-300-000-024600132.html

Posted by: Richard L | Jun 19 2023 2:31 utc | 166

Some videos for today.
Ukrainian POWs share their opinions about their commanders and Zelensky:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-06-18_17-21-39:1
Another group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-06-18_17-34-34:1
Russia Ka-52s destroy Kiev regime military equipment:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-06-18_11-18-21:5
Open hunting season on leopards continues in the former Ukraine:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-06-17_12-45-29_AdobeExpress:e
Russian artillery pounds enemy positions:
https://rutube.ru/video/9361b5221796c399018d950705bca0dc/
Dresden marches against arms deliveries to the Kiev regime:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/dresden_1706:1

Posted by: Nate | Jun 19 2023 2:34 utc | 167

“ That infamous Rand report was read by everyone. All missed the warning “But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.””
You’re making heavy weather out of a very simple concept. Rand, like everyone else in the west, thought that in February 2022 that the Russians would overrun Ukraine. We overestimated the Russian army.
“ They know now that they are not our allies, fighting with us for freedom and democracy. They are simply our patsies, our means of getting at Russia. I don’t believe, given what they’re going through at the moment, that they’ll be willing to continue in that role as long as November 2024, SBU whipping them into line or not.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 22:37 utc | 126”
The Ukrainians fight because they don’t want to be occupied by Russia. It’s not about being anyone’s patsy, East or West.

Posted by: Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 2:38 utc | 168

Richard Steven Hack you’re an braindamaged idiot. the state known in english as “Rus’ ” wasnt Russia, any more than Hungary is the austro hungarian empire, the fact that it is written with an y instrad of a o should have show you that , but given you dont know shit about the russian language, im not surprised. Its in fact weird that someone who doesnt, waste so much time on these discussion, nothing to do in life? The rest of your comment is unfounded crap not worth of further comment, bye.

Posted by: Phariah | Jun 19 2023 2:49 utc | 169

@Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 2:10 utc | 164
It’s a mess and a mess of Russia’s making due to Putin keeping his end game under wraps.
Decision makers like to know all the factors before making a decision, and here there are too many variables including unknowns and unknown-unknowns (going back to Rumsfeld).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2023 2:50 utc | 170

The Ukrainians fight because they are poor and have to, or they are deluded by NATO propaganda that everything will be rainbows and roses if they join NATO and the EU.
The rest of the Ukrainians arent fighting at all, they fled, and will happily return to novorussoya once this is done. And they’ll happily fly the Novorussoyan flag, the one that didn’t steal their president in a coup in 2014. Even in west ukraine yanukovich still got 25 percent of the vote or more. Those people dont appreciate the CIA coup.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 19 2023 2:51 utc | 171

@karlof1 166
thx!

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 2:53 utc | 172

@Don Bacon 172
“Decision makers like to know all the factors before making a decision,”
hm, do they?

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 2:55 utc | 173

@Richard L 168
thx!
but then thats what I did find too.
(wonder though why someone would dig that out now)

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 2:57 utc | 174

@SattaMassaGana 149
thx!

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 3:00 utc | 175

Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 2:38 utc | 170
*** The Ukrainians fight because they don’t want to be occupied by Russia. It’s not about being anyone’s patsy, East or West.***
They voted for Zelensky because he lied.
But they ended up with his — and his masters’ — war.
The country itself has been sold from under them, to US corporate interests.
And perhaps part of it to be handed over to Poland.
With, if Russia does not win, US military occupation of the rest.
Plus full infliction of the wokist / trans NATO “values” agenda of social destruction.
So everything is lost anyway … why bother to fight at all, unless coerced into doing so by the corrupt puppet-regime in Kiev?

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 19 2023 3:05 utc | 176

170. The Ukraine bleeds white because Maerica demands it be so, and the unholy alliance of fascism and mass media masks, for now, the true butchers bill of this fiasco.
The ordinary people of the Ukraine are the very absolute last consideration of the people driving this war from the West, unless they happen to sympathize with Russia, in which case the West is happy to see them murdered with their donated weapons.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 19 2023 3:10 utc | 177

AP is reporting that Putin blew up the dam using a car bomb. They have shooped pics and everything. Only took them two weeks to concoct the story.

Posted by: MSM Enj0yer | Jun 19 2023 3:14 utc | 178

“ Might be. The problem is that in my view Putin and his team have been very cagey about revealing their end game because they don’t want the West over-reacting to it. One might presume that the Pentagon can see the obvious outcome of a Russia taking all of Ukraine in concert with their moves in Belarus and thus countering the NATO installations. But then one might wonder whether the people who do see that outcome, if any, have any input into the higher ups and whether that input would even have any effect on the obsessed neocons anyway even if someone told them. As others have noted, the neocons don’t really have much of a plan in the first place except “double down on hurting Russia” – regardless of whether that is actually working or not.”
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 2:10 utc | 164
Since the Russian army is unable to capture Kharkov, which is 30 km from the Russian border, it’s probably hard to get anyone to care what Putin’s endgame is.

Posted by: Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 3:15 utc | 179

So everything is lost anyway … why bother to fight at all, unless coerced into doing so by the corrupt puppet-regime in Kiev?
Posted by: Cynic | Jun 19 2023 3:05 utc | 178
On the contrary, the Ukrainians have been very successful in preventing the Russians from occupying their country.

Posted by: Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 3:20 utc | 180

“very successful”

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 19 2023 3:26 utc | 181

There is a tunnel underneath the dam, and given the extent of the damage, I think it all but certain that there were explosives in the tunnel. If the Russians couldn’t open a sluice gate by the normal method, they should have opened one destructively. You know, don’t let the water get real deep.
Zelensky is the sales person, so sensibly he should be out and around. The good news, if you want to call it that, is I think people have gotten tired of him. The constant begging has become a bit much. Plus his not at home self became a feature after those two drones attacked Russia. It looks to me like he fears assassination, mainly from the Russians.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 3:27 utc | 182

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 1:51 utc | 162
Posted by: Richard L | Jun 19 2023 2:31 utc | 168
“https://news.yahoo.com/nato-considering-deployment-300-000-024600132.html”
That’s a funny story. Consider this:

It is noted that the first echelon of NATO troops may consist of about 100,000 soldiers, ready to deploy within 10 days. It may include troops from Poland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The second echelon of troops, Politico writes, will support these soldiers, ready to be deployed within 10-30 days from countries such as Germany.

I find it doubtful that the first 100,000 can be found, and even more doubtful that the second 200,000 can be found – unless they’re assuming the US will supply 100,000 or more. I find it even more doubtful that they can provide the logistics and sustainment.
Politico admits:

However, the news outlet emphasises that coordination may be challenging, as many allies are already concerned about their own insufficient ammunition stocks, which take time and money to replenish.

This is the Politico article:
NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?
Simple answer: No.
This was a funny line:

“If there’s not somebody hosting the potluck and telling everybody what to bring, then everyone would bring potato chips because potato chips are cheap, easy to get,” said James J. Townsend Jr., a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy.
“Nations,” he added, “would rather bring potato chips.”

These are people claiming to want to prevent Russia from expanding its war outside Ukraine. With Russia already having half a million to three-quarters of a million troops available to do so, these idiots want to spend the next several years trying to raise 300,000 troops with all necessary equipment to out-perform Russia on the battlefield. By which time, Russia will have 1.5 million troops under arms and even more hypersonic missiles, thousands of tanks, thousands of artillery, millions of artillery shells and more aircraft.
It’s an example of delusion on a mass scale. No surprise there.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 3:29 utc | 183

Posted by: Zinjanthropus
Welcome to my block.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 3:30 utc | 184

simplicius latest –
AFU Suffers Horror Breakdowns as Russian Forces Repel New Advance

Posted by: james | Jun 19 2023 3:33 utc | 185

can´t someone make Vic Nuland fall in love with someone, reconsider her life, make her abandon everything and move to Florida and open a gift-shop and a bar (called MoA)

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 3:34 utc | 186

“Posted by: Zinjanthropus
Welcome to my block.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 3:30 utc | 186”
The SMO thanks you for another heroic contribution to its inexorable triumph.

Posted by: Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 3:37 utc | 187

@168 Richard L
@162 AG
The yahoo article seems to originate from Ukraine. The Politico source it refers to likely is this article from March this year.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-is-racing-to-arm-its-russian-borders-can-it-find-the-weapons-eastern-edge-military-leaders-james-j-townsend-jr-us-one-billion-citizens-army-europe/
The Skeptic was posting this today.
https://substack.com/redirect/4135f47f-6ed7-46ff-9be3-873cf7640546?j=eyJ1IjoiMWg1azNhIn0.D1WG5PZX_5xroopvr07t-gC6ldR5RyDHLphh3wPok8A
Then a search took me to this tweet that connects the two together,
https://twitter.com/fomocapdao/status/1670520996577652736
That tweet might just be disinformation.

Posted by: Richard L | Jun 19 2023 3:38 utc | 188

@Richard Steven Hack 185
thx for the Politico link
listening to the Duran from 9 hours ago, they talk about step 1 of escalation as described by you and Politico.
But not those steps xyz that you also mentioning.
They argue Vic Nuland would go all WWIII in and demand EU sending troops.
But what troops? Did she think about that?
I know of no survey where realistically people in Europe would even think about that.
Of course you have a couple of thousand special Ops. But thats for underground warfare.
Nothing of fighting 1,5 mio. magnitude.
Still, I just cannot get it into my head that these people – Scholz – are really doing what they are doing.
I mean he used to represent the Marxist youth in Hamburg 40 years ago.
How can you turn so 180 degrees…

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 3:43 utc | 189

@Richard L 191
thx for looking into it.
Interesting you say disinfo.
I would have just assumed, naive a I am, mistake.

Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 3:46 utc | 190

I mean he used to represent the Marxist youth in Hamburg 40 years ago.
How can you turn so 180 degrees…
Posted by: AG | Jun 19 2023 3:43 utc | 192
One way of thinking about this stuff is that it is a power trip, the doctrine just the justification for the will to power. In everyday life it is the subordinate who insists the boss is a pushy prick, and then becomes the pushy prick when promoted.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 19 2023 3:51 utc | 191

So much for Twitter rumors… This is what the “massive movements” is all about…paranoids are afraid the US military is going to attack…the US!
Viral Video Hypes Fear Of ‘Military Movements’ In California For Absolutely No Reason

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 3:53 utc | 192

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 2:10 utc | 164
Again, all reasonable points.
And I agree, while Russia’s ambiguity regarding how they intend to achieve their strategic goals may be frustrating to many, it’s essential to maintaining operational freedom. They know they’re dealing with an unstable opponent, and that the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Will they end up taking the lot, or at least most of it while parcelling out the rest to assorted neighbours? My guess is they don’t know, there are still far too many uncertainties. Amongst those, I suspect, is the possibility that bottom-up unrest in Europe (and quite possibly in Ukraine) might dramatically alter the landscape. Along with not scaring the horses too much and continuing to conduct the SMO in as civilised fashion as possible, it seems yet another excellent reason to take things slowly.
The more I see of Russia’s behaviour, the more I think they understand and love asymmetric bets.

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 3:55 utc | 193

“And I agree, while Russia’s ambiguity regarding how they intend to achieve their strategic goals may be frustrating to many, it’s essential to maintaining operational freedom. They know they’re dealing with an unstable opponent, and that the stakes couldn’t be higher.”
Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 3:55 utc | 196
Let me help you. There is no ambiguity. Everyone with a brain in the west assumes Putin would occupy the whole of Ukraine, if only he could. They are interested in his (and their) capabilities, not his intentions.

Posted by: Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 4:08 utc | 194

Latest The Gaggle: George Szamuely and Peter Lavelle discuss the manifold, not to say myriad, nonsensical statements NATO is making ahead of the Vilnius summit on the topic of Ukraine and its prospective NATO membership.
TG 1185: NATO Ties Itself Up Into A Pretzel Over Ukraine. What Else is New?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zs5E6mhAF0

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 4:14 utc | 195

Ex-CIA Analyst Ray McGovern on Ukraine, Ellsberg, War with China & More with Richard Medhurst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmvPp_3elfk

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 19 2023 4:17 utc | 196

@ Zinjanthropus | Jun 19 2023 3:15 utc | 181
“Since the Russian army is unable to capture Kharkov, which is 30 km from the Russian border, it’s probably hard to get anyone to care what Putin’s endgame is.”
This why non-brainwashed minds know there is no need for a NATO.
Meanwhile too many European politicians scream for money to arm Ukraine and re-inforce their own armies: sounds like arms manufacturers propagandists. Most European voters are sheep, let to the …..

Posted by: Antonym | Jun 19 2023 4:18 utc | 197

Re: De-Dollarization yield curve math
Federal Debt ladder has been gradually moving towards the short end of the yield curve for nearly 20 years. Treasury has rolled over long term debt with shorter term debt because interest is cheaper on the shorter end of the yield curve.
Net, Net – around 1/2 of federal gov‘t debt rolls over every 3 years or so. Plus new federal debt adds about 5% to the total debt annually. This rolled over debt now costs ~5% instead of the prior ~1% interest.
Next year, interest on federal debt will exceed the Pentagon’s budget and cost around 25% of Federal income. That’s up from ~5% of income in 2019.
Out to 2027; if de-dollarization is indeed taking hold among the 87% of the world – 1) we should expect treasury interest rates to remain stubbornly closer to 5% (versus 1%) as creditors assign more risk to Federal Debt. 2) we should also start seeing Treasury and the US Central Bank working on ‘creative solutions’.
My expectation is the creative solutions will be lots of money printing and can-kicking-down-the-road plus some sort of rumblings of wealth confiscation from IRAs/401ks in exchange for super-duper safe Treasury debt. We’ll likely see ‘freezing’ of certain Chinese assets in NATOland too. Desperate Times equal Desperate Measures.
Capital will really start to flee at that point. Gradually.
Maybe around 2030 will we start hearing serious discussions of default, debt freeze, and various other banana land measures to stave off full blown hyper-inflation insolvency.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2023 4:19 utc | 198

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 16:35 utc | 39
Yes, Russia in Syria . . . it was an eye-opener and strengthened my already considerable respect for their capabilities. Like you, way back when I spent a lot of time on Colonel Lang’s site and learnt a great deal. I haven’t checked in for a while but assume it’s still in its new, sad, delusional post SMO state (at least from my point of view).
Your humility is bracing. I don’t bring any credentials to this discussion either except for curiosity, a certain amount of slowly acquired understanding, hopefully some common sense, and a readiness to be proven wrong.
As you say, no shortage of material to work with. 🙂

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 19 2023 4:26 utc | 199

This why non-brainwashed minds know there is no need for a NATO.
Posted by: Antonym | Jun 19 2023 4:18 utc | 202
Nah, it’s far more simple. There’s no need for a NATO because modern day RF has no fkn desires to attack anyone outside of its own borders. Never gas since 1991. It only attacked Ukraine because it was heading/planning to join NATO and was mistreating 5 million ethnic Russians in the Donbass, not to mention the lies of Minsk 1&2.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 19 2023 4:29 utc | 200