Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 18, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-144

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Good morning. May this war end soon and many soldiers go home to their families.

Posted by: Thomas Sharpe | Jun 18 2023 13:34 utc | 1

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18 June 2023)
If my summing up is correct the report lists Ukrainian losses due to failed mass attacks over the last 24 hours as:
68 tanks, 64 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 74 Armored Combat Vehicle and 890 950 personnel. Those were enough combat vehicles for two complete brigades!

Posted by: b | Jun 18 2023 13:34 utc | 2

You’ve missed out a further nine tanks in the 5th paragraph:

In addition, as a result of a complex shelling of four AFU reserves’ convoys near Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region), nine tanks, ten infantry fighting vehicles and up to ten other armoured fighting vehicles were destroyed.

That’s 77 tanks 74 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 84 Armored Combat Vehicle, plus the odds and ends further down the page.

Posted by: Jim2 | Jun 18 2023 13:49 utc | 3

Here’s some “news” that’s “flown under the radar”.
Two vid reports, both ambiguous and hyperbolic.
So.
Australia is, has, or will maybe be sending F/A-18 fighter planes to Ukraine.
Vid 1: reports Ukrainian pilots are already trained by Australia and are flying the “Australian” F/A-18s, but Australia needs/ has/ is waiting/ U$ approval to transfer the planes to Ukraine.
This vid insinuates an Ukrainian pilot walked up to a F-18, jumped in, an immediately knew how to fly it at first sight. It then also explains training to fly the F/A-18s is “extensive”.
So the (alleged) Ukrainian pilot has been training with/ by Australia in Ukraine? Or Australia? Or somewhere ? for an “extensive” period.
…”Just Arrived, Ukrainian Pilots Flew an Australian F/A-18 Hornet in Seconds Near the Russian Border”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zSpSgvNhaM
Vid 2:
“Australia will Send 41 Retired RAAF F-18 Hornet Fighter Jets to Ukraine”

The US, Australia and Ukraine are discussing the delivery of 41 Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) F/A-18 Hornet fighters to Kiev in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for Western fighters.
According to The Australian Financial Review (AFR), a confidential source revealed that the US welcomed the idea of handing over ex-RAAF F/A-18s to the Ukrainian Air Force.
The retired F/A-18 Hornet will be replaced by Lockheed Martin F-35A.
(F/A-18s are) sitting in hangars at the RAAF’s Williamtown base outside Newcastle …. (There are) plans to sell to train US military pilots if not delivered to Ukraine.
Dozens of RAAF F/A-18 hornet fighter jets are expected to become operational within four months and are used to help repel the Russian invasion of Ukrainian airspace rather than being destroyed for nothing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wYX2w5OKHg
>… Vision of the F/A-18s seems to have been taken at an airbase in the US.
(YT Comments say Nellis?)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 18 2023 13:54 utc | 4

Inventory destroyed:
* 444 aircraft,
* 239 helicopters,
* 4,686 unmanned aerial vehicles,
* 426 anti-aircraft missile systems,
* 10,156 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
* 1,125 multiple launch rocket systems combat vehicles,
* 5,149 field artillery guns and mortars,
* 11,028 units of special military vehicles,
* 5 Patriots
* 77 Storm Shadows

Posted by: AI | Jun 18 2023 13:56 utc | 5

If true, the news of mass surrenders offers hope for us all as NATO will be unable to intervene, however defined, because Ukraine will be collapsing. We can hope this accelerates before the Vilnius meeting and offers them no path into a WW3 expansion of the war.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 18 2023 13:59 utc | 6

Question:
Does anyone have a good handle on the Population dynamics of The Ukraine from 2014-2021 ?
It’s my impression that a yuge number of Ukrainians fled the place. I recall that around 5 million left for Europe/North America and some 3 million went to Russia. This was before Moscow‘s peacekeeping mission began.
I searched the web but couldn’t find anything .

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 13:59 utc | 7

From Military Summary Channel Insane Carnage and Weeb Union Complete Disaster with more prisoners being taken.
One point that I read on Telegram was that the NATO trainers seemed to think that taking recruits and putting them through “NATO training” was better than mixing in some battle-hardened veterans, and that it was veteran brigades not the new NATO-trained brigades (who keep taking big losses) that had made any real progress.
Not looking good for Ukraine, the Russians step back while creating a lot of Ukie losses, then the Russian artillery (including TOS thermobaric), helicopters and aircraft pound the hell out of the new Ukie positions and pretty much destroys them. Military Summary even calling one such case “a real massacre”. Even rumours that Ukies are damaging their own vehicles so as not to have to enter the killing zone. How long will Ukrainian military morale last this kind of craziness? Russia seems to be getting much better at the media war as well, in an attempt to break Ukie morale. The Ukies haven’t even reached the Russian first line of defence.
Wagners are saying that the Ukies have committed more troops to this failed offensive than they committed to the defence of Bakhmut.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 18 2023 14:03 utc | 8

Another day of ‘madness’..
This was mentioned in yesterday’s thread..
“History Legends” (YT) released his latest episode, that is more Russian focused and does show some Russian losses and last week there was a prisoner exchange, but I fear that the Ukrainian losses are so bad, that the Russians have to fight to the death, as surrender no longer is an option.
Yesterday’s thread also got into the M.A.S.H. unit side of the Ukrainian equation, the attached crematoriums, and if true, this war is really, really sick.

Posted by: T S | Jun 18 2023 14:04 utc | 9

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 13:59 utc | 8
I vaguely recall reading that the last census was 20ish years ago and basically all numbers from thence are just pure guesswork. The last “estimate” puts it around 28-34 million as of Jan 1, 2022. Subtract the refugee population and the DPR/LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts and …
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/15533

Posted by: clueless | Jun 18 2023 14:07 utc | 10

I’m looking for the details and documents surrounding the very start of the SMO. I’ve read all the content of the “Dropbox” link and insightful details provided by English Outsider, Sushi and Ingolf Eide. I’ve also reviewed the concise summary of lead up events provided by Geoffrey Roberts on his ‘Now or never’: Putin’s Decision for War with Ukraine, document.
I know someone at the bar, likely b, will recall and be able to provide a link too, or a copy of, a letter from the “west” to the Azov/Nazi thugs to start attacking the Donbass more. This was in early Feb 2022.
As Roberts rightly details the massive increase in hostilities and explosions occurred just before the SMO began and the blame was said to be placed on both sides, however I recall discussion of a letter revealing increased hostilities was requested by a western influencer. Was it from a Canadian third party?
I hope someone here can provide details.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 14:13 utc | 11

Thanks clueless;
Very rough-
28 million as of 1.1.2022
(5) million flee to Europe
(4) million flee to RF
(7) million DPR/LPR/Crimea
—————————
12 million governed by Kiev
My guess is it’s actually less than 12 million, but just a guess.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 14:15 utc | 12

Wagners are saying that the Ukies have committed more troops to this failed offensive than they committed to the defence of Bakhmut.
In a tiny sliver of that time…

Posted by: goldhoarder | Jun 18 2023 14:17 utc | 13

@Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 13:59 utc | 8
Ukrainian demographics have been discussed here a few times, the Ukrainian controlled areas may be down to only 20 million or less by now.
The Ukrainian birth rate collapsed in the 1990s, so they already had a relatively small share for the best age group to serve in the military and much of what’s left is probably older people, children, women, disabled, unfit etc. The Ukraine economy has been shit for decades, and its always the young adults who are the ones to leave for better prospects. The large number of videos showing the extreme measures taken to find and forcibly conscript new recruits in Ukraine, and the high average age that the Russians are finding at the front line, speaks to a very small remaining pool.
They are even conscripting semi-invalids and people previously significantly injured in the fighting, plus reducing the age of eligibility! Women are rumoured to be next, and movement controls were placed on military-age women in Ukraine a few months ago. NATO wants to fight to the last Ukrainian they can find!

Posted by: Roger | Jun 18 2023 14:19 utc | 14

Perfect time to carry out a decapitation attack on the head of the Kyiv monster or to make an attempt to capture Kyiv. That can end the war tomorrow.
Russia must attack Ukraine’s airports with planes. They still have military craft.

Posted by: Jason | Jun 18 2023 14:24 utc | 15

NATO wants to fight to the last Ukrainian they can find !
Posted by: Roger | Jun 18 2023 14:19 utc | 16
Ukraine’s Western friends seem determined to have them play the role of Paraguay in the War of the Triple Alliance at the end of which there were at least 4 women for every 1 man left alive. I think Ukraine will break and the war will end long before then but it won’t be because the West says ‘We just have to stop this, too many Ukrainian soldiers are dying’.

Posted by: OnceWere | Jun 18 2023 14:29 utc | 16

Just a reminder: It’s not all good news on the Zaprozhiya front. Among the victories there are stories of sacrifice and loss.
Remember Putin’s story about junior lieutenant Yury Zhulanov who, while wounded, pulled his fighters from the battlefield? It so happened that a day later I received an audio letter with a very similar story. Not the “parquet (smooth) war” related by the President. This story is real, brutal, frightening, the kind we must look at without rose-colored glasses:

One day on the Orekhovskoye front. (Part 1)
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51248
One day on the Orekhovskoye front. (Part 2)
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51249
One day on the Orekhovskoye front. (Part 3)
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51250

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 18 2023 14:29 utc | 17

@ Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 14:13 utc | 13
on the left side of your screen, scroll down to where it says ‘monthly archives’.. start with feb 2022..
here is the link to it below. cheers
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/index.html

Posted by: james | Jun 18 2023 14:52 utc | 18

#9
>>One point that I read on Telegram was that the NATO trainers seemed to think that taking recruits and putting them through “NATO training” was better than mixing in some battle-hardened veterans, and that it was veteran brigades not the new NATO-trained brigades (who keep taking big losses) that had made any real progress.
Except, I suppose, when it comes to running complex devices, combat training is never all that valuable. The goal should be what can actually be accomplished, which is to get the guys trained enough that they survive their first few weeks in combat. It is those initial weeks of on the job training that is the actual training. Following combat training, if it can be done, the rookie recruits should be sent into the safer areas so that they survive long enough to be ‘battle hardened’. This taking newly trained units and smashing them into these hardened defensive lines is a calamity in the making.
I am guessing the reason they don’t mix new troopers in with the veterans is word of mouth. They don’t want the new guys being told what is actually going on at the front.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 18 2023 14:56 utc | 19

The US entered the Syrian war in 2014, and is still there. If the Ukraine war lasts the same time as the Syrian war, then we’re still at war ten years from now. In your opinion, what would EU/NATO look like after ten years of war?

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 18 2023 14:57 utc | 20

. . . testimony to Congress, April 26
Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, and Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the commander of U.S. European Command, discussed the Russian invasion, problems for Europe emanating from China and other security matters during their testimony before the panel.
“For over a year, this war has threatened Ukraine, the security of Europe, the global economy and the rules-based international order,” Wallander said. “Yet, thanks to the courage of the Ukrainian people, supported by the United States and a broad coalition of allies and partners from around the world, Russia has failed to achieve its objectives, and independent Ukraine endures.” . .here
You want some ketchup on that Celeste?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 18 2023 15:03 utc | 21

It seems theres more to the incident at Warsaw airport then suspected.
” This is damning. According to News24’s reporting the SA Air Force, which planned the President’s flights and has extensive experience with clearances & permits, warned Maj Gen Rhoode of the SAPS PPS that they did not have the correct paperwork for their weapons. It was ignored. ”
https://twitter.com/darren_olivier/status/1670349468502220800

Posted by: Shocked | Jun 18 2023 15:07 utc | 22

Posted by: Roger | Jun 18 2023 14:03 utc | 9
One Ukrainian post claimed some crews were sabotaging Leopard tanks because it is a death trap in terms that once RU spots one, they will immediately hit it with everything possible. Another report claimed they are now trying to protect remaining Leopard tanks at all costs, which would significantly limit usage in attacks.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 15:14 utc | 23

Melaleuca@5….getting the famous Widow Makers….one would think the Ukraine has enough of those…..
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 18 2023 15:19 utc | 24

John Samisoni @ 4
I’m not a Catholic. Or Orthodox. But I found this clip (below) interesting in terms of its prophetic significance to the Ukraine War …
For those who don’t know, Fr Malachi Martin is the Catholic Priest who William Peter Blatty of the Exorcist movie fame, based the character of Fr Damian Karras on.
Fr Martin made a number of outrageous (at the time) claims in the 1980s & 90s, about the “infiltration” of the Catholic Church by homosexual Satanist Bishops & even Cardinals, nearly 20 years before the Catholic pedophile Priest scandals “blew up” in the USA & Australia.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gfeWyiGqb7E&pp=ygUVTWFsYWNoaSBNYXJ0aW4gRmF0aW1h
RESPONSE: Thanks for posting. This short presentation is worth watching.

Posted by: young | Jun 18 2023 15:20 utc | 25

Posted by: b | Jun 18 2023 13:34 utc | 2
Yeah, I found today’s numbers chocking as well. To keep this so called offensive going is truly criminal!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 18 2023 15:29 utc | 26

Thanks, great details but,
here is the link to it below. cheers
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/index.html
Posted by: james | Jun 18 2023 14:52 utc | 20
After reviewing all this I still haven’t found the details on the “revealed” letter requesting that Azov/Nazi front to increase hostilities in late Jan early Feb 2022.
The details of the increased hostilities are clear, but the demand by the west to start this increase isn’t. I know I read it somewhere, I thought here at the bar but it could have been elsewhere. The letter wasn’t revealed until a few months back.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 15:33 utc | 27

Has anybody thought that if Kiev came to the negotiating table today, then the war will end with Ukraine, but NATO will still continue to wage it’s own war against Russia? Russia needs to fight the war that has been constantly waged since Nazi Germany and any cessation on Russia’s part will mean that war continues.

Posted by: Bao | Jun 18 2023 15:42 utc | 28

Carryover from the last Ukraine thread:
Some find it hard to believe that Russia was willing to negotiate a settlement that was not deeply punitive. I would suggest that these people are transferring their own emotions onto the actions of Putin (these people tend to do this a lot). If what we’ve seen of that draft are accurate, it would have been done at a political cost to Putin. But until recently Putin has shown far more regard for Ukraine than many of his western fans.
A neutral and effectively demilitarized Ukraine would have achieved almost all of what Putin wanted when this started. We haven’t seen it all and while a withdrawal of Russian forces is in there, it doesn’t mean that the LDNR wouldn’t be recognized by Russia and be independent. By then he couldn’t agree to give it back, legally.
Now it is an exhibit for the RoW showing that Russia and Putin are agreement capable, and not even prone to extracting the maximum from the other side. It also shows why the Kremlin’s attitude has hardened. The only people who will be bent out of shape by this are the fanbois who demand Putin sacrifice Russians to destroy the fanbois’ empire because we’re too weak and unwilling to bring it down from the inside. As if this is Russia’s responsibility.
I do agree with Karlof1 though, the document should be published.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 18 2023 15:43 utc | 29

One Ukrainian post claimed some crews were sabotaging Leopard tanks because it is a death trap in terms that once RU spots one, they will immediately hit it with everything possible.
(…)
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 15:14 utc | 23
No wonder when the Russian MoD announced a bounty on every Leopard.

Payments are currently being processed on the basis of reports from unit commanders in Zaporozhye and South Donetsk directions to Russian military personnel who have destroyed Leopard tanks and armoured fighting vehicles produced by the USA and other NATO countries during combat operations.

Maybe I missed it but I think it’s strange that I haven’t seen any mention of Leopard tanks in the Russian MoD’s clobber list in the past week even though a few hits have been reported elsewhere.

Posted by: Brendan | Jun 18 2023 15:45 utc | 30

Well, whatever the “result” of this African delegation visit in Ukraine and Russia, one thing has probably been made crystal clear. There is no possibility to negotiate with US proxy Kiev regime and RU has made their case clear to non-west world. Which is another diplomatic achievement in itself.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 15:49 utc | 31

@ Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 15:33 utc | 26
sorry i can’t help more… maybe someone else can..

Posted by: james | Jun 18 2023 15:52 utc | 32

Thought experiment, predicated on the belief that the more obvious a solution appears the less likely it is to be true.
The SMO official narrative is beginning to resemble a jigsaw that appears to reflect the box art but, upon closer inspection, several pieces have been forced and sometimes painted to match their surroundings. It’s hard to ascertain, using sources that are themselves often part of the deception, what a more accurate picture is; however, the hallmark of a good con is to create a scenario that confirms the mark’s pre-conceived notions. Bottom line, have the Nuland Clan been the victim of an operation to permanently weaken their institutional power and force their backers to assume a position of neutrality, lest they go down with the S.S. Ukraine. Or, have the puppet masters decided that since Ukraine has exhausted its usefulness it can now go away, along with all those who they supported?

Posted by: Milites | Jun 18 2023 15:52 utc | 33

@ Lex | Jun 18 2023 15:43 utc | 28
well said lex.. i agree with you and karlof1..

Posted by: james | Jun 18 2023 15:53 utc | 34

All quiet on NYT front.
David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
Counteroffensive Is Grueling and Costly, but Promising, Ukraine and U.S. <-- Madeleine Albright comes to mind Russia, Learning From Costly Mistakes, Shifts Battlefield Tactics Moscow’s forces remain uneven. But while bracing for a counteroffensive, they have improved discipline, coordination and air support, foreshadowing a changing war. <-- Ukrainian forces were and are even. By Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Julian E. Barnes and Natalia Yermak Why the Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up the Kakhovka Dam The Kakhovka dam was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable — from the outside. An inside job was another matter. [a diagram tells the body of the dam contained a tunnel, and experts of NYT claim that it was impossible from outside with weapons that Ukraine has.] <-- So Ukraine destroyed NS and Russia, the dam. [There is at least one theory how Ukraine did it, now we need civil engineers with spare time working together with experts on explosive and "bunker thrusting"]

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 18 2023 15:59 utc | 35

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 15:14 utc | 23
A known phenomenon since WW1, in fact Soviet WW2 AT defence was based on exactly this principle, and infantry of all sides used to refer to tanks as ‘bullet magnets’. What, I wonder, did NATO think would happen with vehicles that they themselves had ceaselessly promoted for months as game changers, in an ISR heavy environment tailor made for remote observation? Did they deliberately ‘paint’ a target on these platforms? Who really wants this offensive to fail?

Posted by: Milites | Jun 18 2023 16:00 utc | 36

Or, have the puppet masters decided that since Ukraine has exhausted its usefulness it can now go away, along with all those who they supported?
Posted by: Milites | Jun 18 2023 15:52 utc | 33
Yes, my thinking exactly. Perhaps Blinkens visit to China should provide an important clue.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 16:22 utc | 37

@ Piotr Berman | Jun 18 2023 15:59 utc | 35
right.. and russia blew up nordstream too.. these steneographers for the ‘perception management agency’ – an extension of the cia) must be paid well, lol…

Posted by: james | Jun 18 2023 16:29 utc | 38

Posted by: Ingolf Eide | Jun 18 2023 3:35 utc | 200
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/ukraine-open-thread-2023-142/comments/page/2/#comments
The brief summary you give is I believe dead accurate and could serve as a template for organising such material as is available on that crucial period.
If I might correct this part. You say, “You know far more about Europe than I do.” Wish I did! I know only two bits of it, my own country and to a much lesser extent Germany, and am quite at a loss to explain the proxy war hysteria I saw engulf both countries last year.
Nor do I wish to pose as any sort of specialist on the military or political side of this conflict. There are such here on “b’s” comment section but I’m not one of them. I do know a certain amount about what’s been happening in the Donbass since 2014. Also got some schooling on Syria from the great Colonel Lang’s site.
That comes in handy now since many of the methods I saw the Russians use in Syria – economy of force instead of “Shock and Awe”, countering the use of civilians as hostages, the employment of reconciliation teams, countering atrocity theatre – I saw employed in the earlier period of this conflict too. The Kiev ultra-nationalists said publicly they learned from ISIS when it comes to conducting this sort of war so it was obvious enough that the Russians had also learnt how to counter those techniques.
Colonel Lang knew all there was to know about the ME and was quite scathing about the activities of UK Intel/SF when it came to coaching or assisting the Jihadis in such techniques, so there was some useful grounding there too.
But apart for those two areas, some knowledge of previous events in the Donbass and whatever insight I gleaned from the Colonel’s site into how the Syrian war was fought, I come to this present conflict no better equipped to assess it than my fellows. Merely someone following Baud’s injunction “Be curious”.
There is, after all, a hell of a lot to be curious about, for a European, as one lives through the wrecking of a continent.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 18 2023 16:35 utc | 39

I get the impression that US-NATO planned for Ukraine to lose this war from the outset.
– Lots of rumors up until early 2023 that the West was sending museum-grade weapons to Ukraine.
– West seem to be withholding accurate and timely satellite data on Russian positions in the current ‘offensive’.
– The West could have warned Ukraine about the build-up and nature of the Russian defensive plans before Ukraine decided to attack.
– 3 ranks of defensive postions and dense minefields weren’t installed overnight(?).
– The Western MSM sound less confident about a Ukie victory than it/they did a month ago.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 18 2023 16:51 utc | 40

Where is the Danielle Ellsberg who will blow the whistle on this illegal and corrupt war and the lies that US officials are telling the people?
In light of Dan’s passing on Friday, we hope for the truth to emerge and a person of conscience to speak out and/or leak.

Posted by: bill wolfe | Jun 18 2023 16:54 utc | 41

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 14:15 utc | 12
Here is a german article from pre-war-time. Use a translator!
https://www.telepolis.de/features/Brain-Drain-Massenauswanderung-aus-der-Ukraine-3979258.html

Posted by: 600w | Jun 18 2023 17:00 utc | 42

With comments by Putin + subtext in English

A video about the atrocities of Ukrainian OUN (Banderites) during the Great Patriotic War was shown at the plenary session of the SPIEF
I subbed it so that it can be shared as wide as possible. People should know, people should see.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/69814

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 18 2023 17:00 utc | 43

Where is the Danielle Ellsberg who will blow the whistle on this illegal and corrupt war and the lies that US officials are telling the people?
In light of Dan’s passing on Friday, we hope for the truth to emerge and a person of conscience to speak out and/or leak.
Posted by: bill wolfe | Jun 18 2023 16:54 utc | 41
I received this by email today.
Danielle Ellsberg – Thank you for your service.
I say this not to the employees of the war machine, who in truth serve nothing besides imperial domination and the profit margins of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.
I say this to the peacemakers.
To the truth-tellers.
To the defiant ones.
To those who’ve shone the light of truth upon the blood-spattered face of the empire against their own interests for the benefit of everyone.
To those who’ve stared down the barrel of the most powerful military force ever assembled and said “Do your worst.”
To the grandparents who’ve been dragged from nuclear weapons protests in handcuffs to create a safer world for their grandchildren.
To the activists whose incurable disobedience has led them to disrupt empire managers at think tank conferences or paint NO WAR across the face of the Sydney Opera House.
To the selfless martyrs who’ve exposed the abuses of the machine knowing full well that the scales of justice are weighted heavily against them.
To the hero in Belmarsh.
To the Pentagon Papers whistleblower who today closed his gentle loving eyes for a final time.
Thank you for your service.
For serving the highest interest over your own.
For pouring everything you’ve got into the hope for a better tomorrow.
For betting everything on the hope of a healthy and harmonious world.
For creating a guiding light to help humanity steer its way home.
For seizing your moment to help make things right instead of letting it pass like everyone around you.
For somehow finding the strength to swim against the current when it would be so much easier to drift along with the madness.
For somehow finding a higher calling in this wildly dysfunctional society where everything is pointed at selfishness and meaninglessness.
For somehow cultivating something profound and authentic within yourself in the midst of a civilization of the vapid and fraudulent.
For doing your very best to get a foot on the brake pedal when everything else is accelerating toward the cliff’s edge.
For listening to that small voice within which can tolerate no more.
For turning around.
For taking your stand.
For finding the courage.
For doing what is right.
For putting truth first.
For lighting the way.
Thank you for your service.
We will do our best to carry the torch forward, and finish what you started.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Jun 18 2023 17:12 utc | 44

Posted by: 600w | Jun 18 2023 17:00 utc | 42
Great source for data ! Wow.
Apparently 8 million Ukrainians had already voted-with-their-feet between 2014 and 2018 and the pace in 2018 was 100,000 a month leaving the country
Perhaps my 12 million remains population living under Kiev rule is a generous guesstimate.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 17:21 utc | 45

Ukraine Demographics
Caveat: UNPD WPP data depends on, to a large extent, data provided to it by the relevant authorities/departments in the country concerned. So GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) applies.
UN Population Division (UNPD) World Population Prospects (WPP) July 2022 Report (it is a biannual report)
– 2022 est: ~35-36 million
– 2100 projection (median projection series): ~20 million (of course, the war could change this)
– Peak Pop’n – mid-90s: a little over 50 million
– Sharp drop – from roughly 45 to 36 million between 2020 and 2022
UNPD WPP’s note on source data for Ukraine: “Total population and distribution by age and sex estimated to be consistent with the population by age and sex of the (a) 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2001 censuses; (b) adjusted for under/over count; (c) 2007 DHS survey estimates; (d) official estimates through 2020; (e) International estimates used up to 2019; and with estimates of the subsequent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. In addition, the (a) adjusted for age heaping; (b) adjusted for under enumeration of children under age 15 have been considered.”
Main portal: https://population.un.org/wpp/
Note: UN estimates will cover the population of the territory Ukraine claims, so including Crimea and the four oblasts annexed by Russia.

Posted by: Yashuo | Jun 18 2023 17:23 utc | 46

Bill wolfe #41
Already happened and nobody cares
Jack Texiera

Posted by: Lonnie | Jun 18 2023 17:23 utc | 47

On Karaganov, Karlof1, on a previous thread, suggested that he was possibly a neoliberal shill, publishing his nuke escalation thesis in the Russian sphere, that matches neither Russia’s doctrine not interests, but might be very useful for western propagandists to incorporate into their own anti-Russian narratives. “Look at what Russian’s themselves are saying”, that sort of thing.
Assuming I read Karlof1 correctly.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 17:40 utc | 48

Roadmap to the end of the war:
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended two weeks ago after the sarcastically named “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023” was signed into law, the Treasury Department reported Friday evening. The total government debt now exceeds $32.0 trillion – hallelujah, we made it!
The USSA doesn’t have a minor Financial scratch, it has an open, bleeding wound. Someone at the very top, who have control of Biden’s Handlers, is going to have to tell him to do an Afghanistan and get the hell out of Ukraine. Americans abandoned Afghani Women, they certainly can abandon Ukraine and Europe with the same speed and same pretext. American Pravda Media can make up a New Lie for cover, they do it every day.
Of course there may be a detour to Nuclear War, before the American Crazies can declare “Victory” from their destroyed bunkers.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 17:42 utc | 49

Intel’s Manufacturing Unit in Germany Faces Financial Constraints: Germany Refuses to Increase Subsidies (update)
https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/intels-manufacturing-unit-in-germany-faces-financial-constraints-germany-refuses-to-increase-subsidies.html
My commentary: We saw this coming, and the question now is how much more of this can Germany and the rest of Europe stand, this paying the heavy cost of Russian sanctions, while America pays little while benefiting a lot as confidence in Europe sags, and it gets to export more gas and oil.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 18 2023 17:48 utc | 50

47 – I was in hospital following a suspected heart attack in April. A friend brought me newspapers and other reading matter, with one newspaper describing the arrest of Texeira.
Since then he seems to have vanished from the news, no doubt awaiting trial.

Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 18 2023 17:55 utc | 51

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 17:21 utc | 45
Heise Telepolis had a high article quality for a long time. Now the medium is under U.S. influence and has switched to “opinion articles,” which are supposed to replace information so that people don’t arrive at a “wrong” opinion. That’s where information can get in the way.
The commentary corner used to be the best, now the inquisition rules there.
You may also be interested in https://www.telepolis.de/features/Ukraine-Krieg-Armut-und-die-demografische-Implosion-8256985.html?seite=all

Posted by: 600w | Jun 18 2023 17:55 utc | 52

48 – Well, the man in an olive green T-shirt and trousers is Jewish and he is sending off the warriors. He has even stopped shaving, and this is truly an example of noble self-sacrifice… It would be churlish to expect more…

Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 18 2023 18:01 utc | 53

Gripens from Sweden. F-18s from Australia. F-16s from… whoever.
Am I bid F-15, A-10….?

Posted by: DilNir | Jun 18 2023 18:07 utc | 54

Good morning. May this war end soon and many soldiers go home to their families.
Posted by: Thomas Sharpe | Jun 18 2023 13:34 utc | 1

A capital idea, I vote for combat by champion, the Axis represented by Biden, Ukraine by Zelensky and Russia by Prigozhin.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 18:19 utc | 55

600W (balkonkraftwerk?)
Thanks for the second article – very roughly it seems that between 8 and 10 million left from 2014 until 2021 and another 8 million left after 2022.
The wage paragraph really jumped out:
57% of wage earners have less than 270/month gross income
Less than 10% make over 550/month
….. Die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung hat kaum Möglichkeiten, der Verelendung aus eigener Kraft zu entkommen. Haushaltsbefragungen der Internationalen Organisation für Migration (IOM 2023) ergaben, dass 57 Prozent aller ukrainischen Haushalte (ohne Binnenvertriebene) weniger als 10.000 Hrywnja im Monat zur Verfügung haben. Das entspricht nach offiziellem Wechselkurs rund 270 US-Dollar im Monat – wohlgemerkt für zwei bis drei Personen inklusive aller staatlichen Stützungen. Nur zehn Prozent der Haushalt verfügen über mehr als 550 US-Dollar im Monat….
Plus there was a mention of 28% unemployment rate. That huge number is difficult to fathom, because 16 million people left plus 7 million live in the DPR/LPR/Crimea and are likely not counted.
83661

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 18:26 utc | 56

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 13:59 utc | 8
Posted by: clueless | Jun 18 2023 14:07 utc | 10
oldhippie’s posted repeatedly on this, the western sector of Ukraine is finished. Comment search is your friend.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 18:32 utc | 57

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 17:42 utc | 50
——————————————————-
When you can print your own money and sale your debt on the world market, you don’t have to worry about a minor war debt.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 18 2023 18:33 utc | 58

When you can print your own money and sale your debt on the world market, you don’t have to worry about a minor war debt.
Posted by: Ed | Jun 18 2023 18:33 utc | 59
—————
Ed; de-dollarization ends step 2

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 18:38 utc | 59

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 18:26 utc | 57
Ukraine has a future only with Russia.
The poverty figures are frightening. 270 dollars a month for three people…
Here in Germany they get rent + furnishings+ 502 euros+health care, etc.
However, many only register and commute between Ukraine and appointments here. Meanwhile in Berlin there are very many Ukrainians of military age, here rather women, children, old people.
According to the following article Ukraine needed Minsk agreement not to go bankrupt. IMF funds will probably not be disbursed in case of civil war,
unless the U.S. sees it differently.
https://www.telepolis.de/features/Die-Pleite-Ukraine-erhaelt-neues-IWF-Geld-3336561.html?seite=all

Posted by: 600w | Jun 18 2023 18:43 utc | 60

‘…and independent Ukraine still exists.’
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 18 2023 15:03 utc | 21
I wonder what these people think the word ‘independent’ means. Ukraine is entirely dependent on the west, without whom they would no longer exist.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 18 2023 18:44 utc | 61

According to the Wayback Machines 2010 archive of Wikipedia’s Ukraine entry.
The 2001 census had a population of 48.5 mill.
The 2009 estimate was 46.0 mill.
The 2015 archive had an 2014 estimated population 44.2
current 2003 estimate is 36.7 million
People have been getting out of Dodge for a while, a 10% loss in the first decade and a half.

Posted by: Bilejones | Jun 18 2023 18:46 utc | 62

John Helmer’s latest is well worth a read/listen
Putin’s Warning on the F-16: NATO’s Article Five is Now For Burning
https://johnhelmer.net/putins-warning-on-the-f-16-natos-article-five-is-now-for-burning/
Will NATO generals go to the brink or blink?

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 18 2023 18:56 utc | 63

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 18 2023 15:59 utc | 35
Ridiculous NYT smoke screen.
As things stand, I doubt we’ll even learn what the true security situation was in the area of the dam, whether RF had control of the water level, whether or not it was their decision to fill the dam to the record high level at which it ultimately failed. Was the area just another semi-abandoned grey zone where anyone caught in the open could expect to be fired on by Ukrainian mortar crews?
The lesson to be learned is that defense of the dam should have been handed over to Wagner from the outset.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 19:01 utc | 64

Barflies,
The article 600W linked in #61 at 18:43 is from 2016 and goes into detail describing Kiev‘s gov‘t budget fiascos.
It’s worth reading

Posted by: Exile | Jun 18 2023 19:08 utc | 65

I get the impression that US-NATO planned for Ukraine to lose this war from the outset.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 18 2023 16:51 utc | 40
Don’t think so. US-NATO really just wanted as much damage, humanitarian, social and political chaos as possible for Russia.
-Graham; best use of money ever
-Ben Hodges: The AFU attack will be something unforeseen we have never witnessed before (yes it was Ben, absolute unparalleled slaughter)
We should remember that the way Nato convinced Zelly or whoever is in charge pull the 2022 Istanbul negotiations off was by promising, especially, to give Himars and ATACMS to Ukraine. It was all based on the new Nato doctrine, according to which they could defeat RU forces with these precision weapons, and human wave AFU would run and mop up the rest. Then the economic sanctions collapse economy, society, Putin will fall, country break up to pieces. Etc.
They certainly planned for AFU winning and smashing RU, have no doubt about it.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 19:08 utc | 66

$270 per month are the wages of anti-communism worth fighting for.
Pure hardscrabble bootstraps capitalism renders those wages.
With capitalism, handouts and socialism are awarded to the rich thru subsidies, bailouts, tax abatement. But none for the commons. The commons get a capitalist boot right up their arses. $270 per month.
Maybe if Monsanto can steal that land, they’ll pay $290 per month.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 18 2023 19:22 utc | 67

How do you build an army of 360 000 soldiers in 6-7 years time as the Ukraine has done. You starve ordinary people who are locked in the country with Visa restrictions to every other country. Declining living- standards make people sign up to wages guarantied by the Usa/Nato.
Look at Finland now- decreasing livings standards. RT writes today about a coming food shortage in Latvia. The rest of the European countries will follow. Stoltenberg will build a Nato army of 300 000 soldiers.
So this is how the future looks for Europeans
Pure evil

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 18 2023 19:23 utc | 68

@600w 61
thx for the hint.
Nicolai Petro in his “The Tragedy of Ukraine” has some good insight too.
Especially mind-boggling how the Kiev fucked up the Covid Situation in Ukraine.
Totally regardless what people think about the virus situation it is worthwhile in its minutes of utter incompetence.
I might post some paragraphs if I find time
If you can get a copy read it and spread it.
Not necessarily for the bar, but for everyone else who might think we barflies are conspirationalist idiots and will only trust an established scholar.

Posted by: AG | Jun 18 2023 19:30 utc | 69

@b
Having checked the video in Russian – you got the MOD report wrong.
Most clear is the map in the videos.
Konaschenkow reports on 5 frontline sections.
But before he does so, he mentions details from single battles at the first section – to sum them up 35 tanks overall on this section.
The other 4 sections don’t have destroyed tanks.
So it is 35 tanks at all, and all the other numbers are to high as well.

Posted by: bg13 | Jun 18 2023 19:39 utc | 70

Where is the Danielle Ellsberg who will blow the whistle on this illegal and corrupt war and the lies that US officials are telling the people?
In light of Dan’s passing on Friday, we hope for the truth to emerge and a person of conscience to speak out and/or leak.
Posted by: bill wolfe | Jun 18 2023 16:54 utc | 41
#################
Very few of the non-mouth breathers left in the West are not aware that they are being constantly manipulated and lied to.
There is no shortage of truth-tellers. There is a serious lack of people willing to act or organize effectively based on those revelations.
I’m not prescribing any particular form of action (note, we should never ever employ violence).
Truth-tellers rarely get shot. It’s always the organizers who get shot. The truth-tellers are a pressure-release valve for the wicked, everyone knows what is wrong but has been trained and encouraged to complain and to wallow in their impotence. I understand not wanting to get shot. I also understand hypocrisy. People who complain and do nothing about it, are in a persistent state of self-abuse.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 18 2023 19:41 utc | 71

The Reichtag fire ocurred Monday 27 February 1933.
It took Hitler 7 years to build the German army with Bush/ Morgan Stanley money.
Young men that find no jobs and see no future will sign up for the army.
And of cource you add the propaganda.
Then sanctions:
“The beginning of the war resulted in a British blockade which seriously restricted German access to world markets. Petroleum, sugar, coffee, chocolate and cotton were all extremely scarce. Germany used coal gasification to replace petroleum imports to a limited extent, and relied on Romanian oilfields at Ploiești. Germany was dependent on Sweden for the majority of their iron ore production, and relied on Spain and Portugal to provide tungsten. Switzerland continued to trade with Germany, and was very useful as a neutral country friendly to Germany. Until the declaration of war on the Soviet Union, the Third Reich received large supplies of grain and raw materials from the USSR, which they paid for with industrial machinery, weapons, and even German designs for a battleship. In the spring of 1940, the Soviet Union asked for two chemical plants as compensation for raw materials. The German government declined, at the insistence of the military.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany
Stoltenberg will of cource succeed and should be named together with other great army builders.
This is not history rhymes- it is history repeat it self
He will have his bigger war

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 18 2023 19:41 utc | 72

And Thanks Ellsberg
Free Assange and the rest
SlavaLIRA

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 18 2023 19:44 utc | 73

Has anyone heard any news about Gonzalo Lira/ A couple of weeks ago I saw a sad note on line from his father, but no word on how he is faring in prison, or if he has any contact with anyone.
Always contentious and outspoken, unwise surely … wondered how he managed to survive so long. Is there anyone at all who can speak up for him in Ukraine?

Posted by: medo | Jun 18 2023 19:49 utc | 74

@Hoarsewhisperer
I do have a feeling that a part of the US administration, wants Ukraine to crash and burn against the Russians with the reasoning that the US can have its excuse to pivot and stop committing resources to a lost cause.
Their only issue is timing, because ideally they’d want this post-election but circumstances are pointing towards a much faster disaster for Ukraine, and by extension, the current White House. You can see that parts of the establishment (I guess mostly those with business interests in China, i.e. the moneyed globalists) are smelling blood in the water and want to take over and prevent the neocons from ruining their business dealings with China. Its the only conceivable reason that for example Musk would go to China in what has turned out to be a deeply humiliating signal for the Biden administration. In fact, it was a borderline revolutionary move given the timing involved.
The message sent by Beijing couldn’t have been more clear – we, the Chinese, can do business with you (Musk and whomever he represents) but not with ‘them’ (Nuland-Biden).
Based on these circumstances, it seems that the Ukrainian adventure is drawing to a close but whether that’s the actual death knell of the neocons remains to be seen.

Posted by: Plebs | Jun 18 2023 19:50 utc | 75

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 18 2023 14:29 utc | 17
Thanks for that.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 19:55 utc | 76

Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 18 2023 16:51 utc | 40
*** I get the impression that US-NATO planned for Ukraine to lose this war from the outset.***
The Khazarians and BlacRock don’t really need a lot of Ukrainians, other than for exploitation as as menial labourers and suchlike things.
(how many slaves per *real* person is it a certain set of theologians promise? — without the slightest hint of disapproval from wokists, western religionists and liberals)
US/NATO/UK forces probably reckon they could grab themselves a naval base at Odessa later, if it isn’t actually in Russia by the end of the present war. Any excuse would do.
Note how the US recently (corruptly and anti-democratically) acquired a base area in New Guinea.

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 18 2023 19:58 utc | 77

“The message sent by Beijing couldn’t have been more clear – we, the Chinese, can do business with you (Musk and whomever he represents) but not with ‘them’ (Nuland-Biden).”
Doing business w/Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland is a death sentence:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the

Posted by: Doim | Jun 18 2023 20:07 utc | 78

Seymour Hersh: As Ukraine begins a counter-offensive and Biden’s hawks look on, new rhetoric out of Russia points to a revival of the nuclear threat
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/partners-in-doomsday

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 18 2023 20:13 utc | 79

Look at Finland now- decreasing livings standards. RT writes today about a coming food shortage in Latvia. The rest of the European countries will follow. Stoltenberg will build a Nato army of 300 000 soldiers.
So this is how the future looks for Europeans
Pure evil
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 18 2023 19:23 utc | 69
What makes Finland potentially much easier than Ukraine is that there’s no political opposition to deal with, practically no alternative media to need to shut down (the last two or three sites closed within a week of Finland joining Nato), and people generally follow the law and the government like slaves, no matter how stupid the law and no matter what foreigners run the government. They’ve been like that for centuries. Sweden always killed off finns as disposable soldiers for its wars abroad, and finns are mainly proud of that, if they are at all aware of it. Nothing new with the Nato plans then.
Instead of helping each other and standing together like almost any other nationality, Finnish people also have the tendency to suffer alone and to eagerly tip their neighbours/children to the officials. Anything not to cause trouble to the government. I’ve joked to my friends that if the government or EU wanted to kill everyone in Finland, they’d just add some ridiculous new tax, or raise electricity prices tenfold, or something else to bankrupt finns, and each one would, one by one and alone, meekly and without complaint leave their homes, lie down in the snow and die. My friends were highly offended, but they couldn’t disagree.

Posted by: Mike | Jun 18 2023 20:15 utc | 80

It doesn’t matter much to the US if a war is won or lost
…Analyst News
As the war in Ukraine drags on, America’s arms industry reaps the profits
Weapons manufacturers rake in a fortune as arms flood into Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe. Experts warn sending more will only fuel continued global violence. . .here
“War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. “–Smedley Butler

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 18 2023 20:22 utc | 81

anon2020 | Jun 18 2023 17:40 utc | 49–
That’s close enough for government work. As I wrote, I’ve dissected some of his previous op/eds and found them rather poor work for someone with his CV. The key is he does inhabit a high perch with its own mouthpiece, but one must ask why he no longer advises Putin. There were many flacks who continued within the Russian government and advisory organs after Putin’s presidency began–it wasn’t just the Oligarchs and Kleptocrats he had to smoke out and defuse. The bribes offered by the West found many takers.
Putin’s line on what it is and means to be Russian hasn’t wavered since 2000; indeed, it’s become more sophisticated over the years. I wrote a few short essays about Putin’s political-economic philosophy and what I called Putin’s Doctrine mostly prior to the SMO, but the main way to learn about Putin is to read what he says in all manner of contexts. The same can be said of Lavrov and most of Team Putin. Their honesty and openness in comparison to Western politicos is beyond refreshing. Much the same can be said for Xi and his team. The big difference as you might gather is credibility. What Russia and China say they will do they do. How many trillions has the G-7 promised to provide the Global South for development and other means of support and how many millions were actually delivered? The so-called Grain Deal is one glaring example of far too many. The result is easily seen when looking at the Big Picture: Only the liars are supporting the liars, and their numbers are dwindling.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 20:30 utc | 82

Ilya Fabrichnikov: Why I disagree with the call for Russia to use its nuclear weapons against the West
On Karaganov’s try-out to push NATO narrative into the minds of Russian people.
It was also on RT, but here is maybe more accessible to the wider crowd.
Very good collateral rebuke.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 18 2023 20:36 utc | 83

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended two weeks ago after the sarcastically named “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023” was signed into law, the Treasury Department reported Friday evening. The total government debt now exceeds $32.0 trillion – hallelujah, we made it!
Posted by: kupkee | Jun 18 2023 17:42 utc | 50
I have seen quarterly data, and for this year we have only Q1.
Q1 2022 30.40 T
Q1 2023 31.45 T
Because of inflation, debt increased very little in constant dollars, and probably decreased as percentage of GDP in current dollars. One can scratch the definition of “public debt” etc., but the situation is not dire, yet.
At this time, USG benefits from multiyear bonds that were issued with low interest rates so real interest rate on national debt are negative, inflation increased and bond interest did not.
Of course, in time the bonds will mature and will need to be refinanced, so it would be prudent to decrease the deficit, but it is not urgent. Alas. And the scope of those indicators, 0.1 T spend this year on Ukraine or not makes paltry difference.
Mind you, Biden Administration took a huge obligation for forgiveness of qualified student debt, and that was undone in the deal with GOP. And there could be some other prudent steps, although I was to busy with the war to search for details. That said, de-dolarization is gradual, but its effect on the demand for US bonds, and thus on the interest rate of those bond may be fast to come, so some prudency would help, but we should not forget the needy.
And who is more needy than the beneficiaries of tax heavens? And US Congress is to humane toward truly needy to consider abrogating the artificial decreases in corporate tax rates for corporations that operate in multiple countries. It used to be that both parties were voicing “closing loopholes slogan, but after talking with potential suffers, Congress — and the Administration — reconsider.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 18 2023 20:40 utc | 84

Plebs @76:

You can see that parts of the establishment (I guess mostly those with business interests in China, i.e. the moneyed globalists) are smelling blood in the water and want to take over and prevent the neocons from ruining their business dealings with China. Its the only conceivable reason that for example Musk would go to China in what has turned out to be a deeply humiliating signal for the Biden administration.

Oligarchs have no nationality unless they need an army. Musk only needs US military dollars right now, not cannon fodder, so he doesn’t need to pretend to be a patriot. Furthermore, Musk is raking in cash from the US military as honestly as a businessman can: by giving the military the best deal they can find anywhere for their buck.
Musk sees money to be made in China, but he has to earn it on the Communists’ terms. The political system is not up for sale in China like it is in the West, but Musk seems to be OK with that.
The message here should be very clear: China is dealing directly with America’s overlords. People like Gates and Musk are higher in the western hierarchy than Biden.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 20:41 utc | 85

Perhaps the best indication that things aren’t going well for Ye Olde Counteroffensive is this headline I saw on the Telegraph, of all places:
“Prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to falter”
Narrative reshaping in play!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 18 2023 20:45 utc | 86

Posted by: Lex | Jun 18 2023 15:43 utc | 29
“A neutral and effectively demilitarized Ukraine would have achieved almost all of what Putin wanted when this started.”
“Almost” isn’t all. Also, Putin has never stated explicitly what Russia wanted. He merely stated the pre-conditions for what Russia wants, i.e., demilitarization and de-Nazification, in other words, no Ukraine military and no Ukraine regime. How do we imagine that leaving Zelensky in power would have achieved either of those outcomes, not to mention how those “security guarantees” BY THE US would have been “honored”.
I submit that this draft proposal would have been enhanced by Russia with many more requirements which would have been unacceptable – and proved unacceptable – to the West.
If I’m not incorrect, also, no one has seen the full document in all its details. Also recall that this was a draft treaty, open to rejection by either side.
If you go back and look at the reports at the time, such a deal was not so clear cut as has been represented by everyone subsequently:
March 16…
Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
March 16…
Ukraine rejects Russian neutrality proposals, says peace deal must offer security
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/16/Ukraine-rejects-Russian-neutrality-proposals-says-peace-deal-must-offer-security-
March 29…
Ukraine Proposes Neutral Status With Guarantees, and Zelensky Seeks More Western Help
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-hold-talks-as-zelensky-criticizes-west-on-sanctions-arms-11648549561
April 3…
Draft Russia-Ukraine peace deal not ready to be discussed by leaders: Moscow
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/draft-russia-ukraine-peace-deal-not-ready-to-be-discussed-by-leaders-moscow/2554183
April 6…
Russia lists ‘goodwill gesture’ for talks, has a condition to end Ukraine war
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/ukraine-russia-lists-goodwill-gesture-for-talks-but-has-a-condition-to-end-war-101649239938256.html
April 6…
Russia’s Envoy to U.S. Says Ukraine War Crime Claims Threaten Peace Talks
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-envoy-us-says-ukraine-war-crime-claims-threaten-peace-talks-1695775
April 6…
Russian attacks on Ukraine civilians stall peace talks, says Turkish mediator
https://www.ft.com/content/c41c7ef0-e03a-4963-8793-e8931ba29e39
April 7…
Russia says Ukraine presented ‘unacceptable’ draft peace deal
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-presented-unacceptable-draft-peace-deal-2022-04-07/

The Kremlin has said talks with Ukraine are not progressing as rapidly as it would like, and has accused the West of trying to derail negotiations by raising war crimes allegations against Russian troops in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.
Lavrov said on Thursday that Ukraine had presented a draft agreement on Wednesday that deviated from proposals both sides’ negotiators had agreed on.
Ukraine’s new draft, according to Lavrov, said the status of Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, should be raised at a meeting between the two countries’ presidents.
It also said Ukraine could hold military drills with foreign countries without receiving Russia’s permission, something Moscow disagrees with.
“Such inability to agree once again highlights Kyiv’s true intentions, its position of drawing out and even undermining the talks by moving away from the understandings reached,” Lavrov said, adding that the proposals were “unacceptable”.

April 11…
Russia will not pause military operation in Ukraine for peace talks
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-not-pause-military-operation-ukraine-peace-talks-2022-04-11/
April 12…
Vladimir Putin says peace talks with Ukraine at ‘dead end’
https://www.ft.com/content/6f6f74ae-56bd-45e7-ad40-51a87775f1a6

We reached a certain level of agreements in Istanbul, which stated that security guarantees for Ukraine . . . would not spread to Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas,” Putin said on Tuesday, speaking publicly about Russia’s military activity after a prolonged silence on the subject.
“We acted to create conditions to continue talks,” he added. “Instead, we faced the provocation in Bucha and, what’s most important, the Ukrainian side deviated from the Istanbul agreements.”
Now, “the security demands are one thing, and issues of regulating relations on Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas are taken outside of those agreements”, Putin said. “So we are back to the dead-end situation.”

April 14…
Kremlin lacks information about Russia-Ukraine peace talks
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/kremlin-lacks-information-about-russia-ukraine-peace-talks/2563589
And when did Boris Johnson visit Ukraine? April 9th… But it was April 7 that Lavrov said the Ukraine position had deviated from the proposed peace deal…
So the conventional wisdom that Boris Johnson’s visit derailed the peace process is simply incorrect.
Now we have Putin declaring that the peace talks were successful? Is he referring to the 15-point draft proposal which was presented in March? Or is he referring to whatever the Ukrainians agreed to in early April – before April 7 when Lavrov declared the Ukrainians had deviated from that agreement?
Does anyone know? HAS ANYONE SEEN THE DOCUMENTS?
But this is all irrelevant because primarily Ukraine neutrality does absolutely nothing to counter the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania, which Putin has equally established on several occasions as his primary concern from NATO. Ray McGovern, in his speech to the Boston peace group, explicitly laid that out.
I suggest everyone review McGovern’s speech:
If the Missile Fits, Beware: Ray McGovern on US missile site in Romania and Poland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUuVOzE-sRY
THIS is why there is a Ukraine war going on.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 20:46 utc | 87

Thing largest thing I am somewhat dreading is what is going to happen when Ukraine capitulates. The west so far has been able to mesmerize the majority of the public into not looking at the details of this war at just take on faith what the governments and mainstream press are lying to them about. Just like with Iraq. And much like with Iraq people are going to start looking for answers when failure. In Iraq where the people are brown and Hussain was easy to demonize due to his own governance they had some cover of moral ambiguity to at least pretend it was not an act of pure evil. This time you don’t have to dig very deep to get to the NAZI core that we have been backing. This is going to be a shock to the general public unlike anything we have seen before.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 18 2023 20:47 utc | 88

Asking, has anyone heard any news regarding Gonzalo Lira? All I know is that he is in prison … for years. I presume that is settled. Has he had any contact on the outside?
Always interesting and contentious, speaking out in a way which was obviously hazardous. Hope he survives to speak another day!

Posted by: medo | Jun 18 2023 20:49 utc | 89

Can you imagine how much Blackrock is making from the deaths of Ukro and Russian soldiers?
Every. Single. Time
From the beginning of time.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 20:50 utc | 90

badjoke @89: “This is going to be a shock to the general public unlike anything we have seen before.”
There are precedents. The US 2016 election results drove millions of Americans to psychotic-break level meltdowns that few have recovered from even today. Something they believed was impossible happened and they rejected reality to avoid accepting it. When the Ukraine is unambiguously defeated it will lead to a very similar mass psychosis in the West as Trump Derangement Syndrome. I would like to imagine that event will lead to people “snapping back” to reality, but feeble minds are not that resilient, and most westerners have very feeble minds (excessively laundered, like an old pair of denim jeans).

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 21:01 utc | 91

Breaking news: Zelensky asks the west $400 billion to become the “energy hub” for Europe.
Yeah, and where are the gas and oil sources to support that sort of “hub”? They are all in Kharkov, Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy and Lugansk, with a miniscule field in Lvov.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 18 2023 21:07 utc | 92

Richard Steven Hack | Jun 18 2023 20:46 utc | 88–
The December 2021 Security Proposals were quite specific, but didn’t deal directly with Ukraine, but Ukraine’s status was subsumed within the proposals. The key as I continue to remind is the implementation of the Indivisibility of Security Doctrine that had already been defined on many different occasions and was contained in three OSCE Treaties and is the basis of the UN Charter. Under that Doctrine, neither Russia nor Ukraine can threaten the others security. As soon as the 2014 Coup was consummated, Ukraine became a threat to Russian security, and to the security of all Russian speakers within Ukraine. The proposals promised to undertake a “military technical operation” if they were ignored which they were. And so we have the SMO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 21:10 utc | 93

Ukraine must ‘meet the same standards’ to join NATO, Biden says

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/ukraine-same-standards-join-nato-biden

Ukraine will not get a fast track to join NATO, President Joe Biden said late Saturday.
Speaking after a campaign rally with union boosters, Biden was asked by reporters if he’d make it easy for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“No,” Biden said. “Because they’ve got to meet the same standards. So we’re not going to make it easy.”
The president said Ukraine has the “ability to coordinate military” as it defends itself from the Russian invasion, but the country must “meet all the standards” to fully join NATO.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 18 2023 21:13 utc | 94

William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 21:01 utc | 92–
Quite. Their minds are worn out and shredded at the knees and elsewhere. But then that’s the fashion–to be a dork.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 18 2023 21:13 utc | 95

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 18 2023 13:54 utc | 4
F16/18s and other so called wunderwaffe are merely Western countries hoping to cash in by getting rid of their old useless weapons. They have no real interest if these will help Ukraine.
A big deal is being made about Russian helicopters being great tank/armour killers.
People quickly forget that Russian Artillery has been responsible for over 40% of all damage.
When Wikipedia used to be reliable, (I know, showing my age!) you could read about a single Russian fire strike mission that wiped out an entire armoured Brigade during the 2008 Georgian War. In fact, the US Army even wrote about it. Can’t find any that online anymore.

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 18 2023 21:13 utc | 96

unimperator | Jun 18 2023 21:07 utc | 93
Blackrock doesn’t care about the short goals losses, they only care about the long goal gains.
Every. Single. Time.
They look at the future, Putin will not live forever.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:14 utc | 97

When people start to realize (((their))) long term game, maybe they’ll finally realize (((who))) the true enemy is.
History always repeats, but most don’t get it.
Every. Single. Time.
Blackrock thinks they’ll succeed. They will if we let them.

Posted by: gringo | Jun 18 2023 21:24 utc | 98

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 18 2023 21:01 utc | 92
That was a stage managed fight where the MSM was able to make a false claim about sides. This time all avenues of the MSM have been on the exact same page. Lying to the public about sending NAZI’s to try and genocide part of an ethnic group that has nuclear weapons. There are going to be too many people who realize that all the press is less valuable a source of information about todays world than a copy of Pravda from January 1979. This one they have risked the narrative control that the oligarchy has enjoyed since the FCC was created back in the 1920’s.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 18 2023 21:26 utc | 99

If I was President Putin I would have my propaganda people do everything to cause mutiny among the Ukraine military/Cannon fodder. Promise them they wouldn’t be returned to the Ukraine unless they chose to. How can anyone sacrifice their lives for the sick oligarchies of the Ukraine and the west? Of course I would have been long gone from the corruption ridden poverty state of the Ukraine.

Posted by: Bob | Jun 18 2023 21:26 utc | 100