According to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Kiev’s sponsors reportedly demanded that the regime eliminate as many Russians as possible as a condition for sending weapons. The case shows how the West really does not expect a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, only seeking to weaken Russia as much as possible.
Kiev’s defense chief Aleksey Reznikov claimed during an interview to Foreign Policy that Western supporters, before establishing a policy of unlimited military aid, demanded from Ukraine that as many Russian citizens as possible be killed. Once the extermination of Russians is guaranteed, Western support will be maintained “as long as it takes”, informed the minister.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 15 2023 16:36 utc | 92
This fanfic is garbage, 1/10, would not read again. It is still better than the “Our source in the OP” stuff Down South posts, though.

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 15 2023 17:42 utc | 104

@karlof1 #102
LIVE: Russian Foreign Ministry Press Briefing | Russia – Ukraine War Update [today-2hrs 14 mins ]
dubbed in English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGoME1F1Hk
Karaganov is out of sync with RF power – advocating nuclear is madness

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 15 2023 17:49 utc | 106

@ james | Jun 15 2023 16:33 utc | 90
fake james… reported..

Posted by: james | Jun 15 2023 17:54 utc | 108

monetary attacks and sanctions from the USA
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 15 2023 17:40 utc | 106
If by “monetary attacks” you imply multi-decade, multi-billion RUB G7-backed “investor” embezzling and laundering in London, I agree. RF has never been an IMF member state.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 15 2023 17:57 utc | 110

@ karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 17:29 utc | 102
thanks for all that..
@ Ghost of Zanon | Jun 15 2023 17:49 utc | 108
i agree with you in much of that.. thanks for stating it.. the only part i am unsure about is martin armstrongs 2030 forecast..

Posted by: james | Jun 15 2023 18:13 utc | 112

iEarlGrey is still on Rumble Artyomovsk Resident describes Western Media fakes and Ukrop War Crimes
Wading through the Foreign Affairs recent article An Unwinnable War Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine.

Fifteen months of fighting has made clear that neither side has the capacity—even with external help—to achieve a decisive military victory over the other. Regardless of how much territory Ukrainian forces can liberate, Russia will maintain the capability to pose a permanent threat to Ukraine. The Ukrainian military will also have the capacity to hold at risk any areas of the country occupied by Russian forces—and to impose costs on military and civilian targets within Russia itself.

The standard “quagmire” delusional wet dream of the US policy elite, with Russia unable to gain a decisive military victory. If Russia thoroughly degrades the remaining well-trained and equipped Ukrainian forces during the current Ukrainian offensive, it has the opportunity to crush this narrative with a decisive advance. Otherwise, the Ukrainian military will continue for a while until it collapses. Neither outcome supports the “quagmire” delusion that the policy elites so want to be true and/or are unable to reject.
The real US error it seems is not to have poked the bear one time too many, but to have been “ambiguous” about its aims. Now it needs to define an endgame it seems, of course with the assumption that the US can still act to impose terms rather than Russia imposing its own terms. All based upon delusional thoughts of Ukrainian capabilities:

even if Kyiv were successful beyond all expectations and forced Russian troops to retreat across the international border, Moscow would not necessarily stop fighting. But few in the West expect that outcome at any point, let alone in the near term. Instead, the optimistic expectation for the coming months is that the Ukrainians will make some gains in the south, perhaps retaking parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, or push back the Russian assault in the east … The hope in Western capitals is that Kyiv’s gains on the battlefield will then force Putin to the negotiating table. And it is possible that another tactical setback would diminish Moscow’s optimism about continued fighting … Ukraine has built an impressive fighting force with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of aid, extensive training, and intelligence support from the West. The Ukrainian armed forces will be able to hold at risk any areas under Russian occupation.

Even more delusional below, the Russian forces were in better shape in 2022 before the call up of 300,000 men, the additional 150,000 volunteers and the 150,000 new contract soldiers? Before the ramp up of Russian weapons production? These idiots are believing their own propaganda!

In early 2022, when [Russia’s] forces were in far better shape

No, its not the Ukrainian army that has suffered devastating losses, its the Russians! Must have been all those “human wave” attacks. Then they fess up to the geopolitical reality, that the quagmire is really that of the West as they have to feed the never ending gluttony of Ukraine, threatens putting actual NATO troops at the tender mercies of the Russian military, and means that the West is unable to focus on big bad China:

A long war between Russia and Ukraine will also be highly problematic for the United States and its allies, as a recent RAND study I co-authored with the political scientist Miranda Priebe shows. A protracted conflict would keep the risk of possible escalation—either to Russian nuclear use or to a Russian-NATO war—at its current elevated level. Ukraine would be on near-total economic and military life support from the West, which will eventually cause budgetary challenges for Western countries and readiness problems for their militaries. The global economic fallout of the war, including the volatility in grain and energy prices, would persist. The United States would be unable to focus its resources on other priorities, and Russian dependence on China would deepen. Although a long war would also further weaken Russia, that benefit does not outweigh these costs.

Then they push for a Korea style armistice, freezing the conflict. A solution which will be completely unacceptable to Russia, as it will even leave certain parts of Russia occupied by Ukraine. With a “coercion and diplomacy” approach that assumes that the West/Ukraine is capable of any such coercion (the coercion will be on the Russian foot), and that Russia would even agree to anything without a stop to Western military support for Ukraine and the removal of the current Ukrainian government by a neutral one running a demilitarized country. Personally, I consider that we are already far past that solution and the longer the war goes on the greater the Russian demands will be.

In the short term, that means both continuing to help Kyiv with the counteroffensive and beginning parallel discussions with allies and Ukraine about the endgame. In principle, opening a negotiation track with Russia should complement, not contradict, the push on the battlefield. If Ukraine’s gains make the Kremlin more willing to compromise, the only way to know that would be through a functioning diplomatic channel. Setting up such a channel should not cause either Ukraine or its Western partners to let up the pressure on Russia. An effective strategy will require both coercion and diplomacy. One cannot come at the expense of the other.

At least they seem to get that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, but then all about Western “security guarantees” which are pretty much de facto membership. Then they give away the fact that this will be just like Minsk 1 and Minsk 2, serving to give Ukraine time to rebuild and time to further squeeze Russia – negotiations in bad faith. The only way these delusional policy elites and their backers will be brought nearer to reality is by a whole series of defeats, starting with Russia crushing the Ukrainian army. But that will only be the start:

An endgame premised on an armistice would leave Ukraine—at least temporarily—without all its territory. But the country would have the opportunity to recover economically, and the death and destruction would end. It would remain locked in a conflict with Russia over the areas occupied by Moscow, but that conflict would play out in the political, cultural, and economic domains, where, with Western support, Ukraine would have advantages. The successful reunification of Germany, in 1990, another country divided by terms of peace, demonstrates that focusing on nonmilitary elements of the contestation can produce results. Meanwhile, a Russian-Ukrainian armistice would also not end the West’s confrontation with Russia, but the risks of a direct military clash would decrease dramatically, and the global consequences of the war would be mitigated.

As an academic, I do find it laughable that such “experts” use pseudo-scientific statistical analyses of highly heterogeneous previous conflicts to support their proposals. Such is the nature of mainstream international relations “scholarship” in North America, intellectual mutton masquerading as lamb. e.g.

Using data from conflicts between 1946 and 1997, the political scientist Virginia Page Fortna has shown that strong agreements that arrange for demilitarized zones, third-party guarantees, peacekeeping, or joint commissions for dispute resolution and contain specific (versus vague) language produced more lasting cease-fires. These mechanisms reinforce the principles of reciprocity and deterrence that allow sworn enemies to achieve peace without resolving their fundamental differences. Because these mechanisms will be challenging to adapt to the Ukraine war, governments need to work on developing them now.

A mixture of spurious correlation (much stemming from the spurious assignment of highly complex and heterogeneous events to simplistic grouping and numeric assignment) and statements of the blindingly obvious. The number of obvious confounding variables not analyzed is a tell tale sign of such analyses.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 18:15 utc | 114

Don Firineach | Jun 15 2023 17:49 utc | 109–
Thanks Don! The videos don’t suit my purposes unfortunately as there’s no text to copy/paste and present. The transcript is almost complete. There’s a very important document linked in the Ukraine section that typepad won’t allow me to provide.
Pepe Escobar has written on Putin’s conference with Russia’s War Correspondents and cites this portion which IMO rebutted Karaganov before he wrote his essay:
“We were forced to try to end the war that the West started in 2014 by force of arms. And Russia will end this war by force of arms, freeing the entire territory of the former Ukraine from the United States and Ukrainian Nazis. There are no other options. The Ukrainian army of the US and NATO will be defeated, no matter what new types of weapons it receives from the West. The more weapons there are, the fewer Ukrainians and what used to be Ukraine will remain. Direct intervention by NATO’s European armies will not change the outcome. But in this case, the fire of war will engulf the whole of Europe. It looks like the US is ready for that too.” [My Emphasis]
So, we have it from Putin that the SMO includes the liberation of all Ukraine; and if NATO directly enters the conflict, the war will be brought to those nation’s capitals and their remaining major industrial centers. So far, there hasn’t been any announced reaction from NATO to Putin’s words. Perhaps NATO dismissed the entire conference and didn’t bother to read its transcript. There was only one Q related to that meeting and it didn’t ask about Putin’s words cited above. There’s more to Escobar’s article that’s important. But the above is the most important and least reported on part of that entire exercise, which I fand amazing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 18:22 utc | 116

Has Soros Spent all his billions yet? We know he made billions, and we know he has been spending them. But his funds are not limitless.
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jun 15 2023 14:07 utc | 39
Re: Soros funding: G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island (origin of the Federal Reserve Bank), during a recent interview with Daniella Cambone of Stansberry Research, asserted that Soros has always been and remains a Rothschild pawn and that his funding is therefore limited only by his obedience to Rothschild dictates.
Griffin has a long record of serious research and factual reporting.

Posted by: Ciaran | Jun 15 2023 18:29 utc | 118

@Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 15 2023 17:40 utc | 106

Russia unlike a banana republic under the boot of the hegemon or even one of their vassals (just look at the state their right hand lackey UK is in) was since 1997 investing its energy revenue back into its real economy. CMIIW but I read that Russia was growing up to 5%y since 1997 (almost Chinese levels) the recessions there were all caused by monetary attacks and sanctions from the USA, all of which were short and swift as the sanctions evermore forced a transition away from western neoliberaism towards tried and true industrial Keynesians. We in the west including most of the population of the USA should all have been so lucky to have suffered such “blowback”.

Thats far too an optimistic picture of Russia. It grew fast from 2000 to 2012 (with a big contraction during the GFC) due to the bull market in oil prices and other commodities, a reverse of the fall to US$10/barrel in the late 90s which produced the Russian debt default. That growth was simply recovering some of the devastating loss during the 1990s, of about 50% of GDP. China’s growth was on top of the rapid growth of the previous two decades. Putin also managed to stabilize the state, and manage to use a lot of those oil revenues for the benefit of Russians in general instead of just the oligarchs. The combination of the collapse in oil prices in 2014 and the sanctions over Crimea hit the Russian economy hard.
Since 2014 the Russian economy has stagnated. It is also still very neoliberal, with a small state footprint as a percentage of GDP and with the oligarchs still holding significant power (although that power has been further reduced by the 2022 sanctions). Putin has managed his relatively weak hand very well, and that hand may have improved over the past year, but Russia is still a relatively weak state versus the West and China.
Russian GDP growth: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual
Although GDP per capita is now about 2.5 times that of the 1990s, lets remember that the baseline is from the bottom of a massive economic slump. With the massive increase in economic inequality versus Soviet times, it is quite likely that the average Russian is still less well off than during the last years of the Soviet Union while the nomenklatura elements who still benefit from the stealing of the nation’s assets are infinitely richer than in Soviet times.
If we assume that the old Soviet economy was capable of slow growth (1-2% per year), then the average Russian would be much better off if the USSR had not collapsed. The actual collapse did not happen until Gorbachev started to actively dismantle the planning system (that is when the queues started due to the rapid growth of the black market), and really accelerated with the economic dislocation of the break up of the USSR followed by Gaidars lunatic overnight “shock therapy”. The USSR of 1985 was not collapsing, it was still capable of a slow growth rate. A path that followed the incremental approach of China, which may not have been possible until the success of such an approach became obvious in the case of China in the 1990s, may have allowed the USSR to move to perhaps a 2-3% growth rate. Thats not far off from the US growth rate over the same period.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 18:47 utc | 120

@Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 18:22 utc | 119

So, we have it from Putin that the SMO includes the liberation of all Ukraine; and if NATO directly enters the conflict, the war will be brought to those nation’s capitals and their remaining major industrial centers. So far, there hasn’t been any announced reaction from NATO to Putin’s words. Perhaps NATO dismissed the entire conference and didn’t bother to read its transcript. There was only one Q related to that meeting and it didn’t ask about Putin’s words cited above. There’s more to Escobar’s article that’s important. But the above is the most important and least reported on part of that entire exercise, which I fand amazing.

He cant make it much plainer than that, but unfortunately the West hasn’t been listening to Putin since he made things very plain in Munich in 2008. Fifteen years of not listening and the West still has not learnt anything. The education will have to be carried out by the Russian military and the destruction of the Western European economies.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 18:57 utc | 122

Looks like “sourvodka” — the #1 troll from the RT comments section — has sidled up to the bar here.
And he didn’t even bring the vodka.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 15 2023 19:02 utc | 124

@101 Julian
What you say makes sense. Putin didn’t annex Crimea or invade ukraine in 2014 and 2022 to avoid overshadowing the Olympics in russia and China then. So your probably right.
But I gotta say fucking with military imperatives for optics will surely enrage the War God, and curse his attempts at attacking. Russia must fight with no artificial limitations if they want to win.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 15 2023 19:13 utc | 126

@ John Marks | Jun 15 2023 18:35 utc | 122
Yes, and a thousand times Thank You.
And while I’m at it, the only “discussion” the Karaganov essay merits are expressions of derision or disgust.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 15 2023 19:16 utc | 128

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 15 2023 15:45 utc | 75
Blame shifting onto Ukraine, designed to shield the creators of a strategy that was built on multiple layers of deception. There is no off the shelf simulation, be it electronic or tradition pencil and paper, that would allow Ukraine to succeed. There is no open-source article written, prior to the SMO, that suggested the West’s approach to Ukraine was ever going to be militarily successful. Plenty of fluffy, feel-good guff, post the operations start, but that was as either PR, projection, wish-fulfilment or a mixture of the three. Perhaps we are approaching a period future historians, ever mindful of coining catch phrases for socio-political delineations, as the era of the stable cleaning or the ‘Augean era’.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 15 2023 19:37 utc | 130

Posted by: @John Marks | Jun 15 2023 18:35 utc | 122
Complete rubbish. Russia losing its cool and nuking Lemberg (Lvov) is just the kind of excuse the NeoCon Americans and psychotic Brits are seeking to provoke from the Russians – and then UK/US would justify launching WW3 in earnest.
Insofar as you encourage use of nukes – by anyone – you´re a danger to us all.
NATO is weak, they would not retaliate. Poland was hit by Russian missiles a few months back and they pretended it was the Ukros who did it.
Instead, you want Russian troops to die (indefinitely?) just to hypothetically save your own skin, which in the real world unlike the alaramist fanstasy one you appear to inhabit wouldnt be at risk at all.
A nuke on Lvov would solve the problem, in very short order.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 15 2023 19:39 utc | 132

@Roger #117
Great analysis, thanks.
TBF though he is trying to talk socio-paths down from the ledge.

Posted by: airstrip1 | Jun 15 2023 19:47 utc | 134

I have a request for those who speak Russian; there is a video of Putin speaking, which is posted on Twitter at this link.
The transcript posted above the video says this:
Putin: “We were forced to try to end the war that the West started in 2014 by force of arms. And Russia will end this war by force of arms, freeing the entire territory of the former Ukraine from the United States and Ukrainian Nazis. There are no other options. The Ukrainian army of the US and NATO will be defeated, no matter what new types of weapons it receives from the West. The more weapons there are, the fewer Ukrainians and what used to be Ukraine will remain. Direct intervention by NATO’s European armies will not change the outcome. But in this case, the fire of war will engulf the whole of Europe. It looks like the US is ready for that too.”
Can those who are fluent in Russia please verify that this is an accurate translation of what Putin states in this video? Also, it would be good to know the location, time, and date that this video was made, if anyone is that well informed.
Thank you in advance.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 15 2023 19:52 utc | 136

Exile @ 138 and
Perimeter @ 139
Thanks both for that repeat of Vladimir Putin’s speech.
A good opportunity for me to thank both of you for ALL your comments and work put into them.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 15 2023 19:59 utc | 138

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 15 2023 18:04 utc | 114
Sounds like they’ve using cheap Grad for saturation and HIMARS for precision hits on higher value, longer range targets (command posts, strong points, accumulations, counter battery etc). The generally lower mobility of guns can only have counted against their survivability and we know RF has been ahead with its passive-sensor counter battery tracking. I don’t follow UA channels so I don’t know what equipment losses UA is claiming to have inflicted but I did see a YouTube video of HIMARS targeting a Grad launcher vehicle.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 15 2023 18:56 utc | 124
They’re left with what’s survivable and effective enough to bother deploying. There is a definite gap between cheap but unguided Grad and ultra-expensive but precise HIMARS that is not now filled by gun artillery, but survivability has spoken.
We’ve had this discussion before but I’ll restate it a little differently: HIMARS is a ludicrously overpriced MIC launch vehicle for ludicrously overpriced MIC rockets. There’s at least a factor of 10 over-price, probably a factor of 20 or more, vs true commodity pricing and just a little corner cutting for price optimisation.
Gun artillery is unlikely to become much more survivable but guided rocket artillery has scope to become a fraction of its MIC price, at which point it’ll be economical to use HIMARS-equivalent systems on targets that were previous optimal for guns.
Note also the greater flexibility of range and warhead configuration with artillery rockets and the fact that the launcher vehicles are a fraction of the cost of gun systems. An adversary who actually shoots back and more realistic pricing changes things enormously.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 15 2023 20:00 utc | 140

…from Stars & Stripes
Austin cautions allies backing Ukraine against expectation of ‘easy sprint’ to victory

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive is shaping up to be a long, bloody fight rather than a sign that victory is on the horizon, the United States’ top military officials said Thursday.
“Ukraine’s fight is not some easy sprint to the finish line,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after high-level talks at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley led a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact group, which involves dozens of allies and partners that are part of the effort to arm and equip Ukraine’s military. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 15 2023 20:03 utc | 142

People who think the Russians are going to need to nuke somebody to get some respect from the west are quite common here. That’s why it gets little notice.
Quite a few of them claim to be pro-Russian too.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 15 2023 15:54 utc | 77
##############
If you read that article, it’s not about respect. It’s about educating a vicious problem child on the consequences of mischief after decades of words have fallen on deaf ears and patience has been exploited.
Western citizens have no control over their governments, their banks, their laws, or their currency. And as such, there is a dearth of corrective measures to rein in the worst impulses of the psychopathic cabal in charge.
I don’t know if it would work, but I do agree that the problem won’t go away with time and more patience.
One can easily imagine the hundreds and thousands of ways things could go wrong, but I can’t see any obvious solution.
Can you?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2023 20:19 utc | 144

The F16’s are old and the the Patriots are proven junk, what’s next?
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 15 2023 13:49 utc | 33
Don’t the Swiss have a few dozen JgdPz 38 hetzer’s in mothballs?
Maybe the Chileans could send any M-24 Chaffee’s that still work also.
With weapons like those, the ukes are bound to win.

Posted by: T.D. | Jun 15 2023 20:24 utc | 146

There’s no doubt that Ukraine has strategic reserves remaining. But the state number of brigades never specifies whether these are full strength brigades or not. We do know that some of them are newly formed, not usually a good sign to be on the offensive a few months after initial formation.
One reason Kiev might blow the Kahkovka dam is under strength brigades on the zaporozhye and south donestsk front prior to the great counter offensive. It defends against a potential counter into Kherson city by Russia and frees those troops. Those troops did move east at the beginning of the offensive, at least in part.
Zelensky is under enormous pressure for this offensive. It was all drawn up by the US/UK. Big arrows decorated the map. Yet the VSU has yet to be able to wedge deeply into or overwhelm the grey zone. That suggests not as many troops as claimed, especially since Kiev isn’t above clearing a minefield with its own infantry. I suspect VSU real force numbers are greatly exaggerated (all those conscription teams count as “military” for example).

Posted by: Lex | Jun 15 2023 20:25 utc | 148

Southfront tells about Kiev regime’s newest media operations in the face of bad prospects. They have received 1200 Russian service men military uniforms, so far they have been used to:
-film fake videos of “RU shooting conscripts”
-planned to use to attack RU checkpoints and border
-most likely they have been used to film videos of “looting homes” (as someone recently spread here)
https://southfront.org/ukraine-tends-to-media-warfare/

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 15 2023 20:31 utc | 150

from the Pentagon. . .
Austin Urges Nations to Continue Ukraine Support for Long Haul
He spoke today at the start of the 13th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, Belgium.
“I ask this contact group to continue to dig deep to provide Ukraine with the air-defense assets and munitions that it so urgently needs to protect its citizens,” he said.
. . .Austin also emphasized it’s become increasingly clear that Ukraine needs a force that is interoperable with ally and partner militaries. Discussions at the contact group will focus on how this can be accomplished. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 15 2023 20:37 utc | 152

the Russians have been preparing fall out shelters. (1) “Blinken” has announced just today the possibility of an ATOM-NUCLEAR-Strike vs. RUSSIA.(2) Gen. Milley and Sec. Austin pledge ALA it takes support to Ukraine. (3) the military balance between Russia and Ukraine favors Russia (4) The [Western leaders] are not serious people.(5)
“Russian nuclear weapons, could save humanity from a global catastrophe: (6) Sergey Karagnov’s proposes a policy change. (7) Putin ..says the SMO includes the liberation of all Ukraine; and if NATO directly enters the conflict, the war will be brought to those nation’s capitals and their remaining major industrial centers. (8) Sergey Karagnov says the best defense for Russia is a nuclear offense.(9) NATO is weak, they would not retaliate.(10) Direct intervention by NATO’s European armies will not change the outcome.(11)
<=so what does it all mean? (1) Posted by: young | Jun 14 2023 14:27 utc | 31 (2) Posted by: spare_truth | Jun 14 2023 20:47 utc | 178 (3) Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 15 2023 18:21 utc | 118 (4) Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 14 2023 22:14 utc | 229 (5) Posted by: Lex | Jun 15 2023 1:37 utc | 282 (6) Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 4:49 utc|310 5:05|313 (7) https://www.rt.com/russia/578042-russia-nuclear-weapons/
(8) Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 18:22 utc | 119
(9) Posted by: John Marks | Jun 15 2023 18:35 utc | 122
(10) Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 15 2023 19:39 utc | 135
(11) Posted by: Exile | Jun 15 2023 19:48 utc | 138
Posted by: Exile | Jun 15 2023 19:48 utc | 138

Posted by: snake | Jun 15 2023 20:46 utc | 154

@ AG, §156:
The red line should be further west, to include Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky and Vinnitsa oblasts.
And the Bujak (Odessa oblast west of the Dniester) is probably not of much interest, except as a bargaining chip. The bridges have already been blown: Bujak is cut off from Odessa and the rest of the Ukraine.

Posted by: John Marks | Jun 15 2023 20:55 utc | 156

I think the west thinks this is a little hot Cold War and if they can keep this going it will defeat Russia as the Cold War seemed to defeat the USSR.

Posted by: Inki | Jun 15 2023 21:20 utc | 158

Slavyangrad confirmed that the Dniepr Kakhovka reservoir bed will take many, many months to dry out to the point that heavy equipment will be able to cross. With the season of rains only a few months away, that will probably mean until next year. The Ukie general staff and MI-6 assessed that any attack on the ZNPP would produce very large levels of losses because of this.
Also, Russia is negotiating a visa-free regime with the Bahamas, Barbados, Haiti, Mexico, Trinidad and Saint Lucia. Having lots of Russians invade the holiday spots frequented by Americans would be a priceless smack in the face for the US! Perhaps those nations will also be linking to the MIR card network. its already available in Cuba (from April 2022) and Venezuela, although the US threatens the usual illegal secondary sanctions on any country supporting MIR.
A pretty direct flight over Turkey, along the North Africa coast and across the Atlantic. Turkish Airlines could make some money on this, it already offers a Moscow to Havana roundtrip for US$2,000. a 20-hour plus flight with a connections in Istanbul and Madrid that could be turned into an extended vacation in three countries if they allowed stopovers. Moscow to Mexico City takes about the same time. With Iran now accepting MIR, Russian tourists have that country that they can easily vacation in. The Maldives seem to the big winner with Russian tourism so far (and of course Turkey) with the big losers Europe.
For Russians, vacations aren’t what they used to be. But they still have options

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 21:23 utc | 160

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 21:23 utc | 163
Russian tourism in Iran was big in 2019. Where most of the money was spent. Other tourists were cheaper- much like my crowd of mostly el cheapo Aussies. No fancy sparkling hotels for us, just very comfortable ordinary. The lower end restaurants were fabulous anyway.

Posted by: watcher | Jun 15 2023 21:31 utc | 162

Perimetr | Jun 15 2023 19:52 utc | 139–
The video is from Putin’s meeting with Russian War Correspondents in the 13th. Escobar cited that as have others. However, I have combed the transcript four times–both mine and the Kremlin’s–and find nothing that conforms to the text being cited. Yes, there are a few bits and pieces here and there that might be arranged to form those words. The video appears to be a portion where Putin’s responding to Sergei Pegov, the red-head wearing the hat, who can be seen in this photo. The corresponding portion of the transcript has now such text as cited.
I’m very pleased you pointed this out!!!!

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 21:35 utc | 164

unimperator @ 114
Grad is all Russian ammunition. Old Soviet stocks or sent from old Comintern armories. Himars is plain limited and quite expensive. It all comes to an end.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 15 2023 21:37 utc | 166

Media in Belgorod oblast reporting Russian troops looting houses and property of local residents. Just to be clear, Belgorod oblast is still part of Russian Federation…
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/15/zhiteli-belgorodskoi-oblasti-pozhalovalis-na-maroderstvo-rossiiskih-voennih-a46161
Posted by: Sour | Jun 15 2023 13:12 utc | 11
Fun fact:
1. Simplicius reported yesterday that the desperate Ukroids ordered up 300 Russian army and GRU uniforms to use as disguises in terror attacks in Belgorod.
2. Moscow Times is foreign fascist propaganda which has no relation to the “Moscow” of the Russian Federation. Kindly peddle your vacuous twaddle elsewhere. The grown ups are talking.

Posted by: nwwoods | Jun 15 2023 21:46 utc | 168

@ Paco, §162:
Algeria is the largest country in Africa and the richest in terms of oil and natural gas.
Not satisfied with that, Algeria has imperial pretensions on Western Sahara (erstwhile Rio de Oro & Sequia la Roja) as well as the suppression of the Tuareg in the south. The Saharans in the Tindouf camps suffer miserably, with their kids recruited as child soldiers into Algeria´s imperialist wars.
The Saharans´ best interests would be served by peace which the Saharans in the Moroccan-occupied western zone enjoy. A better policy would be to transfer the Saharans who are currently refugees in camps in the Algerian desert to the eastern zone (around Tifariti & Mijek) with Morocco and Algeria providing economic support so they can rule themselves – and unite with the western zone if they vote so to do under UN-supervized elections.
I agree with you about Morocco´s flirtation with America and Israel. The Moroccans should not trust either, but the Moroccans have been careful to maintain good relations with Russia. Under American pressure, Moroccan tanks (purchased from America) were sent to the Ukraine but I do not think this indicates Moroccan support for the Ukraine, rather America removing them through force majeur.

Posted by: John Marks | Jun 15 2023 21:51 utc | 170

@Posted by: Paco | Jun 15 2023 21:35 utc | 168
You would need to add the lighter-skinned elites who have ruled over most of Latin America since independence in the 1800s and subjugated the rest of the population, and the elites of the Iberian Peninsula from where many descend from. And the French, Germans, Italians.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 15 2023 21:53 utc | 172

re: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 21:35 utc | 167 and whirlX | Jun 15 2023 21:42 utc | 170
Many thanks!
The Tweet was also copied at the bottom of the Automatic Earth blog, but without attribution.
I made the initial mistake of passing this Tweet on without verifying the source.
I should know better by now.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 15 2023 21:58 utc | 174

whirlX | Jun 15 2023 21:42 utc | 170–
Yes, we have the same conclusion. I informed Escobar at his VK since he cites that in his SCF article. As I wrote, I combed and recombed the Kremlin and my Yandex-generated transcripts to try and find anything that resembled what was cited. What I found was it’s all there in several snippets then put together without ellipses to make it appear as one statement–something like how the Monroe Doctrine was formulated from a bunch of speech snippets. The problem of course is that isn’t credible reporting. Pepe will be incensed, and I wasted 90 valuable minutes of my time.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 22:04 utc | 176

@whirlX 178
indirect thx for the link
that Romanian Centre is affiliated to what money and lobby?
p.s. this is so strange, been to Romania many times long time ago, when all this stuff appeared not to matter much, man I should have looked more closely.
But then, I did not think they would risk blowing it up all.
(Chisinau?! that used to be a place for artists and lost writers.)

Posted by: AG | Jun 15 2023 22:23 utc | 178

To: Paul Greenwood | Jun 15 2023 17:39 utc | 105
Now Budanov is in a hospital in Berlin, he is in serious condition.
Funny it is always Berlin – always Charite – whether it is Navalny or Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko in 2014 – there must be a special “Government Nomenklatura Wing” at this hospital……….
—
Not only that: Charite, Corona/Covid, Christian Drosten, political adviser and co author of the anti lab leak paper.
Also recently in Berlin, someone fell out of a window, but not Charite: at the Russian embassy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-berlin-embassy-spy-window-b1952402.html

Posted by: C | Jun 15 2023 22:25 utc | 180

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 17:29 utc | 102
Well said. Only idiots talk about Russia unilaterally using nukes, especially with regards to Ukraine.
The number of clueless at this bar is not surprising, given the percentage of clueless in the world is near 98%.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 15 2023 22:32 utc | 182

USA will not abandon Ukraine until after election in Nov 2024,
Posted by: Revelo | Jun 15 2023 14:19 utc | 46
I agree 100%. My reading of repetitive US war and electoral history since WII is that:
1, one branch of the Uniparty and Pentagon and MIC gets the country bi-partisan into some foreign war via BS propaganda and even fake evidence of the need;
2, they bumble along embarrassing themselves until the incumbent President has made a right mess of it and begun to lose congressional and public support for it;
3, but the incumbent can’t withdraw from the war because of his own habitual hubris and ideology that he is “right to be fighting the war against the evil enemy”;
4, the tide of public support grows tired/bored with that mission and politics gradually shifts towards the opposition party;
5, come an election, the opposition party senses the public mood for a US withdrawal and campaigns on that;
6, a new Pres gets in on that mandate;
7, he withdraws from the war and can blame the previous gvt for the whole fiasco.
It seems crystal clear to me that Biden and his hawkish Dems are progressing along exactly the same track. At this stage, a few Reps are making noise about cutting Ukraine support, a few Pres candidates are talking withdrawal, the Pentagon is not so positive about Ukraine’s mission anymore, a pivot to a China conflict would “freshen up” the news, such that my prediction is that Nov 2024 may well be the withdrawal turning point by a change of Admin and Pres. Biden is so locked-in to his rehetoric that there is just NO WAY he can lose face by talking peace negotiations, funding reduction or support withdrawal in his term. He is so unpopular his re-election would be a crucifixion.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 15 2023 22:37 utc | 184

@ AG | Jun 15 2023 22:23 utc | 181
that Romanian Centre is affiliated to what money and lobby?
Perhaps, ex-Soviet Romanian mil guys selling out counter Moscow strategy.
Red Army went there like a hot knife through butter.

Since 2014, the Centre for the Study of New Generation Warfare has led
efforts to educate Western democratic leadership on the strategy and
tactics of New Generation Warfare (NGW) in use today. The foundation
of this effort is the continuing research into evolving techniques of NGW
begun by Moscow and now being adopted by other regimes and illiberal
democracies. The Centre aims to help NATO, EU and partner nations defend
against states (Russia, others) waging NGW — across the full spectrum
of economic, political and military security. The Centre utilizes a wide
range of educational tools; from briefings and speeches, to the publication
of articles and books, to the employment of various forms of simulations
and computer war games to distribute the facts of these NGW methods of
military-political aggression.

p.s. this is so strange, been to Romania many times long time ago, when all this stuff appeared not to matter much, man I should have looked more closely.
Historically it is an old pass.
But then, I did not think they would risk blowing it up all.
(Chisinau?! that used to be a place for artists and lost writers.)
In my view blowing this part of Romania is cheaper then Kassel or Fulda.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 15 2023 22:43 utc | 186

https://t.me/Govorit_NeMoskva/10574
Posted by: Sour | Jun 15 2023 15:12 utc | 62
What is your ethnicity, Sour person? There is a well-known troll “sourvodka” polluting the RT comment section with incredible pro-Banderites stories and joyful reminders about young Daria Dugina’s untimely death. Are you related to “sourvodka,” or are you the same base person?
———————————————————————————-
“The Moscow Times isn’t local media, it’s operated from Europe. It’s been a terrible source of information, I’ve gotten nothing useful from it. A place like ukrinform is pure spin, but it spins actual events. “The Moscow Times” will just make stuff up so you can’t try to read between the lines.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 15 2023 13:25 utc | 28
“The Amsterdam-based English- and Russian-language online newspaper “The Moscow Times” currently belongs to a limited liability company which is 51% owned by Russian businessman Vladimir Jao, the CEO of an airline catering company, 30% by Svetlana Korshunova, general director of the paper, and 19% by Derk Sauer, the original founder of the paper.” Sauer does not speak Russian. In 2017, he repurchased “The Moscow Times.”
Chief editors
• Mikhail Fishman, from November 2015 until July 2017. Jewish, grew up in Moscow.
• Eva Hartog, from 2017 until 2019. Jewish, grew up in Spain and Netherlands. A contributor to the rabidly Russophobic “Atlantic Council” (https://www.theatlantic.com/author/eva-hartog/)
• Svetlana Korshunova. All biographical information has been carefully removed from the net (this is highly unprofessional).
• Howard Amos, since March 2022. Former contributor to “The Times of Israel.”

Posted by: Cerena | Jun 15 2023 22:48 utc | 188

whirlX | Jun 15 2023 22:24 utc | 182–
Thanks for your reply and the effort you provided. As I wrote, the entirety is there but not all together. The way Escobar cited it in his article makes it seem that he pulled it from the transcript himself, which is clearly not the case; and I told him that was very problematic if our primary aim is to keep our credibility. My note to him is public; so, what he decides to do has a degree of importance. IMO, like everyone, he took a shortcut but didn’t say that’s what he did and got caught in an error. In turn, I citied his citation and am also conflicted, although I’ve uncovered what occurred. I could go back to the transcript and put all the snippets together, but I’m not inclined to do that currently. I still have yet to directly address Karaganov’s essay which I planned to do this morning.
Anyhow, Putin will be at SPIEF tomorrow 14:00 local time where his speeches are always important.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 22:53 utc | 190

@ karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 22:53 utc | 193
Anyway, I think it is unnecessary to imitate NATO psyops.
Not an issue. Thanks for SPIEF speech info. It could be forming of a new UN?

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 15 2023 22:58 utc | 192

fake james… reported..
@ james | Jun 15 2023 17:54 utc | 111
Whoever that was, they did such a splendid job summarizing the absolutely delusional goals of “the counteroffensive”… I thought for a moment you might have been stretching your sarc knuckles.
I’ve been relying on Simplicius for accounts which at least bear some correspondence with the physical universe. That’s always a good start. Simplicius describes how no assault has even been organized enough to break through the second line. UAF, almost anywhere they break through a little bit, they’re stuck. Russians distribute “agricultural minefields” behind the attack, nobody ever goes home.
In the name of humanity, why? Who is trying to prove what to whom — with such an historically humiliating display of military ineffectuality? The subject of b’s “astroturf” post hews close to the point wreaking havoc on my conscience: Ukrainians keep paying with their lives, their whole country went into the cauldron, merely to satisfy regnant US American sadism.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 15 2023 23:04 utc | 194

fyi
Andrew Korybko replies to Sergey Karaganov’s proposal that Russia should use nuclear weapons to end the Ukraine war
https://korybko.substack.com/p/korybko-to-sergey-karaganov-nuking

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 15 2023 23:06 utc | 196

text to copy/paste and present
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 18:22 utc | 119
defense.gov/Transcripts -> Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark A. Milley Hold Press Conference Following Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting, Brussels, Belgium (15 June)

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 15 2023 23:10 utc | 198

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2023 17:29 utc | 102
Mate, I like your attitude to deep investigation into a topic or person connected with RF and this SMO no matter how unpalatable and crazy they might be. Deeper understanding comes from such investigations … in contrast to RSH’s dismissive and expected condescending approach — “I saw his CV and thus didnt read it”, with the added caveat – “… and Martynov agrees with me that economic graduates are all fools and idiots”. Lol. Such a bigot — well — matched pair of bigots.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 15 2023 23:12 utc | 200