Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Back to Main
June 4, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-135
Comments
I think most will agree an Ukrainian counteroffensive makes little sense at this point, unless you wish to put Ukraines’ sons through a meat grinder, and throw away Ukraines’ future for the next generation or two. Under what circumstances would sacrificing Ukraines’ youth make sense?
If you look at WW2, one of the threads was “let Germany and Russia fight”. The US landed in Normandy, and ran in little circles in the North of France and Belgium, until the Russians had taken Berlin. German surrender was the moment when the German army had inflicted as much damage on Russia as it could. At that moment the US moved forward rapidly, staking a claim on half Europe. The follow up was to have been plans like “Operation Unthinkable”: rebuilding the German army, followed by German, Polish, British, and US troops marching on Moscow, with nuclear back-up. The follow-up never happened.
The equivalent now would be for US planners to let Ukraine and Russia fight, with US troops running in little circles in Poland and Romania, until the Russians have taken Kiev. Ukrainian surrender is the moment when the Ukrainian army has inflicted as much damage on Russia as it can. At that moment the US moves forward rapidly, and stakes a claim on half Ukraine. The follow up is then rebuilding the Ukrainian army, followed by Ukrainian, Polish, British, and US troops marching on Moscow.
In this analogy, the crucial moment is when Ukraine surrenders, because whether there is a follow-up war NATO – Russia depends upon whether the Russian army is seen as exhausted or not, at the moment of Ukrainian surrender.
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 4 2023 12:38 utc | 1
Lots of action lately. Russia taking out a lot of ammunition points. Ukraine probing defense lines and getting routed. Zelensky still begging. NATO and US looking for an exit strategy since they know its a lost cause. They thought they could pull off another Afghanistan, silly warmongers. Yet they refuse to let Ukraine surrender which would be the smart thing to do. That would show that the west is weak and wrong. Can’t have that. So the SMO continues until all goals are achieved. Also keeps the west bogged down in Europe while the RoW creates the new multipolar world we all desperately need. Good days ahead.
Posted by: Watzov | Jun 4 2023 12:52 utc | 2
May be the future of all this is a RoW army to assure the world of Us compliance this international rules.
Posted by: Baile | Jun 4 2023 13:01 utc | 3
I suppose everyone has already seen the ludicrous, I mean glorious, invention of the town of Readovka where the Martyrs Of Snake Island and the Ghost of Kiev have the evil Russians on the run, authority has disappeared, and mass looting is taking place?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 4 2023 13:05 utc | 4
⚡️ Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (06/04/2023)
◽️ Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike with long-range high-precision air-launched weapons against enemy targets at military airfields.
◽️ The target of the strike has been reached . Command posts, radar posts, Ukrainian aviation equipment, as well as storage facilities with weapons and ammunition were hit .
◽️ In the Kupyansk direction , air strikes and artillery fire from the “Western” group of troops defeated the enemy’s manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Sinkovka, Olshana and Timkovka of the Kharkov region.
💥In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Berestovoe in the Kharkiv region, Rozovka, Novoselovskoe in the Luhansk People’s Republic and Liman in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the activities of four Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were stopped.
💥 Up to 70 Ukrainian military personnel, three cars, two pickup trucks, as well as a D-20 howitzer.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limansky direction , operational-tactical and army aviation, artillery of the group of troops “Center” defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Yampolovka, Torskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Makeevka, Ploschanka, Nevskoye and Chervonaya Dibrova of the Lugansk People’s Republic, as well as Serebryansky forestry .
💥 A Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group was destroyed in the area of the village of Grigorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 During the day, up to 65 Ukrainian military personnel, two armored fighting vehicles, three pickup trucks, D-20 and D-30 howitzers, and also two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts.
💥 In addition, an ammunition depot of the 63rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed near the village of Serebryanka in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction , active combat operations of the assault groups of the Akhmat special forces detachment in the Maryinsky tactical direction, as well as units of the 1st Army Corps of the “Southern” group of troops in the area of the settlement of Avdiivka, continue.
💥 During the fighting, up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, two US-made M777 artillery systems, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers.
💥 In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Slavyansk and Minkovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, ammunition depots of the Liman operational-tactical group, as well as the 128th mountain assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , were destroyed.
◽️ In the South-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions , air strikes and artillery fire from the Vostok group of troops hit enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Pavlovka, Shevchenko of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Chervonoe, Poltavka, Preobrazhenka and Malaya Tokmachka of the Zaporozhye region.
💥 Up to 240 Ukrainian military personnel, two armored combat vehicles, nine vehicles, Msta-B howitzer, self-propelled artillery installation “Gvozdika” , as well as a combat vehicle MLRS “Grad”.
💥 Ammunition depots of the 11th artillery and 65th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Temirovka and Preobrazhenka in the Zaporozhye region.
◽️ In the Kherson direction, as a result of fire damage , up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, two cars, as well as a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery installation, were destroyed.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation over the past day hit 96 artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 73 districts.
💥 Near the city of Dnepropetrovsk, a workshop for the assembly of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles was hit by high-precision ground-based weapons.
💥 Command and observation posts of the battalions of the 102nd territorial defense brigade and the 24th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of the settlements of Poltavka, Zaporozhye region and Dzerzhinsk, Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 In addition, the command posts of the Ukrainian troops were hit in the area of the settlement of Slavyansk of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the city of Sumy.
💥 Air defense systems intercepted two Storm Shadow cruise missiles, two Tochka-U tactical missiles and 14 HIMARS and Uragan multiple rocket launchers during the day.
💥 In addition, 21 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Vrubovka, Lozovsky, Kremennaya of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Orlinskoye, Maly Kremenchik, Volodino of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Zhovtneve of the Kharkiv Region, Novaya Kakhovka, Lyubimovka, Andreevka of the Kherson Region, Rabotino of the Zaporozhye Region, and also over the Black Sea.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation , 432 aircraft, 236 helicopters, 4473 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9382 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1112 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 4996 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 10656 units of special military vehicles.
Posted by: rumod report | Jun 4 2023 13:12 utc | 5
Seriously, the answer is another government in Ukraine. The Ukrainian version of Big Minh or a more neutral figure sues for peace. What the UK/US/ScholzGermansdo not realize is it is THEIR country that is being demolished. There will be screams.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Jun 4 2023 13:16 utc | 6
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 4 2023 12:38 utc | 1
I think most will agree an Ukrainian counteroffensive makes little sense at this point, unless you wish to put Ukraines’ sons through a meat grinder, and throw away Ukraines’ future for the next generation or two. Under what circumstances would sacrificing Ukraines’ youth make sense?
If I was sitting in Washington (or whatever sewer the West’s overlords rule from) and my objective was to destroy Russia it would make perfect sense.
Why not throw an entire country almost bodily against my enemy if it will weaken him?
Failing that, why not throw another and another until I remain to claim the coup de grace’ at last?
If you look at WW2, ….
Yes, nothing’s changed it’s same old game more than a century old continued by descendants of the very same people who first kicked off the Great Game …
… Ukrainian surrender is the moment when the Ukrainian army has inflicted as much damage on Russia as it can.
Which may not mean much considering the Russian army is now said to be much stronger than it’s ever been before …
At that moment the US moves forward rapidly, and stakes a claim on half Ukraine.
Come now.
We’ve been over this a thousand times.
The US has neither the Army, nor the military equipment, nor the political will to do this.
Neither does NATO.
The follow up is then rebuilding the Ukrainian army, followed by Ukrainian, Polish, British, and US troops marching on Moscow.
Assuming we can get past my point above, what makes you think they can rebuild an army that they have clearly failed to build to begin with, even after 8 years of trying?
whether there is a follow-up war NATO – Russia depends upon whether the Russian army is seen as exhausted or not, at the moment of Ukrainian surrender.
Listening to the Western sycophants in the MSM, the Russian army has been exhausted for more than a year now.
Do they believe their own b.s ?
If they did, they would have done exactly this months ago …
Regardless, “whether the Russian army is seen as exhausted or not” would certainly not be enough of a trigger.
After all, someone will always raise the point that perhaps the Russians are merely *appearing* to be exhausted.
(which is exactly why I think the Russians have been fighting an economy of force operation from the very beginning, because they realise Ukraine is merely a foil and the real war begins after the Ukrainian army has been crushed, and when that real war begins they’d better not have exposed the full extent of their capabilities or resources or anywhere near have exhausted them)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 4 2023 13:35 utc | 7
@4….the ‘virtual’ evil Russians? Ukraine recently virtually flanked Bakhmut. They are also on the cusp of virtually retaking Crimea……should someone disconnect the power….. unfortunately they’ll be virtually blind……omfg what a virtual mess.
Cheers M
….and of course, The Battle of Bakhmut will go into the books as the Greatest Virtual Loss Ever Considered A Win.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 4 2023 13:43 utc | 8
Passerby | Jun 4 2023 12:38 utc | 1
…throw away Ukraines’ future for the next generation or two
It’s already done. Can’t link to the 2023 Ukraine demographic “tree”, but the number of females aged 20 is 50k.
The male numbers 20-30 were also low, but that was before 200-300k military males up to age 60 were KIA.
Anyone who left Ukraine is not returning.
2023- It’s the biggest and most dramatic de-population of a nation imaginable.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 4 2023 13:47 utc | 9
Seriously, the answer is …
Posted by: Stierlitz | Jun 4 2023 13:16 utc | 6
That’s not quite correct. According to the spitting image of Franco, Josep Borrell
Yes, dear colleagues, we must bring a peace to Ukraine. But a peace that could be considered a just peace. You know, I know how to finish the war in Ukraine. I know. It’s quite easy. We stop supporting militarily Ukraine and the war would finish in a couple of weeks. But how it will finish? Doesn’t it matter? Or, does it matter? If it matters, then we cannot stop supporting militarily Ukraine. Because we don’t want a peace which is the peace of the cemeteries, the peace of surrender, the peace of the stronger, the peace that may create a second Belarus. But, yes, the war will finish.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2023 13:52 utc | 10
For those like myself who are starved for good informational sources, I recommend you check out Levan Gudadze’s channel on YouTube. He is an English speaking Russian who does daily reports on Ukraine and geopolitics. His channel is small…too small for the quality he is providing. He was recently on The Duran, which is how I found him. Check him out, I don’t think you’ll be disappointed.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 4 2023 13:53 utc | 11
Interesting article.
A lot of it is debated and known by the folks here.
But a good read nonetheless.
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2023/03/24/how-zelensky-was-prevented-from-making-peace-in-the-donbas/
Posted by: jpc | Jun 4 2023 13:54 utc | 12
I was horrified but not amazed by comment #1, posted by a Passerby, regarding Operation Unthinkable then and now(!)
Recollecting the history I was told about WWII, the USofA completely won WWII.
It was many years before I found about the untruth of that statement.
Per Brittanica, total deaths in Germany in WWII were 4,200,000, Poland 5,800,000(mostly civilians) the USA 298,000 and the USSR 18,000,000. The most accepted number of deaths in the USSR is 25,000,000. Brittanica, take note.
The USSR was fighting against a war machine par excellence with a not-so-hot military and defeated them.
It seems that that these deaths will not happen during the special military operation going on today.
Operation Unthinkable had better remain just that, IMO.
Posted by: a lurking reader | Jun 4 2023 13:55 utc | 13
Stierlitz@6
“…another government in Ukraine..”
Is what the SMO is all about. That is Russia’s objective.
Not to conquer territory but to return the governing of Ukraine to its people. After which there will be negotiations probably involving plebiscites so that those regions which want to return to Russia, those which may want to form an independent, neutral Ukraine and those which might wish to amalgamate with other states will have the chance to do so.
This is the key to understanding the course of the SMO. It explains the advances to Kiev, for example, as probes to test opinion and gauge the extent to which Nazi propaganda- pumped into the country from outside, with growing intensity for thirty years- has poisoned minds with russophobia.
Such tests are also designed to probe the extent to which NATO and its allies (the formerly neutral states) are committed to aggression against Russia. And the extent to which their governments are prepared to sacrifice domestic living standards to please Washington.
In both areas the SMO has answered questions that decades of diplomacy have left up in the air.
What is happening currently is that the Ukrainian forces, now nothing more than cannon fodder for NATO, are being allowed to beat their heads against a wall. Sooner or later Moscow knows that this exceedingly fragile ‘army’ has to crack up leaving NATO with the choice of invading the country themselves or getting ejected by their, justifiably, angry victims- the Poor Bloody (untrained) Infantry conscripted to fight a war for their enemies against their friends.
In other news from Weird World:
“The share of US spending on defense may drop below 3% for the first time since the Cold War era, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing the latest debt ceiling agreement as a major reason for the decline.”
To make that clear. What it means is that the US is planning to decrease spending on “Defence” or what we call ‘aggression’ to levels as low as those in the Cold War. In other words- the US spends more in peace, to promote wars, than it does in wars to win them.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 13:56 utc | 14
I’ve never gotten into Telegram but for those that are interested there is this from Kyiv Post . . .12 Telegram Accounts to Follow for the Latest Ukrainian Counteroffensive News . . and I assume that as in the US the propaganda must be separated from the reality.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 4 2023 14:01 utc | 15
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 4 2023 13:47 utc | 9
the number of females aged 20 is 50k. The male numbers 20-30 were also low, but that was before 200-300k military males up to age 60 were KIA.
Not to mention half of each demographic is probably gay or incel.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 4 2023 14:02 utc | 16
@bevin | Jun 4 2023 13:56 utc | 13
re: “The share of US spending on defense may drop below 3% for the first time since the Cold War era, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing the latest debt ceiling agreement as a major reason for the decline.”
The bought-and-paid for congress-critters will find a way to suck up dollars. . .
.. .from Defense News:
Senators seek to bypass defense caps in debt ceiling bill
WASHINGTON — Dissatisfied with the $886 billion military budget laid out in the debt ceiling bill, defense hawks are looking to channel additional funds to the Pentagon through supplemental spending packages.. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 4 2023 14:07 utc | 17
A recurring theme on the last thread was concern over the slowness of the Russian advance. One factor that I haven’t seen mentioned is the condition of the Donbass towns where the fighting takes place. The built structure of Bakhmut and Marinka are near totally destroyed, bereft of civilians. The same may be true of Vuhledar at this point. Better to draw the Ukrainian forces into those towns that are already rubble and destroy as much of their military as possible, while attritting the enemy in the rear with air attacks, in order to break the back of the Ukie army first before attempting a broad advance. Otherwise each new city that Russia advances to will end up being leveled, and it will be Russia that later rebuilds them.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 4 2023 14:11 utc | 18
It seems to me that the ROW does not want war.
But, if the USofA has a bunch of soldiers in countries surrounding the Ukraine, and has sold a bill of goods to the Polish army, it is possible, IMO, that the USA would think of Operation Unthinkable. Peace keeping force anybody?
So which countries would support which countries?
India, Iran, China, the African nations – I think those countries would not align with us if push comes to shove.
The USA has allies in the EU, Japan, Australia, Poland, Israel….
I am not geo-politically aware enough to figure this out, but many countries are trying to get out from under our rapacious rule by de-dollarizing – more or less sidling away so as not to cause any major ruckus.
The USA has 850 military bases around the world.
Since I just learned about Operation Unthinkable this morning as I drank my coffee, and since I know really that the neocons will do anything to anybody – assassinations, gas line explosions, 8 million sanctions on whoever’s name comes to mind – to subdue the ROW, it is unsettling to say the least because IMO this time around our self identified sacrosanct territory is fair game.
Posted by: a lurking reader | Jun 4 2023 14:15 utc | 19
All I will say is, from experience, the exercise starting on June 12 looks nothing like previous exercises.
Way too much movement of logistics to support a short exercise.
Watch it carefully my friends.
I would not be surprised at all if there is some kinetic action by Ukraine on the ground in a soft location such as Transnistria whilst this “exercise” is taking place in order to discourage any Russian aviation getting involved.
Watch carefully, very carefully.
Posted by: Ex NATO pilot | Jun 4 2023 14:16 utc | 20
“..bought-and-paid for congress-critters will find a way to suck up dollars. . .” Don Bacon@16
It is impossible to doubt that you are right: they always find a way, even, as we have seen, when there are no threats, no justifications for spending and all sorts of urgent demands from non military interests.
The only reason for optimism is that whenever a mass Peace Movement comes into being it will have some useful arguments to make.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 14:18 utc | 21
If you listen to the rhetoric of Elensky, Blinken, Nuland, western media, I cant see a way out of this mess.
I think it is just watching to see how NATO or the US military figures out a way or triggers the mechanism that’s in the planning in some cesspool and fully inserts them into this war and then praying that the inevitable escalation doesn’t go completely out of control. Missels flying hither and thither, economies totally collapsing and such, bewildered populations wondering how they will function amidst the empty super market shelves. Just a period of general chaos and to provide smoke cover for a getaway for the so called elites to retreats with their satellite phones, or so they would hope being weak miserly pathetic aged frail embittered empty shell losers.
Could be all for the better and a new world will emerge?
Posted by: Geoff | Jun 4 2023 14:19 utc | 22
“Under what circumstances would sacrificing Ukraines’ youth make sense?”
If you were seeking to kill as many Ukranian Christians as possible to make way for turning Ukraine into Israel 2.0
Posted by: Grey | Jun 4 2023 14:21 utc | 23
Yes to Bevin’s comment. It always amazes me how this far into the conflict and the conversation still focuses on Kiev. At the same time a small Russian force was rolling through the south of Ukraine collecting geostrategic territory it still holds and doing so with little resistance.
In many ways this has been a war for Crimea since 2014. From the immediate announcement of the coup government that the lease would be terminated to Russian military actions in March 2022 to the demands for a southern offensive.
We all need to think seriously about how the contours of the conflict changed over time too. Russia started with too small a force to achieve what it’s claimed Russia wanted to achieve. It was still wildly successful. But since summer 2022 it has become clear that the US is all in. From all available evidence, Russia has recognized that and spent the time period building up for that conflict while holding the line (mostly and realistically) until it’s ready. Is it ready now? Unknown but it appears that it is nearly so.
And in the larger context it appears that Russia is winding up while the US ability to support Ukraine is winding down. Maybe there’s a huge industrial buildup going on in the US and Europe; maybe all the statements from western leadership and think tanks about medium term supply issues is a giant psy-op. But that would require western leadership to be supremely competent and have had quietly overturned the whole economic and political system of the west without anyone noticing. So I’ll analyze it as possible but very unlikely.
Posted by: Lex | Jun 4 2023 14:24 utc | 24
Today, the Ukrainians tried to attack in Zaporozhye, but the Russians destroyed the military convoy
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46595
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 4 2023 14:31 utc | 25
[1]. . The US landed in Normandy, and ran in little circles in the North of France and Belgium
Amazing – how did they get across the Atlantic to Normandy ?
There is a version in history books in Europe that has troops landing on Gold and Sword and Juno Beaches – Canadians, British, French, Poles, Belgians,
British and Canadian zones
Royal Marine Commandos attached to 3rd Infantry Division move inland from Sword Beach, 6 June 1944
Commander, Second Army: Lieutenant General Sir Miles Dempsey[82]
Overall, the Second Army contingent consisted of 83,115 men, 61,715 of them British.[83] The nominally British air and naval support units included a large number of personnel from Allied nations, including several RAF squadrons manned almost exclusively by overseas air crew. For example, the Australian contribution to the operation included a regular Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) squadron, nine Article XV squadrons, and hundreds of personnel posted to RAF units and RN warships.[87] The RAF supplied two-thirds of the aircraft involved in the invasion.[88]
Gold Beach
XXX Corps, commanded by Lieutenant General Gerard Bucknall[89]
50th (Northumbrian) Infantry Division: Major General D.A.H. Graham[89]
Juno Beach
Main article: Juno Beach order of battle
British I Corps, commanded by Lieutenant General John Crocker[90]
3rd Canadian Division: Major General Rod Keller[90]
Sword Beach
British I Corps, commanded by Lieutenant General John Crocker[91]
3rd Infantry Division: Major General Tom Rennie[91]
6th Airborne Division: Major General R.N. Gale[91]
79th Armoured Division: Major General Percy Hobart[92] provided specialised armoured vehicles which supported the landings on all beaches in Second Army’s sector.
but I appreciate in US books due to the shortage of paper and the use of Ritalin it is hard to fit the others into an essentially US Story……………after all Americans created the world and are hellbent on destroying it
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 4 2023 14:40 utc | 26
But that would require western leadership to be supremely competent and have had quietly overturned the whole economic and political system of the west without anyone noticing. So I’ll analyze it as possible but very unlikely.
US Weapons production is thoroughly corrupted by profit motive. Quality and functionality is secondary to profit generation. (Although those killer robot dogs the cops will employ on US are amusing.)
It appears the USA is frantically running an out-of-control (balls out) fiat money machine. And that is its focus. Who’s gonna stop it? How can it stop?
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 4 2023 14:41 utc | 27
“The share of US spending on defense may drop below 3% for the first time since the Cold War era, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing the latest debt ceiling agreement as a major reason for the decline.”
US Defence Spending is hidden in several other Departmental Budgets – Energy was where nuclear weapons were budgeted – and no doubt Fauci’s budget had lots of Pentagon spending which is how he was bulletproof for decades
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 4 2023 14:44 utc | 28
@ rumod report | Jun 4 2023 13:12 utc | 5 with the MOD update……thanks
The repeated reporting of taking out command and observation centers was noteworthy to me. Russia is exhibiting total electronic communication superiority in its SMO at this time. Ukraine is limited to “runners” for discrete and non-origin blaring communications at this point.
But the shit show continues until it doesn’t and the US market was up around 700 point last Friday so the God Of Mammon still holds sway over many
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 4 2023 14:49 utc | 29
I think that for the West the peace process is now all about working backwards from the press releases that the political class and the media will have to have out there at the end so as to save their own skins.
So Russia is going to get what it wants to get, and the West will be allowed to have some talking points. They will have “won” some of the following for Ukraine, thus justifying (sarcasm) the hundreds of thousands who will be dead by then, the over a half million wounded, and the millions of civilians who had their lives turned upside down, and now have to live with a legacy of dead and maimed loved ones, and an environment that includes a blasted landscape and a blasted economy.
The potential Big Wins for Ukraine
Some kinds of referendums where those who are now relieved to live safely under a Russian government vote to stay safe under a Russian government.
A guarantee that they’ll be able to use Odessa to transport their goods, both incoming and outgoing.
A guarantee from the West that they’ll get enough money every month to keep their society functioning on life support. This will be framed as a great achievement by the West.
Vague arrangements for Ukraine to have energy and fuel flow through their infrastructure, which the West will restore. In reality it will mean a transfer of ownership to the West, but for the moment it would be sold as a masterstroke of negotiation by all parties.
Vague promises of good relations with the rest of Europe.
Vague promises that the legitimacy and survival of their government based in Kiev will be preserved.
Vague promises of aid to maintain their internal security, aka support in keeping their people in line.
Russia agreeing to provide the humanitarian aid to adjacent areas they would have provided anyway, regardless of any deals.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
And the under the table understanding would be that those remaining in power in Kiev will be taken care of financially through the usual arrangement of sweetheart deals.
I’m not saying Ukraine will be in a position to get anything once the war ends and the smoke clears, I’m merely speculating as to what the usual suspects might be getting up to as they scramble to think up an exit strategy, one which would be mostly about saving themself.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 4 2023 14:50 utc | 30
For a lot of commentaters on MoA this will not be new, but if you new here, take a watch of this … an interesting primer
Brian Berletic and Patrick Lancaster covers Maidan, Minsk, the media, Nord Stream 2 up to the present.
Geopolitics | NATO | Russia | China |USA | Brian Berletic | Reporterfy | Patrick Lancaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDh3OTEi6P0&t=5429s
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 4 2023 14:50 utc | 31
@ Ex NATO pilot | Jun 4 2023 14:16 utc | 18
Yes, agreed. Dangerous times.
Some AWACS and ISR assets were up earlier, all with transponders off, but surprisingly away from Moldova.
However, I do not think that touching Transnistria by Ukrainians is allowed or approved by their handlers.
It’ll up the ante there, widen the conflict, rendering anything anyone says as non-valid, especially some Article 5. that nobody cares about when provoking, but only when provoked.
Meaning Romanian and USA troops in Romania being Calibrated and SU-ed, possibly Rzeszów and some other centres.
Nobody wants that.
Also, I seriously doubt that RF would be preemptively or otherwise tackled by NATO air force in case Aerospace forces go to deter supposed Ukrainian land attacks.
You are right to warn, as indeed it looks more like some D-Day prep, and not just some annual innocent exercise.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 4 2023 14:50 utc | 32
Re: who will return to The Ukraine ?
In 2021, average gross wage in The Ukraine was ~$300, net take home would be around $150/month.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1258257/average-monthly-wage-ukraine/
What was once the most prosper region of the USSR became after the 2014 coup d’etat the poorest country in Europe. Falling even below Albania.
Anyone who got out to the EU ain‘t going back.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 4 2023 14:51 utc | 33
Lex | Jun 4 2023 14:24 utc | 22
It always amazes me how this far into the conflict and the conversation still focuses on Kiev
Well, that’s probably because the lights are still on there…which begs the question, ‘why are the lights still on in Kiev?’
I mean, I think I know, but shouldn’t all those brave souls in defiance be contemplating this question?
Posted by: john | Jun 4 2023 14:52 utc | 34
A Ukrainian woman and her 20 yr old son (US citizens with US passports) visited Ukraine to see relatives. They were prevented from leaving Ukraine and sent to the front – woman had medical training – because that had no documentation renouncing Ukrainian citizenship.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 14:55 utc | 35
@10
Borrel is from Cataluna, a minority within the kingdom of Spain who speak a dialect (not a language) and wanting independence for a long time now. He clearly identifies with Ukraine that’s why he is charge of foreign policy at the EU cabal.
Posted by: AI | Jun 4 2023 14:58 utc | 36
@Exile | Jun 4 2023 14:51 utc | 30
Many who left Ukraine for the EU are considering returning because life in the EU has proved difficult for them and they become homesick for their community. Life in Ukraine since independence has always been fraught with difficulties but people became used to this and survived despite the myriad problems. While some will put down roots in adopted countries there are many who will return at some point. Military age males probably will wait the conflict out abroad if they can, women with children may well return sooner.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 15:05 utc | 38
@JustAMaverick 11
thx for the recommendation.
(His frankness is “touching” to be honest.
No surprise, since its a gigantic tragedy but compared to all those suits spitting out human rights bullshit in Western media to then go to their next PR-date and the next and the next.)
Posted by: AG | Jun 4 2023 15:06 utc | 39
In 2021, average gross wage in The Ukraine was ~$300, net take home would be around $150/month.
The US can make any country ripe for se* tourism as it hollows out or absorbs any other industry.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 4 2023 15:06 utc | 40
So the embarrasing general staff (are they in vacation?) has managed to get two Russian soldiers captured in Belgorod region by the very few attackers who enter Russia daily without any stress. To release the prisoners, the little terrorists requested a meeting with governor of the region, Gladkov, who announced he’ll go at around 18 local time. Very bad idea but that’s the story so far.
Posted by: rk | Jun 4 2023 15:08 utc | 41
@25
since the global war on terror usa engaging has been spending like with Reagan aka drunken sailor.
and one think tank say usa is lost if pentagon don’t get 7% gdp.
since obomber the pentagon has not grown its take from gdp.
it has grown, spending itself to disarm with f-35, ford class dinosaurs, and useless missile defense
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 15:12 utc | 42
AI: Slightly OT, but…there’s no consensus among linguists as to what constitutes a dialect as opposed to a separate language. In fact the difference is frequently a matter of politics. Thus one dare not say to a Serb of a Croat that they speak the same language. Chinese “dialects” are mutually unintelligible, and it’s unlikely a German from Pirmasens will understand a German from Passau. “Isan Thai” is considered a dialect of Thai although it is in fact Lao (indeed the Isan Thai people are Lao) with some imposed vocabulary and that “krap/ka” business. Further examples are easily available.
The curious thing about Borrell is how a Catalunyan could fail to be sympathetic to movements of oppressed separatists elsewhere—but being unsympathetic is part of his job, I guess.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 4 2023 15:13 utc | 43
it has grown, spending itself to disarm with f-35, ford class dinosaurs, and useless missile defense
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 15:12 utc | 39
gah, I read that as ford f-350… back to coffee.
Posted by: Forest | Jun 4 2023 15:20 utc | 44
Re: Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 14:55 utc | 32
A Ukrainian woman and her 20 yr old son (US citizens with US passports) visited Ukraine to see relatives. They were prevented from leaving Ukraine and sent to the front – woman had medical training – because that had no documentation renouncing Ukrainian citizenship.
It’s hard to believe people are this stupid – but there you go. They got what they deserved.
Posted by: Julian | Jun 4 2023 15:23 utc | 45
@Julian | Jun 4 2023 15:23 utc | 42
Not stupid, naive maybe, thinking US citizenship would protect them.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 15:29 utc | 46
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 4 2023 14:49 utc | 26
That’s what stuck out from Simplicius’s recent post. Intra-battalion and regiment or company communications are often jammed and “runners” are needed to deliver targeting orders to artillery crew. Could it be true?
Perhaps SMO should be extended to orbit above Ukraine?
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 15:32 utc | 47
Not stupid, naive maybe, thinking US citizenship would protect them.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 15:29 utc | 43
Gonzalo had the same surprise
Posted by: rk | Jun 4 2023 15:33 utc | 48
Borrel is from Cataluna, a minority within the kingdom of Spain who speak a dialect (not a language) and wanting independence for a long time now. He clearly identifies with Ukraine that’s why he is charge of foreign policy at the EU cabal.
Posted by: AI | Jun 4 2023 14:58 utc | 33
Catalan is a language the same as spanish, romanian, italian, french or portuguese. It is not a dialect.
Posted by: OneCatalanGuy | Jun 4 2023 15:35 utc | 49
Is this analogy correct?
The difference between russian and ukranian is the same as the european portuguese and brazilian portuguese?
Ukranian seems a dialect and not a language per se.
Posted by: Hugo | Jun 4 2023 15:36 utc | 50
So now we not only have Ukrainians in Novaya Tavolzhanka, but they also captured POWs, and they gave Gladkov an ultimatum to come and meet them in person to retrieve those people.
Fantastic.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 4 2023 15:37 utc | 51
Oh, almost forgot:
Borrell, while being catalan, is not secessionist, he is actually against independence. He has always been part of the socialist party (against independence).
Posted by: OneCatalanGuy | Jun 4 2023 15:37 utc | 52
Hugo@47
No. Catalan is a language. It has been for a long time. It is not analagous to Ukrainian.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 15:42 utc | 53
OneCatalanGuy no. 49
The elections in july will determine what happens with the regions wanting independence. Interesting times.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 4 2023 15:43 utc | 54
The first images from the place of repulsion of the Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhzhya direction.
Near the village of Rivnepil, a drone recorded several American M1224 MaxxProo and HMMWV M1151A1 armored vehicles, as well as a downed M113 tank and APC.
@milinfolive
“>https://t.me/sharednewsby/3256
Looks like at least one attack in Zap direction got wrecked, counting 10 vehicles on that video.
The network is actively spreading another fake tsipso about, allegedly, fights in Novaya Tavolzhanka.
A number of publications with two videos “in the first person and voice-over”, and on the image of the fighters.
We checked house numbers, studied the buildings and can assure you that these videos do not refer to this settlement in any way.
Be careful in the pursuit of quotability, do not sow panic.
@rusich_army
https://t.me/sharednewsby/3266
—————–
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Videos distributed on the Web as “frames of battles in Novaya Tavolzhanka ” are fake. There is no such configuration of buildings in the village, the sounds of shots are extremely strange, and the operator’s comments are deliberately calm.
In the first video, the filmmaker demonstrates amazing composure – he is reporting live from the line of fire, being in the room behind the “employee”.
Of course, civilian operators rarely demonstrate miracles of self-preservation, but in this case there is definitely nothing to be afraid of. The video, with an extremely high degree of probability, is staged, and has nothing to do with Novaya Tavolzhanka.
#Belgorod #Russia #Ukraine
Support us (https://qr.nspk.ru/BS1A0068ID10D33B9IBAQRQ4M9T0NIFN?type=01&bank=100000000008&crc=36CB) Original msg (https://t.me/rybar/48008)
—————————
Regarding the video from Novaya Tavolzhanka.
See how the Ukrainian information machine works. Khokhlopopomich post videos of alleged battles in Tavolzhanka. There are armed people running around, and civilians exclaim: “They’re everywhere!
Then Russian channels publish these clips for some reason. Then the Ukrainian media publish these clips with the title: “Russian Telegram Channels Publish Video of Fighting in Novaya Tavolzhanka. And now the primary source is no longer a small Ukrainian channel, but a large Russian one. So it’s all true.
I don’t know if these videos are real or not. But I doubt very much that Novaya Tavolzhanka has Internet to download them now.
@sashakots
https://t.me/sharednewsby/3268
—————————
Vladimir Rogov (@vrogov) the head of the ‘We are with Russia’ movement in Zaporozhye Oblast reports the following from the front about the reconnaissance in force conducted earlier today by the AFU:
About the offensive (https://t.me/vrogov/10029) of the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye area
Today, at about 12:00 pm, militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, through reconnaissance in force, attempted to break through on the Zaporozhye front in the area of Vremevsky Balka.
The main hostilities unfolded in the direction of the settlements of Novodarovka, Rovnopol, as well as in areas south and southwest of Vremovka (Neskuchnoye-Makarovka) and south of Novodarovka (Levadnoye-Priyutnoye).
About two motorized infantry companies and over a dozen armored vehicles, including T-72 tanks, American M113 armored personnel carriers, M1224 MaxxProo and HMMWV M1151A1 armored vehicles, took part in the assault.
In addition to the regular units of the UAF militants, Polish mercenaries from the Third Assault Group of the Polish Corps took part in the attack.
After two hours of fighting, the Nazis were able to advance about 200 meters, losing at least two tanks destroyed by anti-tank systems, and up to a dozen militants.
As of 16:00, the maximum depth to which the combined forces of the Ukrainian Nazis and Polish mercenaries could penetrate reached 400 meters.
Thanks to the high-quality defense of our fighters from the 5th Combined Arms Red Banner Army of the Eastern Military District and accurate strikes by the Russian Air Force, artillery and aimed mortar fire, the enemy suffered losses (at least ten armored vehicles and about 50 militants) and at the moment they are thrown back from their positions.
Now there are active hostilities. The enemy does not stop attempts to continue their assault, our fighters cover [i.e. hit] the enemy with fire.
@DDGeopolitics
“>https://t.me/sharednewsby/3273
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 15:52 utc | 55
“runners” are needed to deliver targeting orders to artillery crew
recall that a well known WWI Corporal was also a runner between the trenches and the rear. Apparently this job took the utmost of courage and skill.
Posted by: exile | Jun 4 2023 15:56 utc | 56
Russian Ministry of Defense
On June 4 of this year, the units covering the state border of the Western Military District and the Border Service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation revealed an attempt by a sabotage and reconnaissance group of Ukrainian terrorists to cross the river near the settlement of Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod region. An artillery strike was inflicted on the enemy.
The enemy was scattered and ran away.
🔹 @mod_russia
Posted by: Novaya Tavolzhanka | Jun 4 2023 16:05 utc | 57
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Consequences of arrival on the convoy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Chasov Yar.https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32360
The columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Volchansk.
According to “Go and see”, several columns of heavy equipment entered Volchansk at once, which is on the very border with the Belgorod region.
“There are new reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city. Heavy equipment, artillery and mercenaries,” said a local resident.
In the near future, new attempts to break through to the Belgorod region are possible.
NE.САХАР (https://t.me/+v-P0xT4ViGI4Yzg6)
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32362
Russian artillery hit the positions of the Ukrainian 9K33 “Osa” air defense system in the direction of Lisichansk.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32373
So looks like they committed more stuff into Volchansk (staging area on other side of border from Shebekino). However, it’s doubtful that Ukraine has ability to sustain many attacks at the same point in time. The thing is, they just decided to activate and throw all their toys at the same point in time.
Most likely these border raids are designed to function synchronically to the attack in Zap region (they also had some sort of rec-in-force near Ugledar, and Avdeevka).
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 16:07 utc | 58
@malenkov | Jun 4 2023 15:13 utc | 40
The curious thing about Borrell is how a Catalunyan could fail to be sympathetic to movements of oppressed separatists elsewhere—but being unsympathetic is part of his job, I guess.
It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It.
Btw. Thai/Lao are rather similar, unlike other languages in the region.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2023 16:15 utc | 59
“Borrel is from Cataluna, a minority within the kingdom of Spain who speak a dialect (not a language) and wanting independence for a long time now. He clearly identifies with Ukraine that’s why he is charge of foreign policy at the EU cabal.”
This is absolutely incorrect as any Romance linguist will attest: Catalan is a language in its own right and not any sort of derivation of Castilian, though, of course, both are derived from the Vulgar Latin of the Late Roman Empire. Moreover, Catalan has preserved more of the ancient written forms of Ibero-Gallo Romance than has the former.
You will not find, for example, one encyclopedia article that describes Catalan as a dialect of Castilian: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_language
Posted by: Ludovic | Jun 4 2023 16:27 utc | 60
Just beautiful:
https://t.me/romanov_92/38775
Belgorod region. From a participant in the events of recent days. Data from a trusted source Comrade. RomanovLight
Shebekino. People left the city. Some of the people who did not leave the city in time were taken out in armored vehicles under shelling. The enemy hit the administrative facilities. The building of the Ministry of Internal Affairs burned down.
Then they began to hit the residential sector. The security forces were tasked with evacuating residents, helping wounded civilians, and fighting looters. The city is almost empty.
New Tavolzhanka, Kazinka, Shebekino – the sky is under the control of UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Crossroads shot by the enemy. If any transport appears on them, even peaceful ones, a Grad package, an artillery or mortar shell flies.
In terms of BC consumption, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no hunger. “Pee” is fine.
According to the person, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have achieved one of the main goals – so to speak, they “blocked” [apparently, we are talking about fire control of the road] one of the main roads that connected the region with Valuyki, Urazovka, Volokonovka. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine bring artillery closer, they will cover small roads with fire.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 4 2023 16:32 utc | 61
exile | Jun 4 2023 15:56 utc | 53
The interesting thing about this corporal was eventhough he fought in five major battles and was awarded the Iron Cross first class, he only made corporal. Whereas, any one else just surviving those battles would have been promoted to the equivalent rank of a Master Sargent.
Posted by: Jerr | Jun 4 2023 16:34 utc | 62
@ 31 & 22
Kiev as been a giant end-of-the-world party for a few years now. With bombs raining down and the money spigot at US Embassy drying up expect the party people to head for other destinations. In any scenario Ukraine becomes a smaller less important country — or ceases to exist. No need for a metropolis of four million.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 4 2023 16:35 utc | 63
Norwegian: That rather proves my point. Thai and Lao are separate languages because, and only because, Thailand and Laos are separate countries.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 4 2023 16:35 utc | 64
Churchill hated communism and probably saw the Russian empire as competing with the British empire. No problem for him if Russia took a beating.
I suspect we delayed going east in Europe because we wanted to partition Germany and it was a political expedient if Russia took the eastern part. Plus going by our postwar conduct, it would appear that we didn’t appreciate that Russia would occupy the territory it took.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 4 2023 16:36 utc | 65
Posted by: Jerr | Jun 4 2023 16:34 utc | 59
Uh, NO… that is NOT the interesting thing about this corporal…
Posted by: Just Deplorable | Jun 4 2023 16:40 utc | 66
Jun 4 2023 16:36 utc | 62
fdr died in apr 1945 and truman was run by churchill, fdr would have kept the deals made with stalin in 1943 and 44.
potsdam’s collapse was churchill denying fdr!
and the anti russian propaganda blamed stalin!
nato was the harshest breech of the fdr world view.
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 16:43 utc | 67
Re: Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 15:29 utc | 43
No. They are stupid.
Do you not know the “Rules of War”?
I’ll tell you a well-known phrase you’ve obviously never heard and see if you can comprehend what it means.
“Everything goes in love and war.”
By willingly entering a warzone you obviously subject yourself to an “Anything goes” situation.
It’s incredibly simple – and I thought people would have heard that phrase before. You’ve obviously never heard it until now – but there you go – I’ve given you some education today.
Posted by: Julian | Jun 4 2023 17:01 utc | 68
fdr died in apr 1945 and truman was run by churchill, fdr would have kept the deals made with stalin in 1943 and 44.
potsdam’s collapse was churchill denying fdr!
and the anti russian propaganda blamed stalin!
nato was the harshest breech of the fdr world view.
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 16:43 utc | 64
People forget something very important, because they see history as something inevitable rather than as contingent, and thus have hard time understanding decision making when it actually happened.
In this case the view of the Cold War era that has been etched into people’s minds is one of two equal superpowers that check each other’s power through the state of MAD.
But it wasn’t like that between 1945 and 1949 — during those years the US (and the UK by extension) had nukes and the Soviets didn’t. Plus the USSR was destroyed by the war, while the US was completely intact and the UK had taken only light hits.
You can’t understand the decision making without taking that into account, but it is hard to do that because the USSR being this nuclear superpower is just too ingrained in our minds. But it wasn’t in that period.
This is why Western Berlin wasn’t placed under Soviet control, why they didn’t help the Greek communists during their civil war, why they acted with a very light touch around Eastern Europe for the first few years, why the Korean War only happened in 1950s, and many other such things.
On the other side, the West was able to ignore previous arrangements because it sent a clear message on August 6 and August 9 1945.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 4 2023 17:03 utc | 69
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 4 2023 17:03 utc | 66
…and by extension, why someone (Poland, UK, etc.) needs to be nuked soon to hopefully prevent an all-out exchange eventually.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 4 2023 17:04 utc | 70
Well in the meantime..
If you report headlines in the German media like:
Disputes in Russia’s government Putin’s statement would be: persevere
incompetence of the Department of Defense
Russia’s army is not the second strongest army in the world but the second strongest in Ukraine !!
Wagner was about to be blown up by…. the Russian Army !!
Russia kills civilians…. ( No word about action and shelling from Ukrainian side.
Not a word about attacks on the airport…SUCCESSFUL attack !
No word on dispute between Klitschko and Zelensky.
Not a word about Polish mercenaries in Belgorod.
.
Dangerous is:
A normal citizen in Germany hardly finds out anything else…many absorb this information, be it unconsciously.
.
And rightly so, a veil is laid over the expected defeat of Ukraine.
The word “offensive” no longer appears in any report…
But … again and again the appearance that the Russians are weak are destroying themselves, arguing, Putin has hardly any power left, he has to govern with violence and with fear.
That and only THAT remains in the minds of the masses!!!
Posted by: mo3.1 | Jun 4 2023 17:05 utc | 71
Just going to say I called this many months ago after izyum and kherson fell. Ukraine should seize russian territory to gain leverage. Now it’s happening and the first raid they got in past 1 border guard, like who told russia their territory was sacrosanct? Red lines pathetic.
They’re fighting harder now, but only because everyone can see how bad russia has fucked up.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 4 2023 17:17 utc | 72
#1 — Russia seems to be preparing to prevent exactly that move by NATO.
The forces placed in Belarus are positioned against that.
The steady buildup during the meat grinding phase seems designed to ensure a sudden defeat and over run, along the lines of what the Soviets did to Japan in China.
They seem to be getting ready to go to the Polish border, and to go quickly once they start rolling.
A NATO invasion of the remnants of Ukraine would likely fail, since the Russians are mobilized and NATO is not, and NATO has already sent its ammo and spare weapons into Ukraine to be used up first.
So yes, I suspect this is the plan in the mind of fools like Blinken and Nuland, but I am fairly sure it will take us to a disaster and defeat even worse than the present disaster and defeat is shaping to be.
Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jun 4 2023 17:19 utc | 73
@ Passerby, §1:
I think that´s precisely why the Russians have kept their powder dry, using very little of their manpower and achieving most successes using mercenaries such as the Wagners or the Chechens.
Putin, Lavrov, et al., have learnt the hard way that America/NATO are not “agreement capable” and appear to be determined (Richard Dearlove, Adrian Bird, Anthony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, etc., etc.) to destroy Russia. Why? is anyone´s guess, but the West, particularly the British, appear near-psychotic in their hatred, a view definitely not shared by the British nor European peoples.
So the Russians are well prepared for what they´re assuming will be an attempted “follow-on”. Let us hope some sanity, preferably wisdom, emerges in the West – or it´s curtains for the world.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 4 2023 17:20 utc | 74
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 4 2023 12:38 utc | 1
” I think most will agree an Ukrainian counteroffensive makes little sense at this point, unless you wish to put Ukraines’ sons through a meat grinder, and throw away Ukraines’ future for the next generation or two. Under what circumstances would sacrificing Ukraines’ youth make sense? ”
The way I see it …
This is where I think most people have been blindsided. NATO forces are going to be a large part of the counter attack tens of thousands of them. How many of 300k polish troops called up months ago are going to take part for example ?
Radio chatter and with people’s owns eyes say Polish and American troops under the false name of mercenaries are taking part. The Brits are already there. 70K the number that is supposedly the number for the counter attack is false it is probably more than double that and why they are so confident in Success of gaining some territory.
The Russians know this and it is nothing new. Russians fought NATO in Syria even though both sides denied it and in afghanistan and denied it.
Russia ain’t panicking as they can see everything via satellite. The front will become more fluid moving back and forth as the offensive gets going. Russia likes to step back lure them in and drop down hell on them.
The only panicking you will see are Russian telegram channels who are taken by surprise by the sheer amount that gets thrown against Russian defences. It will be way more than they thought Ukraine had. As it ain’t Ukraine they are up against it is NATO troops with Ukrainians, a red line that was crossed months ago.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 4 2023 17:22 utc | 75
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 4 2023 17:22 utc | 72
Nato has staked everything on Ukraine and especially on this attack, supposed to occur within next few months. No doubt there are tens of thousands US and Polska troops. They are also part of Belgorod raids.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 17:30 utc | 76
The destruction of the NATO Ukronazi Army in less than two years and the subsequent collapse of the EU regimes will result in American being removed from Europe.
The worthless arrogant bankrupt corrupt trash have been an anal wart in Europe for far too long and the war will give the impetus to politicians across Europe to remove their disgusting corrupt stink.
Every City, Town and Village the people are the American shite not as partners but oppressors and their vassal pigs like Sunak, Macrom and #DateRape Schultz are despised.
Their security apparatus is creaking and their police and military are mocked and fought in the streets. No one wants to join and serve the vassal shite of the Americans.
So support Russian destruction of the NATO and wait to remove the American slime and deliver justice to the oligarch shite that infest your nations.
Time to end the pervert nation in Europe.
So no tolerance of American filth and humiliate any politicians that even so muck as suckle the creepy pervert Biden and his depraved CIA Epstein kiddie fiddlers like William Burns.
Posted by: Timbo | Jun 4 2023 17:33 utc | 77
Nato has staked everything on Ukraine …
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 17:30 utc | 75
—
The House always wins.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 4 2023 17:33 utc | 78
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 4 2023 17:20 utc | 71
” I think that´s precisely why the Russians have kept their powder dry, using very little of their manpower and achieving most successes using mercenaries such as the Wagners or the Chechens and DPR and LPR ”
Of course it a war of the elites – the ruling class on each side.
Why bombing mainland Russia and Drones hitting Moscow and Russian civilians dying is no longer a red line. War was always thus. Lions led by Donkeys.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 4 2023 17:34 utc | 79
Jmaas@62
Two points.
1/ “Churchill hated communism and probably saw the Russian empire as competing with the British empire. No problem for him if Russia took a beating.”
Generally true. But it ought to be borne in mind that Churchill was one of a very few conservative politicians of importance who realised, as early as 1933 that the key to preventing war was an alliance with the USSR.
He was always an anti-communist but he had the sense to see that Nazism was something much worse and that Stalin was much more trustsworthy than Hitler. Or Chamberlain. Or Daladier.
Or lots of the “appeasers” who didn’t really believe in ‘appeasing’ Germany but in strengthening it for the war against the USSR.
2/ “I suspect we delayed going east in Europe because we wanted to partition Germany and it was a political expedient if Russia took the eastern part. Plus going by our postwar conduct, it would appear that we didn’t appreciate that Russia would occupy the territory it took.”
It is important to bear in mind that-by a very large majority- public opinion in both the United States and the UK, including Canada and the other settler colonies, was very pro-Soviet in 1945. And for a considerable time after it.
This was also true of Europe, both west and east.
It took considerable propaganda and years of ‘education’ to change this.
In other words it was close to being politically impossible for the warmongers in the “west” to attack the USSR- the people would not stand for it. Stalin was probably the most popular leader in Europe in 1945- for years afterwards the USSR was viewed favourably by a generation which knew that it owed many of its lives to the wholehearted efforts of the Red Army. And the sacrifices made by the Soviet peoples.
As to the idea that the “west” did not know that the USSR would occupy the countries that it invaded on its way to Berlin, this is incorrect.
The spheres of influence had been largely agreed upon- hence the desertion of the Greek Communists, for example.
What the Soviet Union did not expect was the West’s deliberate isolation of the USSR and its ‘satellites.’ Stalin looked forward to an era of open elections, including in Russia (where the prestige and popularity of the Communists was at an all time high). He assumed, and many others did too, that free elections in eastern europe would lead to socialist and othwerwise pro Soviet governments. He assumed too, and again, many observers agreed, that similar results would occur in western europe, where the forces united in the various Resistance movements were favourable to the USSR.
There is a reason why the Communist Party was banned in the Federal Republic of Germany and it wasn’t because public opinion demanded it.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 17:35 utc | 80
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 17:30 utc | 75
” Nato has staked everything on Ukraine and especially on this attack, supposed to occur within next few months. No doubt there are tens of thousands US and Polska troops. They are also part of Belgorod raids. ”
Exactly unimperator, exactly !
The scale of the attack will take some Russian telegram channels by surprise, who say all Ukraine can muster is 70k. However, not the Russian military who have eyes in the skies and see everything.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 4 2023 17:40 utc | 81
“…Why bombing mainland Russia and Drones hitting Moscow and Russian civilians dying is no longer a red line…” Derek Henry@78
Derek, the concept of Red Lines in diplomacy or war is juvenile.
The idea that, had Putin publically announced that any drone attack on Moscow would lead to an attack on Warsaw or Berlin or Kiev it would have had any effect other than to cause a massive outburst of drones directed eastwards is mistaken.
Only fools, particularly those with hegemonic ambitions, yield up such hostages to fortune as ‘red lines.’
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 17:42 utc | 82
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 4 2023 13:53 utc | 11
thank you, I totally agree with your take on Levan Gudadze. Like you, I first saw him a week or so ago on the Duran and I anticipate they will continue to feature each other (along with Brian Berletic, MacGregor, Glenn Diesen etc) and build off of respective points of view which is good for all of us. Gudadze lives in Moscow, reads media stories mostly related to Ukraine and then comments. Currently he’s spending a month with family in North Ossetia and promises reports on that region while he’s there. Here’s a link, hes also on Rumble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kba2GK2nCsc
Posted by: migueljose | Jun 4 2023 17:49 utc | 83
⚡️Urgent⚡️Attack near Ugledar repulsed: Armed Forces withdraw⚡️
This is reported by 👉wargonzo project sources at the front.
The unfolded offensive operations of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine at the junction of Zaporizhia and the DPR (Velikaya Novoselovka/Ugledar) ended with the retreat of the neo-Nazis to the previously occupied lines.
Despite the fact that the Armed Forces of the Ukraine managed to achieve minor tactical successes at the beginning of the day, they failed to draw up reserves and gain a foothold properly.
We have already reported that the enemy suffered serious losses in manpower and equipment (at least 7 tanks and about 10 more lighter military equipment were destroyed).
Now the information on losses is being specified.
It is possible that the enemy will resume attempts to carry out reconnaissance in force in this direction tomorrow as well. The situation under Ugledar is heating up.
👉wargonzo
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 4 2023 17:57 utc | 84
@69
why change the subject?
my point was the yalta 1943, not to be mixed up with the later yalta got Stalin to endure western sloth with the agreement the reich would be sundered and reduced to agrarian economies in 4 parts never to unite or industrialize.
nato became necessary to defend the breech of those assurance.
the us’ atom advantage did not stave off kim tackling park’s puppet don in Korea, nor mao smashing us hubris at the Yalu.
korea, indochine…. bleed the west.
as in Donbas WW I style knifing
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 17:58 utc | 85
I repeat….Be happy that there is Putin at the top!
Live conversations with Muscovites tell me that the pressure on Putin is growing…General mobilization and flattening Ukraine…
So the mood about 85% of the people in Moscow!
The Hatliners are getting stronger now after drones towards Moscow…
And one more thing… according to reports from people in Moscow, men and women are almost queuing up in front of military offices… for the most part they are not allowed to join the army because they are skilled workers, engineers etc who are needed or have 2 children… .
If you don’t know that, if you have 2 children under the age of 14, you can’t be recruited.
Only in case of war…. also a reason for the definition of SMO…
Tip: Skype with Russians…that works without any problems, English is usually no problem, German also because German was a compulsory language in Russia at schools (did you know?)
Get opinions on the spot….instead of here philosophical opinions on subjects that most people have NO idea about…
e.g. from the Russian mentality!
Even early Navalni supporters are now on Putin’s side supporting them…NGOs are undesirable among the people…
Posted by: mo3.1 | Jun 4 2023 18:00 utc | 86
nato became necessary to defend the breech of those assurance.
Posted by: paddy | Jun 4 2023 17:58 utc | 85
—
NATO was invented as a rear-guard action.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 4 2023 18:02 utc | 87
In the Office of the President, they decided to go all the way with Mayor Klitschko in the case.
The head of the OP Yermak needs to confirm his authority every time, otherwise, it will be perceived by the elites as a “weakness”.
If Klitschko survives the blow, he will increase his influence, becoming the first among candidates to replace Zelensky.
By the way, he withstood the first blow, directing it against ZeYermak, indirectly blaming the presidential vertical for the tragedy in Kyiv.
All our sources add that the internal redistribution in the state will intensify.
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:04 utc | 88
Attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation will intensify – this is an excellent distracting infocase, and it also warms up panic in Russian society. We immediately insided about it and indicated the reasons and strategy.
DRG GUR will come in, they will “bite” in small groups, as they do today, and create noise on the network, while hundreds of fake videos and photos will be thrown into the network to build up the situation (last time and today it was also).
Most likely, their task is to distract the Russian military leadership.
There is also a version that they want to force the Russians to go on the offensive again in this direction (everywhere where the border regions are), where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already prepared defensive structures.
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:05 utc | 89
465 days of war, and only after the tragedy in Kyiv did we learn about the deplorable state of the bomb shelter! Data on the capital has appeared, which amaze with the inactivity of officials, but the situation in the country is even worse.
44% of shelters in Kyiv are locked or unusable. This was stated by the Minister of Strategic Industries Alexander Kamyshin.
In total, more than a thousand shelters have been checked. 11% of them were closed, another 33% were unusable.
The check was carried out after the death of three people in the Desnyansky district of Kyiv. People could not get into the shelter during the missile attack.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18118
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:07 utc | 90
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in #Belgorod Region until 17:00 on 4 June 2023⚡️
🔹 A difficult situation is developing in the #Belgorod region. In the last two days Russian towns and settlements have been repeatedly shelled by rocket-propelled artillery.
💥 #Belgorod and #Shebekino, as well as #Shchetinovka, Blizhnyaya Igumenka, Bogun-Gorodok, #Stary, #Tishanka, #Kozinka, #Glotovo, #Prilesye, #Grafovka, Novaya Tavolzhanka, #Bezlyudovka, #Murom, #Ziborovka and Maslova Pristan came under fire.
The most critical situation was noted in the #Shebekino urban district, where the AFU fired more than 500 rounds of various munitions. It is noteworthy that a significant portion of the rounds fall near bridges and crossings on the #Belgorod highway from #Shebekino.
❗️Most likely, the AFU is trying to destroy the logistics supply routes of the Russian grouping near the border with #Kharkov region.
⚔️ In Novaya Tavolzhanka, a fight is now underway, where a SRG of about 20 militants without armoured vehicles has infiltrated the territory of the village. This is the second attempted attack of the day.
📌 The AFU is using the cover story of the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps” to attack Russian territories. Both Polish and American mercenaries operate as part of the sabotage groups.
⛑ Interestingly, they are actively assisted by medics and paramedics, whose task is to evacuate the wounded and dead from the battlefield as quickly as possible in order to prevent the bodies of those killed from falling into the hands of the RF Armed Forces.
📜 RYBAR; 4 Jun 2023, 17:32
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:11 utc | 91
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Fighting in the South Donetsk Direction, #Ugledar Section⚡️
🗓 Today (4 Jun 2023), on the border of the #Zaporozhye region and the DPR, several assault groups of the AFU launched an attack in the area of the #Vremyevsky ledge on #Novodarovka and #Ravnopol, as well as #Neskuchnoye and #Blagodatnoye.
According to some reports, the AFU were able to oust Russian units from several strongholds, wedging themselves at a distance of 500 meters to 3 km near #Ravnopol and #Neskuchnoye.
Now Russian gunners, ATGM and mortar crews and aviation are firing at the AFU. Near #Ravnopol, judging by the footage from the channel Revenge of Goodwill, at least eight units of wheeled armored vehicles were destroyed.
At the moment, the fighting continues. The AFU has brought into battle reserve units of the new 31st Mechanized Brigade, which was transferred a little more than a week ago to the occupied part of the DPR.
📜 RYBAR; 4 Jun 2023, 18:41
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:12 utc | 92
@ Norwegian, §56:
The three main native languages in Laos are Khmu (around Luang Prabang) in the north, Katu (around Savannakhet) in the centre and Bahnar (around Attopeu) in the south. Cambodian is also native around Pakse.
Lao, a dialect of Thai, is a colonial overlay.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 4 2023 18:13 utc | 93
Vladimir Rogov (@vrogov) the head of the ‘We are with Russia’ movement in Zaporozhye Oblast reports the following from the front about the reconnaissance in force conducted earlier today by the AFU:
About the offensive of the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye area
Today, at about 12:00 pm, militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, through reconnaissance in force, attempted to break through on the Zaporozhye front in the area of Vremevsky Balka.
The main hostilities unfolded in the direction of the settlements of Novodarovka, Rovnopol, as well as in areas south and southwest of Vremovka (Neskuchnoye-Makarovka) and south of Novodarovka (Levadnoye-Priyutnoye).
About two motorized infantry companies and over a dozen armored vehicles, including T-72 tanks, American M113 armored personnel carriers, M1224 MaxxProo and HMMWV M1151A1 armored vehicles, took part in the assault.
In addition to the regular units of the UAF militants, Polish mercenaries from the Third Assault Group of the Polish Corps took part in the attack.
After two hours of fighting, the Nazis were able to advance about 200 meters, losing at least two tanks destroyed by anti-tank systems, and up to a dozen militants.
As of 16:00, the maximum depth to which the combined forces of the Ukrainian Nazis and Polish mercenaries could penetrate reached 400 meters.
Thanks to the high-quality defense of our fighters from the 5th Combined Arms Red Banner Army of the Eastern Military District and accurate strikes by the Russian Air Force, artillery and aimed mortar fire, the enemy suffered losses (at least ten armored vehicles and about 50 militants) and at the moment they are thrown back from their positions.
Now there are active hostilities. The enemy does not stop attempts to continue their assault, our fighters cover [i.e. hit] the enemy with fire.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/67100
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:14 utc | 94
The enemy is again attacking the Shebekinsky district – which means the constant raids of the vyrus on the Belgorod region
Attacks by enemy DRGs and constant shelling of border settlements cannot but cause a strong reaction among the Russians. But this is the main sacred meaning of these suicidal attacks. A handful of vyruses, even reinforced by a couple of dozen Polish mercenaries, will not be able to influence the course of the SMO in any way, in which hundreds of thousands of military personnel from each side collided.
For Kiev, the reaction of the Russians to such raids and shelling is much more important than real military success. The enemy is doing everything possible so that the RF Armed Forces pull the troops to Belgorod.
The Belgorod-Kharkov agglomeration was formed back in Soviet times. Even after the collapse of the USSR, the connection between the regions did not weaken. Cities “grew” towards each other, and if almost no one lives in the Bryansk or Kursk regions along the border, then in the Belgorod region, within walking distance from Ukraine, there are several towns and villages at once.
This is a vulnerable target, and the enemy will constantly attack it.
And it is extremely difficult to resist this. It is possible to track down a DRG of 15-20 people moving through the forests to the same Novaya Tavolzhanka, but for this, you need to allocate multiple times larger resources.
The border of the Shebekinsky district alone with Ukraine is ~70 km long. For comparison, these are two lengths of the line of contact in the Avdeevka area or approximately 2/3 of the length of the front line in the Zaporozhye direction.
It is possible to close the border so that “the mouse does not slip through”, but this requires huge human and material resources. And all this so that a couple of dozen vyruses could not be photographed at the post office building.
There is only one way out of this situation – the liberation of Kharkov, but it will be problematic to start it before the Russian army repels the enemy counteroffensive.
But you need to work at least with the symptoms until a full-fledged “treatment” is not available. It is necessary to arm the TRO units and form our DRGs operating against the enemy frontier. This game can be played with two people.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/49199
Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2023 18:16 utc | 95
A Ukrainian woman and her 20 yr old son (US citizens with US passports) visited Ukraine to see relatives. They were prevented from leaving Ukraine and sent to the front – woman had medical training – because that had no documentation renouncing Ukrainian citizenship.
It’s hard to believe people are this stupid – but there you go. They got what they deserved.
Posted by: Julian | Jun 4 2023 15:23 utc | 45
Not stupid, naive maybe, thinking US citizenship would protect them.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 4 2023 15:29 utc | 46
Anyone who goes through a naturalization process in the US is made aware that th e US government protections of its naturalized citizens do NOT apply in countries of origin.
Posted by: Pagan | Jun 4 2023 18:17 utc | 96
Why general mobilization? Where are the new 300k from last year? The regular yearly number was also increased, right? Where are those? And many other things are missing, mobilization alone won’t help. for example why there’s enough fuel or electricity for Zely?
Posted by: rk | Jun 4 2023 18:21 utc | 97
@ mo3.1, §71:
Sounds like the Germans are even more drowned in propaganda than the British.
When the Russians are at the borders of Poland & Rumania and “cease-fire” negotiations eventually come about, the British and the German ruling régimes are going to have a lot of explaining to do to their masses.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 4 2023 18:26 utc | 98
RVvoenkor:
during the fighting on the Zaporozhye front, the enemy suffered significant losses and is rolling back
▪ according to incoming data, enemy attacks are repelled.
▪ by air strikes, artillery fire and during the counterattack of our armored groups, the APU were repulsed. Now the enemy is regrouping for new strikes.
in the minefields, from the fire of our artillery, aviation, ATGM and tanks, the APU lost up to 7 tanks and up to 20 units of light armored vehicles: M-113 armored personnel carriers, Hummer and MaxxPro armored vehicles, pickups were also burned.
▪ at least a company of manpower was destroyed.
Posted by: Zaporozhye | Jun 4 2023 18:30 utc | 99
Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2023 17:42 utc | 82
Very true Bevin, but as you can see others view it differently.
Head Wagner 🇷🇺:
“If the Russian Ministry of Defense does not stop the chaos that continues to seize the territory of Russia, we will come to the Belgorod region and protect our people:”
Who knows , maybe if Belgorod was Russia’s version of Monaco things would be different.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 4 2023 18:31 utc | 100