⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (2 June 2023)
💥 Last night, the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a long-range air-based precision-guided strike against enemy air defence assets covering key critical Ukrainian military infrastructure.
All the assigned targets have been hit.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Masyutovka and Berestovoye (Kharkov region). One sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been disabled close to Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽️ Up to 70 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one Grad MLRS vehicle, D-30 and Msta-B howitzers have been neutralised in this direction during the day.
💥 Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade was neutralised close to Kislovka (Kharkov region).
◽ In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Kuzmino (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
💥 Over 60 Ukrainian personnel, two pick-up trucks, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as one Msta-B and two D-20 howitzers have been eliminated.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, the most intensive actions of the Yug Group of Forces were conducted close to Avdeevka.
◽️The Akhmat special forces unit continue their offensive in the Maryinka tactical direction.
💥 Over 50 Ukrainian troops, four armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks, three D-20 howitzers, two Grad MLRS, two M777 artillery systems, and one U.S.-made Paladin artillery system have been eliminated in this direction during the day.
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU units close Vodyanoye and Pavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Malaya Tokmachka and Shcherbaki (Zaporozhye region).
💥 The enemy’s losses in this direction during the day amounted to up to 150 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, and one UAV ground control station.
◽️ In Kherson direction, over 30 Ukrainian troops, two pick-up trucks, one Msta-B howitzer, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system have been eliminated during the day.
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 96 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy manpower and hardware in 73 areas.
💥 Russian air defence facilities have shot down one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).
💥 Air defence forces shot down eight HIMARS MLRS shells and one HARM anti-radiation missile during the day.
💥 In addition, 29 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Novodruzhesk, Kremennaya, Verkhnekamenka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Novobakhmutovka, Vladimirovka, Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region), and Gulyai Pole (Zaporozhye region).
📊 In total, 431 airplanes and 235 helicopters, 4,436 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 air defence missile systems, 9,356 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,108 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 4,971 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,598 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: rumod report | Jun 2 2023 16:06 utc | 3

@4 I’m not in a think tank but from this layperson’s perspective it looks the Russians get a more more bang for their military buck.
Like everything else in the US a big chunk of the freshly printed MIC money goes right down the pork barrel.

Posted by: chunga | Jun 2 2023 16:24 utc | 5

Barflies,
Yesterday I asked the question how long do you think the global war will last ? Consensus was at least a decade. Follow on question:
if you believe the global war will last a decade plus ( and by implication continue to escalate ) …. how are you preparing yourself and family ?
Thank you

Posted by: Exile | Jun 2 2023 16:25 utc | 7

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 2 2023 16:08 utc | 4
First line of the Nuland clan’s media defence strategy, but there are more and more leaks challenging the narrative. As the Conservative Treehouse points out to any doubters about the recent six years of shenanigans, if there are trillions at stake, what won’t they do? The unvarnished truth would collapse the entire edifice they’ve been parasitically sucking from, whilst giving each other reach-arounds in their media-testudo, any threat is therefore existential and treated as such. Beating up the opposition is easy when you have every institution in your pocket, funded by self-interested elites with god-like complexes and secrets to hide; however, it’s a bit harder when your kinetically fighting an opponent who punches back twice as hard, is totally unconcerned or restrained by your construct’s rules and equally views the conflict as existential in nature.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 16:30 utc | 9

“…the pressures of today’s highly technological arms race have taken the initiative and the power to make crucial decisions out of the hands of responsible government officials and placed it in the hands of technicians, planners and scientists employed by vast industrial empires and charged with responsibility for their employer’s interest. It is their job to dream up new weapons systems and persuade the military that the future of their military profession, as well as the country, depends upon buying what they have dreamed up.”
Stewart Meacham “Labor and the Cold War” 1959

Posted by: Cocoliso | Jun 2 2023 16:43 utc | 11

Air defense forces shot down an unknown flying object over Belgorod. Gladkov confirmed the work of the air defense. Information about the downed object is still being specified. According to unconfirmed reports, the object fell near the Belgorod-Arena stadium, where about 1300 refugees are located – Topwar

Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2023 16:53 utc | 13

For those who follow Spriter, he has renamed the twitter account as Sprinter
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880

Posted by: deal | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 15

What is Ukraine doing in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast?
Sustained shelling of Civilians; hundreds of shells and armed incursions. Is this the great Ukrainian offensive; an attack on unarmed civilians?
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/06/02/what-is-ukraine-doing-in-the-town-of-shebekino-belgorod-oblast-and-what-consequences-may-we-expect/
President Putin is a lawyer, and a clever one.
Sometimes a State of War can be brought about between two nation by actions rather than words.
The West has seen time after time that Ukraine uses Western weapons to attack civilians including women and children. The West can no longer pretend that it does not know and is not responsible for the deliberate Ukrainian use of Western weapons on civilians; a war crime.
Is Britain going to take one step too far?
Will Britain’s Minister for War, James (not) Cleverly suddenly discover that England has at last achieved its ambition of being in a State of War against Russia? How will that end?

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 2 2023 17:16 utc | 17

Apparently Ukraine has also committed some tanks into Belgorod front. Two T-72 were supposedly knocked out in the border region today.
Weren’t tanks supposed to be attacking Melitopol etc.?

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 17:24 utc | 19

@ Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 17:28 utc | 20
Thanks for the laugh, I guess, although I’ve heard that joke countless times already.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 2 2023 17:36 utc | 21

Like to see Russia announce snap exercises just before the NATO “games” and move squadrons of fighter planes, bombers as well as brigades of troops with their equipment to Belarus and western Russia. Just in case NATO or some of it’s minions are thinking of doing something really stupid. One thing the Russian military knows is logistics. They can move an amazing amount of men and material in a vert short time.

Posted by: ctiger | Jun 2 2023 17:40 utc | 23

@23″. One thing the Russian military knows is logistics. They can move an amazing amount of men and material in a vert short time.”
Yes It was very impressive when back in early 2021. Russia moved 80,000 men Armor, air support, and supplies to the eastern Ukraine border in 4 or 5 days. I saw all the TG vids from it. Very Impressive.
It would take NATO two weeks to even form a consensus, to start thinking about putting together a mobilization like that.

Posted by: Golddigger | Jun 2 2023 18:07 utc | 25

Full moon over Markinka tonight. Ideal for night vision. Lets see what the Chechens do.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 2 2023 18:19 utc | 27

Bringing forward something from the tail end of the previous Open Ukraine thread and that was eventually sourced to this Telegram channel: https://t.me/kedmi/40052

The network has a message about the death of 22 British intelligence officers in Odessa
The Ministry of Defense reported on the delivery of fire strikes on the night of May 30 at the port of Odessa in four echelons.
As a result, the last ship of the Ukrainian Navy and warehouses with weapons and ammunition were destroyed. In addition, the center of special maritime operations was smashed to dust, while 98 soldiers from different countries were killed and wounded. This was reported by the TV channel “Image of the Future”, referring to its sources.
BAGM 88 Harm, Harpoon UGM-84 installations, as well as two HIMARS with transport-loading vehicles were mixed with the ground, 14 trucks and 34 pickups were dismantled into mangled parts. The total damage is estimated at $1 billion.
The control center for special naval operations was completely destroyed, 36 high-level specialists were killed. Of these, 22 are British intelligence officers, 8 from the BND, four are Americans and two French. There are seriously wounded. They are urgently exported abroad, to Poland, Germany and Switzerland.
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:04 utc | 246

If true, that is an astonishing loss of personnel and equipment; also providing justification for the RF policy of allowing accumulations to build up in one location before launching a strike. However, that channel is the only source making such detailed claims so far. I’d dearly like to find some verification.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 18:34 utc | 29

English Outsider @24
Compliments on the thoughtful post, and excellent sources. Glad to be hearing from my compatriot Patrick Armstrong, in particular, who received a ‘visit’ from Canadian security at the outbreak of hostilities.
I must say though that this emphasis on the preventability of the war (and I appreciated that this is not quite your point) either sets the issue on its head or misses the point. We are not dealing with a political architecture in the West in which peace is the desired state against which diplomatic and policy decisions are to be weighed. The desired end-state is Western Oligarchic Domination. Peace is not a means to that end; forcing on Russia a war it cannot refuse, conversely, is.
The question of whether Russia had ‘other options’ is at least closer to the point. Which I think is this: Even if Russia had other proximate options, virtually all but surrender (and even here, who knows?) would have led to war by another avenue.
Cartagio delenda est. Carthage must be destroyed. From Rome to the 1000-year Reich (halfway there!), to the Wolfowitz doctrine, to the even more megalomaniacal “Full Spectrum Dominance,” this is the trajectory of Western imperial conduct.
Full Spectrum Dominance has been defined not just as superior power in all domains, but a preponderance of power so great that the very thought of resistance does not even occur. This is an objective that the Westoid imperium is actually within site of attaining internally, even as it ever more visibly slips away geopolitically.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 31

Reports of massive air strikes on AFU targets in the Kupyansk region.
According to preliminary information, strikes were carried out using FAB-500 guided glide bombs, on ammunition depots of the 27th separate rocket artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The ammunition depot of the tank battalion of the 14th separate mechanized brigade was also allegedly seriously damaged.
Both units were involved in combat operations in the Svatov region. Previously, a massive missile strike (https://t.me/milchronicles/2002) was carried out against military and industrial facilities in Kharkov.
Aerospace Forces continue to destroy AFU reserves, as they prepare for the counteroffensive.
#Source
(https://t.me/milchronicles/2003) @Slavyangrad / TG

Looks like the most efficient and cost-effective way to answer to AFU incursions on Belgorod border is by striking and advancing on Kupyansk front. Which may take a little more time, but eventually will lead to untenable AFU position N/NW of Kupyansk. If you look at the deployment map, there is very little in the way of AFU forces Dvorichna-Kupyansk sector (albeit it is not inherently important but the value has now risen).

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 18:46 utc | 33

For your reading pleasure. Big Serge postmortem on Bakhmut:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Posted by: morongobill | Jun 2 2023 19:03 utc | 35

Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Tom Clonan ? The man’s a paid for liar, and a bit lacking in many departments. He brings shame and dishonour to the fair, faerie green land !
P.S. Love your name/handle/soubriquet. . .

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 2 2023 19:14 utc | 37

@30 west of England
You’ll never get confirmation of these losses, maybe they’ll run some helicopter accident story(jeez they crash ALL the time) a month later.
No these fanciful russian stories of dead nato officers could be true but you’ll have to take it on faith, just like when they say the killed Ukrainians 7 to 1 in bahkmut(not bloody likely). Or that Ukrainians don’t pick up wounded or have bad hospitals that can’t save lives
I will say though they did for sure sink that ship and it was for sure good for hauling things, and it was somehow connected to the grain deal, so the odds of something bad happening there to ukraine is actually pretty good. Well just never know for sure

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 2 2023 19:31 utc | 39

Vragtes | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 16

We are living in Alice in Wonderland.

Ewwwwww…🤢

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 2 2023 19:34 utc | 41

English Outsider @24
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 32
Did Russia have other options?
Like b, I wrote here that I regretted the Russian action in Ukraine thinking that there must have been another way.
Russia has stated repeatedly that it had no choice. That is persuasive based on what is publicly known about the history of the conflict and the overall context.
Still, all this time I keep wondering – were there effectively other options.
Just recently, other options, were mentioned by 14 former US military, intelligence, and civilian national security officials who publicly called for an end to the war.
In an open letter published on 16 May in The New York Times entitled ‘The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World’ they wrote:
Our attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion and occupation,
nor does it imply the Russians had no other option but this war.
Yet, just as Russia had other options, so too did the U.S. and NATO leading up to this moment.
https://original.antiwar.com/eisenhower_media_network/2023/05/16/the-us-should-be-a-force-for-peace-in-the-world/
If there were other options, what are they, and why are they not named.

Posted by: JB | Jun 2 2023 19:42 utc | 43

Biden rape accuser Tara Reade is defecting to Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/politics/tara-reade-defects-russia-biden-intl/index.html

Posted by: Johnny Boy | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 45

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 2 2023 19:31 utc | 40
Agree, 7;1 too low, given Wagner starting fighting there six months ago. As for casualties see my last post and the possibility they were sheep-dipped.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:50 utc | 47

Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 19:39 utc | 43
https://theaviationist.com/2021/03/22/raf-c-130-hercules-fleet-to-be-entirely-retired-by-2023/
Just saying, perhaps a twofer with the removal of Ben Wallace, ‘who takes full responsibility for this tragic loss of so many promising lives’.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:56 utc | 49

Military summary had the same ideas that Dvorychne (north of Kupyansk) is the current hot spot now. The Russians may be able to hit the Ukro artillery on the exposed flanks, or at least force them to divert attention away from the border. Seems they are having some success in Avdeevka, Maryinka and the Kupyansk area, but the artillery AFU Deployed north can be a problem.
AFU also lost 8 artillery systems in the Donetsk front, which is relatively high.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 20:02 utc | 51

Fighting on the flanks of Artemovsk: the deployed reinforcements stopped the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
▪️The Russian army units deployed from other directions are waging heavy defensive battles on the flanks near Artjomowsk (Bachmut).
▪️In the Kurdyumovka-Ozeryanovka area, the enemy regularly tries to attack with small groups of tanks, Russian troops are actively inflicting fire damage on the attackers and the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the landings.
▪️The opponent’s attack potential has decreased noticeably, but the attack attempts don’t stop.
“>https://t.me/remylind21/2901

Syrsky said that they stopped offensive around Bakhmut, but seems they have the Gambler’s fallacy and can’t quit. At some point it must succeed… succeed… succee…

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 20:30 utc | 53

milchron:
Air alert throughout central Ukraine.
Drone strikes “Geran-2” are expected in Kirovograd, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions, as well as in Kiev and the Kiev region.
Monitoring channels of Ukraine report that a large number of false targets are moving towards Kiev.
Most likely, a massive missile strike will follow.
We are following the development of the situation.
A similar swarm of false targets was observed before the strike on the building of the GUR of Ukraine in Kiev, which the Military Chronicle analyzed in detail earlier.

Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 20:48 utc | 55

John Gilberts is correct about some assumptions about Canada.
But the Russian view is that we’ve no more say in the matter than Yakutia,
and I’m afeered I’ve got to concur with that assessment.
Dhu

Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Jun 2 2023 21:05 utc | 57

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Posted by: morongobill | Jun 2 2023 19:03 utc | 36
Excellent detailed time line of the entire Bakhmut campaign and why it happened as it did. When you strip the western BS narratives away, what is left is a massive AFU/Nato defeat. 30 brigades (including some of the best ones) were chewed up to various degrees, which will affect rest of SMO in a big way. They also have a tendency not to rotate those units, they are left in place to die.
The counter-attack on the flanks fizzled out in less than 2 weeks, which is where another bunch of top notch formations was committed.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 21:20 utc | 59

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 32
FSD at home? Recent events suggest that also is beyond their grasp, which is beginning to visibly slip. Too many bodies, too little quicklime and too many DEI grave-diggers, too little time, to list a few reasons. Deny people their usual methods of legitimate dissent and channels of opposition and they’ll just find alternatives, only historical illiterates forget that truism, which means the ruling elite of course.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 45
Yes all this talk of Russia’s options in the beginning obscures the far more relevant question of America’s and NATO’s options today: continue the deliberate slaughter of Ukrainians in order to shore up one Ukrainian sector’s desire to exterminate the other or put an end to it?
Let them discuss those options.

Posted by: abrogard | Jun 2 2023 21:35 utc | 61

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 2 2023 18:00 utc | 24
Correct. However, it understates the case. Putin had no choice because, in addition to the threatened attack on the LDNR, 1) Ukraine was talking about getting nuclear weapons, and 2) Russia’s treaty proposals were dismissed by the West, which meant Ukraine would enter NATO (despite the West’s denials) or alternatively was and would be treated as a member of NATO and that Aegis Ashore installations would eventually appear in Ukraine, and 3) even if they didn’t, they remained a threat in Poland and Romania.
In other words, Donbass and the Ukraine threat to Donbass was not the cause of the invasion. Ukraine’s NATO status and NATO itself were the cause. The Donbass threat was related to the TIMING of the invasion, not its cause.
That is irrespective of what Putin said in his speech before the invasion.
Very few people even on the pro-Russia side seem to comprehend this which makes all their predictions about the outcome of the war mostly useless.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 21:41 utc | 63

“Throw another Uke on the Fire,
Cook me up some Minky Cabbage Rolls,
Get out and fix them broken tank treads,
Fix up my rotten old Black Hugo’s,
The Boss is Callin’ once a agin:
“Kruschev! Make me up another Country,
‘Cause this Russha’s just to big to start agin”
Sung to the tune of Waylon Jennings
“Put Another Log on the Fire”
Fubar el Haq

Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Jun 2 2023 21:50 utc | 65

Found on M. K. Bhadrakumar’s twitter:

Fifteen months into the biggest land war in Eurasia since the Second World War, the tables have turned. US and NATO began with a confidence that a proxy war was the only way to roll back Russian influence in Europe. It was aimed to cut Russia down to size and snuff out the incipient multipolar order. On paper it was an ingenious, if diabolical, strategy. Ukrainian blood and NATO weapons would be more than a match for Russia. At the very least, western policymakers surmised, Russia would be bogged down in another protracted ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ for years, while America would swoop across the world as a rejuvenated superpower.
The opposite has occurred. On every front in this proxy war – it is more apt to classify the conflict as a limited great power war – US goals have fallen short. The US’s Weak Hand The international community has stayed scrupulously away from lining up behind the West. Other than its loyal G-6 states in tow, Washington has witnessed a resounding rejection of NATO’s plan to demonise and contain Russia. The Global South has instead discovered an opportunity to advance their own interests and embrace a multipolar world order where weaker states can henceforth bargain for better deals with the major players. India’s foreign policy exemplifies this trend that can today be seen in South America, Africa, Middle East and even in parts of East Asia.
Great power geopolitical alignments have also shifted adversely. China – the swing power for the West – has barely budged its position. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Washington has attempted to imagine cleavages between Moscow and Beijing that it could exploit for a new western rapprochement with China. Senior US policymakers, including the President, along with a flurry of European leaders have attempted to court the Xi Jinping regime in an attempt to nudge China away from Russia. But to little avail. The Chinese seem unwilling to jeopardise their partnership with Russia. With their own potential flashpoint right under their nose in Taiwan, Beijing fears a similar fate for itself in the future. Unanticipated Economic Blowback The real trump card in Western hands has always been the economy: the legacy dominance of the US dollar, control over international supply chains, and the ability to arbitrarily impose collective sanctions and isolate a country. These are unique leverages that no other great power can claim to possess as of today. This is where the US truly felt it had the upper hand. It could not only destabilise Russia, perhaps even fatally, but also rewrite a new chapter on globalisation. Yet shockingly again, and despite dramatically severing European energy and industrial linkages with Russia, the blowback to the West has been more severe than the intended impact on the Russian economy.

NATO’s big gamble in Ukraine has failed
I took the liberty of inserting a few paragraph breaks.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 2 2023 22:00 utc | 67

Posted by: un imperator | June 2 2023 21:20 utc | 62
Excellent indeed. After reading about the casualty rate for Wagner convicts I remembered a heart wrenching song by V. Vysotsky, Penal Batallions. They played a role in the Great Patriotic War, mostly silenced during USSR times, I think this is one more reason why Wagner is not a mercenaries joint western style.
Here the great song by Vysotsky, and a decent translation in English, like all translations not as good as the original but it’s not bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQGpqVeUVq8
It’s just an hour until the shelling’s over,
It’s just an hour for troops to have their rest,
It’s just an hour until the major chores,
It could mean medals, or a capital offence.
This hour to pass, we’re writing not a word:
We pray for gods of war – the cannoneers!1
Since we are convicts, not your usual sort,
No need to write “if I get killed, consider…”2
Before the fight, a shot of vodka – nay!
We drank enough of this before conscription,
That’s why we don’t intend to yell “Hooray!”
We’re playing silent on our deadly mission.
A convict has a single code, a single end:
To cut, to pierce the fascist dirty scoundrel.
And if you fail to snatch lead with your chest
You sure will catch a medal for your valor3.
So use your knife or, better yet, your hands!
They’re more efficient and produce no sound,
And if you can survive until the end,
Go spend your ruble, throw it all around!
The foe now thinks that our morale is falling:
They left behind the burning streets and forests.
You’d better save this timber for your coffins:
Breakthrough is led by companies of convicts!
It’s six o’clock, the shelling now proceeds.
Well, god of war, it’s not a time for silence!
It’s just an hour until the major deeds:
For some it’s medals, but for the rest – death sentence.

Posted by: Paco | Jun 2 2023 22:29 utc | 69

Battlefield analyst Big Serge has an article on the Fall of Bakhmut.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem

Posted by: Surferket | Jun 2 2023 22:44 utc | 71

Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Clonan is regularly wheeled out here by our state controlled Irish state media RTÉ as a so called “military expert”. He is a paid for sock puppet for pro-western propoganda, and is laughably poorly informed. The average bar-fly here would be far better informed than Clonan. His key distinguishing feature is reliability, he can be RELIED upon to be russophobic, and relied upon to push pro-Ukro pro-NATO, talking points. I would rely more on the military expertise of our neighbourhood cats who we end up feeding each morning, than Tom Clonan..

Posted by: Gabriel in Ireland | Jun 2 2023 22:59 utc | 73

JB | Jun 2 2023 19:42 utc | 44–
The other options:
#1, UNSCR 2202, otherwise known as Minsk-2. We know that was set up to fail from the getgo. Blinken lies like a million fleas on a dog when he says the Outlaw US Empire, NATO, et al champion the UN Charter. All NATO violated it wantonly.
#2, Russia December 2021 security proposals, which doubled as an accusation of NATO OSCE members of violating three separate OSCE Treaties that aimed at establishing the concept of Indivisible Security, which is also the basis for the UN Charter. Other treaties were also violated by this same cabal. The individual OSCE NATO member nations have yet to provide a response or to admit they broke a large number of treaties. Since it was quite clear that none of those addressed understood what was being discussed, Lavrov on 1 February 2022 sent this letter to the Heads of Foreign / External Affairs Ministers / Secretaries of the US, Canada and several European countries in a last minute attempt for reason to win over delusion.
#3, The infamous and many promises made in 1989, 1990, 1991, not tpo advance NATO “one inch” to the East. The reason for the promise in the first place? To assure Russia that a united Germany wouldn’t again become a threat. The promise resulted in the dissolution of the Warsaw “Pact” forces and withdrawal of Russian forces to Russia from Eastern Europe.
If the promises made at #3 had been kept, numbers 2 & 1 would never have arisen. All the above is publicly available history anyone can obtain.
I documented the events that led to the promised (in December) “military technical operation” in articles posted to my VK Wall. The first move was Putin’s Decree on 15 November 2021 “ON PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT TO THE POPULATION OF CERTAIN AREAS OF DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS OF UKRAINE” that set the table for Russia to conduct its own R2P mission that I discussed here.
On 9 December 2021, the annual meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights where testimony was given by Kirill Vyshinsky that Genocidal conditions were actively present within the area of the two self-proclaimed Donbass Republics. It must be recalled that Russian citizenship was offered to the people residing there and the vast majority took advantage; thus, Genocide was being waged against citizens of Russia. Putin agreed that genocidal conditions exist, while a proper response must be well thought out.
Very intense meetings occurred beginning on 1 February with Hungary’s Orban. They were interrupted by Putin’s trip to China for meetings with Xi and the opening of the Olympiad where they produced the outstanding 4 February Joint Declaration the West has mostly ignored. On 15 February, Scholtz and Putin held talks which was followed by a presser. One of Putin’s replies to the German Chancellor, a retort to the BigLie that genocide was occurring within Yugoslavia and that was the reason for NATO’s Aggressive War:
“Let me just add that, according to our estimates, what is happening in Donbass today is genocide.” [My Emphasis]
There’s more documentation I have I could provide, but they don’t add anything more to the three points above. Most important is there was never any attempt by the Outlaw US Empire to stop the UkieNazis from their crimes; indeed, the USA abetted those crimes. Since the OSS helped Nazis infiltrate into Eastern Europe and directly aided the Nazi OUN with monies and weapons, the USA has wanted to wage war on USSR/Russia to eliminate it–that’s what the entire Anti-Communist Crusade was all about. And really, that’s just the surface of a very deep swamp. Bottom line: Russia was well within its legal rights to defend its citizens, and is also acting within its rights to finish the elimination of Nazism that was agreed to during WW2. The historical facts and Truth are on Russia’s side, which is why the Outlaw US Empire can only spout lies.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 2 2023 23:06 utc | 75

Thanks to the secret work of the Ukraine Liberation Movement across Ukraine who provide the large amounts of information about ammo depot locations and kiev troop barracks, the Russians are able to eliminate many hundreds per day.
Their work is invaluable. Stay safe guys. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 23:16 utc | 77

Thanks to the secret work of the Ukraine Liberation Movement across Ukraine who provide the large amounts of information about ammo depot locations and kiev troop barracks, the Russians are able to eliminate many hundreds per day.
Their work is invaluable. Stay safe guys. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 23:16 utc | 87
ULM have large cells in kiev, odessa, kharkov and Lviv apparently

Posted by: Bam Bam | Jun 2 2023 23:47 utc | 79

“Blinken is selflessly seeking world peace and democracy?
Only a fluoridated inmate from Dachau would flatter his captors such.”
Posted by: Jacq | Jun 2 2023 22:39 utc | 76
Blinken’s’s idea of peace and democracy is total submission to US hegemony. He thinks anybody who disagrees has a bad attitude.

Posted by: dh | Jun 2 2023 23:55 utc | 81

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 23:35 utc | 88
Russia is pulling far ahead in actual functioning air defense technology compared to the US. It’s like comparing the machine gun soldier to the warrior riding on a chariot, in that order.
While they may not yet have a lot of these newest air defense systems like S-500 or A-235 Nudol, eventually they will produce a lot of them. At that point the threshold of simply going and annihilating the eternal anglo b#stards and accepting some losses might not be out of the realm anymore.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2023 0:08 utc | 83

In other words, Donbass and the Ukraine threat to Donbass was not the cause of the invasion. Ukraine’s NATO status and NATO itself were the cause. The Donbass threat was related to the TIMING of the invasion, not its cause.
That is irrespective of what Putin said in his speech before the invasion.
Very few people even on the pro-Russia side seem to comprehend this which makes all their predictions about the outcome of the war mostly useless.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 21:41 utc | 66
Agree. There is often a regrettable shortsightedness which sees the “war” as being just Russia in Ukraine. This leads to views that Russia is going too slow,and should just step up the pace and finish the “war”.
Clearly Russia has seen its war as being against the entire West, with Ukraine just being the first theatre of that war, and one in which civilian populations (in Ukraine) should be protected to the extent possible.
If negotiations in March/April last year had led to resolution of the kinetic “war” with Ukraine, then the broader war with the West would have moved to the next stage. Negotiations were killed by the West and thus the “war” with Ukraine will move on to its inevitable end, the total defeat of Ukraine.
But that will only signal the end of the first stage in Russia’s war with the West. I see it as impossible for Russia to simply fortify the western Ukraine border and allow the West to re-arm and re-build the threat to Russia. Reaching the Polish border will signify the start of the next phase in Russia’s war with the West. Look out Poland, Romania and Finland. NATO Article 5 could be tested then, if not earlier if those countries (particularly Poland) are stupid enough to ramp up their participation in the Ukraine theatre even further.
The only stable solution in the long run is where there is a comprehensive overall agreement on demilitarisation in central Europe. I don’t know whether such a comprehensive agreement would be consistent with the NATO Agreement as it currently stands. We will find out.

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 3 2023 0:25 utc | 85

Posted by: Surferket | Jun 2 2023 22:44 utc | 79
Although an interesting article, I think accurate casualty calculations, if they ever appear, will be post-conflict exercise, given open-source material is weaponised by both sides and anecdotal evidence is often, by its nature, purely subjective. WW2 frontline formations, fighting in the ETO often suffered 200+% casualties to their infantry component, so a Ukrainian unit taking 80% casualties has either 20% of its remaining personnel, meaning it’s effectively destroyed, or 80% of its bayonet strength lost which is survivable. Similarly, without a detailed roster, were some of the brigades/battalions deployed in Bakhmut just renamed, reconstituted formations made up from other shattered units, which might account for the sudden decrease in combat effectiveness suffered by some of these formations. Then again, given the combat effectiveness of a unit peaks after two weeks fighting, so failing to rotate units promptly could also explain for the drop in CE.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 3 2023 0:34 utc | 87

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2023 0:08 utc | 93
I think any window of opportunity will be very short-lived, as there is a demonstrable inferiority in war fighting capability which tends to spur militaries to accelerate their peace-time R&D cycles.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 3 2023 0:42 utc | 89

HERMIUS # 22:42 utc | 77

Sun Tzu – The Art of War
The skillful leader subdues the enemy’s troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.

Indeed. Entirely appropriate to this liberation of Ukraine from its nazi infestation.
I gather this tactic has totally mesmerised the Zelensky cabal. I have not seen any appointment to replace Zeluzhny yet. Maybe the candidates are mostly demised from too many meetings and to much rumble in the bunker.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 3 2023 0:45 utc | 91

The Big Serge Obit on Bakhmut is well worth the read for everyone…. prisoners be dangerous.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 3 2023 0:48 utc | 93

Posted by: Marduk | Jun 3 2023 0:25 utc | 95
Some points:
“If negotiations in March/April last year had led to resolution of the kinetic “war” with Ukraine, then the broader war with the West would have moved to the next stage.”
The problem with that, of course, is that there was zero chance that the negotiations would have resulted in any agreement acceptable to Russia given its requirement to take Ukraine off the board not just re NATO but the need to counter those installations in Poland and Romania. In other words, Russia would only have agreed to end the conflict if Ukraine agreed to do what Belarus is doing: integrate the Ukrainian military with the Russian military and put Russian strategic weapons in western Ukraine.
Obviously that would be a total non-starter for both the West and the existing Ukraine regime. So no matter what, the regime would have to go – and I don’t see any “negotiations” that would have enabled that. Ergo, a negotiated end to the conflict simply was not possible.
Plus, as I’ve mentioned before, people assume the Turkey negotiations produced an “agreement”. If one goes back and reads the articles from that time, there was no agreement, certainly not one that Russia would have accepted. Ukraine produced a proposal that basically would have put things back to where they were prior to the war, possibly “allowing” Russia to retain Crimea. As I’ve noted, this is no longer acceptable to Russia, so would not have been accepted, and indeed was not accepted.
“Negotiations were killed by the West and thus the “war” with Ukraine will move on to its inevitable end, the total defeat of Ukraine.”
Even if negotiations had not been killed by the West, no negotiated result would have occurred due to the issues I mention above.
“I see it as impossible for Russia to simply fortify the western Ukraine border and allow the West to re-arm and re-build the threat to Russia. Reaching the Polish border will signify the start of the next phase in Russia’s war with the West.”
I agree that further steps will probably need to be taken. But any diplomatic or economic efforts will depend on Russia fortifying its entire western border, from Ukraine up through Belarus up through Russia’s border with Finland. It has to build an “Iron Curtain” between Russia and the West. Only then can further moves of any kind be contemplated.
“The only stable solution in the long run is where there is a comprehensive overall agreement on demilitarisation in central Europe. I don’t know whether such a comprehensive agreement would be consistent with the NATO Agreement as it currently stands. We will find out.”
The basis for any long-term solution are the Russian 2021 treaty proposals. Of course, it’s next to impossible for the West to agree to them. So until the ruling elites are removed from Western governments, one way or the other by whomever, there will be no solution but either a Cold War 2.0 or WWIII.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 3 2023 0:52 utc | 95

F16 – unmanned remote control. Great surprise for the June NATO Air exercise. Lots of deniability.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a29847417/f-16-drone/
“The kit allows the drone to take off and land, and perform fairly complicated aerial maneuvers. Typically the drones don’t land, however, because they’re shot down. The QF-16s are used as target practice by manned fighters launching air-to-air missiles. The Air Force’s “Skyborg” AI software, meant to act as an R2-D2 to a pilot in a manned airplane or a computer wingman in a separate, unmanned aircraft, could also be adapted to the QF-16, turning it into a weapon-carrying wingman for a F-22 or F-35 fighter.
The U.S. Air Force has plenty of F-16s in the Boneyard—at least a hundred are lined up in neat rows right now in the Arizona desert. Eventually all Fighting Falcons will make one last manned flight to the Boneyard, and a select few will receive new equipment and a high-vis orange paint job to the horizontal and vertical stabilizers.
Then, it’s time for one last flight before being blasted into bits over the Gulf of Mexico, an unsentimental ending for one of the most well known fighters in U.S. history.”
https://youtu.be/E_A_rEZoXSg

Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 3 2023 1:00 utc | 97

@109 melaleuca
That’s fine I’m not in it for fame.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 3 2023 1:21 utc | 99