Ukraine Open Thread 2023-133
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on June 2, 2023 at 15:48 UTC | Permalink
next page »It appears that Marinka and Avdeevka are now both meat grinders as to reserve troops being sent to them. To hold on, Ukraine must send its best and that brings the SMO goals ever closer.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 2 2023 16:04 utc | 2
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (2 June 2023)
💥 Last night, the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a long-range air-based precision-guided strike against enemy air defence assets covering key critical Ukrainian military infrastructure.
All the assigned targets have been hit.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Masyutovka and Berestovoye (Kharkov region). One sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been disabled close to Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic).
◽️ Up to 70 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one Grad MLRS vehicle, D-30 and Msta-B howitzers have been neutralised in this direction during the day.
💥 Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade was neutralised close to Kislovka (Kharkov region).
◽ In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Kuzmino (Lugansk People's Republic), and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 Over 60 Ukrainian personnel, two pick-up trucks, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as one Msta-B and two D-20 howitzers have been eliminated.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, the most intensive actions of the Yug Group of Forces were conducted close to Avdeevka.
◽️The Akhmat special forces unit continue their offensive in the Maryinka tactical direction.
💥 Over 50 Ukrainian troops, four armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks, three D-20 howitzers, two Grad MLRS, two M777 artillery systems, and one U.S.-made Paladin artillery system have been eliminated in this direction during the day.
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU units close Vodyanoye and Pavlovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Malaya Tokmachka and Shcherbaki (Zaporozhye region).
💥 The enemy's losses in this direction during the day amounted to up to 150 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, and one UAV ground control station.
◽️ In Kherson direction, over 30 Ukrainian troops, two pick-up trucks, one Msta-B howitzer, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system have been eliminated during the day.
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 96 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy manpower and hardware in 73 areas.
💥 Russian air defence facilities have shot down one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).
💥 Air defence forces shot down eight HIMARS MLRS shells and one HARM anti-radiation missile during the day.
💥 In addition, 29 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Novodruzhesk, Kremennaya, Verkhnekamenka (Lugansk People's Republic), Novobakhmutovka, Vladimirovka, Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region), and Gulyai Pole (Zaporozhye region).
📊 In total, 431 airplanes and 235 helicopters, 4,436 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 air defence missile systems, 9,356 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,108 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 4,971 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,598 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: rumod report | Jun 2 2023 16:06 utc | 3
#1 key point on the US War Economy
As Table 1 indicates, the vast majority of the top foreign policy think tanks in the United States are funded by the Pentagon or its contractors. Of the 27 think tanks where donor information was obtained, more than two-thirds (78 percent) received funding from the Pentagon or a Pentagon contractor. Among the top ten ranked foreign policy think tanks in the United States, this figure jumps to 100 percent.
Nuff said.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 2 2023 16:08 utc | 4
@4 I'm not in a think tank but from this layperson's perspective it looks the Russians get a more more bang for their military buck.
Like everything else in the US a big chunk of the freshly printed MIC money goes right down the pork barrel.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 2 2023 16:24 utc | 5
Father of Gonzalo Lira, American jailed in Ukraine, speaks out against “political imprisonment”
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/06/01/father-gonzalo-lira-american-jailed-in-ukraine-imprisonment/
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 2 2023 16:24 utc | 6
Barflies,
Yesterday I asked the question how long do you think the global war will last ? Consensus was at least a decade. Follow on question:
if you believe the global war will last a decade plus ( and by implication continue to escalate ) …. how are you preparing yourself and family ?
Thank you
Posted by: Exile | Jun 2 2023 16:25 utc | 7
https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/tom-clonan-ukrainian-counter-offensive-summer-2023-6082292-Jun2023/
Ukraine plans to send 50,000 women to the front, according to an ex-Irish army officer. That surely means there are few men left?
Posted by: Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 2 2023 16:08 utc | 4
First line of the Nuland clan’s media defence strategy, but there are more and more leaks challenging the narrative. As the Conservative Treehouse points out to any doubters about the recent six years of shenanigans, if there are trillions at stake, what won’t they do? The unvarnished truth would collapse the entire edifice they’ve been parasitically sucking from, whilst giving each other reach-arounds in their media-testudo, any threat is therefore existential and treated as such. Beating up the opposition is easy when you have every institution in your pocket, funded by self-interested elites with god-like complexes and secrets to hide; however, it’s a bit harder when your kinetically fighting an opponent who punches back twice as hard, is totally unconcerned or restrained by your construct’s rules and equally views the conflict as existential in nature.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 16:30 utc | 9
@7 - priorities - have a good nest preferably in a rural area. Have zero debt. A hobby type farm is wonderful. Potassium iodide in the medicine cabinet.
My 2 cents is it won't last that long. Europe is still short the continental supply of natural resources previously made available to them by the evil Rooskies. After they think about Nord Stream for a while it will come to them who their enemy is. Politicians who insist on the warpath will be out.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 2 2023 16:38 utc | 10
“…the pressures of today’s highly technological arms race have taken the initiative and the power to make crucial decisions out of the hands of responsible government officials and placed it in the hands of technicians, planners and scientists employed by vast industrial empires and charged with responsibility for their employer’s interest. It is their job to dream up new weapons systems and persuade the military that the future of their military profession, as well as the country, depends upon buying what they have dreamed up.”
Stewart Meacham “Labor and the Cold War” 1959
Posted by: Cocoliso | Jun 2 2023 16:43 utc | 11
Posted by: Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Are those genuine ‘bodies with female sex organs’, or the chemically enhanced, surgically endowed variety?
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 16:52 utc | 12
Air defense forces shot down an unknown flying object over Belgorod. Gladkov confirmed the work of the air defense. Information about the downed object is still being specified. According to unconfirmed reports, the object fell near the Belgorod-Arena stadium, where about 1300 refugees are located - Topwar
Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2023 16:53 utc | 13
Russia evacuates civilians from the war zone.
Ukraine bombs the refugee camp.
Russia's President is charged before the International Court with genocide.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 2 2023 17:06 utc | 14
For those who follow Spriter, he has renamed the twitter account as Sprinter
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880
Posted by: deal | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 15
bevin | Jun 2 2023 17:06 utc | 14-Yes a total inversion of the truth. We are living in Alice in Wonderland.
Posted by: Vragtes | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 16
What is Ukraine doing in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast?
Sustained shelling of Civilians; hundreds of shells and armed incursions. Is this the great Ukrainian offensive; an attack on unarmed civilians?
President Putin is a lawyer, and a clever one.
Sometimes a State of War can be brought about between two nation by actions rather than words.
The West has seen time after time that Ukraine uses Western weapons to attack civilians including women and children. The West can no longer pretend that it does not know and is not responsible for the deliberate Ukrainian use of Western weapons on civilians; a war crime.
Is Britain going to take one step too far?
Will Britain’s Minister for War, James (not) Cleverly suddenly discover that England has at last achieved its ambition of being in a State of War against Russia? How will that end?
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 2 2023 17:16 utc | 17
“ Politicians who insist on the warpath will be out.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 2 2023 16:38 utc | 10”
Much easier said than done: almost every European party is a warpath party. I doubt anything short of a prolonged general strike or armed revolution will dislodge them, and with the armies headed by drones on the American MIC gravy train and the police forces full of thugs who just like to hurt people, I’m not seeing much hope. Only catastrophic defeat and societal collapse will do.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 2 2023 17:19 utc | 18
Apparently Ukraine has also committed some tanks into Belgorod front. Two T-72 were supposedly knocked out in the border region today.
Weren't tanks supposed to be attacking Melitopol etc.?
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 17:24 utc | 19
Blinken is in Finland, explaining things (hint -- he's big on the UN Charter) . . .
. . .Finns understood that if Russia violated the core principles of the UN Charter – sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence – if they did that in Ukraine, it will imperil their own peace and security as well.We understood that, too. That’s why, over the course of 2021, as Russia ratcheted up its threats against Kyiv and amassed more and more troops, tanks, and planes on Ukraine’s borders, we made every effort to get Moscow to de-escalate its manufactured crisis and resolve its issues through diplomacy.
President Biden told President Putin that we were prepared to discuss our mutual security concerns – a message that I reaffirmed repeatedly – including in person, with Foreign Minister Lavrov. We offered written proposals to reduce tensions. Together with our allies and partners, we used every forum to try to prevent war, from the NATO-Russia Council to the OSCE, from the UN to our direct channels.
Across these engagements, we set out two possible paths for Moscow: a path of diplomacy, which could lead to greater security for Ukraine, for Russia, for all of Europe; or a path of aggression, which would result in severe consequences for the Russian Government.
President Biden made clear that regardless of which path President Putin chose, we would be ready. And if Russia chose war, we would do three things: support Ukraine, impose severe costs on Russia, and strengthen NATO while rallying our allies and partners around these goals. . .
. . .When you look at President Putin’s long-term strategic aims and objectives, there is no question: Russia is significantly worse off today than it was before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – militarily, economically, geopolitically.
Where Putin aimed to project strength, he’s revealed weakness. Where he sought to divide, he’s united. What he tried to prevent, he’s precipitated. That outcome is no accident. It’s the direct result of the courage and solidarity of the Ukrainian people and the deliberate, decisive, swift action that we and our partners have taken to support Ukraine. . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 17:28 utc | 20
@ Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 17:28 utc | 20
Thanks for the laugh, I guess, although I’ve heard that joke countless times already.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 2 2023 17:36 utc | 21
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 2 2023 16:24 utc | 6
I discovered the Moon of Alabama, after reading the article Gonzalo Lira about the reasons and consequences of the SMO. Probably Ukies would just kill him, and no USA would say a word against it. Very sorry.
Posted by: AndrVU | Jun 2 2023 17:37 utc | 22
Like to see Russia announce snap exercises just before the NATO "games" and move squadrons of fighter planes, bombers as well as brigades of troops with their equipment to Belarus and western Russia. Just in case NATO or some of it's minions are thinking of doing something really stupid. One thing the Russian military knows is logistics. They can move an amazing amount of men and material in a vert short time.
Posted by: ctiger | Jun 2 2023 17:40 utc | 23
Re: Putin's options regarding SMO
Have you read Geoffrey Roberts' piece "Now or never: Putin's Decision for War with Ukraine"?
Posted by: Ulrike | Jun 2 2023 12:38 utc | 215
From <https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/ukraine-open-thread-2023-132/comments/page/3/#comments>
The exchange deriving from an exchange with "Sushi" and others of "b's" commenters here:-
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/05/ukraine-open-thread-2023-131/comments/page/3/#comments
Those in turn deriving from previous exchanges. (Gets a bit complicated, all these references. Hope I've got them to the right page!)
................................
Ulrike - Thank you very much. I had not seen it. I know him by reputation as a leading scholar in this area.
I believe Roberts has it dead wrong. So wrong it hurts:-
"As I and other Russian studies specialists state elsewhere: “The invasion is Putin’s war, a war of choice not necessity. The prime responsibility for the conflict, and all its sorrowful, devastating and dangerous consequences, is his.” 3 "
This is Patrick Armstrong, ex-diplomat, Russia specialist, on target:-
"The second reason for the attack was the assessment– and some documents have been said to have been discovered – that Kiev was planning an assault on LDNR in March. Definite proof has not yet surfaced but the fact that the bulk of the Ukraine Armed Forces were positioned to attack LDNR rather than to defend Ukraine’s borders is suggestive. Observing this, Moscow evidently decided on a pre-emptive strike. Putin has mentioned this as a factor.
From <https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2022/03/18/what-i-got-wrong-and-why/>
Suggestive!!! The Kiev forces massed on the LoC, numerically superior to the LDNR forces? The increase in the shelling?
The Kiev forces were only a few miles from Donetsk. These were not the ill-prepared forces of 2014. They were NATO trained and equipped. They were behind fortifications that we now know had been prepared for years and that were (and are) strong. No chance of slipping round the back and cutting the spearhead off.
And had those forces got into Donetsk getting them out would have been more difficult even than Mariupol. We know there were ultra-nationalists in those forces and we know how they conducted themselves last time they got into the Donbas.
No responsible General Staff could have risked allowing those Kiev forces to attack. There are indications, as said before, that Putin left it quite late enough in any case. Putin had no option but to pre-empt. It would have been enormously risky to hope the Kiev forces would not attack in those circumstances and no Western leader would have taken that risk. Neither did Putin.
I believe that if these facts were set out the reason for the SMO would be regarded as self-evident.
Since those facts have never been set out in detail, the Western press can tell us that Putin invaded to restore lost empire. I believe that is incorrect. He invaded because we left him no choice.
.............................
(Putin's remark linked to by Armstrong:-)
(This is what I would like to say for the first time: at the very start of the operation in Donbass, the Kiev authorities were offered opportunities to avoid hostilities, via different channels, to simply withdraw their troops from Donbass as an alternative to bloodshed.)
From <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996>
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 2 2023 18:00 utc | 24
@23". One thing the Russian military knows is logistics. They can move an amazing amount of men and material in a vert short time."
Yes It was very impressive when back in early 2021. Russia moved 80,000 men Armor, air support, and supplies to the eastern Ukraine border in 4 or 5 days. I saw all the TG vids from it. Very Impressive.
It would take NATO two weeks to even form a consensus, to start thinking about putting together a mobilization like that.
Posted by: Golddigger | Jun 2 2023 18:07 utc | 25
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 17:28 utc | 20
I'm guessing that is Blinken's standard speech, modified somewhat for the audience. The (bullshit) talking points are also repeated in Biden's speeches.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 2 2023 18:12 utc | 26
Full moon over Markinka tonight. Ideal for night vision. Lets see what the Chechens do.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 2 2023 18:19 utc | 27
🇷🇺 The Russian army is storming Maryinka, pushing through the defense of the AFU on the flanks and in the ruins in the center
Ukrainian military analysts also report on the progress of Russian troops in the latest reports.
Russian troops managed to push through the defense of the AFU in the northern part of the city, knocking the enemy out of a number of trenches.
With the support of the tanks of the Southern Military District, the assault groups knocked out the Ukrainian militants who were holed up in fortified points in the ruins.
The "Suns" of the Southern Military District hit the platoon stronghold of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Also in the Maryinsky direction, the artillery of the 150 motorized rifle division of the South group disrupted the rotation of the AFU units on the line of contact.
And in turn, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informs that the Russian army is actively attacking in the Maryinsky direction with the support of aviation and artillery, under the blows of the AFU positions in Georgievka, Maryinka, Pobeda and Novomikhailovka.
@RVvoenkor
Posted by: Maryinka | Jun 2 2023 18:27 utc | 28
Bringing forward something from the tail end of the previous Open Ukraine thread and that was eventually sourced to this Telegram channel: https://t.me/kedmi/40052
The network has a message about the death of 22 British intelligence officers in OdessaThe Ministry of Defense reported on the delivery of fire strikes on the night of May 30 at the port of Odessa in four echelons.
As a result, the last ship of the Ukrainian Navy and warehouses with weapons and ammunition were destroyed. In addition, the center of special maritime operations was smashed to dust, while 98 soldiers from different countries were killed and wounded. This was reported by the TV channel "Image of the Future", referring to its sources.
BAGM 88 Harm, Harpoon UGM-84 installations, as well as two HIMARS with transport-loading vehicles were mixed with the ground, 14 trucks and 34 pickups were dismantled into mangled parts. The total damage is estimated at $1 billion.
The control center for special naval operations was completely destroyed, 36 high-level specialists were killed. Of these, 22 are British intelligence officers, 8 from the BND, four are Americans and two French. There are seriously wounded. They are urgently exported abroad, to Poland, Germany and Switzerland.
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:04 utc | 246
If true, that is an astonishing loss of personnel and equipment; also providing justification for the RF policy of allowing accumulations to build up in one location before launching a strike. However, that channel is the only source making such detailed claims so far. I’d dearly like to find some verification.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 18:34 utc | 29
CitizenSmith @ 17
Sustained shelling of Civilians; hundreds of shells and armed incursions. Is this the great Ukrainian offensive; an attack on unarmed civilians?
And supposedly UKR and NATO are short on weapons yet they have plenty to waste on civilian terror. The terror is military trash talking like in sports trying to throw a hot player in the zone off his mark. All I can figure is UKR is provoking Russia as much as possible to get the RF to move too fast and carelessly out of its defensive positions from last fall and overextend itself like at the start of the SMO. Yes, it makes little sense that Russia would just lose its mind and go angrily blitzing forth in the open fields and roads of Ukraine, but then I'm pretty sure it's the UK behind all this and, they do have little sense - arrogance, bad intentions, and little sense.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 2 2023 18:35 utc | 30
English Outsider @24
Compliments on the thoughtful post, and excellent sources. Glad to be hearing from my compatriot Patrick Armstrong, in particular, who received a 'visit' from Canadian security at the outbreak of hostilities.
I must say though that this emphasis on the preventability of the war (and I appreciated that this is not quite your point) either sets the issue on its head or misses the point. We are not dealing with a political architecture in the West in which peace is the desired state against which diplomatic and policy decisions are to be weighed. The desired end-state is Western Oligarchic Domination. Peace is not a means to that end; forcing on Russia a war it cannot refuse, conversely, is.
The question of whether Russia had 'other options' is at least closer to the point. Which I think is this: Even if Russia had other proximate options, virtually all but surrender (and even here, who knows?) would have led to war by another avenue.
Cartagio delenda est. Carthage must be destroyed. From Rome to the 1000-year Reich (halfway there!), to the Wolfowitz doctrine, to the even more megalomaniacal "Full Spectrum Dominance," this is the trajectory of Western imperial conduct.
Full Spectrum Dominance has been defined not just as superior power in all domains, but a preponderance of power so great that the very thought of resistance does not even occur. This is an objective that the Westoid imperium is actually within site of attaining internally, even as it ever more visibly slips away geopolitically.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 31
@ LightYearsFromHome | Jun 2 2023 18:35 utc | 31
---
I've had the thought that Russia has purposely kept their Belgorod border weak in deference to Belarus.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 2 2023 18:42 utc | 32
Reports of massive air strikes on AFU targets in the Kupyansk region.According to preliminary information, strikes were carried out using FAB-500 guided glide bombs, on ammunition depots of the 27th separate rocket artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The ammunition depot of the tank battalion of the 14th separate mechanized brigade was also allegedly seriously damaged.
Both units were involved in combat operations in the Svatov region. Previously, a massive missile strike (https://t.me/milchronicles/2002) was carried out against military and industrial facilities in Kharkov.
Aerospace Forces continue to destroy AFU reserves, as they prepare for the counteroffensive.
#Source
(https://t.me/milchronicles/2003) @Slavyangrad / TG
Looks like the most efficient and cost-effective way to answer to AFU incursions on Belgorod border is by striking and advancing on Kupyansk front. Which may take a little more time, but eventually will lead to untenable AFU position N/NW of Kupyansk. If you look at the deployment map, there is very little in the way of AFU forces Dvorichna-Kupyansk sector (albeit it is not inherently important but the value has now risen).
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 18:46 utc | 33
One of the episodes of the war, the Russians captured the Ukrainian positions
https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/9929
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 2 2023 18:50 utc | 34
For your reading pleasure. Big Serge postmortem on Bakhmut:
Posted by: morongobill | Jun 2 2023 19:03 utc | 35
In pro NATO-Nazi Canada the boot comes down on antiwar activists:
Stop the state-led censorship of opponents of the US/NATO war against Russia!
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/06/02/rfpl-j02.html
"...The event, entitled 'The War in Ukraine and how to Stop It', scheduled to take place on Sunday, June 4, has come under a vicious censorship campaign, spearheaded by the far-right Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) and supported by the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.
The UCC enjoys extensive ties to the Liberal government. In addition to Freeland, a former chief executive at the UCC was recently appointed as Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Anita Anand..."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 2 2023 19:07 utc | 36
Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Tom Clonan ? The man's a paid for liar, and a bit lacking in many departments. He brings shame and dishonour to the fair, faerie green land !
P.S. Love your name/handle/soubriquet. . .
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 2 2023 19:14 utc | 37
@2 eighthman
Precisely so, both cities are virtually empty (except for some old russian pensioners who seem willing to die if they can live under russia again)
In adveeka some weeks ago they ran stories about the 2 families left there, so it's just a battlefield now.
Marianka has for sure been empty for a long time.
It should also be noted russia is shortening the front by advancing between ugledar and Marianka. Nothing flashy but ukraine was forced to give up territory to keep it going, which is the best sign they're strained.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 2 2023 19:19 utc | 38
@30 west of England
You'll never get confirmation of these losses, maybe they'll run some helicopter accident story(jeez they crash ALL the time) a month later.
No these fanciful russian stories of dead nato officers could be true but you'll have to take it on faith, just like when they say the killed Ukrainians 7 to 1 in bahkmut(not bloody likely). Or that Ukrainians don't pick up wounded or have bad hospitals that can't save lives
I will say though they did for sure sink that ship and it was for sure good for hauling things, and it was somehow connected to the grain deal, so the odds of something bad happening there to ukraine is actually pretty good. Well just never know for sure
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 2 2023 19:31 utc | 39
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 18:34 utc | 30
If it’s true expect another 1994 Mull of Kintyre crash outcome, or similar (perhaps nautical). Old SADF tactic when covert ops troops were killed in country.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:33 utc | 40
Vragtes | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 16
We are living in Alice in Wonderland.
Ewwwwww...🤢
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 2 2023 19:34 utc | 41
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:33 utc | 41
Yes, expect an outbreak of Faulty Chinook Syndrome, or something similar.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 19:39 utc | 42
English Outsider @24
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 32
Did Russia have other options?
Like b, I wrote here that I regretted the Russian action in Ukraine thinking that there must have been another way.
Russia has stated repeatedly that it had no choice. That is persuasive based on what is publicly known about the history of the conflict and the overall context.
Still, all this time I keep wondering - were there effectively other options.
Just recently, other options, were mentioned by 14 former US military, intelligence, and civilian national security officials who publicly called for an end to the war.
In an open letter published on 16 May in The New York Times entitled ‘The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World’ they wrote:
Our attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion and occupation,
nor does it imply the Russians had no other option but this war.
Yet, just as Russia had other options, so too did the U.S. and NATO leading up to this moment.
If there were other options, what are they, and why are they not named.
Posted by: JB | Jun 2 2023 19:42 utc | 43
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 32
FSD at home? Recent events suggest that also is beyond their grasp, which is beginning to visibly slip. Too many bodies, too little quicklime and too many DEI grave-diggers, too little time, to list a few reasons. Deny people their usual methods of legitimate dissent and channels of opposition and they’ll just find alternatives, only historical illiterates forget that truism, which means the ruling elite of course.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 44
Biden rape accuser Tara Reade is defecting to Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/politics/tara-reade-defects-russia-biden-intl/index.html
Posted by: Johnny Boy | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 45
@ Maryinka | Jun 2 2023 18:27 utc | 29
I first noticed this a few days ago near Avdeyevka, we seem to be seeing the regular RF Army on the move, not the VDV or Rosgvardia or Wagner or the Chechens.
Could just be press-policy lightening up a bit.
Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 2 2023 19:44 utc | 46
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 2 2023 19:31 utc | 40
Agree, 7;1 too low, given Wagner starting fighting there six months ago. As for casualties see my last post and the possibility they were sheep-dipped.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:50 utc | 47
Posté par: unimperator | 2 juin 2023 18:46 UTC | 34
What is happening on the Kupyansky sector of the front?
In the past few days, Russian fighters have resumed their assault on Ukrainian positions north and northeast of Kupyansk . Recall that as a result of the sortie on May 15, the RF Armed Forces were able to gain a foothold on the opposite bank of the Oskol River .
🔻On the right bank of the Oskol, advanced reconnaissance groups of the RF Armed Forces attacked the positions of the 14th Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Dvurechnaya . Simultaneously with the attack from the south, the artillerymen massively fired on the Ukrainian strongholds from Tavolzhanka .
▪️A favorable tactical position at a height allows you to put pressure on Dvurechnaya, which is located in a lowland. Firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located in the village, therefore, in order to further cover Kupyansk, the liberation of the settlement is necessary.
▪️A couple of days before that, servicemen of the RF Armed Forces knocked out units of the 20th rifle battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the outskirts of Sinkovka . Because of the imminent threat of breaking through the defenses, French-speaking mercenaries arrived at the front line.
🔻Positional battles near Kupyansk are important - thanks to the actions of Russian fighters, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to strengthen the defense of the city and keep forces in this area. This has already affected the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to march on Svatovo , which were postponed indefinitely.
source: @rybar.
Posted by: la bouteille | Jun 2 2023 19:51 utc | 48
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 19:39 utc | 43
https://theaviationist.com/2021/03/22/raf-c-130-hercules-fleet-to-be-entirely-retired-by-2023/
Just saying, perhaps a twofer with the removal of Ben Wallace, ‘who takes full responsibility for this tragic loss of so many promising lives’.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:56 utc | 49
RE: Johnny Boy | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 46
You wrote:
"Biden rape accuser Tara Reade is defecting to Russia."
Wrong choice of words, she is emigrating to Russia. She does so to escape massive persecution in the US as a result of her disclosure.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 2 2023 20:01 utc | 50
Military summary had the same ideas that Dvorychne (north of Kupyansk) is the current hot spot now. The Russians may be able to hit the Ukro artillery on the exposed flanks, or at least force them to divert attention away from the border. Seems they are having some success in Avdeevka, Maryinka and the Kupyansk area, but the artillery AFU Deployed north can be a problem.
AFU also lost 8 artillery systems in the Donetsk front, which is relatively high.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 20:02 utc | 51
English Outsider | Jun 2 2023 18:00 utc | 24
Thanks for this excellent and clear post - it is a summation of the events leading to the war, supported by unblemished sources. I agree fully that the western mantra of unprovoked and unjust war waged by Russia is a big lie.
Worth to keep on file for future reference.
Posted by: fanto | Jun 2 2023 20:20 utc | 52
Fighting on the flanks of Artemovsk: the deployed reinforcements stopped the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ▪️The Russian army units deployed from other directions are waging heavy defensive battles on the flanks near Artjomowsk (Bachmut). ▪️In the Kurdyumovka-Ozeryanovka area, the enemy regularly tries to attack with small groups of tanks, Russian troops are actively inflicting fire damage on the attackers and the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the landings. ▪️The opponent's attack potential has decreased noticeably, but the attack attempts don't stop. https://t.me/remylind21/2901
Syrsky said that they stopped offensive around Bakhmut, but seems they have the Gambler's fallacy and can't quit. At some point it must succeed... succeed... succee...
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 20:30 utc | 53
Posted by: too scents | Jun 2 2023 18:42 utc | 33
I wondered if it was intentional / opportunistic but didn’t think it through beyond that. Certainly it could be seen as drawing fire away from Belarus and even Transnistria, plus warming up public opinion for whatever might come next. Hard to imagine many naysayers in RF now, let alone if the attacks drag on.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 2 2023 20:33 utc | 54
milchron:
Air alert throughout central Ukraine.
Drone strikes "Geran-2" are expected in Kirovograd, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions, as well as in Kiev and the Kiev region.
Monitoring channels of Ukraine report that a large number of false targets are moving towards Kiev.
Most likely, a massive missile strike will follow.
We are following the development of the situation.
A similar swarm of false targets was observed before the strike on the building of the GUR of Ukraine in Kiev, which the Military Chronicle analyzed in detail earlier.
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 20:48 utc | 55
You couldn't make this up could you?
The so-called Russian Volunteer Force, which only exists in the minds of Kiev, has bombarded Belgerod residential areas fiercely today.
What a unique way of gaining support from the russian population in the hope they rise up againast Putin!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 21:01 utc | 56
John Gilberts is correct about some assumptions about Canada.
But the Russian view is that we've no more say in the matter than Yakutia,
and I'm afeered I've got to concur with that assessment.
Dhu
Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Jun 2 2023 21:05 utc | 57
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 21:01 utc | 59
Is a referendum their next step?
Posted by: tim2 | Jun 2 2023 21:12 utc | 58
Posted by: morongobill | Jun 2 2023 19:03 utc | 36
Excellent detailed time line of the entire Bakhmut campaign and why it happened as it did. When you strip the western BS narratives away, what is left is a massive AFU/Nato defeat. 30 brigades (including some of the best ones) were chewed up to various degrees, which will affect rest of SMO in a big way. They also have a tendency not to rotate those units, they are left in place to die.
The counter-attack on the flanks fizzled out in less than 2 weeks, which is where another bunch of top notch formations was committed.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 21:20 utc | 59
Posted by: Exile | Jun 2 2023 16:25 utc | 7
"if you believe the global war will last a decade plus ( and by implication continue to escalate ) …. how are you preparing yourself and family ?"
The answer depends on where you live, what your current economic status and resources are, what the economic impact will be if the economy you depend on implodes, and similar questions. The main question, of course, is whether the conflict will go nuclear.
Which no one can answer at this point. Which is the risk.
Basically, as to the WWIII risk, there is only one answer: be out of the directly affected countries when it happens. In my case, I have two options: go to South America if I can, or if I can't, go to north-eastern Nevada which is the only state in the US where the fallout maps show little or no fallout in the event of a nuclear war. In the latter case, that doesn't solve the problem of surviving in a country where the entire economy has collapsed, and law and order has become either non-existent or completely fascist in the wake of Federal collapse. But it's better than being a radioactive cinder in what's left of San Francisco.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 21:32 utc | 60
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jun 2 2023 18:41 utc | 32
FSD at home? Recent events suggest that also is beyond their grasp, which is beginning to visibly slip. Too many bodies, too little quicklime and too many DEI grave-diggers, too little time, to list a few reasons. Deny people their usual methods of legitimate dissent and channels of opposition and they’ll just find alternatives, only historical illiterates forget that truism, which means the ruling elite of course.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 19:43 utc | 45
Yes all this talk of Russia's options in the beginning obscures the far more relevant question of America's and NATO's options today: continue the deliberate slaughter of Ukrainians in order to shore up one Ukrainian sector's desire to exterminate the other or put an end to it?
Let them discuss those options.
So think tanks are self fulfilling prophecies. 2 new meat grinders and 404 is still winning.
Was talking too my brother last nite. He says things like Ukraine is gonna bust Putin up take back Crimea. I ask if he knows about the Budapest agreement, Minsk 1 2, fuck the EU call. Blank stares. I told him he should read b's series on the rescent history of the conflict. Come here to grab a link to send and OMG internet xfile here. Cant seem to locate it. Who remembers what month that was?
Thanks all
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jun 2 2023 21:39 utc | 62
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 2 2023 18:00 utc | 24
Correct. However, it understates the case. Putin had no choice because, in addition to the threatened attack on the LDNR, 1) Ukraine was talking about getting nuclear weapons, and 2) Russia's treaty proposals were dismissed by the West, which meant Ukraine would enter NATO (despite the West's denials) or alternatively was and would be treated as a member of NATO and that Aegis Ashore installations would eventually appear in Ukraine, and 3) even if they didn't, they remained a threat in Poland and Romania.
In other words, Donbass and the Ukraine threat to Donbass was not the cause of the invasion. Ukraine's NATO status and NATO itself were the cause. The Donbass threat was related to the TIMING of the invasion, not its cause.
That is irrespective of what Putin said in his speech before the invasion.
Very few people even on the pro-Russia side seem to comprehend this which makes all their predictions about the outcome of the war mostly useless.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 21:41 utc | 63
“the far-right Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) and supported by the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. The UCC enjoys extensive ties to the Liberal government. In addition to Freeland, a former chief executive at the UCC was recently appointed as Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Anita Anand..."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 2 2023 19:07 utc | 37
Freeland and Nuland are twins joint at the hip. Both serve the Zionist-Nazi interests.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/05/01/gmgi-m01.html
“Canada has showered Ukraine with more than $8 billion in military and other aid, including tanks, artillery and advanced air defence systems. Canada championed NATO expansion and Russia’s encirclement, helped orchestrate the February 2014 fascist-led coup that overthrew Ukraine’s elected president, and worked in tandem with the US and Britain to reorganize Ukraine’s military to make it interoperable with NATO forces and to incorporate the fascists of the Azov Battalion.”
The American Jewish Lobby is fine with this: "Canada Has a Nazi Monument Problem." https://jacobin.com/2022/11/roman-shukhevych-monument-canada-nazi-ukrainian-ultranationalism
“The historical consensus is that Shukhevych was responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands, including Poles, Jews, Belarusians, Russians, and even other Ukrainians…”
The Jewish Community at large is benevolent toward self-proclaimed Banderite Chrystia Freeland: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/05/01/gmgi-m01.html
"[Freeland’s grandpa] Chomiak’s records show he was trained in Vienna for German espionage and propaganda operations, then promoted to run the German press machine for the Galician region of Ukraine and Poland during the 4-year occupation. …The newly disclosed documents expose Freeland’s repeated lying that Chomiak had been a victim of World War II…
In Warsaw, a file on Chomiak has been discovered at the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN is the Polish acronym)… The IPN has tagged the Chomiak file No. Kr 010/5606.”
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/27/chrystia-freeland-family-record-nazi-war-murder-cracow-jews/
"The records in Warsaw reveal that Freeland’s maternal grandfather Michael (Mikhailo) Chomiak was a Nazi collaborator from the beginning to the end of the war. He was given a powerful post, money, home and car by the German Army in Cracow... During the German Army’s winning phase of the war, Chomiak celebrated in print the Wehrmacht’s “success” at killing thousands of US Army troops. As the German Army was forced into retreat by the Soviet counter-offensive, Chomiak was taken by the Germans to Vienna, where he continued to publish his Nazi propaganda, at the same time informing for the Germans on other Ukrainians. They included fellow Galician Stepan Bandera, whose racism against Russians Freeland has celebrated in print, and whom the current regime in Kiev has turned into a national hero."
Ziocons’ darling Stepan Bandera and his followers: https://www.australianjewishnews.com/looking-back-on-ukrainian-crimes-in-horror/
“The flashpoint for contemporary Ukrainian neo-fascism revolves around the figures of Stepan Bandera and Andriy Melnyk and the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN). Both collaborated with the Nazis during WWII. ... Bandera’s ‘kill order’ of 1941 urged Ukrainians to murder Jews, Poles, Hungarians, Russians and fellow Ukrainians, all described as ‘Muscovites.'
The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) – OUN’s military wing, led by Roman Shukhevych – slaughtered over 100,000 ethnic Poles in the Volhynia region during the northern summer of 1943.
OUN soldiers, who formed the Waffen SS Galizien Divisions, were directly involved in the violent suppression and liquidation of the Warsaw Ghetto, hand in hand with the Nazis in 1943."
Neither Blinken (Jewish) nor Nuland-Kagan (Jewish) is deterred by historical facts depicting Bandera’s followers’ crimes against humanity, including the documented mass murders of Jews, Russians, Poles, Ukrainians… American Zionists are in bed with self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis and are proud of that. See the selection of Mr. Zelensky (a homoerotic dancer and supreme commander of Nazi formations in the Ukrainian Army) as the most influential Jew of 2022. "They" do have no shame.
The Jewish Lobby and Straussians (neo-talmudists) in the US State Department are focused on the genocide of Slavs and on getting nice gesheft from the dishonorable MIC. Note the somewhat subsided squealing “nazi & hitler” from the Simon Wiesenthal Center and the ADL. According to the Jewish Lobby, Banderites (self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis) are freedom fighters!
“Israel lobby group ADL rehabilitates Hitler’s accomplices in Ukraine:” https://electronicintifada.net/content/israel-lobby-group-adl-rehabilitates-hitlers-accomplices-ukraine/35021
Posted by: Cerena | Jun 2 2023 21:50 utc | 64
"Throw another Uke on the Fire,
Cook me up some Minky Cabbage Rolls,
Get out and fix them broken tank treads,
Fix up my rotten old Black Hugo's,
The Boss is Callin' once a agin:
"Kruschev! Make me up another Country,
'Cause this Russha's just to big to start agin"
Sung to the tune of Waylon Jennings
"Put Another Log on the Fire"
Fubar el Haq
Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Jun 2 2023 21:50 utc | 65
check out Big Serge's analysis of the battle of Bakhmut, which was a total slaughterhouse for Ukraine. terrible losses, and most of the city was destroyed. it reminded me of photos of Fallujah in Iraq, and Raqqa in Syria, which the US-centralized Empire destroyed mostly with aerial bombardment
"...Ukrainian soldiers speak freely about Russia’s enormous superiority in artillery, and at one point it was suggested that the AFU was outgunned by ten to one.... Then, of course, there was the shocking February claim by a former US Marine in Bakhmut that the life expectancy at the front line was a mere four hours.
...So, my current working estimates for losses in the Battle of Bakhmut are some 45,000 for Ukraine, 17,0000 for Wagner, and 5,000 for other Russian forces.
But perhaps even this misses the point.
Ukraine was losing its army, Russia was losing its prison population...."
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 2 2023 21:56 utc | 66
Found on M. K. Bhadrakumar's twitter:
Fifteen months into the biggest land war in Eurasia since the Second World War, the tables have turned. US and NATO began with a confidence that a proxy war was the only way to roll back Russian influence in Europe. It was aimed to cut Russia down to size and snuff out the incipient multipolar order. On paper it was an ingenious, if diabolical, strategy. Ukrainian blood and NATO weapons would be more than a match for Russia. At the very least, western policymakers surmised, Russia would be bogged down in another protracted ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ for years, while America would swoop across the world as a rejuvenated superpower.The opposite has occurred. On every front in this proxy war – it is more apt to classify the conflict as a limited great power war – US goals have fallen short. The US’s Weak Hand The international community has stayed scrupulously away from lining up behind the West. Other than its loyal G-6 states in tow, Washington has witnessed a resounding rejection of NATO’s plan to demonise and contain Russia. The Global South has instead discovered an opportunity to advance their own interests and embrace a multipolar world order where weaker states can henceforth bargain for better deals with the major players. India’s foreign policy exemplifies this trend that can today be seen in South America, Africa, Middle East and even in parts of East Asia.
Great power geopolitical alignments have also shifted adversely. China – the swing power for the West – has barely budged its position. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Washington has attempted to imagine cleavages between Moscow and Beijing that it could exploit for a new western rapprochement with China. Senior US policymakers, including the President, along with a flurry of European leaders have attempted to court the Xi Jinping regime in an attempt to nudge China away from Russia. But to little avail. The Chinese seem unwilling to jeopardise their partnership with Russia. With their own potential flashpoint right under their nose in Taiwan, Beijing fears a similar fate for itself in the future. Unanticipated Economic Blowback The real trump card in Western hands has always been the economy: the legacy dominance of the US dollar, control over international supply chains, and the ability to arbitrarily impose collective sanctions and isolate a country. These are unique leverages that no other great power can claim to possess as of today. This is where the US truly felt it had the upper hand. It could not only destabilise Russia, perhaps even fatally, but also rewrite a new chapter on globalisation. Yet shockingly again, and despite dramatically severing European energy and industrial linkages with Russia, the blowback to the West has been more severe than the intended impact on the Russian economy.
NATO’s big gamble in Ukraine has failed
I took the liberty of inserting a few paragraph breaks.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 2 2023 22:00 utc | 67
Thread:
And Russia has decided - Accepts a nuclear war against America‼️Two armies and new units of the Armed Forces will be formed in Russia this year. General Burdinsky announced the formation of two armies and two military districts in Russia and another 1.5 million soldiers. Two armies, an army corps, a new naval area, five divisions, 26 brigades and two military districts will be formed in the Armed Forces of Russia this year, Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Yevgeny Burdinsky said in a published article.
This was published in the June issue of the Ministry of Defense magazine "Military Commissariats of Russia".Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a meeting in December 2022 to discuss increasing the number of the Armed Forces to 1.5 million people.
"In 2023, it is necessary to provide timely organizational and personnel support for the formation of a combined armed and air army, an army corps, the Azov Naval District, five divisions and 26 brigades, as well as the creation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts," Burdinsky announced.According to his words, extensive tasks on building the composition of the Armed Forces, increasing their strength in 2023, as well as implementing organizational measures, must be completed in a short period of time.
This requires organized recruitment, deployment, comprehensive support, synchronization of events with deadlines for handing over the main types of weapons, military and special equipment and other materials, Burdinski concluded. Everything indicates that after the suspension of START on nuclear weapons by the USA, as of yesterday, June 1, 2023, and this announcement by Russia, there is no other possibility than a nuclear collision between the two strongest powers in the world, and therefore a world nuclear war.
https://twitter.com/onlydjole/status/1664589599597895680
Btw, US is dumping its B-61 nuclear bombs into Europe. Most likely a good chunk of them will be dumped into Finland, Poland, Estonia and Romania - no need to ask populations of those countries because the "free and indpedent polls" have already been created.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 22:21 utc | 68
Posted by: un imperator | June 2 2023 21:20 utc | 62
Excellent indeed. After reading about the casualty rate for Wagner convicts I remembered a heart wrenching song by V. Vysotsky, Penal Batallions. They played a role in the Great Patriotic War, mostly silenced during USSR times, I think this is one more reason why Wagner is not a mercenaries joint western style.
Here the great song by Vysotsky, and a decent translation in English, like all translations not as good as the original but it's not bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQGpqVeUVq8
It’s just an hour until the shelling’s over,
It’s just an hour for troops to have their rest,
It’s just an hour until the major chores,
It could mean medals, or a capital offence.
This hour to pass, we’re writing not a word:
We pray for gods of war - the cannoneers!1
Since we are convicts, not your usual sort,
No need to write “if I get killed, consider...”2
Before the fight, a shot of vodka - nay!
We drank enough of this before conscription,
That’s why we don’t intend to yell “Hooray!”
We’re playing silent on our deadly mission.
A convict has a single code, a single end:
To cut, to pierce the fascist dirty scoundrel.
And if you fail to snatch lead with your chest
You sure will catch a medal for your valor3.
So use your knife or, better yet, your hands!
They’re more efficient and produce no sound,
And if you can survive until the end,
Go spend your ruble, throw it all around!
The foe now thinks that our morale is falling:
They left behind the burning streets and forests.
You’d better save this timber for your coffins:
Breakthrough is led by companies of convicts!
It’s six o’clock, the shelling now proceeds.
Well, god of war, it’s not a time for silence!
It’s just an hour until the major deeds:
For some it’s medals, but for the rest - death sentence.
Posted by: Paco | Jun 2 2023 22:29 utc | 69
Sun Tzu - The Art of War
The skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 22:42 utc | 70
Battlefield analyst Big Serge has an article on the Fall of Bakhmut.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem
Posted by: Surferket | Jun 2 2023 22:44 utc | 71
But perhaps even this misses the point.
Ukraine was losing its army, Russia was losing its prison population...."
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 2 2023 21:56 utc | 70
As far as I understand it conscription into Wagner is voluntary, otherwise we would have seen the end of Navalney already. So no Wagner does not exist to dispose of prisoners.
I suggest your comment is a projection of how your own country would behave?
BTW Russia has not used the death penalty since 1996.
Posted by: K | Jun 2 2023 22:55 utc | 72
Wæsfjord | Jun 2 2023 16:29 utc | 8
Clonan is regularly wheeled out here by our state controlled Irish state media RTÉ as a so called "military expert". He is a paid for sock puppet for pro-western propoganda, and is laughably poorly informed. The average bar-fly here would be far better informed than Clonan. His key distinguishing feature is reliability, he can be RELIED upon to be russophobic, and relied upon to push pro-Ukro pro-NATO, talking points. I would rely more on the military expertise of our neighbourhood cats who we end up feeding each morning, than Tom Clonan..
Posted by: Gabriel in Ireland | Jun 2 2023 22:59 utc | 73
CitizenSmith # 17:16 utc | 17
Is Britain going to take one step too far?Will Britain’s Minister for War, James (not) Cleverly suddenly discover that England has at last achieved its ambition of being in a State of War against Russia? How will that end?
It will be an ignominious end and future for the englander elite IMO. As I count it there have been four major decapitation events on NATO elite trainers. One near Odessa about April with the destruction of a sea drone depot and training base, then the bunker buster bang near Lvov in April(?) just as the elite of NATO and Ukraine military were meeting, then the sweet plonk on the bunker in Kiev late May and now this Odessa site in June.
The smartest of NATO have been gung ho to train and steer and 'manage' this victory and it seems to me that the Russian Army is escalating their attack on the very key officers of the nations that are responsible for this war. Meanwhile the meat grinders on the front multiply and increase in intensity according to reports.
I have no illusions that the englander vicious and murderous elite will continue as the spell they have cast is strong and the public trapped in a 'democratic' mechanism of first past the post that denies representative democracy of the will of the people.
There will be more Skripals, more Assanges, more Jeremy Corbyns, more Porton Downs IMO.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 2 2023 23:04 utc | 74
JB | Jun 2 2023 19:42 utc | 44--
The other options:
#1, UNSCR 2202, otherwise known as Minsk-2. We know that was set up to fail from the getgo. Blinken lies like a million fleas on a dog when he says the Outlaw US Empire, NATO, et al champion the UN Charter. All NATO violated it wantonly.
#2, Russia December 2021 security proposals, which doubled as an accusation of NATO OSCE members of violating three separate OSCE Treaties that aimed at establishing the concept of Indivisible Security, which is also the basis for the UN Charter. Other treaties were also violated by this same cabal. The individual OSCE NATO member nations have yet to provide a response or to admit they broke a large number of treaties. Since it was quite clear that none of those addressed understood what was being discussed, Lavrov on 1 February 2022 sent this letter to the Heads of Foreign / External Affairs Ministers / Secretaries of the US, Canada and several European countries in a last minute attempt for reason to win over delusion.
#3, The infamous and many promises made in 1989, 1990, 1991, not tpo advance NATO "one inch" to the East. The reason for the promise in the first place? To assure Russia that a united Germany wouldn't again become a threat. The promise resulted in the dissolution of the Warsaw "Pact" forces and withdrawal of Russian forces to Russia from Eastern Europe.
If the promises made at #3 had been kept, numbers 2 & 1 would never have arisen. All the above is publicly available history anyone can obtain.
I documented the events that led to the promised (in December) "military technical operation" in articles posted to my VK Wall. The first move was Putin's Decree on 15 November 2021 "ON PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT TO THE POPULATION OF CERTAIN AREAS OF DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS OF UKRAINE" that set the table for Russia to conduct its own R2P mission that I discussed here.
On 9 December 2021, the annual meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights where testimony was given by Kirill Vyshinsky that Genocidal conditions were actively present within the area of the two self-proclaimed Donbass Republics. It must be recalled that Russian citizenship was offered to the people residing there and the vast majority took advantage; thus, Genocide was being waged against citizens of Russia. Putin agreed that genocidal conditions exist, while a proper response must be well thought out.
Very intense meetings occurred beginning on 1 February with Hungary's Orban. They were interrupted by Putin's trip to China for meetings with Xi and the opening of the Olympiad where they produced the outstanding 4 February Joint Declaration the West has mostly ignored. On 15 February, Scholtz and Putin held talks which was followed by a presser. One of Putin's replies to the German Chancellor, a retort to the BigLie that genocide was occurring within Yugoslavia and that was the reason for NATO's Aggressive War:
"Let me just add that, according to our estimates, what is happening in Donbass today is genocide." [My Emphasis]
There's more documentation I have I could provide, but they don't add anything more to the three points above. Most important is there was never any attempt by the Outlaw US Empire to stop the UkieNazis from their crimes; indeed, the USA abetted those crimes. Since the OSS helped Nazis infiltrate into Eastern Europe and directly aided the Nazi OUN with monies and weapons, the USA has wanted to wage war on USSR/Russia to eliminate it--that's what the entire Anti-Communist Crusade was all about. And really, that's just the surface of a very deep swamp. Bottom line: Russia was well within its legal rights to defend its citizens, and is also acting within its rights to finish the elimination of Nazism that was agreed to during WW2. The historical facts and Truth are on Russia's side, which is why the Outlaw US Empire can only spout lies.
Excellent article by Big Serge. Zelensky is a prisoner of circumstance, of forces outside his control, I almost feel sorry for him. The people I feel most sorry for are those in towns like Slavyansk and Kramatorsk who rebelled against the 2014 coup and are now being mobilised to fight the very people who are coming to liberate them.
Posted by: Oh | Jun 2 2023 23:14 utc | 76
Thanks to the secret work of the Ukraine Liberation Movement across Ukraine who provide the large amounts of information about ammo depot locations and kiev troop barracks, the Russians are able to eliminate many hundreds per day.
Their work is invaluable. Stay safe guys. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 23:16 utc | 77
Did Russia have other options?
Like b, I wrote here that I regretted the Russian action in Ukraine thinking that there must have been another way.
Russia has stated repeatedly that it had no choice. That is persuasive based on what is publicly known about the history of the conflict and the overall context.
Still, all this time I keep wondering - were there effectively other options.
Just recently, other options, were mentioned by 14 former US military, intelligence, and civilian national security officials who publicly called for an end to the war.
In an open letter published on 16 May in The New York Times entitled ‘The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World’ they wrote:
Our attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion and occupation,
nor does it imply the Russians had no other option but this war.
Yet, just as Russia had other options, so too did the U.S. and NATO leading up to this moment.
If there were other options, what are they, and why are they not named.
Posted by: JB | Jun 2 2023 19:42 utc | 44
Of course Russia had other options.....
1. Create and enforce the Putin doctrine "Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union, as such Russia and only Russia has suzerainty over the entire territory of the FSU, including Ukraine and the Baltic States. Russia hereby declares any government of any FSU successor state which is created via a NATO inspired Coup, or via NATO $$ to be invalid, and primafacie evidence of an invalid goverment is their decision to join any alliance or body with out Russian approval"
2. NUKE all NATO naval and air bases world wide...
3. Nuke Ukraine and the baltic states and Poland and Rumania.
4 Nuke the UK and Norway.
5. Nuke the US and Canada and Australia.
I can think of many other options Russia could have pursued...
Be glad..... very glad ..... that Putin does not think as I do....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 23:35 utc | 78
Thanks to the secret work of the Ukraine Liberation Movement across Ukraine who provide the large amounts of information about ammo depot locations and kiev troop barracks, the Russians are able to eliminate many hundreds per day.
Their work is invaluable. Stay safe guys. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 2 2023 23:16 utc | 87
ULM have large cells in kiev, odessa, kharkov and Lviv apparently
Posted by: Bam Bam | Jun 2 2023 23:47 utc | 79
@. 37 John Gilbert’s. say hello to the brown shirts freeland style. This time they are yellow and blue.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jun 2 2023 23:49 utc | 80
"Blinken is selflessly seeking world peace and democracy?
Only a fluoridated inmate from Dachau would flatter his captors such."
Posted by: Jacq | Jun 2 2023 22:39 utc | 76
Blinken's's idea of peace and democracy is total submission to US hegemony. He thinks anybody who disagrees has a bad attitude.
Posted by: dh | Jun 2 2023 23:55 utc | 81
So Putin has cancer, Lukashenko is dying gets plastered al ovefr western media with NOT a iota of evidence of anything they say. Yet Biden falls over inexplicably (not the first time), he mutters non sensical phrases, completely goes off the subject in interviews........and NOT A PEEP from western media.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 3 2023 0:04 utc | 82
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 23:35 utc | 88
Russia is pulling far ahead in actual functioning air defense technology compared to the US. It's like comparing the machine gun soldier to the warrior riding on a chariot, in that order.
While they may not yet have a lot of these newest air defense systems like S-500 or A-235 Nudol, eventually they will produce a lot of them. At that point the threshold of simply going and annihilating the eternal anglo b#stards and accepting some losses might not be out of the realm anymore.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2023 0:08 utc | 83
That is THE unimperator for you barflies! Troll brigade, take your notes!
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 3 2023 0:08 utc | 84
In other words, Donbass and the Ukraine threat to Donbass was not the cause of the invasion. Ukraine's NATO status and NATO itself were the cause. The Donbass threat was related to the TIMING of the invasion, not its cause.
That is irrespective of what Putin said in his speech before the invasion.
Very few people even on the pro-Russia side seem to comprehend this which makes all their predictions about the outcome of the war mostly useless.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 21:41 utc | 66
Agree. There is often a regrettable shortsightedness which sees the "war" as being just Russia in Ukraine. This leads to views that Russia is going too slow,and should just step up the pace and finish the "war".
Clearly Russia has seen its war as being against the entire West, with Ukraine just being the first theatre of that war, and one in which civilian populations (in Ukraine) should be protected to the extent possible.
If negotiations in March/April last year had led to resolution of the kinetic "war" with Ukraine, then the broader war with the West would have moved to the next stage. Negotiations were killed by the West and thus the "war" with Ukraine will move on to its inevitable end, the total defeat of Ukraine.
But that will only signal the end of the first stage in Russia's war with the West. I see it as impossible for Russia to simply fortify the western Ukraine border and allow the West to re-arm and re-build the threat to Russia. Reaching the Polish border will signify the start of the next phase in Russia's war with the West. Look out Poland, Romania and Finland. NATO Article 5 could be tested then, if not earlier if those countries (particularly Poland) are stupid enough to ramp up their participation in the Ukraine theatre even further.
The only stable solution in the long run is where there is a comprehensive overall agreement on demilitarisation in central Europe. I don't know whether such a comprehensive agreement would be consistent with the NATO Agreement as it currently stands. We will find out.
Posted by: Marduk | Jun 3 2023 0:25 utc | 85
Don Firineach | Jun 2 2023 15:58 utc | 1
Excellent post for the No1 spot.
When looking back on the days and weeks immediately prior to this sloSMO. The work of Kofman and Lee should always be included.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 3 2023 0:30 utc | 86
Posted by: Surferket | Jun 2 2023 22:44 utc | 79
Although an interesting article, I think accurate casualty calculations, if they ever appear, will be post-conflict exercise, given open-source material is weaponised by both sides and anecdotal evidence is often, by its nature, purely subjective. WW2 frontline formations, fighting in the ETO often suffered 200+% casualties to their infantry component, so a Ukrainian unit taking 80% casualties has either 20% of its remaining personnel, meaning it’s effectively destroyed, or 80% of its bayonet strength lost which is survivable. Similarly, without a detailed roster, were some of the brigades/battalions deployed in Bakhmut just renamed, reconstituted formations made up from other shattered units, which might account for the sudden decrease in combat effectiveness suffered by some of these formations. Then again, given the combat effectiveness of a unit peaks after two weeks fighting, so failing to rotate units promptly could also explain for the drop in CE.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 3 2023 0:34 utc | 87
Dr. George W Oprisko #23:35 utc | 88
Be glad..... very glad ..... that Putin does not think as I do....
Happy as a lark ;)
I am very glad that Russia has a leadership team and a populace as civil as they.
We owe them an enormous debt of gratitude - yet again.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 3 2023 0:35 utc | 88
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2023 0:08 utc | 93
I think any window of opportunity will be very short-lived, as there is a demonstrable inferiority in war fighting capability which tends to spur militaries to accelerate their peace-time R&D cycles.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 3 2023 0:42 utc | 89
[email protected] many US vets are in jail? How many, depending on their offense, would jump at the chance to gear up and clear their name???? Military service, in many countries, is mandatory.....it separates the bows from the rain....most of the men in Russian jails will have at least have basic Military training....which is very simple, how to clean your weapon properly and keep your ass down under live fire. Wagner....prisoners ...bit of a joke, ask all those Ukie brigades that got smashed in Bakhmut. By prisoners......cue: The Lira Laugh
Its Friday guys, for those so inclined, please offer some words, light a candle, for Gonzalo Lira.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 3 2023 0:43 utc | 90
HERMIUS # 22:42 utc | 77
Sun Tzu - The Art of WarThe skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.
Indeed. Entirely appropriate to this liberation of Ukraine from its nazi infestation.
I gather this tactic has totally mesmerised the Zelensky cabal. I have not seen any appointment to replace Zeluzhny yet. Maybe the candidates are mostly demised from too many meetings and to much rumble in the bunker.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 3 2023 0:45 utc | 91
Cerena@68
Before the Liberals won the general election and Freeland became a key Cabinet Minister, she was contracted to write George Soros's Official Biography.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 3 2023 0:47 utc | 92
The Big Serge Obit on Bakhmut is well worth the read for everyone.... prisoners be dangerous.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 3 2023 0:48 utc | 93
@72 r rose
Well that's fascinating, most people here think I'm a pro western propagandist because I think Putin is betraying russia for the foreign reserves.
But yes I am also propagandizing anti western defeatism. The leaders of the west are vile and their values abhorrent
A pox on both their houses.
Your feeling offended pleases me greatly
Thank you.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 3 2023 0:51 utc | 94
Posted by: Marduk | Jun 3 2023 0:25 utc | 95
Some points:
"If negotiations in March/April last year had led to resolution of the kinetic "war" with Ukraine, then the broader war with the West would have moved to the next stage."
The problem with that, of course, is that there was zero chance that the negotiations would have resulted in any agreement acceptable to Russia given its requirement to take Ukraine off the board not just re NATO but the need to counter those installations in Poland and Romania. In other words, Russia would only have agreed to end the conflict if Ukraine agreed to do what Belarus is doing: integrate the Ukrainian military with the Russian military and put Russian strategic weapons in western Ukraine.
Obviously that would be a total non-starter for both the West and the existing Ukraine regime. So no matter what, the regime would have to go - and I don't see any "negotiations" that would have enabled that. Ergo, a negotiated end to the conflict simply was not possible.
Plus, as I've mentioned before, people assume the Turkey negotiations produced an "agreement". If one goes back and reads the articles from that time, there was no agreement, certainly not one that Russia would have accepted. Ukraine produced a proposal that basically would have put things back to where they were prior to the war, possibly "allowing" Russia to retain Crimea. As I've noted, this is no longer acceptable to Russia, so would not have been accepted, and indeed was not accepted.
"Negotiations were killed by the West and thus the "war" with Ukraine will move on to its inevitable end, the total defeat of Ukraine."
Even if negotiations had not been killed by the West, no negotiated result would have occurred due to the issues I mention above.
"I see it as impossible for Russia to simply fortify the western Ukraine border and allow the West to re-arm and re-build the threat to Russia. Reaching the Polish border will signify the start of the next phase in Russia's war with the West."
I agree that further steps will probably need to be taken. But any diplomatic or economic efforts will depend on Russia fortifying its entire western border, from Ukraine up through Belarus up through Russia's border with Finland. It has to build an "Iron Curtain" between Russia and the West. Only then can further moves of any kind be contemplated.
"The only stable solution in the long run is where there is a comprehensive overall agreement on demilitarisation in central Europe. I don't know whether such a comprehensive agreement would be consistent with the NATO Agreement as it currently stands. We will find out."
The basis for any long-term solution are the Russian 2021 treaty proposals. Of course, it's next to impossible for the West to agree to them. So until the ruling elites are removed from Western governments, one way or the other by whomever, there will be no solution but either a Cold War 2.0 or WWIII.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 3 2023 0:52 utc | 95
deal | Jun 2 2023 17:13 utc | 15
New spriter/sprinter twitter.
THANK YOU THAT MAN
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 3 2023 1:00 utc | 96
F16 - unmanned remote control. Great surprise for the June NATO Air exercise. Lots of deniability.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a29847417/f-16-drone/
"The kit allows the drone to take off and land, and perform fairly complicated aerial maneuvers. Typically the drones don’t land, however, because they’re shot down. The QF-16s are used as target practice by manned fighters launching air-to-air missiles. The Air Force’s “Skyborg” AI software, meant to act as an R2-D2 to a pilot in a manned airplane or a computer wingman in a separate, unmanned aircraft, could also be adapted to the QF-16, turning it into a weapon-carrying wingman for a F-22 or F-35 fighter.
The U.S. Air Force has plenty of F-16s in the Boneyard—at least a hundred are lined up in neat rows right now in the Arizona desert. Eventually all Fighting Falcons will make one last manned flight to the Boneyard, and a select few will receive new equipment and a high-vis orange paint job to the horizontal and vertical stabilizers.
Then, it’s time for one last flight before being blasted into bits over the Gulf of Mexico, an unsentimental ending for one of the most well known fighters in U.S. history."
Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 3 2023 1:00 utc | 97
Neofeudalfuture | Jun 3 2023 0:51 utc | 105
I don’t think about you at all.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 3 2023 1:05 utc | 98
@109 melaleuca
That's fine I'm not in it for fame.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 3 2023 1:21 utc | 99
Will Schryver over at twitterlandia almost always has some interesting observations about the war, Russia, consequences and where this is all going.
some bits and pieces here
https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1664745039170506752
"Among the consequences of this war, so far, are that Russia's economy is stronger than at any point in the previous half-century; it is independent from US dollar hegemony; it has, with China, launched a multipolar trade/currency regime among the vast majority of the world; and, most ironic of all, it has vastly strengthened Russian military capability, and transformed the combat forces of Russia into the most battle-hardened veterans in the world.
Russia has wrecked two distinct NATO/Ukrainian armies already, and is now wrecking a third before it can even attempt its long-promised (and doomed) last-gasp "offensive".
Most of western academia has been, for at least a century, conquered by vast hordes of intellectual mediocrities.
....They'll (Ukraine) be defeated, demoralized, and demilitarized. Only a minority of Ukrainians were ever in favor of the madness of going to war against Russia. The Ukrainian Banderite factions will be forever hated for the disaster they have brought upon Ukraine.
My sense of matters at this juncture is that Poland will consent to reclaim most of western Ukraine, and that they will work harder than anyone to annihilate the Banderite clans...."
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 3 2023 1:35 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Defense Contractor Funded Think Tanks Dominate Ukraine Debate
QUINCY BRIEF NO. 41
JUNE 1, 2023 33 min read
https://quincyinst.org/report/defense-contractor-funded-think-tanks-dominate-ukraine-debate/
The vast majority of media mentions of think tanks in articles about U.S. arms and the Ukraine war are from think tanks whose funders profit from U.S. military spending, arms sales and, in many cases, directly from U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war.
The analysis offers a number of key findings.
First, of the 27 think tanks whose donors could be identified, 21 received funding from the defense sector (77 percent). Unfortunately, because donor disclosure is voluntary, we cannot determine the percentage of think tank funding that is derived from defense contractors.
Second, in articles related to U.S. military involvement in Ukraine media outlets have cited think tanks with financial backing from the defense industry 85 percent of the time, or seven times as often as think tanks that do not accept funding from Pentagon contractors.
Third, despite a general trend towards greater donor transparency at think tanks, nearly a third of the top U.S. foreign policy think tanks still do not provide the public with information about their funders.
Fourth, media outlets rarely identify conflicts of interest posed by experts they cite from defense industry funded think tanks in cases where they offer their opinions on policies that would benefit the defense industry.
These findings lead to several policy recommendations:
• Think tanks are not required to publicly disclose their donors and many choose not to, hiding their potential conflicts of interest from the public and policymakers. Congress should end the era of “dark money” think tanks by enacting legislation that requires think tanks to publicly disclose any funding they receive from the United States or foreign government agencies or firms that work for them.
• Think tanks should also adopt a professional standard of disclosing, within the publications themselves, any funding the think tank receives from entities that have a financial interest in the subject matter of the publication.
• Media outlets should, similarly, adopt a professional standard to report any conflicts of interest with sources discussing U.S. foreign policy. By not providing this information media outlets are deceiving their readers, listeners, or viewers. This information provides important context for evaluating expert commentary and is, arguably, as important as the commentary itself.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 2 2023 15:58 utc | 1