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June 1, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-132
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Rybar Sitrep Telegram Channel Reports….
https://t.me/sitreports/9612
NATO Countries have exhausted their Ammunition Reserves⚡️
👆According to Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:
💬 So far, the Allies have run out of supplies. To be able to support #Ukraine is an unstable path, so we need to increase production in order to fulfill these new and more ambitious goals,” the secretary said.
One of the reasons for non-offensive is because in order to advance, supplies are needed not only here and now, you need a clear understanding of the guaranteed number of supplies for the next 2 months.
📜 Military Correspondent Lisitsyn (https://t.me/evgeniy_lisitsyn/2876); 2 Jun 2023, 11:50
t.me/sitreports /@evgeniy_lisitsyn/#new/
NATO is out of ammo????
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 11:01 utc | 201
@ Apollyon, §179:
Grayzone is a thorn in the NeoCons` side.
Britain´s very own Nina Jankowicz, Marianna Spring, a protégé of the disgraced MI6 chief Richard Dearlove, plotted on ways to take out Grayzone and their able reporter, Kit Klarenberg.
Klarenberg has again upset The Blob by exposing their machinations in American-occupied Moldova, where they were promoting an invasion of Transdnistria. This has been scuppered by the Russian destruction of the Dniester bridges.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 11:37 utc | 202
Klarenberg has again upset The Blob by exposing their machinations in American-occupied Moldova, where they were promoting an invasion of Transdnistria. This has been scuppered by the Russian destruction of the Dniester bridges.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 11:37 utc | 203
Thank you.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 2 2023 11:51 utc | 203
I’m not done reading all through this thread, but would still like to add some more weight on an observation distilled by james, who himself is out to reinforce an argument which b has developed here, and this argument says that F-16 to Ukraine will not be a game changer, repeat: NOT.
As well I’m with KarlofI on his (and others also) point that the upcoming NATO air exercise led by Germany will also not be a strategic game changer, simply because there is no way these forces can engage in a sustained campaign in eastern Ukraine. It’s just too far away to get there and back, and bring assets such as air tankers and AWACS to bear which are necessarily to be involved to put up a fight. At best, this is some kind of preparatory step for later engagement, but frankly, I can’t see it coming. Russia’s posture is just too tough (though maybe with nukes it’s another thing, I don’t know much about this, or the true wildcard: bio-weapons, which are most probably already in use against livestock and people as well).
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 2 2023 12:01 utc | 204
NATO is out of ammo????
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 11:01 utc | 202
———
That’s one of the main ideas behind the SMO…demilitarise the Ukraine and demilitarise the NATO…
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 12:04 utc | 205
What civil war is in Ukr? Ukr doesn’t exist anymore.
Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2023 10:53 utc | 201
Brilliant! That must be why it is so important for it to claim Crimea etc. If it didn’t, it would be plain for everybody to see it doesn’t exist anymore that Crimea is part of it. Why doesn’t anyone use the expression “failed state” anymore? Very strange.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 2 2023 12:05 utc | 206
Not only demilitarise the EU/US/NATO countries, but also to destabilise the development of those countries. Have you noticed how expensive things are these days in the EU/NATO countries, especially the food items?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 12:09 utc | 207
Sure, and all the Russian patriotic and military bloggers who are screaming the exact same thing are CIPSO plants too.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 2 2023 10:51 utc | 199
No one calls them “Russian patriotic” except other CIPSO plants, just like those attackers who were destroyed at the border called themselves “Russian patriots.” It does not matter how you call yourself, your acts and agenda show you for what you are.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 2 2023 12:13 utc | 208
Romanian is of natural Latin origin, and not principally of Slavic, that is the professional linguistic position on the matter, and surely the community of scholars would know better than to overlook the possibility that it is Latinized Slavic. Obviously English is Latinized German and I could certainly write the following pastiche: [El rumano es de origen latino natural, y no principalmente eslavico, esa es la posicion profesional linguistica, y seguramente la comunidad de academicos sabe mas…], but native English speakers with no prior exposure to Spanish do not enjoy the ease with which Romanians learn Italian or Spanish. Rather the language was organically developed from Dacian Latin. Since the Middle Ages, it has been understood that the Romanians spoke a Latin language: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_the_Romanians#Historiography:_origin_of_the_theories
Posted by: Ludovic | Jun 2 2023 12:16 utc | 209
I’ve been wondering why the US didn’t build stealth aerotankers all along. For a while I thought it might be just possible that they do it as a black project, and the Boeing KC saga was a just a bit of accompanying stage show, but by now they should have built a few hundred, and blown all lids of secrecy long time ago … if anyone has a clue on this, I would be curious to hear.
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 2 2023 12:16 utc | 210
Posted by: Tim | Jun 2 2023 7:01 utc | 150
I’ve been considering for some time that Ukraine is simply going to go back to being “the borderlands” of Russia. Whatever legal fig leaf Putin needs to establish this will be provided – that’s what law is for: to cover the predation of the state. The goal is to take Ukraine off the board as far as the West using it against Russia is concerned AND to enable Russia to use it against NATO in Poland and Romania, i.e., that Military District I’ve stated will be put in western Ukraine.
This will become gradually more obvious as time goes on. Meanwhile everyone will keep talking about “negotiations” and “stopping at the Dnieper” and “frozen conflicts.”
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 2 2023 12:19 utc | 211
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 2 2023 12:01 utc | 205
I think the only weapon that could possibly claim the title of ‘game changer’ is the nuclear variety. Weapons either accentuate or reduce the situation, prior to deployment. Battlefield counters are quick to appear, both doctrinally and technologically, and the status quo reasserts; however, although it’s true that technology has greatly shortened that window to react, a ‘game-changing’ weapon system is normally fielded by the force who would have eventually won the game anyway.
The F-16 is such a case, and added to the dynamic above, (the Russians have over 40 years to develop counters) it brings nothing new to the existing Ukrainian fixed wing capabilities and quite a few limitations that are part of its thoroughbred background, typical to that generation of Western aviation platforms. Adding new BVR AAM’s is a largely theoretical improvement (see my postings about the mentality of the people who created and run the Western SMO counter-strategy) that practically does not address the problems mentioned by numerous posters: logistics, support, engines, age of platform, Russian overmatch, hostile, integrated top-tier AD environment, pilots, etc, etc.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 12:32 utc | 212
Jun 2 2023 10:46 utc | 196
clintons are your basic neoconlibs
bill put strobe talbot into state dept. who brought in victoria (married to a kagan) nuland, 1993!
kagan-nuland been there since bc clintons figured out how to keep the swamp filled beyond their term.
imagine the wars deflected by clinton failing to cheat enough to beta trump!
Posted by: paddy | Jun 2 2023 12:37 utc | 213
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 2 2023 10:30 utc | 189
Re: Putin’s options regarding SMO
Have you read Geoffrey Roberts’ piece “Now or never: Putin’s Decision for War with Ukraine”?
If you are living in the EU/NATO countries, every time you go shopping for food, cloths, or any other essential items, or when you are at fuel pump, or trying to pay for any type services, or pay rent etc, etc you’d understand the meaning of the Russia’s SMO in the Ukraine.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 12:44 utc | 215
Jun 2 2023 12:32 utc | 213
it is instructional to observe that usaf is against sending f-16 to ukrastan.
this is for a lot of the things you mention from posts here.
i was a young man when f-16 was “new”, early 1980’s. it was to be the low end, cheaper complement to f-15, which is expensive and costs a lot to fly. then the soviets invested in front equipped anti air systems (we are seeing that today), which made a-10 (made for close air support) risky to use.
in usaf there is the ‘cult of the single engine fighter’, and f-16, originally a simple gun and aim 9 carrier, was loaded with new electronics, and new missions like shooting air to ground missiles. in the air supremacy role it still needs a lot of off aircraft back up, and the high end f-15/f-22 are so rare as to be useless. and the usaf doubled down with the failed f-35. in my youth f-16 had (not fully fixed) problems with engine like f-35 today!
the usaf cult does not recommend f-16 or there are saner minds!
but the cult is getting a 2 trillion buck albatross with a single engoe!
Posted by: paddy | Jun 2 2023 12:52 utc | 216
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 11:01 utc | 202
More evidence that the anti-war faction are scenting blood and beginning to release counter-narratives (SMO as a Russian training tool, F-16 will bring little) or forcing the pro side to position themselves so they can cover both exits, just in case. Possible scenarios then is the Russians advances recently (with thanks from Ukrainian humint) will strengthen the first group and that the second will concede causing an army revolt in Ukraine, which Russia is already to support and supply. Notice the sudden focus on the anti-Russian resistance operations and view it with the projection lens to see where the real concerns lie.
I predict some pretty sub-standard news and expectations management soon as more stories start to leak about the real state of affairs between the two combatants. Expect more reports with synonymic expressions of unexpected surprise, uttered by an academic of dubious virtue, which is the usual playbook when reality rears its ugly head and destroys their fantasy narrative.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 12:52 utc | 217
re RSH 212 – No, law is not about “to cover the predation of state”, which is a great wording nonetheless. Law is about solving disputes which can’t be solved by those involved on peaceful terms anymore. That is when people call the cops, or when you go to court over some signed agreement in a business case.
Modern legal norms, laws, are essentially made up from three basic aspects, to borrow from Carl Schmitt here: there is a sense of right and wrong in any coherent society, say by tradition or totem, or some such. Then there is a codified and constantly updated protocol of these norms, as goes from mosaic law to lawmaking in congress or the Bundestag. And there is also someone who gets to decide on any quarrels as a resort, as does a judge in a democracy <*cough>, or as the roman emperors did when they personified all legal authority into themselves <*cough* UK>.
What Tom Hobbes has to say about the Leviathan is the root of all western (atlanticist) evil, as far as political philosophy goes. Might makes right, yes suree. Just make sure the guy with the fat club is on your side. Call it a “state”, and then proceed to plunder your neighbours. Also don’t bother to translate Kant (Vernunftethik, anyone?), just firebomb the continent into submission. Yes, sure, bro, that is the way to go, says no one who has any sound basis of reasoning.
No one who realizes that defense against might makes right is logically just a necessary condition to perseverance of order, but not also sufficient.
Just ask the Manicheans.
RSH, I know I’m being polemic. But what about this idea, where in a utopian society there is still kept a codified law as a fall-back option, but everyone tries to avoid ever having to make use of it? The arms locker could be left unopened, the judges had no cases, and no legal penance would have to be spelled. Of course, this prerequisites a working Vernunftethik . . . which is absolutely doable, btw. It would suffice to simply agree that there is someone else around, and that their needs are the same as mine, yet different, and hence in basically equal status in our reasoning about, well, what to do? Don’t get a war going abroad would be for starters, just saying.
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 2 2023 12:54 utc | 218
@ English Outsider, §189:
Entirely agree.
The English have been totally brainwashed, led by the BBC and childish comparisons to Hitler´s invasion of Poland in 1939 – which really was a blitzkrieg, not an SMO.
The academics have failed us, but it´s not entirely their fault. The propaganda emanating from London was extreme in its depictions (shades of covid-fearmongering by applied psychology) and it was pervasive, with all the press and broadcasting heavily censored by 77th brigade, etc. Destroying this dishonest, lying narrative must be a priority, particularly in England where the bellicosity of its government is approaching dangerously psychotic levels.
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 12:54 utc | 219
Posted by: jpc | Jun 2 2023 10:46 utc | 197
It seems revolutionary but the truth of it is hiding in plain sight behind ludicrous arms industry pricing and a failure to appreciate just how cheap a low-g precision guidance controller could be. YouTube videos of amateur rocketry projects amply demonstrate the latter point.
In an imagined alternate universe, where artillery systems haven’t yet been developed but we have present day microelectronics technology, no one would develop gun artillery, it would be a research curiosity while everyone went ahead with the development and production of guided rocket artillery. The 17000g launch force on a gun artillery shell means that it is alway more difficult and more expensive to match the electronic guidance functionality of a comparable guided rocket.
Edepro G2000/52 (Wikipedia) is a modern Grad rocket. 40km range, 19kg warhead. These will cost more than $1000 because they are new and proprietary but you can bet your life that the true commodity price is on the order of $1000 just like the original Grad rockets.
The fact that a $1000 unguided rocket with a range of 40km can be equipped with precision guidance and 50% range extension, for a total price on the order of $2000, is a simple statement of fact. I understand that this is not a commonly appreciated fact but is assuredly the case and anyone who disputes it is obliged to elaborate their argument.
The above configuration would propel a 19kg warhead 60km downrange with precision terminal guidance. It is cheap enough to be used against a single “technical”, trench, sabotage team or other small / dispersed / mobile targets yet it has the range, payload and precision for counter-battery work. And it is still cheap enough to be used for salvos where an area can be covered by tens of warheads almost simultaneously but with a more controlled spread than unguided rockets at the same range.
There is a perfectly rational argument for getting the most value out of existing inventory, expertise and production capacity of gun artillery but that’s the end of it. Guided rocket artillery at true commodity pricing is superior and this would have been true of the original 1940’s Katyusha rocket launcher if its designers had access to modern microelectronics. They didn’t, we do.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 2 2023 12:59 utc | 220
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 2 2023 10:41 utc | 194
Psst, don’t tell them but the Russians have had GSR for 50 years, and doctrinally counter-mine enemy fields!
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 13:04 utc | 221
Ulrike | Jun 2 2023 12:38 utc | 215
my view dec 2022 was “now or never” for biden and the neolobcon, bc china and russia are rising and the middle east in no longer into neolibcon whims…..
i stopped at ‘war with ukrastan…
Posted by: paddy | Jun 2 2023 13:09 utc | 222
@ persiflo, §205:
Yeh, but RT reports Lukashenko claiming Lithuania etc., are preparing coup against Belarus.
Would a NATO exercise provide sufficient cover for a coup in a neighbouring state?
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 13:12 utc | 223
Posted by: paddy | Jun 2 2023 12:37 utc | 214
Imagine deploying your military overseas and then hamstringing them by micro-managing the operation; however, your main priority is over seminal stains on a blue dress, an obsession that effectively paralyse the operation and allows inter-service rivalries to flourish. Trump’s greatest contribution to history was that he was the political equivalent of negative space.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 13:17 utc | 224
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 13:12 utc | 224
An “armed revolution” is by definition an armed attack. In practice, it probably means that from Lithuanian, Polish or Ukrainian territory there would armed groups try to infiltrate into Belarus. It would be equivalent to Nato attack on Belarus. The nukes in Belarus are supposed to be primary deterrent against Poland from trying to attack Belarus.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 13:19 utc | 225
unimperator | Jun 2 2023 13:19 utc | 226
——
Don’t forget that Belarus is now a nuke country. Kaliningrad too.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 13:22 utc | 226
Tim @157: “I feel genuine sympathy for the Ukrainians. If this was a boxing match the ref would have stopped it long ago. Watching helpless people being beaten to pulp is not fun.”
Yes, it is cringe-inducing to see an idiot getting repeatedly knocked down, but being stupid enough to get back up and take the hit right to their face again. I don’t feel so much sympathy for the Ukraine, though. All they have to do to end the pain is stop being nasty, murderous, Nazi assholes. The Russians spelled it out: Denazify, deNATOfy, demilitarize. What is so difficult about that? What is so appealing to Ukrainians about being vicious Nazi scumbags they they choose being Nazis over the very survival of their nation?
If the Ukrainians refuse to grow up and act like rational adults then they forfeit the right to a nation of their own. Sure, they were taken advantage of by con men promising them rainbows and ponies (and rainbow-colored ponies), but these were promises that only morons would believe, much less fight and kill for. At the end of the day, and it is indeed sunset for the Ukraine, the Ukrainian people will have to shoulder the bulk of the blame, along with the majority of the consequences, for their nasty and infantile behavior. They chose the path of delusion and now they are getting spanked for it.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 2 2023 13:24 utc | 227
@ Richard Steven Hack, §212:
It won´t be the Dnieper the Russians will stop at, it´ll be the Dniester. “Chornarus” (the six oblasts around Kiev) is all that will be left of the erstwhile Ukraine – and the name “Ukraine” will vanish from history. Anyway, it was a totally artificial construct of the victorious Prussians and Austrians at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, 1917.
The only “negotiations” will be over Galicia and Bessarabia and whether they go to Poland and Rumania respectively. Those would be contingent on Poland and Rumania handing over their AEgis Ashores to Russia, leaving NATO and demilitarizing (no foreign troops on their territories).
Posted by: John Marks | Jun 2 2023 13:25 utc | 228
@ persiflo | Jun 2 2023 12:01 utc | 205
@ John Marks | Jun 2 2023 13:12 utc | 224
Nordstream blew up after the last “exercise” . . . .
Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 2 2023 13:26 utc | 229
unimperator | Jun 2 2023 13:19 utc | 226
——————
Lithuania has only 2.8m people. Vilnius is just ~45km from Belarus border. And, there is the Suwalki Gap, and also that Klaipeda can be blocked quite easily.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 13:33 utc | 230
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 2 2023 12:59 utc | 221
Deal, I’ll field a Guards Mortar Regiment of BM-13’s and you can have your wizzo upgraded BM-21 Battalion (cost price comparison). Oh, did I tell you? I’ll also have a portable GPS jamming station.
I think the cult of accuracy has sung its siren song to you. An MLRS system, counter-intuitively loses some of its efficacy if it just becomes a PGM launcher. I’d also question the $1000 up of a vanilla 122mm rocket, given economies of scale and production lines set up 60+ years ago, seems like a typical accounting trick to minimise customer cost-shock.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 13:36 utc | 231
Looks like the 3rd Patriot AA system was knocked down today in the morning in Kiev.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 13:46 utc | 232
The direct air distance from Moscow to Kiev is 755km. TU-95MC can release a Kinzhal theoretically from 2000 kms. As the Russian air planes fly anywhere inside Russia, the TU-95MC can release that Kinzhal, say just 200kms from the 1991 border. For example, the air distance from Belgorod to Kiev is 430Kms. The chances are very little for Patriot AA systems to survive. A Kinzhal will hit it between 2 to 8 minutes.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 14:04 utc | 233
There is a free press!
The war in Ukraine was not ‘unprovoked’
. . .A lie the West tells itself is that the war was “unprovoked.” The word “unprovoked” is invoked incessantly, in President Joe Biden’s major speech on the first-year anniversary of the war, in Nato statements, and in the media. The New York Times editorial pages alone have included at least 26 editorials, opinion columns and op-ed pieces that have described the Russian invasion as “unprovoked.”. . .here
. . .from the Daily Star, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 14:15 utc | 234
ostro @233
3 Patriots taken out, that means all of them. But fear not, the next wonder weapon has already been announced: the F-16. I hope they never run out of new wonder weapons because if they do, the only “wonder weapon” left will be nukes and the psychopaths in Washington have used them before.
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 2 2023 14:16 utc | 235
“According to Vyacheslav Gladkov, the enemy fired on a section of the road in the village of Maslova Pristan in the Shebekinsky District. They shelled several settlements of the Belgorod region at once. Shards of shells hit cars passing by. Two women were traveling in one of them, they died on the spot from their injuries. 850 shells hit on June 1 the Shebekinsky urban district, the largest number since the beginning of the shelling of the Belgorod region. Residents of the border villages continue to be sent to neighboring regions”
“Armed Forces of Ukraine struck a hospital campus in the village of Rozovka, Zaporozhye”
“AFU fired from artillery at a checkpoint in the Belgorod region, when there were civilians” – RT
Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2023 14:24 utc | 236
from War on Rocks
What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to Do to Win
. . .Based on our nine months of training with all services of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to include the Ground Forces (Army), Border Guard Service, National Guard, Naval Infantry (Marines), Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defense Forces, we have observed a series of common trends: lack of mission command, effective training, and combined arms operations; ad hoc logistics and maintenance; and improper use of special operations forces. These trends have undermined Ukraine’s resistance and could hinder the success of the ongoing offensive.
. . .Conclusion:
Ukraine has fought mostly a defensive war and will be transitioning to the offense. The ratio of troops in the offense versus the defense can be 3 to 1 (6 to 1 in urban combat). Add in high-intensity urban operations, and that ratio goes up. Ukraine has yet to conduct major offensive operations in a large city or to perform a major river crossing. Both of these operations are very complex and resource- /manpower-intensive, requiring close synchronization of all assets to include infantry, armor, artillery, logistics, and medical to be successful. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have performed admirably but need to refocus their training and operations on combined arms operations and to become adept at operating at night.
Western support to Ukraine has an expiration date that is fast approaching. Also, the will of the Ukrainian people to support high casualty rates is very high but is not infinite. The Russian military has plenty of people and time on their side. The way to change the equation in Ukraine’s favor is through combined arms operations and training. History has repeatedly shown how a well-trained and properly led military can beat a poorly trained army. The challenging part is changing the mentality of senior leaders who have spent decades in the Soviet system to a mission command philosophy that allows for flexibility and initiative with the understanding that it will not result in a disaster or a prison sentence but rather battlefield victory. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 14:27 utc | 237
unimperator | Jun 2 2023 13:19 utc | 226
————
Both Erik Kramer and Paul Schneider are cofounders of the Ukraine Defense Support Group located in Kyiv, Ukraine, so your link is more or less useless.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 2 2023 14:42 utc | 238
Hey Don #238
Is that from War on the Rocks-For-Brains?
It gave me a good laugh, anyway. Pure Armchair Generalling at it finest.
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 2 2023 14:46 utc | 239
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 14:27 utc | 238
Thanks for that link. I‘ve just finished reading the whole thing and my overriding thought was ‘what a shambles!’.
As for the lengthy and detailed training recommendations towards the end of the article, aren’t these 18 months too late??
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 14:53 utc | 240
Good time to attack NATO in Europe and turtle up and force NATO to fight short Ammo and weapons. Blow up Norway gas field and LNG terminals and watch EU collapse.
Optional attack all us ships and bases in Asia. Institute an embargo on the west.
Posted by: Peace | Jun 2 2023 14:55 utc | 241
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 2 2023 14:27 utc | 238
‘Mission based command’ , the DNA of the Wehrmacht once again imprinting itself on this conflict, as it did on the post-War legacy of Western Armies.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 14:57 utc | 242
Hello,
enjoying the “romania origins” talk out there, a welcome distraction from war. To add..
Y’all, Dacia. Who were the Dacians? pals of the Illyrians? are the Albanians Illyrians? right beside these people were Keltoi of some stock. . . any Galicia anywhere in europe (there are a couple, with variants, suggests celts). who was eats of them? Amazons, Scythians.
dacian wars of romans created a very latinsied culture of Dacia, this precedes Salvic migrations. the Dacians were romanised (or probably just their tolerated elites?).
It did become Latin very early, then it was swallowed by Slavic. then you have your usual academia review of origins in the past century or so and nationalism arises. that’s shadowbanned’s stuff. but it was latinised pre-slav. I ask.. who were the Dacians?
Bulgars were a steppe tribe, way between Black and Caspian originally? settled west and slavicised. Lets talk about the Pechenegs too.
Hungary? Magyars? steppe or balt-finno-ugric people? think the balts are different group? but there is some midlle-age Croatia-Hungary thing is there not? i read all this shit ages ago and my rubberheid fails to ref or recall exactly.
I reckon caucasians are Hittites, ha
carry on..
Posted by: rubberheid | Jun 2 2023 14:58 utc | 243
John Marks 229 –
Bingo!
It won´t be the Dnieper the Russians will stop at, it´ll be the Dniester. “Chornarus” (the six oblasts around Kiev) is all that will be left of the erstwhile Ukraine – and the name “Ukraine” will vanish from history. Anyway, it was a totally artificial construct of the victorious Prussians and Austrians at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, 1917.
The only “negotiations” will be over Galicia and Bessarabia and whether they go to Poland and Rumania respectively. Those would be contingent on Poland and Rumania handing over their AEgis Ashores to Russia, leaving NATO and demilitarizing (no foreign troops on their territories).
Posted by: persiflo | Jun 2 2023 14:59 utc | 244
The network has a message about the death of 22 British intelligence officers in Odessa
The Ministry of Defense reported on the delivery of fire strikes on the night of May 30 at the port of Odessa in four echelons.
As a result, the last ship of the Ukrainian Navy and warehouses with weapons and ammunition were destroyed. In addition, the center of special maritime operations was smashed to dust, while 98 soldiers from different countries were killed and wounded. This was reported by the TV channel “Image of the Future”, referring to its sources.
BAGM 88 Harm, Harpoon UGM-84 installations, as well as two HIMARS with transport-loading vehicles were mixed with the ground, 14 trucks and 34 pickups were dismantled into mangled parts. The total damage is estimated at $1 billion.
The control center for special naval operations was completely destroyed, 36 high-level specialists were killed. Of these, 22 are British intelligence officers, 8 from the BND, four are Americans and two French. There are seriously wounded. They are urgently exported abroad, to Poland, Germany and Switzerland.
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:04 utc | 245
to be a bore..
Macedon. ethnicity? Macedonia?
well, northern, non-dorian greek mongrels? greek by culture? Alexander was Macedonian. I know the interim since, vis Balkans.
The meaning has changed in time, modern Macedonians seem slav. territorial names, culturally vague. what does a Salonican think?
i don’t know, just asking.
Posted by: rubberheid | Jun 2 2023 15:06 utc | 246
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:04 utc | 246
Would it be possible to get source on this?
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 15:11 utc | 247
Posted by: Milites | Jun 2 2023 13:36 utc | 232
=)
I believe that the practicality and value of low cost precision has been distorted beyond all recognition by the kaleidoscope of MIC grifterism. You are perfectly correct to suggest that the MIC definition of precision means systems that are far too complex and expensive to be effective in practice, leading to its cult-like appearance. MIC cost-optimises for maximum profit and minimal conflict with other MIC pirate crews, a grand system of demarcation.
Obviously my whole argument is based on the assumption that it is now possible to step outside of the MIC pricing bubble and construct a low cost guidance system upgrade for low cost artillery rockets using components with similar technical specifications and cost as hobbyists components: micro-controllers, servos, miniature accelerometers, photo-diodes etc.
If you dispute the cost of Grad rockets, that’s fine, I have no way to prove a real price point but all the references I could find were in the region of $1000 for the “standard” 20km HE frag and the EPIK articles, which are recent enough, give a total price of $2000 for rocket and guidance kit all in. Perhaps the EPIK price includes a lot of hidden costs but the technical characteristics of Grad are not so high as to make $1000 unreasonable and articles on the Palestinian use of Grad rockets also give the ballpark price of $1000.
https://militaryleak.com/2018/06/04/rafael-epik-rocket-electro-optic-precision-guidance-kit-system/
https://www.edrmagazine.eu/rafael-accurate-rockets-with-epik
The issue of cost is absolutely central so I will additionally note that Grad is unique in that it is the oldest and simplest rocket artillery system that has been in constant production and use since its introduction in 1963. Many nations still produce their own copies and variants of the original design, it is the closet there is to a truly commodity rocket system with technical characteristics that make is a natural comparison with commodity artillery shells.
No worried on the gps jammer, the EPIK articles above are worth reading and clearly describe their gps-free guidance strategy. If anything, EPIK seems overly complex, I’m thinking the most cost-effective solution is to fire rockets on an unguided ballistic path from existing launchers but with a laser seeker activating in the terminal phase. Spotter drones can illuminate the target.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 2 2023 15:24 utc | 248
unimperator 248
source is johnny rotten at smoothiex12 (see Scott Just Returned From Russia)
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:30 utc | 249
Posted by: repost | Jun 2 2023 15:04 utc | 246
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 2 2023 15:11 utc | 248
It is indeed a repost of a comment on Andrei M’s blog, from a regular there with the username @johnny rotten, who, in turn, quotes this Telegram link as the source: https://t.me/kedmi/40052
I can’t see how to post a link to the comment at Smoothies, wretched Disqus gets in the way, but it’s in the comments under this topic: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/06/scott-just-returned-from-russia.html
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 15:39 utc | 250
I can’t see how to post a link to the comment
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 2 2023 15:39 utc | 251
it’s the link found in the date of the comment (“x hours ago”)
smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/06/scott-just-returned-from-russia.html#comment-6199094512
Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2023 16:33 utc | 251
@Tim 150
Since you mention Mercouris – did Mercouris by now happen to quote from the message he received a few days ago from an anonymous scholar critical of the Russian decision to go to war?
It happened in reference to the Eisenhower network op-ed in the NYT (“the war is an unmitigated desaster”) and Ray McGovern´s doubt that the Russian had any alternatives.
Mercouris only mentioned the message he had received but no detailed content, yet.
Posted by: AG | Jun 2 2023 18:32 utc | 252
Re: Posted by: jo_svk | Jun 2 2023 9:13 utc | 171
Many in Poland are convinced about their victimhood. As for “Poland”, that is different.
The dramatic episods associated with Russia are deliberately planted and Cultivated in the common memory. They were, no doubt about it. Alas, were these tribulations unique? Many in Poland dwell on this.
Nobody I spoke with knows about the Highlands Clearing or the genocide events, mass graves in Ireland (read Irish American News). Even today, the tragic events in former Yougoslavia are presented in false light.
Many Poles like to have that Russian enemy.
Alas, never heard (and I was conducting an unscientific query) about the Red Army (or Russians) burning a village in Poland. And killing the inhabitants (Lidice). The German gallant forces, occupiers did it in numerous instances. Warsaw was deliberately flattened (after Stalingrad and before Mosul or Fallujah) – and this adds to the not known knowns.
Summing this up – readership and learning of History is not a strong side of the Polacks. And I am one.
A hyena, perhaps.
Posted by: LogosApplied | Jun 2 2023 19:23 utc | 253
LogosApplied: Well, the Poles certainly remember Katyn!
Maybe they’re willing to let bygones be bygones with the Nazis because…well, let’s just say they don’t miss their Jews all that much.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 2 2023 21:58 utc | 254
malenkov | Jun 2 2023 21:58 utc | 255
*** Maybe they’re willing to let bygones be bygones with the Nazis because…well, let’s just say they don’t miss their Jews all that much.***
Many of the Poles must be amazingly stupid not to realise that revenge will already have been devised against them — commencing with Poland being effectively *occupied* by US forces; and quite likely involving Oligarch-employed, Slav-hating Ukronazis as well, at a later stage.
Yet, perhaps strangely, that’s what the present Polish regime (government and alleged opposition) seems to very much want.
Posted by: C. Morrison | Jun 2 2023 23:10 utc | 255
Posted by: LogosApplied | Jun 2 2023 19:23 utc | 254
I think two of the people making the Katyn decision were Ukrainian – Kaganovich and Voroshilov. Voroshilov was born in Bakhmut.
Posted by: Technophobe | Jun 2 2023 23:11 utc | 256
LogosApplied | Jun 2 2023 19:23 utc | 254
*** Nobody I spoke with knows about the Highlands Clearing***
The UK population aren’t much better, when it comes to the Clearances or the subsequent plight of low-paid workers in industrialised areas.
Of course the liberal mass-media generally ignores all that and instead tries to stuff the heads of the public with wokist guilt about one variety of “slavery”.
For the exclusive profit of liberal elites and traders of all races (but don’t expect demands to be made to Israel for reparations) — yet the descendants of the oppressed (not the oppressors — how jolly convenient) in Britain should, according to liberal / wokist mass-media and political spivs, be made to to pay billions in “reparations” to just one type of slave.
Posted by: C. Morrison | Jun 2 2023 23:36 utc | 257
Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 11:01 utc | 202
** NATO is out of ammo????**
They do usually say “reserve” supplies, so it could depend on what NATO members regard as their own immediate rather than long term needs.
Posted by: Cynic | Jun 2 2023 23:44 utc | 258
That’s how you know a CIPSO plant. Killing a 10-year old boy was not a disgrace, but evacuating civilians is.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 2 2023 10:15 utc | 184
Nope. You fail to understand his mentality. He posted around 5 different Ukrainian attacks, just before that post, about Ukrainian attacks which killed and injured civilians, including a double post on the boy killed (perhaps his hands were trembling in rage). He is angry and his rage and frustration was building ever higher.
Compare that to those here who ignore the civilian deaths, just like most on the defunct Saker blog, including Saker himself, and that many are whining about the Ukrainian soldiers – the same Ukrainian soldiers who are murdering and maiming civilians all over the Donbass and in the Russian border region, the same ones who will not stop or even slow their attacks on civilians.
And the disgrace is that Russia is FAILING to protect the civilians and that area within its own border. The evacuation means authorities there know they can’t protect it and predicts the attacks/shellings will get worse, and that the Russian government, even though it does have the means and resources to do much better there, is not taking the measures it could, either incompetence or stinginess towards this region.
Posted by: MiniMo | Jun 3 2023 2:54 utc | 259
No one weeps for textile workers in Manchester etc. don’t weep for black field hands in the Americas.
Posted by: Wokechoke | Jun 3 2023 11:40 utc | 260
Posted by: MiniMo | Jun 3 2023 2:54 utc | 260
«the same Ukrainian soldiers who are murdering and maiming civilians all over the Donbass and in the Russian border region, the same ones who will not stop or even slow their attacks on civilians.»
They are doing so not out of hatred or spite for the “orcs”, but pursuing a long term USA plan: keep using attacks on russians in a lot of places outside (or inside) the RF to “poke the bear”, with the goal, over the next 10-20 years, to overextend it and trigger regime change and the dissolution of the RF.
«And the disgrace is that Russia is FAILING to protect the civilians and that area within its own border […] the Russian government, even though it does have the means and resources to do much better there, is not taking the measures it could, either incompetence or stinginess towards this region.»
In a previous episode the russians abandoned and set fire to Moscow itself, and that was the smart thing to do:
* When you have immense strategic depth, use it, it is cheap.
* When you have immense borders, trying to defend all of them against “poke the bear” running attacks is a waste of resources.
BTW as to previous “poke the bear” cases, recently the Foreign Minister of Poland reminded the EU governments of the ever present threat of russian invasion, by citing the russian attacks on Berlin in 1945 and on Paris in 1814. Really no sense of shame…
Posted by: Blissex | Jun 3 2023 15:16 utc | 261
This post:
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Mercury | Jun 1 2023 21:53 utc | 103
The Slavs are one of the most genetically mixed populations on the planet so the chances of a specifically Slavic biomarker are close to nil.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Jun 1 2023 22:06 utc | 100
___________________________
is a usurpation of the user name of the person who has posted here under that name from time to time for several years. I know it’s a cool and clever one, but we can’t all use it, can we? Perhaps the usurper can find another one… Let’s see… Hm, how about Heywood Giablomi?
Posted by: Gene Poole | Jun 3 2023 19:33 utc | 262
re: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 2 2023 11:01 utc | 202 and ostro | Jun 2 2023 12:04 utc | 206
If NATO is truly out of ammao and short on equipment, maybe a good time for the Russian Army to stop at the Upper Rhine? lol
Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 3 2023 20:11 utc | 263