Ukraine Open Thread 2023-132
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on June 1, 2023 at 15:28 UTC | Permalink
next page »Fellow Barflies;
When the Ukrainian Civil War heated up early last year after Moscow‘s Peacekeepers were invited in , I asked you all 2 questions. I‘d like to revisit those 2 questions:
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
❗️This morning, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, jointly with units of the Federal Border Guard Service of Russia and other units of the Russian Federal Security Service, have foiled a new attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack against the civilian population of Shebekino (Belgorod region).
◽️ At around 3:00 a.m. Moscow time, after intense shelling of civilian facilities in Belgorod region, Ukrainian terrorist groups with up to two motorised infantry companies reinforced with tanks attempted to invade Russian territory near Novaya Tavolzhanka and the Shebekino international road checkpoint.
🛡Three attacks by Ukrainian terrorist formations were repelled by the selfless actions of Russian servicemen. Helicopters of the Western Military District carried out eleven strikes on the enemy. Rocket and artillery forces carried out 77 firing missions, and two heavy flamethrowers launched two strikes.
◽️ As a result of active operations by the border troops of the Western Military District and the Russian Federal Security Service, the terrorist units of the Kiev regime, which suffered significant losses, were driven back.
◽️ There was no violation of the State border.
💥 More than 30 Ukrainian terrorists, four armoured fighting vehicles, one Grad MLRS vehicle, and one pick-up truck were neutralised in the border area on the Ukrainian side.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Timkovka and Berestovoye (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
◽️ In addition, actions of three sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were thwarted near Sinkovka and Kislovka (Kharkov region) and Rozovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
💥 During the day, up to 45 Ukrainian servicemen, three motor vehicles, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer have been neutralised.
💥 In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Karmazinovka, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️ One sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been disabled close to Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic).
💥 The enemy's losses amounted to up to 80 Ukrainian troops, two pick-up trucks, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer during the day.
◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade was neutralised close to Antonovka.
💥In Donetsk direction, units of the 1st Army Corps are fighting close to Avdeevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️ The assault units of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade and the Akhmat special forces unit continue their offensive in the Maryinka tactical direction.
◽️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Yug Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on the enemy's manpower and hardware close to Georgiyevka, Lastochkino, and Tonenkoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 In the past 24 hours, the enemy has lost up to 395 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, three pick-up trucks, and two D-30 howitzers.
◽️ An ammunition depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been destroyed near Udachnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU units close Vodyanoye and Pavlovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Malaya Tokmachka and Shcherbaki (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Up to 120 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, and one Msta-B howitzer have been neutralised in these areas during the day.
💥 In Kherson direction, up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, two pick-up trucks, one Grad MLRS, and one D-30 howitzer have been neutralised by fire.
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 103 AFU artillery units, manpower and hardware in 149 areas during the day.
◽️ Command and observation posts of the 81st Airmobile Brigade and 108th Territorial Defence Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been eliminated close to Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic) and Gorkoye (Zaporozhye region).
💥Russian air defence facilities have shot down one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Novoandreyevka (Zaporozhye region). In addition, 16 HIMARS and Uragan projectiles have been intercepted during the day.
◽️ Moreover, 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Ploshchanka, Kuzemovka, Makeyevka (Lugansk People's Republic), Tonenkoye and Georgiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
📊 In total, 430 airplanes and 235 helicopters, 4,407 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 air defence missile systems, 9,352 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,105 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 4,954 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,587 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: rumod report | Jun 1 2023 15:46 utc | 3
So continued escalation?
Or a rapid collapse of the Kiev regime.
The manpower to maintain another meat grinder must be exhausted.
What to make of Demented peace talk conditions.
What's left?
Posted by: jpc | Jun 1 2023 15:47 utc | 4
A while ago I wrote about the F-16s and why it makes little sense for Ukraine to use them as they won't change things.
The Pentagon think tank RAND has now published similar assertions:
What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine
In a few ways, it's worse than current Ukrainian fighters. For example, F-16s were never intended to be operated from improvised airfields where they run a much greater risk of ingesting debris into their engines. Anyone who remembers Sully Sullenberger has some idea of how that can turn out.Another area where they are at a disadvantage to the latest Russian aircraft is air-to-air combat. Large Russian air superiority fighters such as the MiG-31 and Su-35 can see significantly farther with their powerful, modern radars. They also have R-37 missiles that have a much longer range than NATO-supplied AIM-120 AMRAAMs. In other words, Russian aircraft can potentially spot Ukrainian F-16s and shoot them down before the Ukrainian pilots see them coming. This is exactly what has been happening with Ukraine's current fleet of Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters, and the improved capabilities of the F-16 are not enough to tilt this disparity in Ukraine's favor.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32259
Gonzalo Lira, a prominent YouTuber and columnist, has gained recognition for his financial articles featured in renowned platforms such as Business Insider and ZeroHedge. Lira has notably emerged as a vocal critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. ...
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32100
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32101
"What Ukraine learned from ISIS" - Newsweek▪️ Newsweek writes that the methods of the Kyiv regime are similar to the methods of Islamic terrorists, and their main task is to extract more money and weapons from the West.
...
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 15:49 utc | 6
So continued escalation?
Or a rapid collapse of the Kiev regime.
The manpower to maintain another meat grinder must be exhausted.
What to make of Demented peace talk conditions.
What's left?
Posted by: jpc | Jun 1 2023 15:47 utc | 4
The mood in the Kremlin is clearly hardening. See Medvedev's latest remarks:
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1664291022858342400
A shift to more decisive actions may be coming (or already happening if the rumors about the recent hits on the GUR and NATO staff are true)
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 15:52 utc | 7
@Melaleuca 1
Why not? I've advocated Toyota use ISIS as a marketing device.
"Toyota pickups: so good, they're the vehicle of choice of headchopping psychopaths everywhere!"
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 1 2023 15:53 utc | 8
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
Is there much more left to sustain it?
I can't see how tbh!
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
Indefinitely I would think.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc |
Posted by: jpc | Jun 1 2023 15:53 utc | 9
Governor of the Belgorod region:for the previous day:
⠀
📍5 arrivals were recorded in the Belgorod region. All fell on the village of Shchetinovka, which was hit with artillery. There were no casualties or damage.
⠀
📍In the Borisov region, a mortar fired at the outskirts of the village of Bogun-Gorodok. The projectile hit a section of the road. As a result, a resident of the village of Veselaia Lopan suffered. He has a wound to his right forearm, doctors are providing all the necessary assistance. The victim's car was damaged.
⠀
📍11 arrivals were recorded in the Valuisky city district. 5 and 6 mortar shells were fired at the villages of Novopetrovka and Karabanovo, respectively. There were no casualties. Various destructions were received by 6 households, the car is damaged. In the village of Novopetrovka, a power line was damaged.
⠀
📍In the Volokonovsky district, the Stary farmstead was fired from a mortar and cannon artillery. A total of 17 shells were fired. There were no casualties or damage.
⠀
📍57 arrivals were recorded in Grayvoron city district. 47 mortar shells fired at the village of Kozinka, 7 mortar shells were fired at the checkpoint, 3 at the Gorky t/a. There were no casualties. In the village of Kozinka, various damages were recorded in 5 private households, 1 office building, 1 store. There was a power line break on 4 streets.
⠀
📍In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Grafovka fell under artillery fire - 3 arrivals were recorded. There were no casualties. Power lines and gas supply lines were damaged, by now everything has been restored. 3 households and a store were affected: damage to the roof and windows, destruction of the slate fence. 5 artillery shells were fired at the village of Repyahovka. As a result, no one was hurt. One private household, a building of an agricultural enterprise, 1 car and 1 tractor were damaged.
⠀
📍In the Shebekinsky urban district, several settlements fell under numerous artillery shelling. Only for the past day there are 12 victims. Everyone gets the necessary medical care. There are no dead. Previously, 4 apartment buildings, 18 private households, 3 administrative buildings, an agricultural enterprise building, an industrial enterprise, a hostel building and a kindergarten, 5 cars and 1 bus received various damage. Detailed information on the destruction is specified.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 15:54 utc | 10
It's easy to get the feeling that Zelensky has now been bypassed in military matters (perhaps permanently) - Syrsky reported that offensive operation around Artemovsk has been halted due to depletion. Never before has this been said out aloud.
Artemovsk vicinity is, still by far, the most significant area of SMO when it comes to measuring by troop and unit concentration, most UAF units here are too weak. Halting offensive is one thing, but will they still try to maintain earlier positions and keep getting blasted away? I don't think a Nato conference in Vilnius does anything to give any sort of edge to AFU.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 15:56 utc | 11
@Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
Well, it's looking like NATO may be preparing to officially enter this conflict, in which case the war between the West and Eurasia will not last very long, since Russia will just annihilate most of Europe with nuclear weapons. The USA at that point will just cut their losses and attempt to maintain their regional power in the Americas, while maybe trying to maintain some presence in east/south-east Asia (from which they would either immediately or eventually be pushed out by China).
Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 15:56 utc | 12
My answer to Exile’s questions at 15:43 utc:
1. Until Russia accomplishes its goal.
2. Until NATO throws in the towel.
It would be foolish to impose a time frame on either.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2023 15:57 utc | 13
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 15:52 utc | 7
There’s a certainly a robust fightback going on against these border incursions.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 16:03 utc | 15
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
Until Russia is satisfied its security concerns have been met.
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
A couple of possible answers:
- until a sufficient number of Global Majority nations feel confident enough to abandon the US$ as a basis for international trade
or
- until the US fractures or collapses internally as a result of socio-political and cultural stresses and strains boiling over
Either one of these could precipitate the other.
As @malenkov | Jun 1 2023 15:57 utc | 13 notes, impossible to put a time frame on any of this.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 1 2023 16:07 utc | 16
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 1 2023 15:53 utc | 8
“The all new Toyota ISIS: Fighting for You!”
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 16:09 utc | 17
@ b | Jun 1 2023 15:48 utc | 5
just to reinforce that.. here is part of the quote b emphasized in the post @ 5..
"In other words, Russian aircraft can potentially spot Ukrainian F-16s and shoot them down before the Ukrainian pilots see them coming. This is exactly what has been happening with Ukraine's current fleet of Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters, and the improved capabilities of the F-16 are not enough to tilt this disparity in Ukraine's favor."
either this is propaganda from RAND, or this is not a game changer...
Posted by: james | Jun 1 2023 16:11 utc | 18
FVK @ 12 How will NATO 'enter this conflict' if the US stays out?
Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2023 16:15 utc | 19
@2 Exile,
1. ukrastan, and ukranzi-natostani will keep the localized pursuit of russo-cleansing
until the 2. natostan v row conflict explodes
2. is the source of natostan refusing Russia’s benevolence in dec 2022
the smo is evidence RF sees their pre-eminence fighting natostan
Posted by: paddy | Jun 1 2023 16:15 utc | 20
So the “strategy” of the UAF seems to be morphing from a military perspective, into a terror/suicide ISIS style tactics without a strategy.
The only goals I can see being met by sacrificing young men in suicide attacks into Russian territory are those of the CIA and MI6. Destabilize Russia using weaponized Ukrainian meat bombs, similar to the ISIS meat bombs they sent to destabilize Syria.
I continue to wonder when Russian asymmetrical response happens. There is a porous southern border in the US just waiting to be exploited. Plenty of jihadis for hire can be used for deniability.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 1 2023 16:17 utc | 21
Ordinary Americans in no way should expect to be perpetually held harmless from the horrible, violent actions of the US govt. This has been going on for a very long time.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 1 2023 16:17 utc | 22
Ukraine’s only objective in this war as of this point is to consistently string along enough small events to serve as temporary bumps of ostensible activity and provide a psychological/morale boost. It’s cheap tricks, the practiced hand waving of a street magician trying to distract you. They have no real military ability so they subsist on a diet of any sort of bump they can get every few days to string along this conjured illusion that they’re actually still in the war, still scraping and fighting back.
And these bumps are not just of the falseflag/psyop variety like the strikes on Moscow, but they include the chest puffing false image of strength and bluffs that Ukrainian officials continue feigning with their constant talk of a never materializing offensive.
Posted by: WoButtZdDeed | Jun 1 2023 16:23 utc | 23
Also needs to be pointed out that the sacrificial NATO meat bombs are Ukrainian soldiers, presumably trained in expensive western military bases.
An honest accounting of the resources and time spent would show that losing 30 meat bombs in exchange for wounding 9 civilians and getting a press conference victory is called LOSING!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 1 2023 16:25 utc | 24
@Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2023 16:15 utc | 19
If most of Europe is roasted, there will not be a NATO anymore. The USA would have nothing to gain by risking direct nuclear exchange in that scenario. Are they going to attack Russia to defend the honor of an irradiated wasteland? No, they will just say to whatever surviving Europeans remain, "oh well, sucks to be you," and that would be that.
Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 16:26 utc | 25
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
**********************************************************************
Could we re-phrase it?
As in:
How long will The Everlasting War last ?
or even:
How long will The Big Money Maker (BMM) for all sides last ?
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 1 2023 16:27 utc | 26
@5
b,
rand does not go into the logistics tail for f-16.
eu donations are old airframe, and the owners do not have spare parts, spare engines to sustain even low intensity operations, before air combat attrition.
there are suggestions the rf fighters can also ‘fix’ stealth at ranges the stealth cannot see, note once the stealthy turn on sensors they are picked up….
Posted by: paddy | Jun 1 2023 16:28 utc | 27
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
don't change a winning team
(not)
Synonym of if it ain't broke, don't fix it
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 1 2023 16:31 utc | 28
Ordinary Americans in no way should expect to be perpetually held harmless from the horrible, violent actions of the US govt.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 1 2023 16:17 utc | 22
Ordinary Americans make up the US government.
Ordinary Americans are the soldiers who've eagerly killed millions of people around the world for no reason.
Ordinary Americans run the biolabs.
Ordinary Americans work at pfizer.
Ordinary Americans work at every NGO, military base, torture camp, organ trafficking operation, child trafficking operation and spook agency both in America and everywhere in the world.
Ordinary Americans burn the food storages, derail trains, poison water supplies, make up Antifa, run the media, etc, etc.
None of this would be possible in any other country in the world.
Posted by: Mike | Jun 1 2023 16:32 utc | 29
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
The two are equivalent. The war ends when the west runs out of “meat bombs” to throw into the fire in anti-Russian and anti-China ops.
Unfortunately there seem to be lots of stupid places willing to sign up their citizens to be meat bombs. Moldovans look to be on deck. Poles, Germans, and maybe Americans are next.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 1 2023 16:33 utc | 30
FVK @ 25 Before Europe gets to the roasting stage NATO will have to officially enter the conflict. They won't do it without US green light because US is part of NATO. Of course everybody knows US/NATO is already involved unofficially.
Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2023 16:33 utc | 31
Paddy 27
"eu donations are old airframe, and the owners do not have spare parts, spare engines to sustain even low intensity operations, before air combat attrition."
Ukie airforce won't need F-16 spare parts, or even a landing strip. These will be essentially one mission aircraft.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 1 2023 16:37 utc | 32
@ b | Jun 1 2023 15:48 utc | 5 with the RAND F-16 update
Thanks.
So what is the next move by empire in Ukraine?
As I read the MOD reports Russia is playing whack-a-mole with Ukraine attempts to get some sort of offensive going.
And then there is all the rest of the world turning....such interesting time to be alive
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 1 2023 16:41 utc | 33
[8]
"Toyota pickups: so good, they're the vehicle of choice of headchopping psychopaths everywhere!"
Yet it was the US of A that supplied them.........
https://theworld.org/stories/2015-12-15/how-texas-plumbers-truck-wound-isis-hands
https://emiratesleaks.com/emirates-leaks-monitors-uae-secretly-supported-isis-syria-iraq/?lang=en
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 1 2023 16:56 utc | 34
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 1 2023 16:52 utc | 34
Are Swedish weapons donated to Ukraine?
Are donated Swedish weapons captured by Russia?
Can Russia horizontally escalate the conflict by selling captured Swedish weapons to cartels in Mexico?
Posted by: grabbag | Jun 1 2023 16:57 utc | 35
@Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2023 16:33 utc | 30
NATO is having meetings right now on accession of the Ukraine to NATO and signing war plans for NATO against Russia. They are also massing near the conflict as "military exercises." It is all looking like the beginning of open entrance of NATO into the conflict. It could just be a bluff, but that is how things look at the moment. If they were to enter, I imagine it would be to send "peacekeepers" into western Ukraine and attempt to establish air dominance and establish "no conflict" zone there. This would be the prelude to building airfields in west Ukraine from which NATO pilots could fly sorties to the east. This is obviously an unacceptable situation for Russia, and would invite an extreme response. Best bet at that point for Russia would be to just glass Poland. If Europe still has not found its sanity and refuses to back down, then the next step of escalation would be to end the rest of western Europe.
Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 16:58 utc | 36
Best bet at that point for Russia would be to just glass Poland. If Europe still has not found its sanity and refuses to back down, then the next step of escalation would be to end the rest of western Europe.Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 16:58 utc | 37
If that is the first step, it is Poland and Romania together. Both have Aegis Ashore sites, plus lots of other dangerous NATO infrastructure.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:00 utc | 37
FVK @ 37 I'm sure NATO has lots of creative ideas. I just don't see a formal escalation without US approval. The real discussion is in Washington.
Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2023 17:04 utc | 38
NATO PLANES over BOSNIA again
Air Defender 23- watch closely what is happening in the former Yugoslavia:
"Just yesterday, a pair of U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers flew low over Sarajevo and several other Bosnian cities as a demonstration of “a rock-solid commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity”
From the Serbian side, pressure has been mounting for some time to undo the recent mayoral elections in northern Kosovo. Speaking in April, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic said: "our people in Kosovo have shown in which country they want to live," AP reports. Vucic also said that the vote boycott by the Kosovo Serbs represented “a peaceful political uprising” against their ethnic Albanian “occupiers,” the paper indicates.
Moreover, there has been growing military pressure from Serbia to intervene in Kosovo as of late. Back in January, NATO's mission in Kosovo denied a request by Serbia to send 1,000 police and army personnel to Kosovo, following unrest between Serbs and Kosovo authorities. Serbian forces have also maintained pressure near the administrative border of Kosovo as the recent unrest has unfolded over the past days.
These wider tensions are also being felt in other parts of the Balkans, exacerbating long-harbored ethnic divisions. The Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik recently indicated his desire to declare the autonomous Serb Republic independent from the rest of Bosnia, with hopes of uniting with Serbia. Dodik's pro-nationalist, pro-Russian approach has raised fears that Bosnia may split once again along ethnic lines, a generation after the U.S.-sponsored Dayton Peace Accords ended nearly four years of war in the country in 1995. How far these developments may have been coordinated in conjunction with the Kremlin remains unclear.
Just yesterday, a pair of U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers flew low over Sarajevo and several other Bosnian cities as a demonstration of “a rock-solid commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Bosnia, Michael Murphy, the U.S. ambassador to Bosnia, said according to Air Force Times.
Only time will tell when the unrest in the Balkans will dissipate, as additional NATO troops aim to stabilize ethnic divisions within Kosovo."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/why-nato-just-sent-hundreds-of-troops-to-kosovo
To divert the attention from Ukraina- what could be better than punish Serbia- for being Russias brothers
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 1 2023 17:09 utc | 39
Are Swedish weapons donated to Ukraine?
Are donated Swedish weapons captured by Russia?
Can Russia horizontally escalate the conflict by selling captured Swedish weapons to cartels in Mexico?
Posted by: grabbag | Jun 1 2023 16:57 utc | 36
We could modify your post a bit:
Are Swedish weapons donated to Ukraine?
Are donated Swedish weapons being sold by corrupt Ukrainian military officials to the cartels in Mexico?
Can Russia horizontally escalate the conflict by having deep-cover operatives embedded in the cartels in Mexico?
Regardless, there is clearly “leakage” or “shrinkage” of the Western weapon supplies being sent to Ukraine.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 1 2023 17:10 utc | 40
@Melaleuca 33:
The AT4 being a Swedish weapon doesn’t mean it wasn’t supplied by an agency of the RF. In fact, supplying Swedish arms obtained on the black market would offer the RF plausible deniability and also put a small pebble in the road of US-Swedish relations, which will require increased collaboration via NATO.
Posted by: Ciaran | Jun 1 2023 17:12 utc | 41
Beautiful:
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1664316360841744384
⚡️"If they want to live, they will leave that place," - Volodymyr Zelenskyi about the russian military contingent in Transnistria.
For the record -- I know this has been explained previously, but it needs to be repeated -- the PMR seceded from Moldova BEFORE Moldova seceded from the USSR, and nobody ever "invaded" the PMR, it was all an in situ local movement. Gorbachev actually even tried to suppress it and issued a specific decree declaring the secession null and void, and Putin tried hard to push them back into Moldova (the same way he later did with Donetsk and Lugansk) but was unsuccessful.
So that's half a million people who were born and raised there that these psychopaths plan on genociding. And if the Kremlin doesn't do anything to stop it, you can imagine the political consequences...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:18 utc | 42
@Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:00 utc | 39
Yes, Romania as well. I had held out hope that Romania would see the light and not go along with western plans, but unfortately that didn't happen.
Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 17:18 utc | 43
The AT4 being a Swedish weapon doesn’t mean it wasn’t supplied by an agency of the RF. In fact, supplying Swedish arms obtained on the black market would offer the RF plausible deniability and also put a small pebble in the road of US-Swedish relations, which will require increased collaboration via NATO.Posted by: Ciaran | Jun 1 2023 17:12 utc | 44
What is needed is Stingers from Ukraine in the hands of the right people waiting for the right moment around the DC area.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:20 utc | 44
The Russians seem to have seriously increased the production of drones, for the Ukrainians the situation will only get worse. To be honest, it is quite strange that a state with nuclear weapons and with such large resources neglected the development of the drone industry.
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 1 2023 17:32 utc | 45
Yes, Romania as well. I had held out hope that Romania would see the light and not go along with western plans, but unfortately that didn't happen.Posted by: FVK | Jun 1 2023 17:18 utc | 46
Romania sent an obscene number of soldiers to fight on the Eastern Front in WWII.
That hasn't been forgotten. On both sides. In fact, relationships were complicated all throughout the Cold War era even though Romania was in the Warsaw pact. It might even be why Ceausescu was the only Eastern Bloc leader to be killed when the orders came from Moscow to dismantle it all.
There are deep divisions here.
Poland, Czechia and Slovakia are Slavic, but Catholic, so they hate Russia because it is Orthodox while they see themselves as a higher form of human beings by virtue of being part of "Western Civilization". And the hate is double in Poland because Russia destroyed Poland's empire.
Romania is Orthodox, but it is not Slavic. Which isn't even true -- genetically it is Slavic, and it was controlled by Bulgarians for most of the Middle Ages, but due to a long and complex set of historical circumstances it ended up as a "Latin" country when it developed a separate national identity -- but that is how they see themselves.
So the only countries with real historical affinity for Russia are the South Slavs -- Serbs and Bulgarians. But Bulgarian elites have always wanted to be first Germans, and more recently Americans/"Europeans", regardless of what the majority of the population thinks, so Serbia has been the only somewhat reliable ally in all of Europe. Somewhat, because of course Tito decided to do his own thing during the Cold War, and that caused bigger problems than is commonly appreciated.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:36 utc | 46
The Russians seem to have seriously increased the production of drones, for the Ukrainians the situation will only get worse. To be honest, it is quite strange that a state with nuclear weapons and with such large resources neglected the development of the drone industry.Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 1 2023 17:32 utc | 49
You have your answer there. Notice what Russia invested in -- doomsday weaponry. Because the assumption was that nuclear deterrence will do its job, and there will be no need for major conventional operations.
But in the real world we are now at the point where Putin yesterday was openly lamenting how "nuclear deterrence is no longer having an effect"...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:38 utc | 47
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 1 2023 14:33 utc | 247
Not only is the Russian strategy to dominate the OODA loop, regarding the offensives, by forcing Ukraine to always play the subordinate in the act, react cycle, they are also forcing them to constantly have to realign their planning to compensate for territorial losses. Bakhmut, will be followed by Avdivka that will be preceded by Kupyansk, each time forcing the offensive’s planners to have to recalculate hundreds of factors and countless new variables, and resources, especially personnel, are committed and supplies expended. Offensives that are delayed usually fail, and Russia has taken this lesson to heart and fed it into its correlation engine that constantly fine-tunes the most economic, in both financial and material, way to fight the SMO. Everything they do is based on this principle of economy, and everything they have done, or will do, is based on the calculation, the most for the least.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 1 2023 17:40 utc | 48
Trollbag:
Mexican cartels are run by the CIA.
Think of Mexico as the training grounds for new spooks before they are sent further afield to set up death squads. As well, running guns, like trafficking in drugs and people, is a major revenue stream for the CIA. “The Company” wouldn’t appreciate someone else trying to muscle in on their business.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 1 2023 17:41 utc | 49
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:36 utc | 50
Thank you for clarification on the complicated belt og slavic countries. Best that i have ever seen. It ranks up there with the 1970 comic Yes Minister- clarification of the british newspapers.
Brilliant
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 1 2023 17:46 utc | 50
[email protected] get shot down, but not before they fire their payload. Many DPR front line reports talk of enemy planes and choppers.....so they are there.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 1 2023 17:54 utc | 51
Posted by: b | Jun 1 2023 15:48 utc | 5
A while ago I wrote about the F-16s and why it makes little sense for Ukraine to use them as they won't change things.
But it fits perfectly in clearing space for selling F35.
Posted by: Grey Cloud | Jun 1 2023 17:56 utc | 52
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:36 utc | 50
All nations of the former Yugoslavia are Southern Slavs - Bosniaks, Croats, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Serbs and Slovenians.
Posted by: JB | Jun 1 2023 18:03 utc | 53
So we have Maia Sandu allowing Ukronazi's to invade Moldovan territory.
Do you know what is the remedy for this problem, and pretty much every other problem? The destruction of Ukraine's army. Although by now it's plausible to assume that substantial portion of AFU is made out of Romanian and Polish army.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 18:05 utc | 54
Do you know what is the remedy for this problem ...
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 18:05 utc | 58
---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_the_chicken_to_scare_the_monkey
Posted by: too scents | Jun 1 2023 18:19 utc | 55
Why not? I've advocated Toyota use ISIS as a marketing device.
"Toyota pickups: so good, they're the vehicle of choice of headchopping psychopaths everywhere!"
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 1 2023 15:53 utc | 8
Toyota CIA model. ISIS was an American bastard Child.
How long will the war last? Let's start with interest on American National Debt at more than the $1 Trillion Military Budget this coming year.
So it is double digit inflation and/or a declining economy. And it is hard to fight a war when only Politicians want it.
Posted by: kupkee | Jun 1 2023 18:26 utc | 56
"...Bulgarian elites have always wanted to be first Germans, and more recently Americans/"Europeans", regardless of what the majority of the population thinks, so Serbia has been the only somewhat reliable ally in all of Europe. Somewhat, because of course Tito decided to do his own thing during the Cold War, and that caused bigger problems than is commonly appreciated." shadowbanned@50
james add 'On the Eve' to the Russian booklist.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 1 2023 18:29 utc | 57
@ sean the leprechaun | Jun 1 2023 17:54 utc | 55
thanks sean...
Posted by: james | Jun 1 2023 18:37 utc | 58
Am I the only one who thinks that when the US is doing it's war games in June over next to Russia, that would be a perfect time for China to do something militarily to secure Taiwan.
Posted by: Ceaclearly | Jun 1 2023 18:39 utc | 59
Thank you Barflies for your answers:
A year ago the Bar’s consensus was roughly a couple of years for The Ukrainian Civil War and until 2030 or so for the global war between Eurasia and NATO
Now it appears the consensus is many many years for both Wars lasting far into the future.
Tragic
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 18:41 utc | 60
Re: De-Dollarization
Indonesia and Iran ditch dollar in trade.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/05/24/704000/Iran-Indonesia-Spirit-Independence-Ditching-Dollar
Very small potatos, but the direction is clear
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 18:43 utc | 61
All nations of the former Yugoslavia are Southern Slavs - Bosniaks, Croats, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Serbs and Slovenians. Posted by: JB | Jun 1 2023 18:03 utc | 57
Yes, but they weren't independent for most the historical period we are talking about, when they were all in Yugoslavia and Belgrade was the center, and two of these -- the Bosniaks and the Macedonians don't/didn't even exist to begin with. Now there is a Macedonian nation, but there was no such thing a century ago.
Anyway, the Catholic-Orthodox divide is actually at its starkest with the case of Croats and Serbs -- in this case even the language is the same, and yet the hatred reached truly incredible levels.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 18:51 utc | 62
Swedish made anti tank weapons sent to Ukraine are showing up in the hands of Mexican drug cartels. Who would have thought?
https://southfront.org/mexican-tv-spots-cartel-wielding-anti-tank-rocket-launcher-in-border-town-near-texas/
Posted by: Beverly | Jun 1 2023 19:06 utc | 63
A year ago the Bar’s consensus was roughly a couple of years for The Ukrainian Civil War and until 2030 or so for the global war between Eurasia and NATONow it appears the consensus is many many years for both Wars lasting far into the future.
Tragic
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 18:41 utc | 64
Admittedly I was reluctant to commit to a timetable, but I don’t see anything that extends things beyond your dates. As far as the Ukrainian Civil War/SMO goes, both the US and Russia are due to have elections in 2024. I suspect there will be some urgency from the US side to try avoid an even more fractious and feverish electoral atmosphere, by trying to contrive something that can be sold as some kind of settlement or agreement.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 1 2023 19:11 utc | 64
There are reports that Ukrainian Forces have entered Shebekino, Russia and that heavy fighting is going on.
HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Jun 1 2023 19:14 utc | 65
CC:
Two waves of "Geraniums" are reported in Zaporozhye.
According to preliminary data, drones are going to the area of Orekhov, Stepnogorsk and Gulyai Pole.
Posted by: Geraniums | Jun 1 2023 19:22 utc | 66
There are reports that Ukrainian Forces have entered Shebekino, Russia and that heavy fighting is going on.
HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Jun 1 2023 19:14 utc | 69
You’re late on parade for thread derailment duty; already been dealt with: https://sputnikglobe.com/20230601/russia-foils-ukrainian-attack-on-belgorod-region-over-30-terrorists-killed---mod-1110836881.html
Russia Foils Ukrainian Attack on Belgorod Region, Over 30 Terrorists Killed - MoDAn apparent attempt by Ukrainian militants to reprise last month's raid on Russia's Belgorod Region has been foiled by the timely intervention of Russia's military and border security forces.
Early on June 1, units of the Russian armed forces and the border guard, as well as other elements of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB, the agency in charge of Russia's border security), have repelled three attempts by Ukrainian forces to invade Russia's territory near the town of Shebekino.
"This morning, the Russian armed forces .. thwarted a new attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist act against the civilian population of the city of Shebekino, Belgorod Region," the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement issued today.
According to the statement, Ukraine mustered two infantry companies supported by tanks for this attack.
"Thanks to brave actions of Russian servicemen, three attacks by Ukrainian terrorist groups were repelled," the ministry said, adding that combat aircraft belonging to the forces of Russia's Western Military District have conduct 11 strikes on the enemy targets.
"As a result of the active actions of the units covering the state border of the Western Military District and the FSB of Russia, the terrorist formations of the Kiev regime, having suffered significant losses, were driven back. Violations of the state border were not allowed," the ministry said.
During the fighting, Ukrainian forces lost "30 terrorists, four armored fighting vehicles, Grad MLRS combat vehicle, one pickup truck," according to the estimates provided by Moscow.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 1 2023 19:24 utc | 67
69.
You mean the terrorists armed with Western weapons and equipment who were killed on the Russian border on their way to attack civilians? Noone weeps for those scum.
It has come to this because, used and abused by their Maerican sponsors, Ukraine has no tactics left except terrorism.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 1 2023 19:39 utc | 68
Posted by: Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
1) How long will The Ukrainian Civil War last ?
it's not a civil war. It is the currently active theater in WW3 and it will last for as long as Russia decides it will or until Ukraine collapses into chaos and then it will move elsewhere. The West is pulling its own moves (Serbia, Moldova, Syria) to expand the theater of war and so exhaust Russian arms and manpower capabilities. This is why the US and Europe are sending old armaments while pressuring western arms manufacturers to expand production.
Russia is aware of this risk. It's use of PMC's instead of regular conscripts is an excellent example of how Russia is minimizing the risk that Russian voters will reject this war. Also, Russia has proven it is capable of industrial flexibility to ramp up arms production to the level they have without hurting other parts of the economy.
2) How long will the global war between Eurasia and NATO last ?
Russia's aims are also about attrition and not just on the battle field. The relationship between Western Europe and Russia is broken and even peace in Ukraine will not fix that. So this war will drag on for a generation unless either NATO collapses or Russia implodes. The weak link in the West is Germany and, to a lesser extent, Italy. Germany is already in recession and a prolonged period of outage in its petrochemical industries will be hugely painful. Italy needs Russian gas (I know they get more expensive gas from Libya) and it needs both German consumers and German capital to fund massive debt roll-over risk.
Posted by: vtObserver | Jun 1 2023 19:40 utc | 69
Posted by: Milites | Jun 1 2023 17:40 utc | 52
Ideally, yes.
I think that logistics / counter-logistics has been RF MoD’s strong suits all along but UA has had operational “success” with dispersed, mobile force - ISIS charges - getting ahead of the MoD’s response time and response granularity.
On straight OODA the record seemed mixed and unevenly distributed.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 19:41 utc | 70
Posted by: Beverly | Jun 1 2023 19:06 utc | 67
Could have come from any conflict region where they are/were supplied, including, Mexico, Central America, Ukraine or Afghanistan. It’s a one-shot disposable launcher so they are supplied and counted as individual rounds of ammunition, not like the RPG, or Carl Gustav. The weapon is nothing special and is 30+ years old, now evidence of an NLAW being used by cartels would be seismic, which is why any black market buyers will be very, very discrete. The YouTuber Lindybeige has an interesting three part series where he de-briefs his friend who went to fight for the Ukrainians. One of the early stories is the mysterious disappearance of a truck with their allotted Javelins, M-249’s, NVG’s etc. an officer commandeered the truck and that was the last they saw of it, someone, somewhere has made a lot of money, courtesy of the Western taxpayers.
Posted by: b | Jun 1 2023 15:48 utc | 5
This, together with the recent Rand study saying the SMO is a training ground for the Russians, giving them an unparalleled experience in peer to peer warfare, suggests the anti-Nuland forces are getting bolder in their leaks. The pressure isn’t just on the Ukrainians to launch an offensive, the Neo-Cons can sense the sharks circling, waiting for irrefutable evidence of their failure. To say they are hated and despised in professional circles is an understatement, but they are feared as well, due to their clout in Washington; however, that source of support is beginning to falter, as the realities of 2024 hove into view and the Ukrainian corruption, that is partly at the heart of this debacle, is being slowly exposed (Wray’s recent admission of the existence of the FD-1023, for example).
Posted by: Milites | Jun 1 2023 19:41 utc | 71
Re US Javelin's showing up among Mexico's cartels. Since posting certain links are not allowed at MOA, the source is Milenio TV. Their youtube channel has a news report with photos. From their youtube channel search option, type "Sicario pasea con lanzacohetes en Tamaulipas" The report is dated May 30.
Posted by: Willow | Jun 1 2023 19:44 utc | 72
Air Defender 23
Fake alert about plane hijacking
Norwegian and Danish news are full of information about an alleged hijacking. Danish planes escorted a passengerplane from Denmark to Norway.
People are not informed about the Defender exercice. They are creating fear!!! Tomorrow they will probably say that the voice that made the threat had a russian accent.
This will go on for three weeks, with a lot of creative air-related stuff. They, the Nato is also exercising the media, police, hospitals in emergencies mode und so veiter. With-out informing that this is just an exercice.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 1 2023 19:48 utc | 73
The Ukraine is being fucked anyway, but I suppose they like it that way. Such masochism is likely why they were attracted to western culture in the first place.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 1 2023 19:50 utc | 74
Paul from Norway no. 79
So when the "real" thing happens, no-one will take any notice.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 1 2023 19:55 utc | 75
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 18:51 utc | 66
"Macedonians" = Bulgarians.
Posted by: Flavius | Jun 1 2023 19:56 utc | 76
Meanwhile, back in Clown World, the dementia patient nominally in charge of the worlds greatest military fell on stage again.
It’s on Politico.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 1 2023 19:56 utc | 77
NZ govt-bought media reporting on signs that Wagner has plans for the Chatham Islands (lol)
Posted by: Dave | Jun 1 2023 19:59 utc | 78
Dima says that Ukrainian counteroffensive is going to start in Transdnistria.
Posted by: srbin@ | Jun 1 2023 20:01 utc | 79
But in the real world we are now at the point where Putin yesterday was openly lamenting how "nuclear deterrence is no longer having an effect"...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 17:38 utc | 51
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Realize that anyone and everyone in that world will never want to push that button.
Them is the fundamentals of that business, all the tough talk notwithstanding. There is a reason why the Ukies no longer have nuclear weapons nearby. Parking them in the neighborhood is not the same is giving hem access to the button.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 1 2023 20:07 utc | 80
Meanwhile pedo Joe just keeps giving us entertainment
Posted by: Scot1and | Jun 1 2023 20:11 utc | 81
Posted by: Scot1and | Jun 1 2023 20:11 utc | 87
somebody keep that man out of the public eye.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 1 2023 20:23 utc | 82
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 19:41 utc | 75
With Russian ISR capabilities still lagging behind the West yes, I agree, it’s why the Western MLRS and ER SPG’s systems have been hard to locate (given the massive resources expended just for this purpose alone would tax most nations ISR capability to its full extent). What I was really referring to was the strategic OODA loop, where Ukraine is constantly now having to react to Russian intervention, be it attrition of war materials or shaping of the battle space. The Russians are running an efficient, in every way, operation and are exploiting the pressure Ukraine has placed herself in to ‘do something’. My guess is that, if the Ukrainians every launch an offensive, the Russians will let it do most of their work for them, before committing the minimum number of troops in the most efficient manner to achieve their goals. I do chuckle when people talk about the Russians massive expenditure of shells, in fact it’s the exact opposite, following strict guidelines for the most efficient use of the available platforms and their respective capabilities. The disparity in perception arising from the West’s gradual gravitation to artillery becoming a precision platform, whereas the Russians have retained its original role of demoraliser, suppressant, neutraliser and destroyer, a doctrinal divergence driven by capabilities, and limitations that, to an extent, exist today.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 1 2023 20:33 utc | 83
From CyberspecNews Telegram
They write that after the blow to the building of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, a new star appeared on the board of honor for the dead CIA employees, the 140th in a row (for the entire existence of the CIA - at the beginning of May there were 139).
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32122
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 1 2023 20:35 utc | 84
Ukraine has just been thrown under the bus by the Nato Foreign Minister meeting in Oslo.
Blinken just said in a Norwegian pressconferance that Crimea was annexted in 2014 so we can not count that in. We support UA on the rest of the country: It's now up too Ukraina to find a solution.
Sad, sad, sad, all this destruction for nothing.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 1 2023 20:36 utc | 85
Because it seems to me we need a repository/archive for the true facts and important facts about this Ukraine thing in the hopes of being able to influence the sheeple into changing their minds about supporting by showing the truth to them - and there does not seem to be anything - I have just put up a site called ukrainehonesty.com and I hope some will find it useful.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 1 2023 20:36 utc | 91
It pays to keep in mind original purpose. There is only one function for Ukraine - weaken Russia. No NATO, no EU, no free money. All smoke and mirrors.
We have recently heard that IMF is tightening its grip on the Ukrainian finances and the sh#t will inevitably drain down to the inhabitants of that country. There are now seizures of accounts which can't afford loan payments, taxes are collected even on donations to Ukrainian army. And lot of other fun stuff.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 20:46 utc | 87
Col Doug Macgregor on Judge Napolitano on escalation, Prigozin's call for new mobilization, his relation to Putin and the significance of the recent strike of the Command Centre in Kiev (c. 6 minutes).
https://youtu.be/tN46r30ZwaM?t=1369
Posted by: @vec | Jun 1 2023 20:47 utc | 88
Opps ... Not exactly reassuring considering he has a nuclear suitcase ...
US President Joe Biden, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and master of the 'nuclear button', attended the Air Force Academy graduation and... flew away.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/48660
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 1 2023 20:47 utc | 89
Exile | Jun 1 2023 15:43 utc | 2
We can be reasonably assured those who installed biological research laboratories in Ukraine, Georgia, etc. had an inkling that a conventional war with a peer rival was no slam dunk. That Ukraine lab experiments are still live albeit partly relocated to Baltic states is perhaps an indication of ongoing work. The research that Russia’s SMO uncovered on eurasian migratory birds and avian flu claims can be a possible indicator this chapter is far from closed.
Perhaps this research area issue should be looked at in reference to the question: Why is the new US Lebanese Embassy compound so big?
Link to geopolitika lab research article
Link to bird flu research article
I also feel de-escalation remains a remote possibility, and on current trajectory, if as west hopes Russia depletes hardware to a measurable vulnerability, this more or less guarantees Chinese divisions will be partnered in as any supply risk to power grid is not tolerable to China’s 2030 goals signaling commencement of the real global dominance conflict. I don't see this as necessary, we're yet to see the full array of Russian weapons technology and I suspect some things we've no idea of true capability yet.
As Putin and Sergey Lavrov have repeatedly stated “we haven’t even started yet”.
Whether my suspicions on (N)BC warfare are founded or not, US is placing procurement orders to MIC for Ukraine air defence systems that will be one year+ before delivery.
@ West of England Andy | Jun 1 2023 19:11 utc | 68
I don’t see the election cycle as any marker anymore. It was Biden who called for NATO to bomb Serbia in Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he’s pot committed. The same forces that denied the Military CinC (POTUS) Trump a direct instruction to withdraw troops from Syria would not let a little thing like an election get in the way of their ambitions.
That said, a well meaning Independent in the WH could be quite useful to the MIC (as a stall tactic) and it’s shareholders/sponsors – as was observed with Trump an ostracized political outsider is impudent to the forces and seismic movements of the deeper state...so becomes a useful coat-hanger. It won’t be Trump but could be a sacrificial enthusiastic out of their depth female with few real political allies?
Lets see...
Posted by: Mercury | Jun 1 2023 20:51 utc | 90
Ahead of the NATO summit, amidst concerns that unanimous agreement to grant Ukraine NATO membership is not achievable, there has been talk of instead mandating an “Israel” style security partnership. This had come up before, over a year ago, from the Ukraine government.
https://www.jta.org/2022/04/06/global/zelensky-ukraine-will-look-more-like-big-israel-than-europe-in-the-wake-of-russias-war
What was striking about the previous comments (April 2022) was Zelensky’s passive approval for a permanently tense and militarized Ukraine: “We will not be surprised if we have representatives of the armed forces or the national guard in cinemas, supermarkets, and people with weapons. I am confident that the question of security will be issue number one for the next ten years. I am sure of it.”
And though he insisted Ukraine would remain a “democracy”, his further musings on the future anticipated major structural changes: “Ukraine will definitely not be what we wanted it to be from the beginning. It is impossible,” Zelensky said. “Absolutely liberal, European – it will not be like that. It will definitely come from the strength of every house, every building, every person.”
Posted by: jayc | Jun 1 2023 21:06 utc | 91
anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 16:09 utc | 17
“The all new Toyota ISIS: Fighting for You!”
I don't want to use LOL but I did !!
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 1 2023 21:27 utc | 92
NATO knows the wind patterns will also poison Europe if they conduct nuclear or biological warfare in Ukraine. NATO can't appear to lose so they won't hesitate to throw their partners under the bus to "defeat Russia"
Posted by: Willow | Jun 1 2023 21:35 utc | 93
WaPo opining now that because Russia’s “red lines” weren’t stark enough and enforced with violence the Biden regime feels like it must escalate. Those who’ve yelled about red lines and retaliation all along will find comfort in being proven “correct”.
But in reality it’s not so simple and coldly describes the irrationality of western leadership. If the other side doesn’t immediately punch me back as hard as he can, then the only thing I can do is continue taunting him. And if Russia had enforced those “red lines” with violence would the US reaction be to back down or escalate further? There are rungs on the escalation ladder you can’t easily climb back down from. So either the US leadership is truly crazy or it craves a big war.
Of course it isn’t prepared for a big war. A significant problem and why the NATO exercises are both a realistic nothing and a huge danger. More than that though, it suggests that Russia is all up in Biden’s OODA loop in the grand sense. Yes the US is actively escalating but doing so in reaction (to the lack of immediate reaction).
So a question, is Russia now baiting the US and should it? Actually sending US troops into Ukraine or even unofficial NATO troops could break the west. Unless the west is insanely successful. That seems unlikely, nor does anyone in nato really have the ability to tip the scales decisively.
Posted by: Lex | Jun 1 2023 21:37 utc | 94
Willow | Jun 1 2023 21:35 utc | 101
Hence multiple Slavic biome gene marker research?
I'd like to think you're right and a tiny vestige of sanity prevails...yet the signs so far however...
Posted by: Mercury | Jun 1 2023 21:53 utc | 95
2 PATRIOT SYSTEMS, 29 STORM SHADOW MISSILES, HEADQUARTERS OF MILITARY INTELLIGENCE IN KIEV: RUSSIA ASSESSED UKRAINIAN LOSSES
The Russian military continues its effective massive precision strikes on the military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). In the last days of May, Moscow officials revealed the interim results of the ongoing military operations and explained the true reason behind the recent Kiev’s attempts to launch attacks on the Russian territory which have no military goals but aimed at hiding Ukrainian losses from the public.
Commenting on today’s attack by Ukrainian UAVs in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed that two days ago Russian forces struck at the headquarters of the military intelligence of Ukraine (GUR). In response, Kiev targeted Russian civilians in Moscow.
“In response, as you know, the Kiev regime has chosen a different path. The path of attempts to intimidate Russia, intimidate Russian citizens and attacks on residential buildings,” the president said.
This is a clear sign of terrorist activity, he added. According to Putin, the recent drone attacks are “attempts to provoke” a response from Moscow, Kiev provokes it “to tit-for-tat response.”
The strike on the headquarters of the GUR are confirmed by the footage from Kiev. Traffic was blocked on the Havana Bridge which links Rybalsky Island, where the intelligence headquarters is located, with Podol. The day before, the Russian strike was reported in the area but Ukrainian officials did not confirm it.
Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu held the conference with the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. He assumed the results of the military operation in Ukraine in MAY, 2023. The most important claims included:
- The Russian military hit another Patriot air defense system in Kiev;
- Over the past month, the AFU lost over 16 thousand servicemen, 16 aircraft, five helicopters, 466 UAVs and more than 400 tanks;
- Russian troops intercepted 29 Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles in a month;
- In addition, 196 HIMARS rockets, 16 HARM missiles were intercepted;
- “Western curators” demand from Kiev to launch a counteroffensive, despite the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are tracking the ways of supply of Western weapons to Ukraine and are striking at them;
- Large Western arms depots in Khmelnitsky, Ternopol, and Mykolaiv were destroyed in recent days.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 1 2023 22:01 utc | 96
vec | Jun 1 2023 20:47 utc | 94
An important video, thanks vec. This one makes me even more pessimistic than I already am - even though, at other times, Col. Mc Gregor used to have a reassuring effect on me. But it is incredible how deep this Biden & Nuland team has involved us in this sh*t - Russia may soon be mobilizing up to 2 million soldiers.
You may point to Biden's dementia all you like, but he is still the one whose will is being executed, and who is the driving force behind all this. Or should we assume that it is Obama, Clinton and other bystanders from the Council of Foreign Relations, who are the primary instigators, and Biden just happens to be in agreement with them?
https://youtu.be/tN46r30ZwaM?t=1369 (6 minutes)
Posted by: grunzt | Jun 1 2023 22:01 utc | 97
@ Exile #2 -
Moscow's peacemaking forces were invited in several years ago. They only finally obliged in February of 2022.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 1 2023 22:05 utc | 98
Mercury | Jun 1 2023 21:53 utc | 103
The Slavs are one of the most genetically mixed populations on the planet so the chances of a specifically Slavic biomarker are close to nil.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Jun 1 2023 22:06 utc | 99
Ghost of Zanon | Jun 1 2023 16:17 utc | 21
I am beginning to think the new Ukrainian plan is to invade Russia, take a few villages hostage and try to trade them for Crimea, or something close. I thought I saw a Zelenski quote about taking Crimea “by other means”.
That’s a terrible idea and one that will get them murdered with extra extreme predjudice, but to the Ukes, they don’t have a lot to lose, except even more cannon fodder, which the leaders give an F about. After some of the sick Uke performances, I wouldn’t doubt a hostage taking spree.
Posted by: Fudup | Jun 1 2023 22:15 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Twitter reporting the “Ukraine javelin in Mexico” is actually a “AT4” (found on twitter and posted by me last thread, and I see it’s now getting lots of retweets)
Wikipedia: “The AT4 is a Swedish 84 mm unguided, man-portable, disposable, shoulder-fired recoilless anti-tank weapon manufactured by Saab Bofors Dynamics.
The AT4 is not a rocket launcher strictly speaking, because the explosive warhead is not propelled by a rocket motor.
Rather, it is a smooth-bore recoilless gun.
Saab has had considerable sales success with the AT4, making it one of the most common light anti-tank weapons in the world.
The M136 AT4 is a variant used by the United States Army. “
>… War toy nerds, have at it……
Question. Should the manufacturer seek endorsement from Mexican drug cartels as their weapon of choice?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 1 2023 15:42 utc | 1