Prigozhin's Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won
The Prigozhin's insurrection farce is over. I had predicted that it would not take long to end:
In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.
About eight hours after I published the above Prigozhin had given up and left the scene.
Prigozhin had launched his hopeless mutiny after the Defense Ministry had demanded that all his men sign contacts with the Russian army. That would have taken away the autonomy of his Wagner outlet and with it a large chunk of his profits. The run of his troops towards Moscow was a desperate attempt to get Putin's attention and to make him reverse the ministry's plans.
To justify his move Prigozhin had claimed that Russian miliary forces had attacked a Wagner camp and killed a number of its troops. To prove that he published a video that shows some trash in the woods but no dead soldiers. It was an obvious fake.
Putin had already publicly agreed to the ministry's plans and he is not the man who reverses his decisions on a dime, or under pressure. After Putin's Saturday morning TV speech, during which he accused Prigozhin of treason without naming him, it was clear that there was no chance for the mutiny to have any success. Many of Russia's governors and high ranking military soon assured Putin publicly of their loyalty.
As far as is known none of Wagner's military commanders and only a few thousand of its 25,000 troops had joined Prigozhin in his lunatic run. No one in Russia changed sides or supported him. When the Wagner troops entered Rostov on the Don the people who talked with his soldiers were critical of their presence. When Wagner were leaving without further bloodshed the people applauded. To interpret that as support for Prigozhin, as some 'western' analysts did, is false. The people were just happy that the whole stunt was over.
Finally the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, likely on request from Putin, got Prigozhin on the phone, used some very strong words and negotiated a deal. If Prigozhin goes into exile in Belarus he will not be bothered any further. But the Russian prosecutors will not yet close the treason case against him. Should he again make a hassle he will likely end up in jail.
Prigozhin may be allowed to take some of his troops with him to Belarus. But the large majority will come under the command of the Russian military and will be transformed into some special unit. The French foreign legion may be an good example for such a force and its potential use.
In previous years Prigozhin's companies had made large profits by catering to the needs of the Russian military. The contracts they have will likely end and his personal fortune will take a big hit. The good days are over for him.
The Biden administration is claiming that the whole affair has weakened Putin:
QUESTION: But just staying on Vladimir Putin for a minute, do you believe that this is the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin?SECRETARY BLINKEN: I don’t want to speculate about that. This is, first of all, an internal matter for Russia. What we’ve seen is this, though. We’ve seen this aggression against Ukraine become a strategic failure across the board. Russia is weaker economically, militarily. Its standing around the world has plummeted. It’s managed to get Europeans off of Russian energy. It’s managed to unite and strengthen NATO with new members and a stronger Alliance. It’s managed to alienate from Russia and unite together Ukraine in ways that it’s never been before. This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia. But what’s so striking about it is it’s internal. The fact that you have, from within, someone directly questioning Putin’s authority, directly questioning the premises that – upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine, that in and of itself is something very powerful. It adds cracks. Where those go, when they get there, too soon to say. But it clearly raises new questions that Putin has to deal with.
Some well sponsored 'sources' agree with that position:
Meduza’s sources added that the rebellion weakens Putin’s position: “He was unable to get down to Prigozhin’s level, but he was nowhere to be found after yesterday’s national address. He’s the first in command, and takes control when necessary. He shouldn’t make Lukashenko the public face and allow Russia’s security officials [siloviki] to lead negotiations.”
As does the Washington Post:
On Saturday morning, in the face of Prigozhin’s advance, Putin warned of the “brutal” response to be meted out on what he described as a “rebellion” launched by “traitors.” By the evening, his chief spokesman announced that looming charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that Wagner fighters who did not participate in the mutiny would be offered contracts by the Russian Defense Ministry.The climb-down revealed a fragility and instability at the heart of Russian power.
There are also all kind of conspiracy theories. Will Schryer thinks the whole affair was a psychological operation to smoke out potential traitors. Agit Papadakis claims that this was part of some internal conflict:
With the Putin-Prigo deal, the siloviki have gotten rid of three birds with one stone: Prigo is out forever, exiled to Belarus with Lukashenko as his no-nonsense parole officer, the criminal element in Wagner near and dear to Prigo will be shipped off to Africa, and Putin is disgraced forever, having lost the respect of both the Kremlin and the Russian people. He will now be a powerless figurehead like his brain-dead enemy Biden, taking orders instead of giving them.
I disagree with those opinions as I see no sign that Putin came away from it as anything but the winner.
I am joint in that by Larry Johnson who writes:
The West wants to believe that Putin is weak and unpopular — I would note that not a single respected critic of Putin endorsed Prigozhin’s mutiny and that all political leaders across the breadth of Russia lined up behind Putin when the rest of the world was celebrating (prematurely) the demise of the Russian leader.
Watching Russian talk shows, Gilbert Doctorow has a similar take:
Without any assistance from me, consumers of mainstream Western media know very well the official interpretation that, as always, is being handed down from Washington and is re-posted by our journalists as their own original reporting: how the Prigozhin affair demonstrates the fragility of dictatorships, how it shows the real weakness of the Putin regime, and so forth, and so on.I will offer here a glimpse into what is now being said in Russian public space. I say ‘a glimpse,’ because the diversity of views inside Russia is almost as vast as the country itself and only our ignorant and bigoted opinion formers in the West miss that point.
...
The third panelist on the Solovyov show whom I will cite very briefly was Alexander Babakov, deputy chair of the State Duma and a parliamentarian from the United Russia party. His point was that the armed mutiny failed because it was rejected by the regular Army, by the Russian government at all levels and by the people as a whole. In this way, Russia demonstrated to the world its unity in time of war, its readiness to stand up to the Collective West. The lesson for the West was precisely the strength of the country and of its Commander in Chief.Is anyone listening in Washington?
The former Indian ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar agrees:
Blinken has piled up a consistent record for being horribly wrong on his assessments on Russia — starting from the deathly blow the ‘sanctions from hell’ were expected to give to the Russian economy; Putin’s hold on power; Russia’s catastrophic defeat in Ukraine; Russian military’s deficiencies; Kiev’s inexorable military victory, and so on.In this case, he has reason to feel embittered particularly because of the spectacular unity of the Russian state, political elite, media, regional and federal bureaucracy, and the military and security establishment in rallying behind Putin. Arguably, Putin’s political stature is now unchallengeable and unassailable in Russia and the Americans have to live with that reality long after Joe Biden’s departure from the scene.
Today Prigozhin again tried to justify his 'march for justice' as he calls it and again repeats the evidence free claim of the attack on his group. He also claims that his operation demonstrated the problems in the Russian military and the quality of Wagner.
But in fact there was at no moment any danger for Russia. The Russian airforce could have destroyed the Wagner convoys on their way to Moscow at a few minutes notice. His troops in Rostov-on-Don were surrounded by the Chechen troops of Ramzan Kadyrov who had rushed to the city and were prepared to fight Wagner down.
I don't think that there is a chance that Prigozhin will ever have a come back. He is finished and he has only himself to blame for it.
Posted by b on June 26, 2023 at 15:46 UTC | Permalink
next page »The icing on the cake would be finding out the $6B the Pentagon 'found' was wired to Prigozhin to do this. He was going to pull some stunt like this and having the Americans pay for it (and get nothing in return) would be hilarious.
Posted by: Mario F | Jun 26 2023 15:52 utc | 2
Reposted from the previous thread:
▪️“We did not show any aggression but we were under a missile attack. About 30 Wagner PMC fighters were killed. This was the trigger that we should move forward immediately.”
▪️During the entire march, which lasted 24 hours, Wagner covered 780 km, not a single soldier on the ground was killed. “We regret that we were forced to strike at air assets. But these weapons delivered missile strikes.”
▪️During the march, all military facilities that were along the road were blocked and neutralized.
▪️None of the fighters was forced into this campaign, and everyone knew the ultimate goal.
▪️The goal was to prevent the destruction of the PMC "Wagner" and to bring to justice the people who with their unprofessional actions made a huge number of mistakes during the military defense. This was demanded by the public, all the military personnel who saw us during the march supported us.
▪️We stopped at the moment when the first assault detachment, which approached 200 kilometers, made reconnaissance of the area and it was obvious that a lot of blood would be shed.
▪️Our decision to turn around were based on two factors: the fact that we did not want to shed Russian blood. The second factor is that we went to demonstrate our protest, and not to overthrow the government in the country.
▪️At this time, Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the further work of Wagner PMC.
▪️Our march of justice showed the most serious security problems throughout the country.
▪️We showed a master class of what February 24, 2022 should have looked like.
Posted by: boon | Jun 26 2023 15:43 utc | 469
Truly, Prigozhin is the gift that keeps on giving. But keep the faith, b!!
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 15:52 utc | 3
nah, it was all a ruse ....
Sundance has a good summary over at The Last Refuge
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 4
This would support the view that the conflict with Wagner was a result of natural system dynamics in organisations, as I described here:
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 5
Mercury’s also agrees with b’s analysis that it was a coup and does an excellent job addressing the alternate theories that it was not a coup. https://youtu.be/sKTk79Lol7w
Posted by: Turk 152 | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 6
kudos on that prediction b! i did acknowledge that in the previous thread..
this is like lord of the rings territory where prigozhin goes for the gold ring, lol.. i agree with your take here as well.. thanks for the links.. i had just read indian punchline and was going to share it, but i see you already have..
Posted by: james | Jun 26 2023 15:55 utc | 8
I agree with your take b.
Pringles seems to have a Trumpian psychology- loud, boisterous, able to inspire loyalty in others but ultimately only has loyalty to himself. The half-assed march was his Jan 6th.
It seems like there is debate whether anybody was actually killed during the march. UA was putting out a lot of false rumors, and people like Snekotron seem a bit too emotional about it to take seriously. It seems strange, though still possible, that a KA-52 and a bunch of EW helicopters would be flying within manpad range, and also strange that Wagner soldiers would be shooting them down.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 15:56 utc | 9
It seems like there is debate whether anybody was actually killed during the march. UA was putting out a lot of false rumors, and people like Snekotron seem a bit too emotional about it to take seriously. It seems strange, though still possible, that a KA-52 and a bunch of EW helicopters would be flying within manpad range, and also strange that Wagner soldiers would be shooting them down.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 15:56 utc | 9
Do you think that Prigozhin is lying when he says Wagner shot down Russian aircraft?
That would be a strange lie to tell, wouldn't it?
Russian joke from yesterday:
"All that we found out today is that if, God forbid, NATO attacks us, the most we'll be able to do is to dig out the asphalt and call Lukashenko"
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 15:58 utc | 10
Yes, this was essentially a labor dispute with an egotist. He did win the issue of Wagner's having to sign a contract with the MOD. It's now a voluntary contract.
Posted by: Douglas | Jun 26 2023 15:59 utc | 11
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 15:58 utc | 10
Nothing Prigo says is reliable. Before, he said that no blood was shed. Has the russian govt confirmed or denied anything?
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:00 utc | 12
Helmer speculated that NATO would do something big during/after the NATO exercises. Could they have been awaiting the invitation from newly recognized Pres. Prigozhin to fly into Russia to be greeted with roses showered on the flight crews? (Of course, the roses would have supplied by NATO for the media to film.)
Imagine that, all that wonderful NATO equipment all dressed up and sitting all over northern, central and eastern Europe with no place to go!
Instead of Chef Prigozhin's sumptuous banquet, NATO's warriors get to eat crow!
Posted by: JohnH | Jun 26 2023 16:01 utc | 13
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 15:52 utc | 3
@zinjanthropus, thanks for reposting the statement.
Posted by: boon | Jun 26 2023 16:02 utc | 14
While I am glad that this crisis was resolved quickly, the way it was resolved, Prigozhin getting to walk away and Wagner not being immediately disbanded, makes Putin look weak. Perhaps he is...I have no way of knowing. One thing for sure, this fiasco was bad, really bad. Now the psychopaths in Washington and NATO will escalate in the belief that if pushed hard enough Russia will fold like a house of cards. Rightly or as I believe, wrongly, this will only encourage them to move even closer to open war with Russia. The second and third order events of this debacle could be terrible in their consequences.
To have allowed this incident to happen at all, especially given all the indicators in the weeks proceeding, shows gross negligence in the top levels of the Russian MoD and the Kremlin. Putin needs to clean house and he needs even more to be seen cleaning house by the world. He also needs to take the gloves off and turn off the lights in Ukraine, destroy the railroads and bridges, and turn the command centers into rubble. Something he should have done long ago. Ask any martial arts or (real) military expert and they will tell you that when you have the opponent on the ropes you finish them off because if you let them hang around long enough, anything can happen and probably will.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:02 utc | 15
https://verstka.media/v-belarusi-stroyat-lagerya-dlya-vagnera
Wagner 2.0 trip around the prisons for new personnel and x servicemen.
Posted by: slippery | Jun 26 2023 16:03 utc | 16
from b's bottom link -prigozhin translation..
"So, we started our march because of justice. On the way, on the ground, we did not kill a single soldier." this leaves out the helicopters taken out...
Posted by: james | Jun 26 2023 16:03 utc | 17
But the Russian prosecutors will not close the treason case against him. Should he again make a hassle he will likely end up in jail.
Basically, Putin gave Prigozhin a head start before the hunting begins ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 16:04 utc | 18
I suppose this is a longshot but could his being sent to Belarus be as a guard against Polish invasion and/or regime change in Belarus? What do you guys think?
Posted by: BB | Jun 26 2023 16:05 utc | 19
Thanks b, good analysis. This was all an oligarchic temper tantrum. And nothing more.
Lucky for the 'west' it was all prepared and ready to go with an orchestrated propaganda campaign that Putin's goose was cooked. Guess the 'west' really did know in advance about the impending temper tantrum. The vain above-the-law exceptionalism of oligarchs led to a big lax in security.
cheers!
Posted by: gottlieb | Jun 26 2023 16:06 utc | 20
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:02 utc | 15
What possible resolution to the situation would not have had "Putin looking weak"? I can't imagine any better outcome for Putin than what happened. Everything resolved in one day, bloodlessly or near bloodlessly.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:07 utc | 21
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 15:58 utc | 10
Nothing Prigo says is reliable. Before, he said that no blood was shed. Has the russian govt confirmed or denied anything?
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:00 utc | 12
I realize that the Russian government is completely honest and never tells a lie (while at the same time being brilliant at maskirovka and misdirection), but can you think of any reason why it might not be completely forthcoming about a Russian PMC shooting down Russian aircraft?
I can.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:07 utc | 22
Posted by: Turk 152 | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 6
This latest analysis by Mercouris is sheer brilliance.
He is without parallel.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 16:09 utc | 23
catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:07 utc | 21
That I cannot say because I never would have allowed it to happen in the first place. This was easy to see coming and I find it very concerning that it wasn't.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:11 utc | 24
Putin is indeed stronger after this affair and Russia is more united, but the enigma that is Russia has every barfly and neocon nonplussed.
Russian history is dotted with these events, 1812 particularly, when Kutuzov had to fight his own generals and public opinion to achieve his remarkable victory.
During the patriotic war, generals and field marshalls went from heroes to zeroes in the blink of an eye.
The Russians are fighting for the survival of their country and not for the first time. The mindset, mechanisms of governance, public sentiment, patriotism, the core of the soul of Russia, is beyond the understanding of any non Russian.
We in the west are being run by white protestant lunatics who have no understanding of history or reality. Russia on the other hand is run by professional patriots who are just continuing on with their duties much the same as their ancestors.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Jun 26 2023 16:12 utc | 25
nah, it was all a ruse ....
Sundance has a good summary over at The Last Refuge
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 4
I repeat.... It's a STING....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 26 2023 16:13 utc | 26
Putin should have taken a cue from the US by dropped a nuclear bomb on Priggy to satisfy the press, chest pounding armchair warriors and get campaign money for reelection.
Posted by: Turk 152 | Jun 26 2023 16:13 utc | 27
Another thought on this is that perhaps the much anticipated big military move against Ukraine is imminent. If so, why disband Wagner immediately prior to their being useful. The sending them to Belarus not so much exile as a military maneuver.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 26 2023 16:13 utc | 28
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:07 utc | 21
I agree, I'm glad this farce was nipped in the bud. Russia has bigger problems to worry about.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 26 2023 16:15 utc | 29
The Russians have a greater sense of humor than the westerners. I am sure they were just having a bit of fun watching the west react to the charade. The "cook" took the bribe money from the CIA and went to Belarus with tactical nukes able to act on his own (strike at will) aside from Russia. Winning! Russia can deny having any control over the cook! What is NATO's policy for that? Hahaha
Posted by: CeaClearly | Jun 26 2023 16:15 utc | 30
Putin dealt with it head on and did it quite successfully but he did climb down from his earlier position to prevent bloodloss and avoid distraction from the full scale conflict that is going on in Ukraine and that in a way does make him look weak.
A group of merc just took over Russian military district running the entire Ukraine op with no shots being fired went up to 200 km close to Moscow with wagenr troops taking out any Arial military assets coming over them. No one stooped them in this march. This definitely makes Russian state and it's leader look weak.
Unless this was spar of the moment decision it is an abysmal Intel failure of Russian Intel services.
Also (maybe wrongly) it makes Russian people look apathetic with regards to the whole issue with of leadership (liek they dont care who leads) although seeing how Russian staying power for this offensive that is a wrong assumption. They believe in putin enough to die for him and Russian elite siding quickly around him because they know the street is with putin.
Anyone can say the Russian military could've taken them out anytime on the road, just like b claimed any offensive of Ukraine can be cut down but Ukraine did 2 very successful offensive on kherson and somewhere else. With all air assets deployed and ground troops all engaged in Ukraine who knows if it was possible or not.
Posted by: A.z | Jun 26 2023 16:16 utc | 31
Hartz4ukr@ 3.51.
In the absence of Russia, meetings about a peace initiative are futile and meaningless.
All that can be discussed are the terms under which the West is willing to surrender, and what can be offered to Russia to end hostilities.
Any attempt to formulate threats that will achieve the ends desired by the West will have the same degree of success as the German Leopards and the Ukrainian “counteroffensive “.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Jun 26 2023 16:19 utc | 32
22. Equally I am sure that if the holy crusaders against Russia had even a smidgen of actual evidence of aircraft or pilot losses it would be trumpeted here and elsewhere. And yet, all I hear are crickets.
The alphabet soup and associated hangers on are just upset they once again are caught flat footed with their biased analysis of events..and that possibly a number of fiat dollars used to grease the wheels of the 'rebellion' have gone poof?
As someone said a nice retirement fund for Hot Dog guy.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:21 utc | 33
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 26 2023 16:13 utc | 26
I repeat.... It's a STING....
No. No. No.
That may be an inadvertent side benefit by not government on earth would risk the perception of a coup simply to play games to catch little fish.
The perception of a coup alone is enough to risk a real coup from being triggered.
I repeat: This was no masquerade ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 16:23 utc | 34
My own opinion: the MoD knew Prigozhin was planning a putsch and permitted it to go ahead, knowing it would fizzle. That they knew of the possibility of a Wagner coup nobody can dispute after the video of Wargonzo saying as much to Prigozhin. That that could have stopped it, since they knew, is obvious. So they deliberately didn't stop it. What did it get them?
1. They got rid of Prigozhin.
2. They took over Wagner, which was something that they wanted to do anyway.
3. It didn't deflect for one minute from operations at the front.
Now the "sacking" of General Mizintsev takes on a new light. You may recall he was "sacked" some weeks ago and literally overnight became Wagner "deputy" commander. I had assumed along with lots of others that this "sacking" was a cover story for his deputisation to Wagner as a trained officer. But now I'm thinking that it was precisely to ensure that the inevitable Prigocoup floundered.
I just saw claims on Telegram about the new Wagner bases being built allegedly post haste on Belarusian territory to accommodate Wagner men who had joined in the Prigozhin Putsch. I don't believe they're being built overnight, I think the MoD ordered them well in advance and they are only being announced now.
We will find out more as the days go by.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 26 2023 16:24 utc | 35
Posted by: A.z | Jun 26 2023 16:16 utc | 31
"Unless this was spar of the moment decision it is an abysmal Intel failure of Russian Intel services."
First, the same precautions that Wagner uses to counter UA's intel gathering are just as effective, or ineffective, against RU intel gathering.
Second, we do not know that there was an intelligence failure. Intelligence may have been timely and accurate, but was not believed by decisionmakers, or they did not act upon the intelligence for whatever reason.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:24 utc | 36
Uh and what about the 7 planes and helos shot down by Wagner and the 30 deaths...
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 26 2023 16:25 utc | 37
"That I cannot say because I never would have allowed it to happen in the first place. This was easy to see coming and I find it very concerning that it wasn't.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:11 utc | 24"
OK... even with the benefit of hindsight, what could you have done that would have prevented it from happening, and not led to a worse outcome? I suppose you could have thrown Pringles from a window, but until he actually pulled this stunt he was still very popular.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:26 utc | 38
What possible resolution to the situation would not have had "Putin looking weak"? I can't imagine any better outcome for Putin than what happened. Everything resolved in one day, bloodlessly or near bloodlessly.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:07 utc | 21
I can think of lots of ways it could have looked better for Putin.
First would be none of this happening at all.
Next would have been Prigozhin not saying that Russia's pretexts for the entire invasion were lies.
Next would have been Wagner not taking over the military headquarters in Rostov.
Next would have been Prigozhin not having a friendly chat with local commanders about getting rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Next would have been Wagner not advancing hundreds of kilometers up the highway towards Moscow.
Next would have been Wagner not shooting down Russian helicopters.
Next would have been not announcing that Wagner and Prigozhin were getting amnesty despite having committed treason and killed Russian soldiers.
Next would have been not continued confusion over Wagner's status.
Next would not be Prigozhin not continuing to troll the Russian military and point out that the original invasion was a complete cluster****.
I'm sure you can think of others.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:26 utc | 39
FROM HERO TO TRAITOR?
A month ago Prigozhin, along with his Wagner troops, were considered the heros of Bakhmut. Now, not much more than a month later, Prigozhin is considered a traitor.
I don't think Prigozhin would have risked his "hero" status if there had not been some truth about the corruption and hurt from the Russian MOD towards his Wagner troops.
Maybe Prigozhin just got too close to the front lines and to his troops. Maybe he counted himself personally responsible for too many of his men dying. We don't know and perhaps never will.
From hero to traitor in a little over a month, unbelievable! However, a lot that has happened regarding Ukraine and those associated with it are pretty much unbelievable. I think what is about to happen regarding the West and the Bear will be just as unbelievable.
Now Russian General Shoigu may be next to fall. Hal Turner published a recent article about such:
Maybe a Russian military brass, clean-up needed to happen before the bear could go where it is destined to go?
Corruption tends to slow and disrupt progress in all segments of any organization.
While the corruption of the Russians is being hinted at and perhaps exposed, they have nothing on the corruption ingrained within the West, that is the USA and the rest of NATO.
Both the lion (Great Britian) with wings (USA) and the bear (Russia) are beasts. Both have their corruption. Soon all the 4 beasts of Daniel 7 will have had their day in the sun and will become history as the kingdom of a 1000 years is established in perfection.
Posted by: young | Jun 26 2023 16:30 utc | 40
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:26 utc | 3
LOL keep slinging that crap, you aren't convincing anybody. Pringles didn't either, and i bet that he did get paid, and made the US look like losers again.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 26 2023 16:32 utc | 41
The Belarus border with the Ukraine is practically on the other side of the Dniepr river. Mogilev is not so far from Kiev or to Zhytomyr. July is going to be interesting!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 16:33 utc | 42
It's only because the West gets played so badly here - basically cognitive dissonance preventing people from acknowleding the obvious. As the authors of this entire Ukrainian Misadventure, why do you think the Western planners have a modicum of competence? From this assumption flows other mistakes.
As I said if you think Hot Dog Guy spontaneously up and decided to cross the Rubicon with a handful of ragtags after first announcing his coup on social media, then proceeded towards Moscow with a speed that would make the famed tortoise look like Usain Bolt, then suddenly everything got resolved without any kinetic action verifiably happening, I've got a big old bridge in Brooklyn looking for a new owner.
Or maybe Hot Dog really is crazy? While impossible to say for sure, the doubts here are serious and cannot be handwaved away. Which, my friends, appears to be the point.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:34 utc | 43
so funny watching Occam's razor sharp adherents out on imaginary limbs. Love the now popular buzz phrases and mawking points. Never too late for jello. Where are the pentagon budget analysts now? Must be some more cash on hand..
Posted by: Not Ewe | Jun 26 2023 16:34 utc | 44
The Belarus border with the Ukraine is practically on the other side of the Dniepr river. Mogilev is not so far from Kiev or to Zhytomyr. July is going to be interesting!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 16:35 utc | 45
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | Jun 26 2023 15:53 utc | 4
nah, it was all a ruse ....
Sundance has a good summary over at The Last Refuge
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/06/25/sunday-talks-anthony-blinken-spins-a-tale-of-woe-for-vladimir-putin/#more-248140
==================================
In the article and comments it is implied or stated that Prigo scammed the CIA somehow. Is there any substance to this story (the six billion figure often comes up)?
In any case, that was an interesting personal background profile via a source in St Pete.
Thanks.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:34 utc | 42
It seems like Pringles overestimated his own popularity. He thought that he was more important than the success of the SMO. When people just started calling him a traitor and refused to support him, and instead of Russian officials flocking to him his own Wagner troops were deserting him, he had no choice but to give up.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:42 utc | 47
Quick one re: Bernard.
"But the Russian prosecutors will not close the treason case against him."
Does that mean you have now obtain information proving that this quote from RT:
"The criminal case against Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) founder Evgeny Prigozhin will be dropped and he will leave Russia, the Kremlin announced on Saturday evening."
, is false?
If that is so I would want a link.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 26 2023 16:43 utc | 48
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 26 2023 16:25 utc | 36
Uh and what about the 7 planes and helos shot down by Wagner and the 30 deaths...
This is why Prigozhin and his closest accomplices will eventually be charged.
The State has no choice or it will risk de-legitimization.
Unless of course, Prigo plays his jew card ...
Posted by: Arch Bunglea | Jun 26 2023 16:43 utc | 49
So there is an elite military unit in Belarus that could attack Ukraine from another direction and not a single uproar from the West? Nicely played is all I can say.
Posted by: Watzov | Jun 26 2023 16:43 utc | 50
As I said if you think Hot Dog Guy spontaneously up and decided to cross the Rubicon with a handful of ragtags after first announcing his coup on social media, then proceeded towards Moscow with a speed that would make the famed tortoise look like Usain Bolt, then suddenly everything got resolved without any kinetic action verifiably happening, I've got a big old bridge in Brooklyn looking for a new owner.
Or maybe Hot Dog really is crazy? While impossible to say for sure, the doubts here are serious and cannot be handwaved away. Which, my friends, appears to be the point.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:34 utc | 42
Just as with the initial invasion, Prigozhin's intentions are not the important thing. The important thing is what the episode reveals about Russian capacities, or lack thereof.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:43 utc | 51
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 26 2023 16:13 utc | 26
I repeat.... It's a STING.... INDY
============================
Yeah, that notion seems to best fit the bizarre facts pattern. And if true, there will be an aftermath from information/proof the Sting exposed. Also, bona fide tensions between Wagner and MoD may have rippled back up the food chain revealing tensions between various power factions one or more of which might now soon find themselves on the outs.
Of course, no subsequent changes will have anything to do with what just happened...
Hero status??? You dont seem to have a clue of what this man is. He spent much of the 80's in jail for armed robbery and his "catering" business was no doubt a front for organized crime. He started his bullshit accusations against the MOD after they got on his case for using his adventure in the SMO to advance his brand and create a cult of personality. It wasnt prudent to remove him at the time but once he was no longer at the front, the MOD began to require all troops in the combat zone sign a contract with the army. Then he clearly lost his freaking mind, but quickly realized no one in Russia supported him. Indeed, he is a fossil. There is no place in Russia for men like him anymore. So bye bye beautiful!
Dont confuse the men of Wagner with pricko. Most of them had no part in all of this.
Posted by: nook | Jun 26 2023 16:45 utc | 53
So there is an elite military unit in Belarus that could attack Ukraine from another direction and not a single uproar from the West? Nicely played is all I can say.
Posted by: Watzov | Jun 26 2023 16:43 utc | 50
1. There were elite military units in Belarus that participated in the initial invasion. They failed.
2. It would have been possible to transfer elite units to Belarus without having them stage a mutiny first.
This 4D chess fantasy is one of the sillier bits of cope over the entire episode.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:47 utc | 54
Of course, no subsequent changes will have anything to do with what just happened...
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2023 16:44 utc | 52
Of course not. If Shoigu and Gerasimov is fired next week, the Prigozhin will still have "lost."
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 26 2023 16:51 utc | 55
@ pretzelattack | Jun 26 2023 16:32 utc | 40
pringle chips... i like that.. you didn't say that, but close enough, lol...
Posted by: james | Jun 26 2023 16:52 utc | 56
Well, whether Prigozhin gets used to attack Western interests from Belarus, back in Bakhmut, Syria, or Africa, it will be fun to watch those who had just got done hailing him then denounce him as a monster from the pits of hell.
I have no insights as to what is what, but if Prigozhin and his most fanatical devotees, ones who you wouldn't want to trust within regular Russian forces, were willing to take on "The Dirty Dozen" type missions on a much bigger scale, then that could be a win-win for all concerned parties.
The Dirty Dozen (1967) - Breaking in Franko Scene (1/10) | Movieclips
Prigozhin can be Franko (John Cassavetes), or he can be Major John Reisman (Lee Marvin), maybe Putin is allowing him that last chance?
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 26 2023 16:53 utc | 57
Whether coordinated with the Russian government or spontaneous, this wasn't a mere protest.
As part of his misinformation campaign, Prigozhin accused the general staff and the Russian government of hitting only civilian targets in Ukraine, of orchestrating false-flags in DNR&LNR since 2014, of disrupting negotiations with Ukr -- basically, he repeated verbatim Ukrainian and Western talking points, pinned the entire blame on Russia and demanded immediate cessation to hostilities. There was also the matter of a bus full of civilians destroyed by incompetent Russian troops attempting to stop Prig's march of justice -- complete fabrication that went nowhere.
That's not him protesting against MOD injustice, that's him desperately trying to generate support from some pro-Western liberal camp after the pro-Russian patriotic camp failed to support his bid. To them, his appeal was that the front-line was crumbling, soldiers were being fed into a meatgrinder and MOD was trying to sabotage the war effort for their own interests -- nobody bought it. A misinformation campaign trying to appeal to all oppositionally minded camps, foreign and domestic which, ultimately, failed to materialize.
If his goal was to retain formal control of Wagner, he could have worked towards that through back-channels and potentially succeeded -- even the July 1 deadline for MOD contracts would not have meant an end to efforts towards that. If it was merely a question of money or profits, a buy-out would have quickly been organized -- when was the last time a Russian oligarch got forced out without compensation? Only time when that's permissible is when they themselves create the conditions for it, like Prigozhin just did.
The situation for Prigozhin personally was not dire, even with pending investigations -- save for this stunt, he would have been untouchable. The fact that he wasn't touched even after this armed uprising attests to that. He appears to have risked everything he had on this gambit and the pressure on him that we know about is inadequate to explain his behavior.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 26 2023 16:53 utc | 58
51. Do tell. What has this revealed? From my point of view, the event reveals the myopia and group think of Western 'intelligence'. But I am always interested in alternative perspectives that don't hinge on ethnicity or religion or other trite bullshit.
As aside,.an official request to rename Prigz to Hot Dog Guy.
Hot Dog Guy is rumored to have got fat stacks from idiots in the West for his little bit of theater. What say you to these rumors?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:54 utc | 59
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2023 16:36 utc | 46
------------
There's no place called St. Pete in Russia, even in Russian slang. St. Petersburg has another shortform, Пи́тер (Peter) and that's said with love. 'Sundance' in an American, anyway, so, just spinning yarns... :)
Пи́тер is not St. Pete.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 16:54 utc | 60
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 16:26 utc | 37
So what your saying is Putin really is weak. Got it, and more and more I am beginning to agree.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:55 utc | 61
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/oligarch-with-private-army-cancels
Another interesting slavic take...
In my intro to Lavrov's RT interview, I wrote the following and linked to the sources named:
Many unanswered questions remain related to Prigozhin's revolt. I have made several comments on the affair at Moon of Alabama, Simplicius the Thinker, and on my VK Wall. The commentary and analysis by Larry Johnson has been quite good, this one from the 24th in particular as well as from yesterday which provides some deep background on Prigozhin many won't know. However, we do know a few things and those are provided by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in this interview with RT. Several references are made to President Putin's speech (in Russian) to all Russia on Saturday morning as the affair was gathering pace. I read it at 9am Pacific when most of the affair was over, although I did know of its beginnings the previous evening. As with many intrigues, we may never discover the whole truth, but IMO a decent hypothesis that fits the known facts can be put together—and in doing so, it's paramount to include as much of the overall context as possible.
I'll single out Larry Johnson's latest because of the crucial info it provides on Prigozhin. As for what Lavrov added, here're the two Q&As that IMO are most important, although IMO the entire interview is a must read:
Question: There have been reports that the United States has abruptly changed its mind about imposing additional sanctions against the Wagner PMC in order not to be "on the side of Vladimir Putin." Does this indicate a change in the US approach? Earlier, there were loud calls to recognize this PMC as a terrorist organization.Sergey Lavrov: This is not a change in the US approach, but another confirmation that it depends on what Washington needs from an external player at this particular stage. Whether in the international arena as a whole, or in a particular country. In connection with the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has repeatedly shown complete bias and bias. They are waging war against the Russian Federation with the hands of Ukrainians.
A few years ago, on the eve of the signing of the Minsk agreements, structures such as the Azov Regiment were "marked" as terrorist in the US Congress. It was clearly stated that American aid to Ukraine should not apply to them. All this is forgotten. Azov has long been rehabilitated. Following the "senior comrade", some time ago, the Japanese Parliament decided to withdraw the Azov regiment from the list of extremist organizations.
Everything lends itself to the very "rules" by which the West lives itself and wants others to do too. They have nothing to do with international law or the laws of any country, including Western ones....
Question: What do you think of the avalanche of statements from Western analysts that the crisis around the Wagner PMC indicated that the authorities in the Russian Federation were losing control of the situation and that a civil war would soon begin?
Sergey Lavrov: They are wishful thinking. This is what "embraced" our Western colleagues yesterday and Saturday evening. I got acquainted with how events in Russia are covered. In particular, CNN (if I remember correctly) reported that American intelligence knew about the impending rebellion for several days, but decided not to tell anyone about it. Apparently, in the hope that the rebellion will succeed. I am prompted to the same idea by another CNN report, which sounded just yesterday with reference to US intelligence analysts. It said that it was expected that Prigozhin's campaign against Moscow would meet with much more resistance and would be much bloodier than it actually was. Here is an indirect answer to your question: what was expected and why did you comment on what was happening exactly as you quoted? According to Freud, representatives of the Ukrainian regime, including Vladimir Zelensky and his henchmen, Mikhail Podolyak and Alexander Danilov, spoke quite frankly about these "expectations" of exactly this kind and nature – the collapse of the Russian state. All of them lamented that it was not possible to use this situation for the "collapse of the regime."
French President Emmanuel Macron, a representative of European democracy who defends Europe's "strategic autonomy" from the United States and everyone else, was also noted. But he is not far from the United States. Emmanuel Macron said that they look at this situation with caution. They say that it is developing rapidly, but the main thing that they saw was the split, fragility and weakness of the regime and the army, which fully justifies their actions to continue military support for Ukraine. Here, even an eighth-grade student will understand the position advocated by Emmanuel Macron, who clearly sees in the current development of events a chance to realise the threat (like a mantra repeated by NATO leaders) that Ukraine will inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. I am referring not only to Ukraine, but to the entire Western camp, as President Vladimir Putin said in his speech on Saturday: "Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us." It is clear that CNN, the leaders of the Ukrainian regime and politicians such as Emmanuel Macron are part of this "machine".
Yesterday, US Ambassador Larry Tracy spoke with Russian representatives, conveyed "signals" (they are not secret) that the United States had nothing to do with it, that they hoped that nuclear weapons would be in order, that American diplomats would not suffer. It was emphasized that the United States proceeds from the premise that everything that happens is an internal affair of the Russian Federation.
Here, too, we can cite some recent and not so recent examples, when in a particular country attempts were made to rebel and a coup d'état, the United States reacted differently each time depending on who was in power and who tried to carry out a coup. For example, the sadly memorable year of 2014: the Kiev Maidan, bloody provocations against unarmed law enforcement officers, a coup d'état against the legitimate president at the very moment when a settlement agreement supported by the European Union was concluded a few hours earlier. The United States, as well as its European allies, did not show any protests against that rebellion. They seemed to admit that such a "zigzag" was made by the democratic process, as one of the German leaders said at the time.
In the same 2014, a coup d'état took place in a state called Yemen and its President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia. All these long years, with regard to Ukraine, all our attempts to return the situation to the political track have come across the phrase that Viktor Yanukovych left Kiev, and with regard to Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who fled, the whole West told us in unison that no, he is the legitimate president, that he must be returned to Yemen, only then will the settlement process begin.
In the same year, in 2014, there was an attempted coup in the Gambia. As soon as the first reports appeared that the putschists had taken up arms, the State Department immediately declared that the United States would never recognize forces that had come to power unconstitutionally.
A couple more recent examples. The United States categorically refused to call for dialogue between the puppet government of Moldova, when President of the Republic of Moldova M.G. Sandu, with her Russophobia, went so far as to "rouse" thousands of people to peaceful protests. Remember how the West reacted and said that this was an attempted coup d'état, that it would never support it. At the same time, there were processes in Georgia, where the West does not like the current government. There, supporters of Mikhail Saakashvili (who came to power as a result of a coup d'état supported by the West), who completely satisfied the West, rose up against him, arranging a "Georgian Maidan".
Here are a few examples that where the West is interested in maintaining the lured power, then there can be no protests by definition. And where the government does not reflect the interests of the hegemon, but tries to proceed from the national interests of its country and people, there all sorts of punks are "instigated" to this power. These are the American "rules" - "the world the American way", as they want to see and strengthen it.
Meanwhile, there's very little activity at the Kremlin website with only very short and very similar readouts of phone conversations Putin has with Iran's Raisi and Qatar's Al Thani.
Well, whether Prigozhin gets used to attack Western interests from Belarus, back in Bakhmut, Syria, or Africa, it will be fun to watch those who had just got done hailing him then denounce him as a monster from the pits of hell.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 26 2023 16:53 utc | 57
More cope. No one with a brain in the West thought this muntiny somehow transformed Prigozhin into a good guy. There are non guys in the Russian leadership of this stupid, murderous war. But Ukrainians and Westerners appreciated Prigozhin confirming that the invasion was based on lies.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:57 utc | 64
There's no place called St. Pete in Russia, even in Russian slang. St. Petersburg has another shortform, Пи́тер (Peter) and that's said with love. 'Sundance' in an American, anyway, so, just spinning yarns... :)
Пи́тер is not St. Pete.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 16:54 utc | 60
Actually I refuse to acknowledge the existence of Saint Petersburg to this day, there is only Leningrad.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 26 2023 16:57 utc | 65
It's not an e...ING ruse
Also one other thing hutis had someone close to Saleh to take him out if there was betrayal. Putin didn't have someone close to this guy who was always extremely ambitious is a massive failure on putins's part
Also Chinese probably r now less enamored with putin. Erdogan rushed to pledge support for putin xi didn't. Although this fits in with Chinese thinking of not interfering on internal affairs putin is the only one that is keeping Russia on the multipolar path most of the elite would jump on the chance to go back to reset and lpot Russia in peace so this was a mistake and putin won'tforget this. I hope xi got in touch with putin very early and pledged support just asked putin to keep it hush hush
Posted by: A.z | Jun 26 2023 16:57 utc | 66
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:47 utc | 54
1. There were elite military units in Belarus that participated in the initial invasion. They failed.
They didn't fail.
A draft peace agreement was signed.
Withdrawal was carried out as a sign of good will.
Zelensky murdered his own negotiator and thing's went to pieces after that.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 16:58 utc | 67
Progozhin has the same personality disorder as Donald Trump, namely: he has a cluster B Narcissistic personality disorder. He exhibits all the indicia of an advanced condition.
Stop all the silly blather and conspiracy theories - it makes MofA look rediculous and incredible.
Prighozhin pulled this caper in a simple narcissistic reaction to the MoD getting rid of him by assimilating Wagner into the regular army - that's it. Everything else is fantasy. Even the sources who this bar usually follow, like Ritter, etc. have fallen into this one.
Everyone should give their head a shake and stop making up silly stories. You only provide grist for the Western propaganda mill.
Posted by: HOGGY | Jun 26 2023 16:58 utc | 68
Everything about the Prigozhin event is consistent with and accounted for by b's factual analysis. That is: the Ministry of Defense (MoD) had announced that all the Wagner fighters would have to sign contracts with MoD by the 1st of July. That requirement would remove Prigozhin from his position as direct manager of the Wagner group, as they would be accountable to the MoD. That is plainly a threat to Prigozhin's political power as well as to his income. So, it is natural and predictable that he would pitch a fight against it, which he did. And in which he was quickly defeated.
Observers who want a juicier story are free to let their imaginations run wild, but there is no need to look farther than Prigozhin's obvious swollen ego and the discomfort that comes with losing wealth, power, and social status. Those three factors are enough to drive most of the extreme behavior in human history. Prigozhin (and Wagner) will be an interesting footnote in the history of the Ukraine conflict.
Posted by: Clever Dog | Jun 26 2023 16:59 utc | 69
Uh and what about the 7 planes and helos...
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 26 2023 16:25 utc | 36
Do we have any evidence of that other than some shitposts on tge Internets from sources unknown?
Posted by: averros | Jun 26 2023 17:01 utc | 70
"Mogilev is not so far from Kiev or to Zhytomyr. July is going to be interesting!"
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 16:35 utc | 44
About the same distance to Vilnius too.
Posted by: dh | Jun 26 2023 17:02 utc | 71
New piece on the chessboard either by design or accident. NATO will be forced to redeploy troops to deal with the threat while Russia cleans up in Ukraine. NATO has already admitted this fact:
"If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told reporters.
Posted by: Tom | Jun 26 2023 17:02 utc | 72
Prigozhin is Acting Within Russia’s Historical Tradition
Thus far, no one has understood the significance of Prigozhin’s Rebellion nor hit upon the true and accurate interpretation of these events. Prigozhin has been pilloried as egotist screaming for attention or a traitor in the pay of Western intelligence agencies. Both of these claims partake of a highly occidental worldview which does not comprehend the cultural antecedents of Prigozhin’s actions. On the contrary, I say that Prigozhin is a Russian and that he is acting within the Russian historical tradition.
The analogues of Prigozhin’s Rebellion are not to be found in 1917 or 1905, but much further back, in the uprising of Stenka Razin (1670) and in Pugachev’s Rebellion (1773).
That curious mixture of brigandry with populist politics (so misunderstood by people in the West); those ill-fated and quixotic marches upon Moscow, chanting death to Tsars and bureaucrats; the gathering and then exile of mercenary forces sympathetic to the reform but equally and patriotically in love with the motherland---it has all happened before. This seems to be the way in which the Russian soul expresses itself in tense moments, just as surely as no American can get angry at his government without the echoes of the Tea Party and Declaration of Independence ringing in his ears.
Prigozhin gave voice to broad undercurrent in Russian society that, while very loyal to the government, wants to see the war prosecuted harder and burns with indignation at every brother Russian who dies in battle while the government plays it safe. Not wanting to appear contentious, they keep their thoughts to themselves until they explode in a great swing in the opposite direction, bringing vengeance and chastisement upon Moscow whom they view as a prodigal son. It is the style of the sudden catharsis, the style of the pogrom, the Russian style.
In each of these explosions a local hero steps forth onto the stage of history, move towards an end that cannot hep but result in his personal, he impels, focuses, and clarifies all the hidden needs of the Russian heart. We don’t excuse their misdeeds, but we redeem somewhat of their memory in museums and songs, for we are sympathetic to their passion. The same fever burns within us. Razin, Pugachev, Prigozhin---their names belong together forever.
While the West propagandizes itself with tales of Prigozhin’s ego or with utterly baseless calumnies about his subversion by Western intelligence (because that is according to its nature), Russia has been fortified by Prigozhin’s fever, even if he was fated to play the role of the evil humor.
Half hero, half criminal, all Russian---Prigozhin. Remember him with mercy.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 26 2023 17:02 utc | 73
From Open Source Intelligence Monitor @sentdefender (Twitter) this morning:
Preparations are reportedly underway for the Construction of a Major Operations Base for the Wagner PMC Group near the Town of Osipovichi in the Mogilev Region of Eastern Belarus, with the Base said to be able to House and Support up to 8,000 Fighters; Belarusian Media has stated this is part of a plan to Build a Network of Camps and Facilities for the Wagner Group across Southern and Eastern Belarus with the Majority being roughly 100 Miles from the Border with Ukraine.
Reasonable to assume the plans and preparations for this base HAD to have been in place BEFORE the alleged "mutiny" took place. How to reconcile that with the events of the past few days...
Posted by: Irish | Jun 26 2023 17:03 utc | 74
It is moments like these that I am forced to remember most people think with their emotions and not their minds. You have to be in the 9th level of delusion to believe this was anything other than the obvious clusterf#$& this was. No 5D chess, no genius psy-ops...all it takes is a moment of rationality, a reminder of Occum's Razor, and a look at the potential second and third order effects of this fiasco to know this was exactly as it looks...a megalomaniac who got mad that his shiny toy was being taken away from him.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 17:05 utc | 75
Actually I refuse to acknowledge the existence of Saint Petersburg to this day, there is only Leningrad.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 26 2023 16:57 utc | 65
----------------------
Well, even then we used to call it Peter Пи́тер and with love... :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2023 17:06 utc | 76
HOGGY @68
It's an absolute given that most all world leaders are narcissistic gobshites, fckheads, and psychopaths. Our western culture screens for it.
Rule of thumb: if somebody WANTS to be a leader, they should NEVER be let to be a leader.
Posted by: Irish | Jun 26 2023 17:08 utc | 78
Lavrov suggwst west intelligence agencies were involved.
Let us not forget what happened on Saturday. Before anyone of us knew what was happening, western media was reporting there was am ongoing coup in Russia. How did they know that - if indeed the west was not involved? It is almost irrelevant what Prig's motivations were. Amd as b acknowledges, he is a business man. Albeit one with balls. Whatever else one might say about him.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 26 2023 17:09 utc | 79
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 16:47 utc | 54
1. There were elite military units in Belarus that participated in the initial invasion. They failed.
They didn't fail.
A draft peace agreement was signed.
Withdrawal was carried out as a sign of good will.
Zelensky murdered his own negotiator and thing's went to pieces after that.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 26 2023 16:58 utc | 67
"Withdrawal was carried out as a sign of good will."
It would be interesting for students of this sort of thing to trace the origins and dissemination of this particular bit of cope.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 17:09 utc | 80
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 16:55 utc | 61
You dodged the question. Try again.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 26 2023 17:10 utc | 81
51. Do tell. What has this revealed?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 16:54 utc | 59
As the Bolsheviks might say, power is lying in the streets.
Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 26 2023 17:12 utc | 82
A key part of a commentary by a senior analist of Egmont Institute, mouthpiece of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is reproduced below:
"The Kremlin’s power struggle has become increasingly complex and opaque, resulting in heightened uncertainty, suspicion, and nervousness within the center of power. Putin finds himself trapped in a Catch-22 situation, faced with frustrating or impossible choices. Consequently, we may witness increased risk-taking, impulsiveness, and emotional reactions. The likelihood of desperate actions, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, has increased rather than diminished.
Once again, the words of Russian philosopher and sociologist Gregory Yudin ring true when he stated in April 2023 that “Russia’s war against Ukraine is going to be a disaster for Russia in every possible way.” It becomes evident that the outcome of Putin’s war against Ukraine will shape his future as president and determine the fate of Russia as a state. This life-or-death situation will significantly influence the course of the war in Ukraine and the potential escalation dynamics with NATO."
The piece is of course flawed in many respects. The author bases himself on a power struggle in the Kremlin that does not exist. His point is apparently that Putin faces impossible choices and could resort to tactical nuclear weapons. On the eve of the NATO summit, is this a call for preemptive NATO intervention "before it is too late"?
The full text of the Egmond-comentary: https://www.egmontinstitute.be/russias-dangerous-weakness/
Posted by: Paul-Robert | Jun 26 2023 17:12 utc | 83
I tend to agree with JustAMaverick's analysis of the recent events with regards to PMC Wagner and Prigozhin, though I do not necessarily agree with the Shock & Awe military approach that he appears to advocate for the SMO.
b was of course correct in his asseveration that this this coup-lite would end within 12 hours (and kudos for that prescient prediction), but to think that the consequences of these events are anything but adverse for Putin and Russia seems to be naive in the extreme. Although I do concede the adverse consequences could have been much worse, do doubt the Collective West was hoping for much more. I think the key factors moving forward are the outcomes on the SMO battlefields (obvious), but also the performance of the Russian economy, which undoubtedly took a body blow due to the instability engendered by Prigozhin's antics. Victory though, especially when decisive, does have a way of washing clean all past blots and missteps.
Posted by: Akash | Jun 26 2023 17:15 utc | 84
catdog | Jun 26 2023 17:10 utc | 81
I answered your first question...didn't see another.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 26 2023 17:16 utc | 85
75. Sorry why exactly should we not believe that this was orchestrated? Because you don't want to believe that?
You do realize there is serious speculation among historians not blinded by political considerations that Pearl Harbour was deliberately allowed to happen, the US being in possession of Japanese intercepts, in order to consolidate Maerican opinion towards intervening in the Pacific?
This being the case you think driving up the highway with a few tanks in order to achieve a number of goals including neutralizing a rumoured external plot is impossible? Is Putin a Saint or something?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 17:16 utc | 86
To the comments along the line of "Letting Prigozhin go makes Putin look weak."
Would it be better if Putin had turned Prigozhin into a martyr? With any number of people believing the hero tales spun around him? Better to let him live and discredit himself. For now.
I think they let him go to see what they can salvage of the Wagner PMC. If they had killed him (and the participants in his march) the Wagner organisation would've been totalled. So now they can decide what / who can be salvaged.
Posted by: Martina | Jun 26 2023 17:17 utc | 87
82. Jesus Christ can you be more opaque? In other words the event told you sweet fuck all. Meanwhile the alphabet soup is till relying on a - now past expiry date - cockamianie plan for regime change. Dumb as a bunch of rocks.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 17:18 utc | 88
So far, my quick overview of Russian media reveals very little. Sputnik has "Back to Normal: What’s Going on in Moscow & Beyond After Wagner’s Aborted Mutiny Gamble?" where we learn that Moscow's mayor "Sobyanin announced on Monday that he was cancelling a counter-terrorism regime imposed in the Russian capital," but nothing is mentioned about Voronezh oblast. And that "Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has inspected Battlegroup Zapad's frontline command post, ordering commanders to continue reconnaissance to uncover and suppress enemy plans, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said in a statement on Monday." RT has highlights of its interview with Lavrov but little else.
A question related to b's reporting asked by several barflies is answered by TASS, "Investigation into case surrounding Prigozhin continuing — source":
The investigation of the criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), accused of organizing an armed mutiny, has not been closed, a source in the Russian Prosecutor General's Office confirmed to TASS on Monday."The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been closed. The investigation is continuing," the source said.
Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday that as of the morning of June 26, the criminal case concerning the organization of the armed mutiny involving Prigozhin has not been closed and continues to be investigated by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).
Otherwise, media is rather silent as it is mainly publishing recap articles that don't add anything new to what's already known. I couldn't find any info saying the ATO was cancelled for Voronezh oblast.
Was anyone actually killed in this clown show? In other words, was there any real combat that ended in deaths?
Some say a helicopter was blown up, some say a truck in the highway was blown up, some say those videos are fake.
Too many mutually contradicting accounts.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 26 2023 17:23 utc | 90
I'll stop my rampant lurid speculation to thank b for hosting and 63 and 73 in particular on this thread for your contributions. Appreciated as always.
My responses will be delayed I will check again when possible.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 26 2023 17:23 utc | 91
>>While the corruption of the Russians is being hinted at and perhaps exposed, they have nothing on the corruption ingrained within the West...
According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, a lot of the European countries are remarkably corruption free. With 1 the best, the US is 24 and Russia 137 out of 180 countries. In the bad old days, communism worked so badly that it was all but necessary for companies to deal in the black market simply to operate. Corrupt relationships the norm. The imbedded corruption is probably why Russia all but spun out of control when they tried to go capitalist in the 1990's One of Putin's great accomplishments was simply getting the country to operate in a normal way.
Prigozhin's allegations of corruption in the Russian military are likely to be true.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 26 2023 17:24 utc | 92
In response Jonathan W@79,
An analysis of Prig's motivations, stated or otherwise, is an important factor for getting a comprehensive picture of what actually happened and what one may expect going forward. Being satisfied with a superficial examination is likely to lead to the wrong conclusions being drawn and decisions made. Of course, commentators on this message board are unlikely to occupy official positions where the outcome may be significant material damage; worst case scenario is that all arguments boil down to repeating "cope" until the next shiny object appears in the information space where the might exist a niche for nuanced thinking.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 26 2023 17:25 utc | 94
Prigozhin suffered a reverse Trump Syndrome fit when he realized his cash cow was being conscripted. Like Trump's Jan 6 Congressional assault, Prigozhin had no institutional or wide popular support with which to threaten an overthrow of the government.
Posted by: Wilikins | Jun 26 2023 17:27 utc | 95
Unconfirmed rumours suggest the film rights have already been sold. Tentative titles include “The Cook, The Thief, The Bribe And The Cover”...
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 26 2023 17:29 utc | 96
In response to Jmaas@91,
According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, a lot of the European countries are remarkably perceived to be corruption free.
Fixed. Presumably, the rankings reflect the amounts donated to the survey.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 26 2023 17:29 utc | 97
B, I don't think you've got it... So what have the Russians achieved with this theatre? The movement of large amounts of military equipment... Putin has freed his hands to liquidate the fifth column, Russia is more united than before, no one will object anymore.. See his speech. They baited the Ukrops into another "offensive". They've made !diots of the western press and politicians again. They have imposed a 30 day anti-terrorist regime (they can arrest whoever they want). And they have a list of traitors who have surfaced. And in Rostov they gave the people a nice military parade where they could take pictures with their biggest heroes - musicians. So, Prigozhin once again hit the jackpot. The Russians play chess, the West plays checkers.
Posted by: hes | Jun 26 2023 17:30 utc | 98
According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, a lot of the European countries are remarkably corruption free.Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 26 2023 17:24 utc | 92
The corruption perceptions index is often wrongly interpreted. It is not a measure of actual corruption. It is a measure of how much corruption the average person BELIEVES exists.
It's in the name Corruption Perceptions Index.
If the score for a country is low, it doesn't necessarily mean there is low corruption. It is could also mean the average citizen is a gullible fool who doesn't recognize corruption in their own country.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 26 2023 17:33 utc | 99
Prigozhin is a liar, but I wonder if there is something else at work here.
The Maidan violence took off after someone shot and killed protesters and police. Both protesters and police blamed the other party - not realizing that there was a third party who targeted both of them.
That third party is very interested in getting a Maidan started in Russia.
I wonder if this third party was active behind the scenes - shooting down Russian planes and helicopters on one hand, and targeting Wagner soldiers while wearing Russian uniforms on the other.
Once both sides engaged in blood-letting, it would've been near impossible to stop it. (At least until the Wagners had been completely wiped out.) And Western media and politicians would've finally gotten the pictures they've been waiting for.
I think that was a major reason for letting Prigozhin go - to stop the fighting on Russian soil before it took on a life of its own.
Well, wherever Prigozhin is now, he obviously feels safe again. He's started spouting off again in social media.
Posted by: Martina | Jun 26 2023 17:34 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Germans preparing the OLAF farce for July to get ROW on their side:
Official negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian conflict will begin next month, according to the German TV channel ARD.
According to the channel, on June 24, a meeting was held in Copenhagen to discuss the issues of the Ukrainian crisis. The meeting was held "in conditions of strict secrecy" and brought together diplomats from Western countries, as well as representatives from Brazil, India, China and South Africa.
Particular attention in this context is paid to the participation of the BRICS countries, which have so far remained neutral in relation to the situation in Ukraine. It is reported that one of the main goals of the West at this meeting was to obtain support from these countries.
According to the ARD TV channel, the negotiations were initiated by Kiev. This gives some hope for progress in resolving the Ukrainian issue, because official negotiations between the parties may take place as early as July.
At the moment, the details of the upcoming negotiations and the specific timing of their holding remain unknown. However, apparently, both sides are demonstrating a readiness for a productive dialogue and a desire to find ways to resolve the contradictions that exist between them.
Posted by: Hartz4ukr | Jun 26 2023 15:51 utc | 1