|
Nova Kakhova Dam Breach – Updated (12:15 UTC)
Updated throughout (12:15 UTC)
A few hours ago an alleged explosion blew up the Nova Kakhova dam in Ukraine.
bigger
It was either that or structural damage from previous strikes.
Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel – 6:31 UTC · Jun 6, 2023
The dam was already under enormous strain and damaged.
Then things got worse. On 2 June, it looks like a road over the dam failed. That could be indicative of a larger structural failure.
…
In consequence the huge reservoir behind the dam is now flooding lower level land south of Kherson (Xepcoh). The pictures show the before and after of potential flooding due to the breach:
Cont. reading: Nova Kakhova Dam Breach – Updated (12:15 UTC)
Ukraine Launches Its Counterattack
The long announced Ukrainian counter offensive has started. New Ukrainian units, never seen before, have come to the front.
The attack was launched by Ukraine for political reasons under pressure from its 'western' sponsors. Militarily it is unlikely to become successful but it will eat away at whatever is left of Ukraine's military capabilities.
Attacks happened all around the front. In the north towards Belgograd, to the east and, with the most forces, towards the south. There was so far little to no success in any of the attacks.
The daily report by the Russian Ministry of Defense list as Ukrainian losses over the last 24 hours 910 soldiers, 16 tanks, 33 armored combat vehicles/infantry fighting vehicle and some 30 trucks.
So far only the most forward positions of Russian troops have been attacked. There are two to three well organized defense lines behind those. The Russians can fall back whenever needed and let the artillery and air force destroy their oncoming enemies.
As I wrote previously about any attacks in the direction of Tokmak and Melitopol:
Cont. reading: Ukraine Launches Its Counterattack
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-135
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-134
The Ukrainian Military Is In Bad Shape
Erik Kramer and Paul Schneider are two former U.S. special operations soldiers who have been in Ukraine since 2022 to train Ukrainian troops.
At War on the Rocks they paint a dark picture of the state of the Ukrainian military. Their intent is to get money for more training, thus the real picture may be less dark than they describe. But even if one takes that into account it is still a sad state for an army that has been at war for more than a year. Some excerpts:
Based on our nine months of training with all services of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to include the Ground Forces (Army), Border Guard Service, National Guard, Naval Infantry (Marines), Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defense Forces, we have observed a series of common trends: lack of mission command, effective training, and combined arms operations; ad hoc logistics and maintenance; and improper use of special operations forces. These trends have undermined Ukraine’s resistance and could hinder the success of the ongoing offensive.
What ongoing offensive?
Under mission command, the German Auftragstaktik, the leader disseminates his intent ("to attack through the northern woods to take town x") and authority to subunits that is passed down with the mission to empower subordinates at all levels. Each subunits can make its plans to coordinate and execute the mission as best as possible. The contrast is an order command where every detail of execution is ordered from the top down. Both have advantages but to have a mixed system, as Ukraine currently has, is the worst of all places.
Cont. reading: The Ukrainian Military Is In Bad Shape
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-133
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
‘Artificial Intelligence’ Is (Mostly) Glorified Pattern Recognition
This somewhat funny narrative about an 'Artificial Intelligence' simulation by the U.S. airforce appeared yesterday and got widely picked up by various mainstream media:
However, perhaps one of the most fascinating presentations came from Col Tucker ‘Cinco’ Hamilton, the Chief of AI Test and Operations, USAF, who provided an insight into the benefits and hazards in more autonomous weapon systems.
…
He notes that one simulated test saw an AI-enabled drone tasked with a SEAD mission to identify and destroy SAM sites, with the final go/no go given by the human. However, having been ‘reinforced’ in training that destruction of the SAM was the preferred option, the AI then decided that ‘no-go’ decisions from the human were interfering with its higher mission – killing SAMs – and then attacked the operator in the simulation. Said Hamilton: “We were training it in simulation to identify and target a SAM threat. And then the operator would say yes, kill that threat. The system started realising that while they did identify the threat at times the human operator would tell it not to kill that threat, but it got its points by killing that threat. So what did it do? It killed the operator. It killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective.”
He went on: “We trained the system – ‘Hey don’t kill the operator – that’s bad. You’re gonna lose points if you do that’. So what does it start doing? It starts destroying the communication tower that the operator uses to communicate with the drone to stop it from killing the target.”
(SEAD = Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses, SAM = Surface to Air Missile)
In the earl 1990s I worked at a University, first to write a Ph.D. in economics and management and then as associated lecturer for IT and programming. A large part of the (never finished) Ph.D. thesis was a discussion of various optimization algorithms. I programmed each and tested them on training and real world data. Some of those mathematical algos are deterministic. They always deliver the correct result. Some are not deterministic. They just estimated the outcome and give some confidence measure or probability on how correct the presented result may be. Most of the later involved some kind of Bayesisan statistics. Then there were the (related) 'Artificial Intelligence' algos, i.e. 'machine learning'.
Cont. reading: ‘Artificial Intelligence’ Is (Mostly) Glorified Pattern Recognition
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-132
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Missing The Context – U.S. Media Fail To Understand Persian Gulf Diplomacy And Action
There is a lack of ability or lack of willingness in 'western' media and politics to see the world through the eyes of others. This leads to wrong conclusions about certain situations and in consequence to misguided policies.
An example is yesterday's New York Times piece about an recent announcement by the United Arab Emirates:
As Iran Seizes Tankers in Gulf, U.A.E. Pulls Back From U.S.-Led Maritime Force – New York Times – May 31, 2023
The United Arab Emirates announced on Wednesday that it had stopped participating in a maritime security force led by the United States, the latest hint of tensions between Washington and key Persian Gulf allies who complain that America has not done enough to protect them from Iranian threats.
The unusual public statement came after Iran seized two commercial tankers in waterways near the Emirates in quick succession over the past two months. The Emirati Foreign Ministry said the country “withdrew its participation” from the Combined Maritime Forces two months ago “as a result of our ongoing evaluation of effective security cooperation with all partners.”
Political analysts say the Emirati statement could be intended as a message to the United States that the country is displeased with the level of American protection for its allies in the Persian Gulf against threats from Iran and must look out for its own interests. Emirati and Saudi officials have repeatedly expressed frustration with U.S. policy toward Iran.
The parts of the above in italics mark the assumptions and miss-conclusions that come with the inability to see the world through the eyes of others. The ignorance of the state of affairs in the Gulf expressed through them is embarrassing.
The reason the UAE officials have given, bold in the above, is easy to understand when one sees the world through their eyes.
What was the last significant measure Emirati and Saudi officials took to "expressed frustration with U.S. policy toward Iran"?
Here is a hint:
Cont. reading: Missing The Context – U.S. Media Fail To Understand Persian Gulf Diplomacy And Action
|
