Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• June 12 – Ukraine SitRep: Destruction Of Its Third Army – Issues To Negotiate
• June 13 – Did Russia Destroy The Nova Kakhova Dam?
• June 16 – On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack
  Related:
  – Russia, Learning From Costly Mistakes, Shifts Battlefield Tactics– New York Times
  – Russia aims to defeat counteroffensive with mines, artillery and aviation – Washington Post
  – Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem – The Drive
  – Final Battle In Russia-Ukraine War? | Maj Gen GD Bakshi's Grand Strategy on Kiev's Counteroffensive (video) – Republic World
  – 10 minutes summary of the Lancet suicide drones at work … – @MyLordBebo
  – Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18 June 2023) – Ru MoD

b: If my summing up is correct the report lists Ukrainian losses due to failed mass attacks over the last 24 hours as:
68 tanks, 64 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 74 Armored Combat Vehicle and 860 950 personnel. Those were enough combat vehicles for two complete brigades!

• June 14 – Astroturfing For More War In Ukraine
  Related:
  – Exposed: Disturbing Details of New Pentagon “Perception Management Office” – Mintpressnews
  – Seymour Hersh: Russiagate’s Missing Pieces – Scheerpost

• June 15 – Drifting To Oblivion, We Drown In Beauty by beq

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-143

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

On June 4/5 the Ukrainian military launched its long announced counteroffensive in southeast Ukraine. Ten days later there is no significant progress.

bigger

This is not the outcome the war propagandists expected:

[General Petreus] spoke about the situation in Ukraine to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

On the counteroffensive, he said:

I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.

My sense is that they will achieve combined arms effects in other words, they will successfully carry out combined arms operations where you have engineers that are breaching the obstacles and diffusing the minefields and so forth; armour following right on through protected by infantry against anti-tank missiles; air defence keeping the Russians aircraft off them; electronic warfare jamming their radio networks; logistics right up behind them; artillery and mortars right out in front of them.

And most important of all … is that as the lead elements inevitably culminate after 72-96 hours, physically that’s about as far as you can go, and they’ll have taken losses … you have follow-on units that will push right on through and capitalise on the progress and maintain the momentum and I think that can get the entire Russian defence in that area moving, then I think you have other opportunities that will open up on the flanks as well.

Back in reality the lead elements of the Ukrainian attack got slaughtered. They 'culminated', i.e. lost their ability for further attacks, in less than a day:

Cont. reading: On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack

In the early years of Moon of Alabama I, at times, posted works of art created and sent in by commentators who had moved with me to this blog after Billmon had shut down his 'Whiskey Bar'.

Their were oil paintings by anna-missed, photographs by b_real, poems by rememberinggiap, ceramics by annie and pictures in oil, pastel or acrylic by beq.

Other commentators reflected on those works.

Such Bar-fly art still has its (unfortunately incomplete) category page. Here you can scroll through it. After I had taken a break in posting at this site the Bar-fly art theme never revived.

So I was pleasantly surprised when beq recently contacted me and sent me a new picture.

She wrote:

I have four large paintings that I made last year. Each is 42"x 94" [107 x 239 cm]. I lay down on the paper and had a friend trace my outline on the paper with spray paint. The rest is watercolor. [These are not what you're used to :-)]

drifting to oblivion, we drown in beauty

by beq

much bigger

beq adds:

Cont. reading: Drifting To Oblivion, We Drown In Beauty

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

Fellaraktar🇺🇦@fellaraktar – 14:46 UTC · May 29, 2023

As a British citizen I want to say that arming Ukraine is the single best use of tax payer money for decades

My only criticism is that the west aren’t sending enough, fast enough

Ukraine is paying for political posturing with the lives of their sons and daughters

Do more now

Karen Goetz📯🇺🇦 @KarenGoetz362 – 22:18 UTC · May 29, 2023

As a German citizen I want to say that arming #Ukraine is the single best use of tax payer money for decades. My only criticism is that the west aren't sending enough, fast enough. Ukraine is paying for political posturing with the lives of their sons and daughters. Do more now!

Cont. reading: Astroturfing For More War In Ukraine

Propaganda will tell you that Russia detonated the Nova Kakhova Dam which was and is under its control. It thereby allegedly cut of Crimea from its major water supply and endangered the cooling of the six reactors of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The island as well as the power plant are under firm Russian control.

Well, so you can believe that. Or you can look for some facts hidden behind such 'news'.

Battles Rage as Ukraine Tries to Retake Russian-Occupied Territory – New York Times – June 9, 2023

Experts say the dam, which was held by Russian forces, was probably destroyed by an intentional explosion within the massive structure. They say an explosion from the outside, like a missile strike, or a structural failure caused by earlier war damage and high water spilling over the top, were conceivable causes but far less likely.

Ukraine Claims More Small Advances in Counteroffensive, but No Breakthroughs – New York Times – June 12, 2023

Engineering and munitions experts have said that the dam was probably breached by an explosion from the inside, not by shelling or other external attacks, and not by a structural failure.

Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say – CNN – May 12, 2023

The United Kingdom has delivered multiple “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving the nation a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

Storm Shadow – Wikipedia

The Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead features an initial penetrating charge to clear soil or enter a bunker, then a variable delay fuze to control detonation of the main warhead. Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets.

"Two stage warhead punctures external shell, then detonates inside target"

Storm Shadown – Federation of American Scientists

When engaging hard targets, such as Hardened Aircraft Shelters or bunkers, the missile will strike the target at the estimated optimum dive angle, selected during mission planning. On impact the detonation sequence commences. The precursor charge will perforate the target structure, and any soil covering, and the follow through penetrator warhead will continue to penetrate inside the target to be detonated after a preselectable fuse delay.

Another Ukrainian attack got bogged down in a minefield.

bigger

Losses:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Destruction Of Its Third Army – Issues To Negotiate

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• June 5 – Ukraine Launches Its Counterattack
• June 6 – Nova Kakhova Dam Breach – Updated (12:15 UTC)
• June 9 – Kursk 2.0?
• June 10 – "Let's Try This Again!"
  Related:
  – Quiet death (scroll down) – Colonel Cassad / Niqnaq
  – The war in Ukraine and the fight over raw materials – WSWS
  – Vladimir Putin answered a journalist's question about the situation in the special military operation zone. – Kremlin.ru

  – Biden’s team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive – Politico
  – White House anxiously watches Ukraine’s counteroffensive, seeing the war and Biden’s reputation at stake – Politico
  – As Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive, Definitions of ‘Success’ Vary – New York Times
    Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely.

• June 6 – New Nord Stream Cover-Up Story Is Based On Dubious 'Leak'
• June 7 – No – Such Propaganda Delusions Will Not Win The War
• June 9 – Media: One Side "Says" – The Other "Provides No Evidence":
  Related:
  – Longing for Crusades – New Left Review
  – Applebaum & Goldberg: Truth attended by a bodyguard of lies – Responsible Statecraft

• June 8 – After Pardon Given To Regime Changer Roman Protasevich His Girlfriend Gets Released Too
  Related:
  – Sofia Sapega shares her plans for near future – Belta
  – Macron at 2023 Globsec summit: ‘We pushed Belarus toward Russia’ – Kyiv Independent
  – The United States condemns a deal allowing Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. – New York Times

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-138

Yesterday I posted a picture of a Leopard 2A6 tank, 4 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and a Soviet era mine clearing vehicle all caught up next to each other in a minefield. There is now also better video of that scene as well as others.

bigger

For unknown reasons the Ukrainian command later decided to add five more Bradleys to the scrap exposition:

Military Advisor @miladvisor – 18:06 UTC · Jun 9, 2023

⚡️👇9x 🇺🇸M2 Bradley,🇩🇪Leopard 2A6, armoured recovery vehicle lost by Ukrainian forces.
video

bigger

It is the same Leopard tank in the same position. I believe that the ‘armoured recovery vehicle’ @miladvisor mentions is an incorrect identification of the mine clearing vehicle that can also be seen in the previous picture.

Cont. reading: “Let’s Try This Again!”

Lazy and arguably biased as I am, I will just present the analysis (slightly edited) of the former Swedish officer and defense politician Mikael Valtersson:

ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA AFTERNOON JUNE 9

Hard fighting continues along the Zaporizhia front, but with no Ukrainian breakthrough. Sometimes UkrAF makes small gains and then RuAF retakes the lost territories. But all fighting are still being conducted in the grey area in front of the Russian main defence lines.

bigger

I will not go into details about attacks and counterattacks, but the main areas of fighting has been centred around Lobkove to the west, and Robotino to the south, of Orikhiv. Lobkove was captured a short while by Ukrainian forces, but later they retreated due to intense Russian bombardments.

bigger

Cont. reading: Kursk 2.0?

The recent reporting on the conflict in Ukraine in 'western' media has reveled a deceiving scheme in which baseless claims from Kiev are taken for granted while everything Moscow says, even when based on facts, is put into doubt.

Here are a few examples:

White House dismisses ‘ludicrous’ Russian claims US planned Kremlin drone strikes – Guardian – May 4, 2023

Asked about an accusation by the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, that Washington had ordered Wednesday’s strike, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman, said: “One thing I can tell you for certain is that the US did not have any involvement with this incident, contrary to Mr Peskov’s lies, and that’s just what they are: lies.”
…
Earlier on Thursday, Peskov claimed the US had “dictated” the plan of what Russia said was a drone attack on the Kremlin intended to kill Vladimir Putin. Peskov did not provide any evidence to support the allegations.

What evidence did the U.S. provide?

Ukrainian forces advance on Russians, deny ‘counteroffensive’ has begun – Washington Post – June 5, 2023

Cont. reading: Media: One Side “Says” – The Other “Provides No Evidence”

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

On May 26 I commented the pardoning of Roman Protasevich in Belarus:

Closing The Case Of Regime Changer Roman Protasevich And His Ryanair Flight To Minsk

Moon of Alabama has followed the case throughout. Those interested in the details of the original incident can find them in our June 2 2021 post. For a wider political view of the 'color revolution' business in east Europe see this piece by Kit Klarenberg. Links to all MoA posts about the case are listed at the end of this piece.

A week after the incident, during a long TV interview, Protasevich spilled the beans about the whole regime operation. He also says that he has come to believe that one of his regime changer colleagues had sent the bomb threat email to get him arrested.

A few weeks later Roman Protasevich and Sofia Sapega were released and put under house arrest. A trial followed and, in early May of this year, he was sentenced to eight years in prison.

I though that the sentence, in light of his public turnabout, was quite harsh but others accused of the same regime change operations against Belarus had received up to 20 years prison time. Still, eight years is a long time for a young man who had clearly changed his mind. Sofia Sapega, who is a Russian citizen, had earlier received a 6 year sentence.

On May 22 Protasevich was unexpectedly pardoned:
…

All was fine with Protasevich but the fate of his (former?) partner, Sofia Sapega, was still up in air. I expressed hope that she would soon be released too:

Cont. reading: After Pardon Given To Regime Changer Roman Protasevich His Girlfriend Gets Released Too

I do not know what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius or the Biden administration officials he is talking to are smoking, but it must be extraordinary strong stuff:

Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front. That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.

The 'thrust' was against a small Russian held salient in the front line near Velyka Novosilka at the center of this map.

bigger

Zooming in we see the current frontline as depicted by the Ukraine friendly LiveUAmap.

Cont. reading: No – Such Propaganda Delusions Will Not Win The War

On April 10 some briefing slides for the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff appeared on the internet. They seemed to be genuine. But later a second larger batch was claimed to have come into the hands of so called journalist. I had and still have strong doubts about that second round:

When media reported on the first batch of 'leaked' Pentagon briefing slides they also published pictures of the originals.

Then came a second round which conveniently was more about bashing Russia than on the releases itself. Those leaks were labeled as new or from a previously unknown source. Among those stories were: …
…
We have pictures of the first stash of the files. The briefing slides seem real to me. The language is correct Pentagon lingo. The abbreviations used are typical. But some of the information therein, like the casualty numbers, is dubious. Do the Joint Chiefs of Staff really get briefed with Ukrainian defense ministry numbers that are know to be mere fantasies? The Pentagon and/or the CIA certainly have their own casualty estimates. Why not brief those?

We have seen no picture of any slide that the additional stories are based on. Why were those not published?

A plausible explanation is that the first release was a real leak but that someone is now pushing new 'leaks' to dedicated outlets that are only half true or mere propaganda.

Another 'exclusive' in today's Washington Post, allegedly based on the same leak, only increases my doubt about that alleged second stash of documents:

U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline

Cont. reading: New Nord Stream Cover-Up Story Is Based On Dubious ‘Leak’