On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack
On June 4/5 the Ukrainian military launched its long announced counteroffensive in southeast Ukraine. Ten days later there is no significant progress.
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This is not the outcome the war propagandists expected:
[General Petreus] spoke about the situation in Ukraine to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.On the counteroffensive, he said:
I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.
My sense is that they will achieve combined arms effects in other words, they will successfully carry out combined arms operations where you have engineers that are breaching the obstacles and diffusing the minefields and so forth; armour following right on through protected by infantry against anti-tank missiles; air defence keeping the Russians aircraft off them; electronic warfare jamming their radio networks; logistics right up behind them; artillery and mortars right out in front of them.
And most important of all … is that as the lead elements inevitably culminate after 72-96 hours, physically that’s about as far as you can go, and they’ll have taken losses … you have follow-on units that will push right on through and capitalise on the progress and maintain the momentum and I think that can get the entire Russian defence in that area moving, then I think you have other opportunities that will open up on the flanks as well.
Back in reality the lead elements of the Ukrainian attack got slaughtered. They 'culminated', i.e. lost their ability for further attacks, in less than a day:
The men of Ukraine’s 37th Brigade were freshly trained and armed with Western-supplied weapons, tasked with an initial push through Russian-occupied territory in the early days of a long-awaited counteroffensive.They would pay a heavy price.
Within 20 minutes of their June 5 advance south of Velyka Novosilka, in the southeast Donetsk region, mortars exploded all around them, soldiers said. A 30-year-old soldier known as Lumberjack saw two of the men in his vehicle bleeding heavily; one lost an arm as he cried out for his family. Lumberjack crawled into a crater, but the shrapnel from a mortar went through the soil and pierced his shoulder.
“We were left there in the field, without tanks or heavy armor,” said Lumberjack, who spoke to The Washington Post on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign because he was not authorized to discuss the battle. “We were shelled with mortars from three sides. We couldn’t do anything.”
There were fewer than 50 men in the unit, he said, and 30 did not return — they were killed, wounded or captured by the enemy. Five of the unit’s armored vehicles were destroyed within the first hour.
Whoever trained those units made grave mistakes:
For the first hour and a half of the 37th’s assault near Velyka Novosilka, the Russians bombarded the unit with nonstop shelling that penetrated their AMX-10 RC armored vehicles, according to Grey, another soldier in the battalion who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign. The armored vehicles, sometimes called “light tanks,” were not heavy enough to protect the soldiers, Grey said, and had to be positioned behind them instead of in front.
The AMX-10 isn't a tank and can not be used as one. It is a wheeled light reconnaissance vehicle built by France 50 years ago to dominate insurgents in its former African colonies. One of its main features is to have a good speed when in reverse gear. This to bail out as soon as serious counter forces are detected.
The Ukrainian counterattack is now stuck in the Russian defense security zone, miles away from the real defense lines. This was predictable.
As the U.S. Field Manual 100-2-1 described the Soviet army in defense (pg 93ff):
When the defense is established before contact with the enemy, the Soviets establish a security echelon up to 15 kilometers forward of the main defensive area. The elements which make up the security echelon come from the division's second echelon. A security force of up to battalion size may be deployed in front of each first echelon regiment.A detailed and coordinated fire plan is developed. Weapons are positioned so that the maximum amount of fire can be brought to bear directly in front of the [Forward Edge of the Battle Area]. Enemy penetrations are blunted by shifting artillery fire and by conducting counterattacks.
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The Ukrainian army used at least four brigades for its attack. At least two of those were from the 12 brigade reserve that had been built up for the counterattack. With losses of some 30% those involved were seriously mauled for little to no gain:
The Russians are trying to inflict as many casualties and destroy as many vehicles as possible in a battle zone ahead of the main defensive line, depleting Ukrainian forces before they reach it. In effect, it turns the area in front of the main defense line into a kill zone.
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If the Russian strategy proves effective, Ukraine could lose too many of its newly trained troops — which number in the tens of thousands — and too many tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to breach the main line.Even if they get that far, the forces might be too weakened to stream south and help accomplish a major objective: severing the so-called land bridge that connects Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. This would be done by reaching the Sea of Azov, about 60 miles away.
The Ukrainian forces were obviously not trained for this. They also attacked in too many places. The map at the top shows attack arrows in 7 places and four main directions. One or two attack directions, with more concentrated forces, might have created better results.
The Russian President Putin recently described the Ukrainian casualties:
I will not give the number of personnel losses. I will let the Defence Ministry do it after it runs the numbers, but the structure of losses is unfavourable for them as well. What I mean to say is that of all personnel losses – and they are approaching a number that can be called catastrophic – the structure of these losses is unfavourable for them. Because as we know, losses can be sanitary or irretrievable. Usually, I am afraid I may be off a little, but irretrievable losses are around 25 percent, maximum 30 percent while their losses are almost 50/50. This is my first point.Second, if we look at irretrievable losses, clearly, the defending side suffers fewer losses, but this ratio of 1 to 10 is in our favour. Our losses are one-tenth of the losses of the Ukrainian forces.
Since the start of the counterattack the Russian daily report has listed a total of some 10,500 Ukrainian casualties.
A second large attempt to cross the Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) with the remaining Ukrainian forces is expected, but is unlikely to have a better outcome. The long promoted Ukrainian counterattack is likely to end with high Ukrainian losses and no gains.
This then will soon become a huge political problem:
As he heads into next year’s reelection campaign, Biden needs a major battlefield victory to show that his unqualified support for Ukraine has burnished U.S. global leadership, reinvigorated a strong foreign policy with bipartisan support and demonstrated the prudent use of American military strength abroad.
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A muddled outcome of limited gains in Ukraine would provide grist for all of those critiques and further cloud the already murky waters of NATO and European Union debate over future posture toward both Ukraine and Russia. A less than “overwhelming” success would probably also increase pressure in the West to push Kyiv to negotiate a territorial settlement that may not be to its liking.
There is little the Biden administration can do to change the grim picture. Congress will likely prevent it from openly using the U.S. military in Ukraine. The European NATO allies have now seen what the Russian army can do to its enemies. They will not be eager to see the same done to their own troops.
That leaves negotiations as the only way out.
The question for Russia is when and with whom. Talks with only Ukraine, a mere U.S. proxy with no real say, would be insufficient. It is the U.S. government that must agree to a new security architecture in Europe. The Russian conditions for peace will be harsh and it will still take a lot of time, and many dead Ukrainians, until the U.S. agrees to them.
Posted by b on June 16, 2023 at 14:47 UTC | Permalink
next page »I have noticed a certain willingness to use nukes in Russia.
Sergey Karaganov: By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
https://www.rt.com/russia/578042-russia-nuclear-weapons/
"The credibility of nuclear deterrence must be restored by lowering the unacceptably high threshold for the use of atomic weapons and by moving cautiously but quickly up the ladder of deterrence-escalation. The first steps have already been taken through statements to this effect by the president and other leaders, by beginning to deploy nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles in Belarus, and by increasing the combat effectiveness of the strategic deterrent forces. There are quite a few steps on this ladder. I count about two dozen. It could even go as far as warning our compatriots and all people of good will about the need to leave their homes near the objects of possible nuclear strikes in countries directly supporting the Kiev regime. The enemy must know that we are ready to launch a preemptive retaliatory strike in response to its current and past aggression in order to prevent a slide into a global thermonuclear war."
"The enemy must know that we are ready to launch a preemptive retaliatory strike in response to its current and past aggression in order to prevent a slide into a global thermonuclear war."
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jun 16 2023 15:03 utc | 2
Thus, once and for all, all this disproves the old adage that "Attack is the best defence" (Angriff ist die beste Verteidigung/Angræb er det bedste forvar", One counterexaple is enouch to disprove any axiom,
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 16 2023 15:12 utc | 3
In response to David G Horsman@2,
I just came off from listening to Putin at Valdai, where he was asked to weigh on the topic of pre-emptive nuclear strikes. He categorically rejected the viability of such an approach and restated the doctrinal conditions which would need to be fulfilled for Russia to use its nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 16 2023 15:13 utc | 4
thank you b...
my only quibble is with your tentative conclusion here - "Congress will likely prevent it from openly using the U.S. military in Ukraine." as i see it congress will rubber stamp whatever it has to, to continue to maintain its eroding position in the world today..
of course the actions of the west here are madness personified.. that fellow Karaganov wrote an article which many refer to as madness as well... i say to those here - how do you stop this madness?? the actions of the west are not logical.. forget about using logic to counter madness.. something else is needed..
as for negotiations - the usa-nato will not negotiate either.. look at the actions of europe basically destroying itself to maintain its relationship to the usa as one of servitude.. nordstream, the dam - you name it... they will continue with this madness.. sorry, but that is how i see it..
Posted by: james | Jun 16 2023 15:14 utc | 5
"reaching the Sea of Azov, about 60 miles away"
Well, I'm a million miles away, I'm a million miles away
Sailing like a driftwood on a windy bay
Yes, I'm a million miles away, I'm a million miles away
Sailing like a driftwood on a windy bayWhy do you ask how I feel?
Well, how does it look to you?
I fell hook, line and sinker lost my captain and my crew
I'm standing on the landing
There's no one there but me
That's where you'll see me
Looking out on the deep blue sea
Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 16 2023 15:14 utc | 6
@ repost | Jun 16 2023 15:11 utc | 3
putin quote :
"The use of nuclear weapons is theoretically possible if there is a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation."
and what is this whole ukraine proxy war, but a slow motion move in this very direction?? Karaganov is apparently an idiot for discussing where this is headed... okay..
Posted by: james | Jun 16 2023 15:17 utc | 7
Do Ukrainian soldiers realize that their most important accomplishment has been to make rich weapons manufacturers & investors richer?
Are Ukrainian soldiers especially stupid or does every country have a massive supply of fools eager to continue making the rich richer?
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jun 16 2023 15:17 utc | 8
Arestovich: “During international conferences, (western leaders) nervously ask about the counteroffensive. I tell them, by (NATO’s) own doctrine, a counteroffensive on prepared defenses can be successful only if it relies on air superiority.”-> Criticism of the west grows …
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1669656820216999936
Arestovich to NATO: "yes we did prepare the attack according to Nato doctrine (in which air superiority is a component), and look what happened". Priceless.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 15:19 utc | 9
A scene from Blackadder Goes forth where General Melchett is presented with a life size model of the ground captured during the latest offensive, all 17 square feet of it
Tragically funny - I wonder if there is a General Melchettenko in Kiev right now?
Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 16 2023 15:20 utc | 10
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 16 2023 15:13 utc | 5
I just came off from listening to Putin atValdaiwhere he was asked to weigh on the topic of pre-emptive nuclear strikes.
He categorically rejected the viability of such an approach and restated the doctrinal conditions which would need to be fulfilled for Russia to use its nuclear weapons.
I also just finished watching Putin live at SPIEF. Where, exactly as you say:
…”He categorically rejected the viability of such an approach and restated the doctrinal conditions which would need to be fulfilled for Russia to use its nuclear weapons”.
@Horseman. You’re posting horse shit.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 16 2023 15:26 utc | 11
Are Ukrainian soldiers especially stupid or does every country have a massive supply of fools eager to continue making the rich richer?
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jun 16 2023 15:17 utc | 9
You have asked a question that looks like the answer is yes on both counts.
Brainwashing and coercion she powerful tool's.
Posted by: jpc | Jun 16 2023 15:27 utc | 12
"This then will soon become a huge political problem:
As he heads into next year’s reelection campaign, Biden needs a major battlefield victory to show that his unqualified support for Ukraine has burnished U.S. global leadership, reinvigorated a strong foreign policy with bipartisan support and demonstrated the prudent use of American military strength abroad.
...
A muddled outcome of limited gains in Ukraine would provide grist for all of those critiques and further cloud the already murky waters of NATO and European Union debate over future posture toward both Ukraine and Russia. A less than “overwhelming” success would probably also increase pressure in the West to push Kyiv to negotiate a territorial settlement that may not be to its liking."
I am less than optimistic long-term, and this makes the fanbois here apoplectic, but I also never made grandiose predictions of victory of the counter-offensive.
That said, one of three things will happen:
1.Any real or perceived Ukrainian success, even it is the seizure of a chunk of land large enough to cover a good-sized coffee table, will be proclaimed to be the greatest military triumph since the says of Alexander the Great, even if this costs Ukraine a mountain of corpses and another mountain of wrecked western equipment.
2. "See this is just a reconnaissance in force, a psyop to get Putin to overcommit. The REAL counteroffensive will come later." This again, after Ukraine pays a colossal price in blood for this "reconnaissance in force", not to mention the price in western treasure.
3. Ukraine achieves something tangible.
It almost doesn't matter what Ukraine does, real or imaginary. it will be declared to be "winning so we must escalate even further", unless and until Russia ends this thing once and for all.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jun 16 2023 15:27 utc | 13
"Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons now. The use of nuclear weapons is theoretically possible if there is a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation.
(c) Putin
CC
Posted by: repost 15:11 utc | 3"
Thanks that was a great post repost. I often appreciate Putin's level-headed cautious approach to things. Fortunately he's in charge.
When it comes to writing we are always asking "Who is the audience?". And in this neck of the woods we ask (per Caitlin Johnstone (sp)):
Why this?
Why now?
😉 so I'm really puzzling over all the crazy talk if you know what I mean?
Aside from that, and it's purely anecdotal, seems like a lot of people on both sides of the water are more nuke friendly these days.
Even the author of the article points that out, we are afraid when we should be terrified.
I called for a nuclear strike quite some time ago but unfortunately it didn't happen. Anywhere will do.
You see, it's the only way I can see to delay artificial general intelligence, but that's the other article. LOL. The clocks ticking.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jun 16 2023 15:29 utc | 14
Putin said that Russia will never be the first to launch a nuclear strike but nor they'll be the second.
Posted by: Vineri13 | Jun 16 2023 15:31 utc | 15
It's looking more and more like the West doesn't care that this is a complete slaughter and 10 Ukrainians are getting killed for each Russian. It's that one Russian that they are happy to see dead and that is why they want this war to continue for as long as possible.
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 16 2023 15:33 utc | 16
Seems like every day now. Another piece to corroborate the take that the ukraine and its backers are purposefully destroying life and equipment.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jun 16 2023 15:38 utc | 17
If the brigades that were formed for the offensive are undermanned, it creates a lot of problems for the VSU. Given the propensity of Kiev towards brazen lying (and its sponsors sharing that propensity), I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the 12 brigades were really more like 6 full-strength brigades. I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that Kiev lied to DC and DC just believed whatever Kiev told them. So DC demands the offensive for the sake of Joe Biden's political reputation and Kiev panics about not really having the strength necessary to implement the big arrows DC drew on the maps, especially without air support and likely based on inflated numbers for remaining air defenses. After all, air defenses can't be degraded if you're shooting down all the missiles and drones like you claim.
So maybe the dam was destroyed to allow VSU forces in Kherson city and Nikolaev to move to the offensive zone without completely exposing Kherson to a Russian counter. They did move several brigades from the area immediately after the dam failure. Should DC have known that Kiev was lying? Yes. Does it know that Kiev is lying? Probably, at some level. But information in DC only travels along pre-approved pathways where the information received is what the receiver wants to hear, at least at very high levels. So Kiev can lie to DC because DC wants to be lied to.
If I'm right, it may bode extremely bad for Kiev. The strategic reserves won't be gone after the last 12 days or so, but they may not be what was claimed to begin with. The primary attack forces have now been pretty significantly attritted, and the attacks on the near rear have likely been far more devastating than we're allowed to know.
Posted by: Lex | Jun 16 2023 15:40 utc | 18
Mark Mosby 9
Fixed it for you:
Do Ukrainian soldiers realize that their most important accomplishment has been to make rich weapons manufacturers & investors richer?
Are Ukrainian soldiers especially stupid or does every country have a massive supply of fools eager to continue making the rich richer?
In response to james@8,
I don't know if I would call Karaganov an idiot, but the notion of Escalate to De-escalate is an American invention ascribed to the Russian nuclear doctrine and Karaganov is essentially expressing its fundamental characteristics. The consequences of following such a strategy to its logical conclusion are uncertain, needless to say, and hinge on the premise of being able to scare one's opponent into refusing to initiate their own nuclear retaliation irrespective of the potentially automated nature of such a process.
As some have argued, the side that employs Escalate to De-escalate axiomatically loses versus the side that follows MAD, since it courts total nuclear obliteration with intentionally ineffective strikes designed to serve a demonstrative function.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 16 2023 15:42 utc | 20
Where is the battle area?
I think people may have misunderstood the role of the Russian fortifications seen in satellites photos. The long and deep trenches are there not to protect Russian infantry, but to protect Russian artillery from Ukrainian armored breakthroughs. Infantry will be fighting in the 10 km belt in front of the heavily fortified lines. This area will be covered by artillery from behind the fortified lines.
Infantry will also have its own trenches, but they need to be concealed by foliage, and are thus not seen in satellite photos. Also, infantry is more mobile and does not need such heavy fixed fortifications.
***
Q: What do you call a parking lot with one Leopard 2A6 and nine M2A2 Bradleys?
A: A culminating point.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 16 2023 15:42 utc | 22
In response to Melaleuca@12,
Cheers for the correction. SPIEF it is.
Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 16 2023 15:44 utc | 23
Combined arms require an air component, both fixed and rotor wing.
Ukraine has neither in any qtys that will effect the outcome.
Their FW have low success rate because they have very small windows of attack and retreat. They get shot down when they stray outside these windows, or Russian air defense shifts their units to new locations. The JDAMS are useless without some assurance the pilot and jet will return.
The RW portion is horrible. The MI-8/17 is not an attack helo. It is a general purpose, or Utility is US terms. It is also very old, using "steam gauge" technology. Strapping a few unguided rockets to it doesn't make it a sudden threat. The MI-24's are either shot down or unable to fly due to lack of parts. Again it is old technology, and seems like the old missiles for it are gone, leaving it with unguided rockets.
"Attack drones" (should be called Loitering Munitions) have tried to take their place, but overall have limits of weather and most do not have FLIR incorporated, meaning daytime only. But a successful LM is still a one shot, attack helo's typically can carry up to 8 shots per mission. Ukraine is behind on the types of these and their numbers.
Russian Lancets are by far the outstanding hero's of the deployed material. Longer range (similar to artillery) and a variety of warheads, and easy to produce internally in Russia.
Ukraine's largest mistake was attacking with high tech first. They should have used the ISIS and other approach by using low tech pickups with cheap mine sweeping attachments and medium cal weapons, and then a fleet of LM's behind when Russian positions were exposed. Only after attacking enough of those positions should medium and heavy armor have been used.
The cost one 1 Bradley or Leopard would get you 100 pickups (or more) with locally made mine rollers. Remote controls would be similar to UAV, and easily trained. Many would be destroyed, but costs and loss of personnel would be very low.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 16 2023 15:50 utc | 24
Are Ukrainian soldiers especially stupid or does every country have a massive supply of fools eager to continue making the rich richer?
Many of them have the excuse that they are being Shanghai’d off the street to fight in the neocons war.
Seems it would be best for them to fight their Right Sektor overlords than die a meaningless death under Russian artillery. But that’s easy for me to say.
Posted by: Fred777 | Jun 16 2023 15:50 utc | 25
"To Infinity and Beyond!"...
The fog of war has been replaced with denial of reality.
It's a demented obscenity by the Ukrainians at this point.
Posted by: jpc | Jun 16 2023 14:55 utc | 1
Buzz Lightyear in "Toys Story 10RC"(© AMX)....
The 37th Brigade spearheaded the initial assault on the fortified town, breaching the Russian defenses and paving the way for other Ukrainian formations—the 35th Marine Brigade, 25th Air Assault Brigade, 68th Jaeger Brigade, and a pair of territorial brigades—to push further south along the Mokri Yaly River.Ukrainian soldiers have likened the French AMX-10RC / RCR to a "sniper rifle" against Russian tanks, lauding its high-speed capabilities on the battlefield and precision fire from its 105mm main gun.
What do you expect from France ?
"Malheur à toi, pays dont le roi est un enfant..."
Ecclesiastes 1012 The words of a wise man's mouth are gracious; but the lips of a fool will swallow up himself.
13 The beginning of the words of his mouth is foolishness: and the end of his talk is mischievous madness.
14 A fool also multiplieth words: yet man knoweth not what shall be; and that which shall be after him, who can tell him
15 The labour of fools wearieth every one of them, for he knoweth not how to go to the city.
16 Woe to thee, O land, when thy king is a child, and thy princes eat in the morning!
Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 16 2023 15:56 utc | 26
Don't expect to see this documentary repeated on the BBC or Sky anytime soon.
(A short look at the Ukrainian SS division brought to the UK after the war).
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jun 16 2023 16:08 utc | 27
Re Skiffer (5) and Melaleuca (12) -- Putin also said, in response to a question about "red lines" at the recent war correspondents news conference:
"We will continue to work selectively, we will not do what these idiots do – they beat on civilian objects, on residential areas. Of course, we will not do this."
Use of nuclear weapons would involve mass killings of civilians and be contrary to Russia's stated policy in this war.
Posted by: nazcalito | Jun 16 2023 16:08 utc | 28
Zelensky accused Russia of intending to blow up the Zaporozhye NPP.
"Russia wants to undermine the nuclear power plant. Because, just like with the dam, they are not interested in security in Ukraine. They constantly need destabilization here, and they want the world to put pressure on Ukraine for the option they need to end this conflict," he said in an interview with NBC News.
Posted on UKR Leaks-eng on Telegram
Biggest sign yet that a nuclear false flag attack is being prepared.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 16 2023 16:11 utc | 29
the truth seemed.co.uk
Putin: There Will No Longer BE a "Ukraine" ...
That's the objective. The strain 404 must go. Novorussiya reestablished.Russian border on Dniepr river with Poland ?
War must and will continue until the last Nazi,Banderist,etc.
Posted by: Lech | Jun 16 2023 16:13 utc | 30
💢To summarize Putin's speech at SPIEF 2023.1. Russia withstood the economic blow of the West and has a solid economic foundation for further development. The United States failed to crush the Russian economy and will not succeed.
2. Russia will not close and go into autarchy. The stake will be placed on the development of relations (of all types) with the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America and with the European frontiers. Europe is receding into the background in long-term planning.
3. Russia is gambling in the apparent Syrianization of the conflict. Just as in Syria, Russia and Iran defeated the United States and the West in a marathon distance, they also expect to win in Ukraine as part of a long-term conflict. Of course, the territory of Ukraine in the coming years will face destruction comparable to Syria, where 75% of the infrastructure was destroyed, as well as a further reduction in the population living in the territory of the former Ukraine. The responsibility for this lies with the US and the Nazi regime in Kyiv, who are killing Ukraine against Russia.
4. The Russian Federation will use nuclear weapons only as a last resort. The bet is now being placed on a long-term conventional war. More than others (besides Ukraine), Europe will suffer from this, which has already entered a recession and will become even more dependent on the United States.
5. In general, Russia is fully aware of the need to wage a Cold War 2.0 for a long time and a multi-year war in Ukraine in the style of "Syria at maximum speed".
The goals of the NWO will not be abandoned. On the contrary, the last year of the war clearly showed that without achieving the denazification of Ukraine, other goals cannot be considered achieved.
Syrianization in the cards. That probably means that the nazis will be pushed to the Polish protectorate of Lvov (like jihadi's pushed into Idlib), which will then remove the Kiev regime out of the equation completely and the ability to use it for plausible deniability actions.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 16:14 utc | 31
I'm not that sure that things go well for Russia's economy: Ruble is low, Peskov speaks openly about new privatizations. They don't oppose to a cease fire while militarly, they are at their best but an offensive will cost Russia a lot on human point of view.
Posted by: John V. Doe | Jun 16 2023 16:14 utc | 32
The question for Russia is when and with whom. Talks with only Ukraine, a mere U.S. proxy with no real say, would be insufficient. It is the U.S. government that must agree to a new security architecture in Europe. The Russian conditions for peace will be harsh and it will still take a lot of time, and many dead Ukrainians, until the U.S. agrees to them.
Russia cannot negotiate with the US either.
Not simply because of the cliched truth that the US is "Not Agreement Capable" but because if Russia negotiates with the US on the fate of Ukraine it will be acknowledging that the US dictates the fate of a part of the former USSR - a part which to a large extent is a piece of Russian heritage.
For the Russians to acknowledge any such role for the US would be a defeat in itself.
Such a defeat would only set the stage for further defeats in future ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 16 2023 16:14 utc | 33
Reminds me of the Russian push on Vuhledar. It seems neither armies will be capable of major gains such as the ones we saw in the south during the initial days of the invasion or Ukraine's lightning offensive in Kharkiv last September. Likely this will become a medium-intensity frozen conflict.
Posted by: Grey Zone Chronicles | Jun 16 2023 16:20 utc | 34
Commenting on Feral Finster | Jun 16 2023 15:27 utc | 14
As far as I see it, the only possibly attaianable Ukrainian victory at present would be taking the ZNPP, now quite reachable by infantry. Better yet if they destroy it and (guess what?) blame the Russians.
Posted by: Sektion2B | Jun 16 2023 16:24 utc | 35
There won‘t be any meaningful peace negotiations until Washington is bankrupt.
B. Thank you for posting that diagram from FM100. It describes defense-in-depth simply. Petri pointed out above that the trenches were just tank traps, because defensive lines aren‘t linear since Kursk 1943 :)
Posted by: Exile | Jun 16 2023 16:25 utc | 36
... and they are already setting it up:
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 16 2023 16:11 utc | 30
Posted by: Sektion2B | Jun 16 2023 16:26 utc | 37
Aslangeo | Jun 16 2023 15:20 utc | 11
General Melchett is alive and well and writing for the Guardian:
“The movement towards Mariupol, infamous for the devastation visited upon it in the first months of the full-scale invasion, is still incremental, with the front said to have been pushed back by about a kilometre.”
Posted by: geoff chambers | Jun 16 2023 16:33 utc | 38
"There won‘t be any meaningful peace negotiations until Washington is bankrupt."
Washington is not going to go bankrupt any time soon. For one thing, all US debts are denominated in US dollars.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jun 16 2023 16:33 utc | 39
Richard Stephen Hack's object of adoration, the sack of rancid blubber Martyanov, has been slandering the likes of Sladkov and Kots on his blog. Meanwhile, this is what Simplicius76 says happened [Source: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-61523-kakhovka-powerplay-heats ] :
Sladkov on the closed part of the meeting with the Supreme Leader: The closed part of the conversation was devoted to the problems of the warring units. The President marked a lot of things in his notebook both in the first part and in the second, and commented several times: - "Wow, I didn't know about this"... - — This is the first time I've heard about this"... - "I 'll call the Defense Ministry today and discuss it with them" ... Only once the President said harshly " no"when one of us asked to equalize cash payments for all regions. Putin replied: "We are Russia, not Ukraine, we are a state, not a regime, and I am not being ironic or joking. There is a law, these are voluntary payments of each region to its mobilized people, we have no right to order them..."
So, the people (Hack's love) Martyanov routinely libels as self serving scammers actually get to talk to Putin and tell him the problems of the troops at the front. No wonder Martyanov mostly babbles about movies and music these days.
If I'm right in my guess that Hack is Larchmonter445, then his other demigod the Faker spent years claiming Russia had no obligation to protect Syria from Zionistan either; yet the same Simplicius76 article says that Syrian troops, probably from General Suheil al Hassan's Tiger Forces brigade (which liberated East Aleppo) are fighting alongside the 76th and 98th VDV at Kremennaya. Fortunately the Syrians have more loyalty and gratitude than the Faker.
All in all, not a good time for Hack. Boo hoo.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 16 2023 16:39 utc | 40
Not simply because of the cliched truth that the US is "Not Agreement Capable" but because if Russia negotiates with the US on the fate of Ukraine it will be acknowledging that the US dictates the fate of a part of the former USSR - a part which to a large extent is a piece of Russian heritage.For the Russians to acknowledge any such role for the US would be a defeat in itself.
Such a defeat would only set the stage for further defeats in future ...[Emphasis added.]
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 16 2023 16:14 utc | 34
What's to say that Russia wouldn't "negotiate" by insisting on terms that would protect (as much as possible in this insane world) her security? Why should accepting the US's wishes on minor matters be considered a defeat?
Posted by: David Levin | Jun 16 2023 16:47 utc | 41
And still no sign of Inkanazi 1969 either. Maybe he's off getting swastika tattooed before heading to join the Ukranazi Foreign Legion.
Oh, right, he won't. I've only been challenging him to do it for 16 months now.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 16 2023 16:47 utc | 42
Is the US agreement possible at all?
As a young child in the US of A, I learned that the US signed pacts with Amerindian praerie nations that were to be valid "as long as the byffalio roames and the sun shines", the first thing they then did was to try to extinguish the buffalo (American bison heards), But couldt the dearh-culters of the US of A extinguish the flames of the sun?
Is there any international agreement or treaty signed by the Washington D,C, regime that has not bee fiolated, abriged and briken when the fascist racist rulers of the uanty-democratic republic withaout a name (the "us") have seen it fit to renegate on and betray their own wods internationally when it so fits them?
The Brits and Zionistic racist for their part at least have always put in dubious clauses .. but not thair wild North American inheritors.
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 16 2023 16:49 utc | 43
You can see the radar of Patriot missile batteries from space. This suggests that Patriot missiles are better used against countries that do not have satellites.
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 16 2023 16:49 utc | 44
Washington is not going to go bankrupt any time soon. For one thing, all US debts are denominated in US dollars. Posted by: Feral Finster | Jun 16 2023 16:33 utc | 40
———————————————
what interest rate would the Feds need to pay to sell new debt in your lavish money printing scenario ?
Next year, interest payments will be around 25% of revenues.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 16 2023 16:50 utc | 45
Aside from that, and it's purely anecdotal, seems like a lot of people on both sides of the water are more nuke friendly these days.
A lot of trolling today again.
Karaganov has been discussed in depth yesterday and here we go again: Russia is considering use of nukes !!!
Guy is a member of the Bilderberg Group (The Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission).
Now you can continue trolling about Russia’s intentions to start using nukes.
Posted by: 2+2=5 | Jun 16 2023 17:00 utc | 46
"One of its main features is to have a good speed when in reverse gear."
But of course. It's French, isn't it?
Posted by: ian | Jun 16 2023 17:01 utc | 47
Thanks b. It's just so Text Book, Russia's defensive attitude as I've mentioned before in comments. I once had the FM you showed and its complements dealing with anti-armor tactics and such. Most of the slaughter is facilitated by Russia's command of the airspace over the FEBA--AND--its fantastic EW counter measures that protect helos from Manpads. I can't imagine how horrifying it is to shoot your weapon at what seems to be a standing clay pigeon only to see your missile go astray over and over so you can do nothing to stop the incoming aside from finding a very deep hole to burrow into.
How could Ukraine collapse militarily? What steps would lead to that outcome?
1) accounts of mass surrenders
2) refusal of large units to obey orders to advance
3) mass retreats
4) foolish, delusional uses of mass troops, as around the former Bakhmut flanks
5) movements of brigades to areas of intense fighting - while effectively abandoning other areas of confrontation with Russian forces - thereby allowing sudden advances of SMO forces.
All of the above are being reported ( Military Summary). If they continue and expand, then the Ukraine military becomes nonfunctional.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 16 2023 17:05 utc | 49
Posted by: ian | Jun 16 2023 17:01 utc | 48
You really should have included next sentence, a cherry on top
"This to bail out as soon as serious counter forces are detected."
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 16 2023 17:06 utc | 50
To infinity and beyond!
Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 16 2023 15:56 utc | 27
The cannon fodder is finite God love them.
Posted by: jpc | Jun 16 2023 17:09 utc | 51
@ Skiffer | Jun 16 2023 15:42 utc | 21
thanks... i agree with you in all of that.. and yet the west continues to ramp up.. nordstream, the dam, and probably trying for the nuke plant next... we are not dealing with rational players on the side of nato - and the west.. i hope it ends, but i am having a hard time seeing it here..
Posted by: james | Jun 16 2023 17:10 utc | 53
What Russians say "We see no need to use nuclear weapons unless there is an existential threat to the nation"
What American hear "blah, blah, blah, blah, NUCLEAR WEAPONS blah, blah, blah.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 16 2023 17:10 utc | 54
Sadly, Karaganov has a good point. What is the effectiveness of MAD if the destruction is not perceived as assured by both parties?
"We can use nukes because we are exceptional, but they wouldn't dare use nukes!"
The effectiveness of the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction is rendered moot when one party exists in a deep state of delusion wherein their adversary will accept defeat without retaliation or self-defense.
I've mentioned it before: We know America is willing to use nukes because they've done it before and have shown no remorse. They will do it again. From the American perspective it is believed that Russia will fold and surrender to the West if enough pressure is applied because the Soviet Union did, and the Soviet Union was many times more powerful than Russia. If the Soviet Union could be pushed over with hardly a fight, then so can Russia.
At least that is what the "best minds" of the Empire of Delusions think. Those minds need to be changed before the escalation reaches Armageddon.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 16 2023 17:16 utc | 55
@unimperator | Jun 16 2023 16:14 utc | 32
"Putin: Nuclear weapons are created to ensure our security in the broadest sense of the word. But we have no such need [to use them], and the very fact of discussing this topic already lowers the threshold for the use of weapons. And the second part is that we have more such weapons than the NATO countries, and they know it. "
"[Western] tanks are on fire (...) They are burning. So will the F-16s. There is no doubt! But if they will be stationed at air bases outside of Ukraine and used in combat operations, we will have to look at how and where we hit those assets used in combat operations against us. This is a serious danger of further dragging NATO into this armed conflict."
"To date, 186 tanks have been lost by the Ukrainian army and 418 armored vehicles"
Posted by: rk | Jun 16 2023 17:18 utc | 56
Always excellent and beyond my paygrade -
All I know is the US as Great Satan is not hyperbole.
Posted by: gottlieb | Jun 16 2023 17:18 utc | 57
"I'm not that sure that things go well for Russia's economy..." John V. Doe@33
You are right. No country can fight a war in the modern era without subordinating the economy to military purposes. And none has ever tried.
The Russian government, for reasons which are very obvious, postpones the necessity of choosing between taking over the country's resources or allowing the wealthy, who own the economy, to continue to pursue their class interests at the nation's expense.
To continue to allow capital to flow in and out of the economy without government control is a nonsense.
In view of the fact that every unit of private property in the economy was stolen or fraudulently conveyed within the past three decades, taking back control over, for example mineral resources, manufacturing plants and labour disposition should not be difficult and is likely to prove very popular with the 99% of Russians who were swindled by the oligarchs.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 16 2023 17:18 utc | 58
The attack on Kiev today during the visit of six African states to try and initiate peace talks.
Bad timing Russia?????
Hmm!!!!
Posted by: jpc | Jun 16 2023 17:20 utc | 59
@ William Gruff | Jun 16 2023 17:16 utc | 56
thanks william.. you are much better at articulating things then me..
Posted by: james | Jun 16 2023 17:20 utc | 60
Anybody with any compassion for Slavic brethren
Dima reports (and provides video) of a UkroReich platoon ordered into the attack. As they entered the FEBA they encountered ground littered with the dead bodies of their comrades in arms. The entire platoon elected to surrender and survive.
Wagner made a fatal mistake when it announced it would take no more prisoners. RF, Putin, Valery Gerasimov, anybody with any compassion for Slavic brethren, should announce a general amnesty for UkroReich troopers who lay down their arms and accept internment in Russia for the duration of the conflict i.e. the surrendered troops will be protected by Russia and will not be exchanged to be recycled back into the conflict by the UkroReich.
I suspect such an offer / announcement will result in the complete collapse of the Potemkin army that constitutes the UAF.
The announcement should include the declaration that any officer who sends men to their certain deaths in this way for the sole purpose of achieving an "improved" Z negotiating position at the coming NATOstan conference, is guilty of murder and will be subject to prosecution at the close of the SMO.
This declaration would extend to the parquet military staffs of the NATOstan nations and to their civilian overlords up to, and including, Bidet, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland. They are all, the entire rotten stinking cabal, equally complicit in these senseless deaths.
I don't see how any competent officer can view this unending slaughter and continue to proudly bear arms as a military professional. I suspect there will be an increased number of refusals, resignations, retirements, from within the NATOstan military. Fighting a war is one thing. Being complicit in the death of uniformed civilians for the sake of Z prestige is not war - it is murder.
DIMA SOURCE:
https://youtu.be/i5MX_z1aSQM
The Ukrainians Faced New Challenges Before The Offensive. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.06.16
>>reposted from the dead thread<<
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 16 2023 17:21 utc | 61
If they continue and expand, then the Ukraine military becomes nonfunctional.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 16 2023 17:05 utc | 50
But nothing will change when the army is gone if everything else remains in place like it happens now. Look at Zely's interview on NBC today. He said Russia wants to blow up ZNPP like the dam. I'm sure Grossi went on inspection to provide more info on security measures for nato, like OSCE used to do.
Posted by: rk | Jun 16 2023 17:27 utc | 62
David G Horsman | Jun 16 2023 15:03 utc | 2
I have noticed a certain willingness to use nukes in Russia.
It isn't just Russia. Here's the prominent propaganda outfit American Enterprise Institute saying it's a splendid idea to give Ukraine nukes. For, you know, deterrence:
Posted by: samm | Jun 16 2023 17:28 utc | 63
Tank porn! Get your tank porn here!
Comprehensive analysis of the Leopard 2 by Michael at Black Mountain.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/leopards-in-ukraine?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Posted by: morongobill | Jun 16 2023 17:31 utc | 64
Pretty apt comment here sums it up, from Weeb Union's latest video:
.If you are twelve days into an offensive operation and have not made significant progress you are not doing reconnaissance by probing or reconnaissance in force, you are instead committing forces piecemeal which means you are losing.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 16 2023 17:32 utc | 65
In chinese thay say it thus:
"不失而勝"(bù' shī' ér shēng) -- i.e. winning through not being beaten.
Or also:
"无败归盛"（wü bài guī shèng）-- i.e. return to greatness when avoiding defeat".
This is something Russia has learned,
The Chinese general staff had of old Marshall Zhū Dé', who was the honorary association chief of the Chinese strategic game of Wêiqi' (known int the Atlantis nations by the Japanese name "Go". Marchal Hè Lóng led the Chinese assosciation for Chinese chess -- a game where all rules change when one leaves one's own home terrain. Marchal Dèng Xiàopíng was a passionate bridge player,
--But US presidents and high.ranking military have only practiced golf in their wee hours.
This tells us something about Chinese and Russian Chess planning of the war in the Ukraíne.
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 16 2023 17:34 utc | 66
Posted by: David Levin | Jun 16 2023 16:47 utc | 42
What's to say that Russia wouldn't "negotiate" by insisting on terms that would protect (as much as possible in this insane world) her security?
One who is truly sovereign does not negotiate in any way over that which he is sovereign over.
To do otherwise is to share sovereignty and thereby lose it.
One exerts sovereignty by demonstrating a monopoly of power so terrifying that those who wish to 'negotiate' it must stake their own existence for a place at that table.
Why should accepting the US's wishes on minor matters be considered a defeat?
This is how it always begins: Negotiating on minor matters where no negotiation was warranted to begin with.
And if one can begin negotiating away the minor things it's just a matter of time before one 'negotiates' the bigger things.
... "Not one inch eastward!"
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 16 2023 17:37 utc | 67
The question for Russia is when and with whom. Talks with only Ukraine, a mere U.S. proxy with no real say, would be insufficient. It is the U.S. government that must agree to a new security architecture in Europe. The Russian conditions for peace will be harsh and it will still take a lot of time, and many dead Ukrainians, until the U.S. agrees to them.
Ukraine will either surrender unconditionally or engage in negotiations that will result in something very like an unconditional surrender. Russia will not stoop to negotiate with the USA about the future of the Ukraine. After Russia has dealt with the Ukraine, Russia will re-offer the security agreement it offered in December 2021 -- the one Biden called a "non-starter." If it is still a "non-starter" Russia will start in on the Baltic countries, Poland or Romania and we will have a repeat of the Ukrainian SMO.
Posted by: Chas | Jun 16 2023 17:38 utc | 68
Those of us of a certain age will recall the Pentagon‘s obession with Neutron Bombs . It’s worth revisiting whenever the topic of tactical nukes arises.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_bomb
Posted by: Exile | Jun 16 2023 17:39 utc | 69
re: William Gruff | Jun 16 2023 17:16 utc | 56
I agree with your statement that "The effectiveness of the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction is rendered moot when one party exists in a deep state of delusion wherein their adversary will accept defeat without retaliation or self-defense."
Nuclear deterrence requires rational behavior on the part of all parties involved. If you believe you are invulnerable (for example, if you believe in US Nuclear Primacy ) or you have no fear of death (if you are delusional, or do not fear death), then nuclear deterrence is not a reliable deterrent.
It is my impression that the neocon ideologues running US foreign policy are drunk with hubris and believe their own propaganda. They believe that they can make Russia "back down". They blew up the Nord Stream pipelines and used their MSM to hide it; why would they think the could not do the same with a nuclear false flag? There is one small problem, though -- the Russians will know who did it.
The threat or use of nuclear weapons, in itself, provides no protection against an attack.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 16 2023 17:50 utc | 70
History is an account, mostly false, of events, mostly unimportant, which are brought about by rulers, mostly knaves, and soldiers, mostly fools.
Ambrose Bierce
Totally true in these days.
Posted by: A. Pols | Jun 16 2023 17:54 utc | 71
It's looking more and more like the West doesn't care that this is a complete slaughter and 10 Ukrainians are getting killed for each Russian. It's that one Russian that they are happy to see dead and that is why they want this war to continue for as long as possible.
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 16 2023 15:33 utc | 17
seems odd that discussions here seem to accept official US explanations/misdirections at face value.
Instead of acknowledging the roaring success of another genocidal undertaking.
worth every taxpayer penny to the salivating multinational interests behind this.
Posted by: Not Ewe | Jun 16 2023 17:56 utc | 72
General Petraeus has always been a dope. Doubt he wrote any of the blurb in top post. He just read it. He gets paid well and would read anything for a price.
Problem is Petraeus is a typical US dope. He fits in well. None of them has a better idea than the quoted bilge. None of them has ever had to pay a price for incompetence. Or for causing those in their command to die.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 16 2023 17:58 utc | 73
Putin recently commented on the erosion of MAD as a deterrence concept. Other commenters in this thread have rightly noted that the US is outside the bounds of rational thought in how it now conceptualizes nuclear war even as a possibility. Which is a strange position Given the long talk about how trillions need to be spent to modernize the decrepit nuclear arsenal.
The topic might be the most poignant example of US leadership refusing to exist in reality. As crises pipe up with the decline and fall of the US empire, the temptation to use nukes as a solution will rise. There’s no potential US leader on the horizon of 6 years (realistically much more) who won’t consider them. Imagine a US carrier going down in the South China Sea and the media-political reaction. We all have dangerous days ahead with a failing US led by irrational old men advised by intellectual children convinced of their own invincibility.
Posted by: Lex | Jun 16 2023 18:09 utc | 74
The Leopard 2A6's greatest weaknesses are the poor protection of the sides and the upper hemisphere. He estimates that not a single armored vehicle, be it the Leopard, Abrams, or any other Western tank, will be able to withstand simultaneous high-accuracy strikes by artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, anti-tank missile systems, front-line, army, and long-range aviation - in other words, a combined fire impact. Taking all previously mentioned, it appears that his statement is correct - chances that Leopard 2 can survive the encounter with the Russian helicopters and/or the ground tank killer units are very small.
Also, the Leopard is vulnerable to artillery fire hitting any top areas.
Tactics:
The tank platoon can survive and win in battle, however, only if it is well-trained, effectively led, and highly motivated. Crews must be aggressive, and their tactics must reflect the tempo and intensity of maneuver warfare. Platoon training must prepare them to operate in hostile territory with the enemy to their front, flanks, and rear....
For many Western analysts or so-called military experts, one of the most significant aspects of the accumulating Western equipment in Ukraine is the psychological aspect (as they like to say “the world stands with Ukraine”). They also believe “the superior capabilities of the Western tanks in comparison with most Russian tanks that have been deployed in Ukraine, and the more effective Ukrainian tactics, will make a difference and bring them victory. According to them, Ukrainians already have experience, and they are arriving for a military that has been well-trained in maneuver warfare at a time when it is “clear” that the Russians are incapable of anything but frontal attacks. In particular, the ability of Leopards to stand off and fire at greater range, and superior armor in comparison with many Russian tanks may give them an edge. They also believe that the Western tanks have a better ability to operate cross-country in comparison with the lower-clearance Russian tanks and fight effectively at night. The idea embedded in the Ukrainian (or better say Western planning) is to break the Russian lines with the Western tanks and create a breach with the rest of the Ukrainian armor following the first wave.
Western analysts already see dislocating the Russians by driving a couple of hundred kilometers through Zaporozhe and getting to the Azov Sea.
Everything looks feasible on paper and when presented on TV but many Western analysts forget that it is not the Iraqi desert, El Alamein or even tank battles on the Eastern front in WWII. This time the Western equipment are facing a modern army that knows how to fight with armor and against the armor and which also has complete air superiority.
Also, once again no maneuverable air defense capable to mitigate enemy rocket or artillery or helicopters = you are screwed.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 18:16 utc | 75
After Russia has dealt with the Ukraine, Russia will re-offer the security agreement it offered in December 2021 -- the one Biden called a "non-starter." If it is still a "non-starter" Russia will start in on the Baltic countries, Poland or Romania and we will have a repeat of the Ukrainian SMO.
Posted by: Chas | Jun 16 2023 17:38 utc | 69
Well put. Thxs.
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 16 2023 18:23 utc | 76
Simplicius' new article is interesting. Everywhere where you look, Ukraine is suffering degradation in the quality of equipment, especially in tank and artillery department. The artillery is being downgraded to things like 105mm M109s, while there was only small quantity of other 155mm systems like M-777 (probably 60 % destroyed).
US is also contemplating to send M60 tanks with the 105mm guns to fill in the gaps.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 18:32 utc | 77
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 18:32 utc | 78
Meant M119, not M109...
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 18:34 utc | 78
"One of its main features is to have a good speed when in reverse gear."
But of course. It's French, isn't it?Posted by: ian | Jun 16 2023 17:01 utc | 48
Tout à fait 👏👏👏
The AMX10RC is the direct successor of the famous colonial Panhard EBR used across the globe, notably by the French Army during the Algerian War and by the Portuguese Army during the Overseas War.
In use in French Army still 1984.
So famous that a turretless Panhard EBR vehicle carried the coffin of the late French president Charles de Gaulle at his state funeral.
Have a look...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panhard_EBR
It is a particular trait of French reconnaissance vehicles to be heavily armed. From the prewar MD 178 armed with an anti-tank gun of 25 mm, (which was for the period a significant caliber for such a small vehicle) to the direct successor of the EBR, the AMX-10RC, also used for wheeled reconnaissance, and armed with a powerful 105 mm gun with automatic firing, firepower equal to a main battle tank of the 1980s.
Et, la cerise 🍒 sur le gâteau 🍰
The EBR had a crew of four, two drivers (front and rear) and a gunner and a commander
Yes, you read that right.
There were two drivers and also two steering positions, one at each end of the machine.
There's simply a lever that sends the control to one side or the other. This machine therefore had 4 forward gears and four reverse gears, so as to escape as quickly as possible in the event of an ambush.
As we say:
Courage, fuyons....
Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 16 2023 18:44 utc | 79
As much as I'm enjoying NATO, nazis, the EU and the Biden administration made to eat crow, it is a bit sad for any poor regular Ukies getting blasted if they didn't volunteer.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 16 2023 18:45 utc | 80
@ A. Pols | Jun 16 2023 17:54 utc | 72
I appreciate the Bierce quote. The USA has produced a few social critics worthy of note: Bierce, Mencken, Vidal, Vonnegut, and (with reservations) Philip Wylie. One could add George Carlin and Frank Zappa to the list.
A shame the public ignored them all by considering them entertainers.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 16 2023 18:47 utc | 81
There is a world of difference between trained troops and seasoned troops. This presumably explains why Ukraine has already fielded NATO-trained troops from well before the 'counter-offensive.
'
Perhaps the AMX-10 was intended to be used as a tank-destroyer, not as a tank but they were caught on the hop.
The Leopard 2 : you'd expect it to be used as a breakthrough/exploitation force, not just to pin, or hope to pin, the Russian defences.
Posted by: DilNir | Jun 16 2023 18:48 utc | 82
james: I’m having trouble regarding nuclear chicken with a demonstrably insane opponent as a viable strategy.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 16 2023 18:49 utc | 83
If the Ukraine has already lost so many tanks, why aren't the Russians publishing more of the photos? I think even Z boosters find the numbers claimed a bit incredible.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 18:50 utc | 84
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jun 16 2023 16:39 utc | 41
############
Please grow up.
You seem to find it interesting to call out people you have never met, and who probably could care less what you have to say. It is a poor commentary and entirely self-serving on your part. No one is gaining any insight or clarity from these hyperbolic and insulting comments.
Please respect the bar by not vomiting on the counter every couple of days.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 16 2023 18:51 utc | 85
catdog: Regardless of whether the Russian MoD numbers are correct, it‘s always worth noting that the SMO is not beind conducted for your entertainment.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 16 2023 18:53 utc | 86
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 18:50 utc | 85
##############
I'm going to assume that you're Western. Photos don't matter. The Russians have nothing to prove to anyone. Their job is to accomplish the objectives of the SMO, not to provide documentary evidence to the world.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 16 2023 18:57 utc | 87
Per released evidence of destroyed stuff, you can only quote Stalin:
"One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 16 2023 18:57 utc | 88
@ Lex | Jun 16 2023 18:09 utc | 75
Imagine a US carrier going down in the South China Sea and the media-political reaction. We all have dangerous days ahead with a failing US led by irrational old men advised by intellectual children convinced of their own invincibility.
Well put. Except Biden is really of a mind of a a rotten snake, going demented. He is not irrational. He is dangerous.
However, one can only hope that in case of sinking of a US carrier, American folk could also turn against Washington, instead to outwards aggression.
A way they will choose, it is the way it is going to be.
Point is, USA is not ready for a war, let alone two at once.
When talking on nukes, I have a problem with a constant reiterating, ending that as nukemongering. It is a Western narrative never ending story. Why contribute to it?
If you ignore the problem, problem goes away.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 16 2023 18:58 utc | 89
We have already seen similar attacks when Steinmeier visited Kyiv, but the most epic thing was to see Zelensky walking with Biden to the sound of an air siren. Everyone knows perfectly well that Kyiv is not attacked with delegations of foreign leaders, but here is the closest partner of the Kremlin.Just today, the press secretary of the President of South Africa announced this publicly, and it is already becoming ridiculous, so to discredit yourself? By the way, in the photo and video that the General Staff published, you can see empty explosions from air defense missiles, and the report on 6 daggers shot down makes the whole production absurd.
"This was the time when the so-called explosion took place. I filmed a video from a hotel here in Kiev. It is very strange that we did not hear or see an explosion. There is clearly some kind of deliberate disinformation being spread here. As we expected, this mission never will not be easy, but some obstacles are deeply disturbing, for example, the appeal that you all received, while others are just funny, for example, this so-called explosion," Magvenya said.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18339
Colleagues, today we have already found out that the whole performance with alleged strikes on Kyiv is an attempt by Bankova to demonstrate to the guests the atmosphere of a military city and nothing more.Also, this is an attempt to again light up in the world media and blame the Russians.
The authorities do not pay attention to the people and the fact that these fake air raid alerts bring difficulties to people, driving them into depression and other difficulties. In fact, the authorities use Ukrainians in the dark for their own personal goals.
The only moment is that this time the guests decided not to be silent and play along with Kyiv, but rather discredited his actions to the whole world, calling them manipulation.
This is a good example when your "PR campaign" becomes a shambles for you.
Now a logical question arises, what if the Office of the President is lying to Ukrainians and the world in everything, covering up their “skins”. Have the guys played on Bankovaya?
https://t.me/legitimniy/15644
Posted by: Down South | Jun 16 2023 19:09 utc | 90
How the West treats Ukraine can be understood from loans at 6%, but the worst thing is the fact that we are not expected there. They destroyed the country, reduced the population and left Ukrainians without a future, as a result of the struggle for Western values.Ukraine will not receive an invitation to NATO at the July summit in Vilnius - Secretary General of the Alliance
“But we will discuss how we can bring Ukraine closer to NATO,” said Jens Stoltenberg.
He also added that the doors of NATO remain open for Ukraine.
P.S. We should be honest, we still received the main thing from the West, now our children will be taught LGBT values, and in Ukraine it will be possible to register marriages of non-traditional families.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18344
Posted by: Down South | Jun 16 2023 19:11 utc | 91
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 16 2023 18:53 utc | 87
Weak. You're here talking about the war same as everyone else.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 19:12 utc | 92
How beautifully the West hung the Office of the President, now it will be hard for Zelensky to refuse to travel to the summit. Bankova has stated many times that the leader of Ukraine will not go to Vilnius unless the exact plan for joining NATO is announced.The first meeting of the new Ukraine-NATO Council may be held in Vilnius with the participation of Zelensky.
This was stated by Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“We are working on the creation of a new NATO-Ukraine Council, where Ukraine will be equal to NATO allies, will consult and make decisions of common interest.
Our ambition is to have the first meeting of the new Council in Vilnius together with President Zelensky,” Stoltenberg said.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18345
Posted by: Down South | Jun 16 2023 19:12 utc | 93
If Ukraine lost 186 tanks and 418 armored vehicles - but still continues the offensive - then horror must follow. If they keep losing armor,they will have no alternative but human wave attacks especially to clear minefields. I cannot imagine any Western allied nation doing such a thing but there are reports that, in fact, Ukraine has already done this. "To the last Ukrainian" was supposed to be just hyperbole, not a real strategy.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 16 2023 19:13 utc | 94
If the Ukraine has already lost so many tanks, why aren't the Russians publishing more of the photos?
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 18:50 utc | 85
Why should they? Are you going to vote V.V. Putin if they do?
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 16 2023 19:17 utc | 95
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 16 2023 19:13 utc | 95
Indeed, if Ukraine has lost almost 200 tanks and taken over 10k casualties in less than two weeks, it has major implications for the war. IIRC that's about as many tanks as Ukraine had earmarked for the offensive, total. Is it possible that they've lost almost 100% of their tanks, even though half the NATO brigades haven't even seen combat yet? Doubtful. Why is the Russian MOD torpedoing their credibility with such outrageous claims?
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 19:19 utc | 96
@ malenkov | Jun 16 2023 18:53 utc | 87
I gotta say that comfortably encamped in America it is entertaining as hell watching the economic and societal destruction of our cushy oil and debt dependant society slowly coming apart. From my vantage point as a semi-retired supermarket cashier it's in the rocketing prices of groceries and the zombie-like myopic actions of the populace. They have no idea of what is happening. Dumb, ignorant, and worse off with each passing month. A show they are starring in without knowing they are on stage.
I have an AK, lotsa ammo and have goat milking and turnip growing down pat. My man Putin's gonna crash this POA country without wasting a single bullet on us. So yes, that's entertainment. I only wish the kill ratio would be in the hundreds to one. My heart goes out to Russian families of the fallen and injured.
Posted by: comrade simba | Jun 16 2023 19:19 utc | 97
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 16 2023 19:17 utc | 96
It would make their claims believable, because the numbers they're claiming are unbelievable. It's unlikely that Ukraine has even sent so many vehicles into combat so far.
Posted by: catdog | Jun 16 2023 19:21 utc | 98
The big satan will be defeated along with little satan
No one mocks God
Posted by: gringo | Jun 16 2023 19:23 utc | 99
Passerby (96)
You are not counting the losses behind the lines. Russia has been destroying the troop concentrations behind the lines with missile attacks every single night. Ukraine's losses from these attacks are likely worse than their losses on the line.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Jun 16 2023 19:25 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The fog of war has been replaced with denial of reality.
It's a demented obscenity by the Ukrainians at this point.
Posted by: jpc | Jun 16 2023 14:55 utc | 1