Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 24, 2023
On Prigozhin’s Insurrection Farce

Some thoughts on the ongoing insurrection attempt in Russia.

I wonder who or what lured Yevgeny Prigozhin into staging this farce.

In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.

'Western' anal-cysts will spend weeks fantasizing about their wished for outcome which, of course, was never to happen.

The whole story reminds me of Machiavelli's warning against mercenaries:

I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed.

Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and [one’s own] destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, that they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. …

I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms [i.e., mercenaries]. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain [i.e., the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are ruined in the usual way [i.e., you will lose the war].

Comments

One thing which isn’t clear to me is why Putin and others demand to suppress the mutiny without negotiations. If Chechens who enter Rostov now are going to shoot the wagnerites in the centre of the city, this would cause many questions among ordinary people. It would create an image where Chechens kill Russians and this would trigger a lot of anger towards the Chechens and Putin in the end. The actions of Russian government are totally inadequate. The fact that neither Putin nor Shoigu want to discuss anything with Prigozhin might mean that Wagner, indeed, was attacked by Russian army and this whole thing was expected and planned by ruling elites to find the way out of Ukraine. Just another agreement with the West. I really hope it’s not the case though. Also, for maskirovka it looks too elaborate with unclear dividends in the future.

Posted by: Yuri | Jun 24 2023 12:18 utc | 101

Posted by: Brannagyn | Jun 24 2023 12:14 utc | 108
There’s one elephant in the room people should keep in mind, which is probably one of Prighozin’s motives. Ukraine is now FULLY mobilized. They get hundreds of thousands more people. They are also fully backed by Nato. Prighozin is probably frustrated with the limited special operation scope. And some people are calling for full mobilization in Russia too, accompanied by further war production expansion. This of course is far from Putin’s plans.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 12:21 utc | 102

This probably best place in this thread I guess.

“March of justice” PMC “Wagner” to Moscow
that is known as of 15.00 (local)
Columns of PMC “Wagner” passed the village of Yelets in the Lipetsk region . Information about the total number of vehicles and personnel in the columns varies – someone talks about 150 pieces of equipment, someone – about 400 units in four separate columns.
▪️From Yelets to Moscow , 340 kilometers in a straight line, without taking into account the terrain and roadblocks. The main checkpoints and positions of law enforcement agencies are located near the bridge across the Oka at the entrances to Moscow and on the M4 highway.
▪️Some speakers and individuals now declare in the media about the need to introduce martial law, then they refute themselves. Roskomnadzor’s statements do not add clarity: despite interruptions in the work of Telegram, the RKN declares that there are no blocks. But at the same time, they make clarifications that this is possible in the areas of the CTO (which now includes Moscow).
▪️PMC detachments did not enter Voronezh itself – some moved to a detour through the east of the region, and some along the bypass road. Footage of the Ka-52 operating with the Vikhr complexes using the PMC technique appeared on the Web, but it is not known exactly when the incident occurred.
▪️At the entrance to Rostov-on-Don, Chechen detachments “Akhmat” were seen, which were sent to disperse the rebels. The work of the headquarters of the Southern Military District continues as usual: PMC detachments blocked only the approaches to it and demanded that local residents not come closer than 2 km to the building. An explosive package was used to disperse the crowds, several warning shots were fired into the air.
▪️Detachments of PMCs blocked the entrance to the city from Taganrog.
https://t.me/rybar/48940
associated map|info graphic: https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/24/20230624150207-adccc962.jpg

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 12:24 utc | 103

This makes no sense to me. Who is going to pay the Wagner fighters? Where will they get food and ammunition? Twenty five thousand troops cannot overthrow the government. I think that Prigozin has provided Ukraine with its greatest PR victory of this war. Ukraine needed some victory before the NATO conference in order to be provided with more money and weapons, they have got it. This action by Prizogin has extended the war for years. I don’t think that Putin should have allowed Prizogin to take such a prominent role in the war but that is water under the bridge. He needs to deal with this matter decisively or the Russian state might suffer serious consequences. He also needs to treat the Ukraine situation as the war that it is and fight it like a war.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Jun 24 2023 12:28 utc | 104

I would like to point out that there really are traitors in the Russian MoD. “Parquet generals”, as Putin calls them. I would call them middle-class delusionals who still cling to the same American Dream Delusion that motivated useless fantasy-dwelling office managers to dissolve the Soviet Union. These are people who raise their children to be gay, worship Obama, and only watch American news and entertainment. They decry the loss of McDonald’s burger chain and refuse to eat at its successor, not because the food is any different but because the logo has changed. In the tragically fey delusion world these people inhabit, the logo is more important than the product it is applied to; form and appearance trump substance.
These individuals do not even remotely understand why the SMO is happening. They believe Russia becoming a vassal of the US and being Americanized would be a good thing. They reject reports from the Ukraine of Nazi atrocities as “communist propaganda” in order to keep their delusional worldview pure. While these bureaucrats do not contribute anything productive to society, they are in positions that allow them to sandbag and sabotage state efforts to accomplish anything by holding up the paperwork or submitting paperwork with deliberate mistakes (simple addressing “mistake” that routes a boxcar of toilet paper to Kamchatka instead of Donetsk, for instance).
Stalin would know how to handle these types, but Putin is no Stalin. Likewise Mao would know how to handle these delusionals: send them out to the countryside to do shit work for the “little people” until they develop calluses and a hint of personal character, but most importantly until they lose their narcissistic delusions and form a connection to the real world. Knock them off their arrogant high horse and make being a “servant of the people” take on real, delusion-defying concrete meaning.
I have no idea if Prighozin’s revolution theater is intended to focus attention on these traitors, but the traitors certainly do exist and are certain to be responsible for some of the problems in Russia’s SMO. If the conflict develops into a wider one directly against NATO then these individuals will have to be dealt with one way or another.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 12:30 utc | 105

Igor Strelkov on the mutiny:

In the current situation, every honest officer who remembers his Oath is obliged to resist the mutineers. Regardless of his opinion about the incumbent president, defense minister, etc.

Guess what: not every person criticizing Russia’s military leadership wants a mutiny.

Posted by: S | Jun 24 2023 12:31 utc | 106

Now we know where that 6.2 billion in USD that the Pentagon ‘found’ went. This is incredible, we are witnessing the fall of the modern Russian state. India, China, Brazil, and the rest of the “BRICS” nations must be crapping their pants. No one can stand up to the American dollar. No one. Everyone has a price. If the other BRICS nations get too uppity like Russia, the US will destabilize them too. Scary time to be alive.

Posted by: bored | Jun 24 2023 12:32 utc | 107

Ukraine needed some victory before the NATO conference in order to be provided with more money and weapons, they have got it.
Posted by: Curious Passerby | Jun 24 2023 12:28 utc | 119
They will get more money and weapons regardless of what they do on the field. As long as they exist in the current configuration they will be used exactly like they were used since 2014, as a terrorist proxy thing.

Posted by: rk | Jun 24 2023 12:35 utc | 108

I’ve lived through two coups in Thailand.
These are normally very well organised – way ahead of time. The faint giveaways are the occasional troop movement ‘on rotation’. The final hurrah are the tanks moving into Bangkok. No-one trapses all the way from southern Thailand on a long march. This would be lunacy. The final stage of a well-planned Thai coup is completed before midnight on the main day.
With the Russian Presidential plane having departed Moscow, who is actually staging a coup?
What roles do Wagners and Akhmat play?

Posted by: dnomsed | Jun 24 2023 12:40 utc | 109

William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 11:35 utc | 85
So whatever is going on with Wagner, the entire officer corps is onboard with it
Well, if treason is what’s going on, we’ll know when Putin rescinds Russia’s moratorium on capital punishment and reminds Victoria Nuland that execution is the penalty.

Posted by: john | Jun 24 2023 12:41 utc | 110

Money, the MOD stopped paying Wagner to force them to sign contracts with the MOD.
Posted by: Gerard | Jun 24 2023 9:15 utc | 15
Perhaps for the troopers it is really just a salary dispute. Pay up and they will settle down.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 24 2023 12:42 utc | 111

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 12:21 utc | 112
I’d be interested to know how this method of action on Prighozin’s part serves to achieves those goals though, without also simultaneously undermining some of the geopolitical gains that were made as part of say the ‘slower motion’ strat thus far – assuming he’s even ‘successful’? I don’t get the angle, but maybe I have a failure of imagination.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 12:44 utc | 112

Master trolling as I thought when it happened with the ammo shortage.
I open the following bets:
A- A rebellion is ongoing now aka what you see is what is real.
B- This is first grade trolling to avoid the spring counteroffensive from halting and stoping the demilitarization process aka Lets keep pushing there is civil war on their side.
C- This a major planned operation a la Erdogan to uproot any 5th 6th carpet general as eluded to by the president in his interview with the social media reporters. Aka catch the monkey while threatning the chicken. The jester is willing to be a scapegoat for now to attract all the wanted targets for clear and unequivocal betrayal.
@bar Ladies and gentlemen start your bets

Posted by: Tacitus | Jun 24 2023 12:45 utc | 113

My tuppence-worth:
This little Priggy went to bargain
But little Priggy’s sponsors stayed at home
This little Piggy had a huge ‘beef’
But now Priggy’s sponsor had gone
So this little Priggy cried wee wee wee all the way to Rostov-On-Don.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Jun 24 2023 12:46 utc | 114

this reminds me of the Businessman’s Plot in the US in the 1930’s, and also of assertions that there are still pro western elements in Russia that want to return to the glorious looting of the 1990’s. to all these mysterious new posters (maybe it’s 3 or 4 really) who are loudly proclaiming victory for NATO, in effect–eff off and die. he’s a merc, in the end, we all know who is paying him, even if there are cutouts involved, just like we all know who is responsible for the blowing up the pipeline. this strutting fool is even repeating NATO talking points to justify this deadly farce.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 12:47 utc | 115

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 24 2023 11:46 utc | 46
What’s the consensus here, did this start with Prigozhin claiming that MoD’s own forces fired on Wagner, killing many of their people? It’s really saying something that that’s a plausible enough claim.
For what it’s worth, if there is any substance to current reports, I can’t see where Prigozhin thinks this is going. Perhaps he was attacked with the intention of provoking him into an ill-considered response; killing his guys would be almost certain to produce that outcome. Whatever, the action is still crazy and doomed.
Prigozhin railing against MoD ineptitude (Kakhovka Dam, anyone) only goes so far. Reform would have to be imposed from above and there’s no indication of the political will to go beyond the current status quo.
The absurd elevation of Aleksandr Lapin might be seen as a rather graphic demonstration that the risks and opportunities of the ongoing conflict have caused the schemers and pigeons within RF MoD to circle their wagons, leaving less scope for reform that at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
If there are moves behind the scenes to freeze the conflict and / or the General Staff thinking they can handle everything from here, there are many who would be relieved to bury Wagner once and for all.
Atavistic mythologising of RF General Staff is for unreconstructed careerists hoping to score a promotion, patrons are under no obligation to indulge it at the bar.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 24 2023 12:48 utc | 116

sry but to me this all sounds like circus. Out of control Ukr. show might be invovled. But most of this is cosmetics.

Posted by: AG | Jun 24 2023 12:48 utc | 117

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 11:31 utc | 83
Have you ever actually thought for more than a nanosecond that in 2014 Putin did not have the weapons or resources for a full scale war.
ukraine’s army in 2014 would have lasted no more than a few hours. in fact their army would have deserted / switched sides while the political issue of Yanukovich’s removal (and the “suicide” by his entire cabinet) was still hot.
Posted by: cafe con leche | Jun 24 2023 11:43 utc | 89
And the following economic sanctions might have had the desired effect of wrecking the Russian economy.
Maybe the Russian leadership made a mistake. But maybe not. They decided to err on the side of caution.
Unlike you, they are accountable to the Russian population.
What is that saying about problems again? Every complex problem has a simple, obvious – and wrong – solution.
Most often, complex problems have complex solutions.
I remember discussions in 2014 that the West wanted Russia to solve the issue in Ukraine militarily. Some people argued that Ukraine was meant as a poison pill. So what if the Ukrainian army switched sides? (They actually did change sides – they fought on the side of the Donbass republics, the Crimean parts went over to Russia – the other side were the oligarch financed volunteer batallions.)
If Russia had gone into Ukraine. Russia would’ve been stuck with Ukraine’s endemic corruption, corrupt army, corrupt elites. And a NATO financed Guerilla war. Russia was already dealing with Crimea. That was huge effort they had taken on, and it was a financial drain – but they were both willing and able to do that. While removing many of the old elites in Crimea from power. Doing so for the rest of Ukraine was beyond their means – the Ukrainian elites would’ve sucked them dry.
Maybe not doing it 2014 was a mistake. But Putin cannot go back to correct it. He can only try to do so today.

Posted by: Martina | Jun 24 2023 12:51 utc | 118

If Western intelligence is behind this the you have to say they did a magnificent job making Russia look bad. They are experts at handing bags of money off to the right people to get things done.
Like a simmering stew that is unattended this burned the pot. Is the average patriotic Russian going to get on board with this? I doubt it. Pulling 25,000 convicts out of prison and arming them may not have been the brightest idea. Any reports of looting?

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 24 2023 12:52 utc | 119

I am truly tired of reading accusations about Russia and or Putin being corrupt. I don’t expect things to be perfect or free from defect but this topic is deeply tiresome.
I clearly recall how the Panama Papers clearly showed corruption across the world allied with the West. I also recall how NPR kept repeating, “Putin, Putin” – after briefly admitting that there was no substance there.
By all means, if you can show a gold toilet seat or stocks in Putin’s name or a Cayman bank account, please do. Or maybe some gymnast dancing girls around Shoigu.
The economy of force and weapons procurement in Russia is astounding – and an example for the globe. Vastly different from ceaseless Pentagon overruns and 3K toilets. Some years back, Ernst and Young found that Russia really wasn’t very corrupt.
Prigozhin has already been exposed as a public liar. Perhaps he’s confabulating just like Biden and Hillary.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 24 2023 12:56 utc | 120

The presidential plane was apparently heading towards Saint Petersburg.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672572256210374656

Posted by: Morene Lagneau | Jun 24 2023 12:56 utc | 121

India, China, Brazil, and the rest of the “BRICS” nations must be crapping their pants.
Posted by: bored | Jun 24 2023 12:32 utc | 125
Crapping is too much but India has already chosen US. They have created INDUS-X and various other tricks during Modi’s ass kissing visit to US. The biggest boo-boo is that US gets permanent ports in India for repairs and stuff (idrw.org/defence-cooperation-india-to-place-liaison-officers-in-us-commands/) which is something Russia did not like very much (tass.com/politics/1637125)
They’ve extended warship repairs in Japan too (asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-turns-to-private-Japan-shipyards-for-faster-warship-repairs)

Posted by: rk | Jun 24 2023 12:58 utc | 122

What does Prigozhin want?
I see some NATO and NAFO trolls here are rejoicing at Russia’s perceived misfortune. They may be unwilling to see the big picture.
Russia today is deciding on Ukraine’s right to exists. Whatever happens in Rostov and to Prigozhin, the outcome may be the same: 404 delenda est.
This morning I have been asking friends, what does Prigozhin actually want? They all agreed, an end of the fake “SMO”, mobilization, a start of a real war, and ultimately, the deletion of “Ukraine”.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 24 2023 13:00 utc | 123

On 23 June, FSB released footage of an arrest they made of smugglers attempting to smuggle Cesium-137 out of Russia.
From RT:
‘The Russian Security Service (FSB) has reported arresting a group of would-be smugglers of the radioactive isotope Cesium-137. It claimed that if the operation had been successful, the dangerous material would have been used in a provocation stunt against Russia in the Ukraine conflict zone.
Five individuals were caught by FSB agents, with support from Interior Ministry officers, the statement reported. The group was acting “with coordination by a Ukrainian citizen” and was willing to pay $3.5 million for one kilogram of the product, it said.
Footage released by the service showed the scene of the purported exchange. The buyers were presented with a heavy container that required four men to carry and put inside a car trunk. Officers subsequently went in to make arrests. Parts of the video were blurred to hide the faces of those involved.
The foreign party that sought to procure Cesium-137 in Russia intended to use it “to conduct an information-propaganda campaign to discredit the country internationally by staging scenes of the use of weapons of mass destruction,” the statement claimed.’
This farce then happens directly afterwards, making it easy for the FSB to call for a CTO in Russia. (… assuming a CTO has been called…).
Are they related?

Posted by: Whatsaysyou | Jun 24 2023 13:09 utc | 124

Putin is clearly not a war time leader. His dithering led to Russia losing the military initiative in Syria and created an opening for U.S. troops to become entrenched in the country. In Ukraine, his ham-handed SMO has not gone to plan and in my opinion Russia cannot impose her will on Ukraine and NATO. Russia needs new, dynamic leadership and fresh ideas.

Posted by: Jay O | Jun 24 2023 13:10 utc | 125

Has anyone mentioned the possibility that the strike on Wagner was real but was done by Ukraine/NATO? To start this insurrection given the friction between Wagner and MOD.

Posted by: BB | Jun 24 2023 13:12 utc | 126

The whole British and US system of manipulation has probably taken advantage of Prigozin’s big mouth via Russian individuals with double labels in order to excite this dog without restraint.

Posted by: Fuusible | Jun 24 2023 13:13 utc | 127

The Wagner Group has now reached the Lipetsk region.
Moscow by midnight?
I think the odds are low they will get into Moscow, but it is hard to say it’s impossible given what has happened in the last 24 hours.

Posted by: Tim2 | Jun 24 2023 13:21 utc | 128

I agree with B’s point re. risk of mercenary forces, but
1) In a sense, all regular military are mercenary
2) This is not mercenary force in the intended meaning of the word – that would be a collection of fighting proffesionals from any place and with no loyalties.
Anyway, it is unclear whats up. Most likely will have an acceptable even positive outcome.
Or maybe not, time will tell.
One posibilty among many is this was planned to reveal cia collaborators and otherwise disloyal. Sadly, seems that did not happen.
Another would be that Prigors has simply lost his marbles and the Wagner fighters are very loyal.

Posted by: jared | Jun 24 2023 13:22 utc | 129

At the same time ( more or less)
Zelensky Accuses Russia of Plotting ‘Terrorist Act’ at Nuclear Plant
https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-accuses-russia-terrorist-attack-zaporizhzhia-1808451
which has GOT to be Z prepping for Ukrainian false flag attack on Zaporizhzhia
too many coincidences not to see a multi-prong plan afoot.
Meanwhile, as American schoolchildren are being taught to question their gender, their “Western” heritage and American institutions,
THE RISING GENERATION: WILL OUR CHILDREN DEFEND AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND JEWISH CIVILIZATION?
https://www.jewishleadershipconference.org

Posted by: ChasMark | Jun 24 2023 13:23 utc | 130

Are the Russians about to have a Spanish Armada moment? What a colossal fuck up.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 24 2023 13:26 utc | 131

My impression is that the Russian military decided, now that the ‘Great Ukrainian Counter-Offensive’ is on the back-foot, that it was time to lance this Prigozhin boil. They don’t need any such problems during their upcoming offensive actions against Ukraine.
Prigozhin’s actions look to me to be an attempt to ‘save his skin’.
Ukraine’s delight at this affair should be tempered with the realization that the Russian military has decided to ‘clear the decks’ before launching their own offensive.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jun 24 2023 13:27 utc | 132

Ritter says Prigozhin is definitely in the back-pocket of Nuland or western intelligence agencies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scweS4z1h_A

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 13:28 utc | 133

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 13:28 utc | 134
oh yeah. the vaunted Ukraine counteroffensive fails, so the neocons play this card. makes a lot of sense to me.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 13:30 utc | 134

BB no. 127
I think all and every possibility has been put forward now. Nothing to do except sit back and wait to see what is what.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jun 24 2023 13:30 utc | 135

This is too close to the West’s absurd wet dream, it must be designed to suck them in, just as Russia and Wagner did in Bakhmut. Seeing how Wagner is armed and supplied by the MOD, and Russia retains massive reserves in and around Moscow, there is no chance in hell a revolt could succeed. However, following the collapse of the Ukraine offensive, this is the typical time for a true Russian counter-offensive, and these attacks are typically begun with deception and efforts to confuse the enemy. Instead of Machiavelli, I recommend you quote Sun Tzu’s Art of War, because Putin is a good student of this as the war so far has demonstrated.
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

Posted by: deepblue | Jun 24 2023 13:30 utc | 136

I’m skeptical about Prigozhin having much if any support among the regular military. I think then Ukraine would be wise to offer sanctuary to any Wagner fighter in return for turning Wagner held territory over to them.
Posted by: ChasMark | Jun 24 2023 13:23 utc | 131
Meanwhile, as American schoolchildren are being taught to question their gender, their “Western” heritage and American institutions,
THE RISING GENERATION: WILL OUR CHILDREN DEFEND AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND JEWISH CIVILIZATION?

What? I thought this war was about Putin “defending” Russia from the West and America as represented by that heritage and those institutions. Only the right wing fascists of the West use this rhetoric of defending Western heritage and American institutions, and conduct their reprehensible campaign to demonize transgender people. Yet Putin insists the Fascists are on the other side.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:32 utc | 137

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 13:28 utc | 134
Possibly, Putin should have gone in harder – the slow motion approach was bound to expose fault lines domestically
I called for tactical or even strategic nuclear strikes weeks ago, and that is what should have happened to avoid this.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 24 2023 13:33 utc | 138

Putin, medvedev and kadyrov reading generic scripted statements. Prigo parading his fat ass in broad daylight in doentown Rostov.
Lol
Wake me up when something actually happens.

Posted by: Comandante | Jun 24 2023 13:34 utc | 139

Posted by: Jay O | Jun 24 2023 13:10 utc | 126
Clearly!
He is the wrong person on wrong position.
Furthermore very naive kind wannabe liberal person
believing in Merkel, Minsk 1+2 and western partners.
His Sado Maso Operation costed already to much
Russian blood and only helped western partners to
prop up ukros

Posted by: Moon2day | Jun 24 2023 13:35 utc | 140

1. India is playing both sides, as usual. Not going to be the USSA’s bitch, but like Erdogan, will take, at no cost, whatever is on offer.
2. Too much fog to see any clear picture. Putin is still Russia and a second-in-command Prig, like a Goebbels, cannot control much. Lots of talk, still a club leg cut-out.
3. Biden’s criminal Mob Family, the USSA Deep State coup against Trump get erased from public discussion. That is the play.
4. Oh, and more young people will die as old men get rich.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 24 2023 13:38 utc | 141

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jun 24 2023 13:27 utc | 133
Ukraine’s delight at this affair should be tempered with the realization that the Russian military has decided to ‘clear the decks’ before launching their own offensive.
Right, and Russia’s delight in the strength of its defense lines should be tempered with the realization that Ukraine is learning from its probing missions for its deployment of its major forces…
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 13:28 utc | 134
Ritter says Prigozhin is definitely in the back-pocket of Nuland or western intelligence agencies.
Prigozhin lead the push that finally ended a year long effort to “liberate the city of Artemovsk”, a battle everyone here touted as one that breaks the back of Ukrainian morale. But now he’s a Nuland mole?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:38 utc | 142

Could the NATO “west” be getting fed — and swallowing — a special brew of its own Karl Rove’s “created multiple realities”?
Maybe with an added possibility of removing incompetent, corrupt or excessively US-leaning officials from office in Russia itself…
Just a pity the traitor Oligarchs could not at this point be liquidated.
Most of the above does, however, depend on Prigozhin himself being genuinely loyal to Russia.
Don’t forget that, historically, at aristocratic courts there were two very different types of “fool” — and one sort was far from foolish.
Consider the prodigious amount of bullshit, shams, and contradictory claims by NATO mass-media and political ‘leaders’ for many years (on both internal and external events) … why assume the Russians are not now applying the same ‘charade’ technique against the NATO lie-machine?

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 24 2023 13:39 utc | 143

Given that the cloud of dezinformatsiya still hanging low, one other possibility came to mind.
Priogozhin has always been loyal to Putin, directing criticism only at the MOD and never mentioning the President directly. We also know there are many hardliners who are critical of Putin’s (in their opinion) overly soft leadership and tactics in responding to Western provocations. There is a possibility this ‘coup’ attempt could be used as a loyalty check for high-ranking generals and Kremlin officials to see how they line up against a perceived threat to Putin’s power (something that might have been given a higher priority with recent talk of nukes potentially coming into play).
There are at least nine possible realities that I can think of (in order of belief of likelihood:
* Negotiating tactic for Wagner’s status as contract troops
* A feint to justify full mobilisation
* A feint to lure a UKR attack
* A feint to test loyalty in the ranks
* A feint prior to a major attack by RU
* An attempt to purge corruption/incompetence in MOD
* A complete mental breakdown
* A sincere attempt to overthrow the government/start a civil war
* Prigozhin sold out to the West
My own level of belief would drop significantly after the first three, and to almost zero for the last three. However, I’m sure there are other possibilities that haven’t yet occurred to me and even the least likely scenario has to remain technically ‘possible’ no matter how wildly implausible.

Posted by: Brannagyn | Jun 24 2023 13:40 utc | 144

Well, I have every idea what to make of this.
Some of Prigozhin’s claims are rooted in the truth. Putin needed to realize a long time ago that his overly conciliatory and legalistic approach to the war was inappropriate. He should have taken the gloves off and crushed Ukraine and turned it into a blackened stump. If he had just acted more martial in the first place, none of this shit would have happened. Putin brought this upon himself.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 24 2023 13:41 utc | 145

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 24 2023 13:33 utc | 138
I called for tactical or even strategic nuclear strikes weeks ago, and that is what should have happened to avoid this.
You don’t know what you were calling for then.
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 24 2023 13:34 utc | 139
Lol. Wake me up when something actually happens.
You think this is all voguing? That tomorrow they’ll all go “Fun’s over.” and go back to normal?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:42 utc | 146

to William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 12:30 utc | 105 …
I agree.

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 24 2023 13:44 utc | 147

“Priogozhin has always been loyal to Putin, directing criticism only at the MOD and never mentioning the President directly. ”
—-
That was true up through this morning in public anyway. But in his short response this morning (you can find up thread I believe) he basically said the president’s address was supporting the ‘scumbags’ (MoD, etc) and he would not heed the presidents call to surrender.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 13:47 utc | 148

Geographically, according to Military Summary, Wagner group left camps near Lugansk and drove in two columns to the main south-north highway in Russia proper and then SOUTH, to Rostov on Don (near Azov Sea). Mind you, Moscow is up NORTH.
This does not seem like attacking authorities in Moscow. Rostov region is the main base for supply and reserves for southern front and Donetsk. The last pics (last?) that Wagner send a convoy north from Rostov on Don (there is a smaller and older Rostov too), and was stopped — with a bomb. If Prigozhin is crazy, I guess the first effort will be to separate him from “his people”.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 24 2023 13:47 utc | 149

The English state propaganda machine the BBC in melt down today pumping out as much speculation as possible, as to what will happen in Russia, so called experts on the matter are wheeled out one after the other to spout their dross on how its all over for Putin.
In reality I’d say its far to early to know for sure what’s really happening.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 13:48 utc | 150

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 24 2023 13:41 utc | 145
Some of Prigozhin’s claims are rooted in the truth. Putin needed to realize a long time ago that his overly conciliatory and legalistic approach to the war was inappropriate. He should have taken the gloves off and crushed Ukraine and turned it into a blackened stump.
Vicious rhetoric like that reminds of how the Goldwater supporters kept asking “Why don’t we just drop the Bomb on Hanoi?”, and then later the NeoCons wanting to do the same to rebel held areas of Iraq, and even Mecca.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:48 utc | 151

Posted by: Brannagyn | Jun 24 2023 13:40 utc | 144
The obviously most suspect piece of information, which could point to sell-out (lowest in the list) is that Prighozin parroted MSM lie that AFU never bombed Donbass in 8 years and discrediting the operation. Spit in the face of all the maimed and dead victims.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 13:48 utc | 152

Like most I don’t know what to make of this. My question is can what the Wagners are saying be true? Did the Russian regulars attack the Wagners? Or is it more likely that Prigozhin, along with some Wagner commanders, have gone off the deep end?

Posted by: george 1 | Jun 24 2023 13:49 utc | 153

Strangest damn “coup” I’ve ever seen. None of the moves made so far appear to serve any objective. Are the authorities even trying to fi d Prigozhin? How is clustering around Rostov going to unseat the government in Moscow? How were 25000 or even 50000 unsupported mercenary infantry going to fight the entire Russian armed forces? Why would Prigo expect sensible Wagner officers to follow him in such folly?

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 24 2023 13:50 utc | 154

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 13:48 utc | 150
The English state propaganda machine the BBC in melt down today pumping out as much speculation as possible,
And this message board isn’t?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:50 utc | 155

“However, following the collapse of the Ukraine offensive, this is the typical time for a true Russian counter-offensive, and these attacks are typically begun with deception and efforts to confuse the enemy.”
Posted by: deepblue | Jun 24 2023 13:30 utc | 136
Sorry, I missed the part where the battle of Stalingrad was preceded by Zhukov taking over military districts and advancing on Moscow.

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 24 2023 13:52 utc | 156

There is no way in nine hells this isnt staged. Sun Tzu all the way. Concerned trolls your efforts are in vain.
Z.

Posted by: Jzo | Jun 24 2023 13:58 utc | 157

Chechens are moving to Rostov.
In Rostov, some wagner have laid down weapons.
Wagner only control part of rostov, RF the rest.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 24 2023 13:59 utc | 158

Inkan1969 (155).
Oh, I don’t know, I think B tries to add a bit of parity into his articles unlike the English propaganda machine the BBC.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 13:59 utc | 159

Alina Lipp live on the streets of Rostov. Lots of candid “you are there” vids and photos, worth checking out.
Look way more like a farmer’s tractor protest than a coup or even a mutiny, more like a parade with kids all around the tanks:
@neuesausrussland
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/14787
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/14783
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/14772
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/14770

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 24 2023 14:00 utc | 160

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 13:38 utc | 142
i know you’re very excited by the possibility your neocons will realize their long dreams of breaking up Russia. I think Prigozhin got paid, maybe you get paid, too.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 14:02 utc | 161

Putin, as commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces, fucked up.
For months he has failed to sit down with Prigozhin, Shoigu and Gerasimov and admit evidence for the accusations made.
Putin has not lived up to his responsibility.
Everything that is happening now is a consequence of his personal failure.
Who is the traitor here will never be established, Prigozhin will not survive this….
@b
excuse please,have posted this text in the u-thread,please delete it there

Posted by: Oberbayer | Jun 24 2023 14:04 utc | 162

Astute mention of Machiavelli’s caution against the use of mercenaries.
But Niccólo is not a simple man: he also observed how Cesare Borgia used the brutal tyrant Ramiro d’Orco to pacify the conquered people, then slaughtered him and displayed the parts of his corpse in the city squares.
Perhaps one reason Wagner/mercenaries were hired to carry out brutal tasks was to be able to display clean hands to a subsequently conquered, pacified populace.

“This man [Cesare Borgia] in a short time restored peace and unity with the
greatest success. Afterwards the duke considered that it was not
advisable to confer such excessive authority, for he had no doubt but
that he would become odious, so he set up a court of judgment in the
country, under a most excellent president, wherein all cities had their
advocates. And because he knew that the past severity had caused some
hatred against himself, so, to clear himself in the minds of the
people, and gain them entirely to himself, he desired to show that, if
any cruelty had been practised, it had not originated with him, but in
the natural sternness of the minister. Under this pretence he took
Ramiro, and one morning caused him to be executed and left on the
piazza at Cesena with the block and a bloody knife at his side. The
barbarity of this spectacle caused the people to be at once satisfied
and dismayed.”

Posted by: ChasMark | Jun 24 2023 14:08 utc | 163

The situation seems to be becoming increasingly more clarified. The wagners told to the German reporter that they are waiting there while Prigozhin talks to someone in the defense ministry, they hope the issue will solved soon and they will go back to fight Ukraine together. They want to win the war (ulterior motive : you could say they want larger society commitment in the war to win it faster and more efficiently). They might be unaware in the case that Prigozhin could have more sinister motives. MOD/Naryshkin is probably right – they could have been tricked into this with limited information what’s going on and why it’s for
We’ll see how the situation in the town gets resolved but it needs to be resolved preferably today. There’s a good chance of that unless it goes to fighting.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 14:08 utc | 164

oh yeah. the vaunted Ukraine counteroffensive fails, so the neocons play this card. makes a lot of sense to me.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 13:30 utc | 134
If this is indeed as it appears according to that thesis, this card would have been much more devastating played against the back drop of a successfully developing Ukrainian offensive. Prig would have been riding momentum going in the direction of general criticism of the MOD. But the offensive got nowhere, and the fact that the Russian Armed Forces were performing well undermined all the arguments Prig had been making during Bakhmut about the shortcomings of the MOD. They decided to play this card anyway and it looks like desperation. But none of us know for sure what is really going on behind the scenes, or even on the stage. Let’s see how it plays out.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jun 24 2023 14:08 utc | 165

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jun 24 2023 14:08 utc | 167
of course it would. but this is the hand the neocons have, so they as usual play it regardless of the consequences, which they can’t foresee any better than the rest of us–probably worse, given their track record. no doubt they envisioned playing it in conjunction with a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, they may have even believed that the counteroffensive would be successful.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 14:12 utc | 166

Posted by: Jake the Snake | Jun 24 2023 11:37 utc | 83
They won’t. But that’s not necessary, because they have already moved most of their troops down south.
If this is a division, it’s purpose is to hide the buildup before the attack.
Again: I don’t know it is so. But I still think it’s a better bet than assuming some one you never even met is clinically insane or assuming some one is a payed by the enemy with out the slightest shred of evidence.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 24 2023 14:13 utc | 167

Posted by: Brannagyn | Jun 24 2023 13:40 utc
I’m leaning much farther down the list (6+) at this point myself, but we’ll see.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 14:14 utc | 168

Posted by: Delectable | Jun 24 2023 14:05 utc | 164
another new handle shows up. yeah, you keep thinking this is somehow going to magically make the Ukrainian offensive work. just like those wonderweapons did.

Posted by: preztelattack | Jun 24 2023 14:14 utc | 169

Prig:
I’m here with my men and my guns. Give me ammo.
RF:
Errm, nope..

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 24 2023 14:14 utc | 170

zinjanthropus | Jun 24 2023 13:52 utc | 156
At what point was The Night of the Long Knives?
(which is starting to make some sense)

Posted by: ChasMark | Jun 24 2023 14:15 utc | 171

OK here is my theory, piecing together the likely facts:
1.There is a largish fifth column in Russia, including within the military. This 5th column was supposed to take over in 2022, when Russia was supposed to collapse. It did not fall and the fifth column was not activated
2. Wagner or some of them were always part of the deal- or at least in the negotiation phase
3. The existence of this 5th column is well known to Putin and co, which is one reason for the caution re Ukraine
4. Shoigu and Gerasimov have long known or suspected Wagner of being untrustworthy, which is one reason for using them in the hard task of Bakhmut
5. Several months ago Shoigu and the MOD had hard evidence of probable treachery, given at least one senior guy had defected. They also wisely feared Priggy as a populist danger in any upcoming election for President. Now recall when priggy started talking about being president. Many on here giggled and assumed he was trolling the Ukrainians, planning to take on Zely, but i ALWAYS assumed he was talking about the Russian presidency. Thought in fact it was pretty damn obvious.
6. MOD did start to restrict munitions deliveries to Priggy, because he was no longer trusted
7. Priggy started his over the top attacks on the MOD, confirming his untrustworthy status.
8. Information about Priggy talks with Ukraine came to light and Priggy started far more damaging attacks on the MOD
9. Putin’s comments about parquet generals was essentially saying we have uncovered a nest of traitors, but for PR and morale we will just call them incompetent (which perhaps is also the case)
10. Priggy, encouraged by his new NATO paymasters, thought that the Russian defence would fail. Then Priggy would come a riding in as the saviour and deliver a coup in Russia. The one planned for 2022 that did not happen
11. The Ukrainian offensive failed and basically this coup is the last throw of the dice. Use it or lose it.
12. Having crossed the Rubicon so to speak Priggy has now gone full Ukraine

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 14:16 utc | 172

Zelensky supports Prigozhin
From TASS via Slavyangrad

Volodymyr Zelensky supported the actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner PMC, against whom a case was initiated on the fact of incitement to rebellion, and claims that Russia has shown its “weakness” against the backdrop of recent events.
On his Telegram channel, Zelensky wrote that Russia is allegedly experiencing “chaos” and “Russia’s weakness is obvious.”
Earlier, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, actually justified Prigozhin’s actions, saying that he allegedly “tells the truth to a greater extent,” in particular, about the equipment of Russian forces and the course of hostilities.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52060

Someone called The end is nigh commented:

Запомните мои слова – мы присутствуем при великолепном спектакле, развязывающем Кремлю руки и оправдывающем в глазах населения последующие действия. Варианты огромны – от всеобщей мобилизации до применения тактического ядерного оружия. Пригожин – карманный олигарх. И власти над “своим” ЧВК не имеет. Вот и все.

Translation:

“Mark my words – we are present at a magnificent spectacle that unties the hands of the Kremlin and justifies subsequent actions in the eyes of the population. The options are huge – from general mobilization to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Prigozhin is a pocket oligarch. And he has no power over “his” PMC. That’s all.”

For some reason the comment was immediately deleted and the user banned. In any case, I agree with this sentiment.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 24 2023 14:21 utc | 173

Posted by: Numbnutz | Jun 24 2023 14:17 utc | 175
And your opinion is based on what?
Nearly half of Nato attack force so far destroyed in Zaporozhye? Failed AFU attacks everywhere else on the front? AFU crumbling near Lyman, losing the remnants of a brigade in a counter-attack? Maybe they would still need to pull the moon with a tractor beam and sling it on top of London.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 14:21 utc | 174

@ Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 24 2023 13:50 utc | 154
I doubt Wagner will go all the way to Moscow, but the symbolism of even sitting 100 kms out and still standing sends a message. We don’t know what the extent of co-conspirators in the Army ranks may be.
The main issue i see, is Prighozhin is counting on blackmailing the MoD and the powers that be.
By occupying Rostov and Voronezh, he is effectively throwing a large spanner in the wheels of the SMO. Unless Putin can quickly restore order and remove all Wagner PMC, he risks jeopardising the whole frontline just as it is coming under attack from the UAF, who are sure to ramp up their offensive and capitalise from any confusion, diversion of resources or disruptions to logistics. All major supply lines to the SMO are fed though the very bases, storage facilities and axes being currently occupied, blocked or otherwise compromised by Wagner’s coup.
There is also the major issue of removing 15-25,000(?) hostile, well armed, seasoned troops by force, a job the police and Rosgvardia are not equipped to do and likely very reluctant to commit to with enthusiasm and effectiveness?
How many troops are physically stationed, ready, suitably motivated and armed to block them? It is reasonable to expect those planning a coup would not willingly march into an overwhelmingly superior force, although stranger things have happened in coups before…
It is nearly 24 hours now and the situation is far from close to being resolved. The longer it goes on, the more people will wonder about the certainty of its outcome.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 24 2023 14:23 utc | 175

they may have even believed that the counteroffensive would be successful.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 24 2023 14:12 utc | 167
My guess is that, contrary to all military logic, they did think the offensive would be successful. At least successful enough to allow this move to succeed. But, as you say, this is their hand, and it is not strong.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jun 24 2023 14:25 utc | 176

I suspect the end will come when one of the Wagner combat leadership offers Prigozhin
the Pablo Escobar choice, Plata o plomo.

Posted by: Morongobill | Jun 24 2023 14:25 utc | 177

How is clustering around Rostov going to unseat the government in Moscow?

Unclear, but Rostov is just a leverage point\hostage in this scenario due to criticality to operations in Ukraine.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 14:27 utc | 178

“The hallmark of MoA commentary is the inability to understand events and make fantastic claims with no basis in reality.”
Numbnutz (175).
Sounds more like you’re describing the Whitehouse mouthpiece and spokesperson Jake Sullivan, who often makes fantastic claims without producing the evidence to back them up.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 14:30 utc | 179

So where is Wagner supposed to get its supplies and money now?

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 24 2023 14:32 utc | 180

It is important to keep in mind when you are gazing into swirling mists and are desperate to see something, it is common to see what you want to see in that shifting fog.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 14:34 utc | 181

Well it hasn’t took long for the Western security services and useful idiot cockroaches to crawl out the woodwork on this one, this thread is infested with them. I suppose its to be expected they need something to shout about with the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi forces taking a pasting from the RF from day one of this SMO.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 14:35 utc | 182

Prigozhin’s actions over the past few months are starting to take on a darker hue now which I’ll summarize below
Prigozhin’s criticism on the Russian MOD claiming that the Russian army was weak
Prigozhin’s more recent statements claiming that Putin was misled by the MOD into declaring a SMO and that the MOD was secretly bombing the Dombas over the last several years, not Ukraine (utter bullshit)
Several Wangner officers defected to the EU countries over the past 3 months
the UK and the US constant claims that Putin’s power was slipping and that the Oligarchs were moving to remove him
the Ukrainian claim that Prigozhin supposedly offered the position of MOD troops in exchange for them abandoning Artemivsk.
I think Prigozhin was bought by the West sometime during the Spring with deal along the lines of, during the ukrainian offensive, once the Ukrianian troops break the Russian lines. flip on Russia and march on Moscow to overthrow Putin and the MOD, the West will recognize your new government. What the West didn’t plan for is for the Ukrainians to get completely wrecked by the regular Russian army and now Prigozhin is in a desperate position and his coup has been activated without the support he was planning on

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 24 2023 14:36 utc | 183

🇷🇺🇺🇦Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Orekhovsky sector situation as of 17:00 on June 24, 2023
While the whole world is watching the rebellion of the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin and the “march of justice” to Moscow, active hostilities continue at the front. And the most intense pressure falls on the Orekhovsky area .
▪️Ukrainian formations advanced 1.5 km north of Rabotino , taking up landings. Reinforcements of special forces from among the 22nd detachment of the Special Forces and the 45th detachment of the Special Forces of the Airborne Forces were transferred to the site to help the infantry units, which, under pressure from the enemy, were forced to retreat.
In the event that the Russian troops succeed in regrouping and seizing the initiative, it is possible to close the advancing enemy groups into a “cauldron” north of Rabotino – at least the RF Armed Forces have enough forces and means in the area.
▪️According to the Archangel of the Spetsnaz , a concentration of enemy infantry was revealed near Nesteryanka : after a successful fire defeat, the Ukrainian formations were dispersed.
▪️Pyatikhatki are still partly in the gray zone, partly under the control of the enemy. There is no confident control of the RF Armed Forces over the settlement, the Russian infantry is working on enemy reinforcements trying to move forward.
🔻In general, there are too many problems in the Zaporozhye direction, so the fighters, to put it mildly, do not pay much attention to the rebellious marches in the rear.
https://t.me/rybar/48956

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 14:39 utc | 184

One thing is certain:
If this is *not* a exceptionally well executed display of maskirova in order to draw in the Natokrainian offensive or an attempt to flush out the Anglo Khazarian fifth columnists infesting the Russian power structure then it spells the end of Prigozhin (and perhaps Wagner in it’s current form).
Within the next 72 hours I expect Prigozhin to be under arrest and the leadership of Wagner to replaced.
Prigozhin may be claiming to challenge Shoigu and Gerasimov but in reality this is a direct challenge to Putin (for it is Putin who appointed the Russian military leadership).
In the end there can be only one …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 24 2023 14:39 utc | 185

This reminds me of the firing of MacArthur by Truman situation.

Posted by: odd coup | Jun 24 2023 14:41 utc | 186

Keep your eye on that nuclear power plant.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 24 2023 8:54 utc | 3
This was exactly my thought.
An overnight BBC report even claimed that the Russians were so desperate that they might attack the plant, which I intreated as laying the groundwork for a false flag.

Posted by: bill wolfe | Jun 24 2023 14:42 utc | 187

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 24 2023 14:36 utc | 188
That sounds the most plausible to me.
Prigoznhin’s actions only weaken Russia, a child can see that. His claim that he is fighting against corruption is the claim of a paid provocateur to cover up the actual goal of destruction of the order and weaken the RF forces.
Or, like Machiavelli nicely sums it up, he and his entourage are criminal gangs challenging state power (we have the narco cartels in the West here for example) to expand that towards a larger piece of the cake. Nothing more nothing less.

Posted by: alek_a | Jun 24 2023 14:42 utc | 188

Too many circuses, not enough bread at the end of the Empire of Lies.
The idea Mr. Wagner still has a heart that beats shows the ‘play’ afoot. Ukraine has lost, all it has left are terrorist attacks, false flag attacks, threats and hyperbole.
This is a ruse, and we’ll see shortly the point of it all, whether to lure the Nazis or run to ground the ‘weak’ minded in the Russian command structure.
cheers!

Posted by: gottlieb | Jun 24 2023 14:42 utc | 189

Clearly, very clearly at this point, this is not a psyop or maskirovka. Whether Prigozhin has turned or just snapped is anyone’s guess. And it might be somewhere in the middle: not really turned but western intelligence recognized his psychological instability and fed it (this has some potential based on his recent statements).
The biggest question now is how many Wagner are following Prigozhin and what’s their makeup. If he has a majority of actual commanders, almost all “ex-GRU”, then this is very dangerous for the Kremlin. If he has an “army” of zeks, then this is a relatively minor situation. No footage I’ve seen suggests the convoy is the whole 25,000 group. There’s clearly some serious dudes in Prigozhin’s immediate circle (see his coffee chat with RuAF commanders), but an even a couple hundred of those does not suggest a truly dangerous mutiny.
I’m onboard with the the thesis that MoD was cutting Wagner off for real, likely to deal with Prigozhin going full Colonel Kurtz and Prigozhin decided to take a grab at the brass ring. I wouldn’t be at all surprised that western intelligence was at least tangentially involved, but probably not a full buyout. In the end though he committed the ultimate sin against Putin: betrayal. It cannot be forgiven in this context. And he screwed himself if the real goal is changes at the top of MoD because Putin can neither sack shoigu nor have them resign now without giving a green light to solving political issues the way Prigozhin has tried. He could do it after the fact and claim that they didn’t handle things well enough, but it would be remarkably delicate and dangerous.
I’m most curious about how the Kremlin handles labeling Prigozhin a foreign agent. That could be dressing or very, very serious. Traitor is a given now, but treason on behalf of the West is a whole different thing.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 24 2023 14:44 utc | 190

“Mark my words – we are present at a magnificent spectacle that unties the hands of the Kremlin and justifies subsequent actions in the eyes of the population. The options are huge – from general mobilization to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Prigozhin is a pocket oligarch. And he has no power over “his” PMC. That’s all.”
For some reason the comment was immediately deleted and the user banned. In any case, I agree with this sentiment.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 24 2023 14:21 utc | 176
This one is really good! It reminds me of Kharkov retreat that launched mobilization.

Posted by: Yuri | Jun 24 2023 14:45 utc | 191

There are some questions that we must ask. Why won’t the Russian military use ts superior strngth to prevent the west from sending weapons to Ukraine? With its satellite capabilities Russia should be able to see everything crossing the border. Why is Russia allowing the Ukranians to mass in numbers in order to attack? Is Russia incapable of seeing these groups coming together? Why did Putin allow Prizogin to amass so much poer? Did the Russian intelligence fail to see this or is there more to this situation than we know. This is going lead to much anxiety among the Russian people and may affect the troops in the field. The Russian response seems too tepid in all of this. There are too many warnings and threats with no action to back them up. If you do not strike the enemy decisively it simply embolden the enemy.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Jun 24 2023 14:45 utc | 192

https://www.indianpunchline.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-russian-oligarch/
Talking about Prigozhin.

Posted by: Morongobill | Jun 24 2023 14:45 utc | 193

@Yuri | 101
As ‘b’ states, this really is farcical and there is so much that does not add up. What it reminds me of is the Turkish ‘coup’ that I experienced living in Turkey at the time and it was indeed staged and I believe fully with the support of Putin.
Then too, there were so many pieces that were simply nonsensical.
As such, it is tempting to believe that Wagner troops were indeed attacked – maybe as a last ditch means to get them to join the regular army, don’t know – but probably as a means a) to get shot of Wagner and/or b) a means to justify greater involvement in Ukraine.
Of course, I too, don’t know.
But it strikes me a ludicrous that this is considered a ‘coup’ attempt of any gravity.

Posted by: Dima Areskin | Jun 24 2023 14:48 utc | 194

@Figleaf23 | 154
Remember the Turkish ‘coup’?
No stranger and that was 100% staged.

Posted by: Dima Areskin | Jun 24 2023 14:51 utc | 195

Translation of Borotba comment on situation
——————————-
Ukrainian anti-fascist union Borotba about mutiny of Wagner troops
June 24, 2023
Stop the armed conflict in the rear! The unity of anti-fascist forces is the key to our common Victory
Statement by Borotba (Struggle), revolutionary Marxist organization banned by the Ukrainian government.
June 24: The whole world is closely following the events unfolding in connection with the actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin and part of the Wagner private military company.
The long conflict that existed between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has grown into a stage that threatens the entire state.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has previously attracted sympathy for his sharp criticism of the plagues of oligarchic capitalism, corruption, as well as individual failures and erroneous decisions during the special military operation. However, with the development of the confrontation with the military leadership of the Russian Federation, this criticism began to acquire an exaggerated character, and the motives of a personal confrontation with Sergei Shoigu began to come to the fore, and not criticism of the socio-economic situation and military organization.
The situation when a private, non-state-controlled organization, in fact, a private army, has become an important factor of power, is in itself unhealthy. As a result, regardless of possible subjective intentions, Prigozhin actually started an armed rebellion by a private person against the state.
We, as critics of the capitalist system, could not previously disagree with many of the critical speeches of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Also, the steadfastness and courage of the Wagner PMC fighters in the confrontation with the fascist regime of Ukraine could not but arouse sympathy. But having embarked on an adventurous action, moving the armed confrontation deep into Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened the front, which the Kiev regime and its masters in the West will definitely take advantage of.
The situation is developing rapidly, and we hope that all sides of the confrontation will show prudence and prevent bloodshed tens of kilometers from the front line. We are convinced that the country’s top leadership is capable of finding a way out of this dangerous situation. Conclusions must be drawn on the fight against the vices of the state and social system, inherited from the 1990s, but preserved even in the conditions of the special military operation.
We address the soldiers and officers fighting at the front: Comrades! We are few, but we are among you. We are aware of the difficulties that arose and are arising in the process of organizing military operations, mistakes and injustices, part of the responsibility for which, of course, lies with the military leadership. We never called for hiding difficulties and varnishing reality to please the authorities. We experienced it just like you. But we are convinced that armed adventures will not lead to an improvement in the system, but can only lead to our common defeat.
We hope that the fighters of PMC “Wagner,” who supported their commander, will look at the situation with a cool head and realize that this path leads nowhere. Similar situations have already happened in history — the rebellion of the Left Socialist-Revolutionary Party, the speech of M.A. Muravyov in 1918, the rebellion of Nestor Makhno, who refused to join the united Red Army, the Kronstadt uprising, the rebellion of the anarchists of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War. Regardless of the intentions, sometimes honest and idealistic, such actions have always fallen into the hands of the darkest forces.
Now it is important to end the armed conflict inside the country as soon as possible, to unite efforts in the fight against the Kiev regime and NATO imperialism. In the conditions of confrontation with imperialism, internal contradictions must be resolved in a peaceful democratic way, on the basis of a broad public discussion with the participation of the people, and not by conspiracies from above and personal adventures.
Long live unity and solidarity!

Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 24 2023 14:51 utc | 196

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 24 2023 14:35 utc | 187
suppose its to be expected they need something to shout about with the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi forces taking a pasting from the RF from day one of this SMO.
During the days when Ukraine took back Kharkiv oblast and the city of Kherson I don’t think they were taking a pasting from the RF…
I don’t think the people that support Scottish independence are doing it to make the Republic a Putin puppet.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 24 2023 14:53 utc | 197

Wagner apparently 2 hours away from Moscow

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 24 2023 14:55 utc | 198

When Truman fired Gen MacArthur, did the Rooskis think that a coup would really happen? No.
Did the Soviets or China attack the USA to support MacArthur? No.
But the US/West/Nato/Otan is ready to cause WWIII over Wagner.

Posted by: odd coup | Jun 24 2023 14:56 utc | 199

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 14:16 utc | 174
Your point by point breakdown seems to me quite plausible as to what the underlying situation might be with respect to Prigozhin’s attempted putsch. Did that 6.2 billion dollar Pentagon accounting error end up in Prigozhin’s offshore bank accounts? Like many other barflies have commented on this thread, this sordid episode needs to end sooner than later. Since a ‘go slow’ approach to putting down internal insubordination while waging existential war against an external enemy is bound to quickly end in catastrophe.

Posted by: Akash | Jun 24 2023 14:56 utc | 200