Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 24, 2023

On Prigozhin's Insurrection Farce

Some thoughts on the ongoing insurrection attempt in Russia.

I wonder who or what lured Yevgeny Prigozhin into staging this farce.

In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.

'Western' anal-cysts will spend weeks fantasizing about their wished for outcome which, of course, was never to happen.

The whole story reminds me of Machiavelli's warning against mercenaries:

I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed.

Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and [one’s own] destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, that they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. ...
I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms [i.e., mercenaries]. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain [i.e., the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are ruined in the usual way [i.e., you will lose the war].

Posted by b on June 24, 2023 at 8:35 UTC | Permalink

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Military Summary has a relatively novel take:

An excuse for Russian general mobilization.

Personally, I have no idea what to make of this.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jun 24 2023 8:41 utc | 1

"In twelve or so hours things will have likely calmed down."
Well one hopes some of this lunacy is resolved by then, with minimal or no bloodshed, even if he thought he was helping (which I don't think he is), he's not.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 8:44 utc | 2

Anyone accustomed to Putin's usual demeanor when addressing the nation, compared to this morning's address, can dismiss maskirovka techniques out of hand. The President appears to be seriously pissed off, I'd say. Putin's speech places Prighozin's mutiny in the context of today's existential threat to Russia.

Perhaps it sounds over-the-top to say our risk of nuclear annihilation, out here in USA, just ratcheted up another big notch. If our black-ops just turned Prighozin, then I'd expect there to be a few more layers to this cake they're baking. Keep your eye on that nuclear power plant.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 24 2023 8:54 utc | 3

I hope that in twelve or so hours things do calm down. Wagner 25k hardened soldiers camped in Rostov can be a big problem for Russia, specially Putin calling it treason. It can be a start of civil war.

Posted by: blind | Jun 24 2023 8:55 utc | 4

Some more thoughts on the 'Armed Rebellion'

This is a serious blow to Russia's progress in the war and more broadly, any realistic peace prospects.

NATO's long term strategy was never to outright win militarily, but to grind Russia down, divert its resources to fighting a war and away for developing its economy and progressing its society. To a large extent, this failed in its maximalist ambitions. Nevertheless, it is also undeniable that this war came at a significant cost to its budget, trade relations and put the country under great pressure.

Leading up to a crucial NATO summit, Russia appeared to be gaining the upper hand in the battle and the futility of Ukraine's campaign was becoming apparent to a growing number of its supporters. The potential for a NATO reversal of policy was becoming a distinct possibility.

Prigozhin's folly may well be thwarted and dealt with within the day, but the ramifications of this event could bear long term consequences for Russia in its war with NATO. His foolish gambit must be seen as outright treason, not just in light of the armed insurrection, but the nature and timing of it too. On top of the long term geopolitical implications, there is also the immediate issue of destabilising the entire frontline through his interfering/blocking of the Rostov-Voronezh supply axis, and the inevitable blow to morale in the Armed Forces at a crucial juncture when they are under heavy attack in the UAF counteroffensive.

Most damaging of all though, the doubters and fence sitters in NATO will have been given a tasty morsel of the long dreamed of demise of Putin and collapse of the Russian Gov't. That is ultimately what NATO is hoping for as an acceptable win. The Russian military cannot be defeated, but Russia can always defeat itself from within, as it has done time and again before.

Unfortunately, this episode has given all the crazy neocons just what they needed too prove they are not delusional in their ambitions. It is just what they wanted to pour more fuel on the fire now.

A very sad day for both Russia supporters and all 'neutrals' just hoping for peace.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 24 2023 8:59 utc | 5

Watch "Military Summary" Link and I think he is on the Money?
Personally I think it could be, in the end, a good thing for Russia to clean out the nut cases intoxicated with their elevation to positions they are not capable of fulfilling? .... It's all about the money!

Posted by: William Edward Kiera | Jun 24 2023 9:01 utc | 6

Well I guess I was cautious a month or so ago when I hinted that Prince Prizzy, had changed sides.

As I say he is a mercenary and for sale. It was about 6 months or so ago when I noted one of his senior bods had defected to the West- Netherlands I think but not sure. At that time I thought uh oh!!!

Then during the Bakhmut battle it seemed pretty obvious to me that he had switched or was about to, but I was reluctant to say so, but hinted very broadly.

But going full on coup has slightly surprised me, I thought more likely to run for president.

But now that he is in full on insurrection I have a few questions:

When was he bought?
Was he a long term asset in place expected to act back in 2022?
Who in high places supports him?
Why was he allowed so much leeway? - any one else would have been charged with treason months ago

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 9:03 utc | 7

Posted by b on June 24, 2023 at 8:35 UTC | Permalink


Posted by: Tim | Jun 24 2023 9:04 utc | 8

WEEB UNION makes a strong case that this Wagner Rebellion is a PSYOP. I urge everyone to watch his latest video.
Putin and Prigozhin met on June 14 and reportedly had a constructive meeting.
If this is,in fact, a PSYOP then I predict that a serious escalation is about to go down. Maybe a Russian attack on a NATO country.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Jun 24 2023 9:07 utc | 9

My newest … “Amsterdam On the Thames” … an analogy to “Neocons Sighted on the Thames” (2005) about the Henry Jackson Society.

Khodorkovsky et al.

Exiled Independent Russian TV Channel Dozhd Gets Dutch Broadcast License As 'TV Rain' | RFERL - Jan. 10, 2023 |

The news outlet run by Derk Sauer relocated to Amsterdam … “The Moscow Times”

Videos from Rostock on Don with comments direct from our Amsterdam studios ...

Soon in the HQ of Chancellor Mark Rutte ...

NATO Secretary General and Prime Minister of the Netherlands host pre-Summit dinner in the Hague | June 27, 2023 |  

Jens wants out NOW … Mark is ready, has been running for the job since July 2014 … total Russophobic and pro Dutch Royal fossil fuel investments and profits. Gazprom in reverse is his wildest dream.

Posted by: Oui | Jun 24 2023 9:07 utc | 10

There are wagnerites on the streets of central Rostov next to military hq on budennovsky prospect right now. Some brave rostovites come on the streets and ask militaries to leave. My friend was jogging at 4.30am and saw the wagnerites driving on the central street of sadovaya.

Posted by: Yuri | Jun 24 2023 9:08 utc | 11

Have any shots been fired so far? Has anyone been hurt yet?

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 24 2023 9:10 utc | 12

Posted by: William Edward Kiera | Jun 24 2023 9:01 utc | 7
It's an interesting theory I was considering pre-speech (ploy to stress the need\get a next wave of mobilization, for which hints have already been dropped in recent weeks). However post-speech, color me thinking not so much along those lines anymore.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 9:14 utc | 13

Why now?

Spring offensive has ended for now … personal ambition always motivates … a break in fighting is welcome … was there an orchestrated “false flag” attack on his troops and position?

An army of 25,000 men does not go undetected …

Posted by: Oui | Jun 24 2023 9:14 utc | 14

Money, the MOD stopped paying Wagner to force them to sign contracts with the MOD.
Within a month Wagner would fall apart, for them it's now or never, even with this is very hard to comprehend what Prigozhin has done, this is a terrible blow against Russian prestige, with zero support from the Russian people at large.

Posted by: Gerard | Jun 24 2023 9:15 utc | 15

Have any shots been fired so far? Has anyone been hurt yet?

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 24 2023 9:10 utc | 15

Reportedly 3 helo's downed (one at least destroyed), all crew reported ok though.
Shots recorded\heard (there is video but you don't actually see those firing) allegedly from Voronezh area, but no reports of any casualties from it ...yet.
In terms of any mass engagements\disruptions...nothing reported, yet.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 9:21 utc | 16

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 9:03 utc | 8

The discord leaks have Wagner speaking with Ukraine this year. As to why he was given so much power and material backing by the government I can’t say. Another blunder from the Kremlin most likely.

Posted by: Lachlan | Jun 24 2023 9:21 utc | 17

@bar. Would appreciate a link to that Putin speech mentioned in posts above.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 24 2023 9:22 utc | 18

Mercenaries are exactly as defined … Have Gun, Will Travel.

Wagner forces are spread across the Middle East and North Africa … from Syria, Sudan, Libya into Mali.

Perhaps in the talks in Riyadh between the US-KSA and the Sudan rebels, Yevgeny Prigozhin got an offer he couldn’t refuse. Of course, Israel and Mossad have key interest in the outcome … progress in Abraham Accords. 🥹 🇸🇩

Posted by: Oui | Jun 24 2023 9:25 utc | 19

some of the videos of Prigozhin talking seen on Simplicius' substack show a man who is full of hate and disdain, and spouting crazy stories.

Posted by: Manage without me | Jun 24 2023 9:27 utc | 20

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 9:21 utc | 21

AN-26 shot down.

There are videos of what is claimed to be Russian (non Wagner) soldiers giving up there weapons. Maybe 20 soldiers max in one group.

But at this point most non Wagner forces appear to be just waiting for specific orders to do something and in the meantime are doing nothing. (In the vicinity of the Wagner soldiers.)

Posted by: Tim2 | Jun 24 2023 9:29 utc | 21

In Russia, there are very serious claims against Putin and his General Staff, there are many dissatisfied with the decisions from the Kremlin. Putin is too passive. For example, during the mobilization it turned out that a million uniforms had been stolen, the money also disappeared. The general who was responsible for this did not condemn anyone, but simply transferred to another office. Criticized and for too late mobilization. In Russia, they arrange some kind of festive events for billions of rubles, and in the meantime, ordinary people and volunteers are raising money for the war. Many people hate this position. Many in Russia consider the Minsk agreements a betrayal and a serious mistake by Putin, and Putin was also forced to admit this, Russia was deceived and that the NVO should be started in 2014. In Russia, the General Staff is criticized a lot because of the failures near Kiev, Kherson, Kharkov, there are no talented generals, however, Putin does not carry out any resignations. In short, there are many problems and they are not solved in any way, and people are unhappy.

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 24 2023 9:32 utc | 22

one wonders. have FSB "provoked " him in a machination scheme. vid of just a couple tanks trucks in Rostov .. P has been so dynamic and driven and successful...he believes his kind of action is what Ukraine deserves... action not military politics re Nato and spineless traitors of EU eg re Minsk and funding Z and Russia must be defeated on the battlefield .. this sickening pretence that they are not directly involved but supply and feed neo nazism and have awakened their slumbering own inner faschism....surely he believes to show the might and force of Russia yet get it over and done with deal with the head . the core once and for all to save time and lives . Surely he represents people who feel the stress of this existential situation...this war that is becomng more openly visceral and heading to Crimea for example. Has he become subsumed by all that has been seen and done his heart and soul at any cost to Protect Russia...

Posted by: Jo | Jun 24 2023 9:33 utc | 23

Going on a limb here but the video of the claimed air strike on "Wagner camp" is BS. It showed a few small fires, a few chopped trees and one single, what might have been a corpse but not clearly determinable. It was short and Hollywoodish and could have been from any AFU trench on the front. They also bought 1200 RU uniforms to make such stunts.

An-26 video is from last year.

No videos of helicopters shot down.

It's unclear how many troops Prigozhin has under control. Military Summary claimed they control the roads and areas in the south and north of Rostov.

98 % of all reports are Nato CIPSO, who are very much trying to capitalize and create BS, like they have done for all duration of SMO. This is comparable to "Russia volunteer corps" and Bucha fakes.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 9:36 utc | 24

Over reaction is lame. A self-promoted military leader has over-estimated his abilities and decided he deserves political power not president, just something fair like Minister of Defense - yeah right, I don't think so the nonsense around proghozin is exactly the type of media created tosh that Russia doesn't need to have polluting it. Acknowledge this as a reality or Priggy will have a hissy fit.

This is pure soap opera there has barely been any conflict of any import across the ages where a military boss of one sort or another hasn't attempted to use his/her situation to gain political power. A great many succeed because their demands are thought reasonable, not egomaniacal but every now and again the self-aggrandising leader makes a huge, politically impossible and totally devoid of merit claim a.nd worst of all tries to force his will by sacrificing the very people who made his victories on the altar of personal power.

Occasionally one gets away with it (Julius Caesar) but mostly, quite rightly they do not.
For the play to work the state must be already seriously weakened the RF state is certainly not weakened. The commitment to the SMO is not just correct for humanity the pushback by the western mob has failed time and time again.

So priggy had no chance but was too self-obsessed to understand that a drongo believed his own bullshit, seen that one a few times before.
We all know that western corporately owned, state-controlled media are gonna harp on and on about this for a week, if they want to deceive themselves again, that's them, if it hadn't been this to carry-on about it coulda been worse; the mercenary saboteurs prolly won't try to blow the ZNPP for that long & maybe forever as the truth of this sordid little tale of power hungry greed is more wisespread which it will be more & more people around the world will know the truth making the western hive minded talking heads show themselves to be pitifully incapable deceivers for the nth time

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 24 2023 9:40 utc | 25

How the fortunes of the West has changed, literally over night. From a certain loss, at least informationally, to a huge push in the back that they can overcome.

How on Earth have the Russian security agencies not forseen this? A huge danger to the state, almost as critical as american nukes, have been left to fester and multiply.

Whatever Russia does, it is from yesterday night at the losing end. They have let victory slip from their hands.

Posted by: alek_a | Jun 24 2023 9:41 utc | 26

In response to Lachlan@752,

Such credulity reflects poorly on you. You really think Russia would launch one of if not the most complex information operation in history during the midst of Ukraine’s largest offensive to date?

You're assuming they would have a multitude of options for when to launch such an operation. If its meant to disrupt an uncontrolled 5'th columnist uprising planned to coincide with the Ukrainian offensive, when are they supposed to seize the initiative on that front?

Meanwhile, how is the Ukrainian offensive going? You're trying to sell two mutually exclusive positions -- that the front-line situation is so critical for the Russians, that domestic info-ops are out of the question, but also that if Russian positions in Ukraine aren't negatively influenced by this supposed coup it wouldn't be a meaningful indicator for interpretation. If the situation in Ukraine is at a stage where it's essentially self-regulating to a point where it's not influenced by Russian cohesion, then what's the risk of info-ops?

The kids call that cope.

And that's your primary demographic?

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 9:43 utc | 27

The Shadow War: Putin Strips Spies of Ukraine Role | May 9, 2022 |

Vladimir Putin has removed Russia’s biggest intelligence agency, the FSB, from its role as the primary spy agency for the war in Ukraine and handed responsibility to a heavily militarized branch of military intelligence, the GRU.

The new lead officer, Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy head of the GRU, is strongly implicated in several of Putin’s most serious attacks on the West over the past decade. He is accused by the U.K. and the European Union of overseeing the chemical weapons attack in Salisbury in 2018. An experienced special forces officer, he is also sanctioned by the U.S. for direct cyber interference in the U.S. 2016 election.

Posted by: Oui | Jun 24 2023 9:43 utc | 28

Kadyrov's statement.

Slavyangrad By popular request of Kadyrov's personal fans, I will post his statement. Here it is:

Friends, it's been a busy night and the flights [I've been on] have not given me time to voice my position on this vile BETRAYAL!

Everything that is happening is a KNIFE IN THE BACK and a real military rebellion!

I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances and resolve disputes in our rear. The home front must always be calm and secure. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, with the enemy in their face, while behind them a traitorous enterprise [is playing out]. [We must think] about stability, about state cohesion, about the security of citizens.

History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Have we not enough losses in the SMO? Do we still have to create problems within the country?

We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation in minute detail better than any strategist, much less a businessman, calls up the commanders on the ground himself and has full control over the course of SMO. And the Commander-in-Chief's decisions are taken in a measured, meticulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, but he sees it all as a whole! And it is absolutely right that Vladimir Vladimirovich noted in his address to the nation—this is a military mutiny! There is no justification for such actions!
I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin!

I appeal to our fighters—patriots of our Motherland. Do not fall for provocations. Whatever goals they may be trying to achieve, whatever promises they may be making to you—state security and the cohesion of the Russian society at a time like this are above all! Look at how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. Look at how many innuendos, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens and create the danger of a destabilizing situation there are. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treasonous march.

What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defence. It is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary [that all of us] rally around our national leader: The military, the security forces, the governors, the civilian population.

Soldiers of the Ministry of Defence and the Rosgvardia of the Chechen Republic are already on their way to the zones of tension. We will do everything in our power to preserve the unity of Russia and to protect her statehood!

The insurgency must be put down, and if tough measures have to be taken to do so, we are ready!

Also with respect to Prigozhin apparently there was statement or something either in response to the presidents address or Kadyrov's statement:

"With respect to the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our Motherland, we fought and we continue to fight—all the fighters of Wagner PMC. And none of us is going to, on the orders of the President, the FSB, or whoever, show up and surrender. We are the patriots and those who oppose us today are those who've gathered around scumbags."

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 9:45 utc | 29

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 24 2023 9:36 utc | 31

Others disagree, for example the FighterBomber channel disagrees.. Now a claim of an SU-25 downed.

Posted by: Tim2 | Jun 24 2023 9:47 utc | 30

In response Aleph_Null@4,

And yet, no mention of Prigozhin, Wagner -- light on specifics. Traitors acting against the state to satiate their own ambitions will be dealt with harshly. If this ends up with Shoigu being executed, as an example, the essence of Putin's address would not become any less appropriate.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 9:50 utc | 31

Psyop? If this is a psyop then it is the dumbest psyop ever, because it demoralises ordinary Russians and undermines support for Russian among other countries.

People that say "psyop" should at least come up with a rational motive and an exit plan for the principal people involved, some of whom have already been labelled as traitor, which = the death penalty. Do people psyop themselves into death by firing squad? Sentient people want to know.

Posted by: Jake the Snake | Jun 24 2023 9:56 utc | 32

Thank you b, Machiavelli is a perfect choice to make comment here. But what madness and self importance could have led to this extraordinary miscalculation 25 thousand Wagners up against a hundred thousand man reserve army.

One almost gets the impression it was sabotage at a perfect time for a forceful Russian advance. Interesting weeks ahead it seems.

Putin sure is living through interesting times and to think he arose from a boring role in the KGB as it was. Salut Vladimir Putin, great helmsman.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 9:57 utc | 33

"If this ends up with Shoigu being executed, as an example, the essence of Putin's address would not become any less appropriate."
I thought it interesting as well the presidents address didn't mention anyone specifically by name, maybe there is something to read into that, like trying to leave outs for some, maybe there isn't, leaning toward not reading much into it myself.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 10:01 utc | 34

Posted by: Jake the Snake | Jun 24 2023 9:56 utc | 39

well this "rebellion" resulted in calling out a CTO by Putin , no clue what a CTO means and the consequences but maybe it's
a hidden general mobilization .....

Posted by: publicdisorder | Jun 24 2023 10:03 utc | 35

In response to Jake the Snake@39,

Nobody is being put to death at this point -- at most, an investigation has been opened into Prigozhin. That investigation is as easily closed at the end of a successful "psy-op" if that's what it is.

If the intention is to force a number of 5'th columnists into the open, any demoralizing effect of the initial confusion is recuperated with their successful apprehension. Likewise international support. As if the Russian public and Russia's international partners prefer the figment of a stable state with traitors embedded in its upper echelons over active measures to root those same traitors out.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 10:07 utc | 36

All the headless chickens running around. Bomb the roads! Deperate appeals for help! Close the borders! Scramble bombers! Maskirova! 5D Chess!

They're mercenaries, Baldrick, mercenaries. Just hand out flyers offering the following:

- half a million euros to the five men who can take the most credit for Prigozhin's death, or to their next of kin
- full pardons for all
- commissions in the regular forces if they want them

Sit back and have cup of tea. Let him be hoisted by his own etc.

Posted by: Due West | Jun 24 2023 10:10 utc | 37

Perhaps I misunderstood you. My impression was that you said this whole coup attempt was a maskirovka that both Putin and Prigozhin were in on, and that it was being done specifically to allow a general mobilisation in Russia and to goad Ukraine into attacking. Which is patently ridiculous cope.

Posted by: Lachlan | Jun 24 2023 10:14 utc | 38

Oui # 9:43 utc | 35

The new lead officer, Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy head of the GRU, is strongly implicated in several of Putin’s most serious attacks on the West over the past decade. He is accused by the U.K. and the European Union of overseeing the chemical weapons attack in Salisbury in 2018. An experienced special forces officer, he is also sanctioned by the U.S. for direct cyber interference in the U.S. 2016 election.


"He is accused by the U.K. and the European Union of overseeing the chemical weapons attack in Salisbury in 2018"

You are referring to the Porton Down FU in Salisbury following the CBW exercises that ran for four days and then finally poisoned the Skripals. You mean THAT cockup? Mate if Vladimir Alekseyev had anything to do with that then it was only as afar as arranging the two Russian tourists to go there and make total fools of the englanders and their idiot press. The UK clowns f*ked up so bad they lost the plot and then murfered an innocent alcohol abuser some weeks later and then tried - yet again - to blame that on Russia.

Yes, Vladimir Alekseyev is too good not to be promoted to higher office and expanded tasks. All the more so when you realise he is tearing strips of his old foe the englander sheep shaggers in MI6.

Now when it comes to the Russian interference in US elections, you might be interested to know that the entire story has been debunked and dumped on in the USA. Just take a moment to research these things.

No, I guess Vladimir Alekseyev earned his cyber gongs for slipping the emails from Hilary Clinton's unsecured private Clinton Foundation email server she had in her closet at home. Do you remember those revelations Oui? That imbecile Secretary of State kept her official USA Top Secret correspondence at home on the Clinton Foundation server in the closet and refused to let USA Security set up their secure systems on it.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 10:15 utc | 39

Posted by: publicdisorder | Jun 24 2023 10:03 utc | 43

From Slavyangrad.

"..... The differences in Russian law between an SMO and CTO are very serious.

Special Military Operation (SMO) is a conventional term which describes the scope of current Russian operations in Ukraine. The conduct of the SMO does not affect life within Russia in any significant legal sense. A CTO by contrast, is a legal framework with key implications for Russian citizens, as well as people living in the area of operations.

The CTO regime is introduced and canceled by the head of Russia's FSB. As such it is primarily a national security measure. The purpose of a CTO regime is to prevent or minimise the consequences of any and all threats to national security, such as (but not limited to) terrorist attacks.

A brief summary of CTO legal implications:
• FSB officers become part of the command structure of the military operation and participate in military planning and decision making at the highest levels.
• Conscripted soldiers may be utilised in combat operations (not just mobilized reservists).
• Security services may requisition property of citizens such as personal vehicles, warehouses etc for CTO use.
• Strict powers of control over the exchange of information.
• Communication means may be disconnected by security services without notice.
• Unimpeded access to any CTO employee into any premises in Russia without the need for legal warrant.
• Restrictions on freedom of movement
• Employees of FSB, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Emergency Situations and others, become part of the CTO.
• Expanded powers to security forces in who may be designated a hostile combatant. This opens the door to targeted destruction of non-military individuals.

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Jun 24 2023 10:16 utc | 40

As I am writing this in Saint-Malo, France, the time is 10:32 AM (GMT), the date June 24, 2023.

It seems that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the figurehead of the Wagner Group, has suffered a kind of psychotic fit or stroke and started a mutiny against Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, the final idea being to overthrow Putin. In my opinion his chances of success are very very slim.

But this is Putin's moment of truth. If he is worth his salt in any way, Prigozhin will be dead this evening.

If Prigozhin is still alive this evening the mutiny will start to grow.

Joe Biden and his hateful team of neoconservative morons will be comforted in their opinion that Vladimir is a weak and irresolute person, actually a contemptible coward. They will get absolutely convinced that now is the time to supply Zelensky with tactical nuclear weapons ( he will use them in the following minute ) and that all threats of reprisals from Russia should be contemptuously ignored.

I repeat: Putin's moment of truth.

PS : The time is now 11:31 AM and it seems that Prigozhin is still alive, which is beyond me.

Posted by: Thierry | Jun 24 2023 10:17 utc | 41

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 9:57 utc | 41

Agree, not bad for a Soviet regime nerd, on the autistic spectrum. Elon Musk would be a good Western counterpart, though both have adopted radically different coping mechanisms.

Agree again, however I think Operation Priggy was originally meant to coincide with a Russian collapse, but in an act of desperation, has been hastily repurposed, so as to have some impact on current events in the Theatre.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 24 2023 10:17 utc | 42

When there was this attack on Wagners "facilities". Is it possible that it was done with the new weapons Kiew got from the west, simulating an attack from the russian side? With long range cruise missiles this should be possible. Question only, what is about russion air defense. ... just my thoughts.

Posted by: Johnny | Jun 24 2023 10:19 utc | 43

Medvedev also commented on what is happening:

Now the most important thing to defeat the external and internal enemy, hungry to tear our Motherland, to save our state is to rally around the President, the Supreme Commander of the country's armed forces. Split and betrayal - the path to the greatest tragedy, a universal catastrophe. We won't allow it. The enemy will be defeated! Victory will be ours! (c) Medvedev

Blown up oil depot in Voronezh (to deprive fuel on drive to moscow? maybe sabotage under cover of on-going events? from ukr via distracted AD? who knows).
"The governor of the Voronezh region, Gusev, said that active extinguishing of the burning oil depot is now underway - 100 firefighters and 30 pieces of equipment are involved."

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 10:19 utc | 44

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Jun 24 2023 10:16 utc | 50

They might as well just call themselves the Red Army again and be done with it.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 24 2023 10:22 utc | 45

In response to Lachlan@48,

Here's what I wrote:

The thing to watch is what effect this will have on front-line operations. If the situation in Ukraine carries along as if nothing has happened, Russian positions are retained, offensive operations continue -- I'd say the coup is an act.

The reason for it won't be directly tied to shaping the field in Ukraine, but to drawing out 5'th columnists inside Russia who were contemplating a similar procedure themselves. They wouldn't have the luxury of ignoring this event or treating it as a spoof, since even as a spoof it ostensibly gives them a perceived edge in seizing power for themselves. Once this is over, presumably with the Russian state apparatus intact, the inoculation will close the window of opportunity for like-minded turbo-patriots. This interpretation fits the mantra of striking first when a fight is unavoidable.

If this ends up being labeled as an exercise to root out traitors, it won't come as a surprise to the general public.

I'm not making predictions or taking bets. I'm saying what I think one should look at to get a clear picture of the situation, since a psyop would be indiscernible from the real thing, but not worth the sacrifice of tactical positions on the front.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 10:23 utc | 46

So far, Prigoshin, in his struggle against the Russian military establishment, has given no indication of siding with NATO. Even though he is in control of the Rostow airfield, he gave assurance on TV that he's not interfering with the ongoing use of this airfield by the SMO. (RT, Al Jazeera)

It may even be the case that his complaints of having been kept short of ammunition during the fight for Bakhmut, and of having been subject to a Russian air strike, are justified. For any kind of rivalry between Wagner and the military establishment would be a plausible scenario.

What I am most afraid of is
(1) Wagner changing sides in the SMO and joining Washington in its quest for regime change
(2) Prigoshin creating a rift in the military establishment and proceeding with a "regime change" plan of his own.

Prigoshin is in control of Rostow, which is the centre of Russian coordination of the SMO effort. This is what causes (1) to be a serious threat. Besides, it is hard to see how Prigoshin expects the current situation to play out in his favour. He will try (2), and, if it this doesn't work, his only hope will be (1).

Posted by: grunzt | Jun 24 2023 10:31 utc | 47

Milites # 10:17 utc | 52

Perhaps so. As I recall Priggy repeated day after day that he was handing Artyomovsk over to the Russian Army and not returning to battle for a month or two. And almost always the inference was that it was the Russian Army that would lose it. Almost everything I read of his statements seemed wishing bad luck to the regular army.

Speaking of being repurposed, now that the President has called it out, I guess those Wagnerians smart enough to move away and team up with Regular Army might get the task of flogging Karkhov (or Odessa) soon enough. They are excellent assault forces and just as good as the Russian Army regulars so they might just get along fine now that the saboteurs are isolated from their daily briefing and bravado sessions. The whining undermining will finally be silenced. If Putin and Gerasimov are solid statesmen and provide a space for redemption for the Wagner patriots to show their stuff then this might just heal over pronto.

I guess Priggy was pissed that the Russian Army stood their ground over the past month and flogged the UKes into the mud day after day.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 10:37 utc | 48

Another thing worth considering: Prigozhin has made statements appealing to both anti-war and turbo-patriot camps as part of this bid.

- UKR had no intention of invading anyone
- Zelensky was ready to negotiate, RU turned him down
- DNR&LNR shelled by Russia since 2014, UKR propaganda all true
- Russian losses under-reported by 10x, Russian army being ground down by UKR
- RU intentionally under-utilizing its military potential against UKR
- State and military structures infiltrated by traitors
- Wagner represent patriotic opposition, intend to clean house and wage total war against West

All that's missing is throwing in something about the holohoax, British Crown controlling the world, splitting Russia along state lines and resuming normal trade relations with the West, and he'll have appealed to all opposition groups in Russia, marginal and otherwise.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 10:38 utc | 49

Posted by: Jake the Snake | Jun 24 2023 9:56 utc | 39

If you want reasonable logic, I give you this: an operation to divert attention from something else. Probably a large attack. Probably to take Kharkiv.

I’m not saying I know it is so, I just saying that’s a reasonable explanation.

Most other explanations are less plausible. As you point out: of course P, the commanders of Wagner and the soldiers know that they won’t be able to take Moscow. I this thing is real they are all suicidal. I think they are not.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 24 2023 10:38 utc | 50

Nah I don't see a CTO, for a start the few anti terrorist actions are restricted to a limited small selection of regions, they aren't going to apply nationally so the RF admin will secure what they need to ensure a few a few areas remain safe and in a week this will all be history. If the situation does arise that needs a CTO it will be when doing so furthers Russia's advance in the conflict, not as a defensive move which is unnecessary & probably irksome for the citizens.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 24 2023 10:41 utc | 51

The question of the explosion of the fuel depot in the Voronezh region has been resolved: The explosion was caused by the Strela-10 rocket of Wagner PMC that missed the Ka-52 of the Russian Air Force, according to @Fighter_Bomber

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 24 2023 10:42 utc | 52

Insurrection? Psyops?

... once more the kaleidoscope has been jolted beyond recognition and we all left trying to make sense of those myriad of plastic coloured shapes ...

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 24 2023 10:45 utc | 53

🇷🇺❗The airborne defense complex of the Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter of the Russian Aerospace Forces diverted the anti-aircraft missile of the PMC "Wagner" from the combat vehicle over Voronezh.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 24 2023 10:46 utc | 54

I took a peek at John Helmer to see if he had comment on the Prigozhin blunder but not yet.

He did publish this:

Probably more suited at the Ukraine thread but here it is.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 10:48 utc | 55

“So far, Prigoshin, in his struggle against the Russian military establishment, has given no indication of siding with NATO.”

Wrong. He just said that Ukraine was never a threat, that the war in Ukraine was unnecessary, and that Putin was tricked into it by the generals. What else does that mean except that, if he takes power, he ends the war?

Posted by: line islands | Jun 24 2023 10:48 utc | 56

You could see this coming by the way Prigozhin was lionized in MSM. It must also be true that something bigger is still coming and this is just a misdirection play.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 24 2023 10:49 utc | 57

...The explosion was caused by the Strela-10 rocket of Wagner PMC that missed the Ka-52 of the Russian Air Force, according to @Fighter_Bomber

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 24 2023 10:42 utc | 63

Correct link

The question of the explosion of the fuel depot in the Voronezh region has been resolved ...

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 24 2023 10:50 utc | 58

Btw what is Prigozhin's life expectancy?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 24 2023 10:52 utc | 59

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 24 2023 10:38 utc | 61

Stranger things have happened. Sometimes things aren’t some conspiracy - this love on Moscow may well be exactly as it looks, they want to take control of the country.

I’ll readily eat my words if I am wrong but I believe this on face value, it isn’t some trick. Mercenaries can never be trusted and this proves it.

Posted by: Lachlan | Jun 24 2023 10:57 utc | 60

Prigozhin's time may be limited

🇷🇺💥 🇷🇺 Footage from the scene of the explosion near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov

The footage from military correspondent Roman Kosarev shows that immediately after the explosion, people ran away from the building of the headquarters of the Southern Military District. Earlier there was information that the "Wagner" mined the streets near the building.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 24 2023 11:00 utc | 61

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 24 2023 10:37 utc | 59

Yup, this time Lilburne is pardoned not executed, thanks to admitting he suffered a stress-induced breakdown and the New Model Army once more welcomes back some of its most dedicated and effective fighters. The frontline combat troops still kill Ukrainians in industrial quantities, whilst substituting their usual toilet paper for the propaganda leaflets telling them it’s all over.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 24 2023 11:01 utc | 62

I still don't have a clue whats really happening but airstrikes, and missiles attacks on helicopters in civilian areas seem to rule out psyops in my mind ... going to move away from the keyboard as this could keep me here all day ...

The moment of the air strike on the Wagner convoy on the M-4 highway this morning.

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 24 2023 11:07 utc | 63

Posted by: grunzt | Jun 24 2023 10:31 utc | 57
Yup (1) No doubt is the leverage\barging chip, that for today at least goes largely unmolested, including army aviation (at least it was early this morning) with supposed supervision, being allow on missions toward ukraine - or so was reported in rybar via #21.

As for grand psyop talk I gotta say, I think we're past that territory, and if not well they sure are going all-out on the script.


"The question of the explosion of the fuel depot in the Voronezh region has been resolved: The explosion was caused by the Strela-10 rocket of Wagner PMC that missed the Ka-52 (was diverted by its heat traps) of the Russian Air Force, according to @Fighter_Bomber"

also updates: - Explosion reported in area of South Military District command in Rostov, unclear exactly yet what from.

Video of an alleged strike on the wagner convoy while on the m4 hwy this morning (obv I can't confirm if that's the m4 or today).

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 11:07 utc | 64

I am putting my money on maskirovka. The Russians excel at this.

EXAMPLE: Get Jake Sullivan to wildly speculate that the Russians will invade Ukraine with 6 or 7 divisions; seize the entire country; continue marching to Paris; and bottle up the Brits at Dunkirk. Then you deploy a couple of regiments around Kiev, just enough to cause Zelensky to pee his britches and redeploy all his forces to defend the OP residence, which leaves the rest of the country wide open so that Russia can send in troops to liberate 20% of the Country. MASKIROVKA!

EXAMPLE: Get a loudmouth like EV Prigozhin to complain publicly that his PMC fighters don't have ammo in Bahkmut and are not getting support from the Russian general staff. The UAR swallows the bait hook, line, and sinker and feeds in greater amounts of human flesh into the "meat grinder". Voila! Bahkmut becomes Artymovsk. MASKIROVKA!

Compared to crude NATO deception planning, Russian maskirovka is a thing of beauty because you can go for years and never know how the Russians trick-f_cked you. Unlike Schwartzkoff who publicly spiked the football with tales of his deception plan three days after Operation Desert Storm, Russians carry their secrets of maskirovka with them to their graves. They leave very few traces for aspiring officers at the Command and General Staff College and at the War College to study.

Russian maskirovka always has a goal. It is hard to guess what that goal might be. Perhaps cover for counter-insurgency operations on Russia's borders. Perhaps the Russians are inciting the Ukes to stop their "pause" and feed the meat grinders in Orikhiv or Vremenka since Russia is showing internal division. I cannot know what the Kremlin is thinking. But I will put my money on Maskirovka.

Posted by: MajorMike | Jun 24 2023 11:08 utc | 65

So, once they put the straight jacket on the " Chef" and if I was him, I'd leak to the press that this argument is between myself and the " Boss" concerning this upcoming Nato Command Center Meeting. I would take the stance that this is a legitimate target because they are planning more attacks on the Motherland and they've stated that Crimea is one of the Main Targets , thus, their little Genocide meeting is a legitimate Target and we should send them a Hypersonic message or 5. Let Nato sweat a little more and take some heat off of the Chef's over reaction. An Attitude Adjustment aimed at those in Command is appropriate during Wars - hopefully some good comes from this. my 2 rubles.

Posted by: GMC | Jun 24 2023 11:09 utc | 66

A lot of good commentary here at the Moon of Alabama on what is going on with Prigozhin.

If he is acting a part and reading the scripts for the MOD and Putin, then he will be OK. If not, he will wind up either dead or in a Psych Ward.

Maybe he was too close to his men and to the front lines too long?

Whatever it is, I figure it will all be over within a few days.

Posted by: young | Jun 24 2023 11:11 utc | 67

Looks like he's headed to Moscow

Posted by: d0ng | Jun 24 2023 11:17 utc | 68

Repeatedly Putin has shown that he is essentially lazy and/or indecisive. You see he wants to be friends with the west, which only understands vassaldom for everyone except the exceptionals. He takes forever to understand and respond to an existential threat. He should have taken out Ukraine in 2014. Then he should have attacked full scale and wiped them out in Feb 2022, which would have save much more lives. He went for a half hearted attack and negotiations, that have got half a million people killed.

He should have put the muzzle on his Chef, who has obviously been working with MI6 and NED types (looks like these guys can operate with impunity in Russia. They brought the Soviet Union down openly in the good old days).

I don't see how Putin can survive this fiasco.

Posted by: cafe con leche | Jun 24 2023 11:22 utc | 69

Look I do not think it is a farce

He has 25,000 or more soldiers plus ammo.

Russia must tread carefully to avoid a bloodbath.

It is probably best that Priggy is tried and sent to jail, rather than killed. Most critical is to see who his backers are.

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 11:22 utc | 70

Posted by: line islands | Jun 24 2023 10:48 utc | 61

Well said.

This whole affair casts shame on Russia. It’s a farce if the highest order, pathetic really.

Posted by: Lachlan | Jun 24 2023 11:22 utc | 71

Follow up to my last least it be take wrong way:
"Eyewitnesses in Rostov report that the explosion was pyrotechnic intended to drive away the civilians. Wagner PMC troops have demanded that civilians do not approach closer than 2kms. " (of building I assume)

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 11:25 utc | 72

Money, the MOD stopped paying Wagner to force them to sign contracts with the MOD.

Posted by: Gerard | Jun 24 2023 9:15 utc | 15

Thanks, Gerard, I think you nailed it.

Posted by: Clever Dog | Jun 24 2023 11:25 utc | 73

In response d0ng@79,

His position has been surrounded for some time already and Akhmat is arriving on the scene. Unless he's able to make everyone switch sides, fight his way out or teleport, he won't be going anywhere.

As to the first possibility, initial indication suggests that he hasn't been able to generate any support among any official structures. If this was an operation to smoke out 5'th columnists, there's little information in the public sphere to support it.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 11:26 utc | 74

Just watched Putin's 5-1/2 minute speech. He does not look angry or pissed. He looks like he is acting. Is the entire political world become theatre?

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 24 2023 11:27 utc | 75

The last meeting ten days ago between putin and prigozhin, according to reuters, prigozhin said

‘In Wednesday's remarks, however, he said he thought a "compromise solution" would be found between Putin and parliament to enable Wagner fighters to receive both social guarantees and certified status as combatants.’

There was a disagreement about signing contracts but it is mysterious that this should turn into a rebellion within 10 days.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 24 2023 11:28 utc | 76

In summary. The Ministry of Defense required that all volunteer units sign contracts to be officially paid, and to be totally subordinate to the general staff. All volunteer units accepted. Prigozhin was the only one to refuse. The Ministry of Defense said it would stop paying him and supplying ammunition and spare parts. Realizing that he was losing everything, Prigogine decided to give it a shot. This explains his absurd statements in April and May. It will end like the Algiers putsch

Posted by: Xalas | Jun 24 2023 11:29 utc | 77

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 24 2023 10:50 utc | 60 + 69
Apologies for duplication didn't see your commts before posting similar I will try like hell not to duplicate again.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 11:30 utc | 78

What's more, Wagner fighters aren't even on the same page as Prigozhin. They're releasing vids from Rostov asking for public support, that they don't intend to fight anyone and are merely there to ask for more ammo.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 11:31 utc | 79

Posted by: cafe con leche | Jun 24 2023 11:22 utc | 77

Jeez i get sick and tired of the Putin should have fully invaded Ukraine in 2014.

Have you ever actually thought for more than a nanosecond that in 2014 Putin did not have the weapons or resources for a full scale war.

This is bloody obvious to anyone other than a 5 year old. It was not until 2018 that he announced any of his new wonder weapons and I can assume that even then they had very, very few. He did demos in Syria and did his best to tell the world that he was powerful again, but while he was not lying, he was deliberately over rating his capacities (for good reasons). In 2014 he had many supply problems for food and resources.

Even in 2022 I do not think he felt ready. Clearly he still was short of wonder weapons and in some areas he was deficient. However fear of Ukraine with nukes and possibly bioweapons forced his hand.

Did he have the resources for a full scale invasion in 2022. I suspect not. Clearly the army was a shambles so I think he grasped how dangerous it would be.

This prggy insurrection has long been expected. the only issue has been knowing just who was bought.

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 11:31 utc | 80

@ Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 24 2023 11:07 utc | 72

Bro, i think the psyop cope theory definitively already left the building last night to anyone with an IQ over 50, and never much featured as all that likely to any rational, objective and intelligent observer.

I could be wrong of course , but i think some serious and consequential sh1t is about to go down. You either bounce back 10x stronger and more determined and go scorched earth on all enemies, foreign and domestic, or you don't come back from something like this.

Erdogan came back stronger and he was merciless, but he also wasn't in the middle of fighting a major war to distract him, and he still had to shake hands a play nice with the same NATO folks who were behind the coup attempt on him.

What will Putin do? If this war has come to threaten the Russian State at its core, whatever the reason, and there are more than a few for many to see now are of his own doing, he has no choice but to escalate now and hope to wrap it up by putting the fear of God into NATO before they or others like Prighozhin smell more blood.

I suspect the only reason Prighozhin is still breathing is so he can sing about all those who put him up to this, or at the very least, to rule out any possibility of never finding out.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 24 2023 11:32 utc | 81

Et Tu @6: "...this episode has given all the crazy neocons just what they needed too prove they are not delusional in their ambitions. It is just what they wanted to pour more fuel on the fire now."

Excellent observation! And just when the Ukro Nazis were pulling back from their "counteroffensive" due to being mauled. What terrible timing, eh? Just when peace was about to break out!

It is fascinating how western mass media has instantly jumped all over this with gleeful predictions of civil war in Russia. They know Prighozin has jerked their chains before with ridiculous nonsense and made fools out of the Empire's presstitutes, but those presstitutes cannot help themselves. Prighozin hand feeds them bullshit and they have no choice but to swallow it with a smile. Im sure Prighozin gets a kickout of the whole arrangement.

First of all, Wagner is mostly on vacation until sometime in July. Maybe some of them wanted to go to the Rostov-on-Don area for a few days?

Second, and more to the point, when did Prighozin become the commander of the Wagner forces? When did he become part of the chain of command in any way? It has been pointed out repeatedly that he is just a businessman and chief publicist for Wagner. He has little to no real military experience, much less command experience. Can someone in that position actually issue military commands and have forces that are not technically or practically under his command obey? Command by social media, basically? Nonsense!

Moving multiple whole divisions around requires the efforts of the entire command staff from squad leaders up to major generals. The chef cannot just assume command and the troops self-organize in a huge mass to follow his orders. That is Hollywood silliness and fairy tales. Military formations have officer corps for a reason, and that is, even with well-trained troops, giving direction to more than a couple dozen soldiers at a time is like herding cats. One guy cannot command a division without an entire hierarchy of officers to coordinate and keep everyone on task.

So whatever is going on with Wagner, the entire officer corps is onboard with it. And Prighozin is not at the top of that chain of command.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 11:35 utc | 82

If you want reasonable logic, I give you this: an operation to divert attention from something else. Probably a large attack. Probably to take Kharkiv.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Jun 24 2023 10:38 utc | 51

Jörgen - would a reasonable person believe that the Ukr military would just drop it's guard despite any kind of information coming from the regions bordering the frontline? What are the exact mechanics of the "distraction"? Think it through step by step.

Posted by: Jake the Snake | Jun 24 2023 11:37 utc | 83

They are shutting down the roads leading to Moscow and bombing the highways.

Posted by: d0ng | Jun 24 2023 11:40 utc | 84

There was a disagreement about signing contracts but it is mysterious that this should turn into a rebellion within 10 days.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 24 2023 11:28 utc | 84
Unless it's accurate that most of his leverage would run out July 1st, ie the 'now-or-never' timeline, which I think has more to do with maximum leverage for effect and less that names on a piece of paper, including paychecks might change or expire at the turn of the month.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 24 2023 11:26 utc
"he won't be going anywhere."
That is assuming he's there of course and not with the convoy or elsewhere.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 11:42 utc | 85

Posted by: watcher | Jun 24 2023 11:31 utc | 83

Have you ever actually thought for more than a nanosecond that in 2014 Putin did not have the weapons or resources for a full scale war.

ukraine's army in 2014 would have lasted no more than a few hours. in fact their army would have deserted / switched sides while the political issue of Yanukovich's removal (and the "suicide" by his entire cabinet) was still hot.

Posted by: cafe con leche | Jun 24 2023 11:43 utc | 86

a lot of hate on chefs here the head of wagner was a great chef as a special forces chef you learn one thing at chef school to cook.
i was a paramedic a doctor a husban a lover long before i went to special forces chef school.never udderestimate a cook.
the head figure of wagner group is not insane his methods are not say you say no method.
maybe it is you lot who are insane Prigozhin are only hope.
the glorious day trips to chabad moscow and st pertersbourg will be a wagner group home coming this is not the end but the begining of the end of the begging end.
zion wins oded yinon won
come and see the new russia whats the rat new hitlers flee freedum is a happy brew
drink but light
embrace pride month all the way to moscow.

Posted by: charles drake | Jun 24 2023 11:44 utc | 87

It is fascinating how western mass media has instantly jumped all over this with gleeful predictions of civil war in Russia.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 11:35 utc | 85

This glee in the western media has been noticeable for weeks. Maybe Prigozhin just likes the publicity or maybe there is something more to it.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 24 2023 11:45 utc | 88

alek_a wrote:

" How the fortunes of the West has changed "..... bla bla bla


To alek_a and their fellow travellers-

Log off the Internet and take a Valium dude.

Posted by: Lurker Above | Jun 24 2023 12:00 utc | 89

Brian Berletic about to go on a panel with Reportify, Carl Zha and Angelo Guiliano in 15 mins.

Posted by: citron | Jun 24 2023 12:01 utc | 90

@ 85.

That might be more to do with a belated "oh f**k" realization that Prig jumped the shark with this little stunt. I'd start saying "it wiznae me" too...


@ 87.

Funny, I don't think it'll effect anything much going forward except Prigs criminal record, (soon to be defunct & rebranded) Wagner's ownership status, maybe a few heads rolling in the security apparatus & the Western talking points for a few weeks.

There is a chronic tendency around here to attach a grossly exaggerated importance an event.

This isn't a latter day Kornilov affair nor is it comparable to the 2016 coup against Erdogan.

Prig is an old Yeltsin-era oligarch who *had* managed to play ball with the Kremlin, but was now slowly getting his toys taken away (its happened to many others).

So he spat the dummy out in a deluded, egotistical & quixotic attempt to salvage his fortunes). He just happened to have a more armed goombas than the average "dissident oligarch". Fleeing would've smarter but like Khodorkovsky he thought he was "too big to jail".

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jun 24 2023 12:02 utc | 91

Posted by: cafe con leche | Jun 24 2023 11:43 utc | 89

It was never military capability dictating Putin’s actions, but financial. In 2014 Russia’s military was nascent, but it’s economic resilience to Western pressure was weak. The eight intervening years might have increased Ukrainian CE, but it also robbed their Western backers of the most effective precision guided weapon in their arsenal, targeted sanctions.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 24 2023 12:03 utc | 92

To be fair, the timing of this coup does not make any sense. You do not start a coup in a moment of relative stability, e.g. just after a major offensive by the enemy is repelled and the front is quiet, but in a moment of relative instability, e.g. in the middle of major fightings.

Posted by: SG | Jun 24 2023 12:04 utc | 93

I feel oddly sympathetic though. Were I a couple of thousand years younger...

Could it be that Prigo has just found out, that life is much better without medication?

Who really _owns_ the company?

Posted by: Catilina | Jun 24 2023 12:06 utc | 94

@ Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 24 2023 11:35 utc | 85

Not sure if there was any sarcasm but i'll focus and move on since you raised some interesting points..

Re: Wagner chain of command, from my understanding, Wagner operates with a far less vertical, traditional military structure, which is one of the factors that gave it some tactical advantages under certain combat conditions, and was one of the sources of its contempt when having to deal with the more rigidly structured MoD.

I know he's 'just' a Youtube blogger (said the barfly..), but Alex does some sound research and this and other sources are what i am basing my understanding of Wagner PMC on:

Therefore, your assertion that Prighozhin is not in charge of Wagner and this mutiny extends to high ranking officers, sure, he would never do it alone unless he is totally crazy, but from the footage i have seen of the Wagner convoys at least, it seems like quite a disorganised rag tag bunch of ex convicts in uniform, unfortunately armed to the teeth with military gear, up to and including Artillery, Pantsirs and Tanks. But, being a mercenary army, it also makes sense they pledge fealty to their paymaster, ie Prighozhin, and normal military structures would not be necessary once the word is out and, presumably, those in on the conspiracy begin to execute their preordained plan?

So i see a few holes in your argument, which by the way, i am not sure i understand entirely as to how you see this is as manifesting exactly?

Are you implying we are witnessing an armed rebellion across the entire Russian Army, not limited to Wagner PMC?? If most units let them just drive by so far, it is not just because they don't have a death wish and won't fire on them unless specifically ordered to, lest they be fired back upon themselves? It seems at least the Air Force so far has not been shy of letting Wagner know who's orders they will ultimately follow. If it does turn out there are other factions in play within the MoD... was could be all in for a very bumpy ride.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 24 2023 12:08 utc | 95

Is Prigozhin doing a Dagalo? When the head of the Sudanese army Burhan sought to incorporate the RSF militia into the Sudanese armed forces Hemedti (Dagalo) attacked the Sudanese army in a takeover bid.

Posted by: Orage | Jun 24 2023 12:08 utc | 96

Excellent reference cited (Machiavelli part, not anal cyst part).

Posted by: Josh | Jun 24 2023 12:09 utc | 97

Key to the solution is the civil population. If they act pretty much the same way the turks did in 2016, meaning huge crowds surrounding the wagner people, the situation will be solved within hours. Wagners wount shoot at civilian russians.

If the population doesnt act, there will be doubt about the mood in society and the whole thing may get out of hand.

Posted by: Orgel | Jun 24 2023 12:11 utc | 98

Posted by: SG | Jun 24 2023 12:04 utc | 99
What suggested ukraine's offensive was "over", and that the front (any of them) was quiet? I mean I get that there was a bit of a lull in some areas last day or two (and even that is arguable) but that's only relative to say last week or week before. The fronts have been anything but 'quiet' this week overall, including overnight and into today.

Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 24 2023 12:12 utc | 99

People are talking about this as though Prigozhin is some sort of Mongol Warlord with an iron-fisted rule on the decision-making and tactical operations of Wagner. He is not, in any way, a military leader, the actual strategic, tactical, and logistical operations are carried out by Wagner's officer corp, many of whom are high-ranking 'ex' Russian military. The likelihood of some of them not also having ties to the FSB or GRU is small. If this was a true coup attempt it would almost certainly required beginning with an internal purge of these figures, something that would have been noted.

God knows what's actually happening but one possibility is that this is just another bout of Prigozhin's 'negotiations', i.e. throw an incredibly dramatic and histrionic fit in order to raise public awareness of his grievances against the MOD and (in this case) to get a better deal on the recent requirement to sign up as official RU forces. If so he may have miscalculated and finally crossed over Putin's tolerance for his antics. Even in that case, the Kremlin would be perfectly capable of dealing with a single rogue personality on its own territory and, given its utter dependence on the MOD for its logistics (and several other factors), there is no way Wagner as an entity is going to go to war with its Motherland, in the service of NATO states that have branded them a terrorist organisation.

The maskirovka possibility also seems far more likely that such an implausible coup, but if so this type of elaborate set-up requires a hell of a punchline.

Posted by: Brannagyn | Jun 24 2023 12:14 utc | 100

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