Nova Kakhova Dam Breach - Updated (12:15 UTC)
Updated throughout (12:15 UTC)
A few hours ago an alleged explosion blew up the Nova Kakhova dam in Ukraine.
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It was either that or structural damage from previous strikes.
Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel - 6:31 UTC · Jun 6, 2023The dam was already under enormous strain and damaged.
Then things got worse. On 2 June, it looks like a road over the dam failed. That could be indicative of a larger structural failure.
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In consequence the huge reservoir behind the dam is now flooding lower level land south of Kherson (Xepcoh). The pictures show the before and after of potential flooding due to the breach:
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Previously the Russian army had pulled back its troops from the northern part of Kherson oblast because a dam breach would endanger their supply route.
We do not know yet how much of the dam has been damaged. How much water will be flowing out of it depends on the part of the wall that is still standing below the current water level.
Of note is that the Ukraine had previously filled the upstream dams on the Dnieper to the brim to increase the potential damage. Those waters were released in early May. Notice the date of the following tweet.
ZOKA @200_zoka - 14:12 UTC · May 4, 2023Water level in Kakhovka reservoir in Zaporozhye region risen by 17 m and almost reached critical level. Under threat of destruction of dam in Kamenka Dneprovskaya, dozens of villages may be flooded.
Kyiv opened the floodgates in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye.
Embedded video
The Ukrainian propagandists are claiming that the Russian blew up the dam. That is however unlikely.
On October 21 2022 Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, sent a letter to the UN Secretary General about the plans of the Kiev regime to destroy the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
In a report about last years Kherson counteroffensive the Washington Post reported of Ukrainian plans and attempts to blow up the dam:
[Maj. Gen. Andriy] Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.
Destroying its own infrastructure is nothing new for Ukrainian servicemen. In April 2022 the New York Times already noted this:
What happened in Demydiv was not an outlier. Since the war’s early days, Ukraine has been swift and effective in wreaking havoc on its own territory, often by destroying infrastructure, as a way to foil a Russian army with superior numbers and weaponry.Demydiv was flooded when troops opened a nearby dam and sent water surging into the countryside. Elsewhere in Ukraine, the military has, without hesitation, blown up bridges, bombed roads and disabled rail lines and airports. The goal has been to slow Russian advances, channel enemy troops into traps and force tank columns onto less favorable terrain.
Quoting the above Washington Post piece Andrew Korybko points to a possible motive for today's demolishing of the dam:
[Kovalchuk's] remark about how “the step remained a last resort” is pertinent to recall at present considering that the first phase of Kiev’s NATO-backed counteroffensive completely failed on Monday according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Just like Ukraine launched its proxy invasion of Russia in late May to distract from its loss in the Battle of Artyomovsk, so too might does it seem to have gone through with Kovalchuk’s planned war crime to distract from this most recent embarrassment as well.
The most recent embarrassment was the failure of yesterday's attack near Novodarovka and Levadnoye. As the Russian Ministry of Defense noted in a special statement:
As a result of active and self-sacrificing actions of the Vostok Group of Forces, which displayed courage and heroism, the enemy has been stopped, and the set tasks haven’t been achieved. The AFU formations and military units suffered significant losses.Total AFU losses in South Donetsk direction were over 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen, 28 tanks, including FRG-manufactured 8 Leopard tanks, three French-manufactured AMX-10 wheeled tanks, and 109 armoured fighting vehicles.
(I have seen pictures of the destroyed AMX-10 reconnaissance tanks but not yet of any destroyed Leopard.)
Interestingly the 'western' media, pressed into compliance by the Ukrainian government, were thanked for their pro-Ukrainian reporting on the issue around the time the dam was breached:
Michael Tracey @mtracey - 9:42 UTC · Jun 6, 2023Top advisor of Zelensky thanks journalists in advance today for helping the Ukraine government win the "diplomatic and informational battle" around the bombing of the Nova Kakhovka dam. Helpful reminder of the state imperatives these journalists are expected to abide by Image
The attached image of the top advisor's Telegram post has a 3:03 timestamp.
The destruction of the dam is certainly not to Russia's favor. As the 'western' aligned Moscow Times noted six months ago (link corrected):
In a catastrophic scenario, destroying the dam could send a highly destructive flood wave down the Dnipro River, causing severe flooding in large areas of southern Ukraine. Backswell would also likely flood the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro.However, terrain levels mean the flooding would likely be worse on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, making a detonation of explosives on the dam an unlikely move for Moscow.
"[Destroying the dam] would mean Russia essentially blowing its own foot off,” military analyst Michael Kofman said on the War on the Rocks podcast last month.
“[It] would flood the Russian-controlled part of Kherson [region]… much more than the western part that Ukrainians are likely to liberate."
And the secondary effects of blowing the dam could be just as severe for Russia.
Lowering the river level behind the dam threatens both water supplies to Moscow-annexed Crimea and risks cutting off access to cooling water for the Russian-controlled nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.
Water from the dam was also used to irrigate the southern Kherson oblast. The lack of water will disable the power generation at the dam which supplied the south.
The flood is likely to dissipate in a week or two but that does not change the major damages to the parts that Russia claims as its own.
The water will then have destroyed Russian mine fields on the left bank (seen from the spring) of the river. This will open routes for Ukrainian troops to cross the river and to attack into the southern Kherson oblast towards Crimea. There have previously reports that the Ukraine received bridging and ferry equipment for exactly this purpose.
Posted by b on June 6, 2023 at 8:24 UTC | Permalink
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Posted by: Stephane | Jun 6 2023 8:45 utc | 2
The road and top of the dam was breached on around May 29th and Meleleuca, another person that I cant remember and myself commented on it here about it at the time. I had seen a video purporting to be taken by Ukro troops and the water was already coming over the breach.
What was strange was that no one in the blogosphere or Russian official channels seemed to have noticed it or at least commented on it this last week. To my mind any breach or cut in the road even ,would have been significantly newsworthy. Was it purposefully downgraded and goven low news value for some reason? Noone seems to know about how it has become so large a breach or about the explosion . What is going on ?
Posted by: Boy | Jun 6 2023 8:45 utc | 3
Seems to me the dam probably simply gave way. And it seems to me it is for the best from the Allied point of view for it removes a potential threat.
When the allies move to regain Kherson they will now have a dried up flood plain to cross with no potential danger of a dam breach.
Crossing a flood plain to a citadel on high ground not a pleasant task but they quit the citadel so they must have anticipated. Perhaps they have no intention of taking Kherson itself but simply acquiring it as part of the whole parcel when they conquer Kiev in some other way.
IF they can fight at all.
And Rolo Slavskiy and Prigozhin make that sound very unlikely:
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/prigozhin-demands-200k-men-to-form?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=795903&post_id=126336592&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🌊 The Destruction of the #Kakhovskaya HPP - What is known as of 8:00⚡️
🗓 At night, the #Kakhovskaya HPP was partially destroyed. Officials are confused about the testimony: then they talk about an explosion, then destruction as a result of an explosion, then the cumulative effect of previous fire impacts.11 of the 28 spans were destroyed. Restoration will require serious efforts and almost capital construction. But at the same time, the main "ridge" of the dam is intact, and now we are observing the "overflow" of water through the destroyed section. Water kills from the reservoir at a rate of 15 cm per hour.
▪️ The islands and the gray zone in the #Dnieper basin are in the flooding zone. Ukrainian formations are trying to evacuate from the islands, Russian units are firing at them.
In addition, up to 300 houses in #Dneprany and #Korsunka may be flooded. In Novaya Kakhovka, the water reached the coastal street. There is no mass evacuation.
▪️ There is no threat to the #Zaporizhia NPP at the moment: reserve measures for water supply are provided for the facilities in case of such disasters.
▪️ The Ukrainian propaganda puts the blame on #Russia, accusing the Russian Federation of wanting to create a catastrophe in #Zaporozhye and #Dnepropetrovsk regions.
📜 RYBAR; 6 Jun 2023, 08:04
https://t.me/sitreports/9797
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 8:59 utc | 5
"They did it, no they did it"
A third possibility is that the dam spontaneously failed due to the *intentional increased storage* forces upon the previously partly damaged, AFU-bombed gates.
Also, it looks to have taken the AFU by surprise due to the panic evacuations of AFU troops stationed on the low lying Kherson islands. You'd think they'd forewarn them. So maybe it was actually an unintended flood.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 8:59 utc | 6
It is reported that this is the now undermined Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the Kherson region.
An ecological catastrophe begins in the region. It will flood the territories controlled by the Russians to a greater extent. Where the coast was mined and fortifications were set up. Also partially Kherson.The Russians previously simulated the flooding that would happen if the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was blown up.
Here it is worth understanding that the dam was undermined. We need to look for who benefits from it right now and for what?
We are not hinting at anything, but we will try to give pros and cons.Always look for who benefits!
Why is this the work of the Office of the President (Ukraine):
What was needed was a global tragedy, about which the whole world would speak and actualize the Ukrainian crisis. It will give impetus to the transfer of new weapons, warm up the case before the NATO summit, divert attention from the offensive, which is already “stalling”, disrupt what Ze promised in the SA and Japan (he promised to open the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which for him was equated with political death ). Further, Crimea will again face water shortages.Further, this will create the preconditions for a catastrophe at the ZaNPP, since the water level will drop critically. But, this will enable the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance on a wide front through the Kakhovka reservoir, which can become a shallow "estuary".
Russians:
This will temporarily expand the water barrier in the Kherson region, which may temporarily protect against the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was in no hurry to attack on this flank (although this will wash away all the minefields and defense installations of the Russians).Plus, it will expose the Russians to the rear in the Zaporozhye region, the reservoir will shrink there. Again, everyone will blame and demonize the Russians, demand stronger sanctions, and so on.
Think!
https://t.me/legitimniy/15537
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:00 utc | 7
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President instructed all of its LOM and TG channels to disperse the narrative about the Russians deliberately blowing up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.At Bankovaya, they want to achieve two goals: firstly, to shift the responsibility for the shelling of the hydroelectric power station, which violated the structure, from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and secondly, to form the image of a terrorist out of Russia.
Old videos of HIMARS strikes are deliberately thrown into the network to show the deliberate undermining of the dam.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18140
The dam was simply washed away by water, due to the destroyed spans, which any person with education understands, the resistance of materials has done its job. Moreover, the fact that the hydroelectric dam stood for so long after the HIMARS missile strikes confirms the qualitative approach of Soviet architects.Now in the information war, each side will try to blame each other, but the dam was filmed by cameras 24 by 7 and the explosion would have been filmed instantly, which means it did not exist.
Colleagues, you are right about the visual control of the dam from two sides, which means that now the campaign will begin from two sides.Unfortunately, our country has become a platform in the geopolitical game of two blocs for reformatting the international system.
The longer the war goes on, the more destruction and casualties there will be.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18141
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:05 utc | 8
Seems to me the dam probably simply gave way. Posted by: abrogard | Jun 6 2023 8:53 utc | 4
This is just stupid.
It happens on its own exactly in the early hours of the day the Ukrainian offensive starts? Just like that?
Come on, use your brain.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:05 utc | 9
Colleagues, at the moment there are a lot of questions about the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, first of all, who benefits from it, and if the Russians blew it up, then why now?After all, it was much more effective to blow it up during the landing of the Ukrainian troops, and not now. Ukrainian telegram channels did their job, posting photos and videos of the dam explosion, but it turned out to be an arrival from HIMARS.
There is no actual video of the explosion of the hydroelectric power station, despite the visual control, which forced the Western media to change their approach to covering the topic.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18144
Our source in the OP said that yesterday the Dnieper HPP massively opened the floodgates and dumped water, they did this on instructions from Bankova.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18146
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:06 utc | 10
Well whatever threat the dam posed is now gone and an Unkown has become a Known
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 6 2023 9:07 utc | 11
Now in the information war, each side will try to blame each other, but the dam was filmed by cameras 24 by 7 and the explosion would have been filmed instantly, which means it did not exist.
Or it was an underwater explosion. Potentially even non-conventional.
Already way back in September-October last year there was talk about plans to blow up the dam by floating explosives down the reservoir from the Ukranian side.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:07 utc | 12
There is no water rise at the Zaporozhye NPP, there is no threat to the safety of the station due to the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam;There is no threat of flooding in Crimea due to the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, Aksenov said
There is a risk that the North Crimean Canal will become shallow. Drinking water is more than enough. Work is underway to minimize water losses in the canal, the Governor of Crimea added.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/49393
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:08 utc | 13
An engineering model of the consequences of Kakhovka dam destruction:
Damn destruction has been prevalent in the Donbass for over 14 years. Now it spreads to Kherson.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 9:08 utc | 14
Ukrainian Evacuations have begun
The Evacuation has begun in the Ukraine-controlled Kherson region
This was announced by the head of OVA Prokudin. After 5 hours the water level will be critical according to local media
Picture of damage
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/49392
Videos of the damage
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32495
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32499
Regarding Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station
It is reported that the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station has completely gone under water.
https://t.me/intelslava/48478
Regarding the Nuclear Power Station
Readers are worried about how the damage to the Kakhovskaya HPP dam will affect the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which takes water from the reservoir backed up by the dam.In short, it will not have any effect, everything is fine.
Now for more details. During operation, the nuclear reactor requires a large volume of water for cooling. There are six reactors at ZNPP (1 on the diagram), and for their cooling the cooling pond filled from the Kakhovka reservoir (2) and two cooling towers (3) are normally used.
At the Kakhovka dam only the crest and gates are damaged, the water level in the reservoir because of this could fall by two or three meters, which is within the seasonal fluctuations. That is, even normal operation of the plant at full capacity would not be disrupted now.
The station, however, has been shut down and put into cold shutdown since last September. Water is still needed to cool the remaining fuel in the reactors and holding ponds, but orders of magnitude less than for the reactors at capacity. There will be enough water from the Dnieper even in case of complete destruction of the dam and release of the reservoir, which, as you may recall, has not happened yet.
Soviet engineers designed the plant, they provided for anything, even a war.
(Translated with DeepL)
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 6 2023 9:08 utc | 15
Now we are waiting for the Office of the President to finally do what today's tragedy was created for. The OP will send an army on the offensive in the area from the Zaporizhzhya hydroelectric power station to Kakhovskaya, where the Russians did not prepare defensive redoubts so much. But, this will happen after the shallowing of the Kakhovka reservoir.The main thing is that this time the Russians do not really gouge in response and do not already demolish the Zaporizhzhya hydroelectric power station, at the moment when the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on the offensive. Then the catastrophe in Ukraine will worsen.
We have been writing for a long time that the strategy professed by the OP under the supervision of the British is scorched earth (the inhabitants of the Kiev region will not let you lie, they are now constantly drowned due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine blew up dams during the retreat). The tactics of the British is simple: "to achieve the goal, any methods are good."
The German press is already changing the headlines, as they understand that it is possible to get into trouble.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15540
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:10 utc | 16
Well, the "US trained" Ukies blew up the dam. So, at least now, let the Ukies make that NATO 'counteroffensive' and see what happens. We would be able to see how that "US trained" mean. It would be more like Rambo Hollywood stuff. So, let the Ukies come...quicker the better, so we can see the Ukie/US/NATO capitulation. :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 9:12 utc | 17
Now we are waiting for the Office of the President to finally do what today's tragedy was created for. The OP will send an army on the offensive in the area from the Zaporizhzhya hydroelectric power station to Kakhovskaya, where the Russians did not prepare defensive redoubts so much. But, this will happen after the shallowing of the Kakhovka reservoir.
They won't be able to do that for weeks, if not months. Water levels will drop, but what will be left behind is impassable mud that will take forever to dry up. If they try sending equipment there, it will get stuck and it will be a turkey shoot. Let them try.
This is why this is such a strange act -- it doesn't really hugely benefit Ukraine militarily. Unless the idea is to screw Crimea and the Russian 2/3 of Kherson while creating an excuse for direct NATO involvement.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:14 utc | 18
Considering insider reports from Zelensky's office, need to divert attention away from the recent counter-offensive debacle, need to create yet another media-catastrophe to focus MSM attention on Ukraine in a favorable manner to Zelensky. It might be plausible to call spade a spade - Ukraine operation with the help of British "expertise".
Britain has a long history of bombing infrastructure and committing terrorist attack and even nuclear terrorism inside Russia, Ukraine and Europe.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 9:16 utc | 19
https://vk.com/wall347260249_678675
On the situation with the undermining of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. So far, briefly (information from the field has not yet reached, as of yesterday - everything was very calm, no one expected anything).1. Undermining clearly has a pre-planned purposeful character and occupies an important place in the enemy's offensive plans.
2. So far, the following main goals are visible:
- "wash away" our troops from the left bank of the Dnieper below Novaya Kakhovka. Including all defensive structures, all minefields will be "washed away", all field ammunition depots will be flooded, all property that they will not have time to load and take out will be completely or partially destroyed (and there will be a lot of this, unfortunately);
- create conditions for the capture of the Kinburn Spit (which will also be partially flooded and turned into an island by flooding). If the enemy succeeds in capturing the Kinburn Spit now, he will unblock the Ochakov port and the mouth of the Dnieper. It will be extremely difficult to recapture the scythe (in the current conditions, it is practically impossible in general);
- create a threat (in a week or two) of forcing the Dnieper in a wide area above Novaya Kakhovka - after a very significant decrease in the level of the reservoir and the same narrowing of the current water barrier. Whether they plan to force it or not - "grandmother said in two" But the command of the RF Armed Forces will have totransfer without fail (otherwise they will definitely force and create a bridgehead)
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:21 utc | 20
The Ukrainians, as always, blamed the Russians, they fired on themselves and destroyed the dam.
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 6 2023 9:27 utc | 21
The Ukrainians, as always, blamed the Russians, they fired on themselves and destroyed the dam.
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 6 2023 9:27 utc | 19
----------------------
That's what the 'western' MSM does, anyway. Only this time, the 'western' politicos are silent on this matter. Maybe, their 'counteroffensive' had flopped. The US/NATO trained and planed stuff... :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 9:33 utc | 22
"It is reported that the enemy began to dump water at the DneproGES, located upstream of the Dnieper. The enemy does this in order to forcibly increase the area of flooding caused by the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station."
Posted by: rk | Jun 6 2023 9:35 utc | 23
"It is reported that the enemy began to dump water at the DneproGES, located upstream of the Dnieper. The enemy does this in order to forcibly increase the area of flooding caused by the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station."Posted by: rk | Jun 6 2023 9:35 utc | 21
But the Russians did it...
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:42 utc | 24
British secretary of state for foreign affairs Cleverly was yesterday in Kiev and today the dam ruptures. Delivering go-ahead?
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 9:44 utc | 25
Lev Gudadze update on Kherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQaq4FJI2ao
Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 6 2023 9:49 utc | 26
British secretary of state for foreign affairs Cleverly was yesterday in Kiev and today the dam ruptures. Delivering go-ahead?Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 9:44 utc | 23
Nah ... not needed ... I mean, who in their right mind would take advice from someone named Cleverly? Its a bit like buying a used car off someone named Honest ... you'd likely be asking for trouble so probably not a good idea ...
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jun 6 2023 9:50 utc | 27
British secretary of state for foreign affairs Cleverly was yesterday in Kiev and today the dam ruptures. Delivering go-ahead?Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 9:44 utc | 23
Well, Medvedev threatened them that they are targets now, he then demonstratively goes to Kiev, nothing happens to him, dam blows up.
What does that tell us?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:52 utc | 28
"The water will then have destroyed Russian mine fields on the left bank of the river. This will open routes for Ukrainian troops to cross the river and to attack into the southern Kherson oblast towards Crimea. There have previously reports that the Ukraine received bridging and ferry equipment for exactly this purpose."
This is an obvious non-starter. First, the mine fields are irrelevant given Russian air power and artillery and it's by no means certain that Russian fortifications such as dragon's teeth and pillboxes can be destroyed by water, let alone Russian logistics centers.
Second, a flooded river is not conducive to a crossing until the waters recede.
Third, any fording operation is frought with difficulties, even not including air power and artillery. It's not how one wants to start a counteroffensive.
Fourth, if the river can wash away Russian fortifications, then that is ipso facto evidence that Ukraine can't pass it successfully either; if they wait until it's dry again, the Russians will simply rebuild the fortifications. And again, where is a map showing exactly which Russian fortification echelons are affected by the flooding?
If that was the plan, it's a stupid plan.
In reality, "the plan" is nothing more than another stupid PR move by Ukraine - blame the Russians for another "war crime". It's irrelevant to anything tactically, operationally or strategically. There is no evidence I've seen - like, an actual map of Russian positions vis-a-vis the flood - which establishes any real problem for the Russians, nor is there any evidence that Ukraine will be able to use it to their advantage. All I've seen are assertions to that effect with no real evidence.
As for NATO using this as an excuse to enter the war, that may be what the Ukrainians thought - but it's not going to happen because NATO has nothing to enter the war with - certainly nothing without months of preparation, by which time Russia will have rebuilt its fortifications, not to mention finishing the destruction of the Ukraine forces in Donbass long before NATO could intervene. Again, the upcoming NATO exercises have nothing whatever to do with any such intervention.
So again - a stupid plan. I agree with Martyanov that this is all the Ukies and the neocons can come up with because they're clueless imbeciles.
And anyone who seriously discusses whether the Russians blew up the dam is simply a moron.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 9:56 utc | 29
Last October, Zelensky predicted an attack just like this one, of course blaming the Russians, although it would cause serious damage to Crimea.
We have information that Russian terrorists mined the dam and aggregates of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. (...)The water supply of a large part of the south of Ukraine may be destroyed. This Russian terrorist attack could leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant without water for cooling – water for the ZNPP is taken from the Kakhovka Reservoir. Even the operation of the canal, which was built to supply water to Crimea and which is periodically allegedly "cared about" by Moscow, will be completely destroyed. This is the real attitude of Russia towards our Ukrainian Crimea. And in general, the devastating environmental, humanitarian, man-made consequences of this single Russian terrorist attack may become such that it will be called a historical disaster.
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/rosijskij-teror-maye-prograti-ukrayina-j-usya-yevropa-mayut-78613
His explanation for why Russia was going to cause all that damage to territory it controlled was because it would be forced out and have to abandon it, including Crimea!
Undermining the dam would mean a massive catastrophe. Of course, we understand that the occupiers are indifferent to what happens to Ukrainian territory. With this act of terrorism they could destroy, among other things, the possibility of supplying Crimea with water from the Dnipro. The North Crimean Canal will simply disappear if the Kakhovka dam is destroyed. If Russia is planning such a terrorist attack, if they’re seriously considering such a scenario, it means that the terrorists understand very clearly: it’s not only Kherson that they cannot hold, but also the entire south of our country, including Crimea.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/21/zelensky-says-russia-is-preparing-a-terrorist-attack-on-kakhovka-dam
But the real identity of who was planning such an attack - and their motive - was known back then (italics are added).
However, presidential office adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said that mining the dam was all part of a "Surovikin plan" that involved flooding territory to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63341251
Posted by: Brendan | Jun 6 2023 9:59 utc | 30
Who is going to blow up the Kakhovka Dam? Analysis and Consequences of such a potential attack.
https://youtu.be/XdoMQz6Cv84
Posted 7 months ago during the period when RF had 37 BTGs and equipment on the north bank of the river. The RF retreated from the north bank due to their stated concerns over maintaining logistic supply to north bank forces if the dam was destroyed.
If the dam had been destroyed at the time RF had its forces on the north bank then it is likely the RF would have been defeated and the UAF would have captured significant stocks of military equipment.
As stated by Boy | Jun 6 2023 8:45 utc | 3:
"The road and top of the dam was breached on around May 29th and Meleleuca, another person that I cant remember and myself commented on it here about it at the time. I had seen a video purporting to be taken by Ukro troops and the water was already coming over the breach."
This damage was the result of UAF HIMARS strikes on the dam and associated roadway.
These HIMARS strikes are reported in the post by Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:05 utc | 6:
"Old videos of HIMARS strikes are deliberately thrown into the network to show the deliberate undermining of the dam."
The RF does not operate HIMARS which is a US weapons system supplied to the UAF.
The Z government has been impounding water in dams upstream from Kakhovka dam. See Down South | Jun 6 2023 9:06 utc | 8:
"Our source in the OP said that yesterday the Dnieper HPP massively opened the floodgates and dumped water, they did this on instructions from Bankova."
Kakhovka dam is understood to be an earth banked gravity dam which has sustained previous damage from HIMARS attacks, damage sufficient to cause the RF to retreat from the north bank and evacuate the civilian population together with all the RF military equipment.
Any increase in water levels behind the dam will result in increased hydraulic head, and this increased pressure against an already weakened dam would be sufficient to cause it to fail. On an earth banked gravity dam once a small leak commences it will continue to enlarge until the entire dam face is swept away - no explosives are required.
If it is proven that UAF released significant amounts of water from the upstream Dnieper HPP, the force of such flood waters may have been sufficient to cause the failure of a dam weakened by previous HIMARS attack.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 10:00 utc | 31
This has the English terrorist group SAS fingerprints all over it. They're not inbred Nazi retards like their ukie clients but they're equally evil.
Posted by: sam | Jun 6 2023 10:02 utc | 32
The BBC news just reported the damn "in Russian controlled Kherson" was partially destroyed.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 6 2023 10:03 utc | 33
Second, a flooded river is not conducive to a crossing until the waters recede.
Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 9:56 utc | 27
----------
So, now Zelly has a justification to say why the 'counteroffensive' cannot get started... :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:03 utc | 34
The BBC news just reported the damn "in Russian controlled Kherson" was partially destroyed.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jun 6 2023 10:03 utc | 31
------------
Its a pity to live in Britain. :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:05 utc | 35
Either russia, ukraine or summer swollen river did it.
Ukies fleeing their posts and being shot at. Kherson evacuation is good for special military offensive. I think suspects, in order of most to least likely:. River, RF, Ukr, by cui bono.
I think it is a big deal, and i think the idea of warcrime is non sense. Laws of war are only written by war. What seems like moral justification is deeper seen to be pragmatic politics. War is political. The real reason nukes aren't used wantonly.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 6 2023 10:08 utc | 36
Watching Bankova’s training manual, how they disperse the narrative of an environmental disaster, blaming the Kremlin for blowing up the dam, we immediately ask ourselves a question.Why is the Kremlin doing this?
According to the logic that the Office of the President and propaganda channels want to instill in everyone, the Russians foolishly banged the dam and create problems for themselves with the provision of Crimea and even Berdyansk with water, the shallowing of the Kakhovka reservoir and the threat of an offensive in this direction, they themselves washed away their defensive ranks in the Kherson region, create some problems for the subsequent functioning of the ZaNPP, give Zelensky a trump card to speak again in all the world's media, dispersing the thesis that the Russian Federation is a terrorist country, demanding new weapons, money and sanctions.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15541
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 10:09 utc | 37
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President decided to convene an extraordinary meeting of the UN and demand new sanctions against Russia, because of the situation with the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.They want to use the situation at Bankovaya to create a new information wave in the world and to get F-16/Patriot supplies from the West.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18148
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 10:11 utc | 38
If it was intentional dam blowing and flooding by Ukraine (and THE FACTS are not proven yet, only suppositions and logical deductions abound), all the ensuing downstream havoc clearly shows the disrespect/contempt Kiev has for its "own" citizens and/or a tacit admission that they're gunna lose Kherson Oblast anyway and are hellbent on destroying as much as possible of "new Russia" as they can, à la Bakhmut, Donetsk City, Mariupol, etc.
Such an incredible thing to do -- what sort of a government does that? -- flood your own people -- given how if there had been NATURAL flooding, pre-2022 Russia and other neighbours would have come to their relief!
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 10:12 utc | 39
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:03 utc | 32
"So, now Zelly has a justification to say why the 'counteroffensive' cannot get started... :)"
Bonus! "Russia commits war crime to prevent the inevitable victory of the Ukrainian offensive!"
Sheer genius on the part of Zelensky - or some UK or CIA intelligence goon...
Plus they get to say for the next few weeks that "Russia will now have to withdraw from southern Ukraine, so Ukraine has achieved a great victory due to the incompetence of the criminal Russia military who not only committed a war crime by flooding southern Ukraine, but also shot themselves in the foot by doing so."
Oh, yeah, one can see all sorts of ways this PR move works for Ukraine. Except, of course, none of it will help the actual strategic situation on the ground - because none of it is real. Just like everything else Ukraine has done for the past 15 months.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 10:14 utc | 40
If the dam had been destroyed at the time RF had its forces on the north bank then it is likely the RF would have been defeated and the UAF would have captured significant stocks of military equipment.
Boy | Jun 6 2023 8:45 utc | 3:
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:21 utc | 18
War is in major part avoiding making mistakes - and enemy committing more and worse mistakes than you. The decision to leave Kherson was avoiding a bullet - correct one.
Now did the river "sweep" defensive positions on the shore of Dnepr? It probably did and will - considering it will extended quite a lot more to the western bank than the eastern one. But as long as they can pull equipment and men out of the positions before that happens, there's nothing lost and they will just create new positions on the new (temporary) western bank of the river.
As far as Kinburn Spit goes - it is irrelevant. The real determinant will be the Zap front, where at least currently AFU attack force is getting whacked. As that offensive goes, so goes any potential breach from Kherson or Kinburn Spit.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 10:15 utc | 41
Posted by: BrightSpark | Jun 6 2023 10:08 utc | 35
LOL I see what you did there.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 10:15 utc | 42
In time, the Ukrainians would come to fathom that Zelensky is a Jew, and all that Jews did in the USSR/Ukraine was to exploit the Slav people. When time comes, the Slav Ukrainians would go against Zelensky, calling him a Jew. This is quite simple in Slav countries.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:24 utc | 43
MoA noticed himars shelling of dam, RF intelligence didn't. MoA noticed Z ordering spills into dam, RF intelligence didn't. RF didnt know dam could flood their positions, they just retreated because RF is incompetent and corrupt. All is lost! Oh, I am so CONCERNED now! Please dont SHADOWBAN me for stating this!
Posted by: Uwdude | Jun 6 2023 10:24 utc | 44
Uwdude | Jun 6 2023 10:24 utc | 43
---
Would you care to tear all your your hair off?!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:26 utc | 45
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce
Posted by Sasha Kots, take a look at the picture, machine translation:
Marshal Malinovsky refutes Bild
The marshal who saved the Dneproges in 1943 responded to the nonsense of the Germans about the self-detonation of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station: Western politicians and the media habitually accused Russia of today's sabotage.
The German edition of Bild wrote so: "The war in Ukraine: Russia blew up a huge dam." Only to someone, but not to the descendants of Manstein, to talk about dam explosions: 80 years ago, Soviet tankers fulfilled the order of Rodion Malinovsky at the cost of their lives - to capture the Dnieper dam mined by the Germans unharmed.
The sarcastic smile of History!
General Ivan Russiyanov recalled that the first T-34 of Junior Lieutenant Boris Suvorov from the 9th Guards Tank Brigade jumped out onto the concrete of the dam: "And suddenly a heavy explosion went off. A huge column of smoke and flame rose in the middle of the dam. The act of vandalism could not be prevented, and yet the Nazis could not fully implement their villainous plan..."
How the Nazis retreating in 1943 prepared for the destruction of the Dneproges, read on the Rodina website
Germany, don’t trip over the same stone thrice.
Posted by: Paco | Jun 6 2023 10:34 utc | 46
THE VIDEOS?
WHERE'S THE BLOODY VIDEOS of the dam being shelled, missiled, undermined explosion last night? There would have been Russian cameras there 24/7. Show us *today's moment of break through*. If not, then it was pre-damaged, coincidental, structural failure.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 10:41 utc | 47
@ ostro | Jun 6 2023 10:26 utc | 45
Uwdude | Jun 6 2023 10:24 utc | 43
---
Would you care to tear all your your hair off?!
Ah, ostro, Uwdude is right.
As if RF didn't have a clue that dam-breach will happen, therefore it got somehow surprised. Not.
The dam is rather irrelevant in doing anything to Energodar NPP and water supply to Crimea. Projected flood modelling is based on a total breach, and that didn't happen.
There is no reason for any concern apart for the poor people being flooded now.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 6 2023 10:41 utc | 48
Big mistake by Russia not to have opened floodgates several months ago and slowly drained reservoir. Reservoir water only needed for NPP cooling, agriculture, Crimea. NPP should have been taken to cold status long ago. Agriculture and Crimea can wait until war over.
As someone noted, now Russia has a bunch of unmapped minefields covered in mud, though probably this is just a minor additional headache added to the vast number of unmapped mines elsewhere in current and former Ukraine.
Posted by: Revelo | Jun 6 2023 10:41 utc | 49
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:52 utc | 26
It tells us that James Cleverly is a total non entity. Not worth a hypersonic strike. I think the saying is ‘don’t shoot the messenger’.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jun 6 2023 10:42 utc | 50
The error of the technologists of the Office of the President, trying to show a beautiful picture of the National Security and Defense Council, lit up all the cameras on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.The question arises, if it was blown up, where is the video? It turns out that the destruction occurred due to damage to the dam from HIMARS missile strikes last year.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18149
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 10:49 utc | 51
🇺🇦💧THE PLAN ALL ALONG cause turns out Kiev regime had been considering blowing up Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam for MONTHS - this Washington Post article from December 2022 (pic above) explains how Ukrainian officer Kovalchuk had plans to flood Dnieper River, even making probing strikes on dam to see if they could destroy floodgates.Back then, Kiev regime held off as step "remained a last resort" … looks like things are going so badly for Kiev that they finally did it, endangering lives of tens of thousands of civilians.
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/21560
Posted by: Down South | Jun 6 2023 10:53 utc | 52
The freaks who blew the dam still have a fleet of nuclear power plants at their disposal. Sociopaths and terrorists with nukes.
Freaks who minimize the evil (and post here) are same as freaks who smile as they kill.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 6 2023 10:55 utc | 53
"As for NATO using this as an excuse to enter the war, that may be what the Ukrainians thought. . . Again, the upcoming NATO exercises have nothing whatever to do with any such intervention.
This statement by Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 9:56 utc | 27 merits the Scots verdict "Not Proven."
Dams like the Dnipro dam in Nova Kahkovka are protected by the laws of war and the Geneva convention. Destroying it would be considered a weapon of mass destruction and an indiscriminate war crime:
"Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I provides:
1. Works and installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.
SOURCE:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42
Destruction of the Nova Kahkovka meets the above criteria. I expect we will see a massive media disinformation operation along the following lines:
1) Label Putin a "war criminal" for causing massive civilian deaths.
2) Claim Putin's criminal act of destruction threatens the melt down of the Zaporozhye NPP releasing a toxic radio-active cloud which threatens to poison all the citizens of Europe and result in decades of birth defects, deformation, and cancer. This will be accompanied by pictures of two headed babies and images showing the effects of DU munitions on the citizens of Iraq.
3) Claim Putin's criminal act demonstrates his lack of concern for innocent citizens of 404 especially those citizens under forced RF occupation in Crimea, all of whom will now be denied drinking water due to loss of intake to the Crimean Canal and the drying of the canal.
4) Claim Putin's criminal act will result in an ecological catastrophe in the extremely sensitive wet lands (and the associated ecological nature preserve) at the mouth of the Denipro.
This media campaign will build toward the June 12 launch of the largest NATO exercise in recent history, one with an unprecedented level of logistic transfers.
The "leaders" of Europe will demand NATO intervene and impose a no fly zone as Putin has placed every person in Europe at risk (also mentioned will be the century of future risk to the yet unborn) through his callous criminal indiscriminate use of "Weapons of Mass Destruction"
Biden will mumble something and the demands will increase as Putin will be painted as an "ecological nazi" lacking all morals and no shred of concern for the welfare of the earth and its peoples, including the hundreds of thousands yet unborn.
Biden will subsequently read a tele-prompter statement that he has been swayed by humanitarian concerns which have caused him to launch the opening salvoes of WW3: "We must destroy in order to protect what we cherish."
You read it here today. By June 12 it will be front page headlines on the NYT and WaPo.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 10:55 utc | 54
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 10:55 utc | 54
"The "leaders" of Europe will demand NATO intervene and impose a no fly zone as Putin has placed every person in Europe at risk (also mentioned will be the century of future risk to the yet unborn) through his callous criminal indiscriminate use of "Weapons of Mass Destruction""
Talk about "not proven."
In fact, talk about "speculative bullshit."
"You read it here today."
Hopefully only once. But of course, concern trolls never post crap once.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 11:02 utc | 55
Please correct the link to the article- not:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88334
But:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88334
btw: Thomas Röper who visited Donbass reported damages to the road on the dam several times.
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru
Posted by: Johnny | Jun 6 2023 11:06 utc | 56
It tells us that James Cleverly is a total non entity. Not worth a hypersonic strike. I think the saying is ‘don’t shoot the messenger’.Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jun 6 2023 10:42 utc | 50
Didn't need a hypersonic strike, a humble Geranium would have done the job.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 11:06 utc | 57
Sushi @54
"We had to destroy the world in order to save it."
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 6 2023 11:10 utc | 58
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 6 2023 9:56 utc | 27
Very good analysis. Ukraine contributed to the dam failure by its shelling in the previous year and, I am guessing, not allowing for repairs of the cracks that presumably formed. Secondly, for not fully explained reason, Ukraine was hoarding water upstream in Dnieper cascade, as discussed here before, and the water levels in Kakhovka dam were about maximal, giving pressure on the damaged dam crest. I watched Oroville Dam video before, a spectacular case of dam disrepair yielding a catastrophe when the water level is close to maximum.
According to Military Summary, immediate effects are bad for Ukraine because their troops occupied islands in Dnieper ... delta? estuary? very flat islands ... and it has to evacuate troops from those islands. The islands were very inhospitable to any military actions, very soggy flat ground not allowing trenches and tricky to access and cross, so Russia did not bother in defending them and put defenses higher.
Impact on Crimea is very mild for this year. Water to Crimea was blocked for years by Ukraine, and now the reservoirs in the peninsula are close to full. Irrigated agriculture will hurt, but it is a minor issue, I even do not know if it was restored after the beginning of this war. Irrigated agriculture in south Kherson, under Russian control, is not a major issue either while war is going on.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 6 2023 11:15 utc | 59
The Link to the aove mentioned Washington Post Article:
Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.
The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/
Posted by: Johnny | Jun 6 2023 11:15 utc | 60
The following link should lead to an IntelSlava 2023-06-06 01:44 post showing UAF shelling of the dam today.
SOURCE:
https://t.me/s/intelslava#:~:text=The%20enemy%20does,01%3A44
Note that this is an example of "plunging fire." The shell was launched from a considerable distance and lands on the RF held side of the river. Given the inherent inaccuracy of long range artillery fire it is unlikely the RF would fire on their own positions. Therefore this must be UAF long range fire on an already damaged dam structure.
The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said he was shocked by the attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, blamed Russia for it and called the incident a "war crime".
SOURCE:
https://t.me/s/intelslava#:~:text=The%20head%20of%20the,03%3A28
Mr Hack needs to learn patience. He also needs more respect for the unscrupulous mendacity of the Former Colonial Powers collectively known as "The West."
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 11:26 utc | 61
Trying to cross a river during a flood doesn't seem like a good idea. Unpredictable eddy's and floating or half buried debris, along with a stronger and less predictable current.
Crossing a river after a flood means trudging through lots of mud and buried or displaced items. Pockets of "quick sand" can be dangerous for a year or more. Drying mud also brings lots of flies and is unhealthy to be in due to contaminates.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jun 6 2023 11:27 utc | 62
I read about it at Simplicius the Thinker at 5 a.m. At that time there have only been app 4 hours since the break of the dam. I was curious about the dam and checked Wikipedia. The had already, a couple of hors after the incident, changed it "Status" to "destroyed" today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant
Sorry for not being able to insert a link. :-(
With regards to which three-letter organisation mainly is behind Wikipedia one can assume they knew in advance what was going to happen.
Posted by: Medved | Jun 6 2023 11:30 utc | 63
Militarily, who is more disadvantaged by the dam failure? Kiev or Russia? Or is the damage about equal to both sides?
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 6 2023 11:30 utc | 64
Charles Michel, former Belgian Prime Minister, current EU Council: Shocked by the unprecedented attack of the Nova Kakhovka dam. The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime - and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable.
Library of Congress. The European War. The Belgians Explode their Own Dams and Defeat of German Units near Mechelen. 25 October 1914
Posted by: Passerby | Jun 6 2023 11:37 utc | 65
The englanders doing one of their dirty tricks to steamroll through the NATO adoption of Ukraine asap. The only way for the west to save face is to escalate the threat to Russia etc etc.
Its as simple as that.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 6 2023 11:41 utc | 66
oooops and I forgot to mention that Japan dumped radioactive waste water into the Pacific Ocean yesterday. So today the IAEA can invent bullshit and accuse Russia of risking the Zap NPP safety (even though there is no risk) and overlook the Japanese FU to the world.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 6 2023 11:46 utc | 67
Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson region blown up by Russian forces - Ukraine's military
Reuters
June 6, 20233:33 AM UTC Updated ago
KYIV, June 6 (Reuters) - The Nova Kakhovka dam in the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine's Kherson region was blown up by Russian forces, the South command of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Tuesday.
"The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified," the command said on its Facebook page.
Reporting by Valentyn Ogirenko in Kyiv and Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Edmund Klamann
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SOURCE:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230606034840/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nova-kakhovka-dam-kherson-region-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukraines-military-2023-06-06/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nova-kakhovka-dam-kherson-region-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukraines-military-2023-06-06/">https://web.archive.org/web/20230606034840/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nova-kakhovka-dam-kherson-region-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukraines-military-2023-06-06/
Note that the images available on IntelSlava do not show the dam as having been "blown up." They do show a dam with damage to its central section and water in significant volume pouring through the rupture.
This flow of water will undermine what is left of the dam leading to complete failure of the structure. Both Wikipedia reporting (See Medved | Jun 6 2023 11:30 utc | 63) and the Reuters reporting are describing future events as present day fact. Good to know Reuters has standards. These "standards" appear to favour biased reporting of possible future events.
Mr Hack, the chief MoA concern troll, will be happy to hear of this bias.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 11:47 utc | 68
Whitewashing Nazis when it suits the Empire:
The New York Times just released a story called “Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History,” about whether or not it means anything that some Ukrainian soldiers have been photographed wearing Nazi Death’s Head or “Totenkopf” symbols. One passage stands out:In November, during a meeting with Times reporters near the front line, a Ukrainian press officer wore a Totenkopf variation made by a company called R3ICH (pronounced “Reich”). He said he did not believe the patch was affiliated with the Nazis. A second press officer present said other journalists had asked soldiers to remove the patch before taking photographs.
https://www.racket.news/p/cover-those-nazi-symbols-please
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 6 2023 11:48 utc | 69
Russia still looks idiotic for allowing such a thing to happen. The Kiev regime should have been destroyed long ago. Why is Zelensky still alive? Why are Western politicians still traipsing in and out of Kiev with impunity? Why is there even any Ukraine left. If Putin doesn't get off his ass, he is going to lose control of the political situation very rapidly. I imagine the mood on the Russian street today is quite foul.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 6 2023 11:49 utc | 70
The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 8:59 utc | 5
Ukraine show regard for Ukrainian troops?
Well. I s’pose. To date, not been a priority, but….
shadowbanned | Jun 6 2023 9:14 utc | 16
creating an excuse for direct NATO involvement.
Winner winner chicken (Kiev) dinner
sam | Jun 6 2023 10:02 utc | 30
has the English terrorist group SAS fingerprints all over it
Yep
Down South | Jun 6 2023 10:11 utc | 37
demand new sanctions against Russia
Sanctions. Yep. That’ll work.
Sushi | Jun 6 2023 10:55 utc | 54
This media campaign will build toward the June 12 launch of the largest NATO exercise in recent history, one with an unprecedented level of logistic transfers.
The "leaders" of Europe will demand NATO intervention
Highly highly likely.
Piotr Berman | Jun 6 2023 11:15 utc | 59
Water to Crimea. There was Putin opening a new canal just a few months ago.
The story was the rapid construction and it involved teams from every Russian oblast….. from memory. Someone less lazy than me will have a link.
(Or try archives MoA)
This Simplicius item was linked multiple times in the earlier thread.
But as new people keep popping by, worth a relink here:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/breaking-hell-breaks-loose-as-khakovka
Read the comments also, as Simplicius engages with his posters. And (some) posts there have expertise ….
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 6 2023 11:52 utc | 71
Lol,
D-Day Damp squib.
To do a seaborne invasion requires a Sea!
Landing craft (sunk suddenly last week…)
Thousands of small boats. Etc.
Now there is one!
Anyway the final offensive to take that bottom promontory can begin in earnest. Then onto Crimea and Beyond🤪
Some armchair idle speculation to finish the morning’s entertainment:
When D-day fails , as it will, the ‘nuclear’ option is to attack and take Transnistra. Moldavia disappears and Natzo Peacekeepers move in and will let the Ukrops declare a victory, announce an armistice and demand a peace treaty as if they have been wanting one all along.
The Profits and Prizes will be booked, the ones that the Finks of Blackrock & co ’contracted’ with Shelenska; consisting of the rump of the borderlands they had planned to from the beginning. With the natives ‘cleared permanently’. Their legal rights removed.
Followed by…
Exodus back to European heartlands by the ousted crusader settlers, demanded from the world, again.
We’ll see about that too - as the new Multipolar World will want to have their Law based International Order have the final say - not some fink Gangsters Rules.
Have a fine day barflies don’t start drinking too early 😉
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 6 2023 11:53 utc | 72
Can't understand why the UAF has launched their attacks on June 6.
I would have thought July 1 would have been more in keeping with history.
Posted by: The Accountant | Jun 6 2023 11:59 utc | 73
Piotr Berman # 11:15 utc | 59
Impact on Crimea is very mild for this year. Water to Crimea was blocked for years by Ukraine, and now the reservoirs in the peninsula are close to full. Irrigated agriculture will hurt, but it is a minor issue, I even do not know if it was restored after the beginning of this war. Irrigated agriculture in south Kherson, under Russian control, is not a major issue either while war is going on.
It was restored after Russian engineers removed the blockages installed by Ukraine. Plus Russia has constructed a backup pipeline to the north of the Azov sea from Russia to Mariupol etc and I assume that can be extended in a rush to deliver some supply to Crimea further south.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 6 2023 11:59 utc | 74
Beats me who actually gains from this, apart from some warped and twisted propaganda from the Ukrainians. Both sides have lost a potential crossing point for their military forces; both sides have to deal with downstream inundation.
As for the ZNPP, there’s a post in the comments over at Simplicius’ substack which describes the arrangements (sourced from Intelslava) of two ponds, effectively mini-reservoirs, that aren’t directly dependent on the water levels in the main reservoir and are more than sufficient to provide cooling duties for the plant just running one or two reactors at low power levels.
For the population of Crimea, they have lived for many years under Kiev-imposed water restrictions so low levels in the canal won’t be unfamiliar to them.
The whole business just seems useless in the grand scheme of things.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 6 2023 12:00 utc | 75
Waldorf | Jun 6 2023 11:30 utc | 64
Who wins from the busted dam game?
Well, Russia is at a disadvantage being on the lower, more submerged left bank.
But in theory Russia should [should] have had contingency plans in place, as the threat of the dam bust cutting their supply lines was their reason for leaving Kherson city on the right bank last year.
Ukraine “wins”, because Russia will be blamed and as others here have posted, could be a (faux) “casus belli” for USNATO to enter Ukraine for “humanitarian” reasons….
But the real losers, as always, are civilians… it’s just more misery for people downstream.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 6 2023 12:01 utc | 76
The following link should lead to an IntelSlava 2023-06-06 01:44 post showing UAF shelling of the dam today.
SOURCE:
https://t.me/s/intelslava#:~:text=The%20enemy%20does,01%3A44
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 11:26 utc | 61
Wtf! That clip DOES NOT SHOW "the dam being blown up". It shows a shitty photographic mashup of "before" and "after". Also, there is NO EVIDENTIARY commentary about any shelling at that link.
Live video mate. Show us live footage from 3am in the morning when the dam actually burst. Whoever wants to prove the cause has to show the means ... instead of just make claims.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 12:01 utc | 77
Russia benefits.
1. Destroyed Dam throws wrench in Ukraine's offensive.
2. Film of armada of small boats evacuating Ukraine soldiers off the Islands downstream of Damn.
3. Underwater part of damn was not destroyed. Water behind damn not flowing downstream.
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Jun 6 2023 12:05 utc | 78
Russia-Ukraine war live: dam near Kherson blown up by Russian forces, Ukrainian military says
https://web.archive.org/web/20230606042021/https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says">https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says">https://web.archive.org/web/20230606042021/https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says
The Guardian reporting includes the following:
8m ago
00.11 EDT
The UK ambassador to Ukraine, Dame Melinda Simmons, has retweeted a post calling what has happened at the dam “An appalling act of ecocide by the Russian regime."
Only 28 minutes after the false report of the dam having been "blown up" (IntelSlava images show water passing through a breech in the still standing dam structure) we have the first claim of "ECOCIDE."
By my calculation there are 865,440 seconds between now and the June 12 launch of the greatest NATO air armada in history. It only required 28 minutes for a charge of "ECOCIDE" to emerge. What happens in the next 865,440 seconds?
Is Mr Hack, the Chief MoA concern troll, paying attention?
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 12:06 utc | 79
The whole business just seems useless in the grand scheme of things.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 6 2023 12:00 utc | 75
Which is why my finger points to Brit SAS.
Just blow shit up to send a Fuck You to Putin.
Because.
Nothing else has worked. And seemingly (from unconfirmed reports) the Brit “special” forces have taken a few blows lately.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 6 2023 12:07 utc | 80
I still don't see how Russia takes Odessa and especially now. The logistics are worse, if anything. And I don't see Russia as prepared for a D-Day style attack, either.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 6 2023 12:10 utc | 81
One benefit of the top portion of the dam failing is that the resultant flooding will stall/stop any Ukrainian offensive for a while.
Sure the Ukrainians could quickly build portable bridges. However, these portable bridges will be in plain site in which the Russians could easily take out with their superior fire power.
NOTE: The Russians have been perfecting their combined fire power over the course of this war. Now they are far better at taking out the enemy.
For now the flooding removes the possibilities of Ukraine's offensive in the Kherson region below the dam. This allows Russia to better focus on the broader zero line which will now begin at the bridge going upstream.
Posted by: young | Jun 6 2023 12:10 utc | 82
The freaks who blew the dam still have a fleet of nuclear power plants at their disposal. Sociopaths and terrorists with nukes.
Freaks who minimize the evil (and post here) are same as freaks who smile as they kill.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 6 2023 10:55 utc | 53
The rational mind fails finally evaluating the human psyche. 'Civilization's discontents' doesn't have enough horror in its phrasing. We just don't go around talking about our deep wish for death. It wouldn't be cricket.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jun 6 2023 12:10 utc | 83
More Russian sloppiness. I mean in December of last year, the Ukrainians even TELEVISED their plans for the dam's destruction. As someone pointed out earlier, if they knew they couldn't prevent the HIMAR strikes on the dam, they should have begun slowly lowering the water level so that when the inevitable happened, the damage downstream wouldn't have been nearly as catastrophic.
Morons.
Posted by: bored | Jun 6 2023 12:12 utc | 84
More Russian sloppiness. I mean in December of last year, the Ukrainians even TELEVISED their plans for the dam's destruction. As someone pointed out earlier, if they knew they couldn't prevent the HIMAR strikes on the dam, they should have begun slowly lowering the water level so that when the inevitable happened, the damage downstream wouldn't have been nearly as catastrophic.
Morons.
Posted by: bored | Jun 6 2023 12:12 utc | 85
One of these days, the Ukrainians would throw the Jew out to save the country.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 6 2023 12:12 utc | 86
Letter from Russian UN Ambassador to Security Council in October 2022 re Ukraine's plans to destroy the dam:
Posted by: expat | Jun 6 2023 12:13 utc | 87
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 12:01 utc | 77
! That clip DOES NOT SHOW "the dam being blown up".
You are looking at a 07:40 IntelSlava post. You need to scroll up thread to a 01:44 IntelSlava post to observe what is believed to be UAF shelling of the damaged dam structure.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 6 2023 12:15 utc | 88
It’s irrelevant who blames who for this , the most important thing is 83% of the world knows the truth. Nobody appears to trust or have any time for the Puppet in Kiev anymore , the Duran just done a great piece on Modi and Lula lately.
Posted by: Scot1and | Jun 6 2023 12:16 utc | 89
@ uncle tungsten | Jun 6 2023 11:41 utc | 66
The only way for the west to save face is to escalate the threat to Russia etc etc.
Its as simple as that.
And all that while claiming that NATO is not ready to confront RF?
Although some valid points that you claim are important to consider. Sure, some face-saving is significant there, but as it seems, that is beyond repair.
I seriously doubt that NATO is willing to escalate to that level, let alone admit Ukraine in NATO on the fly.
That is lame and naive Ukrainian propaganda being propagated through Western outlets.
It also indicates UK-USA-NATO out of sync in how to continue.
It is a stupid Ukrainian assumption that RF's military will be occupied with saving the civilians, while Ukraine does some “offensive” elsewhere, or even perhaps in a very Kherson flooded area.
To me, if any attack from across Dnieper happens, it would look more as some NATO tactical planning unit's experimental tactics, more than anything else.
RF was expecting that to happen sooner or later, and is not scared or surprised in dealing with it.
In a day or two, nobody will remember dam any more, from a tactical point.
How damaged ecosystem will be there is a question that can be answered only in a long term.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 6 2023 12:16 utc | 90
I imagine that if the Russians were going to do this, they might have waited until the Ukes were more committed. Well, it is no longer a concern - except for those fleeing of course.
This war only needs a half-time and cheerleaders.
Where's Howard Cosell?
Posted by: jared | Jun 6 2023 12:19 utc | 91
One more point of investigation on this dam issue. At what point did Ukraine start evacuating their islands with speed boats and Zodiac inflatables? Judging by videos, it seems they were in a rush, being a surprise. So perhaps its possible that it simply failed now from earlier attacks.
Unless it was done only with a circle of few people knowing, which is possible considering that Z regime cares little about own troops or if they die for the "Greater Narrative".
It was a surprise on both sides.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 6 2023 12:22 utc | 93
@ Posted by: bored | Jun 6 2023 12:12 utc | 85
they should have begun slowly lowering the water level so that when the inevitable happened
It's a good point - they knew it might happen.
I wonder the rationale. It does seem like the Russians are a little too worried about public perception and inconveniencing the people. I think they were recommending evacuation from the area.
Posted by: jared | Jun 6 2023 12:25 utc | 94
A pro-Ukrainian twitter is having a good gloat about the new canal to Crimea being fucked over:
The Crimean canal is now flowing backwards from Crimea into the Dnipro River.
>…Location (46.7485886, 33.4064358)
I don’t expect the canal to ever transport water to a Russian-held Crimea again.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1666001260175056897
~ the Account has recent pics of flooding from various locations
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 6 2023 12:25 utc | 95
Gilbert Doctorow's commentary on the Nova Kakhova Dam breach:
The Ukrainian Army is run not by the Generals but by the PR Department
Opening paragraph:
What can you expect from a government headed by a comic actor named Zelensky? We see the answer to that question day by day in the way the Ukrainian armed forces are carrying out their much-anticipated spring counter-offensive: it is being stage managed by the Public Relations team with scant regard for their cannon fodder army.
Posted by: tawharanui | Jun 6 2023 12:30 utc | 96
Come on guys keep up....
So not many takers on my question....
How should Russia respond.
Sushi is awake, Hack not so much.
Of course Russia too will have game planned but from a position of sanity, unlike the west.
Vladimir Putin will note the start of this pathetic offensive and its fail, due to Russias prep.
He'll note the dam false flag.
The red warning light will come on.
And england will be in this war up to the neck if NATO as much as blink.
Putin should at this stage anouce to england....
"Go ahead punk make my day"
'Nice little tunnel ya got there shame if any thing happened to it.'
Am I a 'concerned' ? hell no.
Let's get ready to rubble !
F..k the west /NATO.
Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 6 2023 12:34 utc | 97
Militarily it is hard to say who this causes the most problems for, but politically the Ukraine is emerging as the winner again in the media narrative and the Twitter war. It is possible that Russia blew up its own dam but you might have thought that they would have waited until a UAF river crossing was in progress. Looks to me like the western press are following the "blew up their own pipeline" and "shelled their own nuclear power station" type narratives - cos the Russians are stupid that way, along with being evil and insane.
Nevertheless this is looking like a FF exercise by NATO to me, but like everyone else I have no evidence. This is not stopping the western press from jumping to the "correct" conclusion and very fast - which for me is a big tell as to who is really behind all this.The motive might be another thing again, but nothing good methinks. The up coming Air Defender exercise is a worry as direct NATO intervention means WW3 so I very much hope wise heads prevail - though not much evidence of that recently.
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 6 2023 12:34 utc | 98
Posted by: b | Jun 6 2023 12:20 utc | 92
I have updated the above piece. Please reload and reread it.
Tank you. b.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 6 2023 12:36 utc | 99
German MSM and chancellor freaking out in the usual manner ("evil RU has that hobby of killing civilians")
I was thinking this may now be the very welcome incident to bring the "exercizing" NATO troops into the equation.
Posted by: Tapio | Jun 6 2023 12:41 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Lol, "the flood water has destroyed Russian minefields..."
Oh no it hasn't.
1. Mines are waterproof.
2. Mines do not float.
3. Mines are heavy and will not travel far or fast in flowing water.
4. But what WILL HAPPEN, I guarantee, is that they will be slightly dislodged OFF THE LAYING MAP, plus buried in varying depths of mud, and hence become a guessing game of their new whereabouts. Therefore, it is any Ukrainian attackers who will get the explosive surprises. And Russia will have the shit job of unmapped demining for years afterwards.
Posted by: The Dolphin | Jun 6 2023 8:43 utc | 1