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No – Such Propaganda Delusions Will Not Win The War
I do not know what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius or the Biden administration officials he is talking to are smoking, but it must be extraordinary strong stuff:
Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front. That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.
The 'thrust' was against a small Russian held salient in the front line near Velyka Novosilka at the center of this map.
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Zooming in we see the current frontline as depicted by the Ukraine friendly LiveUAmap.
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Using the 'Time' feature of that map we can see the front line in the same area one week ago.
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Using the scale at the bottom right of the map we can tell that the sole total 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces on the upper left was about two kilometers deep on a four kilometer wide front. They conquered two tree lines between open fields. Not one settlement of farm was 'liberated' by those forces.
Here is the same place depicted on the map of the pro-Ukrainian neoconservative Institute for the Study of War.
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It shows the same story. Again the 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces was limited to some treelines between flat open fields.
It came at enormous cost:
During the three days of combat operations in all directions Ukraine lost up to 3,715 men, 52 tanks and 207 armored combat vehicles, 134 trucks, 48 field artillery guns, as well as five aircraft, two helicopters and 53 drones.
Russia’s losses were immeasurably smaller: "Altogether 71 servicemen of the combined group of forces were killed and 210 others wounded while repulsing the enemy offensive. Fifteen tanks, nine infantry fighting vehicles, two trucks and nine guns were taken out."
That's Russian propaganda you say? Yes, you may want to cut those numbers in half to get to the real ones. They are still enormous.
Gilbert Doctorow notes that The Ukrainian Army is run not by the Generals but by the PR Department. Accordingly the demolition of Kakhovka dam is a diversion from the disastrous losses of the last few days.
The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the dam damage was done to allow for the transfer of Ukrainian forces (machine translation):
"Tonight, the Kiev regime committed another terrorist crime: the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was blown up, which led to the flooding of large areas," he said.
The minister added that the purpose of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by Kiev is to transfer units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from the Kherson direction to the offensive area.
He pointed out that the Kiev regime had blown up the structures of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. "The purpose of these actions, according to available data, is as follows. Having not achieved success in offensive operations, in order to strengthen its potential, the enemy intends to transfer units and equipment from the Kherson direction to the area of its offensive operations, thus significantly weakening its positions in the Kherson direction," Shoigu said.
I have a different reading of the situation. With the dam intact any large crossing of the lower Dnieper would be endangered by the ability of the other side to release water from the dam. With the dam blown up flooding will, for a week or two, turn the area along the river into a swamp. But after two weeks or so the water will be gone and a large crossing, without the danger of being flooded, will become possible. This reading is based on several reports of ferrying and bridging units being transferred to Ukraine:
Russia has depended upon unbridged waterways and other geographical features for a measure of security. As Ukrainian armored bridging units begin to emerge in battle, Russia will be challenged by the sudden emergence of fast-moving Ukrainian units in lightly-defended areas.
Bridging units are really some of the last few pieces Ukraine requires to take the offensive. The fact that they are getting donated now can only be interpreted as a sign that American experts feel confident that Ukraine is finally ready to employ their new, highly-mobile equipment effectively, at scale, and in large offensive operations.
Then again – Shoigu will surely have better access to battlefield information than I do.
Back to Ignatius class delusions:
It might take weeks before the results of the Ukrainian campaign are clear, but Kyiv has already succeeded in expanding the stalemated fighting in Bakhmut, the bitterly contested eastern city that was ground zero throughout the winter.
Ahem – Ukraine was utterly defeated in Bakhmut and no longer holds any ground within that city.
If it wants to expand on that the Russians will surely welcome it to do so.
The Armed forces of Ukraine, having failed to achieve the objectives of the offensive and having suffered significant losses in the South Donetsk direction, attempted to break through the defenses of our troops in the Donetsk direction near the city of Artemovsk.
During the past day, the active actions of the “Southern” group of troops successfully repelled eight attempts by assault detachments of the 56th Motorized Infantry, 57th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of settlements: Yagodnoye, Dubovo-Vasilevka, the western outskirts of Artemovsk, Andreevka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, as well as the 24th mechanized and 3-th assault brigade in the area of the settlement of Kleshcheyevka.
The enemy did not achieve the offensive goal. Interference in our defense is not allowed.
◽️ During the fighting, up to 415 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, six cars, a self-propelled artillery installation “Gvozdika”, as well as a howitzer “Msta-B” were destroyed during the day.
💥 On the Vremyevsky ledge by decisive actions of units of the Vostok group of troops, air strikes, missile troops and artillery, during the day three enemy attacks were repelled by the forces of two battalion tactical groups in the areas of the settlements of Neskuchnoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Levadnoye of the Zaporozhye region.
In addition, an attack by an assault unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Novodonetskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic was repelled. This locality is under the control of the Russian armed forces.
As a result of the fire damage of a column of Ukrainian armored vehicles advancing in the direction of the October state farm, most of the armored vehicles were destroyed. The remaining ones retreated to the starting line on the move.
In total, over 190 Ukrainian servicemen, 8 tanks, including two AMX-10 wheeled tanks made in France, 20 armored combat vehicles, 12 vehicles, the M777 artillery system made in the USA, the Gvozdika self-propelled artillery installation, D-20 and D-30 howitzers were destroyed in the South Donetsk direction during the day, as well as the Hyacinth-B cannon.
◽️ In the area of the settlements of Omelnik and Gulyai-Pole of the Zaporozhye region, the ammunition depot of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were destroyed.
💥 In the Kupyansk direction, air strikes and artillery fire of the “Western” grouping of troops hit enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Kulagovka, Kislovka, Pershotravnevoye of the Kharkiv region and Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
◽️ In the area of the settlement of Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People’s Republic, the activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed.
During the day, more than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, two cars, as well as a Paladin self-propelled artillery unit manufactured by the United States were destroyed in this direction.
💥 In the Krasno-Limansky direction, tactical and army aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the Center group of troops defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Ploshchanka, Karmazinovka, Chervonaya Dibrova, Kuzmino of the Luhansk People’s Republic and Yampolovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The activities of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been suppressed in the area of the Serebryansky forestry.
More than 70 Ukrainian servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, five cars, a self-propelled artillery installation “Gvozdika”, as well as a D-20 howitzer were destroyed during the day.
In the Kherson direction, as a result of fire damage over the past day, up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, five armored combat vehicles, two pickups, an M777 artillery system manufactured by the United States, a self-propelled artillery installation “Gvozdika”, as well as a howitzer “Msta-B” were destroyed.
During the day, 93 artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 137 districts were hit by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Command and observation posts of the 67th Mechanized and 44th Artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People’s Republic and Novoivanovka of the Zaporozhye region.
Two fuel depots of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed near the settlement of Avdiivka, Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 By means of air defense in the area of the settlement of Nikiforovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, a Su-27 fighter of the Air Forces of Ukraine was shot down.
A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet was shot down near the settlement of Lyubitskoye, Zaporozhye region.
During the day, 24 rockets of the HIMARS, Uragan and Alder multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted.
In addition, 22 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Donetsk, Verkhnetoretskoye, Gornyak of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Verkhnekamenka, Kremennaya, Makeyevka of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Ilchenkovo, Engineering of the Zaporozhye region, Sadovoye and Bare Pier of the Kherson region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 438 aircraft, 238 helicopters, 4527 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9634 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1119 multiple rocket launchers, 5034 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 10771 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
On June 5, at about 21.00 Moscow time, in the area of the settlement of Masyutovka, Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group detonated the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.
As a result of this terrorist act, there are victims among the civilian population. They received the necessary medical care.
◽️ Currently, ammonia residues are being drained from the Ukrainian territory through the damaged sections of the pipeline.
There are no casualties among Russian servicemen.
Posted by: Felin | Jun 7 2023 11:35 utc | 6
Dimitry Orlov weighs in…..
Vladimir Zelensky, Russian Hero
2023-06-07
During his tenure as president of (what remains of) the Ukraine, Zelensky has wrecked the Ukraine, but has achieved many great things… for Russia. Here are his main achievements in no particular order:
• By being elected with the promise of ending hostilities, then immediately proceeding to escalate the conflict in the east, he thoroughly compromised what was left of Ukrainian democracy. He further demolished the Ukraine’s civic realm by banning all public media except for one government channel, banning all opposition and all Russian news sources and, in effect, establishing a totalitarian dictatorship.
• By relentlessly shelling the civilians in the now Russian Donetsk and Lugansk regions, then, in the spring of 2022, threatening them with a genocidal assault, he provided Russia with an ironclad reason to start the Special Military Operation: to save civilian lives. By so doing, he helped to expand Russian territory by four very valuable provinces (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson) and set the stage for the eventual addition of, among others, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov, and Kiev regions.
• He squandered $150 billion in foreign aid (much of it by the simple expedient of stealing it), expended a huge amount of military equipment and ammunition with nothing to show for it, and killed off 350 thousand Ukrainian soldiers (many of them Nazi war criminals), with possibly twice as many wounded.
• He shrunk his country’s population by almost half, some of it moving to Russia, becoming Russian citizens and integrating productively into the Russian population while rest went to the European Union, becoming a major burden for the welfare budgets of EU countries.
• By ordering Ukrainian troops to shell schools, kindergartens, hospitals and apartment buildings in universally recognized Russian regions such as Belgorod and by launching drone attacks directly on the Kremlin, he declared his government to be a terrorist organization, foreclosing any possibility of forcing Russia to negotiate a peace that would not be entirely on its own terms.
• He demonstrated the superiority of Russian weapons and military technique over NATO’s, most recently with Russia’s destruction of one of the Patriot missile batteries provided by the US. Almost every bit of equipment the West has been able to provide to the Ukrainians has been shown to be inferior to its Russian counterpart.
• He gave the Russian army ample opportunities to perfect their techniques for defeating NATO forces, venturing into new areas of drone warfare and battlefield surveillance from geostationary satellites. This will no doubt be very useful both in opposing NATO and in boosting future weapons sales to non-Western nations that wish to be free from Western oppression and meddling.
• He sold some of the weapons he received from the US to Mexican drug cartels, leaving US officials with no other choice than closing their eyes and pretending that this did not happen. Perhaps they will also be forced to look the other way as these cartels make use of these weapons to take over more and more of US cities and towns.
• He played host to many high-ranking Western officials, whom, on their to visit to Kiev, he presented with lavish presents such as suitcases of foreign aid money he had laundered, which these officials then brought home in diplomatic baggage, thus collecting blackmail material on all of them.
• He set an example for other Russian Jews whose bad luck had caused them to end up in the Ukraine rather than in Russia by resettling his parents in a posh neighborhood in Israel. But he kept his wife by his side, where she did a good job demoralizing the Ukrainian population by squandering more money on a single European shopping spree than most Ukrainians see in several lifetimes, all paid for by the US taxpayer. She also worked hard to gaslight Western officials by making them accept at face value and repeat ridiculous tales, such as the one about Russian troops being issued viagra, for them to better rape Ukrainian women.
• Zelensky is sometimes incautious; for instance, he got caught appointing operatives from Russia’s Federal Security Service (former KGB) to sensitive posts within the Ukrainian defense establishment, although it is unclear whether what’s left of the Ukrainian judiciary will be capable of prosecuting him.
• One of his greatest achievements was in placing the US and NATO in a zugzwang. This is a chess term for a situation in which a player has a choice of several moves, all of which lead to defeat. The US and NATO can either continue supporting the Ukraine, or they can stop supporting the Ukraine; in either case, they will lose.
• Perhaps his greatest achievement of all was in helping Russia turn away from its hostile neighbors in the West and toward friendly countries in Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America, cutting its economic, financial and cultural ties to the West and freeing itself from Western influences. His unwavering support for Ukrainian Nazis, whose emblems, insignia and slogans are styled after Nazi Germany and whose heroes are Nazi collaborators, coupled with the lavish support they received from the West, whose leaders chose to turn a blind eye toward their fascist proclivities, cemented in view of the Russians the view of the West as their existential enemy: a fascist, racist entity determined to destroy Russia but too weak and cowardly to do the job themselves.
All of this begs a question: Whom does Vladimir Zelensky serve?
An interesting Russian take on current events…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 7 2023 12:10 utc | 20
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