No - Such Propaganda Delusions Will Not Win The War
I do not know what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius or the Biden administration officials he is talking to are smoking, but it must be extraordinary strong stuff:
Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front. That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast — severing the land bridge.
The 'thrust' was against a small Russian held salient in the front line near Velyka Novosilka at the center of this map.
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Zooming in we see the current frontline as depicted by the Ukraine friendly LiveUAmap.
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Using the 'Time' feature of that map we can see the front line in the same area one week ago.
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Using the scale at the bottom right of the map we can tell that the sole total 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces on the upper left was about two kilometers deep on a four kilometer wide front. They conquered two tree lines between open fields. Not one settlement of farm was 'liberated' by those forces.
Here is the same place depicted on the map of the pro-Ukrainian neoconservative Institute for the Study of War.
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It shows the same story. Again the 'progress' of the Ukrainian forces was limited to some treelines between flat open fields.
It came at enormous cost:
During the three days of combat operations in all directions Ukraine lost up to 3,715 men, 52 tanks and 207 armored combat vehicles, 134 trucks, 48 field artillery guns, as well as five aircraft, two helicopters and 53 drones.Russia’s losses were immeasurably smaller: "Altogether 71 servicemen of the combined group of forces were killed and 210 others wounded while repulsing the enemy offensive. Fifteen tanks, nine infantry fighting vehicles, two trucks and nine guns were taken out."
That's Russian propaganda you say? Yes, you may want to cut those numbers in half to get to the real ones. They are still enormous.
Gilbert Doctorow notes that The Ukrainian Army is run not by the Generals but by the PR Department. Accordingly the demolition of Kakhovka dam is a diversion from the disastrous losses of the last few days.
The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the dam damage was done to allow for the transfer of Ukrainian forces (machine translation):
"Tonight, the Kiev regime committed another terrorist crime: the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was blown up, which led to the flooding of large areas," he said.The minister added that the purpose of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by Kiev is to transfer units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from the Kherson direction to the offensive area.
He pointed out that the Kiev regime had blown up the structures of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. "The purpose of these actions, according to available data, is as follows. Having not achieved success in offensive operations, in order to strengthen its potential, the enemy intends to transfer units and equipment from the Kherson direction to the area of its offensive operations, thus significantly weakening its positions in the Kherson direction," Shoigu said.
I have a different reading of the situation. With the dam intact any large crossing of the lower Dnieper would be endangered by the ability of the other side to release water from the dam. With the dam blown up flooding will, for a week or two, turn the area along the river into a swamp. But after two weeks or so the water will be gone and a large crossing, without the danger of being flooded, will become possible. This reading is based on several reports of ferrying and bridging units being transferred to Ukraine:
Russia has depended upon unbridged waterways and other geographical features for a measure of security. As Ukrainian armored bridging units begin to emerge in battle, Russia will be challenged by the sudden emergence of fast-moving Ukrainian units in lightly-defended areas.Bridging units are really some of the last few pieces Ukraine requires to take the offensive. The fact that they are getting donated now can only be interpreted as a sign that American experts feel confident that Ukraine is finally ready to employ their new, highly-mobile equipment effectively, at scale, and in large offensive operations.
Then again - Shoigu will surely have better access to battlefield information than I do.
Back to Ignatius class delusions:
It might take weeks before the results of the Ukrainian campaign are clear, but Kyiv has already succeeded in expanding the stalemated fighting in Bakhmut, the bitterly contested eastern city that was ground zero throughout the winter.
Ahem - Ukraine was utterly defeated in Bakhmut and no longer holds any ground within that city.
If it wants to expand on that the Russians will surely welcome it to do so.
Posted by b on June 7, 2023 at 11:14 UTC | Permalink
next page »I am quite relaxed about matters. Ukraine is dead meat and Washington is administering electric shocks to Galvani‘s frogs legs
The twitching is magnified by those wonderful lenses filtered through a distorting prism into rainbow spectrum for TV news slots in G7 Drug Dens
Russia needs merely to wait and watch the clustering of men and munitions to eradicate and prepare for NATO endgame
It is simply whether the response eliminates Israel or U.K. or Germany before US calls it game over
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 7 2023 11:23 utc | 2
Ukraine cannot win this war. It does not matter how many times NATO shills say otherwise.
Posted by: Roy Walker | Jun 7 2023 11:23 utc | 3
It might take weeks before the results of the Ukrainian campaign are clear, but Kyiv has already succeeded in expanding the stalemated fighting in Bakhmut, the bitterly contested eastern city that was ground zero throughout the winter.
Ground zero '.... the winter'? Surely, Holy Ground Zero can only refer to a single event in ancient New York
Posted by: Merkin Scot | Jun 7 2023 11:29 utc | 4
Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress...
So caputuring two (2) tree lines and advancing some 2 km was better than expected. Does this suggests that administration official are getting a realistic picture of this war and the prospects of Ukraine's military? Don't understand to what they were encouraged though. I guess there is a missudnerstanding somewhere
Posted by: Max | Jun 7 2023 11:30 utc | 5
The Armed forces of Ukraine, having failed to achieve the objectives of the offensive and having suffered significant losses in the South Donetsk direction, attempted to break through the defenses of our troops in the Donetsk direction near the city of Artemovsk.
During the past day, the active actions of the "Southern" group of troops successfully repelled eight attempts by assault detachments of the 56th Motorized Infantry, 57th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of settlements: Yagodnoye, Dubovo-Vasilevka, the western outskirts of Artemovsk, Andreevka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, as well as the 24th mechanized and 3-th assault brigade in the area of the settlement of Kleshcheyevka.
The enemy did not achieve the offensive goal. Interference in our defense is not allowed.
◽️ During the fighting, up to 415 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, six cars, a self-propelled artillery installation "Gvozdika", as well as a howitzer "Msta-B" were destroyed during the day.
💥 On the Vremyevsky ledge by decisive actions of units of the Vostok group of troops, air strikes, missile troops and artillery, during the day three enemy attacks were repelled by the forces of two battalion tactical groups in the areas of the settlements of Neskuchnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Levadnoye of the Zaporozhye region.
In addition, an attack by an assault unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Novodonetskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic was repelled. This locality is under the control of the Russian armed forces.
As a result of the fire damage of a column of Ukrainian armored vehicles advancing in the direction of the October state farm, most of the armored vehicles were destroyed. The remaining ones retreated to the starting line on the move.
In total, over 190 Ukrainian servicemen, 8 tanks, including two AMX-10 wheeled tanks made in France, 20 armored combat vehicles, 12 vehicles, the M777 artillery system made in the USA, the Gvozdika self-propelled artillery installation, D-20 and D-30 howitzers were destroyed in the South Donetsk direction during the day, as well as the Hyacinth-B cannon.
◽️ In the area of the settlements of Omelnik and Gulyai-Pole of the Zaporozhye region, the ammunition depot of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were destroyed.
💥 In the Kupyansk direction, air strikes and artillery fire of the "Western" grouping of troops hit enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Kulagovka, Kislovka, Pershotravnevoye of the Kharkiv region and Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People's Republic.
◽️ In the area of the settlement of Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic, the activities of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed.
During the day, more than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, two cars, as well as a Paladin self-propelled artillery unit manufactured by the United States were destroyed in this direction.
💥 In the Krasno-Limansky direction, tactical and army aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the Center group of troops defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Ploshchanka, Karmazinovka, Chervonaya Dibrova, Kuzmino of the Luhansk People's Republic and Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The activities of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been suppressed in the area of the Serebryansky forestry.
More than 70 Ukrainian servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, five cars, a self-propelled artillery installation "Gvozdika", as well as a D-20 howitzer were destroyed during the day.
In the Kherson direction, as a result of fire damage over the past day, up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, five armored combat vehicles, two pickups, an M777 artillery system manufactured by the United States, a self-propelled artillery installation "Gvozdika", as well as a howitzer "Msta-B" were destroyed.
During the day, 93 artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 137 districts were hit by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Command and observation posts of the 67th Mechanized and 44th Artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic and Novoivanovka of the Zaporozhye region.
Two fuel depots of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed near the settlement of Avdiivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 By means of air defense in the area of the settlement of Nikiforovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, a Su-27 fighter of the Air Forces of Ukraine was shot down.
A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet was shot down near the settlement of Lyubitskoye, Zaporozhye region.
During the day, 24 rockets of the HIMARS, Uragan and Alder multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted.
In addition, 22 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Donetsk, Verkhnetoretskoye, Gornyak of the Donetsk People's Republic, Verkhnekamenka, Kremennaya, Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Ilchenkovo, Engineering of the Zaporozhye region, Sadovoye and Bare Pier of the Kherson region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 438 aircraft, 238 helicopters, 4527 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9634 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1119 multiple rocket launchers, 5034 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 10771 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
On June 5, at about 21.00 Moscow time, in the area of the settlement of Masyutovka, Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group detonated the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.
As a result of this terrorist act, there are victims among the civilian population. They received the necessary medical care.
◽️ Currently, ammonia residues are being drained from the Ukrainian territory through the damaged sections of the pipeline.
There are no casualties among Russian servicemen.
Posted by: Felin | Jun 7 2023 11:35 utc | 6
This Russian SMO will conclude with the capitulation of the Ukraine (and NATO). When it ends, Kiev and the land 200kms from Kiev will be annexed to Russian Federation. The USSR didn't fight to win the WW2 to hand over the the areas freed from the Hiller's Nazis to today's NATO Nazis, after nearly 78 years!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 11:36 utc | 7
Our source in the OP said that at the headquarters they discussed the formats of the counteroffensive after the explosion Kakhovskaya HPP, which changes the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.While everyone is discussing the situation below the dam and the flooding of the Kherson region, the real problem arises around the operation to storm the ZNPP. The Kakovskoye reservoir is rapidly shrinking, which means that it will be extremely difficult to carry out a landing operation.
There will be shallow water for several kilometers, which will not allow the use of boats, and our paratroopers will have to move on wet sand, turning into convenient targets for the enemy.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18157
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:45 utc | 8
Ahhhh, the usual pointless debates about who is going to "win" this SMO. My guess as always is that the USA strategists badly want Ukraine to lose, as slowly as possible, as bloodily as possible, so eventually phase 3 (phase 1 was the ukrainian fascist attack against the Donbas, phase 2 the counter-attack by the Donbas and the RF), the "stay behind" insurgency can fully begin, and in 10-20 years the upper-middle and upper classes of Moscow and St. Petersburg will will become tired of that push for regime change.
All the loud USA propaganda is to keep the their own and NATO's taxpayers happy with funding a long losing phase 2, by deluding them that there will be a quick and inexpensive victory ("jam tomorrow"!).
So the football-match style discussions of every movement on a very long and sparse front is a waste of time.
Posted by: Blissex | Jun 7 2023 11:46 utc | 9
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff simulated the situation with the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station during the counteroffensive, after the capture of the bridgehead and the landing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank.According to the calculations of the General Staff, the water should go away in 10-15 days, and then you need to immediately start the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until the enemy has time to create a new line of defense, which was washed away by water.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18160
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:47 utc | 10
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President has classified the video of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, which shows the first minutes of the platinum breakthrough. Bankova refused a UN request to provide visual control personnel.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18161
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:49 utc | 11
In Ukraine, there is a big problem with the spread of illegal weapons.It is noteworthy that the problem is partly recognized even in the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. As Interior Minister Igor Klymenko reported in an interview with BBC News, Ukrainians now have about 1.2 million firearms in their hands, and the main problem is that the "trunks" can fall into the hands of unscrupulous citizens.
"This weapon can fall into the hands of sabotage groups or, most importantly, into the hands of criminals," Klymenko stressed. Moreover, when asked about data on unregistered weapons, the minister replied: “There are no such estimates in the country (attention!) But there are from our European partners that after the war there will probably be up to (!) 3 million weapons in the state.”
And this is frightening, because the impoverishment of citizens in a warring country is guaranteed to give rise to an increase in crime. However, the top Ukrainian authorities do not listen to the fears of law enforcement officers and prefer to use the police in a completely different way - for example, as escorts for raids to catch military men.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18164
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:50 utc | 12
As we have previously insided and continue to warn the Ukrainian people that in the coming years there will be a hybrid famine in the country. Remember later how Zelensky massively exported grain from Ukraine.The case with the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station will lead to the fact that the fields in the south of Ukraine may turn into deserts next year.
Irrigation systems in the Kherson region by almost 90%, 74% - in the Zaporozhye region and 30% - in the Dnepropetrovsk region will not function.
The destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP will also have negative consequences for the fish industry: the death of fish is already being recorded.
This will affect the entire country. The war will lead to the fact that Ukraine completely turns into a "grey zone". Remember the recent shortage of onions. Although once Ukraine was the "breadbasket of Europe."
The partners assigned Ukraine the role of a "kamikaze" country.Think about where the temporary politicians are leading you.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15543
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:52 utc | 13
"the "stay behind" insurgency can fully begin, and in 10-20 years the upper-middle and upper classes of Moscow and St. Petersburg will will become tired of that push for regime change."
U think the West can bankroll the black hole called Ukraine for 10-20 more years!??
I dont give it 10-20 more months.
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 7 2023 11:52 utc | 14
Klitschko strikes back at Zelensky. Somehow everyone missed this news because of the tragedy with the dam.The mayor of Kyiv began to warm up the Western lobby on the topic that Zelensky is busy with a political “cleansing” inside the country, and not with the very offensive and the interests of the people.
The Ze-office is conducting a media hunt for its competitors and is trying to build a monopoly in Ukraine.
With this step, Klitschko demonstrates to everyone that he holds a blow and for Zelensky and Yermak such a “fish” as Klitschko is too tough. Klitschko will continue to make himself a new center of gravity for the Ukrainian elite, which is very bad for the OP.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15544
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:53 utc | 15
The elections are supposed to be in March 2024, right? The best natoids can do will be left for 2024 for maximum damage.
@ostro | Jun 7 2023 11:36 utc | 7
I think they would better leave Ukr as a two village country. The clowns will have to pay everything they have to nato and Russia for 100 years. Let them enjoy freedom.
Posted by: rk | Jun 7 2023 11:53 utc | 16
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🌊 #Kakhovskaya HPP Collapse - Situation until 13:00 on 7 Jun 2023⚡️▪️ In Nova Kakhovka the water level is gradually beginning to recede. The town has started to receive some power, water samples have been taken and decontamination of the area will begin in the next few days.
➖ However, 7 people are still missing in the village and up to 100 residents are trapped and need to be evacuated.▪️ The situation remains grave in neighbouring villages. #Dnepryany, #Krynki and Каzachi Lageri are flooded to the roofs of the houses, while #Korsunki is completely under water. In #Alyoshki, residents who refused to evacuate are forced to move to higher ground, and Golaya Pristan is flooded by almost 80%.
▪️ Due to erosion of cemeteries in Nova Kakhovka, #Dnepryany, Golaya Pristan, #Alyoshki and #Korsunki there is a risk of water contamination. At the moment, chemical indicators are within normal limits.
▪️ Amid the aggravation of the situation due to the destruction of the #Kakhovskaya HPP, a state of emergency has been introduced in the #Kherson region.
▪️ Ukrainian authorities said that despite the decrease in the intensity of flooding, water continues to arrive. At the same time, the country's Ministry of Agricultural Policy warned about the possibility of fields turning into a desert as early as next year.
▪️ According to the latest data, about 1,500 people have been evacuated from the #Dnieper River right bank, at least 2,000 houses remain under water. The Russian side has reported the evacuation of nearly 1,300 residents.
▪️ The situation in #Dnepropetrovsk region continues to deteriorate. A severe drinking and technical water saving regime has been introduced in #Nikopol, a similar situation is observed in #Dnepropetrovsk and Krivoy Rog.
📌 Eyewitnesses report the release of water in #Kremenchuk and #Kiev. Continuation of such actions could lead to #Kherson region turning into a swamp.
📜 RYBAR; 7 Jun 2023, 13:18
https://t.me/sitreports/9864
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:55 utc | 17
Thanks b.
Yes, another stoned opinion from WaPo, based on autistic pursuing of one-sided truth, that turned into dangerous delusion.
How is bridging equipment highly mobile? That stays a mystery to me.
To deploy and erect a crossing takes around 2-4 hours per best estimate military standard. And that under shelling and constant observation is highly mobile? Right.
As you wrote before, RF's times from D2D (detection to destruction) have decreased to nearly a few minutes and in some cases under a minute. Good luck with crossing even the narrowest river to where it matters.
Also, thinking that Ukraine army is now relieved with the flooding and can transfer its troops elsewhere is a deadly mistake they are making.
Shoigu's field report is covering the whole frontline, and it might be a plausible estimate. As you say, even if half of it is true, it is terrible for Ukraine.
What the West needs are images of destroyed stuff, including their precious tanks and MRAPS.
Maybe then they will stop smoking weird lo quality stuff.
The most terrible thing for the West is going to be awakening and facing the reality.
Tucker Carlson, for whatever he is, had sent a lot clearer picture of the state of the things than any of the MSM journo's ever so far.
I understand that most of the things around the dam he claimed are a bit overdone, but put well in perspective so an average cable-viewer can understand.
Most importantly, he delivered his opinion to around 55 mil. viewers – WaPo or any of those USA MIC government amplifiers have not such reach.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 7 2023 12:06 utc | 18
platinum breakthrough
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18161
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:49 utc | 13
Evidently machine translated, so "плотина" as in "dam" turned into "платина" as in "platinum". So should read as "dam breakthrough"
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 7 2023 12:09 utc | 19
Dimitry Orlov weighs in.....
Vladimir Zelensky, Russian Hero
2023-06-07
During his tenure as president of (what remains of) the Ukraine, Zelensky has wrecked the Ukraine, but has achieved many great things… for Russia. Here are his main achievements in no particular order:
• By being elected with the promise of ending hostilities, then immediately proceeding to escalate the conflict in the east, he thoroughly compromised what was left of Ukrainian democracy. He further demolished the Ukraine’s civic realm by banning all public media except for one government channel, banning all opposition and all Russian news sources and, in effect, establishing a totalitarian dictatorship.
• By relentlessly shelling the civilians in the now Russian Donetsk and Lugansk regions, then, in the spring of 2022, threatening them with a genocidal assault, he provided Russia with an ironclad reason to start the Special Military Operation: to save civilian lives. By so doing, he helped to expand Russian territory by four very valuable provinces (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson) and set the stage for the eventual addition of, among others, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov, and Kiev regions.
• He squandered $150 billion in foreign aid (much of it by the simple expedient of stealing it), expended a huge amount of military equipment and ammunition with nothing to show for it, and killed off 350 thousand Ukrainian soldiers (many of them Nazi war criminals), with possibly twice as many wounded.
• He shrunk his country’s population by almost half, some of it moving to Russia, becoming Russian citizens and integrating productively into the Russian population while rest went to the European Union, becoming a major burden for the welfare budgets of EU countries.
• By ordering Ukrainian troops to shell schools, kindergartens, hospitals and apartment buildings in universally recognized Russian regions such as Belgorod and by launching drone attacks directly on the Kremlin, he declared his government to be a terrorist organization, foreclosing any possibility of forcing Russia to negotiate a peace that would not be entirely on its own terms.
• He demonstrated the superiority of Russian weapons and military technique over NATO’s, most recently with Russia’s destruction of one of the Patriot missile batteries provided by the US. Almost every bit of equipment the West has been able to provide to the Ukrainians has been shown to be inferior to its Russian counterpart.
• He gave the Russian army ample opportunities to perfect their techniques for defeating NATO forces, venturing into new areas of drone warfare and battlefield surveillance from geostationary satellites. This will no doubt be very useful both in opposing NATO and in boosting future weapons sales to non-Western nations that wish to be free from Western oppression and meddling.
• He sold some of the weapons he received from the US to Mexican drug cartels, leaving US officials with no other choice than closing their eyes and pretending that this did not happen. Perhaps they will also be forced to look the other way as these cartels make use of these weapons to take over more and more of US cities and towns.
• He played host to many high-ranking Western officials, whom, on their to visit to Kiev, he presented with lavish presents such as suitcases of foreign aid money he had laundered, which these officials then brought home in diplomatic baggage, thus collecting blackmail material on all of them.
• He set an example for other Russian Jews whose bad luck had caused them to end up in the Ukraine rather than in Russia by resettling his parents in a posh neighborhood in Israel. But he kept his wife by his side, where she did a good job demoralizing the Ukrainian population by squandering more money on a single European shopping spree than most Ukrainians see in several lifetimes, all paid for by the US taxpayer. She also worked hard to gaslight Western officials by making them accept at face value and repeat ridiculous tales, such as the one about Russian troops being issued viagra, for them to better rape Ukrainian women.
• Zelensky is sometimes incautious; for instance, he got caught appointing operatives from Russia’s Federal Security Service (former KGB) to sensitive posts within the Ukrainian defense establishment, although it is unclear whether what’s left of the Ukrainian judiciary will be capable of prosecuting him.
• One of his greatest achievements was in placing the US and NATO in a zugzwang. This is a chess term for a situation in which a player has a choice of several moves, all of which lead to defeat. The US and NATO can either continue supporting the Ukraine, or they can stop supporting the Ukraine; in either case, they will lose.
• Perhaps his greatest achievement of all was in helping Russia turn away from its hostile neighbors in the West and toward friendly countries in Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America, cutting its economic, financial and cultural ties to the West and freeing itself from Western influences. His unwavering support for Ukrainian Nazis, whose emblems, insignia and slogans are styled after Nazi Germany and whose heroes are Nazi collaborators, coupled with the lavish support they received from the West, whose leaders chose to turn a blind eye toward their fascist proclivities, cemented in view of the Russians the view of the West as their existential enemy: a fascist, racist entity determined to destroy Russia but too weak and cowardly to do the job themselves.
All of this begs a question: Whom does Vladimir Zelensky serve?
An interesting Russian take on current events...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 7 2023 12:10 utc | 20
Seems to me, these words: "Ukraine is finally ready to employ their new, highly-mobile equipment effectively, at scale, and in large offensive operations." indicate a Ukrainian offensive has yet to happen.. Blowing the bridge was the only objective of the resent so called "Ukrainian Offensive" and the Ukrainians achieved that objective?
The planned offensive will likely not start until late July or August.
Posted by: snake | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 21
@11 Blissex "My guess as always is that the USA strategists badly want Ukraine to lose, as slowly as possible, as bloodily as possible, so eventually phase 3 (phase 1 was the ukrainian fascist attack against the Donbas, phase 2 the counter-attack by the Donbas and the RF), the "stay behind" insurgency can fully begin,"
That's western delusional thinking based upon their own experience of war in the 21st century.
Because the "western" way of war is the swift decapitation of the existing government, its overthrow and replacement with a pliant stooge, and then a decades-long occupation fighting - in vain - to pacify an insurgency.
But what you - and the West - don't appear to have noticed is that Russia is very deliberately not fighting this war in the "western" way.
Rather than prioritizing the capture of territory and the capitulation of the government the Russians are very deliberately grinding the Ukrainian army into dust. Their aim is the same as Napoleon Bonaparte, who always strove for the destruction of armies above the capture of territory.
Think about it: the "western" way of war in the 21st century actually invites an insurgency, insomuch as the swift "shock and awe" victory sweeps away the existing government but leaves in its wake both a power vacuum AND a huge pool of able-bodied men hell-bent on revenge.
The "Russian" way of war is completely different: it aims to exhaust that pool of able-bodied men such that the powers-that-be have no choice but to capitulate as all options run out.
Think of WW1. Was there a 10 year insurgency following the end of that war.
Think of WW2. Again, did the defeated Axis revert to decades of "insurgency"?
No, in both cases the defeated were not "shocked and awed", they were exhausted. And like all who are exhausted they lacked both the will-power and the energy to keep going. They stopped, and the entire population accepted that they were defeated.
That's what the Russians are aiming for, and that's why it is the height of stupidity for western pundits to find fault in the Russian stategy.
Stupid is as stupid does, and the powers-that-be in the west are surely the stupidest people on Earth.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 22
Ukraine cannot win this war. It does not matter how many times NATO shills say otherwise.It's true, Ukrainians have no chance because of demographics, Russia is much larger, what do they expect? This week, a Ukrainian report came out that 8.6 million left the country, only 9 million are working, excluding civil servants, this is 6-7 million of the working population. And they must support more than 20 million pensioners and others.
After the coup in 2014, Ukraine is ruled by a bunch of fucking idiots, look at what they have turned their country into ruins.
Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 7 2023 12:16 utc | 23
I do not dismiss Shoigu's explanation as quickly as b does.
It seems obvious to me that this "Great Spring/Summer/Fall/Winter Counter Offensive" is grossly undermanned and under-equipped, and the Ukrainian General Staff is acutely aware of it. In which case they would dearly want to reinforce it with everything they can scrape together, from where-ever they can find it.
And there are Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region, and those forces are stuck there doing nothing because they know that those forces aren't sufficient to launch an attack across the Dnieper.
But, by golly, they'd make a very useful reinforcement for the counter offensive further north. Indeed, they may even make the difference between some semblance of success and outright, disastrous failure.
Q: But how to redeploy the Kherson forces without inviting the Russians to just waltz in during their absence?
A: Easy, just blow the dam and the Ukrainians could hold out on the other side of the river with two men and a dog.
I personally think that Shoigu is correct.
That's what the Ukrainians have done, because that's what I would do in their shoes: blow the dam to free up all the troops in Kherson as reinforcements for the Big Offensive further north.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 7 2023 12:28 utc | 24
go away in 10-15 days... https://t.me/rezident_ua/18160
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:47 utc | 12
like mud LOL! 2 m deep in the BLACK SOIL
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 7 2023 12:30 utc | 25
Bridging units and ferries! The next wandewaffen???
🤡😆
I don’t give a Dam(n) about their hopes and wishes - ‘they are F****d and they know they are ‘
Pardon me while I repost most of my last comment from previous thread , it fits well with the latest from the PRgurus
Dam was a ‘natural’ failure ? - on D-Day? after the failures of the counterattack starting, useless tanks , wonderweapons, bakhmut failing, sanctions disaster, the world leaders of the 85% human population moving on … with their old masters and ‘lovers’ screaming blue murder, crying abandonment, losing their control on the goods and chattels they have been long accustomed to?
There is only gnashing, wailing and the ‘fury of a woman scorned’ that is the EuroAryan Imperial dream coming to the end of the End.
It means of course that many old family lines and their Old Companies are no longer going to benefit from absolute power and non-competition.
It means their grand plans of continued control through various subterfuges and Fears - a golden Billion, over population, Saving the Planet (who the fuck was in charge of it being fucked anyway?) , global cooling, warming or whatever, dodgy new diseases that Life on Earth has always managed to evolve through- all are at an end.
No old Sky fairy, God , heaven and hell, or new dodgy religions based on cataclysm or new Sky fairies , saviour syndrome or superiority complex will ever bring back the Inferiority Complex of the majority of human beings for the benefit of a very very few who have always had it their way.
Their fury is what we are witnessing, they threaten to burn down the whole house as some form of coercive negotiation. And they put into place a raft of non-male frontmen ( well some of them even are dressed and allowed to identify as woman- amazing how few there are the opposite way isn’t it?) to gaslight the remaining Stockholm Syndromed Collective Wasters into believing some new age fairy tale of Hollywood of Woke gender fluid Specialness!
It ain’t happening, it will not be able to happen, the grown ups have finally taken back control of genuine human civilisation and development in the World.
All that is left to do is to clean the stinking Augean Stables - the flood of the broken dam is as good a metaphorical start as any.
The thieving bastard ancient robber barons in their ever shapeshifter’s guises, can run but they will never again be able to hide their stolen booty and pass it on down the generations as they have always been used to.
That is the gnashing and wailing and denial we hear daily from the mostly unelected and bargaining to come too , before they will finally accept that IT IS OVER and the majority of humanity and the Multipolarists DONT GIVE A DAM(N). 😉
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 7 2023 12:34 utc | 26
...from The Daily Beast --
A crisis appears to be brewing in Ukraine’s revolving door of army recruits.
At the beginning of the war, a patriotic fervor overran Ukraine, with men and women volunteering in the tens of thousands. The borders with Poland and Moldova were thronged not just with refugees leaving the country, but with Ukrainians flocking back to take up arms to defend their country.Now, it is a different story. A year of grueling attrition warfare has been described as ‘hell on earth’ by at least four soldiers who spoke with The Daily Beast this year, stripping much of the glamor away from combat service.
In turn, the number of Ukrainian volunteers has drastically dipped, forcing the military to rely heavily on conscription. Those drafted in that process, which is opaque and seemingly random, are often inexperienced.
In an interview with The Washington Post this spring, a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel complained that he was now leading a unit composed “entirely of inexperienced troops,” some of whom would not fire their guns because they were “afraid of the sound of the shot.”. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 7 2023 12:41 utc | 27
Propaganda is the evil twin of power – both sharing the identical gene of delusion. Unless the forces propelling humanity towards nuclear Armageddon grasp the pattern of history in its simple syllogism: every empire eventually faces the conflict it is trying to avoid, its own destruction; everyone wants to avoid WW III; so, there will be another world war. Paradoxically, the only way of changing our fate is first to accept this clear logic – and convey the meaning to those leading us towards annihilation.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Jun 7 2023 12:51 utc | 28
My take out from the videos from Russian attack helicopters hovering and firing missiles with total impunity, is that the Ukranians have no AD against them and that basically seals the fate of any offensive that doesn't have any realistic defence against fixed wing and helicopter Close Air Support (CAS).
It's just suicide in an era of guided missiles and glide bombs.
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 7 2023 12:52 utc | 29
An interesting Russian take on current events...
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 7 2023 12:10 utc | 23
--------
He is a Jew, right? :)
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 12:56 utc | 30
David Ignatius at WaPo is a top level guy. He gets the best briefing, is told what to write from the head office. Combine what b quotes above with what Blinken just said in Finland. Maybe, just maybe, Blinken and Ignatius don't believe what they are saying. Every subordinate is taking it as gospel.
It will take a big defeat followed by unconditional surrender to make any American believe we are not winning. Most still don't believe we really lost in Vietnam. You only get the attention of someone so dumb as an American with repeated application of blunt trauma. And after they admit the truth apply some more blunt trauma. For a long time. They have thick skulls.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 7 2023 12:58 utc | 31
There’s some more about the ammonia pipeline sabotage from Sputnik: https://sputnikglobe.com/20230607/ukraine-blows-up-togliatti-odessa-ammonia-pipeline-in-kharkov-region---moscow-1110978754.html
As the article suggests, this incident is likely to scupper any further renewing of the grain export deal.
Ukraine Blows Up Togliatti-Odessa Ammonia Pipeline in Kharkov RegionMOSCOW, (Sputnik) - A Ukrainian sabotage group has blown up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline in the Kharkov region. There are casualties among the civilian population, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
"On June 5, at about 21:00 Moscow time [18:00 GMT], a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group blew up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline near the settlement Masyutovka in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.
The explosion of the pipeline was designated as a terrorist attack, there are victims among the civilian population, they have "received the necessary medical assistance," according to the MoD."Currently, ammonia residues are being drained from the Ukrainian territory through the damaged sections of the pipeline. There are no casualties among Russian soldiers," the ministry said.
Footage appeared online showing the consequences of Monday's sabotage attack, showing toxic clouds of ammonia vapor pouring into the local environment.
Ammonia is not recognized as a traditional chemical weapons agent, but exposure to very high levels of the chemical can damage the lungs and cause death. Ammonia is also highly toxic to fish, wildlife, and plant life.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said repair work to the pipeline could take up to three months, and only if Russia is able to assure access to the attack site."One of the pumping stations has been rendered out of order. The blocking valves worked, but a leak of raw materials nevertheless occurred. According to preliminary estimates, work to repair and restore [the pipeline] will take about about one to three months. This, of course, will require access to the site of the damage," Zakharova said at a briefing.
The spokeswoman highlighted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he could "fix the problem" regarding the damaged pipeline, "but this does not mean readiness on his part to resume the transportation of ammonia. We will make an effort to clarify the circumstances of the incident. But even now we can already state that only one party was never interested in reanimating the pipeline - the Kiev regime."
The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline runs from the Russian region of Samara, entering Ukraine at Kharkov and pushing south and west toward the Black Sea coastal city of Odessa, where the resource is exported. Ammonia is a key raw material used in the enrichment of natural fertilizers.
The pipeline was built in 1979, and, until recently, transported up to 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year. The pipeline's use was stopped last February after the smouldering crisis in the Donbass escalated into a full-blown Russia-NATO proxy war in Ukraine. Russia has sought to reactivate the pipeline as part of the Grain Deal negotiated with help from Turkiye and the United Nations last year. Last month, Moscow warned that if its demands to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT and relaunch the pipeline were not addressed, the Grain Deal would be terminated after July 17.
The sabotage attack against the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline is the second major act of environmental terror which Moscow has accused Kiev of carrying out this week.
On Tuesday, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam in the Russian portion of Kherson Region was destroyed by Ukrainian shelling, causing millions of tons of freshwater to gush into the local environment, flooding cities, forests, and farmlands, and threatening to unleash an ecological catastrophe. Ukrainian officials and their Western curators have blamed Moscow for the attack. However, a number of respected US commentators including journalist Tucker Carlson and former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter have pointed out that Russia lacked any motivation to attack the dam -which helped to assure water security in Crimea, and provided crucial water supplies used to cool the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. Kiev forces have targeted the Kakhovka plant and its dam since the spring of 2022, and Moscow spent well over a year warning of the catastrophe that would result if the dam was damaged or destroyed.
The attack on the ammonia pipeline is also the second major act of sabotage against civilian pipeline infrastructure since the September 2022 attack on the Nord Stream network, which resulted in the largest-ever methane emission event in human history.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Jun 7 2023 13:11 utc | 32
David Ignatius at WaPo is a top level guy.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 7 2023 12:58 utc | 34
----------
Can anyone at WaPo be a "top level guy', by the way?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 13:13 utc | 33
Why do you keep calling this a war? It is a SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION and I will tolerate no other designation for it! And Russia will WIN WIN WIN because they are morally superior to the decadent Zionist-Fascist-Capitalist West.
And the Ukrainians flooded their own territory because they are secretly masochists who need to be saved from themselves by being called back into the warm, loving lap of the Motherland of the Russian Fatherland.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Jun 7 2023 13:14 utc | 34
⚠️ Brief summary. Zaporozhye front.The enemy undertook reconnaissance in force along the line of the settlement of Lobkovoe - Pyatikhatka, with the forces of 6 American-made armored combat vehicles (M113, Humvee), with the support of tanks.
He had no success, lost 1 infantry fighting vehicle, losses in manpower - up to a platoon, at the moment the enemy has rolled back to their original positions and is regrouping.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32759
⚡️ Message from the Zaporozhye direction from the Russian military“We went to a disco, 10 tanks (of the enemy) were destroyed, I don’t even count pickups”
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32761
▪️ The main dam has withstood - the Kakhovka reservoir will probably go down a few meters. We will most likely revise our defense plans, but this is not a problem. There will be no offensive actions in the Kherson direction now because of the wet land: the water will subside, the ground will take a long time to dry out. Reserves from here can be used in other directions.▪️ The problems with the Armed Forces of the Ukraine began where they were not expected - in Novodonetsk: the enemy has been storming it for three days, but has not been able to take it. Several dozen of our boys, under the cover of aviation and artillery, are holding back the attacks . It is pointless to attack further in this direction for the Armed Forces of the Ukraine: this is a convenient place from where they planned to cut our group off in order to push it back. But their losses here are high, which corrects the plans for the counteroffensive, and the dam is a beautiful cover for all the West to see.
▪️ In the Artyomovsk direction , they also tried to break through our defenses, but without any success. We recall the Great Patriotic War: when our army stood tightly on the defensive, the Wehrmacht could not break through - like the Wehrmacht of 2023.
The main forces have not yet entered the battle?
▪️ For now it's only a few brigades. Dozens have been prepared. They will send them in when the enemy senses our weak spot. Sending them in now makes no military sense: our aircraft and artillery will destroy them.
▪️ In the Zaporozhye direction, the Armed Forces of the Ukraine are probing positions. In the area of Avdeevka, Svatovo, they are trying to imitate activity. The main directions will be the Orekhovo and Zaporozhye directions. And the area of Ugledar and Velikaya Novoselovka is an auxiliary direction in order to inflict a local defeat on us, then destroy our defenses with the main blow.
What's next: storming the ZNPP by boats or a pontoon ferry to the left bank ?
▪️ Neither one changes anything. The fact that the reservoir is losing water is rather a minus for the Armed Forces of the Ukraine: open places will appear - landings on sandy beaches which will fall under fire.
YURI PODOLYAKA
Looks like AFU attack failed and stalemated in Vremivka area, especially in crucial Novodonetsk - they have begun attacking close to the Dnepr shore, south of Zaporozhye which is the main expected assault but have yet to introduce most of their Nato trained brigades.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 13:15 utc | 35
Come on, b, we knew that the last resort of the scoundrels and bought-and-paid-for stooges in the western press would be:
LIE, LIE, LIE, LIE, LIE, LIE, LIE!!
It's all they have, now.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 7 2023 13:17 utc | 36
I do not know what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius or the Biden administration officials he is talking to are smoking, but it must be extraordinary strong stuff:
Administration officials were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday
Well, now the meaning is clear of all those statements earlier expressing high confidence in the success of the offensive. PR. Nothing else.
Posted by: BM | Jun 7 2023 13:18 utc | 37
snake | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 24
What year?
The offensive was touted as being a Spring offensive, it is now Summer. The current acceleration of Ukraine attacks is going nowhere and they lack the resources to stop, start, feint or shift. It is either rip, shit or bust for them and they are looking very much like they are busting.
The West only ever give them enough to keep the pot simmering, never enough to win. This reality may be just beginning to dawn on the Ukrainians as they look around at their devastated country and think about the feasibility of the nation in the future.
They however have very little choice in the matter as I think the original US plan was to turn Ukraine into an Iraq or Libya scenario, ie. a failed state awash with weapons and hooligans. The Russians were supposed to choke on this poison pill, but so far have not swallowed it. This is still in play for NATO as they are still more interested in making life difficult for Russia than they are in improving the lives of Ukrainians.
The current Ukraine regime can't dismount the tiger, besides there is a lot of money in it for them. Ukrainian patriots might view it all quite differently. Ukraine is far from a unified country and I doubt that it will hold together for much longer.
Nevertheless, the Americans will move on. They have already told Zelensky he hasn't got much time before the funds dry up. However, Europe will be totally screwed on account of their warmongering the and loss of the resources their partnership with Russia might have provided but are no longer available due to US sanctions and their own hubris.
Having sorted out Europe, the US wants to sort out China, so Ukraine will be forgotten or ignored, like the wet patches on the front of your incontinent grandfathers trousers.
Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 7 2023 13:20 utc | 38
Having sorted out Europe, the US wants to sort out China, ...
Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 7 2023 13:20 utc | 41
----------------
Then the USA will suddenly find out that very little amount of Asians will ever side with it. In the end, USA will lose its bases in Japan and South Korea.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 13:28 utc | 39
Say what you will about the ineptitude of the Ukrainian offensive, the dam disaster is still a major embarrassment for Russia and a catastrophe for thousands of ordinary civilians who did not deserve this. The Putin regime is turning itself into a joke with these repeated security lapses.
Russia made a big show of wanting to promote peace and security, to protect the lives of civilians, to be a good actor on the world stage. That was the entire psychological justification behind the SMO. But Russia continues to leave massive pieces of critical infrastructure unguarded, even though it knows it has a terrorist state operating next door to it which has already announced its intentions to destroy and raise havoc.
Russia forgot the very first rule: Si vis pacem, para bellum. The peaceful aims of the SMO have failed because Russia failed to destroy the terrorists and psychopaths in Kiev. Demolishing the Ukrainian military is not enough, the Ukrainian regime needs to be punished and destroyed. If it is not, it will always be able to scrape together enough mercenaries commit acts of terror against the Russian people. The assassinations, terror bombing, shelling, and infrastructure destruction will continue---forever. There will be more Nord Streams, more Darya Duginas, more Kakhovka dams, as long as the Zelensky regime exists.
Why do you not see this, Putin? Who are you trying to impress with your kid gloves? Your people are dying because you won't kill their oppressors, which you have the power to do. The moment of truth has arrived: Either Zelensky's regime will die, or yours will.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 7 2023 13:38 utc | 40
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Jun 7 2023 13:14 utc | 37
I will not tolerate.....
Who the Hell are you? You don't own this blog. This is a war with people being blown to smithereens. You know just like the Korean(police action) War.
Posted by: Morongobill | Jun 7 2023 13:39 utc | 41
@37 NM Larkey,
well, yes, actually, for the most part of it.
Only, Russia calls it a SMO and not a war because they consider a large part of the Ukrainians as family members so to speak.
NATO on the other hand doesn't call it a war out of sheer hypocrisy and probably cowardice.
So it is clear indeed who is morally superior here.
Your sarcasm is self-defeating I think.
Posted by: Anthony | Jun 7 2023 13:39 utc | 42
@ 38
It is pointless to attack further in this direction for the Armed Forces of the Ukraine:. . .
We can talk strategy, we can discuss armored vehicles and helicopters, it's like talking about the weather. The simple fact is that success in combat comes down to the soldiers who are involved. If they're not highly motivated and well-trained over a period of time, their side will lose. This is what the situation is for Ukraine forces, as touched on in my #30 above.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 7 2023 13:43 utc | 43
Yeah, Right | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 25
Good comment.
That is what I was trying to articulate in my comment. The West only leaves devastation in the wake of their "victories".
Russia wants none of that. Hence their reluctance to destroy the Ukrainian government.
I could be wrong, but I can't think of a single instance where life was improved in a country where the US brought them FREEDOM.
Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 7 2023 13:44 utc | 44
Dimitry Orlov on _elensky: «By being elected with the promise of ending hostilities, then immediately proceeding to escalate the conflict in the east»
That is quite wrong: the defining moment of _elensky's career was not when he became Kolomoisky's actor-president, but when he visited the frontline in the Donbas, to talk with the military units there about implementing the Minsky treaties, and the fascist militia soldiers threatening him, and him saying "I am not some loser":
https://www.unian.info/war/10732674-i-m-not-some-loser-zelensky-to-volunteer-during-visit-to-disengagement-area.html
«"Listen, I'm the president of this state. I'm 42. I’m not some loser. I came here to you, telling you 'take away your weapons'."»
Eventually he realized that he *was* a "loser", and that he could not control the fascist militias funded and trained by the USA government, and they would kill him if he opposed them and the plans of their USA sponsors to "bait the bear".
That was the second defining moment, after the 9 May 2014 Mariupol Massacre, that started Poroshenko's war against the Donbas and eventually the RF.
Posted by: Blissex | Jun 7 2023 13:48 utc | 45
@Anthony 45
did the administration call it "war" they might have had to mobilize in fact. And a "war" has some extra serious legal and economic and psychological consequences for RUs.
To call it "limited war" would have sounded fucked.
SO they had to give it some name.
And what do you call a war that´s getting people killed but far less than it could?
After all, 3/4 of Ukraine have been left alone by ground toops.
(but in discussions I call it "war" myself. If what we called "war in Donbass" its only consequential)
Posted by: AG | Jun 7 2023 13:50 utc | 46
Nothing wrong with smoking the strong stuff.
As long as you dont do it while selecting which meatgrinder you will send your citizens' children to.
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 7 2023 13:54 utc | 47
@ ostro | Jun 7 2023 13:13 utc | 36
> Can anyone at WaPo be a "top level guy', by the way?
At that particular pile of shit, maybe yes.
Posted by: natokraine | Jun 7 2023 14:04 utc | 48
Posted by: Blissex | Jun 7 2023 13:48 utc | 48
Eventually he realized that he *was* a "loser", and that he could not control the fascist militias funded and trained by the USA government, and they would kill him if he opposed them and the plans of their USA sponsors to "bait the bear".
Yep, this is the entire reason we are in this mess in the first place - Zelensky never had control of the radical militias (NATO trained) running wild in the Donbas since 2014. There was never going to be any lasting peace deal.
Posted by: Frank McGar | Jun 7 2023 14:04 utc | 49
Noam A. Larkey | Jun 7 2023 13:14 utc | 37
Perhaps the US could be honest and declare the war.
If that happens humanity is in a very difficult position.
War, despite what some people say, is a highly proscribed activity and when it is declared the constraints are gone.
That means Nukes every where and total civilian devastation. My view is it is better to keep quiet about it.
Posted by: ZimZum | Jun 7 2023 14:06 utc | 50
Re: NATO Bridging Equipment
I vaguely recall that US Army took over a month to bridge the Sava after the 1995 Bosnia Treaty was signed. It was a bit of a keystone cops scene.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 7 2023 14:21 utc | 51
Right Now: "Thousands of animals killed in Novaya Kakhovka national park after dam's destruction"
Just Another Disaster of Joe Biden's and the Republicans' Collaboration with the Ukraine's Far, Far, Far Right Regime. You know what I mean
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jun 7 2023 14:23 utc | 52
Re: Posted by: snake | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 24
“The planned offensive will likely not start until late July or August.”
There is no “planned offensive”… no logistics, no strategy, no commanders. You’ve got a National leader running around month after month, begging for arms, ammunition, weapons, air support & air defense, money to pay salaries of everyone and their military, no coordination. Just a bunch of “units” trained in various Western countries. Equipment & arms from 40 different nations. No uniformity. No central command as evidenced by the “every man (unit) for himself” battlefield “tactics”.
No, the got bodies & equipment to randomly, at whims, throw into an offense.
You’ve got intel & commanders from US/UK/Ukr/Poland/France all “planning” a very un-synchronized hodge podge of supposed “committed” arms ect “support & equipment” & 100s (maybe 1000s) training somewhere.
The results: Mass military casualties & resorting to repeated terrorist attacks out of desperation.
There is no “planned offensive”… never was.
Just “planned” hopeful international pressure to get Russia to leave… to that… failure now & in future. All backfired. There is no plan “B”.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 7 2023 14:25 utc | 53
I'm seeing a lot of fiddling at the margins with small suicide recon missions.
Keiv needs to get serious, and launch one or two really big suicide attacks.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 7 2023 14:30 utc | 54
Figleaf23 @57
They are committing suicide as a country, how much bigger can it get?
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 7 2023 14:35 utc | 55
Intelligent Dasein @ 43
Ukraine/NATO has a big playbook of crap they can pull out whenever today's news looks bad. So the long proclaimed offensive turns to shit on day one. Blow the dam. Good enough for a distraction. Takes headlines for three days until news of the debacle on battlefield fades. They can and will do this again and again.
It works way better for zombified propaganda consumers in West than it does in reality. Right now to anyone on the planet less than totally hypnotized US looks like a loser. At some point, hopefully, even the mass of Nazi freaks realize they backed the wrong horse and are a bunch of losers.Can such a realization happen? Maybe. It will require a big stack of dead bodies. Its not over yet.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 7 2023 14:37 utc | 56
Re: Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 7 2023 13:38 utc | 43
Oh ok! According to you, Russia is supposed to feel “embarrassed” or “ashamed” because of a bunch of Nazi terrorist **ckheads calling themselves a Nation, kill and terrorize people.
It’s a war. Grow up. Here with you we have the usual West mindset ( even if you are a Russian) of “blame the victim” cause they didn’t “do enough” to not get killed.
“Putins gloves off “ …. Again… grow up… there are more lives here than “Putins”. Armchair generals & “what they would do” are the worst.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 7 2023 14:42 utc | 57
Figleaf23 | Jun 7 2023 14:30 utc | 57
They heard you. The attack towards Melitopol is 20k and 90 tanks says the RU social media. Also they say Global Hawk FORTE11 keeps flying near Crimea closer than allowed.
Posted by: rk | Jun 7 2023 14:44 utc | 58
Maria Zakharova called on Washington to first reveal the truth about the political assassinations of American presidents, and not teach other states how to live.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 14:52 utc | 59
What are the odds NATO enters western Ukraine as this Kiev offensive peters out?
It does not seem to be getting its due consideration.
Posted by: Talleyrand | Jun 7 2023 11:23 utc | 1
I know. Everyone with two neurons to rub together knows that Ukraine can't win. And by going on the offensive against entrenched Russian positions they have decided to throw their reserves away in the most expedient fashion.
But what wil Washington do? Losing Ukraine signals the end of American hegemony to the rest of the world, which the neocons can't accept. But the only card they have left to play is a false flag to bring in NATO.
I'm calling it the Nuland Surprise, and I don't know how likely it is. NATO doesn't have much of a chance of winning, but the neocons think that they are invincible and inevitable, kinda like Thanos.
The real question is 'are there any sane realists left in the Biden administration?' If there are, then no NATO. If it's neocons all they way down, then NATO will be going in this summer.
C'mon B, Zelensky is our 21st Century's Churchill, don't you know that in Ukraine " We shall fight on YouTube, we shall fight on FaceBook, we shall fight in The Guardian and in the NY Times, we shall fight on all Western Media; we shall never surrender!"
Propaganda, Propaganda, Über Alles!
Posted by: Eric Blair | Jun 7 2023 14:54 utc | 61
Global Hawk FORTE11 keeps flying near Crimea closer than allowed.
Must be loads of data Moscow is downloading and decrypting from the Communications of that Global Hawk.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 7 2023 14:54 utc | 62
Yeah, Right | Jun 7 2023 12:12 utc | 25
I agree.
On of that, I don’t think that Russia would like to pay rebuilding of the whole country called Ukraine.
It cost a lot to Russia helping eastern Europe countries after WWII (cheap energy for example).
No many thanks from them.
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 7 2023 14:55 utc | 63
The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to be pushed back due to a significant weakening of the Ukrainian army. And, what is remarkable, it was immediately noticed in the West. In particular, the American columnist Jamie Dettmer, in his article for Politico, writes that the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the hostilities does not resemble the counteroffensive promised by Kiev, but "only a prelude to it."According to him, there is no evidence that Ukraine uses units specially trained for the counteroffensive in combat operations. Dettmer himself believes that the Ukrainian military can now conduct reconnaissance activities to test the reaction of Russian forces.
It is worth noting that this state of affairs was a consequence of the fact that Russian strikes carried out a huge amount of military equipment: at present, Ukraine has neither a fleet nor a sufficient amount of aircraft, and the reconnaissance tactics in force (which are probably alluded to in Politico) are leads to significant losses. And in such conditions, a full-fledged counteroffensive is tantamount to suicide.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18167
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 14:57 utc | 64
Turks continue to leak insidersAccording to them, in the north of the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainian army is preparing a new, larger corps of 30,000 people for a breakthrough from the Orekhovsky line towards Melitopol.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to strike with the forces of 100-150 tanks, 300 guns and MLRS, and from 500 to 1000 units of light armored vehicles, overcome minefields with masses of equipment and manpower, break through the Russian defensive lines, and then create a bridgehead where it is planned to introduce a group of not more than less than 50,000 bayonets. It is designed to expand the breakthrough.
To mask the main direction of attack, small attacks and artillery shelling continue along the front line.
The moment Ukraine launches an offensive of this magnitude, it will literally enter the final phase of its military effort, and the cessation of such attacks will be the clearest sign of Ukraine's final defeat.
Ukraine has no other choice but to win, otherwise, in the face of a war of attrition, its current 4 million people in the form of already drafted, killed, commissioned and mobile resources will sooner or later be exhausted.
All Russia needs to do is properly use its firepower and manpower reserves to prevent any attempt to push its group back.
TG /Masno
Sounds like the big one is coming soon.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 14:57 utc | 65
"The peace and freedom loving West, including the Ukraine, has always been at war with Russia."
Ukraine war, LGBT outrage, climate panic, et cetera. Engineered distractions while the big works are carried out in the background: introduction of digital passport via WHO, tranfer of power from national governments to WHO, replacement of current fiat currencies with CBDCs, introduction of 'universal basic income', lockdowns forever (15 minute ghettos). When people lose interest in the Ukraine/LGBT/climate/.. discussions, they'll realise they're trapped forever in the New Normal Fascism - digital and total.
Posted by: Leser | Jun 7 2023 14:57 utc | 66
Do you know what the risk is if now the West follows the lead of our office propaganda and starts spinning a case with the accusation of the Russian Federation of blowing up the dam, demanding stronger sanctions, stigmatizing the country as a terrorist, and stuff like that?The West will have to
1) give Ukraine more weapons and more powerful ones. (This is beneficial to Zelensky, but it will increase the degree of war, the risk of a third world war, which is not yet beneficial to the West).
2) give Ukraine more money. Nobody is in a hurry either.
3). It will open a window of opportunity for Russia, that it will then be possible to demolish all the hydroelectric power stations, especially the Kyiv one, and it can barely breathe there anyway.Read about the Kyiv dam the material of the Kyiv professor, who for 10 years has been talking about the fact that a catastrophe is approaching. In this case, what do the Russians have to lose, because they will always be blamed even for what they did not do. In this way, Ukraine can inflict real damage on the economic heart of the country.
Conclusion: the case of the Kakhovskaya HPP will not yet have a result at the international level. Zelensky understands this. Starting to use it in the internal public market to stir up "hatred" for the Russians and try to raise morale and draw more people into the army again.
Almost no one wants to fight anymore, but the losses are growing, the shortage of manpower in the army is growing and will continue to grow.
The network is now specifically dispersing negative theses that the Russians have abandoned civilians, they are sitting on rooftops, and so on. At this moment, the OP shows dozens of videos of saving animals and people, warming up the emotional background.
The Russians themselves are to blame for the failure of the information campaign in this case. As usual, he was slammed.
As they say, it doesn't matter how you really do it, what matters is how you present it to the whole country. This 95th quarter (OP) knows how to do the best (create an illusion).After all, a Ukrainian who conditionally lives in the same Vinnitsa does not understand anything and does not know how things really are there, but seeing a picture in social media, he builds his vision.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15550
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 14:59 utc | 67
It was said sometime back that the measure of success or failure of Ukraine's offensive would be determined by the first days of such offensive.
If the Ukrainian offensive has indeed been launched and if 2 or more days have elapsed since that offensive began, it looks like defeat for Ukraine.
If it is defeat, then the USA and NATO know that Ukraine will not be able to push the Russians back. So, the USA will move on to the nuclear option.
Also, the Ukrainian forces may retreat to the East bank of the Dnieper River.
I suspect the AFU will soon retreat to the East bank of the Dnieper. This would allow the Russians to quickly take and secure Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetzk.
Posted by: young | Jun 7 2023 15:01 utc | 68
Information continues to leak from Turkey. According to them, in the north of the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainian army is preparing a new, larger corps of 30 thousand people for a breakthrough from the Orekhovsky line towards Melitopol.The Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to strike with the forces of 100-150 tanks, 300 guns, and MLRS, and from 500 to 1000 units of light armored vehicles, overcome minefields with masses of equipment and manpower, break through the Russian defensive lines, and then create a bridgehead where it is planned to introduce a group of not less than 50 thousand bayonets. She's meant to expand the breakthrough
To mask the main direction of attack, small attacks and artillery shelling continue along the front line.The moment Ukraine launches an offensive of this magnitude, it will enter the final phase of its military effort, and the cessation of such attacks will be the clearest sign of Ukraine's final defeat.
Ukraine has no other choice but to win, otherwise, in the face of a war of attrition, its current 4 million people in the form of already drafted, killed, commissioned, and mobile resources will sooner or later be exhausted.
All Russia needs to do is properly use its firepower and manpower reserves to prevent any attempt to push its group back.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/49553
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 15:01 utc | 69
Posted by: Felin | Jun 7 2023 11:35 utc | 6
Thanks for that.
Seems the Russians are not getting enough of a workout from the Ukrainians, and are taking themselves on.
Or it might be a stressed author with no proofreading backup.
Posted by: Marduk | Jun 7 2023 15:03 utc | 70
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 7 2023 14:55 utc | 66
They will not pay rebuilding for anything except that of the provinces that have joined RF. A lot of the banderist freeloaders will be sent off packing to the west of Ukraine to the enjoyment of western countries social welfare budgets, which will also solve the internal security issues of Novorrosiya. Everyone staying will be vetted very carefully and on case-basis.
Novorrossiya will be in a bad state, but all the stuff will be redesigned and rebuilt starting from a clean sheet. Chinese and non-western companies will come in with investments etc. The Chinese are already buying refined metals from Donbass.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:04 utc | 71
"This offensive is going better than expected"
Lol when you have rock bottom expectations your life is gravy
"Its going great, folks. Keklenzki is still snorting and tiktokin in his basement and the Big Guy still getting his 1%"
Posted by: Comandante | Jun 7 2023 15:05 utc | 72
Just seen - what do you make of it? Zelensky can be overthrown in a failed counteroffensive
This was stated by the former adviser to the second President of Ukraine Kuchma Oleg Soskin.
He believes that the consequences of the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the Kherson region are larger for Ukraine than the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
“If the counter-offensive bogs down, then an internal uprising will begin. Zelensky's power is melting like snow in the sun. The vital resources of Zelensky, Yermak and this group are evaporating. Now his homeland Krivoy Rog will perish without water,” the expert said in his blog.
Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Jun 7 2023 15:07 utc | 73
32 JulianJ
For over a week I have had in the back of my mind the question of how much usage of rotary wing helicopters whenever the UKR starts their "offensive." I appreciate the post. If anyone finds any other good info sources on how much rotary was utilized and status of UKR AD on front, it would be deeply appreciated.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 7 2023 15:11 utc | 74
@ aquileia | Jun 7 2023 14:35 utc | 58
They need to step it up. Moloch is getting impatient.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 7 2023 15:12 utc | 75
Posted by: Blissex | Jun 7 2023 11:46 utc | 11
>Ahhhh, the usual pointless debates about who is going to "win" this SMO. My guess as always is that the USA strategists badly want Ukraine to lose, as slowly as possible, as bloodily as possible, so eventually phase 3 (phase 1 was the ukrainian fascist attack against the Donbas, phase 2 the counter-attack by the Donbas and the RF), the "stay behind" insurgency can fully begin, and in 10-20 years the upper-middle and upper classes of Moscow and St. Petersburg will will become tired of that push for regime change.
I share your exasperation with the child-like impatience of most posters here. This conflict has many years to go. Sit back and enjoy watching. More interesting than any football game, especially for tbose of us with connections to Ukraine. Anyway, final ending is not and was never in question. But that ending is not the one Blissex describes.
Russia has to break Ukraine's will to resist. There are 2 ways to do this. Part one is kill or imprison minority of hardened fanatics. This is being partly accomplished now and will be completed by future Ukrainian government, which will likely use Chechnya style shared responsibility: family and friends of convicted terrorists also get punished unless they helped catch and convict the terrorist.
Part two is to slowly convince silent majority of Ukrainians that cooperation with Russia is better than alliance with USA/NATO and hostility towards Russia. This will require many years: USA/EU must disappoint delusional dreams of Ukrainians for pots of dollars and euros to be dumped on their heads when war is over, whereas Russia must deliver on its promises of decent standard of living in areas it occupies. This argues for Russia occupying just a small part of Ukraine, no more than it can afford to rebuild, and for Russia to drag war out so that Ukraine has dug itself into an impossible economic hole by time war ends: government property all sold to Blackrock, huge debts to IMF, productive young people moved away, manufacturing businesses all shut down, etc. Economic hole has to be deep enough that USA/EU can't fill it without feeling serious economic pain themselves, and also deep enough that Ukraine is tempted to get out the hole the easy way. Namely, default on all IMF debts, nullify sales to Blackrock, breaks other contracts with USA/EU, otherwhere wipe slate clean and rely on trade with Russia/China/Iran/Turkey/India/etc in case IMF/USA/EU impose sanctions.
USA cannot tolerate 10-20 years wait because of China. Until Ukraine resolved, Russia guaranteed to give China 100% backing in any conflict with USA, and USA knows it is doomed against China/Russia alliance plus Iran to give an Indian ocean outlet. In particular, China/Russia/Iran alliance could, in theory, escalate to attacking ocean shipping. USA and its allies are vastly more dependent on ocean shipping than China/Russia/Iran alliance (China currently depends on shipping, but it can and will adapt before blockading Taiwan or otherwise challenging USA). USA needs to either win soon or lose soon in Ukraine so it can focus on creating a split between Russia and China. That's USA's only hope for reining in China now that it has learned it can't regime change Russia.
Posted by: Revelo | Jun 7 2023 15:13 utc | 76
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 7 2023 13:38 utc | 43
“The peaceful aims of the SMO have failed because”
… fucking for virginity is difficult in practice.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jun 7 2023 15:13 utc | 77
Mark Sleboda describes the large over 20k AFU push from Orekhov as the StarCraft Zerg rush.
https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1666457446162874374
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:29 utc | 78
⚡️Urgent⚡️Zaporozhye. On the Orekhov-Tokmak highway, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stopped⚡️
After our troops struck with artillery at the advancing enemy infantry with the support of infantry fighting vehicles, he rolled back. At the same time, their mortar was destroyed with an accurate blow.
Judging by the actions of the enemy, we should expect another attack attempt this night or morning.
wargonzo
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32790
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:37 utc | 80
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:04 utc | 72
Fully agree.
China will invest, perhaps middle east countries too.
I read or heard from DNR authorities that they have some projects for Azovstal area in Mariupol, but probably not a big industrial area as of today, and architecture of towns that must be rebuilt would be not exactly the same. Probably less intrication living area and industrial area.
Posted by: FromFrance | Jun 7 2023 15:41 utc | 81
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President has classified the video of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, which shows the first minutes of the platinum breakthrough. Bankova refused a UN request to provide visual control personnel.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18161
Posted by: Down South | Jun 7 2023 11:49 utc | 13
... platinum breakthrough ... is it similar to "silver breakthrough" etc. or related to the fact that plotina means dam in Russian (I am guessing a translation based on voice recognition, "o" before an accented syllable sounds similar to "a" (using Spanish vowels) or exactly like "a" if you speak with Polish or Caucasian accent)? Additionally, it is not obvious to all readers here that Bankova is a name of a street in Kiev where Ukrainian office of the president is located.
English: platinum and dam, Russian: платина и плотина
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 7 2023 15:42 utc | 82
ostro | Jun 7 2023 11:42 utc | 9
Russia doesn't have to prove anything to any Nazis.
When you're right, you're right !
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Jun 7 2023 15:46 utc | 83
If our platinum breakthrough is successful, we'll be golden.
Posted by: aquileia | Jun 7 2023 15:47 utc | 84
TG channels report that a Patriot PAC-3 system which were assigned to cover the AFU advance was hit by a Lancet drone. Another estimate was it could have been IRIS-T.
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1666470154379882497
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:50 utc | 85
Apparently another patriot was destroyed by drones. I can't tell what contraption is in the pictures but the video should appear if confirmed.
Posted by: rk | Jun 7 2023 15:54 utc | 86
Lancet rule the skies and the ground in Zaporozhye today. Sources report massive deployment of these drones in combat, with plentiful accurate strikes.
https://t.me/remylind21/3224
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 7 2023 16:01 utc | 87
thanks b...
thanks oldhippie and a few others...
@ annie 79.... propaganda is what it is... ukraine is coming up roses every time!
Posted by: james | Jun 7 2023 16:02 utc | 88
@unimperator | Jun 7 2023 15:29 #78
Yes, it sounds like the "offensive" is being easily handled with artillery and air strikes (Lancet drones?)
Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 7 2023 16:15 utc | 89
Just an FYI:
My immediate reaction to the initiation of the SMO, back some year+ ago, was recorded on this blog.
It was thus:
"NATO is toast."
Meh. Maybe not so metaphorical and i honestly can't remember if that's the exact verbiage, but the words unequivocally evoked the meaning.
NATO is gone. NATO is done.
As goes NATO, so goes the EU.
What all of us should be considering, now, is how the US is going to supply its new industrial economy with basic resources.
The answer to that is:
It can't. BMW can re-orient itself towards the US mainland all it wants. But where is it going to get its steel? What factories are going to create its plastic molding? Yeah, the company will get its silicon chips from allied sources, but: how is it going to compensate people to design those chips?
Will those be German, American, or French chip designers?
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Jun 7 2023 16:16 utc | 90
Re: Bring in NATO
Roughly the equivalent of help from an incompetent call center.
Just what this circus needs is more rings.
Let NATO come. They should, they must, the show must go on.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 7 2023 16:18 utc | 91
Excellent b,
That's EXACTLY where Russia dropped 15 yes ( 15 ) Fab 500 bombs. You can imagine the carnage that caused. As reported by Slavyngrad.
In my opinion this is going to play a big part of any counter offensive. Step back in areas to lure them in and then drop the big bombs in bigger numbers. 15 Fab 500's in one small area nothing survives that. Russia has the capability to drop 50 in one area of they want to.
Posted by: Derek Henry | Jun 7 2023 16:20 utc | 92
Sounds like a rout...
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1666478699070234624
Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 7 2023 16:22 utc | 93
unimperator @ 71
Novorrossiya will be in a bad state, but all the stuff will be redesigned and rebuilt starting from a clean sheet. Chinese and non-western companies will come in with investments etc. The Chinese are already buying refined metals from Donbass.
Very much so, the Chinese seem to understand the importance of recycling their surplus, ie investing in their trading partners, ie Marshall Plan ie BRI, diametrically opposed to neoliberal, neo-colonial beggar your neighbor for all the lucre in a death spiral down the abyss. Took the Russians a long while to wake up and abandon current western economics but they caught on. The post WW2 USA-EU-Japan economic success will have it's modern expression in the China-Russia-RoW. In the end communist economists have a more profound understanding of capitalism - "capitalism with Chinese characteristics" is the plan for the RoW, Novorrossiya would make a perfect showcase.
I really wouldn't worry about Novorrossiya it'll be shiny and new in 20ys from selling and buying to the RoW while a rump Ukraine is bled dry with onerous debt to third world status as will all the rest of the ex-Warsaw pact that signed on to the EU death spiral.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 7 2023 16:26 utc | 94
(Lancet drones?)
Posted by: zeke2u | Jun 7 2023 16:15 utc | 89
---
Russian Ka-52 guided air-to-ground missiles have a ~5km standoff advantage against the Ukrainian countermeasures. They are shooting fish in a barrel.
https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-ka-52-alligators-get-their-own-hellfire-missiles/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LMUR
Posted by: too scents | Jun 7 2023 16:29 utc | 95
@ Talleyrand | 1
What are the odds NATO enters western Ukraine as this Kiev offensive peters out?It does not seem to be getting its due consideration.
Close to zero. But not so close that the Neocons in the US "leadership" aren't seriously considering the possibility.
Those Neocons do have that massive W. Virginian bunker under a mountain they can retreat to.
Does anyone here remember that Don Johnson movie, "A Boy and His Dog"?
Pretty much prescient, these days, i submit.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Jun 7 2023 16:30 utc | 96
Regardless of whether we call Russia's intervention in Ukraine SMO, war or police operation (as President Truman) called the US military intervention in Korea in 1950, Humanitarian Law is activated, which the parties must comply with. HL is activated either by a formal declaration of political-military differences or technically, when at least one of the parties uses military means. Generally speaking, anything that does not fall under Humanitarian Law is then labelled an act of terrorism. Therefore, it is pointless to discuss whether it is a war, SMO or any other designation. The UN tried in 1974, as a result of the Vietnam/American war being waged by the US without a formal declaration of war and thus not following HL, to define what war is. But it had to give up because no consensus could be reached on the definition. Instead, the use of military means was called aggression (General Assembly Resolution 3314 (xxix), 14 December 1974: Definition of aggression).
Posted by: Carlsson on the Roof | Jun 7 2023 16:35 utc | 97
NATO's Article 5 is good enough to be used to attack a poorer/weaker country such as Afghanistan, (or Serbia) but cannot be used against Russian Federation or China. The members of that NATO will fall out with each other, if they have to officially fight Russia or China. Most of the politicos at the helm today in the NATO countries shout bravely today, but will not directly fight Russia or China. The citizens of the NATO countries are not at all interested in fighting...and to die for nothing
NATO is a washout, a place for retired politicos to hang out. And, for retired, never-fought-a-real-war, generals to hang out.
Two missiles fly into Poland and killed two Polish, but was there that Article 5? Few weeks ago a woman horse rider found a Russian missile in a forest near Bydgoszcz, ~330kms into the country. It is said that the missile was fired in December 2022...and had a cement warhead. Any Article 5?
When time comes, Russia will walk right through the 3 Baltics. Do you think you'd find Slovaks, Czechs, Spanish, Italians etc, etc would decides to fight and die for those 3 Baltics?
NATO is a washout!
Posted by: ostro | Jun 7 2023 16:41 utc | 98
Simplicius's recap about the dam was rather good, particularly about the cui bono aspect and what caused the dam to breech. I provided the following comment:
"It appears the burst dam serves both sides in very similar ways. But as I commented earlier, the water will eventually recede and the breech will be somewhat easy to bridge as the road approaches will probably survive. IMO, both sides knew it would fail at some point but when was unknown Ukies increased pressure on the dam to speed the process. But if the Ukies knew to the day when it would break, they would have prepared their island troops for an orderly evacuation. In that regard, it appears the Russians were better prepared."
On the offensive, it's quite offensive in a very negative way well beyond stinks for Ukies. It appears they decided to expand the Bakhmut meatgrinder to the entire FEBA for the results are the same. Ukie casualty rates are what I expected to see as Russian attack helos are feasting on the massive target rich environment which Ukie forces have no defense against. The NATO supplied APC/IFVs are coffin taxis for their passengers and the few tanks are also easy prey. The AD means Ukies have don't have the range to engage the helos, a fact Martyanov and I have both made well prior to now, and we're seeing the results.
IMO, it's already clear that without any means of contesting Russian air supremacy, no adversary has a chance. NATO would need to commit its entire air force and all its AD systems to alter the course of the battle that would then allow it to commit all its armored forces. Not piecemeal--ALL. The tokens presented are quickly and easily destroyed. And it's not really the fault of the Ukies as IMO they've been set up for failure because NATO never properly appraised Russia's military capabilities and certainly didn't prepare their economies for waging high intensity industrial war. Hopefully once the Ukie energy is spent, Russia will embark on its own counter-offensive as IMO Ukie forces lack the means to halt a concerted effort--they may have troops, but no attack helos, AD, AF, or MBTs in the numbers required.
Since the Ukie offensive commenced close to the D-Day anniversary, an apt comparison would be the landings were repulsed with very heavy losses with many assault ships sunk, forcing the airborne forces to surrender. 100% debacle.
@ Revelo 76
"...nullify sales to Blackrock, breaks other contracts with USA/EU..."
Nullification is straight-forward under ordinary civil law in all nations. Contracts which were entered into under illegal duress, and contracts by parties who are not the legitimate owners, are never respected. All that has to be proven in any court of law is that (1) Ukraine no longer had a legitimate government and that this illegitimate regime was itself under duress from its owners in Washington. Item (1) is obvious. Yanukovitch was elected democratically and was overthrown in a violent coup. For the May, 2014 elections, major parties were banned by the coup leaders and major politicians went into hiding, fearing for their lives. So those 2014 elections were a sham. The only mistake I think the Kremlin had made, even realizing that Russia needed "to buy time", was to say those 2014 elections were legitimate, rather than remaining silent. But that's irrelevant, because the blessings of the Kremlin can't - and didn't - turn a sham election into a legitimate government in Kiev. Item (2) is obvious when it is admitted that Washington controls Kiev, and maybe the future will reveal documents showing direct pressure from BlackRock on Kiev. Incidentally, the directors of BlackRock are themselves guilty of war crimes by receiving stolen property on an immense scale, and they can expect to stand trial in the more-distant future.
Revelo, I agree that there will not be any 20-30 year guerilla and/or terrorist war. The West has run out of time, and also I think, Russia is determined to not allow a repeat of the 1945-1956 Soviet-Banderista war.
As I see it, one reason why Russia hasn't been more kinetic in preventing Kiev from utterly ruining Ukraine, is that Russia will not need to convince any rump-state Ukrainians of the proposition that all Nazis and all rabid nationalists are super-bad news for themselves. The facts and the destruction are convinving enough.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Jun 7 2023 16:43 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
What are the odds NATO enters western Ukraine as this Kiev offensive peters out?
It does not seem to be getting its due consideration.
Posted by: Talleyrand | Jun 7 2023 11:23 utc | 1