Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 22, 2023

More Weapons Go To Ukraine But What Will It Do With Those?

Ukraine's counter-offensive has failed and it has no chance of a victory in the war.

Its best possibility to still sustain for a while is to now build several new defense lines and to pull back to those. Instead it is continuing to attack on too many fronts with little gains and large losses.

Yesterday the Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation with his Security Council.

Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Council, reported on Ukrainian losses:

As of today, we have the following statistics. From June 4 to 21, we destroyed 246 tanks, including 13 Western tanks, as well as 595 armoured combat vehicles and armoured cars. Of this number, we have destroyed 152 infantry fighting vehicles, including 59 Western models, as well as 443 other armoured combat vehicles. We have destroyed 279 field artillery systems and mortars, including 48 Western systems. We have also destroyed 42 multiple launch rocket systems, 2 surface-to-air missile systems, 10 tactical fighters, 4 helicopters, 264 drones and 424 motor vehicles.

Those numbers are a bit below the sums in my spreadsheet as given by the daily report of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I believe that Patrushev's sums are probably four or five days old. Patrushev gives the number of dead Ukrainians as 13,000 along all fronts. That is again a bit below my sums and likely behind in time.

Putin then asks his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:

Vladimir Putin: I see.

Mr Shoigu, we know that the enemy is to receive additional Western equipment. What does the Defence Ministry think about threats in this connection?

Sergei Shoigu: Regarding current and planned military equipment deliveries, there are plans to supply 250 tanks, including about 120 Leopards and 31 Abrams tanks, throughout 2023. There are also 95 T-72 tanks that they have scraped together from all over the world. This is what we know about the planned deliveries.

There are plans to deliver 983 armoured combat vehicles throughout 2023. In all, 822 vehicles, the bulk of the shipment, including 740 Western models, is set to arrive during the third and fourth quarters.

In effect, we can also see that all arsenals, accumulated by the Soviet Union and countries of the former socialist bloc, have now been virtually depleted. We can say the same about former Ukrainian resources.

The intention is to deliver 273 155-mm artillery systems throughout 2023. This is more than two times less than had been delivered so far.

That sounds like a lot but Shoigu then makes this assessment:

In the context of the losses, listed by Mr Patrushev, and taking into account earlier developments, we now realise that the amount, due to be delivered throughout 2023, as well as those weapons that have already been delivered, will not seriously affect the course of hostilities. Additionally, most of the armoured vehicles and fighting vehicles belong to the previous generation, or even to an earlier generation. On the one hand, their armour is weak and ineffective, compared to modern equipment. Mr President, we do not see any threats here, all the more so as we are actively accumulating reserve equipment and service personnel.

That is good news. For the Russians. For the Ukraine military it means that it will again get as much as it has lost over the last three weeks except for artillery which is already scarce and will in future be even more so. But how long will that last if the Ukrainian army continues to attack?

Russia is still expanding its military and is creating new military units. According to Shoigu those have already receive 3,786 pieces of military hardware and are daily receiving 112 more units. I presume that to mean 'stuff that shoots or drives', i.e. cannons and armored vehicles of all kind. This is not all new stuff but also refurbished and upgraded depot equipment. But compared to what Ukraine will still get the numbers are just huge.

The Russian side now has two choices. It can go on attack, as it currently does near Kupiansk, or it can wait at the current lines until the Ukraine has thrown all that new stuff against those.

We will most likely see a mix of both. Russia may stay quiet in the south where it has good positions and attack in the north where Ukrainian militia attempt to make boarder raids on Russia. A wide security zone there would end that nonsense.

Posted by b on June 22, 2023 at 16:17 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Ukraine cannot win this war...it's that simple.

Posted by: Roy Walker | Jun 22 2023 16:25 utc | 1

Fuck, this is fireworks, this Russian weapon called the lancet is pretty menacing.

https://t.me/RVvoenkor/47806

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 22 2023 16:27 utc | 2

Keep killing Ukraine.
Otherwise we loose face again.
USA!
It rabid lunacy at this point of time.

Posted by: jpc | Jun 22 2023 16:32 utc | 3

This war is not going to stop until one stops the cash flow to the big guy. Right now he is still getting his 10%.

Posted by: robbey | Jun 22 2023 16:34 utc | 4

With improved ISR, Russia should be able to destroy a lot of the new „arrivals“ before they get to the frontline. The question is, at what level of depletion of the Ukrainian army, personell and equipment, will Russia decide its time for their counteroffensive. This offensive will have to secure all majority Russian territories and install a neutral government in Kiev. Wether NATO sends troops or not will define the scale and duration of the ongoing war.

Posted by: JohnD | Jun 22 2023 16:34 utc | 5

Gilbert Doctorow sees it far more ominously: in the face of the failure of the counter offensive, Nato will escalate and Russia in the last 24hours has obliquely warned that any higher involvement of Nato beyond existing deliveries of weapons and mercenaries will lead to a direct response from Russia on Kyiv or those countries...

Posted by: Geoffrey | Jun 22 2023 16:36 utc | 6

thanks b... good overview and summation.. appreciated..

where is the off ramp? i can't see it.. doesn't look like usa led nato is looking for one either..

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:44 utc | 7

Or maybe the so called clobberlist was lying and patrushev used a more realistic estimate.
Their most capable commander is dead and Zelansky still think he can bluff his way to victory. If only he showed some spine in April 2022 this could've been avoided

Posted by: A.z | Jun 22 2023 16:47 utc | 8

@ A.z | Jun 22 2023 16:47 utc | 7

zelensky was just following orders.. total puppet since day one... everyone must recognize this..

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:49 utc | 9

Russia attacking would spoil the momentum where Ukraine keeps throwing men at the meat grinder.
Of course Ukraine may eventually tire, when it has almost no men left, but Sun Zhu, never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake applies till then.

I think in the last phase Russia will simply announce certain targets, such as Odesa, and the remaining Ukrainian forces will simply disappear from there (though perhaps torturing and killing locals as they leave).

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jun 22 2023 16:53 utc | 10

Ukraine is a drug addict, they are completely dependent on western financial assistance. Imagine how many centuries Ukraine will pay off all these debts? I can't believe what this bunch of stupid putschists 2014 brought their country to, they turned their country into ruins and bankrupt. This is a complete disgrace.

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 22 2023 16:53 utc | 11

ot - zelensky has found a way to solve all of ukraines problems, lol..

"Zelensky bans Russian books
The Ukrainian president has signed a bill outlawing the import of Russian and Belarusian publications."

brilliant idea, lol..

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:54 utc | 12

Over the past three weeks, a public debate has been taking place in Russian newspapers concerning the use of nuclear weapons.

Original editorial proposing first strike against USA:
https://www.rt.com/russia/578042-russia-nuclear-weapons/

Reply #1 - No Don't do That
https://www.rt.com/russia/578218-experts-respond-to-call-for-atomic-strike/

Reply #2 - US Seems to want Nuclear War
https://www.rt.com/russia/578446-dmitry-trenin-sergey-karaganov/

I suspect that this debate was orchestrated by the Kremlin who asked the various participants to advocate various positions. The reason for it is they are making the case to the Russian populace that the situation is so dire that nuclear weapons are on the table. Putin wants the Russian people to be united behind him, whatever he does. So, this is a method of building public consensus, and also mentally preparing the Russian population for a possible nuclear war.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Jun 22 2023 16:55 utc | 13

The Russians will not go on the attack just yet, they have no reason to do so and time is on their side, as their voluntary contract recruitment amongst Russian males grows, with five new equipped battalions added per week according to their Defence Minister.
The Ukrainian army at this present rate of attrition goes, will lose another 40,000 men by November. The Russians will see also how much equipment is being replenished by NATO, how much has been destroyed. The death ratio is 10 to 1 and widening. The Russian casualty rate is manageable. The death ratio is also predicted to increase considerably as Ukraine loses its experienced officers and NCOs.
Russia knows since the start it’s real adversary is NATO and all planning is made on the basis of an all out conventional war with the west.
When will NATO throw in the towel ? and where is the so called “off ramp” ??
NATO actions are unpredictable unlike Russia’s.
What ever happens Russian arms industry and economy are being gradually focused towards a comprehensive war footing to take on NATO.
Meanwhile Russians soldiers get battle inoculated some like Wagner battle hardened. It’s the making of a superb military force whose units Co ordinate and work together, this has taken 17 months since this war started and which NATO will lack.
Whatever NATO decides to do at the end of the year, Russia will be fully prepared to take on whatever military might the West throws at it.
THIS ATTRITION PACE OF THE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION SUITS RUSSIA PERFECTLY

Posted by: Jaffa | Jun 22 2023 16:56 utc | 14

Regarding the public debate on the use of Nuclear Weapons I posted above...

Russia's problem throughout the Ukraine proxy war has been that they know that London and DC are the brains and powers behind everything that Ukraine is doing. But attacking decision-making centers in Ukraine has no effect on DC and London, who are the real decision-makers.

They are trying to figure out how to inflict enough pain on the bullies who created this war to make them back down and stop. But the question is how to do that.

This debate about nuclear war is the public discussion of that problem and how to solve that problem.

I suspect that they will conclude that the US Navy and NATO carrier groups are the low-hanging fruit. They present the most justifiable military target that would send the message, without creating justification for a full nuclear retaliation by DC and London.

It would behoove us to follow this public discussion in Russia quite closely because I suspect that the Kremlin has orchestrated this discussion to lead to the conclusions they want the Russian public to arrive at. The purpose of this public discussion is to get the Russian population united and on board with whatever it is the Kremlin has already decided must be done.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Jun 22 2023 17:01 utc | 15

Loved the use of word "nonsense" in the end.

Posted by: Baumanov | Jun 22 2023 17:02 utc | 16

thanks b... good overview and summation.. appreciated..

where is the off ramp? i can't see it.. doesn't look like usa led nato is looking for one either..

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:44 utc | 6

Th off ramps were only sized for Russia.
US egotistical and hubris simply couldn't fit.

Posted by: jpc | Jun 22 2023 17:05 utc | 17

NATO will continue to escalate for the next few years. Until there is no money left.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 17:08 utc | 18

Ukraine can do nothing but bleed
NATO can do nothing but send weapons

Russia can eradicate everything coming its way

Objectively and as a side matter it needs a land bridge to Kaliningrad available once Poland enters Ukraine

It needs to neutralise Romania by regime change and removal of US puppets

Those two things could change perspectives

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 17:09 utc | 19

Daniel Davis keeps peddling his claims in places like "The National Desk" and Andrew Napolitano's podcast. He seems to be part of the right wing extremist movement in the US that has embraced Putin against Ukraine.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 22 2023 17:15 utc | 20

I posted my long reply to Paul Damascene at the end of the previous thread here for those interested in my appraisal. Also, Simplicius posted a new sitrep late yesterday that has some key information. I assume most barflies now know where to find his material.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 17:16 utc | 21

@ jpc | Jun 22 2023 17:05 utc | 16

i guess that is like looking for a max 737 off ramp on an l.a. express, lol... ain't gonna happen!

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 17:20 utc | 22

Posted by: Crazy chump | Jun 22 2023 16:53 utc | 10
If only bankruptcy was an option under international law. Unfortunately it is not so the debt will just keep growing even after all state assets have been stripped just to cover a bit of the interest. They will never be able to pay it off. It will be a permanent tax paid to the west for the privilege of fighting a war on the behalf of the western ruling class.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 22 2023 17:20 utc | 23

The pattern in the USA military industrial complex and NATO, they know nothing but escalation, war is the state, perpetual warfare is profitable. Over the last few decades the crimes of the US/EU/NATO empire of making war for the purpose of more war is well documented. History will not be kind to the USA. The lack of western leadership in diplomacy in favour of economic blackmail, deceit in negotiations for peace and militarism has put the USA at serious risk. Criminal syndicates have formed inside the US government such as the CIA, NSA, FBI, along with other government institutions that created the current perpetual warfare state. The agency of the average citizen has been derailed by effective media control. There is no peace movement, however there is a chance that a US Presidential election would change the outcome of world history, very unlikely, yet possible. I'm no gambler with this matter of war and politic, I will wait and see. I believe Russia will crush the Ukraine on cold winters day, the T90 tanks will roll into Kiev eventually. An escalation of concern might be a NATO attempt to impose a full blockade of Kaliningrad in an attempt to gain a position at the negotiating table? I doubt NATO and the EU can hold together as an institutions with so many differences, bankrupt governments will collapse and peace will happen despite their attempts to perpetuate war across the planet.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Jun 22 2023 17:22 utc | 24

Europe has been turned into a dependent pacified colony of the US.

German industry has been seriously weakened and its gas supply blown up by US/NATO.

Key European industries are moving either to US or less so to China.

The European welfare state is being dismantled.

Europe is now forced to buy practically all its weaponry from the US and is now a dependent colony. It is also energy dependent on the US at inflated prices.

Europe is being turned into uber-neocon territory and serfdom for its citizens.

Recession, rampant inflation which will stay high, and a long depression awaits Europe. Ukraine spelt large in other words - a coup - and not a shot fired by the Euro quislings.

Europe is basically fu€ked.

So who gives a fu€k about Ukraine. Time to cut off the head of this snake.

.....

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 17:24 utc | 25

Judging by recent TG reports from Svatovo - Kupyansk, the AFU front there are relatively weak. Also in Krasnoliman front, the troops that surrendered said they were supposedly recently conscripted from western Ukraine.

AFU must halt in Zaporozhye and rebalance or shuffle forces to contain any RF advance elsewhere, or they will keep attacking. But much of the offensive power has degraded already.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 17:39 utc | 26

@incon1969

"The extreme rightwing movement"...

That is a fiction. The U.S is a broken nation, being run by literal, actual psychopaths. They are mass murdering monsters, and the 'media' in the U.S. is pure unadulterated, propaganda saturated garbage...
Just sayin'

Posted by: Robert Hope | Jun 22 2023 17:39 utc | 27

The USA is crazy enough that they think they can win or at least destroy Europe in the process.

Posted by: Kaiama | Jun 22 2023 17:44 utc | 28

@ Rhinoskerous | Jun 22 2023 17:01 utc | 14

I agree, nuking all the Western carrier groups at sea (and thus avoiding collateral damage) would be a huge but assymetrical escalation. The West would probably destroy all of Russia's offshore military assets in return, but that would be like taking a Bishop in exchange for a Queen.

But once anyone nukes a city or land-based target I think that would trigger armageddon.

Posted by: Observer | Jun 22 2023 17:52 utc | 29

There are things that are irrelevant, pure noise. Like the “general mobilization” announced in the Kiev region. When has the Ukrainian mobilization military serfdom not been “general” (other than on paper)?

All the Kiev regime is doing is intensifying the same efforts to conscript that they have been making since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This falls in line with the mandate to refuse hospitalization—except with the military recruitment office’s permission—for military-aged men in Ivano-Frankovsk. Likewise, the derogation of the military summons requirement is merely the evolution of the earlier attempt to legalize the issuance of summons via electronic government services.

What will the “general mobilization” change? Once again, nothing. The powerless will continue being snatched on the street—even if some of them fight back (that will stop once the “recruitment officers” start shooting)—and the powerful and wealthy will continue paying bribes to stay out of the meat grinder.

Military serfdom was already the law—not just a de facto regime—in Ukraine; it has just become slightly more entrenched.

Of only note is the “mobilization of automobile transport” for use by the military. But even that has been a common practice throughout, if often in the grey area.

Does this signal some catastrophic losses that Ukraine now has to overcome? Not really. The losses were expected and welcomed. For NATO and Zelensky’s regime, a Leopard is worth at least the male population of an average small town in the central and eastern former Ukraine (and, increasingly, as the Ukro-Polish union glitters on the horizon, of its western part as well—no one wants Nazi Banderites in their backyard, definitely not the Poles).

As Ksyushka Sobchak would say, “the show mast go on.” And so must the mobilization. The only way to stop all this is to take Kiev.

So that’s that. A non-issue.

@Slavyangrad

The issue is in boldened. Poland union is coming and Poles don't want the banderists in their backyard, so it's ok to throw the wannabe aryans to the grinder. And Nato/Zelensky values one Leopard based on the male population of a small town in central Ukraine. That by the way also explains only 13 western tanks destroyed. After the first or second wave got dismantled along with the Leopards, the rest of the Leopards were immediately pulled off the front line.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 17:52 utc | 30

What will fall down first: US Dollar or European economy?

Posted by: John V Doe | Jun 22 2023 17:58 utc | 31

The Ukrainian attack on the Chongar bridge is incorrectly being blamed on storm shadow missiles according to Sputnik. It was carried out with HIMARS type shells and the damage is very similar to that we saw when Ukraine targeted the Dnipr bridge in Kherson. Storm shadows will likely be used trying to attack more significant targets within Crimea proper.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 22 2023 18:03 utc | 32

By now, Ukraine is basically over-trained by NATO. NATO only fights emerging nations. They still lose, but they avoid getting massacred because of their superior technology. Now they are facing Russian combined arms warfare, so that does not apply.

Posted by: paperlesstiger | Jun 22 2023 18:06 utc | 33

Attacking the surveillance drones over the Black sea would be a more reasonable escalation than attacking Navy shipping. Attacking them over Romanian or Moldovan airspace would be the next step.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 34

@Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 17:24 utc | 24

The USA are not anymore an industrial power, they can only rely on European, Japanese, Korean etc. real economies.

For the period January-April 2023, the USA-EU trade balance is at -62.7 billion dollars, USA-Japan -23,3, USA-S. Korea -15.4. That is a lot and it is sustainable only if dedollarization does not happen.

Posted by: SG | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 35

Posted by: robbey | Jun 22 2023 16:34 utc | 4

"This war is not going to stop until one stops the cash flow to the big guy. Right now he is still getting his 10%."

I agree, but this iis not only the big guy. There is a lot of big guys. Every body of the Washington politician, every european politician that feel they are interesting and important can rub shoulders with each other, Nato's top brass's, and the rest of the elite.

The ukranian guys are also gonna cash in. The oligarcs of Ukraina is interested in keeping the well of money flowing. The Ukranian MOD bougth food for their troops, 5 timees more expensive than the normal price for Ukranians.

It is strange that everybody talk's as it's the politicians, including Biden and his staff that call's the shots. How has the prices on guns, ammo, equipment increased during this war? 3 fold- 5 fold or even 10 fold? It is not Biden it's the MIC. Onee year after the irresponsible Trump stopped the Afgan adventure, they prepared the attack on Donbass.

Nobody cares for the dead and mutilated Ukranians.

Except civilians in every western country that is been told that they have to endure hardship to save democracy, freedom and LTBGQ rigths in Ukraine.

This is insane, but is the MIC that should be hanged. JFK and his brother tried to stop them, from there everything went downhill. It's not Biden, Blinken, Nuland, Stoltenberg, they are just enablers.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 36

John V Doe@30
Would 'dollarising' the EU possibly postpone the evil moment? Getting rid of the euro* and adopting the dollar, I mean. After all Europe is hardly sovereign.
*And maybe sterling too?

Posted by: bevin | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 37

@Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 17:09 utc | 18

These are countries where you can't get regime change, US controls everything. Political opponents (less slave) are jailed, protesters are beaten. You can stay in jail for years without trial, a simple bribe to a judge is enough. US embassy makes public demands on laws or supports some candidates during elections, no one dares to do anything else. So if you try regime change in a country like that, you get martial law next day and US really takes control since they control the army. No civilian can fight a tank. And US soldiers are above the law in many nato countries in East, if not all of them. No arrest, no trial allowed. Poland just gifted Maia Moldova a rather large batch of weapons for use against protesters. She has 70-80% of population against joining nato.

Posted by: rk | Jun 22 2023 18:09 utc | 38

@ Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2023 17:09 utc | 18
-> karloff1 IMO

Those two things could change perspectives

Yes. Also.
But, I think that decoasting Ukraine, as in taking the whole Odesa Oblast and occupying it all to Izmail, bridging Transnistria is an ultimate checkmate ninja move. This is the only big offensive RF must do.
It ends everything. Moves NATO and ISR away from the Black Sea, puts RF on super-important gate to Balkans and Southern Europe, cuts Polish dreams of a two seas empire, bridgeheads via Transnistria a spike, straight into the heart of Central-Eastern Europe. 300 km to Kiev and a Polish border is a safe distance to cover everything that is left from Ukraine.

Total supremacy and a position to take over whatever RF region wants and needs without the fight. NATO capitulates in shame. Peace.
Everything else is just - by the way.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 18:10 utc | 39

Attacking the surveillance drones over the Black sea would be a more reasonable escalation
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 34

They won't do it, brown pants
tass.com/politics/1636621

Posted by: rk | Jun 22 2023 18:15 utc | 40

All,

Perhaps this obvious thought has been addressed, but here goes:

What Ace does Zelensky have up his sleeve on the Bidens?

It would be easy to imagine one that keeps the U.S. giving up $billions, weapons, intelligence support, and equipment keeping the (compromised) Biden regime in office, or the smoking gun that removes them all from office.

Posted by: Brigette | Jun 22 2023 18:18 utc | 41

Wow, I clicked over to Alexander Mercouris youtube channel just now and what pops up is a link to a change dot org petition to ban him from youtube.

The desperation in the Wretched City is so think you can cut it with a knife.

Posted by: chunga | Jun 22 2023 18:21 utc | 42

Dollar or Euro ?

Financial Journalist thinks it will be the English Pound;

The New Stooge
The UK is going to be the first casualty of the coming sovereign debt/inflation volatility crisis. Said another way, whatever inflation volatility is coming to the U.S., it’s coming to the U.K. first…….

https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/p/the-new-stooge

Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 18:23 utc | 43

@SG | Jun 22 2023 18:08 utc | 35

Thanks for reply. V useful.

Quite a bit of this US-EU trade balance is made up of US transnationals - not sure how much and for small Ireland it is huge and US private equity is buying up the UK and looking greedily at 'good value' across the EU as its economy struggles.

De-dollarization will take time - and quite a lot of time. In the interim the Dollar will dominate all the colonies - the $ has basically swallowed the €.

Tough being a reasonably informed European at the mo - as the 'public sphere' is silenced and largely powerless.

This is disastrous for Europe.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 18:26 utc | 44

@ rk | Jun 22 2023 18:15 utc | 40

They won't do it, brown pants
tass.com/politics/1636621

That statement from Rybakov, is about the same, as a NATO's claim that it is not part of the conflict.
Security is a stretchable idea, open for an interpretation.
Maybe they feel secure with NATO planes 200 km away from Snt.Pet'Burg? Or having drones moved 150 km more South?

I have a feeling that there is lots of leg-kicking under the table and out of our scope of knowledge.


Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 18:28 utc | 45

What will they do with the weapons that they receive?

Use them to prevent an insurgency.

That would be my guess: the next and obvious move in Ukraine is the real life version of the phony colour revolution that was the Maidan. Life for the average Ukrainian must be getting pretty unbearable now, and being ruled by Nazis must be very irritating.

It might be, as MK Bhadrakumar-https://www.indianpunchline.com/- seems to think, that the next move in the war will come from behind the lines in the form of an uprising. Nothing would be more symnetrical than riots in Kiev with observers from the Kremlin handing out home baked snacks and talking aloud about the shape of the next government.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 22 2023 18:28 utc | 46

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:54 utc | 11

- zelensky has found a way to solve all of ukraines problems, lol..

"Zelensky bans Russian books : The Ukrainian president has signed a bill outlawing the import of Russian and Belarusian publications. Posted by: brilliant idea, lol.. "

Yes it is. Remove, destroy everything russian, streetnames, change date of christmas, change timezone, destroy the church, scrap the ukranian alphabet, replacet it with the Latin, change the laws, what they teach their kids and students, take away everything russian.

This way you are creating hatered that is very difficult to reverse and everything the new administration will change will spur protests, probably violent.

The west will not support a new adminitration with money if anything is backtracked.

Permanent hell. This is cultural genocide.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 22 2023 18:33 utc | 47

Perhaps this will be perceived as concern trolling, but taking the long view to after this part of the conflict has ended, at least in terms of organized Ukrainian military activities to try retaking lost territory, what does this massive military mobilization mean for the future of the Russian economy? Do they stay on a near-permanent war footing? Does the Russian government maintain a wartime economy and if so, what does that do for their ability to engage in other economic and non-war related manufacturing, i.e., making things other than weapons that they can export to the RotW? I feel like we're right back in the Cold War once this SMO is done. Does the US and its EU lapdogs in NATO dramatically increase "defense" manufacturing and begin to manage their economies like Japan did (in many ways behind the scenes) up until the 80s or 90s (despite not being at war) as wartime economies? Does the EU wake up and begin purchasing Russian oil and gas above the table again? So many unknowns at this point and nothing looks good for anyone except weapons makers.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 22 2023 18:36 utc | 48

Why does b cite Russian MoD figures as fact? I've noticed he has been doing this for a very long time.

Posted by: Grey Zone Chronicle | Jun 22 2023 18:39 utc | 49

Why ?

Because the MOD has shown itself over time to be a credible source

That’s why

Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 18:40 utc | 50

Neutral Ireland! Today ..

'No to NATO' protesters interrupt Tánaiste at International Security Forum [40 secs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toHN1pGKXcA

NATO protestors interrupt Tánaiste Micheál Martin at Government forum on neutrality [5 mins]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsLrri9gPc0

And so it goes ...

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 18:44 utc | 51

whirlX | Jun 22 2023 18:10 utc | 39--

Several months ago I when I began commenting at Simplicius's site, I suggested an offensive directed at Odessa which was before the massive degradation of Ukie AD, its artillery and mobile reserves. The issue of penetrating mine belts was later raised which is a problem for all sides. Then there's the problem of bridging rivers under fire. The use of airmobile assets jumps over both issues and Ukie AD is degraded to the point where such an operation would face little resistance from that source. Operations in the deep rear historically create massive havoc. And the assets Russia has to employ are massive--a full army with 5 divisions with its own organic APCs and artillery, plus the fire support from attack helos. There's zero Ukie CAS to worry about, and being in the deep rear, very little worry about artillery or mine belts. However, the airheads would still need to be linked by ground forces a la Operation Market Garden which I gamed many times from both sides. The idea of assaulting the same area of concern at the ZNPP IMO makes excellent sense as it removes the possibility of that objective being attained by the Ukies no matter how unlikely that appears to be.

Given the current disposition of Ukie forces, the current push that's taking shape at Kharkov makes great sense as an initial move in such a two pronged plan as it will attract Ukie reserves from the Southern sectors that are quieter and already depleted from the failed offensive. The threat from the Kharkov direction was well described by Simplicius and it could split into two directions, one West toward Poltava, and the other South-Southeast toward Kramatorsk to envelop the forces there. IMO, Russia has the assets to accomplish both while still having a healthy reserve. We read the Security Council's report on the condition of the Ukie forces and they have nothing to seriously counter either thrust. What's unknown is NATO's reaction. As I wrote, I don't see anything NATO can do to alter anything in Ukraine even if it were to go all-in, which it's not even ready to do currently. I explained how I see the EU/NATO political situation, and I highly doubt any europolitico would want to see nukes employed given the consequences.

I don't have much to add. It's all hypothetical except for the current push in the Kharkov region and the utter failure of the Ukie offensive that will continue to go nowhere but the grave and scrapyard.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 18:47 utc | 52

Money isn't the problem. Lots of money can be found to send to Ukraine, but there is only a finite amount of munitions and equipment. Unless the entire west is artfully lying about their stocks and industrial base, the end of munitions is in site. I assume that the US isn't rapidly building plants to increase production of munitions and equipment because we would almost certainly be hearing all about it as a great Biden win and economic stimulus. The last public update was that the US should be producing 20,000 artillery rounds/month by now. That's not enough. All available information suggests that Europe is in worse shape than the US.

The US of course has to keep lots on hand for potential conflicts as well as training, so its total stocks aren't the same as available stocks. I strongly suspect that we'll start hearing more aid going in dollars rather than actual material and those dollars will be earmarked for contracts to produce munitions and equipment that doesn't exist yet.

The numbers are always presented in their best light. It appears that the US has given close to 2,000,000 shells since the beginning of the conflict. One million plus is recorded in the Congressional record but there were also 500,000 round withdrawals from forward stocks in Israel and S. Korea. But that only ends up being ~5,500 shells per day over a year. Europe's 1M shells/year advertised goal is obviously half that. Artillery ammunition should be the easiest to have in stock and ramp up manufacturing. Compared to making new artillery systems or similar, shells are simple. The timeline for running out of available supplies is debatable and unknowable, but there's an end to that timeline unless the west drastically ramps up production in short order. There is no evidence that it has done so to date.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 22 2023 18:52 utc | 53

Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 22 2023 18:36 utc | 48--

I highly suggest you read Putin's speech at the SPIEF where he informs all what Russia is going to do economically and how.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 18:52 utc | 54

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 22 2023 18:36 utc | 48

EU will not do anything other than stymie their social welfare budgets, more recently financial aid to developing countries like Africa, and domestic services, and send the money to US weapon manufacturers as new contracts.

EU can produce artillery shells (even that seems to be having serious problems with scaling due to the killed-off fertilizer industry and consumption), rifles, some sort of AFVs. But EU can only do it on very small scale, insignificant in the magnitude of SMO.

USA is the only real arms player in Nato that can make a meaningful difference in SMO. But US companies want long term contracts from Congress, who may not be committed to cough the dough just for Ukraine, whose prospects are on, mildly put, shaky grounds. And US wants actual payments for their weapons. Ukraine cannot realistically pay, so they will sell these weapons to EU vassals first, who may give some of them to Ukraine. But the situation for Nato's devastated arsenals isn't going to change potentially in a decade.

Ukraine is finished, because US will prioritize arming its still intact vassals over Ukraine from its significantly diminished economic base compared to 1942. They could prioritize Ukraine but they would have to pay all the bills themselves, and that would weaken the US financial position much faster.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 18:52 utc | 55

Fast & Factual LIVE: Kremlin Says Zelensky Is Lying About Plans to Attack Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJxDsdrfMNk

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 19:00 utc | 56

Karlof,

If you wish to study modern air assault capturing a real city - the 173rd’s capture of Ebil-Kirkuk-Tikret in 2003 would be a good place to start;


Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 19:01 utc | 57

(Dot) mil report on the 173rd’s true feat of arms all 124 pages

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1084521.pdf

Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2023 19:03 utc | 58

I'm beginning to agree with Prigozhin. Soigu is not in danger from 800 tanks - the troops are. I think his statement was actually political, that it did not threaten Russia (of course) so they would have to mobilize further or use nukes, over tanks and amour. He didn't mention f16s or long range missiles. But he sounds too weak for this kind of war of attrition. Go after the tanks and armored vehicles flown into Lviv or Kiev even if they have to take out bridges and the airport and all the Nato planes and trains bringing stuff in. Soigu needs to ask himself what he needs to do to win the war.

Posted by: JimG | Jun 22 2023 19:04 utc | 59

@ Paul from Norway | Jun 22 2023 18:33 utc | 47

Nicly noticed.
Best of all, all those Eastern (rabidly anti-Russian) states that were dwelling under the Warsaw Pact Block, aka Iron Curtain, have inflicted pains on themselves and their population, as those have never been denazified properly. The whole post-war Soviet bureaucracy in liberated countries, previously in Nazi hands, was re-schooled quickly and continued working, as they were needed to run the new countries, and such way of thinking was not ruled by an ideology, but by a need.
Stuff was mainly run and reinforced by local people belonging to Communist Party of certain state.
Soviet Ukrainians did 'bad' things to Ukrainians, Polish Soviets to Polish folk etc.
This guilt is now thrown at RF, as a cause of all the Russian as being evil and bad.
Zelensky is an idiot, thinking that he can erase the history and a heritage.
He is not going to get to write it.

Soviet Block was a far of an exclusive Ethnic Russian occupation, compared to how the USA holds EU in its deadly grip, ever since, nowadays even more.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 19:04 utc | 60

Posted by: bevin | Jun 22 2023 18:28 utc | 46

something was wrong with link you provided to MK Bhadrakumar-https://www.indianpunchline.com/-

Here is the correct one: https://www.indianpunchline.com/

Thanks for trying

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jun 22 2023 19:05 utc | 61

Fast & Factual LIVE: Kremlin Says Zelensky Is Lying About Plans to Attack Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJxDsdrfMNk

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 19:00 utc | 56

Oh, it will be attacked, alright. By Ukraine.

This is a serious matter and Russia needs to pay more attention to this.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Jun 22 2023 19:08 utc | 62

Posted by: bevin | Jun 22 2023 18:28 utc | 46

From the article you linked which is at:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-wont-let-ukraine-be-bleeding-wound/

Putin ridiculed the West’s grandiose talk about matching Russia’s vastly superior defence industrial capacity. He said: “And when they say they will start producing this or that: well, please go ahead. Things are not so simple during a recession… They are not as decisive as we are here in Russia. There is no passion there, these are fading nations; that’s the whole problem. But we have it. We will fight for our interests, and we will achieve our goals.”

Have emboldened the Money Shot. That's IT in a nutshell. The Hegemonic Axis is comprised of 'fading nations.' As long as MAD can be assuredly avoided, the outcome is as certain as night follows day, for what logistics are to armies economics and politico-social culture are to nations.

The big questions are about what happens after.
But such things take time.
And many of us might go through some harrowing passages ourselves before this is all over...

Americans especially are used to bad stuff happening way over there somewhere vaguely tuned into on a small screen playing in the background. Things will get closer to home soon, I trow. Riots, food shortages, financial panics, pandemics...
so many things on the menu, must be hard for 'them' to choose...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 22 2023 19:13 utc | 63

Between Russia improving its satellite coverage of Ukraine, including the personnel and the AI to interpret the ever growing wealth of data, the erosion of Ukraine's air defense, the improvements in Russia's electronic warfare, including eavesdropping, the degradation of Ukraine's communications infrastructure, and the degradation of the ability of Ukraine to safely transport equipment to the front lines, the dribs and drabs of Western equipment that is scheduled to be sent appear to me to be unlikely to do more than to slow the curve of the rate Ukraine's forces decline in being able to provide their infantry with a full range of support. The Russian advantage in aviation is already the elephant/bear in the room.

But boy oh boy there must be a lot of people in the West's MIC who are dancing in glee over how the further shipments of equipment to Ukraine guarantees ever larger allocations of funding to buying new equipment, and research and development of new weapons and vehicles.

Given how the MIC operates, everyone in Congress will benefit, even those who are the most ardently anti-war with their rhetoric. As long as the MIC's money reaches the DNC and the RNC, then "a rising tide lifts all boats", and all incumbents get a taste of the MIC's largesse.

And of course since the MIC is part of the corporate establishment, which owns or controls the media, all the good little boys and girls in Congress get lots of free air time, and coverage in print, to help guarantee their re-election.

Eisenhower and General Butler both had it right. The MIC is a racket.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2023 19:16 utc | 64

At what point does Russia take out the American forces in Syria? Or give Syria the means to do it themselves. Close a 1,000 coffins would definitely cause some soul searching in the USA. And even the MSM would have to acknowledge that those troops are there illegally when Tucker/RFK/Republicans in the house bring it up.

Posted by: team10tim | Jun 22 2023 19:18 utc | 65

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 16:49 utc | 8

:) Not everyone can recognize...
This explains our world.

He had his "advice".
https://youtu.be/U2lo4ffher4

Posted by: 600w | Jun 22 2023 19:19 utc | 66

Posted by: Brigette | Jun 22 2023 18:18 utc | 41
Well given that Ukraine replaced Laos as the child sex trafficking capital of the world in 2015 and Biden's creepy behavior towards little girls my bet is they got pictures of his times in Kiev as viceroy. That and all the bribes he took. But just my guess but nothing like pictures/video of him raping little girls to make this level of irrational actions possible.

Posted by: badjoke | Jun 22 2023 19:19 utc | 67

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 18:47 utc | 52

I don't have much to add. It's all hypothetical except for the current push in the Kharkov region and the utter failure of the Ukie offensive that will continue to go nowhere but the grave and scrapyard.

==========================

As long as NATO keeps pushing men and materiel their way the demilitarization continues apace at relatively little risk for the RF. When this is over, the West will have nothing other than a nightmarish ballistic nuclear ordinance and useless aircraft carriers good only for terrorizing small states, many of whom will soon be buddying up to BRICS.

Can RF just wait once NATO runs out of attack momentum along their front? Or will they feel obliged to push on lest the enemy use the pause for mustering fresh reserves? Will the West ever change view and consider no longer pushing unending belligerence?

My guess is that the fat lady will only stop singing after financial crashes and other domestic turmoil leaves the West ripe for (Reset) Regime Change. But that is pure speculation of course.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 22 2023 19:22 utc | 68

Ukraine Watch Telegram Channel Reports....
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/4581
Following the persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the confiscation of property and the constant provocation of clergy and parishioners, Ukraine has launched its most brutal 'hunt' for Orthodox believers.

In the last month alone, scores of priests and pilgrims have been arrested, detained on the streets or during services and handed over to the Security Service of Ukraine.

Zelensky, as the guarantor of the Constitution of Ukraine, has not only violated it, but has also allowed the rights of the country's citizens to be violated by hounding them by the Security Service of Ukraine and the media in order to find traces of 'anti-Ukrainian activity'.

By portraying believers as criminals, the Ukrainian authorities have failed to notice that they themselves have become an organised criminal group, using weapons and punitive battalions against unarmed people.

On 19 June, for example, Ukrainian border guards detained an Orthodox priest at the entrance to Kiev and handed him over to the Ukrainian Security Service. The reason was to check his smartphone, where they found material about how in 2015 he had called on Ukrainians to stop fighting in order to end the fratricidal war, citing the commandment "Thou shalt not kill".

For the same reason, a woman, who turned out to be a pilgrim from the Kievo-Pecherskaya Lavra, returning from the Dnipropetrovsk region, was detained at the entrance to the capital. Upon inspection, the woman was found to be carrying donations in the form of foreign currency and Russian rubles. It was the roubles that made the inspectors suspicious.

All these actions are actively reported in the Ukrainian media, which "attribute" to the Orthodox all sorts of mythical links with Moscow.

The European Union, which is so active in crying out about the violation of the rights of homosexuals, Nazis and other radical movements, has completely stopped noticing how the rights of decent and peaceful people are being violated who, unlike the same EU, are only asking people to come to their senses and stop killing each other.

This is the constitution that the Western coalition is proposing to disobedient countries to imprison believers for asking them to stop war and pray for peace.

In the G-7 religion is most probably passe'

But not in the Orthodox world...

I can't think of a better way to create a resistance.... Partisans....

This in a world where everyone carries a phone that takes photos, geo-locates them, and transmits the co-ordinates in real time...

To the GRU???

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 22 2023 19:35 utc | 69

General mobilization announced in the capital of Ukraine

In the Obolonsky district of Kyiv, a general mobilization has been announced. This was reported by the Ukrainian edition of "Strana".

According to the published document, within ten days it is necessary to appear at the military registration and enlistment office. The requirement applies to all persons liable for military service who have not previously received personal summonses or mobilization orders.

"It is ordered to continue the mobilization of human and transport resources in the volumes determined by the plan on the territory of the Obolonsky district of Kyiv," the document says.

It is noteworthy that at the same time, the Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Anna Malyar, commenting on the failure of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced the “leveling of the front”. She said this akin to her ideological predecessors from Germany, who masked the retreat of the Wehrmacht with this phrase.

Earlier, general mobilization was also announced in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.

Posted by: Fives | Jun 22 2023 19:37 utc | 70

On the German/French culture channel ARTE there is currently a report about Polish fishermen. They are suffering because they lack cheap labor from Ukraine and the EU and the regime in Warsaw dictate absurd catch quotas for fish. One fishermen's family has built a second livelihood with money from the Polish government. They have converted their house into a small hotel and are now hosting Ukrainian refugees. The Polish boss hypocritically tells the camera that they have to help these poor people who lost their homeland and came to Poland with nothing. In reality, the Polish fishermen's family is enriching itself at the expense of the Ukrainians. The fisherman's wife says openly in the film that they can continue fishing only with the pension, the hotel.

But the top of the film was a Ukrainian mother who fled with her small children and was accommodated in the boarding house. She seriously claims in the film that her child started to stutter after fleeing from Ukraine! It can no longer speak properly and above all it can no longer pronounce the letter R! So a blatant shit they tell us, the letter R. !!! Wonder if their child will soon have problems with the letter Z too. I do not believe it, holy shit. Culture channel!

Posted by: Shoplifter | Jun 22 2023 19:39 utc | 71

Interesting development:

A resolution by us senators that says destruction of any nuclear facility that spreads radioactivity in a nato country will be considered an attack on that nato country.

Balls in your court zelensky, blow up a nuke plant get nato to fight your war.

Seems like a fait d'accompli but it's such a cowardly setup I'm sure the War God will curse anyone that uses it.

Just declare on war on russia, and open that second front in Siberia already.
Or more likely a blitz straight into Moscow. That would be quite the thing
Lol, unbelievable.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 22 2023 19:47 utc | 72

@ karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 18:47 utc | 52

Thanx for your strategos. Highly interesting, and well put.

Several months ago I when I began commenting at Simplicius's site, I suggested an offensive directed at Odessa which was before the massive degradation of Ukie AD, its artillery and mobile reserves. The issue of penetrating mine belts was later raised which is a problem for all sides. Then there's the problem of bridging rivers under fire.

Yes, that can also incorporate naval attack/blockade and even landing groups, risky, but not impossible. And crossing Dniepr is not a rocket science - it has been done before in '44, 45' and every other war there. Also naval landing.
But overall force must come from the North to Odesa, not East and not South. Those directions are used mostly for pinning Ukrainian army.
Also Odesa Oblast is not just the city, but a flat-wet road to Romanian Black Sea border, and Transnistria, too.

The use of airmobile assets jumps over both issues and Ukie AD is degraded to the point where such an operation would face little resistance from that source. Operations in the deep rear historically create massive havoc. And the assets Russia has to employ are massive--a full army with 5 divisions with its own organic APCs and artillery, plus the fire support from attack helos.

With unlimited air supremacy, and heavy air to ground support it could be doable with less soldiers then anticipated. Say 80.000? But NATO monitors all that with numerous assets. So removal of those first is necessary. Until then, no paras there.
If ever RF feels arguably insecure, it will take down those assets claiming security, not seeking a confrontation with NATO etc. blah Western style.
In the mean time, under the table, I see lots of bruises on Western legs, but no confrontation for some time to come.
Unless someone does something really, really stupid and without any reasoning behind.

Thanks for a strategic inspiration, much obliged.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 19:51 utc | 73

@ Paul from Norway | Jun 22 2023 18:33 utc | 47

i agree... the usa-nato seem to be following grahams viewpoint - kill as many russians as possible.. what they don't say is use the ukraine slavs to do it too... these folks are insane..

Posted by: james | Jun 22 2023 19:53 utc | 74

Apparently no one likes my solution to ending the Ukraine war. (Surrender ultimatum, 3 days to evacuate, then conventional destruction of Lviv, then select next Galacian city, repeat.) Too forceful or something I guess.

Here's something a bit cleaner, that should also bring the war to a rapid close. Ukraine keeps going only with the full financial support of the West. What if Russia were to interdict all electronic funds transfer (EFT) to/from Ukraine? And blow up any armored cars or vehicles carry cash? How long before the Ukraine elites would surrender? I think this could end the war quickly, with relatively little physical damage.

Posted by: spindz | Jun 22 2023 19:53 utc | 75

@ Neofeudalfuture | Jun 22 2023 19:47 utc | 72

Maybe they’re anticipating their proxy destroying ZNPP and want to try to dissuade Russia from finally retaliating directly against the sponsors.

So what do they know?

Posted by: natokraine | Jun 22 2023 19:57 utc | 76

Bent propellers

Posted by: T S | Jun 22 2023 19:59 utc | 77

And so it goes ...

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 22 2023 18:44 utc |

Martin is a pathetic creature.

Posted by: jpc | Jun 22 2023 20:05 utc | 78

In effect, we can also see that all arsenals, accumulated by the Soviet Union and countries of the former socialist bloc, have now been virtually depleted. We can say the same about former Ukrainian resources.
- Shoigu

Well, I said from the beginning that the SMO is also to demilitarise the EU/NATO and other unfriendlies first of the former Soviet arsenal, then to prove that the super-duper NATO arsenal is useless against the Russian forces. It is also to prove to the NATO that it is powerless against Russia now, and in the future.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2023 20:08 utc | 79

A resolution by us senators that says destruction of any nuclear facility that spreads radioactivity in a nato country will be considered an attack on that nato country.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 22 2023 19:47 utc | 72

Zelensky should forget about ZNPP. Just melt down Rivne and Khmelnitsky NPPs...

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 20:10 utc | 80

Gilbert Doctorow sees it far more ominously...blah, blah

Posted by: Geoffrey | Jun 22 2023 16:36 utc | 5
--------

He is an American Jew, who lives in Brussels. He appears to have had a grandfather, who had fought in the white Russian forces, a century or so ago. Other than that his 'only' connection to anything Russian his wife.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2023 20:12 utc | 81

Nuclear war chatterboxes are insane!

https://thebulletin.org/2015/02/what-would-happen-if-an-800-kiloton-nuclear-warhead-detonated-above-midtown-manhattan/

By Steven Star, Lynn Eden, Theodore A. Postol | February 25, 2015

Posted by: Drapetomaniac | Jun 22 2023 20:15 utc | 82

@Posted by: Fives | Jun 22 2023 19:37 utc | 70

Earlier, general mobilization was also announced in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.

They are down to using up all the true Bandera believers in the West now it seems, which means that they are getting close to exhausting their reserves of military-age men. The losses, killed, wounded, missing and POW, in the current offensives, plus previously around Bakhmut, must be absolutely horrific.

When they start mobilizing women in significant numbers we will know that we are close to the end of Ukraine's cannon fodder resources. Then we will see what NATO does, probably nothing and a walking away while memory-holing the whole thing and moving onto Taiwan.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2023 20:18 utc | 83

NATO is nothing!
The only fighting force it has today is a proxy one, the Ukrainian army. When push comes to shove, you'd see many NATO countries backpedalling. Not even Poland.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2023 20:19 utc | 84

Ukraine burning books puts it ever closer to being the dystopia envisioned in Equilibrium. Instead of Prozium, injecting Copium is what's mandatory. ;)

Speech by the Leader-Father. The world after the third World War. Equilibrium

https://youtu.be/MpYyhHsEffA

Kurt Wimmer's next film after that suffered from budgeting woes, afaik he was dependent on iffy Pacific Rim sourcing, but he was ahead of the curve with Ultraviolet in predicting the totalitarianism following a virus outbreak, and the sketchy safety protocols in sketchy government funded experimental labs.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2023 20:20 utc | 85

@ Neofeudalfuture | Jun 22 2023 19:47 utc | 72

Yes.
So, a US Senatoriat dictates to NATO without any further discussion on that, amongst the member-states? Nice authoritarian legislative they have there.

It goes sumtin' like this:

RF holds the NPP. Everyone knows that.

Mindscrew 1 - Russians mined Ukrainian reactor! - blare that everywhere.
Start shelling reactor - accuse RF of a provocation. Possible slight leak, all eyes on weatherman. Follow, follow. Cry Wolf. See what happens.
Mindscrew 2 - give back NPP or we will destroy it. See what happens.

Nobody cares about holy Article 5 or any other, really.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 20:25 utc | 86

De-dollarization is a bunch of streams becoming a river.
Never, ever underestimate Biden's talent of farking things up.
Bitcoin to $30,000 USD now, from a low of 17,000 at the beginning of 2023. Dollar index 1 year ago 1.13, today 1.02.
By not using the U.S. dollar in transactions offshore, demand falls, so does the purchasing power of the U.S.D.
Don't be surprised to see Weimar conditions as Domestic U.S. deficits, trade deficits and endless war breaks the buck.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 22 2023 20:26 utc | 87

Imo the clock is ticking down rapidly, like one of those runaway bomb timers in an action film, for Ukraine to engineer a false flag demolition of this or that. Even the MSM is now conceding that Russia is on a roll as Ukraine's long awaited counter-attack has so far been a miserable failure, one suffering unsustainable casualties and unsustainable losses of equipment.

I don't think the powers that be in the West see it as doable at the moment to sell the idea that Russia decided that now was the time to overturn the chessboard. I don't think the West would approve of, or back, Ukraine in arranging such a false flag operation, and instead they would feign confusion if Ukraine went ahead and did one on its own.

I imagine such an op would get labeled a "known unknown" by those unwilling to later being exposed as far too credulous fools, and thus those who write about this war with credibility would seize on that as indicating with near certainty that it was Ukraine that was responsible.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2023 20:31 utc | 88

I think it would be appropriate for Russia to announce—publicly—that she would respond to the destruction of the Zaporozhiye NPP with the immediate obliteration of the Western world.

Wanna play with nukes, Nazis? Two can play.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 22 2023 20:43 utc | 89

“I don't think the West would approve of, or back, Ukraine in arranging such a false flag operation”

—you think wrong, Babel-17, but it’s a noble failing on your part.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 22 2023 20:46 utc | 90

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 20:25 utc | 86

To be honest, testing out the mythical article 5 seems to be where it's going.

A lot of countries, especially in western and southern Europe will kind of say:
"Um... guess what... Poland, Balts, Finns..? You are in our thoughts, good luck, we are sending our morale support".

Has anyone of these Nato dumba#ses in eastern Europe actually read the agreement? It says the member country can send such kind of support they want to, or deem relevant, i.e. it says nothing at all about committing to some war.

The point is that most likely the Nato will get split, and eastern Europe will be left fighting on their own. US will watch them get obliterated and deduce that oopsie... wowsers, sh#t happens. Their puppets got killed and US will go back scheming some new plans for the next American century.

Or it'll go all nuclear, etc.

If US or UK makes a False flag of some nuclear or attack event, RU might not be waiting regardless of what MSM thinks, they could go ahead and annihilate the fringe US vassals before they can react. This applies if the fringe vassals are hosting US nukes. If they aren't, funnily they will be safe.

RU nuclear doctrine actually says that it can be triggered even in the case that a "non nuclear country is allied to a nuclear power, hosts its nukes and there are verifiable and reliable information that an attack is being planned". That means the Polski boys, Balts and Finns. So RU may annihilate then in the event that US or UK create a false flag event before they can react.

Just some speculation here, but I think it's relevant.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 20:46 utc | 91

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 22 2023 19:51 utc | 73

They also practice assaulting airports to establish an air bridge and there are three located close to three main bridges across the Dnieper. As Russia is intensifying pressure across the entire front, as a response to the stalled offensive, Ukraine is being forced to send more and more units eastwards. Russia has limited airlift capability, but a surge capacity could deploy enough troops to hold those bridges till OMG type columns could relieve them, a Market Garden/Kanev hybrid. The only trouble with this spitballing is that, whilst fine as a theoretical exercises, it would entail risk, something the Russian High Command have been obsessively concerned about, being keenly aware that the nature of modern warfare is to accelerate the impact and outcome of flawed decisions. Something the Ukrainians are only too aware of, as they reach equilibrium and have to rely on DoD dodgy accounting and even dodgier platforms to stop a wholesale collapse of the front.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 22 2023 20:51 utc | 92

whirlX | Jun 22 2023 19:51 utc | 73--

Thanks for your reply. Airmobile forces are transported via Helos along with their mobile equipment, AD systems, artillery, and logistical supplies, not dropped from planes; although, Russian paratroops have very similar capabilities and much of their equipment is engineered to be airdropped. The insanity and resulting uncertainty of using gliders is no more.

The entire scenario was written as a response to Paul Damascene's query on the last Ukie open thread. He wanted to know what might short-circuit NATO involvement. IMO, it's important to create more facts on the ground prior to the NATO confab in July. Something I omitted from this scenario that I included in the lost original was the Russian consideration for keeping casualties to a minimum. IMO, the sort of offensive thrusts proposed does just that versus trying to slog through defensive barriers that become killing fields.

Anyhow, I promised a reply and delivered one.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 20:52 utc | 93

In time Zelly will meet the same or even worse treatment as Mussolini...for destroying the Ukrainian youth...

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2023 20:53 utc | 94

If for a great deal of your life you have been idolized, either by the media or for your business acumen or for some trivial product you have invented, if you have been held up as a person of “superior thoughts,” because you belong to the latest enlightenment principles, or you truly believe you have arrived at the highest comprehension of Buddhism, or some new idea or comprehension or philosophy, and fancy yourself as having achieved moral and intellectual superiority, if you belong to the billionaire class, or are moving up through your millions, and a lump of society heralds this as an “achievement” of enormous proportions, and idolizes you and grovels before you because they have been inculcated from childhood to believe that finances equals success, then you will never be able to give up the idea that you are significant and relevant and better than everyone, and not just a speck of dust. You will never give that up if you have to kill for it. That what you have done is nothing, a waste of breath. And then you die, and all your fuss represents nothing at all.

Even commenters here rave about which commentator is worthless, compared to him or her I guess, of exalted intellect. So it is that people just can’t surrender some elevated notion of their selves without which they’d feel like nothing, a thought which terrifies them more than all else. And that really everyone belongs to the very least, and all else is hypocrisy and self deception.

Posted by: Geoff | Jun 22 2023 20:53 utc | 95

Ukraine is finished, because US will prioritize arming its still intact vassals over Ukraine from its significantly diminished economic base compared to 1942. They could prioritize Ukraine but they would have to pay all the bills themselves, and that would weaken the US financial position much faster.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 18:52 utc | 55

The United States is spending 0.2% of GDP on aid to Ukraine, all types.

https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1671862682658504705/photo/2

The United States might get bored, or Trump might win, and I'm sure that prospect keeps Zelensky up at night. But the "Russia is crushing the EMPIRE!!" stuff on this page is just comedy. At the moment, Russia is on defense against Ukraine.

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 22 2023 20:53 utc | 96

Posted by: spindz | Jun 22 2023 19:53 utc | 75

Here's something a bit cleaner, that should also bring the war to a rapid close. Ukraine keeps going only with the full financial support of the West. What if Russia were to interdict all electronic funds transfer (EFT) to/from Ukraine? And blow up any armored cars or vehicles carry cash? How long before the Ukraine elites would surrender? I think this could end the war quickly, with relatively little physical damage.

An interesting thought, but one that would be tough to implement with modern banking systems being electronic.

My guess is that Ukrainian civil servants and the military are paid directly or indirectly by the US Treasury dept. The electronic funds are likely transferred from banks in NY or London, directly into some Ukrainian bank or perhaps the Ukrainian Central Bank. How many "hops" it has to take is unknown. At some stage of the process, it might be vulnerable to a cyber attack. Note that last week there were several hacking groups that threatened a massive attack on European banks via SWIFT. It turned out to be a bunch of bluster.

A massive takedown of the electric grid around Kiev might do the trick.
No juice means the ATMs don't work.

There would still be the cash delivered by trucks or dropped via helicopter in pallets option, though.


Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 22 2023 20:54 utc | 97

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 22 2023 20:53 utc | 96

Most of the western GDP is based on the derivatives, real estate and asset markets. They tell nothing at all of the real economy. IIRC, Germany is much smaller than Russia in several real economy components, US is below China and slightly above Russia.

Yields are permanently much higher than before now in the west. Real estate is falling and eating into nominal GDPs.

Comparing nominal GDP and deducing some sort of potential military power is a proposition for fools. Martyanov also wrote about it. Julian MacFarlane IIRC also had 3 blog post series on that.

EU has very weak potential to produce anything related to arms, they don't even have enough basic material for explosive making.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2023 21:01 utc | 98

Posted by: zinjanthropus | Jun 22 2023 20:53 utc | 96
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For the Americans, everything is Hollywood and Rambo... :)

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2023 21:03 utc | 99

Given the anniversary today is that was already mentioned upthread, Russia has released some archival documents about what happened 82 years ago. Furthermore:

"Also on the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow, the Russian Military Historical Society published in Russian for the first time the full version of Nazi Germany's plan to exterminate the population of the USSR. Dubbed the "Hunger Plan" (German: "der Hungerplan"; "der Backe-Plan"), it was part of a strategy to use famine against the population of the Soviet Union, occupied by the Nazis."

Here's the link given in the article. The following excerpt comes several paragraphs after the article's beginning:

"Meanwhile, in recent years, this document and its background have attracted more and more attention from European and American researchers (Gerlach, 1999, Kay, 2011, Benz 2011, Dieckmann, 2015, Ace, 2018). The greatest scientists see in it the basis of the so-called famine plan - a system of measures that were supposed to lead to the transformation of the Third Reich into economic autarky at the cost of starvation of millions of Soviet citizens. Western historiography has stated that, in the words of the famous British historian Adam Tooze, "the Wehrmacht invaded the Soviet Union with the intention of carrying out not one, but two programs of mass murder" (Ace, 2018: 609). From the very beginning of the war against the USSR, the goal of extermination for the political elite of the Third Reich was not only the Jews, whose tragedy was terrible and no one doubts, but also the widest group of Soviet citizens of other nationalities, the number of which Nazi planners estimated at 20-30 million people."

All this correlates well with commentary I made at Simplicius's about who were the #1 victims of the Holocaust, and they were not those professing the Jewish faith; rather, they were Slavs. In other words, what's become the Holocaust Industry is a deliberate miscarriage of genuine history that ought to be seen as an integral part of the Cold War and one of the major first attempts to falsify WW2 history.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2023 21:07 utc | 100

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