|
Media: One Side “Says” – The Other “Provides No Evidence”
The recent reporting on the conflict in Ukraine in 'western' media has reveled a deceiving scheme in which baseless claims from Kiev are taken for granted while everything Moscow says, even when based on facts, is put into doubt.
Here are a few examples:
White House dismisses ‘ludicrous’ Russian claims US planned Kremlin drone strikes – Guardian – May 4, 2023
Asked about an accusation by the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, that Washington had ordered Wednesday’s strike, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman, said: “One thing I can tell you for certain is that the US did not have any involvement with this incident, contrary to Mr Peskov’s lies, and that’s just what they are: lies.” … Earlier on Thursday, Peskov claimed the US had “dictated” the plan of what Russia said was a drone attack on the Kremlin intended to kill Vladimir Putin. Peskov did not provide any evidence to support the allegations.
What evidence did the U.S. provide?
Ukrainian forces advance on Russians, deny ‘counteroffensive’ has begun – Washington Post – June 5, 2023
Ukraine’s military made gains against Russian forces in multiple locations along the eastern front, the country’s deputy defense minister said Monday, as an increasing cadence in combat operations raised speculation that the much-anticipated counteroffensive was finally imminent.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram that troops conducted multiple “offensive actions” in the eastern Donetsk region despite “stiff resistance and the enemy’s attempts to hold the occupied lines and positions.”
But Ukrainian officials denied claims by Moscow that they had launched the counteroffensive — and that Russian troops had thwarted it.
A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukrainian forces had started the counteroffensive by trying to push through five areas of the Russian line in Donetsk but had been repelled. The statement by Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, in a video posted by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, could not be verified.
The piece repeats the claims of "gains" made by the Ukrainian side but puts the Russian claim into doubt. How many of Ukrainian claims of victories "could not be verified" but were senselessly repeated?
Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have no information on “large scale offensive” in Donetsk region – CNN – June 5, 2023
Ukraine does “not have information” on the “large-scale offensive” that Russian claims was launched against them in Donetsk region, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian armed forces Bohdan Senyk, told CNN.
On Monday, Russia claimed they have repelled, killed and captured multiple Ukrainian units in the region, but did not provide any evidence of the fact.
Next case:
Key Ukrainian dam blown up, Kyiv blames Russia – Politico – June 6, 2023
Ukraine blamed Russia for explosions at a key dam, which unleashed massive flooding and threatened 80 settlements in what Kyiv says is a last-ditch attempt to derail its counteroffensive.
In a statement, Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said "Russian occupation troops blew up the dam" at Nova Kakhovka, in the Kherson region in eastern Ukraine. … The Russian-installed mayor of Nova Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontiev, denied allegations the dam had been sabotaged by the Kremlin's forces and claimed Ukraine was responsible for the damage, according to Russian state media. Leontiev did not provide any evidence for his claims.
Neither did Ukraine for its claims but there is not even a hint in the piece that Kiev may be lying.
And another one:
Ukraine Mounts Multiple Attacks on Russian Occupiers – New York Times – June 8, 2023
On one side – just flat out statements taken for granted:
Three senior U.S. officials, as well as military analysts, said that a long-awaited major Ukrainian counteroffensive appeared to be underway, after months spent mobilizing and training new units, and arming them with advanced Western weapons. … Kyiv said little about the intensified fighting, neither confirming nor denying Russian claims, and Ukrainian officials have said they will not discuss details for reasons of operational secrecy. … A Ukrainian deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said a battle was underway in the area of a larger town about 10 miles away in the neighboring Donetsk region, Velyka Novosilka, but it was unclear if she was referring to the same clash.
The other side's claims are depicted as dubious:
The Russian war bloggers, who have become a major source of information from the front lines, said Ukraine’s forces had suffered heavy losses, though such claims could not be confirmed and in the past have often been exaggerated. … The Russian account, like most claims about what was happening at the front, could not be confirmed independently, but videos verified by The New York Times showed a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Velyka Novosilka hitting a land mine.
I could add a dozen more pieces that follow the scheme. Ukrainian or U.S. claims lead the piece without being put into doubt. Russian counterclaims come a few paragraphs down and are immediately said to lack any evidence.
By the way: What the New York Times claims to have confirmed via video is just one of many screw ups on the Ukrainian side that can be seen these days.
Over the last 48 hours I have watched half a dozen drone videos of Ukrainian vehicles rumbling in tight columns over open fields, without minesweepers, without smokescreen or artillery cover, only to get blown up in minefields and massacred by anti-tank missiles.
No seasoned platoon or company leader would plan and execute attacks like that but, watching those videos, I doubt that the Ukraine still has any of those.
Then we have this:
Ukrainian forces have suffered losses in heavy equipment and soldiers as they met greater than expected resistance from Russian forces in their first attempt to breach Russian lines in the east of the country in recent days, two senior US officials tell CNN.
One US official described the losses – which include US supplied MRAP armored personnel vehicles as “significant.”
Did any of the U.S. or NATO leaders really think that the Ukrainian forces would have a f***ing chance by senselessly running into well prepared Russian defenses? Really???
THE FUTURE OF THE SMO – INSTALLMENT 6
END DATE
“We are the dead. Our only true life is in the future. We shall take part in it as handfuls of dust and splinters of bone. But how far away that future may be, there is no knowing.”
– George Orwell
We cannot know how far away our individual future may stretch. But it is a mathematical certainty that our future is finite and diminishing with each passing day.
The future of the UkroReich is also finite and it too diminishes with each passing day. Once the UkroReich has no more living that it can turn into “handfuls of dust and splinters of bone” it too will cease to exist and the SMO will end. This post seeks to estimate that end date.
The UkroReich has a 687 mile (1,522 kilometre) mile border with the RF.
. . . the Ukrainian Army has said that they have a front width of 2,450 kilometres (1,522 miles) of which 1,105 (687 miles) are active fighting. By active fighting, I assume that means the area from Kharkov to Severodonetsk to Kherson. The border with Belarus is 891 kilometers (554 miles), which I assume is part of the “inactive area.” The Ukrainian border with Russia is 1,974 kilometers (1,227 miles). Anyhow, not sure exactly how this active front is calculated, but I will use the Ukrainian Army figures for now (until I get the energy to pull out a ruler and painstakingly measure it myself).
So, 200,000 troops divided by 1,105 kilometers is 181 men per kilometer.
SOURCE:
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2022/06/23/density-of-deployment-in-ukraine/
181 men per kilometre equals 112 men per mile of active front or 47 feet between each individual in uniform. Note that this calculation only gives a total for necessary border protection. It does not include any personnel collected for an offensive schwerpunkt.
The inactive front of 554 miles bordering Belarus is left undefended in this calculation. Given the presence of RF forces in Belarus the UkroReich must maintain some form of force presence along this border. Using the above estimate of 112 individuals per mile of front the Belarus border is estimated to require a further 62,048 individuals for border protection and control.
The UkroReich also maintains a border with Poland. According to Wikipedia the present state border between Poland and Ukraine has a total length of 428 km (266 mi)(subject to future modification). The border with Hungary is 103 kilometres (64 mi) long, Moldova 939 kilometres (583 mi), the border with Romania 169 kilometres (105 mi) on the south and 362 kilometres (225 mi) on the west for a total of 330 miles, and the border with Slovakia 90 kilometres (56 miles).
SOURCE:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Ukraine
The length of these various other borders comes to a total of 1,333 miles. There is likely a lesser standard of presence on these borders. For the purpose of the present calculation it is estimated these borders are staffed at 25% of the level of the UkroReich / RF border. This amounts to 28 persons per mile for an estimated total of 37,324 persons. Adding this figure to the 62,048 person estimate for Belarus results in an estimate of 99,372 persons engaged in border protection on inactive, or “peaceful,” borders.
When this estimate is coupled with the 200,000 troops required on the active border with RF the total force estimate is 299,372 persons.
Dima of the Military summary YT channel maintains a spreadsheet of UkroReich losses. This spreadsheet commences on 2022-07-11 and runs up to the present day (2023-06-06) Dima tabulates 164,888 UAF losses in this 350 day period or 164,888 / 350 = 471 individuals lost per day
SOURCE:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18WfJv1_DOlFOzvjh6iT1N8ltDvaCeWu1cPK_eaHKCR4/edit#gid=0
This “casualty rate” accords with “Clobber List” data delivered by Dima, and by Down South, rumod report, and others on MoA.
West of England Andy | May 27 2023 17:22 utc | 3 gave losses of 495. This degree of loss occurred on a day when:
“In a statement on Telegram, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Russian forces have continued attacking but that “overall offensive activity has decreased”. Emphasis added.
On a day of reduced RF offensive activity the UkroReich’s Deputy Defence Minister asserts losses greater than the 471 daily losses estimated using Dima’s spreadsheet data as cited above. This gives some confidence in the accuracy of the 471 daily loss figure.
These estimated losses have been greatly exceeded by recent losses on the Zaporizhia front. In 3 days of attacks the UkroReich lost a reported 4,000 individuals or 1,333 casualties per day. This scale of loss is unsustainable; it amounts to the loss of an entire brigade, a military formation which consists of a few battalions and anywhere from 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers
SOURCE:
https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Experience/Military-Units/Army/
For the purpose of this estimate we will estimate 4,000 soldiers in a UkroReich brigade. The recent losses were sustained by an offensive force assembled for the express purpose of attacking and achieving territorial gains against RF defenders.
The total size of this offensive force has been estimated:
Why am I not sure that Ukraine is already in the lowest combat effectiveness level? It has something to do with the alleged 70,000 western trained troops who are prepared for the Ukrainian offensive. I believe that Ukraine now has some 200,000 combat ready troops left, of which 70,000 are western-trained. The rest are mobilized, untrained or poorly trained troops, directly caught on the street and briefly prepared and sent to the front to hold the line.
SOURCE:
link removed due Typepad constraints
In 2014, when I was at NATO . . .So, to compensate for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian government resorted to paramilitary militias. They are essentially composed of foreign mercenaries, often extreme right-wing militants. In 2020, they constituted about 40 percent of the Ukrainian forces and numbered about 102,000 men, according to Reuters. They were armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great Britain, Canada and France. There were more than 19 nationalities — including Swiss.
SOURCE:
“>https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/?s=09>
Apart from recent reports of Polish personnel operating against Belogrod it is believed the majority of this 100,000 foreign mercenary troops have either been destroyed in the Artyomovsk battles or they have departed the UkroReich.
Some numbers to remember:the leaked combat power build blueprint from the Pentagon called for nine western trained brigades with a total of 253 tanks, 381 IFVs, and 480 APCs.
At 28 tanks per brigade, they are significantly understrength and will get burned through quickly.
Given that, with 52 tanks already destroyed according to the Russian MoD, they’ve already burned through 20% of their tanks in less than a week. That means they’ve got about roughly 20 days left of tanks, at current attritional rates.
SOURCE:
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 8 2023 20:12 utc | 145. Emphasis added.
The nine NATO trained brigades have been estimated to contain up to 70,000 soldiers. This is the number estimated by Simplicius The Thinker and Black Mountain Analysis (Ibid). This does not account for the tooth to tail ratio.
A lower figure is given by Mark Sleboda:
Well, it came. Right where I said it would Kiev finally kicked off the big one. Well over 20k troops & mechanized forces.
10:49 am · 7 Jun 2023
SOURCE:
https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1666457446162874374
Colonel Douglas Macgregor estimates the total size of the NATO trained force package to be between 30 and 35 K. I believe this to be an accurate estimate. Macgregor also provides an estimate of UkroReich sustaining 4,000 casualties in 3 days of “probing attacks” on the Zaporizhia line.
SOURCE:
https://youtu.be/creY2YHYDSY
Douglas Macgregor – Russian Probing Attacks on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine was left with virtually no indigenous offensive power – the only way it can conduct offensive operations is with a mechanized package built from scratch by NATO.
SOURCE:
Big Serge: The Battle of Bakhmut: Postmortem June 2
If we accept Macgregor’s estimate of 35,000 (his high end estimate) for the NATO trained force package essential for any UkroReich offensive and we divide this by a casualty rate of 500 losses per day we arrive at the following:
35,000 / 500 = 70 days
Since the UkroReich has already sustained an estimated 5,000 casualties since the start of the current offensive the corrected calculation is:
30,000 / 500 = 60 days
This suggests the UkroReich will be unable to prosecute any offensive by August 9th 2023. This estimated end date does not account for the accelerated casualty rate incurred in the present UkroReich offensive.
Should the UkroReich continue to sustain losses of 1,000 per day the revised calculation is:
30,000 / 1,000 = 30 days
This implies an exhaustion of the UkroReich’s capacity for offensive action by July 9th, 2023 which is 2 days before the NATO confabulation commencing Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 in Vilnius.
In actuality any military unit which looses 50% of its force structure loses operational integrity and is unable to continue to function in the field. This implies a significant loss of UkroReich capacity by June 24th, 2023
30,000 / 2 = 15,000
15,000 / 1,000 = 15 days = June 24th, 2023
I believe the RF may launch its own offensive on or around this date. Since I do not see any UkroReich officer with the defensive skills of General Gotthard Heinrici it is entirely possible the SMO may be successfully concluded before July 11th, 2023.
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 9 2023 15:13 utc | 103
|