Kursk 2.0?
Lazy and arguably biased as I am, I will just present the analysis (slightly edited) of the former Swedish officer and defense politician Mikael Valtersson:
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA AFTERNOON JUNE 9Hard fighting continues along the Zaporizhia front, but with no Ukrainian breakthrough. Sometimes UkrAF makes small gains and then RuAF retakes the lost territories. But all fighting are still being conducted in the grey area in front of the Russian main defence lines.
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I will not go into details about attacks and counterattacks, but the main areas of fighting has been centred around Lobkove to the west, and Robotino to the south, of Orikhiv. Lobkove was captured a short while by Ukrainian forces, but later they retreated due to intense Russian bombardments.
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In Robotino Russian forces retreated to the second line of forward positions closer to the settlement, then Russian forces retook the lost positions and presently Ukrainian forces has taken them a second time and now Russian forces try to retake the first line a second time. But still the Ukrainians has not reached the settlement of Robotino and they are fighting an uphill battle in open terrain through Russian minefields and might have to withdraw a second time to their original positions.
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The Ukrainian forces don't seem to sweep mines in advance of the attack. They do it with a couple of mine clearing vehicles when they attack and behind them the Ukrainian armour advance in a column that is an easy target for Russian AT assets. In a way it resembles the Russian armour columns in the beginning of the war. Columns that took catastrophic losses to Ukrainian AT weapons, a history now repeated by the Ukrainians.In advance of an offensive, the attacking side must secure air and artillery superiority, so they can shield their mine clearing operations and troop concentrations. And at the same time destroy the defenders command structures and logistical hubs. Finally when they attack their air and artillery superiority can be utilised to severely hurt and slow down enemy reserves to secure breakthroughs. This becomes even more important if the enemy has large reserves and a defence in depth.
On the Zaporizhia front the situation is the opposite, so Ukrainian forces hasn't many choices how to act. One method is to achieve strategic surprise as in the Kharkiv offensive last autumn. That option doesn't exist on the Zaporizhia front. In general I would say that an attack towards an enemy who has all the benefits RuAF has on the Zaporizhia front is suicidal.
The only way Ukrainian (and western) commanders even could have contemplated that such an offensive could succeed was if
- western weapons were much superior to Russian weapons,
- western trained soldiers much superior to Russian soldiers and
- Russian morale was dismal.
If all these factors where true, UkrAF might have had a chance to succeed, but nothing seems to corroborate those assumptions.
Many on the Ukrainian and western side had anticipated hard initial resistance from RuAF, but after 2-3 days fighting and advances of around 6-8 km, they expected an increasing collapse of Russian morale and the real breakthroughs would come. Nothing of this seems to be other than wishful thinking, since fighting still are in the grey zone and Russian resistance are unbroken. At the same time Ukrainian forces take heavy casualties both in soldiers and vehicles.
The offensive isn't over yet and the main Ukrainian attack fist remains with probably over 600 tanks and as many IFVs around Orikhiv. But the future for the Ukrainian offensive looks bleak if their vanguard is destroyed before they reach the Russian main defence lines. The probability is large that Ukraine has to use up their main force to get through a couple of the Russian defencelines and then they will run out of forces to exploit any successes and be forced to withdraw.
To summarise, the most likely outcome of the Ukrainian offensive is minor territorial gains at a horrendous cost.
As I've said before it seems to be Kursk 2.0
I largely agree with the above assessment (even though Kursk 1.0 was much larger and way more balanced).
The biggest tactical mistake I see on the Ukrainian side is the bunching up of vehicles. The distance between combat vehicle on roads and in open fields should be 100 meter, not 10, 5 or 1 meter like in the picture below. The Ukrainian columns regularly get slaughtered by artillery strikes because they always(!) bunch up. Keeping distances is a basic training lecture for any combined arms warfare unit.
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Where are the air defenses? Ukraine has received 37 German Gepard (cheetah) air defense tanks. These are old but can keep the air clean, each within a 10 kilometer wide bubble. The Gepards were specifically designed to cover tank and mech-infantry battalions in battle. But judging from the number of drone videos the Russian can put out, there is not one Gepard in the whole area.
Also where are the electromagnetic measures. Why can Russian artillery directing drones fly over the combat zone but not Ukrainians?
Why are no fog grenades used by Ukrainian artillery to cover the approaches and breaching attempts by Ukrainian armor?
How are piecemeal commitments, wave after wave but hours apart, going to change anything when what is needed are massive consistent pushes to get through?
Folks, these are basics, not higher level operational or strategic issues. I have drilled these basics into conscripts. If you can't even get those right, after allegedly intense 'western' training, what hope is there to breach through seriously prepared Russian defense lines?
None.
Here is some of the damage done to last night's and today's morning attacks by an allegedly prime Ukrainian unit, the 43rd 'western' trained brigade, that uses prime 'western' equipment.
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Here is video of more.
The first serious probing attacks for the counter offensive started on June 5. I have listed the Ukrainian losses the Russian Ministry of Defense has since reported. Note that these numbers are mostly for the whole front, not just for the Zaporizhia region.
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These numbers are, like in most frontline reports, likely too high. But even if one only takes them at half or a third for real they are still frightening high.
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A whole brigade, more likely a third each of three brigades, has been wasted for zero gains.
Consider that we are five days in and the Ukrainian forces, despite using Leopards and Bradleys, their main forces, have hardly crossed the first contact line. The real Russian first defense lines are still miles away and there are three or more of those.
The History Legends Youtube channel calls this a disaster.
I agree with that too.
Posted by b on June 9, 2023 at 16:33 UTC | Permalink
next page »I remember the Russian column of vehicles just sitting there but not being attacked at all in the Initial SMO back in March 2022.
You could almost feel the drool coming from Fox News idiots as they thought about using the USAF to take it out. But the Ukrainian government was in such a panic they never did much. Maybe a few javelins were employed.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 9 2023 16:42 utc | 2
What are odds that NATO learns from its mistake and next year attacks only after an effort to establish air Supremency ?
Posted by: Exile | Jun 9 2023 16:49 utc | 3
A good parallel, with the Ukrainians throwing themselves at the well fortified front lines of an enemy that has numeric superiority (and unlike with Kursk the Russians have overwhelming air and artillery superiority, as well as being better equipped). This is the absolute best outcome for Russia, with the best echelons of the Ukrainian army being obliterated with low Russian losses. Like Ali doing "rope a dope", letting the enemy tire themselves out so they are that much easier to knock out later. The Russian EW capabilities are showing the overwhelming superiority of the Russian technology by taking out the Ukrainian drones as a factor, just like the destruction of the Patriot systems. Now adding dead Leopards.
The Russians must not stop until they get to the Polish border, otherwise they will lose the victory that is becoming more and more apparent. Once the Ukrainians are spent and their military morale and capabilities have collapsed they must pounce hard while they have the summer weather and the hard ground.
Military Summary take:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtmYjBL4FNk
The only question is whether the Polish elite idiots will attempt to enter Western Ukraine. Throwing in some F16's to get shot out of the sky will make as much difference as the other wunderwaffe.
---Ukie crack suicide squads in action. --
Even in the official Pentagon press release, the UA M2 crews got one month of training in the US.
Posted by: Thor's Nailclipper | Jun 9 2023 16:49 utc | 5
More like the battle of Kursk that Russia wanted
In the 1943 version, the Red Army shut down the northern assault out of Orel.
But on the southern front, the Germans tested the the 3rd and last defensive line. The Red Army wanted to contain the Germans between the first and second lines of defense.
To become another Kursk, the Russians would launch a counter-attack after the Ukrainian offensive is spent.
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An attack on Zaporizhya, while doomed to failure, especially with the swollen river, could serve Ukraine well if they only commit enough forces to pin Russian defenders there. This would help their northern effort in the Orikhiv area. This assumes that the Ukrainians were wiley enough to balance their forces correctly and give their northern attack more resources while not bleeding to death at Zaporizhya.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jun 9 2023 16:50 utc | 6
---What are odds that NATO learns from its mistake and next year attacks only after an effort to establish air Supremency ?---
If there is an attack (broad Kyiv offensive) next year, it'll be a part of WW3, or the first Intermarium-RU war.
Posted by: James Tiberius Burke | Jun 9 2023 16:52 utc | 7
Two more days until NATO military exercises start.
What will be the status then and what will NATO do about it?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 9 2023 16:52 utc | 8
⚡️ Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (June 9, 2023)
💥 Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike with long-range precision sea and air-based weapons against foreign-made ammunition, weapons and military equipment depots , including unmanned aerial vehicles . All assigned objects are hit.
💥 As a result of the strikes, the supply of Ukrainian troops in the areas of hostilities was disrupted.
◽️ Over the past day, the armed forces of Ukraine continued to attempt to conduct offensive operations in the South-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions.
In the area of the Vremevsky ledge, units of the Vostok group of forces repelled four enemy attacks, carried out by forces of up to two battalion tactical groups, reinforced with tanks, in the areas of the settlements of Levadne, Zaporozhye region, Novoselka, Storozhevoe and Neskuchnoe, Donetsk People's Republic.
◽️ In the Zaporozhye direction, decisive and competent actions of Russian troops, air strikes and artillery fire repelled two attacks by Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye region during the day.
💥 In addition, south of the city of Orekhov, Zaporozhye region, heavy flamethrower systems inflicted damage on two clusters of manpower and equipment of the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
◽️ Operational-tactical aviation strikes of the Vostok group of troops hit enemy reserves in the areas of the settlements of Gulyai Pole, Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka, Zaporozhye region.
◽️ The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in these directions per day amounted to 680 Ukrainian military personnel, 35 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles, 19 armored fighting vehicles, six vehicles, including three
HMMWVs, as well as a French-made Cezar self-propelled artillery mount.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, the most active hostilities were conducted in the areas of the settlements of Maryinka and Avdeevka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 The “Southern” group of troops successfully repelled six attacks by units of the 110th mechanized, 59th motorized infantry and 79th air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the directions of the settlements of Khimik, Krasnogorovka, Pervomayskoye and the northern outskirts of Maryinka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Wedging in our defense is not allowed.
◽️ During the fighting, up to 410 Ukrainian servicemen, four tanks, eight infantry fighting vehicles, seven vehicles, the US-made M777 artillery system, and the Msta-B howitzer were destroyed in a day.
💥 In addition, an ammunition depot of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed near the village of Krasnogorovka.
◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, operational-tactical and army aviation, artillery of the "Western" group of troops hit units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Novomlynsk, Molchanovo, Berestovoye of the Kharkov region and Rozovka of the Luhansk People's Republic.
◽️ In the areas of the settlements of Olshana, Kharkiv region and Novoselovskoe, Lugansk people's republic, the activities of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were stopped.
💥 Over 30 Ukrainian military personnel, three vehicles, combat vehicle MLRS "Hurricane" , as well as two D-30 howitzers.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limansky direction, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the "Center" group of forces defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Nevskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic, Yampolovka and Grigorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
💥 The activities of the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group were stopped in the area of the settlement of Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Over the past day, more than 50 Ukrainian military personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, two vehicles, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts, as well as a D-20 howitzer.
💥 In the area of the village of Serebryanka of the Donetsk People's Republic, a US-made AN / TPQ-37 counter-battery radar was hit.
◽️ In the Kherson direction , as a result of fire damage, up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, 10 armored combat vehicles, seven vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery mount, and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in a day.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit 97 artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 126 districts.
💥 Two command and observation posts of units of the 24th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit near the city of Dzerzhinsk in the Donetsk People's Republic.
◽️ The communications center of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade was destroyed in the area of the village of Gulyai Pole, Zaporozhye region.
💥 Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force in the area of the settlement of Novoe Zaporizhia, Zaporozhye region, in an air battle.
💥 A Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down by means of air defense near the village of Babino, Kherson region.
💥 During the day, two Storm Shadow cruise missiles and 14 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers were intercepted.
◽️ In addition, 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Ogurtsovo, Olshana, Kharkiv region, Zhytlovka, Luhansk People's Republic, Volodino, Krasnogorovka, Donetsk People's Republic, Sladkaya Balka, Zaporozhye Region, Bratolyubovka, Peschanoe, and Vasylivka, Kherson Region.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation , 440 aircraft, 238 helicopters, 4,555 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9,798 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,122 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 5,062 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 10838 units of special military vehicles.
🔹 @mod_russia
Posted by: rumod report | Jun 9 2023 16:53 utc | 9
Who are the vaunted NATO advisors who planned this? Are these the tactics NATO trainers suggested?
Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Jun 9 2023 16:58 utc | 10
@Posted by: Exile | Jun 9 2023 16:49 utc | 3
What are odds that NATO learns from its mistake and next year attacks only after an effort to establish air Supremency ?
This war is right next to Belarus and Russia, making it straight-forward for the Russians to employ their Air Force and their leading anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems together with their extensive EW capabilities. The Russians have also spent more than a year gaining real battleground experience, including their AA crews and their pilots. If NATO attempts to establish air superiority it will take many hundreds, if not more, of aircraft all requiring extensive support and maintenance facilities together with good pilots. That is not doable from Ukrainian territory without the concomitant escalation of large numbers of NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.
If air bases in Eastern Europe are used for offensive actions by NATO pilots that by itself is also a massive escalation and opens up those nations to large scale missile attacks upon their military and other military-supportive infrastructures. I see a possibility of this if the US establishment is losing to Trump or RFK Jr. in mid 2024, with lots of dead US and other NATO pilots creating a war frenzy but I just don't see the US military going along with this given the utterly lunatic nature of such a move. It could also have an opposite effect domestically, sparking huge internal unrest and boosting Trump/RFK Jr.
My expectation is that the US and European economies will be in the middle of a deep stagflation event by then (the economy and financial markets look so much like mid 2000 and mid 2008 right now) which may add to the desperation of a segment of the elite and the security state to create a foreign diversion, but they risk throwing a lighter into a pool of gasoline in which they are standing.
Business Insider reluctantly admits the Ukr losses may be legit...
"Russia's Ministry of Defense dropped a shocking video on Thursday, which seemed to show one of Ukraine's prized Leopard tanks being blown up."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-video-first-western-130714564.html
Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2023 17:07 utc | 12
One method is to achieve strategic surprise as in the Kharkiv offensive last autumn.
I am sure the 5,000 or so Russian and LPR/DPR that remained in those areas were very surprised...
... that the Kharkov offensive did not happen in April or May. The failure of Ukraine to regain barely visited territory is one of the most telling details of the war. My assumption is that Kiev just assumed it would be negotiating a defeat after Nato plans were completely overturned. Russia pre-empted the CIA announced false flag with a distraction effort that got enough artillery between Donbas civilians and Ukrainian dug in artillery to prevent the slaughter of the Donbas. Without the Donbas hostages, Nato was lost.
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Jun 9 2023 17:10 utc | 13
This is the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade forming the vanguard, many of its soldiers underwent intensive training in Germany and the UK, this Brigade consists of of volunteers and not conscripts and is equipped with Western weapons not Soviet era.
Although intensively trained and equipped by NATO many in the Brigade lack combat experience, Ukraine should have send experienced units such as the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade Azov.
However according to NATO this is the best Brigade to use as a fist to punch through the Ukrainian defence.
One reason maybe they all bunched up together as pictured, is the column has to keep to the road as the fields are mined. The lead tank could have been taken out by artillery which then is blocking the road with more shells landing in front. the vehicles reversed in panic breaking the distance between them, with shells landing behind them, there was no escape they get all bunched up and were destroyed by artillery or from helicopters from the air.
In armoured vehicles it’s difficult to reverse as visibility is limited, it takes a couple of years to train a tank driver, these here seemed to have received only a few months training of NATO training
Posted by: Jaffa levy | Jun 9 2023 17:10 utc | 14
natostan is mired in its own propaganda, and presumes its wunderwafen perform as advertized, even though not tested in real world.
absence of combat engineer support, for mine clearing and minimal logistics reflect an alliance not experienced with first world conflicts.
the mine fields do the job funneling attacker into a neat kill zone. had engineers been provisioned the mines may be nullified. and shell delivered mines create more problems, a tank w/o tread is not a tool for war.
during a bulge a us army combat engineer battalion (essayons) blew enough bridges and established defended road block to foil peiper's X ss panzers....
Posted by: paddy | Jun 9 2023 17:11 utc | 15
Bit of quality analysis here folks!
This is what you do when you want to make a living with journalism.
https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/ukrainian-counteroffensive-war-in-ukraine-analysis-6089515-Jun2023/
Posted by: jpc | Jun 9 2023 17:15 utc | 16
I find the comparison to Kursk misleading. For one, the Wehrmacht broke through the first 2 lines of defense at Kursk and even opened the third line, forcing the Soviets to basically throw every combat vehicle they had at the breakthrough force (which led to the Battle of Prokhorovka) to buy time to reinforce the third line and close the hole. Second, the Wehrmacht, being the aggressor at Kursk, had artillery and air superiority (though not total air superiority), while here in Zapo, the Russians basically have total air superiority and an artillery advantage (though to what degree I'm not sure) as the defender. This makes any comparison to Kursk questionable at best.
Posted by: ariantes22 | Jun 9 2023 17:23 utc | 17
Why does Ukraine make these stupid mistakes - vehicles too close together, no proper minesweeping, no adequate air defense ...?
Two words: NATO training
Does NATO have any officers with real battle field experience? What were the last wars that Germany, Poland and other countries "training" Ukrainian soldiers fought? And won?
NATO armies are currently learning how to fight. From Ukrainian soldiers. Not the other way round. And not in a good way: after Ukrainian soldiers die, NATO figures out what they did wrong. And tries not to repeat their mistakes. Two or three years down the line, there will NATO training exercises in mine clearing, in attacking with tanks, in providing air defense to attacking armies. Maybe, if industry moves fast, they'll even have artillery cannons that can fire more than 100 rounds per day. Assuming NATO and their suppliers get their act together and produce enough ammo to fire more than 100 rounds a day, that is.
Lesson for Ukraine: if you have your soldiers trained by soldiers that have no battlefield experience other than getting their ass wupped 'ghanistan, you don't learn how to win.
Posted by: Marvin | Jun 9 2023 17:24 utc | 18
@Posted by: Christian Chuba | Jun 9 2023 16:50 utc | 6
To become another Kursk, the Russians would launch a counter-attack after the Ukrainian offensive is spent.
That's exactly what they should do, they would stand a good chance of surrounding Zaparozhzhia and quite possibly Dnipro against the east bank of the river. This is the perfect move to destroy the logistic support to the Ukrainian Eastern and Southern fronts, while extending the coverage of Russians artillery, AA and EW systems into the rear of the Nikopol positions and making it very hard for Ukraine to stage any forces on the West Bank around the two cities. A thrust west from Kupyansk would then cut off the only other major transport artery feeding the Eastern and Southern fronts. Then dig in for the Fall rains and the winter, while waiting for the ground around Kherson to dry out and watching the South and Eastern Ukrainian fronts collapse from lack of supplies and fresh troops.
The impact of such Russian moves would turn the Ukrainian offensive debacle into a huge Russian offensive win, and probably draw a lot of further Ukrainian forces into open fights with Russian forces in terrain favourable to the Russians. I would also be surprised if the current Ukrainian leadership survived very long afterwards.
12 - I really don't know why they think Western tanks are invincible. It's not like the Russians are Zulus in 1879...
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 17:27 utc | 20
@Exile | Jun 9 2023 16:49 utc | 3
How?
At the current rate of loss, this year should be sufficient to eliminate the Ukraine's defensive capabilities, let alone their ability to attack. Even 8f we were to ignore this, were NATO to engage in a conventional war against Russia, it would rapidly escalate to deployment of thermonuclear devices resulting in the conversion of Europe and parts of North America and Asia into uninhabitable wastelands and the likely extinction of humans. So what do you imag8ne that NATO could they do that might result in the Ukraine defeating Russia.
Posted by: Hermit | Jun 9 2023 17:30 utc | 21
thanks b...
russia -don't let your guard down.. stay strong... i wish this madness would end soon, but nato and friends will have nothing of that.. so ukrainians and the mercenaries who are employed continue in this madness...
Posted by: james | Jun 9 2023 17:31 utc | 22
#2
I monitor, however do not suffer the humiliation of watching any 'rules based order' media.
I agree with you that fox 'news' is certainly a shameful entity.
They are (or were?) also the only MSM entity that featured some skepticism, or even opposition to this entire demonic exercise.
Just sayin'.
Posted by: Robert Hope | Jun 9 2023 17:32 utc | 23
Many thanks b, you "lazy, armchair general" XD
I loved a comment to the twaddle video you linked (which has an awesome soundtrack, btw); "The Leopard 2 A-6 becomes the winner in the highest flying turret championship."
Posted by: robjira | Jun 9 2023 17:33 utc | 24
"Who are the vaunted NATO advisors who planned this? Are these the tactics NATO trainers suggested?"
NATO got eaten up by its own anti-Russkies and pro-wunderwaffen-western-tech propaganda.
The US lost in Afghanistan cuz the goat herders had no tanks for US firepower to target.
Bruh, one German tank is as good as 3 Orc-Hoarde tanks. 1 M2 can shoot up as many BMPs as they have missiles.
The Russky Army are conscripts fighting like it's 1999 Chechnya.
Posted by: Pro Risk Player | Jun 9 2023 17:39 utc | 25
Mikael Valtersson was a defense politician for the Sweden Democrats. That's a right wing and nationalist party, Sweden's equivalent to Azov.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 9 2023 17:48 utc | 26
I reckon those bradleys are trying to shield the leotard, trying to stop it getting too stretched outa shape ; )
seriously, otherwise wtf? what are they thinking? are they trained as leopard shields? what their mentality?
they must be out their skulls on something, i don't mean russki lead.
Posted by: rubberheid | Jun 9 2023 17:50 utc | 27
The uke tanks remind me of how snails behave when they come up on one that has been crunched on a sidewalk. Thay all bunch up around their squished compatriot where they in turn get crunched because they're in an exposed area. Snails can be forgiven because they have no brains. Ukes have no such excuse.
Thanks b. for your laziness. :)
What is important here is that so far, RF military has proven to be fit to a task, well-trained and professional, as it goes.
Also, RF military is restructured to the brigade level, and have now a very modern set up meant to act as effective, as it can be.
Detection works well, answer to destruction comes fast, EW works, aerospace forces work well, ISR seems effective across the spectrum.
What I find intriguing is that when there is a real action on the ground, there are no NATO AWACS, Sentinels, Artemis' also the other stuff, and it appears that ISR activity in the area is close to zero.
As NATO has left Ukrainians on their own to fight blind. So it appears on the surface.
Not to mention the lack of air support, so ground offensive activity can not be carried smooth and according to any Soviet, NATO or whatever tactics. It all so far looks as a lack of trained personnel, improvising on the spot and that is causing confusion totale.
I am under the impression that Ukrainian strategy is to exhaust RF forces with constant killing fields-feed with lower tech and a second grade troops.
That might go on like that for some days and after that, Ukrainians will try to do “drang_durch_abwehr” tactics with massive armour, better drone and artillery support and such.
But so far even that looks too optimistic to make an impact at all.
I think that Ukraine has no stamina and here on MoA that was a correct mantra.
RF must end this decisively, be cruel there and very firm to achieve peace under their terms without any slimy twisting and turning from NATO's owners.
But, during this gracious ending, I would still love to see BRICS forces acquiring some real combat experience.
That would bury NATO an extra 2 meters deeper.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 9 2023 18:09 utc | 29
"I want to congratulate on my own behalf and on behalf of the Wagner PMCs team, from the fighters and from the commanders, to congratulate those who destroyed enemy equipment in the Zaporozhye direction — the very "Leopards" that are now widely distributed in the media and social networks. Thanks guys! Well done! 58th army, gunners, motorized infantry, who from the trenches struck at the enemy, at the manpower, finishing them off, and in the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, who supported them from the air. We still have a lot of work to do to restore the former glory of the Russian army and the brilliance of Russian weapons."
(c) Prigozhin
via CC
Posted by: Prigozhin post | Jun 9 2023 18:14 utc | 30
Armchair general that I am, what I drew from the recent debacle and its obvious incompetence and amateurishness, is that the Ukraine army no longer has the mid-level officers to plan, command and support any offensive: they are all dead.
Remember Russia's clobber list has been striking command centres for a year. There's probably no one to devise a minefield clearance plan,for example, and no combat engineers to carry it out.
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 9 2023 18:20 utc | 31
Unless anyone has proof that RuMOD is exaggerating.... when we know the Ukies lie all the time...
Let's go with Ru MOD numbers....
70 Artillery
309 IFV/ACV
131 Tanks
6400 personnel
Above Zaporizhe front only....
If we add in losses from the other fronts....
80 Artillery
350 IFV/ACV
150 Tanks
8000 personnel
All in a week's time...
Given the Ukies had 600 tanks at the beginning of the week, they expended 25% of their force.
Given the Ukies had 60,000 motivated personnel at the beginning of the week, they expended 13% of that force and likely rendered fully 25% of their strike brigades in operable.
All in one week....
For no gain what ever....
Now what??
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 9 2023 18:26 utc | 32
Julian #30.
I thought nato experts were at least involved in planning since early days, so if Ukraine staff is now gone, maybe this is fully a nato planned op. Somebody did it.
Posted by: John k | Jun 9 2023 18:28 utc | 33
"The Ukrainian forces don't seem to sweep mines in advance of the attack. They do it with a couple of mine clearing vehicles when they attack and behind them the Ukrainian armour advance in a column that is an easy target for Russian AT assets. In a way it resembles the Russian armour columns in the beginning of the war. Columns that took catastrophic losses to Ukrainian AT weapons, a history now repeated by the Ukrainians."
May someone please provided a reasonably reliable number of Russian tank losses at the beginning of the war? I don't expect the Russian military to do everything perfect since mistakes happen, but I'd like to assess if such a number reflects a singular mistake or if there was incompetence at the Russian command.
Posted by: Andres | Jun 9 2023 18:32 utc | 34
The RUAF got the "Kantai Kassen" decisive battle that they probably hoped for. With every variable working for them and pretty much against AFU. I'm sure the main force will be introduced very soon. Gamblers dilemma.
You have to say they did have some clever tactics like shooting air dispersed mines into the assumed reinforcement vectors of RUAF. There is a chance RU might run out of ammo, which could either cause overrun and/or withdrawal to the next defensive line. There are lot of details that aren't available for Mr. Layman.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 18:34 utc | 35
16 - Certainly making a living from journalism in the West.
He mentions the film of the Leopard although spins it as the arrival of NATO equipment. I find with Western MSM that it is necessary to read between the lines to distill anything valuable at all from it, in between the puff pieces for Holy Saint Ukraine and the Cocaine Commandant.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 18:37 utc | 36
12 - I really don't know why they think Western tanks are invincible...
Posted by: Waldorf 20
Press coverage I suppose. For some reason some people get off on pumping up the best tank in the world as being a world beater, when actually it is only incrementally better than the second best. They are all big clunky things that can be hit, and unless it is tank against tank, a little bit better doesn't make much difference.
I have been running on the theory that NATO military commanders are competent. Allowing that NATO has at least an advisory role in this stuff, it is looking incompetent. Too many troops lost if it is reconnaissance in force, and not enough follow up if the desire is for a breakthrough. Mainly just losing equipment and people. Is that the goal? Like to satisfy management they have to prove they can't win?
Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 9 2023 18:37 utc | 37
@ Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 9 2023 16:42 utc | 2
There was video of Russian tank columns getting destroyed by Ukrainian artillery during the initial invasion, before the positions in the north of Ukraine towards Kiev were abandoned. The Russians learned from their mistake and adopted a more conservative strategy. What worked in Syria for them (and barely at that - Russian tanks blew up all the time because of these "thunder runs") didn't work against a military armed to the teeth with artillery and military aircraft.
Posted by: fnord | Jun 9 2023 18:38 utc | 38
@ Pro Risk Player | Jun 9 2023 17:39 utc | 24
The Russky Army are conscripts fighting like it's 1999 Chechnya.
Utter nonsense. Russian army is not a conscript army and SMO is not a war.
Russian soldiers currently in service and drafted on the frontlines are all reserve officers specialised in their combat tools and tasks, far before SMO started. So they upgraded their knowledge and skills, are brought up to the today's task.
Almost no storm troopers or land combat specialists were called up.
For that there are Akhmat and Vagners as PMC.
That is around 150.000 troops.
Added that with 150.000 Russian forces from the last year, added to 50.000 LPR and DPR militias. And then 300.000 came to train and perfect whatever they need. And some extra troops in Belarus around 100.000 or so.
For Russia it is not a war, but a regional military-technical operation at some remote south Western corner of Russian Federation against pretty much retarded enemy, guided and supported by a special needs people acting as decision makers and arms dealers.
@ Inkan1969 | Jun 9 2023 17:48 utc | 25
Yes, you are right. He is basically a late 90's neo-Nazi out of bomber jacket and NPR boots that jumped in a suit, when Nazi's changed the methods of public presence.
The Sweden Democrats' Mikael Valtersson sits on a committee that will give the government proposals on the future air defense. At the same time, he has both private and business contacts with extreme right-wing people from whom SD distances itself. "It's not good," says the committee's secretary Bo Tarras-Wahlberg.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 9 2023 18:38 utc | 39
do we know how is responsible for ukrainian war tactics and strategy besides CINC AFU gen Zahlushy?
maybe the whole structure of command is a big mess because of intermix between ukra, usa england etc...!
Posted by: gpc | Jun 9 2023 18:42 utc | 40
The only possible danger i see of the ukrainian "strategy" right now is they are " using bait to entice their enemy", and the real main thrust will be elsewhere, in conjunction with the NATO exercises.
But I think more likely, the dont have the officers, including zaluzhny and budanov, they are missing a bunch of air defense, possibly hot in the thousands of missile strikes this year, in short, everything they have is a jerry rigged mess being paper clipped together by the military equivalent of kindergartners, because all the high schoolers are dead.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 9 2023 18:45 utc | 41
Soviet no-name miracle weapon
The weapon used here has no proper generic name in the English language. The best description might be anti-track mine.
The original is the WWII German Tellermine. The device gets its name from its plate-like shape. Soviet copies were named TM-46, TM-57, and TM-62. The mine weights about 10 kg and is mainly composed of TNT. Modern versions have a plastic shell, making the mines more difficult to detect.
In Finnish the device is called telamiina, meaning "track mine", but influenced by the German Tellermine. Finnish "bootcamp" would largely consist of running around in full gear carrying two bright yellow plastic 10 kg mockups.
At a roadblock a dozen anti-track mines would be tied together by rope into a chain and pulled over the road or to the side, depending on whether vehicles are allowed to pass. In a fortified line the mines would be dug into the ground, so as not to be seen.
The effect of the mine is to sever the caterpillar tracks of an armored vehicle. Once the tank is immobilized it can be destroyed with other weapons, or maybe captured as a trophy.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 9 2023 18:50 utc | 42
Marvin @18 also Pro Risk Player / whirlX
NATO tactics...
Thanks for your comments though I can't believe this is breach NATO training, at least nothing like the full package. No major artillery bombardment no air support and no EW jamming. US basic version of breach training in the vid, this is not it, nor any sensible derivative, whoever sent these guys in knew it was a suicide trip. Garland Nixon, Andrei Martyanov and Scott Ritter conclude it's something of a show, some kind of lethal sick pantomime (my words). All we can ask is why?
Why? - because ramping up for Vilnius meeting?
Because mass formation war brewers linked to US dollar collapse eased by captive bankrupt europe intertwined with election cycles???
Where is the traction & momentum?
Someone please explain this insanity, the most insane part is I can't see any of our western leaders edging back from this catastrophe.
B thank you so much for bringing some sanity to this lunacy.
Posted by: Mercury | Jun 9 2023 18:53 utc | 43
psychohistorian @8
Two more days until NATO military exercises start.
These exercises on the sidelines of real action would look downright silly. Dive in, tough boys!
Posted by: Nomad | Jun 9 2023 18:55 utc | 44
Biden seems to be signaling that the future money sent to Ukraine will have to go through the appropriations process. They are running out of funds from the US side. That appears to be a major backing away. Dima reported that Z is lookig for a peace deal after going to Kherson and receiveing updates on the offensive. Rumor? Don't know.
If all this is true NATO just wants to buy a few years to rebuild. I think the Russians are aware. Putin may be retiring soon. If so, the real fireworks will begin.
One thing is certain, if NATO exists 100 years from now they will still be trying to break Russia into 100 fiefdomes all fighting each other. Sort of like what Israel had the US do for them in the Mideast
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 9 2023 18:56 utc | 45
36 - They are inevitably going to lose some and have already. It is likely the Russians prioritize destroying German equipment, for historical and propaganda reasons. And getting pics of them.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 18:57 utc | 46
I hope I am mistaken in my recollection that, some months ago, ACTING President Zelenski swore to transform Ukraine into a second Israel.
Because if I'm not mistaken then the best Ukrainians can hope for, even if they win, is to switch from being Ukrainian Ukrainians to Ukrainian Palestians.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 9 2023 19:01 utc | 47
Posted by: Mercury | Jun 9 2023 18:53 utc | 42
It's probably working like designed originally planned. That is, working like it was planned 6 months ago before the massive attrition of Bakhmut, ensuing counter attacks around Bakhmut which failed, and RUAF long range precision strikes with lot of good intel accurately weapon, fuel, supply depots and force concentrations all over the map with pretty much effective inpunity.
They still gathered a force but not as strong as it could've been.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 19:01 utc | 48
37. 'What worked in Syria for the Russians?'
I didn't realize Russians were commanding tanks or losing them in Syria. Now the SAA was, but they sure as shit didn't lose any to 'thunder runs'.. more like ATGMs. You're talking shit.
This modern reenactment of the Chrage of the Light Brigade went exactly as any strategist or military historian worth their salt would tell you it would..its a inhuman debacle resulting in a massacre. A fools errand.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 9 2023 19:08 utc | 49
36 - They are inevitably going to lose some and have already. It is likely the Russians prioritize destroying German equipment, for historical and propaganda reasons. And getting pics of them.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 18:57 utc | 45
I don't think they prioritize hitting anything for propaganda - just whatever they can see rolling forward. For particular reasons, Leopards just happen to be in the line because BMPs and T-72 are non-existent now.
Nato countries like Britain and Germany actually pleaded that Ukraine not use their tanks in the front line, but now there's no choice. They wanted for optics and marketing reasons to break through with first and second wave of USSR legacy equipment, then the Leopards could cruise cleanly through the lines to Crimea and plant the nazi flag.
There was also a report today that T-80 was in a duel with a Leopard, but the Leopard backed away (apparently the Leopard has a very fast reverse gear). Then they got blown up with helicopter ATGMs anyway.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 19:08 utc | 50
No. The Germans did far better on D+3-4 at Kursk, which just about sums up how bad the unfolding catastrophe is for Ukraine.
Couple of points.
1. Gepard was not designed to counter the current spectrum of aerial anti-armour weapons.
2. The columns look remarkably similar to those Russian ones in Ugledar, similar fates for the vehicles?
3. Chemical obscurants are far less effective against widespread TI and drones who can observe ‘past’ the screen
4. NATO have not understood, or tactically accommodated, the impact of drones on assault operations, especially obstacle breaching
5. Russian have a number of weapon systems whose performance parameters will be a best fit if Ukraine intensify their efforts.
6. If the Germans had remote MCV’s in WW2, why doesn’t Ukraine.
7. My suspicion is growing that the West have pressed for an offensive they know the Ukrainians are not trained, equipped or resourced for, to bring this conflict to a rapid conclusion.
8. Following on from 7, if that is the case then perhaps the dam being destroyed was to support an acceptable failure narrative, like the Sicily invasion stopped operation Citadel.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 9 2023 19:09 utc | 51
It reminds me a bit of the Iran-Iraq War in 1982. The Iranians had been successful at driving back the Iraqis, though at high cost, and went on the offensive, including with British-made Chieftain tanks inherited from the Shah's regime. But the offensive was blunted, with for example pictures being shown of an Iranian Chieftain burning in the desert, probably filmed from an Iraqi helicopter.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 19:10 utc | 52
50. I agree. I can't assume or accept that NATO is led by fourth graders with no historical or military knowledge. Thus the conclusion is they're running the Ukrainians straight into the fire hoping to save THEIR PRECIOUS 'FACE'. The Kurklova dam media spin is intended to save the spineless fascist scriveners and bureaucrats who infest our polities from the wrath of the proles.
Such cowardice. So utterly reprehensible. But this indicates Ww3 is probably off the table for a few years at least.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 9 2023 19:18 utc | 53
50 - the Germans captured about 50,000 Red Army soldiers at Kursk, mostly infantry caught in local pincers in the first few days. It was the last time significant numbers of Red Army soldiers were captured in WW2.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 19:18 utc | 54
@ Exile | Jun 9 2023 16:49 utc | 3
Who do you think NATO will attack next year?
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 9 2023 19:22 utc | 55
You need two to meat grinder. Both sides are doing their job.
Posted by: C | Jun 9 2023 19:23 utc | 56
Clusterfuck analysis
The first two damage photos show the same clusterfuck. A column of tanks and IFVs has tried to drive through a line of buried TM-62 anti-track mines. The second photo shows six armored vehicles with labels. At least four of the vehicles have lost their tracks, maybe also the Leopard 2A6. The first photo from ZSU Hunter shows four additional M2A2 Bradleys. This photo is taken at a later time, as it shows track marks that do not appear in the first photo.
It seems that the four additional Bradleys tried to pass the clusterfuck by driving around from the right. Each one in turn hit an anti-track mine and lost a track. A fifth Bradley may also have been disabled, but it is off screen.
Something did however get through. A new track has been bulldozed into the grassland to the right of the cluster (on the left in the photo).
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 9 2023 19:24 utc | 57
reply to 50
I think you make a good point about #7.
The US/EU are stuck with Ukraine and Zelensky in particular. They want to stop their own bleeding (as opposed to Ukraine, who cares?) and get on with China. They can't just demand negotiation now. Insisting on a suicidal offensive may be their only 'honorable' way out.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 9 2023 19:26 utc | 58
Like how the Leopard II, a good tank, is being set up as the fall guy for the failure of the offensive.
The biggest blow to the Ukrainian Army is that the fear factor, generated by the prefix ‘Western’, has been substantially reduced, if not totally removed from the newly mobilised Russian troops. The phrase ‘the ‘Leopard’s are burning’ will have a similar cathartic effect as the ‘Tigers are burning’ headline did in July 1943.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 9 2023 19:27 utc | 59
@Exile 3
There is no such thing or ability.
I don't see how it would be possible for nato to really have "air superiority" or a "no fly zone" even if half the globe away from even non-peer adversaries in 2023.
Sure they could "declare" one but declaring one and not having even a single piece of hardware capable of enforcing it are two different things.
Posted by: NJH | Jun 9 2023 19:29 utc | 60
paddy @ 15
alliance not experienced with first world conflicts.
Let them be trained by the Ukrainians -- those retired librarians snatched from the streets a few months ago and still alive in the trenches. They have enough of real experience by now.
Posted by: Nomad | Jun 9 2023 19:34 utc | 61
Meanwhile ukraine has made progress around bahkmut and adveeka, at least tactically. So far we have verified a handful of dead nato vehicles, hundreds, thousands if you add the lighter ones.
Seriously how can a pro russian viewpoint start declaring victory so soon? The danger is still very high. Has everyone lost their memories? Russia has three times already left rather than fight in this war.
To be fair it looks positive for russia defences but the blind arrogance of pro russian people is astounding. Get a grip. It's going to take all summer before the results are in.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 9 2023 19:39 utc | 62
That is to say there are thousands of Ukrainian war vehicles left
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 9 2023 19:40 utc | 63
Many on the Ukrainian and western side had anticipated hard initial resistance from RuAF, but after 2-3 days fighting and advances of around 6-8 km, they expected an increasing collapse of Russian morale and the real breakthroughs would come. Nothing of this seems to be other than wishful thinking, since fighting still are in the gray zone and Russian resistance are unbroken.
The US/NATO didn't and doesn't fathom that the Russian morale will not collapse. The reason being that any attack from the "west" is by the Nazis. And, the Nazis must be stopped!
So, the morale will not collapse. There's nowhere to retreat, behind us is Rodina.
This is something, no one in the "west" or the Ukie banderites fathom.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 19:41 utc | 64
61 neofuedal, what are you talking about? Who are you chastising. Pro russisn blogosphere, as well ad RuMoD has clearly stated "now is not the time to throw our caps in the air" and there is still a massive force of 600 tsnks in waiting.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 9 2023 19:50 utc | 65
I'll merely add that Russian drones clearly are hardened against the EW modes used to disable Ukie drones and whatever EW modes the Ukies employ. My earlier comments on tactics and results don't need any further modification.
I will note that the massive vilification of Russian military abilities--their "manhood"--has greatly motivated the frontline troops to the point where their morale level is close to being unbreakable--one man is the equal to 5-10 of the enemy. And when you see your enemy floundering in your minefields and getting hit by your airpower, your motivation increases even more.
As for the NATO FTX, again look at where it's to occur. I stand by what I wrote earlier: To tilt the battle in the Ukie favor, NATO would need to go all in with everything it has beginning with its air force; and even then, I don't think that will be enough.
“Mikael Valtersson was a defense politician for the Sweden Democrats. That's a right wing and nationalist party, Sweden's equivalent to Azov.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Jun 9 2023 17:48 utc | 25”
Now tell us how that invalidates his observations and ananysis.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 9 2023 19:53 utc | 67
Re: Ugledar
@Milites | Jun 9 2023 19:09 utc | 502. The columns look remarkably similar to those Russian ones in Ugledar, similar fates for the vehicles?
The battle for Ugledar happened in the winter of 2014/15. I was in Ugledar in the summer of 2016.
There is a video out there somewhere on the Internet, where I try to explain (in Finnish) and point out where each of the tanks attacked from and where they were were hit. The Novorossiyans approached from the west over a field. Some 300 meters before the railway crossing they crossed a line of TM-62 anti-track mines. Three main battle tanks, T-64s and T-72s, lost their tracks and sat abandoned side by side on the snow-covered field. The4 Ukrainians may have been able to take them as trophies.
On the main street, east of the railway crossing at least one main battle tank was destroyed and totally burnt out. I do not which side it was from.
***
Russia, ie. the Russian Federation was not involved in the civil war in 2014/2015. But people have started using the word "Russia" as a shorthand for "Collective Russia". But remember, that also Ukraine, or at least large parts of it are also part of this Collective Russia. Maybe I will start speaking of the "Anti-Genocide forces" when speaking about the events in Ukraine, just to emphasize the fact that "Russia" ≠ RF.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 9 2023 19:54 utc | 68
Zaporizhia Orekhovsky Front began a powerful artillery preparation by the enemy.
A harbinger of another attack from the enemy. The guys are ready and waiting for the German to enter the strike square.
As always, it is the Nazis attacking the Russian lands.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 19:54 utc | 69
Agreed karlof, prigozin's rant about thru military being wimps was a motivation speech and a dare, as well as his public humiliation of those who fled. He knows how to get both nato and russian press to amplify his statements worldwide.
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 9 2023 19:56 utc | 70
The destroyed leopard 2 footage is clearly fake. It is just 4k resolution, it is so blurry you can't figure out anything. Can't tell whether it is a leopard or a just a moped. It is just Arma 3 gameplay, trust me I am a truck driver I am an expert in this stuff.
Posted by: A200 | Jun 9 2023 19:57 utc | 71
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Jun 9 2023 17:10 utc | 13
Russia pre-empted the CIA announced false flag with a distraction effort that got enough artillery between Donbas civilians and Ukrainian dug in artillery to prevent the slaughter of the Donbas. Without the Donbas hostages, Nato was lost.
This is an aspect seldom covered. Though Putin mentioned the need to protect the Donbass several times that aspect is not mentioned in most Western accounts.
A commenter elsewhere has set up a "Drop box" specifically for details of the start of the SMO and for the period just before.
Would it be possible for you to place an expanded version of your comment there?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 9 2023 19:58 utc | 72
I am a truck driver I am an expert in this stuff.
Posted by: A200 | Jun 9 2023 19:57 utc | 70
------------
Truck drivers are experts at picking up tarts... :) Maybe Ukie tarts...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 19:59 utc | 73
@64 just trying to keep some perspective. I remember after russia got blasted at ugledar there was waves of cheering in the pro Ukrainian camp, but really russia never was pushed away from ugledar, they're still right there.
There's been a lot of ukraine is finished now posts as well in MoA, with people vigorously agreeing, but none of that was true either.
There's bound to be surprises here. Nasty ones for both sides.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 9 2023 20:03 utc | 74
Have Russians hidden their true military acumen until now, or has their army (artillery?) really gone through a lot of improvement? Of course, I'm aware what Martyanov would say. It's always been there, some were just too ignorant to see it.
I kind of remember tons of videos – last autumn and before – where Russian "hits" on enemy vehicles landed meters away from their target. Not so anymore.
Is the difference real, if so, where does it come from?
Posted by: js | Jun 9 2023 20:04 utc | 75
Military summary/Dima has some details of the clashes in Mala Tokmachka. The close air support is based nearby enabling a lot of sorties and continuous attack, there's an intersupporting and overlapping grid of defensive fortifications which can attack AFU vehicles from multiple directions with ATGM, and artillery.
AFU strategy was to attack from Mala Tokmachka between the western and eastern zone of more dense fortifications.
Also Lobkove was some inconsequential attack. Attacks on Vremivka bridgehead but no changes.
According to some preliminary data AFU tried to attack Vodiane and Opytne near Avdeevka but hasn't gained anything. Same story north of Avdeevka at Krasnogorivka.
Near ARtemovsk AFU is close to Berkhivka, south of the water reservoir.
AFU activity near Belgorod is significantly reduced. Supposedly Wagner will start some sort of clearing south of Belgorod, on the UA side of border.
Very strong explosion in Uman on ammo depot.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 20:04 utc | 76
For months, most of the predictions of success for the Ukie offensive have been based on one expectation - that the first breakthrough on Russian lines would cause the Ruskies to 'panic' and run. Based on nothing more than wishful thinking, it would appear. Now the Russians are showing "greater than expected resistance" and blowing up lots of western armor. The Ukies trained under NATO doctrine which presumes air superiority or at least air cover. Problem is, Ukraine doesn't have a functioning air force.
And the capper is that Ukrainian strategy for the offensive is attrition, when their losses are far greater and Russia has superiority in troop numbers, artillery, armor, everything. It reminds me of the story of the boxer, who, badly mauled after a prizefight, noted that he blocked most of his opponent's punches with his face. I'm just wondering, when does Ukraine have a 'come to Jesus' moment when they realize that their army is about to be destroyed and look for a way out? Or is the country completely at the mercy of the US/West's plans, which appear to be the utter destruction of Ukraine?
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 9 2023 20:04 utc | 77
Of course, I'm aware what Martyanov would say. It's always been there, some were just too ignorant to see it.
Posted by: js | Jun 9 2023 20:04 utc | 74
............................
Martyanov is a fraud. He doesn't even have any connection with Russia or his former country Azerbaijan.
Posted by: rk | Jun 9 2023 20:09 utc | 78
If these attacks fail, the elite massed follow up forces might never be committed. Mightn't it be better to allow them to penetrate so they commit their follow up forces? Let them advance. Encourage them to fully commit their best troops and armor. Pull them into a cauldron, mass your forces and destroy them. If there are no real breakthroughs the massed follow up forces may never be committed and can be used to fight another day.
Posted by: Richard | Jun 9 2023 20:09 utc | 79
Anyone, who attacks from the western side of the RF border are Nazis. The Nazis have to be stopped and destroyed.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 20:13 utc | 80
There was video of Russian tank columns getting destroyed by Ukrainian artillery during the initial invasion, before the positions in the north of Ukraine towards Kiev were abandoned. The Russians learned from their mistake and adopted a more conservative strategy. What worked in Syria for them (and barely at that - Russian tanks blew up all the time because of these "thunder runs") didn't work against a military armed to the teeth with artillery and military aircraft.
Posted by: fnord | Jun 9 2023 18:38 utc | 37
The video I saw was in Bucha. Russian tanks were in a line driving down the street, the Ukrainians had the coordinates dialed in. Many direct hits. Believe the Russians left a few days later, then the real shitshow began.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 9 2023 20:13 utc | 81
Posted by: Richard | Jun 9 2023 20:09 utc | 78
Theoretically maybe, but in reality you would want to take full advantage of your pre-positioned interlocking stronghold points. After / if they don't commit rest of those forces, we're back to the regular SloMo attrition program. And Nato will take another 8 months to gather a new attack force, during which RU won't sit idly still either.
Anne Applebaums new article headline was really telling of Nato planning strategy:
"The real purpose of the Ukrainian offensive is to show the Russians the war is not worth fighting".
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 20:14 utc | 82
Following on from 7, if that is the case then perhaps the dam being destroyed was to support an acceptable failure narrative, like the Sicily invasion stopped operation Citadel.
Posted by: Milites | Jun 9 2023 19:09 utc | 50
---------------------------------------------------
Ouch! Very plausible, including #52, 'a precious face saving move' for the Western War Mongers. OTOH, Icky Vicky nor Blinken could have thought of it.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 9 2023 20:15 utc | 83
Anne Applebaums new article headline was really telling of Nato planning strategy:
"The real purpose of the Ukrainian offensive is to show the Russians the war is not worth fighting".
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 9 2023 20:14 utc | 81
-----------------------
Anne Applebaum is the wife of a Polish politico Radoslaw Sikorsky, a diehard rusofob.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 20:17 utc | 84
77 - Is he one of those Armenians who left Azerbaijan after events like the Sumgait massacre?
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 20:20 utc | 86
This "Counter-offensive" was Kursk 2.0 and Bakhmut was Stalingrad 2.0.
So based on that timeline we await Operation Bagration 2.0 in a month or two.
Posted by: Tom Ernest Weiss | Jun 9 2023 20:22 utc | 87
Kursk involved over 780,000 German troops and over 1.4 million Russians. The Germans had nearly 3,000 tanks and the Russians over 5,000. Both sides used thousands of aircraft.
The fighting was on a wholly different scale.
Posted by: Tom Welsh | Jun 9 2023 20:22 utc | 88
Zaporozhye direction, Orekhovo - Rabotino,
There will be a massacre again tonight...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 20:22 utc | 89
87 - Yes, totally different scale. Like at Kursk, the Red Army could lose c.50,000 troops as POWs in the early German advances and still win.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 20:26 utc | 90
ah guys, everyone plant a tree lets get this place a better one :)
cheers this f* up is at least soon over
Posted by: Macpott | Jun 9 2023 20:27 utc | 91
#16
Thanks for the link. A shockingly bad article but some of the comments were surprisingly spot on and had the most likes compared to the ukie bots.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Jun 9 2023 20:28 utc | 92
As I read comments and what is going on it looks like maybe empire is trying to set up a stalemate situation and expect to sell the idea to "the world" for support to make Russia back off its initial goals of the SMO and freeze the conflict.
Any stalemate, if achieved, will only hold until the neutron bomb of an alternative "Reserve Currency" is introduced in August by the BRICS+, hopefully....
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 9 2023 20:31 utc | 93
Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is stepping down as a member of parliament with immediate effect.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 20:31 utc | 94
"it's something of a show, some kind of lethal sick pantomime..."
I wonder if it - supremely cynically - is deliberately meant to fail so to create momentum for direct NATO intervention, as both the west's escalation logic and rhetoric leads exactly there. The Ukrainian leadership and their neocon sponsors appear to have been relying on such from the very start.
Posted by: jayc | Jun 9 2023 20:31 utc | 95
Kudos to the site owner for posting this; it quarantines usefully all of the largely pointless comparisons of the current situation with WWII battles. May those comparisons exhaust themselves once and for all.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 9 2023 20:31 utc | 96
76 - I don't see hardcore fascists having a "come to Jesus" moment. Despite the pitch to intense nationalism they are being manipulated by foreign forces but are too blind to see it.
They could have a political crisis some time down the road, of the kind they hope Russia will have.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 9 2023 20:32 utc | 97
@87 This is a pale imitation of the WW2 Eastern Front since both sides don't have the surplus male population for a full replay.
Still, the pattern seems to be similar. The West strikes first, takes Ukraine (Nuland's cookies), then Russia draws a line (Bakhmut), fights off a last-ditch offensive (what we are watching now) and wins in the end (upcoming Russian offensive?).
Posted by: Tom Ernest Weiss | Jun 9 2023 20:32 utc | 98
Ah well, the Battle of Kursk. I remember that, it was very intense and nerve wracking (in the game Sudden Strike 4). No need to ever do it again.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jun 9 2023 20:35 utc | 99
White House anxiously watches Ukraine’s counteroffensive, seeing the war and Biden’s reputation at stake - Politico
Senior U.S. officials are convinced that future support for the Ukraine war — and President Joe Biden’s global reputation — hinges on the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Succeed and Western military and economic aid will flow. Stumble or fail to meet expectations, and that support will likely dry up, sparking heightened calls for an expedited diplomatic resolution and hampering one of the White House’s signature international achievements.
Rest here, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/biden-ukraine-counteroffensive-00101088
Posted by: ostro | Jun 9 2023 20:36 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Ukie crack suicide squads in action. Following NATO doctrine that relies on air cover, with no air cover.
Posted by: GT Stroller | Jun 9 2023 16:41 utc | 1