Last December the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, talked with The Economist. He asked for more weapons which, he said, would allow him to throw the Russian forces out of Ukraine:

I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.

Some seemed to believe his talk. Following the request Ukraine received more or less all of what it had requested. Ukraine then loudly announced a counter-offensive but took several months before launching it. In the meantime it threw all available resources into a useless battle to hold onto the city of Bakhmut against the steady advance of the Wagner mercenary forces. That fight alone cost the Ukraine some 70,000 casualties. Meanwhile the Russian army engineers were building multiple reinforced defense lines which any counter-offensive will now have to overcome.

At the beginning of June, under pressure for the U.S., the Ukrainian army finally launched its counteroffensive. It was a dud. The Ukrainian troops entered the Russian security zone miles away from the real defense lines and immediately ran into mine fields and came under intense artillery fire. After 4 weeks of fighting they 'liberated' some 50 square miles of open land and a few small settlements. This came at significant costs:

There were fewer than 50 men in the unit, he said, and 30 did not return — they were killed, wounded or captured by the enemy. Five of the unit’s armored vehicles were destroyed within the first hour.
…
For the first hour and a half of the 37th’s assault near Velyka Novosilka, the Russians bombarded the unit with nonstop shelling that penetrated their AMX-10 RC armored vehicles, according to Grey, another soldier in the battalion who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign. The armored vehicles, sometimes called “light tanks,” were not heavy enough to protect the soldiers, Grey said, and had to be positioned behind them instead of in front.
…
“Everyone expected that we would have some kind of support, but unfortunately, for some reason, there was none,” Lumberjack said. His commander had little experience, he said, and had counted on assistance from artillery units. “But he got confused when he saw that there was none.”

At this speed it will take the Ukraine many years of fighting and an unlimited supply of weapons and men to kick the Russians out:

To put the matter in perspective: Today, Russia controls about 17 percent of the territory that was previously Ukraine’s. If Ukrainian forces are no more successful in the weeks ahead than they have been so far, Ukraine will not recapture all of its territory for 16 years.

Over the last months I used a spreadsheet to list and sum up the Ukrainian casualties as they are listed in the daily reports of the Defense Ministry of Russia. These numbers are likely a bit too high but by what percentage, 10 or 20%, is hard to say.

From June 1 to June 30 the numbers sum up to: 313 tanks, 815 Infantry Fighting Vehicles and other armored vehicles, 313 howitzer and other long range artillery systems. The Ukraine also lost some 21,900 men which gives an average of 730 per day.

During the month the Russian air defense claimed to have shot down 15 Ukraine planes, 5 helicopters, 200 HIMARS and 20 Storm Shadow 'wonder weapon' missiles. Those numbers do not include the significant damage Russia has done to defense repair shops, weapon and ammunition depots all over Ukraine with its constant long range missile attacks.

In total the Ukraine lost in one months more than Zaluzhny requested back in December and more than it has received during the time since.

In the Washington Post Zaluzhny is back and begging for more weapons:

For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to progress faster, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s armed forces, says he needs more — of every weapon. And he is telling anyone who will listen, including his American counterpart Gen. Mark A. Milley as recently as Wednesday, that he needs those resources now.

In a rare, wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post, Zaluzhny expressed frustration that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians. American-made F-16s, promised only recently, are not likely to arrive until the fall — in a best-case scenario.

His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources.

Zaluzhny wants F-16s and more ammunition but also more of 'every weapon'. Here are the problems.

When Zaluzhny will get his F-16s he will immediately learn that the Russian Su-35 is by far superior to them. Its radar can see farther than the F-16's and its long range over-the-horizon missiles can kill the F-16s before they even have a chance to fire their own ones.

The 'west' is currently unable to produce as much ammunition as Ukraine wants to fire. And while the U.S. still has some Bradleys and Abrams battle tanks in its reserves the depots for 'every weapon' in other NATO countries are already empty. There are no more tanks, armored vehicles or howitzers they could give away.

In total there simply is not enough to replace the losses the Ukraine has on a daily base. Meanwhile Russia is already producing more of every weapon than its military needs for its daily operations.

There is no way the Ukraine can win this fight or even hold on to its current positions. That was easy to foresee and predict. Those who urged Ukraine on should be condemned for the murderous slaughter they caused.

Ukraine needs to make peace with Russia. Yes, it will come with conditions that are not easy to swallow. Still, there is no other way out.

To continue the fight, with ever increasing losses of men and land, is not a sustainable alternative.

With regards to China President Joe Biden said on June 20 2023:

And the reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two boxcars full of spy equipment in it is he didn’t know it was there. No, I’m serious. That’s what’s a great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn’t know what happened. That wasn’t supposed to be going where it was. It was blown off course up through Alaska and then down through the United States. And he didn’t know about it. When it got shot down, he was very embarrassed. He denied it was even there.

I commented that:

Biden acknowledges that the weather balloon was 'blow off course' and thereby debunks previous claims that it was steerable. China had no intent to let the balloon cross Canada and the United States. And if there had really been 'two boxcars full of spy equipment' on the balloon why hasn't the U.S. shown any of it?

Why would or should a president of the U.S. or China know of some weather balloon floating somewhere?

Xi was embarrassed by the circus the U.S. made over that affair?
…
Xi denied that the ballon was where it was to whom? And the U.S. would know about that how?

There were so many questions about those 'spy balloon' claims that, from the very beginning, I was sure and said that it was all bunk:

Cont. reading: The Over-Hyped ‘Spy’ Balloon That Didn’t

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The current open thread for other issues here.

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News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

Updated below – June 29, 13:55 UTC

There is still some fallout from the Prigozhin affair.

The U.S. propaganda campaign that falsely claims that Russia has been weakened by Wagner's armed mutiny continues. While citing only 'western' intelligence affiliated sources the Washington Post headlines Putin’s standing as global strongman in jeopardy after revolt. Where please is evidence for that?

The New York Times assists in a useless attempt to sow fear and doubt on the Russian side:

A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin of course knew that something was up with Wagner. The whole Russian leadership knew of it. Orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down and to let Prigozhin do what he had planned to do.

There was zero action taken by the border guards, the internal security force Rosguardia, by the police and the Russian military. That is unexplainable unless there was an order from very high up to step back instead of seeking a fight. President Putin's primary aim was to avoid unnecessary casualties which he largely achieved.

One miscalculation happened. Wagner had a mobile Pantsir-1 air defense system that tried to cover its convoys on their trip towards Moscow. Several Russian helicopters and a plane where shot down when they came too near to them. It seems that the Pantsirs were a surprise.

Wagner was not supposed to have them:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Prigozhin Affair – Kramatorsk Missile Attack – Updated

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On Sunday the U.S.Secretary of State went on four morning shows to play the same distinct melody over and over again:

Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Margaret Brennan of CBS Face the Nation

SECRETARY BLINKEN: And it was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions. It shows real cracks. We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s going to go. We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead.
…
SECRETARY BLINKEN: These create more cracks in the Russian façade, and those cracks were already profound. Economically, militarily, its standing in the world – all of those things have been dramatically diminished by Putin’s aggression against Ukraine. He’s managed to bring Europe together. He’s managed to bring NATO together. He’s managed to get Europe to move off of Russian energy. He’s managed to alienate Ukrainians and unite Ukraine at the same time. So across the board this has been a strategic failure. Now you introduce into that profound internal divisions, and there are lots of questions he’s going to have to answer in the weeks ahead.

Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Chuck Todd of NBC Meet The Press

SECRETARY BLINKEN: … So I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade. It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there. But certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.
…
This is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that Putin has written for himself and for Russia. Economically, militarily, its standing in the world – all of things have plummeted. We have a united NATO that’s stronger than ever before, a Europe that is weaning itself off of Russian energy, Ukraine that Putin has managed to alienate and unite at the same time. Now, with trouble brewing from within, this, as I said, just adds more questions that he has to find answers for.

Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Dana Bash of CNN State of the Union

Cont. reading: How To Plant Propaganda: “Putin has been weakened. Russia is crumbling.”

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The Prigozhin's insurrection farce is over. I had predicted that it would not take long to end:

In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.

About eight hours after I published the above Prigozhin had given up and left the scene.

Prigozhin had launched his hopeless mutiny after the Defense Ministry had demanded that all his men sign contacts with the Russian army. That would have taken away the autonomy of his Wagner outlet and with it a large chunk of his profits. The run of his troops towards Moscow was a desperate attempt to get Putin's attention and to make him reverse the ministry's plans.

To justify his move Prigozhin had claimed that Russian miliary forces had attacked a Wagner camp and killed a number of its troops. To prove that he published a video that shows some trash in the woods but no dead soldiers. It was an obvious fake.

Putin had already publicly agreed to the ministry's plans and he is not the man who reverses his decisions on a dime, or under pressure. After Putin's Saturday morning TV speech, during which he accused Prigozhin of treason without naming him, it was clear that there was no chance for the mutiny to have any success. Many of Russia's governors and high ranking military soon assured Putin publicly of their loyalty.

As far as is known none of Wagner's military commanders and only a few thousand of its 25,000 troops had joined Prigozhin in his lunatic run. No one in Russia changed sides or supported him. When the Wagner troops entered Rostov on the Don the people who talked with his soldiers were critical of their presence. When Wagner were leaving without further bloodshed the people applauded. To interpret that as support for Prigozhin, as some 'western' analysts did, is false. The people were just happy that the whole stunt was over.

Finally the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, likely on request from Putin, got Prigozhin on the phone, used some very strong words and negotiated a deal. If Prigozhin goes into exile in Belarus he will not be bothered any further. But the Russian prosecutors will not yet close the treason case against him. Should he again make a hassle he will likely end up in jail.

Cont. reading: Prigozhin’s Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won

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Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• June 20 – U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China
  Related:
  – Boom or boomlet in US manufacturing investment? – Asia Times
  – Bill Black and Michael Hudson on Corruption in Finance – Naked Capitalism
  – U.S. reading and math scores drop to lowest level in decades – NPR

• June 21 – And Then Biden Blew It …
  Related:
  – What the West Gets Wrong About China – Harvard Business Revue
  – Blinken offers lessons on how not to handle China – Asia Times
  – US ‘not keen on’ better China ties, as New York think tank makes clear call to arm Taiwan – SCMP

• June 22 – More Weapons Go To Ukraine But What Will It Do With Those?
• June 23 – The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Had No Chance. NATO Failed To Explain That.
  Related:
  – Ukraine’s dreams of rebuilding run into reality of soaring costs – Washington Post
  – IAEA: No mines observed near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s cooling pond – MSN
  – The Truth About Ukraine’s Failing Counteroffensive And The Peace That Could Have Been – The Federalist

• June 24 – On Prigozhin's Insurrection Farce
  Related:
  – The rise and fall of a Russian oligarch – Indian Punchline
  – Here are the Zelensky ‘treason’ quotes the Washington Post deleted (archived) – RT.com
  – From Pugachev To Lebed – The Muzhik Rebellion Fizzles Out Without Bloodshed, Prigozhin to Exile – John Helmer

Terror Alarm @Terror_Alarm – 19:35 UTC · Jun 23, 2023
🚨🇷🇺 BREAKING: Russia attacks PMC Wagner.
Moscow strikes kill a huge number of Wagner forces.
PMC Wagners are now considered Freedom Fighters and can ask the Free World for support.

Terror Alarm @Terror_Alarm – 0:59 UTC · Jun 24, 2023
🚨🇷🇺 "Wagner forces are coming to take Moscow and we are going to have a new President soon" – Wagner freedom fighters

Terror Alarm @Terror_Alarm – 18:19 UTC · Jun 24, 2023
🚨🇷🇺 Wagner terrorists reach a ceasefire deal with Moscow.

Terror Alarm @Terror_Alarm – 21:12 UTC · Jun 24, 2023
🚨🇷🇺 The moment Wagner chief terrorist Prigozhin betrays the Free World and leaves Rostov.

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-149

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Some thoughts on the ongoing insurrection attempt in Russia.

I wonder who or what lured Yevgeny Prigozhin into staging this farce.

In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.

'Western' anal-cysts will spend weeks fantasizing about their wished for outcome which, of course, was never to happen.

The whole story reminds me of Machiavelli's warning against mercenaries:

I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed.

Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and [one’s own] destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, that they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. …
…
I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms [i.e., mercenaries]. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain [i.e., the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are ruined in the usual way [i.e., you will lose the war].

The 'west' pushed Ukraine into a hopeless counter-offensive based on false assessments and wild expectations.

Russian troops were claimed to be weak, untrained and unprepared for an Ukrainian attack. On the other side it was claimed that the freshly mobilized Ukrainian men which received 'western' weapons and training would have the necessary quantity and quality to overcome Russian defenses.

Ukrainian troops, as well as the public, were told to believe that bullshit.

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo – 0:55 UTC · Jun 23, 2023

NATO training explained by an Ukrainian POW
-> Psychologists trained them to not be afraid and that Russia is exhausted and weak …
Embedded video From Maimunka News

bigger

Any rational and neutral military assessment showed a far more realistic picture. One in which Russia would always defeat the planned counter-offensive.

Cont. reading: The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Had No Chance. NATO Failed To Explain That.

Ukraine's counter-offensive has failed and it has no chance of a victory in the war.

Its best possibility to still sustain for a while is to now build several new defense lines and to pull back to those. Instead it is continuing to attack on too many fronts with little gains and large losses.

Yesterday the Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation with his Security Council.

Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Council, reported on Ukrainian losses:

As of today, we have the following statistics. From June 4 to 21, we destroyed 246 tanks, including 13 Western tanks, as well as 595 armoured combat vehicles and armoured cars. Of this number, we have destroyed 152 infantry fighting vehicles, including 59 Western models, as well as 443 other armoured combat vehicles. We have destroyed 279 field artillery systems and mortars, including 48 Western systems. We have also destroyed 42 multiple launch rocket systems, 2 surface-to-air missile systems, 10 tactical fighters, 4 helicopters, 264 drones and 424 motor vehicles.

Those numbers are a bit below the sums in my spreadsheet as given by the daily report of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I believe that Patrushev's sums are probably four or five days old. Patrushev gives the number of dead Ukrainians as 13,000 along all fronts. That is again a bit below my sums and likely behind in time.

Putin then asks his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:

Cont. reading: More Weapons Go To Ukraine But What Will It Do With Those?

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The talks Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had in China were somewhat useful. On his way out he at least used the right words on Taiwan:

'We do not support Taiwan independence,' America's top diplomat said in Beijing after meeting with Chinese president Xi Jingping.

The U.S. had practically begged for the meeting and that it took place is itself a small success:

To stabilise their relations, China and the United States must first arrest a downward spiral. That may turn out to be the achievement of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s talks with Chinese leaders in Beijing. It was unrealistic to expect any more just now. The negative fundamentals of the relationship remain the same. Both sides described Blinken’s talks with Foreign Minister Qin Gang and top diplomat Wang Yi as “candid” – meaning very frank. But they paved the way for a meeting between Blinken and President Xi Jinping, which did no harm to hopes for a Xi- Joe Biden summit.

Along with Qin’s acceptance of an invitation to Washington, that suggests the two sides found some common ground – particularly the need for more stable ties and to reduce the risk of military conflict.

Then, within just 24 hours, President Biden blew it:

Cont. reading: And Then Biden Blew It …

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Confronted with the realities of life the Biden administration has in the last days acknowledged defeat in two on its most egregious and delusional foreign policy games.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. Its army is getting slaughtered on the battlefield. The ‘counteroffensive’ of the ‘NATO trained’ Ukrainian brigades has made no real progress on any front. The high level of losses of men and material make it impossible that it will ever again regain the initiative.

The U.S. aim was to integrate the Ukraine into NATO. It would then have been able to station U.S. troops in Ukraine and to put its weapons into reach of Moscow so that any independent Russian move could be countered with a threat of imminent annihilation.

After more than 20 years of pursuing that aim the U.S. threw the towel:

President Biden on Saturday said he won’t make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO, adding that the country at war with Russia has to meet the requirements to be a member.

“They got to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier,” Biden told reporters. “I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of is their system secure? Is it noncorrupt? Does it meet all the standards … every other nation in NATO does.”

And yes, that is a change. A big one:

Biden has reportedly previously expressed that he is open to removing the Member Action Plan hurdle for Ukraine to join NATO, which requires countries that want to join the alliance make reforms militarily and democratically.

Still, it is not enough:

Cont. reading: U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China

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