Ukraine SitRep: Delayed Counteroffensive, Russian Defense Lines, Weapon Efficiency
Two weeks ago the Biden administration had recognized that the announced Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' will fail to make much progress.
The operation has still not started and Zelensky has moved its launch further into the future:
Speaking at his headquarters in Kyiv, President Zelensky described combat brigades, some of which were trained by Nato countries, as being "ready" but said the army still needed "some things", including armoured vehicles that were "arriving in batches"."With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful," he said in an interview for public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, like the BBC. "But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time."
Time will not prevent that any counteroffensive will lead to high casualty rates. In fact, waiting longer means more attacks on the troops in their current positions. Any detected agglomeration of forces or material is already coming under long range Russian missile fire.
As the counteroffensive is destined to fail the Biden administration is out to move the goal posts. In Foreign Affairs two of its MIC propagandists, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, demand to prepare for a much longer war:
Policymakers, however, have placed undue emphasis on the upcoming offensive without providing sufficient consideration of what will come afterward and whether Ukraine is well positioned for the next phase. It is critical that Ukraine’s Western partners develop a long-term theory of victory for Ukraine, since even in the best-case scenario, this upcoming offensive is unlikely to end the conflict. Indeed, what follows this operation could be another period of indeterminate fighting and attrition, but with reduced ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. This is already a long war, and it is likely to become protracted. History is an imperfect guide, but it suggests wars that endure for more than a year are likely to go on for at least several more and are exceedingly difficult to end. A Western theory of success must therefore prevent a situation in which the war drags on, but where Western countries are unable to provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage.
The delusion is strong in that assessment. A 'theory of victory' or 'success' is just that - a theory. Ukraine does not have the personnel to sustain a longer war. Nor does the 'west' have any spare weapons that could give the Ukraine a 'decisive advantage'.
Still the cue was picked up Ukraine's foreign minister Dmitro Kuleba (machine translation):
If Ukraine does not succeed in its counteroffensive against the aggressor country Russia, it will prepare for the next one.This was stated by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with Bild published on May 10.
He urged "not to consider this counteroffensive as the last one" - "because we do not know what will come of it."
Kuleba noted that if Ukraine succeeds in its counteroffensive against Russia in liberating its territories, "in the end you will say: "Yes, it was the last one," but if not, then you need to prepare for the next counteroffensive."
Kuleba is already asking for weapons for the next 'counteroffensive' to be launched after the currently announced one fails.
Dreizin published an alleged 'battle plan' for a Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' in the Zaporozhia front:
(1) Break through the Russian forward defense along the line Nesterianka-Novosyolovka (6km and 19km southeast of Orekhov, respectively) into the defense depth of Guards battalions in the Polozhsk-Orekhov sector, utilizing, in the first echelon, the 47th and 65th Separate Mechanized Brigades, 9th Army Corps (total of 2 tank and 7 infantry battalions—8300 men with up to 60 tanks, up to 200 other armored fighting vehicles, up to 110 field pieces and mortars, 12 MLRS, up to 100 motor rafts.) Breakthrough of the contact line will be in the order of the 65th which is already on the line, then the 47th. Neighboring units including the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade will carry the task of harrying neighboring Russian units so as to prevent reinforcement of Russian forces at the main axis of advance.
(2) Subsequently, deploy the main forces. The main blow is to be from the vicinity of Orekhov, in the direction of Tokmak, ultimately towards Melitopol’. ...
From the point of strategic value the chosen target is the right one. However, it is also the one where the Russian military has prepared its strongest defense lines.
Source: @Inkvisiit, Scribblemaps - bigger
In military books this is know as 'echeloned defense' with three lines of well prepared positions ten kilometer apart from each other. Each line consists of tank obstacles, mine belts, prepared anti-tank positions to monitor and counter potential breach attempts and well prepared artillery support from behind the next defense line.
bigger
To crack such a nut without air support and without significant artillery advantage is nearly impossible.
It is why I think that the Zaporozhia region may not be the real target of the counteroffensive. All the talk about it may well be a diversion. The least prepared front is in the area south of Kherson.
Source: @Inkvisiit, Scribblemaps - bigger
But to get there would require a difficult river crossing of the Dnieper which will also limit supply lines. This would be a high risk attempt which might gain some ground. But whatever would be won would soon be lost again as any river crossing would come under sustained artillery fire.
There may well be other obstacles for launching the announced 'counteroffensive'. It is rumored that the commander of the Ukrainian army, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, was wounded or killed during a recent Russian missile strike in Dnipro. He has not been seen since and he did not take part in a recent NATO meeting where his expected presence had been announced.
Apropos NATO:
NEXTA @nexta_tv - 7:29 UTC · May 11, 2023U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command spokesman Martin O'Donnell said that #Ukraine received about 600 types of weapons for the counteroffensive - more than any one army in the world has.
What army can handle 600 different weapons systems with all the implied training, maintenance, spare part and ammunition supply issues? None can do that. But O'Donnell is proud of providing a zoo of weapons which are incompatible to each other.
The shells for the British L118 light gun, the French AMX 10 reconnaissance tanks, the German Leopard 1 tanks and the U.S./Lithuanian M101 Light Howitzer all have a nominal diameter of 105 mm. But they are all incompatible to each other. Just imagine the logistic screw ups that will inevitably happen when the Ukrainian front line troops will request additional 105mm ammunition supplies.
The UK has delivered the export version of the Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. These have a reach of some 250 kilometer and can be fired from the 'westernized' Su-24 airplanes that Poland sent to the Ukraine.
They seem to be part of a new NATO talking point to excuse the inability to deliver more weapon:
The war in Ukraine will increasingly be a battle between large numbers of poorly trained Russian troops with outdated equipment and a smaller Ukrainian force with better Western weapons and training, NATO's top military official said on Wednesday.
Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO's military committee, noted Russia was now deploying significant numbers of T-54 tanks - an old model designed in the years after World War Two.
"But the problem is they still have a lot of T-54s. So ... in terms of numbers, quantity, it is an issue," Bauer told reporters after a meeting of the alliance's national military chiefs at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The T-54 are used by Russia as immobile anti-tank guns dug into the defense lines, not as mobile main battle tanks. Russia still has plenty of newer T-72 and T-90 models for that and no need to replace those.
The Storm Shadow may deliver some success - up to the day the Russian military has finds a way to prevent that. Like all previously announced wonder weapons it will also disappoint.
Just look at the much hyped HIMARS missiles. According to leaked Pentagon documents the Ukrainian military fires on average some 13 HIMARS missiles per day. Over the last two month the Russian clobber report listed an average of 6 HIMARS missiles per day as eliminated by Russian air defenses. The rest of the missiles get diverted by electronic warfare measures:
[I]n recent months, the systems have been rendered increasingly less effective by the Russians’ intensive blocking, five US, British and Ukrainian sources tell CNN, forcing US and Ukrainian officials to find ways to tweak the HIMARS’ software to counter the evolving Russian jamming efforts.“It is a constant cat-and-mouse game” of finding a countermeasure to the jamming, a Pentagon official said, only to then have the Russians counteract that countermeasure. And it is not clear how sustainable that game is in the long term.
The HIMARS system has thereby turned out to more or less useless. The idea that such 'quality' weapons can beat the greater Russian 'quantity' of equally good weapons is, like so many, simply nonsense.
Posted by b on May 11, 2023 at 16:55 UTC | Permalink
next page »B said
“Ukraine does not have the personnel to sustain a longer war”
New video from the leader of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, he is upset and ready to pull out.
VIDEO https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1656708983019782173?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 11 2023 17:13 utc | 2
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺The Kiev regime has begun the implementation of an operation to encircle our forces in the Artyomovsk direction. The head of PMC "Wagner" has repeatedly spoken about these plans. I already wrote that the enemy is planning to strike at the flanks to reach the rear of our forces, which are located in Artemovsk and the surrounding area.Today Sasha Simonov announced the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Berkhovka and Yagodnoe. Our troops retreated from their positions. Another strike in the Kleshcheevka area and also with local success.
And that is not all. In the Soledar area, the enemy was able to organize a breakthrough with several units, supported by armored groups, each of which had 2-3 tanks. Now the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to gain a foothold in their positions. The situation is difficult.
In the next 24 hours, apparently, the Kiev regime will begin to increase its efforts in the south. In the Orekhov area, in order to tie up our troops with battles, in the Gulyai Polya area in order to break through the first line of defense.
We will assume that the enemy counteroffensive has begun.
Military correspondent Yevgeniy Poddubny
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62182
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 17:17 utc | 3
I am much less interested in the (delayed? belayed?) Ukrainian counteroffensive, and am much more interested in the next Russian offensive.
Posted by: Monos | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 4
Permanent mission of Poland to the EU: on May 10, Western countries handed over to Kiev 28 aircraft (Polish - 14) and 575 tanks (Polish - 325).
Earlier, London reported that all the Challenger tanks promised to Kyiv are already in Ukraine.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 5
The Storm Shadow may deliver some success - up to the day the Russian military has finds a way to prevent that
Not the first time the RF faces these missiles
🇬🇧🇺🇦🇷🇺Russian air defense systems have already intercepted British Storm Shadow missiles in Syria, but they need to be taken seriously, military expert Alexei Leonkov told RIA Novosti.The Western coalition used these missiles for the French Armed Forces during strikes in Syria in 2018, when the Buk and Tor systems intercepted them for the first time, the expert noted.
The missile itself poses a threat - it can go in different ways, not necessarily in a straight line above the line of contact, which is saturated with air defense systems.
P.S. The only aircraft that is in service with Ukraine and is capable of carrying such a missile is the Su-24 bomber.
However, it is not known for certain how many serviceable SU-24 in Ukraine are contained. There are probably not as many of them as there are crews for the aircraft themselves.
One way or another, the supply of Storm Shadow will not drastically affect the course of hostilities another overpromoted "game changer".
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62132
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 17:20 utc | 6
"Permanent mission of Poland to the EU: on May 10, Western countries handed over to Kiev 28 aircraft (Polish - 14) and 575 tanks (Polish - 325).
Earlier, London reported that all the Challenger tanks promised to Kyiv are already in Ukraine.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 5"
More trash for the trash compactor
Posted by: Comandante | May 11 2023 17:33 utc | 7
@ Dave Oneil | May 11 2023 17:13 utc | 2
What? Mercenaries complaining? Mercenaries not being very selfless? What? I thought only conscientious and highly patient dudes signed up to become mercenaries? The essence of a mercenary is that he can resign anytime he wants like what Wagner is threatening. Their desire or not to continuing fighting if they feel the compensation isn't enough has no baring on the strategic situation. Guy is just a typical selfish jerk PMC who wants more resources for him and his guys and wants maximum "fun" for minimum risk at the expense of everyone else.
Posted by: Altai | May 11 2023 17:38 utc | 8
I haven't bought into the idea that this is going to be a war lasting another year. If anything, it reminds me tactically of nearing the end of Ww1's attritional phase. Heavily fortified areas are being abandoned to less fortified areas while equipment, trained manpower and ammunition dwindle on the side of Ukraine while there has been a huge mobilization on the other. Meanwhile the population attitude in Russia is if anything, let's get this over with.
Russian generals aren't going to stupidly waste their men, but they are going to take advantage of vastly increased mobility once the ground fully dries out. They also know that any ethnic Russians that were conscripted by force will be more than happy to surrender or even change sides given an opportunity. Even ethnic Ukrainians that are not Banderas lovers see the writing on the wall.
Posted by: Matthew | May 11 2023 17:40 utc | 9
Hmmm.... Trying to evade Russian ISR and launch a river crossing would probably require several days of complete overcast skies to blind that ISR while concentrating on interdicting recon drones that are all too ubiquitous. Thus, detection of such an undertaking would likely occur regardless. Indeed, trying to hide the forces required to mount any sort of offensive is close to impossible as at some point mass movement from cantonment to launch positions must occur, and Russia must be watching specifically for any such signs. The Kherson area weather for the next ten days won't help mask Ukie movements, but by the 22nd a front is expected to bring rain for three days. NATO's obsession remains Crimea, so that area of the FEBA is where something will happen if it does happen.
As for Prigozhin, Wagner will be withdrawn from the FEBA once Bakhmut is done in a few days for needed R&R and as a result will be removed from the limelight; thus, his behavior. Again, the political requirement to move Ukie artillery out of range of Russian territory remains a priority, so I expect further pushes away from Donetsk as Russia's next or ongoing move.
Hi, nowhere I see this:
ukraines now a 'land-locked nation,'
this geopolitically very very important,yes!
Why no speak?
Nato Loans estimated gdp levels with sea Port access. Today, the ukraines have reduce gdp in half permantely yet negotiated terms bad! After a year, kyev has doubled its repayment time by cutting it's gdp without sea ports.
Also, analysts need look back, Are the tanks obsolete today? Real battle, not tribal war but superpower wars? Blitzkrieged robot slaughter-houses. Why Digging for finite metals without Miners to build expensive bullet protected tanks? To protect a computer? The need for heavy tanks to protect inside people becomes removed now, yes,so the need for tanks becomes neediness and wasteful relics to maintain, resource intensive and very expensive. Metal is unobtainable, the have petrol.
They today,future build Remote controlled, long range autonomous flying bomerangs, flying Circular Saws on battlefield; flying mace, soon black powder will be "ancient weaponry" as these flying tools, reusable rechargable would be able to clean up after themselves. AI removes t
human soldiering need also, plastic robots will only need plastic ammo, battlefield tactics changing faster than school can teach. USA capitalists will always push for slower production,larger, more expensive needless weapons, they like expensive. Like a ww1 soldier sitting in a trench trying to figure out what you're seeing creeping closer, the same will occur, but will only hear the dropping of bodies sound like dominos as becomes refining metals more pricey than plastic when making millions of flying saws
Posted by: Miguel | May 11 2023 17:48 utc | 11
Near Majorsk, the enemy also went on the attack. There are active clashes since the morning.There are reports from sources on the front line about local successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on this sector of the front as well. At the moment, our units are making attempts to push the neo-Nazis back - they have not yet succeeded in gaining a foothold, the progress was relatively insignificant.
However, alarm bells are here too - in the Gorlovsky direction. So Zhenya is right - we can assume that the counteroffensive has begun.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62186
Friends, the enemy has intensified in the Soledar, Majorsk, Maryinka directions. The transfer of equipment to the Belgorod region is also underway. A heavy battle is underway near Soledar.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62187
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 17:48 utc | 12
I am having misgivings.
I read a new post on Pepe Escobar's Telegram channel today in which he states he now believes Prigozhen's comments are rooted in truth. I recommend you check it out. He also includes a link to another article on substack by someone I am unfamiliar with, that doesn't pull it's punches. Here it is:
Given today's recent news from the frontline, I have concerns that he is correct. I believe things may be far more rotten in the house of Russia than I had hoped. If these accusations are correct, we have a race to the bottom with the loser being the side that is the most, inept and corrupt.
I know this post will upset many....hell it upset me, but while I support Russia and consider their cause a just one, I do not allow my bias to encroach on my critical thinking. I look for truth, not spin by any side.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 11 2023 17:50 utc | 13
I am much less interested in the (delayed? belayed?) Ukrainian counteroffensive, and am much more interested in the next Russian offensive.
Posted by: Monos | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 4
________________________________________
For around a year the Russian side has been setting the terms of warfare in Ukraine. For around a year it has been known that the Russian side apparently has a higher number of artillery systems and ammunition shells, which is why the basic conditiond were probably chosen at first hand. It could go on like this for a time, I would assume.
Posted by: Konrad | May 11 2023 17:52 utc | 14
From the NATO drivel: "poorly trained Russian troops with outdated equipment and a smaller Ukrainian force with better Western weapons and training"
The side with "Western weapons and training" was the losing side in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Ukraine won't be different.
Posted by: Jesrad | May 11 2023 17:53 utc | 15
The heavy shelling of the center of Gorlovka by Grads is probably only a prelude before a massive artillery preparation, which is designed to support the counteroffensive. We dare to assume that today's attack near Majorsk is just a warm-up
https://t.me/wargonzo/12460
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 17:56 utc | 16
So this article (see below) was just posted in the Guardian, graphically documenting a Guantanamo prisoner's ongoing torture inferno there. I assume such regimes of torture go on throughout many, if not most, countries, including Ukraine, Russia, and China. So is it ultimately a matter of scale, with more of it occurring in so called totalitarian states such as China and Russia, etc–seems so?
In any case, such revelations make me think in turn about 9/11, and then about recent claims made by Robert Kennedy Jr suggesting the CIA was involved in his president-uncle's death, then about the contemporary case of the destruction of Nordstream, etc. I guess my point is that 9/11 was evidently not a conspiracy perpetrated by the US against itself, for if it had been as a consequence of the present war in Ukraine surely Russia and China would have made at the least very strong insinuations about who was really behind it, if not in fact provided affirmative empirical evidence (assuming actual US gov culpability).
Since the former have not done so, this would suggest that their intelligence services are either not technically capable of a such level of determinative analysis, or that the US really was genuinely caught off guard and unprepared by the terroristic cataclysm of 9/11.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2023/may/11/abu-zubaydah-drawings-guantanamo-bay-us-torture-policy
Posted by: Ludovic | May 11 2023 17:56 utc | 17
What is known about the Ukrainian offensive on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) front at this time.The Ukrainian forces are attacking in multiple directions, on the flanks of the Wagner PMC grouping in Artyomovsk, as follows (north to south):
— Near Soledar, the enemy forces attacked using several units, reinforced with armoured groups of 2-3 tanks, breaking through the first line of defence. The enemy is attempting to entrench itself on the new positions.
— On the northwest edge of Artyomovsk, the enemy is reported to have broken through the first line of defence at Berkhovka and Yagodnoye.
— To the south of Artyomovsk, the enemy is having localized success in an attack near Kleshcheevka.
— In the Gorlovka sector, the enemy is mounting an attack toward Mayorsk, a transitway station on the northwestern edge of Gorlovka.
The Ukrainian has not been able to solidify its control of any of the contested areas yet, but the situation is difficult, and the battles continue at this time.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45573
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 17:58 utc | 18
It has been a 'long war' now for at least a century ...
Money, Power, Central Banks, Oligarchs, and Global Fascism ...
https://southfront.org/the-anglo-american-hand-behind-the-rise-of-fascism-then-and-now/
No truth in the rumour that Dima is receiving intensive psychotherapy due to the postponement of 'the greatest ever counter-offensive' ... ever!
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 11 2023 17:58 utc | 19
News from the front. Ukraine's offensive has begun.
Just FYI....
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 11 2023 18:03 utc | 20
Yesterday, on ukrinform.net:
9.59 Almost 125,000 Ukrainians evacuated to safer regions
Today on ukrinform.net
20.50 Russians deport children en masse before Ukrainian counteroffensive
Posted by: Marvin | May 11 2023 18:05 utc | 21
Reports coming in of the use of chemical weapons by the Ukrainians....
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 11 2023 18:07 utc | 22
UAF wants to imitate the Stalingrad battle in Bakhmut, but now the 6th german army are the PMC Wagner, to encircle and destroy it.
Good luck with that!
Posted by: Dave | May 11 2023 18:08 utc | 23
An interview that Oleksei Arestovich conducted with the Ukrainian channel Apostrof TV on 18 March 2019 has been floating around YouTube for quite a while now, but this is the first print transcript I’ve seen:
Arestovich: With a 99.9% probability, our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia. And if we don't join NATO, Russia will absorb us completely within 10-12 years. That is the whole range we are in. Now go and vote for Zelensky!
Interviewer: And if you could choose, what would be best?
Arestovich: Of course, a big war with Russia and the move to NATO following the victory over Russia.
Interviewer: And what would a big war with Russia be like?
Arestovich: Well, it could be a big offensive air operation. Invasion by the Russian army, with the units established on our border. The siege of Kiev. An attempt to encircle the troops that are in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, an attack across the Crimean isthmus, access to the Novokakhovsk reservoir in order to give water to Crimea. An offensive from the territory of Belarus. The creation of new people's republics. Sabotage. Strikes on critical infrastructure. And so on. An air assault. This is a full-fledged war. And it has a 99% probability of happening.
Interviewer: When?
Arestovich.: 2021 to 2022. Well, from 2020 to 2022. The most critical period. And then the most critical period is 2024 to 2026. And the next one is 2028 to 2030. There could be three wars with Russia.
Interview: And what about 2024 to 2028.. If there is such a big war, then new people's republics will be proclaimed?
Arestovich: Of course! As soon as the Russian saboteurs and paratroopers enter in front of the Russian tanks, they will proclaim the people's republics of Kharkov, Soumy, Chernihiv, Odessa, Kherson. And so on. The People's Republic of Zaporozhie. But the price of joining NATO is, in all likelihood, a full-scale conflict with Russia. A larger conflict with Russia than we have today. Or a series of such conflicts. But in that conflict we will be very actively supported by the West. Weapons. Equipment. Assistance. New sanctions against Russia. Most likely, the introduction of a NATO contingent. A no-fly zone, and so on. In other words, we won't lose it. This is a good thing.
- Baud, J. (2023). Operation Z: Essais - Documents. United Kingdom: Max Milo.
Posted by: moabserver | May 11 2023 18:08 utc | 24
Looks like hunting season is underway in Bakhmut...
Posted by: I suck pootin cock | May 11 2023 18:10 utc | 25
A report being circulated on the Russian Telegram Channels:
Kiev's counteroffensive has begun. Tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go along the Kharkov bypass towards the border with Russia.
I would have taken this for Psyop, if not for writing, including acquaintances, trusted people. In columns on trawls, as they say, including Western models.
That is, Kiev, in parallel with the start of offensive operations along the flanks of Artemovsk, decided to aggravate the situation along the northern front. One can guess about the goals of the maneuver.
On the one hand, the enemy may be trying to stretch our resources to stop the threat in the Belgorod region. On the other hand, it may decide to cut off our supply routes to the Svatovo group with access to the territory of Russia.
The second option seems less likely to me. But, coupled with information about the appearance of long-range missiles in Kiev, nothing can be ruled out. Why break into the defense in the forehead, if you can get around from the north.
It can be seen that the Ukrainian command is now aiming to tear apart our orders at the Svatovo line and simultaneously push through the flanks in Artemovsk. To crumble the entire defensive configuration of the LPR.
In the meantime, from the Orekhov direction, they report about the use of chemical munitions by the enemy, from which, after inhalation, they lose consciousness.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 11 2023 18:12 utc | 26
This is more reason, if any were needed, that Russia needs to get serious. Take off the gloves, start decapitating Ukrainian officials, and rain destruction down upon the country's infrastructure. Delaying the inevitable serves no purpose.
And I not only agree with comments above which opined that Prigozhin's claims were rooted in truth, I actually said as much myself and I wrote that before Pepe Escobar.
The world is watching and waiting to see what Russia has up its sleeve. If Russia flakes out on this, it will put itself and the world in mortal danger. Russia needs a sow of strength right now.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 11 2023 18:19 utc | 27
NBC news is reporting that both sides say Ukraine has driven back Russian forces. Admit I have no clue if this is true
Posted by: Sick and Tired | May 11 2023 18:21 utc | 28
It could go on like this for a time, I would assume.
Posted by: Konrad | May 11 2023 17:52 utc | 14
It could go on for years, I think it'll last many years, but it's not without consequences. In one of Putin's speeches, about 2-3 weeks ago, he said something like attacks on the new regions should be stopped. The general staff hasn't heard his speech or they're solving the problem by evacuating everyone
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 18:23 utc | 29
So the same thing that happened last year is happening again now -- Ukrainians are moving massive amounts of men and equipment right to Russian positions, and this time are preparing, if the latest reports are true, to invade Belgorod, and once again nothing is done to disrupt those movements.
Just beautiful.
And after weeks of dropping UPMKs on god knows what, Russian aviation is nowhere to be seen at this moment.
Just as it was last summer -- constant cruise missile barrages hitting repair shops, then Ukronazi death squads just walked into eastern Kharkov unopposed.
300,000 mobilized are doing what exactly?
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:27 utc | 30
In the meantime, from the Orekhov direction, they report about the use of chemical munitions by the enemy, from which, after inhalation, they lose consciousness.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 11 2023 18:12 utc | 26
Yes, not for the first time. And nothing will be done about it, as it wasn't done the last dozen times chemical weapons were used. They didn't even make noise about it...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:29 utc | 31
"Permanent mission of Poland to the EU: on May 10, Western countries handed over to Kiev 28 aircraft (Polish - 14) and 575 tanks (Polish - 325).
Earlier, London reported that all the Challenger tanks promised to Kyiv are already in Ukraine.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 5"
I think that 575 tanks is actually what they have handed over in the past 14 months. That may or may not include all those T-72, I get the feeling that there have been over 400 of them delivered at least. Btw, anyone remember the stories of Ukrainian farmers towing Russian T-72 tanks out of the fields?
It was a story made up because Ukraine got so many T-72 from the outside, and no one really talked about it. So that story was just made up to explain those T-72 tanks, and "Ukraine suddenly had more than to begin with".
Shadow Storm may have occasional success on whatever they decide to hit, not everything can be covered. Of course there are obvious priority list for coverable objects by air defense, air fields being one of the top priority.
Posted by: unimperator | May 11 2023 18:35 utc | 32
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:29 utc | 31
Take a deep breath... The sky is not falling.
Posted by: ctiger | May 11 2023 18:37 utc | 33
Posted by: MiniMo | May 11 2023 17:18 utc | 5
“Permanent mission of Poland to the EU: on May 10, Western countries handed over to Kiev 28 aircraft (Polish - 14) and 575 tanks (Polish - 325).”
——————
The Germans must be breathing a bit easier now that the armaments of the numerically superior forces of the Reparations-hungry Poles are being drawn down.
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | May 11 2023 18:38 utc | 34
The counteroffensive underway could be this one:
Our source in the OP said that Syrsky reported to Zelensky at night about the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive near Bakhmut, the weather had stabilized and there would be no rain for the next ten days. Syrsky's plan was approved at the end of February and is now supplemented with only two directions.The main strike will be concentrated on Soledar by two groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are based in Slavyansk and Seversk, an additional strike will be organized in the south of Bakhmut from two directions - Konstantinovka / Chasov Yar and Toretsk along Kleshcheevka / Experienced.
At the second stage of the operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should surround Bakhmut from two sides and begin an attack on Lisichansk.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17580
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 18:40 utc | 35
Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov? Could that be why they arrested Gonzalo Lira?
Posted by: Lysias | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 36
this from slavyangrad (yeah, I'm looking at you shadowbanned)
For those inclined to panic, I would recommend taking a break from media for a couple of days, then return to watch history happen. Those of hardier constitution are welcome to follow our reports.for all the nervous
Posted by: ctiger | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 37
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️From the Kherson region, information is being received about the concentration of small boats on the right bank of the Dnieper, it seems that a landing operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being prepared, writes RT.According to preliminary data, the accumulation of landing boats is observed in Berislav.
https://t.me/intelslava/47625
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 38
Shadow Storm may have occasional success on whatever they decide to hit, not everything can be covered. Of course there are obvious priority list for coverable objects by air defense, air fields being one of the top priority.Posted by: unimperator | May 11 2023 18:35 utc | 32
That isn't even the big issue here. It is the precedent it sets.
Reportedly, they have sent them $32M worth of missiles, which at $800K each is 40 missiles. Most of those will be shot down, but a few will get through and do real damage. They intercepted 100% of them in Syria but presumably NATO has had time to adapt since then.
In the grand scheme of things, it will not be a disaster -- we see how Ukraine, after taking thousands of 500-kg warheads deep in its rear, is still alive and kicking.
But these are UK missiles, firing from planes modified by NATO, with targeting by NATO. It is a direct NATO cruise missile attack on Russia any way you look at it.
If Russia allows this to go unanswered, then they have effectively surrendered. You cannot be launching cruise missiles against another nuclear power on its own territory, that was completely unthinkable previously.
The next step will be deep strikes into European Russia with massive Tomahawk and JASSM barrages, which will take out critical capabilities, and then force Russia either to launch a full scale nuclear attack and end the word as we know it, or a surrender.
The only way out of this is to wipe the UK off the map and to pray the US does not launch everything. Otherwise Russia is finished.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:44 utc | 39
The goal of this initial phase of the Ukrainian offensive is still to find the weak spots in the Russian armour. The main event will not begin in earnest until we see:— a real and sustained artillery barrage against the Russian positions across the entire (or most) of the frontline;
— long-range missile and MLRS strikes at the rear of the Russian groupings, at depots, and command and communications infrastructure;
— the deployment in significant numbers of the stored-up drone arsenal; and,
— massive information warfare fud about Russian troops allegedly leaving positions.This is still the first stage. Nothing has happened so far that gives cause for immediate concern. Even minor retreats and withdrawals would mean very little. Any such maneuvers will generally have been prepared in advance to lure the Ukrainian forces into artillery fire bags.
For those inclined to panic, I would recommend taking a break from media for a couple of days, then return to watch history happen. Those of hardier constitution are welcome to follow our reports.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45576
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 18:45 utc | 40
this from slavyangrad (yeah, I'm looking at you shadowbanned)For those inclined to panic, I would recommend taking a break from media for a couple of days, then return to watch history happen. Those of hardier constitution are welcome to follow our reports.for all the nervous
Posted by: ctiger | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 38
Yeah, and go back to what Slavyangrad was posting in the first days of September 2022. I remember, you do not.
We are all keeping our fingers crossed this time it will be different, but the early signs are not encouraging.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:45 utc | 41
‼️IMPORTANT: The situation at the front against the background of statements about the beginning of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, panic is actively involuntarily sown....
▪️Our people from near Majorsk report that the enemy is not conducting any counterattacks there, the situation there is now under control.
▪️Columns from near Kharkov in the direction of the Belgorod region - so far they are not talking about anything, the further movement of the columns is not clear.
▪️Near Belgorod, the situation is now normal. Rumors about the columns for more than a week.
▪️Under the Kherson front, boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are constantly concentrated, ours are watching, at the moment no particularly dangerous movements are recorded.
▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, everything is also regular: local clashes and artillery duels along the line of contact.
▪️ So far, the Bakhmut section is the most difficult - ours are extinguishing the fire of breakthroughs there.
▪️ At Kremennaya-Svatovo, "🅾️tvazhnye" and the Western Military District continue to advance and bombard the Armed Forces of Ukraine with tons of shells.
t.me/RVvoenkor
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62196
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 18:48 utc | 42
@Down South | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 39
DDGeopolitics writes, that this is fake info - they write:
"It appears that we ourselves have fallen for a bit of a psyop ourselves. The above post was put in place by the original author to test the spread of TG rumours. It is something that he apparently made up to test this and well - we fell for it.
In brief - there is no confirmation of any assembly of boats or amphibious vehicles in Berislav on the west bank of the Dnepr river in Kherson Oblast. It was made up by RU TG commentator Vladislav Ugolny to test the spread of rumors on Telegram and demonstrate how quickly unreliable information can spread.
On that note we will soon be posting a reminder for the counteroffensive and how to read the situation - or not, and this incident has given us cause to think still more about how relevant it is."
Posted by: NoName | May 11 2023 18:53 utc | 43
Posted by: Ludovic | May 11 2023 17:56 utc | 17
*** or that the US really was genuinely caught off guard and unprepared by the terroristic cataclysm of 9/11.***
*Very* much doubt that those who rule the USA were at all "caught off guard" by an event which exactly met their own requirements, for further execution of an already planned agenda.
Posted by: Cynic | May 11 2023 18:54 utc | 44
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:44 utc | 40
“The only way out of this is to wipe the UK off the map and to pray the US does not launch everything. Otherwise Russia is finished.”
Boy, you must really think that the Russian mobiks don’t know which end of their rifle to point where. On the other hand, looking at the results of the last 12 months…
Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 11 2023 18:54 utc | 45
When Z. announced in his statement today not to start the counteroffensive because he cared about the loss of lives, it was clear that just the opposite was going to happen very soon.
Posted by: Moses | May 11 2023 18:57 utc | 46
🇷🇺👉🇺🇦🏴☠️ Information about the concentration of small boats on the right bank of the Dnieper comes from the Kherson region. It looks like a landing is being prepared.
According to preliminary data, an accumulation of landing craft can be observed in Berislav. Previously, Russian aviation was actively engaged in this area, and a large warehouse with military equipment was destroyed on the site of the Berislav Machine-Building Plant.
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Татьяна Н.
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20:55
Z and V
‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️💥🇷🇺 It is reported that the offensive of the Ukrainian army has started.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:04 utc | 47
Other channels say
.
Kiev's counteroffensive has begun. Tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine drive through the Kharkov bypass towards the border with Russia.
I would have taken this for Psyop if it hadn't catered for the writing, including acquaintances, trusted people. In columns about trawls, as they say, Western models too.
That is, in parallel with the start of offensive operations along the flanks of Artemovsk, Kiev decided to tighten the situation along the Northern Front. One can speculate about the goals of the maneuver.
On the one hand, the enemy may try to strain our resources to stop the threat in the Belgorod region. On the other hand, it may decide to cut off our supply routes to the Svatovo Group with access to the territory of Russia.
The second option seems less likely to me. But coupled with information about the appearance of long-range missiles in Kiev, nothing can be ruled out. Why break into forehead defenses when you can bypass from the north?
It can be seen that the Ukrainian command is now aiming to rip apart our commands on the Svatovo line while breaking through the flanks at Artemovsk. Bring down the entire LPR defense configuration.
In the meantime, from the direction of Orekhov, they report on the use of chemical munitions by the enemy, from which they lose consciousness after inhaling them.
As the saying goes, it has started.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:06 utc | 48
It should be noted azoz is leading attacks around bahkmut with some success
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2023 19:08 utc | 49
Boy, you must really think that the Russian mobiks don’t know which end of their rifle to point where. On the other hand, looking at the results of the last 12 months…Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 11 2023 18:54 utc | 46
The mobiks are a side show.
The strategic balance is what matters, and allowing yourself to be slowly turned into a much bigger Syria (where everyone can do air strikes whenever they want) while having the largest and most modern nuclear arsenal can only happen through high treason.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:09 utc | 50
@mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:04 utc | 48
See my posting no. 44
Also Intelslava is now writing:
"Military Correspondent Andrei Rudenko said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not conducting any counterattacks, the situation is under control. This was reported by his sources from Majorsk.
Everything is normal on the Zaporozhye Front: local clashes and artillery duels are taking place along the line of contact.
Near Belgorod, the situation is now normal, as well as near Kherson. The most difficult section so far is near Artemovsk, but Russian fighters are “putting out the fire of breakthroughs” there.
Volodymyr Rogov confirmed that the situation on the line of contact in the Zaporozhye region remains calm, and there is no evidence of a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
Posted by: NoName | May 11 2023 19:10 utc | 51
Jesrad@15
There is a big difference between fighting a force like the NLF in Vietnam, trained and supported by General Giap's army, which had been fighting Japanese, French and US imperialists for twenty years. And facing the armed forces of a state, like modern Russia, which is a mirror image, socially and economically, of the corrupt capitalism in the United States.
Russian politics and society are still riddled with comprador oligarchs who are either agents of the western financiers or full fledged members of their class.
Witness the Independent in London which is owned by a man whose wealth is based in Russia, and which consistently promotes the fascist cause in Ukraine.
Wars, as Gilbert Doctorow recently argued,change nations.
The Soviet Union arose out of a badly fought war conducted by a corrupt oligarchy dependent upon foreigners. A new Russia may very well arise out of the ruins of the society- dominated by barefaced thieves- which has plundered Russia for the past thirty five years and whose roots lay in the corrupt, self serving and treacherous bureaucracy of the CPSU.
United and gripped by a just and honest cause, that of liberating the people of the Donbas, the Russian people are unconquerable, but they are no longer serfs to be herded into sacrifice by scoundrels who are leaders because they have bribed or flattered or otherwise served the powerful; they are the descendants of the generations which overturned a tyranny, defended their land against the united imperialisms of the world, conquered the evil essence of class rule in the form of Nazism and again rebuilt their society from ruin, all the while holding out assistance to the world's oppressed, assisting them in their battles for freedom against empires, and warding off the provocations and aggression of the same imperialists whose bacon they had saved after 1942.
Posted by: bevin | May 11 2023 19:11 utc | 52
There seems to be a bomb rain on Ukr positions in Berislav, Zap, Chernigov, Sumy
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 19:15 utc | 53
" The side with "Western weapons and training" was the losing side in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Ukraine won't be different.
Posted by: Jesrad | May 11 2023 17:53 utc | 15 "
Absolutely correct. The US was pushed out from Syria and Iraq with their tails between their legs, and now they're even retreating from Lebanon. What losers.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 11 2023 19:17 utc | 54
Posted by: NoName | May 11 2023 19:10 utc | 52
.
As always, very conflicting reports
RT reports but also offensive has started..
It doesn't matter...if that's the case, the only thing left for us to do is watch
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:18 utc | 55
It should be noted azoz is leading attacks around bahkmut with some successPosted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2023 19:08 utc | 50
Some success because regular army units just left their positions. Let's hope this was coordinated and pre-determined and now those positions will be annihilated -- reportedly planes took off, but so far are guided bombs are hitting Sumy and Chernigov, not Bakhmut.
Otherwise it's Kharkov 2.0.
P.S. How it even came to this point is an outright scandal. RU has been camping in an around Bakhmut for nearly a year. How is it that UA can concentrate men and equipment nearby? Why is nobody asking that question?
First, there should not have been running trains anywhere in Ukraine, but they were never disabled. That's one thing.
Then we have the men -- those are dispersed into civilian dwellings and underground. Short of 20-kt airbursts over Slavyansk, Kramatorks, Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar, there is no way to annihilate them until they come out close to you, and that is unacceptable because most civilians there are both Russians and pro-Russian.
But equipment? Well, here is the inexcusable part. Because the equipment is hidden in various hangars in the industrial areas of these cities. And they have been hitting those, but they don't have perfect intel about each and every location, so most of it is intact, and the equipment is hidden there. But there is a solution to that -- for 10 months of just sitting there, every single hangar should have been leveled to the ground. Glide bombs, Tornado-S barrages, tactical SRBMs, cruise missiles -- plenty of tools. Level it all, then there are no places to hide equipment, hit the rest with Lancets out in the open, and you can advance. But even that was not done. Industry can be rebuilt, it was old and decayed anyway. But no...
Etc. etc. etc.
Strange, strange, not-war...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:19 utc | 56
Looks like this war is now being repositioned as a new Forever War. Perhaps this was on the cards all along - to provide ongoing cover a la 1984 for the profound destruction of our existing lifestyle that a 'Great Reset', or 'Building Back Better' requires. The blitzkrieg rhetoric in any case served to get the Western audiences onboard for a war on their shores.
Now that that in the West habituation and boredom set in (particularly in the U.S. outside of certain quarters few people still care about Ukraine), the new script can arrive. Maybe this Big Offensive talk is just the interlude. Those piecemeal new wunderwaffen supplies haven't yet appeared much on the clobber lists. The narrative seems to be that they're held back for the big offensive, or indeed it's just theatre while the the money keeps flowing and the Forever War is put on a sustained simmer.
Ultimately the Ukraine war is probably a side show to the more important Great Reset tasks: total surveillance and control through CBDCs, lockdowns forever (15 minute cities), abolition of civil liberties and last vestiges of free society (hate speech laws), destruction of morals and family as the core of society, depopulation through multiple vectors.
Where is Russia and hopefully other quarters of the BRICS in this (I'm nearly discounting hope for the 'West')? Putin's speech was clear and gives hope that the WEF 'New World Order' faces resistance. Russia's strategy in Syria could work well also in Ukraine: freeze the military conflict, then work behind the scenes through diplomacy to build a peaceful new reality.
Posted by: Leser | May 11 2023 19:19 utc | 57
Great. Ukraine has barely started its offensive and already they are kicking russian ass. Effing pathetic.
Posted by: paul | May 11 2023 19:20 utc | 58
Absolutely correct. The US was pushed out from Syria and Iraq with their tails between their legs, and now they're even retreating from Lebanon. What losers.Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 11 2023 19:17 utc | 55
The US still occupies 30% of Syria...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:21 utc | 59
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:19 utc | 57
No sense is getting hysterical before anything has even happened.
Posted by: catdog | May 11 2023 19:22 utc | 60
If the Chinese are monitoring NATO's Ukraine SNAFU, they're probably more worried about laughinging themselves to death than being warmonged to death by the West's disorganised rabble.
The Ukraine "campaign" is beginning to remind me of the Silly Walks episode of Mony Python. Or the He's A Lumberjack song.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 11 2023 19:22 utc | 61
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 18:45 utc | 42 "Yeah, and go back to what Slavyangrad was posting in the first days of September 2022"
Like this from September 7th, regarding "Kharkov direction"?
"The patriots are now saying that the people running the operation are incompetent. A couple of months ago, the line was that the politicians were hampering the war efforts and not allowing the pros to do what needed to be done. Now, the line is that the pros are incompetent political appointees and that we need actual military men back in charge of the Russian army."
Sounds something like what is being said now.
Then the comments on that article:
"Ukraine has rushed into a cauldron..."
Posted by: Response2 | May 11 2023 19:23 utc | 62
Excerpt:
.
🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🏴☠️ Russian planes took off to attack the armed forces of Ukraine.
According to preliminary information, the sounds of fighter, bomber and ground attack aircraft flights were recorded in the southern direction, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the military said.
Air alert has been declared in Chernihiv and Sumy regions of Ukraine.
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Татьяна Н.
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21:03
Z and V
⁉️🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🏴☠️ Can the attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance in the Artemovsk (Bakhmut) area and clashes in other sectors of the front be considered a counteroffensive?
The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to look for weak points in the defense, including on the flanks, and to break through these positions in order to publicly demonstrate success, writes the Military Chronicle. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to engage with two or three tanks and two infantry fighting vehicles, more than 25-30 people are not thrown into battle.
The main forces of the Ukrainian offensive are expected to be assembled 24-72 hours before the start of active hostilities. The direction of the main attack will depend on the accumulation of equipment and the activity of ground forces.
Meanwhile, the forces employed in some quarters for the "hype" are unlikely to be able to breach the defenses.
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Татьяна Н.
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21:07
Z and V
‼️YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE
‼️🇷🇺👉🇺🇦🏴☠️ Nowadays there will be many fakes and nonsense from the enemy. This is one of the important stages in accompanying your army's actions.
The main objectives of these actions:
- Intimidation of the civilian population of Russia.
- sow panic.
- bind and tear apart our forces and prevent us from focusing on what matters most.
Everyone must be reserved and cold-blooded.
‼️Pay special attention to the channels and sources that have been disguised as “their own” all along; They are the ones sprinkling a lot of false information.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:23 utc | 63
" The Germans must be breathing a bit easier now that the armaments of the numerically superior forces of the Reparations-hungry Poles are being drawn down.
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | May 11 2023 18:38 utc | 34 "
Poland has already purchased a large amount of weapons from South Korea as replacement. Do you assume they didnt think ahead ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 11 2023 19:24 utc | 64
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:09 utc | 51
“The strategic balance is what matters”
A mere Special Military Operation moving strategic balance? Sounds like somebody’s strategic calculations didn’t work out as planned.
And isn’t there a law in Russia that forbids attacking other nations? Hence SMO.
Although on this I am far from sure, any education/clarification is gladly accepted.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 11 2023 19:24 utc | 65
Please excuse my long absence from the bar…
Thoughts on how we got here: Russia’s Nat. Gas estimates 2014 -1,688 trillion cubic ft. Rising stars of Russian FSB get Gazprom management and directorships to help understand and oversee RUS’s precious resources (occasionally recently added to 5i’s defenestration lists). Tracing RUS petroleum to roots one finds Caspian Sea first opened in 1872 to foreign expertise: Rothschilds, Oppenheimers, Nobel with British Royal & Dutch Royal households founded Royal British and Dutch Shell - decedents remain largest shareholders. Barents Sea research produced major finds off Norway and AZRF -Arctic Zone of Russian Federation. RUS zones organized by Sevmorneftegaz, Gazprom subsidiary.
2006- 2010 RUS gas was initially destined for US market as LNG export then
*Gazprom indicated in early 2011 that it wants to export produced gas to Europe via its Nord Stream pipeline(s)* causing divestment and unwind of G8 into G7 and possibly first domino of all that followed? Cost of not rolling over?
In short: saying ‘no’ to some families causes global consequences. For similar reasons there’s been little shock and awe tactics by RUS during SMO due to pre-war Ukraine investments by powerful RUS oligarch interests, though likely this will decrease as assets degrade/change hands.
=====///-- --- .- ///=====
Oil/Gas details See: SVP (Swiss Registered) Shtokman Development Company
Offshore Energy various journals incl: ogj dot com /exploration development discoveries drilling
Sakhalin LNG, Pacific coast, operating, 09/06/2009 by Gazprom, Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi.
Funding of: LPG export terminal Taman, Black Sea. Novatek-operated Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex.
Hydrocarbons Technology dot com / projects / Shtokman _ Gas _ Project /
=====///-- -- .... --.///=====
apologies that I’ve not much time available to contribute, though continue to appreciate all that b does daily! and excellent comment contributions from core regulars.
Sad it seems ZATO narrative drivers increasingly seek to disrupt havens of knowledge, congratulations for being so worthy. Please keep it up!
As side note: I see the “march loop” low flying exercises in UK now includes Lockheed C-130 Hercules 4 aircraft flight groups...for 1st time https://youtu.be/_D-tJnO_4uA?t=247 readiness for….
Robert Baer – “the oil business and the arms business are the same thing”
mmHg out.
Posted by: Mercury | May 11 2023 19:25 utc | 66
The US still occupies 30% of Syria...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:21 utc | 60
.
But only for political reasons...not military ones!
What drives Putin / Assat to have tolerated this until now....
We will NEVER find out!!!!
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:26 utc | 68
" The US still occupies 30% of Syria...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 19:21 utc | 60 "
It also has Iraq permanently by the balls. Look at my link.
S a r c a s m .
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 11 2023 19:31 utc | 69
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 18:40 utc | 35
Our source in the OP said that the counter-offensive near Bakhmut had nothing to do with the Azov operation, which would begin later.Syrsky's plan for Bakhmut was approved a long time ago and was postponed due to weather conditions, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to push the enemy back in order to keep the city.
Moreover, a large-scale operation has not yet begun, now the front is being probed so as not to fall under a counter attack.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17711
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 19:32 utc | 70
" This reminds me of all the German documents used as evidence at Nuremburg.
Posted by: Glenn | May 11 2023 19:22 utc | 61 "
All the evidence at those trials was air tight and credible.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 11 2023 19:33 utc | 71
Posted by: NoName | May 11 2023 18:53 utc | 44
Hell of a time to do something like that.
Posted by: Down South | May 11 2023 19:34 utc | 72
RT reports :
.
The information recently spread by Kiev that a Kinzhal hypersonic missile had allegedly been intercepted by the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system is pure wishful thinking. This is reported by TASS with reference to a high-ranking source in the Russian Defense Ministry.
The flight speed of the Kinzhal missile exceeds the maximum combat performance of the anti-aircraft systems supplied to Kiev from the West, including Patriot, it said. TASS quoted its source in the Moscow agency as saying:
"In addition, the anti-missile maneuver performed by the Kinzhal missile at the moment of final approach and the almost vertical target approach preclude the interception of this ordnance by anti-aircraft missile systems."
Regular Ukrainian reports of the alleged interception of Russian missiles are aimed at justifying the excessive consumption of ammunition by Western air defense systems, it said. According to the source in the Russian Defense Ministry, the number of statements by Kiev about the launch of Russian missiles is many times higher than the number of actual missile launches.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 19:34 utc | 73
This guy clearly disagrees with MoA:
PEPE ESCOBAR, who recently relocated to Moscow, and who's record of anti West reporting is evident to most, reposted the article on Telegram.
I'm feeling long on 7D Chess and Popcorn.
Posted by: Et Tu | May 11 2023 19:42 utc | 74
Info from around bahkmut does show that Prigozhin was right. The russian army protecting the flanks around Wagner isn't willing to fight and is retreating when attacked.
Nor was it willing to attack the forces assembled around chasiv yar very much.
These data points confirm the thesis that putin and his henchmen have sold out russia. Every russian region will start trying to leave the federation if they won't fight for the new Ukrainian ones, which of course is the point.
Russia is to be decolonized and the collaborators are doing it for a cut of the spoils when it's cut up and sold in pieces. Sad. I bet the soldiers all know it now, so why die for this war? I'd retreat to.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2023 19:42 utc | 75
Everyone should relax. If this is the long-delayed greatest counteroffensive, it will fail. This is it for the UAF. And more importantly, another massive neocon fail is about to play out.
Don't forget that the stated objective of the cokehead Zelensky regime is to sow panic. Don't allow yourself to be sucked into that. I hope you've spent the past few months carefully cultivating a small set of sources for news, as many are likely compromised by Western propaganda, including some Russian bloggers.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 11 2023 19:42 utc | 76
"Notwithstanding the reports about enemy movements, all is quiet along the entire front line"
So the offensive already ended? "probing attacks"... right. Arma 3 videos were a lot more convincing last year, for the general public. couldn't even get a kinzhal mock-up ready for the photoshoot
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 19:45 utc | 77
Judging by the amount of Bellingcat both contributors on this one thread,
Some thing is going on.
Media optics.
Relax folks. Putin's the daddy.
Posted by: Mark2 | May 11 2023 19:46 utc | 78
Something else to remember, in addition to @79
All Youtube bloggers, even the good ones not compromised, rely on ad revenue for their living. They will tend to overhype the greatest counteroffensive, be overly dramatic, and do the Prigozhin/WWE thing.
They've been hyping this thing for months and now is their moment to profit.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 11 2023 19:47 utc | 79
Posted by: Et Tu | May 11 2023 19:42 utc | 77
Little troll, Pepe left Moscow already, was a simple visit, no "relocation"
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 19:48 utc | 80
I'm utterly disgusted at the West's unlimited support for the Neo-Nazi regime that runs Ukraine, this just adds to the disgust. Now the mask of the West has completely fallen off what's now showing is truly ugly. I'll never think of the West as a fair and free (expression) place again.
"A Ukrainian media group partnered with BBC, Der Spiegel and other Western outlets polled readers on which Russian intellectual should be assassinated following a car bomb attack on writer Zakhar Prilepin. The Biden administration has greenlit Kiev’s campaign of terror."
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/05/09/ukrainian-media-car-bombing-russian-writer/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2023 19:49 utc | 82
Re: long war article in Foreign Affairs
The really big glorreiche Counter-Offensive will take place no sooner than mid-2024; more likely I’m
Spring 2025. that’s how long it will take NATO to organize, re-train, and pre-position supplies for a 650,000 man ground force.
Posted by: Exile | May 11 2023 19:52 utc | 83
regarding reports Rus airforce is ready and on the go...could they be targeting the UK shadow storm missiles that apparently could be in Ukraine after all as we speak...anyways surely Rus intel will be activly searching out their location and probable transport routes.
Sooo...could Russia now be able to even more push back Nato shipping and surveillance
planes even further by claiming and assuming that surveillance is to be used for these long distance missiles
and bring them down as R2P.. or ate just going to wait one landing anywhere near Rus borders then in response no hold barred anywhere as required??
Wagner head seems to be saying the counteroffense is happening ...presumably timed by Ukr because the shadowstorm have arrived are about to be deployed...Zel is playing a psycho game too saying he is still waiting .. how about for successful launch of shadow storms now he has aircraft - not saying successful landings though ...
Posted by: Jo | May 11 2023 19:53 utc | 84
Hitler saying same thing, launching last "offensive" 'in Germany.'
if it's inside your country, it's not an offensive,
just a slaughter using the last remain ammo by poor people defending a nation that will never give them land or opportunity but radiated indentured debt, so there fighting for a renter bill to pay. Poor ukrainians, should surrender to brothers in language to protect grandchildren.
In note of Ukraine tanks, sensors are key but no talk,quiet cause west west manufacture, as chip nation's have key, ignorant military not offer
capitciance smart drones cause thatthey can only make lead pencils, globalization also bad during war as shipping parts unable. ( "sensor metal") seems outdated by bynow, they make people more stupid. Brawndo.
Steel broadcasts a signal unlike any in natural forest for the magnetic capacitive signals proximity to detection, Heat, motion, and triggering based from ambiance standard of the air. Calculation is here gents, yes, robots find fast,
how long tanks lifetime in battles is smaller for every 1 sensor manufactured, each made beats tank, costs are incomparable and equate Titanic defeat. while tank can not even pivot shoot drone, tank useless against plastic can't even shoot. Bad times. Tank battle life expectancy declining is almost zero or seconds in today plus how expensive a tank, is seems the expected results are not worth costs as plastic works fine. A tanks output today does not equal a simple magnetic ball that rolls until it magnetic attraction, now these things have ability to move around, creep closer, seek out and hunt, like mines that move.
Gentlemen, tanks created to fight tanks which they
mic assembly lines love for century
making same old steel tanks parts. These assembly lines for tanks still there, less not need anymore they are forced into battlefield regardless, taking away the need to assemble, forcing them to retool when they can't is vulnerability to attack.
I Stop Helping them by creating an imaginary need for an ancient museum relic to keep their legacy of same old ww1 tank manufacturers, creating new type warfare, where their inability to retool or manufacture factories,or make new things is their vulnerability to exploit, Of note bar tenders, this leads to 'heat detection'an unmentioned slaughter tool awaiting flesh consumption.
PS I don't read telegram cause unable to read on device, anything other than propaganda is refreshing. Thx
Posted by: Miguel | May 11 2023 19:56 utc | 85
There have been so many warning signs. The Wagner guy's comments were just the latest ones. Many have been mentioned here by the so-called trolls. For example, the red lines were never enforced. Big talk was never followed up. Almost 400,000 new troops were supposedly brought in, but never seemed to show up anywere. The only fighters willing to fight were Wagnerites and Chechens. Ukrainian advances always seemed to happen fast, while Russian advances only happened very very very very slowly. On and on. So we certainly shouldn't be surprised. The Ukrainian offensive isn't even 24 hours old, I believe, and the only Russian strategy visible is retreat.
When the retreat from Kherson happened - and that was, what, the third major Russian retreat of this war?!!! - I said that the Russians could prove me wrong by taking Bahkmut. Well they almost did it. And I suspended judgement because I saw that. I kept my judgement suspended when the Russian offensive bogged down everywhere except Bahkmut, even though the explanations for that made no sense.
But that's over now. Bahkmut still isn't taken and the Ukrainian offensive has begun and the Russian response has been more defeated and retreated. All that artillery ready and waiting? The air power ready to really get into the war? The reserves ready and waiting? Nothing nothing and more nothing.
My god. This is going to be worse than Napoleon retreating from MOscow.
Posted by: paul | May 11 2023 19:57 utc | 86
The kayaks in Kherson story was another failure.
I really wanted to see people in kayaks shooting and paddling at the same time. And please Mr. Bojo, send some of those jetpacks you have, should be even more entertaining, the soldiers can't use their hands to hold weapons when jetpacking, the designers are the well known British scientists
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 20:04 utc | 87
Can we block westerners from commenting for a few days? They all seem incapable of commenting without descending into hysteria. Maybe that Alex Jones fellow was right about estrogen in their water.
Posted by: MrSandman | May 11 2023 20:06 utc | 88
91.
You should fly to Moscow and demand Putin explain his strategy to you, random internet mendicant.
From where I sit, the fucking idiot Maericans have been outplayed to the nth degree. They lost months ago, they just haven't reconciled themselves to it yet. Do carry on with your bizarre crowing which has no apparent basis in reality.
There is a direct relationship between how fucked Ukraine is and the level of infantile trolling here. I wonder just how much these clowns seethe knowing their dipshit claims are just left to lie there on the floor, like the inert vomit they are.
Maericans will have ample time to savor the bitter fruits of their elites misguided and frankly idiotic policies. As noted before, where goes the dollar so goes Maerican power. The smell of balance sheet collapse reaches me even here in low earth orbit.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 11 2023 20:07 utc | 89
Re: retreating
Barflies would do well to study the first week of Kursk or better yet the successes of Ratko Mladic fighting very outnumbered and outgunned during the 93-95 Bosnian Civil War. In both cases, the attackers were channeled into salients and were subsequently destroyed.
Mladic made a fine art of this many times, NATO finally gave up and signed Dayton
Posted by: Exile | May 11 2023 20:09 utc | 90
This would certainly explain why they brought Gonzalo Lira in from the cold
Posted by: Larry J | May 11 2023 18:43 utc | 36
I posted just the other day that his arrest could be a clue as to where the counteroffensive would begin.
Posted by: Mary | May 11 2023 20:10 utc | 91
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 11 2023 20:07 utc | 94
.
Top
Answer !!!!
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 20:11 utc | 92
there will never be a Ukrainian Counter Offensive
Agreed - However, there will be a NATO Counter Offensive with 650,000 ground troops in 1 or 2 years. Every signal points to this theater strategy.
Posted by: Exile | May 11 2023 20:13 utc | 93
Exile | May 11 2023 20:13 utc | 98
And what will they attack?
Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 20:15 utc | 94
From where I sit, the fucking idiot Maericans have been outplayed to the nth degree. They lost months ago, they just haven't reconciled themselves to it yet. Do carry on with your bizarre crowing which has no apparent basis in reality.Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 11 2023 20:07 utc | 94
If UK cruise missile flying at Russian airfields without Russian doing anything to stop is Russia winning, I hate to imagine what a draw would look like...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 20:15 utc | 95
My god. This is going to be worse than Napoleon retreating from MOscow.
Posted by: paul | May 11 2023 19:57 utc | 91
Your god is dead!
Posted by: ostro | May 11 2023 20:17 utc | 96
And what will they attack?Posted by: rk | May 11 2023 20:15 utc | 99
Who knows to what point the frog will have been cooked by then?
That may be what Ukronazis invading Belgorod will be about -- to make such an act acceptable and normalized.
After all we have now already normalized attacks against the nuclear triad and attacks against the Kremlin. Neither of those received a response.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 11 2023 20:18 utc | 97
Agreed - However, there will be a NATO Counter Offensive with 650,000 ground troops in 1 or 2 years. Every signal points to this theater strategy.
Posted by: Exile | May 11 2023 20:13 utc | 98
.
In that case, this NATO and earth no longer exist, you weirdo...
There will NEVER be an earth without Russia...
A world without NATO but yes!
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 11 2023 20:18 utc | 98
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 11 2023 20:07 utc | 94
What is the metric by which we will know you are right and "Wagner guy's" is wrong?
I don't see how the "Maericans have been outplayed to the nth degree". Paraphrasing someone else: They are fighting to the last Ukrainian and it appears there are still some left. This 3 Day SMO is now over 440 days long.
Posted by: Response2 | May 11 2023 20:19 utc | 99
If this is the real deal,
It would be worth seeing whats coming across the border between Poland and Ukraine in the way of weapons and man power.
That would tell whats coming down the line days ahead.
Plus answer... is this Ukraine or NATO coming over the hill.
If NATO
England will be the first to feel a world of pain.
Posted by: Mark2 | May 11 2023 20:19 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Maybe the UAF counter offensive is well under way, it just isn't producing a result?
Today's first SitRep collection is up.
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-05-11-1
Posted by: Will | May 11 2023 17:11 utc | 1