Ukraine SitRep: Bakhmut - Prigozhin - Counteroffensive
Some 10% of Bakhmut/Aryomovsk, with two distinct areas, are still in Ukrainian hands.
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The northern area consists of single dwellings amongst gardens and trees. The southern area is full of high-rises with little green in between.
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Yesterday the head of the Wagner mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video. Standing in front of a number of dead corpses he publicly attacked the Russian minister of defense over an alleged lack of ammunition. He claimed that it had caused those casualties. A day before those troops had tried to further penetrate the upper area and got caught in an ambush. Bad for them but not a cause of serious concern.
'Western' media like to see such Prigozhin tirades as a sign of infighting within the Russian military apparatus. I have long stopped to listen to Prigozhin. Militarily the Wagner troops are just a part of the Russian army and under its command. Prigozhin's concern is marketing for his Wagner enterprise and for the large share he receives from the monthly bill his company sends to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Politically there is no roll for him.
That his claims of lack of ammunition had been just a show was proven some 12 hours after he published his video.
Here are drone shots of the Bakhmut high-rises still in Ukrainian hands after the received a visit by incendiary missiles.
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The same view in infrared. The white spots are burning hot.
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Video of the attack can be seen here and here.
So there is your lack of ammunition. Anything that was outside of the high-rises, trucks, soldiers and supplies, was likely destroyed.
Prigozhin troops have been in the fight for quite some time. They need some rest and will soon move out. The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov admonished Prigozhin for his public stunt. If needed his troops will replace the Wagners and finish the Bakhmut fight. Meanwhile the attention will move to a different front.
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The long announced Ukrainian counter-offensive will probably start on Victory Day, May 9. One axis of the attack will be in the Zaporizhia region towards south in an attempt to reach the sea. But the first important aim is likely the retaking of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant near the city of Enerhodar south of the Dnieper basin. Its economic importance to Ukraine is immense as it can easily sell the electricity the six reactors generate to Europe. There is little other income the Ukraine still has.
The Russian military has asked civilians in 17 towns within 50 kilometer (30 miles) of the current frontline to evacuate the area. The Russian army has also prepared defense lines and moved reserves to the south of the region.
The success of the Ukrainians will depend on the gadgets its 'western' supporters have supplied it with. We may see some unexpected weapons or longer range missiles in the field. There is likely also some new bridging equipment that will help with crossing the Dnieper in the Kherson region for a secondary axis. A third axis, or perhaps a diversion, in the northeast towards Soledar is also possible.
The first days of the new fight will be confusing with lots of false claims and propaganda from both sides. We will all have to sit back and wait until the fog of war rises enough to paint a picture of the new situation.
Posted by b on May 6, 2023 at 16:38 UTC | Permalink
next page »Tokmak looks like it would have to be the primary target for the first push the Ukies make. If the Russians hold it the Ukies can bypass it to Melitopol, but it would remain a thorn in the said of any general advance to the sea.
Posted by: Wokechoke | May 6 2023 17:05 utc | 2
Wagner has a lot of experience now in assault tactics, as do the Chechen's. But in Mariupol, there was more coordination and probably better tactics used than in Bakhmut, where every advance was supported with cross fire covering positions, everything was reconned as close as possible, tanks were covering enemy firing points during advance. The methods for exposing enemy positions and firing points were different and not so costly? All this real experience should be passed to the army and they will.
Some of that was lacking in Bakhmut. Partial speculation and observation.
Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2023 17:09 utc | 3
Why does the image with the incendiary missile strikes say 2022? Is that an old image or one from yesterday?
TY.
Posted by: Wyntre999 | May 6 2023 17:12 utc | 4
Artyomovsk will be fully liberated by May 9. Russia has used incendiary missiles to make sure that this goal is achieved.
The main goal of Ukraine's so called offensive will be PR. They want to draw attention away from their major defeat in Artyomovsk. There is NO CHANCE of this so called offensive succeeding. It will be short lived.
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | May 6 2023 17:14 utc | 5
thanks b. i have to admit to some war-weariness setting in. probably just a phase i'm going thru. so, Ukrainians are going to have a spring offensive after all. we'll see about that i suppose.
Posted by: annie | May 6 2023 17:27 utc | 6
I think the Ukrainian counter-offensive has already begun. What might happen on the 9th is perhaps some symbolic move in the area where Russian army is not, or lightly, occupying. The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant is not only economically important for the Ukronazis but it's also a blackmailing tool.
Posted by: Steve | May 6 2023 17:29 utc | 7
@4 because it's BS, Prigozhin is right if also untactful. Bahkmut was moving right along and it froze up completely. No Ukrainian attacks just some grinding.
Why? An ammo shortage would explain it.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 6 2023 17:30 utc | 8
Wyntre999 | May 6 2023 17:12 utc | 4 "Why does the image with the incendiary missile strikes say 2022?"
Thats the name of the telegram channel.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2023 17:30 utc | 9
Now we can see the clash of two totally different goals for this war.
The Ukraine/NATO fraction: To keep this war going as long and successful as possible, to please the Western sponsors and the media, to make the best of this war which was started to bring down the Russian nation, like the Democrats under Clinton did in the 90ies.
Russia: Simply to destroy the Ukrainian army, to show Ukraine, who is the boss.
During the winter everyone was expecting a big Russian offensive, after the training of the fresh mobilized forces was over.
But Ukraine talked and maneuvered themselves into this offensive, and now it seems like they can't back off anymore.
It's the best thing that could 've happened to the Russians, they couldn't wish for anything better.
They have the chance to destroy the whole army once and for all.
Posted by: cortomaltese | May 6 2023 17:40 utc | 10
Why does the image with the incendiary missile strikes say 2022? Is that an old image or one from yesterday?
Posted by: Wyntre999 | May 6 2023 17:12 utc | 4
If you mean this image:
https://twitter.com/Lying_Troll/status/1654575115605032961/photo/2
Bakhmut_2022 is the name of the telegram account it came from.
Here. https://t.me/Bakhmut_2022/20967
Ignore Neofeudalfuture
Posted by: GT Stroller | May 6 2023 17:40 utc | 11
Russia has Lavrov and Putin.
We have Sullivan, Blinken, Nuland, and Biden.
If this were a sports team and I were general manager, I'd try to trick the Russians into a trade.
I'd even throw in Samantha Power, if necessary.
Posted by: Dosamuno | May 6 2023 17:43 utc | 12
thanks b.. i am like annie here.. i think this pregozhin guy would make a good hollywood actor.. i can’t tell if he is bluffing or what..
Posted by: james | May 6 2023 17:44 utc | 13
As for the information about the downed "dagger" - this is an invention of our specialists. According to our data, nothing was shot down, but this is not the most important thing. The main thing here is that our functionaries work according to the old formula, to please the "sponsors".The purposes of this statement are many.
The first is to show that Russia no longer has a formidable weapon that can get anyone from anywhere. Such a moral factor.
Secondly, this is a PR campaign for Patriot air defense installations. The Office of the President always promotes what sponsors ask for. Most likely it comes as an additional feature from the customer. Previously, they were Bayraktars, then Hymers, and now patriots.Now relations with the Turks have already deteriorated and Bayraktar immediately went out of order and was demonstratively shot down, and then they said that it was the brains of the bird that leaked, and not a piloting error. Although, they could easily say that the pilot-student made a mistake so as not to spoil relations with Turkey and not to ruin their rating and image.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15282
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:46 utc | 15
Or Prigozhin is not entirely wrong or exhausted.
“ Everyone has known about the shortage of ammunition in the NMD zone for a long time, and theft is one of the reasons for this. For such acts at all times and in all states, only one punishment was provided. Only the degree of cruelty of executions differed. But in our kingdom-state, criminals are likely to go free.
As it was recently. In March of this year, the court released on parole the former general director of Voentelekom Alexander Davydov , who stole 1.4 billion rubles. Say, he spent a couple of months in a pre-trial detention center, where he promptly corrected himself, and he will no longer steal on an especially large scale.”
Arranging release on parole of a corrupt official and a swindler in the midst of a special military operation is not just an official crime - it is a contemptuous spit in the face of the entire Russian society. Let me clarify, a swindler has been released, through whose fault dozens and hundreds of our soldiers are dying today. Because it was Voentelekom under Defense Minister Serdyukov who received a lot of money to develop a special closed cellular military communications network, which was supposed to develop the same military Internet, which our troops lack so much today. As a result, there was no military cellular network, and there is no military Internet. Serdyukov under the paternal wing of Chemezov in Rostec, and thieves and swindlers were drawn to the exit from the prisons, ” the military observer is indignantVladislav Shurygin .
Posted by: DG | May 6 2023 17:47 utc | 16
Our source in the OP said that closed sociology for the Office of the President showed a high rating for Zaluzny among Ukrainians, while he has a minimal anti-rating.Bankovaya is aware of the risks for Zelensky in the upcoming presidential campaign, when Zaluzhny may begin to form the image of Dwight Eisenhower or Charles de Gaulle, after the military leader against the backdrop of corruption scandals and negative trends in the country's economy.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17627
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:48 utc | 17
The nuclear industry has tried to avoid the reality that nuclear power plants can become targets in wartime. The evidence for this may become unavoidable if Zaporizhia gets hit in the coming offensive. A British lord once remarked that had nuclear power plants been built in Europe prior to World War 2, no one would be living there now.
The US created a false narrative that Russia was shelling its own troops that occupied Zaporizhia; the narrative was supported by the IAEA inspectors who obviously were ordered to turn a blind eye to the Ukrainian/US-supported attacks on the nuclear power plant (later confirmed by the Times).
While the attacks continued, the Western "solution" to the danger posed by the possible destruction of Zaporizhia was to get Russia to agree to having a "safety zone" established around the plant, with UN peacekeepers stationed there. Apparently Ukraine would then have stopped shelling the plant (with US assistance in targeting).
Obviously no agreement was reached and the plant now seems very much at risk.
The reactors at Zaporizhia are now all shut down, and I assume they are in cold shutdown, where no electric power is required to cool the reactor cores. But the reactor cores are not the only place that contain huge amounts of high-level radioactive fission products. Each reactor also has a spent fuel pool, which is used during refueling, so highly radioactive used uranium fuel rods ("spent" nuclear fuel) can be safely removed from the core and stored underwater (for quite a few years before it can be exposed to air without self-destructing).
A single spent fuel pool contains several times more cesium137 than was released by the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Spent fuel is stored adjacent to the reactors in spent fuel pools, and also storied onsite in dry cask storage. According to Ukrainian sources, there was 2200 tonnes of spent fuel on site in 2017 (more now). The total included both the spent fuel in the pools and in dry cask storage.
The Russians have reportedly attempted to build shelters around the spent fuel. However, this is no guarantee that the spent fuel casks cannot be breached. Should this happen, it would be carried by the winds and would certainly pose a huge threat to anyone exposed to
Unlike US nuclear power plants, Russian plants have their spent fuel pools inside primary containment. It is my impression that the spent fuel in dry cask storage is much more vulnerable to attack that the fuel inside primary containment. However, spent fuel pools require electricity for their cooling systems to operate. The pools must be constantly cooled because of the heat generated by decay of fission products in the spent fuel assemblies. What happens if there is a long-term loss of electric power at the plant, and the diesel generators run out of diesel fuel or are somehow disabled/destroyed during fighting/bombing/shelling of the plant?
Failure to cool the pools can cause them to heat to the point of boiling and boil-off, which would expose the fuel assemblies to steam and air. This would lead to the rupture of the assemblies, and possibly the ignition of those assemblies more recently removed from the reactor. This would release a huge amount of radioactivity. US primary containment includes vents; I don't know if this is the case for Russian primary containment.
For these reasons, I do not accept that nuclear power is "safe and clean".
Posted by: Steven Starr | May 6 2023 17:48 utc | 18
The focus of attention in society has shifted to war and counteroffensive, domestic political problems are now in the background, but their number continues to grow and the opposition is actively using this to attack the authorities.Bankova understands that now Zelensky is entering the most difficult period, in which there are too many unknown factors. If the counteroffensive is successful, then you can write off all the problems and calmly go to the polls, but if there are negative scenarios, then the opposition will become more active and remember all the attacks of the authorities: the loss of territories, the dead, the IMF slave loan and the huge debts of the state.
In such a scenario, the elections are to be carried out by suicide, which means that the scenario is being considered to abandon them altogether under the pretext of martial law and Russian aggression. To do this, the SBU must form lists of opposition actors in the country that are subject to cleansing, and the parliament must pass a number of bills that will allow the President's Office to keep the situation in the country from internal enemies.
Now for Bankova, the main opponents are Poroshenko and Prytula from the opposition, as well as Zaluzhny, who has support in society and the army.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17628
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:50 utc | 19
It’s foolish to suggest that Russia can fight with the combined industrial capacity of Europe and America and many other nations joined to them. And they haven’t even provided Ukraine with advanced weapons yet. It has now become abundantly clear that Russia has fallen into America’s trap.
Posted by: ArmoDude | May 6 2023 17:50 utc | 20
In the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, discontent is growing due to disrespect from politicians and the top of the Ukrainian government. This was stated by Ukrainian Major General Serhiy Krivonos in an interview with the Pryamiy TV channel.“The authorities have adjusted the rules of the game to suit themselves. <…> Everyone is already tired of this disrespect for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the part of politicians,” he believes.
Kryvonos stressed that the Ukrainian military is tired from the fighting. According to him, instead of their support, the soldiers hear general phrases in Zelensky's statements. The major general noted that the Ukrainian authorities cannot even provide for all the needs of the front in full.
“The military sees that the law does not work in their favor for them. <…> They are silent, but still patience is running out,” he stressed.
According to Kryvonos, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny prefers not to mention disagreements with the top of the Ukrainian government, because he is a regular military man who is used to maintaining discipline. At the same time, Krivonos clarified that it should not be ruled out that the commander-in-chief would intervene if the situation worsened.
https://t.me/ZeRada1/13562
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:52 utc | 21
Our source in the OP said that in the General Staff, when preparing a counteroffensive, they are focusing on the capture of Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.The operation is being developed by British intelligence and the SBU so that the details remain classified until the last moment. The main task is to take the nuclear power plant and gain a foothold there, which will help create a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17632
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:54 utc | 22
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:48 utc | 17
Bankovaya is not happy with the growing rating of Zaluzhny and his contacts in the West, through which political advances are distributed to him, so far - carefully, through army structures. Generals Chris Cavoli and Mark Milli actively communicate with him, through whom political messages are broadcast.The Office of the President has limited the mention of the Commander-in-Chief in the Ukrainian media, but this does not affect his popularity and support in society in any way, which has been shown by closed sociology.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17633
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:56 utc | 23
Waiting on those Panther tanks.......well prepared positional defenses... a massive armor reserve...
Does anyone think the Russian generals have forgotten Kursk?
James @14
On the contrary James, we can be persuaded to take Samantha the Shrill, on one condition: that you keep all current Western leaders in their positions for another decade.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 17:56 utc | 25
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧 A significant exchange took place today.45 "Azov" were exchanged for 3 pilots of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
This is positive news for families exchanged on both sides, and we congratulate them on this.
Significant exchange. The pilots of the Aerospace Forces were the main, today, the exchange fund of Ukraine, and in general the second in terms of "cost" for the Kremlin after Medvedchuk.
Russia really wanted to pull them out.
One of our interlocutors says that the exchange opens the way to the next stage of the negotiation process. Moreover, the good for the exchange came from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and so it was ready to give 45 "Azov" for them☝🏻
https://t.me/ZeRada1/13572
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:58 utc | 26
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:58 utc | 27
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Prisoner of war exchange: Russian pilots returned homeThe Russian Defense Ministry reported the return of three people from Ukrainian captivity - two lieutenant colonels and a major of the Russian Aerospace Forces. They will be delivered by military transport aircraft for further treatment and rehabilitation.
All three were shot down over enemy territory over a year ago. Negotiations for their release went on for many months, but each time the release failed. One can only imagine what the Russian officers had to go through: just look at a small list of tortures and humiliations to which prisoners are subjected in the institutions of the Kiev regime.
❗️As far as one can judge, now there is not a single Russian pilot in the hands of the enemy. And may it continue to be so.
In exchange for three military personnel, the Russian side extradited 45 members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who surrendered a year ago at the Mariupol Azovstal . Among them are 35 privates and sergeants, as well as 10 officers.
In this case, there can be no talk about the discrepancy between the numbers: the main thing is that after many efforts, our people were finally returned home.
#Rybar
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/44817
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 18:07 utc | 27
I wonder if what is widely taken as a shortage of ammunition is actually a rationing of ammunition by RF MoD in order to throttle / regulate the rate of attack across the fronts.
In which case, one of the things that Prigozhin does not get (or more likely does not agree with) is that Russia does not want to openly state that they would prefer not to force Ukraine to retreat across the Dniepr, where NATO's logistics are stronger and Russia's much more challenging. For that reason, Russia wants to keep NATO's Ukraine army fired up--able to sell their on-the-verge-of-turning-the-tide narrative--to stay in the Donbas kill box for as long as Ukraine & the West have the mobilization potential to send.
Russia has adopted an economy of force / attritional warfare strategy that is the more or less ideal counter to NATO's own. Westard arrogance is such that--as was the case with crushing Russia's economy, or presuming that financialized GDP is a measure of real defense-industrial power--they are remarkably impervious still to the realization that they are not winning and have no real prospects of winning an attritional proxy war against Russia.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:09 utc | 28
Yevgeny Prigozhin may be an idiot, a greedy entrepreneur or a megalomaniac.
But he serves a great purpose in an argument with the "Russia is a dictatorship-Ukraine is a liberal democracy crowd."
Can you imagine if Yevgeny were in Ukraine?
He'd have been tortured and disappeared long ago. He's a constant advertisement for Russia as an Open Society. He ought to get a Pulitzer. Soros should be praising him.
If he were in Canada, criticising NATO, he's be completely ignored. In a country where retired Defence Attaches cannot share their honest and informed opinions without being threatened with economic ruin by secret policemen Prighozin would simplu not be tolerated.
So pay no more heed to him than he deserves but recognise the purpose he serves- as a hypocrite's nightmare.
Posted by: bevin | May 6 2023 18:10 utc | 29
Prigozhin:“I thank Ramzan Akhmatovich for agreeing, having, most likely, the opportunity to obtain everything necessary and all the necessary resources, to take our positions in Bakhmut.
I am already contacting his representatives in order to start transferring positions immediately, so that on May 10, at 00.00, exactly at the moment when, according to our calculations, we will completely exhaust our combat potential, our comrades will take our places and continue the assault the village of Bakhmut.
A little more than two square kilometers remained in Bakhmut. Bakhmut will be taken, no doubt, by the forces of Akhmat."
https://t.me/sitreports/8271
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 18:10 utc | 30
A question.... I just read a note on line that Gonzalo Lira has been arrested and sent to prison.... in Ukraine. I have watched his utube visits-- he is informed and interesting. I wondered how he managed to survive in Ukraine, talking online about the sins of Ukraine. Does anyone on this site know about this?
Posted by: medo | May 6 2023 18:15 utc | 31
All this talk about Bakhmut as Ukraine lowers the drafting age from 27 to 25 to swell the ranks of their armed forces and are getting ready for their counter offensive with NATO trained troops and weapons. Meanwhile none of Russia's 'allies' are worth sh|t. Sitting back and watching while Russia does all the heavy lifting by itself. Good luck people of Russia, you're going to need it.
Posted by: bored | May 6 2023 18:16 utc | 32
The main goal of so called "Ukrainian Counteroffensive" is to distract European taxpayers attention from the 1000 million euros that have been diverted to the MIC and which will manage BlackRock and which have been extracted from social necessities investment as confirmed by US foreign agent Borrell....The European Comission acts as US government envoy in the EU....
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 6 2023 18:24 utc | 33
medo | May 6 2023 18:15 utc | 32
"I wondered how he managed to survive in Ukraine"
Gonzalo Lira was taken by the SBU before, they had to free him coz of international pressure of the scene.
He is an American citizen and well known journalist, I don't think they can keep him for long in prison.
Posted by: cortomaltese | May 6 2023 18:27 utc | 34
Going preparing for a possible false flag, mega terrorist attack on European infrastructure or magnicide, as the "counteroffensive" will coincides in time with NATO bianual exercise....
Recall that past "exercise" was instrumental for the blowing up of NS pipelines, the energy artery of Europe...and from then on we are on life support by expensive US GNL which has killed the European industry on behalf of US industry....
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 6 2023 18:30 utc | 35
Posted by: oldhippie | May 6 2023 17:39 utc | 400
Re Gonzalo Lira aka Coach Red Pill. So let me get this straight. This scion of the numero uno family in Chile, loaded with money himself, and with connections all over the CIA, is spanging (begging for "spare change") $5 and $10/month at his Patreon channel: https://www.patreon.com/CoachRedPill
Of course, it's possible he's so eccentric he doesn't notice the absurdity of a rich man begging for trivial sums. Sane eccentric e writing explain obliviousness to risks of publishing controversial videos about Ukraine situation while residing in Ukraine.
Posted by: Revelo | May 6 2023 18:32 utc | 36
Last I heard the FEBA is 1,000kms long, yet we're only looking at some tiny portions of it all. If the Ukies are amassed in one area, then they're weak in others. What we've seen so far from Russian aerospace forces isn't anywhere near what they can deliver to a particular region with troop and equipment concentrations. Yes, we've seen some hits on those, but much more damage can and will be done. The current Zaporozhye weather isn't optimal nor is it supposed to be overly wet, although the overcast will impede satellite recon for both sides. Without armor and air, the Ukies don't really have any chance of success. Will Zelensky return from hiding in Western Europe to direct this offensive? And what does the Russian general staff have planned behind all the distracting hysteria? I've no doubt that Putin will announce something in his May 9 Speech. The Security Council did meet yesterday to discuss "a number of issues related to the preparation of the celebration of Victory Day." And rehearsals are ongoing in a normal manner. I see Lavrov has written an article for the Russia in Global Affairs publication that I haven't digested yet and will eventually post to my VK. All we can do it wait and see what transpires.
There may be a major attack on the NPP. Little else.
Unless Russia finally decides to end this war on their own terms. Also not likely.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 6 2023 18:38 utc | 38
Robert Habeck interviewed by Slomka on TV was asked about Germans suffering energy and food price inflation - to which the Green Fool responded: "We are quasi-Kriegsteilnehmer......"........stunning admission on the Baerbock Scale of Stupidity
Then Berlin Police ban all displays of Ukrainian or Russian flags, martial music or displays near Soviet War Memorials in Berlin on Day of German Capitulation................
Berlin Administrative Court lifts ban on Ukrainian displays..............
Should be a very dangerous situation for perceptions of Germany
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 6 2023 18:39 utc | 39
Sergey Lavrov has exponentially more intelligence, charisma, and charm than the entire Biden administration. I'm not the only American who hopes for a Russian victory in Ukraine, the collapse of NATO and the UE, and the expulsion and imprisonment of everyone in and associated with the current U.S. government.
Posted by: Dosamuno | May 6 2023 18:40 utc | 40
Cortomaltese @10
I concur with most of the thoughtful points you make--notably regarding the US/NATO now settling for prolonging the war after the failure of:
Plan A (isolating & crushing the RF economy / Palace coup / color revolution)
plus
Plan B (total RF war of 1 million to conquer & occupy Ukraine--w/ 250,000 KIA to clean out Donbas in full frontal assaults; then the beginning of the Gehlenist / Afghanistan 3.0 insurgency, leading to Plan A on a longer time scale)
But I don't think Russia's goals are primarily concerned with Ukraine at all. Yes, of course, incremental and eventually final elimination of Ukraine's mobilization potential and elimination of Nazified formations and organizations.
That said, I wonder if Russia is not now firmly embarked on--minimally-- a new European security architecture along the December 21 ultimatum lines and, failing that, a battle to break NATO and even to push the US out of Europe.
Through the Nazi Gehlenist programs run by the CIA against the USSR, then the weaponization of Islamist radicalism in Afghanistan, Chechnya & Syria against USSR then Russia, now with the US being unwilling to back off even when it's clear they can't win--lately we've seen Nuland approve publicly attacks on Crimea, and Blinken yesterday saying it would not criticize Ukraine for assassinating Putin--I think the US may have finally convinced Russia after 70 years that the moment may, unfortunately, have arrived for a direct military confrontation with the US.
True, the trends of Western decline that has made Russia and China want to play for time suggest that 10 years from now Russia may face a weaker adversary, but on balance Russia may have concluded that it cannot expect to ever find a Western leadership less prepared and competent than now.
I suspect they've made a solemn pact with China to do everything possible (short of losing) to manage the escalation to keep things short of going nuclear, but if the West does go nuclear, then all promises and all hopes are dust.
We'll see--perhaps enlightenment will come to all of us in blinding flash.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:45 utc | 41
Today's Medvedev Telegram remarks about Germany:
On the price of traditional German support for Ukrainian NazisIt seems that the vaunted German pragmatism again, as in 1933, gave a real failure already in the XXI century. It is too expensive for the main male of the European economy to carefully lick the well-known place of the overseas owner. After the "deadly" number of sanctions packages against Russia, we have to calculate the wild losses ourselves. According to the Institute of German Economics, by the end of this year, the total damage from the Ukrainian crisis to the German economy could reach three hundred (!) billion dollars. This is almost 8 percent of Germany's total GDP. The growth compared to last year is more than doubled.
For more than a year, the Fritz did nothing but engage in sophisticated sadomasochism. Arrogantly, crooking their snouts, they abandoned Russian hydrocarbons, thanks to which their economy could develop successfully. The owner is the master, what can you say. But our resources still needed to find a replacement. Now you can't go to Siberia for oil, gas, coal and firewood. And the United States, Norway, the Netherlands, the countries of the Middle East are not very ready to supply their energy resources on any favorable terms for the Germans.
It is not clear how now the German economy, which has turned into a servant of amers and was harshly screwed up by its own morons from the office of the Bundeschancellor, innocently blinking its eyes, explain to its citizens why it failed to "observe innocence and acquire capital." Where, for example, to get one trillion euros to ensure the "ecological transition" of its energy system and get rid of the "damned Russian fuel" forever. Abroad will definitely not help here. And their own funds will flow for a long time to help businesses, which are desperately looking for salvation in Pindostan from the cretinism of their government.
What is the main result of the violent anti-Russian dance of the Fritz to the Washington tambourine? Having put an end to energy cooperation with Russia, the German government could not find a driver for the effective development of its country. The wallets of German citizens have already seriously leaked, more than 50 percent of the population is in favor of the resignation of Scholz's cabinet of "liver sausage". The leading German trade unions will soon be brutally pushing for higher wages. And business, in turn, will again have to go with an outstretched hand to the state, beg for subsidies for the sake of their own survival.
It turns out a vicious circle, from which it is very difficult to escape. At this rate, Germany will soon lose its political and economic leadership in a "united Europe" for a long time. To the delight of other European grandees - France and Britain. This would mean the complete collapse of those political imbeciles who said that the Germans would easily live without Russia. The end of their inglorious careers, and perhaps much darker consequences.
Then, according to the law of denial of negation, dreams of the Fourth Reich and a new Fuhrer will be revived instead of impotents from the "liverwurst community". Moreover, around Germany, as a still barking, but weakening dog, a pack of shrill mongrels has formed that constantly want to eat. Like Poland and its Baltic tail. And if they do not receive fresh food in the form of Ukrainian lands, they will ruthlessly bite their elderly leader.
Yes, Germany is indeed an occupied colony. Too bad for former East Germans to be colonized in such a manner. Perhaps they should demand to be partitioned again.
There's still a lot of denazification to do in Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67DBWr2mPl0
Posted by: Apollyon | May 6 2023 18:48 utc | 43
Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:45 utc | 42--
Read Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept for your answer.
The most telegraphed offensive in history is about to begin. An offensive without air superiority into the teeth of dug in Russian defenses. What could go wrong....
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 6 2023 18:54 utc | 45
...one of the things that Prigozhin does not get (or more likely does not agree with) is that Russia does not want to openly state that they would prefer not to force Ukraine to retreat across the Dniepr, where NATO's logistics are stronger and Russia's much more challenging. For that reason, Russia wants to keep NATO's Ukraine army fired up--able to sell their on-the-verge-of-turning-the-tide narrative--to stay in the Donbas kill box for as long as Ukraine & the West have the mobilization potential to send.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:09 utc | 29
Prigozhin stating that the liberators of Bakhmut are out of ammo and ready to quit plays right into that plan, doesn't it?
That's how I see it.
Posted by: wagelaborer | May 6 2023 19:03 utc | 46
" A day before those troops had tried to further penetrate the upper area and got caught in an ambush. Bad for them but not a cause of serious concern. "
What a heartless, insensitive thing to say. Cant wait till war comes to B's Germany and his family. I'll just say " its too bad for them ". What a douche bag.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:08 utc | 47
Wyntre999 | May 6 2023 17:12 utc | 4 "Why does the image with the incendiary missile strikes say 2022?"
Thats the name of the telegram channel.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2023 17:30 utc | 9
------------------------------------------------------
Good catch their Peter, I was scratching my head on that one myself.
Posted by: Ed | May 6 2023 19:13 utc | 48
" The Russian military has asked civilians in 17 towns within 50 kilometer (30 miles) of the current frontline to evacuate the area. The Russian army has also prepared defense lines and moved reserves to the south of the region. "
And this is supposed to be a good thing ? At this point Russia should be able to crush any offensive as soon as it begins, By removing civilians they're preparing for the possibility that they might not. How is that even possible at this stage ? Is Russia even a superpower at this point ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:14 utc | 49
@48
but hopefully you and your troll spawn will be first....
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | May 6 2023 19:14 utc | 50
Posted by: karlof1 | May 6 2023 18:47 utc | 43
If that passage hadn't been preceded by the name of its author, I could have been persuaded it was Zakharova.
Posted by: David Levin | May 6 2023 19:18 utc | 51
Kadyrov’s Akhmat special forces have reportedly arrived in Bakhmut. Wagner fighters have been invited to join the Chechen units.
https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1654927930018103296
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:14 utc | 50
Based on past experiences, Ukraine will kill all the - in their terms "Russian collaborators". That means they will kill all the Russian speaking population they can get their hands on in areas which are currently controlled by Russia. It's mildly put a necessary precaution to move them. Even if they won't necessarily occupy some area, they could still be able to shell it indiscriminately.
Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2023 19:20 utc | 52
unimperator @ 3
...in Mariupol, there was more coordination and probably better tactics used than in Bakhmut...Some of that was lacking in Bakhmut.
Mariupol was far from Ukrainian lines and pretty much sealed off from reinforcement early on, recall the desperate NATO helicopter flights around Russian held terrain to get men in and out, the Azovstal stronghold was starved out. In Bakhmut supplies and reinforcements just kept coming in and still are even at the miserable end. The RF pullback from over extended offensive lines to a managable defensive position last November came with a high price, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Ugledar are that price, there was no way to not pay it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 19:21 utc | 53
Posted by: PaulaFoxu | May 6 2023 17:57 utc | 26
I'm not seeing how your comment is relevant to the topic of this thread. For example, is your site monetized to contribute toward aiding Ukraine? (Note: this is not a suggestion.)
Posted by: David Levin | May 6 2023 19:22 utc | 54
The first days of the new fight will be confusing with lots of false claims and propaganda from both sides. We will all have to sit back and wait until the fog of war rises enough to paint a picture of the new situation.
Well said, b.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 6 2023 19:23 utc | 55
Deplorable Commissar @ 50
Deplorable Commissar watches Jackson Hinckle, well I'll be dipped in...
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 19:27 utc | 56
Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:45 utc | 42
No one will go nuclear, it's all about the money.
USA is bankrupt for a long time now, needs to destroy the competition like Europe, needs to wage wars, needs to threaten and conquer and take advantage of others and ...
US politics has become completely bonkers, Biden saying he will run for a 2nd term is insane, the Democrats are out of their mind,
but no one will start a nuclear war.
The change will come from within the USA, very soon.
Posted by: cortomaltese | May 6 2023 19:28 utc | 57
" One of our interlocutors says that the exchange opens the way to the next stage of the negotiation process. Moreover, the good for the exchange came from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and so it was ready to give 45 "Azov" for them☝🏻
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 17:58 utc | 27 "
The same Azov that were supposed to be executed on sight. How many more are there captured and still alive ? Let the copium excuses begin. Go Russia !
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:29 utc | 58
Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:14 utc | 50
They should have been evacuated already, it was clear they can't stop the shelling on civilians there. Even more now when DU was sent and UN doesn't even want to condemn its use.
Posted by: rk | May 6 2023 19:29 utc | 59
" Meanwhile none of Russia's 'allies' are worth sh|t. Sitting back and watching while Russia does all the heavy lifting by itself. Good luck people of Russia, you're going to need it.
Posted by: bored | May 6 2023 18:16 utc | 33 "
China, paging duplicitous China, please pick up the phone.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:32 utc | 60
Why would the Chechens be so unhesitant to rush into a situation where there is not enough ammo and artillery? Hmm... more weirdness.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 19:32 utc | 61
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Bakhmut trap: Prigozhin decided to deceive the Armed Forces of Ukraine and staged a performance - representative of Zelensky,Mikhaylo PodolyakMikhail Podolyak answered questions about the statements of the head of the Wagner PMC about leaving Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
▪️ "Ukrainian intelligence knows that the Donetsk group has no significant shell shortage."
▪️ "No one will run anywhere either on May 10, or on May 5, or on May 9, and no one will run at all"
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60920
Posted by: Down South | May 6 2023 19:32 utc | 62
Russia: Simply to destroy the Ukrainian army, to show Ukraine, who is the boss.
Posted by: cortomaltese | May 6 2023 17:40 utc | 10
-------------------------------------------
Corto Maltese was a fantasy comic strip. Were you just being funny, or perhaps your point just flew over my head.
Surely, you know that Russia (President Putin and many clear and levelheaded Russin diplomats) tried for years to convince NATO and the US from starting this war. Just weeks before the SMO started Putin tried to reason with the criminal Joe Biden to no avail. The die was cast many years ago, and the day of reckoning is upon us.
The issue of Russia being "boss" has nothing to do with this US criminal proxy war; it is all about US Imperialist Hegemony. I suspect that you, as I do, must feel the sense of foreboding as May 9th approaches.
Too many lives have been lost already.
Posted by: Ed | May 6 2023 19:37 utc | 63
" @48
but hopefully you and your troll spawn will be first....
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | May 6 2023 19:14 utc | 51 "
Do say, which pathetic nation do you hail from fool ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:38 utc | 64
To Deplorable Commissar:
Evacuating the border area (30 miles) is probably directed against terrorist incursions. One of the Azov leaders bragged recently about blitz actions across the border, occupying villages and taking hostages in order to exchange the Russian village for ceding an Ukrainian village. This conflict is asymmetric, never forget. Hostage taking has to be avoided, think of the hostage taking in the Moscow theatre (2002), the school in Beslan (2004). It is a grueling experience for local populations.
Posted by: Teraspol | May 6 2023 19:39 utc | 65
Karlof1 @45
Thank you for the link to Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept. I have listened to Mercouris discussing aspects of it. Some of these changes seem profound--though less sweeping and evangelical than the USSR's opposition to capitalism everywhere, to set Russia up as opposing hegemony everywhere it's encountered is still much broader in scope than previously.
I was especially curious about the re-situation of the RF not just as a Eurasian civilization-state--arguably there are at least 3 others (india, China, Iran & perhaps great Arabia as well as Turkey)--but as a EuroPacific entity also. As far as I can see, there is no other country in the world able to make this geographical claim.
I would welcome your thoughts on this, but it strikes me as an echo or trace of the Lisbon to Vladivostok aspiration. President Putin has been widely criticized (and defended) for participating in what was ever more clearly the fiction of Minsk. VVP would be the last leader, I think, to be duped by the likes of Merkel, Hollande, Petroshenko & Zelensky. Russia too was playing for time, but I'll conjecture that VVP's fondest geopolitical ambition would have been for Russia to play the indispensable bridging role--a site of economic and cultural fusion--between Europe and Asia.
In this version, the Russian-speaking diaspora would have been full and even privileged participants in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and even perhaps Georgia, rather than populations that Russia was called to defend militarily.
Perhaps in the EuroPacific conception, the dream lives on?
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 19:40 utc | 66
@ paul damascene.. thanks for all your posts..i agree with@ 47 wagelaborer’s response to one of them..
@ bevin.. that is true what you say about prigozhin. i bet most miss that..
@ karlof1.. thanks for the quote from medvedev…. germany is whacked! i also appreciate the updates from @ paul greenwood on this topic.. thanks paul..
————
about gonzalo lira.. i have never really undterstood this guy.. rich chilean dude who married a ukrainian and has american citizenship.. oldhippie says he is chilean aristocracy. so nobody will touch him.. maybe it’s a ransom they are looking for now? who nose…. it has never made any sense to me.. april 22 or here may 2023… great publicity stunt the last time though.. is this another one?
Posted by: james | May 6 2023 19:44 utc | 67
USA would drop 500lb bombs everyday on terrorists, the public agrees, it's time.
Posted by: Sandman | May 6 2023 19:44 utc | 68
" Evacuating the border area (30 miles) is probably directed against terrorist incursions. One of the Azov leaders bragged recently about blitz actions across the border, occupying villages and taking hostages in order to exchange the Russian village for ceding an Ukrainian village.
Posted by: Teraspol | May 6 2023 19:39 utc | 67 "
Why wasnt this a concern before ? Asymmetrical warfare doesn't need major offensives to be carried out ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:45 utc | 69
" They should have been evacuated already, it was clear they can't stop the shelling on civilians there. Even more now when DU was sent and UN doesn't even want to condemn its use.
Posted by: rk | May 6 2023 19:29 utc | 61 "
If Russia cant stop Ukie shelling, how will it stop NATO shelling ? The US military is not as incompetent as many of you hope.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:47 utc | 70
" Deplorable Commissar watches Jackson Hinckle, well I'll be dipped in...
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 19:27 utc | 58 "
Never seen him in my life. Should I watch ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:49 utc | 71
Pure lunacy. CNN now gloating about american patriot missile defense intercepting a kinzhal 🙄
Posted by: NJH | May 6 2023 19:51 utc | 72
" Based on past experiences, Ukraine will kill all the - in their terms "Russian collaborators". That means they will kill all the Russian speaking population they can get their hands on in areas which are currently controlled by Russia.
Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2023 19:20 utc | 54 "
I understand, but re-read my comment. Russia should be able to wipe the Ukie military off the map at this point. Most of the patrons here have been saying that for months now.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:53 utc | 73
Deplorable Commissar @ 73
Never seen him in my life. Should I watch?
No need, good source for the kids, nice clean cut, well mannered youngster, smarter and better informed than I was at his age. I scroll MoA bottom up so I read @ 54 first and mistakenly thought the link was provided by you. Hinkle didn't seem your style.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 20:02 utc | 74
I don’t agree with PCR on most of his Russia analysis, however, he did ask one question: “Where is the Russian Army?”… pointing out the first six months of the conflict was really the 2 militias (lpr & dpr), Chechens & Wagner, with Russian army as supporting. Then came the drawback from Khearson etc & partial mobilization.
Since then, the LDR & DPR joined in with Russia military, Chechens recedes & Wagner continues with Bahkmut.
All in all, aside from support, flank cover, occasional missile & air campaigns, I’ve yet to see anything the actual Russian Army has done other than hold the line and counter fire. Most KIA numbers have been generated by Wagner, if “attrition “ and “demilitarization” is the goal.
So, it’s probably just as well, and time for the Russian Army to take over, the majority of the urban assault for Bahkmut is done.
If the Russia SMO is to hang out on a defensive line and folly shells & bombs back & forth, till one of you runs out, don’t need Wagner anymore. Otherwise, the question again would be:
“Where is the Russian Army?”…waiting on NATO to join probably…
I get I’m simplifying… but it’s not complicated. It doesn’t matter if Progozen is “political”, it’s been like 10-11 months total just on Bakmut? So, hardly blame him for seeing “finish line” and getting stalled by bureaucratic hurdles that are common in the military.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2023 20:02 utc | 75
I dont have a problem with Pregozhin. He and Wagner are a spotlight shining on the institutional Russian Army. They won't be able to hide failure behind an institutional smoke screen. If they have success, they will bank even more credibility.
Pregozhin ruffles feathers, but Wagner serves a purpose in pressing necessary reform on the Russian Army.
The Bakhmut operation was ordered by Suvrokin last October. It's purpose was to lure the Ukies into a killing field. Since the operation began in earnest last November 200 days have passed during which ~ 500 Ukie effectives were either killed or seriously wounded each day. This operation accounted for ~ 100,000 Ukie dead/seriously wounded, as confirmed by Prigozhin in his statement that Wagner eliminated ~ 15,000 Ukies in April, alone.
The latest "Rant" was a maskirovka operation for the express purpose of luring Ukie forces into one last "push", thus decimating a large part of their reserves... Reserves accumulated for the much touted Counter-offensive... It worked...
Between the Bakhmut losses... and the deep rear strikes at Ukie ammo/fuel/force massing locations.... It is likely the accumulated force for the counter attack has been halved, or reduced by 67%.... and the Ukies have yet to make it to the start line...
Assuming the Ukies do attack.... without air cover.... against defensive lines in depth...
I estimate their force will be seriously mauled like the forces they sent against the Russians in Kherson...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 6 2023 20:08 utc | 76
This is notable, I had caught just a few brief mentions on TG channels, part of the MoD punch list so it did happen but it seemed a minor strike, if true strange it wasn't played up more:
I find this a decent channel:
It was a Brilliant OP NATO instructors were Destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Chernihiv
The vid says "raid behind enemy lines" so RF planes managed to fly in and out of Ukrainian territory? That would be the real news here, anyone have more info?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2023 20:11 utc | 77
If ammunition was being withheld to the Wagners one plausible explanation for the infighting is sibling rivalry. Wagners are mercs therefore I assume paid more than the regular Russian soldiers. Wagner group's highly publicized success in Maripol likely created petty jealousy among the ranks and generals, so rationing ammo to Wagners to dampen their success wouldn't be surprising. The Russian MOD needs to remind all soldiers to suspend their misguided animosity and not to be at cross purposes with their partners. Like players at a blackjack table, they're playing to beat the dealer, not each other.
Posted by: Willow | May 6 2023 20:11 utc | 78
“Nuland approve publicly attacks on Crimea, and Blinken yesterday saying it would not criticize Ukraine for assassinating Putin”
Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 18:45 utc | 42
They are Straussians (neo-talmudists) infesting the US State Department and following their genocidal plans against current "Amalek," the Slavic people. The neo-talmudists are devoid of conscience, intelligence, and dignity. The aggressive shamelessness and tribal cohesiveness of neo-talmudists made the US government susceptible to their genocidal projects. The ever-dishonorable MIC is happy to be a tool for western banksters in their crusade (major Looting Expedition) against Russia. Note that neo-talmudists have been the most active Nazifiers of Ukraine (despite the usual profitable noise about "nazi & hitler").
Straussians are new Jewish Bolsheviks ready to spill oceans of blood and create mounds of human flesh to attain “full-spectrum dominance.” https://www.voltairenet.org/article217976.html
Beginning in 1949, the German Jewish philosopher Leo Strauss taught at the University of Chicago. He soon formed a small group of Jewish disciples from among his students. According to him, the democracies had shown their inability to protect the Jews from the Nazi final solution. To prevent this tragedy from happening again … he advised them to build their own dictatorship. Several of the members of this sect have held very high positions in the United States and Israel. One of the characteristics of this group is that they are ready for anything. For example, they wanted to return Iraq to the stone age. This is indeed what they did. For them, all sacrifices are possible, including for themselves, as long as they remain the first; not the best, the first.Posted by: Cerena | May 6 2023 20:11 utc | 79
@ deplorable commissar. no offence, but maybe russia has a different concept about how to move forward here then you do and maybe that is okay? i dunno.. maybe there is a job opening in the russian military strategy planning, and you rk and shadowbanned could all submit your resumes? in the meantime, consider posting less and observing more…. i think the saying goes something like this..
we have 1 mouth, but we have 2 ears for a reason.. cheers.
Posted by: james | May 6 2023 20:16 utc | 80
Well, we have comment 26 and not much different in intellectual content the comments of Deplorable Commissar, but if B tolerates this, why not, it's his blog.
But a thought experiment:
the west provokes until a nuclear war erupts.
The billionaires sit cozily in a bunker in New Zealand or wherever.
But all the big cities are gone. The workforce is dead or dying.
All the cattle are gone and there won't be no harvest.
So, the bodyguards of the billionaires are getting hungry after some time. They can't eat the gold and diamonds. But they can eat the food reserves and ultimately the billionaires themselves because it are the bodyguards who have the guns. Read The Road if you want to understand that scenario.
Now I would have thought the billionaires were clever enough to think that out. It seems they are not.
Posted by: Anthony | May 6 2023 20:17 utc | 81
RE: “bored” & “Deplorable Commissar”
" Meanwhile none of Russia's 'allies' are worth sh|t. Sitting back and watching while Russia does all the heavy lifting by itself. Good luck people of Russia, you're going to need it.
Posted by: bored | May 6 2023 18:16 utc | 33 "
“China, paging duplicitous China, please pick up the phone.”
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 19:32 utc | 62
I agree 100%… the only “ally” straight up was North Korea offering 200, 000 troops—- I’d be only phone, signing a security pact & tell Kim Yong Un to see that their 200,000 are boarded on a train Monday, with the mission of securing Lviv and all Nazi strongholds …”enemy of my enemy “… and all that stuff… lol 😂…. I know… I’m daydreaming….
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2023 20:19 utc | 82
" Posted by: Anthony | May 6 2023 20:17 utc | 83 "
The problem with folks like you is that they assume they know every aspect of reality and all potentialities. That is the arrogance fools.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 20:20 utc | 83
" @ deplorable commissar. no offence, but maybe russia has a different concept about how to move forward here then you do and maybe that is okay?
we have 1 mouth, but we have 2 ears for a reason.. cheers.
Posted by: james | May 6 2023 20:16 utc | 82 "
I didnt post most of today and yesterday, consider this my catch up time. But, thanks for your concern.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 20:22 utc | 84
In the Kharkov region, crows carry Petal mines, mining the territories already cleared by sappers.
Residents of Izyum report the problem. And in the Kharkov Zoo they confirm: crows are really capable of carrying such objects weighing 80 grams.
Posted by: la bouteille | May 6 2023 20:24 utc | 85
The problem with folks like you is that they assume they know every aspect of reality and all potentialities. That is the arrogance fools.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 20:20 utc | 85
Indeed. Pots and kettles son, pots and kettles...
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 6 2023 20:29 utc | 86
Where is The RaF?
Securing roughly 25% percent if Ukraines territory, building back destroyed citys and energy/water infrastructure. Demilitarize NATO/UA all the while keeping civillian losses at an absolute minimun. Denazifying the Kiev scum slowly but steady with daily confirmed numbers, and you have the audacity to ask where they are you should show a little bit more respect.
Posted by: Rabbit | May 6 2023 20:30 utc | 87
" Indeed. Pots and kettles son, pots and kettles...
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 6 2023 20:29 utc | 88 "
Do you guys " tag team " often, Or is he just someone special in your life ? Its Ok, LBTQ and all that.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 20:31 utc | 88
@Anthony, post #83, I agree, but what the elite are not realizing is that if nuclear war occurs, Russia is not likely to announce a nuclear attack. They'll deliberately hide the time and do it suddenly with no warning.
The elite will be roasted along with other much poorer people. They'll quickly learn all about radiation!
Posted by: Firefly | May 6 2023 20:35 utc | 89
1. This is a glacial pace. How many months have they been in Bakhmut?
2. How many times have we heard the "any day now" from this corner? I have seen Bakhmut about to fall posts for several months now.
3. From a Ukrainian point of view, the key thing is that they still hold the line at the town. Who cares if it's 90% or 10%? The main thing is that the Russians haven't washed over the town and moved on to the next one.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2023 20:35 utc | 90
Paul Damascene | May 6 2023 19:40 utc | 68
I watched an interview of Alina Lipp some time back. At one point, she mentioned how much Germany had changed in the last ten years. I have seen the same thing happen here in Australia. I assume much of Europe would have changed greatly since 2014 and the Europe Russia has been looking at since just before and into the military operation is a very different Europe to pre 2014. The power of propaganda.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2023 20:37 utc | 91
At this moment the name of the poster appears at the bottom of the post. Perhaps putting the name of the poster at the top would make it easier to skip posts by trolls?
Posted by: Passerby | May 6 2023 20:38 utc | 92
@85
totally irrelevant.
But I won't go in discussion with you, because all you want to do is to contaminate this forum. Trolls and the pornography posters probably have the same masters behind them. It's despicable. Go look in the mirror, you will see an old Dorian Gray picture.
Posted by: Anthony | May 6 2023 20:41 utc | 93
1. This is a glacial pace. How many months have they been in Bakhmut?
2. How many times have we heard the "any day now" from this corner? I have seen Bakhmut about to fall posts for several months now.
3. From a Ukrainian point of view, the key thing is that they still hold the line at the town. Who cares if it's 90% or 10%? The main thing is that the Russians haven't washed over the town and moved on to the next one.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2023 20:35 utc | 92
Yes, it is so slow the war is effectively stagnant. It seems Russia just doesn't want to put much effort in the war and is content if a few militia's barely hold the line or make very slow advances. Meanwhile Ukrainians attack Russian territory, continually send saboteurs to test Russia's border, carry out assassination and terror attempts and continue to shell civilians and destroy infrastructure in the Donbass, yet people on blogs like this claim it is a purposeful "grinding" policy meant to destroy the Ukrainian military. But now it looks like Russia's chief and almost only "grinders" are saying they've been ground down. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have continuous fresh reserves and are amassing soldiers for another counteroffensive.
And unlike claims of a Russian offensive or counteroffensive, the Ukrainian claims often materialize.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 6 2023 20:42 utc | 94
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 6 2023 20:31 utc | 90
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 6 2023 20:42 utc | 95
Clearly USA/UK/Ukraine fight to destroy Russia. The question is how many Russians understand that.
Those rich liberal Russians who fled to Serbia do not care for Russia at all. I think Russia need to punish them financially, at least.
Posted by: srbin | May 6 2023 20:42 utc | 96
@66
projection much ?
perhaps your illiteracy of my handle gives you away
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | May 6 2023 20:45 utc | 97
It’s foolish to suggest that Russia can fight with the combined industrial capacity of Europe and America and many other nations joined to them. And they haven’t even provided Ukraine with advanced weapons yet. It has now become abundantly clear that Russia has fallen into America’s trap.
Posted by: ArmoDude | May 6 2023 17:50 utc | 20
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha...
Biden's PeeWee Herman Administration couldn't get themselves out of a finger trap.
It's abundantly clear the best part of you dribbled down your Mother's leg.
Posted by: kupkee | May 6 2023 20:45 utc | 98
Democrats are out of their mind,
but no one will start a nuclear war.
The change will come from within the USA, very soon.
Posted by: cortomaltese | May 6 2023 19:28 utc | 59
-------------------------------------------------------------
Really? I think you need to pay more attention to some of your brother Republican China Hawks and less to the Democrats who are on their way out.
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/meet-the-gops-new-generation-of-china-hawks/
Posted by: Ed | May 6 2023 20:45 utc | 99
Lolz: "Bloody Russians, coming round here, cooking our weather."
Syrsky again postponed the counteroffensive, the weather changed dramatically and rains are again promised near Bakhmut. The commander of the ground forces is confident that Russian climate weapons are behind the sharp change in weather and an abnormally rainy spring in eastern Ukraine.
#source:
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17635
Posted by: GT Stroller | May 6 2023 20:50 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I dont have a problem with Pregozhin. He and Wagner are a spotlight shining on the institutional Russian Army. They won't be able to hide failure behind an institutional smoke screen. If they have success, they will bank even more credibility.
Pregozhin ruffles feathers, but Wagner serves a purpose in pressing necessary reform on the Russian Army.
I remember when the AFU was attacking in Kherson. I thought that despite the difficult supply situation, the Russians would never withdraw because of the political costs. But Surovikin came along, set the front in order, spoke clearly about intentions, took confident actions and organized a classic withdrawal under fire.
Because of the credibility his competent actions earned, there were no political consequences.
This whole, endless Ukraine offensive deal provides the same opportunity. If the Russian Army fails, there will be no hiding it. If they succeed, they will bank more credibility.
We can only wait and see. Personally I hope for and expect a Russian victory. My prayers go out to the soldiers on both sides whose lives are on the line, but my hearts desire is a crushing Russian victory.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | May 6 2023 16:58 utc | 1